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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lib Dem deposit losses at the General Election

SystemSystem Posts: 12,214
edited February 2014 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lib Dem deposit losses at the General Election

The above graph shows just how badly the Lib Dems have done, all bar one, their share of the vote has fallen, it was only in the unique circumstances behind the Oldham East and Saddleworth by election that could explain the increase.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • First!
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Second! Currently nursing a very ill and much loved pet, our old boy Jasper, the cat who is my avatar.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited February 2014
    It is also true to say that unlike the Tories and UKIP the LDs have won a by-election in this parliament..

    You might also note that that victory, whilst being a party of government, is something that the Tories last achieved in 1989. Every single blue defence since then had ended in failure.

    Vote shares are irrelevant.

    I agree on the betting analysis. The LDs will lose a lot of deposits where it doesn't matter. In seats where it does, it will hold on.

    In fact there is only one seat, Berwick, where the bookies make the Tories favourite to take a seat off the yellows.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited February 2014
    You might also do an analysis of Tory vote shares in by-elections in this parliament. In every seat this has been down unlike their coalition partners which has in one seat seen an increase.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    Completely O/T and apologies for doing so, so soon but I've had a thought.

    Couldn't we engineer the Scottish referendum into some sort of reverse referendum on membership of the EU? If we enable Scotland to be the primary part of the UK then a YES vote would mean the rUK would be the one that had to leave the EU, not Scotland. In addition we could create a new currency, pounds shillings and pence anyone? Plus we could right off the sterling denominated debt or leave it behind for independent Scotland to sort out.

    There all the difficult issues resolved :-)
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Mike, when it comes to winning by elections, you might also like to note that the last two the Tories gained in the last Parliament, they hung onto unlike the SNP or the Libdem's. Just saying.

    It is also true to say that unlike the Tories and UKIP the LDs have won a by-election in this parliament..

    You might also note that that victory, whilst being a party of government, is something that the Tories last achieved in 1989. Every single blue defence since then had ended in failure.

    Vote shares are irrelevant.

    I agree on the betting analysis. The LDs will lose a lot of deposits where it doesn't matter. In seats where it does, it will hold on.

    In fact there is only one seat, Berwick, where the bookies make the Tories favourite to take a seat off the yellows.

  • On the last thread: Howard would not get confirmed by the European Parliament. On this thread: will the LDs still run everywhere in the country in the next GE? Might they, even more than UKIP, be in the business of {perhaps unspoken} deals?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    I think the 2015 election is very hard to call, or maybe my preferences make me unwilling to see the likely outcome.

    As Mike says below, the LibDems will shed loads of useless votes, although I differ from Mike and don't see them as 'No value' or 'Wasted' votes. If the LibDems go from a party of 23% to a party of 16%, they will lose some legitimacy, regardless of seat totals.

    Through the fog of my mind (which I should be used to now as it has the clarity of pea soup most of the time), I want to see a Tory revival, but I really don't see where it is going to come from. They may pick up a percent or three to get to mid or just above mid 30s, but not high enough. And Labour? Well, they will get mid 30s or just below. This really will be the election in which all three established parties are seen as equally unattractive, and I think there is good reason for the electorate to be cynical about all three.

    I'm on a quick trip to Australia (arrived Saturday, leave Thursday). There is a salutary lesson on how outside forces can influence your economy. Since the election here I am told that Holden (owned by GM) have announced they are ceasing production in Australia in 2015 - 17. As have Ford and Toyota. There will be no car manufacture in the country, three announcements form three foreign owned corporations and your manufacturing output, balance of payments and employment in an productive sector are put in jeopardy. I don't know if these actions are as a result of the plans of the incoming government, but if true, it will be painful for Australia, and a reminder to the rest of us how we are not masters of our own destiny in many ways.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,469
    philiph said:

    I think the 2015 election is very hard to call, or maybe my preferences make me unwilling to see the likely outcome.

    As Mike says below, the LibDems will shed loads of useless votes, although I differ from Mike and don't see them as 'No value' or 'Wasted' votes. If the LibDems go from a party of 23% to a party of 16%, they will lose some legitimacy, regardless of seat totals.

    Through the fog of my mind (which I should be used to now as it has the clarity of pea soup most of the time), I want to see a Tory revival, but I really don't see where it is going to come from. They may pick up a percent or three to get to mid or just above mid 30s, but not high enough. And Labour? Well, they will get mid 30s or just below. This really will be the election in which all three established parties are seen as equally unattractive, and I think there is good reason for the electorate to be cynical about all three.

    I'm on a quick trip to Australia (arrived Saturday, leave Thursday). There is a salutary lesson on how outside forces can influence your economy. Since the election here I am told that Holden (owned by GM) have announced they are ceasing production in Australia in 2015 - 17. As have Ford and Toyota. There will be no car manufacture in the country, three announcements form three foreign owned corporations and your manufacturing output, balance of payments and employment in an productive sector are put in jeopardy. I don't know if these actions are as a result of the plans of the incoming government, but if true, it will be painful for Australia, and a reminder to the rest of us how we are not masters of our own destiny in many ways.

    Aussie carmaking has gone because of economies of scale and market forces. From what I've read recently (the Economist?) the indigenous market is fairly small (1.1 million cars per annum) compared to the UK's 2.26 million in 2013. Worse, the most popular cars in Australia are not the ones made in the country.

    To make matters worse, because of low production, the local small parts suppliers are not competitive either, meaning that they cost more. All in all, it seems that it is much cheaper to import cars.

    It's been a long time coming as well - ISTR one of the manufacturers made their announcement a couple of years ago. So I'd not really blame a government of whatever stripe: they cannot blame their geographical position in the world, the size of their market, or consumer choice.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Very soon all the lost lost deposits will start to add up and calamity Clegg will need some kind of trustworthy donor to help them out of their hole.
    Teddy Mcnabb ?@McnabbTeddy Feb 15

    Lib Dem donor jailed for fleeing £8m fraud trial http://gu.com/p/38hh2/tw via @guardian @LibDems been visiting your mate :) #birdsofafeather
    Or plunge them into a fresh new hole.
    Ian Geldard ?@igeldard Feb 15

    Major £1 million Lib Dem donor at the centre of bribes probe wined and dined by Nick Clegg http://dailym.ai/1f3Nw2z pic.twitter.com/eF5XirAAkd
    Every lost deposit is a sign of complete irrelevance in the area where it occurs. It also signifies an annihilation of the base for that party where it happens if before there was a vote which was nowhere near losing a deposit. Those seats and areas are effectively being written off by Clegg's ostrich faction of spinners for far longer than just a few years.

    The simple truth is that the less lib dem MPs there are the less chance there is of a hung parliament. That is, after all, why the lib dems want to get rid of FPTP.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    philiph said:

    I think the 2015 election is very hard to call, or maybe my preferences make me unwilling to see the likely outcome.

    As Mike says below, the LibDems will shed loads of useless votes, although I differ from Mike and don't see them as 'No value' or 'Wasted' votes. If the LibDems go from a party of 23% to a party of 16%, they will lose some legitimacy, regardless of seat totals.

    Through the fog of my mind (which I should be used to now as it has the clarity of pea soup most of the time), I want to see a Tory revival, but I really don't see where it is going to come from. They may pick up a percent or three to get to mid or just above mid 30s, but not high enough. And Labour? Well, they will get mid 30s or just below. This really will be the election in which all three established parties are seen as equally unattractive, and I think there is good reason for the electorate to be cynical about all three.

    I'm on a quick trip to Australia (arrived Saturday, leave Thursday). There is a salutary lesson on how outside forces can influence your economy. Since the election here I am told that Holden (owned by GM) have announced they are ceasing production in Australia in 2015 - 17. As have Ford and Toyota. There will be no car manufacture in the country, three announcements form three foreign owned corporations and your manufacturing output, balance of payments and employment in an productive sector are put in jeopardy. I don't know if these actions are as a result of the plans of the incoming government, but if true, it will be painful for Australia, and a reminder to the rest of us how we are not masters of our own destiny in many ways.

    Will the Cons be seen as a "jobs for the boys" party in terms of favouring one small, priveleged section of society over the majority of "working people" (and non-working ones).

    That is the Cons' biggest challenge - the perception that they are the party of the few. In times of plenty it doesn't matter; in difficult times it matters a very great deal.

