Stopping the boats, Sunak’s Maginot Line? – politicalbetting.com

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Stopping the boats, Sunak’s Maginot Line? – politicalbetting.com

80% of Britons have little to no confidence the government will reduce the number of asylum seekers crossing the Channel in small boatsAll BritonsConfident: 9%Not confident: 80%Conservative votersConfident: 15%Not confident: 80%https://t.co/35RyIWNPkN pic.twitter.com/dHFfW8kjlG

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edmundintokyo

I think this will still work out OK for the Tories because it'll come down to Con vs Lab and the Tories will wait until right before the election and say something like "we will sink the boats with nuclear submarines" and Labour will say "we are not convinced of the practicality of that idea" and the people who are very upset about the boats will vote for the Tories.

They can't play this card yet because if they say they're going to do something then they actually have to deliver it, which is where it obviously all goes wrong, but 3 weeks from the election it'll work.

MikeL

Not sure if already posted but Mail on Sunday has a poll:

Deltapoll (9-11 August, sample 1,504)

Con 29 (+3)
Lab 46 (-1)
LD 12 (=)
Green 5 (+1)
Reform 4 (=)
SNP 2 (-1)
PC 1
UKIP 1

(changes from 4-7 Aug - per Wiki)

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12401325/Rishi-Sunak-17-points-Starmer-voters-prefer-money-advice-poll-finds-Labour-leader-tops-category.html

El_Capitano

I’m not convinced the boats are an election-winning issue in many constituencies. They may secure some votes in East Coast seats which are nailed-on Con holds anyway. At a pinch they could swing a couple of Red Wall seats for the Tories.

But that’s it. In the Blue Wall they just make the Tories look heartless and are likely to lose votes. Everywhere else they’re an irrelevance.

Otherwise: it’s the economy, stupid. The election will be fought on the cost of living crisis and the associated issue of competence. Right now Sunak is losing squarely on this and I can’t see him turning it round.

Heathener

"Braverman is the sort of person who would unplug an asylum seeker’s life support machine just so she could charge her mobile phone"

Great line!

Sunak is useless. Following Boris Johnson's exit his own MPs could barely muster support for him: only 1/4 of them in the early rounds and below 40% in the penultimate one. Then he lost heavily again amongst his own party members to Liz Truss of all people. When her fiasco ended, he became de facto PM.

He has never been elected leader by the people or his party.

It reminds me a bit of the Gordon Brown situation. Someone who played second fiddle, who people assumed was heir apparent, but who when it came to it was simply not up to the job.

Heathener

Good morning by the way.

That Braverman line from TSE, one of his best, reminds me of the rather cutting one about Morrissey: that he's the sort of person who would wake you up to tell you he's going to bed.



Have a nice day everyone xx

Heathener

Mind you, the best line about Braverman was the one that did the rounds last year from the parody PM account.

'Suella Braverman is what happens when you feed Priti Patel after midnight.'

Heathener

I'm getting a sense that the media narrative is changing. Adam Boulton has a piece on Sky this morning entitled 'Change Election Looms' and although he' being slightly playful because he's initially talking about 75 MPs standing down, the tenor of the piece is about a seachange.

When September comes I think the media will be ready to move on. They can sustain this perhaps for 13 months, although they will be egging Sunak on for the 8 month option. What the media won't tolerate is a PM clinging to power by his fingernails until Jan '25.

It may seem strange to put the election timing in the hands of the media but, to an extent, that is what happens when you don't have a fixed term parliament act. A PM who dithers, or who is seen deliberately to delay in the hope of Miraculous Mr Micawber, soon falls prey to the vultures. Three PMs in my lifetime have been victims of this: John Major in 1997 and Gordon Brown in 2007. Both held out for the longest time and got their comeuppance. I can just about remember Jim Callaghan in 1979 when the same thing happened following the winter of discontent.

Suanak will probably get away with October '24. Just. He'll be eviscerated if he tries the January '25 option.

If you go too long, you lose the media and you lose the election.

(p.s. nice though the current polls are for Labour, I don't trust polling taken during August.)

Scott_xP

...

bondegezou

edmundintokyo said:

I think this will still work out OK for the Tories because it'll come down to Con vs Lab and the Tories will wait until right before the election and say something like "we will sink the boats with nuclear submarines" and Labour will say "we are not convinced of the practicality of that idea" and the people who are very upset about the boats will vote for the Tories.

They can't play this card yet because if they say they're going to do something then they actually have to deliver it, which is where it obviously all goes wrong, but 3 weeks from the election it'll work.

They’ve played that card multiple times before and without success. Doing so again will only remind people of their failure.

Nigelb

He could change the narrative by sacking Braverman.

Nigelb

The US right, ladies and gentlemen.

Fox News anchor: "I remember, 20 years-old, going to Trier, Germany and trying to find the home of Karl Marx 'cause, you know, 1848, he wrote Mein Kampf. I wanted to know what was all about. So, that's part of the education in America."
https://twitter.com/Nantanreikan/status/1689998361758507008

ydoethur

What the fuck are the 13% who think Braverman is doing well smoking, and where can I get some?

DecrepiterJohnL

Heathener said:

I'm getting a sense that the media narrative is changing. Adam Boulton has a piece on Sky this morning entitled 'Change Election Looms' and although he' being slightly playful because he's initially talking about 75 MPs standing down, the tenor of the piece is about a seachange.

When September comes I think the media will be ready to move on. They can sustain this perhaps for 13 months, although they will be egging Sunak on for the 8 month option. What the media won't tolerate is a PM clinging to power by his fingernails until Jan '25.

It may seem strange to put the election timing in the hands of the media but, to an extent, that is what happens when you don't have a fixed term parliament act. A PM who dithers, or who is seen deliberately to delay in the hope of Miraculous Mr Micawber, soon falls prey to the vultures. Three PMs in my lifetime have been victims of this: John Major in 1997 and Gordon Brown in 2007. Both held out for the longest time and got their comeuppance. I can just about remember Jim Callaghan in 1979 when the same thing happened following the winter of discontent.

Suanak will probably get away with October '24. Just. He'll be eviscerated if he tries the January '25 option.

If you go too long, you lose the media and you lose the election.

(p.s. nice though the current polls are for Labour, I don't trust polling taken during August.)

If Sunak goes early, he loses; if Sunak goes late, he loses but has had an extra six months in Downing Street, and there's a remote chance something will turn up.

Nigelb

1848 ?

ydoethur

Nigelb said:

1848 ?

I don’t quite see Starmer as Feargus O’Connor. More Ernest Jones.

ydoethur

Nigelb said:

The US right, ladies and gentlemen.

Fox News anchor: "I remember, 20 years-old, going to Trier, Germany and trying to find the home of Karl Marx 'cause, you know, 1848, he wrote Mein Kampf. I wanted to know what was all about. So, that's part of the education in America."
https://twitter.com/Nantanreikan/status/1689998361758507008

Ah, I’ve just seen this context.

What a numpty. That’s extraordinary.

Sandpit

It’s not something that swings elections as an issue in itself, the economy and cost of living top that list, but it’s a great example of Sunak’s failure to meet his own promises in the eyes of Conservative voters.

He needs to sack Braverman, and replace her with someone who actually will stop the boats.

Nigelb

On topic..

We risk being seen as the ‘nasty party’ again, warn senior Conservatives
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/aug/13/we-risk-being-seen-as-the-nasty-party-again-warn-senior-conservatives

ydoethur

Sandpit said:

It’s not something that swings elections as an issue in itself, the economy and cost of living top that list, but it’s a great example of Sunak’s failure to meet his own promises in the eyes of Conservative voters.

He needs to sack Braverman, and replace her with someone who actually will stop the boats.

never mind the boats. Replacing her with somebody who doesn’t come across as a card carrying lunatic with the intellect of a stuffed rabbit would be a big improvement to start with.

Nigelb

ydoethur said:

What the fuck are the 13% who think Braverman is doing well smoking, and where can I get some?

I'd really rather not.

ydoethur

Nigelb said:

On topic..

We risk being seen as the ‘nasty party’ again, warn senior Conservatives
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/aug/13/we-risk-being-seen-as-the-nasty-party-again-warn-senior-conservatives

I once asked a friend of mine who specialises in military history how risky being a U-boat crew member was.

His answer was, ‘if you were British or American it was very risky. If you were German it was a stone certainty.’

What he said!

Sandpit

It’s clear that the HS doesn’t have a clue where to start. The only positive change that’s been discussed in recent weeks, is to increase fines for employers of illegal immigrants, which is where a lot of the irregular arrivals end up. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-66422763

My comment on this subject from yesterday.
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4504173/#Comment_4504173

There’s a number of pull factors and push factors driving people to the UK specifically, the French appear at best ambivalent to the issue, including to the people traffickers operating in France, and the boats being used are clearly not seaworthy and often overloaded.

