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Will an 81-year-old Biden really be on the ballot in Iowa? – politicalbetting.com
Will an 81-year-old Biden really be on the ballot in Iowa? – politicalbetting.com
I have never been really confident that Joe Biden will seek a second term in next year’s presidential election. The reason is fairly obvious – he is just too old and if he were to serve a full second term he would be 86 by the time he handled a handed over to his successor.
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(Edit - and in terms of the article, I wonder if Biden is waiting to see what happens on the Republican side. If it looks like Trump is going to be the nominee, then Biden will want to run again to make sure that Trump's beaten, and suspect that he doesn't think Harris or Buttigieg or whoever will do that. If it's someone other than Trump then I suspect he'll be more OK letting it be someone else that runs. The difficulty is that the Dem and Rep primaries run alongside one another - so either he pulls out genuinely last minute (ie basically at the convention) in which case it surely has to be his proposed VP that then heads the ticket, or he has to make a call prior to the Reps confirming one way or the other.)
Joe Biden
+£504.66
The field
+£114.71
is my Dem nom book.
Ensure you're long Harris would be my advice for those worried about Biden dropping out.
Not the worst idea in the world. It kind of worked when Boris Johnson was a mascot for the office of the Mayor of London, and worked less well when he attempted to actually make policy as PM. Other countries have ceremonial presidents and it works well. Biden of course being Irish, this would be in keeping with the ceremonial Irish presidency.
The hitch is that nobody knows when Iowa Dems are going to have their caucus, and also it's sort of not a caucus.
Mind you I think I remember saying a similar thing back in 2020 and that turned out to be wrong.
Glenn Youngkin is someone who has moved in to ~ 65-1 despite not being in the GOP debates or running.
Good point. Might he also change running mate if he does run?
(I missed the rest of the debate coz I went off to watch Taboo (very good))
“Yes I am but don't tell Leon that, it would spoil his fun
And I do work with the Northern Syria Early Neolithic project. I was fortunate enough about a decade ago to acquire the library of Sir Max Mallowan including many of his field notebooks of his work in Northern Syria. This resulted in me making contacts with the archaeologists working there and I have done the occasional bits of research work over the years. Although there was a long hiatus during the ISIS takeover.
Some of my collection is also on display at the Vessuna Roman Museum in Perigueux and I have been providing research materials on early cylinder seals to the Lebanese author Hooda Shawa.
But apparently I am just a dumb oilman who knows nothing compared to a tourist who likes a drink.”
+++
Fair play. I relish a good put down - and that’s an impressive example. You know your archaeology 👍 and I withdraw my accusation that you are “just an oilman in Lincolnshire”
But I am - nonetheless - right on the specific case of Gobekli Tepe and the Tas Tepeler. If you go there and get to know the archaeologists - which you haven’t and you don’t - then they relax and give you their real opinions. And they believe they probably are “digging up a lost civilisation”. They whisper it -rather than shout it online - precisely because it sounds like a bad Netflix series
It’s the most likely explanation for what they are now unearthing
So on that specific point Graham Hancock has been “validated”. Tho he may have simply got lucky with his thesis
The rest of his speculations are fun populist woo archaeology, and should be seen as such. His detractors take him too seriously, paradoxically
Whereas PMs have 13 under 45 and 6 over 65, over a third of the total.
Insurance companies time to adopt the brace position, especially if it jogs east closer to Tampa Bay.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5de84b1bc01c8662695502197c12545a0141d7e24c9ee82b8dc2ec58bc8b859d.png
The one time it came close was in 1872, when defeated Democrat Horace Greeley died three weeks after the election. His electors splintered several ways, with several effectively abstaining.
Different rules of course would apply if Biden died before the electors cast their votes and if he died after Harris had certified the result. If the result has been certified, then (Harris as) the Vice-President would automatically become President.
If it was beforehand I suppose in theory the Democratic Party could order its voters to vote for somebody else e.g. Gretchen Whitmer or Buttigieg. But it seems a bit unlikely. However, the electors couldn't vote for Biden as he wouldn't meet the criteria (on account of being dead) and of course they couldn't vote for his running mate as both President and Vice-President. So they would need to find a new Vice-President in some haste.
