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It’s the housing costs, stupid? – politicalbetting.com

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    The Israeli army has reportedly loosened its rules of engagement ahead of the expected ground invasion into the north of the Gaza Strip, amid heightened concerns over the level of civilian casualties the offensive could cause.

    Three unnamed senior Israeli military officers told the New York Times that the loosened rules will allow Israeli soldiers to make fewer checks before shooting at suspected enemies.

    Hardly surprising or controversial, that just seems like common sense and inevitable even to someone like me with a terrible record at laser quest. Greater risk and more volatility should mean looser rules of engagement compared to a relatively more stable situation.
    How will they tell the difference from their previous approach?

    'RAMALLAH, 18 Sept 2023 - At least 38 Palestinian children have been killed by Israeli forces in the occupied West Bank so far in 2023, making it the deadliest year since records began, said Save the Children.'

    https://www.savethechildren.net/news/2023-marks-deadliest-year-record-children-occupied-west-bank
    Indeed but according to some on here if you raise things like this you are an anti-semite.
    No, you can entirely legitimately criticise Israel without being an antisemite.

    If you blame Israel for the actions of Hamas, then you're being antisemitic.

    If you say that Israel uniquely of all nations is not permitted to defend itself while at war, then you're being antisemitic.

    If you say that Israel, rather than Hamas, are responsible for Gazan civilian deaths, then you're antisemitic.

    Afterall Hamas started the conflict, Hamas are using civilians as human shields (which is a war crime) and Israel is the only one doing what it can to avoid civilian deaths, such as warning civilians to get out of the area so they don't get caught in the conflict.

    Israel is at war and is entirely legitimately able to seek to destroy Hamas after it started this war. It needs to do so proportionately, which means trying to reduce civilian deaths as much as is reasonably possible - which is what it is doing. But Hamas are using civilians as human shields, so civilians are going to die - thanks to Hamas.
    So why should we expect it to do any of that during a war when they have singularly failed to do so during a peace.
    There was never a peace, but they have done so.

    Hamas have been killing people and using children as human shields. Hamas show as much of a disregard for "its own" citizens lives as it does for Jewish children's lives.

    Why do you blame Israel for Hamas using children as human shields?
    If you think that then I have a bridge to sell you. Actually no. You know that is not true but you are happy to just lie about it to support your genocidal views.
    Its not a lie, I do believe it.

    Do you deny that Hamas are using civilians as human shields?
    Not in the West Bank which is where we were discussing. And yet still the Israelis are killing children there.
    Sorry, I didn't realise you meant the West Bank. Ok, in the West Bank its Fatah more than Hamas using West Bank children as human shields.

    Were you under the misapprehension there's no violence coming from the West Bank? Were you naïve enough to think Israel is killing people unprovoked just for the fun of it?
    No, I believe they just don't care. I believe that in the West Bank they install illegal settlements and then provoke the Palestinains into protests during which they shoot them.

    Israel are involved in ethnic cleansing of the Palestinians. They want them gone and are happy to kill to acheve it.

    Does this in anyway excuse, absolve or even explain Hamas and their attacks? No. There are no excuses for that.

    Does that in turn mean we should just give Israel a blank cheque and let them do what they want? Again no. They cannot be allowed to use the attacks of last week as an excuse for stepping up their ethnic cleansing.
    The right wing religious crazies in Israel have been a problem for a long time. Like their muslim opponents they believe they were given the land by God and that smiting the non-believer is a holy task.

    So many Israeli governments have provided succour to this madness - and Netayahu openly encourages it for political reasons. The criticism and condemnation of these actions and these governments is entirely justified. And in recent times a popular Israeli pasttime.

    The problem is with the term "ethnic cleansing". Both sides claim the land. So someone is getting "cleansed". There is no way to find a compromise deal now, we are too far down the rabbit hole.

    This mess could have rumbled along for another few decades with little change. But then Iran / Hamas decided to go for it. And here we are. Like you, I give no blank cheque to the Israeli government. Innocent life is innocent regardless of faith.
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    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,285

    kyf_100 said:

    darkage said:

    Re the housing situation - I would repeat my regular comment that, in any analysis of housing, you need to factor in build costs. They are at the highest level that has ever been known in the industry. Until they come down it will heavily constrain what is possible in terms of housebuilding even with the greatest political will possible to see new development come forward. There are also major problems of capacity and skill shortages.

    A major cost is the cost of labour. Both direct - on site, and indirect - manufacture and supply of materials.

    A major component of the cost of labour is… drum roll… the cost of housing. Which feeds through to wages.
    I have posted this article a couple of times before, but since it's directly relevant to the thread header, here we go again:

    The Housing Theory of Everything - https://worksinprogress.co/issue/the-housing-theory-of-everything

    Expensive housing affects everything, from productivity and innovation to the birth rate and, as you say, expensive housing even makes building more houses more expensive.
    Expensive, non-discretionary goods makes living costs high. High living costs lead to everything being expensive.

