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Sunak’s personal polling drops to record low – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,794
edited September 2023 in General
imageSunak’s personal polling drops to record low – politicalbetting.com

These latest numbers from YouGov are very much in the line with what we have been seeing from other pollsters. It is now hard to see how the PM could turn it round.

Read the full story here

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  • Options
    FishingFishing Posts: 4,591
    148grss said:

    I mean, further evidence in my mind that the hesitancy for a big Labour majority is just ignoring the data before our eyes.

    Just like before 1997. Hence, inter alia, Blair's bizarre and deceitful dance with Ashdown about electoral reform.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,972
    edited September 2023
    So we go from OGH deciding Boris was an electoral liability last year and had to be replaced by Rishi to now Rishi is an electoral liability who has to be replaced. Yet as the chart shows Rishi still polls better than his party (in contrast to Starmer who polls slightly worse than Labour does), has cut inflation and improved the party's poll rating a bit since he replaced Truss as PM.

    The fact is most alternatives to Rishi would be polling even worse, Mordaunt might poll fractionally better but she is too woke for Tory MPs and members to elect her
  • Options
    Rishi could turn things around by dispelling the notion the country is falling apart in every dimension.

    Leon has flagged up one relatively easy fix, with these dangerous dogs, but as ever, the devil is in the detail. Banning dogs is the easy part. What actually will happen to remove existing dogs? An amnesty scheme as with knives and guns, but with vets standing by at police stations to administer the coup de grace? A dogs hotline? To be serious, the government must actually do something besides running the Home Secretary's mouth.

    Here is something else: county lines.

    Gangs grooming children as young as 7 to deal drugs and rob people, under threat of violence
    ...
    Some 41% of all cases of suspected modern slavery in the UK last year involved children.

    https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/gangs-grooming-children-as-young-as-7-to-deal-drugs/

    And I think we can all agree enslaving 7-year-olds is, on balance, a bad thing, but once more, what will the government actually do? This is already illegal, the whole ecosystem is already illegal, so what will the government do besides blame Keir Starmer?

    That is the point, there are many other issues, from Wilko to RAAC, on which the government seems impotent and often barely interested. If Rishi wants to stand any chance of winning the next election, he must prove the government is on the side of the people, and make a start on fixing some of our problems.
  • Options

    Rishi could turn things around by dispelling the notion the country is falling apart in every dimension.

    Leon has flagged up one relatively easy fix, with these dangerous dogs, but as ever, the devil is in the detail. Banning dogs is the easy part. What actually will happen to remove existing dogs? An amnesty scheme as with knives and guns, but with vets standing by at police stations to administer the coup de grace? A dogs hotline? To be serious, the government must actually do something besides running the Home Secretary's mouth.

    He could personally take part in a police raid and put down a Bully XL in front of the cameras.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    So we go from OGH deciding Boris was an electoral liability last year and had to be replaced by Rishi to now Rishi is an electoral liability who has to be replaced. Yet as the chart shows Rishi still polls better than his party (in contrast to Starmer who polls slightly worse than Labour does), has cut inflation and improved the party's poll rating a bit since he replaced Truss as PM.

    The fact is most alternatives to Rishi would be polling even worse, Mordaunt might poll fractionally better but she is too woke for Tory MPs and members to elect her

    Yeah, its the Tory party the country have had enough of. The only fix to that is opposition, not pass the parcel.
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    Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,595
    FPT: 148grs claimed that '. . . in the House gerrymandering has gotten so out of control that the GOP control significantly more seats than they "should".' (They were corrected by two or three other commenters, but I am not sure they really accepted the corrections.)

    How often has the "wrong" party, the party with fewer popular votes, won control of the House? In 2012, and four times in the 20th century: "Although Democratic candidates received a nationwide plurality of more than 1.4 million votes (1.1%) in the aggregated vote totals from all House elections,[3] the Republican Party won a 33-seat advantage in seats, thus retaining its House majority by 17 seats. Democrats picked up 27 previously Republican-held seats, but most of these gains were canceled out due to Republican pick-ups of Democratic-held seats, and reapportionment gains that benefited Republicans, leaving the Democrats with a net gain of just eight seats.[4]

    This disparity – common in close elections involving single-member district voting[5] – has sometimes been attributed to targeted Republican gerrymandering in the congressional redistricting process following the 2010 United States Census.[6][7][8][9][10] However, "unintentional gerrymandering," --the high concentration of Democrats in urban centers--leading to "wasted votes" in districts that easily elected Democratic candidates, was likely a more significant factor than partisan gerrymandering. [11][9][12] The GOP also benefited from having a greater number of incumbents, who tend to have an advantage in elections[9] which may have helped Republicans win close elections for individual seats.

    In the 20th century, the party with a plurality of the popular vote was unable to receive a majority in the House on four occasions- 1952 and 1996, in which the Republicans held a majority in the House. Meanwhile, the 1914 and 1942 elections were the last time that the Democrats won a majority in the House without winning the popular vote."
    source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,974
    HYUFD said:

    So we go from OGH deciding Boris was an electoral liability last year and had to be replaced by Rishi to now Rishi is an electoral liability who has to be replaced. Yet as the chart shows Rishi still polls better than his party, has cut inflation and improved the party's poll rating a bit since he replaced Truss as PM.

    The fact is most alternatives to Rishi would be polling even worse, Mordaunt might poll fractionally better but she is too woke for Tory MPs and members to elect her

    Rishi is an electoral liability who will prevent Labour from getting a majority.

    I mean, I know the basic mantra that betting value is about odds, but when Mike consistently says he's not convinced by the idea that Labour will get a majority, he's not necessarily been highlighting the prices on offer on that: his unconvincedness seems to come from a more basic place.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,972
    edited September 2023

    HYUFD said:

    So we go from OGH deciding Boris was an electoral liability last year and had to be replaced by Rishi to now Rishi is an electoral liability who has to be replaced. Yet as the chart shows Rishi still polls better than his party (in contrast to Starmer who polls slightly worse than Labour does), has cut inflation and improved the party's poll rating a bit since he replaced Truss as PM.

    The fact is most alternatives to Rishi would be polling even worse, Mordaunt might poll fractionally better but she is too woke for Tory MPs and members to elect her

    Yeah, its the Tory party the country have had enough of. The only fix to that is opposition, not pass the parcel.
    And then Labour have to deal with the economy and inflation in government which would likely see a quicker poll revival for the Tories than whoever their leader is
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,529
    HYUFD said:

    So we go from OGH deciding Boris was an electoral liability last year and had to be replaced by Rishi to now Rishi is an electoral liability who has to be replaced. Yet as the chart shows Rishi still polls better than his party (in contrast to Starmer who polls slightly worse than Labour does), has cut inflation and improved the party's poll rating a bit since he replaced Truss as PM.