    The possibility of a returning Cons govt therefore relies either on people feeling so good that they don't want to ruin the ongoing and perceptible recovery not to say boom times; or on the perception that the Tories do indeed govern for everyone in the UK (September's vote notwithstanding) and this in turn will rely on them creating some identifiable person-of-the-people touch points whereby everyone from Wigan to West Sussex gets it. And I'm afraid Eric Pickles ain't it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,016
    This is an extremely difficult market to predict. As Mike points out at the last election the Lib Dems were the only party not to lose any deposits showing widespread, if fairly shallow, support for the party across the country.

    Even at the last election after the supposed Cleggasm the Lib Dems were on the back foot and their efforts in many parts of the country were token so concentrating their limited firepower on areas of strength will not be anything new.

    In 2005 there is no doubt that some of these supporters were anti war Labourites and there may still have been a shadow of that in 2010. In 2010 there were also some economic refugees fleeing from the chaos and incompetence of the Brown catastrophe. I recall that Southam Observer was one of these. The polling suggests many of these have gone back to Labour and, so far, are not coming back. I think that will hit them everywhere not just in marginals making lost deposits more likely.

    But it still seems to me that the Lib Dem vote will be more evenly spread that they might ideally like. It is the nature of the beast and the nature of their support. It is very difficult but I would be aiming somewhat lower than Mike.
  • Question is will the LibDems face reality or will they run candidates nationwide? The reality is this - unless you are a party activist there is no reason to vote LibDem. If you support the government vote Tory. If you want them out vote Labour. If you want none of them vote UKIP. People are pretty polarised, they struggle with a party who campaigned on an anti-Tory platform then went into government to enact Tory policies, who say about the next election they could work with anyone and do anything they're not fussed.

    As they hold many seats where the opposition is a Tory I expect those MPs to campaign as the anti-government party. In the seats where they are defending against Labour they will be the progovernment party. I keep reading about incumbency and how they will keep seats they hold, but I'm not so sure. You can't have a party lead by a reviled liar saying one thing in one seat and another thing in another and expect success. OGH bangs on about Eastleigh and yes they clung on despite a massive vote loss. So all they need to do is put every activist in the country into every seat they are defending simultaneously and I'm sure they will do fine....
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    I think Ed will make it to number ten next year as long as he sits back and lets the Conservatives continue to make mistakes at the rate they are. It's not just class envy, although there is a bit of that, there's something almost perverse in the way they put banking on a pedestal.

    Banking should be a way to grease the wheels of business, a somewhat boring but reliable business staffed by boring but reliable people, The emphasis on gambling (although numerically small in number) takes all the limelight. And for the lucky people involved, it's almost risk-free. You make a fortune or you lose your job - but with a big payout.

    The best simile is with Premiership football. You have a faded star on a massive and lengthy contract. He may kiss the club badge but he doesn't mean it, he's only interested in number one. His agent is telling the manager that another club is interested and the manager falls for this every time, despite the player being unfit and suitable only for the scrapyard. So the fan's season ticket keeps going up and they can't move to another club.

    All they can do is complain or hope he (Cameron) gets the sack, even though the new manager (Ed) would be just as gullible.

    The cut in higher rate tax is seen as one example of this behaviour. We got relegated, yet the stars' wages continued to soar.

    The manager may have his reasons but we think he's a fool.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    That chart shows that, contrary to the Lib Dems' delusions, it's getting worse for them not better: their 4 worst drops have all come in the last 5 byelections.

    I'm sticking by a prediction of 25-30 MPs; I think the incumbency factor will not be enough to save almost any sitting Lib Dem MPs in Lib/Lab fights, and I still maintain that they will do worse in Lib/Tory fights than the assumption. There will be an inordinate amount of lost deposits, although they might be flattered on that score by them not even running candidates in a few Tory/Lab marginals.
  • RP [7.29am] - a voter might think that there is a difference between a Tory and a Tory-led coalition government - I expect we'll get not a few leaks between now and polling day to get this point across. The rest of your comment I broadly agree with. There may be a betting opportunity (if you can find the market) in the change in Labour share in seats which are supposed to be Tory/Lib Dem marginals. In other words, how many voters in 2005 were anti-war left-of-centre, and how much further to the right has the electorate as a whole swung since then?
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366

    To stretch my football analogy further, the LDs are the second team coach who's tarred with the same brush as the manager, Ukip are an ambitious non-league manager who may need more experience before being considered.

    At least, premiership footballers had a talent once, though.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410

    It is also true to say that unlike the Tories and UKIP the LDs have won a by-election in this parliament..

    You might also note that that victory, whilst being a party of government, is something that the Tories last achieved in 1989. Every single blue defence since then had ended in failure.

    Vote shares are irrelevant.

    I agree on the betting analysis. The LDs will lose a lot of deposits where it doesn't matter. In seats where it does, it will hold on.

    In fact there is only one seat, Berwick, where the bookies make the Tories favourite to take a seat off the yellows.

    CON gain Solihull Mike, surely :D ?!
  • Miss Fitalass, I hope Jasper's alright.

    Good morning, everyone.

    Very interesting graph. It'd be even more cunning if we could compare the council seat performances in those areas and see whether there's a match between by-election woe and shedding councillors. Many think places where the stronger Lib Dem councillor base has been maintained will be easier to defend come the General Election.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    This is a tricky market and frankly unless you have a very good read on the LibDem seat strategy .... and I do, it remains a market well worth avoiding unless some outstanding value can be found and IMO there isn't any.

    If you are considering a plunge remember the LibDems will have almost parity in coverage on the broadcast media and that will bump their score in seats they are not contesting in any viable fashion.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,808
    I posted at the end of one of the weekend threads that I simply cannot see a route to a Tory win. Just looking at constituency summaries in the NW and WM shows so many seats where Labour will expect to regain ground. There has been a failure to deal effectively with banking and indeed corporate power, a fake localism agenda, demolition of local services and now in many areas a planning free-for-all that is impacting hugely on some communities. Most importantly pay rises are behind inflation for the key swing voting groups. Until we return to a normal economic paradigm where interest rates are being used to reward savers as well as control inflation, people will not believe recovery that is based on massaged stats and stoking a distorted housing market.
  • This is the problem with a triangulation / all things to all men party. In opposition that is fine – you can play issues locally (and different here from there). But in power you need to have a policy on things.

    True lefties now hate the LibDems because they are in bed with the Tories. They aren’t coming back.

    Orange Booker / Libertarian voters now hate the LbDems because they are spouting lefty crap once again in order to seek rehabilitation with their lost vote. And because they’ve sold their soul to the EU.

    Basically the LbDems represent no particular view point. If you are leftyish vote Labour, rightyish vote Tory and if you’re pissed off with all the machine politics vote UKIP. The LibDems are a spent force because there just are not that many confused hypocritical beardy yoghurt knitters in the country.
  • Sensational stuff from New Zealand in Wellington overnight:

    http://www.espncricinfo.com/new-zealand-v-india-2014/content/story/719779.html

    What an extraordinary achievement. They are looking a pretty nifty side at the moment.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    i've backed 150+ at 7-2, not going to bother with any other band.
  • fitalass said:

    Second! Currently nursing a very ill and much loved pet, our old boy Jasper, the cat who is my avatar.

    Get well soon Jasper.
  • Patrick said:

    This is the problem with a triangulation / all things to all men party. In opposition that is fine – you can play issues locally (and different here from there). But in power you need to have a policy on things.

    True lefties now hate the LibDems because they are in bed with the Tories. They aren’t coming back.

    Orange Booker / Libertarian voters now hate the LbDems because they are spouting lefty crap once again in order to seek rehabilitation with their lost vote. And because they’ve sold their soul to the EU.

    Basically the LbDems represent no particular view point. If you are leftyish vote Labour, rightyish vote Tory and if you’re pissed off with all the machine politics vote UKIP. The LibDems are a spent force because there just are not that many confused hypocritical beardy yoghurt knitters in the country.

    The only real reason Orange Bookers are LDs and not Tories is because of Europe, isn't it? The EU is the one thing that seems to unite all committed LDs - voters and MPs.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    fitalass said:

    Mike, when it comes to winning by elections, you might also like to note that the last two the Tories gained in the last Parliament, they hung onto unlike the SNP or the Libdem's. Just saying.

    It is also true to say that unlike the Tories and UKIP the LDs have won a by-election in this parliament..

    You might also note that that victory, whilst being a party of government, is something that the Tories last achieved in 1989. Every single blue defence since then had ended in failure.

    Vote shares are irrelevant.

