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A reminder. The Tory Party is the party of law and order – politicalbetting.com
A reminder. The Tory Party is the party of law and order – politicalbetting.com
Big exclusive from @legalhackette Jonathan Ames & @matt_dathanRapists and burglars will be spared jail from next week after judges told prisons are fullCrown court judges ordered to delay sentencing hearings as prison population hits bursting pointhttps://t.co/wKDd6E50Yf
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I bet it can be tied to NIMBYism somehow too.
"When you speak to people on the ground (and yes, activists from all parties will say the canvassing is going great, that is par for the course) but the feeling seems to be that Labour think they are on the right path, the Tories know their vote will collapse but are still hopeful, whilst the Lib Dems are still working it extremely hard.
On the face of it that may seem like it is Labour who deservedly get the favourites spot but as anyone who has followed Liberal Democrat by-election campaigning, when the party are still going all out ten days out from polling day, they are quietly confident of getting the win. There has been no withdrawal of funds or a realisation that it is slipping away. Clearly the by-election specialists are still thinking the game is very much on.
Another (albeit very unscientific) approach is to see what social media is saying. A quick search on the platform formally known as Twitter for Mid Bedfordshire by-election terminology shows that probably 50-60% of posts from activists in the constituency are actually Lib Dems.
Labour are next up with a fair few Tories still out there hoping for a split in the vote, allowing them to slip right through the middle. That might mean nothing at all but seeing so many supporters for Emma Holland-Lindsay still turning out in their droves from across the country is noteworthy.
Anyone who has been an avid by-election watcher knows that there are still plenty of minds to be made up in the coming days. In this situation, it is pretty clear that there is significant anger about how the former MP acted and her decision to quit.
Cement their doom might be the right words here. It's the same dynamic that is going to see them punished for failing on small boats. If the Tory party can't even do very Toryish things well, like banging people up and deporting foreigners, then why would even their core vote bother?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xAs5EOBUDcs
The Rest is Politics.
On topic will any of these stories get airtime with the Israel war dominating the media
https://news.sky.com/story/israel-gaza-war-latest-hamas-palestine-sky-news-live-blog-12978800
"Labour has vowed to change the law to stop shoplifters who steal goods worth less than £200 escaping with a fine."
Hopefully this is all fog of war and minor incursions to poke the bear. If Israel was really attacked substantially from more than one front, the west wound have to consider direct support.
SKS Party Conference unbounce
SKS Fans please explain
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
Largest lead for the Conservatives since we started our Blue Wall tracker last October.
Blue Wall VI (7 October):
Conservative 36% (+5)
Labour 32% (-1)
Liberal Democrat 25% (-1)
Reform UK 4% (-2)
Green 3% (-1)
Other 1% (–)
Changes +/- 10 September
Sirens sounded in settlements across northern Israel as residents were warned of a significant infiltration, with “hostile aircraft” entering from Lebanon.
Drones were also approaching from Syria, where Iran-backed militias including Hezbollah have been building facilities targeted at Israel in recent years.
Hamas, which has launched five days of rocket and gun attacks from the southern Gaza strip, also said it had shelled the northern Israeli city of Haifa. There were no immediate reports of casualties.
A spokesman for the Israel Defence Forces said Israel was now facing war “on three fronts”....
...It was not immediately clear who the presumed attackers were. Palestinian militant groups including both Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad also have bases in southern Lebanon.
It is unlikely they would stage an assault without the approval of Hezbollah, however.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/israel-war-hamas-latest-news-gaza-updates-dmptn2hdb
Labour finished third in these seats in 2019 under your boy Corbyn.
The US/NWO want an excuse to attack Iran.
There is no way that Hamas could have done all that planning and training without Mossad and the CIA knowing about it.
Therefore the US and Israel knew what was going to happen and allowed it to happen (or even encouraged it covertly).
This gives Israel an excuse to clear Gaza and draw Iran into a wider conflict.
This gives the US an excuse to get involved supporting Israel in an attack on Iran.
This is Qanon Pizzagate levels of lunacy but it is widespread amongst the Trump supporting types over the last few days.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/aug/06/uk-prison-crisis-damages-justice-society-and-prisoners
The only dataset I can find starts in Jun 2011 and goes to Jun 2022, for "prison operational capacity" here - https://data.justice.gov.uk/prisons/offender-management#prison-opcap
Prison Capacity, June 2011: 87,902.
Prison Capacity, Jun, 2022: 82,857.
UK Population, 2011: 63.26m
UK Population, 2022: 67.50m
So prison capacity has fallen by 5.7% during an 11 year period in which population has increased by 6.7%.
A reminder that "build, build, build" doesn't just apply to houses, it applies to absolutely everything else.