    The fact is most alternatives to Rishi would be polling even worse, Mordaunt might poll fractionally better but she is too woke for Tory MPs and members to elect her

    Perhaps the true liability is the Conservative Party?
    Every shiny new leader is eventually dragged down to its level.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,529

    Rishi could turn things around by dispelling the notion the country is falling apart in every dimension.

    Leon has flagged up one relatively easy fix, with these dangerous dogs, but as ever, the devil is in the detail. Banning dogs is the easy part. What actually will happen to remove existing dogs? An amnesty scheme as with knives and guns, but with vets standing by at police stations to administer the coup de grace? A dogs hotline? To be serious, the government must actually do something besides running the Home Secretary's mouth.

    He could personally take part in a police raid and put down a Bully XL in front of the cameras.
    Very much so.
    The Tory leader shooting pets to improve the Party's image.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,342
    edited September 2023
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So we go from OGH deciding Boris was an electoral liability last year and had to be replaced by Rishi to now Rishi is an electoral liability who has to be replaced. Yet as the chart shows Rishi still polls better than his party (in contrast to Starmer who polls slightly worse than Labour does), has cut inflation and improved the party's poll rating a bit since he replaced Truss as PM.

    The fact is most alternatives to Rishi would be polling even worse, Mordaunt might poll fractionally better but she is too woke for Tory MPs and members to elect her

    Yeah, its the Tory party the country have had enough of. The only fix to that is opposition, not pass the parcel.
    And then Labour have to deal with the economy and inflation in government which would likely see a quicker poll revival for the Tories than whoever their leader is
    And that is another example of why we have had enough of the Tories. Your best solution is to hope the others f*** it up even more than you are doing......
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    Striking thing about that graph is that the Conservative party rating has wobbled round a basically flat line as Sunak's reputation has drifted down. He's been pulled to his doom by the rest of them.

    Is there anyone who can make the public give the blue team a second third sixth chance? Hard to imagine, really.
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    Sleazy, broken Tories on the slide :lol:
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    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,974
    Second thought.

    Rishi's downward spiral is the scenario I think could lead to a May GE.

    If the locals look like something that could bring him down, he may see more honour and advantage in fighting his battle in the country, rather than against Tory backbenchers in a "sod Stamford Bridge, I'm directly off to Hastings" type move.
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    And since it's Redfield o'clock and I'm on a train,

    Labour leads by 20% nationally.

    Westminster VI (10 September):

    Labour 45% (+1)
    Conservative 25% (-3)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (-2)
    Reform UK 6% (–)
    Green 6% (+2)
    Scottish National Party 4% (+1)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 3 September


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1701264340312031450?t=1yAq_6mIbU1RAu5a41hlsA&s=19

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    Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,595
    To continue: It is certainly true that both Democrats and Republicans have tried to use redistricting to their advantage, Democrats in New York and, recently, Republicans in Pennsylvania. (And in a few cases, the parties have drawn lines to protect incumbents of both parties.)

    If we were to judge only from the most recent House election, we would say the Democrats have probably been more successful at gerrymandering, given their urban disadvantage, and the small majority the Republicans won.

    (Some states have tried to avoid these fights by turning over districting to nonpartisan groups -- with varying degrees of success.)
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,217
    Do the Tories have the energy to go through another leadership contest?
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    Bring back Truss.
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    Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,595
    edited September 2023
    Finally, if I may give 148grs some advice. You got the gerrymandering fallacy somewhere -- and so you should trust that source, or sources, less on American politics.
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    Bring back Truss.

    The lettuce would do better.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 49,048
    The Tories are not gonna replace Sunak. They don’t have the moral and emotional energy. They are like a dog with no fight left

    They are essentially resigned to their fate, apart from a few delusional types. They will go down with their ship and their captain, saluting the king as they do so

    Even @HYUFD on here has accepted a near certain defeat
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    Andy_JS said:

    Do the Tories have the energy to go through another leadership contest?

    Would that help? Rishi is still better regarded than his party.

    Until the reputation of the party as a whole changes, there's only so much a leader can do. And then we're in the psychiatrist/ lightbulb joke territory.

    (How many psychiatrists does it take to change a lightbulb?

    One, but the lightbulb has to want to change.)
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    TimSTimS Posts: 10,529
    Leon said:

    The Tories are not gonna replace Sunak. They don’t have the moral and emotional energy. They are like a dog with no fight left

    They are essentially resigned to their fate, apart from a few delusional types. They will go down with their ship and their captain, saluting the king as they do so

    Even @HYUFD on here has accepted a near certain defeat

    A dog with no fight left, but which has mauled enough children in the last 13 years that the public wish to ban it anyway.

    Today’s PB where am I quiz:


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    VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,448
    The RAAC scandal has impacted the Conservative competency rating according to Redfield & Wilton.


    The Government’s net competency rating stands at -39% this week, down 18 points from last Sunday. Altogether, just 15% find the Government competent (-8), while 54% find the Government incompetent (+10).

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-10-september-2023/
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    Off-topic:

    The best video I've seen about the RAAC concrete issue, which also goes into the asbestos and flat roof (*) problems. I *think* it can be followed by people who have no engineering experience.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O4wOH5g_yzQ

    (*) Who the **** designs flat roofs in a country as wet as the UK? It is designing for five years, not decades...
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    kjhkjh Posts: 10,855
    edited September 2023
    HYUFD said:

    So we go from OGH deciding Boris was an electoral liability last year and had to be replaced by Rishi to now Rishi is an electoral liability who has to be replaced. Yet as the chart shows Rishi still polls better than his party (in contrast to Starmer who polls slightly worse than Labour does), has cut inflation and improved the party's poll rating a bit since he replaced Truss as PM.

    The fact is most alternatives to Rishi would be polling even worse, Mordaunt might poll fractionally better but she is too woke for Tory MPs and members to elect her

    I tend to agree with that analysis but I will do a bit of nit picking anyway.

    I really don't think you can really give Rishi credit for cutting inflation. That is clutching at straws, just as some of the increase was also out of his control.

    Boris had to go regardless of anything and Rishi is certainly a significant improvement on Boris (personable but crooked), Truss (much to my surprise is bonkers*) and May (OK but stubborn/authoritarian and unlike Boris can't campaign). Mourdant as you say is possibly too woke for the members and there is a possibility there is nothing behind the excellent presentation.

