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The Tories hang on in Hillingdon in massive blow to LAB – politicalbetting.com
The Tories hang on in Hillingdon in massive blow to LAB – politicalbetting.com
As was not expected judging by the betting markets the Tories held on to the Hillingdon seat in the overnight by-elections in what surely is a big glow to Labour. At this stage before a general election Starmer’s party should have been taking seats like this with some ease. This was also in Greater London where the party generally does well.
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Congratulations to @HYUFD who said the conservatives would hold Uxbridge
Also a lot of humble pie is needed by all those who dismissed ULEZ as an issue
In the wider context the war against the car is not labour's friend
It prompted me to put £50 on the Conservatives to hold Uxbridge, at 9-1.
And I actually think Starmer will be quietly pleased with the Uxbridge result. He can tell his party “see, look what happens when you piss off the voters.”
The new MP Steve Tuckwell seemed slightly surprised as well. Perhaps not a classic paper candidate but I wonder if he has business to quickly wrap up.
Uxbridge is nothing to do with Starmer. It's ULEZ, and what happens when socialists become authoritarian.
Well done to @HYUFD
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-66231548
It's actually helpful for him. It will bolster his centrist agenda.
Big win for LAB in Selby. It's not a natural LAB area and it is a 1995/6 style swing which will concern CON. I still think it is CON voters staying at home rather than enduring enthusiasm for Keir.
LDs in Somerton and Frome. We have seen this so often since Orpington in 1962. It never has any real impact on a GE and won't this time.
My brother who is left-leaning lives in Kingston and he is MEGA pissed off with Sadiq Khan over Ulez. He has, indeed, just had to change his car.
I'm afraid this is what always happens with socialism ...
I think it's also the heavy handed manner in which it has been imposed. The time span was very short, with no leeway and Draconian penalties for failing to comply. It hit poorer people hardest, and those without adequate public transport backup.
It's everything authoritarian socialism does.
As you may know, I'm more of an anarchist. Anti-state. Anti-authority.
The Somerton win makes Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey is the first leader of any political party to win four by-elections since the 1990s, when Paddy Ashdown, founding leader of the Lib Dems, did so.
Labour won Selby and Ainsty, making history with the largest Conservative majority (20,137) overturned by Labour at a byelection since 1945.
Labour managed a swing of 23.7 points in Selby and Ainsty: the largest achieved by Labour at byelection since it won Dudley West from the Tories in December 1994 (29.1 points) and the second largest swing managed by Labour at a byelection since 1945.
However it remains that around 90% of vehicles are *already* compliant, so the number of voters actually affected will be very small. Not sure how it will play electorally - we'll see. I don't see it saving Tory bacon - the outraged gammon vote in Outer London is not imo dominant enough, though the Lib Dems will also play the populist tune.
Perhaps it's more interesting in the other cities which are introducing Low Emission Zones across the country. Those places where there has not been investment in public transport are perhaps exposed, though there's not a clear correlation.
This is a 2021 graphic, so it may have changed a little.
Having arrested and imprisoned all his political opponents, he cruised to victory winning all 125 seats in parliament. He has been in power for 38 years: the longest serving "PM" (aka Dictator) in the world.
Quite the feat for a former Khmer Rouge official who defected to Vietnam before the regime's fall.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-66231548
It does affect people. But even if it was really only 10%, it shows that you only need to make a small error in politics for your opponents to seize on it.
Starmer be warned.
It certainly played a part in Uxbridge and already we see calls to move the 2030 deadline for all new cars to be EV and here in Wales we have Drakeford cancelling all new road building, including the 3rd Menai crossing notwithstanding Holyhead is to become a free port, and the ideological change of all 30mph zones in Wales to 20mph by default
It will be interesting how this plays out over the next 15 months
Remember what happens when labour ignore WVM
I suspect the Uxbridge result is the biggest news story. Nick Ferrari will be having kittens, lucky he's on holiday.
Another take away of course is had Boris Johnson taken his medicine, allowed the recall and fought the seat, he MAY well have been in pole position to condemn Rishi for the losses in Frome and Selby. But alas he didn't have the backbone to fight his corner.
Or - in the real world - in any election there are outlier results. Tories on course to get demolished as voters swing behind whichever party can demolish them hardest.
Transport policy is a disaster nationally. There are too many cars, not enough infrastructure (including alternative transport). Driving anywhere is horrendous, particularly in cities. Now that the current Government in Westminster have learned anti - green, anti- safety issues win votes, it is a situation that will undoubtedly get worse.