    Economists faint in shock.
    Agree.

    What I love about that article is how it quantifies (and sources) everything in one convenient place. An estimated 8.9% GDP hit in the US, an estimated 157,000 fewer children born in the UK since 1996. And so on.

    I know Dodgy Dave was supposedly a lurker here, but on the off chance Rishi or one of his underlings is about, this is the one thing absolutely every politician needs to read.

    The economy is broken because the housing market is broken. Fix that, and you can at least make a start on everything else.

    Rishi's "motorist's friend" ploy was shallow, opportunistic bullshit. Any political party that made fixing the housing market the main plank of their manifesto would win my vote.

    Lots of vague promises from Labour at the moment, with many already suggesting their housebuilding goals are unachievable.

    But as TSE says, homeowners become Conservative voters. That the Conservative Party has absolutely no suggestions on how to fix the housing market is utterly baffling... at least until you remember they're the Pensioner Party now.
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    Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,596
    edited October 2023
    On topic: I hope TSE is right about UK politicians being punished for high housing costs. But that happens less often than I would like here in the US.

    For example: In this area (Seattle and most suburbs) housing is far more expensive because, decades ago, we passed a growth management act, which essentially limited new building to Seattle and older suburbs. That did little harm until the surge of population came with the Amazon boom. And then housing costs soared. One consequence that I can see on my own block is that small, older houses, get torn down, and replaced by larger ones, so there is building but no net increase in supply.

    And which politician is most responsible for the act? Probably Maria Cantwell, our junior senator, who has been "punished" by being elected to the US House, elected to the Senate, re-elected, re-elected, and re-elected. (She has probably gained at least a million dollars from owning a home, during that period.)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maria_Cantwell#Electoral_history

    The example of California is better known. I can't think of any politician there who has been punished for the high cost of housing in the state -- even though many voters have fled the state, partly because of those costs.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 49,097
    Penddu2 said:

    After yesterdays enthralling matches in RWC in which my predictions were 0/2 (although in fairness I did say the Ireland NZ would be close and NZ could pinch it), it will soon be time to go all over again.

    For the record I predicted a France win by +6 and an unpredictable England Fiji game. I think that England will initially play a tight kicking game which will ease them into an early lead - but where Fiji just run right back at them - and over them. England's selection decisions look 'brave' - they could turn out to be inspirational....but maybe not. Fiji by +10.

    #cymrudrua

    0% accuracy is fairly poor. You are no longer seen as a rugby guru in my household

    I think both northern nations will edge these games, in contrast to yesterday

    The final will be France v Kiwis and j expect France to win quite comfortably. The All Blacks played their one great performance yesterday, to overcome a superior Ireland side
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,131
    Sandpit - the Saudis are furious.

    So what was the immediate response to the appalling Hamas attacks? To call time on their peace talks with Israel. At the same time no change regards their re-engagement with Iran. Also co-ordinating oil production cuts with Russia. If they are furious they have a funny way of showing it.
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    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,285

    According to an ad I've just seen, the RSPCA are now doing a free will-writing service.

    That seems rather... dodgy to me. From a quick Google, it looks as though many charities are doing it.

    Free will is just an illusion, as Spinoza wrote.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761

    Good job England bat deep....

    It takes me 15m to walk from home to the pub, and that was enough for Bairstow to have had enough.
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    NEW THREAD

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    maxhmaxh Posts: 931

    maxh said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    Reflecting on the Israel / Gaza situation, I think the closest (and not necessarily *very* close) analogue I can find is the 1982 Israeli Invasion of Lebanon, which resulted in the PLO Armed Forces being expelled from Lebanon.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1982_Lebanon_War

    And also the killing of 2000 civilians in the Sabra and Shatila camps by forces under the supervision of the Israelis

    We have to go back 4 decades to this atrocity to find one on a bigger scale than the Hamas atrocities of last weekend.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sabra_and_Shatila_massacre

    Interesting that you highlight the role of the Israelis (“under the supervision”) but choose not to mention the Lebanese perpetrators of the massacre.

    Why is that?
    The massacre was by Christian militias but the camps were surrounded by IDF troops who knew what was going on and indirectly responsible.

    That is what the Israeli government found in its enquiry, and why Ariel Sharon resigned as Defence Minister
    *Indirectly* responsible.

    Most people who don’t have an instinctive bias against the Israelis blame Hobeika.

