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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A 2014 by-election in Lansley’s Cambs South would be a bat

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  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Lennon said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Kevin Pietersen's international career was ended so captain Alastair Cook could create a culture where players 'trust each other', the England and Wales Cricket Board has said."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/cricket/26106902

    Trust in the sense of 'if you disagree with me, you can leave' by the sound of it. Hmm
    I don't think its a good idea getting rid of KP - He is one of our best batsmen still and a captain should be able to deal with challenging/mercurial characters in the dressing room.

    You can see it in the way Cook lets Jimmy and Stuart set their fields so they don't go for too many runs rather than increasing the wicket taking probability - he's a weak captain I feel who has been saved by decent results till the tour down under.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,755
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Fascinating BBC / Open University programme about world population growth: http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b03h8r1j/This_World_Dont_Panic_The_Truth_About_Population/

    Skip ahead to the 8:30 mark to see some amazing stats about fertility ratios. (And watch for at least 5 minutes!)

    I think that was first shown in December, really worth watching.
    Although I think we should seriously consider the possibility that it's all made up by the BBC to push a pro-EU agenda.

    (Not that the EU is mentioned once. Which just goes to show how cunning and subtle these BBC media-types are.)
    Looking at the population projections for Europe there isn't going to be much of an EU. Africa was much more interesting, as was the concentration of humanity in East and South East Asia.
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited February 2014
    ''As might not imposing arbitrary rules on spending cuts.''
    Labour's crocodile tears for the people of Somerset will I fear be wasted.
    Cuts?
    The Environment Agency is far larger and better staffed than any comparable Western environment agency.
    It's not that much smaller than the US equivalent.
    Astonishing facts are starting to emerge about EA - for example that the agency funds 'political education'.

    Some board members, a laundry list of labour and tory has beens, work six day a month.

  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,001

    rcs1000 said:

    Fascinating BBC / Open University programme about world population growth: http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b03h8r1j/This_World_Dont_Panic_The_Truth_About_Population/

    Skip ahead to the 8:30 mark to see some amazing stats about fertility ratios. (And watch for at least 5 minutes!)

    I think that was first shown in December, really worth watching.
    I loved this line:

    "In the past, people didn't live in harmony with nature. They died in harmony in nature."
  • Options
    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322



    More likely the goal here isn't so much to do something as to look like something is being done, so the government will set a bunch of hurdles knowing perfectly well that they'll mostly serve to annoy genuine students, but not to annoy people trying to game the system who will be able to find a way to game it anyway.

    There are plenty of organisations that do academic tests all around the world, and they need not be that expensive. Certainly they would be fairly cheap compared to the cost of a university degree in the UK. It is perfectly achievable: certainly the basics of making sure the the examiner doesn't read out the answers to the questions or in making sure there's not two people for every candidate in the test room. I agree with you that the government is more concerned with looking like they're doing something than actually doing something, but the right solution is to actually do this properly.
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    rcs1000 said:

    Japanese consumer confidence also weakened unexpectedly, falling to 40.5. Despite massive money printing, Abenomics seems to be stalling.

    Consumption tax going up by 3% and possibly more later, which will tend to dampen demand. The government's bright idea of doing that, but simultaneously offsetting it by spending extra money on construction projects run by its donors, doesn't exactly inspire confidence.
    Putting up consumption tax may now be Abenomics, but it isn't Keynesian.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    TGOHF said:

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/douglascarswellmp/100258653/quango-britain-is-flooded-by-policy-failure/

    "Some have suggested that Lord Smith should resign. Replacing leftie Labour placement with Tory placemen will not solve the problem. Passing responsibility back to local government, and making government agencies properly accountable to Parliament, just might."

    As might not imposing arbitrary rules on spending cuts.

    More local decision making and increased Parliamentary scrutiny are definitely good ideas. What that may mean for people in areas susceptible to flooding, of course, is much higher local taxes.

    In the case of Somerset, local taxpayers are already paying the money to local drainage boards, who pass the money to the EA, who then don't do the work.

    http://www.burnham-on-sea.com/news/2014/floods-tessa-munt-24-01-14.php


  • Options
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    As someone who has had the slightly disinterested perspective on the floods here I think is what the public will note:

    I reckon marks out of 10:

    Prince Charles 8/10
    Chris Smith (& Labour) 4/10
    Gov't 3/10
    Pickles 0/10.

    I think you are over-rating Smith (ignorant of EA policy on flooding and refusal to apologise) and under-rating Pickles (apologised unreservedly)

    Maybe, but its marginal. You could make a case for giving them both 2 out of 10 or less, certainly.
    Yes - but it's Smith's job, Pickles is standing in for a hospitalised colleague.