    So I think you are right. Rishi is the best and is just hamstrung by getting the gig after so many years of Tory rule.


    * Here is me admitting to getting something so wrong: My view before Truss took the reins was there was a 90% chance she would just be boring and a 10% chance she might surprise on the upside. I never even considered she might be off her trolley.
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    TowelTowel Posts: 1
    edited September 2023
    HYUFD said:

    So we go from OGH deciding Boris was an electoral liability last year and had to be replaced by Rishi to now Rishi is an electoral liability who has to be replaced. Yet as the chart shows Rishi still polls better than his party (in contrast to Starmer who polls slightly worse than Labour does), has cut inflation and improved the party's poll rating a bit since he replaced Truss as PM.

    The fact is most alternatives to Rishi would be polling even worse, Mordaunt might poll fractionally better but she is too woke for Tory MPs and members to elect her

    She can change her image. MPs may not be the brightest buttons in the box, but the election is at most 16 months away and keeping their seats will be uppermost in their minds. As for members, they may not even get a vote, and who would they vote for anyway? Tugendhat seems to be undergoing some embarrassment at the moment. A Johnson return is a complete fantasy.

    I reckon after a couple more small boats weeks leading up to a crescendo, Mordaunt could move into No10 and go to the country on 4th May. Not because of local council seat considerations but because of one local election in particular - for the London mayor. "How many swords has Sadiq carried?" and so on. London vs the rest of the country could be a huge feature of the election, played on by the Tories in both the rest of the country and in London itself. National coverage for London mayoral election themes - ULEZ and immigration. Most voters will forget in a flash that Mordaunt was ever "work", if that's what they thought in the first place. I reckon if somebody were to make a word cloud, she'd be far closer to "armed forces" and "the king" than she would be to "gay pride" in most minds.
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    Why is the UK not included in this new US, EU, India and Gulf states alternative to China's Belt and Road initiative? Starmer raises an important point. Did we decide not to take part or weren't we asked?

    https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1701265323469500823
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,811

    And since it's Redfield o'clock and I'm on a train,

    Labour leads by 20% nationally.

    Westminster VI (10 September):

    Labour 45% (+1)
    Conservative 25% (-3)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (-2)
    Reform UK 6% (–)
    Green 6% (+2)
    Scottish National Party 4% (+1)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 3 September


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1701264340312031450?t=1yAq_6mIbU1RAu5a41hlsA&s=19

    Any other leader would be 20% ahead...

    8% lead for a Lab majority isn't it?
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    VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,448
    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    The Tories are not gonna replace Sunak. They don’t have the moral and emotional energy. They are like a dog with no fight left

    They are essentially resigned to their fate, apart from a few delusional types. They will go down with their ship and their captain, saluting the king as they do so

    Even @HYUFD on here has accepted a near certain defeat

    A dog with no fight left, but which has mauled enough children in the last 13 years that the public wish to ban it anyway.

    Today’s PB where am I quiz:


    Berlin?
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    LeonLeon Posts: 49,048
    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    The Tories are not gonna replace Sunak. They don’t have the moral and emotional energy. They are like a dog with no fight left

    They are essentially resigned to their fate, apart from a few delusional types. They will go down with their ship and their captain, saluting the king as they do so

    Even @HYUFD on here has accepted a near certain defeat

    A dog with no fight left, but which has mauled enough children in the last 13 years that the public wish to ban it anyway.

    Today’s PB where am I quiz:


    I can just spy a rather constructivist radio tower

    Berlin?
  • Options

    Rishi could turn things around by dispelling the notion the country is falling apart in every dimension.

    Leon has flagged up one relatively easy fix, with these dangerous dogs, but as ever, the devil is in the detail. Banning dogs is the easy part. What actually will happen to remove existing dogs? An amnesty scheme as with knives and guns, but with vets standing by at police stations to administer the coup de grace? A dogs hotline? To be serious, the government must actually do something besides running the Home Secretary's mouth.

    He could personally take part in a police raid and put down a Bully XL in front of the cameras.
    From "hug a husky" to "bump off a bully". Pretty much the trajectory of the Conservative Party since 2010.
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    Sam Freedman
    @Samfr
    ·
    3h
    This is the only polling trend that maters at the moment. Tory campaign was going to be built around Sunak and that was more or less their last hope (barring an economic miracle or total Labour meltdown).
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    LeonLeon Posts: 49,048
    My turn. This is an easy one




    Ok you got it. Yes. I’m in Nasbinals, in Aubrac, writing for the Gazette about the “emptiest place in France”. And here it is
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,517

    Off-topic:

    The best video I've seen about the RAAC concrete issue, which also goes into the asbestos and flat roof (*) problems. I *think* it can be followed by people who have no engineering experience.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O4wOH5g_yzQ

    (*) Who the **** designs flat roofs in a country as wet as the UK? It is designing for five years, not decades...

    It's perfectly possible to design flat roofs for rainy countries. It just needs to be designed right and executed competently.
  • Options

    And since it's Redfield o'clock and I'm on a train,

    Labour leads by 20% nationally.

    Westminster VI (10 September):

    Labour 45% (+1)
    Conservative 25% (-3)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (-2)
    Reform UK 6% (–)
    Green 6% (+2)
    Scottish National Party 4% (+1)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 3 September


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1701264340312031450?t=1yAq_6mIbU1RAu5a41hlsA&s=19

    Make that Broken, Sleazy Tories AND LibDems on the slide!
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    Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,595
    There have been late swings in American presidential elections, and polling surprises. Gerald Ford came surprisingly close to defeating JImmy Carter in 1976; a few more votes in Ohio and Hawaii would have given him the win.

    And, of course, Truman actually won in 1948.

    (There are two details about that 1948 election that may amuse you.

    Gallup found that corner houses were one of the reasons their polls were off. At that time Gallup polled in person. They would send interviewers out to particular blocks and ask them question voters there. That resulted in an over representation of voters in corner houses -- who tended to be better off than others.

    Second, in 1952, Adlai Stevenson won more votes than Truman had, even while losing to Eisenhower in a landslide. He even won more popular votes than Truman, Thurmond, and Wallace, combined, had in 1948.)
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    I can't frankly see any possible candidate that can pull back an even close to polling lead for the Tories. Basically the public have turned on them and want them out and once that is the common public feeling you are done for.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 49,048
    A weird detail in the reporting on the Brummy dog case. Apparently the dog owner is “in hospital”

    Er, what? Did the dog turn on him? Did someone take revenge? Did he self harm in guilt?