The solution is going to be complex and multi-faceted, including encouragement to the French to look at the problems on their side, a focus on refugee camps near war zones, working with UK embassies abroad to fast-track asylum claims, and yes, something like the Rwanda approach for irregular arrivals. It needs to be clear that getting on a small boat won’t end with asylum granted to live in the UK, so that people stop taking the risk.

bondegezou

ydoethur said:

What the fuck are the 13% who think Braverman is doing well smoking, and where can I get some?

Some percentage will have read the question wrong, or misclicked the mouse, or were just giving silly answers.

Sandpit

Latest ConHome cabinet ratings. Braverman higher than expected.


Source: https://conservativehome.com/2023/08/03/our-cabinet-league-table-sunak-moves-out-of-negative-ratings-and-up-into-its-middle/

ydoethur

Sandpit said:

It’s clear that the HS doesn’t have a clue

I’d just have left it there.

ydoethur

Sandpit said:

Latest ConHome cabinet ratings. Braverman higher than expected.


Source: https://conservativehome.com/2023/08/03/our-cabinet-league-table-sunak-moves-out-of-negative-ratings-and-up-into-its-middle/

Braverman, Keegan, Barclay and David TCD in positive territory despite the appalling messes they are overseeing?

That’s genuinely worrying.

Heathener

Sandpit said:

He needs to sack Braverman, and replace her with someone who actually will stop the boats.

Yes but as mentioned below by @El_Capitano it has to be combined with having actual humanity. Otherwise, quite apart from the moral vacuum, you lose both Red and Blue wall.

For example, I have a lifelong Conservative voting friend in Surrey who is utterly appalled by Braverman and has not stopped going on about Robert Jenrick callously painting over the mural in the children's asylum centre.

There are actually a vast swathe of decent people who traditionally vote Conservative. They are being turned off from doing so by the re-emergence of the Nasty Party.

edmundintokyo

bondegezou said:

edmundintokyo said:

I think this will still work out OK for the Tories because it'll come down to Con vs Lab and the Tories will wait until right before the election and say something like "we will sink the boats with nuclear submarines" and Labour will say "we are not convinced of the practicality of that idea" and the people who are very upset about the boats will vote for the Tories.

They can't play this card yet because if they say they're going to do something then they actually have to deliver it, which is where it obviously all goes wrong, but 3 weeks from the election it'll work.

They’ve played that card multiple times before and without success. Doing so again will only remind people of their failure.

Just because they keep playing the card too soon doesn't mean it won't work when they play it at the right time. Between campaigns it's Government vs Reality which is bad for them because they don't have a policy that will stand up to Reality. During the campaign it's Government vs Opposition.

Nigelb

.

ydoethur said:

Sandpit said:

Latest ConHome cabinet ratings. Braverman higher than expected.


Source: https://conservativehome.com/2023/08/03/our-cabinet-league-table-sunak-moves-out-of-negative-ratings-and-up-into-its-middle/

Braverman, Keegan, Barclay and David TCD in positive territory despite the appalling messes they are overseeing?

That’s genuinely worrying.

That's ConHome.

Heathener

Nigelb said:

On topic..

We risk being seen as the ‘nasty party’ again, warn senior Conservatives
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/aug/13/we-risk-being-seen-as-the-nasty-party-again-warn-senior-conservatives

When I wrote about the re-emergence of the Nasty Party I hadn't seen this from Nigel. I am slowly scrolling my way up the page.

This hardline nastiness didn't work in 1997 and it won't work in 2024. The mainstream majority of British people are decent and don't like this kind of thing.

All it does, which may be the point of it, is to shore up the 20% who would still vote Conservative if Enoch Powell's bones were brought back from the grave and appointed leader.

Gardenwalker

I see the government is to appoint a “lavatories tsar” to encourage councils to re-open the 10% of public lavatories that remain shut after the pandemic.

Luckyguy1983

Sandpit said:

It’s clear that the HS doesn’t have a clue where to start. The only positive change that’s been discussed in recent weeks, is to increase fines for employers of illegal immigrants, which is where a lot of the irregular arrivals end up. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-66422763

My comment on this subject from yesterday.
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4504173/#Comment_4504173

There’s a number of pull factors and push factors driving people to the UK specifically, the French appear at best ambivalent to the issue, including to the people traffickers operating in France, and the boats being used are clearly not seaworthy and often overloaded.

The solution is going to be complex and multi-faceted, including encouragement to the French to look at the problems on their side, a focus on refugee camps near war zones, working with UK embassies abroad to fast-track asylum claims, and yes, something like the Rwanda approach for irregular arrivals. It needs to be clear that getting on a small boat won’t end with asylum granted to live in the UK, so that people stop taking the risk.

The money we're giving to France should be payments for numbers of traffickers arrested and charged, number of dinghys and boats impounded and destroyed etc. Yes, they will eventually find a way to game the system, but in the meantime there would be severe disruption to the boats.

Heathener

edmundintokyo said:

bondegezou said:

edmundintokyo said:

I think this will still work out OK for the Tories because it'll come down to Con vs Lab and the Tories will wait until right before the election and say something like "we will sink the boats with nuclear submarines" and Labour will say "we are not convinced of the practicality of that idea" and the people who are very upset about the boats will vote for the Tories.

They can't play this card yet because if they say they're going to do something then they actually have to deliver it, which is where it obviously all goes wrong, but 3 weeks from the election it'll work.

They’ve played that card multiple times before and without success. Doing so again will only remind people of their failure.

Just because they keep playing the card too soon doesn't mean it won't work when they play it at the right time. Between campaigns it's Government vs Reality which is bad for them because they don't have a policy that will stand up to Reality. During the campaign it's Government vs Opposition.

Oh you were serious? I genuinely thought when you mentioned nuking the migrants out of the water that you were joking around.

I still think you must be parodying.

Big_G_NorthWales

Heathener said:

Sandpit said:

He needs to sack Braverman, and replace her with someone who actually will stop the boats.

Yes but as mentioned below by @El_Capitano it has to be combined with having actual humanity. Otherwise, quite apart from the moral vacuum, you lose both Red and Blue wall.

For example, I have a lifelong Conservative voting friend in Surrey who is utterly appalled by Braverman and has not stopped going on about Robert Jenrick callously painting over the mural in the children's asylum centre.

There are actually a vast swathe of decent people who traditionally vote Conservative. They are being turned off from doing so by the re-emergence of the Nasty Party.

Good morning

I am appalled that Braverman and Jenrick are still in post and Sunak needs to remove them both

He has the opportunity in his reshuffle due in a few weeks and after the barge PR disaster the excuse, but sadly I do not have the confidence he will grasp the nettle and do it

Luckyguy1983

Nigelb said:

On topic..

We risk being seen as the ‘nasty party’ again, warn senior Conservatives
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/aug/13/we-risk-being-seen-as-the-nasty-party-again-warn-senior-conservatives

Mayites trashing the party again and reviving the 'nasty party' tag - quelle surprise.

Sandpit

edmundintokyo said:

bondegezou said:

edmundintokyo said:

I think this will still work out OK for the Tories because it'll come down to Con vs Lab and the Tories will wait until right before the election and say something like "we will sink the boats with nuclear submarines" and Labour will say "we are not convinced of the practicality of that idea" and the people who are very upset about the boats will vote for the Tories.

They can't play this card yet because if they say they're going to do something then they actually have to deliver it, which is where it obviously all goes wrong, but 3 weeks from the election it'll work.

They’ve played that card multiple times before and without success. Doing so again will only remind people of their failure.

Just because they keep playing the card too soon doesn't mean it won't work when they play it at the right time. Between campaigns it's Government vs Reality which is bad for them because they don't have a policy that will stand up to Reality. During the campaign it's Government vs Opposition.

There’s an element of that, and this particular issue isn’t something on which the main Opposition parties have a clear answer.

It’s the sort of thing that sees Con voters sit on their hands at the election, or perhaps vote for whatever Farage comes up with, rather than swings votes directly to Lab or LD.

But in the grand scheme of things, dwarfed by concerns for the economy and cost of living. They need to be the PM’s top concerns, and mostly get resolved by sorting Ukraine out.

Heathener

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Heathener said:

Sandpit said:

He needs to sack Braverman, and replace her with someone who actually will stop the boats.

Yes but as mentioned below by @El_Capitano it has to be combined with having actual humanity. Otherwise, quite apart from the moral vacuum, you lose both Red and Blue wall.

For example, I have a lifelong Conservative voting friend in Surrey who is utterly appalled by Braverman and has not stopped going on about Robert Jenrick callously painting over the mural in the children's asylum centre.

There are actually a vast swathe of decent people who traditionally vote Conservative. They are being turned off from doing so by the re-emergence of the Nasty Party.

Good morning

I am appalled that Braverman and Jenrick are still in post and Sunak needs to remove them both

He has the opportunity in his reshuffle due in a few weeks and after the barge PR disaster the excuse, but sadly I do not have the confidence he will grasp the nettle and do it

Good morning @Big_G_NorthWales and agreed.

