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Sunak’s personal polling drops to record low – politicalbetting.com
Sunak’s personal polling drops to record low – politicalbetting.com
These latest numbers from YouGov are very much in the line with what we have been seeing from other pollsters. It is now hard to see how the PM could turn it round.
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The fact is most alternatives to Rishi would be polling even worse, Mordaunt might poll fractionally better but she is too woke for Tory MPs and members to elect her
Leon has flagged up one relatively easy fix, with these dangerous dogs, but as ever, the devil is in the detail. Banning dogs is the easy part. What actually will happen to remove existing dogs? An amnesty scheme as with knives and guns, but with vets standing by at police stations to administer the coup de grace? A dogs hotline? To be serious, the government must actually do something besides running the Home Secretary's mouth.
Here is something else: county lines.
Gangs grooming children as young as 7 to deal drugs and rob people, under threat of violence
...
Some 41% of all cases of suspected modern slavery in the UK last year involved children.
https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/gangs-grooming-children-as-young-as-7-to-deal-drugs/
And I think we can all agree enslaving 7-year-olds is, on balance, a bad thing, but once more, what will the government actually do? This is already illegal, the whole ecosystem is already illegal, so what will the government do besides blame Keir Starmer?
That is the point, there are many other issues, from Wilko to RAAC, on which the government seems impotent and often barely interested. If Rishi wants to stand any chance of winning the next election, he must prove the government is on the side of the people, and make a start on fixing some of our problems.
How often has the "wrong" party, the party with fewer popular votes, won control of the House? In 2012, and four times in the 20th century: "Although Democratic candidates received a nationwide plurality of more than 1.4 million votes (1.1%) in the aggregated vote totals from all House elections,[3] the Republican Party won a 33-seat advantage in seats, thus retaining its House majority by 17 seats. Democrats picked up 27 previously Republican-held seats, but most of these gains were canceled out due to Republican pick-ups of Democratic-held seats, and reapportionment gains that benefited Republicans, leaving the Democrats with a net gain of just eight seats.[4]
This disparity – common in close elections involving single-member district voting[5] – has sometimes been attributed to targeted Republican gerrymandering in the congressional redistricting process following the 2010 United States Census.[6][7][8][9][10] However, "unintentional gerrymandering," --the high concentration of Democrats in urban centers--leading to "wasted votes" in districts that easily elected Democratic candidates, was likely a more significant factor than partisan gerrymandering. [11][9][12] The GOP also benefited from having a greater number of incumbents, who tend to have an advantage in elections[9] which may have helped Republicans win close elections for individual seats.
In the 20th century, the party with a plurality of the popular vote was unable to receive a majority in the House on four occasions- 1952 and 1996, in which the Republicans held a majority in the House. Meanwhile, the 1914 and 1942 elections were the last time that the Democrats won a majority in the House without winning the popular vote."
source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections
I mean, I know the basic mantra that betting value is about odds, but when Mike consistently says he's not convinced by the idea that Labour will get a majority, he's not necessarily been highlighting the prices on offer on that: his unconvincedness seems to come from a more basic place.
Every shiny new leader is eventually dragged down to its level.
The Tory leader shooting pets to improve the Party's image.
Is there anyone who can make the public give the blue team a second third sixth chance? Hard to imagine, really.
Rishi's downward spiral is the scenario I think could lead to a May GE.
If the locals look like something that could bring him down, he may see more honour and advantage in fighting his battle in the country, rather than against Tory backbenchers in a "sod Stamford Bridge, I'm directly off to Hastings" type move.
Labour leads by 20% nationally.
Westminster VI (10 September):
Labour 45% (+1)
Conservative 25% (-3)
Liberal Democrat 12% (-2)
Reform UK 6% (–)
Green 6% (+2)
Scottish National Party 4% (+1)
Other 1% (–)
Changes +/- 3 September
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1701264340312031450?t=1yAq_6mIbU1RAu5a41hlsA&s=19
If we were to judge only from the most recent House election, we would say the Democrats have probably been more successful at gerrymandering, given their urban disadvantage, and the small majority the Republicans won.
(Some states have tried to avoid these fights by turning over districting to nonpartisan groups -- with varying degrees of success.)