    I think the bigger issue is no one is "taking responsibility" - listening to Smith this morning the EA sounds like a "coordinating facilitator" working with local councils "and other stakeholders" - to deliver "optimum outcomes" - which may well be a design flaw, and not something you can lay at the door of the current incumbents. Everyone is responsible' so "no one is responsible" - sounds a bit like banking regulation....
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,001

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Fascinating BBC / Open University programme about world population growth: http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b03h8r1j/This_World_Dont_Panic_The_Truth_About_Population/

    Skip ahead to the 8:30 mark to see some amazing stats about fertility ratios. (And watch for at least 5 minutes!)

    I think that was first shown in December, really worth watching.
    Although I think we should seriously consider the possibility that it's all made up by the BBC to push a pro-EU agenda.

    (Not that the EU is mentioned once. Which just goes to show how cunning and subtle these BBC media-types are.)
    Looking at the population projections for Europe there isn't going to be much of an EU. Africa was much more interesting, as was the concentration of humanity in East and South East Asia.
    Absolutely: it's astonishing how birthrates have collapsed, particularly in Eastern Europe. And also China, of course.

    Bangladesh could be very interesting from an investment perspective...
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    PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    Can anyone explain the interrelationship between the government and the EA? How much are the EA allowed to get on with making their own decisions at a strategic or local level according to the rules and money passed down, or do the government intervene on a routine basis?

    AAIU they have strategic decision making powers based on statutory priorities, but not full budgetary powers (as in they don't just have a national pot to spend at will). I'm not sure how much this differs from a Whitehall department these days though, given the micromanaging approach that the Treasury has increasingly wielded for the last 20 years.

    As with any other agency, government intervenes on a strictly headline-driven basis.
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/minister-launches-radical-education-plan-6688508

    Labour desperately trying to cover their exposed education flank.
  • Options
    taffys said:

    As might not imposing arbitrary rules on spending cuts.


    Labour's crocodile tears for the people of Somerset will I fear be wasted.

    Cuts?

    The Environment Agency is far larger and better staffed than any comparable Western environment agency.

    It's not that much smaller than the US equivalent.

    Astonishing facts are starting to emerge about EA - for example that the agency funds 'political education'.

    Some board members, a laundry list of labour and tory has beens, work six day a month.

    I am not that interested in Labour's response, which was bound to be to seek to gain some political advantage or to at least make the government look as crap as possible - and if the situation had been reversed then the Tories would certainly have done exactly the same to Labour. That's politics.

    However, arbitrary spending rules which put a cap of £400,000 on dredging in Somerset by the EA have clearly turned out to be ridiculous - as the government has now recognised by suspending them. When you cut without thinking, this kind of thing happens.

  • Options
    LennonLennon Posts: 1,733
    Pulpstar said:

    Lennon said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Kevin Pietersen's international career was ended so captain Alastair Cook could create a culture where players 'trust each other', the England and Wales Cricket Board has said."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/cricket/26106902

    Trust in the sense of 'if you disagree with me, you can leave' by the sound of it. Hmm
    I don't think its a good idea getting rid of KP - He is one of our best batsmen still and a captain should be able to deal with challenging/mercurial characters in the dressing room.

    You can see it in the way Cook lets Jimmy and Stuart set their fields so they don't go for too many runs rather than increasing the wicket taking probability - he's a weak captain I feel who has been saved by decent results till the tour down under.
    Quite Agree. As a Surrey fan I'm ecstatic (can you imagine KP taking Div2 Championship bowling apart - even if only occasionally! - to say nothing of Domestic T20 potential). On the other hand as an England fan I'm despondent - it shows a total weakness of Cook and the management team, as well as leading to the view that it's not how good you are, it's how much you 'fit in' - which doesn't inspire younger players to perform, but to say the right things.
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    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. Eagles, cheers for those tips.

    Mr. Socrates, depends what definition of maximum you're using. Records don't go back very far into Earth's 4bn year history. The Earth has been dramatically hotter and cooler than it is today.

    Mr. T's piece for the Telegraph fairly recently plucking quotes from history (both recent and distant) about how certain weather events were the 'worst that ever happened' were strikingly similar in tone, which suggests we do, as a species, have a certain apocalyptic view of particularly bad weather.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    edited February 2014
    I reckon the man for the EA job should be:

    Drumroll

    *******************

    John Reid.

    *******************

    Outflank Miliband with a head cracking SLAB arch-Blairite appointment.

