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Are Sunak riches going to be a negative for him? – politicalbetting.com
Are Sunak riches going to be a negative for him? – politicalbetting.com
One thing that is becoming more likely is Sunak will be leading the Tories at the general election. In doing so he will probably be the richest person ever to head the party at such a contest.
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Whilst many are coming around to seeing this now, not all are. The main group of those who are so blind that they cannot see the oncoming Tory devastation are Westminster MPs. Many of whom will go back to their constituencies and prepare for either opposition or a new job, unless they start writing letters to Sir Graham rather sharpish.
Amongst local activists (and relatives thereof) in my constituency association, several have told me they can't bring themselves to vote for a Sunak led party that slashes HS2 and puts up taxes.
This is why I see the 24-25% vote share that the current polls are suggesting as about right.
What wealth does typically correlate to are things like compassion and empathy - in the sense that a lot of evidence points to a vast accumulation of wealth and power reducing an individuals capacity for those things. As you get wealthier your experiences become less like those of typical people and you forget (or never have to experience) the normal experiences others have to (How much could a banana cost? $10?). That's why the "what's the cost of a pint of milk" question is important - not because you know it, but because for a lot of households a fluctuation of cost on that item is pretty significant to their wellbeing and their children's' wellbeing.
Though often it seems to help if you are an entrepreneur like they were rather than establishment rich (like say Romney and Kerry and Sunak worked for Goldman Sachs). At the end of the day though the key is the message you are putting forward and how the economy is doing rather than your background and having had a successful career and made some money before going into politics should be a good thing not a negative
Inflation is also coming down and interest rates are stabilising, at the end of the day focusing on that and sorting out the economy is far more important than yet another pointless leadership change. Indeed when Truss resigned the Labour lead was actually about 10% more than it is now, so Sunak has improved the Tory poll rating from where Truss left it
I'm surprised that they would feel strongly about plodding on with HS2 and would seek lower taxes in the face of the pandemic borrowing that has crippled our country especially now interest rates are higher.
https://www.kingsleynapley.co.uk/our-news/press-releases/yougov-poll-shows-majority-support-raising-iht-threshold-above-325k-despite-eyewatering-public-finance-decisions-ahead
And Rishi doesn't even begin to have Trump or Berlusconi's skills in shithousery.
(And Trump was never an 'entrepreneur' FFS. He was a rich guy's kid.)
Compounded unfortunately for him by the rather unfortunate alliterative name he has of being Richie Rish.
He does come across as entitled, out of touch and patronising. On the other hand, he is not nuts like Truss, or a congenital liar like Johnson, so there is that. I'm not sure he can be replaced right now, or if anyone else wants the job. I actually think he should just call an election now, the public might respect him for it, the government is out of ideas and I think that things are more likely to get worse for the Tories than better.
https://twitter.com/IhateTrenches/status/1706071343899312466
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.leicestermercury.co.uk/news/local-news/mothballed-regional-fire-control-building-6943357.amp
Sunak's problem is that the very obvious criticisms if he does cut it are that he and and his family have a great deal to gain personally from lower IHT, and the financial cost of doing it would pay for the rebuilding of however many schools that he decided not to bother with as Chancellor.
Yes
Next.
Abandoning the HS2 in order to fund a tax cut of c. £270m for his own little children says it all.
It doesn't matter who the leader is. I think this sums it up.
Chunks of people up and down the country who are ideologically conservative will not be voting for the Conservative Party; either sitting on their hand and moaning or voting for a party counter to their ideology.
And the number of armed police officers who think they have committed murder to the number who know they haven’t.
The issue comes when people don't pay their "fair share". If rich people have ways to get around paying taxes they should be paying, people will get resentful, especially when those rich people will also still have access to good services on the basis that they are rich and can pay for them whilst ordinary people see services getting worse.
If you are a Johnson or even a Cameron you are perceived to be of a different world so it's fine if you are wedged up. If you are the son of a GP then you are relatable and if you are relatable then you must not be too rich.
Increasingly though, he seems as divorced as Cameron from what public services are actually FOR. Wealth is a particular problem for a politician when you allow yourself to withdraw into your own narrow bubble of life experience, and Rishi appears to have done just that (has to be noted that not only the wealthy can narrow themselves like this).
That he spend six months in front of a complicated whiteboard to come to the conclusions he did, rather than just going for it, does not credit him - a whiteboard does not an administrator make.