    I agree on the betting analysis. The LDs will lose a lot of deposits where it doesn't matter. In seats where it does, it will hold on.

    In fact there is only one seat, Berwick, where the bookies make the Tories favourite to take a seat off the yellows.

    Ha Ha , you mean to your ONE MP.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    philiph said:

    I think the 2015 election is very hard to call, or maybe my preferences make me unwilling to see the likely outcome.

    As Mike says below, the LibDems will shed loads of useless votes, although I differ from Mike and don't see them as 'No value' or 'Wasted' votes. If the LibDems go from a party of 23% to a party of 16%, they will lose some legitimacy, regardless of seat totals.

    Through the fog of my mind (which I should be used to now as it has the clarity of pea soup most of the time), I want to see a Tory revival, but I really don't see where it is going to come from. They may pick up a percent or three to get to mid or just above mid 30s, but not high enough. And Labour? Well, they will get mid 30s or just below. This really will be the election in which all three established parties are seen as equally unattractive, and I think there is good reason for the electorate to be cynical about all three.

    I'm on a quick trip to Australia (arrived Saturday, leave Thursday). There is a salutary lesson on how outside forces can influence your economy. Since the election here I am told that Holden (owned by GM) have announced they are ceasing production in Australia in 2015 - 17. As have Ford and Toyota. There will be no car manufacture in the country, three announcements form three foreign owned corporations and your manufacturing output, balance of payments and employment in an productive sector are put in jeopardy. I don't know if these actions are as a result of the plans of the incoming government, but if true, it will be painful for Australia, and a reminder to the rest of us how we are not masters of our own destiny in many ways.

    Nothing to do with incoming government, it is to do with paying themselves far too much in wages etc. They can produce the cars much cheaper elsewhere. Australia just following UK policy in the 70's/80's and paying themselves far too much.
  • Patrick said:

    This is the problem with a triangulation / all things to all men party. In opposition that is fine – you can play issues locally (and different here from there). But in power you need to have a policy on things.

    True lefties now hate the LibDems because they are in bed with the Tories. They aren’t coming back.

    Orange Booker / Libertarian voters now hate the LbDems because they are spouting lefty crap once again in order to seek rehabilitation with their lost vote. And because they’ve sold their soul to the EU.

    Basically the LbDems represent no particular view point. If you are leftyish vote Labour, rightyish vote Tory and if you’re pissed off with all the machine politics vote UKIP. The LibDems are a spent force because there just are not that many confused hypocritical beardy yoghurt knitters in the country.

    The only real reason Orange Bookers are LDs and not Tories is because of Europe, isn't it? The EU is the one thing that seems to unite all committed LDs - voters and MPs.

    Maybe they should rename themselves then. How about:
    'the Brussels Appeasement Party'?
    'the Britain in the EUSSR Party'?
    'the Barroso Sphincter Tonguing Party'?
    'the Jawohl Mein Fuhrer Party'?
  • I posted at the end of one of the weekend threads that I simply cannot see a route to a Tory win. Just looking at constituency summaries in the NW and WM shows so many seats where Labour will expect to regain ground. There has been a failure to deal effectively with banking and indeed corporate power, a fake localism agenda, demolition of local services and now in many areas a planning free-for-all that is impacting hugely on some communities. Most importantly pay rises are behind inflation for the key swing voting groups. Until we return to a normal economic paradigm where interest rates are being used to reward savers as well as control inflation, people will not believe recovery that is based on massaged stats and stoking a distorted housing market.

    It is probably too soon to be completely writing off Tory chances but clearly the clock is ticking now, hence the disappearance of that old crutch "midterm" from this forum. Rod Crosby has forecast crossover in 70 days. But, if anything, the Labour voting bloc seems more solid than it was.
  • On the last thread: Howard would not get confirmed by the European Parliament.

    Why not? He's an experienced politician, not obviously bonkers, and from the UK's largest party. Unlike some of the other contenders he's also not going to be returning to a UK parliamentary career, which would incentivize grandstanding for domestic purposes instead of getting on with the job.

    In any case if the parliament are going to get in a bun-fight with the member states there are much more important things to fight over, like whether the President of the Commission is going to be decided by which of them won the election or by a traditional head-of-state stitch-up.
  • Patrick said:

    Patrick said:

    This is the problem with a triangulation / all things to all men party. In opposition that is fine – you can play issues locally (and different here from there). But in power you need to have a policy on things.

    True lefties now hate the LibDems because they are in bed with the Tories. They aren’t coming back.

    Orange Booker / Libertarian voters now hate the LbDems because they are spouting lefty crap once again in order to seek rehabilitation with their lost vote. And because they’ve sold their soul to the EU.

    Basically the LbDems represent no particular view point. If you are leftyish vote Labour, rightyish vote Tory and if you’re pissed off with all the machine politics vote UKIP. The LibDems are a spent force because there just are not that many confused hypocritical beardy yoghurt knitters in the country.

    The only real reason Orange Bookers are LDs and not Tories is because of Europe, isn't it? The EU is the one thing that seems to unite all committed LDs - voters and MPs.

    Maybe they should rename themselves then. How about:
    'the Brussels Appeasement Party'?
    'the Britain in the EUSSR Party'?
    'the Barroso Sphincter Tonguing Party'?
    'the Jawohl Mein Fuhrer Party'?

    Hmmm. Not sure that would work too well.

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited February 2014
    Patrick said:

    Patrick said:

    This is the problem with a triangulation / all things to all men party. In opposition that is fine – you can play issues locally (and different here from there). But in power you need to have a policy on things.

    True lefties now hate the LibDems because they are in bed with the Tories. They aren’t coming back.

    Orange Booker / Libertarian voters now hate the LbDems because they are spouting lefty crap once again in order to seek rehabilitation with their lost vote. And because they’ve sold their soul to the EU.

    Basically the LbDems represent no particular view point. If you are leftyish vote Labour, rightyish vote Tory and if you’re pissed off with all the machine politics vote UKIP. The LibDems are a spent force because there just are not that many confused hypocritical beardy yoghurt knitters in the country.

    The only real reason Orange Bookers are LDs and not Tories is because of Europe, isn't it? The EU is the one thing that seems to unite all committed LDs - voters and MPs.

    Maybe they should rename themselves then. How about:
    'the Brussels Appeasement Party'?
    'the Britain in the EUSSR Party'?
    'the Barroso Sphincter Tonguing Party'?
    'the Jawohl Mein Fuhrer Party'?
    I'm guessing you don't actually follow European politics. Am I close?
  • On the last thread: Howard would not get confirmed by the European Parliament.

    Why not? He's an experienced politician, not obviously bonkers, and from the UK's largest party. Unlike some of the other contenders he's also not going to be returning to a UK parliamentary career, which would incentivize grandstanding for domestic purposes instead of getting on with the job.

    In any case if the parliament are going to get in a bun-fight with the member states there are much more important things to fight over, like whether the President of the Commission is going to be decided by which of them won the election or by a traditional head-of-state stitch-up.

    The European Parliament doesn't approve individual commissioners, does it?
  • Patrick said:

    This is the problem with a triangulation / all things to all men party. In opposition that is fine – you can play issues locally (and different here from there). But in power you need to have a policy on things.

    True lefties now hate the LibDems because they are in bed with the Tories. They aren’t coming back.

    Orange Booker / Libertarian voters now hate the LbDems because they are spouting lefty crap once again in order to seek rehabilitation with their lost vote. And because they’ve sold their soul to the EU.

    Basically the LbDems represent no particular view point. If you are leftyish vote Labour, rightyish vote Tory and if you’re pissed off with all the machine politics vote UKIP. The LibDems are a spent force because there just are not that many confused hypocritical beardy yoghurt knitters in the country.

    The only real reason Orange Bookers are LDs and not Tories is because of Europe, isn't it? The EU is the one thing that seems to unite all committed LDs - voters and MPs.

    ...and how confused can they be? Liberal. Democrats. And they love the EU - jeez! Education standards have fallen haven't they? Maybe they should call themselves the 'Do what you're told by Brussels / You can't ever vote for a change of direction party'.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    It is also true to say that unlike the Tories and UKIP the LDs have won a by-election in this parliament..

    You might also note that that victory, whilst being a party of government, is something that the Tories last achieved in 1989. Every single blue defence since then had ended in failure.

    Vote shares are irrelevant.

    I agree on the betting analysis. The LDs will lose a lot of deposits where it doesn't matter. In seats where it does, it will hold on.

    In fact there is only one seat, Berwick, where the bookies make the Tories favourite to take a seat off the yellows.

