In general HYUFD makes a considerable contribution to this site. He is very knowledgeable on politics. He argues his case strongly and consistently and without getting aggressive even against often aggressive opponents.
👍
Sometimes he shows a great sense of humour too.
You have to have a sense of humour to be a CON supporter nowadays!
Congratulations to @HYUFD who said the conservatives would hold Uxbridge
Also a lot of humble pie is needed by all those who dismissed ULEZ as an issue
In the wider context the war against the car is not labour's friend
I'm still not convinced by ULEZ as an issue in London - in a few outer seats, maybe, and imo not in the mayoral election.
However it remains that around 90% of vehicles are *already* compliant, so the number of voters actually affected will be very small. Not sure how it will play electorally - we'll see. I don't see it saving Tory bacon - the outraged gammon vote in Outer London is not imo dominant enough.
Perhaps it's more interesting in the other cities which are introducing Low Emission Zones across the country. Those places where there has not been investment in public transport are perhaps exposed, though there's not a clear correlation.
This is a 2021 graphic, so it may have changed a little.
I think it is the first evidence that the war on cars may not play into labour's hands
It certainly played a part in Uxbridge and already we see calls to move the 2030 deadline for all new cars to be EV and here in Wales we have Drakeford cancelling all new road building, including the 3rd Menai crossing notwithstanding Holyhead is to become a free port, and the ideological change of all 30mph zones in Wales to 20mph by default
It will be interesting how this plays out over the next 15 months
Remember what happens when labour ignore WVM
Isn't that a teeny weeny bit depressing, though?
After all, most of those measures are about reducing the harms that cars do. ULEZ attempts to deal with some specific localised air pollution. Reducing speed limits makes accidents less likely and less harmful. That sort of thing. Tilting the balance between the benefits drivers get from driving and the costs that society pays.
One lesson of Uxbridge is that, at least in some seats, that's politically unacceptable. And whilst there's something in the "wrong moment" argument, the experience is that car restraint measures are rarely popular in advance. And there are plenty of other measures that any government is going to have to take in the next few years.
Are will still so pampered as a nation that we're going to spit out any nasty medicine?
Reducing speed limits is inconveniencing and foolhardy. 30mph away from residential/school zones is a reasonably safe, balanced speed limit.
Cutting to 20 in residential streets where children play on the road, or in actual school zones, may make sense but as a general rule of thumb everywhere? No, absolutely not.
And as for cancelling all road building? No, eliminating transportation is not a good idea in any circumstances - and its harmful for public transportation too, considering the #1 form of public transportation in most of the country is not trains or trams, its buses. And what do buses drive upon?
Meanwhile Sir John Curtice tells Nick Robinson that the overnight results show the Tories are a long way behind, declining their vote by a greater margin than the opinion polls show...
Nobody can deny that it was a poor night but Uxbridge was unexpected, despite @HYUFD predictions, and for Sunak it must be a relief as he goes into recess
We are still 15 months away from a GE and events happen, including what happens in Scotland to the SNP
I think many of us have vat-sized popcorn buckets awaiting eating as we await nippie news on that latter point.
You have to accept though that it is going to take something extraordinary to turn this around for the Tories. Everything is possible in politics! It's just increasingly unlikely...
Indeed and I do not think that is disputed
The only question seems whether Starmer can achieve a working majority
FWIW, the average swing from Con to Lab across the three was 13.5%, and the average from Con to Lib Dem was 13%.
Suggests a very heavy defeat but not a wipeout.
I think the swings at the next election will be so all over the shop that uniform swing will be pretty much useless. Hard to predict…
I think my takeaway is it's impossible to see how the Conservatives can attract enough voters to be the largest party, but it's clear Starmer is struggling to win enough votes in the right places to be confident of winning even a small majority.
But - as I've always thought that confirmation bias applies.
So Labour win Selby, the LDs won Somerton but the Tories hold Uxbridge. Who could possibly have predicted that result? Oh yes, me!
You did, and credit where it's due.
Did you see that John Curtice clip? Whilst you called this right, you called your party doing *worse* than the opinion polls show.
Curtice made another interesting point. Your win in Uxbridge was essentially an opposition campaign. As the party in government, what other issues can you oppose...?
Congratulations to HYUFD for calling it right. Credit where its due, and I hope people followed him on his betting tips - I did not, I thought he was hopecasting and I was wrong and he was right. Well done. 👍
So Labour win Selby, the LDs won Somerton but the Tories hold Uxbridge. Who could possibly have predicted that result? Oh yes, me!
You did, and credit where it's due.
Did you see that John Curtice clip? Whilst you called this right, you called your party doing *worse* than the opinion polls show.
Curtice made another interesting point. Your win in Uxbridge was essentially an opposition campaign. As the party in government, what other issues can you oppose...?
Congratulations to @HYUFD who said the conservatives would hold Uxbridge
Also a lot of humble pie is needed by all those who dismissed ULEZ as an issue
In the wider context the war against the car is not labour's friend
I'm still not convinced by ULEZ as an issue in London - in a few outer seats, maybe, and imo not in the mayoral election.
However it remains that around 90% of vehicles are *already* compliant, so the number of voters actually affected will be very small. Not sure how it will play electorally - we'll see. I don't see it saving Tory bacon - the outraged gammon vote in Outer London is not imo dominant enough.
Perhaps it's more interesting in the other cities which are introducing Low Emission Zones across the country. Those places where there has not been investment in public transport are perhaps exposed, though there's not a clear correlation.
This is a 2021 graphic, so it may have changed a little.
I think it is the first evidence that the war on cars may not play into labour's hands
It certainly played a part in Uxbridge and already we see calls to move the 2030 deadline for all new cars to be EV and here in Wales we have Drakeford cancelling all new road building, including the 3rd Menai crossing notwithstanding Holyhead is to become a free port, and the ideological change of all 30mph zones in Wales to 20mph by default
It will be interesting how this plays out over the next 15 months
Remember what happens when labour ignore WVM
An urban speed limit of 20 mph in Wales is a lot like ULEZ expansion. It isn't the principle that is wrong, it is the speed and lack of thought in which it is being implemented.
Transport policy is a disaster nationally. There are too many cars, not enough infrastructure (including alternative transport). Driving anywhere is horrendous, particularly in cities. Now that the current Government in Westminster have learned anti - green, anti- safety issues win votes, it is a situation that will undoubtedly get worse.
This is the BS.
Driving anywhere, except a tiny minority of the country in inner cities, is pleasant and convenient. Not horrendous.
Driving is the most freeing, the most liberating, the most self-controlled means of transportation people have in the modern, developed world.
Relying upon others, on 'public transportation' is a farce and a pathetic joke outside of a tiny number of metropolises, and it always will be.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with private transportation. Either environmentally, once we switch to clean technologies, or progressively, or for a matter of convenience.
Personally, I find driving a car is shit everywhere. A bicycle is way more enjoyable.
Nothing wrong environmentally if we pretend hard enough.
I know you like to be the king of wishful thinking, but isn't this a bit much eve for you?
Congratulations to @HYUFD who said the conservatives would hold Uxbridge
Also a lot of humble pie is needed by all those who dismissed ULEZ as an issue
In the wider context the war against the car is not labour's friend
I'm still not convinced by ULEZ as an issue in London - in a few outer seats, maybe, and imo not in the mayoral election.
However it remains that around 90% of vehicles are *already* compliant, so the number of voters actually affected will be very small. Not sure how it will play electorally - we'll see. I don't see it saving Tory bacon - the outraged gammon vote in Outer London is not imo dominant enough.
Perhaps it's more interesting in the other cities which are introducing Low Emission Zones across the country. Those places where there has not been investment in public transport are perhaps exposed, though there's not a clear correlation.
This is a 2021 graphic, so it may have changed a little.
I think it is the first evidence that the war on cars may not play into labour's hands
It certainly played a part in Uxbridge and already we see calls to move the 2030 deadline for all new cars to be EV and here in Wales we have Drakeford cancelling all new road building, including the 3rd Menai crossing notwithstanding Holyhead is to become a free port, and the ideological change of all 30mph zones in Wales to 20mph by default
It will be interesting how this plays out over the next 15 months
Remember what happens when labour ignore WVM
An urban speed limit of 20 mph in Wales is a lot like ULEZ expansion. It isn't the principle that is wrong, it is the speed and lack of thought in which it is being implemented.
Transport policy is a disaster nationally. There are too many cars, not enough infrastructure (including alternative transport). Driving anywhere is horrendous, particularly in cities. Now that the current Government in Westminster have learned anti - green, anti- safety issues win votes, it is a situation that will undoubtedly get worse.
This is the BS.
Driving anywhere, except a tiny minority of the country in inner cities, is pleasant and convenient. Not horrendous.
Driving is the most freeing, the most liberating, the most self-controlled means of transportation people have in the modern, developed world.
Relying upon others, on 'public transportation' is a farce and a pathetic joke outside of a tiny number of metropolises, and it always will be.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with private transportation. Either environmentally, once we switch to clean technologies, or progressively, or for a matter of convenience.
You are talking s***e as usual.
As someone who does 30,000 miles a year I take no s*** from a Sunday driver. I can tell you my worst blackspots. M42 around Solihull. M6 Junction 9 to the M54, the entire M25., the Brynglas Tunnel. I wouldn't dream of driving in central London anymore, Birmingham, an hour from Bristol Street to the M5. I could go on all day. If one needs to make an appointment one cannot rely on the motorcar, and use a smart motorway and if there has been an accident one can be, one, two, three hours late.
It is not the golden age of motoring, that is long gone.
Meanwhile Sir John Curtice tells Nick Robinson that the overnight results show the Tories are a long way behind, declining their vote by a greater margin than the opinion polls show...
Nobody can deny that it was a poor night but Uxbridge was unexpected, despite @HYUFD predictions, and for Sunak it must be a relief as he goes into recess
We are still 15 months away from a GE and events happen, including what happens in Scotland to the SNP
I think many of us have vat-sized popcorn buckets awaiting eating as we await nippie news on that latter point.
You have to accept though that it is going to take something extraordinary to turn this around for the Tories. Everything is possible in politics! It's just increasingly unlikely...
Indeed and I do not think that is disputed
The only question seems whether Starmer can achieve a working majority
I think he will and quite comfortably. The tide has swept so hard against the Tories that it's difficult to see how they can turn that tide to start flowing in their direction. They under-performed even their dire polling in these 3 by-elections.
What continues to be missing from Labour is what they are for. If Starmer is sensible he will flesh out his 5 missions - give a sense of purpose about what his government stands for. Then again, many of the people who persuaded Ed that the Ed Stone was a good idea are still around...
So Labour win Selby, the LDs won Somerton but the Tories hold Uxbridge. Who could possibly have predicted that result? Oh yes, me!
You did, and credit where it's due.
Did you see that John Curtice clip? Whilst you called this right, you called your party doing *worse* than the opinion polls show.
Curtice made another interesting point. Your win in Uxbridge was essentially an opposition campaign. As the party in government, what other issues can you oppose...?
The Government can oppose the Opposition who will be seeking to become the next Government at the election.
Make it a referendum on "do you want them" rather than "do you still want us".
Hardly an original concept, and pretty much why swingback exists.
The danger for Labour is their support may currently be a mile wide, but an inch deep.
Congratulations to HYUFD for calling it right. Credit where its due, and I hope people followed him on his betting tips - I did not, I thought he was hopecasting and I was wrong and he was right. Well done. 👍
Indeed.
On Monday I was told by somebody who I trust that Labour were more confident on winning Selby than Uxbridge, I had my doubts, but still stuck some on the Tories to win at circa 9/1.
Meanwhile Sir John Curtice tells Nick Robinson that the overnight results show the Tories are a long way behind, declining their vote by a greater margin than the opinion polls show...
Nobody can deny that it was a poor night but Uxbridge was unexpected, despite @HYUFD predictions, and for Sunak it must be a relief as he goes into recess
We are still 15 months away from a GE and events happen, including what happens in Scotland to the SNP
Hopefully Uxbridge will encourage Tory complacency. Brunel university being out of term will have helped them too.
What was the swing in Uxbridge? 6.7% from 2019. So if you apply that as UNS on electoral calculus on the new boundaries that gives you Lab largest party and 15 short of a majority. That’s without any SNP losses and no tactical voting.
So a Labour majority is quite possible even with Uxbridge-style swing.
So Labour win Selby, the LDs won Somerton but the Tories hold Uxbridge. Who could possibly have predicted that result? Oh yes, me!
You did, and credit where it's due.
Did you see that John Curtice clip? Whilst you called this right, you called your party doing *worse* than the opinion polls show.
Curtice made another interesting point. Your win in Uxbridge was essentially an opposition campaign. As the party in government, what other issues can you oppose...?
Well it’s pretty simply really. If you believe the polls then if Labour isn’t as strong in Uxbridge then they will consequently be stronger elsewhere. I doubt that will be in the rest of Greater London and other major cities (relative to the last election) due to the “Keir is a tory” effect.
So where is the strength? Everywhere else. Unless the polls are wrong.
One observation I have made is that in Selby and Somerton, Labour and the Lib Dems were able to increase the absolute number of votes they received compared to the general election, but in Uxbridge Labour weren't able even to turn out the voters who had voted for them in 2019.
There's a couple of explanations you can offer for this.
The more pro-Labour argument is that Uxbridge is different because so much of the Labour vote in 2019 was motivated as an anti-Boris Johnson vote, and so the baseline was artificially high.
The more pro-Tory argument is that if they can find the right issue to hammer home for each constituency or voter, then they can convince voters to vote on fear of Labour policy, rather than on anger at Tory failure.
Also, Khan appears to be a liability for Labour and they should find a replacement, otherwise the Tories have a decent chance of winning the Mayoral election once Labour are in government in Westminster.
I do wonder why the odds were so mispriced on Uxbridge. The local election results were dire in most of London in 2022 - but not in Uxbridge.
I suspect we expected long- Johnson to drag Labour over the line. HYUFD has been inspiring this week. If anyone took his advice and bet accordingly they owe him a drink.
I'd be entirely happy to make a donation to a charity of his choice, if he wishes.
The Boris Johnson Preservation Society?
Just send the cash directly to the taxidermist, cut out the middle men….?
Congratulations to @HYUFD who said the conservatives would hold Uxbridge
Also a lot of humble pie is needed by all those who dismissed ULEZ as an issue
In the wider context the war against the car is not labour's friend
I'm still not convinced by ULEZ as an issue in London - in a few outer seats, maybe, and imo not in the mayoral election.
However it remains that around 90% of vehicles are *already* compliant, so the number of voters actually affected will be very small. Not sure how it will play electorally - we'll see. I don't see it saving Tory bacon - the outraged gammon vote in Outer London is not imo dominant enough.
Perhaps it's more interesting in the other cities which are introducing Low Emission Zones across the country. Those places where there has not been investment in public transport are perhaps exposed, though there's not a clear correlation.
This is a 2021 graphic, so it may have changed a little.
I think it is the first evidence that the war on cars may not play into labour's hands
It certainly played a part in Uxbridge and already we see calls to move the 2030 deadline for all new cars to be EV and here in Wales we have Drakeford cancelling all new road building, including the 3rd Menai crossing notwithstanding Holyhead is to become a free port, and the ideological change of all 30mph zones in Wales to 20mph by default
It will be interesting how this plays out over the next 15 months
Remember what happens when labour ignore WVM
An urban speed limit of 20 mph in Wales is a lot like ULEZ expansion. It isn't the principle that is wrong, it is the speed and lack of thought in which it is being implemented.
Transport policy is a disaster nationally. There are too many cars, not enough infrastructure (including alternative transport). Driving anywhere is horrendous, particularly in cities. Now that the current Government in Westminster have learned anti - green, anti- safety issues win votes, it is a situation that will undoubtedly get worse.
This is the BS.
Driving anywhere, except a tiny minority of the country in inner cities, is pleasant and convenient. Not horrendous.
Driving is the most freeing, the most liberating, the most self-controlled means of transportation people have in the modern, developed world.
Relying upon others, on 'public transportation' is a farce and a pathetic joke outside of a tiny number of metropolises, and it always will be.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with private transportation. Either environmentally, once we switch to clean technologies, or progressively, or for a matter of convenience.
You are talking s***e as usual.
As someone who does 30,000 miles a year I take no s*** from a Sunday driver. I can tell you my worst blackspots. M42 around Solihull. M6 Junction 9 to the M54, the entire M25., the Brynglas Tunnel. I wouldn't dream of driving in central London anymore, Birmingham, an hour from Bristol Street to the M5. I could go on all day. If one needs to make an appointment one cannot rely on the motorcar, and use a smart motorway and if there has been an accident one can be, one, two, three hours late.
It is not the golden age of motoring, that is long gone.
You make my point for me. There's a reason you drive 30k miles a year, its because driving works, and nothing else does.
If one needs to make an appointment, the only thing one can rely upon is the motorcar, in almost the entire country.
Yes traffic may be shit in a few places. Shit happens. I can tell you absolutely eg if there's an accident on the M6, or the M56, or the M62 it can lead to sudden gridlock in towns used as a ratrun to avoid the motorway traffic, or worse a motorway closure.
But despite that, its still by far the best option.
The private motorcar, is in almost all circumstances, like democracy. Its the worst option available - except for all other options that have yet been tried.
So Labour win Selby, the LDs won Somerton but the Tories hold Uxbridge. Who could possibly have predicted that result? Oh yes, me!
You did, and credit where it's due.
