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A tale of our two leading political parties – politicalbetting.com
A tale of our two leading political parties – politicalbetting.com
One photo is from Labour Party conference today. The other from Tory conference last week. Compare and contrast….. pic.twitter.com/Dq4FpTBp0n
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@JohnRentoul
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Proper rhetoric from Reeves. Well written, well delivered. More or less content-free
Wondering whether the Corbynites still left in Labour might sense an opportunity here to go full public with what is happening in the Middle East - not only do you sprout what you believe in and will have more of an audience than you usually do but, by doing so, you undermine SKS - whose position is rooted in the belief he can deliver a majority but is not loved - by hurting Labour.
• GB Energy
• National Wealth Fund
• CoL pegged minimum wage
Three big policy pledges.
I didn't watch the speech. Just happened to walk past at one point and heard her talk about more jobs, more electricians, more plumbers etc. No mention of how.
NY Times
So much misery and no sign of any hope of a solution.
I see the PB Tories on the last thread were laying into her for something she didn't say.
Also a few smaller, not terrible gimmicks - eg increasing stamp duty for foreigners buying homes in UK.
Though it is of course indisputable that Labour are the party on top at the moment.
She was good. Serious. Resolute.
She's auditioning for the role of chancellor, not the presenter of Strictly.
It may very well be that the Labour conference is better attended and more upbeat, as you might expect with a big poll lead. But I'm not sure these photos necessarily demonstrate that.
I mean I can understand many of his frustrations with the current sack of shit (and obviously he hates Brexit), but he certainly allows it to cloud his judgment.
He is not going to do those things because he doesn't believe in them. or...
He reason he is going to do those things is not because he doesn't believe in them.?
Problem with it, and other podcasts, as was said online last week it is largely people talking to each other who agree with each other or disagree at the margins.
It was a biographer of LBJ who said "power doesn't corrupt, it reveals". We've seen what has happened to the Labour party with SKS having power over it - why would he be any different when PM?
Their YouTube version of the podcast does very poorly, I presume the audio version must be doing ok. Although its Global who have pumped a load of money into starting these, so its difficult to tell how well they do business wise.
Spotify have taken a massive haircut over a similar strategy.
Given that it is early days for this new dispensation, I am prepared to be magnanimous, and ignore these tomfool remarks, or forgive them as childish errors
This lenience, however, is strictly time-limited
Struck me rather as weirdo populist alternate-dimension jamboree.
Justin Webb...
Tim Vickery coming on to talk about South American football in depth every Friday night was revolutionary at the time before we had the likes of the Athletic.
And if they make their podcast work, good for them. That's capitalism
Hamas lives off the hatred . Children are brought up with the hatred and it’s just a repeating cycle.
There are still those on both sides who wanted a peaceful resolution , sadly that’s been consigned to the bin for yet more years .
Israel can raze Gaza to the ground but the hatred will remain .
Advertising revenue sharing on Youtube is an option but, as you say, their hit rate is dire so they won't yield a great deal.
GB News was hoping to be able to monetise Youtube but their hitrate, same with Times Radio, also seems to be quite poor too.
GB energy seems to be the creation of a quango to do...err, exactly what the electricity sector is doing anyway.
National Wealth Fund appears to be the government investing in bits of the private sector that it thinks are undervalued. Picking winners I think it was called last time. Somehow I can't see it working out any better this time round either.
CoL pegged minimum wage if it has any effect at-all is the government spending other people's money. Minimum wages do one of two things - either nothing (the situation at the moment, where virtually anyone with a pulse can find a job that pays better), or they destroy the employment prospects of those who add marginal value. Pick your poison. If they wanted to make low earners better off, they should peg the income tax thresholds against inflation, rather than letting them function as massive stealth taxes.
Reeves says Labour would cut government spending on consultants...
Twitter/X is now also offering revenue sharing so there is also a chance there too. But, you are probably right, the monetisation is tiny.