    If these seats don't matter, why even run candidates there?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Outrageous censorship at a British university:

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/feb/11/censor-michelangelo-spoof-advert-disbelief-sistine-atheism

    Back in the 1990s, the special privileges of the religious for their views to get extra protection from "offence" seemed to be on the way out... what has changed?
  • On the last thread: Howard would not get confirmed by the European Parliament.

    Why not? He's an experienced politician, not obviously bonkers, and from the UK's largest party. Unlike some of the other contenders he's also not going to be returning to a UK parliamentary career, which would incentivize grandstanding for domestic purposes instead of getting on with the job.

    In any case if the parliament are going to get in a bun-fight with the member states there are much more important things to fight over, like whether the President of the Commission is going to be decided by which of them won the election or by a traditional head-of-state stitch-up.

    The European Parliament doesn't approve individual commissioners, does it?
    No, they can only approve the whole thing or reject the whole thing and send it back to the member states to try again. But if Cameron tried to nominate Rosemary West and got the other member states to agree, parliament would probably reject the whole thing and make it known they'd only pass if the member states sent them a new list of nominees without any convicted serial killers.

    There is a possibility some of the member states might give them some deliberately ceremonial crap nominees to reject the first time and send back, on the grounds that repeated rejections look obstructive. For some appointments Obama sometimes seems to float a name for Republican Senators to shoot down, then give them the person he really wants when they've run out of ammunition. But that doesn't seem like a good game for Cameron to play, as his party would get all Dunkirk Spirit about the crap nominee and he wouldn't be able to switch to the one he really wanted. (Although maybe it could be done by floating somebody really unpopular like Mitchell then switching for Howard...)
  • Patrick said:

    Patrick said:

    This is the problem with a triangulation / all things to all men party. In opposition that is fine – you can play issues locally (and different here from there). But in power you need to have a policy on things.

    True lefties now hate the LibDems because they are in bed with the Tories. They aren’t coming back.

    Orange Booker / Libertarian voters now hate the LbDems because they are spouting lefty crap once again in order to seek rehabilitation with their lost vote. And because they’ve sold their soul to the EU.

    Basically the LbDems represent no particular view point. If you are leftyish vote Labour, rightyish vote Tory and if you’re pissed off with all the machine politics vote UKIP. The LibDems are a spent force because there just are not that many confused hypocritical beardy yoghurt knitters in the country.

    The only real reason Orange Bookers are LDs and not Tories is because of Europe, isn't it? The EU is the one thing that seems to unite all committed LDs - voters and MPs.

    Maybe they should rename themselves then. How about:
    'the Brussels Appeasement Party'?
    'the Britain in the EUSSR Party'?
    'the Barroso Sphincter Tonguing Party'?
    'the Jawohl Mein Fuhrer Party'?
    I'm guessing you don't actually follow European politics. Am I close?
    No. I follow it closely and with horror. I sincerely hope the anti-EU 'fringe' parties (FN, Wilders, UKIP, etc) do brilliantly in May. I detest the fact that the EU is not a democracy. Democracies can vote in their governments and can, through the ballot box, determine their direction of travel. In the EU the power is with the commission - an unelected and unaccountable elite. There is no mechanism for the angry voter to reject either the individuals or the policy mix.

    And even if it were a democracy I equally detest the fact that we assume a EUSSR is in any country's interest. Why should a even a democratic EU govern the UK? Since when did the people of Europe expressly approve in referendums the destruction of their historic nation states?
  • On the last thread: Howard would not get confirmed by the European Parliament.

    Why not? He's an experienced politician, not obviously bonkers, and from the UK's largest party. Unlike some of the other contenders he's also not going to be returning to a UK parliamentary career, which would incentivize grandstanding for domestic purposes instead of getting on with the job.

    In any case if the parliament are going to get in a bun-fight with the member states there are much more important things to fight over, like whether the President of the Commission is going to be decided by which of them won the election or by a traditional head-of-state stitch-up.

    The European Parliament doesn't approve individual commissioners, does it?
    No, they can only approve the whole thing or reject the whole thing and send it back to the member states to try again. But if Cameron tried to nominate Rosemary West and got the other member states to agree, parliament would probably reject the whole thing and make it known they'd only pass if the member states sent them a new list of nominees without any convicted serial killers.

    There is a possibility some of the member states might give them some deliberately ceremonial crap nominees to reject the first time and send back, on the grounds that repeated rejections look obstructive. For some appointments Obama sometimes seems to float a name for Republican Senators to shoot down, then give them the person he really wants when they've run out of ammunition. But that doesn't seem like a good game for Cameron to play, as his party would get all Dunkirk Spirit about the crap nominee and he wouldn't be able to switch to the one he really wanted. (Although maybe it could be done by floating somebody really unpopular like Mitchell then switching for Howard...)
    Perhaps we could get Patrick to nominate AH (1896-1945). There's no law that says that nominees have to be alive, is there?
  • Patrick said:

    Patrick said:

    Patrick said:

    This is the problem with a triangulation / all things to all men party. In opposition that is fine – you can play issues locally (and different here from there). But in power you need to have a policy on things.

    True lefties now hate the LibDems because they are in bed with the Tories. They aren’t coming back.

    Orange Booker / Libertarian voters now hate the LbDems because they are spouting lefty crap once again in order to seek rehabilitation with their lost vote. And because they’ve sold their soul to the EU.

    Basically the LbDems represent no particular view point. If you are leftyish vote Labour, rightyish vote Tory and if you’re pissed off with all the machine politics vote UKIP. The LibDems are a spent force because there just are not that many confused hypocritical beardy yoghurt knitters in the country.

    The only real reason Orange Bookers are LDs and not Tories is because of Europe, isn't it? The EU is the one thing that seems to unite all committed LDs - voters and MPs.

    Maybe they should rename themselves then. How about:
    'the Brussels Appeasement Party'?
    'the Britain in the EUSSR Party'?
    'the Barroso Sphincter Tonguing Party'?
    'the Jawohl Mein Fuhrer Party'?
    I'm guessing you don't actually follow European politics. Am I close?
    No. I follow it closely and with horror. I sincerely hope the anti-EU 'fringe' parties (FN, Wilders, UKIP, etc) do brilliantly in May. I detest the fact that the EU is not a democracy. Democracies can vote in their governments and can, through the ballot box, determine their direction of travel. In the EU the power is with the commission - an unelected and unaccountable elite. There is no mechanism for the angry voter to reject either the individuals or the policy mix.

    And even if it were a democracy I equally detest the fact that we assume a EUSSR is in any country's interest. Why should a even a democratic EU govern the UK? Since when did the people of Europe expressly approve in referendums the destruction of their historic nation states?
    The reason I ask is that you seem to think the Liberals support the Conservative leader...
  • Mr. Socrates, that's just deranged. I'm also amused at the Guardian wondering where this censorship could've come from. I wonder. From the precedent set by censoring the Danish cartoons and, more recently, Jesus and Mo, perhaps?
  • Patrick said:

    Patrick said:

    Patrick said:

    This is the problem with a triangulation / all things to all men party. In opposition that is fine – you can play issues locally (and different here from there). But in power you need to have a policy on things.

    True lefties now hate the LibDems because they are in bed with the Tories. They aren’t coming back.

    Orange Booker / Libertarian voters now hate the LbDems because they are spouting lefty crap once again in order to seek rehabilitation with their lost vote. And because they’ve sold their soul to the EU.

    Basically the LbDems represent no particular view point. If you are leftyish vote Labour, rightyish vote Tory and if you’re pissed off with all the machine politics vote UKIP. The LibDems are a spent force because there just are not that many confused hypocritical beardy yoghurt knitters in the country.

    The only real reason Orange Bookers are LDs and not Tories is because of Europe, isn't it? The EU is the one thing that seems to unite all committed LDs - voters and MPs.

    Maybe they should rename themselves then. How about:
    'the Brussels Appeasement Party'?
    'the Britain in the EUSSR Party'?
    'the Barroso Sphincter Tonguing Party'?
    'the Jawohl Mein Fuhrer Party'?
    I'm guessing you don't actually follow European politics. Am I close?
    No. I follow it closely and with horror. I sincerely hope the anti-EU 'fringe' parties (FN, Wilders, UKIP, etc) do brilliantly in May. I detest the fact that the EU is not a democracy. Democracies can vote in their governments and can, through the ballot box, determine their direction of travel. In the EU the power is with the commission - an unelected and unaccountable elite. There is no mechanism for the angry voter to reject either the individuals or the policy mix.