We may come from either side of the political red-blue divide but you represent the very decent face of Conservatism.

Scott_xP

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I am appalled that Braverman and Jenrick are still in post and Sunak needs to remove them both

He has the opportunity in his reshuffle due in a few weeks and after the barge PR disaster the excuse, but sadly I do not have the confidence he will grasp the nettle and do it

Richi can't sack either of them. He agrees with them.

Big_G_NorthWales

Luckyguy1983 said:

Sandpit said:

It’s clear that the HS doesn’t have a clue where to start. The only positive change that’s been discussed in recent weeks, is to increase fines for employers of illegal immigrants, which is where a lot of the irregular arrivals end up. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-66422763

My comment on this subject from yesterday.
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4504173/#Comment_4504173

There’s a number of pull factors and push factors driving people to the UK specifically, the French appear at best ambivalent to the issue, including to the people traffickers operating in France, and the boats being used are clearly not seaworthy and often overloaded.

The solution is going to be complex and multi-faceted, including encouragement to the French to look at the problems on their side, a focus on refugee camps near war zones, working with UK embassies abroad to fast-track asylum claims, and yes, something like the Rwanda approach for irregular arrivals. It needs to be clear that getting on a small boat won’t end with asylum granted to live in the UK, so that people stop taking the risk.

The money we're giving to France should be payments for numbers of traffickers arrested and charged, number of dinghys and boats impounded and destroyed etc. Yes, they will eventually find a way to game the system, but in the meantime there would be severe disruption to the boats.

I heard Sky suggest that there has recently been a spate of failing or failed boats, including yesterday's tragedy, and that there is a thought that a recent batch bought in Turkey are actually faulty

ydoethur

Gardenwalker said:

I see the government is to appoint a “lavatories tsar” to encourage councils to re-open the 10% of public lavatories that remain shut after the pandemic.

They’d be better off to appoint a Shits Tsar to get rid of all the muck.

Braverman, the board of Thames Water, OFSTED…

Luckyguy1983

Sandpit said:

It’s not something that swings elections as an issue in itself, the economy and cost of living top that list, but it’s a great example of Sunak’s failure to meet his own promises in the eyes of Conservative voters.

He needs to sack Braverman, and replace her with someone who actually will stop the boats.

Tory members evidently feel that Braverman is all in on stopping the boats, but Sunak and others are not supporting her. I tend to agree.

Big_G_NorthWales

Heathener said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Heathener said:

Sandpit said:

He needs to sack Braverman, and replace her with someone who actually will stop the boats.

Yes but as mentioned below by @El_Capitano it has to be combined with having actual humanity. Otherwise, quite apart from the moral vacuum, you lose both Red and Blue wall.

For example, I have a lifelong Conservative voting friend in Surrey who is utterly appalled by Braverman and has not stopped going on about Robert Jenrick callously painting over the mural in the children's asylum centre.

There are actually a vast swathe of decent people who traditionally vote Conservative. They are being turned off from doing so by the re-emergence of the Nasty Party.

Good morning

I am appalled that Braverman and Jenrick are still in post and Sunak needs to remove them both

He has the opportunity in his reshuffle due in a few weeks and after the barge PR disaster the excuse, but sadly I do not have the confidence he will grasp the nettle and do it

Good morning @Big_G_NorthWales and agreed.

We may come from either side of the political red-blue divide but you represent the very decent face of Conservatism.

That is very kind of you - Thank you

I just cannot accept Braverman or Jenrick and the sooner they are sacked the better

Heathener

When I rather naughtily refer to this Government as 'your people' to my lifelong tory voting friend she immediately retorts that, 'these are not my people.'

I mention this because I do believe the current Conservative Government have lost the hearts of a significant portion of their natural supporters.

Until they rediscover that heart they will fail to win a majority.

Big_G_NorthWales

Scott_xP said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I am appalled that Braverman and Jenrick are still in post and Sunak needs to remove them both

He has the opportunity in his reshuffle due in a few weeks and after the barge PR disaster the excuse, but sadly I do not have the confidence he will grasp the nettle and do it

Richi can't sack either of them. He agrees with them.

He is Prime Minister, of course he can sack them and while he wants to stop the boats he needs to change the narrative

DecrepiterJohnL

OT Twitter X, click on Trending/Maddie, find a very nice young lady putting her cat out. Elon's done it again. Have I somehow ticked the "show me porn" option?

Cicero

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Heathener said:

Sandpit said:

He needs to sack Braverman, and replace her with someone who actually will stop the boats.

Yes but as mentioned below by @El_Capitano it has to be combined with having actual humanity. Otherwise, quite apart from the moral vacuum, you lose both Red and Blue wall.

For example, I have a lifelong Conservative voting friend in Surrey who is utterly appalled by Braverman and has not stopped going on about Robert Jenrick callously painting over the mural in the children's asylum centre.

There are actually a vast swathe of decent people who traditionally vote Conservative. They are being turned off from doing so by the re-emergence of the Nasty Party.

Good morning

I am appalled that Braverman and Jenrick are still in post and Sunak needs to remove them both

He has the opportunity in his reshuffle due in a few weeks and after the barge PR disaster the excuse, but sadly I do not have the confidence he will grasp the nettle and do it

I think the point is that it is not just the swing voters that the Tories are losing, they are also losing their core voters too

Sandpit

Luckyguy1983 said:

Sandpit said:

It’s clear that the HS doesn’t have a clue where to start. The only positive change that’s been discussed in recent weeks, is to increase fines for employers of illegal immigrants, which is where a lot of the irregular arrivals end up. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-66422763

My comment on this subject from yesterday.
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4504173/#Comment_4504173

There’s a number of pull factors and push factors driving people to the UK specifically, the French appear at best ambivalent to the issue, including to the people traffickers operating in France, and the boats being used are clearly not seaworthy and often overloaded.

The solution is going to be complex and multi-faceted, including encouragement to the French to look at the problems on their side, a focus on refugee camps near war zones, working with UK embassies abroad to fast-track asylum claims, and yes, something like the Rwanda approach for irregular arrivals. It needs to be clear that getting on a small boat won’t end with asylum granted to live in the UK, so that people stop taking the risk.

The money we're giving to France should be payments for numbers of traffickers arrested and charged, number of dinghys and boats impounded and destroyed etc. Yes, they will eventually find a way to game the system, but in the meantime there would be severe disruption to the boats.

That’s a good point, the assistance to France needs to be based on actual disruption to crossings.

Do we know how French media have reported on the tragedy of a couple of days ago?

noneoftheabove

Heathener said:

When I rather naughtily refer to this Government as 'your people' to my lifelong tory voting friend she immediately retorts that, 'these are not my people.'

I mention this because I do believe the current Conservative Government have lost the hearts of a significant portion of their natural supporters.

Until they rediscover that heart they will fail to win a majority.

Its a tough ask for any party to keep onside a mix of old school Tories, kippers, the Singapore-on-Thames brigade and the red wall switchers. Just about possible when household finances are fine and/or Corbyn your opponent, but gets impossible vs a non threating Labour and devastated household finances.

Big_G_NorthWales

Cicero said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Heathener said:

Sandpit said:

He needs to sack Braverman, and replace her with someone who actually will stop the boats.

Yes but as mentioned below by @El_Capitano it has to be combined with having actual humanity. Otherwise, quite apart from the moral vacuum, you lose both Red and Blue wall.

For example, I have a lifelong Conservative voting friend in Surrey who is utterly appalled by Braverman and has not stopped going on about Robert Jenrick callously painting over the mural in the children's asylum centre.

There are actually a vast swathe of decent people who traditionally vote Conservative. They are being turned off from doing so by the re-emergence of the Nasty Party.

Good morning

I am appalled that Braverman and Jenrick are still in post and Sunak needs to remove them both

He has the opportunity in his reshuffle due in a few weeks and after the barge PR disaster the excuse, but sadly I do not have the confidence he will grasp the nettle and do it

I think the point is that it is not just the swing voters that the Tories are losing, they are also losing their core voters too

As long as Sunak is PM he will not lose my vote, and I expect when an election campaign starts a good number will return but how many will depend on many factors including the cost of living and NHS which will top the list with the boats probably third

Nigelb

It's not going to happen for him even if Trump goes to jail, I think.

‘There’s something missing’: DeSantis can’t escape Trump’s shadow in Iowa
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/12/desantis-trump-iowa-00110963

bondegezou

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Cicero said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Heathener said:

Sandpit said:

He needs to sack Braverman, and replace her with someone who actually will stop the boats.

Yes but as mentioned below by @El_Capitano it has to be combined with having actual humanity. Otherwise, quite apart from the moral vacuum, you lose both Red and Blue wall.

