Odd statement from the BBC News correspondent: a declaration is getting close, and there may be a recount. But surely a recount will delay the result by quite a while? Usually it does.
Latest prediction I’m hearing at Mid Beds count is Labour win by about 1,000, not the much bigger 3-4,000 I was told earlier. Still a remarkable victory if correct given Nadine Dorries’ majority in 2019 was 24,664."
Lab 11,719 Con 10,403 ReformUK 1,373 Britain First 580 UKIP 436 Green 417 LD 417 Loony 155 Longman 86
Lab maj 1,316
Electorate 71,302 Total votes 25,586 Turnout 35.88%
Lab 45.80% Con 40.66% ReformUK 5.37% Britain First 2.27% UKIP 1.70% Green 1.63% LD 1.63% Loony 0.61% Longman 0.34%
Sad to see Britain First beating Greens and LDs
LibDems won't be happy to see the BBC name the "three main parties" as Lab, Con and Reform.
But what do the LDs stand for? Why vote for them right now?
They stand for being the party to vote for in Tory/Lib Dem marginals if you want rid of the Cons . And that’s exactly what I’ll be doing in Eastbourne.
A Labour vote here is just enabling the Tories so it has to be Lib Dem .
Seriously though, there are lots of seats across the wider South that will look at Labour as possible winners, that advertising is priceless, as LD will now be squeezed outside their obvious targets.
Hooray! I made a nice little profit on that. Would have wiped my face had Con or LD won, so that's clearly the best possible outcome for the voters of mid Beds.
Just noticed that Labour got fewer votes in Mid Beds than in the last General election.
Turnout only 43%, despite all three parties seemingly throwing the kitchen sink at this constituency for months.
Good result for Labour though, Sunak’s not going to be too happy today. 600 votes the other way, and the narrative would be very different this morning.
Not only a terrible result for the Tories, it’s an excellent result for Labour. Two big swings, delivered on the same day in different parts of country and overcoming a LD challenge in Mid Beds. Promising.
Wow. The Tories really have lost their voters. As much hand sitting as switching, but they all count. We will all get a free owl by Christmas , through the autumn statement. As noted above, GE now nailed on for Jan 2025.
To the doubters amongst you, cast it away. We're heading for a huge Labour General Election victory.
That 13/4 bet on a Labour win 36 hours ago was a very pretty penny. Happy about that. But considerably more happy that the voters of this country are going to exact their revenge on the Conservatives for all their appalling behaviour in recent times.
Amir Weitmann, powerful member of Netanyahu’s Likud party in Israel, went live on Russia Today and, oh Boy, tore into Russia’s stance. I was only waiting for him to step through the screen. What an epic statement.
This is exactly what will resonate in Moscow, especially with Putin.
Wow. The Tories really have lost their voters. As much hand sitting as switching, but they all count. We will all get a free owl by Christmas , through the autumn statement. As noted above, GE now nailed on for Jan 2025.
I'm currently staying with my tory friend in Surrey and we were just discussing it over an early cuppa. She has voted Conservative at every single election since she turned 18.
She will not vote for them next time for the first time in her life.
Nothing to do with me: she is repulsed by the direction they have gone, almost to the point of tears.
January 2025 general election pretty certain now, unless “events” happen.
Well only if that want political suicide.
No one has any money in January. It's dark, cold, it messes up Christmas, New Year/Hogmanay, and it smacks of utter desperation. It's a very very bad look to be clinging to the last minutes of power.
The tories could face a sub-100 seat wipeout if they do it. I think it's exceptionally unlikely because for all his faults I don't think Sunak is that stupid.
Brexit voting patterns are now proving little guide to the parties’ political fortunes. No-one would have believed that Tamworth or mid-Beds could be in play, even at by-elections. In 2019 and 2021 the Brexit realignment looked permanent and ongoing. It doesn’t now.
Just noticed that Labour got fewer votes in Mid Beds than in the last General election.
That's I'm afraid a desperate thing to post...
No, it's not. It's just underlining, given the massive percentage swing, how much the Tory vote has collapsed. What will win Labour a majority at the next election is that the Conservatives own voters have just had enough of them.
The Daily Telegraph are saying that the Mid-Beds result is the largest majority ever overturned.
Is this true?
