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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A 2014 by-election in Lansley’s Cambs South would be a bat

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited February 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A 2014 by-election in Lansley’s Cambs South would be a battle to relish – and there’s a reasonable chance it could happen

One of the big decisions that the coalition government has to take in the next few months is who should be the next UK EU Commissioner to the take up office in Brussels in the autumn. Lots of names have been mentioned and last week Ladbrokes opened a betting market.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    edited February 2014
    It's difficult to see how Mitchell can be appointed while the defamation proceedings have not been heard and determined. It should be noted that the Crown did not dispute PC Wallis' basis of plea at the Central Criminal Court, namely that he pretended to witness an otherwise true incident. Mr Justice Sweeney was explicit that it was not for that court to determine the truth of Mitchell's account.

    As for Lansely, is he a sufficiently serious politician? The man occupies the retirement-in-waiting post of Leader of the House of Commons, after a less than successful tenure as Secretary of State for Health. Appointing him might be seen as a profligate use of valuable patronage by the Prime Minister.

    It should also be noted that under EU law, only a 'committed European' can be appointed to the post. It is thus illegal in theory (although probably not in practice) for a genuine Eurosceptic to serve as a Commissioner.
  • If an appointment produces a by-election to relish that seems like a good reason to think it won't happen. Not to mention that the choice of Commissioner is Cameron's lasting legacy - do we really think he'll use it to dump a failed politician he wants to get rid of? All that happens is that the other member states give them a meaningless job, so it's not even an effective way to troll them.

    If the politics is too hard the safe move here would be to persuade Ashton to serve another term. Failing that surely there must be somebody in a country of 60 million who is right-wing, not obviously bonkers and not currently sitting as an MP for the Conservative Party?
  • Failing that surely there must be somebody in a country of 60 million who is right-wing, not obviously bonkers and not currently sitting as an MP for the Conservative Party?

    That's easy. Reappoint Peter Mandleson

  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Failing that surely there must be somebody in a country of 60 million who is right-wing, not obviously bonkers and not currently sitting as an MP for the Conservative Party?

    I'll do it :)

  • I am not sure a by-election will be necessary, bearing in mind possible delay over new Commission taking office.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    Hey, my constituency!

    A question: have the Lib Dems or Labour picked candidates for 2015 in CS yet?
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited February 2014
    The Good News returns to PB News Stands

    Some solid and reassuring January figures from The Visa UK Consumer Expenditure Index compiled by Markit and based on aggregate spending on Visa payment cards held by consumers.

    The data show consumers haven't been suffering from a post-Christmas hangover. Spending levels in January have continued to rise on both an annual and month-on-month basis. Growth rates are solid but not alarming.

    Headline findings:

    Year-on-year spending rose solidly in January (+1.5%), following a slight increase on the year in December (+0.8%).

    Month-on-month consumer spending increased at the quickest rate since September 2012 in January (+1.8%) following a similar sixed reduction in December (-1.8%).

    Quarterly spending figures signalled that underlying expenditure was relatively unchanged in January (-0.1%), following a slight improvement in December (+0.2%).

    • Non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year expenditure increased solidly through Online spending channels (+4.8%) and moderately in Face-to-Face and Mail/Telephone Order categories (+1.4% and +1.3%, respectively).


    On a sectoral level, the growth in expenditure was broadbased with positive figures in five out of the eight sectors measured. Notable high growth was recorded in 'Hotels and Restaurants' (+10%) and 'Household Goods' (+5%) with the main faller being 'Food, Beverages and Tobacco' (-3.6%).

    ONS showed a higher December Retail Sales figure (+6.1% annual, +2.6% monthly, both value) than anticipated by last month's Visa Index. A number of reasons may account for this. Visa measures a broader range of expenditure than ONS (the ONS equivalent would be the more 'buried' figure of 'Household Expenditure'); the two surveys use slightly different reference periods (ONS has a later cut off); and, Visa neither seasonally adjusts its figures nor takes account of the impact on shopping patterns of bank holidays falling on different days each year. Even though the two metrics are not directly comparable, they remain strongly correlated as demonstrated by various tracking charts in the Visa Report series.

    Part of the recent inconsistency may be explained by Visa's January monthly growth of 1.8% offsetting an identical fall in their December Index. If phasing is the main reason for the difference then we might anticipate a lower ONS Retail Sales figure for January.

    The overall picture, setting aside any difference arising from reference periods and seasonal adjustments, indicates continuing growth consistent with economic recovery as shown in other current economic data and surveys.

    Yellow Box to follow.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited February 2014
    Visa Consumer Expenditure Index continued...
    =================================================================
    Visa Europe UK Consumer Expenditure Index
    January 2014 Summary Table
    -----------------------------------------------------------------
    2014 2013 2013
    Jan Dec Nov
    Overall Spending Annual SA +1.5% +0.8% +1.5%
    Overall Spending 3m/3m SA -0.1% +0.1% +1.1%
    Overall Spending Monthly SA +1.8% -1.8% +1.0%

    Face-to-Face Spending Annual NSA +1.4% -1.9% +1.3%
    Online Spending Annual NSA +4.8% +6.8% +1.1%
    Mail/Telephone Order (MOTO) Annual NSA +1.3% +0.4% +2.7%
    =================================================================
    The only caution expressed in the Visa Report is on sustainability of growth if the real wages squeeze persists. As Paul Smith of Markit put it:

    “A cautionary note, however, is that spending volumes still remain down on pre-financial peaks, and sustained growth remains highly dependent on a reversal of the real-wage squeeze that has been evident in recent years.”

    However, such caution is somewhat undermined by the summary conclusions in the main body of the report which states;

    ... expenditure growth continues to be threatened by relatively stagnant or falling real wages, though this constraint on spending appears to be easing in recent months.

    Key questions therefore for PB Leftoids:

    1. Is the fall in consumer spend on food attributable to growth in the market share of Food Banks?
    2. What "cost of living" crisis?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    Still think there's a case for Clegg. OK, the Tory right would go ballistic, (what's new?) but the advantage for them would be that LD influence in Govt was reduced a bit while the new Leader/DPM settled in.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    edited February 2014
    Ed Davey trying hard to ignore politicians' roles in allowing an oligopolistic market to develop. Cue for calls for an 'investigation', a regulator led inquiry. After inflation is taken into account, what is a 'fair' return on capital for an energy company? BBC wade in with asinine comparisons with high volume low margin model for supermarkets.

    The green levies and charges imposed by politicians on final prices have nothing to do with it, no way, not at all, never have; just like waving mergers through. Must be some sort of election in the offing.


  • If an appointment produces a by-election to relish that seems like a good reason to think it won't happen. Not to mention that the choice of Commissioner is Cameron's lasting legacy - do we really think he'll use it to dump a failed politician he wants to get rid of? All that happens is that the other member states give them a meaningless job, so it's not even an effective way to troll them.

    If the politics is too hard the safe move here would be to persuade Ashton to serve another term. Failing that surely there must be somebody in a country of 60 million who is right-wing, not obviously bonkers and not currently sitting as an MP for the Conservative Party?

    Cynics would commend the Ashton ruse for a government facing defeat in 2015 to establish a precedent for appointing one's political opponents to lucrative sinecures.
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    Talk about undermining Ofsted!

    "One of his proposals is to give parents the power to "call in" inspections at schools they think are failing.

    Mr Miliband will say parents should be able to instigate school inspections when a "significant number" agree."


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26114419
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    @Millsy Hang on I've got an idea...parent led inspections as schools, patient led inspections at Stafford NHS trust...

    Photo should end up as a caption contest at Guido or pb header.
  • I am not sure a by-election will be necessary, bearing in mind possible delay over new Commission taking office.

    Right, they'd at least want to wait until they got confirmed, which could be ages if the member states don't want to pick the person the parliament think won the election. By which time, why bother with a by-election?

    PS If they're really floating Lansley it could be the tactic Obama uses when people don't want to confirm his nominees: Give them a disposible nominee to shoot down, then give them the person you really want. They can't shoot down two on the trot without looking obstructive.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,759
    Welcome back Avery. I linked last night to an excellent piece from David Smith who explained that those who are in work and have stayed in work have not really been suffering a real wage squeeze at all: http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/001991.html#more

    The explanation for the apparent fall is that the composition of the work force has been changing with more lower paid, less productive workers. This has driven down average wages below inflation and made the productivity figures look bad too.

