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A Missed Opportunity – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,217
edited July 2023 in General
imageA Missed Opportunity – politicalbetting.com

It is not easy for a Cabinet Minister to make a good impression or even achieve very much. Staying out of trouble is a high bar these days. Maybe much worthwhile work is being done behind the scenes without much, if any, publicity. Still, ambitious politicians need to make the best of whatever opportunities present themselves. So let’s look at one of those vying to be Tory party leader and PM barely a year ago: Kemi Badenoch.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • PeckPeck Posts: 517
    FPT
    kinabalu said:

    Peck said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    Heathener said:

    Something about Value

    A few people below (e.g. @david_herdson) commented that 87% is too high and 'represents value' for betting against.

    From my punting POV I wish to beat windward against these winds.

    Unless you are betting on the spreads, where you can trade your position, a fixed price bet against the market is only 'value' if you know something the market doesn't.

    A 10% chance of winning a political bet does not mean that 1 time in 10 you will win your bet. There is no law of averages. Every time you bet you still only have, according to the market, a 10% chance. When you've lost 9 times in a row, you are no more likely to win the 10th time than 10%.

    luv ya

    xx

    I don't think I understand your point. Are you saying that if you think the chances of event x happening are 25%, and the bookies have the odds of that happening as 10-1, you still shouldn't bet because it's still unlikely to happen? If so, I don't agree.

    And if you place ten bets at 10%, yes, you would expect to win one time in ten, over the course of a sufficiently large number of bets, minus the bookies' overround, assuming the bookies have priced the event correctly.

    It's just the same as betting on the roll of a dice. Being offered odds of, say, 33% on rolling a six is good value and worth a bet. The fact that the six is unlikely to come up is not the issue.

    If your point is that rolling a non-six five times in a row won't make the sixth roll a six, well I agree. But I don't think that affects value.
    You are correct. If the chance of something happening is IYO much greater than the odds imply you should bet on it.

    But still not beyond what you can afford to lose. Eg, if I pull a coin (not a trick one) from my pocket and I offer you 3/1 against you calling the toss right you should take me up on the offer and suggest a big stake. It's fabulous value for you.

    But if I say the stake has to be VERY big, let's say equal to your entire net worth, now you have to turn down this great money-making opportunity because if you lose you're ruined.

    This is one of the (many) reasons it's easy to make money if you have loads to start with - and so hard if you don't.
    Yep.

    Finance capital, aka the filthy rich always getting a return, will eventually go pop though for the same reason that martingale strategies in the casino don't work. Always bet on value...bet on value...oh dear I had to stake everything and look what happened.

    Those who don't already know it may be interested in the Kelly criterion:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion
    The 'doubling up on red and start after 3 blacks in a row' technique for roulette is very seductive even as you know it's bollox.

    Or is it? Maybe not always. Consider this:

    You have £100 in the world and you simply MUST turn it into £120 because you owe Reggie Kray £120 and he's going to nail your scrotum to a coffee table if you don't pay in full. No point offering him £100. That'll make him even more angry. He'll think you're taking the piss. Disrespecting him. Disrespecting his mother.

    He's coming to your place at midnight for the money. It's 6 pm now. You have no mates or family and can't borrow.

    Solution: Hit the casino. Do the above technique assiduously (at £1 per spin) until you either lose the £100 or make the £20. You're more likely to make the £20 than lose the £100. If you make the £20 you're saved. You pay Reg and resolve to live better from now on. If you lose the £100, well you're no worse off. It's flat/win and flat/wins make sense.
    That's an excellent training question. It's in the category of those that mislead by containing superfluous information. We could just say if you are up Nick Leeson creek then make a Hail Mary trade, aka sh*t or bust.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,769
    Great header, as always Cyclefree, if profoundly depressing.

    However:

    As for Badenoch, she can join the list of Tory hopefuls with more ego than achievement to their name.

    Wouldn't it be quicker to list the ones who were the other way around?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Second. Whatever happened to the noble tradition of pointless numbered posts at the outset?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,769
    DougSeal said:

    Second. Whatever happened to the noble tradition of pointless numbered posts at the outset?

    The time honoured tradition of putting the wrong number on seems to be going well.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,769
    FPT, on the subject of emails and typos:

    At Aber, the way emails were worked was, staff had their initials, postgrads had a double year of start next to their name (so if you started in 2005 it would be ano05) and undergrads had a single number (so ano5). It was simple and effective. (I had all three at different times.)

    One day, a young lady had passed a most enjoyable evening with her boyfriend. They seem to have explored many different - ahem - avenues. And in the morning she was still buzzing and sent him an email describing it in detail and saying how much she loved him.

    Alas, she forgot to put the number on the end of the email address.

    Her boyfriend had the same initials as the Dean of Arts.

    Fortunately, all involved had a lively sense of humour.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    Second. Whatever happened to the noble tradition of pointless numbered posts at the outset?

    The time honoured tradition of putting the wrong number on seems to be going well.
    I thought less people were making that mistake these days.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,769
    Pulpstar said:

    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    Second. Whatever happened to the noble tradition of pointless numbered posts at the outset?

    The time honoured tradition of putting the wrong number on seems to be going well.
    I thought less people were making that mistake these days.
    You couldn't be more wrong.
  • jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 790
    Great header, @Cyclefree, it's baffling that this hasn't cut through more - surely everyone knows the local subpostmaster?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,256
    Incidentally, what does FLSW stand for ?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,769
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Great header, as always Cyclefree, if profoundly depressing.

    However:

    As for Badenoch, she can join the list of Tory hopefuls with more ego than achievement to their name.

    Wouldn't it be quicker to list the ones who were the other way around?

    The only thing wrong with the header is that it is, if anything, overgenerous to Badenoch.
    The gaming of the enquiry by the PO and it's legal representatives is pretty blatant, and the minister is the only one with the clout to address that.
    Are we sure it is the PO, and not the government, that is gaming the enquiry?

    Because it looks to me as though there's more manoeuvres in the background to protect the bosses *of* the PO rather than *at* the PO.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,148

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Not any family holidays I've taken. Or, I suspect, 90% of the electorate.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1680954500100640768
    .@GillianKeegan: “Most of our private schools are nothing like Eton or Harrow, they’re far smaller and they charge a lot less. Many cost the same as a family holiday abroad”

    I know averages can be deceptive but how many families who use private schools *don't* have a hol abroad?

    In answer to the second question, a very large number. It was one of the things you noticed in the mid-level private schools I worked in and with, that many of the children talked about their camping holidays in Devon.

    I don't take foreign holidays myself very often (I haven't left the country since Covid hit) so I don't know how much they cost these days. However, prep school fees often hover around the £5-6,000 mark which doesn't sound ridiculously out of line for a family holiday in a tourist hotspot in say Spain.

    Keegan is an idiot but she isn't making a stupid point here. Far too much discourse about private schools is skewed towards the top end, not considering the cheaper end.

    That has rather different problems of its own that need addressing but they never get talked about.
    Are you sure about your figure of £5k-£6k? From what I can see that is the typical average PER TERM. In which case £15k would get you a good holiday in Europe.
    £15k is now about average day school fees. Inflation in school fees has been running a lot higher than inflation in holidays for quite some time. Back in my day(!) three decades ago, a week in Majorca for a family was about the same as the year’s school fees.

    Add me to the list of PBers who had one foreign holiday in seven years while attending a private secondary school. It’s a decision made by many, many parents in that boat.
    Is there a list of PBers who never set foot outside the UK until they turned 20 and whose parents would never even have considered sending them to private school? (State grammar and a week camping in Wales for me)
    It's a bit four Yorkshiremen on here this morning.
    My parents starved to death to send me to private school.
    But it was worth it.
    My parents kept me in a comp. Didn't even try to send me to a grammar school.

    And they never took me abroad until I was 19.

    Did it bother me? Not much. Didn't particularly want to go abroad. I suffer from heat migraines very easily so the idea of hot summers was not appealing.

    Would I have done better academically at a private school? Almost certainly. There was a significant problem with disruption in my local school that I wouldn't have had elsewhere. And you do see some quite stupid people who went to private schools getting on well in exams and careers.

    But would have I enjoyed it? Probably not very much. I don't like commuting and my local comp was literally at the end of my road whereas the nearest private school was a ten mile bus ride.
    I think this is probably my main personal issue with private schools - the advancement of the mediocre. We see it most obviously in our current government, half of whom I wouldn’t trust to make a cup of tea.
    That I would agree with.

    Which is one reason why I've always been adamant the way to get rid of them is to cut class sizes in the state sector dramatically. That would first, eliminate the edge private schools have and second, really improve education outcomes (much though I hate that cliche) for everyone.
    The strange element in the debate about private and state education is the lack of interest in the actual issue.

    Which is the better educational outcomes achieved by private schools.

    At this point the debate generally devolves to Olympic swimming pools, thick poshos and my favourite - “Over education”.

    Has anyone actually done a study on the effect of reducing class size without changing anything else?

    Edit : The reason for the avoidance of the issue is obvious, to me.
    Not in this country.

    That would require you to reduce class sizes...
    Once worked at a comprehensive that bust an absolute gut to get down to 24 maximum. Basically all the discrecionary spend in the budget went on that. That was probably not enough to really make a difference (you don't really change much by going from 30 to 24 in a well run school... Suspect the threshold is when 24 becomes 18). It ended up as more a selling point than anything else, and some of the consequent austerities (nothing printed full size, ever) were maddening.

    Can't find the source, but I've seen it said that the key problem isn't so much staff as buildings. Cut the default class size from 30 to 20 and you need 50% more classrooms for the same number of children. And nobody has any intention of paying for that, especially in one go. Hence the use of TAs in primaries, to improve the adult:child ratio without changing the size of classes.
    What are the ranges of class size in private schools? 15 early on, with slack handfuls for some A level subjects?

    My eldest has ended up in a class of 2 for A level Spanish…
    In my experience, there comes a point where class sizes are too small - 2 for A-level Spanish, for example. That's because the benefits of being in a group large enough to engender healthy debate and discussion are lost. I reckon anything less than 6 is too small for the cut and thrust of teacher-pupil and pupil-pupil interactions and the sharing of different ideas to benefit learning.
    My education take that will make everyone hate me is that schools should just get out of the business of teaching A Levels, and do that in sixth form colleges instead. Lots of schools run A Level groups that are too small to be economic and probably aren't ideal from an educational point of view.

    Trouble is that teachers like their tiny sixth form class (I know I did) and parents are often up in arms at the very idea.
    Totally agree. State sixth-form colleges are the crème de la crème of our education system. Sadly, their numbers have reduced from just under 100 to around 50 as some have had to merge with FE colleges, and others have been academised into federations. Scandalous. Another example of clueless Tory education policies.
    We have sixth form colleges in our area (Surrey) and, whilst I agree that they are very good, my secondary school was very poor at advising me on what A Levels to pick. I was basically left to figure it out for myself. Sadly, by the time I realised what I should have picked, it was too late.
    That's a management problem, not a general institutional problem.
    A good sixth form college ought to sort that before it's too late, and facilitate a subject change.
    In my first Biology VI class back in the ‘50’s, the Headmaster suddenly appeared, saying to one of us “You’re not doing this F****; you can get a State Scholarship if you do Maths”.
    And led the lad out without a word to the teacher, who was Head of Biology!
    Mind you, the Head and the Biology master were known to hate each other!
    Gaming the system via subject choice is not unknown, for instance Dudley Moore's organ scholarship from working class Dagenham to Oxford, or Boris's sisters comments on the advantages of Latin and Greek for Oxford entry.
    Did Dudley 'game it'? I'd have thought getting awarded an Oxford organ scholarship was pretty darn difficult, and the man was hardly a shit musician.
    Nowadays the trick is supposed to be to switch from public school to local authority sixth form college to benefit from the potential for positive discrim
    I don't really understand the logic of this. A levels are the bit of your schooling that really matters, surely - it's what gets you into a good Uni. If you're willing to entrust your child to the state system for that, then why not the whole lot, save yourself a load of money (and, for some, guilt) and give your childten the enormous benefit of learning among a diverse cross section of their fellow citizens?
    As said above, you tutor on the side to deliver the grades, and rely on the Oxbridge college wanting to maintain its decent 'not from public school' percentage to deliver the offer
    Why not just encourage your child to work hard, trust their teachers and let them find their own level? Kids who are hot-housed and spoon fed to get into top Unis will typically underperform there. I never got any tuition and we've not got any for our children.
    Ah yes, the "hot-housed and spoon fed" argument.

    Jessica Ennis-Hill shouldn't have bothered with all that ghastly over training. Once round the track on a weekend does just fine.

    If you want state schools to catch up with private school results, effort and money will be required.

    Take a look at the educational rankings internationally. Then look at the what the state schools manage.
    Money is up to the government. If you think that teachers at state schools aren't putting in any effort then I'm afraid you are showing your ignorance. Their dedication in the face of terrible pay and conditions is incredible.
    Private schools aren't training their kids to become great athletes, they are more like a combination of performance enhancing drugs and letting some competitors start the race half way round the track. That's why state school kids tend to do better at uni. I saw it when I was at university, some private school kids were very bright, but a lot had obviously been coached over the line and really shouldn't have been there.
    It's not about individual effort by teachers. it's about numbers and resources.

    What private schools are doing is attempting to create as much educational attainment as possible, with more resources.

    If the same methodology was applied to the state school sector, then you would get similar results.

    With the caveat of streaming the angry ones who are determined to disrupt others educations out of the way of the bright.

    Without the private sector, educational attainment in this country would be held up for stark international comparison.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,148
    OT: This reminds me of the Hillsborough saga. Too many people at too high a level are implicated, so the can must be kicked by all The Proper People until it all fades away.

    I will be willing to bet that this includes substantial amounts of lying and distortion (see Hillsborough) *internally*.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,148
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Great header, as always Cyclefree, if profoundly depressing.

