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Speculation is starting to mount on the election date – politicalbetting.com
Speculation is starting to mount on the election date – politicalbetting.com
The last possible time for the general election to be held is mid-January 2025 but few pundits believe Sunak will wait that long. The consensus at the moment is that he’ll wait until next year’s party conference and call the election for late October or early November.
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People already see the government as being dragged out, due to how tired it feels, I don't buy that going in the spring gets them anything positive, nor that the polls will be in a comforting place to encourage that choice.
But I suppose objections to that is ok to ignore.
Dunno if that theory has anything in it, though.
(The other benefit of spring 2024, which does make sense, is that it preempts what would otherwise be a horrible set of local elections in May 2024- that bit of the cycle last happened when Boris really was King of the World, so the Conservatives will do badly even if they do quite well.)
Guess Mike is due a holiday then?
Mid-term new PMs should call an election as soon as they take office.
But if you have 100% certainty of defeat now versus 99% probability of defeat if you hang on a bit longer, hanging on is rational.
So it's more that impending defeat leads to a government taking the full five year term.
https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/premier-league-star-chris-bart-williams-dies-aged-49-sheffield-wednesday/
The Truss agenda was quite different to the Johnson one, and whether you think she was batshit or not, her plans - big plans - were not plans that the public endorsed at the GE.
2h
Earl Russell made his maiden speech in the Lords today, following his triumph over Earl Lloyd George in the most recent hereditary by-election. A belated victory for the Whigs over the Radicals.
https://twitter.com/JAHeale/status/1683569118409023496?s=20
The boats. The boats. Plus some anti-woke to make the Labour leadership defend on a point they really don't want to defend on. There's probably a cricketing analogy.
Interesting that the last time a British government lost three seats in a single day in by-elections was in 1968. Nineteen freaking sixty-eight! A swing to the right! (And guess what issue was big.) In June of the same year, and even more surprisingly for many who don't already know it, the right wing won a parliamentary election in France.
Things move ever faster. Labour need to cause a positive (for them) surprise. Which is a tall order. They can't win on "time for a change". Voters are too scared for that.
Bouquet then? Or ricochet?
Microsoft owns the trademark for X. This is just too good.
https://twitter.com/keithedwards/status/1683586586007437312
It still won't make me vote Labour personally. I see nothing admirable about them other than a dull reliability. But I think enough people will to get them a majority.
It appears Instagram and FB owner Meta holds the trademark for "X" as it relates to "online social networking services... social networking services in the fields of entertainment, gaming and application development..."
https://twitter.com/alexweprin/status/1683568173809844229
Sunak can't afford inflation to be heading upwards again at the time of the GE. So I think he's got to be planning to go to the country by July 2024 at the latest.
If one choice is "utterly bankrupt in terms of ideas and morals" does it not behove you to choose the other?
Trusting others to make the right choice seems sub optimal.
Not a criticism of you, but perhaps a different starting point?
There's a pic of the trademark grant on the tweet I linked to.
(Ducks).
I think Spring 2024 or Oct 2024. Spring 2024 after a 'hopeful' budget will be seen as the more positive, decisive approach.
Is it any better to have a vaguely competent doing stuff you fundamentally disagree with? I don't think so. My view is a plague on both their houses.
For me I think I would feel compelled to make a distinction between options, even if it was marginal, since it's not going to be exactly equally bad. Of course, if we're lucky we get entirely no hoper options which can give us an out from the choice.
https://www.google.com/search?tbm=bks&q=bouqueted
"bouqueted wines", "delightfully bouqueted", "lemon will be bouqueted"
But even if we say it isn't a verb, it could still conceivably be one and in that case when forming the past tense or verbal adjective we wouldn't double the t.
I totally agree with @MikeSmithson's suggestion here. I think the Conservatives should go for it in a bullish kind of way, all guns blazing in May or June, and hope they can pull off something remarkable.
However, Sunak seems to be something of a ditherer so I doubt that they will. The fact that the speculation around Spring is out then means he will be seen to be waiting too long - doing a Brown / Major.
The real problem is not Labour. There's no great love for Labour: they are polling 5-10% below Tony Blair in 1996/7.
It's that the Conservatives have trashed their brand.
If you look down the line of tory polling it is absolutely dire. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
I've suggested before that I think in voting, hatred and anger are stronger motivators than love. The Labour - LibDem pincers together with the fall of the SNP mean that I am confident of a Labour majority.
But the tories have to hope they can do nationally what they did in Uxbridge. It could be a very nasty campaign.
They need all the help they can get. People being downbeat at the onset of winter and dark nights isn't going to help.
As I've mentioned, December 2019 was a one-off 'Get Brexit Done' election.
Usually the rule goes "words ending in single vowel and single consonant that either have only one syllable or the last syllable is stressed". You could deal with things like "quizzed" or "acquitted" by saying that the u following a q is treated as part of the consonant q (or a rule about the length of the vowel sound might work better).
You might want to also deal with words ending in x, w (don't double) and, in British English, some words ending in l (travelled, modelled etc).
Anyway there are always going to be exceptions. For example, formatted, or kidnapped.
Not to be alarmist but…this is what’s called a six-sigma* event, now unfolding in Antarctica.
Otherwise known as a once-in-7.5-million-year event.
Hang onto your hats.
https://twitter.com/think_or_swim/status/1683556231481286656
One of the climate feedback loops just went off the chart.
Antarctic sea ice extent in southern hemisphere summers is highly variable, but it always recovers in the winter. Thus year it hasn't.
(*six sigma would be once in a billion years - actually five sigma.)
Is he the most politically unlucky of them all?
I expect it from the Tories. But from Labour? Starmer truly is frit. We could drive our economy investing in "green crap" as America is doing. But our polity has been poisoned by "who will pay for it" questions, as opposed to "how much will we benefit from it".
The reason why this country is so absurdly expensive for shitty services is because we've been conditioned to believe that we can't afford stuff, because stuff is a cost and not an investment. Which is ow we spend record amounts on stuff despite seeing the front-line execution of said stuff being awful.
The money is being stolen by the spiv class. They own the Tories, and Labour seem petrified of them as well.
The top ten polluters account for 67% of the carbon produced globally. China India Iran and Indonesia are all developing economies and will shove out more carbon in the next decade than the UK. The UK isnt even a top 10 polluter but number 17 and moving down the rankings.
Net zero is not an appropriate priority for us. We should be focussing policies of bio diversity, reducing plastics and liveability in a changed climate.
With a party that's a great deal worse.
The last possible moment.
Kind of anyway. Nobody else is doing anything, why should we?
Unless everyone starts to act, no one will.
Personally, I think the UK government - under Thatcher, Major, Blair, Brown, Cameron, etc - has done a pretty good job on CO2 emissions and global warming.
We've substantially decarbonised our economy, reduced our dependence on imported fuel, and done this without (mostly) negatively impacting living standards.
Hence if and when we start approaching six then we should worry but we don't seem to be there quite yet.
He is genuinely crap at politics and I suspect has quite a lacklustre team around him. He needs someone to bop him on the head hourly and shout ‘economy and cost of living’ in his ear.
thats why we burn all that lignite in our coal fired power stations and have 7 of Europes top ten polluters on our land
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47783992
Weve picked up our litter it would be nice if you Germans could do the same given you produce twice as much carbon as we do.
Deutschland - Spitzenverschmutzer