    And even if it were a democracy I equally detest the fact that we assume a EUSSR is in any country's interest. Why should a even a democratic EU govern the UK? Since when did the people of Europe expressly approve in referendums the destruction of their historic nation states?
    The reason I ask is that you seem to think the Liberals support the Conservative leader...
    No - not really. A true liberal would, of course, recoil from the EU. A true liberal would recoil from Dave.
  • Salmond says he'll deconstruct Osborne's case against a currency union:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26220638

    It'll be interesting to see whether he actually does this, or just goes tub-thumping with slogans. It's also worth noting that a currency union requires both parties to agree, it's not something solely in the gift of the Scottish people. I wonder whether that will be acknowledged.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited February 2014

    Mr. Socrates, that's just deranged. I'm also amused at the Guardian wondering where this censorship could've come from. I wonder. From the precedent set by censoring the Danish cartoons and, more recently, Jesus and Mo, perhaps?

    Somebody elected idiots to their Student Union? This has been known to happen...
  • Mr. Tokyo, indeed. How sad that this is falling the example set by the whole print and broadcast media a couple of weeks ago.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Mr. Socrates, that's just deranged. I'm also amused at the Guardian wondering where this censorship could've come from. I wonder. From the precedent set by censoring the Danish cartoons and, more recently, Jesus and Mo, perhaps?

    Somebody elected twats to their Student Union? This has been known to happen...
    Yes, but traditionally they're hard left-wing twats who disdained church folk. What has made them suddenly so sensitive to the feelings of the religious?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Latest McARSE Scottish Referendum Projection Countdown :

    1 day
  • Mr. Tokyo, indeed. How sad that this is falling the example set by the whole print and broadcast media a couple of weeks ago.

    Yup.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Deviants, dog killers and dupes
    Patrick said:

    Patrick said:

    This is the problem with a triangulation / all things to all men party. In opposition that is fine – you can play issues locally (and different here from there). But in power you need to have a policy on things.

    True lefties now hate the LibDems because they are in bed with the Tories. They aren’t coming back.

    Orange Booker / Libertarian voters now hate the LbDems because they are spouting lefty crap once again in order to seek rehabilitation with their lost vote. And because they’ve sold their soul to the EU.

    Basically the LbDems represent no particular view point. If you are leftyish vote Labour, rightyish vote Tory and if you’re pissed off with all the machine politics vote UKIP. The LibDems are a spent force because there just are not that many confused hypocritical beardy yoghurt knitters in the country.

    The only real reason Orange Bookers are LDs and not Tories is because of Europe, isn't it? The EU is the one thing that seems to unite all committed LDs - voters and MPs.

    Maybe they should rename themselves then. How about:
    'the Brussels Appeasement Party'?
    'the Britain in the EUSSR Party'?
    'the Barroso Sphincter Tonguing Party'?
    'the Jawohl Mein Fuhrer Party'?
  • Ahem, *following. Sorry about that.

    Six Nations: Dan Cole is out of the tournament: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/26221035
  • Patrick said:

    Patrick said:

    Patrick said:

    This is the problem with a triangulation / all things to all men party. In opposition that is fine – you can play issues locally (and different here from there). But in power you need to have a policy on things.

    True lefties now hate the LibDems because they are in bed with the Tories. They aren’t coming back.

    Orange Booker / Libertarian voters now hate the LbDems because they are spouting lefty crap once again in order to seek rehabilitation with their lost vote. And because they’ve sold their soul to the EU.

    Basically the LbDems represent no particular view point. If you are leftyish vote Labour, rightyish vote Tory and if you’re pissed off with all the machine politics vote UKIP. The LibDems are a spent force because there just are not that many confused hypocritical beardy yoghurt knitters in the country.

    The only real reason Orange Bookers are LDs and not Tories is because of Europe, isn't it? The EU is the one thing that seems to unite all committed LDs - voters and MPs.

    Maybe they should rename themselves then. How about:
    'the Brussels Appeasement Party'?
    'the Britain in the EUSSR Party'?
    'the Barroso Sphincter Tonguing Party'?
    'the Jawohl Mein Fuhrer Party'?
    I'm guessing you don't actually follow European politics. Am I close?
    No. I follow it closely and with horror. I sincerely hope the anti-EU 'fringe' parties (FN, Wilders, UKIP, etc) do brilliantly in May. I detest the fact that the EU is not a democracy. Democracies can vote in their governments and can, through the ballot box, determine their direction of travel. In the EU the power is with the commission - an unelected and unaccountable elite. There is no mechanism for the angry voter to reject either the individuals or the policy mix.

    And even if it were a democracy I equally detest the fact that we assume a EUSSR is in any country's interest. Why should a even a democratic EU govern the UK? Since when did the people of Europe expressly approve in referendums the destruction of their historic nation states?

    The real power in the EU lies with the Council of Ministers, not with the Commission. The Commission can do nothing without the agreement of the member states.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,566
    fitalass said:

    Second! Currently nursing a very ill and much loved pet, our old boy Jasper, the cat who is my avatar.

    Good luck - I'm sure he's in the best possible hands and has had a happier life than most of us.

    On the last thread: Howard would not get confirmed by the European Parliament.

    Why not? He's an experienced politician, not obviously bonkers, and from the UK's largest party. Unlike some of the other contenders he's also not going to be returning to a UK parliamentary career, which would incentivize grandstanding for domestic purposes instead of getting on with the job.

    In any case if the parliament are going to get in a bun-fight with the member states there are much more important things to fight over, like whether the President of the Commission is going to be decided by which of them won the election or by a traditional head-of-state stitch-up.

    The European Parliament doesn't approve individual commissioners, does it?
    The EP does approve (or not) replacements during a Commission term - I was heavily involved in lobbying MEPs to approve a Maltese appointee (Tonio Borg) who had welcome views on animal testing, despite significant opposition on other grounds. He won, but not by an overwhelming margin (2-1 IIRC). However, in this case the whole slate will be up for renewal. I wouldn't think they'd veto it just because Howard was in it - he's not Farage or Hannan and they'd see him as an establishment candidate, someone who would fit into a sober consensus-oriented environment. Sure, he's said some sharp things in the past, but they're all politicians and wouldn't necessarily stand by every opinion they've ever expressed either.

    He would, however, not go down well with the Tory->UKIP drifters, for exactly the same reasons.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,989
    Morning all :)

    I suppose it's a sign of political virility to run candidates in every English, Scottish and Welsh seat - the Liberals didn't for many years but we've seen parties like Referendum and Natural Law try to run full slates.

    Of course, a pragmatic view would be what's the point either the Tories or LDs putting up candidates in a seat like East Ham but that's not how the game is played. None of the parties is truly "national" in the sense that they can fight every seat everywhere. Labour and the Conservatives will probably only seriously contest 150-200 seats (ignoring safe seats), the LDs maybe 75, the Greens fewer than 10, UKIP maybe 25-30.

    Given that a very large number of people live in safe seats and given the finite resources in money and people, it's not surprising resources have to be concentrated and that, in truth, for many millions of people, such as myself, under the present system, my vote won't matter.

    On the specific of by-elections, I've noticed Labour moving very quickly to hold contests - this is a great tactic in areas where they are the dominant force. For an opposition group, from a standing start, to build or import an organisation capable of taking a seat from nowhere in three or four weeks is a huge ask. I also think both Labour and Conservatives have come to recognise the need to be seen to be active even in the safest of areas between elections.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322


    fitalass said:

    Second! Currently nursing a very ill and much loved pet, our old boy Jasper, the cat who is my avatar.

    Good luck - I'm sure he's in the best possible hands and has had a happier life than most of us.

    On the last thread: Howard would not get confirmed by the European Parliament.

    Why not? He's an experienced politician, not obviously bonkers, and from the UK's largest party. Unlike some of the other contenders he's also not going to be returning to a UK parliamentary career, which would incentivize grandstanding for domestic purposes instead of getting on with the job.

    In any case if the parliament are going to get in a bun-fight with the member states there are much more important things to fight over, like whether the President of the Commission is going to be decided by which of them won the election or by a traditional head-of-state stitch-up.