    However:

    As for Badenoch, she can join the list of Tory hopefuls with more ego than achievement to their name.

    Wouldn't it be quicker to list the ones who were the other way around?

    The only thing wrong with the header is that it is, if anything, overgenerous to Badenoch.
    The gaming of the enquiry by the PO and it's legal representatives is pretty blatant, and the minister is the only one with the clout to address that.
    Are we sure it is the PO, and not the government, that is gaming the enquiry?

    Because it looks to me as though there's more manoeuvres in the background to protect the bosses *of* the PO rather than *at* the PO.
    I think that Hillsborough is the playbook.

    Remember ACPO telling Cameron when he entered Downing Street that allowing the Hillsborough enquiries to proceed would be anti-police?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,256
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Great header, as always Cyclefree, if profoundly depressing.

    However:

    As for Badenoch, she can join the list of Tory hopefuls with more ego than achievement to their name.

    Wouldn't it be quicker to list the ones who were the other way around?

    The only thing wrong with the header is that it is, if anything, overgenerous to Badenoch.
    The gaming of the enquiry by the PO and it's legal representatives is pretty blatant, and the minister is the only one with the clout to address that.
    Are we sure it is the PO, and not the government, that is gaming the enquiry?

    Because it looks to me as though there's more manoeuvres in the background to protect the bosses *of* the PO rather than *at* the PO.
    Your guess is as good as mine.
    But the PO certainly are.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    Second. Whatever happened to the noble tradition of pointless numbered posts at the outset?

    The time honoured tradition of putting the wrong number on seems to be going well.
    You call it the wrong number, I say grade inflation
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,328

    Great header, @Cyclefree, it's baffling that this hasn't cut through more - surely everyone knows the local subpostmaster?

    If the state can behave like this to subpostmasters or to victims of blood contamination or to Windrush immigrants etc etc, then they can do it to any one of us.

    I am losing confidence in the ability or willingness of the state to do anything properly. Or that a change of government will make any difference. It would manage to miss the floor if it fell out of bed.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,256
    Labour committee chair also now on the case.

    Post Office Horizon inquiry reaction: Business Committee Chair Darren Jones
    https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/365/business-and-trade-committee/news/196539/post-office-horizon-inquiry-reaction-business-committee-chair-darren-jones/
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,769
    edited July 2023
    Cyclefree said:

    Great header, @Cyclefree, it's baffling that this hasn't cut through more - surely everyone knows the local subpostmaster?

    If the state can behave like this to subpostmasters or to victims of blood contamination or to Windrush immigrants etc etc, then they can do it to any one of us.

    I am losing confidence in the ability or willingness of the state to do anything properly. Or that a change of government will make any difference. It would manage to miss the floor if it fell out of bed.
    If I am ever passing the Lakes, we shall have to meet to swap stories. Even you will scarcely believe the disasters the DfE have just wrought over a safeguarding breach by one of their staff.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,148
    Nigelb said:

    I might have been slightly unfair to the chair.
    Who appears, finally, to have lost patience with the PO too.

    Sir Wyn gives determination on Post Office disclosure failings
    https://www.postofficehorizoninquiry.org.uk/news/sir-wyn-gives-determination-post-office-disclosure-failings
    Sir Wyn Williams has announced today that all future Inquiry requests for evidence to the Post Office will carry a notice under Section 21 of the Inquiries Act 2005, which he said “carries a threat of a criminal sanction” (including a sentence of up to 51 weeks’ imprisonment).

    The announcement follows an urgent disclosure hearing the Chair convened on Tuesday 11 July to address what he called “grossly unsatisfactory” disclosure failings by the Post Office.

    After hearing submissions from legal representatives of former sub-postmasters, the Post Office and the National Federation of SubPostmasters, Sir Wyn decided to postpone hearing from witnesses due to give evidence in weeks commencing 10 and 17 July 2023, until relevant disclosure was complete. He writes: “I was clear in my mind that this represented the best way forward both in relation to evidence gathering but also, ultimately, in relation to the most efficacious use of the Inquiry’s time.”

    Sir Wyn has also today issued further Directions to the Post Office, which state that he will hold a further disclosure hearing on 5 September 2023 at 10:00am. He said Post Office’s General Counsel, Ben Foat, will be required to attend to give further evidence and Sir Wyn will determine who, if anyone else, should give evidence after making further enquiries of the Post Office as to the identity of senior persons who are directly and substantially involved in the disclosure for Phase 4 of the Inquiry.

    He also said it is probable that from now on he will treat the issue of disclosure as he has treated the issue of compensation, by holding regular discrete hearings. He anticipates disclosure hearings will be held at regular intervals throughout the remainder of the Inquiry.

    In his determination, Sir Wyn says “I stress, of course, that holding such hearings should be unnecessary and they will, inevitably, impact upon the smooth running of the Inquiry, and will impact on the work of all Core Participants and the Inquiry team.”

    He said the hearings have become necessary, because of the “significant failures in disclosure on the part of the Post Office”.
    ..

    Good news
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,256
    If you look at the government scope document for the enquiry, it was originally supposed to issue a final report last autumn.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/post-office-horizon-it-inquiry-2020/terms-of-reference#
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,393
    Nigelb said:

    Incidentally, what does FLSW stand for ?

    Probably Fellow of the Learned Society of Wales. The Welsh equivalent of the RSE and RS[London].
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,148
    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Great header, @Cyclefree, it's baffling that this hasn't cut through more - surely everyone knows the local subpostmaster?

    If the state can behave like this to subpostmasters or to victims of blood contamination or to Windrush immigrants etc etc, then they can do it to any one of us.

    I am losing confidence in the ability or willingness of the state to do anything properly. Or that a change of government will make any difference. It would manage to miss the floor if it fell out of bed.
    If I am ever passing the Lakes, we shall have to meet to swap stories. Even you will scarcely believe the disasters the DfE have just wrought over a safeguarding breach by on of their staff.
    Write a book. If you are worried about being sued, you can claim it is all fiction.

    From the last thread - @Dura_Ace, take a leaf out of George MacDonald Fraser's work and write a book that is nominally fiction.

    There was a very good one about Arnhem from many years ago - claimed to be a novel, but was universally said by those who were there, to be based on truth.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,256
    Nigelb said:

    If you look at the government scope document for the enquiry, it was originally supposed to issue a final report last autumn.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/post-office-horizon-it-inquiry-2020/terms-of-reference#

    Sorry - it was originally supposed to be in 2021. Autumn 2022 was the amended, delayed target:
    https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/6070/documents/68239/default/
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,714
    Kemi will lead the Tories one day. Dan Hodges was adamant about that.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,769

    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Great header, @Cyclefree, it's baffling that this hasn't cut through more - surely everyone knows the local subpostmaster?

    If the state can behave like this to subpostmasters or to victims of blood contamination or to Windrush immigrants etc etc, then they can do it to any one of us.

    I am losing confidence in the ability or willingness of the state to do anything properly. Or that a change of government will make any difference. It would manage to miss the floor if it fell out of bed.
    If I am ever passing the Lakes, we shall have to meet to swap stories. Even you will scarcely believe the disasters the DfE have just wrought over a safeguarding breach by on of their staff.
    Write a book. If you are worried about being sued, you can claim it is all fiction.

    From the last thread - @Dura_Ace, take a leaf out of George MacDonald Fraser's work and write a book that is nominally fiction.

    There was a very good one about Arnhem from many years ago - claimed to be a novel, but was universally said by those who were there, to be based on truth.
    It couldn't possibly be better fiction than the DfE's website.
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,049
    edited July 2023
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,393

    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Great header, @Cyclefree, it's baffling that this hasn't cut through more - surely everyone knows the local subpostmaster?

    If the state can behave like this to subpostmasters or to victims of blood contamination or to Windrush immigrants etc etc, then they can do it to any one of us.

    I am losing confidence in the ability or willingness of the state to do anything properly. Or that a change of government will make any difference. It would manage to miss the floor if it fell out of bed.
    If I am ever passing the Lakes, we shall have to meet to swap stories. Even you will scarcely believe the disasters the DfE have just wrought over a safeguarding breach by on of their staff.
    Write a book. If you are worried about being sued, you can claim it is all fiction.

    From the last thread - @Dura_Ace, take a leaf out of George MacDonald Fraser's work and write a book that is nominally fiction.

    There was a very good one about Arnhem from many years ago - claimed to be a novel, but was universally said by those who were there, to be based on truth.
    Was that The Cauldron, by Zeno? Dim memories of it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,148
    Cyclefree said:

    Great header, @Cyclefree, it's baffling that this hasn't cut through more - surely everyone knows the local subpostmaster?

    If the state can behave like this to subpostmasters or to victims of blood contamination or to Windrush immigrants etc etc, then they can do it to any one of us.

    I am losing confidence in the ability or willingness of the state to do anything properly. Or that a change of government will make any difference. It would manage to miss the floor if it fell out of bed.
    It is all about protecting The System. See all the way back past Aberfan, to the Crimea (and beyond), lightly touching on HMS Captain and HMS Victoria on the way, Among many others.

  • jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 790
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Great header, @Cyclefree, it's baffling that this hasn't cut through more - surely everyone knows the local subpostmaster?

    If the state can behave like this to subpostmasters or to victims of blood contamination or to Windrush immigrants etc etc, then they can do it to any one of us.

    I am losing confidence in the ability or willingness of the state to do anything properly. Or that a change of government will make any difference. It would manage to miss the floor if it fell out of bed.
    I hope - naively I know - that if Badenoch seeks the leadership again some journalist will read this and ask her - and keep on bloody asking her until she gives a proper answer not some fluent bullshit - why she did not do any of the things she could be doing that I've listed here.
    Sadly the media, like the government, don't seem to have a longterm memory. If it happened more than a week ago, or when the interviewee was in a different role, it might as well have not happened
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,975
    Taz said:
    On the day Manchester United sign a convicted doper for £47 million.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,769
    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Incidentally, what does FLSW stand for ?

    Probably Fellow of the Learned Society of Wales. The Welsh equivalent of the RSE and RS[London].
    I thought it might be a variation on @Dura_Ace 's FLSOJ - I came up with Fat Lying Sack of Wank.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Taz said:
    At least he'll have the full support of his family.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,148
    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Great header, @Cyclefree, it's baffling that this hasn't cut through more - surely everyone knows the local subpostmaster?

    If the state can behave like this to subpostmasters or to victims of blood contamination or to Windrush immigrants etc etc, then they can do it to any one of us.

    I am losing confidence in the ability or willingness of the state to do anything properly. Or that a change of government will make any difference. It would manage to miss the floor if it fell out of bed.
    If I am ever passing the Lakes, we shall have to meet to swap stories. Even you will scarcely believe the disasters the DfE have just wrought over a safeguarding breach by on of their staff.
    Write a book. If you are worried about being sued, you can claim it is all fiction.

    From the last thread - @Dura_Ace, take a leaf out of George MacDonald Fraser's work and write a book that is nominally fiction.

    There was a very good one about Arnhem from many years ago - claimed to be a novel, but was universally said by those who were there, to be based on truth.
    Was that The Cauldron, by Zeno? Dim memories of it.
    Yes.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,328
    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Great header, @Cyclefree, it's baffling that this hasn't cut through more - surely everyone knows the local subpostmaster?

    If the state can behave like this to subpostmasters or to victims of blood contamination or to Windrush immigrants etc etc, then they can do it to any one of us.

    I am losing confidence in the ability or willingness of the state to do anything properly. Or that a change of government will make any difference. It would manage to miss the floor if it fell out of bed.
    If I am ever passing the Lakes, we shall have to meet to swap stories. Even you will scarcely believe the disasters the DfE have just wrought over a safeguarding breach by one of their staff.
    You would be very welcome. I'd look forward to that.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,975
    On topic as someone who followed the Hillsborough scandal and inquiry with great interest the parallels here are scarily repetitive.

    We need the likes of Andy Burnham, David Cameron, and Dominic Grieve to sort it out.

    Instead we get Kemi Badenoch and Suella Braverman.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,975
    Is OGH on holiday soon?


  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,975

    Is OGH on holiday soon?


    Trump says he expects indictment in 2020 election probe

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-66236837
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,148

    Is OGH on holiday soon?


    He will be arrested. Then bailed. A trial will start in about 2 years time. So plenty of time for him to get re-elected....

    The arrest will actually increase his support.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,328
    edited July 2023

    Cyclefree said:

    Great header, @Cyclefree, it's baffling that this hasn't cut through more - surely everyone knows the local subpostmaster?

    If the state can behave like this to subpostmasters or to victims of blood contamination or to Windrush immigrants etc etc, then they can do it to any one of us.

    I am losing confidence in the ability or willingness of the state to do anything properly. Or that a change of government will make any difference. It would manage to miss the floor if it fell out of bed.
    It is all about protecting The System. See all the way back past Aberfan, to the Crimea (and beyond), lightly touching on HMS Captain and HMS Victoria on the way, Among many others.

    I know. I wrote here about Aberfan and the cruelty perpetrated by the authorities on the families and survivors. It touches on other scandals, including this one.

    https://www.cyclefree.co.uk/the-price-of-indifference/

    But I will never stop being furious about this.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,148

    On topic as someone who followed the Hillsborough scandal and inquiry with great interest the parallels here are scarily repetitive.

    We need the likes of Andy Burnham, David Cameron, and Dominic Grieve to sort it out.

    Instead we get Kemi Badenoch and Suella Braverman.

    It's how this kind of thing always goes.

    Remember how no-one was held to account for Rotherham?

    I do wonder what would have happened if ACPO hadn't put Camerons back up with that meeting in No. 10.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,328

    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Great header, @Cyclefree, it's baffling that this hasn't cut through more - surely everyone knows the local subpostmaster?

    If the state can behave like this to subpostmasters or to victims of blood contamination or to Windrush immigrants etc etc, then they can do it to any one of us.