For example, I have a lifelong Conservative voting friend in Surrey who is utterly appalled by Braverman and has not stopped going on about Robert Jenrick callously painting over the mural in the children's asylum centre.

There are actually a vast swathe of decent people who traditionally vote Conservative. They are being turned off from doing so by the re-emergence of the Nasty Party.

Good morning

I am appalled that Braverman and Jenrick are still in post and Sunak needs to remove them both

He has the opportunity in his reshuffle due in a few weeks and after the barge PR disaster the excuse, but sadly I do not have the confidence he will grasp the nettle and do it

I think the point is that it is not just the swing voters that the Tories are losing, they are also losing their core voters too

As long as Sunak is PM he will not lose my vote, and I expect when an election campaign starts a good number will return but how many will depend on many factors including the cost of living and NHS which will top the list with the boats probably third

Boats don’t make the top 5 currently: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/wellbeing/bulletins/publicopinionsandsocialtrendsgreatbritain/26julyto6august2023

edmundintokyo

Heathener said:

edmundintokyo said:

bondegezou said:

edmundintokyo said:

I think this will still work out OK for the Tories because it'll come down to Con vs Lab and the Tories will wait until right before the election and say something like "we will sink the boats with nuclear submarines" and Labour will say "we are not convinced of the practicality of that idea" and the people who are very upset about the boats will vote for the Tories.

They can't play this card yet because if they say they're going to do something then they actually have to deliver it, which is where it obviously all goes wrong, but 3 weeks from the election it'll work.

They’ve played that card multiple times before and without success. Doing so again will only remind people of their failure.

Just because they keep playing the card too soon doesn't mean it won't work when they play it at the right time. Between campaigns it's Government vs Reality which is bad for them because they don't have a policy that will stand up to Reality. During the campaign it's Government vs Opposition.

Oh you were serious? I genuinely thought when you mentioned nuking the migrants out of the water that you were joking around.

I still think you must be parodying.

I'm not saying the nuclear submarines is the actual policy, I just mean it as an example of something decisive-sounding and unconstrained by considerations like whether it would actually work.

Carnyx

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Cicero said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Heathener said:

Sandpit said:

He needs to sack Braverman, and replace her with someone who actually will stop the boats.

Yes but as mentioned below by @El_Capitano it has to be combined with having actual humanity. Otherwise, quite apart from the moral vacuum, you lose both Red and Blue wall.

For example, I have a lifelong Conservative voting friend in Surrey who is utterly appalled by Braverman and has not stopped going on about Robert Jenrick callously painting over the mural in the children's asylum centre.

There are actually a vast swathe of decent people who traditionally vote Conservative. They are being turned off from doing so by the re-emergence of the Nasty Party.

Good morning

I am appalled that Braverman and Jenrick are still in post and Sunak needs to remove them both

He has the opportunity in his reshuffle due in a few weeks and after the barge PR disaster the excuse, but sadly I do not have the confidence he will grasp the nettle and do it

I think the point is that it is not just the swing voters that the Tories are losing, they are also losing their core voters too

As long as Sunak is PM he will not lose my vote, and I expect when an election campaign starts a good number will return but how many will depend on many factors including the cost of living and NHS which will top the list with the boats probably third

But he's responsible for the Home Office, and the boats, too. He selected Ms Braverman and Mr Jenrick.

Nigelb

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Cicero said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Heathener said:

Sandpit said:

He needs to sack Braverman, and replace her with someone who actually will stop the boats.

Yes but as mentioned below by @El_Capitano it has to be combined with having actual humanity. Otherwise, quite apart from the moral vacuum, you lose both Red and Blue wall.

For example, I have a lifelong Conservative voting friend in Surrey who is utterly appalled by Braverman and has not stopped going on about Robert Jenrick callously painting over the mural in the children's asylum centre.

There are actually a vast swathe of decent people who traditionally vote Conservative. They are being turned off from doing so by the re-emergence of the Nasty Party.

Good morning

I am appalled that Braverman and Jenrick are still in post and Sunak needs to remove them both

He has the opportunity in his reshuffle due in a few weeks and after the barge PR disaster the excuse, but sadly I do not have the confidence he will grasp the nettle and do it

I think the point is that it is not just the swing voters that the Tories are losing, they are also losing their core voters too

As long as Sunak is PM he will not lose my vote...

Hey, Suella, Big_G says he'll back whatever you want to do.

Carnyx

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12401425/The-House-Commons-branded-unsuitable-environment-cats-control-rat-infestation.html

So many rats in Palace of Westminster that Battersea Dogs' Home won't provide a cat, for the cat's safety. The problem appears to be the industrial quantities of rat poison being left out.

Miklosvar

Heathener said:

I'm getting a sense that the media narrative is changing. Adam Boulton has a piece on Sky this morning entitled 'Change Election Looms' and although he' being slightly playful because he's initially talking about 75 MPs standing down, the tenor of the piece is about a seachange.

When September comes I think the media will be ready to move on. They can sustain this perhaps for 13 months, although they will be egging Sunak on for the 8 month option. What the media won't tolerate is a PM clinging to power by his fingernails until Jan '25.

It may seem strange to put the election timing in the hands of the media but, to an extent, that is what happens when you don't have a fixed term parliament act. A PM who dithers, or who is seen deliberately to delay in the hope of Miraculous Mr Micawber, soon falls prey to the vultures. Three PMs in my lifetime have been victims of this: John Major in 1997 and Gordon Brown in 2007. Both held out for the longest time and got their comeuppance. I can just about remember Jim Callaghan in 1979 when the same thing happened following the winter of discontent.

Suanak will probably get away with October '24. Just. He'll be eviscerated if he tries the January '25 option.

If you go too long, you lose the media and you lose the election.

(p.s. nice though the current polls are for Labour, I don't trust polling taken during August.)

What is your evidence major would have done better by going earlier?

Brown definitely gained by procrastinating, Con support in the polls fell off the longer he waited.

noneoftheabove

Nigelb said:

It's not going to happen for him even if Trump goes to jail, I think.

‘There’s something missing’: DeSantis can’t escape Trump’s shadow in Iowa
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/12/desantis-trump-iowa-00110963

Too early for an AI human imposter?

Carnyx

Heathener said:

edmundintokyo said:

bondegezou said:

edmundintokyo said:

I think this will still work out OK for the Tories because it'll come down to Con vs Lab and the Tories will wait until right before the election and say something like "we will sink the boats with nuclear submarines" and Labour will say "we are not convinced of the practicality of that idea" and the people who are very upset about the boats will vote for the Tories.

They can't play this card yet because if they say they're going to do something then they actually have to deliver it, which is where it obviously all goes wrong, but 3 weeks from the election it'll work.

They’ve played that card multiple times before and without success. Doing so again will only remind people of their failure.

Just because they keep playing the card too soon doesn't mean it won't work when they play it at the right time. Between campaigns it's Government vs Reality which is bad for them because they don't have a policy that will stand up to Reality. During the campaign it's Government vs Opposition.

Oh you were serious? I genuinely thought when you mentioned nuking the migrants out of the water that you were joking around.

I still think you must be parodying.

TBF a 'nuclear submarine' is one propelled by a nuclear reactor - not the weapons.

But evn an old Mark 8** torpedo, Conqueror and Belgrano style, would be worth vastly more than the average dinghy. If they have any left. The modern electronic ones would be absurdly expensive.

Scott_xP

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Scott_xP said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I am appalled that Braverman and Jenrick are still in post and Sunak needs to remove them both

He has the opportunity in his reshuffle due in a few weeks and after the barge PR disaster the excuse, but sadly I do not have the confidence he will grasp the nettle and do it

Richi can't sack either of them. He agrees with them.

He is Prime Minister, of course he can sack them and while he wants to stop the boats he needs to change the narrative

They are doing what he asked them to do

ydoethur

Carnyx said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12401425/The-House-Commons-branded-unsuitable-environment-cats-control-rat-infestation.html

So many rats in Palace of Westminster that Battersea Dogs' Home won't provide a cat, for the cat's safety. The problem appears to be the industrial quantities of rat poison being left out.

There are 650 in the commons alone. More in the Lords.

bondegezou

ydoethur said:

Carnyx said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12401425/The-House-Commons-branded-unsuitable-environment-cats-control-rat-infestation.html

So many rats in Palace of Westminster that Battersea Dogs' Home won't provide a cat, for the cat's safety. The problem appears to be the industrial quantities of rat poison being left out.

There are 650 in the commons alone. More in the Lords.

Sinn Fein don’t take their seats.

ydoethur

bondegezou said:

ydoethur said:

Carnyx said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12401425/The-House-Commons-branded-unsuitable-environment-cats-control-rat-infestation.html

So many rats in Palace of Westminster that Battersea Dogs' Home won't provide a cat, for the cat's safety. The problem appears to be the industrial quantities of rat poison being left out.

There are 650 in the commons alone. More in the Lords.