Did you see that John Curtice clip? Whilst you called this right, you called your party doing *worse* than the opinion polls show.
Curtice made another interesting point. Your win in Uxbridge was essentially an opposition campaign. As the party in government, what other issues can you oppose...?
The Government can oppose the Opposition who will be seeking to become the next Government at the election.
Make it a referendum on "do you want them" rather than "do you still want us".
Hardly an original concept, and pretty much why swingback exists.
The danger for Labour is their support may currently be a mile wide, but an inch deep.
That strategy will hold then 20 of the seats they most need to defend. But ensure they get crushed in the rest. Let's use ULEZ as the example. If Sue Trump now thinks 'lets scrap ULEZ' she will do well in a handful of outer boroughs and get demolished everywhere else.
I do wonder why the odds were so mispriced on Uxbridge. The local election results were dire in most of London in 2022 - but not in Uxbridge.
I suspect we expected long- Johnson to drag Labour over the line. HYUFD has been inspiring this week. If anyone took his advice and bet accordingly they owe him a drink.
I'd be entirely happy to make a donation to a charity of his choice, if he wishes.
The Boris Johnson Preservation Society?
Just send the cash directly to the taxidermist, cut out the middle men….?
I want to express my thanks to HYUFD for his canvassing report.
It prompted me to put £50 on the Conservatives to hold Uxbridge, at 9-1.
Great bet!
My brother who is left-leaning lives in Kingston and he is MEGA pissed off with Sadiq Khan over Ulez. He has, indeed, just had to change his car.
I'm afraid this is what always happens with socialism ...
Was it socialism when Boris dreamt up the ulez?
It's more the way in which socialist regimes have a tendency to impose what they think is best on other people. Hard Left are just as bad as Hard Right. Possibly worse. Although not a socialist, there were elements of this 'we know best for you little people' attitude on display in Tony Blair's Metropolitan elitism.
As you may know, I'm more of an anarchist. Anti-state. Anti-authority.
Then, maybe the more radical wing of the Liberal Democrats is a better fit for you?
She’ll surely be voting tactically for them, in her seat, in any case.
I campaigned in Uxbridge and here's why I think Labour failed to win. 1/ ULEZ - it's a community entirely based around the car and the Tories made it a single issue campaign .... but Labour failed to deal with it coherently from the start...
I do wonder why the odds were so mispriced on Uxbridge. The local election results were dire in most of London in 2022 - but not in Uxbridge.
I suspect we expected long- Johnson to drag Labour over the line. HYUFD has been inspiring this week. If anyone took his advice and bet accordingly they owe him a drink.
I'd be entirely happy to make a donation to a charity of his choice, if he wishes.
The Boris Johnson Preservation Society?
If he's turned into an encapsulated waxwork in Madam Tussauds Chamber of Horrors, I would hvae no objection .
Congratulations to @HYUFD who said the conservatives would hold Uxbridge
Also a lot of humble pie is needed by all those who dismissed ULEZ as an issue
In the wider context the war against the car is not labour's friend
I'm still not convinced by ULEZ as an issue in London - in a few outer seats, maybe, and imo not in the mayoral election.
However it remains that around 90% of vehicles are *already* compliant, so the number of voters actually affected will be very small. Not sure how it will play electorally - we'll see. I don't see it saving Tory bacon - the outraged gammon vote in Outer London is not imo dominant enough.
Perhaps it's more interesting in the other cities which are introducing Low Emission Zones across the country. Those places where there has not been investment in public transport are perhaps exposed, though there's not a clear correlation.
This is a 2021 graphic, so it may have changed a little.
I think it is the first evidence that the war on cars may not play into labour's hands
It certainly played a part in Uxbridge and already we see calls to move the 2030 deadline for all new cars to be EV and here in Wales we have Drakeford cancelling all new road building, including the 3rd Menai crossing notwithstanding Holyhead is to become a free port, and the ideological change of all 30mph zones in Wales to 20mph by default
It will be interesting how this plays out over the next 15 months
Remember what happens when labour ignore WVM
Isn't that a teeny weeny bit depressing, though?
After all, most of those measures are about reducing the harms that cars do. ULEZ attempts to deal with some specific localised air pollution. Reducing speed limits makes accidents less likely and less harmful. That sort of thing. Tilting the balance between the benefits drivers get from driving and the costs that society pays.
One lesson of Uxbridge is that, at least in some seats, that's politically unacceptable. And whilst there's something in the "wrong moment" argument, the experience is that car restraint measures are rarely popular in advance. And there are plenty of other measures that any government is going to have to take in the next few years.
Are will still so pampered as a nation that we're going to spit out any nasty medicine?
The intention of a policy - reduction of pollution - may be good. While the implementation/methodology is bad.
What is politically unacceptable is saying that “those people who are poor and screwed over by this policy - well, the aim of the policy is good. So on consideration, and after some thought FUCK YOU, FUCKERS”.
ULEZ has become, in the eyes of some poorer people, a tax which has little or no cost on the well off. Who own expensive, frequently updated cars. And/Or can afford to life in the areas with the best public transport connections to their white collar jobs and don’t need a vehicle for work.
Something to understand as well. Those with cars in the “next tranche”, that tightening ULEZ will ban, are convinced that the next step is coming very soon and will be done in the same way. So far more than the 10% of car owners with non compliant vehicles are upset about this.
It is perfectly possible to come up with a way to reduce emissions that doesn’t do this. The ULEZ implementation was picked because it was cheap and easy - for the politicians and those running the system. Producer interest vs Consumer.
Congratulations to @HYUFD who said the conservatives would hold Uxbridge
Also a lot of humble pie is needed by all those who dismissed ULEZ as an issue
In the wider context the war against the car is not labour's friend
I'm still not convinced by ULEZ as an issue in London - in a few outer seats, maybe, and imo not in the mayoral election.
However it remains that around 90% of vehicles are *already* compliant, so the number of voters actually affected will be very small. Not sure how it will play electorally - we'll see. I don't see it saving Tory bacon - the outraged gammon vote in Outer London is not imo dominant enough.
Perhaps it's more interesting in the other cities which are introducing Low Emission Zones across the country. Those places where there has not been investment in public transport are perhaps exposed, though there's not a clear correlation.
This is a 2021 graphic, so it may have changed a little.
I think it is the first evidence that the war on cars may not play into labour's hands
It certainly played a part in Uxbridge and already we see calls to move the 2030 deadline for all new cars to be EV and here in Wales we have Drakeford cancelling all new road building, including the 3rd Menai crossing notwithstanding Holyhead is to become a free port, and the ideological change of all 30mph zones in Wales to 20mph by default
It will be interesting how this plays out over the next 15 months
Remember what happens when labour ignore WVM
An urban speed limit of 20 mph in Wales is a lot like ULEZ expansion. It isn't the principle that is wrong, it is the speed and lack of thought in which it is being implemented.
Transport policy is a disaster nationally. There are too many cars, not enough infrastructure (including alternative transport). Driving anywhere is horrendous, particularly in cities. Now that the current Government in Westminster have learned anti - green, anti- safety issues win votes, it is a situation that will undoubtedly get worse.
This is the BS.
Driving anywhere, except a tiny minority of the country in inner cities, is pleasant and convenient. Not horrendous.
Driving is the most freeing, the most liberating, the most self-controlled means of transportation people have in the modern, developed world.
Relying upon others, on 'public transportation' is a farce and a pathetic joke outside of a tiny number of metropolises, and it always will be.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with private transportation. Either environmentally, once we switch to clean technologies, or progressively, or for a matter of convenience.
Personally, I find driving a car is shit everywhere. A bicycle is way more enjoyable.
Nothing wrong environmentally if we pretend hard enough.
I know you like to be the king of wishful thinking, but isn't this a bit much eve for you?
For you, but many of us cannot ride a bicycle due to our age and the car is our only means of independence
I understand why those living in cities, and especially London with its excellent transport facilities, think your way but the vast majority of us do not live in cities
A crumb of comfort for the Tories in Uxbridge . The tactical voting though should really concern them and could add to their loses at the next GE .
There is nothing they can take from Uxbridge for a national campaign though, beyond capitalising on local issues which any sensible candidate will do anyway.
All three by elections were about the cost of living.
Correct. This remains the Number 1 issue for people. Despite one month of moderately encouraging CPI data it is still 4 times the target. Inflation erodes and ultimately destroys people's earnings, pensions and wealth.
So Labour win Selby, the LDs won Somerton but the Tories hold Uxbridge. Who could possibly have predicted that result? Oh yes, me!
You did, and credit where it's due.
Did you see that John Curtice clip? Whilst you called this right, you called your party doing *worse* than the opinion polls show.
Curtice made another interesting point. Your win in Uxbridge was essentially an opposition campaign. As the party in government, what other issues can you oppose...?
The Government can oppose the Opposition who will be seeking to become the next Government at the election.
Make it a referendum on "do you want them" rather than "do you still want us".
Hardly an original concept, and pretty much why swingback exists.
The danger for Labour is their support may currently be a mile wide, but an inch deep.
That strategy will hold then 20 of the seats they most need to defend. But ensure they get crushed in the rest. Let's use ULEZ as the example. If Sue Trump now thinks 'lets scrap ULEZ' she will do well in a handful of outer boroughs and get demolished everywhere else.
To mangle Ronald Reagan - 20 seats here, 20 seats there - soon you're talking real politics.
You don't need to make it about ULEZ nationwide. There will be issues that the public doesn't want the Opposition to do if elected and make it a referendum on that, on different issues in different seats, targeting the demographics, and it can work.
I don't think it will, because I think the public have had enough of the Government and I don't think this Government is confident or competent enough to win. But I didn't think they'd hold onto Uxbridge, so I might be wrong here too - its certainly not outwith the realms of possibility.
Congratulations to @HYUFD who said the conservatives would hold Uxbridge
Also a lot of humble pie is needed by all those who dismissed ULEZ as an issue
In the wider context the war against the car is not labour's friend
I'm still not convinced by ULEZ as an issue in London - in a few outer seats, maybe, and imo not in the mayoral election.
However it remains that around 90% of vehicles are *already* compliant, so the number of voters actually affected will be very small. Not sure how it will play electorally - we'll see. I don't see it saving Tory bacon - the outraged gammon vote in Outer London is not imo dominant enough.
Perhaps it's more interesting in the other cities which are introducing Low Emission Zones across the country. Those places where there has not been investment in public transport are perhaps exposed, though there's not a clear correlation.
This is a 2021 graphic, so it may have changed a little.
I think it is the first evidence that the war on cars may not play into labour's hands
It certainly played a part in Uxbridge and already we see calls to move the 2030 deadline for all new cars to be EV and here in Wales we have Drakeford cancelling all new road building, including the 3rd Menai crossing notwithstanding Holyhead is to become a free port, and the ideological change of all 30mph zones in Wales to 20mph by default
It will be interesting how this plays out over the next 15 months
Remember what happens when labour ignore WVM
An urban speed limit of 20 mph in Wales is a lot like ULEZ expansion. It isn't the principle that is wrong, it is the speed and lack of thought in which it is being implemented.
Transport policy is a disaster nationally. There are too many cars, not enough infrastructure (including alternative transport). Driving anywhere is horrendous, particularly in cities. Now that the current Government in Westminster have learned anti - green, anti- safety issues win votes, it is a situation that will undoubtedly get worse.
This is the BS.
Driving anywhere, except a tiny minority of the country in inner cities, is pleasant and convenient. Not horrendous.
Driving is the most freeing, the most liberating, the most self-controlled means of transportation people have in the modern, developed world.
Relying upon others, on 'public transportation' is a farce and a pathetic joke outside of a tiny number of metropolises, and it always will be.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with private transportation. Either environmentally, once we switch to clean technologies, or progressively, or for a matter of convenience.
You are talking s***e as usual.
As someone who does 30,000 miles a year I take no s*** from a Sunday driver. I can tell you my worst blackspots. M42 around Solihull. M6 Junction 9 to the M54, the entire M25., the Brynglas Tunnel. I wouldn't dream of driving in central London anymore, Birmingham, an hour from Bristol Street to the M5. I could go on all day. If one needs to make an appointment one cannot rely on the motorcar, and use a smart motorway and if there has been an accident one can be, one, two, three hours late.
It is not the golden age of motoring, that is long gone.
It’s not too bad on the island, although you do get a bit of a queue sometimes at the roundabout at the end of our only bit of dual carriageway.
By elections confirming trends we've seen in local elections. Tory vote holding up in urban areas. Cratering in rural. Suggests not much UNS and the possibility of some tasty constituency odds. A (very) narrow pathway to Tories largest Party. Hold most urban seats on small swings. Hold most rural seats on much larger ones.
All three results were remarkable. Somerton and Selby for the size of the swing; Uxbridge for the smallness of it.
I think it's an interesting point - with such a large national average swing (based on the polls) we should expect large deviations in the size of swing.
Meanwhile Sir John Curtice tells Nick Robinson that the overnight results show the Tories are a long way behind, declining their vote by a greater margin than the opinion polls show...
Nobody can deny that it was a poor night but Uxbridge was unexpected, despite @HYUFD predictions, and for Sunak it must be a relief as he goes into recess
We are still 15 months away from a GE and events happen, including what happens in Scotland to the SNP
Hopefully Uxbridge will encourage Tory complacency. Brunel university being out of term will have helped them too.
What was the swing in Uxbridge? 6.7% from 2019. So if you apply that as UNS on electoral calculus on the new boundaries that gives you Lab largest party and 15 short of a majority. That’s without any SNP losses and no tactical voting.
So a Labour majority is quite possible even with Uxbridge-style swing.
If anyone is in danger of complacency it is labour, I cannot imagine any conservative is
So Labour win Selby, the LDs won Somerton but the Tories hold Uxbridge. Who could possibly have predicted that result? Oh yes, me!
You did, and credit where it's due.
Did you see that John Curtice clip? Whilst you called this right, you called your party doing *worse* than the opinion polls show.
Curtice made another interesting point. Your win in Uxbridge was essentially an opposition campaign. As the party in government, what other issues can you oppose...?
The Government can oppose the Opposition who will be seeking to become the next Government at the election.
Make it a referendum on "do you want them" rather than "do you still want us".
Hardly an original concept, and pretty much why swingback exists.
The danger for Labour is their support may currently be a mile wide, but an inch deep.
That strategy will hold then 20 of the seats they most need to defend. But ensure they get crushed in the rest. Let's use ULEZ as the example. If Sue Trump now thinks 'lets scrap ULEZ' she will do well in a handful of outer boroughs and get demolished everywhere else.
And Sue Hall will go all in on opposing ULEZ. From the campaigns to become the candidate, that's already clear.
As I've said before, it works in Zone 6, which is about the only place where you still find Conservatives in Greater London. But it turns off voters further in.
And once the scheme is in place, and people have gone to the trouble/expense of adapting, there won't be as many votes in favour of reversal.
All three by elections were about the cost of living.
Correct. This remains the Number 1 issue for people. Despite one month of moderately encouraging CPI data it is still 4 times the target. Inflation erodes and ultimately destroys people's earnings, pensions and wealth.
Not sure LAB have any answers though.
Inflation will drop. So the question is what kind of economy we want after that happens. That is where Labour need to start offering a vision. We know the Tory vision. It will be cruel and divisive and keep dragging deprived areas into further depravity.
But at the moment the Labour vision is.....? Tories will try and claim "Labour will tax and spend" as if that hasn't been the Tory reality. But unless Labour actually set out some big ideas, the agenda can still be manipulated by the Tories and their tabloid spiv mates.
Congratulations to @HYUFD who said the conservatives would hold Uxbridge
Also a lot of humble pie is needed by all those who dismissed ULEZ as an issue
In the wider context the war against the car is not labour's friend
I'm still not convinced by ULEZ as an issue in London - in a few outer seats, maybe, and imo not in the mayoral election.
However it remains that around 90% of vehicles are *already* compliant, so the number of voters actually affected will be very small. Not sure how it will play electorally - we'll see. I don't see it saving Tory bacon - the outraged gammon vote in Outer London is not imo dominant enough.
Perhaps it's more interesting in the other cities which are introducing Low Emission Zones across the country. Those places where there has not been investment in public transport are perhaps exposed, though there's not a clear correlation.
This is a 2021 graphic, so it may have changed a little.
I think it is the first evidence that the war on cars may not play into labour's hands
It certainly played a part in Uxbridge and already we see calls to move the 2030 deadline for all new cars to be EV and here in Wales we have Drakeford cancelling all new road building, including the 3rd Menai crossing notwithstanding Holyhead is to become a free port, and the ideological change of all 30mph zones in Wales to 20mph by default
It will be interesting how this plays out over the next 15 months
Remember what happens when labour ignore WVM
An urban speed limit of 20 mph in Wales is a lot like ULEZ expansion. It isn't the principle that is wrong, it is the speed and lack of thought in which it is being implemented.
Transport policy is a disaster nationally. There are too many cars, not enough infrastructure (including alternative transport). Driving anywhere is horrendous, particularly in cities. Now that the current Government in Westminster have learned anti - green, anti- safety issues win votes, it is a situation that will undoubtedly get worse.
This is the BS.
Driving anywhere, except a tiny minority of the country in inner cities, is pleasant and convenient. Not horrendous.
Driving is the most freeing, the most liberating, the most self-controlled means of transportation people have in the modern, developed world.
Relying upon others, on 'public transportation' is a farce and a pathetic joke outside of a tiny number of metropolises, and it always will be.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with private transportation. Either environmentally, once we switch to clean technologies, or progressively, or for a matter of convenience.