    I am losing confidence in the ability or willingness of the state to do anything properly. Or that a change of government will make any difference. It would manage to miss the floor if it fell out of bed.
    If I am ever passing the Lakes, we shall have to meet to swap stories. Even you will scarcely believe the disasters the DfE have just wrought over a safeguarding breach by on of their staff.
    Write a book. If you are worried about being sued, you can claim it is all fiction.

    From the last thread - @Dura_Ace, take a leaf out of George MacDonald Fraser's work and write a book that is nominally fiction.

    There was a very good one about Arnhem from many years ago - claimed to be a novel, but was universally said by those who were there, to be based on truth.
    I am doing just that about finance. Trouble is the truth really is stranger than fiction.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,148
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Great header, @Cyclefree, it's baffling that this hasn't cut through more - surely everyone knows the local subpostmaster?

    If the state can behave like this to subpostmasters or to victims of blood contamination or to Windrush immigrants etc etc, then they can do it to any one of us.

    I am losing confidence in the ability or willingness of the state to do anything properly. Or that a change of government will make any difference. It would manage to miss the floor if it fell out of bed.
    It is all about protecting The System. See all the way back past Aberfan, to the Crimea (and beyond), lightly touching on HMS Captain and HMS Victoria on the way, Among many others.

    I know. I wrote here about Aberfan and the cruelty perpetrated by the authorities on the families and survivors. It touches on other scandals, including this one.

    https://www.cyclefree.co.uk/the-price-of-indifference/

    But I will never stop being furious about this.
    Good

    We need to see is as part of a template - a way that the System tries to form a protective cyst around such events, rather than allowing real investigation. And real healing.

    What we need is members of the NU10K coming down the steps in handcuffs.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,148
    Cyclefree said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Great header, @Cyclefree, it's baffling that this hasn't cut through more - surely everyone knows the local subpostmaster?

    If the state can behave like this to subpostmasters or to victims of blood contamination or to Windrush immigrants etc etc, then they can do it to any one of us.

    I am losing confidence in the ability or willingness of the state to do anything properly. Or that a change of government will make any difference. It would manage to miss the floor if it fell out of bed.
    If I am ever passing the Lakes, we shall have to meet to swap stories. Even you will scarcely believe the disasters the DfE have just wrought over a safeguarding breach by on of their staff.
    Write a book. If you are worried about being sued, you can claim it is all fiction.

    From the last thread - @Dura_Ace, take a leaf out of George MacDonald Fraser's work and write a book that is nominally fiction.

    There was a very good one about Arnhem from many years ago - claimed to be a novel, but was universally said by those who were there, to be based on truth.
    I am doing just that about finance. Trouble is the truth really is stranger than fiction.
    Sign me up for a copy.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,869

    Kemi will lead the Tories one day. Dan Hodges was adamant about that.

    Possibly, but for the moment she's been done up like a kipper for doing what the gaffer tells her. I don't doubt that her lack of shiny achievements thus far is Sunak's doing to protect his 'leadership'. Braverman is the model to follow - be visibly straining on the leash to do your job, and dare the leadership to sack you. Braverman is now less vulnerable to a reshuffle than either Barclay or Badenoch, both of whom have been far more assiduously loyal than she has.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,869

    On topic as someone who followed the Hillsborough scandal and inquiry with great interest the parallels here are scarily repetitive.

    We need the likes of Andy Burnham, David Cameron, and Dominic Grieve to sort it out.

    Instead we get Kemi Badenoch and Suella Braverman.

    I didn't know they'd sorted that out - it's definitely one more thing than I'd heard they'd ever sorted out.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,328

    On topic as someone who followed the Hillsborough scandal and inquiry with great interest the parallels here are scarily repetitive.

    We need the likes of Andy Burnham, David Cameron, and Dominic Grieve to sort it out.

    Instead we get Kemi Badenoch and Suella Braverman.

    From Grieve to Braverman.

    The death of a once great party described in 4 words.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    Is OGH on holiday soon?


    He will be arrested. Then bailed. A trial will start in about 2 years time. So plenty of time for him to get re-elected....

    The arrest will actually increase his support.
    That's not a reason not to arrest him.
  • PeckPeck Posts: 517

    Cyclefree said:

    Great header, @Cyclefree, it's baffling that this hasn't cut through more - surely everyone knows the local subpostmaster?

    If the state can behave like this to subpostmasters or to victims of blood contamination or to Windrush immigrants etc etc, then they can do it to any one of us.

    I am losing confidence in the ability or willingness of the state to do anything properly. Or that a change of government will make any difference. It would manage to miss the floor if it fell out of bed.
    It is all about protecting The System. See all the way back past Aberfan, to the Crimea (and beyond), lightly touching on HMS Captain and HMS Victoria on the way, Among many others.

    The technical term is a c*ntocracy.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,679
    Yes, disappointing from Badenoch. Despite disliking her politics I'd formed a tentative impression of her as a tough, independently minded, able person. Turns out she's none of those things. Or if she is, the evidence isn't there to demonstrate it. The evidence is more that she's a shallow egotistical politician looking to surf culture war nonsense for advancement in the party. Ah well. It's the easier way, I suppose.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,106
    pledge delivered. Rishi stopped the boats !!

    @AliFortescue
    Excl: Two cruise ships pledged by PM in June to house 500 asylum seekers each (in addition to the Bibby Stockholm) returned to owner, snr source tells Sky. Understand they were refused docking in Liverpool and Edinburgh.

    Oh, wait
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173

    Great header, @Cyclefree, it's baffling that this hasn't cut through more - surely everyone knows the local subpostmaster?

    Really. Who on earth writes letters these days let alone go to a post office?
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,882
    ydoethur said:

    FPT, on the subject of emails and typos:

    At Aber, the way emails were worked was, staff had their initials, postgrads had a double year of start next to their name (so if you started in 2005 it would be ano05) and undergrads had a single number (so ano5). It was simple and effective. (I had all three at different times.)

    I'm showing my age, but in the 1990s, it was the other way around.

    I was sov96@aber.ac.uk as an undergraduate starting in 1996. Post graduates starting the same year would have been sov6@aber.ac.uk

    Interesting that it changed around.


  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    Greetings From Wawel Castle


  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,569

    Great header, @Cyclefree, it's baffling that this hasn't cut through more - surely everyone knows the local subpostmaster?

    Not sure they do, especially in urban areas. I visit the PO in Godalming maybe twice a year to send a registered letter or a large parcel. There's always a queue and they hurry you through briskly. I've never had the chance to chat to them or find out their names, let alone whether they were affected by the scandal. Isn't that sadly typical?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,769
    Cyclefree said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Great header, @Cyclefree, it's baffling that this hasn't cut through more - surely everyone knows the local subpostmaster?

    If the state can behave like this to subpostmasters or to victims of blood contamination or to Windrush immigrants etc etc, then they can do it to any one of us.

    I am losing confidence in the ability or willingness of the state to do anything properly. Or that a change of government will make any difference. It would manage to miss the floor if it fell out of bed.
    If I am ever passing the Lakes, we shall have to meet to swap stories. Even you will scarcely believe the disasters the DfE have just wrought over a safeguarding breach by one of their staff.
    You would be very welcome. I'd look forward to that.
    I will remember that next time I'm going to Scotland.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,679

    Is OGH on holiday soon?


    Trump says he expects indictment in 2020 election probe

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-66236837
    And Georgia. I make that 5. Plus the stuff still to come out. The 'unknown unknowns'. It'll get him in the end. I'm not sure he'll ever do jailtime, probably won't, but it's more likely he'll see the inside of a cell than the White House again. The lay at 3.5 is so good it should be illegal.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,393
    felix said:

    Great header, @Cyclefree, it's baffling that this hasn't cut through more - surely everyone knows the local subpostmaster?

    Really. Who on earth writes letters these days let alone go to a post office?
    The scandal hjas been going on for a very long time, since 1999.

    Many people were paid their pensions that way. Some still are.

    Many more still have to, to get at banking and cash (ANABOBAZINA TRIGGER WARNING) because of bank closures.

    And there are lots of things that can't be sent by a standard 1st or 2nd class stamp especially after RM monkeyed up the postal rates. It's just about possible to do it online but you need very accurate scales and be able to wait for the postie to collect.


  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,769
    Carnyx said:

    felix said:

    Great header, @Cyclefree, it's baffling that this hasn't cut through more - surely everyone knows the local subpostmaster?

    Really. Who on earth writes letters these days let alone go to a post office?
    The scandal hjas been going on for a very long time, since 1999.

    Many people were paid their pensions that way. Some still are.

    Many more still have to, to get at banking and cash (ANABOBAZINA TRIGGER WARNING) because of bank closures.

    And there are lots of things that can't be sent by a standard 1st or 2nd class stamp especially after RM monkeyed up the postal rates. It's just about possible to do it online but you need very accurate scales and be able to wait for the postie to collect.


    I've posted five letters and a parcel in the last week.

    Two trips to the Post Office.

    Once to Cannock, which was a stupid mistake as the queue's always a mile long.

    So the next time I went to Chadsmoor.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,393

    Great header, @Cyclefree, it's baffling that this hasn't cut through more - surely everyone knows the local subpostmaster?

    Not sure they do, especially in urban areas. I visit the PO in Godalming maybe twice a year to send a registered letter or a large parcel. There's always a queue and they hurry you through briskly. I've never had the chance to chat to them or find out their names, let alone whether they were affected by the scandal. Isn't that sadly typical?
    Is that the PO's own estabblishment? Surely the scandal is over the subpostmasters who own their own shops? Or do I misunderstand?
  • jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 790
    felix said:

    Great header, @Cyclefree, it's baffling that this hasn't cut through more - surely everyone knows the local subpostmaster?

    Really. Who on earth writes letters these days let alone go to a post office?
    Our local post office is always busy. I know the post mistress because she's heavily involved in the local community - running and coordinating events and acting as the local nexus for gossip about businesses.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,769
    edited July 2023
    Peck said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Great header, @Cyclefree, it's baffling that this hasn't cut through more - surely everyone knows the local subpostmaster?

    If the state can behave like this to subpostmasters or to victims of blood contamination or to Windrush immigrants etc etc, then they can do it to any one of us.

    I am losing confidence in the ability or willingness of the state to do anything properly. Or that a change of government will make any difference. It would manage to miss the floor if it fell out of bed.
    It is all about protecting The System. See all the way back past Aberfan, to the Crimea (and beyond), lightly touching on HMS Captain and HMS Victoria on the way, Among many others.

    The technical term is a c*ntocracy.
    On a point of order:

    I consider that remark unfair to c***s.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,679

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Not any family holidays I've taken. Or, I suspect, 90% of the electorate.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1680954500100640768
    .@GillianKeegan: “Most of our private schools are nothing like Eton or Harrow, they’re far smaller and they charge a lot less. Many cost the same as a family holiday abroad”

    I know averages can be deceptive but how many families who use private schools *don't* have a hol abroad?

    In answer to the second question, a very large number. It was one of the things you noticed in the mid-level private schools I worked in and with, that many of the children talked about their camping holidays in Devon.

    I don't take foreign holidays myself very often (I haven't left the country since Covid hit) so I don't know how much they cost these days. However, prep school fees often hover around the £5-6,000 mark which doesn't sound ridiculously out of line for a family holiday in a tourist hotspot in say Spain.

    Keegan is an idiot but she isn't making a stupid point here. Far too much discourse about private schools is skewed towards the top end, not considering the cheaper end.

    That has rather different problems of its own that need addressing but they never get talked about.
    Are you sure about your figure of £5k-£6k? From what I can see that is the typical average PER TERM. In which case £15k would get you a good holiday in Europe.
    £15k is now about average day school fees. Inflation in school fees has been running a lot higher than inflation in holidays for quite some time. Back in my day(!) three decades ago, a week in Majorca for a family was about the same as the year’s school fees.

    Add me to the list of PBers who had one foreign holiday in seven years while attending a private secondary school. It’s a decision made by many, many parents in that boat.
    Is there a list of PBers who never set foot outside the UK until they turned 20 and whose parents would never even have considered sending them to private school? (State grammar and a week camping in Wales for me)
    It's a bit four Yorkshiremen on here this morning.
    My parents starved to death to send me to private school.
    But it was worth it.
    My parents kept me in a comp. Didn't even try to send me to a grammar school.

    And they never took me abroad until I was 19.

    Did it bother me? Not much. Didn't particularly want to go abroad. I suffer from heat migraines very easily so the idea of hot summers was not appealing.

    Would I have done better academically at a private school? Almost certainly. There was a significant problem with disruption in my local school that I wouldn't have had elsewhere. And you do see some quite stupid people who went to private schools getting on well in exams and careers.

    But would have I enjoyed it? Probably not very much. I don't like commuting and my local comp was literally at the end of my road whereas the nearest private school was a ten mile bus ride.
    I think this is probably my main personal issue with private schools - the advancement of the mediocre. We see it most obviously in our current government, half of whom I wouldn’t trust to make a cup of tea.
    That I would agree with.

    Which is one reason why I've always been adamant the way to get rid of them is to cut class sizes in the state sector dramatically. That would first, eliminate the edge private schools have and second, really improve education outcomes (much though I hate that cliche) for everyone.
    The strange element in the debate about private and state education is the lack of interest in the actual issue.

    Which is the better educational outcomes achieved by private schools.

    At this point the debate generally devolves to Olympic swimming pools, thick poshos and my favourite - “Over education”.

    Has anyone actually done a study on the effect of reducing class size without changing anything else?

    Edit : The reason for the avoidance of the issue is obvious, to me.
    Not in this country.

