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How punters now see the next election – politicalbetting.com
How punters now see the next election – politicalbetting.com
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How punters now see the next election – politicalbetting.com
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It might not happen, but well, well over a 66% chance of happening.
Unfortunately TMV means it might not be worth betting on so much though.
Similarly laying Conservative most votes. That should be low single digits but at 10% inflation its not worth laying it.
For all the fun and excitement about Uxbridge (what is it with lefties and self flagellation? At least the right know to pay for it and keep the economy moving) the big picture is that the polls are overall about right. Lots of strongly felt "we can't have five more years of this", a less strongly felt "if it has to be Starmer, hey ho". Coupled with the revival of the Lib Lab Tactical Tag Team, that means that Rishi needs an awfully big event to turn a bad defeat into a mere defeat.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Smog_of_London
Jeremy is of course going to have to test his mettle in the Mayoral run (He may not have worked this out himself yet, but it's blindingly obvious)
Firstly a few facts. Turkey has more military ships in the black sea than Russia. It is little more than 100 miles from Odesa to the Romanian aka Nato coastline. So are we really saying that shipping in the black sea is going to be paralysed because Putin doesn't give it his permission? Now the Ukrainians have (not unwisely) responded in kind by saying that they would consider Russian cargo ships as possible military vehicles. There is the potential for wide scale famine in Africa. The inflation problem may be harder to solve at home. Are we really going to be resigned to this because of Russia's half arsed navy who daren't go too near the Ukrainian coastline.
Feeble. Let us hope some thinking is actually going on behind the scenes.
Key dates for Trump next year
15 January: Republican voters will begin the state-by-state process of picking their party's presidential nominee in so-called primary elections, the first one being in Iowa
5 March: Super Tuesday, when voters in 14 states, including California and Texas, go to the polls. The nominee will probably be unofficially confirmed at this point
20 May: Mr Trump's criminal trial in classified documents case begins in Florida
15-18 July: The Republican National Convention - to formally crown the party's presidential nominee - takes place in Milwaukee, Wisconsin
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-66272153
Finding 1 person on the jury not wanting to convict the presumptive nominee (assuming for sake of argument a good case) should be interesting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UnFlsjhpGfw
And I’ve heard it called that
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3hiF-Zjn2fw
“When are you back in The Smoke?”
That kinda thing
The nearest equivalent is “Blighty”
He could win as Mayor and have 4 years, but he's not going to win running in Islington to be an MP, and even if he does he's in nowhere-land.
It's only been Ukraine who have been willing to stand up to Russia, and the West have been generally ashamed into action to support them by their fine example.
I think that if Turkish warships escorted grain ships to and from Ukrainian ports that the Russian bluff would be called. This seems unlikely to be attempted.
Perhaps Ukraine, with their maritime drones and anti-ship missiles, will achieve enough success against the Russian navy to force a resumption of the grain deal. Russia seems to be attempting to do enough damage to Ukrainian ports that it would be difficult for Ukraine to resume exports if the deal were renewed, which perhaps suggests a certain lack of confidence in their ability to maintain a blockade.
HMS Prince of Wales returns to water after nine months of repairs
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-66274118
8 million people, all arseholes? Really?
It could, but hope springs eternal so I cannot see him not delaying for something, anything, to turn things around.
And I'm a Londoner.
"Blighty" I use but ironically, always to mean England not Britain or GB. Scotland's not in Blighty FFS.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chief-diversity-officer-cdo-business-corporations-e110a82f
"The Rise and Fall of the Chief Diversity Officer"
The LDs were severely burned by Coalition 1.0 with the Conservatives - I'm not even sure they'd go for C&S for a minority Labour Government.
It'll be interesting if U&SR triggers any kind of polling revival for the Conservatives - Monday's Redfield & Wilton will be interesting.
U&SR was probably a very hard ask for Labour given the solid nature of the local Conservative vote in the north part of Hillingdon. It's an example of both volatility and resilience and a reminder uniform UNS is as reliable as sub samples. We know there are areas where the Conservative vote is more resilient and these islands of Conservative strength ensure a) there can't be an extinction event for the party but b) there are other areas where a large majority doesn't mean security if that majority is built on sand.
Let's be ballsy on Lib Dem seats and move them up to 50. (I don't think they'll do that well.) Same for SNP- they're not going to get 50, but a hung parliament needs lots of small party seats. 19 in NI plus one for luck. That's 120 seats not held by the big two, which is crazy high. That leaves Lab + Con = 530.
If Labour get to 320, they can survive without a deal. That requires the Conservatives to have 210 seats- any fewer than that and Labour can run a single party government by default. Turn the LD and SNP scores down to something realistic and the Conservative target goes higher.