So, the Conservatives give us another cycle of Olivia Rodrigo emotional governance, Rishi having moved on from the 'Bad Idea, Right' phase that Boris and Truss barely had, directly into a frenzy of 'Fuck it, it's fine'.
The main thing everyone knows about Rishi is that he is unimaginably wealthy.
His political vision is tiny state with low taxes.
He's a numbers geek. One of the problems with maths is that proofs are either correct or they're wrong. There's no need to develop the art of persuasion through words, and he doesn't have it. There's a skill of making a clear logical chain- it's what a lot of science teaching is actually about- but few 50:50 cases where the words matter. (It's also why the science and politics of the environment is often a dialogue of the deaf.) Sunak is rubbish at persuasion, and gets notably wound up when contradicted.
Any one of those is probably survivable. Rich politicians who survive tend to a bit of noblesse oblige, a bit of Lord Grantham about them. Macmillan, Hezza, Dave, Benn (A).
If you want to sucessfully argue for low taxes, you need to not benefit massively from them personally. Or people will doubt your motives.
If you're not great at persuasion, you can still be a useful politician, but only staying in the consensus.
One is survivable, two is difficult. Rishi has all three problems.
(But if not Sunak, then who?)
Getting supplies from Kyiv to Verbove is easier than from Berlin to Leningrad.
Army drivers represent the biggest threat on the road to anyone, other cars, pedestrians, those travelling at 20mph, even cyclists in cycle lanes.
Armed armed forces on the streets, heaven help us.
“We’re going to cancel it. No we’re not. Yes we are. No we’re gonna half cancel it. No it’s going to end in Willesden. No it’s gonna end near that Aldi by the betting shop. No that’s all wrong we’re going to delay it by 638 years”
Take away the politics and economics and just look at the PR. The retail display. The terrible
pantomime that everyone can see. It’s a shameful mess and it makes them look like pitiful clueless ditherers (even if they’re not; but I think they are)
That’s all on them. There’s no one at home. They need putting out of their misery - and ours
For one thing, they are all convinced that if they shoot someone, they’ll be in the shit. As opposed to the whole Army downing tools.
If they do leave it unfinished it will be the largest memorial ever to a government that ballsed it up.
Finish it. Preferably with a long distance cycle path alongside it.
Doesn't work quite that wat in terms of the 325/500K. The 175k pertains to the house specifdically. It is used in full only if (a) the share in the house is wirth as much as 175K and (b) goes to a child/grandchild.
So watch out for wills that put the house in a pool fo assets some or all of which go to people other than children/grandchildren.
Obviously wills that leave the house to children/grandchildren should be OK tax wise - I am not so sure about the other way round. Certainly when I did a small deed of variation on my father's will I made sure that the assets transferred were clearly stated as not being the house, but cash from a separate asset.
I wonder if you need to get a solicitor or accountant to check it over?
I’m sorry but you are completely wrong.
The Bank was lying to you (and maybe to themselves). They were printing money because there were not enough buyers for third parties to finance the government’s funding needs.
Partial sterilisation accepts that’s a reality.
The “losses” are not cash payments. They are an accounting fiction. The Bank is not a standalone entity - it is a wholly owned subsidiary of the government. It’s the consolidated accounts that matter, not the accounts of an individual entity within it.
More information about yesterday’s Khalino military airfield incident. As per Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine:
At the airfield "Khalino" in the Kursk region, a Ukrainian drone was landed by Russian electronic warfare systems on the runway. When the leadership of the aviation regiment and FSB officers arrived for closer inspection drone exploded. As claimed, the following were killed or injured during the explosion:
→ commander of the 14th aviation regiment;
→ one of his deputies;
→ a group of aviator officers;
→ a representative of the FSB military counterintelligence;
→ airport employees.
https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1706237220758147200?s=20
Interestingly the WaPo poll everyone is getting excited about had the majority of responders blaming Biden for the impending GOP shutdown.
Which further suggests an over representation of Republicans in the polling.
So Tories closer to Labour than the LDs are to the Tories
https://twitter.com/wethinkpolling/status/1705212954545643899
You're claiming the Bank were lying all along, but they're still denying that as are the Treasury who are making plans to make taxpayers liable for any losses.
If £200bn of taxpayers money gets transferred from the Treasury to the Bank of England and 'sterilised' then that is a cash payment, not an accounting fiction.
