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Punters edging away from the LDs in Mid Beds – politicalbetting.com
Punters edging away from the LDs in Mid Beds – politicalbetting.com
I find the Mid-Beds by-election hard to read and as yet I have made a bet. We’ve got to see how things develop once the election date is decided – something that can’t happen until Parliament is sitting.
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edit: and first. And they won't win.
Picking a Black immigrant from Nigeria, certainly nice contrast to notable right-wing racist twits selected by Tory Party for this seat, in the not-so-distant past.
North Dakota is interesting. AND confirms my strong suspicion, that alleged 2024 candidate for GOP POTUS nomination, ND Gov. Doug Burgum, is just (another) shill pimping for Trump by helping further fractionate the Republican vote.
Which is also the effective role being played by Tim Scott and Vivek Ramaswamy.
And also, ironically (or maybe not) by Mike Pence and Chris Christie.
Which does NOT preclude these "hopefuls" from having other agendas, notably for Scott and Ramaswamy anyway, the traditional prospect of VP pick OR cabinet OR other federal appointment under Trump's Second Cumming.
As for Pence and Christie, methinks that ego is bigger drive than any anti-Trumpism.
Because everyone loves Police & Crime Commissioners, right? The guy round here is a household name and #1 pinup. Dave someone, I think. Or is it Matt. Definitely Matt. Hancock maybe?
AP (via Seattle Times) - Ceremony marks start of journey home for Indigenous totem pole taken to Scotland a century ago
Members of a Canadian First Nation held a spiritual ceremony on Monday at a Scottish museum to begin the homeward journey of a totem pole stolen almost a century ago.
The 11-meter (36-foot) pole is being restored by the National Museum of Scotland to the Nisga’a Nation in northern British Columbia — one of the first times a British museum has returned artifacts to any of North America’s Indigenous peoples.
The museum agreed last year to return the pole, which has been on display in the Edinburgh building since 1930. Nisga’a researchers say it was taken without consent in 1929 by an anthropologist who sold it to the museum.
Chief Earl Stephens, who has the Nisga’a cultural name Sim’oogit Ni’isjoohl, said that “in Nisga’a culture, we believe that this pole is alive with the spirit of our ancestors.”
“After nearly 100 years, we are finally able to bring our dear relative home to rest on Nisga’a lands,” he said.
Carved from red cedar in the 1860s, the pole includes family crests and animal and human figures. It commemorates the Nisga’a warrior Ts’aawit and stood outside his relatives’ home for 70 years before being removed while villagers were away for the annual hunting season. . .
This kind of bareface theft was commonplace in the Pacific Northwest until mid-20th century.
AND not just re: totem poles, certainly NOT in British Columbia . . .
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Columbia_Treaty_Process
He sounds intelligent, and can communicate well, but what he's saying absolutely isn't smart.
Hopefully whoever wins next year is someone that will unambiguously continue to support Ukraine..
UNLESS Ramaswamy's REAL goal is being a player in the (God forbid) NEXT Trump Administration.
Either as Vice President or major cabinet secretary.
Same as for Scott and Burgum methinks.
Labour are also polling higher than at the time of the North Shropshire by election which they could have contested but didn't. The fact the LDs are already attacking the Labour candidate for not being local will likely anger Labour too and they will not give the LDs a clear dum this time
And I imagine that the police won't be getting much oversight when the PCC is too busy campaigning in the by-election.
It is a non-job. Get rid.
Which is utterly disengenuous on the part of Biden. The objection to Ukraine in the US, is mostly centered around the cost of the war set against domestic priorities.
The problem is that the cost of the war isn’t the cost of the war. Biden’s saying that donating a bunch of missiles that were about to be retired, and cost $100m two decades ago, are now “$5bn in aid to Ukraine”, suggesting that he’s making a choice between spending the $5bn in Ukraine and $5bn domestically. When there’s never anything close to actually $5bn going to Ukraine, the marginal cost is no more than the cost of transport planes between the US and Poland.
Marion County Chief of Police refuses to discuss raid on newspaper
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYNTMaqBR0I
Marion police downloaded, kept copy of raided Kansas newspaper's computers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QzP11nMLOUg
Judge who signed Marion Co. Record search warrant has criminal history
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=29cOKQrKRzc
For the US the trend is towards Asia and containing China as the focus, Russia is more a regional European problem for them
Westminster VI (27 August):
Labour 44% (+2)
Conservative 28% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 12% (-1)
Reform UK 7% (–)
Green 4% (-2)
Scottish National Party 3% (–)
Other 3% (+2)
Changes +/- 20 August
Starmer leads Sunak by 10%.