Of course the Conservative position can improve over the next year and a bit. But it needs to swing back a lot, or Labour get a majority more or less by default. And the range where there are enough Lib Dems MPs to be significant but few enough that the Conservatives are a real threat isn't a large one.
Doubt Tory-Labour will shift much in the short term. At least until the next big event which is probably the party conferences unless there’s a scandal in August.
He's probably won't do any better next year. Holding on, hoping something will turn up, has its attractions versus biting the bullet. But it isn't fifteen times more attractive. There is a randomness to this that the odds don't take into account.
If you run into an asshole in the morning, you ran into an asshole. If you run into assholes all day, you're the asshole.
Note for starters, the Bush/Obama interactions after latter's election, were very conscious counter-point to the less-than-positive welcome tendered to Bushies in 2001 by Clintonistas in West Wing, featuring snarky notes left on desks for the new team. And just as snarky publicizing of same by W's bunch.
Hardly surprising following the 2000 election crisis, but hardly edifying either, on either side.
Fast-forward to 2008, when W is leaving office with little left of his former popularity. And bad taste in his mouth from being 2nd-banana to Dick Cheney for eight years. Indeed, with Bush blaming his VP for the public souring on him and him.
So W had every incentive to play nice. Especially methinks, since his daughter Jenna was embarking upon a media career, that continues to this day, as a regular on US morning TV.
And also keep in mind, that the Bushes and Obamas belong, along with the Carters, to a VERY exclusive club: former POTUS and FLOTUS.
A club from which Mr & Mrs Trump, despite their ostensible qualifications, have very clearly been blackballed.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jul/21/dan-wootton-catfishing-gb-news-tabloid-celebrities
Not that I think a hung parliament is at all likely.
If anyone is especially bored - there's a nice add-on for an rpi (works with a zero so fairly cheap) :
https://shop.pimoroni.com/products/enviro?variant=31155658457171
Gives you some nice graphs of gas/particulates/etc in your environment :
I know the last one was Dec but the circumstances were exceptional and the weather in mid Dec is generally much better than mid January.
If Rishi hangs on to then it's am act of extreme desperation and the voters will respond by giving Keir a clear majority.
Personally I think we need to invest in clean technologies to replace dirty technologies. Continue flying, driving etc but doing so in a clean eg electric or hydrogen manner that doesn't harm the environment. That investing in science and technology and encouraging people to make the switch as the alternatives become available is the solution.
Other think that "just stopping" investment in jobs that people need in this country, relying on equally or more polluting imports they themselves can easily afford from other countries instead, and taxing travel so that proles don't get in the way can't afford travel, but they themselves can continue to afford first class/business travel as and when they want it, is the solution instead.
Now personally I think the former is a sensible, scientific solution for what is a serious scientific problem, while the latter is just unscientific gibberish, deeply regressive and ugly hypocrisy and should be called out for what it is.
Is there a market on whether Sunak is replaced before the GE? If there is, how do the 2 correlate?
https://youtu.be/qU5ftzDJ4X4
The Kinks / Big Black Smoke
Edit: @OnlyLivingBoy - where do you count as the Southeast? I'd agree if you said London and the wider area around it, maybe 50 miles radius or something like that, is a relatively unfriendly place. London is friendlier than a few ultra-arsehole stockbroker-type places outside the official GL area I suppose.
I'd note one more difference between 2000 and 2008 that you hadn't noted. In 2008 not only was the election result itself hardly edifying but Clinton was probably quite disappointed his running mate lost.
In 2008 on the other hand, Bush had no such connection or love for McCain, so his parties defeat was probably much less personal to him as he retired from politics than it had been for Bill Clinton.
He will probably survive as PM not so much because of any love for him, but because there's no major alternative and the Party is increasingly resigned to defeat anyway. But his survival to the next election is far from guaranteed, so a proxy for him not surviving is not unreasonable.
After the GE though, let's see!
Whilst I absolutely agree we should 'invest in clean technologies to replace dirty technologies', we should in parallel also encourage people to reduce their carbon footprint in the interim, while those new technologies come to fruition.
While on other hand Bill believed Al was (almost) as politically inept as Hillary.
As for your first point, concur.
Though do note, that one of the secrets of Trump's political appeal, is that he does NOT play the Gracious Stateman game. Which increasing numbers of Americans - and not just MAGAmaniacs - have concluded is a con-game benefiting professional politicos. With the people as the saps holding the bag. Sad but true.
Nice guys, we had a good chat. They'd bought some of my Dad's old furniture to furnish their new place and had come to collect it.
(*There are exceptions: I have always found rural North Wales to be particularly unfriendly. Sorry but that's how it always seems to me.)
(By the way, did you see my reply to your question about France?)