Sinn Fein don’t take their seats.

Good point.

643 in the Commons, seven in the wings.

Big_G_NorthWales

Carnyx said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Cicero said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Heathener said:

Sandpit said:

He needs to sack Braverman, and replace her with someone who actually will stop the boats.

Yes but as mentioned below by @El_Capitano it has to be combined with having actual humanity. Otherwise, quite apart from the moral vacuum, you lose both Red and Blue wall.

For example, I have a lifelong Conservative voting friend in Surrey who is utterly appalled by Braverman and has not stopped going on about Robert Jenrick callously painting over the mural in the children's asylum centre.

There are actually a vast swathe of decent people who traditionally vote Conservative. They are being turned off from doing so by the re-emergence of the Nasty Party.

Good morning

I am appalled that Braverman and Jenrick are still in post and Sunak needs to remove them both

He has the opportunity in his reshuffle due in a few weeks and after the barge PR disaster the excuse, but sadly I do not have the confidence he will grasp the nettle and do it

I think the point is that it is not just the swing voters that the Tories are losing, they are also losing their core voters too

As long as Sunak is PM he will not lose my vote, and I expect when an election campaign starts a good number will return but how many will depend on many factors including the cost of living and NHS which will top the list with the boats probably third

But he's responsible for the Home Office, and the boats, too. He selected Ms Braverman and Mr Jenrick.

I agree and he needs to sack Braverman and Jenrick

noneoftheabove

Sandpit said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Sandpit said:

It’s clear that the HS doesn’t have a clue where to start. The only positive change that’s been discussed in recent weeks, is to increase fines for employers of illegal immigrants, which is where a lot of the irregular arrivals end up. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-66422763

My comment on this subject from yesterday.
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4504173/#Comment_4504173

There’s a number of pull factors and push factors driving people to the UK specifically, the French appear at best ambivalent to the issue, including to the people traffickers operating in France, and the boats being used are clearly not seaworthy and often overloaded.

The solution is going to be complex and multi-faceted, including encouragement to the French to look at the problems on their side, a focus on refugee camps near war zones, working with UK embassies abroad to fast-track asylum claims, and yes, something like the Rwanda approach for irregular arrivals. It needs to be clear that getting on a small boat won’t end with asylum granted to live in the UK, so that people stop taking the risk.

The money we're giving to France should be payments for numbers of traffickers arrested and charged, number of dinghys and boats impounded and destroyed etc. Yes, they will eventually find a way to game the system, but in the meantime there would be severe disruption to the boats.

That’s a good point, the assistance to France needs to be based on actual disruption to crossings.

Do we know how French media have reported on the tragedy of a couple of days ago?

The irony is the boat crossings only started in any numbers when we provided financial assistance to France to enable them to build massive walls to stop the lorry crossings.

eek

DecrepiterJohnL said:

OT Twitter X, click on Trending/Maddie, find a very nice young lady putting her cat out. Elon's done it again. Have I somehow ticked the "show me porn" option?

No Twitter has just removed the checks so its easier than ever for Porn to "slip" through the filters..

Big_G_NorthWales

Nigelb said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Cicero said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Heathener said:

Sandpit said:

He needs to sack Braverman, and replace her with someone who actually will stop the boats.

Yes but as mentioned below by @El_Capitano it has to be combined with having actual humanity. Otherwise, quite apart from the moral vacuum, you lose both Red and Blue wall.

For example, I have a lifelong Conservative voting friend in Surrey who is utterly appalled by Braverman and has not stopped going on about Robert Jenrick callously painting over the mural in the children's asylum centre.

There are actually a vast swathe of decent people who traditionally vote Conservative. They are being turned off from doing so by the re-emergence of the Nasty Party.

Good morning

I am appalled that Braverman and Jenrick are still in post and Sunak needs to remove them both

He has the opportunity in his reshuffle due in a few weeks and after the barge PR disaster the excuse, but sadly I do not have the confidence he will grasp the nettle and do it

I think the point is that it is not just the swing voters that the Tories are losing, they are also losing their core voters too

As long as Sunak is PM he will not lose my vote...

Hey, Suella, Big_G says he'll back whatever you want to do.

I think I have made my rejection of Braverman quite clear and want Sunak to sack her

However, the next GE is 15 months away and a lot can change and Starmer is not Blair and I will not vote for labour

Big_G_NorthWales

noneoftheabove said:

Sandpit said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Sandpit said:

It’s clear that the HS doesn’t have a clue where to start. The only positive change that’s been discussed in recent weeks, is to increase fines for employers of illegal immigrants, which is where a lot of the irregular arrivals end up. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-66422763

My comment on this subject from yesterday.
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4504173/#Comment_4504173

There’s a number of pull factors and push factors driving people to the UK specifically, the French appear at best ambivalent to the issue, including to the people traffickers operating in France, and the boats being used are clearly not seaworthy and often overloaded.

The solution is going to be complex and multi-faceted, including encouragement to the French to look at the problems on their side, a focus on refugee camps near war zones, working with UK embassies abroad to fast-track asylum claims, and yes, something like the Rwanda approach for irregular arrivals. It needs to be clear that getting on a small boat won’t end with asylum granted to live in the UK, so that people stop taking the risk.

The money we're giving to France should be payments for numbers of traffickers arrested and charged, number of dinghys and boats impounded and destroyed etc. Yes, they will eventually find a way to game the system, but in the meantime there would be severe disruption to the boats.

That’s a good point, the assistance to France needs to be based on actual disruption to crossings.

Do we know how French media have reported on the tragedy of a couple of days ago?

The irony is the boat crossings only started in any numbers when we provided financial assistance to France to enable them to build massive walls to stop the lorry crossings.

Good point and they worked

noneoftheabove

Big_G_NorthWales said:

noneoftheabove said:

Sandpit said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Sandpit said:

It’s clear that the HS doesn’t have a clue where to start. The only positive change that’s been discussed in recent weeks, is to increase fines for employers of illegal immigrants, which is where a lot of the irregular arrivals end up. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-66422763

My comment on this subject from yesterday.
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4504173/#Comment_4504173

There’s a number of pull factors and push factors driving people to the UK specifically, the French appear at best ambivalent to the issue, including to the people traffickers operating in France, and the boats being used are clearly not seaworthy and often overloaded.

The solution is going to be complex and multi-faceted, including encouragement to the French to look at the problems on their side, a focus on refugee camps near war zones, working with UK embassies abroad to fast-track asylum claims, and yes, something like the Rwanda approach for irregular arrivals. It needs to be clear that getting on a small boat won’t end with asylum granted to live in the UK, so that people stop taking the risk.

The money we're giving to France should be payments for numbers of traffickers arrested and charged, number of dinghys and boats impounded and destroyed etc. Yes, they will eventually find a way to game the system, but in the meantime there would be severe disruption to the boats.

That’s a good point, the assistance to France needs to be based on actual disruption to crossings.

Do we know how French media have reported on the tragedy of a couple of days ago?

The irony is the boat crossings only started in any numbers when we provided financial assistance to France to enable them to build massive walls to stop the lorry crossings.

Good point and they worked

With unintended consquences of making the situation worse....

Fishing

Miklosvar said:

Heathener said:

I'm getting a sense that the media narrative is changing. Adam Boulton has a piece on Sky this morning entitled 'Change Election Looms' and although he' being slightly playful because he's initially talking about 75 MPs standing down, the tenor of the piece is about a seachange.

When September comes I think the media will be ready to move on. They can sustain this perhaps for 13 months, although they will be egging Sunak on for the 8 month option. What the media won't tolerate is a PM clinging to power by his fingernails until Jan '25.

It may seem strange to put the election timing in the hands of the media but, to an extent, that is what happens when you don't have a fixed term parliament act. A PM who dithers, or who is seen deliberately to delay in the hope of Miraculous Mr Micawber, soon falls prey to the vultures. Three PMs in my lifetime have been victims of this: John Major in 1997 and Gordon Brown in 2007. Both held out for the longest time and got their comeuppance. I can just about remember Jim Callaghan in 1979 when the same thing happened following the winter of discontent.

Suanak will probably get away with October '24. Just. He'll be eviscerated if he tries the January '25 option.

If you go too long, you lose the media and you lose the election.

(p.s. nice though the current polls are for Labour, I don't trust polling taken during August.)

What is your evidence major would have done better by going earlier?

Brown definitely gained by procrastinating, Con support in the polls fell off the longer he waited.

Also the media herd always look for novelty, because it's how you get noticed and get clicks/sell papers. So they might get bored of writing "Tories are crap" articles and dust off their "Starmer is crap" articles from a couple of years ago.

Scott_xP

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I think I have made my rejection of Braverman quite clear and want Sunak to sack her

When he doesn't sack her you will still vote for him.

So she carries on.

Stuartinromford

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Carnyx said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Cicero said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Heathener said:

Sandpit said:

He needs to sack Braverman, and replace her with someone who actually will stop the boats.