Also:
Labour’s victories at Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth mean that swings of over 20 percentage points have taken place at eight by-elections in the past three years - a pattern that is unprecedented in recent political history.
Five of the eight swings have occurred in the past four months:
Selby & Ainsty (23.7 points from Conservatives to Labour) Somerton & Frome (29.0 points from Conservatives to the Liberal Democrats) in July Rutherglen & Hamilton West (20.4 points from the SNP to Labour) earlier this month Mid Bedfordshire (20.5 points from Conservatives to Labour) Tamworth (23.9 points from Conservatives to Labour)
The others were Tiverton & Honiton (29.9 points) in June 2022, North Shropshire (34.1 points) in December 2021, and Chesham & Amersham (25.2 points) in June 2021, all from the Conservatives to the Liberal Democrats.
Just noticed that Labour got fewer votes in Mid Beds than in the last General election.
That's I'm afraid a desperate thing to post...
No, it's not. It's just underlining, given the massive percentage swing, how much the Tory vote has collapsed. What will win Labour a majority at the next election is that the Conservatives own voters have just had enough of them.
No it's what sore losers always say after a crushing by-election defeat. You occasionally get it on GE nights too.
There are literally no crumbs of comfort in this for the tories, just as the critics of Keir Starmer might be advised to go away and spend a little time in self-reflection.
Brexit voting patterns are now proving little guide to the parties’ political fortunes. No-one would have believed that Tamworth or mid-Beds could be in play, even at by-elections. In 2019 and 2021 the Brexit realignment looked permanent and ongoing. It doesn’t now.
Brexit voting patterns are now proving little guide to the parties’ political fortunes. No-one would have believed that Tamworth or mid-Beds could be in play, even at by-elections. In 2019 and 2021 the Brexit realignment looked permanent and ongoing. It doesn’t now.
Undoubtedly a very good night for Labour - whether the Tories go down to defeat or wipeout at the GE will depend on whether the Tory voter strike continues or not.
Brexit voting patterns are now proving little guide to the parties’ political fortunes. No-one would have believed that Tamworth or mid-Beds could be in play, even at by-elections. In 2019 and 2021 the Brexit realignment looked permanent and ongoing. It doesn’t now.
I agree - I get the impression that Brexit has lost its salience. I hear it mentioned a lot less than I did when people talk politics. Partly because of time, partly because it's neither got us to the sunlit uplands nor caused catastrophic collapse. It's difficult to feel passionately about mediocrity, especially given all the horror currently happening overseas, and with living standards, which, given similar and worse declines across continental Europe, is obviously unrelated to leaving the EU.
Many more councils in England are at risk of bankruptcy, town hall leaders have warned, as unprecedented financial pressures force local authorities to prepare drastic cuts to services to cope with a collective £4bn deficit.
The bleak message, set out in a letter to the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, said council budgets were “under pressure like never before” because of the rapid deterioration in their finances caused by inflation and soaring demand for social care.
Without an injection of government cash even well-run councils – both Labour and Conservative controlled – were at serious risk of running into financial difficulty over the next 18 months, the Local Government Association (LGA) said.
It said an “inflationary storm” had dramatically widened English councils’ estimated budget gap by an extra £1bn since July alone, with resources outstripped by the soaring costs of child protection, special educational needs and homelessness services
Councils reporting major overspends this autumn are scrambling to meet their legal duty to balance their budgets by next April, typically proposing cuts to “discretionary” spending in areas like bus subsidies, museums, leisure centres, recycling centres and grants to local charities.
Remaining resources are being increasingly focused on coping with huge demand for “core” statutory services such as social care – which accounts on average for 64p in every pound spent by top tier authorities, up from 56p six years ago – and providing temporary accommodation for homeless families.
Brexit voting patterns are now proving little guide to the parties’ political fortunes. No-one would have believed that Tamworth or mid-Beds could be in play, even at by-elections. In 2019 and 2021 the Brexit realignment looked permanent and ongoing. It doesn’t now.
I agree - I get the impression that Brexit has lost its salience. I hear it mentioned a lot less than I did when people talk politics. Partly because of time, partly because it's neither got us to the sunlit uplands nor caused catastrophic collapse. It's difficult to feel passionately about mediocrity, especially given all the horror currently happening overseas, and with living standards, which, given similar and worse declines across continental Europe, is obviously unrelated to leaving the EU.