    This explanation of the figures is much more consistent with both the level of consumption and the amount of deleveraging we have seen in household debt. In short the squeezed middle does not really exist except in the minds of the economically illiterate and the plain dishonest. In some cases these categories are not mutually exclusive of course.
  • GeoffM said:

    Failing that surely there must be somebody in a country of 60 million who is right-wing, not obviously bonkers and not currently sitting as an MP for the Conservative Party?

    I'll do it :)

    That's a more sensible suggestion than either of the ones in the thread header.
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    edited February 2014
    "While it is hard to envisage the Lib Dems gaining a seat in the current environment you cannot in a by-election rule anything out."

    The definition of optimism, Mike!

    All the Ukip council seats are in north Cambridgeshire? - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cambridgeshire_County_Council_election,_2013

    I think it would be a Con hold so close to the general election.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited February 2014
    @edmundintokyo [5:09 am]

    Cameron has to act on the assumption that he will continue as PM after 2015 and that his planned renegotiation of the UK's relationship with the EU and the subsequent 2017 referendum will take place as promised.

    This being the case, the appointment of a new EU Commissioner will be one of the most important personnel decisions Cameron will take this parliamentary term.

    The new Commissioner will need to be someone who is fully behind the Cameron/Osborne/Hague renegotiation; who is trusted fully; has sound pairs of eyes and ears; and who has a track record of strong negotiating and diplomatic skills. This applies even though the formal and legal role of an Commissioner is to act on behalf of the EU rather than their appointing Member.

    All this rules out a reappointment of Baroness Ashton, in spite of her success with the Syrian and Iranian negotiations. It probably also rules out Clegg as a successor, although Conservative party issues would probably be more of a decider here than trust or policy alignment.

    Another issue may be the office of the appointee within the Commission. I would not be surprised if Osborne wanted to wrest responsibility for the Internal Market brief back off the French as a means of protecting UK interests, particularly in the City, but, given the 2015-17 renegotiation agenda, this may need to be a second priority to holding on to Ashton's role at Foreign Affairs. Short of getting hold of the Presidency, which appears well beyond Cameron's reach, the role of High Representative probably offers the UK government the most leverage in any renegotiation of membership process.

    I think you are wrong to dismiss Lansley as a "failed politician". His reforms of the NHS, controversial and difficult though they were at the time, have now bedded in and perception of the success of his reforms is growing rapidly. With Cameron being a former protégé of Lansley the personal trust between the two will also be high. However, if Lansley has a weakness it is in his ability to manage the political fallout of complex and difficult negotiations. But then he won't be spearheading the renegotiations from within the Commission: that is Cameron and Hague's job.

    LIAMT's point about Andrew Mitchell needing to clear the decks of outstanding litigation before he can be appointed is persuasive. As well as being lower down than Lansley on the No 10 'trust' list, he looks a potential successor to Lansley as Leader of the House than the new EU Commissioner.

    All in all the shortening of the odds on Lansley makes sound sense and is a good spot.
  • DavidL said:

    Welcome back Avery. I linked last night to an excellent piece from David Smith who explained that those who are in work and have stayed in work have not really been suffering a real wage squeeze at all: http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/001991.html#more

    The explanation for the apparent fall is that the composition of the work force has been changing with more lower paid, less productive workers. This has driven down average wages below inflation and made the productivity figures look bad too.

    This explanation of the figures is much more consistent with both the level of consumption and the amount of deleveraging we have seen in household debt. In short the squeezed middle does not really exist except in the minds of the economically illiterate and the plain dishonest. In some cases these categories are not mutually exclusive of course.

    Which may explain why falls in unemployment are not translated into Conservative poll shares or even a significant drop in benefit spending (as out of work benefits are replaced by in-work benefits).
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,759
    On topic probably the most interesting thing about a by election in Cambs South would be how many of the Labour voters who voted Lib Dem in 2010 (their vote went down 9.5%) voted Labour.

    I don't really buy this idea that they are all going to drop their protests and vote Labour in Lab/Con seats but still be all tactical in Con/Lib seats. The Labour vote at the next election will be less efficient than it was in 2010 with more wasted votes in seats like this.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,759

    DavidL said:

    Welcome back Avery. I linked last night to an excellent piece from David Smith who explained that those who are in work and have stayed in work have not really been suffering a real wage squeeze at all: http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/001991.html#more

    The explanation for the apparent fall is that the composition of the work force has been changing with more lower paid, less productive workers. This has driven down average wages below inflation and made the productivity figures look bad too.

    This explanation of the figures is much more consistent with both the level of consumption and the amount of deleveraging we have seen in household debt. In short the squeezed middle does not really exist except in the minds of the economically illiterate and the plain dishonest. In some cases these categories are not mutually exclusive of course.

    Which may explain why falls in unemployment are not translated into Conservative poll shares or even a significant drop in benefit spending (as out of work benefits are replaced by in-work benefits).
    Yes it explains quite a lot of things that have seemed odd. It is an important piece of research that the tories need to explain to financial journalists in small words. Properly used it will undermine a lot of what Miliband is saying, especially as it appears that even the average real wage is now on the up.
  • AveryLP [6.44, 6.45am - two posts] This assumes that there is no one-time switch from cash spending to card spending. There may not be, of course, but how many of us here are drawing as much cash as we did, say, one, two or even five years ago? Someone should have the numbers (cash in circulation) to hand, I don't.
  • AveryLP said:

    @edmundintokyo [5:09 am]

    Cameron has to act on the assumption that he will continue as PM after 2015 and that his planned renegotiation of the UK's relationship with the EU and the subsequent 2017 referendum will take place as promised.

    This being the case, the appointment of a new EU Commissioner will be one of the most important personnel decisions Cameron will take this parliamentary term.

    The new Commissioner will need to be someone who is fully behind the Cameron/Osborne/Hague renegotiation; who is trusted fully; has sound pairs of eyes and ears; and who has a track record of strong negotiating and diplomatic skills. This applies even though the formal and legal role of an Commissioner is to act on behalf of the EU rather than their appointing Member.

    No it doesn't, the negotiation of the Treaty of Röfl is nothing to do with the British-appointed Minister for Education, Culture, Multilingualism and Youth or whatever it is Lansley would end up with. The hypothetical treaty would overwhelmingly be a discussion between the member states, and the main veto point would be what they would agree to and what, if anything, they could get past their own parliaments and voters.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    Con hold, I think. Most Labour voters probably won't think tactical voting gives a very realistic chance here in current circs.

    In reply to Richard N on the last thread - yes, the Swiss were extensively briefed on the potential consequences, not least by business, who were of course strongly opposed. The UKIP-like SVP, who were behind the proposal, eschewed xenophobic arguments and focused on protecting jobs and wages, which undermined the business argument - the bosses want you to vote no so as to enable them to import more low-wage people to take your job, etc. They also stressed the urbanisation of the countryisde (Switzerland is of course much smaller than Britain) due to population growth, and whether for that reason or others the cities voted heavily "no" and the rural areas voted heavily "yes".
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916

    AveryLP [6.44, 6.45am - two posts] This assumes that there is no one-time switch from cash spending to card spending. There may not be, of course, but how many of us here are drawing as much cash as we did, say, one, two or even five years ago? Someone should have the numbers (cash in circulation) to hand, I don't.

    The apparent increase in use of the debit card, as distinct from the credit card, may disguise the cash figure or is the use of debit cards counted as cash?
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Welcome back Avery. I linked last night to an excellent piece from David Smith who explained that those who are in work and have stayed in work have not really been suffering a real wage squeeze at all: http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/001991.html#more

    The explanation for the apparent fall is that the composition of the work force has been changing with more lower paid, less productive workers. This has driven down average wages below inflation and made the productivity figures look bad too.

    This explanation of the figures is much more consistent with both the level of consumption and the amount of deleveraging we have seen in household debt. In short the squeezed middle does not really exist except in the minds of the economically illiterate and the plain dishonest. In some cases these categories are not mutually exclusive of course.