The most entertaining scenario would be if Biden died immediately after the election having nominated another running mate. Harris then becomes President and could in theory take over the votes *and* the running mate...which would cause massive confusion!
I suppose over the next few years we will find out who is right on this either way. It does look like the area has dozens of these hilltop temples waiting to be found but I still don't see it as anything that rocks the archaeological boat in the way Hancock would like to claim. All the more so when his other 'evidence' is so clearly wrong.
Edit: I would add that the reason his detractors get so annoyed with him is the amount of time he spends claiming that archaeologists are hiding or suppressing stuff when all they are doing is expressing the uncertainty of so much of what they do. As professionals they don't have the luxury of leaping onto every far out theory when there is no real evidence for it.
You can buy insurance for another person as long as you are able to take a policy and there would be some provable financial loss if they died. This is called ‘insurable interest’.
Would a bet on the US presidency be an ‘insurable interest’?
Asking for some friends …
Add in the consistent motifs in the often-beautiful sculptures and friezes, the evidence of advanced architecture (shrines, auditoriums, water pipes) - and the incredible age - 12,000 years, 7000 years older than Sumeria - and how else do you describe this? It’s a lost civilisation
And yes it is absolutely revolutionary. Pre-ceramic, pre-agriculture. How did they do it? Did they have writing? No one knows. Which makes it a magnificent mystery
I have personal photos to evidence all this but I do not wish to spam the site with “penis chambers” before noon
https://fiscalnote.com/blog/how-old-118th-congress
Especially for @RochdalePioneers on the Graun feed ....
"UK government confirms another delay to post-Brexit food checks
The UK government has confirmed that it will delay the introduction of post-Brexit checks on food by another three months, after warnings the long-promised new regime would not be ready in time.
The UK’s Cabinet Office said that “remaining sanitary and phytosanitary controls, as well as full customs controls for non-qualifying Northern Ireland goods, […] will now be introduced from January 2024.
The government had said in April that new checks would come into force on Halloween, 31 October."
It was the French putting in a badly formatted flight plan.
Please don't tell me the input isn't properly checked/sanitised? Is there a Bobby Tables registered as a pilot?
[ https://xkcd.com/327/ ]
So cockup, not conspiracy.
It's hard to see the how the Democrats avoid a chaotic fight if Biden were to step down at the last minute.
Harris has too poor a public image to get it unopposed, but there's no single obvious alternative - and a number of possibles.
For that reason, if no other, I think Mike's theory is implausible.
And for president, with an at least evens chance of being re-elected, to voluntarily step down after a single term seems equally unlikely.
However, Biden evidently hugely enjoys the job and feels he is up to it.
There is a danger of overestimating the political element of this calculation, and grossly underestimating the personal element. He clearly didn't enjoy his brief retirement, and has relished being back at the centre.
Few recent Presidents compare to Biden in terms of sheer love of the job. Trump is clearly desperate to get it back, but that's revenge and love of the crowds - ironically he always looked f***ing miserable when he actually had to be President.
See here
What is this 12,000 year old room? WTF is it for?
At the moment, the best archaeological guess is that it is an initiation room for young adult males. It would have been roofed and dark. The boys would have stepped through the small door on the left, the room would have been half full of liquid piped in using the circled water channel. The liquid might have been animal blood - so one archaeologist told me. It might have poured through the mouth of the weird “head” acting as a spout. Then some ritual - sacrifice? Circumcision? Baptism? - would have been enacted. The boy becomes a man - a hunter - and then returns to the “audience room” just outside
This is 12,000 years old!!! Anyone who doesn’t find this seriously weird, brilliant, spooky, compelling and, yes, a *bit Graham Hancocky* is lacking a soul
The rest of his overarching thesis consists of serious and often fascinating archaeology linked by spurious and often ludicrous speculation
He’s fun. He’s speculative. He’s a lot better then Erik von Daniken but should still be taken with a large stone cistern of sacred Siwan salt
His pardon of Nixon is what really cost him the election - and gaffes like this:
"There is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe, and there never will be under a Ford administration."
An interesting question is whether Trump would go on the ballot in States with Democratic contol.
Constitution 14th Amendment, Section 3, has been pointed out:
Section 3.
No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any state, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any state legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any state, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.
The way that reads, he needs a double 2/3 majority in Congress to get on the ballot.