    That would require you to reduce class sizes...
    Once worked at a comprehensive that bust an absolute gut to get down to 24 maximum. Basically all the discrecionary spend in the budget went on that. That was probably not enough to really make a difference (you don't really change much by going from 30 to 24 in a well run school... Suspect the threshold is when 24 becomes 18). It ended up as more a selling point than anything else, and some of the consequent austerities (nothing printed full size, ever) were maddening.

    Can't find the source, but I've seen it said that the key problem isn't so much staff as buildings. Cut the default class size from 30 to 20 and you need 50% more classrooms for the same number of children. And nobody has any intention of paying for that, especially in one go. Hence the use of TAs in primaries, to improve the adult:child ratio without changing the size of classes.
    What are the ranges of class size in private schools? 15 early on, with slack handfuls for some A level subjects?

    My eldest has ended up in a class of 2 for A level Spanish…
    In my experience, there comes a point where class sizes are too small - 2 for A-level Spanish, for example. That's because the benefits of being in a group large enough to engender healthy debate and discussion are lost. I reckon anything less than 6 is too small for the cut and thrust of teacher-pupil and pupil-pupil interactions and the sharing of different ideas to benefit learning.
    My education take that will make everyone hate me is that schools should just get out of the business of teaching A Levels, and do that in sixth form colleges instead. Lots of schools run A Level groups that are too small to be economic and probably aren't ideal from an educational point of view.

    Trouble is that teachers like their tiny sixth form class (I know I did) and parents are often up in arms at the very idea.
    Totally agree. State sixth-form colleges are the crème de la crème of our education system. Sadly, their numbers have reduced from just under 100 to around 50 as some have had to merge with FE colleges, and others have been academised into federations. Scandalous. Another example of clueless Tory education policies.
    We have sixth form colleges in our area (Surrey) and, whilst I agree that they are very good, my secondary school was very poor at advising me on what A Levels to pick. I was basically left to figure it out for myself. Sadly, by the time I realised what I should have picked, it was too late.
    That's a management problem, not a general institutional problem.
    A good sixth form college ought to sort that before it's too late, and facilitate a subject change.
    In my first Biology VI class back in the ‘50’s, the Headmaster suddenly appeared, saying to one of us “You’re not doing this F****; you can get a State Scholarship if you do Maths”.
    And led the lad out without a word to the teacher, who was Head of Biology!
    Mind you, the Head and the Biology master were known to hate each other!
    Gaming the system via subject choice is not unknown, for instance Dudley Moore's organ scholarship from working class Dagenham to Oxford, or Boris's sisters comments on the advantages of Latin and Greek for Oxford entry.
    Did Dudley 'game it'? I'd have thought getting awarded an Oxford organ scholarship was pretty darn difficult, and the man was hardly a shit musician.
    Nowadays the trick is supposed to be to switch from public school to local authority sixth form college to benefit from the potential for positive discrim
    I don't really understand the logic of this. A levels are the bit of your schooling that really matters, surely - it's what gets you into a good Uni. If you're willing to entrust your child to the state system for that, then why not the whole lot, save yourself a load of money (and, for some, guilt) and give your childten the enormous benefit of learning among a diverse cross section of their fellow citizens?
    As said above, you tutor on the side to deliver the grades, and rely on the Oxbridge college wanting to maintain its decent 'not from public school' percentage to deliver the offer
    Why not just encourage your child to work hard, trust their teachers and let them find their own level? Kids who are hot-housed and spoon fed to get into top Unis will typically underperform there. I never got any tuition and we've not got any for our children.
    Ah yes, the "hot-housed and spoon fed" argument.

    Jessica Ennis-Hill shouldn't have bothered with all that ghastly over training. Once round the track on a weekend does just fine.

    If you want state schools to catch up with private school results, effort and money will be required.

    Take a look at the educational rankings internationally. Then look at the what the state schools manage.
    Money is up to the government. If you think that teachers at state schools aren't putting in any effort then I'm afraid you are showing your ignorance. Their dedication in the face of terrible pay and conditions is incredible.
    Private schools aren't training their kids to become great athletes, they are more like a combination of performance enhancing drugs and letting some competitors start the race half way round the track. That's why state school kids tend to do better at uni. I saw it when I was at university, some private school kids were very bright, but a lot had obviously been coached over the line and really shouldn't have been there.
    It's not about individual effort by teachers. it's about numbers and resources.

    What private schools are doing is attempting to create as much educational attainment as possible, with more resources.

    If the same methodology was applied to the state school sector, then you would get similar results.

    With the caveat of streaming the angry ones who are determined to disrupt others educations out of the way of the bright.

    Without the private sector, educational attainment in this country would be held up for stark international comparison.
    The private sector creams off an advantaged intake and then spends far more per pupil. Of course this leads to better results. If you adjust for these factors to get a fair comparison their results are not better. They are, in fact, worse.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,106
    NEW POLL:

    Brits consider Brexit has failed by a ratio of 6 to 1, including a majority of those who voted to Leave. ~AA

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1681315073783123969?s=20
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,302
    Leon said:

    Greetings From Wawel Castle

    That reminds me that strawberries with pasta is one of Poland's national dishes. If you see 'makaron z truskawkami' on a menu, you can get something like this:

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,769

    ydoethur said:

    FPT, on the subject of emails and typos:

    At Aber, the way emails were worked was, staff had their initials, postgrads had a double year of start next to their name (so if you started in 2005 it would be ano05) and undergrads had a single number (so ano5). It was simple and effective. (I had all three at different times.)

    I'm showing my age, but in the 1990s, it was the other way around.

    I was sov96@aber.ac.uk as an undergraduate starting in 1996. Post graduates starting the same year would have been sov6@aber.ac.uk

    Interesting that it changed around.


    I was five years after you. Thinking back, there were some who were '99' that were undergrads, so it must have changed in 2000.

    The only curious anomaly was it was the date you started, not the date you started the current degree. So I was 1 then 01 all the way to 2009 when I got my one with initials only.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,148

    On topic as someone who followed the Hillsborough scandal and inquiry with great interest the parallels here are scarily repetitive.

    We need the likes of Andy Burnham, David Cameron, and Dominic Grieve to sort it out.

    Instead we get Kemi Badenoch and Suella Braverman.

    I didn't know they'd sorted that out - it's definitely one more thing than I'd heard they'd ever sorted out.
    By refusing to allow the various forces (ha) in the system to further prevent the enquiries (and reduce the rent of the enquiries).

    It was Hillsborough that caused some in the police to claim that the "Tory party is going to war with the Police". This was because Cameron refused to kick the enquiries into the long gras, at the express request of ACPO in a face to face meeting.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,569
    edited July 2023
    Carnyx said:

    Great header, @Cyclefree, it's baffling that this hasn't cut through more - surely everyone knows the local subpostmaster?

    Not sure they do, especially in urban areas. I visit the PO in Godalming maybe twice a year to send a registered letter or a large parcel. There's always a queue and they hurry you through briskly. I've never had the chance to chat to them or find out their names, let alone whether they were affected by the scandal. Isn't that sadly typical?
    Is that the PO's own estabblishment? Surely the scandal is over the subpostmasters who own their own shops? Or do I misunderstand?
    No, you're right. On reflection I don't think there even is a subpostmaster in our area. I think most small towns have one, but not urban areas? Obviously that doesn't mean we shouldn't be horrified by what Cyclefree describes, but it's not personal for most people, and that probably dampens the reaction.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    True story

    I was wandering around old Krakow half an hour ago. Marvelling at the beauty. Despite the fairly heavy tourism, It is one of the loveliest of cities

    ANYWAY at one point I looked up and saw this view



    And I thought Hey that’s the cathedral. And then I thought Hey that’s not just any old cathedral that’s the cathedral of Pope John Paul 2. One of the TRULY great men of history. The conqueror of communism

    And then I had a series of hefty thoughts about how Karol Wotyjla’s courage and faith and conviction must have been shaped in part by all this superb and heavenly architecture. You couldn’t live here without being a tad spiritual and of course when he
    was here the atheist commies were building
    hideous concrete shite - you’d have no doubt that faith and history and the Polish spirit are superior and would overcome the horror. So Cracow made John Paul II. It’s nobility forged his nobility

    And then I looked up and saw this



    I was having all these sudden thoughts about him outside his actual house. Spooooooky.


  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,679
    Peck said:

    FPT

    kinabalu said:

    Peck said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    Heathener said:

    Something about Value

    A few people below (e.g. @david_herdson) commented that 87% is too high and 'represents value' for betting against.

    From my punting POV I wish to beat windward against these winds.

    Unless you are betting on the spreads, where you can trade your position, a fixed price bet against the market is only 'value' if you know something the market doesn't.

    A 10% chance of winning a political bet does not mean that 1 time in 10 you will win your bet. There is no law of averages. Every time you bet you still only have, according to the market, a 10% chance. When you've lost 9 times in a row, you are no more likely to win the 10th time than 10%.

    luv ya

    xx

    I don't think I understand your point. Are you saying that if you think the chances of event x happening are 25%, and the bookies have the odds of that happening as 10-1, you still shouldn't bet because it's still unlikely to happen? If so, I don't agree.

    And if you place ten bets at 10%, yes, you would expect to win one time in ten, over the course of a sufficiently large number of bets, minus the bookies' overround, assuming the bookies have priced the event correctly.

    It's just the same as betting on the roll of a dice. Being offered odds of, say, 33% on rolling a six is good value and worth a bet. The fact that the six is unlikely to come up is not the issue.

    If your point is that rolling a non-six five times in a row won't make the sixth roll a six, well I agree. But I don't think that affects value.
    You are correct. If the chance of something happening is IYO much greater than the odds imply you should bet on it.

    But still not beyond what you can afford to lose. Eg, if I pull a coin (not a trick one) from my pocket and I offer you 3/1 against you calling the toss right you should take me up on the offer and suggest a big stake. It's fabulous value for you.

    But if I say the stake has to be VERY big, let's say equal to your entire net worth, now you have to turn down this great money-making opportunity because if you lose you're ruined.

    This is one of the (many) reasons it's easy to make money if you have loads to start with - and so hard if you don't.
    Yep.

    Finance capital, aka the filthy rich always getting a return, will eventually go pop though for the same reason that martingale strategies in the casino don't work. Always bet on value...bet on value...oh dear I had to stake everything and look what happened.

    Those who don't already know it may be interested in the Kelly criterion:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion
    The 'doubling up on red and start after 3 blacks in a row' technique for roulette is very seductive even as you know it's bollox.

    Or is it? Maybe not always. Consider this:

    You have £100 in the world and you simply MUST turn it into £120 because you owe Reggie Kray £120 and he's going to nail your scrotum to a coffee table if you don't pay in full. No point offering him £100. That'll make him even more angry. He'll think you're taking the piss. Disrespecting him. Disrespecting his mother.

    He's coming to your place at midnight for the money. It's 6 pm now. You have no mates or family and can't borrow.

    Solution: Hit the casino. Do the above technique assiduously (at £1 per spin) until you either lose the £100 or make the £20. You're more likely to make the £20 than lose the £100. If you make the £20 you're saved. You pay Reg and resolve to live better from now on. If you lose the £100, well you're no worse off. It's flat/win and flat/wins make sense.
    That's an excellent training question. It's in the category of those that mislead by containing superfluous information. We could just say if you are up Nick Leeson creek then make a Hail Mary trade, aka sh*t or bust.
    Yes it's a bit like that. I didn't offer it to mislead though. Just wanted to show a very specific circumstance where the 'martingale' system can make sense.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,769
    DougSeal said:

    Is OGH on holiday soon?


    He will be arrested. Then bailed. A trial will start in about 2 years time. So plenty of time for him to get re-elected....

    The arrest will actually increase his support.
    That's not a reason not to arrest him.
    I wonder how annoyed the Israelis are with him?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,393

    Carnyx said:

    Great header, @Cyclefree, it's baffling that this hasn't cut through more - surely everyone knows the local subpostmaster?

    Not sure they do, especially in urban areas. I visit the PO in Godalming maybe twice a year to send a registered letter or a large parcel. There's always a queue and they hurry you through briskly. I've never had the chance to chat to them or find out their names, let alone whether they were affected by the scandal. Isn't that sadly typical?
    Is that the PO's own estabblishment? Surely the scandal is over the subpostmasters who own their own shops? Or do I misunderstand?
    No, you're right. On reflection I don't think there even is a subpostmaster in our area. I think most small towns have one, but not urban areas?
    It varies. Lots of subPOs in suburbs and so on, not just villages. IN fact there are sub POs in inner cities. There's one near Greyfriats Bobby in Edinburgh - or so I assume it is a sub: just a counter in a convenience store.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,148
    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Not any family holidays I've taken. Or, I suspect, 90% of the electorate.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1680954500100640768
    .@GillianKeegan: “Most of our private schools are nothing like Eton or Harrow, they’re far smaller and they charge a lot less. Many cost the same as a family holiday abroad”

    I know averages can be deceptive but how many families who use private schools *don't* have a hol abroad?

    In answer to the second question, a very large number. It was one of the things you noticed in the mid-level private schools I worked in and with, that many of the children talked about their camping holidays in Devon.

    I don't take foreign holidays myself very often (I haven't left the country since Covid hit) so I don't know how much they cost these days. However, prep school fees often hover around the £5-6,000 mark which doesn't sound ridiculously out of line for a family holiday in a tourist hotspot in say Spain.

    Keegan is an idiot but she isn't making a stupid point here. Far too much discourse about private schools is skewed towards the top end, not considering the cheaper end.

    That has rather different problems of its own that need addressing but they never get talked about.
    Are you sure about your figure of £5k-£6k? From what I can see that is the typical average PER TERM. In which case £15k would get you a good holiday in Europe.
    £15k is now about average day school fees. Inflation in school fees has been running a lot higher than inflation in holidays for quite some time. Back in my day(!) three decades ago, a week in Majorca for a family was about the same as the year’s school fees.