I do wonder if that is what the Israelis are planning. I don't see any other point in wading into Gaza at the cost of many thousands of lives, quite a few of them Israeli
However under PR most Corbynites would be voting for a party left of Starmer Labour
Everyone knows that Labour are the Government-in-Waiting
Labour are seeking election. The media, the opposition, and crucially the voters ('low tax and brilliant public services please') are not honest dealers. And of course no party can tell the voters they are dishonest, self interested rogues.
There are times when the Israel/Palestine events of right now would have scuppered Labour altogether. (Anyone recall Mr Corbyn?). There will be plenty more such elephant traps both planned and unplanned before the election.
Labour seem to have learned. Good.
Thanks.
News Agents is primarily a podcast, which releases a single daily episode produced for audio. I'd imagine their YT is pretty much added bonus. Their overheads, less the salaries, will be minute - especially as it's owned by Global, whose studios and production they can access.
Their money will be made via sponsored reads and ads in the podcast. It is also a flagship podcast for Global, who like a lot of big media owners are playing catchup to Acast in this game.
But in short - I don't think a meaningful comparison can be drawn between News Agents and GB News based on their YT output and consumption.
1. The status quo is maintained with a ceasefire or similar. It is hard to see this.
2. Gaza’s current “status” is maintained but with Israel driving Hamas from power - a possible outcome but what replaces Hamas? Not entirely convincing that Israel will take that option, if it just means the cycle begins anew.
3. Full occupation of Gaza with some form of Israeli-backed government. Does create the potential for a long and bloody occupation and guerilla warfare.
4. The ‘nuclear option’ of Gaza being largely depopulated and fully annexed.
None of these options are good ones. The fifth (negotiated peace and a lasting solution) sadly looks far too remote to even suggest.
Actually delivering the policy will be hard.
If Egypt seals the border (and they have tightened control this morning) then Israel will be left with a cornered population unable to go anywhere. What then?
I may be wrong and this isn't the Israeli plan, but then I am bewildered as to what Israel thinks it can achieve with ANOTHER invasion that does nothing but stir up evermore enmity. It simply ensures further attacks down the line
As I said last night, they might possibly be planning a renewed Occupation of Gaza, with Israel in control, and the reintroduction of Israeli settlers, who will act as a de facto spy network and military police, so October 7 is not repeated. But that's damnably tricky and could so easily go wrong
The final possibility is that Israel doesn't have a plan. It is acting in a spirit of pure revenge
The key to events in Gaza is going to be Egypt and what they choose to do or not do.
I shouldn't think Sisi is keen on a bunch of hardline fundamentalist terrorists seeking refuge in his country especially after his "dealings" with the Muslim Brotherhood.
There will be huge international pressure, however, to allow women, children and the elderly to leave but what then? Who will help Egypt support this new round of refugees? The UN, Saudi Arabia, Dubai? Does Sisi seriously want Northern Sinai to become a giant refugee camp?
The alternative is to close the borders and be seen to be complicit in the eyes of many in the Arab world with Israeli actions.
It's not something about which Europe can afford to be sanguine - if Eriteans, Afghans and Chadeans can make it to Calis so can Gazans in time. A diaspora of tens if not hundreds of thousands on Europe's borders must be a concern to Europe which is already "struggling" with "hurricanes" of migration.
Although it isn't the same, it is worth noting many "audio" podcasts that don't even do a daily episode do very well on YouTube, hence why basically everybody films their creations (including News Agents).
I would imagine Global will be very disappointed just how little traction they have got on YouTube, as at the very least its free advertising for people to listen to full show via audio on the go. 32k subs and most videos getting low k's is very poor for some thing with high profile people with big social media following.
But Jeez they are bleak
All I am saying is there is always another potential side of the story, be objective Mike, every picture does not necessarily tell a tale. What time were they taken, who was doing what, probably a biased unfair comparison.
In this instance I suspect they were at the meeting being addressed by Truss, far more interesting, as the media found it to be.
I really don't believe the anti-Semitism we see is a result of the existence of Israel. Zionism *may* be a compounding factor, but anti-Semitism has existed for Millenia, long before modern Israel.
If Jews were to leave Israel tomorrow and spread out to every other country in the world, the same people will find reasons to hate them. Again, as has happened for so many generations.
for this reason, I can understand why Jews feel they need a land in which they can feel safe.
