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Is Sunak too rich to be an election winner? – politicalbetting.com
Is Sunak too rich to be an election winner? – politicalbetting.com
At the next election if Sunak is still leader then the Tories will be trying to hold onto power with a prime minister who is simply far more prosperous than more than 99. 9% of the electorate.
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That said, CCHQ might agree with OGH given this helicopter story:-
Government shelves £40m contract for helicopter transport for Rishi Sunak
Tender to provide aircraft for PM and other ministers withdrawn after criticism of his short-distance flights
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/aug/30/rishi-sunaks-helicopter-transport-will-not-be-renewed?ref=biztoc.com
Gross misconduct by police to result in automatic dismissal
Staff who fail re-vetting can also be sacked under UK government reforms of disciplinary system
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/aug/31/gross-misconduct-to-automatically-result-in-police-officer-dismissal
He's not, so it probably does.
First impressions: this announcement smacks of headline-chasing, and is there a spread market on the number of appeals and tribunals that result? Has the timetable been rushed because the Home Secretary needs to demonstrate some success or even usefulness prior to the rumoured reshuffle?
Does it matter? Yes.
He isn't, so it does.
DJL's first rule of politics: most things that ought to matter, don't.
She also gave an interview to Today recently, which is unusual.
Guiliani lost the libel case by default, as he refused to comply with discovery orders.
Huge win for Freeman and Moss and defeat for Rudy, but I wonder what discovery he is hiding? I suspect it is pretty bad- ie criminally damning- for him to risk this result which is financially ruinous and predicated on his discovery violations.
https://twitter.com/AWeissmann_/status/1696913912841580669
If people were feeling secure themselves it would be less of an issue.
If he came across as someone who could relate to normal people, and understand their concerns it wouldn't be such an issue either.
And if he was able to handle it being raised in a charming or self-deprecating manner then it would also disarm it as an issue.
The problem is that none of the above is the case with him it seems. People aren't feeling secure, he comes across as out of touch. And whenever the issue is raised he comes across as prickly and defensive.
Chechnya’s leader Ramzan Kadyrov pledges to carry out any order Putin makes even if it results in his death
Prigozhin’s death is leading to even more flowery public expressions of fealty from Putin’s inner circle
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1696960869182181552
Also, Sunak's predecessors knew when to turn on the frugality. Even if it was performative, it took the edge off things when everyone's living standards fell.
To return to something I've said before, Sunak's political CV needed a go at being a Conservative campaigner in Grimton North and a Ministerial role at Health or Work'n'Pensions to fill in the gaps in his life experience.
And it's unfortunate that his name even sounds a bit like "rich".
None of it helps, and it all adds up, fairly or not.
Labour and Tories ‘out of step’ with cost of living concerns – poll
Labour viewed as better placed to tackle crisis but voters sceptical it is a priority for either party
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/aug/31/labour-and-tories-out-of-step-with-cost-of-living-concerns-poll
I guess from voters' perspectives the distance between a multi millionaire Whitehall politician and a Whitehall politician isn't that large, compared to the distance of either from them.
...Policies that cut energy prices, raised the minimum wage and reduced housing costs proved more favourable than tax cuts, the YouGov poll conducted among 2,000 adults found...
Suggesting reducing housing costs is a good thing is treated by some as like wishing for a plague.
It isn't his biggest problem though, that is that a high proportion of Britons are financially worse off than 5 years ago.
His second biggest problem is that the government are seen as a gang of fifth-rate, drunken, incompetent criminals who couldn't run a Subway drive thru on Sark.
His *biggest* problem is that they are.
RSPB apologises for calling ministers 'liars' over environment pledges
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66666435
I mean, it's a simple statement of fact. The government has lied, and it's not just lying about this either. Its transport and education policies both spring to mind.
The idea of another Tory leadership election is also ludicrous. Given what they inherited from Truss and Kwarteng Sunak and Hunt are doing as best they can. It is the policies and record of the government that are relevant, especially on reducing inflation and the economy, another leadership election would make no difference and may even make it worse
Overall though, freezing tax thresholds during a time of inflation is obscene. It means even people who get inflation meeting pay rises are still worse off, and because of tax rising choices made in Downing Street not because of inflation.
Compounding that pain by recommending below inflation pay rises is even worse.