They are essentially resigned to their fate, apart from a few delusional types. They will go down with their ship and their captain, saluting the king as they do so
Even @HYUFD on here has accepted a near certain defeat
Until the reputation of the party as a whole changes, there's only so much a leader can do. And then we're in the psychiatrist/ lightbulb joke territory.
(How many psychiatrists does it take to change a lightbulb?
One, but the lightbulb has to want to change.)
Today’s PB where am I quiz:
The Government’s net competency rating stands at -39% this week, down 18 points from last Sunday. Altogether, just 15% find the Government competent (-8), while 54% find the Government incompetent (+10).
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-10-september-2023/
The best video I've seen about the RAAC concrete issue, which also goes into the asbestos and flat roof (*) problems. I *think* it can be followed by people who have no engineering experience.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O4wOH5g_yzQ
(*) Who the **** designs flat roofs in a country as wet as the UK? It is designing for five years, not decades...
I really don't think you can really give Rishi credit for cutting inflation. That is clutching at straws, just as some of the increase was also out of his control.
Boris had to go regardless of anything and Rishi is certainly a significant improvement on Boris (personable but crooked), Truss (much to my surprise is bonkers*) and May (OK but stubborn/authoritarian and unlike Boris can't campaign). Mourdant as you say is possibly too woke for the members and there is a possibility there is nothing behind the excellent presentation.
So I think you are right. Rishi is the best and is just hamstrung by getting the gig after so many years of Tory rule.
* Here is me admitting to getting something so wrong: My view before Truss took the reins was there was a 90% chance she would just be boring and a 10% chance she might surprise on the upside. I never even considered she might be off her trolley.
I reckon after a couple more small boats weeks leading up to a crescendo, Mordaunt could move into No10 and go to the country on 4th May. Not because of local council seat considerations but because of one local election in particular - for the London mayor. "How many swords has Sadiq carried?" and so on. London vs the rest of the country could be a huge feature of the election, played on by the Tories in both the rest of the country and in London itself. National coverage for London mayoral election themes - ULEZ and immigration. Most voters will forget in a flash that Mordaunt was ever "work", if that's what they thought in the first place. I reckon if somebody were to make a word cloud, she'd be far closer to "armed forces" and "the king" than she would be to "gay pride" in most minds.
https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1701265323469500823
8% lead for a Lab majority isn't it?
Berlin?
@Samfr
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3h
This is the only polling trend that maters at the moment. Tory campaign was going to be built around Sunak and that was more or less their last hope (barring an economic miracle or total Labour meltdown).
Ok you got it. Yes. I’m in Nasbinals, in Aubrac, writing for the Gazette about the “emptiest place in France”. And here it is
And, of course, Truman actually won in 1948.
(There are two details about that 1948 election that may amuse you.
Gallup found that corner houses were one of the reasons their polls were off. At that time Gallup polled in person. They would send interviewers out to particular blocks and ask them question voters there. That resulted in an over representation of voters in corner houses -- who tended to be better off than others.
Second, in 1952, Adlai Stevenson won more votes than Truman had, even while losing to Eisenhower in a landslide. He even won more popular votes than Truman, Thurmond, and Wallace, combined, had in 1948.)
Er, what? Did the dog turn on him? Did someone take revenge? Did he self harm in guilt?
Peculiar
https://news.sky.com/story/birmingham-xl-bully-attack-dog-in-secure-kennels-as-police-wait-to-speak-to-owner-in-hospital-12959176
"The owner should be in prison. He never did anything. He just let the dog bite everyone."
Mind blowing.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fernsehturm_Berlin
Comedy gold today was Sunak standing up for the sanctity of Parliament ! The Tories have done more to trash that over the last few years than any alleged Chinese interference!
...
The Met Commissioner said it now takes five times as much work to take a case to court as it did three decades because of growing bureaucracy.
He said that was the reason that the number of crimes going unpunished – which now totals more than 90 per cent of overall recorded offences – had been rising year on year and that major changes were needed to reverse the trend.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/met-commissioner-sir-mark-rowley-criminal-justice-system-policy-exchange-b1106208.html
Another part of broken Britain that Rishi could look at.
Torys 124
Lib Dems 34
SNP 26
Not qs bad as it could be for the tory party...