At this moment, which of the following do Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK? (27 August)
Keir Starmer 44% (+4)
Rishi Sunak 34% (+1)
Changes +/- 20 August
Starmer vs Sunak (27 August):
Starmer leads Sunak on ALL 17 leadership characteristic polled, including:
Can bring British people together (48% | 25%)
Stands up for the interests of the UK (43% | 31%)
Is a strong leader (39% | 31%)
Can build a strong economy (39% | 36%)
Rishi Sunak's approval rating is -15%.
Rishi Sunak Approval Rating (27 August):
Disapprove: 45% (-2)
Approve: 30% (+1)
Net: -15% (+3)
Changes +/- 20 August
Keir Starmer's approval rating is +12%.
Keir Starmer Approval Rating (27 August):
Approve: 41% (+2)
Disapprove: 29% (+2)
Net: +12% (–)
Changes +/- 20 August
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton
Business is enmeshed in laws and Ramaswamy would balk at doing a business deal if he felt that the country the business is based in would turn round a year later and seize the assets. But he believes in his genius because, like he’s a billionaire so he’s brilliant.
It’s the one thing to say against the argument that we need more people from business in politics because often, the successful ones, aren’t schooled in the realities of the world at large - the good chap fallacy.
He’s an utter utter arse and more dangerous than Trump as he’s “intelligent” but also stupid.
PB Pop Quiz - why is that?
https://www.meidastouch.com/news/what-a-2nd-trump-cabinet-would-look-like-picks-at-each-position
Also, Trump lawyers always seem fairly barmy - what kind of argument for delay on a trial is 'I'm too busy to make time?' Not time to prepare, just too busy to show up.
Money is the excuse that is being used, but this isn't about money.
This is about the fact that a substantial minority of Americans see Putin sympathetically. Putin has taken on woke. Putin is a strong leader. Putin is supported by people I support.
A lot of people and organisations have been bought, in America and elsewhere.
Schroder in Germany, of course. Sarkozy in France. Salmond in Scotland. And no doubt a fair number of US politicos too.
Putin has been generous with Russia's money, and people are weak.
We need to see Putin defeated not only for the people of Ukraine, but because Russia's interference in Western democracies should bot be tolerated. Those that took his shilling need to be exposed.
With one exception - Zachary Taylor refused to take the oath on a Sunday, so the inauguration for that year (1849) was held on March 5th.
Parents and grandparents are facing a retirement cash crunch as they prepare to contribute a record £8.1bn towards younger buyers’ house purchases this year, a report has warned.
Money from relatives will help fund close to half of all purchases by under-55s in 2023, according to research by Legal & General and the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr).
It is a significant jump from 35pc in 2020, when the research was last carried out. For under-35s, the share is expected to jump from just under half in 2020 to 57pc this year as rising interest rates push up mortgage payments.
The Bank of England has raised interest rates 14 consecutive times since December 2021 to 5.25pc, wiping tens of thousands of pounds off what the average borrower can afford.
The average amount of financial support from relatives is expected to hit £25,600 this year, L&G’s research found.
Bernie Hickman, chief executive of Legal & General Retail, which has 12 million policyholders, warned the record sums put many older people at risk of running out of money later in life.
He said: “Our research clearly shows that gifting or lending money to loved ones to get on the property ladder has noticeably impacted [the givers’] finances.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/08/28/families-fund-record-8bn-family-buy-first-time-house/
Especially in what he's labeled the crime-ridden hell-hole (I paraphrase but not much) of Fulton County.
Seeing as how Atlanta's public defenders have plenty of on-the-job training, assisting other vicious criminals in beating their raps.
The LDs would have to go out a long way before they were anything like value.
The reality was their intervention allowed me to get on the property aged 21 before I had even started work.
I'm an only child, what do parents do if they have more than one child.
https://youtu.be/oAk03it4Z4Y?si=jjO8f86OPIlvTtQf
Interesting that Yes. Inauguration Day was advanced from March to January, as response to the financial crisis of early 1933, when the Great Depression hit bottom in US, banks were failing coast-to-coast, and only response of still-President Herbert Hoover was to badger President-elect Franklin Roosevelt into endorsing HH's already-failed policies. Which FDR refused to do.