Yes but as mentioned below by @El_Capitano it has to be combined with having actual humanity. Otherwise, quite apart from the moral vacuum, you lose both Red and Blue wall.

For example, I have a lifelong Conservative voting friend in Surrey who is utterly appalled by Braverman and has not stopped going on about Robert Jenrick callously painting over the mural in the children's asylum centre.

There are actually a vast swathe of decent people who traditionally vote Conservative. They are being turned off from doing so by the re-emergence of the Nasty Party.

Good morning

I am appalled that Braverman and Jenrick are still in post and Sunak needs to remove them both

He has the opportunity in his reshuffle due in a few weeks and after the barge PR disaster the excuse, but sadly I do not have the confidence he will grasp the nettle and do it

I think the point is that it is not just the swing voters that the Tories are losing, they are also losing their core voters too

As long as Sunak is PM he will not lose my vote, and I expect when an election campaign starts a good number will return but how many will depend on many factors including the cost of living and NHS which will top the list with the boats probably third

But he's responsible for the Home Office, and the boats, too. He selected Ms Braverman and Mr Jenrick.

I agree and he needs to sack Braverman and Jenrick

But he's not looking likely to, is he?

Whether that's out of fear of Suella and her fans, or because he approves of what they're doing, hardly matters.

Trouble is that The Boats may be fundamentally Unstoppable.

Carnyx

ydoethur said:

Nigelb said:

On topic..

We risk being seen as the ‘nasty party’ again, warn senior Conservatives
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/aug/13/we-risk-being-seen-as-the-nasty-party-again-warn-senior-conservatives

I once asked a friend of mine who specialises in military history how risky being a U-boat crew member was.

His answer was, ‘if you were British or American it was very risky. If you were German it was a stone certainty.’

What he said!

It was up there with being in Bomber Command 1940-44 as a bad insurance risk (BC in 1945 wasn't much fun either). Worse, probably, IIRC.

Stuartinromford

Meanwhile, Sunday Times so could be nonsense, but this would be awkward;

On Wednesday the Office for National Statistics is due to publish data for last month and is expected to confirm a sharp drop in inflation as measured by the consumer prices index (CPI). Estimates suggest the rate of inflation for July will fall from 7.9 per cent to 7 per cent.

However, The Sunday Times has seen internal government analysis suggesting that Treasury officials are braced for it to increase again this month.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/32a735c4-392b-11ee-b26c-71fc5438c507?shareToken=59620d280251c016880914f593ab3723

Carnyx

Scott_xP said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I think I have made my rejection of Braverman quite clear and want Sunak to sack her

When he doesn't sack her you will still vote for him.

So she carries on.

Also, the RNLI is beginning to get flak all over again. Vide the DM comments.

Will be interesting to see what happens there; bear in mind that the UK is fairly unusual in not having a state maritime rescue ship service (cf. the US Coastguard), allowing of course for the contracted commercial helicopters and what the RN and RAF do on the side from their main missionsm ditto the UK Coastguard, Fishery Patrol, etc.

Benpointer

noneoftheabove said:

Nigelb said:

It's not going to happen for him even if Trump goes to jail, I think.

‘There’s something missing’: DeSantis can’t escape Trump’s shadow in Iowa
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/12/desantis-trump-iowa-00110963

Too early for an AI human imposter?

'Hi ChatGPT, please imitate an inhuman human.'

Carnyx

O/T but specially for TSE: fish and chip pizza. No pineapple in sight.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12399559/The-massive-fish-chip-PIZZA-thats-selling-like-hot-cakes-Country-pub-unveils-16-mega-dish-chef-reveals-invented-dish-twist-old-classic.html

OldKingCole

Stuartinromford said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Carnyx said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Cicero said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Heathener said:

Sandpit said:

He needs to sack Braverman, and replace her with someone who actually will stop the boats.

Yes but as mentioned below by @El_Capitano it has to be combined with having actual humanity. Otherwise, quite apart from the moral vacuum, you lose both Red and Blue wall.

For example, I have a lifelong Conservative voting friend in Surrey who is utterly appalled by Braverman and has not stopped going on about Robert Jenrick callously painting over the mural in the children's asylum centre.

There are actually a vast swathe of decent people who traditionally vote Conservative. They are being turned off from doing so by the re-emergence of the Nasty Party.

Good morning

I am appalled that Braverman and Jenrick are still in post and Sunak needs to remove them both

He has the opportunity in his reshuffle due in a few weeks and after the barge PR disaster the excuse, but sadly I do not have the confidence he will grasp the nettle and do it

I think the point is that it is not just the swing voters that the Tories are losing, they are also losing their core voters too

As long as Sunak is PM he will not lose my vote, and I expect when an election campaign starts a good number will return but how many will depend on many factors including the cost of living and NHS which will top the list with the boats probably third

But he's responsible for the Home Office, and the boats, too. He selected Ms Braverman and Mr Jenrick.

I agree and he needs to sack Braverman and Jenrick

But he's not looking likely to, is he?

Whether that's out of fear of Suella and her fans, or because he approves of what they're doing, hardly matters.

Trouble is that The Boats may be fundamentally Unstoppable.

There are many desperate people trying to get here, either because they regard it as a safe haven or because they’ve got families or friends here. Surely we should be in the camps, trying to give ‘best information’ and therefore just maybe reducing the first group.
That’s as well as pressing on to get all those already here legitimised.

Big_G_NorthWales

Carnyx said:

Scott_xP said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I think I have made my rejection of Braverman quite clear and want Sunak to sack her

When he doesn't sack her you will still vote for him.

So she carries on.

Also, the RNLI is beginning to get flak all over again. Vide the DM comments.

Will be interesting to see what happens there; bear in mind that the UK is fairly unusual in not having a state maritime rescue ship service (cf. the US Coastguard), allowing of course for the contracted commercial helicopters and what the RN and RAF do on the side from their main missionsm ditto the UK Coastguard, Fishery Patrol, etc.

The RNLI will continue to save lives at sea irrespectiv of the politics

Indeed my son has crewed two life saving shouts in the last 5 days

Carnyx

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Carnyx said:

Scott_xP said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I think I have made my rejection of Braverman quite clear and want Sunak to sack her

When he doesn't sack her you will still vote for him.

So she carries on.

Also, the RNLI is beginning to get flak all over again. Vide the DM comments.

Will be interesting to see what happens there; bear in mind that the UK is fairly unusual in not having a state maritime rescue ship service (cf. the US Coastguard), allowing of course for the contracted commercial helicopters and what the RN and RAF do on the side from their main missionsm ditto the UK Coastguard, Fishery Patrol, etc.

The RNLI will continue to save lives at sea irrespectiv of the politics

Indeed my son has crewed two life saving shouts in the last 5 days

This is the party which brought in a bill to prosecute and punish anyone rescuing boat people. Especially the RNLI, as anyone could see at the time. Knee jerk response to hysteria of exactly this type. Edit: thje bill was changed, but only under protest, and a lot later.

Edit: and good for your son. Greatly more than ample reward for my membership sub.

DavidL

The key to successful politics is choosing battles that you can win. This is not one. As African and middle eastern refugees pour into Europe, despite the best efforts of the EU to sell them to Libyan slavers, many are going to feel deeply unwelcome and dream of making it to a more tolerant country like the UK. Only a naïve fool would believe that the French in particular are going to be serious about stopping them going somewhere, anywhere else.

In short, we cannot control the supply and we have a legal structure which makes it impossible to reduce the draw despite the government's absurd efforts. We have as much chance of stopping refugees as we do illegal drugs, a war that we lost a long, long time ago.

TheScreamingEagles

Carnyx said:

O/T but specially for TSE: fish and chip pizza. No pineapple in sight.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12399559/The-massive-fish-chip-PIZZA-thats-selling-like-hot-cakes-Country-pub-unveils-16-mega-dish-chef-reveals-invented-dish-twist-old-classic.html

I would eat that.

eek

Stuartinromford said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Carnyx said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Cicero said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Heathener said:

Sandpit said:

He needs to sack Braverman, and replace her with someone who actually will stop the boats.

Yes but as mentioned below by @El_Capitano it has to be combined with having actual humanity. Otherwise, quite apart from the moral vacuum, you lose both Red and Blue wall.

For example, I have a lifelong Conservative voting friend in Surrey who is utterly appalled by Braverman and has not stopped going on about Robert Jenrick callously painting over the mural in the children's asylum centre.

There are actually a vast swathe of decent people who traditionally vote Conservative. They are being turned off from doing so by the re-emergence of the Nasty Party.