You are talking s***e as usual.
As someone who does 30,000 miles a year I take no s*** from a Sunday driver. I can tell you my worst blackspots. M42 around Solihull. M6 Junction 9 to the M54, the entire M25., the Brynglas Tunnel. I wouldn't dream of driving in central London anymore, Birmingham, an hour from Bristol Street to the M5. I could go on all day. If one needs to make an appointment one cannot rely on the motorcar, and use a smart motorway and if there has been an accident one can be, one, two, three hours late.
It is not the golden age of motoring, that is long gone.
You make my point for me. There's a reason you drive 30k miles a year, its because driving works, and nothing else does.
If one needs to make an appointment, the only thing one can rely upon is the motorcar, in almost the entire country.
Yes traffic may be shit in a few places. Shit happens. I can tell you absolutely eg if there's an accident on the M6, or the M56, or the M62 it can lead to sudden gridlock in towns used as a ratrun to avoid the motorway traffic, or worse a motorway closure.
But despite that, its still by far the best option.
The private motorcar, is in almost all circumstances, like democracy. Its the worst option available - except for all other options that have yet been tried.
But I am telling you it doesn't work. There are too many cars on the road. Private motoring is unsustainable from the practical point of view.
It wasn't like this 50 years ago, although it has been getting considerably worse year on year over the last 40. We are at gridlock. It has to change.
You may enjoy the freedom of the open road from a traffic jam, but I don't.
Congratulations to @HYUFD who said the conservatives would hold Uxbridge
Also a lot of humble pie is needed by all those who dismissed ULEZ as an issue
In the wider context the war against the car is not labour's friend
I'm still not convinced by ULEZ as an issue in London - in a few outer seats, maybe, and imo not in the mayoral election.
However it remains that around 90% of vehicles are *already* compliant, so the number of voters actually affected will be very small. Not sure how it will play electorally - we'll see. I don't see it saving Tory bacon - the outraged gammon vote in Outer London is not imo dominant enough.
Perhaps it's more interesting in the other cities which are introducing Low Emission Zones across the country. Those places where there has not been investment in public transport are perhaps exposed, though there's not a clear correlation.
This is a 2021 graphic, so it may have changed a little.
I think it is the first evidence that the war on cars may not play into labour's hands
It certainly played a part in Uxbridge and already we see calls to move the 2030 deadline for all new cars to be EV and here in Wales we have Drakeford cancelling all new road building, including the 3rd Menai crossing notwithstanding Holyhead is to become a free port, and the ideological change of all 30mph zones in Wales to 20mph by default
It will be interesting how this plays out over the next 15 months
Remember what happens when labour ignore WVM
An urban speed limit of 20 mph in Wales is a lot like ULEZ expansion. It isn't the principle that is wrong, it is the speed and lack of thought in which it is being implemented.
Transport policy is a disaster nationally. There are too many cars, not enough infrastructure (including alternative transport). Driving anywhere is horrendous, particularly in cities. Now that the current Government in Westminster have learned anti - green, anti- safety issues win votes, it is a situation that will undoubtedly get worse.
This is the BS.
Driving anywhere, except a tiny minority of the country in inner cities, is pleasant and convenient. Not horrendous.
Driving is the most freeing, the most liberating, the most self-controlled means of transportation people have in the modern, developed world.
Relying upon others, on 'public transportation' is a farce and a pathetic joke outside of a tiny number of metropolises, and it always will be.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with private transportation. Either environmentally, once we switch to clean technologies, or progressively, or for a matter of convenience.
Personally, I find driving a car is shit everywhere. A bicycle is way more enjoyable.
Nothing wrong environmentally if we pretend hard enough.
I know you like to be the king of wishful thinking, but isn't this a bit much eve for you?
A bicycle is enjoyable for having fun. It is a social activity.
When it comes to moving a serious distance, or moving multiple people a distance, or moving a heavy or bulky quantity of goods - nothing comes close to a private vehicle.
And no pretence necessary. Electric cars are the future, not replacing an eighty mile journey to see relatives with riding a bicycle down the M6.
A massive win in Uxbridge for Rishi. It overshadows the other two. Khan needs to have a rethink too!
It will be interesting which of the three results the media focus on and with their London bias I would expect Uxbridge may well be their choice
Our man on the ground got it right.
I suspect the Uxbridge result is the biggest news story. Nick Ferrari will be having kittens, lucky he's on holiday.
Another take away of course is had Boris Johnson taken his medicine, allowed the recall and fought the seat, he MAY well have been in pole position to condemn Rishi for the losses in Frome and Selby. But alas he didn't have the backbone to fight his corner.
If Boris Johnson had been the candidate then the election would have been about Boris Johnson and not the ULEZ. If the election had been about Boris Johnson and his breaking the Covid rules then Labour would have walked it and the Tories may have come third.
I think the Uxbridge result is also a reminder that campaigns do matter. We often forget this because a lot of the time both campaigns are roughly equally effective, and so the net effect is nearly nil, but there is always the potential for one side or the other to mess it up (May, 2017), or to hit on an issue that resonates with the voters (Uxbridge, 2023).
Team Sunak will now surely believe that if they can find that one killer message, they can win the general election campaign and keep the Tories in government.
Want insight into Labour's narrow failure to take Uxbridge? Read Hillingdon council's case against ULEZ. Here's the argument...we're not like London and the benefits to us are minimal ... 1/
2/ Tories turned an environmental issue into a local democracy and social justice issue - thus dramatising the next 20 years of British politics
Congratulations to @HYUFD who said the conservatives would hold Uxbridge
Also a lot of humble pie is needed by all those who dismissed ULEZ as an issue
In the wider context the war against the car is not labour's friend
I'm still not convinced by ULEZ as an issue in London - in a few outer seats, maybe, and imo not in the mayoral election.
However it remains that around 90% of vehicles are *already* compliant, so the number of voters actually affected will be very small. Not sure how it will play electorally - we'll see. I don't see it saving Tory bacon - the outraged gammon vote in Outer London is not imo dominant enough.
Perhaps it's more interesting in the other cities which are introducing Low Emission Zones across the country. Those places where there has not been investment in public transport are perhaps exposed, though there's not a clear correlation.
This is a 2021 graphic, so it may have changed a little.
I think it is the first evidence that the war on cars may not play into labour's hands
It certainly played a part in Uxbridge and already we see calls to move the 2030 deadline for all new cars to be EV and here in Wales we have Drakeford cancelling all new road building, including the 3rd Menai crossing notwithstanding Holyhead is to become a free port, and the ideological change of all 30mph zones in Wales to 20mph by default
It will be interesting how this plays out over the next 15 months
Remember what happens when labour ignore WVM
An urban speed limit of 20 mph in Wales is a lot like ULEZ expansion. It isn't the principle that is wrong, it is the speed and lack of thought in which it is being implemented.
Transport policy is a disaster nationally. There are too many cars, not enough infrastructure (including alternative transport). Driving anywhere is horrendous, particularly in cities. Now that the current Government in Westminster have learned anti - green, anti- safety issues win votes, it is a situation that will undoubtedly get worse.
This is the BS.
Driving anywhere, except a tiny minority of the country in inner cities, is pleasant and convenient. Not horrendous.
Driving is the most freeing, the most liberating, the most self-controlled means of transportation people have in the modern, developed world.
Relying upon others, on 'public transportation' is a farce and a pathetic joke outside of a tiny number of metropolises, and it always will be.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with private transportation. Either environmentally, once we switch to clean technologies, or progressively, or for a matter of convenience.
You are talking s***e as usual.
As someone who does 30,000 miles a year I take no s*** from a Sunday driver. I can tell you my worst blackspots. M42 around Solihull. M6 Junction 9 to the M54, the entire M25., the Brynglas Tunnel. I wouldn't dream of driving in central London anymore, Birmingham, an hour from Bristol Street to the M5. I could go on all day. If one needs to make an appointment one cannot rely on the motorcar, and use a smart motorway and if there has been an accident one can be, one, two, three hours late.
It is not the golden age of motoring, that is long gone.
You make my point for me. There's a reason you drive 30k miles a year, its because driving works, and nothing else does.
If one needs to make an appointment, the only thing one can rely upon is the motorcar, in almost the entire country.
Yes traffic may be shit in a few places. Shit happens. I can tell you absolutely eg if there's an accident on the M6, or the M56, or the M62 it can lead to sudden gridlock in towns used as a ratrun to avoid the motorway traffic, or worse a motorway closure.
But despite that, its still by far the best option.
The private motorcar, is in almost all circumstances, like democracy. Its the worst option available - except for all other options that have yet been tried.
But I am telling you it doesn't work. There are too many cars on the road. Private motoring is unsustainable from the practical point of view.
It wasn't like this 50 years ago, although it has been getting considerably worse year on year over the last 40. We are at gridlock. It has to change.
You may enjoy the freedom of the open road from a traffic jam, but I don't.
Here's a novel solution - build more roads.
If roads are at capacity, build extra capacity. Same as any other transportation.
Build new motorways, new roads, wider roads, extra lanes, new bridges - whatever is required.
Yes there's extra people on the roads, that's because *drumroll* there's extra people in the country. We used to have 50 million people in the country, we now have 70 million, but where's the new motorway capacity that has been built to cope with the influx of extra people living here?
I don't enjoy traffic jams, but they're also quite often easy to avoid, especially if you can be flexible with your hours and with modern phones or satnavs giving traffic alerts it can still be quite possible to be driving at reasonable speeds and traffic jams are the exception not the norm for me.
But yes, something has to change, and that something is extra road capacity. Not magicking away cars with pixie dust and pushbikes.
Congratulations to @HYUFD who said the conservatives would hold Uxbridge
Also a lot of humble pie is needed by all those who dismissed ULEZ as an issue
In the wider context the war against the car is not labour's friend
I'm still not convinced by ULEZ as an issue in London - in a few outer seats, maybe, and imo not in the mayoral election.
However it remains that around 90% of vehicles are *already* compliant, so the number of voters actually affected will be very small. Not sure how it will play electorally - we'll see. I don't see it saving Tory bacon - the outraged gammon vote in Outer London is not imo dominant enough.
Perhaps it's more interesting in the other cities which are introducing Low Emission Zones across the country. Those places where there has not been investment in public transport are perhaps exposed, though there's not a clear correlation.
This is a 2021 graphic, so it may have changed a little.
I think it is the first evidence that the war on cars may not play into labour's hands
It certainly played a part in Uxbridge and already we see calls to move the 2030 deadline for all new cars to be EV and here in Wales we have Drakeford cancelling all new road building, including the 3rd Menai crossing notwithstanding Holyhead is to become a free port, and the ideological change of all 30mph zones in Wales to 20mph by default
It will be interesting how this plays out over the next 15 months
Remember what happens when labour ignore WVM
Isn't that a teeny weeny bit depressing, though?
After all, most of those measures are about reducing the harms that cars do. ULEZ attempts to deal with some specific localised air pollution. Reducing speed limits makes accidents less likely and less harmful. That sort of thing. Tilting the balance between the benefits drivers get from driving and the costs that society pays.
One lesson of Uxbridge is that, at least in some seats, that's politically unacceptable. And whilst there's something in the "wrong moment" argument, the experience is that car restraint measures are rarely popular in advance. And there are plenty of other measures that any government is going to have to take in the next few years.
Are will still so pampered as a nation that we're going to spit out any nasty medicine?
The intention of a policy - reduction of pollution - may be good. While the implementation/methodology is bad.
What is politically unacceptable is saying that “those people who are poor and screwed over by this policy - well, the aim of the policy is good. So on consideration, and after some thought FUCK YOU, FUCKERS”.
ULEZ has become, in the eyes of some poorer people, a tax which has little or no cost on the well off. Who own expensive, frequently updated cars. And/Or can afford to life in the areas with the best public transport connections to their white collar jobs and don’t need a vehicle for work.
Something to understand as well. Those with cars in the “next tranche”, that tightening ULEZ will ban, are convinced that the next step is coming very soon and will be done in the same way. So far more than the 10% of car owners with non compliant vehicles are upset about this.
It is perfectly possible to come up with a way to reduce emissions that doesn’t do this. The ULEZ implementation was picked because it was cheap and easy - for the politicians and those running the system. Producer interest vs Consumer.
I want to express my thanks to HYUFD for his canvassing report.
It prompted me to put £50 on the Conservatives to hold Uxbridge, at 9-1.
Quite.
Maybe people should listen to @HYUFD more rather than just take the piss out of him?
He does way more for the party than I do.
Even a stopped clock occasionally tells the right time.
That's not fair. On polling and seat numbers he's usually pretty shrewd.
He's just unable to admit when he's wrong on any other subject and he frequently is, which makes him look silly.
He *can* be right on polling. But he can also endlessly be wrong. Curtice has just laid out the harsh reality that these by-elections show the Tories even further behind than the polls suggested.
HY cherry picks polls to show things aren't that bad actually and if you look here actually you will see the Tories are right actually. Which isn't correct.
Not can we set aside that Mr Holier-than-thou has a defective grasp on the faith he rams into everyone's faces, never mind the moral vacuum where literally any depravity can be supported of there is a vote in it.
He called Uxbridge. Which is insightful! But that doesn't make him right. Because it was ULEZ or if it was Hindu's then it isn't the government and it's 5 People's Priorities which he insists we all have top of mind. Steve Gammon didn't mention them at all in his campaign.
As you say, Curtice has just laid out the harsh reality for the Tories that these by-elections show them even further behind than the polls suggested. And in doing so he very much downplayed the significance of the Uxbridge result on the basis that an unusual local issue came to the fore there.
That's a very different emphasis on the big picture than is found in Mike's thread header, which almost treats Selby as an afterthought. I agree with Curtice.
Even if you ignore the effect of ULEZ, the big picture is this, taking the three by-elections as a whole: In the one by-election that the LDs contested actively, their vote share rose by 28.4% In the two by-elections that Labour contested actively, their vote share rose by an average of 13.7% The Conservatives contested all three by-elections actively, and their vote share fell by an average of 21%.
Basically the electorate are voting for the Anyone-But-Conservative candidate best placed to win. That's backed up by the fact that that Labour lost their deposit in one by election and the LDs in two, which signals that tactical voting against the Conservatives is back on a massive scale. HYUFD may have called Uxbridge right, but last night also showed that when he downplays the likelihood of tactical voting he could not be more wrong.
Congratulations to @HYUFD who said the conservatives would hold Uxbridge
Also a lot of humble pie is needed by all those who dismissed ULEZ as an issue
In the wider context the war against the car is not labour's friend
I'm still not convinced by ULEZ as an issue in London - in a few outer seats, maybe, and imo not in the mayoral election.
However it remains that around 90% of vehicles are *already* compliant, so the number of voters actually affected will be very small. Not sure how it will play electorally - we'll see. I don't see it saving Tory bacon - the outraged gammon vote in Outer London is not imo dominant enough.
Perhaps it's more interesting in the other cities which are introducing Low Emission Zones across the country. Those places where there has not been investment in public transport are perhaps exposed, though there's not a clear correlation.
This is a 2021 graphic, so it may have changed a little.
I think it is the first evidence that the war on cars may not play into labour's hands
It certainly played a part in Uxbridge and already we see calls to move the 2030 deadline for all new cars to be EV and here in Wales we have Drakeford cancelling all new road building, including the 3rd Menai crossing notwithstanding Holyhead is to become a free port, and the ideological change of all 30mph zones in Wales to 20mph by default
It will be interesting how this plays out over the next 15 months
Remember what happens when labour ignore WVM
An urban speed limit of 20 mph in Wales is a lot like ULEZ expansion. It isn't the principle that is wrong, it is the speed and lack of thought in which it is being implemented.
Transport policy is a disaster nationally. There are too many cars, not enough infrastructure (including alternative transport). Driving anywhere is horrendous, particularly in cities. Now that the current Government in Westminster have learned anti - green, anti- safety issues win votes, it is a situation that will undoubtedly get worse.
This is the BS.
Driving anywhere, except a tiny minority of the country in inner cities, is pleasant and convenient. Not horrendous.
Driving is the most freeing, the most liberating, the most self-controlled means of transportation people have in the modern, developed world.
Relying upon others, on 'public transportation' is a farce and a pathetic joke outside of a tiny number of metropolises, and it always will be.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with private transportation. Either environmentally, once we switch to clean technologies, or progressively, or for a matter of convenience.
Personally, I find driving a car is shit everywhere. A bicycle is way more enjoyable.
Nothing wrong environmentally if we pretend hard enough.
I know you like to be the king of wishful thinking, but isn't this a bit much eve for you?
A bicycle is enjoyable for having fun. It is a social activity.
When it comes to moving a serious distance, or moving multiple people a distance, or moving a heavy or bulky quantity of goods - nothing comes close to a private vehicle.
And no pretence necessary. Electric cars are the future, not replacing an eighty mile journey to see relatives with riding a bicycle down the M6.
Fine, as long as car users are paying their externalities properly. Sone of that is schemes like ULEZ, but it's also that car use makes towns and cities inefficient. You have to put stuff further apart to make room for cars. That makes services more expensive to provide and someone has to pick up the tab.
I've mentioned this group before, small state Americans really unkeen on extensive car provision:
Congratulations to @HYUFD who said the conservatives would hold Uxbridge
Also a lot of humble pie is needed by all those who dismissed ULEZ as an issue
In the wider context the war against the car is not labour's friend
I'm still not convinced by ULEZ as an issue in London - in a few outer seats, maybe, and imo not in the mayoral election.