    And clearly the EA is "Not fit for purpose".
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,755
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Fascinating BBC / Open University programme about world population growth: http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b03h8r1j/This_World_Dont_Panic_The_Truth_About_Population/

    Skip ahead to the 8:30 mark to see some amazing stats about fertility ratios. (And watch for at least 5 minutes!)

    I think that was first shown in December, really worth watching.
    Although I think we should seriously consider the possibility that it's all made up by the BBC to push a pro-EU agenda.

    (Not that the EU is mentioned once. Which just goes to show how cunning and subtle these BBC media-types are.)
    Looking at the population projections for Europe there isn't going to be much of an EU. Africa was much more interesting, as was the concentration of humanity in East and South East Asia.
    Absolutely: it's astonishing how birthrates have collapsed, particularly in Eastern Europe. And also China, of course.

    Bangladesh could be very interesting from an investment perspective...
    Only if you're selling swimwear, I thought the country was scheduled for closure due to rising sea levels. Maybe they could twin with Somerset.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,010
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    As someone who has had the slightly disinterested perspective on the floods here I think is what the public will note:

    I reckon marks out of 10:

    Prince Charles 8/10
    Chris Smith (& Labour) 4/10
    Gov't 3/10
    Pickles 0/10.

    I think you are over-rating Smith (ignorant of EA policy on flooding and refusal to apologise) and under-rating Pickles (apologised unreservedly)

    Maybe, but its marginal. You could make a case for giving them both 2 out of 10 or less, certainly.
    What should do for Smith are his cack-handed town-versus-country comments.
  • Options
    AndyJS said:

    "Kevin Pietersen's international career was ended so captain Alastair Cook could create a culture where players 'trust each other', the England and Wales Cricket Board has said."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/cricket/26106902

    Pathetic
  • Options
    Polruan said:

    @Polruan - at some stage there is no point in continuing. Some people will want to believe that what is happening is all a conspiracy led by the BBC and the EU, and there is literally nothing you can say and no evidence that you can present that will change their minds. And, who knows, they could be right. Most people would believe it unlikely, but then most people once though the earth was flat. It is possible that a secret cabal of international bankstas (perhaps of a certain religious persuasion), Euro-fanatics and BBC executives are running the country, After all, can you prove that they are not?

    Oh, but I think they are. I'm just not convinced they have a biodiversity agenda...

    But they have not thought it through - by flooding indigenous white English people out of the countryside they will drive them into the cities, where they will buy property and displace the brown people the bankstas, the BBC and the EU want to be there. I guess the next step is to deny the indigenous English property rights. But could they do that and get away with it? Blimey, we could be nearing the end game here.

  • Options
    Socrates said:


    There are plenty of organisations that do academic tests all around the world, and they need not be that expensive.

    ETS are the market leader, I have a pretty good idea what their security is like. IELTS will be similar. Who are you thinking of?
    Socrates said:


    Certainly they would be fairly cheap compared to the cost of a university degree in the UK. It is perfectly achievable: certainly the basics of making sure the the examiner doesn't read out the answers to the questions or in making sure there's not two people for every candidate in the test room

    No, that doesn't solve the problem. If you want to use English tests as immigration controls you need to close the particular security hole you mentioned, but also any other hole which is cheaper to exploit than the value of exploiting it to the attacker.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,930
    Lennon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lennon said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Kevin Pietersen's international career was ended so captain Alastair Cook could create a culture where players 'trust each other', the England and Wales Cricket Board has said."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/cricket/26106902

    Trust in the sense of 'if you disagree with me, you can leave' by the sound of it. Hmm
    I don't think its a good idea getting rid of KP - He is one of our best batsmen still and a captain should be able to deal with challenging/mercurial characters in the dressing room.

    You can see it in the way Cook lets Jimmy and Stuart set their fields so they don't go for too many runs rather than increasing the wicket taking probability - he's a weak captain I feel who has been saved by decent results till the tour down under.
    Quite Agree. As a Surrey fan I'm ecstatic (can you imagine KP taking Div2 Championship bowling apart - even if only occasionally! - to say nothing of Domestic T20 potential). On the other hand as an England fan I'm despondent - it shows a total weakness of Cook and the management team, as well as leading to the view that it's not how good you are, it's how much you 'fit in' - which doesn't inspire younger players to perform, but to say the right things.
    He should never have been let back in after texting his South African mates negative stuff about his captain in 2012
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,001

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Fascinating BBC / Open University programme about world population growth: http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b03h8r1j/This_World_Dont_Panic_The_Truth_About_Population/

    Skip ahead to the 8:30 mark to see some amazing stats about fertility ratios. (And watch for at least 5 minutes!)