The moment my daughter was born I started putting away £100 a month in an ISA with Skandia (later Old Mutual) . When she turned 18 we gave her the choice of using it for paying her University fees or having it for a deposit on a house. In the end she took out the student loan for the tuition fees but nothing for the additional support/living loan. It means she still has a good deposit on a house left over.
We have done the same with my son who is 7 years younger. To pay for it we simply didn't have or do a lot of the things other people do. No fancy holidays, always had second hand cars, no expensive habits.
As you well know.
My own renewal is a mere 57% increase. The annoying thing is that having shopped around, that appears to be the cheapest!
Two things appear to have sent my quotes into the stratosphere. One, its a company car (though I own the company). Two, I had a not my fault accident with a scrote nearly 4 years ago. So far that has been an annoyance rather than an outrage, but this year it is sending quotes crazy. I took it off a comparison website to compare. On the same insurer (and others copied the behaviour:
No accident: £960
Accident other driver's fault: £2,700
Have they all forgotten how to manage risk?
Biden's slow-walking of military aid hasn't gone unnoticed in Ukraine.
What about people whose parents don't have £100 a month to spare?
"Slow-walking" and "over-spending" re: Biden > UKR being two-sides of Trump's current propaganda.
As you well know.
The trouble is that having kids is about making sacrifices and whilst there are many people who are genuinely unable to do that there are also many more who are not willing. They would not sacrifice their holiday in the sun each year or their new car every two years simply to ensure their kids had some support to start them in adult life. And too often these have been people of my age and my 'class' who had all the benefits and are now unwilling to pass them on.
As I say this obviously doesn't apply to everyone, or perhaps even the majority. But if you can afford a foreign holiday every year then you can afford to put something by for your kids' future.
Rwanda springs to mind for some reason!
The thing that keeps me awake at night is that this generation of young people will be faced with the prospect of having to work until they die in their 80s to keep paying their rent as they could never afford to get on to the property ladder.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/aug/28/live-worm-living-womans-brain-australia-depression-forgetfulness
Director bonuses don't pay for themselves.
But.
We're heading for a country where access to family wealth basically decides whether you can begin to buy a home in parts of the country. And without a place to live near London, you can forget a career in some of the more interesting and powerful professions.
I caught a bit of an interview with Melvin Bragg on Saturday. Could someone have his life path (Carlisle pub to Oxford to the BBC) now? I'm pretty sure that it would be much less likely, and Britain in 2050 will be worse for that.
But nothing to do with the trial date.
That is YOUR typical twisting sophistry.
What I am doing, is saying that YOU are the other side of Trump's progaganda on UKR.
As you well know.
Of course, some of us on PB think that that's just dandy and right and proper, maintainiong and worsening educational inequality for a particular political party's benefit.
Which almost makes sense in the context of DeSantis saying he’d invade the place ‘on day one’ of his presidency…
And I see no professions where it is vital to live in or near London, all the more so with the way we are going with communications.
It is still the case that you can choose to live just over an hour from London and buy a house for half the price of the home counties and probably a third of the price of a simlar house in London itself.
The LD's can't win this seat if Labour chooses to play.
In poker terms, they are the short stack.
Blame Truss/Sunak/Covid/Central Banks (delete as appropriate).
The low interest rate world was a mad world. Interest rates have basically been declining since the beginning of the 80’s. The new normal of 5%+ will seem very weird to most working age people.
In some ways I do understand resentment against the older generation, as it is true that, notwithstanding working hard and experiencing their own very difficult times, over the years their mortgages have paid off and in retirement they are mortgage free with a substantial capital asset, and many with private pensions to top up the state pension
The problems facing the younger generation seem insurmountable, and I really fear for those renting with no prospects of owning their property mortgage free going into retirement in the decades to come
Of course building more homes would be of great help, but frankly for all politicians promises I just do not see sufficient being built to meet the ongoing demand
I am very surprised that Starmer and Reeves have rejected any form of wealth tax going forward, as many in the labour party and beyond, including myself, consider some form of wealth tax as an integral part of future taxes
I was talking last week with someone aged 70 whose daughter asked for help with a deposit a few years ago.
He refused. So they had a row, he cut her off and is going to leave the house to an animal charity.
He didn't seem to think that was at all an overreaction to her "cheek".
He seemed to think it was only right and proper. I did try to probe if she had done anything else, or reacted really abusively or violently. But it seems not.
Folk, eh?
I am glad the only arguments I've ever had with my parents over money is when they yell at me for spending money on them.