However it remains that around 90% of vehicles are *already* compliant, so the number of voters actually affected will be very small. Not sure how it will play electorally - we'll see. I don't see it saving Tory bacon - the outraged gammon vote in Outer London is not imo dominant enough.
Perhaps it's more interesting in the other cities which are introducing Low Emission Zones across the country. Those places where there has not been investment in public transport are perhaps exposed, though there's not a clear correlation.
This is a 2021 graphic, so it may have changed a little.
I think it is the first evidence that the war on cars may not play into labour's hands
It certainly played a part in Uxbridge and already we see calls to move the 2030 deadline for all new cars to be EV and here in Wales we have Drakeford cancelling all new road building, including the 3rd Menai crossing notwithstanding Holyhead is to become a free port, and the ideological change of all 30mph zones in Wales to 20mph by default
It will be interesting how this plays out over the next 15 months
Remember what happens when labour ignore WVM
An urban speed limit of 20 mph in Wales is a lot like ULEZ expansion. It isn't the principle that is wrong, it is the speed and lack of thought in which it is being implemented.
Transport policy is a disaster nationally. There are too many cars, not enough infrastructure (including alternative transport). Driving anywhere is horrendous, particularly in cities. Now that the current Government in Westminster have learned anti - green, anti- safety issues win votes, it is a situation that will undoubtedly get worse.
This is the BS.
Driving anywhere, except a tiny minority of the country in inner cities, is pleasant and convenient. Not horrendous.
Driving is the most freeing, the most liberating, the most self-controlled means of transportation people have in the modern, developed world.
Relying upon others, on 'public transportation' is a farce and a pathetic joke outside of a tiny number of metropolises, and it always will be.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with private transportation. Either environmentally, once we switch to clean technologies, or progressively, or for a matter of convenience.
You are talking s***e as usual.
As someone who does 30,000 miles a year I take no s*** from a Sunday driver. I can tell you my worst blackspots. M42 around Solihull. M6 Junction 9 to the M54, the entire M25., the Brynglas Tunnel. I wouldn't dream of driving in central London anymore, Birmingham, an hour from Bristol Street to the M5. I could go on all day. If one needs to make an appointment one cannot rely on the motorcar, and use a smart motorway and if there has been an accident one can be, one, two, three hours late.
It is not the golden age of motoring, that is long gone.
You can add the M5 between Gordano and the junction for Weston, and in the summer the whole Bristol-Exeter section. Horrendous.
Congratulations to @HYUFD who said the conservatives would hold Uxbridge
Also a lot of humble pie is needed by all those who dismissed ULEZ as an issue
In the wider context the war against the car is not labour's friend
I'm still not convinced by ULEZ as an issue in London - in a few outer seats, maybe, and imo not in the mayoral election.
However it remains that around 90% of vehicles are *already* compliant, so the number of voters actually affected will be very small. Not sure how it will play electorally - we'll see. I don't see it saving Tory bacon - the outraged gammon vote in Outer London is not imo dominant enough.
Perhaps it's more interesting in the other cities which are introducing Low Emission Zones across the country. Those places where there has not been investment in public transport are perhaps exposed, though there's not a clear correlation.
This is a 2021 graphic, so it may have changed a little.
I think it is the first evidence that the war on cars may not play into labour's hands
It certainly played a part in Uxbridge and already we see calls to move the 2030 deadline for all new cars to be EV and here in Wales we have Drakeford cancelling all new road building, including the 3rd Menai crossing notwithstanding Holyhead is to become a free port, and the ideological change of all 30mph zones in Wales to 20mph by default
It will be interesting how this plays out over the next 15 months
Remember what happens when labour ignore WVM
An urban speed limit of 20 mph in Wales is a lot like ULEZ expansion. It isn't the principle that is wrong, it is the speed and lack of thought in which it is being implemented.
Transport policy is a disaster nationally. There are too many cars, not enough infrastructure (including alternative transport). Driving anywhere is horrendous, particularly in cities. Now that the current Government in Westminster have learned anti - green, anti- safety issues win votes, it is a situation that will undoubtedly get worse.
This is the BS.
Driving anywhere, except a tiny minority of the country in inner cities, is pleasant and convenient. Not horrendous.
Driving is the most freeing, the most liberating, the most self-controlled means of transportation people have in the modern, developed world.
Relying upon others, on 'public transportation' is a farce and a pathetic joke outside of a tiny number of metropolises, and it always will be.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with private transportation. Either environmentally, once we switch to clean technologies, or progressively, or for a matter of convenience.
Personally, I find driving a car is shit everywhere. A bicycle is way more enjoyable.
Nothing wrong environmentally if we pretend hard enough.
I know you like to be the king of wishful thinking, but isn't this a bit much eve for you?
A bicycle is enjoyable for having fun. It is a social activity.
When it comes to moving a serious distance, or moving multiple people a distance, or moving a heavy or bulky quantity of goods - nothing comes close to a private vehicle.
And no pretence necessary. Electric cars are the future, not replacing an eighty mile journey to see relatives with riding a bicycle down the M6.
Fine, as long as car users are paying their externalities properly. Sone of that is schemes like ULEZ, but it's also that car use makes towns and cities inefficient. You have to put stuff further apart to make room for cars. That makes services more expensive to provide and someone has to pick up the tab.
I've mentioned this group before, small state Americans really unkeen on extensive car provision:
Cars make towns far, far more efficient. Getting about towns at 30-40mph is much faster than walking around town at 3-4mph.
And you may have mentioned that group before, but I've never heard of them before and they seem batshit crazy to me. There's cults of every kind in America, so no shock there's an anti-car cult.
It's clearly his only tie, possibly his only suit, and, despite being young and pretty slim, he still manages to look shit in it and like an extra who's escaped from Harry Potter film:
Congratulations to @HYUFD who said the conservatives would hold Uxbridge
Also a lot of humble pie is needed by all those who dismissed ULEZ as an issue
In the wider context the war against the car is not labour's friend
I'm still not convinced by ULEZ as an issue in London - in a few outer seats, maybe, and imo not in the mayoral election.
However it remains that around 90% of vehicles are *already* compliant, so the number of voters actually affected will be very small. Not sure how it will play electorally - we'll see. I don't see it saving Tory bacon - the outraged gammon vote in Outer London is not imo dominant enough.
Perhaps it's more interesting in the other cities which are introducing Low Emission Zones across the country. Those places where there has not been investment in public transport are perhaps exposed, though there's not a clear correlation.
This is a 2021 graphic, so it may have changed a little.
I think it is the first evidence that the war on cars may not play into labour's hands
It certainly played a part in Uxbridge and already we see calls to move the 2030 deadline for all new cars to be EV and here in Wales we have Drakeford cancelling all new road building, including the 3rd Menai crossing notwithstanding Holyhead is to become a free port, and the ideological change of all 30mph zones in Wales to 20mph by default
It will be interesting how this plays out over the next 15 months
Remember what happens when labour ignore WVM
An urban speed limit of 20 mph in Wales is a lot like ULEZ expansion. It isn't the principle that is wrong, it is the speed and lack of thought in which it is being implemented.
Transport policy is a disaster nationally. There are too many cars, not enough infrastructure (including alternative transport). Driving anywhere is horrendous, particularly in cities. Now that the current Government in Westminster have learned anti - green, anti- safety issues win votes, it is a situation that will undoubtedly get worse.
This is the BS.
Driving anywhere, except a tiny minority of the country in inner cities, is pleasant and convenient. Not horrendous.
Driving is the most freeing, the most liberating, the most self-controlled means of transportation people have in the modern, developed world.
Relying upon others, on 'public transportation' is a farce and a pathetic joke outside of a tiny number of metropolises, and it always will be.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with private transportation. Either environmentally, once we switch to clean technologies, or progressively, or for a matter of convenience.
You are talking s***e as usual.
As someone who does 30,000 miles a year I take no s*** from a Sunday driver. I can tell you my worst blackspots. M42 around Solihull. M6 Junction 9 to the M54, the entire M25., the Brynglas Tunnel. I wouldn't dream of driving in central London anymore, Birmingham, an hour from Bristol Street to the M5. I could go on all day. If one needs to make an appointment one cannot rely on the motorcar, and use a smart motorway and if there has been an accident one can be, one, two, three hours late.
It is not the golden age of motoring, that is long gone.
You make my point for me. There's a reason you drive 30k miles a year, its because driving works, and nothing else does.
If one needs to make an appointment, the only thing one can rely upon is the motorcar, in almost the entire country.
Yes traffic may be shit in a few places. Shit happens. I can tell you absolutely eg if there's an accident on the M6, or the M56, or the M62 it can lead to sudden gridlock in towns used as a ratrun to avoid the motorway traffic, or worse a motorway closure.
But despite that, its still by far the best option.
The private motorcar, is in almost all circumstances, like democracy. Its the worst option available - except for all other options that have yet been tried.
But I am telling you it doesn't work. There are too many cars on the road. Private motoring is unsustainable from the practical point of view.
It wasn't like this 50 years ago, although it has been getting considerably worse year on year over the last 40. We are at gridlock. It has to change.
You may enjoy the freedom of the open road from a traffic jam, but I don't.
Here's a novel solution - build more roads.
If roads are at capacity, build extra capacity. Same as any other transportation.
Build new motorways, new roads, wider roads, extra lanes, new bridges - whatever is required.
Yes there's extra people on the roads, that's because *drumroll* there's extra people in the country. We used to have 50 million people in the country, we now have 70 million, but where's the new motorway capacity that has been built to cope with the influx of extra people living here?
I don't enjoy traffic jams, but they're also quite often easy to avoid, especially if you can be flexible with your hours and with modern phones or satnavs giving traffic alerts it can still be quite possible to be driving at reasonable speeds and traffic jams are the exception not the norm for me.
But yes, something has to change, and that something is extra road capacity. Not magicking away cars with pixie dust and pushbikes.
Road-building is still something being done in Scotland - the A90 Aberdeen bypass has transformed the ability of the north east to get about, and has greatly reduced the amount of pollution both on the former through route in the city's western suburbs, but also in villages on other Aberdeen-avoidance routes.
In classic style you can't actually build new motorways. So instead its legally a motorway but disguised with green signs...
Considering Heathener spams the site daily with his vapid bilge about how random strangers tell them about the anger and hatred to the Tories how on Earth did they hold Uxbridge?
Congratulations to @HYUFD who said the conservatives would hold Uxbridge
Also a lot of humble pie is needed by all those who dismissed ULEZ as an issue
In the wider context the war against the car is not labour's friend
I'm still not convinced by ULEZ as an issue in London - in a few outer seats, maybe, and imo not in the mayoral election.
However it remains that around 90% of vehicles are *already* compliant, so the number of voters actually affected will be very small. Not sure how it will play electorally - we'll see. I don't see it saving Tory bacon - the outraged gammon vote in Outer London is not imo dominant enough.
Perhaps it's more interesting in the other cities which are introducing Low Emission Zones across the country. Those places where there has not been investment in public transport are perhaps exposed, though there's not a clear correlation.
This is a 2021 graphic, so it may have changed a little.
I think it is the first evidence that the war on cars may not play into labour's hands
It certainly played a part in Uxbridge and already we see calls to move the 2030 deadline for all new cars to be EV and here in Wales we have Drakeford cancelling all new road building, including the 3rd Menai crossing notwithstanding Holyhead is to become a free port, and the ideological change of all 30mph zones in Wales to 20mph by default
It will be interesting how this plays out over the next 15 months
Remember what happens when labour ignore WVM
An urban speed limit of 20 mph in Wales is a lot like ULEZ expansion. It isn't the principle that is wrong, it is the speed and lack of thought in which it is being implemented.
Transport policy is a disaster nationally. There are too many cars, not enough infrastructure (including alternative transport). Driving anywhere is horrendous, particularly in cities. Now that the current Government in Westminster have learned anti - green, anti- safety issues win votes, it is a situation that will undoubtedly get worse.
This is the BS.
Driving anywhere, except a tiny minority of the country in inner cities, is pleasant and convenient. Not horrendous.
Driving is the most freeing, the most liberating, the most self-controlled means of transportation people have in the modern, developed world.
Relying upon others, on 'public transportation' is a farce and a pathetic joke outside of a tiny number of metropolises, and it always will be.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with private transportation. Either environmentally, once we switch to clean technologies, or progressively, or for a matter of convenience.
Personally, I find driving a car is shit everywhere. A bicycle is way more enjoyable.
Nothing wrong environmentally if we pretend hard enough.
I know you like to be the king of wishful thinking, but isn't this a bit much eve for you?
A bicycle is enjoyable for having fun. It is a social activity.
When it comes to moving a serious distance, or moving multiple people a distance, or moving a heavy or bulky quantity of goods - nothing comes close to a private vehicle.
And no pretence necessary. Electric cars are the future, not replacing an eighty mile journey to see relatives with riding a bicycle down the M6.
Bicycles are also widely used for commuting. When I lived in Germany, I used to cycle 5 miles to work every day, unless the weather was particularly bad. As well as saving me money, this kept me fit and left more space on the roads for those who needed to use their cars.
I would commute by bicycle here in the UK, but it's simply too dangerous and unpleasant, so that's another car added to the rush-hour traffic.
Congratulations to @HYUFD who said the conservatives would hold Uxbridge
Also a lot of humble pie is needed by all those who dismissed ULEZ as an issue
In the wider context the war against the car is not labour's friend
I'm still not convinced by ULEZ as an issue in London - in a few outer seats, maybe, and imo not in the mayoral election.
However it remains that around 90% of vehicles are *already* compliant, so the number of voters actually affected will be very small. Not sure how it will play electorally - we'll see. I don't see it saving Tory bacon - the outraged gammon vote in Outer London is not imo dominant enough.
Perhaps it's more interesting in the other cities which are introducing Low Emission Zones across the country. Those places where there has not been investment in public transport are perhaps exposed, though there's not a clear correlation.
This is a 2021 graphic, so it may have changed a little.
I think it is the first evidence that the war on cars may not play into labour's hands
It certainly played a part in Uxbridge and already we see calls to move the 2030 deadline for all new cars to be EV and here in Wales we have Drakeford cancelling all new road building, including the 3rd Menai crossing notwithstanding Holyhead is to become a free port, and the ideological change of all 30mph zones in Wales to 20mph by default
It will be interesting how this plays out over the next 15 months
Remember what happens when labour ignore WVM
An urban speed limit of 20 mph in Wales is a lot like ULEZ expansion. It isn't the principle that is wrong, it is the speed and lack of thought in which it is being implemented.
Transport policy is a disaster nationally. There are too many cars, not enough infrastructure (including alternative transport). Driving anywhere is horrendous, particularly in cities. Now that the current Government in Westminster have learned anti - green, anti- safety issues win votes, it is a situation that will undoubtedly get worse.
This is the BS.
Driving anywhere, except a tiny minority of the country in inner cities, is pleasant and convenient. Not horrendous.
Driving is the most freeing, the most liberating, the most self-controlled means of transportation people have in the modern, developed world.
Relying upon others, on 'public transportation' is a farce and a pathetic joke outside of a tiny number of metropolises, and it always will be.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with private transportation. Either environmentally, once we switch to clean technologies, or progressively, or for a matter of convenience.
Personally, I find driving a car is shit everywhere. A bicycle is way more enjoyable.
Nothing wrong environmentally if we pretend hard enough.
I know you like to be the king of wishful thinking, but isn't this a bit much eve for you?
A bicycle is enjoyable for having fun. It is a social activity.
When it comes to moving a serious distance, or moving multiple people a distance, or moving a heavy or bulky quantity of goods - nothing comes close to a private vehicle.
And no pretence necessary. Electric cars are the future, not replacing an eighty mile journey to see relatives with riding a bicycle down the M6.
Fine, as long as car users are paying their externalities properly. Sone of that is schemes like ULEZ, but it's also that car use makes towns and cities inefficient. You have to put stuff further apart to make room for cars. That makes services more expensive to provide and someone has to pick up the tab.
I've mentioned this group before, small state Americans really unkeen on extensive car provision:
Congratulations to @HYUFD who said the conservatives would hold Uxbridge
Also a lot of humble pie is needed by all those who dismissed ULEZ as an issue
In the wider context the war against the car is not labour's friend
I'm still not convinced by ULEZ as an issue in London - in a few outer seats, maybe, and imo not in the mayoral election.
However it remains that around 90% of vehicles are *already* compliant, so the number of voters actually affected will be very small. Not sure how it will play electorally - we'll see. I don't see it saving Tory bacon - the outraged gammon vote in Outer London is not imo dominant enough.
Perhaps it's more interesting in the other cities which are introducing Low Emission Zones across the country. Those places where there has not been investment in public transport are perhaps exposed, though there's not a clear correlation.
This is a 2021 graphic, so it may have changed a little.
I think it is the first evidence that the war on cars may not play into labour's hands
It certainly played a part in Uxbridge and already we see calls to move the 2030 deadline for all new cars to be EV and here in Wales we have Drakeford cancelling all new road building, including the 3rd Menai crossing notwithstanding Holyhead is to become a free port, and the ideological change of all 30mph zones in Wales to 20mph by default
It will be interesting how this plays out over the next 15 months
Remember what happens when labour ignore WVM
An urban speed limit of 20 mph in Wales is a lot like ULEZ expansion. It isn't the principle that is wrong, it is the speed and lack of thought in which it is being implemented.
