A few days ago TSE asked about a bet stating when the railway line at Dawlish would be reopened, and I rather optimistically stated the second week in March if there was no further damage. However, over the weekend there was further storm damage and another few metres of wall was lost. It therefore looks as though the line may not reopen until Easter.
Sorry if my optimism cost anyone money. :-(
As an aside, the power of the waves there is quite astonishing. They placed containers on the sea wall toe to protect the breach, and these are now looking rather bent and battered.
@Carnyx - "The intervention by a senior Coalition figure (who? Rifkind? Clarke?) that a Yes vote doesn't necessarily mean yes, and they'll regard it as a no as long as they like."
I am not sure that this is what the source said, is it? I can see why the Yes side would want to portray it in that way, but it seemed to me that what was actually being stated is that until both sides can reach an agreement on independence the status quo will pertain. That seems pretty self evident to me and not really something to get too furious about.
The Guardian regularly prints a variety of opinions on independence, so again there is nothing very unusual in the article that you link to. If the SNP wants to believe that all 28 EU member states will agree to Scotland becoming a member of the EU on the date that independence occurs then that is fine. Barrosso disagrees. My guess is that Spain will too. It may not object to Scottish membership, but it has made clear time and again that from its perspective an application would need to be submitted once Scotland became independent. Here, for example:
This may end up at the European Court. But that will also take time.
As for Balls. There are plenty of things that him and Osborne agree on: membership of the Euro, for example. His intervention seems to have made no difference to labour's opinion poll scores.
However, if all that the last week does is to drive people into the Yes camp - what is the problem? At least people cannot say they were not warned should it turn out that what Osborne and Barroso have said is the reality. My suspicion, though, is that what will actually happen is that there will be a sterling currency union on terms dictated by the rUK, but that Scotland will not become an EU member state on independence. We shall see.
Just to say thanks for the reasoned comments - most interesting. I thought that Spain had made it clear it would not bject, but it depends who is I/c at the time ...
@Carnyx - "The intervention by a senior Coalition figure (who? Rifkind? Clarke?) that a Yes vote doesn't necessarily mean yes, and they'll regard it as a no as long as they like."
I am not sure that this is what the source said, is it? I can see why the Yes side would want to portray it in that way, but it seemed to me that what was actually being stated is that until both sides can reach an agreement on independence the status quo will pertain. That seems pretty self evident to me and not really something to get too furious about.
The Guardian regularly prints a variety of opinions on independence, so again there is nothing very unusual in the article that you link to. If the SNP wants to believe that all 28 EU member states will agree to Scotland becoming a member of the EU on the date that independence occurs then that is fine. Barrosso disagrees. My guess is that Spain will too. It may not object to Scottish membership, but it has made clear time and again that from its perspective an application would need to be submitted once Scotland became independent. Here, for example:
This may end up at the European Court. But that will also take time.
As for Balls. There are plenty of things that him and Osborne agree on: membership of the Euro, for example. His intervention seems to have made no difference to labour's opinion poll scores.
However, if all that the last week does is to drive people into the Yes camp - what is the problem? At least people cannot say they were not warned should it turn out that what Osborne and Barroso have said is the reality. My suspicion, though, is that what will actually happen is that there will be a sterling currency union on terms dictated by the rUK, but that Scotland will not become an EU member state on independence. We shall see.
Just to say thanks for the reasoned comments - most interesting. I thought that Spain had made it clear it would not bject, but it depends who is I/c at the time ...
Abd I forgot to say yes, you have a point re yes/no, but it was the way in which it was spoken and presented at the time that upset a lot of people - judging from radio talk ins and a friend of mine I use as a barometer of middle of the range. As you say, nous verrons.
It'll be interesting to see whether he actually does this, or just goes tub-thumping with slogans. It's also worth noting that a currency union requires both parties to agree, it's not something solely in the gift of the Scottish people. I wonder whether that will be acknowledged.
How about this as a revised draft of todays speech by Salmond:
However, not all is bleak, we can set up the Scots Pound after agreeing a two/three year transition with London, (during which time we'll agree to run our budget past them for approval), and if we're responsibly fiscally (no really, really, not just pretending we will be), after a probable little discount devaluation against Sterling we'll probably rub along at about parity, might involve slightly higher interest rates but nothing too scary. This does however, mean we'll have to be careful with a declining oil revenue and make sure we put a bit away for a rainy day, and contrary to expectations public spending won't increase and might have to be trimmed a bit. ( No free unicorns pooing tartan chocolate on every street corner in Airdrie I'm afraid kids). We should really save a bit on defence as we only need a few fishery vessels (not much use for 8% of an aircraft carrier really), and I doubt we'll need sophisticated jet fighters.
There we are, a real independent country, that can pay its way, tailor its public services as it wants and not how those nasty money grabbing so and so's in the Home Counties want, its own currency, friendly relations with England ("a good neighbour, not a surly lodger" I think A Salmond once said).
Interesting reality on the BBC Scotland "call in" this morning on Barosso EU propaganda from yesterday. Almost everybody was irate and said it was rubbish, Better Together spokesperson slunk off early on after his lies were repudiated and the straw poll on voting was, 2 voting NO all the rest voting YES, so about 80% to 20% being very very generous.