After all, most of those measures are about reducing the harms that cars do. ULEZ attempts to deal with some specific localised air pollution. Reducing speed limits makes accidents less likely and less harmful. That sort of thing. Tilting the balance between the benefits drivers get from driving and the costs that society pays.
One lesson of Uxbridge is that, at least in some seats, that's politically unacceptable. And whilst there's something in the "wrong moment" argument, the experience is that car restraint measures are rarely popular in advance. And there are plenty of other measures that any government is going to have to take in the next few years.
Are will still so pampered as a nation that we're going to spit out any nasty medicine?
There is a not insignificant Indian population in the area, many of whom will have ‘moved up’ from neighbouring Southall. It is clear from numerous vox pops over last few weeks that they see Sunak as a kindred spirit and identify with his life story.
Think about that for a minute. Vast swings to ABC in solid blue places was so priced in that nobody bats an eyelid at a 5-figure Lab win in Selby.
The Tories issue remains that they are fighting a war on three fronts. To their own hard right where the loons insist they go deeper into madness. To Labour who now look set to sweep up loads of Blair's old seats. To the LibDems who look set to sweep up loads of Kennedy's old seats.
Narrowly holding Uxbridge could be a bad result for the Tories if they read the wrong message from it. ULEZ-foaming loses them the mayoral - that is clear as there just aren't enough well-to-do voters with weekend cars in not-really-London suburbs to swing it. Not when most of London wants the pollution to stop making their kids ill.
Shame about Uxbridge. Cynical from the Tories, making it a referendum on their government’s policy. But what do you expect.
Of course what he should be thinking is "if I enter the Mayoral race, I can split the Labour vote and deliver a ludicrous right-wing Lindon Mayor".
I bet the 800 voters who voted Green are kicking themselves.this morning.
The other factor in play could be the green vote. In 2019 we saw a stack of seats where ideological zealots cost the Tories a win by splitting the vote. I expect BJO to be crowing about the blessed Tory win - this will make for interesting viewing in the handful of tight seats where the pro-Tory crank left could be the deciding factor.
I said earlier this week it isn't the number of people it affects directly, so much as the notion of Khan's creeping nanny state. And as someone else said on here, it's not like new MP Steve Gammon can do anything about ULEZ expansion, other than moan about it.
But while Uxbridge will no doubt get the headlines (and provide some misdirected copium for the Tories), I think we’ve all taken for granted what an extraordinary overturn the Lib Dems have achieved in S&F as well.
Both portend an absolute battering at the general election.
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1682177053909450752?t=SuRKgw4T6PFlRsK7rF7EBQ&s=19
That is the way of politics.
It was nice to see Angela Rayner interviewed on BBC News and on the back foot over Uxbridge. Labour have had an easy ride recently.
That will be lost amongst the smog of ULEZ.
It reached all the way down the coast road and it was covering cars, lorries, vans, buses etc etc. It was scaled back and the number of vehicles dramatically reduced.
When Gateshead Council implemented a ludicrous anti car scheme to stop traffic going down Askew Road to get to the Tyne bridge there was widespread opposition to that too and although that part of the scheme stayed other parts of it were abandoned,
Fighting this schemes that are implemented to inconvenience people with minimal consultation may well be smarr politically,
Maybe people should listen to @HYUFD more rather than just take the piss out of him?
He does way more for the party than I do.
A few hundred is all you need to hold some seats so of course it's relevant. But is it repeatable? If the Tories take "let's go to war against the green lobby" from Uxbridge then it just heightens the 5-figure majorities that Labour / LD will take off them at the GE.
Interesting to see the Greens do so well, gaining vote share in all 3 by-elections and getting over 10% in Somerton & Frome.
And we need to remember that the whole thing is the result of a Supreme Court ruling in iirc 2015, to force Mr Cameron to address the question of pollution from private vehicles.
I think Khan's political process has been inept in some respects - I've argued before that it should have been extended to the North/South circular first. Perhaps he has not been aggressive enough politically in hanging the emissions measures around the Tory neck.
However I'd view the whole thing as 'something that needs to be done', for population health reasons. (Indeed, air quality was one of the reasons I left London back in the 2000s - concern about health conditions in that polluted environment.)