Transport policy is a disaster nationally. There are too many cars, not enough infrastructure (including alternative transport). Driving anywhere is horrendous, particularly in cities. Now that the current Government in Westminster have learned anti - green, anti- safety issues win votes, it is a situation that will undoubtedly get worse.
This is the BS.
Driving anywhere, except a tiny minority of the country in inner cities, is pleasant and convenient. Not horrendous.
Driving is the most freeing, the most liberating, the most self-controlled means of transportation people have in the modern, developed world.
Relying upon others, on 'public transportation' is a farce and a pathetic joke outside of a tiny number of metropolises, and it always will be.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with private transportation. Either environmentally, once we switch to clean technologies, or progressively, or for a matter of convenience.
Personally, I find driving a car is shit everywhere. A bicycle is way more enjoyable.
Nothing wrong environmentally if we pretend hard enough.
I know you like to be the king of wishful thinking, but isn't this a bit much eve for you?
A bicycle is enjoyable for having fun. It is a social activity.
When it comes to moving a serious distance, or moving multiple people a distance, or moving a heavy or bulky quantity of goods - nothing comes close to a private vehicle.
And no pretence necessary. Electric cars are the future, not replacing an eighty mile journey to see relatives with riding a bicycle down the M6.
Fine, as long as car users are paying their externalities properly. Sone of that is schemes like ULEZ, but it's also that car use makes towns and cities inefficient. You have to put stuff further apart to make room for cars. That makes services more expensive to provide and someone has to pick up the tab.
I've mentioned this group before, small state Americans really unkeen on extensive car provision:
Cars make towns far, far more efficient. Getting about towns at 30-40mph is much faster than walking around town at 3-4mph.
Yes - and no. Lets take Newcastle as a prime example. Yes the Central Motorway East makes for a faster escape northwards from my usual hotel. But had they built the rest of the system then the city would be horribly clogged up with motorways bringing traffic into a terribly small urban area surrounded not only by a motorway ring but also with one passing underneath.
Think Coventry, only even worse. Parkways absolutely work in planned developments like Birchwood. But not when smashed into urban areas.
That Tories will want to weaponise that Uxbridge result. The problem is, the Tories are committed to banning new ICEs from 2030 (I know that’s to do with climate rather than air quality, but it’s the same effect). I wonder if they might now ditch that and dare Labour to keep that pledge.
It's not an ICE ban as PHEVs will still be available until 2035. There probably won't be any pure ICE offerings from any major OEMs anyway by then so it's irrelevant what this scumbag government does or doesn't do on the issue.
Considering Heathener spams the site daily with his vapid bilge about how random strangers tell him about the anger and hatred to the Tories how on Earth did they hold Uxbridge?
Congratulations to @HYUFD who said the conservatives would hold Uxbridge
Also a lot of humble pie is needed by all those who dismissed ULEZ as an issue
In the wider context the war against the car is not labour's friend
I'm still not convinced by ULEZ as an issue in London - in a few outer seats, maybe, and imo not in the mayoral election.
However it remains that around 90% of vehicles are *already* compliant, so the number of voters actually affected will be very small. Not sure how it will play electorally - we'll see. I don't see it saving Tory bacon - the outraged gammon vote in Outer London is not imo dominant enough.
Perhaps it's more interesting in the other cities which are introducing Low Emission Zones across the country. Those places where there has not been investment in public transport are perhaps exposed, though there's not a clear correlation.
This is a 2021 graphic, so it may have changed a little.
I think it is the first evidence that the war on cars may not play into labour's hands
It certainly played a part in Uxbridge and already we see calls to move the 2030 deadline for all new cars to be EV and here in Wales we have Drakeford cancelling all new road building, including the 3rd Menai crossing notwithstanding Holyhead is to become a free port, and the ideological change of all 30mph zones in Wales to 20mph by default
It will be interesting how this plays out over the next 15 months
Remember what happens when labour ignore WVM
An urban speed limit of 20 mph in Wales is a lot like ULEZ expansion. It isn't the principle that is wrong, it is the speed and lack of thought in which it is being implemented.
Transport policy is a disaster nationally. There are too many cars, not enough infrastructure (including alternative transport). Driving anywhere is horrendous, particularly in cities. Now that the current Government in Westminster have learned anti - green, anti- safety issues win votes, it is a situation that will undoubtedly get worse.
This is the BS.
Driving anywhere, except a tiny minority of the country in inner cities, is pleasant and convenient. Not horrendous.
Driving is the most freeing, the most liberating, the most self-controlled means of transportation people have in the modern, developed world.
Relying upon others, on 'public transportation' is a farce and a pathetic joke outside of a tiny number of metropolises, and it always will be.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with private transportation. Either environmentally, once we switch to clean technologies, or progressively, or for a matter of convenience.
Personally, I find driving a car is shit everywhere. A bicycle is way more enjoyable.
Nothing wrong environmentally if we pretend hard enough.
I know you like to be the king of wishful thinking, but isn't this a bit much eve for you?
A bicycle is enjoyable for having fun. It is a social activity.
When it comes to moving a serious distance, or moving multiple people a distance, or moving a heavy or bulky quantity of goods - nothing comes close to a private vehicle.
And no pretence necessary. Electric cars are the future, not replacing an eighty mile journey to see relatives with riding a bicycle down the M6.
Driving a bicycle can be very practical for a very large number of journeys. Not every journey, but I'm not a dogmatist who would propose one mode of transport is suitable for every journey.
Here in West Cork I'm finding driving is a lot easier than I ever found it anywhere in Britain. Where the population density is low a car comes into its own. But we visited Bath recently, using public transport when we were there this time - on a previous visit we'd driven, and in any sort of reasonably-sized urban area, using a car becomes nightmarish, and there are much better options.
My recommendation to you is to drive to the West of Ireland for a holiday. Experience the freedom of driving on roads where the worst traffic you have to worry about is an occasional tractor, or herd of cows. Then take yourself off for a holiday somewhere with good cycling infrastructure - some European city - and enjoy the freedom of being able to explore a city by bicycle, without having to battle the hassle of urban driving.
I think it would give you a broader perspective. You have a very narrow focus on car driving, and cannot imagine anything different.
A crumb of comfort for the Tories in Uxbridge . The tactical voting though should really concern them and could add to their loses at the next GE .
I think it's more than a crumb, it's clearly a result and a half for them, and secures Rishi's job. I hope that the Tory leadership gets a taste for victory and tacks toward popular policies and away from the disastrous WEF policies that electorates across Europe are rejecting.
Congratulations to @HYUFD who said the conservatives would hold Uxbridge
Also a lot of humble pie is needed by all those who dismissed ULEZ as an issue
In the wider context the war against the car is not labour's friend
I'm still not convinced by ULEZ as an issue in London - in a few outer seats, maybe, and imo not in the mayoral election.
However it remains that around 90% of vehicles are *already* compliant, so the number of voters actually affected will be very small. Not sure how it will play electorally - we'll see. I don't see it saving Tory bacon - the outraged gammon vote in Outer London is not imo dominant enough.
Perhaps it's more interesting in the other cities which are introducing Low Emission Zones across the country. Those places where there has not been investment in public transport are perhaps exposed, though there's not a clear correlation.
This is a 2021 graphic, so it may have changed a little.
I think it is the first evidence that the war on cars may not play into labour's hands
It certainly played a part in Uxbridge and already we see calls to move the 2030 deadline for all new cars to be EV and here in Wales we have Drakeford cancelling all new road building, including the 3rd Menai crossing notwithstanding Holyhead is to become a free port, and the ideological change of all 30mph zones in Wales to 20mph by default
It will be interesting how this plays out over the next 15 months
Remember what happens when labour ignore WVM
An urban speed limit of 20 mph in Wales is a lot like ULEZ expansion. It isn't the principle that is wrong, it is the speed and lack of thought in which it is being implemented.
Transport policy is a disaster nationally. There are too many cars, not enough infrastructure (including alternative transport). Driving anywhere is horrendous, particularly in cities. Now that the current Government in Westminster have learned anti - green, anti- safety issues win votes, it is a situation that will undoubtedly get worse.
This is the BS.
Driving anywhere, except a tiny minority of the country in inner cities, is pleasant and convenient. Not horrendous.
Driving is the most freeing, the most liberating, the most self-controlled means of transportation people have in the modern, developed world.
Relying upon others, on 'public transportation' is a farce and a pathetic joke outside of a tiny number of metropolises, and it always will be.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with private transportation. Either environmentally, once we switch to clean technologies, or progressively, or for a matter of convenience.
Personally, I find driving a car is shit everywhere. A bicycle is way more enjoyable.
Nothing wrong environmentally if we pretend hard enough.
I know you like to be the king of wishful thinking, but isn't this a bit much eve for you?
A bicycle is enjoyable for having fun. It is a social activity.
When it comes to moving a serious distance, or moving multiple people a distance, or moving a heavy or bulky quantity of goods - nothing comes close to a private vehicle.
And no pretence necessary. Electric cars are the future, not replacing an eighty mile journey to see relatives with riding a bicycle down the M6.
Fine, as long as car users are paying their externalities properly. Sone of that is schemes like ULEZ, but it's also that car use makes towns and cities inefficient. You have to put stuff further apart to make room for cars. That makes services more expensive to provide and someone has to pick up the tab.
I've mentioned this group before, small state Americans really unkeen on extensive car provision:
What the Uxbridge result does raise is a little word of warning to parties that I suspect the next “voter backlash” issue may be to what are perceived as ill thought through “anti car” policies.
The rush to demonstrate pro-environmental credentials has undoubtedly led to some councils taking rather zealous action and this will probably continue for the foreseeable future. While these actions are commended by many, oftentimes they are not accompanied by a measurable improvement in public transport provision or other highway improvements which allows a significant backlash to develop. In many ways it is questionable exactly how much benefit is derived from the measures as well, other than inconveniencing motorists. As driving becomes greener, there is the great potential that some of these policies will be looked back on as the Beeching cuts of the roads.
Look, it’s going to be a highly localised issue, particularly in the outskirts of cities more than anywhere else, and I don’t think it has fully broken through as a political issue yet. But it will.
So Labour win Selby, the LDs won Somerton but the Tories hold Uxbridge. Who could possibly have predicted that result? Oh yes, me!
You did, and credit where it's due.
Did you see that John Curtice clip? Whilst you called this right, you called your party doing *worse* than the opinion polls show.
Curtice made another interesting point. Your win in Uxbridge was essentially an opposition campaign. As the party in government, what other issues can you oppose...?
The Government can oppose the Opposition who will be seeking to become the next Government at the election.
Make it a referendum on "do you want them" rather than "do you still want us".
Hardly an original concept, and pretty much why swingback exists.
The danger for Labour is their support may currently be a mile wide, but an inch deep.
That strategy will hold then 20 of the seats they most need to defend. But ensure they get crushed in the rest. Let's use ULEZ as the example. If Sue Trump now thinks 'lets scrap ULEZ' she will do well in a handful of outer boroughs and get demolished everywhere else.
And Sue Hall will go all in on opposing ULEZ. From the campaigns to become the candidate, that's already clear.
As I've said before, it works in Zone 6, which is about the only place where you still find Conservatives in Greater London. But it turns off voters further in.
And once the scheme is in place, and people have gone to the trouble/expense of adapting, there won't be as many votes in favour of reversal.
I would be surprised if the result is just down to ULEZ. After all, surely Labour was campaigning hard on a whole stack of issues about which people would want to protest the government?
Interesting byelections results. In terms of next year's general election, they don't change anything...
...However, in the long term, it's very disturbing. It demonstrates the kind of opposition which can be rallied to environmental policies and how easily the Conservatives could be seduced into leading it.
If the Tories hadn't selected such a loonbag, they could beat Khan next May.
I don’t see now, even with a saner candidate, they can beat Khan. They held Uxbridge, but still suffered a 7% swing against them. They’d need a swing *to* them to win the mayoral contest, and most of London is not like Uxbridge.
Congratulations to @HYUFD who said the conservatives would hold Uxbridge
Also a lot of humble pie is needed by all those who dismissed ULEZ as an issue
In the wider context the war against the car is not labour's friend
I'm still not convinced by ULEZ as an issue in London - in a few outer seats, maybe, and imo not in the mayoral election.
However it remains that around 90% of vehicles are *already* compliant, so the number of voters actually affected will be very small. Not sure how it will play electorally - we'll see. I don't see it saving Tory bacon - the outraged gammon vote in Outer London is not imo dominant enough.
Perhaps it's more interesting in the other cities which are introducing Low Emission Zones across the country. Those places where there has not been investment in public transport are perhaps exposed, though there's not a clear correlation.
This is a 2021 graphic, so it may have changed a little.
I think it is the first evidence that the war on cars may not play into labour's hands
It certainly played a part in Uxbridge and already we see calls to move the 2030 deadline for all new cars to be EV and here in Wales we have Drakeford cancelling all new road building, including the 3rd Menai crossing notwithstanding Holyhead is to become a free port, and the ideological change of all 30mph zones in Wales to 20mph by default
It will be interesting how this plays out over the next 15 months
Remember what happens when labour ignore WVM
An urban speed limit of 20 mph in Wales is a lot like ULEZ expansion. It isn't the principle that is wrong, it is the speed and lack of thought in which it is being implemented.
Transport policy is a disaster nationally. There are too many cars, not enough infrastructure (including alternative transport). Driving anywhere is horrendous, particularly in cities. Now that the current Government in Westminster have learned anti - green, anti- safety issues win votes, it is a situation that will undoubtedly get worse.
This is the BS.
Driving anywhere, except a tiny minority of the country in inner cities, is pleasant and convenient. Not horrendous.
Driving is the most freeing, the most liberating, the most self-controlled means of transportation people have in the modern, developed world.
Relying upon others, on 'public transportation' is a farce and a pathetic joke outside of a tiny number of metropolises, and it always will be.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with private transportation. Either environmentally, once we switch to clean technologies, or progressively, or for a matter of convenience.
You are talking s***e as usual.
As someone who does 30,000 miles a year I take no s*** from a Sunday driver. I can tell you my worst blackspots. M42 around Solihull. M6 Junction 9 to the M54, the entire M25., the Brynglas Tunnel. I wouldn't dream of driving in central London anymore, Birmingham, an hour from Bristol Street to the M5. I could go on all day. If one needs to make an appointment one cannot rely on the motorcar, and use a smart motorway and if there has been an accident one can be, one, two, three hours late.
It is not the golden age of motoring, that is long gone.
You make my point for me. There's a reason you drive 30k miles a year, its because driving works, and nothing else does.
If one needs to make an appointment, the only thing one can rely upon is the motorcar, in almost the entire country.
Yes traffic may be shit in a few places. Shit happens. I can tell you absolutely eg if there's an accident on the M6, or the M56, or the M62 it can lead to sudden gridlock in towns used as a ratrun to avoid the motorway traffic, or worse a motorway closure.
But despite that, its still by far the best option.
The private motorcar, is in almost all circumstances, like democracy. Its the worst option available - except for all other options that have yet been tried.
But I am telling you it doesn't work. There are too many cars on the road. Private motoring is unsustainable from the practical point of view.
It wasn't like this 50 years ago, although it has been getting considerably worse year on year over the last 40. We are at gridlock. It has to change.
You may enjoy the freedom of the open road from a traffic jam, but I don't.
Here's a novel solution - build more roads.
If roads are at capacity, build extra capacity. Same as any other transportation.
Build new motorways, new roads, wider roads, extra lanes, new bridges - whatever is required.
Yes there's extra people on the roads, that's because *drumroll* there's extra people in the country. We used to have 50 million people in the country, we now have 70 million, but where's the new motorway capacity that has been built to cope with the influx of extra people living here?
I don't enjoy traffic jams, but they're also quite often easy to avoid, especially if you can be flexible with your hours and with modern phones or satnavs giving traffic alerts it can still be quite possible to be driving at reasonable speeds and traffic jams are the exception not the norm for me.
But yes, something has to change, and that something is extra road capacity. Not magicking away cars with pixie dust and pushbikes.
More roads generate more traffic. The M25 is proof in point. And coming from the North West do you never use the series of car parks prefaced with M6. (60, 61, 62 etc, etc) it is chaos for most of the day? P.S. I'd love an M4 Southern Relief Road at Newport, but that would have busted the entire transport budget for Wales for the next five years.
We need to get about, but as someone who uses private transport all day every day, the private car is unsustainable.
I can't say I'm surprised that the government should perform worse than its poll rating, in a by-election. Governments usually do.
Absolutely, especially against the Lib Dems who remain masters of by election campaigns.
I think Rishi will think, it could have been worse. Murmurings about replacing him, never loud, will die away. But the Tories are still on track for a heavy defeat. I am currently estimating them losing 100-120 seats, not a wipe out by any means but a loss of power that may well get worse in the election after that. The pendulum has turned.
So Labour win Selby, the LDs won Somerton but the Tories hold Uxbridge. Who could possibly have predicted that result? Oh yes, me!
You did, and credit where it's due.
Did you see that John Curtice clip? Whilst you called this right, you called your party doing *worse* than the opinion polls show.
Curtice made another interesting point. Your win in Uxbridge was essentially an opposition campaign. As the party in government, what other issues can you oppose...?
The Government can oppose the Opposition who will be seeking to become the next Government at the election.
Make it a referendum on "do you want them" rather than "do you still want us".
Hardly an original concept, and pretty much why swingback exists.
The danger for Labour is their support may currently be a mile wide, but an inch deep.