I make it a 6% Con to Lab swing since then.
Flag Retirement Drop Boxes:
https://hiltonheadislandsc.gov/firerescue/flagbox.cfm
Biggest increase in Lab vote share since WW2
36 x F/A-18E (Strike/A2A)
12 x F/A-18F (Strike/Tanker)
5 x EA-18G (Suppression of Air Defence/Electronic Warfare)
5 x E-2D (AWACS)
8 x MH-60S (Replenishment/SAR/Sea Control)
11 x MH-60R (Maritime Strike)
2 x C-2A (Shore Replenishment)
That's a full set of golf clubs.
Actually more bonkers, because Corbyn lost. Major did actually manage a win.
https://board.tfl.gov.uk/documents/s20504/elc-20230725-part-1-item10-elizabeth-line-passenger-usage-insight.pdf
"New journeys" are much higher than expected, though it's hard to tell how much of that is due to the line accelerating the COVID recovery (e.g. more days in the office).
They're very fussy. No-one here thinks anything of UJ knickers, but (certainly in the C20) Old Glory underwear was very much frowned on over there.
"The 42 parliamentary constituencies that:
1) Are located in the South of England.
2) The Conservative Party won in 2019, 2017, and 2015.
3) Have a 25% or more population of university-degree holders.
4) Had a Remain vote share greater than 42.5%
5) The Conservative Party won in 2019 by less than 15,000 votes over the Liberal Democrats or by less than 10,000 votes over Labour."
So it includes a significant number of seats where Labour were second and is NOT a Tory/Lib Dem marginal poll (although it does include some of these). To name just a few, it includes Chingford, Hendon, Reading West, both Milton Keynes seats etc.
You are certainly right that the Tories won ALL these seats (and won them from 2015 onwards), and indeed the tweet notes this is a 12.5% swing to Labour - which is substantial. It's also the case that across the 42 seats, Labour were narrowly third in 2019.
But a lot of these are seats where Labour was second in 2019.
Equal biggest drop in the opposition's seat number since WW2: Labour or Conservative.
Edit to add: the 60 drop in Labour's seat total is tied with Michael Foot in 1983.
"If" I hadn't missed the boat train from Victoria, I'd have conquered Everest.
It reminded me to renew my strong commitment never to climb Everest.
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1712147224086368363
I thought Russia said all the Nazis were in Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/BarbaraRich_law/status/1712035565263032773
36 x F/A-18E - plane on Top Gun: Maverick
12 x F/A-18F - plane that carries fuel for other planes
5 x EA-18G - plane that stops the bad guys launching missiles at you
5 x E-2D - plane that knows where the bad guys are
8 x MH-60S - helicopter that rescues people
11 x MH-60R - helicopter that drops torpedoes on submarines
2 x C-2A - plane that brings food and fuel to people
This clip from Top Gun: Maverick shows a dialogue between an E2-D (Comanche) and F/A-18 (Dagger One)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NeCFdQObeHg&t=89s
So this isn't covering ANY seats Corbyn won even in his "Oh, Jeremy Corbyn" heyday, and Starmer winning any of them would be better than Corbyn did in either of his two General Election defeats.
Expectations were exceeded, but the party still lost. So there are high points to draw on, but it obviously was not enough, and was followed by bigger failure.
I don't think anyone has an issue recognising that 2017 happened (despite that being the confusing accusation), and against what people thought would happen represented a good result for Corbyn. But what good does it do to endlessly celebrate an increase in the vote that did not get them over the line as if that is all you need? If Sunak leads the Tories to hold onto largest party status but not enough to stay in power will his supporters bang on about that forevermore?
I'm on board bettingwise, as a party member, as a voter, and (most importantly) as a citizen. I have just this minute ordered my Sparkle With Starmer tee shirt from the club shop. I suggest you put your debilitating grudge aside and do the same. If you give me your size and colour I'd be happy to put it on my account.
Then the people saying it cry about being criticised, because mean tweets hurt dontchaknow, that's the real moral outrage.*
*or they in fact get to continue on in whatever job they had in the first place without criticism of course.
What the public actually want is fewer in prison because policing, prosecution, sentencing and rehabilitation has for years already been so effective that crime isn't a big issue.
Are we nearly there yet? Asking for a friend.
The purpose of propaganda is not to make you believe something. It is to make you believe nothing. So that you do nothing.
https://nitter.net/DarthPutinKGB/status/1711308852740722692#m
What that says about the price of eggs goodness only knows but it would appear that our lily-livered criminal justice system is overwhelmed by actual criminals.
We should build prisons in Sub-Saharan Africa for violent criminals.