    Peculiar
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    Leon said:

    A weird detail in the reporting on the Brummy dog case. Apparently the dog owner is “in hospital”

    Er, what? Did the dog turn on him? Did someone take revenge? Did he self harm in guilt?

    Peculiar

    Perhaps he was one of the guys who tried to stop the dog attacking the girl?
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    LeonLeon Posts: 49,048

    Leon said:

    A weird detail in the reporting on the Brummy dog case. Apparently the dog owner is “in hospital”

    Er, what? Did the dog turn on him? Did someone take revenge? Did he self harm in guilt?

    Peculiar

    Perhaps he was one of the guys who tried to stop the dog attacking the girl?
    Good theory. Yes. Tho you think one of the news reports would mention this?
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    I can't frankly see any possible candidate that can pull back an even close to polling lead for the Tories. Basically the public have turned on them and want them out and once that is the common public feeling you are done for.

    The one thing the Tories did not try in 1997 was pre-election tax cuts. They are clearly not going to go for a repeat of that. It's possible that some uptick in the economy plus some carefully targeted bungs combined with a strong campaign could have a significant impact. The YouGov numbers are terrible for Sunak and his party, but they also show Labour is far from home and dry.

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    LeonLeon Posts: 49,048
    On the other hand the guys in brum who got bitten were both running away from the dog, I believe. So if this owner got bitten it was while he was fleeing his own hound. Not a great look
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,217

    Leon said:

    A weird detail in the reporting on the Brummy dog case. Apparently the dog owner is “in hospital”

    Er, what? Did the dog turn on him? Did someone take revenge? Did he self harm in guilt?

    Peculiar

    Perhaps he was one of the guys who tried to stop the dog attacking the girl?
    The girl who was bitten thinks he didn't do anything.

    https://news.sky.com/story/birmingham-xl-bully-attack-dog-in-secure-kennels-as-police-wait-to-speak-to-owner-in-hospital-12959176

    "The owner should be in prison. He never did anything. He just let the dog bite everyone."
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    LeonLeon Posts: 49,048
    *bleak, hollow laughter*


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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,217

    To continue: It is certainly true that both Democrats and Republicans have tried to use redistricting to their advantage, Democrats in New York and, recently, Republicans in Pennsylvania. (And in a few cases, the parties have drawn lines to protect incumbents of both parties.)

    If we were to judge only from the most recent House election, we would say the Democrats have probably been more successful at gerrymandering, given their urban disadvantage, and the small majority the Republicans won.

    (Some states have tried to avoid these fights by turning over districting to nonpartisan groups -- with varying degrees of success.)

    Why is gerrymandering allowed in the first place? In most other Western countries, boundaries are drawn by independent commissions, who are not allowed to take politics into account.
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    Off-topic:

    The best video I've seen about the RAAC concrete issue, which also goes into the asbestos and flat roof (*) problems. I *think* it can be followed by people who have no engineering experience.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O4wOH5g_yzQ

    (*) Who the **** designs flat roofs in a country as wet as the UK? It is designing for five years, not decades...

    It's perfectly possible to design flat roofs for rainy countries. It just needs to be designed right and executed competently.
    Maintenance. All roofs need maintaining; flat roofs requiremuch more maintenance. 'Design' should always include ongoing maintenance as part of the costs.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,938
    edited September 2023
    Dangerous dogs = dead cat from Leon?
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,574
    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    The Tories are not gonna replace Sunak. They don’t have the moral and emotional energy. They are like a dog with no fight left

    They are essentially resigned to their fate, apart from a few delusional types. They will go down with their ship and their captain, saluting the king as they do so

    Even @HYUFD on here has accepted a near certain defeat

    A dog with no fight left, but which has mauled enough children in the last 13 years that the public wish to ban it anyway.

    Today’s PB where am I quiz:


    Still in Berlin

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fernsehturm_Berlin
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,003

    Rishi could turn things around by dispelling the notion the country is falling apart in every dimension.

    Leon has flagged up one relatively easy fix, with these dangerous dogs, but as ever, the devil is in the detail. Banning dogs is the easy part. What actually will happen to remove existing dogs? An amnesty scheme as with knives and guns, but with vets standing by at police stations to administer the coup de grace? A dogs hotline? To be serious, the government must actually do something besides running the Home Secretary's mouth.

    He could personally take part in a police raid and put down a Bully XL in front of the cameras.
    ...with his bare hands. Now you're talking.
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    TazTaz Posts: 12,015
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    The Tories are not gonna replace Sunak. They don’t have the moral and emotional energy. They are like a dog with no fight left

    They are essentially resigned to their fate, apart from a few delusional types. They will go down with their ship and their captain, saluting the king as they do so

    Even @HYUFD on here has accepted a near certain defeat

    A dog with no fight left, but which has mauled enough children in the last 13 years that the public wish to ban it anyway.

    Today’s PB where am I quiz:


    I can just spy a rather constructivist radio tower

    Berlin?
    Shanghai ?
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,811

    Rishi could turn things around by dispelling the notion the country is falling apart in every dimension.

    Leon has flagged up one relatively easy fix, with these dangerous dogs, but as ever, the devil is in the detail. Banning dogs is the easy part. What actually will happen to remove existing dogs? An amnesty scheme as with knives and guns, but with vets standing by at police stations to administer the coup de grace? A dogs hotline? To be serious, the government must actually do something besides running the Home Secretary's mouth.

    He could personally take part in a police raid and put down a Bully XL in front of the cameras.
    Against his religion surely? The principle of Ahimsa.
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    Extraordinarily good poll for the Tories. How on Earth are they persuading a quarter of the country to vote for them?

    Mind blowing.

    Barking Braverman has rallied the mad dogs.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,811
    dixiedean said:

    Rishi could turn things around by dispelling the notion the country is falling apart in every dimension.

    Leon has flagged up one relatively easy fix, with these dangerous dogs, but as ever, the devil is in the detail. Banning dogs is the easy part. What actually will happen to remove existing dogs? An amnesty scheme as with knives and guns, but with vets standing by at police stations to administer the coup de grace? A dogs hotline? To be serious, the government must actually do something besides running the Home Secretary's mouth.

    He could personally take part in a police raid and put down a Bully XL in front of the cameras.
    Very much so.
    The Tory leader shooting pets to improve the Party's image.
    With Sunaks luck, he would wind up shooting a guide dog of a child.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,392
    The poll was conducted before Sunak channeled his inner Churchill by laying down the law to the Chinese who must be terrified. Just as they were terrified when the UK threatened to send a ship to the waters around Hong Kong !