That strategy will hold then 20 of the seats they most need to defend. But ensure they get crushed in the rest. Let's use ULEZ as the example. If Sue Trump now thinks 'lets scrap ULEZ' she will do well in a handful of outer boroughs and get demolished everywhere else.
And Sue Hall will go all in on opposing ULEZ. From the campaigns to become the candidate, that's already clear.
As I've said before, it works in Zone 6, which is about the only place where you still find Conservatives in Greater London. But it turns off voters further in.
And once the scheme is in place, and people have gone to the trouble/expense of adapting, there won't be as many votes in favour of reversal.
As noted before, as far as the inner zones are concerned, her slogan might as well be "Vote Tory. Choke a baby."
Congratulations to @HYUFD who said the conservatives would hold Uxbridge
Also a lot of humble pie is needed by all those who dismissed ULEZ as an issue
In the wider context the war against the car is not labour's friend
I'm still not convinced by ULEZ as an issue in London - in a few outer seats, maybe, and imo not in the mayoral election.
However it remains that around 90% of vehicles are *already* compliant, so the number of voters actually affected will be very small. Not sure how it will play electorally - we'll see. I don't see it saving Tory bacon - the outraged gammon vote in Outer London is not imo dominant enough.
Perhaps it's more interesting in the other cities which are introducing Low Emission Zones across the country. Those places where there has not been investment in public transport are perhaps exposed, though there's not a clear correlation.
This is a 2021 graphic, so it may have changed a little.
I think it is the first evidence that the war on cars may not play into labour's hands
It certainly played a part in Uxbridge and already we see calls to move the 2030 deadline for all new cars to be EV and here in Wales we have Drakeford cancelling all new road building, including the 3rd Menai crossing notwithstanding Holyhead is to become a free port, and the ideological change of all 30mph zones in Wales to 20mph by default
It will be interesting how this plays out over the next 15 months
Remember what happens when labour ignore WVM
An urban speed limit of 20 mph in Wales is a lot like ULEZ expansion. It isn't the principle that is wrong, it is the speed and lack of thought in which it is being implemented.
Transport policy is a disaster nationally. There are too many cars, not enough infrastructure (including alternative transport). Driving anywhere is horrendous, particularly in cities. Now that the current Government in Westminster have learned anti - green, anti- safety issues win votes, it is a situation that will undoubtedly get worse.
This is the BS.
Driving anywhere, except a tiny minority of the country in inner cities, is pleasant and convenient. Not horrendous.
Driving is the most freeing, the most liberating, the most self-controlled means of transportation people have in the modern, developed world.
Relying upon others, on 'public transportation' is a farce and a pathetic joke outside of a tiny number of metropolises, and it always will be.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with private transportation. Either environmentally, once we switch to clean technologies, or progressively, or for a matter of convenience.
You are talking s***e as usual.
As someone who does 30,000 miles a year I take no s*** from a Sunday driver. I can tell you my worst blackspots. M42 around Solihull. M6 Junction 9 to the M54, the entire M25., the Brynglas Tunnel. I wouldn't dream of driving in central London anymore, Birmingham, an hour from Bristol Street to the M5. I could go on all day. If one needs to make an appointment one cannot rely on the motorcar, and use a smart motorway and if there has been an accident one can be, one, two, three hours late.
It is not the golden age of motoring, that is long gone.
You make my point for me. There's a reason you drive 30k miles a year, its because driving works, and nothing else does.
If one needs to make an appointment, the only thing one can rely upon is the motorcar, in almost the entire country.
Yes traffic may be shit in a few places. Shit happens. I can tell you absolutely eg if there's an accident on the M6, or the M56, or the M62 it can lead to sudden gridlock in towns used as a ratrun to avoid the motorway traffic, or worse a motorway closure.
But despite that, its still by far the best option.
The private motorcar, is in almost all circumstances, like democracy. Its the worst option available - except for all other options that have yet been tried.
But I am telling you it doesn't work. There are too many cars on the road. Private motoring is unsustainable from the practical point of view.
It wasn't like this 50 years ago, although it has been getting considerably worse year on year over the last 40. We are at gridlock. It has to change.
You may enjoy the freedom of the open road from a traffic jam, but I don't.
Here's a novel solution - build more roads.
If roads are at capacity, build extra capacity. Same as any other transportation.
Build new motorways, new roads, wider roads, extra lanes, new bridges - whatever is required.
Yes there's extra people on the roads, that's because *drumroll* there's extra people in the country. We used to have 50 million people in the country, we now have 70 million, but where's the new motorway capacity that has been built to cope with the influx of extra people living here?
I don't enjoy traffic jams, but they're also quite often easy to avoid, especially if you can be flexible with your hours and with modern phones or satnavs giving traffic alerts it can still be quite possible to be driving at reasonable speeds and traffic jams are the exception not the norm for me.
But yes, something has to change, and that something is extra road capacity. Not magicking away cars with pixie dust and pushbikes.
Road-building is still something being done in Scotland - the A90 Aberdeen bypass has transformed the ability of the north east to get about, and has greatly reduced the amount of pollution both on the former through route in the city's western suburbs, but also in villages on other Aberdeen-avoidance routes.
In classic style you can't actually build new motorways. So instead its legally a motorway but disguised with green signs...
Yes a lot of traffic driving through towns are often quite literally driving through the town. The driver has no desire to be in the town, it's simply on the route.
New roads that bypass towns at a higher speed limit both provide more capacity and convenience for drivers commuting a distance, and free up the local roads for local traffic, whether cars, buses or bicycles.
So Labour win Selby, the LDs won Somerton but the Tories hold Uxbridge. Who could possibly have predicted that result? Oh yes, me!
You did, and credit where it's due.
Did you see that John Curtice clip? Whilst you called this right, you called your party doing *worse* than the opinion polls show.
Curtice made another interesting point. Your win in Uxbridge was essentially an opposition campaign. As the party in government, what other issues can you oppose...?
The Government can oppose the Opposition who will be seeking to become the next Government at the election.
Make it a referendum on "do you want them" rather than "do you still want us".
Hardly an original concept, and pretty much why swingback exists.
The danger for Labour is their support may currently be a mile wide, but an inch deep.
That strategy will hold then 20 of the seats they most need to defend. But ensure they get crushed in the rest. Let's use ULEZ as the example. If Sue Trump now thinks 'lets scrap ULEZ' she will do well in a handful of outer boroughs and get demolished everywhere else.
And Sue Hall will go all in on opposing ULEZ. From the campaigns to become the candidate, that's already clear.
As I've said before, it works in Zone 6, which is about the only place where you still find Conservatives in Greater London. But it turns off voters further in.
And once the scheme is in place, and people have gone to the trouble/expense of adapting, there won't be as many votes in favour of reversal.
I would be surprised if the result is just down to ULEZ. After all, surely Labour was campaigning hard on a whole stack of issues about which people would want to protest the government?
Possibly. But something like ULEZ is easy to weaponise. This is something that is going to be imposed on YOU*. YOU have a chance to stop this and your chance of doing so is sending a message.
*it’s rather cynical politics because probably a lot of people aren’t affected by it in that they don’t own an affected vehicle. But it’s a bit like IHT - you can galvanise a lot of support of people that fear its impact than are actually measurably affected by it.
Congratulations to @HYUFD who said the conservatives would hold Uxbridge
Also a lot of humble pie is needed by all those who dismissed ULEZ as an issue
In the wider context the war against the car is not labour's friend
I'm still not convinced by ULEZ as an issue in London - in a few outer seats, maybe, and imo not in the mayoral election.
However it remains that around 90% of vehicles are *already* compliant, so the number of voters actually affected will be very small. Not sure how it will play electorally - we'll see. I don't see it saving Tory bacon - the outraged gammon vote in Outer London is not imo dominant enough.
Perhaps it's more interesting in the other cities which are introducing Low Emission Zones across the country. Those places where there has not been investment in public transport are perhaps exposed, though there's not a clear correlation.
This is a 2021 graphic, so it may have changed a little.
I think it is the first evidence that the war on cars may not play into labour's hands
It certainly played a part in Uxbridge and already we see calls to move the 2030 deadline for all new cars to be EV and here in Wales we have Drakeford cancelling all new road building, including the 3rd Menai crossing notwithstanding Holyhead is to become a free port, and the ideological change of all 30mph zones in Wales to 20mph by default
It will be interesting how this plays out over the next 15 months
Remember what happens when labour ignore WVM
An urban speed limit of 20 mph in Wales is a lot like ULEZ expansion. It isn't the principle that is wrong, it is the speed and lack of thought in which it is being implemented.
Transport policy is a disaster nationally. There are too many cars, not enough infrastructure (including alternative transport). Driving anywhere is horrendous, particularly in cities. Now that the current Government in Westminster have learned anti - green, anti- safety issues win votes, it is a situation that will undoubtedly get worse.
This is the BS.
Driving anywhere, except a tiny minority of the country in inner cities, is pleasant and convenient. Not horrendous.
Driving is the most freeing, the most liberating, the most self-controlled means of transportation people have in the modern, developed world.
Relying upon others, on 'public transportation' is a farce and a pathetic joke outside of a tiny number of metropolises, and it always will be.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with private transportation. Either environmentally, once we switch to clean technologies, or progressively, or for a matter of convenience.
Personally, I find driving a car is shit everywhere. A bicycle is way more enjoyable.
Nothing wrong environmentally if we pretend hard enough.
I know you like to be the king of wishful thinking, but isn't this a bit much eve for you?
A bicycle is enjoyable for having fun. It is a social activity.
When it comes to moving a serious distance, or moving multiple people a distance, or moving a heavy or bulky quantity of goods - nothing comes close to a private vehicle.
And no pretence necessary. Electric cars are the future, not replacing an eighty mile journey to see relatives with riding a bicycle down the M6.
Driving a bicycle can be very practical for a very large number of journeys. Not every journey, but I'm not a dogmatist who would propose one mode of transport is suitable for every journey.
Here in West Cork I'm finding driving is a lot easier than I ever found it anywhere in Britain. Where the population density is low a car comes into its own. But we visited Bath recently, using public transport when we were there this time - on a previous visit we'd driven, and in any sort of reasonably-sized urban area, using a car becomes nightmarish, and there are much better options.
My recommendation to you is to drive to the West of Ireland for a holiday. Experience the freedom of driving on roads where the worst traffic you have to worry about is an occasional tractor, or herd of cows. Then take yourself off for a holiday somewhere with good cycling infrastructure - some European city - and enjoy the freedom of being able to explore a city by bicycle, without having to battle the hassle of urban driving.
I think it would give you a broader perspective. You have a very narrow focus on car driving, and cannot imagine anything different.
There is such a thing as a phobia brought on by unfortunate experiences in school buses many, many years ago.
Congratulations to @HYUFD who said the conservatives would hold Uxbridge
Also a lot of humble pie is needed by all those who dismissed ULEZ as an issue
In the wider context the war against the car is not labour's friend
I'm still not convinced by ULEZ as an issue in London - in a few outer seats, maybe, and imo not in the mayoral election.
However it remains that around 90% of vehicles are *already* compliant, so the number of voters actually affected will be very small. Not sure how it will play electorally - we'll see. I don't see it saving Tory bacon - the outraged gammon vote in Outer London is not imo dominant enough.
Perhaps it's more interesting in the other cities which are introducing Low Emission Zones across the country. Those places where there has not been investment in public transport are perhaps exposed, though there's not a clear correlation.
This is a 2021 graphic, so it may have changed a little.
I think it is the first evidence that the war on cars may not play into labour's hands
It certainly played a part in Uxbridge and already we see calls to move the 2030 deadline for all new cars to be EV and here in Wales we have Drakeford cancelling all new road building, including the 3rd Menai crossing notwithstanding Holyhead is to become a free port, and the ideological change of all 30mph zones in Wales to 20mph by default
It will be interesting how this plays out over the next 15 months
Remember what happens when labour ignore WVM
An urban speed limit of 20 mph in Wales is a lot like ULEZ expansion. It isn't the principle that is wrong, it is the speed and lack of thought in which it is being implemented.
Transport policy is a disaster nationally. There are too many cars, not enough infrastructure (including alternative transport). Driving anywhere is horrendous, particularly in cities. Now that the current Government in Westminster have learned anti - green, anti- safety issues win votes, it is a situation that will undoubtedly get worse.
This is the BS.
Driving anywhere, except a tiny minority of the country in inner cities, is pleasant and convenient. Not horrendous.
Driving is the most freeing, the most liberating, the most self-controlled means of transportation people have in the modern, developed world.
Relying upon others, on 'public transportation' is a farce and a pathetic joke outside of a tiny number of metropolises, and it always will be.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with private transportation. Either environmentally, once we switch to clean technologies, or progressively, or for a matter of convenience.
Personally, I find driving a car is shit everywhere. A bicycle is way more enjoyable.
Nothing wrong environmentally if we pretend hard enough.
I know you like to be the king of wishful thinking, but isn't this a bit much eve for you?
A bicycle is enjoyable for having fun. It is a social activity.
When it comes to moving a serious distance, or moving multiple people a distance, or moving a heavy or bulky quantity of goods - nothing comes close to a private vehicle.
And no pretence necessary. Electric cars are the future, not replacing an eighty mile journey to see relatives with riding a bicycle down the M6.
Fine, as long as car users are paying their externalities properly. Sone of that is schemes like ULEZ, but it's also that car use makes towns and cities inefficient. You have to put stuff further apart to make room for cars. That makes services more expensive to provide and someone has to pick up the tab.
I've mentioned this group before, small state Americans really unkeen on extensive car provision:
Interesting byelections results. In terms of next year's general election, they don't change anything...
...However, in the long term, it's very disturbing. It demonstrates the kind of opposition which can be rallied to environmental policies and how easily the Conservatives could be seduced into leading it.
Meanwhile Sir John Curtice tells Nick Robinson that the overnight results show the Tories are a long way behind, declining their vote by a greater margin than the opinion polls show...
Nobody can deny that it was a poor night but Uxbridge was unexpected, despite @HYUFD predictions, and for Sunak it must be a relief as he goes into recess
We are still 15 months away from a GE and events happen, including what happens in Scotland to the SNP
Hopefully Uxbridge will encourage Tory complacency. Brunel university being out of term will have helped them too.
What was the swing in Uxbridge? 6.7% from 2019. So if you apply that as UNS on electoral calculus on the new boundaries that gives you Lab largest party and 15 short of a majority. That’s without any SNP losses and no tactical voting.
So a Labour majority is quite possible even with Uxbridge-style swing.
If anyone is in danger of complacency it is labour, I cannot imagine any conservative is
Have you not listened to them this morning on Today or read them on Twitter (and on here)? They are heartened. In Uxbridge they see a chink of light, a route through to the victory that they deserve and are constitutionally entitled to.
Never mind Selby. Who knows what happened there. And Somerton can be discounted as that’s just Lib Dems winning a mid term by-election. The big story is Uxbridge.
I must say there’s also been woeful expectation management by Labour. How on earth have they managed to make a 20%+ swing in Yorkshire seem widely expected and nailed on? That should have been the shock result of the night.
Congratulations to @HYUFD who said the conservatives would hold Uxbridge
Also a lot of humble pie is needed by all those who dismissed ULEZ as an issue
In the wider context the war against the car is not labour's friend
I'm still not convinced by ULEZ as an issue in London - in a few outer seats, maybe, and imo not in the mayoral election.
However it remains that around 90% of vehicles are *already* compliant, so the number of voters actually affected will be very small. Not sure how it will play electorally - we'll see. I don't see it saving Tory bacon - the outraged gammon vote in Outer London is not imo dominant enough.
Perhaps it's more interesting in the other cities which are introducing Low Emission Zones across the country. Those places where there has not been investment in public transport are perhaps exposed, though there's not a clear correlation.
This is a 2021 graphic, so it may have changed a little.
I think it is the first evidence that the war on cars may not play into labour's hands
It certainly played a part in Uxbridge and already we see calls to move the 2030 deadline for all new cars to be EV and here in Wales we have Drakeford cancelling all new road building, including the 3rd Menai crossing notwithstanding Holyhead is to become a free port, and the ideological change of all 30mph zones in Wales to 20mph by default
It will be interesting how this plays out over the next 15 months
Remember what happens when labour ignore WVM
An urban speed limit of 20 mph in Wales is a lot like ULEZ expansion. It isn't the principle that is wrong, it is the speed and lack of thought in which it is being implemented.
Transport policy is a disaster nationally. There are too many cars, not enough infrastructure (including alternative transport). Driving anywhere is horrendous, particularly in cities. Now that the current Government in Westminster have learned anti - green, anti- safety issues win votes, it is a situation that will undoubtedly get worse.
This is the BS.
Driving anywhere, except a tiny minority of the country in inner cities, is pleasant and convenient. Not horrendous.
Driving is the most freeing, the most liberating, the most self-controlled means of transportation people have in the modern, developed world.
Relying upon others, on 'public transportation' is a farce and a pathetic joke outside of a tiny number of metropolises, and it always will be.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with private transportation. Either environmentally, once we switch to clean technologies, or progressively, or for a matter of convenience.
You are talking s***e as usual.
As someone who does 30,000 miles a year I take no s*** from a Sunday driver. I can tell you my worst blackspots. M42 around Solihull. M6 Junction 9 to the M54, the entire M25., the Brynglas Tunnel. I wouldn't dream of driving in central London anymore, Birmingham, an hour from Bristol Street to the M5. I could go on all day. If one needs to make an appointment one cannot rely on the motorcar, and use a smart motorway and if there has been an accident one can be, one, two, three hours late.