I was vehement that a PB left poster should go out of their way to ensure he WAS called Boris and encourage the strong branding, because the Ratnering was only a matter of time.
I think I hear a legendary modesty klaxon in the distance somewhere.
If your main priority is spending more on schools you will be voting Labour anyway
Carbuncle, more like.
So Rishi wants to can the whole project (which coincidentally is probably what he wanted all along), but can't quite do that because that really would be insane.
From that perspective, a lot of his actions and attitudes make a certain sort of sense.
We've got another blooming year of this.
Plus look at the trend around the western world,in Germany the CDU is back ahead after losing power just 2 years ago, in the US Trump is ahead again despite losing power just 3 years ago and his legal problems.
In France, Spain, Canada and NZ the opposition lead polls. The economy is volatile, inflation is high and the mood is anti incumbent
"A party of 40 senior German officers and civilians who were on a tour of Campbeltown were killed. In total, the explosion killed about 360 men"
Now that's a legacy to be proud of.
That. Was. Not. The. Point. Of. HS2.
It was always about increasing capacity on the existing lines for freight, and thus a good thing. Get those bloody lorries of the motorways and onto trains, preferably driven by overhead electric.
Lorries only for the last few miles.
And yet all we here about is quicker journeys. Whoever was responsible for marketing ought to be fired.
CON in complete meltdown now, could do well to get 150!!
But HY especially keeps saying how right whatever the latest stupid is and even tries to moralise even as he eulogises the latest immorality.
It isn't a case of the Tories will lose. Or even that they deserve to lose. Its that they deserve to be crushed, and increasing numbers of people are reaching that conclusion with increasing clarity.
Lorries don't need an entire motorway, bulk of the time they only take one lane and not the one lane people want to drive on anyway.
Building more motorways instead would both boost the ability to carry freight and passengers and allow connection of towns and cities that are not currently connected to the network. As well as provide more redundancy for if an accident closes the motorway, better to have another available than towns as rat runs.
All it tells us is that police fear that grieving relatives may use social media to lash out at them as individuals and that their senior management are spineless bastards who would throw their officers to the wolves without a second thought
But for all he was given a weak hand, Sunak is playing it extremely badly.
Admittedly with a fair bit of strategic voting, in terms of seats won, it's not at all unlikely that Labour will hammer the Tories in Red Wall seats and the SNP in Scotland. While the LDs (or occasionally the Greens) will hammer the Tories in Blue Wall seats, and Reform will produce Farage's usual nice round number of seats - while delivering 5-10% or so of Red and Blue Wall votes, helpfully ensuring those extreme right wingers all waste their votes.
Of course, if the strategic voting goes awry, the Tories may retain enough Blue Wall seats to beat the LDs overall, as the anti-Tory vote gets split three ways.
Say what you like about FPTP - but at least it ensures weak and unstable government.
The first step to working this out should be to classify where Scotland is now. That's what I've attempted below.
Methodology. Using the results of the 2019 general election in Scottish constituencies, and keeping ONLY the votes of the four "main" parties, I've used a clustering algorithm to group similar constituencies. All the percentages below are therefore the percentages of the total cast for SNP, Con, Lab, and LD. I've done this because clustering algorithms are vulnerable to biases created by parties standing in some seats and not others. There is an argument for accepting this but I've decided against that. There's also an argument for adding Green votes onto the SNP score but I've again decided against this.
I also played around with the number of clusters. I wanted 6 but I was getting some obvious subclusters merged together. Ten clusters looked too overfitted, so I settled on eight. There are a couple of constituencies that feel out of place, notably Lanark and Hamilton East, but that's a problem with all lumping tasks. It's not perfect, but it's a starting point.
Without further ado:
These are seats where the SNP have a solid grip and the main challenger is generally Labour. Tories on mid teens and LDs below 10%
Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East, Dundee West, Edinburgh East, Glasgow North West, Glasgow South, Glenrothes, Inverclyde, Paisley and Renfrewshire South, West Dunbartonshire
Group 2: "Glasgow left"
These are seats generally around Glasgow where the SNP are in charge but Labour are very strong. Tories in low teens, LDs usually below 5%
Airdrie and Shotts, Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill, Glasgow Central, Glasgow East, Glasgow North, Glasgow North East, Glasgow South West, Motherwell and Wishaw, Rutherglen and Hamilton West
Group 3: "Rural Tories"
These are seats that have a strong rural element with small towns or far suburbs. The Tories are very strong, 35%+. Labour and LDs generally each below 10%.