    Comedy gold today was Sunak standing up for the sanctity of Parliament ! The Tories have done more to trash that over the last few years than any alleged Chinese interference!
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,938

    Extraordinarily good poll for the Tories. How on Earth are they persuading a quarter of the country to vote for them?

    Mind blowing.

    Signs that the Tories are beginning to get some poll recognition for their schools investment track record.
  • Options
    Met chief Sir Mark Rowley calls for overhaul of criminal justice system
    ...
    The Met Commissioner said it now takes five times as much work to take a case to court as it did three decades because of growing bureaucracy.

    He said that was the reason that the number of crimes going unpunished – which now totals more than 90 per cent of overall recorded offences – had been rising year on year and that major changes were needed to reverse the trend.

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/met-commissioner-sir-mark-rowley-criminal-justice-system-policy-exchange-b1106208.html

    Another part of broken Britain that Rishi could look at.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,938
    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Rishi could turn things around by dispelling the notion the country is falling apart in every dimension.

    Leon has flagged up one relatively easy fix, with these dangerous dogs, but as ever, the devil is in the detail. Banning dogs is the easy part. What actually will happen to remove existing dogs? An amnesty scheme as with knives and guns, but with vets standing by at police stations to administer the coup de grace? A dogs hotline? To be serious, the government must actually do something besides running the Home Secretary's mouth.

    He could personally take part in a police raid and put down a Bully XL in front of the cameras.
    Very much so.
    The Tory leader shooting pets to improve the Party's image.
    With Sunaks luck, he would wind up shooting a guide dog of a child.
    His luck may be bad, his ability is worse.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,848

    And since it's Redfield o'clock and I'm on a train,

    Labour leads by 20% nationally.

    Westminster VI (10 September):

    Labour 45% (+1)
    Conservative 25% (-3)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (-2)
    Reform UK 6% (–)
    Green 6% (+2)
    Scottish National Party 4% (+1)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 3 September


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1701264340312031450?t=1yAq_6mIbU1RAu5a41hlsA&s=19

    labour 444 seats
    Torys 124
    Lib Dems 34
    SNP 26

    Not qs bad as it could be for the tory party...
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 19,415

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Rishi could turn things around by dispelling the notion the country is falling apart in every dimension.

    Leon has flagged up one relatively easy fix, with these dangerous dogs, but as ever, the devil is in the detail. Banning dogs is the easy part. What actually will happen to remove existing dogs? An amnesty scheme as with knives and guns, but with vets standing by at police stations to administer the coup de grace? A dogs hotline? To be serious, the government must actually do something besides running the Home Secretary's mouth.

    He could personally take part in a police raid and put down a Bully XL in front of the cameras.
    Very much so.
    The Tory leader shooting pets to improve the Party's image.
    With Sunaks luck, he would wind up shooting a guide dog of a child.
    His luck may be bad, his ability is worse.
    He'd probably get himself bitten.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,811

    Met chief Sir Mark Rowley calls for overhaul of criminal justice system
    ...
    The Met Commissioner said it now takes five times as much work to take a case to court as it did three decades because of growing bureaucracy.

    He said that was the reason that the number of crimes going unpunished – which now totals more than 90 per cent of overall recorded offences – had been rising year on year and that major changes were needed to reverse the trend.

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/met-commissioner-sir-mark-rowley-criminal-justice-system-policy-exchange-b1106208.html

    Another part of broken Britain that Rishi could look at.

    Right up Starmer's Street.
  • Options
    On 'dangerous' dogs:

    My auntie kept a Rhodesian Ridgebacks. These were (to me) massive dogs, and felt aggressive even when running around. But they lived on a farm, and had a couple of acres to run around. There were also always at least two on the farm. They were as soppy as anything, and the only time they caused me any hard was when one knocked me over whilst I was on one leg pulling on my workboots. They were lovely.

    A South London friend kept greyhaunds on a high floor of a tower block. The greyhounds - usually seen as soppy dogs - were mad. Because they only got exercised once a day.

    It is the dogs; but it is also the owner.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 19,415
    Leon said:

    A weird detail in the reporting on the Brummy dog case. Apparently the dog owner is “in hospital”

    Er, what? Did the dog turn on him? Did someone take revenge? Did he self harm in guilt?

    Peculiar

    I thought he was one of the ones that was mauled.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,938
    eek said:

    And since it's Redfield o'clock and I'm on a train,

    Labour leads by 20% nationally.

    Westminster VI (10 September):

    Labour 45% (+1)
    Conservative 25% (-3)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (-2)
    Reform UK 6% (–)
    Green 6% (+2)
    Scottish National Party 4% (+1)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 3 September


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1701264340312031450?t=1yAq_6mIbU1RAu5a41hlsA&s=19

    labour 444 seats
    Torys 124
    Lib Dems 34
    SNP 26

    Not qs bad as it could be for the tory party...
    Tactical voting?
  • Options
    Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 2,827
    edited September 2023

    Off-topic:

    The best video I've seen about the RAAC concrete issue, which also goes into the asbestos and flat roof (*) problems. I *think* it can be followed by people who have no engineering experience.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O4wOH5g_yzQ

    (*) Who the **** designs flat roofs in a country as wet as the UK? It is designing for five years, not decades...

    It's perfectly possible to design flat roofs for rainy countries. It just needs to be designed right and executed competently.
    Used to be in charge of a block of flats with a 5° roof which drained perfectly well. We occasionally worried about the hypothetical consequences of a 3ft snow drift, but in inner London there were plenty of other problems to divert us.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,653
    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    The Tories are not gonna replace Sunak. They don’t have the moral and emotional energy. They are like a dog with no fight left

    They are essentially resigned to their fate, apart from a few delusional types. They will go down with their ship and their captain, saluting the king as they do so

    Even @HYUFD on here has accepted a near certain defeat

    A dog with no fight left, but which has mauled enough children in the last 13 years that the public wish to ban it anyway.

    Today’s PB where am I quiz:


    Alexanderplatz in the background makes that one all too easy.
  • Options
    eek said:

    And since it's Redfield o'clock and I'm on a train,

    Labour leads by 20% nationally.

    Westminster VI (10 September):

    Labour 45% (+1)
    Conservative 25% (-3)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (-2)
    Reform UK 6% (–)
    Green 6% (+2)
    Scottish National Party 4% (+1)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 3 September


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1701264340312031450?t=1yAq_6mIbU1RAu5a41hlsA&s=19

    labour 444 seats
    Torys 124
    Lib Dems 34
    SNP 26

    Not qs bad as it could be for the tory party...
    Sounds a tad optimistic.....for the SNP....
  • Options
    eek said:

    And since it's Redfield o'clock and I'm on a train,

    Labour leads by 20% nationally.