    I think that was first shown in December, really worth watching.
    Although I think we should seriously consider the possibility that it's all made up by the BBC to push a pro-EU agenda.

    (Not that the EU is mentioned once. Which just goes to show how cunning and subtle these BBC media-types are.)
    Looking at the population projections for Europe there isn't going to be much of an EU. Africa was much more interesting, as was the concentration of humanity in East and South East Asia.
    Absolutely: it's astonishing how birthrates have collapsed, particularly in Eastern Europe. And also China, of course.

    Bangladesh could be very interesting from an investment perspective...
    Only if you're selling swimwear, I thought the country was scheduled for closure due to rising sea levels. Maybe they could twin with Somerset.
    Well, only if global warming continues to be true.

    And you could always hedge your exposure by buying a house in Hampstead...
  • Options
    taffys said:

    http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/minister-launches-radical-education-plan-6688508

    Labour desperately trying to cover their exposed education flank.

    Based on the London Challenge.

    London Challenge has continued to improve outcomes for pupils in London’s primary and secondary schools at a faster rate than nationally. London’s secondary schools continue to perform better than those in the rest of England.

    http://www.ofsted.gov.uk/resources/london-challenge
  • Options
    PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    Polruan said:

    @Polruan - at some stage there is no point in continuing. Some people will want to believe that what is happening is all a conspiracy led by the BBC and the EU, and there is literally nothing you can say and no evidence that you can present that will change their minds. And, who knows, they could be right. Most people would believe it unlikely, but then most people once though the earth was flat. It is possible that a secret cabal of international bankstas (perhaps of a certain religious persuasion), Euro-fanatics and BBC executives are running the country, After all, can you prove that they are not?

    Oh, but I think they are. I'm just not convinced they have a biodiversity agenda...

    But they have not thought it through - by flooding indigenous white English people out of the countryside they will drive them into the cities, where they will buy property and displace the brown people the bankstas, the BBC and the EU want to be there. I guess the next step is to deny the indigenous English property rights. But could they do that and get away with it? Blimey, we could be nearing the end game here.

    I think I see what you're missing here. The idea is to use the flooding to justify massive levels of government spending on the flooded areas. This will in turn attract millions of EU migrants who naturally go wherever the public spending takes place in order to exploit the UK government. At a stroke, the biodiversity agenda will achieve a huge multi-cultural state-dependent client vote in previously white rural areas. Oh, and because BBC.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,755
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Fascinating BBC / Open University programme about world population growth: http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b03h8r1j/This_World_Dont_Panic_The_Truth_About_Population/

    Skip ahead to the 8:30 mark to see some amazing stats about fertility ratios. (And watch for at least 5 minutes!)

    I think that was first shown in December, really worth watching.
    Although I think we should seriously consider the possibility that it's all made up by the BBC to push a pro-EU agenda.

    (Not that the EU is mentioned once. Which just goes to show how cunning and subtle these BBC media-types are.)
    Looking at the population projections for Europe there isn't going to be much of an EU. Africa was much more interesting, as was the concentration of humanity in East and South East Asia.
    Absolutely: it's astonishing how birthrates have collapsed, particularly in Eastern Europe. And also China, of course.

    Bangladesh could be very interesting from an investment perspective...
    Only if you're selling swimwear, I thought the country was scheduled for closure due to rising sea levels. Maybe they could twin with Somerset.
    Well, only if global warming continues to be true.

    And you could always hedge your exposure by buying a house in Hampstead...
    No thanks, looking at maps of what happens when all the ice melts I'm currently sitting on a prime beach side property with excellent sea views. I just wish the climate would get on with it.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    rcs1000 said:

    Fascinating BBC / Open University programme about world population growth: http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b03h8r1j/This_World_Dont_Panic_The_Truth_About_Population/

    Skip ahead to the 8:30 mark to see some amazing stats about fertility ratios. (And watch for at least 5 minutes!)

    Sounds interesting. I'm guessing this might feature the Swedish professor bloke, Hans something IIRC.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,001
    Polruan said:

    Polruan said:

    @Polruan - at some stage there is no point in continuing. Some people will want to believe that what is happening is all a conspiracy led by the BBC and the EU, and there is literally nothing you can say and no evidence that you can present that will change their minds. And, who knows, they could be right. Most people would believe it unlikely, but then most people once though the earth was flat. It is possible that a secret cabal of international bankstas (perhaps of a certain religious persuasion), Euro-fanatics and BBC executives are running the country, After all, can you prove that they are not?

    Oh, but I think they are. I'm just not convinced they have a biodiversity agenda...

