The election betting numbers barely moved over the past month – politicalbetting.com

I come to these betting numbers once again to underline the fact the perceptions of the general election outcome remain largely unchanged. The money continues to go on a LAB majority.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
I hope.
That would be good for the lols, but perhaps not the most stable administration.
PP have a Labour minority at 7/2 - I think it extremely unlikely Davey will go into any kind of coalition with Starmer after the next GE so if Labour ends up with 290-320 seats that looks a reasonable bet.
My personal view remains the polls show a large Labour majority but of course there's time to go and not a single vote has been cast. Starmer needs, I think, to be a little less cautious but he knows he needs the votes of disillusioned ex-Conservatives (he has between 15-20% of the 2019 Conservative vote already) or at worst he needs them to stay at home.
I'm sure he won't be bothered if he wins big on a large turnout or wins big on a smaller turnout. Legitimacy isn't about numbers of votes - it's about bums on benches.
However if LAB get 300 - 320 then I think Davey and LD would be very happy to provide confidence and supply NOT coalition. So looks like Keir becomes PM after all.
https://www.vice.com/en/article/xgwa7z/twitter-elon-musk-dom-lucre-child-sexual-abuse
Tries various anagrams of "inch"
Complete saying "and they'll take a mile"
Realise that "mile" is an anagram of "lime"
Internally verbalise saying "...and they'll take a lime"
Confirm that joke matches intent of author.
Laugh dutifully.
"Ho, Ho, Ho."
The range of outcomes giving NOM is very large. A Lab majority requires a very specific sort of future performance from Lab, Con and events between now and the election.
The marquees, which have been procured by the Home Office in the past few days, will start to be erected over the coming weeks as part of contingency plans to deal with an expected surge of small boat arrivals.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/channel-migrant-marquees-summer-arrivals-uk-2023-krbcxv9fg
Lesley Manville on Who Do You Think You Are on BBC1. We mentioned her a few weeks ago wrt the film Phantom Thread starring Daniel Day-Lewis.
https://nitter.net/AdamBienkov/status/1684498168753393665#m
The other side is the Conservatives have very few friends in the event of a Hung Parliament - perhaps just the DUP with its 8 seats currently.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats-last-7-days
Of course made worse now by her arrival. Only an alleged daughter of migrants could get away with what she does , put in position because the gullible public might think how can a migrants daughter show zero humanity towards others who were in the same boat !
Anyone who dreams of seeing refugees shipped off to Rwanda , who would positively enjoy seeing that human misery is beneath contempt .
Ludlow's largest town would be Ludlow, at about the same size.
Wales of course has many constituencies with almost no large towns in them. Arfon, Brecon and Radnor, Ceredigion, Preseli Pembrokeshire, Ynys Môn have between them one settlement with a five figure population - Aberystwyth, which is 15,000 excluding students.
Indeed the sort of marriage that @Cyclefree described of her neighbour may well be very traditional in establishing clear property rights.
One branch was full of outrageous scandal and breaking of conventions.
I wasn't making a moral point. Just saying that I quite like that order - and couples really getting to know each other and have a life together before children come along.
Anyway off to bed.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jul/27/rishi-sunak-under-pressure-block-ex-ukip-david-campbell-bannerman-potential-tory-candidacy
Who could be next? Farage.
Another reason not to vote Conservative, or will Rishi do the right thing?
He really is a pathetic spineless waste of space .
Would be vulnerable on a 17% swing to Labour so not out of the question. It's the 229th most marginal Conservative seat.
He was briefly UKIP, being UKIP candidate for North Cornwall in 2005 but was a Conservative MEP again under Cameron and has been a Tory since
https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/news-feature/behind-the-housing-crisis-for-asylum-seekers-in-france
The question is whether his new wizard wheeze for revenue growth will offset the advertisers appalled that their customers' ads is on the same site as such ads, or worse, appear alongside them.