    Which may explain why falls in unemployment are not translated into Conservative poll shares or even a significant drop in benefit spending (as out of work benefits are replaced by in-work benefits).
    Yes it explains quite a lot of things that have seemed odd. It is an important piece of research that the tories need to explain to financial journalists in small words. Properly used it will undermine a lot of what Miliband is saying, especially as it appears that even the average real wage is now on the up.
    I'm not sure it undermines Miliband, or even that it matters very much. Individual voters will know if they feel better or worse off, and whether they see themselves as the Squeezed Middle is of no great import. In America, everyone who graduated high school [sic] and is not a billionaire sees themselves as middle class.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited February 2014
    DavidL said:

    Welcome back Avery. I linked last night to an excellent piece from David Smith who explained that those who are in work and have stayed in work have not really been suffering a real wage squeeze at all: http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/001991.html#more

    The explanation for the apparent fall is that the composition of the work force has been changing with more lower paid, less productive workers. This has driven down average wages below inflation and made the productivity figures look bad too.

    This explanation of the figures is much more consistent with both the level of consumption and the amount of deleveraging we have seen in household debt. In short the squeezed middle does not really exist except in the minds of the economically illiterate and the plain dishonest. In some cases these categories are not mutually exclusive of course.

    David

    That is a good blog article by David Smith.

    I remember a few weeks ago I made a comment about an interviewee at a Durham (?) car parts factory visited by George Osborne, He was asked about the "cost of living crisis", dutifully made a few comments about rising prices and the difficulty of keeping up with the costs of living, then paused a moment and said: "But we have been well treated here, with a 3%, 4% and 4% pay rise over the last three years and a lot of increased overtime".

    It was no surprise then when the most recent Economic Review published by the ONS (and referenced by David Smith) revealed that, in the manufacturing sector, productivity hasn't really fallen at all and that pay rises have more than kept place with inflation. If you are working for a manufacturer that is doing well (and the motor industry is an obvious example) then you are certainly surviving and doing much better than the 'burger flippers' and 'benefit scroungers'.**

    This is an area you covered in previous posts, but it is good to see the granularity of data coming out from the ONS and various economic think tanks that supports this interpretation.

    If manufacturers are benefitting then this should have an impact on voting the key Midlands marginals.

    Maybe that is why Mr. Brooke has been appearing so smug and Dr. Palmer so downbeat these past few weeks?

    [** inserted to damn you by association and thereby to stop you becoming "owned" by the PB Leftoids!]


  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,759

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Welcome back Avery. I linked last night to an excellent piece from David Smith who explained that those who are in work and have stayed in work have not really been suffering a real wage squeeze at all: http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/001991.html#more

    The explanation for the apparent fall is that the composition of the work force has been changing with more lower paid, less productive workers. This has driven down average wages below inflation and made the productivity figures look bad too.

    This explanation of the figures is much more consistent with both the level of consumption and the amount of deleveraging we have seen in household debt. In short the squeezed middle does not really exist except in the minds of the economically illiterate and the plain dishonest. In some cases these categories are not mutually exclusive of course.

    Which may explain why falls in unemployment are not translated into Conservative poll shares or even a significant drop in benefit spending (as out of work benefits are replaced by in-work benefits).
    Yes it explains quite a lot of things that have seemed odd. It is an important piece of research that the tories need to explain to financial journalists in small words. Properly used it will undermine a lot of what Miliband is saying, especially as it appears that even the average real wage is now on the up.
    I'm not sure it undermines Miliband, or even that it matters very much. Individual voters will know if they feel better or worse off, and whether they see themselves as the Squeezed Middle is of no great import. In America, everyone who graduated high school [sic] and is not a billionaire sees themselves as middle class.
    I think it was American research that triggered this investigation. Their average real wage has been static for decades whilst what we would call the middle class has clearly been getting richer. The explanation is the massive increase in minimum wage service based employment holding the average down by changing the composition of the workforce.

    In political terms you are probably right. But it might change the media narrative if used properly.

  • @DavidL - "In short the squeezed middle does not really exist except in the minds of the economically illiterate and the plain dishonest. In some cases these categories are not mutually exclusive of course"

    This is one of the great all-time PB comments.

    All those people feeling that they are struggling to make ends meet each and every month are just making it up. They are, in fact, thriving. How very dare they not vote Tory!!!!
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    DavidL said:

    The explanation is the massive increase in minimum wage service based employment holding the average down by changing the composition of the workforce.

    I dont remember ASHE indicating a "massive increase in minimum wage service based employment" the last time I looked over it. What do you define as "massive"?

    We know that vast numbers of public sector workers, for example, have been subject to nominal wage cuts never mind real terms' cuts.

    I'm pretty sure that despite being told they are illiterate or dishonest for believing so there is a sizeable number of people for whom cost of living is a significant issue.
  • Con hold, I think. Most Labour voters probably won't think tactical voting gives a very realistic chance here in current circs.

    Maybe the demographics aren't ideal but if that's right UKIP would be in serious contention, wouldn't they? If they snaffle half the Con voters while the LibDems fizzle they win just like that, and if you're right that it's too much for the LibDems to bite off then UKIP could pull quite a few votes from them as well.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Welcome back Avery. I linked last night to an excellent piece from David Smith who explained that those who are in work and have stayed in work have not really been suffering a real wage squeeze at all: http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/001991.html#more

    The explanation for the apparent fall is that the composition of the work force has been changing with more lower paid, less productive workers. This has driven down average wages below inflation and made the productivity figures look bad too.

    This explanation of the figures is much more consistent with both the level of consumption and the amount of deleveraging we have seen in household debt. In short the squeezed middle does not really exist except in the minds of the economically illiterate and the plain dishonest. In some cases these categories are not mutually exclusive of course.

    Which may explain why falls in unemployment are not translated into Conservative poll shares or even a significant drop in benefit spending (as out of work benefits are replaced by in-work benefits).
    Yes it explains quite a lot of things that have seemed odd. It is an important piece of research that the tories need to explain to financial journalists in small words. Properly used it will undermine a lot of what Miliband is saying, especially as it appears that even the average real wage is now on the up.
    I'm not sure it undermines Miliband, or even that it matters very much. Individual voters will know if they feel better or worse off, and whether they see themselves as the Squeezed Middle is of no great import. In America, everyone who graduated high school [sic] and is not a billionaire sees themselves as middle class.
    I think it was American research that triggered this investigation. Their average real wage has been static for decades whilst what we would call the middle class has clearly been getting richer. The explanation is the massive increase in minimum wage service based employment holding the average down by changing the composition of the workforce.

    In political terms you are probably right. But it might change the media narrative if used properly.

    What would we call the middle class?

  • @DavidL - "In short the squeezed middle does not really exist except in the minds of the economically illiterate and the plain dishonest. In some cases these categories are not mutually exclusive of course"

    This is one of the great all-time PB comments.

    All those people feeling that they are struggling to make ends meet each and every month are just making it up. They are, in fact, thriving. How very dare they not vote Tory!!!!

    Well, SO, we both know that in a decent country the Tories would save them the trouble of going to a polling station by voting for them.


  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    I've taken Max at 7-1, but I still think it is Mitchell still.

    Covered on the pair with a small loss on Patterson now...

    I think UKIP have a serious chance of Cambridge South if a by-election goes ahead there.

  • It should also be noted that under EU law, only a 'committed European' can be appointed to the post. It is thus illegal in theory (although probably not in practice) for a genuine Eurosceptic to serve as a Commissioner.

    WTF is a 'committed European'? I am a committed European and I want to se the EU's powers severely limited. Danial Hannan is a committed European. Europe is a place. The EU is a political construct.

    If the EU law requires its commissioners to be solely dedicated to 'the project' then it is not a democracy. Democracy requires that the people can from time to time choose something different. If the EU law requires no change of policy ever then that is a tacit admission that they cannot tolerate the people actually choosing their government's direction of travel.

    Really, imagine if in some alternate universe Dave actually made Hannan the commissioner - well what grounds would they have to refuse this?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,759

    @DavidL - "In short the squeezed middle does not really exist except in the minds of the economically illiterate and the plain dishonest. In some cases these categories are not mutually exclusive of course"

    This is one of the great all-time PB comments.

    All those people feeling that they are struggling to make ends meet each and every month are just making it up. They are, in fact, thriving. How very dare they not vote Tory!!!!

    Thanks SO. We are only here to serve.

    In reality the wages of those in work have kept up with inflation but the top ups they were getting in equity withdrawal and easy credit are no longer available.