It is not the golden age of motoring, that is long gone.
You make my point for me. There's a reason you drive 30k miles a year, its because driving works, and nothing else does.
If one needs to make an appointment, the only thing one can rely upon is the motorcar, in almost the entire country.
Yes traffic may be shit in a few places. Shit happens. I can tell you absolutely eg if there's an accident on the M6, or the M56, or the M62 it can lead to sudden gridlock in towns used as a ratrun to avoid the motorway traffic, or worse a motorway closure.
But despite that, its still by far the best option.
The private motorcar, is in almost all circumstances, like democracy. Its the worst option available - except for all other options that have yet been tried.
But I am telling you it doesn't work. There are too many cars on the road. Private motoring is unsustainable from the practical point of view.
It wasn't like this 50 years ago, although it has been getting considerably worse year on year over the last 40. We are at gridlock. It has to change.
You may enjoy the freedom of the open road from a traffic jam, but I don't.
Here's a novel solution - build more roads.
If roads are at capacity, build extra capacity. Same as any other transportation.
Build new motorways, new roads, wider roads, extra lanes, new bridges - whatever is required.
Yes there's extra people on the roads, that's because *drumroll* there's extra people in the country. We used to have 50 million people in the country, we now have 70 million, but where's the new motorway capacity that has been built to cope with the influx of extra people living here?
I don't enjoy traffic jams, but they're also quite often easy to avoid, especially if you can be flexible with your hours and with modern phones or satnavs giving traffic alerts it can still be quite possible to be driving at reasonable speeds and traffic jams are the exception not the norm for me.
But yes, something has to change, and that something is extra road capacity. Not magicking away cars with pixie dust and pushbikes.
More roads generate more traffic. The M25 is proof in point. And coming from the North West do you never use the series of car parks prefaced with M6. (60, 61, 62 etc, etc) it is chaos for most of the day? P.S. I'd love an M4 Southern Relief Road at Newport, but that would have busted the entire transport budget for Wales for the next five years.
We need to get about, but as someone who uses private transport all day every day, the private car is unsustainable.
"More roads generate more traffic" - great!
More traffic is a good thing. It's more transportation, more activity, more convenience, more business. Why oppose that?
More traffic spread over more roads is less traffic per road, not more, overall like a supermarket opening extra checkouts not forcing everyone through just one checkout.
The private car is only unsustainable if you haven't considered every other option which is even less sustainable.
I live in the UK's most congested city, Edinburgh, yet we have the the best public transport system in Scotland and the city is about as walkable as they come. Cycling is getting there. A small, rich minority cause congestion for everyone else.
There are very few reasons for driving here or in central London. But very large chunks of the population don't have this opportunity to make the switch. Public transport and walking cycling provision in our regional cities is pathetic - compare Liverpool to any French city. That has to come first.
What Khan and others need to do is to offer this carrot, and fast. We could have fully funded HS2 if we hadn't frozen fuel duty over the last few years. We need to explain that building more roads induces more demand, rather than sating it.
I can't say I'm surprised that the government should perform worse than its poll rating, in a by-election. Governments usually do.
Absolutely, especially against the Lib Dems who remain masters of by election campaigns.
I think Rishi will think, it could have been worse. Murmurings about replacing him, never loud, will die away. But the Tories are still on track for a heavy defeat. I am currently estimating them losing 100-120 seats, not a wipe out by any means but a loss of power that may well get worse in the election after that. The pendulum has turned.
CON 240 seats or so at the next GE is entirely plausible and in line with my own expectations. So not a wipeout.
So LAB to get the overall majority or maybe fall just short, Keir will be PM in any case as LAB will do a deal with LDs, their 20-25 seats will be enough to provide a stable government through confidence and supply.
Congratulations to @HYUFD who said the conservatives would hold Uxbridge
Also a lot of humble pie is needed by all those who dismissed ULEZ as an issue
In the wider context the war against the car is not labour's friend
I'm still not convinced by ULEZ as an issue in London - in a few outer seats, maybe, and imo not in the mayoral election.
However it remains that around 90% of vehicles are *already* compliant, so the number of voters actually affected will be very small. Not sure how it will play electorally - we'll see. I don't see it saving Tory bacon - the outraged gammon vote in Outer London is not imo dominant enough.
Perhaps it's more interesting in the other cities which are introducing Low Emission Zones across the country. Those places where there has not been investment in public transport are perhaps exposed, though there's not a clear correlation.
This is a 2021 graphic, so it may have changed a little.
I think it is the first evidence that the war on cars may not play into labour's hands
It certainly played a part in Uxbridge and already we see calls to move the 2030 deadline for all new cars to be EV and here in Wales we have Drakeford cancelling all new road building, including the 3rd Menai crossing notwithstanding Holyhead is to become a free port, and the ideological change of all 30mph zones in Wales to 20mph by default
It will be interesting how this plays out over the next 15 months
Remember what happens when labour ignore WVM
An urban speed limit of 20 mph in Wales is a lot like ULEZ expansion. It isn't the principle that is wrong, it is the speed and lack of thought in which it is being implemented.
Transport policy is a disaster nationally. There are too many cars, not enough infrastructure (including alternative transport). Driving anywhere is horrendous, particularly in cities. Now that the current Government in Westminster have learned anti - green, anti- safety issues win votes, it is a situation that will undoubtedly get worse.
This is the BS.
Driving anywhere, except a tiny minority of the country in inner cities, is pleasant and convenient. Not horrendous.
Driving is the most freeing, the most liberating, the most self-controlled means of transportation people have in the modern, developed world.
Relying upon others, on 'public transportation' is a farce and a pathetic joke outside of a tiny number of metropolises, and it always will be.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with private transportation. Either environmentally, once we switch to clean technologies, or progressively, or for a matter of convenience.
Personally, I find driving a car is shit everywhere. A bicycle is way more enjoyable.
Nothing wrong environmentally if we pretend hard enough.
I know you like to be the king of wishful thinking, but isn't this a bit much eve for you?
A bicycle is enjoyable for having fun. It is a social activity.
When it comes to moving a serious distance, or moving multiple people a distance, or moving a heavy or bulky quantity of goods - nothing comes close to a private vehicle.
And no pretence necessary. Electric cars are the future, not replacing an eighty mile journey to see relatives with riding a bicycle down the M6.
Bicycles are also widely used for commuting. When I lived in Germany, I used to cycle 5 miles to work every day, unless the weather was particularly bad. As well as saving me money, this kept me fit and left more space on the roads for those who needed to use their cars.
I would commute by bicycle here in the UK, but it's simply too dangerous and unpleasant, so that's another car added to the rush-hour traffic.
The idea that bikes are inherently recreational rather than utility vehicles is quite silly. They ought to be a perfectly good way of making practical 2-10 mile journeys (like commutes). They can (like cars!) absolutely be recreational too.
I don’t think anyone is seriously suggesting replacing cars with bikes for long journeys. But most people don’t make long journeys that often.
Let’s be careful though, this thread carries an increasing risk of becoming about WFH.
Congratulations to @HYUFD who said the conservatives would hold Uxbridge
Also a lot of humble pie is needed by all those who dismissed ULEZ as an issue
In the wider context the war against the car is not labour's friend
I'm still not convinced by ULEZ as an issue in London - in a few outer seats, maybe, and imo not in the mayoral election.
However it remains that around 90% of vehicles are *already* compliant, so the number of voters actually affected will be very small. Not sure how it will play electorally - we'll see. I don't see it saving Tory bacon - the outraged gammon vote in Outer London is not imo dominant enough.
Perhaps it's more interesting in the other cities which are introducing Low Emission Zones across the country. Those places where there has not been investment in public transport are perhaps exposed, though there's not a clear correlation.
This is a 2021 graphic, so it may have changed a little.
I think it is the first evidence that the war on cars may not play into labour's hands
It certainly played a part in Uxbridge and already we see calls to move the 2030 deadline for all new cars to be EV and here in Wales we have Drakeford cancelling all new road building, including the 3rd Menai crossing notwithstanding Holyhead is to become a free port, and the ideological change of all 30mph zones in Wales to 20mph by default
It will be interesting how this plays out over the next 15 months
Remember what happens when labour ignore WVM
An urban speed limit of 20 mph in Wales is a lot like ULEZ expansion. It isn't the principle that is wrong, it is the speed and lack of thought in which it is being implemented.
Transport policy is a disaster nationally. There are too many cars, not enough infrastructure (including alternative transport). Driving anywhere is horrendous, particularly in cities. Now that the current Government in Westminster have learned anti - green, anti- safety issues win votes, it is a situation that will undoubtedly get worse.
This is the BS.
Driving anywhere, except a tiny minority of the country in inner cities, is pleasant and convenient. Not horrendous.
Driving is the most freeing, the most liberating, the most self-controlled means of transportation people have in the modern, developed world.
Relying upon others, on 'public transportation' is a farce and a pathetic joke outside of a tiny number of metropolises, and it always will be.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with private transportation. Either environmentally, once we switch to clean technologies, or progressively, or for a matter of convenience.
Personally, I find driving a car is shit everywhere. A bicycle is way more enjoyable.
Nothing wrong environmentally if we pretend hard enough.
I know you like to be the king of wishful thinking, but isn't this a bit much eve for you?
A bicycle is enjoyable for having fun. It is a social activity.
When it comes to moving a serious distance, or moving multiple people a distance, or moving a heavy or bulky quantity of goods - nothing comes close to a private vehicle.
And no pretence necessary. Electric cars are the future, not replacing an eighty mile journey to see relatives with riding a bicycle down the M6.
Driving a bicycle can be very practical for a very large number of journeys. Not every journey, but I'm not a dogmatist who would propose one mode of transport is suitable for every journey.
Here in West Cork I'm finding driving is a lot easier than I ever found it anywhere in Britain. Where the population density is low a car comes into its own. But we visited Bath recently, using public transport when we were there this time - on a previous visit we'd driven, and in any sort of reasonably-sized urban area, using a car becomes nightmarish, and there are much better options.
My recommendation to you is to drive to the West of Ireland for a holiday. Experience the freedom of driving on roads where the worst traffic you have to worry about is an occasional tractor, or herd of cows. Then take yourself off for a holiday somewhere with good cycling infrastructure - some European city - and enjoy the freedom of being able to explore a city by bicycle, without having to battle the hassle of urban driving.
I think it would give you a broader perspective. You have a very narrow focus on car driving, and cannot imagine anything different.
When we were in Valencia, my son commented on the number of middle-aged women riding bicycles in normal clothes, obviously simply using a bike to get from A to B. Having grown up in the UK, it was something of a novelty to him that bikes could actually be used as practical transport by a wide range of people and not just for recreation by sporty types.
It's clearly his only tie, possibly his only suit, and, despite being young and pretty slim, he still manages to look shit in it and like an extra who's escaped from Harry Potter film:
I think that is more a reflection on our age @Casino_Royale (although I know you are a lot younger than me). I must admit my first thought was that if he didn't get to bed he would be late for school. Consequences of getting older.
I want to express my thanks to HYUFD for his canvassing report.
It prompted me to put £50 on the Conservatives to hold Uxbridge, at 9-1.
Quite.
Maybe people should listen to @HYUFD more rather than just take the piss out of him?
He does way more for the party than I do.
Even a stopped clock occasionally tells the right time.
That's not fair. On polling and seat numbers he's usually pretty shrewd.
He's just unable to admit when he's wrong on any other subject and he frequently is, which makes him look silly.
He *can* be right on polling. But he can also endlessly be wrong. Curtice has just laid out the harsh reality that these by-elections show the Tories even further behind than the polls suggested.
HY cherry picks polls to show things aren't that bad actually and if you look here actually you will see the Tories are right actually. Which isn't correct.
Not can we set aside that Mr Holier-than-thou has a defective grasp on the faith he rams into everyone's faces, never mind the moral vacuum where literally any depravity can be supported of there is a vote in it.
He called Uxbridge. Which is insightful! But that doesn't make him right. Because it was ULEZ or if it was Hindu's then it isn't the government and it's 5 People's Priorities which he insists we all have top of mind. Steve Gammon didn't mention them at all in his campaign.
As you say, Curtice has just laid out the harsh reality for the Tories that these by-elections show them even further behind than the polls suggested. And in doing so he very much downplayed the significance of the Uxbridge result on the basis that an unusual local issue came to the fore there.
That's a very different emphasis on the big picture than is found in Mike's thread header, which almost treats Selby as an afterthought. I agree with Curtice.
Even if you ignore the effect of ULEZ, the big picture is this, taking the three by-elections as a whole: In the one by-election that the LDs contested actively, their vote share rose by 28.4% In the two by-elections that Labour contested actively, their vote share rose by an average of 13.7% The Conservatives contested all three by-elections actively, and their vote share fell by an average of 21%.
Basically the electorate are voting for the Anyone-But-Conservative candidate best placed to win. That's backed up by the fact that that Labour lost their deposit in one by election and the LDs in two, which signals that tactical voting against the Conservatives is back on a massive scale. HYUFD may have called Uxbridge right, but last night also showed that when he downplays the likelihood of tactical voting he could not be more wrong.
In 1997 Labour won Selby, the LDs won Somerton and Frome but the Tories held Uxbridge. So the result does show Rishi will at least do no worse than Major did in 1997 rather than the Canada 1993 wipeout Liz was heading for. Still much work to do to get inflation down further though etc
On the swing from last night's by elections as Bart said last night you would think Sir Ed Davey was heading for PM more than Sir Keir. Sir Keir will decide his Selby win with a Blairite youngster but Uxbridge loss with an inner London candidate due to Khan's ULEZ means he needs to ignore the left even more I suspect
Congratulations to @HYUFD who said the conservatives would hold Uxbridge
Also a lot of humble pie is needed by all those who dismissed ULEZ as an issue
In the wider context the war against the car is not labour's friend
I'm still not convinced by ULEZ as an issue in London - in a few outer seats, maybe, and imo not in the mayoral election.
However it remains that around 90% of vehicles are *already* compliant, so the number of voters actually affected will be very small. Not sure how it will play electorally - we'll see. I don't see it saving Tory bacon - the outraged gammon vote in Outer London is not imo dominant enough.
Perhaps it's more interesting in the other cities which are introducing Low Emission Zones across the country. Those places where there has not been investment in public transport are perhaps exposed, though there's not a clear correlation.
This is a 2021 graphic, so it may have changed a little.
I think it is the first evidence that the war on cars may not play into labour's hands
It certainly played a part in Uxbridge and already we see calls to move the 2030 deadline for all new cars to be EV and here in Wales we have Drakeford cancelling all new road building, including the 3rd Menai crossing notwithstanding Holyhead is to become a free port, and the ideological change of all 30mph zones in Wales to 20mph by default
It will be interesting how this plays out over the next 15 months
Remember what happens when labour ignore WVM
An urban speed limit of 20 mph in Wales is a lot like ULEZ expansion. It isn't the principle that is wrong, it is the speed and lack of thought in which it is being implemented.
Transport policy is a disaster nationally. There are too many cars, not enough infrastructure (including alternative transport). Driving anywhere is horrendous, particularly in cities. Now that the current Government in Westminster have learned anti - green, anti- safety issues win votes, it is a situation that will undoubtedly get worse.
This is the BS.
Driving anywhere, except a tiny minority of the country in inner cities, is pleasant and convenient. Not horrendous.
Driving is the most freeing, the most liberating, the most self-controlled means of transportation people have in the modern, developed world.
Relying upon others, on 'public transportation' is a farce and a pathetic joke outside of a tiny number of metropolises, and it always will be.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with private transportation. Either environmentally, once we switch to clean technologies, or progressively, or for a matter of convenience.
Personally, I find driving a car is shit everywhere. A bicycle is way more enjoyable.
Nothing wrong environmentally if we pretend hard enough.
I know you like to be the king of wishful thinking, but isn't this a bit much eve for you?
A bicycle is enjoyable for having fun. It is a social activity.
When it comes to moving a serious distance, or moving multiple people a distance, or moving a heavy or bulky quantity of goods - nothing comes close to a private vehicle.
And no pretence necessary. Electric cars are the future, not replacing an eighty mile journey to see relatives with riding a bicycle down the M6.
Fine, as long as car users are paying their externalities properly. Sone of that is schemes like ULEZ, but it's also that car use makes towns and cities inefficient. You have to put stuff further apart to make room for cars. That makes services more expensive to provide and someone has to pick up the tab.
I've mentioned this group before, small state Americans really unkeen on extensive car provision:
So. Do you want Britain to be rich? Do you want it enough to use you car less and other types of transport more?
You two seem to be missing that ULEZ is about the type of car (/vehicle), not about car use per se.
ULEZ also seems to be a case of this being the absolute peak of public disquiet and outrage about it, and in the absolute peak location. A bit like the timing of the Brexit vote at an absolute peak in voter concern over immigration.
Congratulations to @HYUFD who said the conservatives would hold Uxbridge
Also a lot of humble pie is needed by all those who dismissed ULEZ as an issue
In the wider context the war against the car is not labour's friend
I'm still not convinced by ULEZ as an issue in London - in a few outer seats, maybe, and imo not in the mayoral election.
However it remains that around 90% of vehicles are *already* compliant, so the number of voters actually affected will be very small. Not sure how it will play electorally - we'll see. I don't see it saving Tory bacon - the outraged gammon vote in Outer London is not imo dominant enough.