Good morning

I am appalled that Braverman and Jenrick are still in post and Sunak needs to remove them both

He has the opportunity in his reshuffle due in a few weeks and after the barge PR disaster the excuse, but sadly I do not have the confidence he will grasp the nettle and do it

I think the point is that it is not just the swing voters that the Tories are losing, they are also losing their core voters too

As long as Sunak is PM he will not lose my vote, and I expect when an election campaign starts a good number will return but how many will depend on many factors including the cost of living and NHS which will top the list with the boats probably third

But he's responsible for the Home Office, and the boats, too. He selected Ms Braverman and Mr Jenrick.

I agree and he needs to sack Braverman and Jenrick

But he's not looking likely to, is he?

Whether that's out of fear of Suella and her fans, or because he approves of what they're doing, hardly matters.

Trouble is that The Boats may be fundamentally Unstoppable.

And that last bit is what makes the issue unsolvable

We are left with the same question of what are the factors that ensure people spend £1000s to get in a small boat to try and cross the channel.

Is it push lead (being in France is so bad you prefer to go to the UK) or is it equally pull lead (our black market allowing people to disappear, years of delays in assessments making things equally pointless),

We need to identify what the crucial factors are and fix them because the French coastline makes stopping the boats at the starting point is an impossible task..

TheScreamingEagles

Patients facing long waits for treatment in Scotland will be offered NHS or private care in England under provocative plans being put forward by the UK government.

Steve Barclay, the Conservative health minister at Westminster, has written to his counterparts in Scotland and Wales to highlight the longer waiting times in the devolved administrations than in England.

While NHS England has “virtually eliminated” waits of more than 18 months, Barclay says almost 100,000 patients in Scotland and Wales — controlled by the SNP and Labour respectively — are still waiting more than 77 weeks for outpatient, day-case or inpatient appointments.

The offer to treat long-waiting patients in England is part of a summer campaign by the Conservative UK government to highlight a difference in approach to NHS waiting times by the devolved governments.

With a general election expected within 18 months, it follows similar moves to focus attention on the divides between the SNP in Scotland and Labour in England and Wales over issues such as dealing with the “small boats” migrant crisis and attempts to tackle climate change while preserving North Sea oil industry jobs.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/scots-patients-offered-private-care-in-england-dbtzdqrvn

OnlyLivingBoy

Luckyguy1983 said:

Nigelb said:

On topic..

We risk being seen as the ‘nasty party’ again, warn senior Conservatives
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/aug/13/we-risk-being-seen-as-the-nasty-party-again-warn-senior-conservatives

Mayites trashing the party again and reviving the 'nasty party' tag - quelle surprise.

Trashing the party or pointing out that others are trashing the party?

Gallowgate

Stuartinromford said:

Meanwhile, Sunday Times so could be nonsense, but this would be awkward;

On Wednesday the Office for National Statistics is due to publish data for last month and is expected to confirm a sharp drop in inflation as measured by the consumer prices index (CPI). Estimates suggest the rate of inflation for July will fall from 7.9 per cent to 7 per cent.

However, The Sunday Times has seen internal government analysis suggesting that Treasury officials are braced for it to increase again this month.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/32a735c4-392b-11ee-b26c-71fc5438c507?shareToken=59620d280251c016880914f593ab3723

What is driving this? Fuel? I just paid 151 for unleaded…

Carnyx

TheScreamingEagles said:

Patients facing long waits for treatment in Scotland will be offered NHS or private care in England under provocative plans being put forward by the UK government.

Steve Barclay, the Conservative health minister at Westminster, has written to his counterparts in Scotland and Wales to highlight the longer waiting times in the devolved administrations than in England.

While NHS England has “virtually eliminated” waits of more than 18 months, Barclay says almost 100,000 patients in Scotland and Wales — controlled by the SNP and Labour respectively — are still waiting more than 77 weeks for outpatient, day-case or inpatient appointments.

The offer to treat long-waiting patients in England is part of a summer campaign by the Conservative UK government to highlight a difference in approach to NHS waiting times by the devolved governments.

With a general election expected within 18 months, it follows similar moves to focus attention on the divides between the SNP in Scotland and Labour in England and Wales over issues such as dealing with the “small boats” migrant crisis and attempts to tackle climate change while preserving North Sea oil industry jobs.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/scots-patients-offered-private-care-in-england-dbtzdqrvn

Intderesting attempt to work out where the real differences are (and new hubs just set up in Scotland):

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/23607689.scotland-england-behind-nhs-waiting-list-divide/

Big_G_NorthWales

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Nigelb said:

On topic..

We risk being seen as the ‘nasty party’ again, warn senior Conservatives
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/aug/13/we-risk-being-seen-as-the-nasty-party-again-warn-senior-conservatives

Mayites trashing the party again and reviving the 'nasty party' tag - quelle surprise.

Trashing the party or pointing out that others are trashing the party?

May is correct in objecting to the idea the UK should withdraw from the ECHR

OnlyLivingBoy

TheScreamingEagles said:

Patients facing long waits for treatment in Scotland will be offered NHS or private care in England under provocative plans being put forward by the UK government.

Steve Barclay, the Conservative health minister at Westminster, has written to his counterparts in Scotland and Wales to highlight the longer waiting times in the devolved administrations than in England.

While NHS England has “virtually eliminated” waits of more than 18 months, Barclay says almost 100,000 patients in Scotland and Wales — controlled by the SNP and Labour respectively — are still waiting more than 77 weeks for outpatient, day-case or inpatient appointments.

The offer to treat long-waiting patients in England is part of a summer campaign by the Conservative UK government to highlight a difference in approach to NHS waiting times by the devolved governments.

With a general election expected within 18 months, it follows similar moves to focus attention on the divides between the SNP in Scotland and Labour in England and Wales over issues such as dealing with the “small boats” migrant crisis and attempts to tackle climate change while preserving North Sea oil industry jobs.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/scots-patients-offered-private-care-in-england-dbtzdqrvn

If there's capacity for that in England why the hell aren't they using it to bring down waiting lists here? Why are these Tories always playing political games?

ydoethur

OnlyLivingBoy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Patients facing long waits for treatment in Scotland will be offered NHS or private care in England under provocative plans being put forward by the UK government.

Steve Barclay, the Conservative health minister at Westminster, has written to his counterparts in Scotland and Wales to highlight the longer waiting times in the devolved administrations than in England.

While NHS England has “virtually eliminated” waits of more than 18 months, Barclay says almost 100,000 patients in Scotland and Wales — controlled by the SNP and Labour respectively — are still waiting more than 77 weeks for outpatient, day-case or inpatient appointments.

The offer to treat long-waiting patients in England is part of a summer campaign by the Conservative UK government to highlight a difference in approach to NHS waiting times by the devolved governments.

With a general election expected within 18 months, it follows similar moves to focus attention on the divides between the SNP in Scotland and Labour in England and Wales over issues such as dealing with the “small boats” migrant crisis and attempts to tackle climate change while preserving North Sea oil industry jobs.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/scots-patients-offered-private-care-in-england-dbtzdqrvn

If there's capacity for that in England why the hell aren't they using it to bring down waiting lists here? Why are these Tories always playing political games?

For the same reason all other Tories always have, and indeed Labour and Liberal and other governments.

Because they're politicians.

DavidL

Stuartinromford said:

Meanwhile, Sunday Times so could be nonsense, but this would be awkward;

On Wednesday the Office for National Statistics is due to publish data for last month and is expected to confirm a sharp drop in inflation as measured by the consumer prices index (CPI). Estimates suggest the rate of inflation for July will fall from 7.9 per cent to 7 per cent.

However, The Sunday Times has seen internal government analysis suggesting that Treasury officials are braced for it to increase again this month.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/32a735c4-392b-11ee-b26c-71fc5438c507?shareToken=59620d280251c016880914f593ab3723

There are sharp increases in fuel from last July that will drop out of the index and should put strong downward pressure on the number but there is no doubt that wage increases in particular are now driving inflation at pretty much 7% and that will offset things, as will persistent food price increases. Locally, diesel has also gone up 4-5p a litre in the last month. My guess is that inflation will fall but once again prove stickier than the government would hope.

OnlyLivingBoy

Stuartinromford said:

Meanwhile, Sunday Times so could be nonsense, but this would be awkward;

On Wednesday the Office for National Statistics is due to publish data for last month and is expected to confirm a sharp drop in inflation as measured by the consumer prices index (CPI). Estimates suggest the rate of inflation for July will fall from 7.9 per cent to 7 per cent.

However, The Sunday Times has seen internal government analysis suggesting that Treasury officials are braced for it to increase again this month.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/32a735c4-392b-11ee-b26c-71fc5438c507?shareToken=59620d280251c016880914f593ab3723

With utility prices falling 17% in July it would take something extraordinary happening to prices elsewhere for inflation not to fall. Sounds like a clumsy attempt at expectations management to me.

Carnyx

TheScreamingEagles said:

Patients facing long waits for treatment in Scotland will be offered NHS or private care in England under provocative plans being put forward by the UK government.

Steve Barclay, the Conservative health minister at Westminster, has written to his counterparts in Scotland and Wales to highlight the longer waiting times in the devolved administrations than in England.