    Some people have lost well paying jobs of course and the increase in employment is too much biased towards the subsidised end with the result that in work benefits have cancelled out the reduction we ought to have seen with over 1m more people employed.

    This is not a perfect scenario by any means. But given where we started it could have been worse.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    AveryLP said:

    The Good News returns to PB News Stands

    Some solid and reassuring January figures from The Visa UK Consumer Expenditure Index compiled by Markit and based on aggregate spending on Visa payment cards held by consumers.

    The data show consumers haven't been suffering from a post-Christmas hangover. Spending levels in January have continued to rise on both an annual and month-on-month basis. Growth rates are solid but not alarming.

    Headline findings:

    Year-on-year spending rose solidly in January (+1.5%), following a slight increase on the year in December (+0.8%).

    Month-on-month consumer spending increased at the quickest rate since September 2012 in January (+1.8%) following a similar sixed reduction in December (-1.8%).

    Quarterly spending figures signalled that underlying expenditure was relatively unchanged in January (-0.1%), following a slight improvement in December (+0.2%).

    • Non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year expenditure increased solidly through Online spending channels (+4.8%) and moderately in Face-to-Face and Mail/Telephone Order categories (+1.4% and +1.3%, respectively).


    On a sectoral level, the growth in expenditure was broadbased with positive figures in five out of the eight sectors measured. Notable high growth was recorded in 'Hotels and Restaurants' (+10%) and 'Household Goods' (+5%) with the main faller being 'Food, Beverages and Tobacco' (-3.6%).

    ONS showed a higher December Retail Sales figure (+6.1% annual, +2.6% monthly, both value) than anticipated by last month's Visa Index. A number of reasons may account for this. Visa measures a broader range of expenditure than ONS (the ONS equivalent would be the more 'buried' figure of 'Household Expenditure'); the two surveys use slightly different reference periods (ONS has a later cut off); and, Visa neither seasonally adjusts its figures nor takes account of the impact on shopping patterns of bank holidays falling on different days each year. Even though the two metrics are not directly comparable, they remain strongly correlated as demonstrated by various tracking charts in the Visa Report series.

    Part of the recent inconsistency may be explained by Visa's January monthly growth of 1.8% offsetting an identical fall in their December Index. If phasing is the main reason for the difference then we might anticipate a lower ONS Retail Sales figure for January.

    The overall picture, setting aside any difference arising from reference periods and seasonal adjustments, indicates continuing growth consistent with economic recovery as shown in other current economic data and surveys.

    Yellow Box to follow.

    Good to see you back Mr Pole, but Osborne's still dire ;-)
  • Neil said:

    DavidL said:

    The explanation is the massive increase in minimum wage service based employment holding the average down by changing the composition of the workforce.

    I dont remember ASHE indicating a "massive increase in minimum wage service based employment" the last time I looked over it. What do you define as "massive"?

    We know that vast numbers of public sector workers, for example, have been subject to nominal wage cuts never mind real terms' cuts.

    I'm pretty sure that despite being told they are illiterate or dishonest for believing so there is a sizeable number of people for whom cost of living is a significant issue.

    Indeed. This may be one to file away under "Stats to make Tories feel better". As much as I would love the Tories to start shouting form the rooftops that everyone who claims to be struggling is making it up, I can't see them being that foolish. Here's hoping though.

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    edited February 2014
    Patrick said:

    It should also be noted that under EU law, only a 'committed European' can be appointed to the post. It is thus illegal in theory (although probably not in practice) for a genuine Eurosceptic to serve as a Commissioner.

    WTF is a 'committed European'? I am a committed European and I want to se the EU's powers severely limited. Danial Hannan is a committed European. Europe is a place. The EU is a political construct.

    If the EU law requires its commissioners to be solely dedicated to 'the project' then it is not a democracy. Democracy requires that the people can from time to time choose something different. If the EU law requires no change of policy ever then that is a tacit admission that they cannot tolerate the people actually choosing their government's direction of travel.

    Really, imagine if in some alternate universe Dave actually made Hannan the commissioner - well what grounds would they have to refuse this?
    This is the oath they have to take which I assume is what Life_ina_market_town is talking about:
    Having been appointed as a Member of the European Commission by the European Council, following the vote of consent by the European Parliament I solemnly undertake: to respect the Treaties and the Charter of Fundamental Rights of the European Union in the fulfilment of all my duties; to be completely independent in carrying out my responsibilities, in the general interest of the Union; in the performance of my tasks, neither to seek nor to take instructions from any Government or from any other institution, body, office or entity; to refrain from any action incompatible with my duties or the performance of my tasks.

    I formally note the undertaking of each Member State to respect this principle and not to seek to influence Members of the Commission in the performance of their tasks. I further undertake to respect, both during and after my term of office, the obligation arising therefrom, and in particular the duty to behave with integrity and discretion as regards the acceptance, after I have ceased to hold office, of certain appointments or benefits.
    So basically you're supposed to respect the treaties. This is pretty typical for political jobs - you normally have to promise to uphold the constitution under which you got the job. This can be a problem for people who don't recognize the constitution in the first place, as it is for Sinn Fein.

    It doesn't necessarily mean you shouldn't advocate for the constitution to be changed, and constitutions usually include a method for changing themselves , but in this case I suppose you'd be going against the oath if you advocated countries unilaterally ignoring the treaties they've signed, which some people of a British Eurosceptic persuasion seem to want.
  • Brilliant article on Cameron's Unionist speech and the SNP's responses;
    http://www.heraldscotland.com/comment/columnists/let-us-sing-from-camerons-hymn-sheet-on-the-union.23365716
  • DavidL said:

    @DavidL - "In short the squeezed middle does not really exist except in the minds of the economically illiterate and the plain dishonest. In some cases these categories are not mutually exclusive of course"

    This is one of the great all-time PB comments.

    All those people feeling that they are struggling to make ends meet each and every month are just making it up. They are, in fact, thriving. How very dare they not vote Tory!!!!

    Thanks SO. We are only here to serve.

    In reality the wages of those in work have kept up with inflation but the top ups they were getting in equity withdrawal and easy credit are no longer available.

    Some people have lost well paying jobs of course and the increase in employment is too much biased towards the subsidised end with the result that in work benefits have cancelled out the reduction we ought to have seen with over 1m more people employed.

    This is not a perfect scenario by any means. But given where we started it could have been worse.

    Hmmm. Another possibility is that wages at the very top end are also affecting the overall average. I think we are due to find out today, for example, that Barclays paid £2 billion in bonuses last year. Median is surely much more helpful here.

    The Tories will also have to hope that Mr Carney will continue to accommodate the man who appointed him with regards to interest rates.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    @AveryLP, @Alanbrooke

    Be grateful you're not French. Industrial production sank 0.3% in December, worse than the 0.2% expected. Business sentiment also dropped marginally to 99 (against an expectation of a small rise).

    The German current account balance was slightly smaller than expected - which is probably a marginal benefit to the periphery.

    Finnish industrial production dropped in December, falling 2.2% from November. How much of this is due to Nokia is an interesting question.

    Japanese consumer confidence also weakened unexpectedly, falling to 40.5. Despite massive money printing, Abenomics seems to be stalling.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Eric Pickles is hopefully learning that crapping all over your officials in order to shift the blame isnt always the best strategy.
  • EiT

    Thanks for this clarification. So nothing actually that would stop a Eurosceptic staying within the law AND defending his principles.
  • Patrick said:

    EiT

    Thanks for this clarification. So nothing actually that would stop a Eurosceptic staying within the law AND defending his principles.

    Right, at least that would be how I'd read it. Hopefully @Life_ina_market_town will jump in and tell us if there's some other rule they're supposed to follow as well as the oath.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    WTF is a 'committed European'? I am a committed European and I want to se the EU's powers severely limited. Danial Hannan is a committed European. Europe is a place. The EU is a political construct.

    While I think the Europhiles are about 500 years too early, it's worth pointing out that a resident of Lindsey in 750AD would have said the same about England. And residents of Scotland in 1650 (or even post 1707) would probably have said the same about Great Britain.

    Countries, towns, villages, etc. etc. etc., are just human constructs. And they will come and go over the millennia.