I listened to a podcast the other week, which featured someone talking about his granddad, who had been in a concentration camp. His grandfather was lucky enough to be liberated, and had asked a Russian where he should go. "Don't go west," the Russian said, because there was fighting there. "Don't go east, either," he also said. Because they did not want them.
Hence, Israel.
Both sides want all out war, with no quarter given. So I guess that is what will happen
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/10/09/israel-hamas-war-american-left-matt-duss-00120536
The fact that this isn't even - and shouldn't be - on the list of possible outcomes speaks volumes.
I mean, we'd have genuine competition in the political sphere, and a real risk to the Big Two that they wouldn't automatically be either in power or the only feasible alternative. And the ability to vote positively for who we want without having to agonise over who we 'might let in.' We can't possibly risk that.
However, this does not explain WHY Jews are smarter. And the best theory for that is that anti-Semitism over centuries has meant that only the brightest Jews survived and reproduced, driving up average Jewish IQ. But then that suggests that anti-Semitism preceded Jewish cleverness....
Confusing
AfD will lead the opposition with 28 seats with the SPD down six to 23 and the Greens down seven to 22.
In Bavaria, the CSU held its 85 seats which is still historically a poor result for what was once a party which enjoyed a clear Landtag majority. The Free Voters gained ten seats to 37 and AfD will form the opposition gaining ten themselves to 32. The Greens were down six to 32 and the SDP down five to just 17 but the big losers were the FDP who lost 11 seats polling just 3%.
In Luxembourg, Xavier Bettel's Government lost its majority in the Chamber of Deputies ending with 29 out of a possible 60 seats. The Greens lost five seats while the Democratic Party gained one and the Social Democrats gained two. The leading Christian Social Party comfortably topped the poll with 29% of the poll and 21 seats.
The Pirates won 3 seats and the Left two seats.
This is the language of total war, neither side will step back. The Gazans think they have nothing to lose if they fight, Israel thinks it has everything to lose if it does not fight
They are the story that parties tell to the world.
The header is a fair representation of how successful those narratives have been, so far.
I found this an interesting interview when it was released a few weeks ago, that has more poignancy now:
https://podtail.com/podcast/it-could-happen-here/the-weaponizing-of-anti-semitism-with-adam-broombe/
Adam Broomberg is a Jewish anti-Zionist activist who grew up in South Africa under the apartheid regime. His grandparents entered South Africa after fleeing Europe and became "accepted" in white society. He was educated in a Jewish Zionist school system, and has family members who live in Israel. He discusses his journey to anti-Zionism, his relation to activism, and how he has been called an anti-Semite by many Jewish and non-Jewish people. It was an interesting listen in late September when it released, and I think is an interesting perspective given the international situation now.
I would also add that many Jewish people are not Zionists, and conflating Israel and Jewish people is and of itself an anti Semitic trope. I completely agree with you that in a world without Israel anti Semitism would not go away, it is something I think many countries in the world have not properly grappled with. One of the criticisms of Zionism from some within the Jewish community is how it has been used by countries as a get out clause for their anti Semitism - to a) tell all their Jewish population to leave and go be good Israelis and b) to then hide their anti Semitism behind their support for Israel.
To quote myself again from the previous thread:
Over the last few years I have been listening to Daniel Khan - a Jewish folk / punk singer. One of the songs he sings, which is a translation of "Oh you foolish little zionists" (1931), has the stanza:
You want to take us to Jerusalem
So we can die as a nation
We'd rather stay in the Diaspora
And fight for our liberation
"Hmm... about since I was fifteen?"
In a video message played immediately after Ms Reeves’ speech in Liverpool this afternoon, Mr Carney said: “Rachel Reeves is a serious economist. She began her career at the Bank of England, so she understands the big picture.
“But, crucially she also understands the economics of work, of place and of family. It is beyond time to put her ideas and energy into action.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nakam
Again, the German based folk / punk klezmer band Daniel Khan & the Painted Birds wrote a song about it. It, somewhat sadly, ends on these words:
They put aside their rage and hate
And worked to build a Jewish state
With Jewish towns and Jewish farms
Jewish guns and nuclear arms
Now can vengeance put upon the shelf
Be taken out later on someone else?