    Add me to the list of PBers who had one foreign holiday in seven years while attending a private secondary school. It’s a decision made by many, many parents in that boat.
    Is there a list of PBers who never set foot outside the UK until they turned 20 and whose parents would never even have considered sending them to private school? (State grammar and a week camping in Wales for me)
    It's a bit four Yorkshiremen on here this morning.
    My parents starved to death to send me to private school.
    But it was worth it.
    My parents kept me in a comp. Didn't even try to send me to a grammar school.

    And they never took me abroad until I was 19.

    Did it bother me? Not much. Didn't particularly want to go abroad. I suffer from heat migraines very easily so the idea of hot summers was not appealing.

    Would I have done better academically at a private school? Almost certainly. There was a significant problem with disruption in my local school that I wouldn't have had elsewhere. And you do see some quite stupid people who went to private schools getting on well in exams and careers.

    But would have I enjoyed it? Probably not very much. I don't like commuting and my local comp was literally at the end of my road whereas the nearest private school was a ten mile bus ride.
    I think this is probably my main personal issue with private schools - the advancement of the mediocre. We see it most obviously in our current government, half of whom I wouldn’t trust to make a cup of tea.
    That I would agree with.

    Which is one reason why I've always been adamant the way to get rid of them is to cut class sizes in the state sector dramatically. That would first, eliminate the edge private schools have and second, really improve education outcomes (much though I hate that cliche) for everyone.
    The strange element in the debate about private and state education is the lack of interest in the actual issue.

    Which is the better educational outcomes achieved by private schools.

    At this point the debate generally devolves to Olympic swimming pools, thick poshos and my favourite - “Over education”.

    Has anyone actually done a study on the effect of reducing class size without changing anything else?

    Edit : The reason for the avoidance of the issue is obvious, to me.
    Not in this country.

    That would require you to reduce class sizes...
    Once worked at a comprehensive that bust an absolute gut to get down to 24 maximum. Basically all the discrecionary spend in the budget went on that. That was probably not enough to really make a difference (you don't really change much by going from 30 to 24 in a well run school... Suspect the threshold is when 24 becomes 18). It ended up as more a selling point than anything else, and some of the consequent austerities (nothing printed full size, ever) were maddening.

    Can't find the source, but I've seen it said that the key problem isn't so much staff as buildings. Cut the default class size from 30 to 20 and you need 50% more classrooms for the same number of children. And nobody has any intention of paying for that, especially in one go. Hence the use of TAs in primaries, to improve the adult:child ratio without changing the size of classes.
    What are the ranges of class size in private schools? 15 early on, with slack handfuls for some A level subjects?

    My eldest has ended up in a class of 2 for A level Spanish…
    In my experience, there comes a point where class sizes are too small - 2 for A-level Spanish, for example. That's because the benefits of being in a group large enough to engender healthy debate and discussion are lost. I reckon anything less than 6 is too small for the cut and thrust of teacher-pupil and pupil-pupil interactions and the sharing of different ideas to benefit learning.
    My education take that will make everyone hate me is that schools should just get out of the business of teaching A Levels, and do that in sixth form colleges instead. Lots of schools run A Level groups that are too small to be economic and probably aren't ideal from an educational point of view.

    Trouble is that teachers like their tiny sixth form class (I know I did) and parents are often up in arms at the very idea.
    Totally agree. State sixth-form colleges are the crème de la crème of our education system. Sadly, their numbers have reduced from just under 100 to around 50 as some have had to merge with FE colleges, and others have been academised into federations. Scandalous. Another example of clueless Tory education policies.
    We have sixth form colleges in our area (Surrey) and, whilst I agree that they are very good, my secondary school was very poor at advising me on what A Levels to pick. I was basically left to figure it out for myself. Sadly, by the time I realised what I should have picked, it was too late.
    That's a management problem, not a general institutional problem.
    A good sixth form college ought to sort that before it's too late, and facilitate a subject change.
    In my first Biology VI class back in the ‘50’s, the Headmaster suddenly appeared, saying to one of us “You’re not doing this F****; you can get a State Scholarship if you do Maths”.
    And led the lad out without a word to the teacher, who was Head of Biology!
    Mind you, the Head and the Biology master were known to hate each other!
    Gaming the system via subject choice is not unknown, for instance Dudley Moore's organ scholarship from working class Dagenham to Oxford, or Boris's sisters comments on the advantages of Latin and Greek for Oxford entry.
    Did Dudley 'game it'? I'd have thought getting awarded an Oxford organ scholarship was pretty darn difficult, and the man was hardly a shit musician.
    Nowadays the trick is supposed to be to switch from public school to local authority sixth form college to benefit from the potential for positive discrim
    I don't really understand the logic of this. A levels are the bit of your schooling that really matters, surely - it's what gets you into a good Uni. If you're willing to entrust your child to the state system for that, then why not the whole lot, save yourself a load of money (and, for some, guilt) and give your childten the enormous benefit of learning among a diverse cross section of their fellow citizens?
    As said above, you tutor on the side to deliver the grades, and rely on the Oxbridge college wanting to maintain its decent 'not from public school' percentage to deliver the offer
    Why not just encourage your child to work hard, trust their teachers and let them find their own level? Kids who are hot-housed and spoon fed to get into top Unis will typically underperform there. I never got any tuition and we've not got any for our children.
    Ah yes, the "hot-housed and spoon fed" argument.

    Jessica Ennis-Hill shouldn't have bothered with all that ghastly over training. Once round the track on a weekend does just fine.

    If you want state schools to catch up with private school results, effort and money will be required.

    Take a look at the educational rankings internationally. Then look at the what the state schools manage.
    Money is up to the government. If you think that teachers at state schools aren't putting in any effort then I'm afraid you are showing your ignorance. Their dedication in the face of terrible pay and conditions is incredible.
    Private schools aren't training their kids to become great athletes, they are more like a combination of performance enhancing drugs and letting some competitors start the race half way round the track. That's why state school kids tend to do better at uni. I saw it when I was at university, some private school kids were very bright, but a lot had obviously been coached over the line and really shouldn't have been there.
    It's not about individual effort by teachers. it's about numbers and resources.

    What private schools are doing is attempting to create as much educational attainment as possible, with more resources.

    If the same methodology was applied to the state school sector, then you would get similar results.

    With the caveat of streaming the angry ones who are determined to disrupt others educations out of the way of the bright.

    Without the private sector, educational attainment in this country would be held up for stark international comparison.
    The private sector creams off an advantaged intake and then spends far more per pupil. Of course this leads to better results. If you adjust for these factors to get a fair comparison their results are not better. They are, in fact, worse.
    That's like saying that loads of people are as fast as Jessica Ennis-Hill - once you take away the training.

    The actual results achieved by the state are worse than those of the private sector. This is the fault of the state system, not the fault of the private system.

    The "creaming off" claim, by the way, has been debunked. There are a plenty of pupils in the state system who should be getting their 3 A* etc.

    Bags of Moe Sbihi's out there, waiting for the talent scouts...

    But they aren't. This isn't because of private school mind control rays - it is because they are not being trained to their potential.

    The idea that the fix is somehow to get all the BrightPrivateSchoolToffMorons to go to state schools, to just lift the attainment numbers, is to abandon those who could actually benefit from the same level of education.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,975
    Ugh. BIB.

    When Birmingham stepped up in 2017 and agreed to host last year’s Commonwealth Games, a warning was communicated from the government to the federation’s London offices that it was a rescue operation ministers would be reluctant to repeat.

    The Commonwealth Games was in crisis. When the South African city of Durban was awarded the 2022 event in 2015, it was the only bidder after Edmonton in Canada had withdrawn citing financial concerns.

    Two years later, however, and Durban was stripped of the rights after failing to meet requirements, with South African officials echoing their Canadian counterparts by blaming spiralling costs.

    It was then that the Commonwealth Games Federation (CGF) turned in desperation to the British when Birmingham had in fact been scheduled to host the 2026 Games. Pressure, insiders say, came from the very top, with the Palace — The Queen was the patron of the Games with Prince Edward its vice-patron — stressing the importance of the Games to the Commonwealth.

    Ultimately, the British taxpayer footed the bill. The UK government committed more than £560 million to ensure the Games could go ahead, with the local council agreeing to another £190 million. Total expenditure was close to £1 billion
    .

    But after Victoria pulled out of hosting the 2026 Games, the chances of the British saving the event again, say those same insiders, will be remote. That is because of logistical challenges as well as the optics of committing yet more public money to sport when the country remains in the grip of a cost of living crisis.

    It leaves the CGF in serious danger of collapse, given how difficult it proved to find Victoria as a host in the first place.

    The federation was due to announce the location of the 2026 Games in 2019. But Cardiff, Kuala Lumpur, Edmonton, Calgary and Adelaide all withdrew from the bidding process and in the end it was not until February last year, as The Times revealed at the time, that the Australian state of Victoria agreed to take it on.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/commonwealth-games-the-event-that-no-one-wants-to-host-0hd9gwlpl
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,393

    Carnyx said:

    Great header, @Cyclefree, it's baffling that this hasn't cut through more - surely everyone knows the local subpostmaster?

    Not sure they do, especially in urban areas. I visit the PO in Godalming maybe twice a year to send a registered letter or a large parcel. There's always a queue and they hurry you through briskly. I've never had the chance to chat to them or find out their names, let alone whether they were affected by the scandal. Isn't that sadly typical?
    Is that the PO's own estabblishment? Surely the scandal is over the subpostmasters who own their own shops? Or do I misunderstand?
    No, you're right. On reflection I don't think there even is a subpostmaster in our area. I think most small towns have one, but not urban areas? Obviously that doesn't mean we shouldn't be horrified by what Cyclefree describes, but it's not personal for most people, and that probably dampens the reaction.
    PS I suspect it does not help that the PO system has been so fragmented and monkeyed about by the PO - POs, both main and sub, closed apparently at random and put in this and that shop also apparently at random, over the last 20-30 years.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,900
    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Not any family holidays I've taken. Or, I suspect, 90% of the electorate.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1680954500100640768
    .@GillianKeegan: “Most of our private schools are nothing like Eton or Harrow, they’re far smaller and they charge a lot less. Many cost the same as a family holiday abroad”

    I know averages can be deceptive but how many families who use private schools *don't* have a hol abroad?

    In answer to the second question, a very large number. It was one of the things you noticed in the mid-level private schools I worked in and with, that many of the children talked about their camping holidays in Devon.

    I don't take foreign holidays myself very often (I haven't left the country since Covid hit) so I don't know how much they cost these days. However, prep school fees often hover around the £5-6,000 mark which doesn't sound ridiculously out of line for a family holiday in a tourist hotspot in say Spain.

    Keegan is an idiot but she isn't making a stupid point here. Far too much discourse about private schools is skewed towards the top end, not considering the cheaper end.

    That has rather different problems of its own that need addressing but they never get talked about.
    Are you sure about your figure of £5k-£6k? From what I can see that is the typical average PER TERM. In which case £15k would get you a good holiday in Europe.
    £15k is now about average day school fees. Inflation in school fees has been running a lot higher than inflation in holidays for quite some time. Back in my day(!) three decades ago, a week in Majorca for a family was about the same as the year’s school fees.

    Add me to the list of PBers who had one foreign holiday in seven years while attending a private secondary school. It’s a decision made by many, many parents in that boat.
    Is there a list of PBers who never set foot outside the UK until they turned 20 and whose parents would never even have considered sending them to private school? (State grammar and a week camping in Wales for me)
    It's a bit four Yorkshiremen on here this morning.
    My parents starved to death to send me to private school.
    But it was worth it.
    My parents kept me in a comp. Didn't even try to send me to a grammar school.

    And they never took me abroad until I was 19.

    Did it bother me? Not much. Didn't particularly want to go abroad. I suffer from heat migraines very easily so the idea of hot summers was not appealing.

    Would I have done better academically at a private school? Almost certainly. There was a significant problem with disruption in my local school that I wouldn't have had elsewhere. And you do see some quite stupid people who went to private schools getting on well in exams and careers.

    But would have I enjoyed it? Probably not very much. I don't like commuting and my local comp was literally at the end of my road whereas the nearest private school was a ten mile bus ride.
    I think this is probably my main personal issue with private schools - the advancement of the mediocre. We see it most obviously in our current government, half of whom I wouldn’t trust to make a cup of tea.
    That I would agree with.

    Which is one reason why I've always been adamant the way to get rid of them is to cut class sizes in the state sector dramatically. That would first, eliminate the edge private schools have and second, really improve education outcomes (much though I hate that cliche) for everyone.
    The strange element in the debate about private and state education is the lack of interest in the actual issue.

    Which is the better educational outcomes achieved by private schools.

    At this point the debate generally devolves to Olympic swimming pools, thick poshos and my favourite - “Over education”.

    Has anyone actually done a study on the effect of reducing class size without changing anything else?

    Edit : The reason for the avoidance of the issue is obvious, to me.
    Not in this country.

    That would require you to reduce class sizes...
    Once worked at a comprehensive that bust an absolute gut to get down to 24 maximum. Basically all the discrecionary spend in the budget went on that. That was probably not enough to really make a difference (you don't really change much by going from 30 to 24 in a well run school... Suspect the threshold is when 24 becomes 18). It ended up as more a selling point than anything else, and some of the consequent austerities (nothing printed full size, ever) were maddening.

    Can't find the source, but I've seen it said that the key problem isn't so much staff as buildings. Cut the default class size from 30 to 20 and you need 50% more classrooms for the same number of children. And nobody has any intention of paying for that, especially in one go. Hence the use of TAs in primaries, to improve the adult:child ratio without changing the size of classes.
    What are the ranges of class size in private schools? 15 early on, with slack handfuls for some A level subjects?