    (For the record, I suspect that the UK will last longer than the EU. But I have no doubt that, over a sufficiently long timespan, they will both be gone.)
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    The PM will want to avoid a potential by-election banana skin. So not Mitchell or indeed any MP with a majority less than 30,000 !!

    Perhaps a few names from the recent past might pass muster :

    Michael Howard .. Michael Forsyth .. Gillian Shepard .. Virginia Bottomley
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    rcs1000 said:

    @AveryLP, @Alanbrooke

    Be grateful you're not French. Industrial production sank 0.3% in December, worse than the 0.2% expected. Business sentiment also dropped marginally to 99 (against an expectation of a small rise).

    The German current account balance was slightly smaller than expected - which is probably a marginal benefit to the periphery.

    Finnish industrial production dropped in December, falling 2.2% from November. How much of this is due to Nokia is an interesting question.

    Japanese consumer confidence also weakened unexpectedly, falling to 40.5. Despite massive money printing, Abenomics seems to be stalling.

    rcs every morning I fall to my knees and thank God I'm not french - and it has nothing to do with economics ;-)
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @Pulpstar

    It's not the kind of market I'd like to build a comprehensive book on. Could easily be an outsider no bookies even thought to list.
  • Without some significant Maggie-style reform France is going to sink the Euro and the EU. I don't think that what they need to do is politically or culturally sellable in France though. It will be fascinating and a bit scary to see what breaks first.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    Oh dear Eurostat appear to think the Greeks are casting their deficit figures in an unduly favourable light. Old habits die hard I suppose.

    http://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/2014/02/10/20002-20140210ARTFIG00046-eurostat-jette-un-froid-sur-les-chiffres-officiels-du-deficit-en-grece.php
  • Neil said:

    @Pulpstar

    It's not the kind of market I'd like to build a comprehensive book on. Could easily be an outsider no bookies even thought to list.

    Yup, I'd much rather be on Shadsy's side of this one.

    BTW does it have to wait until they're confirmed before it settles? Could be a while...
  • Neil said:

    Eric Pickles is hopefully learning that crapping all over your officials in order to shift the blame isnt always the best strategy.

    And Chris Smith is learning that you really should read the stuff on your own website.....airily dismissing it as "it hasn't been policy since I've been head" will not pass muster if there is not a newer policy in its place......

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    Patrick said:

    Without some significant Maggie-style reform France is going to sink the Euro and the EU. I don't think that what they need to do is politically or culturally sellable in France though. It will be fascinating and a bit scary to see what breaks first.

    And don't forget: the first effect of Maggie-type reform is that unemployment rises. (If you allow companies to fire unproductive workers, then guess what they do...) Following the Maggie reforms, UK unemployment swelled from 1m to 3m. The Hartz reforms in Germany led to unemployment increasing 25-35%. There can be little doubt that one of the reasons why Spanish unemployment shot up to near 30% was because firms were allowed - for the first time - to let workers go.

    Longer-term, of course, labour market reforms lead to lower unemployment and faster economic growth. But politicians with long time horizons are rare. Hollande could be that man - but it does seem unlikely.

    Of course, if Germany continues to be relatively strong, and Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands continue their recent improvements, France can put off reform for now. And, fortunately for the French, personal and debts are very modest, and their banks are (by and large) strong and under-levered. But I tend to agree with you that the future of the Euro rests on France.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    AveryLP said:



    Maybe that is why Mr. Brooke has been appearing so smug and Dr. Palmer so downbeat these past few weeks?


    Eh? That's projection, old boy. I try to be realistic. I think Labour will win fairly easily if nothing much changes except for economic growth, though I realise that 15 months of black swans could produce who knows what effects. I'm quite confident of winning myself - for example, we are currently delivering my latest 4-pager in 3 months to every household, and the Tories haven't had enough people to do that since last May. They just don't have a significant constituency-wide ground organisation except when they bring people in for special efforts.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @EiT

    The Paddy Power market just says "next EU commissioner after Catherine Ashton". That might imply confirmation required for settlement but I wouldnt be surprised to see them settle on the announcement of their candidate.

    @Carlotta

    Chris Smith was probably just super angry with the BBC for revealing the secret EU directive to flood Somerset.
  • Right, at least that would be how I'd read it. Hopefully @Life_ina_market_town will jump in and tell us if there's some other rule they're supposed to follow as well as the oath.

    My point did not concern oaths. Article 17(3) of the Treaty on European Union, as amended, inter alia provides that:
    The members of the Commission shall be chosen on the ground of their general competence and European commitment from persons whose independence is beyond doubt.
    The term "European commitment" can only be interpreted, when the Treaties are read as a whole, as excluding Eurosceptics. Does anyone think that any of the EU institutions would accept that "European commitment" could entail an attempt to dismantle the European Union, even by constitutional means?
  • Good morning, everyone.

    F1: nice of Ecclestone to set a market rate for whistleblowing:
    http://www.espn.co.uk/f1/motorsport/story/144787.html

    Catch someone breaking a budget cap, get €1m. Or, tell the team you know and ask them for more.

    For reference, two weeks of Schumacher's salary at Ferrari (about a decade ago) would come to around €1m.

    Mr. Brooke, I find it hard to believe Greece or the eurozone generally would misreport figures or fail to follow fiscal guidelines. I'm sure there's no precedent for such a thing.

    Mr. 1000, I must disagree. Certain identities, such as the English and French, are very old and firmly entrenched. Even if you disregard that sort of thing, the economic, cultural and demographic differences between the constituent parts of the eurozone (as well as recent history) make it abundantly clear it's a creation of folly. I concur with you that the EU will crumble to dust whilst the UK (perhaps in a smaller form) will remain.

    And, of course, the UK/England will pass one day too. Unless we manage to avoid a Big Freeze or Big Crunch that's a certainty. But it's been a very resilient entity.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    Neil said:

    @EiT

    The Paddy Power market just says "next EU commissioner after Catherine Ashton". That might imply confirmation required for settlement but I wouldnt be surprised to see them settle on the announcement of their candidate.

    @Carlotta

    Chris Smith was probably just super angry with the BBC for revealing the secret EU directive to flood Somerset.

    I think a Chris Smith party in a brewery would be a very sober affair.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,743
    edited February 2014
    Dave's timeshare sales speech is already the digital equivalent of chip papers. Only one speech last week that'll have any effect on the referendum, by someone who usually has 'disgraced ex msp' prefixed to his name when mentioned by the mighty organs of our press

    http://tinyurl.com/pqe9nsf


    BTW Monica, how many sweaties have you phoned to persuade to stay in the Union?
  • The possible EU commissioners can be identified by Guess Who? principles.

    Fold down all your cards who are not senior Conservatives - David Cameron has to be seen to be rewarding one of his own on this particular appointment. So farewell Nick Clegg, Baroness Ashton etc.

    Fold down all your cards who are the least bit suspicious to your mainstream Eurosceptic. David Cameron cannot afford to be seen to be risking sending someone who would go native. Former members of the SDP, such as Andrew Lansley, are non-starters.

    Fold down all your cards where the consequence would be an awkward by-election. Though I note the point upthread that there might not need to be a by-election for this appointment, given timings. This is important, so it needs to be investigated further.

    Look very carefully at people who David Cameron might want out of the way or who he might well feel he owes something.

    That seems to me to leave just three plausible candidates: Andrew Mitchell, David Davis and Liam Fox. I find it very hard to look past Andrew Mitchell.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    edited February 2014

    Right, at least that would be how I'd read it. Hopefully @Life_ina_market_town will jump in and tell us if there's some other rule they're supposed to follow as well as the oath.

    My point did not concern oaths. Article 17(3) of the Treaty on European Union, as amended, inter alia provides that:
    The members of the Commission shall be chosen on the ground of their general competence and European commitment from persons whose independence is beyond doubt.
    The term "European commitment" can only be interpreted, when the Treaties are read as a whole, as excluding Eurosceptics. Does anyone think that any of the EU institutions would accept that "European commitment" could entail an attempt to dismantle the European Union, even by constitutional means?

    "European commitment" seems vague enough to mean whatever anybody wants it to mean.

    The EU institutions that decide who gets to be in the Commission are the heads of the member states and the EU parliament, which are both elected. If the voters vote for national governments and MEPs who want to dismantle the EU, they'll have no problem interpreting that to mean people who want to dismantle the EU can be Commissioners in the interim.