Be careful how you read this tale
Lest your own prejudice prevail
Look around the world today
And consider the role that vengeance plays
For History has its unpaid debts
And is it better if we forget?
Six million Germans
You might say it was absurd
Six million Germans
But what becomes of a dream deferred?
Six million Germans
How could they just start again?
Six million Germans
They wanted one thing, Nakam: Revenge
I've long deplored Israel's behaviour too, FWIW, in Gaza and in the West Bank - and in some respects what we're seeing now is a partial consequence of Bibi's hard line and his unsophisticated diplomacy.
I still have a forlorn, fool's hope for a lasting solution. But that cause has been set back dramatically.
Anyway, it was of course the era when the Reds won at will, and City had racked up a couple of decades without a trophy. There was a well known and much used caricature of a City fan, Bertie Magoo Bitter Blue and the term Bitters was used for Blues fans.
I say all this because the edge on your comment gave me flashbacks to that era and I couldn't help but smile. Bitter blues indeed.
4 solves this particular problem for ever. Different problems may arise but they will be physically further away. I think it is what I would do if I was a hard line Israeli if I could ignore the mass international opprobrium that would follow. And - no, I don't condone it.
It’s an obvious and artificial contrast, that someone was going to highlight, but I am disappointed that it was him. Fair enough for this website to repost it of course, as it has an agenda and is entitled to advance it.
It's nice to dream, but why on earth would Israel agree to a ceasefire now? Just after 700 Israelis have died in a day?
I repeat the context. Accounting for population, 700 dead Israelis would be the same as 5000 Britons killed in a single day (for comparison, the worst day of the Blitz killed about 1300). The equivalent in America would be 23,000 Americans killed in a single day - almost ten times the number that died in 9/11
So this is WORSE than 9/11. And there is no way America would have "declared a ceasefire" in the days after 9/11. America set itself to vengeance; Israel does the same
Surly the only comparison with any merit would be from how the hall looked for Jeremy Hunts speech Vs Reeves?
A former top aide for Bernie Sanders on how Israel’s critics on the political left see the Hamas attack and what this means for deal-making in the region.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/10/09/israel-hamas-war-american-left-matt-duss-00120536
So the Israeli goal will I believe be simple - remove Hamas as a threat. How they achieve that is tricky, but they won't just be pushing the cross-border terrorists back into their prison.
Removal of Hamas - and the Hamas state - has to be the goal. And that will largely mean the killing of anyone who is Hamas, supports Hamas, lives near Hamas. It is going to be awful - war usually is. Especially when the aggressor is pledged to the extermination of the other side.
Israel wants this problem "solved". The only way you solve it is by destroying Gaza as an entity forever and shifting the Gazans further away from Israel, with a cordon sanitaire around them so they cannot menace Jews
The only place they can be "pushed" is Egypt, so this runs a grave risk of a new hot war between Jerusalem and Cairo
Great
Yours are fine words, but wherever they settled, the curse of anti-Semitism will have followed.
However, what I mentioned FPT may be a better bet, namely Egypt and Israel turn Gaza into a co-ruled state. The Egyptians can then do the hard crackdown stuff on Hamas and the internal order while the Israelis give them support and fund Gaza. In Egypt's case, that would probably mean giving them tons of money / Western weapons plus recognition for Sisi and a blind eye to what he does. However, as a solution, it may work.
I do get the comparison with 9/11 in terms of impact, but the subsequent engagement and context is fundamentally different. Hamas run Gaza. Al-Qaeda didn't run anywhere. And Gaza is right next door, not the other side of the world, with both entities having been in a state of intermittent war for decades.
All that does is make me wonder why he wasn't sacked much sooner rather than thinking she must be competent.
So a ceasefire basically = annihilation of much of Gaza. The firing will cease because one side will be dead
Rishi Sunak says UK is ‘poised’ to offer Israel military help if required
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/oct/09/rishi-sunak-uk-poised-israel-military-help
Unfortunately I doubt Egypt will be interested, but maybe a TON of money could do it