My auntie kept a Rhodesian Ridgebacks. These were (to me) massive dogs, and felt aggressive even when running around. But they lived on a farm, and had a couple of acres to run around. There were also always at least two on the farm. They were as soppy as anything, and the only time they caused me any hard was when one knocked me over whilst I was on one leg pulling on my workboots. They were lovely.
A South London friend kept greyhaunds on a high floor of a tower block. The greyhounds - usually seen as soppy dogs - were mad. Because they only got exercised once a day.
It is the dogs; but it is also the owner.
And I get the mountain Labour have to climb. And that there is a year or so for swingback to happen.
But Kinnock wasn't recording twenty point leads in 1991. Cameron got a few around the 2009 Euro elections, but they were distorted by a UKIP surge. For most of 2009, his leads were low to mid teens.
If the polls are going to close, they need to get a move on.
Surprised at what you say about the greyhounds. They need remarkably little exercise, and are typically gentle creatures.
Fantastique
Labour 50% Conservative 19% with a prediction of nil seats
Certainly if these polls continue with no outside events intervening the Conservatives are heading into a very big defeat indeed
And changing Sunak is not the answer
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tactical-voting-general-election-tory-defeat-sunak-starmer-b2407871.html
Electoral Calculus, since you ask.
https://www.newindianexpress.com/prabhu-chawla/column/2023/sep/10/hindu-rishi-versus-british-sunak-2613369.html
We have a fat, ponderous Beagle who is one hell of a trip hazard.
On a more serious note. Anything with bull terrier in the title should be avoided. XL Bullies? Ridiculous, get rid now. Personally, I'd ban Staffies too. The weapon of choice for a Tipton drug dealer.
Because elected officials have decided boundaries since the beginning of the US, usually a governor working with a majorities in the legislature. (Both houses, except in Nebraska, which has a unicameral (and nonpartisan) legislature).
And many of those officials have helped themselves, and their allies, stay in power, by drawing those boundaries.
States that have citizen initiatives could, in principle, change that for their states, by setting up commissions. There are now eight states that use commissions to draw boundaries: Washington, California, Idaho, Montana, Arizona, Wyoming, Michigan and Virginia.) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerrymandering_in_the_United_States
But to change it nationally would take a Constitutional amendment.
Water management is a massive part of the architect's art here in the UK. If you give water an inch, it will take a mile. And that requires good and often regular maintenance. Which architects more often than not ignore.
I guess there are a few straws in the wind for those who believe Labour's lead is a mile wide but an inch deep - lots of ex-Tories saying don't know, lack of love for Starmer, Uxbridge - but the elephant in the room is the consistency of the lead. It does look a lot as if, whether they are wildly enthusiastic or not, people have concluded it's a change election.
https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2023-09-09/sunak-and-starmer-have-work-to-do-to-win-over-welsh-public-poll-shows
My auntie's Rhodesian Ridgeback's are the only ones I have known, and I agree. They were wonderful.
Myself and a friend got attacked by a Doberman once in a pub, and it put me off large dogs for life. My friend had to have stitches in his nose. It was the landlord's dog...
Edit: mad != dangerous. They were just running around the flat wildly.
Total well 40% (-4)
Total badly 49% (+9)
Don't know 11% (-6)
I don't think we'll see any useful reform doggy fashion from the Tories, apart from adding American bullies to the DDA.
I assume some formal action and compensation followed?
Here's sad news from Romford's MP. And yes, Buster did go round wearing a Union Jack waistcoat.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/londoners-diary/londoner-s-diary-parliament-s-top-dog-buster-has-woofed-his-last-a3600056.html
The real shocker is Andrew RT Davies, with 13% consider he is doing a good job. I'll have a pint of whatever they are drinking. Rishi should hang around more with RT. Relatively speaking, Rishi would appear awesome.
17th September is going to be a very interesting day, though the new 30mph signs on display in our area look as if the LA may just be being sensible
They're like sheep.
Which you were told at the time; you couldn’t have got more warnings. But winning last time was all that mattered, apparently.
Mine’s not so hard; I am having dinner by a roundabout. While they build a giant scaffold thing on the road on the other side for a music concert next weekend, by which time me and the dog will be in Slovenia.