    As it stands none of the heads of state want to dismantle the EU, and only a small minority of MEPs do, so it would be a bit surprising if they approved someone like that.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    antifrank said:


    That seems to me to leave just three plausible candidates: Andrew Mitchell, David Davis and Liam Fox. I find it very hard to look past Andrew Mitchell.

    I think Dave would prefer to pack Liam Fox off to NATO. I think Liam Fox would prefer that too.
  • ..and he'd prefer to pack David Davis off the sun with a giant space cannon. So Mitchell it is...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    edited February 2014
    What the consultation document said:

    Take action to increase the frequency of flooding to deliver benefits locally or elsewhere,
    (which may constitute an overall flood risk reduction, e.g. for habitat inundation). Note: This policy option involves a strategic increase in flooding in allocated areas, but is not intended to adversely affect the risk to individual properties.

    http://www.tauntondeane.gov.uk/irj/go/km/docs/CouncilDocuments/TDBC/Documents/Forward Planning/Evidence Base/Parret Catchment Flood Management Plan.pdf

    What the policy now is:

    we will take action with others to store water or manage runoff in locations that provide overall flood risk reduction or environmental benefits.
    By adopting this policy and redistributing water some areas will be subject to increased flooding while others will benefit from reduced flooding. The aim is to achieve a net overall benefit.

    http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/static/documents/Leisure/_CFMP_Parrett_2012.pdf

    Sounds like the same policy sugar coated - but contrary to what Chris Smith said on R4 planned increases in flooding are part of the Environment Agency plan.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    AveryLP said:



    Maybe that is why Mr. Brooke has been appearing so smug and Dr. Palmer so downbeat these past few weeks?


    Eh? That's projection, old boy. I try to be realistic. I think Labour will win fairly easily if nothing much changes except for economic growth, though I realise that 15 months of black swans could produce who knows what effects. I'm quite confident of winning myself - for example, we are currently delivering my latest 4-pager in 3 months to every household, and the Tories haven't had enough people to do that since last May. They just don't have a significant constituency-wide ground organisation except when they bring people in for special efforts.
    Here's a thoughtlet Nick ....

    Broxtowe voters may enjoy your latest 4-pager so much that they'll want to avoid electing you as MP so that you keep up the good work !!

    Hhhmmm ....


  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    edited February 2014

    "European commitment" seems vague enough to mean whatever anybody wants it to mean.

    The EU institutions that decide who gets to be in the Commission are the heads of the member states and the EU parliament, which are both elected. If the voters vote for national governments and MEPs who want to dismantle the EU, they'll have no problem interpreting that to mean people who want to dismantle the EU can be Commissioners in the interim.

    As it stands none of the heads of state want to dismantle the EU, and only a small minority of MEPs do, so it would be a bit surprising if they approved someone like that.

    That was why I said that the exclusion applied in theory! If there is one thing that can always be taken for granted when it comes to the European Union, it is that the EU institutions will not follow their own rules if it is politically inexpedient. That is why the concept of EU "law" is somewhat of an oxymoron. Indeed, the claim in the Statute of Kilkenny of 1366 that the Irish legal system 'by right out not to be called law but bad custom' applies with force to EU law.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    edited February 2014
    Dave could choose me. I'd be happy to be a sceptic mole in Brussels on a middling six figure salary for a few years. I'd do a good job!

    CCHQ readers you can contact me via the website owner. ;-)
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited February 2014

    AveryLP [6.44, 6.45am - two posts] This assumes that there is no one-time switch from cash spending to card spending. There may not be, of course, but how many of us here are drawing as much cash as we did, say, one, two or even five years ago? Someone should have the numbers (cash in circulation) to hand, I don't.

    IA

    Some stats from latest BoE published figures
                              Balance o/s             
    Jan Dec Change
    2012 2013 2 Yrs
    £ millions %

    Consumer Credit 1,408,691 1,435,129 + 1.9

    of which
    Unsecured Credit 160,429 158,184 - 1.4

    -------------------------------------------------
    Notes and Coin 61,327 66,679 + 8.7

    of which
    Household 49,729 54,453 + 9.5

    -------------------------------------------------
    Deposits

    Current a/c 113,392 128,494 + 13.3
    Savings (sight) a/cs 435,638 524,904 + 20.5
    Savings (term) a/cs 281,483 237,965 - 15.4
    Cash ISA a/cs 195,753 226,970 + 15.9
    This supports DavidL's claims that households have been deleveraging. Net Secured lending has risen but only in the last quarter of 2013, as up 'til then households were paying off more mortgage debt than they were in receipt of new lending. Even so the net rise of 1.9% over two years is minimal.

    With unsecured lending the main change has been an offsetting shift from overdraft finance to credit card lending with very limited net impact. Personal loans have risen this year mainly due to increased finance for new car purchase. The net impact though is of a small reduction in overall unsecured lending.

    More movement on the deposits side though. There has been much talk of consumption being financed by a reduction in the Savings Ratio, but although the BoE figures show movement of funds out of interesting bearing term accounts a very large proportion has gone to the more tax efficient ISA savings products rather than to consumption expenditure.

    All in all these figures show a very healthy (almost too healthy) position in household finances.

    "Cost of Living Crisis"! What cost of living crisis?
  • "European commitment" seems vague enough to mean whatever anybody wants it to mean.

    The EU institutions that decide who gets to be in the Commission are the heads of the member states and the EU parliament, which are both elected. If the voters vote for national governments and MEPs who want to dismantle the EU, they'll have no problem interpreting that to mean people who want to dismantle the EU can be Commissioners in the interim.

    As it stands none of the heads of state want to dismantle the EU, and only a small minority of MEPs do, so it would be a bit surprising if they approved someone like that.

    That was why I said that the exclusion applied in theory! If there is one thing that can always be taken for granted when it comes to the European Union, it is that the EU institutions will not follow their own rules if it is politically inexpedient. That is why the concept of EU "law" is somewhat of an oxymoron. Indeed, the claim in the Statute of Kilkenny of 1366 that the Irish legal system 'by right out not to be called law but bad custom' applies with force to EU law.
    More to the point, there's no meaningful rule there to follow. What does "European commitment" mean? Nothing in particular.
  • antifrank said:

    The possible EU commissioners can be identified by Guess Who? principles.

    Fold down all your cards who are not senior Conservatives - David Cameron has to be seen to be rewarding one of his own on this particular appointment. So farewell Nick Clegg, Baroness Ashton etc.

    Fold down all your cards who are the least bit suspicious to your mainstream Eurosceptic. David Cameron cannot afford to be seen to be risking sending someone who would go native. Former members of the SDP, such as Andrew Lansley, are non-starters.

    Fold down all your cards where the consequence would be an awkward by-election. Though I note the point upthread that there might not need to be a by-election for this appointment, given timings. This is important, so it needs to be investigated further.

    Look very carefully at people who David Cameron might want out of the way or who he might well feel he owes something.

    That seems to me to leave just three plausible candidates: Andrew Mitchell, David Davis and Liam Fox. I find it very hard to look past Andrew Mitchell.

    Look back at Plebgate and you will see Mitchell had no friends or allies in the Whips' Office, Cabinet or backbenches. Clearly the man was no great loss to the diplomatic corps so it seems perverse to nominate him.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Don't see a by election here myself . FWIW 2013 CC results in this parliamentary constituency were
    Con 9349 LD 8109 Lab 4648 UKIP 3999 Green 2054 Ind/Other 828
  • Tommy Sheridan.

    Just checking.
  • Look back at Plebgate and you will see Mitchell had no friends or allies in the Whips' Office, Cabinet or backbenches. Clearly the man was no great loss to the diplomatic corps so it seems perverse to nominate him.

    Especially for a job where you have almost no independent power, and your sole ability to get things done relies on your ability to persuade and form consensus among ministers from 28 different countries. Does anyone actually think Mitchell would be good at this?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Does anyone actually think Mitchell would be good at this?

    He could be Commissioner for international development if there is one. Lots of experience from his time as SoS for international development.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    Look back at Plebgate and you will see Mitchell had no friends or allies in the Whips' Office, Cabinet or backbenches. Clearly the man was no great loss to the diplomatic corps so it seems perverse to nominate him.