I don't think that quite hits the spot.
It's not that people think it has lost its salience in the way you turned CV's comment in a different direction, it's that a significant number of people now know it was a mistake. I do hear people referring back to it, but in those terms.
How Carlotta put it was more accurate: it now proves little guide to the parties' political fortunes.
Amir Weitmann, powerful member of Netanyahu’s Likud party in Israel, went live on Russia Today and, oh Boy, tore into Russia’s stance. I was only waiting for him to step through the screen. What an epic statement.
This is exactly what will resonate in Moscow, especially with Putin.
Just noticed that Labour got fewer votes in Mid Beds than in the last General election.
That's I'm afraid a desperate thing to post...
No, it's not. It's just underlining, given the massive percentage swing, how much the Tory vote has collapsed. What will win Labour a majority at the next election is that the Conservatives own voters have just had enough of them.
No it's what sore losers always say after a crushing by-election defeat. You occasionally get it on GE nights too.
There are literally no crumbs of comfort in this for the tories, just as the critics of Keir Starmer might be advised to go away and spend a little time in self-reflection.
Again, you are missing the point - and your ascribing motive to a poster without any real evidence, which is just rude.
One other interesting aspect is that there is an argument that the LibDems competing in some seats might not actually hinder Labour's chances, if they take enough votes from past Tory voters who are reluctant to switch to Labour.
Brexit voting patterns are now proving little guide to the parties’ political fortunes. No-one would have believed that Tamworth or mid-Beds could be in play, even at by-elections. In 2019 and 2021 the Brexit realignment looked permanent and ongoing. It doesn’t now.
I agree - I get the impression that Brexit has lost its salience. I hear it mentioned a lot less than I did when people talk politics. Partly because of time, partly because it's neither got us to the sunlit uplands nor caused catastrophic collapse. It's difficult to feel passionately about mediocrity, especially given all the horror currently happening overseas, and with living standards, which, given similar and worse declines across continental Europe, is obviously unrelated to leaving the EU.
I don't think that quite hits the spot.
It's not that people think it has lost its salience in the way you turned CV's comment in a different direction, it's that a significant number of people now know it was a mistake. I do hear people referring back to it, but in those terms.
How Carlotta put it was more accurate: it now proves little guide to the parties' political fortunes.
It’s lost its salience for (previous or current) supporters, is how the assessment should read. The political position of seeking support because Brexit is somehow under threat or not done properly or not done fully enough has disappeared, now that most people can see the depressing reality, with the Norwegian-style health service promised by the Leave campaign almost a comedy sketch, given how far from reality it remains.
The Libdems will look at the Mid Beds result and should conclude that targeting a maximum of about 40 seats is the correct approach. There should not be a wider campaign.
Kevin McCarthy was not the only Republican to vent fury with Gaetz, the Florida conservative who successfully ousted the House’s leader. The room met Gaetz with booing, profanities and calls to back off, according to multiple lawmakers in the room. When Gaetz refused, Rep. Mike Bost (R-Ill.) stood up and hollered a command at him that one Republican recalled as: “If you don’t sit down, I’ll put you down.”..
...After 16 days adrift, it was clear by Thursday evening that House Republicans have hit rock bottom. What began as social media sniping over their failed speakership battle has devolved into real fears for the safety of members whose families are receiving personal threats over their decision to oppose Jordan...
Just noticed that Labour got fewer votes in Mid Beds than in the last General election.
That's I'm afraid a desperate thing to post...
No, it's not. It's just underlining, given the massive percentage swing, how much the Tory vote has collapsed. What will win Labour a majority at the next election is that the Conservatives own voters have just had enough of them.
That was the story of 1997, the Con vote stayed home just as much as the Lab vote come out for Blair.
Blair added 2m votes compared to Kinnock, but Major lost 4.5m of his 1992 voters.
Comments
Tamworth could go to a recount
We’re told by some of those running the count here in Staffordshire it’s looking very close.
Discussions appear to be under way over whether the Tamworth vote is close enough for a recount.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-67126173
Thanks for the header, Mike !
I like easy reads.
Labour: Mid Beds win would be 'biggest by-election shock in history'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-67126173
Whatever the results tonight, nothing really changes.
Does this sort of thing resonate beyond politco-nerds?