While NHS England has “virtually eliminated” waits of more than 18 months, Barclay says almost 100,000 patients in Scotland and Wales — controlled by the SNP and Labour respectively — are still waiting more than 77 weeks for outpatient, day-case or inpatient appointments.

The offer to treat long-waiting patients in England is part of a summer campaign by the Conservative UK government to highlight a difference in approach to NHS waiting times by the devolved governments.

With a general election expected within 18 months, it follows similar moves to focus attention on the divides between the SNP in Scotland and Labour in England and Wales over issues such as dealing with the “small boats” migrant crisis and attempts to tackle climate change while preserving North Sea oil industry jobs.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/scots-patients-offered-private-care-in-england-dbtzdqrvn

Also: stats not commensurable. This points out that Welsh stats for instance cover more than Englishones.

https://digitalanddata.blog.gov.wales/2022/11/21/chief-statisticians-update-comparing-nhs-performance-statistics-across-the-uk/

DavidL

TheScreamingEagles said:

Patients facing long waits for treatment in Scotland will be offered NHS or private care in England under provocative plans being put forward by the UK government.

Steve Barclay, the Conservative health minister at Westminster, has written to his counterparts in Scotland and Wales to highlight the longer waiting times in the devolved administrations than in England.

While NHS England has “virtually eliminated” waits of more than 18 months, Barclay says almost 100,000 patients in Scotland and Wales — controlled by the SNP and Labour respectively — are still waiting more than 77 weeks for outpatient, day-case or inpatient appointments.

The offer to treat long-waiting patients in England is part of a summer campaign by the Conservative UK government to highlight a difference in approach to NHS waiting times by the devolved governments.

With a general election expected within 18 months, it follows similar moves to focus attention on the divides between the SNP in Scotland and Labour in England and Wales over issues such as dealing with the “small boats” migrant crisis and attempts to tackle climate change while preserving North Sea oil industry jobs.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/scots-patients-offered-private-care-in-england-dbtzdqrvn

This government is much more interested in not giving the SNP administration free run than its predecessors. I very much welcome that.

DecrepiterJohnL

eek said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

OT Twitter X, click on Trending/Maddie, find a very nice young lady putting her cat out. Elon's done it again. Have I somehow ticked the "show me porn" option?

No Twitter has just removed the checks so its easier than ever for Porn to "slip" through the filters..

Trouble is, anyone innocently scrolling Twitter in a public place is now at risk of losing their job, their parliamentary seat and perhaps even their liberty if someone glances over their shoulder when a particularly sexy tractor pops up.

Mexicanpete

...

TheScreamingEagles said:

Patients facing long waits for treatment in Scotland will be offered NHS or private care in England under provocative plans being put forward by the UK government.

Steve Barclay, the Conservative health minister at Westminster, has written to his counterparts in Scotland and Wales to highlight the longer waiting times in the devolved administrations than in England.

While NHS England has “virtually eliminated” waits of more than 18 months, Barclay says almost 100,000 patients in Scotland and Wales — controlled by the SNP and Labour respectively — are still waiting more than 77 weeks for outpatient, day-case or inpatient appointments.

The offer to treat long-waiting patients in England is part of a summer campaign by the Conservative UK government to highlight a difference in approach to NHS waiting times by the devolved governments.

With a general election expected within 18 months, it follows similar moves to focus attention on the divides between the SNP in Scotland and Labour in England and Wales over issues such as dealing with the “small boats” migrant crisis and attempts to tackle climate change while preserving North Sea oil industry jobs.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/scots-patients-offered-private-care-in-england-dbtzdqrvn

Very clever politics by the impressive Barclay. Over 18 month waiting lists down. 1/5 Rishi pledges achieved.

Dura_Ace

Carnyx said:

Scott_xP said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I think I have made my rejection of Braverman quite clear and want Sunak to sack her

When he doesn't sack her you will still vote for him.

So she carries on.

Also, the RNLI is beginning to get flak all over again. Vide the DM comments.

Will be interesting to see what happens there; bear in mind that the UK is fairly unusual in not having a state maritime rescue ship service (cf. the US Coastguard), allowing of course for the contracted commercial helicopters and what the RN and RAF do on the side from their main missionsm ditto the UK Coastguard, Fishery Patrol, etc.

There is no more RN/RAF SAR except No. 84 Squadron in Cyprus. They couldn't afford to do it in the UK once the Sea Kings went.

TheScreamingEagles

OnlyLivingBoy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Patients facing long waits for treatment in Scotland will be offered NHS or private care in England under provocative plans being put forward by the UK government.

Steve Barclay, the Conservative health minister at Westminster, has written to his counterparts in Scotland and Wales to highlight the longer waiting times in the devolved administrations than in England.

While NHS England has “virtually eliminated” waits of more than 18 months, Barclay says almost 100,000 patients in Scotland and Wales — controlled by the SNP and Labour respectively — are still waiting more than 77 weeks for outpatient, day-case or inpatient appointments.

The offer to treat long-waiting patients in England is part of a summer campaign by the Conservative UK government to highlight a difference in approach to NHS waiting times by the devolved governments.

With a general election expected within 18 months, it follows similar moves to focus attention on the divides between the SNP in Scotland and Labour in England and Wales over issues such as dealing with the “small boats” migrant crisis and attempts to tackle climate change while preserving North Sea oil industry jobs.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/scots-patients-offered-private-care-in-england-dbtzdqrvn

If there's capacity for that in England why the hell aren't they using it to bring down waiting lists here? Why are these Tories always playing political games?

Why is the money of hard working English taxpayers like me being used to bail out Scotland once again?

It's like Ed Miliband won in 2015.

IanB2

Heathener said:

Good morning by the way.

That Braverman line from TSE, one of his best, reminds me of the rather cutting one about Morrissey: that he's the sort of person who would wake you up to tell you he's going to bed.



Have a nice day everyone xx

Nicked from somewhere, as I have heard it before, but most amusing…

Nigelb

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Nigelb said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Cicero said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Heathener said:

Sandpit said:

He needs to sack Braverman, and replace her with someone who actually will stop the boats.

Yes but as mentioned below by @El_Capitano it has to be combined with having actual humanity. Otherwise, quite apart from the moral vacuum, you lose both Red and Blue wall.

For example, I have a lifelong Conservative voting friend in Surrey who is utterly appalled by Braverman and has not stopped going on about Robert Jenrick callously painting over the mural in the children's asylum centre.

There are actually a vast swathe of decent people who traditionally vote Conservative. They are being turned off from doing so by the re-emergence of the Nasty Party.

Good morning

I am appalled that Braverman and Jenrick are still in post and Sunak needs to remove them both

He has the opportunity in his reshuffle due in a few weeks and after the barge PR disaster the excuse, but sadly I do not have the confidence he will grasp the nettle and do it

I think the point is that it is not just the swing voters that the Tories are losing, they are also losing their core voters too

As long as Sunak is PM he will not lose my vote...

Hey, Suella, Big_G says he'll back whatever you want to do.

I think I have made my rejection of Braverman quite clear and want Sunak to sack her

However, the next GE is 15 months away and a lot can change and Starmer is not Blair and I will not vote for labour

Indeed, and you’re a loyal Conservative.
But equally, it’s undeniable that as long as Sunak backs Braverman, you intend to do the same.

IanB2

Nigelb said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Nigelb said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Cicero said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Heathener said:

Sandpit said:

He needs to sack Braverman, and replace her with someone who actually will stop the boats.

Yes but as mentioned below by @El_Capitano it has to be combined with having actual humanity. Otherwise, quite apart from the moral vacuum, you lose both Red and Blue wall.

For example, I have a lifelong Conservative voting friend in Surrey who is utterly appalled by Braverman and has not stopped going on about Robert Jenrick callously painting over the mural in the children's asylum centre.

There are actually a vast swathe of decent people who traditionally vote Conservative. They are being turned off from doing so by the re-emergence of the Nasty Party.

Good morning

I am appalled that Braverman and Jenrick are still in post and Sunak needs to remove them both

He has the opportunity in his reshuffle due in a few weeks and after the barge PR disaster the excuse, but sadly I do not have the confidence he will grasp the nettle and do it

I think the point is that it is not just the swing voters that the Tories are losing, they are also losing their core voters too

As long as Sunak is PM he will not lose my vote...

Hey, Suella, Big_G says he'll back whatever you want to do.

I think I have made my rejection of Braverman quite clear and want Sunak to sack her

However, the next GE is 15 months away and a lot can change and Starmer is not Blair and I will not vote for labour

Indeed, and you’re a loyal Conservative.
But equally, it’s undeniable that as long as Sunak backs Braverman, you intend to do the same.

And there must surely be a limit to the number of leading Tories that our Mr G insists should resign, before he reaches the unavoidable conclusion that it’s not just a few bad apples?