    Especially for a job where you have almost no independent power, and your sole ability to get things done relies on your ability to persuade and form consensus among ministers from 28 different countries. Does anyone actually think Mitchell would be good at this?
    He sounds like a shoo-in then...

    Actually, if I were a BOO Conservative, I would have thought Nick Clegg was the perfect candidate. You want to ensure the EU is held in as great a level of contempt as possible. David David would probably go native. Liam Fox is off to NATO. Andrew Mitchell is insufferable. Clegg would ensure nobody took the EU seriously. Plus it would mean that the LibDems were engaged in civil war (Lefties vs Orange Bookers) ahead of the next GE, increasing the chances of Tory gains from the Libs.

    However, I may be over-thinking this :-)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,118
    Rather better - and not from someone who is well known to be Salmond-hostile:

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/comment/columnists/forget-the-postcard-dave-its-time-to-pay-us-a-visit.23360160

    I was actually quite taken aback when my intelligent-and-thoughtful-but-neutral friend delivered a devastating attack on Mr Cameron's speech last time I saw him for coffee. The most polite word he used was 'drivel'. If that is the impact it has had on him ...!
  • Look back at Plebgate and you will see Mitchell had no friends or allies in the Whips' Office, Cabinet or backbenches. Clearly the man was no great loss to the diplomatic corps so it seems perverse to nominate him.

    Especially for a job where you have almost no independent power, and your sole ability to get things done relies on your ability to persuade and form consensus among ministers from 28 different countries. Does anyone actually think Mitchell would be good at this?
    As if competence has ever been a requirement for being an EU commissioner.
  • Neil said:

    Does anyone actually think Mitchell would be good at this?

    He could be Commissioner for international development if there is one. Lots of experience from his time as SoS for international development.

    Apparently they have something called a European Commissioner for International Cooperation, Humanitarian Aid and Crisis Response, but the incumbent is only in her first term and seems to be going down well so I'd have thought she'd do a second, unless she gets promoted.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955

    we are currently delivering my latest 4-pager in 3 months to every household

    Nick, what in the name of everything holy do you SAY to them? Four pages is, er, 4 more pages than Labour has policy to fill them!

    Or maybe it is just four pages of saying how very, very sorry you were for screwing up Britain last time?
  • rcs1000 said:

    Look back at Plebgate and you will see Mitchell had no friends or allies in the Whips' Office, Cabinet or backbenches. Clearly the man was no great loss to the diplomatic corps so it seems perverse to nominate him.

    Especially for a job where you have almost no independent power, and your sole ability to get things done relies on your ability to persuade and form consensus among ministers from 28 different countries. Does anyone actually think Mitchell would be good at this?
    He sounds like a shoo-in then...

    Actually, if I were a BOO Conservative, I would have thought Nick Clegg was the perfect candidate. You want to ensure the EU is held in as great a level of contempt as possible. David David would probably go native. Liam Fox is off to NATO. Andrew Mitchell is insufferable. Clegg would ensure nobody took the EU seriously. Plus it would mean that the LibDems were engaged in civil war (Lefties vs Orange Bookers) ahead of the next GE, increasing the chances of Tory gains from the Libs.

    However, I may be over-thinking this :-)
    Is Fox really off to NATO, or is that a rumour being spread only by "friends of" Liam Fox?

  • Mr. 1000, allowing Clegg to return home would give the Lib Dems a golden opportunity to jettison his baggage and go for a nw, more popular leader.

    That could seriously damage Conservative prospects in the south-west. Or, it could make things harder for Labour overall. Tricky to try and predict.
  • OT

    It would be a battle to relish only in terms of observing the scale of the collapse in the Lib Dem vote.
  • antifrank said:

    Look back at Plebgate and you will see Mitchell had no friends or allies in the Whips' Office, Cabinet or backbenches. Clearly the man was no great loss to the diplomatic corps so it seems perverse to nominate him.

    Especially for a job where you have almost no independent power, and your sole ability to get things done relies on your ability to persuade and form consensus among ministers from 28 different countries. Does anyone actually think Mitchell would be good at this?
    As if competence has ever been a requirement for being an EU commissioner.
    TBF the British nominees have a pretty good record. Roy Jenkins, Leon Brittan, Chris Patten, Neil Kinnock, Peter Mandelson, Catherine Ashton: They're all heavyweight politicians, except for Ashton who seems to have turned out well, and I haven't heard of any of them bollocksing the job up particularly.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Look back at Plebgate and you will see Mitchell had no friends or allies in the Whips' Office, Cabinet or backbenches. Clearly the man was no great loss to the diplomatic corps so it seems perverse to nominate him.

    Especially for a job where you have almost no independent power, and your sole ability to get things done relies on your ability to persuade and form consensus among ministers from 28 different countries. Does anyone actually think Mitchell would be good at this?
    He sounds like a shoo-in then...

    Actually, if I were a BOO Conservative, I would have thought Nick Clegg was the perfect candidate. You want to ensure the EU is held in as great a level of contempt as possible. David David would probably go native. Liam Fox is off to NATO. Andrew Mitchell is insufferable. Clegg would ensure nobody took the EU seriously. Plus it would mean that the LibDems were engaged in civil war (Lefties vs Orange Bookers) ahead of the next GE, increasing the chances of Tory gains from the Libs.

    However, I may be over-thinking this :-)
    LibDem civil war and quite possibly a lurch to the left that leaves them fighting for votes with Lab instead of Con, so yeah, it would be excellent strategy for the Tories. If he had the political space to do it Cameron would probably do it, but his backbenchers aren't exactly renowned for the sophistication of their political strategy, and they probably wouldn't be happy...
  • we are currently delivering my latest 4-pager in 3 months to every household

    Nick, what in the name of everything holy do you SAY to them? Four pages is, er, 4 more pages than Labour has policy to fill them!

    Or maybe it is just four pages of saying how very, very sorry you were for screwing up Britain last time?
    Literally months went by on here while Conservatives decried Ed's policies as Marxism. Now you say he has no policies. Marxism or none? Which is it?
  • antifrank said:

    Look back at Plebgate and you will see Mitchell had no friends or allies in the Whips' Office, Cabinet or backbenches. Clearly the man was no great loss to the diplomatic corps so it seems perverse to nominate him.

    Especially for a job where you have almost no independent power, and your sole ability to get things done relies on your ability to persuade and form consensus among ministers from 28 different countries. Does anyone actually think Mitchell would be good at this?
    As if competence has ever been a requirement for being an EU commissioner.
    TBF the British nominees have a pretty good record. Roy Jenkins, Leon Brittan, Chris Patten, Neil Kinnock, Peter Mandelson, Catherine Ashton: They're all heavyweight politicians, except for Ashton who seems to have turned out well, and I haven't heard of any of them bollocksing the job up particularly.
    Why do you think Baroness Ashton has turned out well? The EU has hardly covered itself in glory on foreign policy matters and has royally messed up its handling of Ukraine, the one major challenge it had on its doorstep on her watch.
  • antifrank said:

    Look back at Plebgate and you will see Mitchell had no friends or allies in the Whips' Office, Cabinet or backbenches. Clearly the man was no great loss to the diplomatic corps so it seems perverse to nominate him.

    Especially for a job where you have almost no independent power, and your sole ability to get things done relies on your ability to persuade and form consensus among ministers from 28 different countries. Does anyone actually think Mitchell would be good at this?
    As if competence has ever been a requirement for being an EU commissioner.
    TBF the British nominees have a pretty good record. Roy Jenkins, Leon Brittan, Chris Patten, Neil Kinnock, Peter Mandelson, Catherine Ashton: They're all heavyweight politicians, except for Ashton who seems to have turned out well, and I haven't heard of any of them bollocksing the job up particularly.
    A motley crew of rejects, second-raters and one absolute non-entity.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    On friday I posited the position of the coalition after the floods and concluded that the South-West of England will never forgive this collection of politicians for their evident failures and neglect.

    The same thing is now happening in the Thames Valley. The cries of anger and disgust on the BBC and Sky this morning is only yet a shadow of those further west, but it is rising now to cast a dark stain on this government. While some may forgive, they won't forget in a hurry.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    MikeK said:

    On friday I posited the position of the coalition after the floods and concluded that the South-West of England will never forgive this collection of politicians for their evident failures and neglect.