    My eldest has ended up in a class of 2 for A level Spanish…
    In my experience, there comes a point where class sizes are too small - 2 for A-level Spanish, for example. That's because the benefits of being in a group large enough to engender healthy debate and discussion are lost. I reckon anything less than 6 is too small for the cut and thrust of teacher-pupil and pupil-pupil interactions and the sharing of different ideas to benefit learning.
    My education take that will make everyone hate me is that schools should just get out of the business of teaching A Levels, and do that in sixth form colleges instead. Lots of schools run A Level groups that are too small to be economic and probably aren't ideal from an educational point of view.

    Trouble is that teachers like their tiny sixth form class (I know I did) and parents are often up in arms at the very idea.
    Totally agree. State sixth-form colleges are the crème de la crème of our education system. Sadly, their numbers have reduced from just under 100 to around 50 as some have had to merge with FE colleges, and others have been academised into federations. Scandalous. Another example of clueless Tory education policies.
    We have sixth form colleges in our area (Surrey) and, whilst I agree that they are very good, my secondary school was very poor at advising me on what A Levels to pick. I was basically left to figure it out for myself. Sadly, by the time I realised what I should have picked, it was too late.
    That's a management problem, not a general institutional problem.
    A good sixth form college ought to sort that before it's too late, and facilitate a subject change.
    In my first Biology VI class back in the ‘50’s, the Headmaster suddenly appeared, saying to one of us “You’re not doing this F****; you can get a State Scholarship if you do Maths”.
    And led the lad out without a word to the teacher, who was Head of Biology!
    Mind you, the Head and the Biology master were known to hate each other!
    Gaming the system via subject choice is not unknown, for instance Dudley Moore's organ scholarship from working class Dagenham to Oxford, or Boris's sisters comments on the advantages of Latin and Greek for Oxford entry.
    Did Dudley 'game it'? I'd have thought getting awarded an Oxford organ scholarship was pretty darn difficult, and the man was hardly a shit musician.
    Nowadays the trick is supposed to be to switch from public school to local authority sixth form college to benefit from the potential for positive discrim
    I don't really understand the logic of this. A levels are the bit of your schooling that really matters, surely - it's what gets you into a good Uni. If you're willing to entrust your child to the state system for that, then why not the whole lot, save yourself a load of money (and, for some, guilt) and give your childten the enormous benefit of learning among a diverse cross section of their fellow citizens?
    As said above, you tutor on the side to deliver the grades, and rely on the Oxbridge college wanting to maintain its decent 'not from public school' percentage to deliver the offer
    Why not just encourage your child to work hard, trust their teachers and let them find their own level? Kids who are hot-housed and spoon fed to get into top Unis will typically underperform there. I never got any tuition and we've not got any for our children.
    Ah yes, the "hot-housed and spoon fed" argument.

    Jessica Ennis-Hill shouldn't have bothered with all that ghastly over training. Once round the track on a weekend does just fine.

    If you want state schools to catch up with private school results, effort and money will be required.

    Take a look at the educational rankings internationally. Then look at the what the state schools manage.
    Money is up to the government. If you think that teachers at state schools aren't putting in any effort then I'm afraid you are showing your ignorance. Their dedication in the face of terrible pay and conditions is incredible.
    Private schools aren't training their kids to become great athletes, they are more like a combination of performance enhancing drugs and letting some competitors start the race half way round the track. That's why state school kids tend to do better at uni. I saw it when I was at university, some private school kids were very bright, but a lot had obviously been coached over the line and really shouldn't have been there.
    It's not about individual effort by teachers. it's about numbers and resources.

    What private schools are doing is attempting to create as much educational attainment as possible, with more resources.

    If the same methodology was applied to the state school sector, then you would get similar results.

    With the caveat of streaming the angry ones who are determined to disrupt others educations out of the way of the bright.

    Without the private sector, educational attainment in this country would be held up for stark international comparison.
    The private sector creams off an advantaged intake and then spends far more per pupil. Of course this leads to better results. If you adjust for these factors to get a fair comparison their results are not better. They are, in fact, worse.
    And if you think that schools should have more resources, vote for that to happen for every child, don't simply secure it for your own child and vote for a real terms per pupil spending cut for everyone else.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,769

    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Not any family holidays I've taken. Or, I suspect, 90% of the electorate.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1680954500100640768
    .@GillianKeegan: “Most of our private schools are nothing like Eton or Harrow, they’re far smaller and they charge a lot less. Many cost the same as a family holiday abroad”

    I know averages can be deceptive but how many families who use private schools *don't* have a hol abroad?

    In answer to the second question, a very large number. It was one of the things you noticed in the mid-level private schools I worked in and with, that many of the children talked about their camping holidays in Devon.

    I don't take foreign holidays myself very often (I haven't left the country since Covid hit) so I don't know how much they cost these days. However, prep school fees often hover around the £5-6,000 mark which doesn't sound ridiculously out of line for a family holiday in a tourist hotspot in say Spain.

    Keegan is an idiot but she isn't making a stupid point here. Far too much discourse about private schools is skewed towards the top end, not considering the cheaper end.

    That has rather different problems of its own that need addressing but they never get talked about.
    Are you sure about your figure of £5k-£6k? From what I can see that is the typical average PER TERM. In which case £15k would get you a good holiday in Europe.
    £15k is now about average day school fees. Inflation in school fees has been running a lot higher than inflation in holidays for quite some time. Back in my day(!) three decades ago, a week in Majorca for a family was about the same as the year’s school fees.

    Add me to the list of PBers who had one foreign holiday in seven years while attending a private secondary school. It’s a decision made by many, many parents in that boat.
    Is there a list of PBers who never set foot outside the UK until they turned 20 and whose parents would never even have considered sending them to private school? (State grammar and a week camping in Wales for me)
    It's a bit four Yorkshiremen on here this morning.
    My parents starved to death to send me to private school.
    But it was worth it.
    My parents kept me in a comp. Didn't even try to send me to a grammar school.

    And they never took me abroad until I was 19.

    Did it bother me? Not much. Didn't particularly want to go abroad. I suffer from heat migraines very easily so the idea of hot summers was not appealing.

    Would I have done better academically at a private school? Almost certainly. There was a significant problem with disruption in my local school that I wouldn't have had elsewhere. And you do see some quite stupid people who went to private schools getting on well in exams and careers.

    But would have I enjoyed it? Probably not very much. I don't like commuting and my local comp was literally at the end of my road whereas the nearest private school was a ten mile bus ride.
    I think this is probably my main personal issue with private schools - the advancement of the mediocre. We see it most obviously in our current government, half of whom I wouldn’t trust to make a cup of tea.
    That I would agree with.

    Which is one reason why I've always been adamant the way to get rid of them is to cut class sizes in the state sector dramatically. That would first, eliminate the edge private schools have and second, really improve education outcomes (much though I hate that cliche) for everyone.
    The strange element in the debate about private and state education is the lack of interest in the actual issue.

    Which is the better educational outcomes achieved by private schools.

    At this point the debate generally devolves to Olympic swimming pools, thick poshos and my favourite - “Over education”.

    Has anyone actually done a study on the effect of reducing class size without changing anything else?

    Edit : The reason for the avoidance of the issue is obvious, to me.
    Not in this country.

    That would require you to reduce class sizes...
    Once worked at a comprehensive that bust an absolute gut to get down to 24 maximum. Basically all the discrecionary spend in the budget went on that. That was probably not enough to really make a difference (you don't really change much by going from 30 to 24 in a well run school... Suspect the threshold is when 24 becomes 18). It ended up as more a selling point than anything else, and some of the consequent austerities (nothing printed full size, ever) were maddening.

    Can't find the source, but I've seen it said that the key problem isn't so much staff as buildings. Cut the default class size from 30 to 20 and you need 50% more classrooms for the same number of children. And nobody has any intention of paying for that, especially in one go. Hence the use of TAs in primaries, to improve the adult:child ratio without changing the size of classes.
    What are the ranges of class size in private schools? 15 early on, with slack handfuls for some A level subjects?

    My eldest has ended up in a class of 2 for A level Spanish…
    In my experience, there comes a point where class sizes are too small - 2 for A-level Spanish, for example. That's because the benefits of being in a group large enough to engender healthy debate and discussion are lost. I reckon anything less than 6 is too small for the cut and thrust of teacher-pupil and pupil-pupil interactions and the sharing of different ideas to benefit learning.
    My education take that will make everyone hate me is that schools should just get out of the business of teaching A Levels, and do that in sixth form colleges instead. Lots of schools run A Level groups that are too small to be economic and probably aren't ideal from an educational point of view.

    Trouble is that teachers like their tiny sixth form class (I know I did) and parents are often up in arms at the very idea.
    Totally agree. State sixth-form colleges are the crème de la crème of our education system. Sadly, their numbers have reduced from just under 100 to around 50 as some have had to merge with FE colleges, and others have been academised into federations. Scandalous. Another example of clueless Tory education policies.
    We have sixth form colleges in our area (Surrey) and, whilst I agree that they are very good, my secondary school was very poor at advising me on what A Levels to pick. I was basically left to figure it out for myself. Sadly, by the time I realised what I should have picked, it was too late.
    That's a management problem, not a general institutional problem.
    A good sixth form college ought to sort that before it's too late, and facilitate a subject change.
    In my first Biology VI class back in the ‘50’s, the Headmaster suddenly appeared, saying to one of us “You’re not doing this F****; you can get a State Scholarship if you do Maths”.
    And led the lad out without a word to the teacher, who was Head of Biology!
    Mind you, the Head and the Biology master were known to hate each other!
    Gaming the system via subject choice is not unknown, for instance Dudley Moore's organ scholarship from working class Dagenham to Oxford, or Boris's sisters comments on the advantages of Latin and Greek for Oxford entry.
    Did Dudley 'game it'? I'd have thought getting awarded an Oxford organ scholarship was pretty darn difficult, and the man was hardly a shit musician.
    Nowadays the trick is supposed to be to switch from public school to local authority sixth form college to benefit from the potential for positive discrim
    I don't really understand the logic of this. A levels are the bit of your schooling that really matters, surely - it's what gets you into a good Uni. If you're willing to entrust your child to the state system for that, then why not the whole lot, save yourself a load of money (and, for some, guilt) and give your childten the enormous benefit of learning among a diverse cross section of their fellow citizens?
    As said above, you tutor on the side to deliver the grades, and rely on the Oxbridge college wanting to maintain its decent 'not from public school' percentage to deliver the offer
    Why not just encourage your child to work hard, trust their teachers and let them find their own level? Kids who are hot-housed and spoon fed to get into top Unis will typically underperform there. I never got any tuition and we've not got any for our children.
    Ah yes, the "hot-housed and spoon fed" argument.

    Jessica Ennis-Hill shouldn't have bothered with all that ghastly over training. Once round the track on a weekend does just fine.

    If you want state schools to catch up with private school results, effort and money will be required.

    Take a look at the educational rankings internationally. Then look at the what the state schools manage.
    Money is up to the government. If you think that teachers at state schools aren't putting in any effort then I'm afraid you are showing your ignorance. Their dedication in the face of terrible pay and conditions is incredible.
    Private schools aren't training their kids to become great athletes, they are more like a combination of performance enhancing drugs and letting some competitors start the race half way round the track. That's why state school kids tend to do better at uni. I saw it when I was at university, some private school kids were very bright, but a lot had obviously been coached over the line and really shouldn't have been there.
    It's not about individual effort by teachers. it's about numbers and resources.

    What private schools are doing is attempting to create as much educational attainment as possible, with more resources.

    If the same methodology was applied to the state school sector, then you would get similar results.

    With the caveat of streaming the angry ones who are determined to disrupt others educations out of the way of the bright.

    Without the private sector, educational attainment in this country would be held up for stark international comparison.
    The private sector creams off an advantaged intake and then spends far more per pupil. Of course this leads to better results. If you adjust for these factors to get a fair comparison their results are not better. They are, in fact, worse.
    And if you think that schools should have more resources, vote for that to happen for every child, don't simply secure it for your own child and vote for a real terms per pupil spending cut for everyone else.
    But who is offering it?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606

    Leon said:

    Greetings From Wawel Castle

    That reminds me that strawberries with pasta is one of Poland's national dishes. If you see 'makaron z truskawkami' on a menu, you can get something like this:

    Hmmmmmmm….
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606

    Ugh. BIB.

    When Birmingham stepped up in 2017 and agreed to host last year’s Commonwealth Games, a warning was communicated from the government to the federation’s London offices that it was a rescue operation ministers would be reluctant to repeat.

    The Commonwealth Games was in crisis. When the South African city of Durban was awarded the 2022 event in 2015, it was the only bidder after Edmonton in Canada had withdrawn citing financial concerns.

    Two years later, however, and Durban was stripped of the rights after failing to meet requirements, with South African officials echoing their Canadian counterparts by blaming spiralling costs.

    It was then that the Commonwealth Games Federation (CGF) turned in desperation to the British when Birmingham had in fact been scheduled to host the 2026 Games. Pressure, insiders say, came from the very top, with the Palace — The Queen was the patron of the Games with Prince Edward its vice-patron — stressing the importance of the Games to the Commonwealth.

    Ultimately, the British taxpayer footed the bill. The UK government committed more than £560 million to ensure the Games could go ahead, with the local council agreeing to another £190 million. Total expenditure was close to £1 billion
    .

    But after Victoria pulled out of hosting the 2026 Games, the chances of the British saving the event again, say those same insiders, will be remote. That is because of logistical challenges as well as the optics of committing yet more public money to sport when the country remains in the grip of a cost of living crisis.

    It leaves the CGF in serious danger of collapse, given how difficult it proved to find Victoria as a host in the first place.