Republican states may try and ignore it; Democratic states may pay attention. And both will end up in the Supreme Court.
Firstly, loyalty to Trump is rather important to Trump (don't know if you've noticed) and Pence has blown that forever.
Secondly, Pence was nominated to reassure the religious right about the twice-divorced, New York "liberal" Trump hiding behind "build the wall" Trump. That's no longer necessary.
Thirdly, the only reason for Pence himself to do it in the incredibly unlikely event of him being asked, is to boost his chances of winning in 2028. But all it would do is alienate everyone who has some respect for him for doing his duty whilst winning over very few of those who condemn him for letting Biden "steal" the election. It's just so damaging to his remaining credibility, it isn't worth it. All very well to be cuckolded by Trump as he was 2016-20 to (as he saw it, and not unreasonably) make him well placed to follow him as President. Hard to make that case now.
So it won't happen.
As opposed to archaeology.
Meanwhile, no matter that we know for sure that Russia launches intense attacks against high profile UK targets on a daily basis, absolutely none ever causes anything more than minor disruption.... no siree.
Hmm... Really?
I mean I appreciate that we do try and cool it with Putin, and do not want to admit points of weakness, but if Estonia, which is a superpower in cyber space and very well defended against Mordor, finds that it has been a tricky week, then I would tend not to believe the "It really isn´t Russia" we get anytime what looks like a blatant cyber attack occurs.
The entire reason Gobekli Tepe (and the new associated sites) is so unexpected, explosive and revolutionary is because it completely overturns the established consensus that agriculture came first (around 8,000 BC in west Eurasia, maybe a little earlier in east Asia) and only THEN could civilisations develop
But the difference is that Biden has a record of genuine achievement both domestically and internationally.
Ford had the US bicentenary celebrations.
I think Biden will rightly feel he can definitely beat Trump. Other candidates might not.
On the other hand it could be true simply because the Tas Tepeler keep surprising on the upside. Just when you think it can’t get any weirder - it gets weirder
And quite deniable.
A neolithic wooden trackway was discovered here in the Flatlands - it had been preserved in the peat. Quite a remarkable find really but as it was in a forgotten corner of the country not a lot was made of it.
Apparently - despite the lack of any artifacts - archaeologists say it must have been a route to a 'ritual platform'. Not the rather obvious purpose of a track to get to the other side of a wet area...
Secondly, it doesn't refer to getting on the ballot. So take a candidate for Senator who had committed some kind of treason offence. Absent anything in a state constitution, she could be on the ballot for Senate... it's just when it comes to being seated by Congress the following January if elected.
I am giving you the precise opinions of the professional archaeologists at Karahan/Gobekli Tepe
These theories aren’t mine, they are the theories of the experts digging up the sites
Granted the recent finds are unpredicted, and impressive - but in the absence of writing, or primitive mathematics, or metallurgy (which would be genuinely remarkable discoveries), are they really the development of civilisation ?
I recall one post apocalypse fantasy novel where a future church used what were clearly meant to be (non functioning) mobile phones as holy artefacts as they knew people used them to communicate with unseen forces so assumed they were about talking to the divine.
Who needs it for civilisation? Some pretty strong hunter-gatherer cultures, especially in rich areas - NW North America salmon rivers.
There is near-zero evidence of human habitation at Gobekli Tepe (there is evidence at the other Tas Tepeler). Why build it? It is surely a temple; it is also, it seems, aligned astronomically
Some kind of penis worshipping hunter-warrior cult (with human sacrifice?) is the best guess at the moment
I'm not quite sure what to make of it - since it seems fairly clear he was aware of its existence.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/18/san-francisco-gavin-newsom-homeless-00111777
Also they had massive vats for brewing beer. In 10,000 BC. I’m calling that a “civilisation”
“From this evidence, researchers conclude that Göbekli Tepe was a vast festival site where Stone Age men and women came to feast and to drink beer by the trough-load.”
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/sep/01/social-drinking-moderation-health-risks
But how do you build a temple without living there, at least for some of the time?
And if you know how to build things, why not build houses?
The room was called Common Tawree.
12,000 years from now, they were saying, there will be a room full of Common Tawrees, and they will all be massive dicks.
The cave with pillars is actually a mosh pit.
I'll start writing the paper now.