Con 10,403
ReformUK 1,373
Britain First 580
UKIP 436
Green 417
LD 417
Loony 155
Longman 86
Lab maj 1,316
Electorate 71,302
Total votes 25,586
Turnout 35.88%
Lab 45.80%
Con 40.66%
ReformUK 5.37%
Britain First 2.27%
UKIP 1.70%
Green 1.63%
LD 1.63%
Loony 0.61%
Longman 0.34%
Swing, Con to Lab: 23.89%
Result was Lab 45.8%, Con 40.7%, Reform 5.4%. Pleased with that.
@joncraig
Latest prediction I’m hearing at Mid Beds count is Labour win by about 1,000, not the much bigger 3-4,000 I was told earlier. Still a remarkable victory if correct given Nadine Dorries’ majority in 2019 was 24,664."
https://twitter.com/joncraig/status/1715185660951240743
Perhaps the Facebook drama did cost him some votes .
A Labour vote here is just enabling the Tories so it has to be Lib Dem .
Lab 13,872
Con 12,680
LD 9,420
Mackey 1,865
ReformUK 1,487
Green 732
Loony 249
Eng Dem 107
CPA 101
True & Fair 93
Heritage 63
Emp India 27
Mainstream 24
Electorate 92,578
Total votes 40,720
Turnout 43.98%
Lab maj 1,192
Lab 34.07%
Con 31.14%
LD 23.13%
Mackey 4.58%
ReformUK 3.65%
Green 1.80%
Lab maj 2.93%
Swing, Con to Lab: 20.52%
Absolutely catastrophic results for the Conservatives...
Diddy.
SKSFPE.
Great night for Labour and the result in Mid Beds is good for the Lib Dems .
Some Tories won’t cross over to Labour but will to the Lib Dems.
Appears they are also shaking the Bed!
Good result for Labour though, Sunak’s not going to be too happy today. 600 votes the other way, and the narrative would be very different this morning.
Mid Staffs 1990 springs to mind - any others?
To the doubters amongst you, cast it away. We're heading for a huge Labour General Election victory.
That 13/4 bet on a Labour win 36 hours ago was a very pretty penny. Happy about that. But considerably more happy that the voters of this country are going to exact their revenge on the Conservatives for all their appalling behaviour in recent times.
With a turnout at a by-election substantially down you're obviously talking about fewer votes.
These are two HUGE wins for Labour on swings of 23.9% and 20.5%, which come on top of the swing at Rutherglen of 23.6%
Scotland, Midlands, South: all 20%+ swings to Labour.
Watch the video:
Amir Weitmann, powerful member of Netanyahu’s Likud party in Israel, went live on Russia Today and, oh Boy, tore into Russia’s stance. I was only waiting for him to step through the screen. What an epic statement.
This is exactly what will resonate in Moscow, especially with Putin.
#Israel #Russia #Ukraine[VIDEO]
https://x.com/tendar/status/1715091278759637078?s=46&t=eiaG-Nju8t7zgfE3oCmAHA
She will not vote for them next time for the first time in her life.
Nothing to do with me: she is repulsed by the direction they have gone, almost to the point of tears.
I see that leaked memo from the Tories 2 days back was spot on. Not many direct vote switchers but rather a refusal to turn out.
Well done Labour!
No one has any money in January. It's dark, cold, it messes up Christmas, New Year/Hogmanay, and it smacks of utter desperation. It's a very very bad look to be clinging to the last minutes of power.
The tories could face a sub-100 seat wipeout if they do it. I think it's exceptionally unlikely because for all his faults I don't think Sunak is that stupid.
Brexit voting patterns are now proving little guide to the parties’ political fortunes. No-one would have believed that Tamworth or mid-Beds could be in play, even at by-elections. In 2019 and 2021 the Brexit realignment looked permanent and ongoing. It doesn’t now.
https://x.com/lewis_goodall/status/1715204941734678949?s=20
It's just underlining, given the massive percentage swing, how much the Tory vote has collapsed.
What will win Labour a majority at the next election is that the Conservatives own voters have just had enough of them.
Is this true?
Also:
Labour’s victories at Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth mean that swings of over 20 percentage points have taken place at eight by-elections in the past three years - a pattern that is unprecedented in recent political history.