    Westminster VI (10 September):

    Labour 45% (+1)
    Conservative 25% (-3)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (-2)
    Reform UK 6% (–)
    Green 6% (+2)
    Scottish National Party 4% (+1)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 3 September


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1701264340312031450?t=1yAq_6mIbU1RAu5a41hlsA&s=19

    labour 444 seats
    Torys 124
    Lib Dems 34
    SNP 26

    Not qs bad as it could be for the tory party...
    Is that UNS? In that case, definitely on the optimistic side.

    And I get the mountain Labour have to climb. And that there is a year or so for swingback to happen.

    But Kinnock wasn't recording twenty point leads in 1991. Cameron got a few around the 2009 Euro elections, but they were distorted by a UKIP surge. For most of 2009, his leads were low to mid teens.

    If the polls are going to close, they need to get a move on.
  • Options

    On 'dangerous' dogs:

    My auntie kept a Rhodesian Ridgebacks. These were (to me) massive dogs, and felt aggressive even when running around. But they lived on a farm, and had a couple of acres to run around. There were also always at least two on the farm. They were as soppy as anything, and the only time they caused me any hard was when one knocked me over whilst I was on one leg pulling on my workboots. They were lovely.

    A South London friend kept greyhaunds on a high floor of a tower block. The greyhounds - usually seen as soppy dogs - were mad. Because they only got exercised once a day.

    It is the dogs; but it is also the owner.

    RRs are wonderful dogs.

    Surprised at what you say about the greyhounds. They need remarkably little exercise, and are typically gentle creatures.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,048
    I think the Special Mashed Potato Lady has arrived



    Fantastique
  • Options
    Conservatives in Wales need to hide with latest poll on ITV Wales

    Labour 50% Conservative 19% with a prediction of nil seats

    Certainly if these polls continue with no outside events intervening the Conservatives are heading into a very big defeat indeed

    And changing Sunak is not the answer
  • Options
    Tactical voting in general election could spell Tories’ worst defeat in 100 years
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tactical-voting-general-election-tory-defeat-sunak-starmer-b2407871.html

    Electoral Calculus, since you ask.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,003
    ...

    On 'dangerous' dogs:

    My auntie kept a Rhodesian Ridgebacks. These were (to me) massive dogs, and felt aggressive even when running around. But they lived on a farm, and had a couple of acres to run around. There were also always at least two on the farm. They were as soppy as anything, and the only time they caused me any hard was when one knocked me over whilst I was on one leg pulling on my workboots. They were lovely.

    A South London friend kept greyhaunds on a high floor of a tower block. The greyhounds - usually seen as soppy dogs - were mad. Because they only got exercised once a day.

    It is the dogs; but it is also the owner.

    On dangerous dogs.

    We have a fat, ponderous Beagle who is one hell of a trip hazard.

    On a more serious note. Anything with bull terrier in the title should be avoided. XL Bullies? Ridiculous, get rid now. Personally, I'd ban Staffies too. The weapon of choice for a Tipton drug dealer.
  • Options
    Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,595
    Andy_JS asked: "Why is gerrymandering allowed in the first place?"
    Because elected officials have decided boundaries since the beginning of the US, usually a governor working with a majorities in the legislature. (Both houses, except in Nebraska, which has a unicameral (and nonpartisan) legislature).

    And many of those officials have helped themselves, and their allies, stay in power, by drawing those boundaries.

    States that have citizen initiatives could, in principle, change that for their states, by setting up commissions. There are now eight states that use commissions to draw boundaries: Washington, California, Idaho, Montana, Arizona, Wyoming, Michigan and Virginia.) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerrymandering_in_the_United_States

    But to change it nationally would take a Constitutional amendment.
  • Options

    Off-topic:

    The best video I've seen about the RAAC concrete issue, which also goes into the asbestos and flat roof (*) problems. I *think* it can be followed by people who have no engineering experience.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O4wOH5g_yzQ

    (*) Who the **** designs flat roofs in a country as wet as the UK? It is designing for five years, not decades...

    It's perfectly possible to design flat roofs for rainy countries. It just needs to be designed right and executed competently.
    Used to be in charge of a block of flats with a 5° roof which drained perfectly well. We occasionally worried about the hypothetical consequences of a 3ft snow drift, but in inner London there were plenty of other problems to divert us.
    Company X, here in Cambridge, had a large(ish) span saw-tooth roof, so not flat. But it needed drains in the middle, which went down interior columns. Every autumn, some unfortunate sod would have water p*ss out of the plasterboard beside them. Because leaves would blow into the gulleys every autumn, along with birds' nests and other detritus, and block the underfloor drains from the columns. A head of water would then build up, until it reached a joint in the downpipe in the column and flow out over your desk.

    Water management is a massive part of the architect's art here in the UK. If you give water an inch, it will take a mile. And that requires good and often regular maintenance. Which architects more often than not ignore.
  • Options

    eek said:

    And since it's Redfield o'clock and I'm on a train,

    Labour leads by 20% nationally.

    Westminster VI (10 September):

    Labour 45% (+1)
    Conservative 25% (-3)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (-2)
    Reform UK 6% (–)
    Green 6% (+2)
    Scottish National Party 4% (+1)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 3 September


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1701264340312031450?t=1yAq_6mIbU1RAu5a41hlsA&s=19

    labour 444 seats
    Torys 124
    Lib Dems 34
    SNP 26

    Not qs bad as it could be for the tory party...
    Is that UNS? In that case, definitely on the optimistic side.

    And I get the mountain Labour have to climb. And that there is a year or so for swingback to happen.

    But Kinnock wasn't recording twenty point leads in 1991. Cameron got a few around the 2009 Euro elections, but they were distorted by a UKIP surge. For most of 2009, his leads were low to mid teens.

    If the polls are going to close, they need to get a move on.
    The stability of the lead for a long while now is pretty striking.

    I guess there are a few straws in the wind for those who believe Labour's lead is a mile wide but an inch deep - lots of ex-Tories saying don't know, lack of love for Starmer, Uxbridge - but the elephant in the room is the consistency of the lead. It does look a lot as if, whether they are wildly enthusiastic or not, people have concluded it's a change election.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,635
    edited September 2023

    On 'dangerous' dogs:

    My auntie kept a Rhodesian Ridgebacks. These were (to me) massive dogs, and felt aggressive even when running around. But they lived on a farm, and had a couple of acres to run around. There were also always at least two on the farm. They were as soppy as anything, and the only time they caused me any hard was when one knocked me over whilst I was on one leg pulling on my workboots. They were lovely.