In terms of regulation of private vehicles, I think it's actually massively tolerant - essentially petrol cars subject to the ULEZ charge are those more than 17 years old, and diesel cars more than 7 years old.
I'm not convinced by the "poorer people" rhetoric from the Conservatives; I think they are scrabbling around for anything they can weaponise to save their bacon. Most people in London don't have private cars, and I'd suggest that poorer people are perhaps more likely to be those who can't afford them and are on the bus or walking - vehicles required for business perhaps being an exception.
I think they are trying to turn it into a personal freedom issue - a la Republicans in the USA. But these particular personal freedoms I don't think we have the luxury not to restrict.
There's been a similar peculiar rhetoric around "disabled people will be disadvantaged" on the LTN issue, whilst the small minority of disabled people who have a private vehicle tend to be the more privileged part of the group.
A nice twist of the knife sticking out of Johnson, too, that his party held the seat that he was too scared to fight.
I drive into the city every day and would probably be forced to use the bus or move if/when its extended…
Still not convinced its the wrong policy though.
He's just unable to admit when he's wrong on any other subject and he frequently is, which makes him look silly.
Suspect ULEZ is the real issue.
https://twitter.com/BBCr4today/status/1682272534551461888?t=peCMFE5rExTfyHOg6gI_qA&s=19
So far, so typical for dreams. But then Boris Johnson swaggers along, lies down and holds onto the man's hands in a photogenic attempt at a rescue. The the road below Johnson collapses, and all I see below its surface are his hands holding onto the tarmac and his tousled hair floating on the water's surface.
Needless to say, this woke me up, and I checked my phone to see the result of the Uxbridge by-election had come through, an Boris's wizard wheeze to damage Sunak had collapsed.
A weird dream with weird timing, and the only (and I hope to God last) time I've ever dreams about Boris Johnson...
@HYUFD emerged from last night with considerable credit and I am someone who is his regular critic
I've always found him scrupulously objective when it comes to reports about canvassing.
His report was as illuminating as David Herdson's, on the eve of the 2017 election.
And while it's a leap from there to the edge of London, it's understandable. The current ULEZ zone excludes lots of densely built up areas that would really benefit. And if you expand, the next obvious boundary is the edge of Greater London, with the M25 as your bypass route.
So- if not this scheme, what? And if not now, when?
HY cherry picks polls to show things aren't that bad actually and if you look here actually you will see the Tories are right actually. Which isn't correct.
Not can we set aside that Mr Holier-than-thou has a defective grasp on the faith he rams into everyone's faces, never mind the moral vacuum where literally any depravity can be supported of there is a vote in it.
He called Uxbridge. Which is insightful! But that doesn't make him right. Because it was ULEZ or if it was Hindu's then it isn't the government and it's 5 People's Priorities which he insists we all have top of mind. Steve Gammon didn't mention them at all in his campaign.
In general HYUFD makes a considerable contribution to this site. He is very knowledgeable on politics. He argues his case strongly and consistently and without getting aggressive even against often aggressive opponents.
👍
Sunak will obviously be worried, but hanging on in Uxbridge means that there's little danger of the Tories moving to replace him and as he has no obvious ideas to turn things round it's hard to see what difference it will make.
The person who comes out worst is Boris Johnson. He's not only been found guilty of repeatedly lying to Parliament, but will now be told he could have held Uxbridge (I don't think he could have, by the way - his candidacy would have seen enough voters switch to deliver the seat to Labour).
Which is extremely funny.
We are still 15 months away from a GE and events happen, including what happens in Scotland to the SNP
All these Hindu voters in their 20 year old diesels made the difference.
Well done comrade!
If their issue was ULEZ they just got elected a pro-car anti-ULEZ MP and likely the weaponisation of it in the coming mayoral. Watch Mrs Trump pledge to scrap it if elected Mayor.
Driving anywhere, except a tiny minority of the country in inner cities, is pleasant and convenient. Not horrendous.
Driving is the most freeing, the most liberating, the most self-controlled means of transportation people have in the modern, developed world.
Relying upon others, on 'public transportation' is a farce and a pathetic joke outside of a tiny number of metropolises, and it always will be.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with private transportation. Either environmentally, once we switch to clean technologies, or progressively, or for a matter of convenience.
That doesn’t mean he’s right about anything else though.
You have to accept though that it is going to take something extraordinary to turn this around for the Tories. Everything is possible in politics! It's just increasingly unlikely...