    The European Parliament doesn't approve individual commissioners, does it?
    The EP does approve (or not) replacements during a Commission term - I was heavily involved in lobbying MEPs to approve a Maltese appointee (Tonio Borg) who had welcome views on animal testing, despite significant opposition on other grounds. He won, but not by an overwhelming margin (2-1 IIRC). However, in this case the whole slate will be up for renewal. I wouldn't think they'd veto it just because Howard was in it - he's not Farage or Hannan and they'd see him as an establishment candidate, someone who would fit into a sober consensus-oriented environment. Sure, he's said some sharp things in the past, but they're all politicians and wouldn't necessarily stand by every opinion they've ever expressed either.

    He would, however, not go down well with the Tory->UKIP drifters, for exactly the same reasons.
    The Parliament would really downvote the whole slate if Dan Hannan, an established MEP, was included?
  • The comments suggest Clegg's line is going down as well as a girl with lips made of sandpaper:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26222407

    I get the desire to appear not as a mini-me of Cameron or the Conservatives' underlings, but it makes Clegg/the Lib Dems look like they'll do and say anything for power. (Not exclusive to them, of course, but the message seems cackhanded). They should bang on about the personal allowance and... er... there are probably other Lib Dem policies which would be popular.

    It might be that Clegg's tainted, though.
  • Salmond says he'll deconstruct Osborne's case against a currency union:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26220638

    It'll be interesting to see whether he actually does this, or just goes tub-thumping with slogans. It's also worth noting that a currency union requires both parties to agree, it's not something solely in the gift of the Scottish people. I wonder whether that will be acknowledged.

    He'll probably proceed from the elementary fallacy that "it's Scotland's pound" and go downhill from there:

    the UK pound is Scotland’s currency now precisely because Scotland is currently part of the UK. Although certain UK assets could become subject to negotiation between the continuing UK and an independent Scottish state, there is no rule or principle in international law that would require the continuing UK to formally share its currency with an independent Scottish state.

    The status quo would remain for the continuing UK; the UK pound would continue to
    be printed and the Bank of England would continue to fulfil its current functions as a continuing UK institution. However, the position would be quite different for an independent Scottish state. Independence means leaving the UK’s monetary union and leaving the
    UK pound.


    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/279454/CM8815_2901849_SA_SterlingUnion_acc.pdf
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited February 2014
    Socrates said:

    Mr. Socrates, that's just deranged. I'm also amused at the Guardian wondering where this censorship could've come from. I wonder. From the precedent set by censoring the Danish cartoons and, more recently, Jesus and Mo, perhaps?

    Somebody elected twats to their Student Union? This has been known to happen...
    Yes, but traditionally they're hard left-wing twats who disdained church folk. What has made them suddenly so sensitive to the feelings of the religious?
    No, there has long been a wide and varied range of twattery represented in student union politics.

    But looking at the current anti-secular / anti-free speech strains, they come from two angles:

    1) Pro-establishment people - Blair, Prince Charles, some Christian leaders - who want to prop up what they see as traditional religious values, and do it by making very general social arguments about religion being good for society, but aren't able to draw a credible line just around Christianity. This is how we end up with traditionalists like Gove backing some fairly sketchy-sounding Islamic schools.

    2) Bits of the anti-establishment left allying with religious Islamists. This happened partly because ongoing UK/US support for Israel and invasion of middle-eastern countries brought their enemies into alignment, and partly because the left was a bit stuck for allies after Communism fell apart, and their least bad option was the Galloway coalition. They're also reacting to the pro-Christian / nationalist side doing things like public Koran burnings and opposing Mosques, which are understood (and often intended) as racial provocations.
  • Mr. Tapestry, good to see you on.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,536
    Socrates said:

    Mr. Socrates, that's just deranged. I'm also amused at the Guardian wondering where this censorship could've come from. I wonder. From the precedent set by censoring the Danish cartoons and, more recently, Jesus and Mo, perhaps?

    Somebody elected twats to their Student Union? This has been known to happen...
    Yes, but traditionally they're hard left-wing twats who disdained church folk. What has made them suddenly so sensitive to the feelings of the religious?
    Universities aren't exactly renowned for being places where free speech and independent thinking are valued.

    Remember the "no platform" policy for Conservative MPs.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,709
    Trouble is the designers of the EU's governance tried to be all things to all "men" and in doing so have satisfied nobody. National governments don't like the Parliament over-ruling the Council of Ministers, then the voters complain that the Parliament is just a talking shop and so it goes round.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Are the eurosceptics here exposing their typical ignorance of all things EU by claiming the Commission has all the power?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    edited February 2014

    Mr. Socrates, that's just deranged. I'm also amused at the Guardian wondering where this censorship could've come from. I wonder. From the precedent set by censoring the Danish cartoons and, more recently, Jesus and Mo, perhaps?

    South Bank University has, quite rightly, apologised:

    We have apologised to the Atheist Society for the actions taken and the distress that it has caused. From a Union perspective the ‘Flying Spaghetti Monster’ Poster has not been banned and we have agreed with the Atheist Society to reprint these posters and distribute them on campus for them. They will also be displayed inside the Union’s locked poster boards in order to prevent them being taken down by other students. We respect that all students are able to have opinions, but as a Union we wish to support the promotion and growth of any Union Society or activity without having to be subjected to harassment by fellow students. We remind students that the appropriate response to opinions they may find offensive is to engage in healthy debate respecting the rights of others to hold views or beliefs differing from their own.

    https://humanism.org.uk/2014/02/12/london-southbank-university-issue-full-apology-flying-spaghetti-monster-censorship-issue/


  • Mr. Observer, that's something. May you be touched by His Noodley Appendage.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited February 2014
    BenM said:

    Are the eurosceptics here exposing their typical ignorance of all things EU by claiming the Commission has all the power?

    I think just @Patrick on this thread, but as you imply he's not correct. He's also not really right about the voters having no way to influence the appointments, which is pretty obvious since we're discussing who Britain's (admittedly indirectly) elected PM should pick, and whether the parliament that we'll be electing this year will approve them.

    PS. Speaking of which, does the British parliament get to vet cabinet appointments? It feels like they should at least be holding hearings to question them before they start the job...
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,989

    The comments suggest Clegg's line is going down as well as a girl with lips made of sandpaper:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26222407

    I get the desire to appear not as a mini-me of Cameron or the Conservatives' underlings, but it makes Clegg/the Lib Dems look like they'll do and say anything for power. (Not exclusive to them, of course, but the message seems cackhanded). They should bang on about the personal allowance and... er... there are probably other Lib Dem policies which would be popular.

    It might be that Clegg's tainted, though.

    Given the vitriol thrown at Nick Clegg by many whatever he says and does, we can probably discount a lot of the comment but it does raise the significant point that, as John Major and Gordon Brown before him, Nick Clegg is seeking to personalise the antipathy toward his party.

    At the next election, voters will want to vote against him rather than his party though the party will of course suffer just as the Conservatives did in 1997 and Labour in 2010 but once that vote has happened and once he is publicly removed, the party can start again, just as the Tories and Labour have done, under a new leader.

    Trying to dodge the bullet by getting rid of Nick before the election isn't the point - the voters need to have their opportunity to kick him in the ballots but once the anger has been released, it's done and the new leader can start with a clean slate and begin the process of rebuilding the party's fortunes.

    It's possible to argue the same is true, on a smaller scale, for David Cameron. A number of those who will vote UKIP (or not vote at all) will be voting primarily against David Cameron.

  • Mr. Observer, that's something. May you be touched by His Noodley Appendage.

    Or not.

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,566
    Socrates said:



    The Parliament would really downvote the whole slate if Dan Hannan, an established MEP, was included?

    Don't know for sure, but in general people who are used to someone provoking them regularly will react against them, in the same way as you wouldn't get many Labour MPs voting for Galloway as Speaker, even if he was running against an average Tory. I'd think MEPs would find it much easier to swallow someone who was Eurosceptical but didn't go out of his way to wind them up. Never underestimate the personal in politics when it comes to obscure things like appointments to indirectly elected bodies.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,709
    Good thoughts Mr Stodge
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,566

    Socrates said:

    Mr. Socrates, that's just deranged. I'm also amused at the Guardian wondering where this censorship could've come from. I wonder. From the precedent set by censoring the Danish cartoons and, more recently, Jesus and Mo, perhaps?

    Somebody elected twats to their Student Union? This has been known to happen...
    Yes, but traditionally they're hard left-wing twats who disdained church folk. What has made them suddenly so sensitive to the feelings of the religious?
    No, there has long been a wide and varied range of twattery represented in student union politics.