    A South London friend kept greyhaunds on a high floor of a tower block. The greyhounds - usually seen as soppy dogs - were mad. Because they only got exercised once a day.

    It is the dogs; but it is also the owner.

    RRs are wonderful dogs.

    Surprised at what you say about the greyhounds. They need remarkably little exercise, and are typically gentle creatures.
    Perhaps I didn't say that correctly. They were gentle, but they wanted to be out and about. They were living in a tower block in South London, and did not get regular, good exercise.

    My auntie's Rhodesian Ridgeback's are the only ones I have known, and I agree. They were wonderful.

    Myself and a friend got attacked by a Doberman once in a pub, and it put me off large dogs for life. My friend had to have stitches in his nose. It was the landlord's dog...

    Edit: mad != dangerous. They were just running around the flat wildly.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,134

    Conservatives in Wales need to hide with latest poll on ITV Wales

    Labour 50% Conservative 19% with a prediction of nil seats

    Certainly if these polls continue with no outside events intervening the Conservatives are heading into a very big defeat indeed

    And changing Sunak is not the answer

    You Can't Shake The Drake
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,369

    Striking thing about that graph is that the Conservative party rating has wobbled round a basically flat line as Sunak's reputation has drifted down. He's been pulled to his doom by the rest of them.

    Don't the facts you mention rather imply that it's Sunak and not the party that has been doing the pulling? If the party's reputation has been flat while its leader's reputation has worsened?
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,962
    edited September 2023

    Conservatives in Wales need to hide with latest poll on ITV Wales

    Labour 50% Conservative 19% with a prediction of nil seats

    Certainly if these polls continue with no outside events intervening the Conservatives are heading into a very big defeat indeed

    And changing Sunak is not the answer

    You Can't Shake The Drake
    His popularity is also on the wain

    Total well 40% (-4)

    Total badly 49% (+9)

    Don't know 11% (-6)
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,871

    ...

    On 'dangerous' dogs:

    My auntie kept a Rhodesian Ridgebacks. These were (to me) massive dogs, and felt aggressive even when running around. But they lived on a farm, and had a couple of acres to run around. There were also always at least two on the farm. They were as soppy as anything, and the only time they caused me any hard was when one knocked me over whilst I was on one leg pulling on my workboots. They were lovely.

    A South London friend kept greyhaunds on a high floor of a tower block. The greyhounds - usually seen as soppy dogs - were mad. Because they only got exercised once a day.

    It is the dogs; but it is also the owner.

    On dangerous dogs.

    We have a fat, ponderous Beagle who is one hell of a trip hazard.

    On a more serious note. Anything with bull terrier in the title should be avoided. XL Bullies? Ridiculous, get rid now. Personally, I'd ban Staffies too. The weapon of choice for a Tipton drug dealer.
    Hmmmm. Lots of Staffies. Red Wall. Voters ...

    I don't think we'll see any useful reform doggy fashion from the Tories, apart from adding American bullies to the DDA.
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,833
    edited September 2023

    On 'dangerous' dogs:

    My auntie kept a Rhodesian Ridgebacks. These were (to me) massive dogs, and felt aggressive even when running around. But they lived on a farm, and had a couple of acres to run around. There were also always at least two on the farm. They were as soppy as anything, and the only time they caused me any hard was when one knocked me over whilst I was on one leg pulling on my workboots. They were lovely.

    A South London friend kept greyhaunds on a high floor of a tower block. The greyhounds - usually seen as soppy dogs - were mad. Because they only got exercised once a day.

    It is the dogs; but it is also the owner.

    RRs are wonderful dogs.

    Surprised at what you say about the greyhounds. They need remarkably little exercise, and are typically gentle creatures.
    Perhaps I didn't say that correctly. They were gentle, but they wanted to be out and about. They were living in a tower block in South London, and did not get regular, good exercise.

    My auntie's Rhodesian Ridgeback's are the only ones I have known, and I agree. They were wonderful.

    Myself and a friend got attacked by a Doberman once in a pub, and it put me off large dogs for life. My friend had to have stitches in his nose. It was the landlord's dog...
    Sorry to hear about your experience with the Doberman. There is nothing wrong with the breed but your experience does help to highlight the shortcomings of simplistic attitudes towards dog control. A lead is not a lot of help with an out of control Doberman. The animal is simply too strong. There is an argument for saying a dog of that type should not generally be in a public space - and a pub is nothing if not public - at all unless the owner can clearly demonstrate his/her control of the animal through normal means. That clearly did not apply in your example.

    I assume some formal action and compensation followed?
  • Options

    Andy_JS asked: "Why is gerrymandering allowed in the first place?"
    Because elected officials have decided boundaries since the beginning of the US, usually a governor working with a majorities in the legislature. (Both houses, except in Nebraska, which has a unicameral (and nonpartisan) legislature).

    And many of those officials have helped themselves, and their allies, stay in power, by drawing those boundaries.

    States that have citizen initiatives could, in principle, change that for their states, by setting up commissions. There are now eight states that use commissions to draw boundaries: Washington, California, Idaho, Montana, Arizona, Wyoming, Michigan and Virginia.) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerrymandering_in_the_United_States

    But to change it nationally would take a Constitutional amendment.

    There are some constraints on gerrymandering in federal law short of constitutional amendment. The Voting Rights Act 1965 was recently used successfully to overturn an Alabama gerrymander that managed to contrive just one black majority district in a 25% black state, despite a 6-3 conservative Supreme Court (Roberts and Kavanaugh joining liberal Justices). Although that was on a limited point - the general principle is pretty wide discretion to states, but not unlimited.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,938
    Leon said:

    I think the Special Mashed Potato Lady has arrived



    Fantastique

    Let me guess, that's not Smash is it?
  • Options
    Carnyx said:

    ...

    On 'dangerous' dogs:

    My auntie kept a Rhodesian Ridgebacks. These were (to me) massive dogs, and felt aggressive even when running around. But they lived on a farm, and had a couple of acres to run around. There were also always at least two on the farm. They were as soppy as anything, and the only time they caused me any hard was when one knocked me over whilst I was on one leg pulling on my workboots. They were lovely.

    A South London friend kept greyhaunds on a high floor of a tower block. The greyhounds - usually seen as soppy dogs - were mad. Because they only got exercised once a day.

    It is the dogs; but it is also the owner.

    On dangerous dogs.

    We have a fat, ponderous Beagle who is one hell of a trip hazard.