    But they have not thought it through - by flooding indigenous white English people out of the countryside they will drive them into the cities, where they will buy property and displace the brown people the bankstas, the BBC and the EU want to be there. I guess the next step is to deny the indigenous English property rights. But could they do that and get away with it? Blimey, we could be nearing the end game here.

    I think I see what you're missing here. The idea is to use the flooding to justify massive levels of government spending on the flooded areas. This will in turn attract millions of EU migrants who naturally go wherever the public spending takes place in order to exploit the UK government. At a stroke, the biodiversity agenda will achieve a huge multi-cultural state-dependent client vote in previously white rural areas. Oh, and because BBC.
    Please could you make sure you use the <<joke>> tag to make sure that MrJones realises that you're not being serious.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,010
    Polruan said:

    Can anyone explain the interrelationship between the government and the EA? How much are the EA allowed to get on with making their own decisions at a strategic or local level according to the rules and money passed down, or do the government intervene on a routine basis?

    AAIU they have strategic decision making powers based on statutory priorities, but not full budgetary powers (as in they don't just have a national pot to spend at will). I'm not sure how much this differs from a Whitehall department these days though, given the micromanaging approach that the Treasury has increasingly wielded for the last 20 years.

    As with any other agency, government intervenes on a strictly headline-driven basis.
    Thanks.
  • Options
    One for our engineers and train enthusiasts.

    Any value in this

    William Hill ‏@sharpeangle 7m

    South West Train Line at Dawlish to be re-opened by end of March 2014: 4/7 No, 5/4 Yes.
  • Options

    TGOHF said:

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/douglascarswellmp/100258653/quango-britain-is-flooded-by-policy-failure/

    "Some have suggested that Lord Smith should resign. Replacing leftie Labour placement with Tory placemen will not solve the problem. Passing responsibility back to local government, and making government agencies properly accountable to Parliament, just might."

    As might not imposing arbitrary rules on spending cuts.

    More local decision making and increased Parliamentary scrutiny are definitely good ideas. What that may mean for people in areas susceptible to flooding, of course, is much higher local taxes.

    In the case of Somerset, local taxpayers are already paying the money to local drainage boards, who pass the money to the EA, who then don't do the work.

    http://www.burnham-on-sea.com/news/2014/floods-tessa-munt-24-01-14.php


    That report says that the EA has made it clear locally that it cannot do the work. That may have something to do with the Treasury-instigated spending cap. We don't know. However, if overall the funds needed to do the work that needed doing were not there, that implies higher rates for locals in a devolved system.

  • Options
    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @TGOHF

    'Interesting read here - been going longer than the floods'

    So much for the not enough money / cuts crap.

    'England's EA is almost the size of the Canadian, Danish, French, German, Swedish and Austrian EAs COMBINED! Going by these statistics, it would appear that the Environment Agency is overstaffed by around 9,000 and has a budget that appears to be £0.5-1 billion too much.'
  • Options
    Pulpstar said:

    I reckon the man for the EA job should be:

    Drumroll

    *******************

    John Reid.

    *******************

    Outflank Miliband with a head cracking SLAB arch-Blairite appointment.

    And clearly the EA is "Not fit for purpose".

    When Dave and John Reid unite, they crush their opponents like Caesar.

    For example when they crushed their Yes2AV in 2011.
  • Options
    New Thread
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,010

    One for our engineers and train enthusiasts.

    Any value in this

    William Hill ‏@sharpeangle 7m

    South West Train Line at Dawlish to be re-opened by end of March 2014: 4/7 No, 5/4 Yes.

    My utter finger-waving-in-the-air utter guesswork: they'll have it open for services by the first week of March *if* there are no new storms. A lot will depend on the state of the tides.

    Mind you, I was wrong when I said the house at the breach would have to be demolished, at least so far. The engineers on the job have been doing superb work, despite challenges in other areas locally. The use of 20-foot shipping containers filled with rubble to act as a temporary wave break was genius.

    It looks as though the foundations and toe of the wall are still intact, so it's probably a case of building a new concrete wall on the foundations, infilling behind, reinstating track, signalling and drainage. There's also lots of other work that needs doing; parapet walls are down over long stretches, and Dawlish station needs some work. But these can be done in parallel.

    There'll be much work to be done after the services resume. For instance, if the new wall is to be concrete (and I can't see why it wouldn't), they'll probably need to put a granite wall facing on to please the locals. But that can probably be done after services resume. Expect engineering closures all year as work continues.

    But IANAE, so the above should be taken as uninformed conjecture.
This discussion has been closed.