    The federation was due to announce the location of the 2026 Games in 2019. But Cardiff, Kuala Lumpur, Edmonton, Calgary and Adelaide all withdrew from the bidding process and in the end it was not until February last year, as The Times revealed at the time, that the Australian state of Victoria agreed to take it on.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/commonwealth-games-the-event-that-no-one-wants-to-host-0hd9gwlpl

    Why don’t they just seriously reduce it in size so that it’s just the stuff that people might watch. Athletics etc

    So it will cost £200m not £2bn
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,900
    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Not any family holidays I've taken. Or, I suspect, 90% of the electorate.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1680954500100640768
    .@GillianKeegan: “Most of our private schools are nothing like Eton or Harrow, they’re far smaller and they charge a lot less. Many cost the same as a family holiday abroad”

    I know averages can be deceptive but how many families who use private schools *don't* have a hol abroad?

    In answer to the second question, a very large number. It was one of the things you noticed in the mid-level private schools I worked in and with, that many of the children talked about their camping holidays in Devon.

    I don't take foreign holidays myself very often (I haven't left the country since Covid hit) so I don't know how much they cost these days. However, prep school fees often hover around the £5-6,000 mark which doesn't sound ridiculously out of line for a family holiday in a tourist hotspot in say Spain.

    Keegan is an idiot but she isn't making a stupid point here. Far too much discourse about private schools is skewed towards the top end, not considering the cheaper end.

    That has rather different problems of its own that need addressing but they never get talked about.
    Are you sure about your figure of £5k-£6k? From what I can see that is the typical average PER TERM. In which case £15k would get you a good holiday in Europe.
    £15k is now about average day school fees. Inflation in school fees has been running a lot higher than inflation in holidays for quite some time. Back in my day(!) three decades ago, a week in Majorca for a family was about the same as the year’s school fees.

    Add me to the list of PBers who had one foreign holiday in seven years while attending a private secondary school. It’s a decision made by many, many parents in that boat.
    Is there a list of PBers who never set foot outside the UK until they turned 20 and whose parents would never even have considered sending them to private school? (State grammar and a week camping in Wales for me)
    It's a bit four Yorkshiremen on here this morning.
    My parents starved to death to send me to private school.
    But it was worth it.
    My parents kept me in a comp. Didn't even try to send me to a grammar school.

    And they never took me abroad until I was 19.

    Did it bother me? Not much. Didn't particularly want to go abroad. I suffer from heat migraines very easily so the idea of hot summers was not appealing.

    Would I have done better academically at a private school? Almost certainly. There was a significant problem with disruption in my local school that I wouldn't have had elsewhere. And you do see some quite stupid people who went to private schools getting on well in exams and careers.

    But would have I enjoyed it? Probably not very much. I don't like commuting and my local comp was literally at the end of my road whereas the nearest private school was a ten mile bus ride.
    I think this is probably my main personal issue with private schools - the advancement of the mediocre. We see it most obviously in our current government, half of whom I wouldn’t trust to make a cup of tea.
    That I would agree with.

    Which is one reason why I've always been adamant the way to get rid of them is to cut class sizes in the state sector dramatically. That would first, eliminate the edge private schools have and second, really improve education outcomes (much though I hate that cliche) for everyone.
    The strange element in the debate about private and state education is the lack of interest in the actual issue.

    Which is the better educational outcomes achieved by private schools.

    At this point the debate generally devolves to Olympic swimming pools, thick poshos and my favourite - “Over education”.

    Has anyone actually done a study on the effect of reducing class size without changing anything else?

    Edit : The reason for the avoidance of the issue is obvious, to me.
    Not in this country.

    That would require you to reduce class sizes...
    Once worked at a comprehensive that bust an absolute gut to get down to 24 maximum. Basically all the discrecionary spend in the budget went on that. That was probably not enough to really make a difference (you don't really change much by going from 30 to 24 in a well run school... Suspect the threshold is when 24 becomes 18). It ended up as more a selling point than anything else, and some of the consequent austerities (nothing printed full size, ever) were maddening.

    Can't find the source, but I've seen it said that the key problem isn't so much staff as buildings. Cut the default class size from 30 to 20 and you need 50% more classrooms for the same number of children. And nobody has any intention of paying for that, especially in one go. Hence the use of TAs in primaries, to improve the adult:child ratio without changing the size of classes.
    What are the ranges of class size in private schools? 15 early on, with slack handfuls for some A level subjects?

    My eldest has ended up in a class of 2 for A level Spanish…
    In my experience, there comes a point where class sizes are too small - 2 for A-level Spanish, for example. That's because the benefits of being in a group large enough to engender healthy debate and discussion are lost. I reckon anything less than 6 is too small for the cut and thrust of teacher-pupil and pupil-pupil interactions and the sharing of different ideas to benefit learning.
    My education take that will make everyone hate me is that schools should just get out of the business of teaching A Levels, and do that in sixth form colleges instead. Lots of schools run A Level groups that are too small to be economic and probably aren't ideal from an educational point of view.

    Trouble is that teachers like their tiny sixth form class (I know I did) and parents are often up in arms at the very idea.
    Totally agree. State sixth-form colleges are the crème de la crème of our education system. Sadly, their numbers have reduced from just under 100 to around 50 as some have had to merge with FE colleges, and others have been academised into federations. Scandalous. Another example of clueless Tory education policies.
    We have sixth form colleges in our area (Surrey) and, whilst I agree that they are very good, my secondary school was very poor at advising me on what A Levels to pick. I was basically left to figure it out for myself. Sadly, by the time I realised what I should have picked, it was too late.
    That's a management problem, not a general institutional problem.
    A good sixth form college ought to sort that before it's too late, and facilitate a subject change.
    In my first Biology VI class back in the ‘50’s, the Headmaster suddenly appeared, saying to one of us “You’re not doing this F****; you can get a State Scholarship if you do Maths”.
    And led the lad out without a word to the teacher, who was Head of Biology!
    Mind you, the Head and the Biology master were known to hate each other!
    Gaming the system via subject choice is not unknown, for instance Dudley Moore's organ scholarship from working class Dagenham to Oxford, or Boris's sisters comments on the advantages of Latin and Greek for Oxford entry.
    Did Dudley 'game it'? I'd have thought getting awarded an Oxford organ scholarship was pretty darn difficult, and the man was hardly a shit musician.
    Nowadays the trick is supposed to be to switch from public school to local authority sixth form college to benefit from the potential for positive discrim
    I don't really understand the logic of this. A levels are the bit of your schooling that really matters, surely - it's what gets you into a good Uni. If you're willing to entrust your child to the state system for that, then why not the whole lot, save yourself a load of money (and, for some, guilt) and give your childten the enormous benefit of learning among a diverse cross section of their fellow citizens?
    As said above, you tutor on the side to deliver the grades, and rely on the Oxbridge college wanting to maintain its decent 'not from public school' percentage to deliver the offer
    Why not just encourage your child to work hard, trust their teachers and let them find their own level? Kids who are hot-housed and spoon fed to get into top Unis will typically underperform there. I never got any tuition and we've not got any for our children.
    Ah yes, the "hot-housed and spoon fed" argument.

    Jessica Ennis-Hill shouldn't have bothered with all that ghastly over training. Once round the track on a weekend does just fine.

    If you want state schools to catch up with private school results, effort and money will be required.

    Take a look at the educational rankings internationally. Then look at the what the state schools manage.
    Money is up to the government. If you think that teachers at state schools aren't putting in any effort then I'm afraid you are showing your ignorance. Their dedication in the face of terrible pay and conditions is incredible.
    Private schools aren't training their kids to become great athletes, they are more like a combination of performance enhancing drugs and letting some competitors start the race half way round the track. That's why state school kids tend to do better at uni. I saw it when I was at university, some private school kids were very bright, but a lot had obviously been coached over the line and really shouldn't have been there.
    It's not about individual effort by teachers. it's about numbers and resources.

    What private schools are doing is attempting to create as much educational attainment as possible, with more resources.

    If the same methodology was applied to the state school sector, then you would get similar results.

    With the caveat of streaming the angry ones who are determined to disrupt others educations out of the way of the bright.

    Without the private sector, educational attainment in this country would be held up for stark international comparison.
    The private sector creams off an advantaged intake and then spends far more per pupil. Of course this leads to better results. If you adjust for these factors to get a fair comparison their results are not better. They are, in fact, worse.
    And if you think that schools should have more resources, vote for that to happen for every child, don't simply secure it for your own child and vote for a real terms per pupil spending cut for everyone else.
    But who is offering it?
    Last time Labour was in power real spending per pupil went up. Under the Tories it has gone down. Draw your own conclusions.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Good thread.

    I asked repeatedly on here what people saw in Bad Enoch, who appears to be yet another one-dimensional waster, in a party full of them.

    I got no good answer.

    Chalk another one off.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,039
    Some time around 1976, I acquired a little book by Martin Mayer, "Today and Tomorrow in America".

    And I have never forgotten this summary observation from that book: "The great advantage of decision-making in an economic market is that markets automatically, routinely force the recognition of error. Presumably computers will someday make it possible to recognize and correct mistakes; but this presumption is likely to remain just that, because bureaucracies are fundamentally motivated by the fear of the discovery or error."

    Mayer goes on to qualify that summary, mentioning well-known market faults, such as short time horizons. Notably, he says that markets are worse at allocating resources in financial markets, than in physical markets.

    For some time, I have thought that Cyclefree is providing a valuable service to all of us by illustrating Mayer's conclusion about bureaucracies.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,769
    edited July 2023

    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Not any family holidays I've taken. Or, I suspect, 90% of the electorate.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1680954500100640768
    .@GillianKeegan: “Most of our private schools are nothing like Eton or Harrow, they’re far smaller and they charge a lot less. Many cost the same as a family holiday abroad”

    I know averages can be deceptive but how many families who use private schools *don't* have a hol abroad?

    In answer to the second question, a very large number. It was one of the things you noticed in the mid-level private schools I worked in and with, that many of the children talked about their camping holidays in Devon.

    I don't take foreign holidays myself very often (I haven't left the country since Covid hit) so I don't know how much they cost these days. However, prep school fees often hover around the £5-6,000 mark which doesn't sound ridiculously out of line for a family holiday in a tourist hotspot in say Spain.

    Keegan is an idiot but she isn't making a stupid point here. Far too much discourse about private schools is skewed towards the top end, not considering the cheaper end.

    That has rather different problems of its own that need addressing but they never get talked about.
    Are you sure about your figure of £5k-£6k? From what I can see that is the typical average PER TERM. In which case £15k would get you a good holiday in Europe.
    £15k is now about average day school fees. Inflation in school fees has been running a lot higher than inflation in holidays for quite some time. Back in my day(!) three decades ago, a week in Majorca for a family was about the same as the year’s school fees.

    Add me to the list of PBers who had one foreign holiday in seven years while attending a private secondary school. It’s a decision made by many, many parents in that boat.
    Is there a list of PBers who never set foot outside the UK until they turned 20 and whose parents would never even have considered sending them to private school? (State grammar and a week camping in Wales for me)
    It's a bit four Yorkshiremen on here this morning.
    My parents starved to death to send me to private school.
    But it was worth it.
    My parents kept me in a comp. Didn't even try to send me to a grammar school.

    And they never took me abroad until I was 19.

    Did it bother me? Not much. Didn't particularly want to go abroad. I suffer from heat migraines very easily so the idea of hot summers was not appealing.

    Would I have done better academically at a private school? Almost certainly. There was a significant problem with disruption in my local school that I wouldn't have had elsewhere. And you do see some quite stupid people who went to private schools getting on well in exams and careers.

    But would have I enjoyed it? Probably not very much. I don't like commuting and my local comp was literally at the end of my road whereas the nearest private school was a ten mile bus ride.
    I think this is probably my main personal issue with private schools - the advancement of the mediocre. We see it most obviously in our current government, half of whom I wouldn’t trust to make a cup of tea.
    That I would agree with.

    Which is one reason why I've always been adamant the way to get rid of them is to cut class sizes in the state sector dramatically. That would first, eliminate the edge private schools have and second, really improve education outcomes (much though I hate that cliche) for everyone.
    The strange element in the debate about private and state education is the lack of interest in the actual issue.

    Which is the better educational outcomes achieved by private schools.

    At this point the debate generally devolves to Olympic swimming pools, thick poshos and my favourite - “Over education”.

    Has anyone actually done a study on the effect of reducing class size without changing anything else?

    Edit : The reason for the avoidance of the issue is obvious, to me.
    Not in this country.

    That would require you to reduce class sizes...
    Once worked at a comprehensive that bust an absolute gut to get down to 24 maximum. Basically all the discrecionary spend in the budget went on that. That was probably not enough to really make a difference (you don't really change much by going from 30 to 24 in a well run school... Suspect the threshold is when 24 becomes 18). It ended up as more a selling point than anything else, and some of the consequent austerities (nothing printed full size, ever) were maddening.

    Can't find the source, but I've seen it said that the key problem isn't so much staff as buildings. Cut the default class size from 30 to 20 and you need 50% more classrooms for the same number of children. And nobody has any intention of paying for that, especially in one go. Hence the use of TAs in primaries, to improve the adult:child ratio without changing the size of classes.
    What are the ranges of class size in private schools? 15 early on, with slack handfuls for some A level subjects?

    My eldest has ended up in a class of 2 for A level Spanish…
    In my experience, there comes a point where class sizes are too small - 2 for A-level Spanish, for example. That's because the benefits of being in a group large enough to engender healthy debate and discussion are lost. I reckon anything less than 6 is too small for the cut and thrust of teacher-pupil and pupil-pupil interactions and the sharing of different ideas to benefit learning.
    My education take that will make everyone hate me is that schools should just get out of the business of teaching A Levels, and do that in sixth form colleges instead. Lots of schools run A Level groups that are too small to be economic and probably aren't ideal from an educational point of view.