Perhaps it's more interesting in the other cities which are introducing Low Emission Zones across the country. Those places where there has not been investment in public transport are perhaps exposed, though there's not a clear correlation.
This is a 2021 graphic, so it may have changed a little.
I think it is the first evidence that the war on cars may not play into labour's hands
It certainly played a part in Uxbridge and already we see calls to move the 2030 deadline for all new cars to be EV and here in Wales we have Drakeford cancelling all new road building, including the 3rd Menai crossing notwithstanding Holyhead is to become a free port, and the ideological change of all 30mph zones in Wales to 20mph by default
It will be interesting how this plays out over the next 15 months
Remember what happens when labour ignore WVM
An urban speed limit of 20 mph in Wales is a lot like ULEZ expansion. It isn't the principle that is wrong, it is the speed and lack of thought in which it is being implemented.
Transport policy is a disaster nationally. There are too many cars, not enough infrastructure (including alternative transport). Driving anywhere is horrendous, particularly in cities. Now that the current Government in Westminster have learned anti - green, anti- safety issues win votes, it is a situation that will undoubtedly get worse.
This is the BS.
Driving anywhere, except a tiny minority of the country in inner cities, is pleasant and convenient. Not horrendous.
Driving is the most freeing, the most liberating, the most self-controlled means of transportation people have in the modern, developed world.
Relying upon others, on 'public transportation' is a farce and a pathetic joke outside of a tiny number of metropolises, and it always will be.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with private transportation. Either environmentally, once we switch to clean technologies, or progressively, or for a matter of convenience.
Personally, I find driving a car is shit everywhere. A bicycle is way more enjoyable.
Nothing wrong environmentally if we pretend hard enough.
I know you like to be the king of wishful thinking, but isn't this a bit much eve for you?
A bicycle is enjoyable for having fun. It is a social activity.
When it comes to moving a serious distance, or moving multiple people a distance, or moving a heavy or bulky quantity of goods - nothing comes close to a private vehicle.
And no pretence necessary. Electric cars are the future, not replacing an eighty mile journey to see relatives with riding a bicycle down the M6.
Fine, as long as car users are paying their externalities properly. Sone of that is schemes like ULEZ, but it's also that car use makes towns and cities inefficient. You have to put stuff further apart to make room for cars. That makes services more expensive to provide and someone has to pick up the tab.
I've mentioned this group before, small state Americans really unkeen on extensive car provision:
So. Do you want Britain to be rich? Do you want it enough to use you car less and other types of transport more?
Starting with your desire and working backwards again I see. Now jumping from town to city trying desperately to grasp onto a point.
Yes I want Britain to be rich.
No I won't use my car less and less productive and less convenient modes of transportation more. Next question please.
Shame. I thought you were more into prosperity and economic rationality than that.
Yes, cars can travel faster. Quite a lot of the time. But those gains in speed get swallowed up- and then some- by the increased distances you have to build into your towns and cities to make cars work in them.
Comments
Cutting to 20 in residential streets where children play on the road, or in actual school zones, may make sense but as a general rule of thumb everywhere? No, absolutely not.
And as for cancelling all road building? No, eliminating transportation is not a good idea in any circumstances - and its harmful for public transportation too, considering the #1 form of public transportation in most of the country is not trains or trams, its buses. And what do buses drive upon?
The only question seems whether Starmer can achieve a working majority
But - as I've always thought that confirmation bias applies.
Did you see that John Curtice clip? Whilst you called this right, you called your party doing *worse* than the opinion polls show.
Curtice made another interesting point. Your win in Uxbridge was essentially an opposition campaign. As the party in government, what other issues can you oppose...?
Many congratulations on being feted on here this morning
Very well done
Oh, sorry, is that not what you meant?
Nothing wrong environmentally if we pretend hard enough.
I know you like to be the king of wishful thinking, but isn't this a bit much eve for you?
As someone who does 30,000 miles a year I take no s*** from a Sunday driver. I can tell you my worst blackspots. M42 around Solihull. M6 Junction 9 to the M54, the entire M25., the Brynglas Tunnel. I wouldn't dream of driving in central London anymore, Birmingham, an hour from Bristol Street to the M5. I could go on all day. If one needs to make an appointment one cannot rely on the motorcar, and use a smart motorway and if there has been an accident one can be, one, two, three hours late.
It is not the golden age of motoring, that is long gone.
What continues to be missing from Labour is what they are for. If Starmer is sensible he will flesh out his 5 missions - give a sense of purpose about what his government stands for. Then again, many of the people who persuaded Ed that the Ed Stone was a good idea are still around...
Make it a referendum on "do you want them" rather than "do you still want us".
Hardly an original concept, and pretty much why swingback exists.
The danger for Labour is their support may currently be a mile wide, but an inch deep.
On Monday I was told by somebody who I trust that Labour were more confident on winning Selby than Uxbridge, I had my doubts, but still stuck some on the Tories to win at circa 9/1.
What was the swing in Uxbridge? 6.7% from 2019. So if you apply that as UNS on electoral calculus on the new boundaries that gives you Lab largest party and 15 short of a majority. That’s without any SNP losses and no tactical voting.
So a Labour majority is quite possible even with Uxbridge-style swing.
So where is the strength? Everywhere else. Unless the polls are wrong.
Labour vote very efficient I think.
There's a couple of explanations you can offer for this.
The more pro-Labour argument is that Uxbridge is different because so much of the Labour vote in 2019 was motivated as an anti-Boris Johnson vote, and so the baseline was artificially high.
The more pro-Tory argument is that if they can find the right issue to hammer home for each constituency or voter, then they can convince voters to vote on fear of Labour policy, rather than on anger at Tory failure.
Also, Khan appears to be a liability for Labour and they should find a replacement, otherwise the Tories have a decent chance of winning the Mayoral election once Labour are in government in Westminster.
If one needs to make an appointment, the only thing one can rely upon is the motorcar, in almost the entire country.
Yes traffic may be shit in a few places. Shit happens. I can tell you absolutely eg if there's an accident on the M6, or the M56, or the M62 it can lead to sudden gridlock in towns used as a ratrun to avoid the motorway traffic, or worse a motorway closure.
But despite that, its still by far the best option.
The private motorcar, is in almost all circumstances, like democracy. Its the worst option available - except for all other options that have yet been tried.
I campaigned in Uxbridge and here's why I think Labour failed to win. 1/ ULEZ - it's a community entirely based around the car and the Tories made it a single issue campaign .... but Labour failed to deal with it coherently from the start...
https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1682229544982282240
Out of touch high handedness also played a significant part in the Brighton Greens eviction from council office.
What is politically unacceptable is saying that “those people who are poor and screwed over by this policy - well, the aim of the policy is good. So on consideration, and after some thought FUCK YOU, FUCKERS”.
ULEZ has become, in the eyes of some poorer people, a tax which has little or no cost on the well off. Who own expensive, frequently updated cars. And/Or can afford to life in the areas with the best public transport connections to their white collar jobs and don’t need a vehicle for work.
Something to understand as well. Those with cars in the “next tranche”, that tightening ULEZ will ban, are convinced that the next step is coming very soon and will be done in the same way. So far more than the 10% of car owners with non compliant vehicles are upset about this.
It is perfectly possible to come up with a way to reduce emissions that doesn’t do this. The ULEZ implementation was picked because it was cheap and easy - for the politicians and those running the system. Producer interest vs Consumer.
I understand why those living in cities, and especially London with its excellent transport facilities, think your way but the vast majority of us do not live in cities
Turnout sub-50% in all three fwiw.
Not sure LAB have any answers though.
You don't need to make it about ULEZ nationwide. There will be issues that the public doesn't want the Opposition to do if elected and make it a referendum on that, on different issues in different seats, targeting the demographics, and it can work.
I don't think it will, because I think the public have had enough of the Government and I don't think this Government is confident or competent enough to win. But I didn't think they'd hold onto Uxbridge, so I might be wrong here too - its certainly not outwith the realms of possibility.
Tory vote holding up in urban areas.
Cratering in rural.
Suggests not much UNS and the possibility of some tasty constituency odds.
A (very) narrow pathway to Tories largest Party. Hold most urban seats on small swings. Hold most rural seats on much larger ones.
As I've said before, it works in Zone 6, which is about the only place where you still find Conservatives in Greater London. But it turns off voters further in.
And once the scheme is in place, and people have gone to the trouble/expense of adapting, there won't be as many votes in favour of reversal.
But at the moment the Labour vision is.....? Tories will try and claim "Labour will tax and spend" as if that hasn't been the Tory reality. But unless Labour actually set out some big ideas, the agenda can still be manipulated by the Tories and their tabloid spiv mates.
What's the betting that, at the general election, the @Conservatives retake Selby while @UKLabour win in Uxbridge?
https://twitter.com/ProfTimBale/status/1682281190533857280
It wasn't like this 50 years ago, although it has been getting considerably worse year on year over the last 40. We are at gridlock. It has to change.
You may enjoy the freedom of the open road from a traffic jam, but I don't.
When it comes to moving a serious distance, or moving multiple people a distance, or moving a heavy or bulky quantity of goods - nothing comes close to a private vehicle.
And no pretence necessary. Electric cars are the future, not replacing an eighty mile journey to see relatives with riding a bicycle down the M6.
I think the Uxbridge result is also a reminder that campaigns do matter. We often forget this because a lot of the time both campaigns are roughly equally effective, and so the net effect is nearly nil, but there is always the potential for one side or the other to mess it up (May, 2017), or to hit on an issue that resonates with the voters (Uxbridge, 2023).
Team Sunak will now surely believe that if they can find that one killer message, they can win the general election campaign and keep the Tories in government.
Gained Wakefield and Selby
Lost Hartlepool
What am I forgetting?
2/ Tories turned an environmental issue into a local democracy and social justice issue - thus dramatising the next 20 years of British politics
https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1682260755045838848?s=20
Bit like Labour in Brighton….
If roads are at capacity, build extra capacity. Same as any other transportation.
Build new motorways, new roads, wider roads, extra lanes, new bridges - whatever is required.
Yes there's extra people on the roads, that's because *drumroll* there's extra people in the country. We used to have 50 million people in the country, we now have 70 million, but where's the new motorway capacity that has been built to cope with the influx of extra people living here?
I don't enjoy traffic jams, but they're also quite often easy to avoid, especially if you can be flexible with your hours and with modern phones or satnavs giving traffic alerts it can still be quite possible to be driving at reasonable speeds and traffic jams are the exception not the norm for me.
But yes, something has to change, and that something is extra road capacity. Not magicking away cars with pixie dust and pushbikes.
That's a very different emphasis on the big picture than is found in Mike's thread header, which almost treats Selby as an afterthought. I agree with Curtice.
Even if you ignore the effect of ULEZ, the big picture is this, taking the three by-elections as a whole:
In the one by-election that the LDs contested actively, their vote share rose by 28.4%
In the two by-elections that Labour contested actively, their vote share rose by an average of 13.7%
The Conservatives contested all three by-elections actively, and their vote share fell by an average of 21%.
Basically the electorate are voting for the Anyone-But-Conservative candidate best placed to win. That's backed up by the fact that that Labour lost their deposit in one by election and the LDs in two, which signals that tactical voting against the Conservatives is back on a massive scale. HYUFD may have called Uxbridge right, but last night also showed that when he downplays the likelihood of tactical voting he could not be more wrong.
That makes it Labour friendlier.
It looks like a spoof of the one for the Dunny-on-the-Wold by-election.
I've mentioned this group before, small state Americans really unkeen on extensive car provision:
https://www.strongtowns.org/about
And you may have mentioned that group before, but I've never heard of them before and they seem batshit crazy to me. There's cults of every kind in America, so no shock there's an anti-car cult.
In classic style you can't actually build new motorways. So instead its legally a motorway but disguised with green signs...
I saw the betting out on the by-elections, but congratulations to those who had some nice wins. Oh, and the MPs, I suppose.
Considering Heathener spams the site daily with his vapid bilge about how random strangers tell them about the anger and hatred to the Tories how on Earth did they hold Uxbridge?
I would commute by bicycle here in the UK, but it's simply too dangerous and unpleasant, so that's another car added to the rush-hour traffic.
https://www.tomforth.co.uk/birminghamisasmallcity/
So. Do you want Britain to be rich? Do you want it enough to use you car less and other types of transport more?
The real by election test for Starmer will be in Rutherglen.
Think Coventry, only even worse. Parkways absolutely work in planned developments like Birchwood. But not when smashed into urban areas.
Here in West Cork I'm finding driving is a lot easier than I ever found it anywhere in Britain. Where the population density is low a car comes into its own. But we visited Bath recently, using public transport when we were there this time - on a previous visit we'd driven, and in any sort of reasonably-sized urban area, using a car becomes nightmarish, and there are much better options.
My recommendation to you is to drive to the West of Ireland for a holiday. Experience the freedom of driving on roads where the worst traffic you have to worry about is an occasional tractor, or herd of cows. Then take yourself off for a holiday somewhere with good cycling infrastructure - some European city - and enjoy the freedom of being able to explore a city by bicycle, without having to battle the hassle of urban driving.
I think it would give you a broader perspective. You have a very narrow focus on car driving, and cannot imagine anything different.
Yes I want Britain to be rich.
No I won't use my car less and less productive and less convenient modes of transportation more. Next question please.
The rush to demonstrate pro-environmental credentials has undoubtedly led to some councils taking rather zealous action and this will probably continue for the foreseeable future. While these actions are commended by many, oftentimes they are not accompanied by a measurable improvement in public transport provision or other highway improvements which allows a significant backlash to develop. In many ways it is questionable exactly how much benefit is derived from the measures as well, other than inconveniencing motorists. As driving becomes greener, there is the great potential that some of these policies will be looked back on as the Beeching cuts of the roads.
Look, it’s going to be a highly localised issue, particularly in the outskirts of cities more than anywhere else, and I don’t think it has fully broken through as a political issue yet. But it will.
Interesting byelections results. In terms of next year's general election, they don't change anything...
...However, in the long term, it's very disturbing. It demonstrates the kind of opposition which can be rallied to environmental policies and how easily the Conservatives could be seduced into leading it.
https://twitter.com/iandunt/status/1682267591799177217?s=46&t=57Amb-g8Gwf1lw53fDCljA
I don't think he's wrong.
We need to get about, but as someone who uses private transport all day every day, the private car is unsustainable.
I think Rishi will think, it could have been worse. Murmurings about replacing him, never loud, will die away. But the Tories are still on track for a heavy defeat. I am currently estimating them losing 100-120 seats, not a wipe out by any means but a loss of power that may well get worse in the election after that. The pendulum has turned.
New roads that bypass towns at a higher speed limit both provide more capacity and convenience for drivers commuting a distance, and free up the local roads for local traffic, whether cars, buses or bicycles.
*it’s rather cynical politics because probably a lot of people aren’t affected by it in that they don’t own an affected vehicle. But it’s a bit like IHT - you can galvanise a lot of support of people that fear its impact than are actually measurably affected by it.
| NEW: Angela Rayner pins the blame on Sadiq Khan for Labour narrowly missing out on Uxbridge
“The decision in Uxbridge was related to Ulez. The Uxbridge result shows that when you don’t listen to the voters, you don’t win elections.”
https://twitter.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1682269537259999232?s=20
And yes, they could well be enticed to also be the face of "choke a baby"
Concrete over the Home Counties.
What could possibly go wrong?
Joking aside, you called it right, and very much against the odds.
Never mind Selby. Who knows what happened there. And Somerton can be discounted as that’s just Lib Dems winning a mid term by-election. The big story is Uxbridge.
I must say there’s also been woeful expectation management by Labour. How on earth have they managed to make a 20%+ swing in Yorkshire seem widely expected and nailed on? That should have been the shock result of the night.
Will that persist in the General Election ?
More traffic is a good thing. It's more transportation, more activity, more convenience, more business. Why oppose that?
More traffic spread over more roads is less traffic per road, not more, overall like a supermarket opening extra checkouts not forcing everyone through just one checkout.
The private car is only unsustainable if you haven't considered every other option which is even less sustainable.
I live in the UK's most congested city, Edinburgh, yet we have the the best public transport system in Scotland and the city is about as walkable as they come. Cycling is getting there. A small, rich minority cause congestion for everyone else.
There are very few reasons for driving here or in central London. But very large chunks of the population don't have this opportunity to make the switch. Public transport and walking cycling provision in our regional cities is pathetic - compare Liverpool to any French city. That has to come first.
What Khan and others need to do is to offer this carrot, and fast. We could have fully funded HS2 if we hadn't frozen fuel duty over the last few years. We need to explain that building more roads induces more demand, rather than sating it.
So LAB to get the overall majority or maybe fall just short, Keir will be PM in any case as LAB will do a deal with LDs, their 20-25 seats will be enough to provide a stable government through confidence and supply.
I don’t think anyone is seriously suggesting replacing cars with bikes for long journeys. But most people don’t make long journeys that often.
Let’s be careful though, this thread carries an increasing risk of becoming about WFH.
On the swing from last night's by elections as Bart said last night you would think Sir Ed Davey was heading for PM more than Sir Keir. Sir Keir will decide his Selby win with a Blairite youngster but Uxbridge loss with an inner London candidate due to Khan's ULEZ means he needs to ignore the left even more I suspect
Yes, cars can travel faster. Quite a lot of the time. But those gains in speed get swallowed up- and then some- by the increased distances you have to build into your towns and cities to make cars work in them.