Consider places we regard as having fairly low population density today, like Wales, but even with the swathes of low populated areas the bits where people live do still support a population something like 4x what it was just 200 years ago. What was England like when the second biggest city had only 10,000 people?
Then think about places like Egypt which support more than 10x the population they did 200 years ago, or a place like Mongolia, which has the lowest population density of any country yet is apparently even emptier than you'd think, since half the population live in the capital city.
Under my proposals such people would forfeit their right to sit as Lords by their lack of work ethic - which is acceptable, unlike in the Commons, since they cannot be judged by an electorate.
Sounds rough on the unsuccessful traitors.
Abortion, infanticide and abandoning of foundling all reasonably common too.
Whether he was actually a traditional Tory or a National Liberal I leave to others to consider.
A cull of about half or more of the Lords would be very worthwhile.
Urban slums for me all the way, none of this return to nature stuff. Unless it's glamping.
Glazing is just wrong. Either camp properly or stay in a hotel.
Visited Heir Island last weekend for lunch at the cottage - very highly recommended - and there's a sign on the island stating that the permanent population is now 20, compared to over 200 at the start of the 20th century, when a large population was supported by fishing (mainly lobster boats).
I imagine there are a lot of places even in Britain which would have a similar story, certainly in the Highlands of Scotland where large rural populations were cleared to make way for sheep, and probably more rural areas then you might imagine when you factor in the scale of urbanisation that has occurred since the start of the Industrial Revolution.
So, yes, towns and cities would have been a lot, lot smaller, but rural areas might often have been more densely populated than they are today.
Kids, don't do drugs.
At least, not those ones,
Also, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ex_xUbvOeH0
RFK Jr: “Lockdowns created a new US billionaire per day… In 500 days we moved $4 trillion to the super-rich.” Hannity: “In retrospect, in the early days we didn’t know what we were dealing with. Let’s be fair.” RFK Jr: “I’m not going to be fair.”
https://twitter.com/michaelpsenger/status/1684249556652036096?s=20
We don’t have free market capitalism in this country. What we have is socialism for the super rich, and brutal capitalism for the poor. Thanks
@seanhannity
and
@FoxNews
for the great discussion.
https://twitter.com/RobertKennedyJr/status/1684052425056079876?s=20
Your man on the spot in a 2 man tent at Belladrum
Next year we have a dinner celebrating 100 years since he was the area's MP (back then it included pre new town Harlow and rural areas around it, as well as Epping Forest and Chingford, Woodford and Wanstead). Nicholas Soames and Randolph Churchill due to attend
No one in their right mind would have injected the experimental mRNA shots (with zero long-term safety data) into their body if they were fully informed about Ivermectin, HCQ, Zinc & Vitamin D.
https://twitter.com/CKellyUAP/status/1684101316971487233?s=20
One thing often underestimated is the effect of barbed wire, before which keeping walls and hedges stock proof was an endless job
Hi, Michael.
Noticing the health of many people now in steep decline. Sad.
If RFK leads on this he could win the election and rein in big pharma.
https://twitter.com/CKellyUAP/status/1684218152429780996?s=20
https://twitter.com/chrislittlewoo8/status/1684303694857113607?s=20
https://twitter.com/joiedevivre789/status/1683933104342462465?s=20
Myocarditis is 10 times as common after covid infection than the vaccine.
Anti-vaxxing is why so many Russians and MAGA Republicans died needlessly.
(Or clamping as autocorrect would have it.)
It's very interesting, and she finds it very satisfying. But my goodness is it a labour intensive way to separate land.
This is what I find most baffling about the olden days. So many things simply took days and days and days of labour. How did people find the time?
RFK Jr: ‘Plot for Cashless Society Is About Turning Humans Into Slaves’ CBDC's are about giving the government and those who control the governments namely the #WEF2030Agenda with German Chairman Klaus Schwab pulling the strings of his puppets in our governments total control over us. #GlobalResistance #Outlaws
https://twitter.com/JimFergusonUK/status/1684120344016171009?s=20