    The same thing is now happening in the Thames Valley. The cries of anger and disgust on the BBC and Sky this morning is only yet a shadow of those further west, but it is rising now to cast a dark stain on this government. While some may forgive, they won't forget in a hurry.

    Although it could swing one of two ways:

    (a) the government has been negligent
    or
    (b) climate change is real

    Labour has been saying both (a) and (b), so they may be the biggest beneficiaries.
  • AveryLP said:

    AveryLP [6.44, 6.45am - two posts] This assumes that there is no one-time switch from cash spending to card spending. There may not be, of course, but how many of us here are drawing as much cash as we did, say, one, two or even five years ago? Someone should have the numbers (cash in circulation) to hand, I don't.


    This supports DavidL's claims that households have been deleveraging. Net Secured lending has risen but only in the last quarter of 2013, as up 'til then households were paying off more mortgage debt than they were in receipt of new lending. Even so the net rise of 1.9% over two years is minimal.

    With unsecured lending the main change has been an offsetting shift from overdraft finance to credit card lending with very limited net impact. Personal loans have risen this year mainly due to increased finance for new car purchase. The net impact though is of a small reduction in overall unsecured lending.

    More movement on the deposits side though. There has been much talk of consumption being financed by a reduction in the Savings Ratio, but although the BoE figures show movement of funds out of interesting bearing term accounts a very large proportion has gone to the more tax efficient ISA savings products rather than to consumption expenditure.

    All in all these figures show a very healthy (almost too healthy) position in household finances.

    "Cost of Living Crisis"! What cost of living crisis?
    I rather think that these figures could be spun more than one way. To you, they demonstrate economic recovery; to someone else they might demonstrate a widespread fear of bank collapse and therefore a preference to hold cash. Or even both! For example, improved household finances in the London & SE; fear elsewhere.

    It will be interesting to see if there is a significant regional variation in the local elections this coming May. I suggest there will be, with the Tory position unchanged in London & SE and losing seats fairly heavily elsewhere.

  • antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    Look back at Plebgate and you will see Mitchell had no friends or allies in the Whips' Office, Cabinet or backbenches. Clearly the man was no great loss to the diplomatic corps so it seems perverse to nominate him.

    Especially for a job where you have almost no independent power, and your sole ability to get things done relies on your ability to persuade and form consensus among ministers from 28 different countries. Does anyone actually think Mitchell would be good at this?
    As if competence has ever been a requirement for being an EU commissioner.
    TBF the British nominees have a pretty good record. Roy Jenkins, Leon Brittan, Chris Patten, Neil Kinnock, Peter Mandelson, Catherine Ashton: They're all heavyweight politicians, except for Ashton who seems to have turned out well, and I haven't heard of any of them bollocksing the job up particularly.
    Why do you think Baroness Ashton has turned out well? The EU has hardly covered itself in glory on foreign policy matters and has royally messed up its handling of Ukraine, the one major challenge it had on its doorstep on her watch.
    She's spoken of very highly over Iran and Serbia-Kosovo. I don't know the Ukraine situation very well but isn't it too early to tell?
  • rcs1000 said:

    MikeK said:

    On friday I posited the position of the coalition after the floods and concluded that the South-West of England will never forgive this collection of politicians for their evident failures and neglect.

    The same thing is now happening in the Thames Valley. The cries of anger and disgust on the BBC and Sky this morning is only yet a shadow of those further west, but it is rising now to cast a dark stain on this government. While some may forgive, they won't forget in a hurry.

    Although it could swing one of two ways:

    (a) the government has been negligent
    or
    (b) climate change is real

    Labour has been saying both (a) and (b), so they may be the biggest beneficiaries.
    And the new Labour administration in 2015 will be different? Is spending money on flood defences in Labour's manifesto?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    Look back at Plebgate and you will see Mitchell had no friends or allies in the Whips' Office, Cabinet or backbenches. Clearly the man was no great loss to the diplomatic corps so it seems perverse to nominate him.

    Especially for a job where you have almost no independent power, and your sole ability to get things done relies on your ability to persuade and form consensus among ministers from 28 different countries. Does anyone actually think Mitchell would be good at this?
    As if competence has ever been a requirement for being an EU commissioner.
    TBF the British nominees have a pretty good record. Roy Jenkins, Leon Brittan, Chris Patten, Neil Kinnock, Peter Mandelson, Catherine Ashton: They're all heavyweight politicians, except for Ashton who seems to have turned out well, and I haven't heard of any of them bollocksing the job up particularly.
    Why do you think Baroness Ashton has turned out well?
    She's generally credited for having established an EU foreign service pretty much from scratch (if people dont like that accept it was her job to do it!). She emerged with a huge amount of credit from the Iran talks. Her work on Kosovo was so well regarded she's apparently been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize. I dont think her remit included negotiating with Ukraine (that was more Fule?) but even if it did I dont think she can be blamed for their messy politics.

    For someone who was so abused on appointment I think she has a fair bit to be smug about now that her term is apparently coming to a close.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Lansley ? Can't see it - a total non appointment resulting in a silly b/e ? Not very clever.

    Still if it gives the haters a moment with their Kleenex then carry on..
  • Dave's timeshare sales speech is already the digital equivalent of chip papers. Only one speech last week that'll have any effect on the referendum, by someone who usually has 'disgraced ex msp' prefixed to his name when mentioned by the mighty organs of our press

    http://tinyurl.com/pqe9nsf


    BTW Monica, how many sweaties have you phoned to persuade to stay in the Union?
    It's pathetic to see a one time militant international socialist reduced to such vulgar nationalism. A chancer.
  • Mr. Neil, the Peace Prize has been significantly devalued lately. The EU got it whilst Greeks rioted againt the 'Nazi' Merkel, and Obama got it for not being George W Bush [I am also not George W Bush, but didn't even get a nomination].
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    Patrick said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MikeK said:

    On friday I posited the position of the coalition after the floods and concluded that the South-West of England will never forgive this collection of politicians for their evident failures and neglect.

    The same thing is now happening in the Thames Valley. The cries of anger and disgust on the BBC and Sky this morning is only yet a shadow of those further west, but it is rising now to cast a dark stain on this government. While some may forgive, they won't forget in a hurry.

    Although it could swing one of two ways:

    (a) the government has been negligent
    or
    (b) climate change is real

    Labour has been saying both (a) and (b), so they may be the biggest beneficiaries.
    And the new Labour administration in 2015 will be different? Is spending money on flood defences in Labour's manifesto?
    I am not here to attack or to defend the Labour Party. I am merely pointing out that they are uniquely positioned to say:

    "Of course, those Tories were incompetent and failed to do enough about potential floods. What's worse, those Tories and UKIP are in denial about climate change. That flood outside, that's clear and incontrovertible proof that global warming is real. If you want to get flooded again, vote Conservative or UKIP. If you want to be safe and happy, vote Labour."

  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    rcs1000 said:

    MikeK said:

    On friday I posited the position of the coalition after the floods and concluded that the South-West of England will never forgive this collection of politicians for their evident failures and neglect.

    The same thing is now happening in the Thames Valley. The cries of anger and disgust on the BBC and Sky this morning is only yet a shadow of those further west, but it is rising now to cast a dark stain on this government. While some may forgive, they won't forget in a hurry.

    Although it could swing one of two ways:

    (a) the government has been negligent
    or
    (b) climate change is real

    Labour has been saying both (a) and (b), so they may be the biggest beneficiaries.
    Option (a) is going to happen, and perhaps with more justification than sometimes, but fundamentally would always happen regardless of the quality of the government's response. That's just the peril of being in government when something bad happens.

    Option (b) is more interesting. A greater acceptance of man-made climate change is still unlikely to lead to massive public support for low-carbon policies (etc) because of the global nature of the problem, and the reluctance of your average voter to take any personal pain to solve a wider problem. The desired response from government isn't more windmills, but better flood defences (regardless of whether that actually works).

    Where it may get interesting is if the accusation can be made that this government has cut funding for schemes to mitigate the harmful impacts of climate change because of the extreme ideological positions of some Tory politicians who will not admit the climate is changing and therefore deprioritise spending to combat its impact. Provided there are no embarrassing skeletons in the closet, Labour should go with this line - there's clearly evidence of cuts to flood defence schemes, and accussing the Tories of being more interested in ideology than protecting people's homes is a tabloid-friendly message.
This discussion has been closed.