And not building sufficient houses and standing in the way of more is compounding the worst cost of living issue for tens of millions and preventing people from getting on the ladder and becoming the Tories of the future.
Sunak may be doing his best, but his best is not good enough.
If the Tories can do better, they should, no matter how ridiculous that may seem.
If the Tories can't do any better, they need some time in Opposition to rethink their priorities.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66667039
Fine invention, sir. Bravo.
Watch them announce some utter twonk with no clue about defence. We had the story the other day that all our fast attack subs are docked and unserviceable, so they're bound to get some absolute spanner in the role to lie and sneer.
AAAAAAAARRRRRGGGGGHHHHHHHH!!!! PANIC!!!
I'm still not sure this would matter if the economy was doing well, and incomes were rising, but it makes it much more likely he gets the tone wrong.
My mum voted for Truss over Sunak in the membership vote because she didn't think he was committed to the country. I don't think this was racism, but rather his Green Card, Non-dom wife. In the words of Mrs May "a Citizen of Nowhere".
Gove
Hunt
Mordaunt
Barclay
Cleverly
Dowden
Donelan
Tugendhat
McVey
Worse:
Braverman
Badenoch
Shapps
Patel
Hancock
Williamson
Armageddon worst:
Mogg
Not put down Javid or Wallace as they're standing down.
If the party is mad enough to pull the trigger (and it is) then I have to assume that a Blood and Thunder politician is what would be needed for a 6 month political culture war before the election in January 25. So rule out snore merchants like Barclay and Mordaunt. And I'm not convinced either of the other two will cut it either.
You're going to be fighting hard against the RefUK/Reform axis, and that means needing a proper English battler screaming abuse at the forrin. May as well just make Lee Anderson the PM. "Vote Tory or Fuck Off".
The issue in the last leadership contest (as opposed to process) was both candidates were deeply flawed. However, there's flawed and there's off the charts.
Congratulations HYUFD!
You live in Lancashire. I was just wondering if you had any insight into the new seat arrangements in Wallace's area.
It looks to me from the way the boundaries are redrawn that Lancaster suddenly becomes very much in play for the Tories by losing Fleetwood and picking up Garstang, while on current polls the revamped Blackpool North would surely look tempting for Labour.
Any thoughts?
Truss made mistakes with the mini budget, but before her demise she'd already sacked Kwarteng and replaced him with Hunt and rolled back those mistakes.
Too little, too late, but at least she was willing to learn from her mistakes. Where has Sunak done that?
Truss was right that the priority needs to be to grow the economy. You may say that's a truism everyone believes in, but its not at all apparent that everyone does. Sunak seems to want to manage decline and redirect taxes from those working to client voters and stuff anyone working for a living who is struggling to make ends meet - have some below inflation pay rises and fiscal drag to compound the pain.
Of your "Better" list, Govey could do it but is Scottish, Tugendhat possibly but posh. McVey would be great sport but do they want another woman hectoring voters? Yes that is un-PC, but so are a lot of the red wall voters they need to rescue.
Can't see any of the "Worse" list getting anywhere near it. Remember that the Tories would only be electing the war PM, not a long-termer. As soon as they win the election they could oust them and put in someone they actually want.
Its completely mad, and they'd be challenging Tory since Alfred the Great seats in the blue wall to vote Tory or else, but I've just got this mad image of Lee Anderson as PM, a roaring "have at them" kind of figure in the mould of Geoffrey Cox. Literally shouting across the commons at Labour with Tory backbenchers whipped into a frenzy...
Everyone also wants to keep one of the part of the structure that keeps the economy as it is. Which adds up to keeping all of them.
Until someone is prepared to break a lot of rice bowls, this will continue.
What an utterly depressing state the conservative party is in if those are the choices
Clue: non-dom doesn't count in many people's eyes.
For not being True Church Of Englanders.
She's fairly mainstream or mainstream Tory on many issues, but you can't blame a Tory for treating her with suspicion.
So yes Labour currently hold the soon to be abolished Lancaster and Fleetwood, most of which is going to become Lancaster and Wyre, so that may seem a possible Tory pick-up, but Lancaster and Wyre used to be Ben Wallace's constituency which became Wyre and Preston North and is also being abolished. So is it becoming 'in play' or on a party-political basis should it be viewed as the already 'in play' Wyre and Preston North constituency?