    On a more serious note. Anything with bull terrier in the title should be avoided. XL Bullies? Ridiculous, get rid now. Personally, I'd ban Staffies too. The weapon of choice for a Tipton drug dealer.
    Hmmmm. Lots of Staffies. Red Wall. Voters ...

    I don't think we'll see any useful reform doggy fashion from the Tories, apart from adding American bullies to the DDA.
    Not just voters, either.

    Here's sad news from Romford's MP. And yes, Buster did go round wearing a Union Jack waistcoat.

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/londoners-diary/londoner-s-diary-parliament-s-top-dog-buster-has-woofed-his-last-a3600056.html
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,003

    Conservatives in Wales need to hide with latest poll on ITV Wales

    Labour 50% Conservative 19% with a prediction of nil seats

    Certainly if these polls continue with no outside events intervening the Conservatives are heading into a very big defeat indeed

    And changing Sunak is not the answer

    You Can't Shake The Drake
    He cannot be overtaken! (So long as he's travelling no less than 20 mph).

    The real shocker is Andrew RT Davies, with 13% consider he is doing a good job. I'll have a pint of whatever they are drinking. Rishi should hang around more with RT. Relatively speaking, Rishi would appear awesome.
  • Options

    Conservatives in Wales need to hide with latest poll on ITV Wales

    Labour 50% Conservative 19% with a prediction of nil seats

    Certainly if these polls continue with no outside events intervening the Conservatives are heading into a very big defeat indeed

    And changing Sunak is not the answer

    You Can't Shake The Drake
    His popularity is also on the wain

    Total well 40% (-4)

    Total badly 49% (+9)

    Don't know 11% (-6)
    Has the 20 mph thing started yet?
  • Options
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    A weird detail in the reporting on the Brummy dog case. Apparently the dog owner is “in hospital”

    Er, what? Did the dog turn on him? Did someone take revenge? Did he self harm in guilt?

    Peculiar

    Perhaps he was one of the guys who tried to stop the dog attacking the girl?
    The girl who was bitten thinks he didn't do anything.

    https://news.sky.com/story/birmingham-xl-bully-attack-dog-in-secure-kennels-as-police-wait-to-speak-to-owner-in-hospital-12959176

    "The owner should be in prison. He never did anything. He just let the dog bite everyone."
    He was probably on his dog's side.
  • Options

    Conservatives in Wales need to hide with latest poll on ITV Wales

    Labour 50% Conservative 19% with a prediction of nil seats

    Certainly if these polls continue with no outside events intervening the Conservatives are heading into a very big defeat indeed

    And changing Sunak is not the answer

    You Can't Shake The Drake
    He cannot be overtaken! (So long as he's travelling no less than 20 mph).

    The real shocker is Andrew RT Davies, with 13% consider he is doing a good job. I'll have a pint of whatever they are drinking. Rishi should hang around more with RT. Relatively speaking, Rishi would appear awesome.
    He is hopeless and anonymous with 44% don't know

    17th September is going to be a very interesting day, though the new 30mph signs on display in our area look as if the LA may just be being sensible
  • Options

    Conservatives in Wales need to hide with latest poll on ITV Wales

    Labour 50% Conservative 19% with a prediction of nil seats

    Certainly if these polls continue with no outside events intervening the Conservatives are heading into a very big defeat indeed

    And changing Sunak is not the answer

    You Can't Shake The Drake
    His popularity is also on the wain

    Total well 40% (-4)

    Total badly 49% (+9)

    Don't know 11% (-6)
    It's astonishing that so many in Wales support Labour at such high levels, seemingly unchangeably and forever, and despite their failure.

    They're like sheep.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    What do people think the Labour VI lead, & Betfair price for Labour overall majority would be now had Boris never faced a vote of confidence last year, the mass resignations didn’t happen, & he was still PM?
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,877
    edited September 2023
    HYUFD said:

    So we go from OGH deciding Boris was an electoral liability last year and had to be replaced by Rishi to now Rishi is an electoral liability who has to be replaced. Yet as the chart shows Rishi still polls better than his party (in contrast to Starmer who polls slightly worse than Labour does), has cut inflation and improved the party's poll rating a bit since he replaced Truss as PM.

    The fact is most alternatives to Rishi would be polling even worse, Mordaunt might poll fractionally better but she is too woke for Tory MPs and members to elect her

    You’re struggling your way toward what is obvious to the rest of us. The problem is your party, the way it has behaved.

    Which you were told at the time; you couldn’t have got more warnings. But winning last time was all that mattered, apparently.
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    Conservatives in Wales need to hide with latest poll on ITV Wales

    Labour 50% Conservative 19% with a prediction of nil seats

    Certainly if these polls continue with no outside events intervening the Conservatives are heading into a very big defeat indeed

    And changing Sunak is not the answer

    You Can't Shake The Drake
    His popularity is also on the wain

    Total well 40% (-4)

    Total badly 49% (+9)

    Don't know 11% (-6)
    It's astonishing that so many in Wales support Labour at such high levels, seemingly unchangeably and forever, and despite their failure.

    They're like sheep.
    I could make a comment but I am far too polite about my fellow country folk
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,217

    Tactical voting in general election could spell Tories’ worst defeat in 100 years
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tactical-voting-general-election-tory-defeat-sunak-starmer-b2407871.html

    Electoral Calculus, since you ask.

    Mid Beds will be a good test of this. At the moment it looks like tactical voting might not happen there.
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    Conservatives in Wales need to hide with latest poll on ITV Wales

    Labour 50% Conservative 19% with a prediction of nil seats

    Certainly if these polls continue with no outside events intervening the Conservatives are heading into a very big defeat indeed

    And changing Sunak is not the answer

    You Can't Shake The Drake
    His popularity is also on the wain

    Total well 40% (-4)

    Total badly 49% (+9)

    Don't know 11% (-6)
    That's the Welsh saying they don't like Drakeford's resignation announcement because they know they will not get anybody else as awesome as Mark Drakeford.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,877
    edited September 2023
    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    The Tories are not gonna replace Sunak. They don’t have the moral and emotional energy. They are like a dog with no fight left

    They are essentially resigned to their fate, apart from a few delusional types. They will go down with their ship and their captain, saluting the king as they do so

    Even @HYUFD on here has accepted a near certain defeat

    A dog with no fight left, but which has mauled enough children in the last 13 years that the public wish to ban it anyway.

    Today’s PB where am I quiz:


    That German looking tv tower is the clue?

    Mine’s not so hard; I am having dinner by a roundabout. While they build a giant scaffold thing on the road on the other side for a music concert next weekend, by which time me and the dog will be in Slovenia.


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