    But looking at the current anti-secular / anti-free speech strains, they come from two angles:

    1) Pro-establishment people - Blair, Prince Charles, some Christian leaders - who want to prop up what they see as traditional religious values, and do it by making very general social arguments about religion being good for society, but aren't able to draw a credible line just around Christianity. This is how we end up with traditionalists like Gove backing some fairly sketchy-sounding Islamic schools.

    2) Bits of the anti-establishment left allying with religious Islamists. This happened partly because ongoing UK/US support for Israel and invasion of middle-eastern countries brought their enemies into alignment, and partly because the left was a bit stuck for allies after Communism fell apart, and their least bad option was the Galloway coalition. They're also reacting to the pro-Christian / nationalist side doing things like public Koran burnings and opposing Mosques, which are understood (and often intended) as racial provocations.
    Really good analysis there.
  • Socrates said:



    The Parliament would really downvote the whole slate if Dan Hannan, an established MEP, was included?

    Don't know for sure, but in general people who are used to someone provoking them regularly will react against them, in the same way as you wouldn't get many Labour MPs voting for Galloway as Speaker, even if he was running against an average Tory. I'd think MEPs would find it much easier to swallow someone who was Eurosceptical but didn't go out of his way to wind them up. Never underestimate the personal in politics when it comes to obscure things like appointments to indirectly elected bodies.

    If it weren't for personalities, I reckon all parties' ground troops would fall by about 80-90%

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    edited February 2014

    BenM said:

    Are the eurosceptics here exposing their typical ignorance of all things EU by claiming the Commission has all the power?

    I think just @Patrick on this thread, but as you imply he's not correct. He's also not really right about the voters having no way to influence the appointments, which is pretty obvious since we're discussing who Britain's (admittedly indirectly) elected PM should pick, and whether the parliament that we'll be electing next year will approve them.

    PS. Speaking of which, does the British parliament get to vet cabinet appointments? It feels like they should at least be holding hearings to question them before they start the job...

    What the Commission does have is the power of patronage, via its ability to allocate funds; and it is also charged with implementing policy/law agreed by the Council of Ministers and approved by the European Parliament. But whatever power it exercises it exercises at the behest and in the full knowledge of the Council.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469

    It is also true to say that unlike the Tories and UKIP the LDs have won a by-election in this parliament..

    You might also note that that victory, whilst being a party of government, is something that the Tories last achieved in 1989. Every single blue defence since then had ended in failure.

    Vote shares are irrelevant.

    I agree on the betting analysis. The LDs will lose a lot of deposits where it doesn't matter. In seats where it does, it will hold on.

    In fact there is only one seat, Berwick, where the bookies make the Tories favourite to take a seat off the yellows.

    Thats because Mike the bookies havent priced up certain seats like Sutton and Cheam yet..ask Shadsy to price that up as well as Carshalton and Wallington when you get a chance.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited February 2014

    Socrates said:

    Mr. Socrates, that's just deranged. I'm also amused at the Guardian wondering where this censorship could've come from. I wonder. From the precedent set by censoring the Danish cartoons and, more recently, Jesus and Mo, perhaps?

    Somebody elected twats to their Student Union? This has been known to happen...
    Yes, but traditionally they're hard left-wing twats who disdained church folk. What has made them suddenly so sensitive to the feelings of the religious?
    No, there has long been a wide and varied range of twattery represented in student union politics.

    But looking at the current anti-secular / anti-free speech strains, they come from two angles:

    1) Pro-establishment people - Blair, Prince Charles, some Christian leaders - who want to prop up what they see as traditional religious values, and do it by making very general social arguments about religion being good for society, but aren't able to draw a credible line just around Christianity. This is how we end up with traditionalists like Gove backing some fairly sketchy-sounding Islamic schools.

    2) Bits of the anti-establishment left allying with religious Islamists. This happened partly because ongoing UK/US support for Israel and invasion of middle-eastern countries brought their enemies into alignment, and partly because the left was a bit stuck for allies after Communism fell apart, and their least bad option was the Galloway coalition. They're also reacting to the pro-Christian / nationalist side doing things like public Koran burnings and opposing Mosques, which are understood (and often intended) as racial provocations.
    While (1) is certainly pro-religion, I've not heard them be anti-free speech. In my experience Christians are less sensitive to offensive jokes and such. Hence the reactions to the Jesus & Mo comics. Are you aware of examples of the Blair/Gove group demanding limits on free speech?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,341
    O/T but I'd like to thank Mr Foxinsox for the suggestions if I may - I have indeed read the 2 vols of Rodger but had not realised that a third vol is in prospect so that's something to look for.

    And the Admirals one is indeed one of the less well known prizes in the field!

    "That does sound an interesting work on the wider issues. The amazon review is robustly on the side of the RN!

    I expect that you have read NAM Rodgers excellent work on the Navy : http://www.amazon.co.uk/Command-Ocean-History-Britain-1649-1815-ebook/dp/B002RI9XVK/ref=la_B000APIJRQ_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1392592057&sr=1-1

    I hope the third volume is as good!

    This one is good as well, not least as one of my ancestors features briefly: http://www.amazon.co.uk/Admirals-Andrew-Lambert-ebook/dp/B004MW5FY8/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1392592560&sr=1-1&keywords=admirals"

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Socrates said:



    The Parliament would really downvote the whole slate if Dan Hannan, an established MEP, was included?

    Don't know for sure, but in general people who are used to someone provoking them regularly will react against them, in the same way as you wouldn't get many Labour MPs voting for Galloway as Speaker, even if he was running against an average Tory. I'd think MEPs would find it much easier to swallow someone who was Eurosceptical but didn't go out of his way to wind them up. Never underestimate the personal in politics when it comes to obscure things like appointments to indirectly elected bodies.

    Yet europhiles that go out of their way to wind up eurosceptics get appointed all the damn time. How is that reasonable?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Also, burning a Koran is a religious provocation, not a racial one. It is strange that the anti-establishment left does not feel the need to defend other provocations based on community/belief-systems like burnings of the star spangled banner...
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,989
    timmo said:


    Thats because Mike the bookies havent priced up certain seats like Sutton and Cheam yet..ask Shadsy to price that up as well as Carshalton and Wallington when you get a chance.

    You can probably add Kingston & Surbiton as well as Twickenham to that list but we'll know a lot more after the really important elections this year - not of course the European Parliamentary elections but the London Borough Elections. They will be hugely informative as to what might happen in the GE and certainly far more informative than the European elections.

  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    You can probably add Kingston & Surbiton as well as Twickenham to that list but we'll know a lot more after the really important elections this year -

    It would take some mighty shifts for the libs to lose those two seats....and there's a vocal UKIP presence in Kingston at least - I've seen them campaigning in the shopping centre.

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited February 2014
    Socrates said:


    While (1) is certainly pro-religion, I've not heard them be anti-free speech. In my experience Christians are less sensitive to offensive jokes and such. Hence the reactions to the Jesus & Mo comics. Are you aware of examples of the Blair/Gove group demanding limits on free speech?

    Look up Blair's Racial and Religious Hatred Bill, especially the bits they tried to introduce but failed because Labour MPs rebelled (a rare defeat in those days) and then the Lords started ripping things out.

    In the opposite direction, Brown's government finally abolished Britain's blasphemy laws in 2008, which were still on the books after years of Blair's Home Secretaries tinkering around with all kinds of related areas, and Thatcher refusing to fix them when the issue came up over the Satanic Verses death threats.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    taffys said:

    You can probably add Kingston & Surbiton as well as Twickenham to that list but we'll know a lot more after the really important elections this year -

    It would take some mighty shifts for the libs to lose those two seats....and there's a vocal UKIP presence in Kingston at least - I've seen them campaigning in the shopping centre.

    Ithink the Lib Dems will lose control of Kingston council this May..not so sure about Sutton where there would need a seismic move for the council to fall but as OGH is always banging on about the LD incumbency factor 23 out of 42 LD councillors have decided not to stand again this time around.
    I wonder why?
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    Salmond says he'll deconstruct Osborne's case against a currency union:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26220638

    It'll be interesting to see whether he actually does this, or just goes tub-thumping with slogans. It's also worth noting that a currency union requires both parties to agree, it's not something solely in the gift of the Scottish people. I wonder whether that will be acknowledged.