That said the post-2019 Government has been without doubt the most appalling administration of my lifetime. After Johnson, I had high hopes of Sunak, but since he became PM he has lost every last shred of common sense. I though if they replace him with Mordaunt, I can live with that, but her speech last week confirmed she is hopeless. Which leaves us with a selection of absolute right wing roasters.
So despite my ambivalence towards Starmer, I do hope Labour win, and win big.
I do have a ton on a Conservative majority at 9/1 to soften any unexpected blow.
Bastion of online free speech struggles to contain disinformation amid severe staff cuts
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/10/11/fake-gaza-news-twitter-elon-musk-loses-grip-reality/ (£££)
Consider the similar US oath of enlistment - swearing allegiance to the Constitution:
"I, _____, do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same; and that I will obey the orders of the President of the United States and the orders of the officers appointed over me, according to regulations and the Uniform Code of Military Justice. So help me God."
(Old Glory seems OK for swimsuits.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GeLojnAG4VI
So, probably a bad thing that they did better than expected.
And, why did that happen? Because people didn't want the Tories to get their predicted landslide - not because they liked Corbyn's policies.
But there are quite a few political implications, which are worth discussing. Such as -
1. The possible impact on the US Presidential election. There are American hostages being held by Hamas. The US paid money to Iran recently in return for hostages. What impact might both of these facts have?
2. The London Mayoral election. Susan Hall made a very ill-judged attack on Sadiq Khan and how Jews feared him when in fact Khan has reacted entirely appropriately and sensitively to what has happened. She ought to withdraw her accusation.
3. It highlights what Starmer has achieved in Labour and undercuts any Tory claims that Starmer is somehow a Corbyn in a better suit.
4. What happens next in Gaza, how one fights an asymmetric war and the double standards shown by those who were not at all squeamish about how the West and its proxies defeated ISIS in Iraq but now expect Israel to behave as if it was playing some sort of polite cricket match.
5. What can be done to protect innocent Gazans from the wickedness of their leaders.
6. The possibilities of a wider Middle Eastern war and the economic consequences of that and indeed what is happening now.
7. The consequences for Israel itself and its internal politics. Will it cement Netanyahu in place or turf him out?
8. Will the West become war weary - first Ukraine, now this. What might this mean?
9. The response by some in this country - the realisation that those who use "fascist" and "genocide" to describe any tiny microaggression or refusal to do what is wanted seem incapable of using those words when they rather more accurately describe what is happening.
"I pledge allegiance to the flag of the United States of America, and to the Republic for which it stands, one nation, under God, with liberty and justice for all"
It's like a religious thing to them.
The correct way was to boost the Court System, perhaps even temporarily, to deal with 18-20% of the prison population who are held on remand, more quickly.
The vast increase is only an artefact of the last 2 years or so.
Rishi or one of his two predecessors could even have sold it as a short-term fix. Then they (& we) would not be in this hole.
Fieldwork was done up to and including 7th October. The Labour Party Conference started on 8th October.
Get a grip of yourself and grow up.
Rishi has done well to get a 'bounce' in the Blue Wall where his 'policies' would be manna from heaven.
To suggest that it's a "Conference unbounce' [sic] for Labour is foolish when the Labour Party Conference had yet to start.
One hugely encouraging report tonight though: Starmer committing in unambiguous language to giving the Nimbies a bloody good kicking. If the rhetoric is ultimately backed by solid commitments in the manifesto then I might actually have to turn out and vote Labour, despite my deep cynicism that it makes any real difference to anything at all.
https://lordslibrary.parliament.uk/short-prison-sentences-calls-for-change/#:~:text=What has the Government recently,sentences served in the community.
There was always bollocks on Twitter but the noise:signal ratio has deteriorated rapidly.
Say if a British or French or Japanese child is at a school in the USA?
Mid Beds isn't within the definition of the Blue Wall (as Con maj is too big) but even so it's in same part of country and must overall have quite similar characteristics.
So if swing is "only" 12.5% in Blue Wall, can Lab get 19% swing in Mid Beds?
I guess you would expect a higher swing due to the fact it's a by-election and also the Dorries factor. But even so it looks quite a tall order.
JohnO doesn’t bother with those, he mostly just reports comforting half-truths from inside the Corbynista bubble.
1. Not sure
2. Quite fortuitous that Susan made the appalling remark prior to subsequent developments. She is a clown, but they might help her against Khan
3. I suspect the Starmer served under anti-Semite could hurt.
4. Scorched earth. It helps Bibi salvage his domestic reputation, in the short term at least.
5. Quite probably, nothing.
6. Very probable.
7. The intelligence failure should have finished him. I fear the more retributive casualties will enhance him, and keep him out of jail.
8. Western Europe can't afford a Putin win, and the US have to ensure an Israeli win.
9. Emotive language is helpful for both sides.