    (Sharon resigned as defence minister but remained in the cabinet, IIRC)
    From the article:
    The IDF had ordered the militia to clear out the fighters of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) from Sabra and Shatila as part of a larger Israeli maneuver into western Beirut.
    If accurate, Foxy’s description seems balanced, not biased, though I agree it would have been helpful to clarify the
    Lebanese forces’ role.
    No - guilt by omission

    The IDF told the Lebanese Forces to clear out the PLO. They did not order them to massacre civilians.

    Foxy chose to state the Israelis were responsible (he only clarified the “indirectly” when challenged).

    They should have intervened when they heard the rumours. I haven’t seen the original intelligence reports, so can’t assess whether that was deliberate vs the intelligence being poor quality (“fog of war”). But the Israeli government commission held they bore part of the blame and Sharon was forced (unwillingly) to resign as Defence Secretary.

    Foxy has a bit of a blind spot when it comes to apportioning blame between the Israelis and their enemies.
    Just caught up, thanks for the explanation.
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    According to an ad I've just seen, the RSPCA are now doing a free will-writing service.

    That seems rather... dodgy to me. From a quick Google, it looks as though many charities are doing it.

    How much does a simple will cost to draw up? You probably don't have to nudge very hard to get people to remember their favourite charity for it to be a decent moneyspinner.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,899

    According to an ad I've just seen, the RSPCA are now doing a free will-writing service.

    That seems rather... dodgy to me. From a quick Google, it looks as though many charities are doing it.

    How much does a simple will cost to draw up? You probably don't have to nudge very hard to get people to remember their favourite charity for it to be a decent moneyspinner.
    No obligation to leave anything to the Cruelty, mind.
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,652

    According to an ad I've just seen, the RSPCA are now doing a free will-writing service.

    That seems rather... dodgy to me. From a quick Google, it looks as though many charities are doing it.

    This has been happening for many years, even decades.
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    Leon said:

    Penddu2 said:

    After yesterdays enthralling matches in RWC in which my predictions were 0/2 (although in fairness I did say the Ireland NZ would be close and NZ could pinch it), it will soon be time to go all over again.

    For the record I predicted a France win by +6 and an unpredictable England Fiji game. I think that England will initially play a tight kicking game which will ease them into an early lead - but where Fiji just run right back at them - and over them. England's selection decisions look 'brave' - they could turn out to be inspirational....but maybe not. Fiji by +10.

    #cymrudrua

    0% accuracy is fairly poor. You are no longer seen as a rugby guru in my household

    I think both northern nations will edge these games, in contrast to yesterday

    The final will be France v Kiwis and j expect France to win quite comfortably. The All Blacks played their one great performance yesterday, to overcome a superior Ireland side
    Hey, I was fancying France well before you did! 😁
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    MattWMattW Posts: 19,423

    According to an ad I've just seen, the RSPCA are now doing a free will-writing service.

    That seems rather... dodgy to me. From a quick Google, it looks as though many charities are doing it.

    This has been happening for many years, even decades.
    Free Will Month is October, and the RSPCA seem to be on the front foot but with no declared obligation to them. Their service delivers a will in the post.

    I think it can be done using a local solicitor face to face - for example that is one of the options offered by Diabetes UK.
    https://www.diabetes.org.uk/get_involved/ways-to-donate/leaving-a-legacy/free-wills-month
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,471

    malcolmg said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    The Israel/Gaza conflict has the potential to entirely upend our politics, and render worthy questions - like this threader - sadly irrelevant

    Hope I’m wrong. But in a few weeks or months we might see regular terror attacks in Europe - including the UK - and something like civil strife in big European cities

    What will that do the election? Change the narrative entirely. But it might not benefit the Tories

    No, it really doesn't.

    As ugly as it is, its a distant war that is never going to affect household budgets as much as housing costs do.

    Housing is the number one priority issue in this country today, by far. The only people who think otherwise, are those fortunate enough not to need to worry about paying rent or now not needing to worry about remortgaging either.
    No it isn't. Housing is in 5th place behind: The Economy, Health, Immigration and Environment.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/trackers/the-most-important-issues-facing-the-country
    But it is our attitudes to property and housing which have damaged the economy.
    In many areas of the country, the dominant spending out of people’s income is housing.

    Whether rented or paying the mortgage.

    If the cost of housing halved, millions of people would have more money to spend on other stuff. They could even afford to pay more tax, if that’s what floats your boat.
    If my granny had testicles she could be my granpa, just as likely and as sensible.
    If the cost of housing halved, it would still be nearly 50% higher than it was in the early 90s, relative to income.

    The cost of housing needs to plummet relative to income, to have a healthy economy. Doing so will be disruptive, but disruption is sometimes necessary.

    A few years of healthy inflation and income growth, means nominal price falls won't need to be as high to correct the market.
    Not a big deal for me but will crucify an awful lot of people. Anybody that needs to move will be done for, so hits job mobility etc
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