That the YES supporters are noiser is not up for debate is it ?
So you are saying that NO voters are in hiding then. I think not.
As an aside, the power of the waves there is quite astonishing. They placed containers on the sea wall toe to protect the breach, and these are now looking rather bent and battered.
It'll be interesting to see whether he actually does this, or just goes tub-thumping with slogans. It's also worth noting that a currency union requires both parties to agree, it's not something solely in the gift of the Scottish people. I wonder whether that will be acknowledged.
How about this as a revised draft of todays speech by Salmond:
However, not all is bleak, we can set up the Scots Pound after agreeing a two/three year transition with London, (during which time we'll agree to run our budget past them for approval), and if we're responsibly fiscally (no really, really, not just pretending we will be), after a probable little discount devaluation against Sterling we'll probably rub along at about parity, might involve slightly higher interest rates but nothing too scary. This does however, mean we'll have to be careful with a declining oil revenue and make sure we put a bit away for a rainy day, and contrary to expectations public spending won't increase and might have to be trimmed a bit. ( No free unicorns pooing tartan chocolate on every street corner in Airdrie I'm afraid kids). We should really save a bit on defence as we only need a few fishery vessels (not much use for 8% of an aircraft carrier really), and I doubt we'll need sophisticated jet fighters.
There we are, a real independent country, that can pay its way, tailor its public services as it wants and not how those nasty money grabbing so and so's in the Home Counties want, its own currency, friendly relations with England ("a good neighbour, not a surly lodger" I think A Salmond once said).
Interesting reality on the BBC Scotland "call in" this morning on Barosso EU propaganda from yesterday. Almost everybody was irate and said it was rubbish, Better Together spokesperson slunk off early on after his lies were repudiated and the straw poll on voting was, 2 voting NO all the rest voting YES, so about 80% to 20% being very very generous.
Malcolm is there a tiny part of you that fears a YES may indeed be followed by full independence - from Sterling, from the EU, from the markets, etc? What if they aren't joking?
patrick, It would indeed be my preference on currency , though it will need an intermediate phase whilst we untangle institutions. EU will never keep us out, just not feasible and why would Scotland be the only small country in the world that the markets would not want to deal with, they will take anyone's money and in fact defaulting Iceland gets better terms than the UK.
Sorry Malcolm G meant to quote you in previous post, but I had a case of fat fingers! Sorry
No problem. On your post , the issue is the blatant propaganda of BBC bringing on Barosso and allowing him to compare Scotland to Kosovo, Marr like the unionist lapdog he is did not even open his mouth. Why do they never invite other people who would say it is very reasonable to expect Scotland to be waved through etc, it is always their pet Barosso and is pure unionist / BBC skull duggery. Also teh way Osborne came up here , said we were nothing to do with the pound and would not deign to answer any questions said it all. These people have no clue how to behave.
How about this as a revised draft of todays speech by Salmond:
However, not all is bleak, we can set up the Scots Pound after agreeing a two/three year transition with London, (during which time we'll agree to run our budget past them for approval), and if we're responsibly fiscally (no really, really, not just pretending we will be), after a probable little discount devaluation against Sterling we'll probably rub along at about parity, might involve slightly higher interest rates but nothing too scary. This does however, mean we'll have to be careful with a declining oil revenue and make sure we put a bit away for a rainy day, and contrary to expectations public spending won't increase and might have to be trimmed a bit. ( No free unicorns pooing tartan chocolate on every street corner in Airdrie I'm afraid kids). We should really save a bit on defence as we only need a few fishery vessels (not much use for 8% of an aircraft carrier really), and I doubt we'll need sophisticated jet fighters.
There we are, a real independent country, that can pay its way, tailor its public services as it wants and not how those nasty money grabbing so and so's in the Home Counties want, its own currency, friendly relations with England ("a good neighbour, not a surly lodger" I think A Salmond once said).
It will have a large rump of variously disgruntled No voters to placate anyway, it does not need a block of folk who've been swung on what turns out to be a mistaken view of bluffing.
What happens 5 years down the line, post any theoretical Independence, when the SNP fall out of favour, and the majority are clamouring to rejoin rUK?
True , history has shown many examples of countries who on gaining independence were desperate to get back. Care to name one.
Comments
A few days ago TSE asked about a bet stating when the railway line at Dawlish would be reopened, and I rather optimistically stated the second week in March if there was no further damage. However, over the weekend there was further storm damage and another few metres of wall was lost. It therefore looks as though the line may not reopen until Easter.
Sorry if my optimism cost anyone money. :-(
As an aside, the power of the waves there is quite astonishing. They placed containers on the sea wall toe to protect the breach, and these are now looking rather bent and battered.
http://www.networkrail.co.uk/timetables-and-travel/storm-damage/dawlish/
Also teh way Osborne came up here , said we were nothing to do with the pound and would not deign to answer any questions said it all. These people have no clue how to behave.
True , history has shown many examples of countries who on gaining independence were desperate to get back. Care to name one.