Aberdeen South, Angus, Argyll and Bute, Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock, Banff and Buchan, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, Dumfries and Galloway, Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale, East Renfrewshire, Gordon, Moray, Ochil and South Perthshire, Perth and North Perthshire, West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine
Group 4: "Lib Dem hinterland"
These are seats where the Lib Dems have a very strong foothold. The Lib Dems get more than a third of their overall vote in just these six seats. SNP on a third to a half, Con in the teens and Lab below 10%.
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross, East Dunbartonshire, Edinburgh West, North East Fife, Orkney and Shetland, Ross, Skye and Lochaber
Group 5: "Edinburgh South"
Ian Murray's Morningside seat. SNP 26% Con 17% Murray 49% LD 8%. No other seat like it.
Edinburgh South
Group 6: "nationalist right"
These are seats where the SNP have a solid grip and the main challenger is Conservative. Labour on mid teens and LDs below 10%. Similar to group 1, swapping Lab and Con.
Aberdeen North, Central Ayrshire, Dundee East, Edinburgh South West, Falkirk, Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey, North Ayrshire and Arran, Stirling
Group 7: "Three-way"
These are seats where the third place party is on more than 20% and the SNP looking a little vulnerable.
East Lothian, Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, Midlothian, Na h-Eileanan an Iar
Group 8: "Nationalist centre"
These are generally seats where it's not always obvious who the main challenger to the SNP is. SNP generally "safer" than in the three-ways but otherwise similar to group 7.
Dunfermline and West Fife, East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow, Edinburgh North and Leith, Kilmarnock and Loudon, Lanark and Hamilton East, Linlithgow and East Fakirk, Livingston, Paisley and Renfrewshire North
Genius. Please never change, @HYUFD
The economic situation and inflation situation is more like the 1960s and 1970s than 1997, there will be no golden economic period for Starmer, he will become unpopular relatively quickly as PM given the decisions he will have to take and will not get a Blair like honeymoon of any sustained length
Yes, I know the Blair factor isn't there any more, but does this government really deserve to do about as well as that?
Plus Starmer leads Sunak as preferred PM by much less than Blair led Major in 1997 or Hague in 2001
So even on that argument it looks like HS2.382 (non-HS version 5) will be a mindblowingly expensive failure
Rail is absolutely fantastic for moving humongous volumes of the same product, from the same source, to the same destination. Nothing comes close to rail for that. IE moving coal from a mine, to a power plant.
For the modern economy it makes no sense whatsoever, which is why rail's share of freight transportation has collapsed following the demise of coal. This is to be welcomed not mourned, as the death of coal is great for our air quality and the environment.
This is a similar reason why rail works well with cities for passengers, because then you're moving high volumes [of people] to the same destination, ie central London. But freight doesn't want to go to the same destination.
If you want to boost capacity for freight then build more motorways for lorries to drive down - with the other 2 lanes of a motorway being available to be well used by the public too.
Sunak won't be applauded for just getting his homework in on time.
And you’ve completely lost me. No way I vote Tory in ‘24. And I might even vote Labour, because we need a solid government with a powerful majority and because I want to see the Tories humiliated and crushed. So they learn
It is that bad. Sorry.
The PM's own position is that the next Government (whether his or someone else's) will enjoy a significantly improved economic outlook.
But I don't think they will.
(Serious question - not taking the piss, tempting though it is.)
I think October with the by-elections and conferences will take us genuinely into a GE run up mindset and no dodging it if the BE narratives are inconclusive this time. The relative ratings could well change in the next few weeks.
I've voted Labour when 18 in 2001, then Tory in 5/5 elections since.
According to HYUFD that means I should 'f*** off and join the Lib Dems' as I'm not a real Tory anyway.
Often its said we 'get the government we deserve' as an electorate, but when a party takes the attitude that only the pure should vote for the party and everyone else should 'f*** off' then they will get the electoral result they deserve.
https://x.com/lewis_goodall/status/1706237898201161810?s=20
All the focus on HS2 is on what happens next rather than the last 10 years. Whatever decision is made there are serious questions about the competence of the British state and successive administrations that a 330 mile high-speed train line has proven (apparently) impossible.