Five of the eight swings have occurred in the past four months:
Selby & Ainsty (23.7 points from Conservatives to Labour)
Somerton & Frome (29.0 points from Conservatives to the Liberal Democrats) in July
Rutherglen & Hamilton West (20.4 points from the SNP to Labour) earlier this month
Mid Bedfordshire (20.5 points from Conservatives to Labour)
Tamworth (23.9 points from Conservatives to Labour)
The others were Tiverton & Honiton (29.9 points) in June 2022, North Shropshire (34.1 points) in December 2021, and Chesham & Amersham (25.2 points) in June 2021, all from the Conservatives to the Liberal Democrats.
There are literally no crumbs of comfort in this for the tories, just as the critics of Keir Starmer might be advised to go away and spend a little time in self-reflection.
Sunak is doomed to go down in history with the Brexit albatross around his neck.
Punishing the Tories for Brexit (and the fiasco of how they went about it) will be an overdue pleasure.
https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-tories-braced-for-challenging-night-as-counting-under-way-in-double-by-election-test-12593360?postid=6631166#liveblog-body
So all that red meat chucked at the XL Bully party by the Tory culture warriors at their conference did them no good with their target audience.
Many more councils in England are at risk of bankruptcy, town hall leaders have warned, as unprecedented financial pressures force local authorities to prepare drastic cuts to services to cope with a collective £4bn deficit.
The bleak message, set out in a letter to the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, said council budgets were “under pressure like never before” because of the rapid deterioration in their finances caused by inflation and soaring demand for social care.
Without an injection of government cash even well-run councils – both Labour and Conservative controlled – were at serious risk of running into financial difficulty over the next 18 months, the Local Government Association (LGA) said.
It said an “inflationary storm” had dramatically widened English councils’ estimated budget gap by an extra £1bn since July alone, with resources outstripped by the soaring costs of child protection, special educational needs and homelessness services
Councils reporting major overspends this autumn are scrambling to meet their legal duty to balance their budgets by next April, typically proposing cuts to “discretionary” spending in areas like bus subsidies, museums, leisure centres, recycling centres and grants to local charities.
Remaining resources are being increasingly focused on coping with huge demand for “core” statutory services such as social care – which accounts on average for 64p in every pound spent by top tier authorities, up from 56p six years ago – and providing temporary accommodation for homeless families.
It's not that people think it has lost its salience in the way you turned CV's comment in a different direction, it's that a significant number of people now know it was a mistake. I do hear people referring back to it, but in those terms.
How Carlotta put it was more accurate: it now proves little guide to the parties' political fortunes.
Meanwhile, in other WWIII news, drones attacked US air bases in Iraq and Syria yesterday.
https://thepostmillennial.com/us-military-bases-in-iraq-syria-targeted-in-drone-attack-injuries-reported
One other interesting aspect is that there is an argument that the LibDems competing in some seats might not actually hinder Labour's chances, if they take enough votes from past Tory voters who are reluctant to switch to Labour.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/19/house-gop-speaker-mccarthy-gaetz-00122617
When Matt Gaetz stepped to the microphones during Thursday’s three-hour private House GOP meeting on the speakership, the speaker he ousted promptly yelled at him to “sit down.”
Kevin McCarthy was not the only Republican to vent fury with Gaetz, the Florida conservative who successfully ousted the House’s leader. The room met Gaetz with booing, profanities and calls to back off, according to multiple lawmakers in the room. When Gaetz refused, Rep. Mike Bost (R-Ill.) stood up and hollered a command at him that one Republican recalled as: “If you don’t sit down, I’ll put you down.”..
...After 16 days adrift, it was clear by Thursday evening that House Republicans have hit rock bottom. What began as social media sniping over their failed speakership battle has devolved into real fears for the safety of members whose families are receiving personal threats over their decision to oppose Jordan...
Blair added 2m votes compared to Kinnock, but Major lost 4.5m of his 1992 voters.
How GB would vote if the Mid Bedfordshire By-Election swing was repeated across the country:
LAB: 480 (+284)
LDM: 104 (+96)
CON: 20 (-356)
SNP: 23 (-25)
PLC: 3 (+1)
GRN: 1 (=)
Labour Majority: 310
Changes w/ GE2019 Notional.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1715211956980785483?t=jVX-zyQfOSxIOAg2updYKQ&s=19
Tories 4th largest party in the Commons.