My guess is that in a swing election then both of those constituencies would be in play as swing constituencies.
As I don't think the next election is going to be a swing election, I suspect they'll both be Labour next time.
The acute one is that Boris surrounded himself with pinheads and nitwits because it made him look big by comparison. Sunak and Truss were put in the heir apparent roles because they weren't that good.
The chronic one is that Conservatism does need to be tempered by something humane. For a long time, it was The War that did that. Now, there's a real risk of the Conservatives becoming a party of self-made men worshipping their creator. I don't know what keeps them humble. A decade in opposition?
https://www.which.co.uk/news/article/why-having-8000-of-savings-could-earn-you-a-tax-bill-abDnX2X1XvH7
It doesn't help that National Savings have changed their multi-year bonds (the ones on which you do pay income tax). You can't get the money out early, with or without penalty. So under HMRC rules all the interest is debited in the final year for tax purposes. Which is not helpful.
This is, of course, going to hit pensioners in partciular. Noticeable howling on DM comments - which might seem odd, as this is simply a reflection of an increase in income ... but folk aren't logical.
She was the longest-serving Cabinet member IIRC before she became PM, having been in the Cabinet continuously under Cameron, May and Johnson. She wasn't just appointed by Boris.
Truss was being touted as a future PM while Cameron was PM. Indeed, she was even mentioned as a possible future Tory leader before she even became an MP, while Labour were still in office.
Her rather unfortunate tenure as PM doesn't mean she's a complete oddball only appointed to make Boris look better.
And even as a pretty shit Labour MP, Cat Smith seems safe.
Londoners are divided on the recent ULEZ expansion
47% support
42% oppose
There is a clear divide between inner Londoners (who support by 62% to 26%) and outer Londoners (who oppose by 51% to 38%)
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1696832468274258017
As noted here, it looks like there’s a London mayoral poll (by party) buried in the weights of the latest YouGov ULEZ questions.
LAB: 47% (+7)
CON: 29% (-6)
GRN: 9% (+1)
LDM: 8% (+4)
OTH: 6% (-6)
https://twitter.com/patrickjfl/status/1696933577001218242
The race to be the most ludicrous right wing nutter seems almost Trump-cult-ish (see also IDS endorsing the smashing of ULEZ cameras). Wisely they've kept a degree of executive control in leadership elections, but still - the average Tory member seems now quite out of touch with the average Tory voter.
Her Thatcher tribute act, while misunderstanding Thatcher, during the leadership contest was somewhat odd though.
I mean don't rub our noses in it.
He might be a bit less frit about forcing the Army to make hard decisions. Fat Legolas was in a state of total pie and chips induced torpor on that front.
Yet another coup in a former French colony.
Or Bongo Jnr asking for help in the English language.
The Tories have absolutely broken the ability of so many families to get by, and also broken the budgets of the schools who are left to pick up the pieces.
https://www.ft.com/content/96a37654-f8ea-46e3-a5ab-ca1d69dc5ea0
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/ben-wallaces-resignation-letter-and-the-prime-ministers-response-31-august-2023
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-york-north-yorkshire-61981623
A strong and youthful leader who actually has the nerve to stand up to the ERG-ers, the NatCons and the Boris Cult, and to bin off clowns like Braverman - instead focusing on bringing through actually intelligent and talented MPs, is what they need. Sunak does come across as a fairly decent, humane chap, but he is weak and politically inept.
The system of patronage, which was at its worst under Spaffer, needs to be looked at too. Truss, a person utterly unsuitable for junior ministerial roles, let alone PM, managed to achieve the latter essentially through toadying her way up the ladder before imposing her lower-sixth form room economics on the nation with ruinous consequences for many.
Mourdaunt appears to have no substance behind a very good presence. Gove and in particular Mcvey are plain scary.
Does look like Shapps for Defence. Wonder who’s going to get his present job. Energy, IIRC.
On the question of vanishing MP’s! while Priti Patel was Home Secretary her constituents heard virtually nothing from her. We’ve now had a newsletter each month!
OK so friends might say something and actually vote something else, but people who fell the need to lie to friends, don't usually stay friends for very long.
Makes me wistful for Monday when it begins again, worse.