    How about this as a revised draft of todays speech by Salmond:

    Ok I think currency union is in Scotland's and rUk's interest, but it takes two to tango and the entire political establishment, 99.99% certain to be RUK's Govt for the foreseeable future disagrees. So today I'm outlining a more "Braveheart" view of independence rather than the "wee timorous mousie" we Nats have been peddling so far 'cos we're scared we won't win over swing voters if we say it as it really is, ie " Sterling's off the cards officially, we'll have to come to an arrangement with the debt with rUK as otherwise they can make life really really difficult economically for us, and only Mr Putin will lend us anything. Europe is fuzzy - we'll almost certainly get back in even if we were out for a bit, but it will take two or three years and involve horse trading a bit, happy Clydeside shipyard workers, will not be welding Royal Navy frigates, as Portsmouth will be kept open instead, and other UK public sector jobs will go south too because stuff that's administered in Scotland for the whole of the UK (bit like the DVLA in Wales so to speak), will get relocated too) rUK students will be foreign (no really) so we'll have to stop charging them tuition fees.

    However, not all is bleak, we can set up the Scots Pound after agreeing a two/three year transition with London, (during which time we'll agree to run our budget past them for approval), and if we're responsibly fiscally (no really, really, not just pretending we will be), after a probable little discount devaluation against Sterling we'll probably rub along at about parity, might involve slightly higher interest rates but nothing too scary. This does however, mean we'll have to be careful with a declining oil revenue and make sure we put a bit away for a rainy day, and contrary to expectations public spending won't increase and might have to be trimmed a bit. ( No free unicorns pooing tartan chocolate on every street corner in Airdrie I'm afraid kids). We should really save a bit on defence as we only need a few fishery vessels (not much use for 8% of an aircraft carrier really), and I doubt we'll need sophisticated jet fighters.

    There we are, a real independent country, that can pay its way, tailor its public services as it wants and not how those nasty money grabbing so and so's in the Home Counties want, its own currency, friendly relations with England ("a good neighbour, not a surly lodger" I think A Salmond once said).
  • Socrates said:

    Also, burning a Koran is a religious provocation, not a racial one.

    I doubt that. I think the racial angle was the point, at least partly. To show you my thinking, I reckon that if fate had mysteriously switched the doctrines of Scientology and Islam, Pastor Terry Jones have been burning (or being hilariously foiled while trying to burn) the book of Scientology that the brown people were using, and the Korans beloved by Sonny Bono and Tom Cruise would have remained kerosene-free.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Salmond has been forced onto the defensive on two fronts - yet both were well telegraphed in advance - did he gamble he could keep the lid on both until September ?

    Perhaps reports of his political skill have been exaggerated..
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited February 2014
    James Delingpole (@JamesDelingpole)
    17/02/2014 07:57
    On the hatefulness of liberal-lefties - or Why I'm joining Breitbart.com breitbart.com/Breitbart-Lond… @BreitbartNews

    http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/02/16/Delingpole-Why-Breitbart
  • TGOHF said:

    Salmond has been forced onto the defensive on two fronts - yet both were well telegraphed in advance - did he gamble he could keep the lid on both until September ?

    Perhaps reports of his political skill have been exaggerated..

    I think the monarchy issue will also emerge before Sept. How will HRH be monarch in both Scotland and rUK on an 'equal' basis? It won't work. Scotland will need a Governor General.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    A thought about the floods:

    I wonder how long it will take for a Tory government minister to make the next speech in support of their energy baron paymasters - sorry, I mean fracking!

    I imagine it'll be very quiet on that front for a while.
  • @PopulusPolls: New Populus VI: Lab 38 (=); Cons 33 (+1); LD 10 (+1); UKIP 13 (-1); Oth 7 (-1) Tables: http://t.co/NJaERCPHzm
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Patrick said:

    TGOHF said:

    Salmond has been forced onto the defensive on two fronts - yet both were well telegraphed in advance - did he gamble he could keep the lid on both until September ?

    Perhaps reports of his political skill have been exaggerated..

    I think the monarchy issue will also emerge before Sept. How will HRH be monarch in both Scotland and rUK on an 'equal' basis? It won't work. Scotland will need a Governor General.
    What practical problems do you foresee?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,989
    timmo said:


    Ithink the Lib Dems will lose control of Kingston council this May..not so sure about Sutton where there would need a seismic move for the council to fall but as OGH is always banging on about the LD incumbency factor 23 out of 42 LD councillors have decided not to stand again this time around.
    I wonder why?

    I used to live in Tom Brake's constituency and I imagine a lot of the Councillors were in the groups elected in 1990 and in the 1994 landslide when the Conservatives were reduced to just three Councillors. Looking through the group, there are at least 15 who were Councillors when I was active over there in the 90s along with John Keys who defected to Labour in 2012 and a few of the Conservatives.

    Kingston is always a hard one to read - Labour could come back strongly in Norbiton and I wouldn't rule out a Hung Council.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited February 2014
    isam said:
    I thought this bit was spot on:

    The bitter ranting of the party's supporters on comment threads is profoundly off-putting to UKIP-friendly voters who read politics blogs and are looking for reassurance that this is more than an insurgency.

    The kippers on PB are (generally) a more thoughtful lot - I can't recall an instance of "EUSSR" and there's only the occasional "LibLabCon" - but the stringent aroma of bellicose-colonel which wafts from every Telegraph or Mail article on UKIP, the EU, immigration or Islam is profoundly off-putting.
  • BenM said:

    A thought about the floods:

    I wonder how long it will take for a Tory government minister to make the next speech in support of their energy baron paymasters - sorry, I mean fracking!

    I imagine it'll be very quiet on that front for a while.

    I don't really get your point Ben. Gas is one of the lowest C02 energy sources we have. Sure, from a money perspective there is a point to be had. But from a climate change believers point of view fracking must be a good thing - it displaces more C)2 inefficient power, such as coal.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    BenM said:

    A thought about the floods:

    I wonder how long it will take for a Tory government minister to make the next speech in support of their energy baron paymasters - sorry, I mean fracking!

    I imagine it'll be very quiet on that front for a while.

    We should start fracking sooner - all the spare water can be pumped underground to flush out the lovely cheap gas - WIN WIN !

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Patrick said:

    TGOHF said:

    Salmond has been forced onto the defensive on two fronts - yet both were well telegraphed in advance - did he gamble he could keep the lid on both until September ?

    Perhaps reports of his political skill have been exaggerated..

    I think the monarchy issue will also emerge before Sept. How will HRH be monarch in both Scotland and rUK on an 'equal' basis? It won't work. Scotland will need a Governor General.
    Not sure having another wage on the government payroll will be a problem for Scotland..

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Nice to see all these by-election results together.

    Eastleigh is often mentioned as an example of the LD vote 'holding up', yet it was one of their worst declines, masked by the decline in the Conservative vote.

    That in a seat that has an active LD branch, and in a contest supported by the full resources of the national party.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited February 2014
    isam said:

    James Delingpole (@JamesDelingpole)
    17/02/2014 07:57
    On the hatefulness of liberal-lefties - or Why I'm joining Breitbart.com breitbart.com/Breitbart-Lond… @BreitbartNews

    http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/02/16/Delingpole-Why-Breitbart

    Breitbart is a joke for its hackery even among those on the American right. James Delingpole will be right at home.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,341
    edited February 2014
    Patrick said:

    TGOHF said:

    Salmond has been forced onto the defensive on two fronts - yet both were well telegraphed in advance - did he gamble he could keep the lid on both until September ?

    Perhaps reports of his political skill have been exaggerated..

    I think the monarchy issue will also emerge before Sept. How will HRH be monarch in both Scotland and rUK on an 'equal' basis? It won't work. Scotland will need a Governor General.
    Oh, it's gone round and round more times than I can remember, and it's not as if HM the Q of S couldn't pop in and out on her helicopter or delegate to Princess Anne in particular (who would be one obvious choice as GG given her now very strong Scottish links). Not a huge issue, not least because Canada and Australia also do it, but also because support for the monarchy is pretty tepid in Scotland anyway. It surprised me, all the same, to read that there were no [garden DELETED] street parties to speak of for the Jubilee (except in two particular areas, which will not surprise anyone who knows Scottish political and social situation).
  • isam said:

    James Delingpole (@JamesDelingpole)
    17/02/2014 07:57
    On the hatefulness of liberal-lefties - or Why I'm joining Breitbart.com breitbart.com/Breitbart-Lond… @BreitbartNews

    http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/02/16/Delingpole-Why-Breitbart

    We have yet to see a liberal leftie blow up the centre of a western European city, killing eight, and then systematically murder dozens of defenceless people because he did not approve of their politics.

This discussion has been closed.