    Trouble is that teachers like their tiny sixth form class (I know I did) and parents are often up in arms at the very idea.
    Totally agree. State sixth-form colleges are the crème de la crème of our education system. Sadly, their numbers have reduced from just under 100 to around 50 as some have had to merge with FE colleges, and others have been academised into federations. Scandalous. Another example of clueless Tory education policies.
    We have sixth form colleges in our area (Surrey) and, whilst I agree that they are very good, my secondary school was very poor at advising me on what A Levels to pick. I was basically left to figure it out for myself. Sadly, by the time I realised what I should have picked, it was too late.
    That's a management problem, not a general institutional problem.
    A good sixth form college ought to sort that before it's too late, and facilitate a subject change.
    In my first Biology VI class back in the ‘50’s, the Headmaster suddenly appeared, saying to one of us “You’re not doing this F****; you can get a State Scholarship if you do Maths”.
    And led the lad out without a word to the teacher, who was Head of Biology!
    Mind you, the Head and the Biology master were known to hate each other!
    Gaming the system via subject choice is not unknown, for instance Dudley Moore's organ scholarship from working class Dagenham to Oxford, or Boris's sisters comments on the advantages of Latin and Greek for Oxford entry.
    Did Dudley 'game it'? I'd have thought getting awarded an Oxford organ scholarship was pretty darn difficult, and the man was hardly a shit musician.
    Nowadays the trick is supposed to be to switch from public school to local authority sixth form college to benefit from the potential for positive discrim
    I don't really understand the logic of this. A levels are the bit of your schooling that really matters, surely - it's what gets you into a good Uni. If you're willing to entrust your child to the state system for that, then why not the whole lot, save yourself a load of money (and, for some, guilt) and give your childten the enormous benefit of learning among a diverse cross section of their fellow citizens?
    As said above, you tutor on the side to deliver the grades, and rely on the Oxbridge college wanting to maintain its decent 'not from public school' percentage to deliver the offer
    Why not just encourage your child to work hard, trust their teachers and let them find their own level? Kids who are hot-housed and spoon fed to get into top Unis will typically underperform there. I never got any tuition and we've not got any for our children.
    Ah yes, the "hot-housed and spoon fed" argument.

    Jessica Ennis-Hill shouldn't have bothered with all that ghastly over training. Once round the track on a weekend does just fine.

    If you want state schools to catch up with private school results, effort and money will be required.

    Take a look at the educational rankings internationally. Then look at the what the state schools manage.
    Money is up to the government. If you think that teachers at state schools aren't putting in any effort then I'm afraid you are showing your ignorance. Their dedication in the face of terrible pay and conditions is incredible.
    Private schools aren't training their kids to become great athletes, they are more like a combination of performance enhancing drugs and letting some competitors start the race half way round the track. That's why state school kids tend to do better at uni. I saw it when I was at university, some private school kids were very bright, but a lot had obviously been coached over the line and really shouldn't have been there.
    It's not about individual effort by teachers. it's about numbers and resources.

    What private schools are doing is attempting to create as much educational attainment as possible, with more resources.

    If the same methodology was applied to the state school sector, then you would get similar results.

    With the caveat of streaming the angry ones who are determined to disrupt others educations out of the way of the bright.

    Without the private sector, educational attainment in this country would be held up for stark international comparison.
    The private sector creams off an advantaged intake and then spends far more per pupil. Of course this leads to better results. If you adjust for these factors to get a fair comparison their results are not better. They are, in fact, worse.
    And if you think that schools should have more resources, vote for that to happen for every child, don't simply secure it for your own child and vote for a real terms per pupil spending cut for everyone else.
    But who is offering it?
    Last time Labour was in power real spending per pupil went up. Under the Tories it has gone down. Draw your own conclusions.
    My point is that although Labour did some steps in that direction, ultimately they still failed to make spending per pupil rise to the levels where the state sector would seriously rival private schools.

    And money is now much tighter.

    It would take a very bold vision to make the reforms needed to our system. I do not believe Starmer has it. Certainly Phillipson does not.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,148
    Leon said:

    Ugh. BIB.

    When Birmingham stepped up in 2017 and agreed to host last year’s Commonwealth Games, a warning was communicated from the government to the federation’s London offices that it was a rescue operation ministers would be reluctant to repeat.

    The Commonwealth Games was in crisis. When the South African city of Durban was awarded the 2022 event in 2015, it was the only bidder after Edmonton in Canada had withdrawn citing financial concerns.

    Two years later, however, and Durban was stripped of the rights after failing to meet requirements, with South African officials echoing their Canadian counterparts by blaming spiralling costs.

    It was then that the Commonwealth Games Federation (CGF) turned in desperation to the British when Birmingham had in fact been scheduled to host the 2026 Games. Pressure, insiders say, came from the very top, with the Palace — The Queen was the patron of the Games with Prince Edward its vice-patron — stressing the importance of the Games to the Commonwealth.

    Ultimately, the British taxpayer footed the bill. The UK government committed more than £560 million to ensure the Games could go ahead, with the local council agreeing to another £190 million. Total expenditure was close to £1 billion
    .

    But after Victoria pulled out of hosting the 2026 Games, the chances of the British saving the event again, say those same insiders, will be remote. That is because of logistical challenges as well as the optics of committing yet more public money to sport when the country remains in the grip of a cost of living crisis.

    It leaves the CGF in serious danger of collapse, given how difficult it proved to find Victoria as a host in the first place.

    The federation was due to announce the location of the 2026 Games in 2019. But Cardiff, Kuala Lumpur, Edmonton, Calgary and Adelaide all withdrew from the bidding process and in the end it was not until February last year, as The Times revealed at the time, that the Australian state of Victoria agreed to take it on.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/commonwealth-games-the-event-that-no-one-wants-to-host-0hd9gwlpl

    Why don’t they just seriously reduce it in size so that it’s just the stuff that people might watch. Athletics etc

    So it will cost £200m not £2bn
    That would break a lot of rice bowls. Some people would be down to 2 rather than 4 Merc limos.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Leon said:

    Ugh. BIB.

    When Birmingham stepped up in 2017 and agreed to host last year’s Commonwealth Games, a warning was communicated from the government to the federation’s London offices that it was a rescue operation ministers would be reluctant to repeat.

    The Commonwealth Games was in crisis. When the South African city of Durban was awarded the 2022 event in 2015, it was the only bidder after Edmonton in Canada had withdrawn citing financial concerns.

    Two years later, however, and Durban was stripped of the rights after failing to meet requirements, with South African officials echoing their Canadian counterparts by blaming spiralling costs.

    It was then that the Commonwealth Games Federation (CGF) turned in desperation to the British when Birmingham had in fact been scheduled to host the 2026 Games. Pressure, insiders say, came from the very top, with the Palace — The Queen was the patron of the Games with Prince Edward its vice-patron — stressing the importance of the Games to the Commonwealth.

    Ultimately, the British taxpayer footed the bill. The UK government committed more than £560 million to ensure the Games could go ahead, with the local council agreeing to another £190 million. Total expenditure was close to £1 billion
    .

    But after Victoria pulled out of hosting the 2026 Games, the chances of the British saving the event again, say those same insiders, will be remote. That is because of logistical challenges as well as the optics of committing yet more public money to sport when the country remains in the grip of a cost of living crisis.

    It leaves the CGF in serious danger of collapse, given how difficult it proved to find Victoria as a host in the first place.

    The federation was due to announce the location of the 2026 Games in 2019. But Cardiff, Kuala Lumpur, Edmonton, Calgary and Adelaide all withdrew from the bidding process and in the end it was not until February last year, as The Times revealed at the time, that the Australian state of Victoria agreed to take it on.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/commonwealth-games-the-event-that-no-one-wants-to-host-0hd9gwlpl

    Why don’t they just seriously reduce it in size so that it’s just the stuff that people might watch. Athletics etc

    So it will cost £200m not £2bn
    Er do people not watch other sports eg netball? Yes, yes they do
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,900

    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Not any family holidays I've taken. Or, I suspect, 90% of the electorate.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1680954500100640768
    .@GillianKeegan: “Most of our private schools are nothing like Eton or Harrow, they’re far smaller and they charge a lot less. Many cost the same as a family holiday abroad”

    I know averages can be deceptive but how many families who use private schools *don't* have a hol abroad?

    In answer to the second question, a very large number. It was one of the things you noticed in the mid-level private schools I worked in and with, that many of the children talked about their camping holidays in Devon.

    I don't take foreign holidays myself very often (I haven't left the country since Covid hit) so I don't know how much they cost these days. However, prep school fees often hover around the £5-6,000 mark which doesn't sound ridiculously out of line for a family holiday in a tourist hotspot in say Spain.

    Keegan is an idiot but she isn't making a stupid point here. Far too much discourse about private schools is skewed towards the top end, not considering the cheaper end.

    That has rather different problems of its own that need addressing but they never get talked about.
    Are you sure about your figure of £5k-£6k? From what I can see that is the typical average PER TERM. In which case £15k would get you a good holiday in Europe.
    £15k is now about average day school fees. Inflation in school fees has been running a lot higher than inflation in holidays for quite some time. Back in my day(!) three decades ago, a week in Majorca for a family was about the same as the year’s school fees.

    Add me to the list of PBers who had one foreign holiday in seven years while attending a private secondary school. It’s a decision made by many, many parents in that boat.
    Is there a list of PBers who never set foot outside the UK until they turned 20 and whose parents would never even have considered sending them to private school? (State grammar and a week camping in Wales for me)
    It's a bit four Yorkshiremen on here this morning.
    My parents starved to death to send me to private school.
    But it was worth it.
    My parents kept me in a comp. Didn't even try to send me to a grammar school.

    And they never took me abroad until I was 19.

    Did it bother me? Not much. Didn't particularly want to go abroad. I suffer from heat migraines very easily so the idea of hot summers was not appealing.

    Would I have done better academically at a private school? Almost certainly. There was a significant problem with disruption in my local school that I wouldn't have had elsewhere. And you do see some quite stupid people who went to private schools getting on well in exams and careers.

    But would have I enjoyed it? Probably not very much. I don't like commuting and my local comp was literally at the end of my road whereas the nearest private school was a ten mile bus ride.
    I think this is probably my main personal issue with private schools - the advancement of the mediocre. We see it most obviously in our current government, half of whom I wouldn’t trust to make a cup of tea.
    That I would agree with.

    Which is one reason why I've always been adamant the way to get rid of them is to cut class sizes in the state sector dramatically. That would first, eliminate the edge private schools have and second, really improve education outcomes (much though I hate that cliche) for everyone.
    The strange element in the debate about private and state education is the lack of interest in the actual issue.

    Which is the better educational outcomes achieved by private schools.

    At this point the debate generally devolves to Olympic swimming pools, thick poshos and my favourite - “Over education”.

    Has anyone actually done a study on the effect of reducing class size without changing anything else?

    Edit : The reason for the avoidance of the issue is obvious, to me.
    Not in this country.

    That would require you to reduce class sizes...
    Once worked at a comprehensive that bust an absolute gut to get down to 24 maximum. Basically all the discrecionary spend in the budget went on that. That was probably not enough to really make a difference (you don't really change much by going from 30 to 24 in a well run school... Suspect the threshold is when 24 becomes 18). It ended up as more a selling point than anything else, and some of the consequent austerities (nothing printed full size, ever) were maddening.

    Can't find the source, but I've seen it said that the key problem isn't so much staff as buildings. Cut the default class size from 30 to 20 and you need 50% more classrooms for the same number of children. And nobody has any intention of paying for that, especially in one go. Hence the use of TAs in primaries, to improve the adult:child ratio without changing the size of classes.
    What are the ranges of class size in private schools? 15 early on, with slack handfuls for some A level subjects?

    My eldest has ended up in a class of 2 for A level Spanish…
    In my experience, there comes a point where class sizes are too small - 2 for A-level Spanish, for example. That's because the benefits of being in a group large enough to engender healthy debate and discussion are lost. I reckon anything less than 6 is too small for the cut and thrust of teacher-pupil and pupil-pupil interactions and the sharing of different ideas to benefit learning.
    My education take that will make everyone hate me is that schools should just get out of the business of teaching A Levels, and do that in sixth form colleges instead. Lots of schools run A Level groups that are too small to be economic and probably aren't ideal from an educational point of view.

    Trouble is that teachers like their tiny sixth form class (I know I did) and parents are often up in arms at the very idea.
    Totally agree. State sixth-form colleges are the crème de la crème of our education system. Sadly, their numbers have reduced from just under 100 to around 50 as some have had to merge with FE colleges, and others have been academised into federations. Scandalous. Another example of clueless Tory education policies.
    We have sixth form colleges in our area (Surrey) and, whilst I agree that they are very good, my secondary school was very poor at advising me on what A Levels to pick. I was basically left to figure it out for myself. Sadly, by the time I realised what I should have picked, it was too late.
    That's a management problem, not a general institutional problem.
    A good sixth form college ought to sort that before it's too late, and facilitate a subject change.
    In my first Biology VI class back in the ‘50’s, the Headmaster suddenly appeared, saying to one of us “You’re not doing this F****; you can get a State Scholarship if you do Maths”.
    And led the lad out without a word to the teacher, who was Head of Biology!
    Mind you, the Head and the Biology master were known to hate each other!
    Gaming the system via subject choice is not unknown, for instance Dudley Moore's organ scholarship from working class Dagenham to Oxford, or Boris's sisters comments on the advantages of Latin and Greek for Oxford entry.
    Did Dudley 'game it'? I'd have thought getting awarded an Oxford organ scholarship was pretty darn difficult, and the man was hardly a shit musician.
    Nowadays the trick is supposed to be to switch from public school to local authority sixth form college to benefit from the potential for positive discrim
    I don't really understand the logic of this. A levels are the bit of your schooling that really matters, surely - it's what gets you into a good Uni. If you're willing to entrust your child to the state system for that, then why not the whole lot, save yourself a load of money (and, for some, guilt) and give your childten the enormous benefit of learning among a diverse cross section of their fellow citizens?
    As said above, you tutor on the side to deliver the grades, and rely on the Oxbridge college wanting to maintain its decent 'not from public school' percentage to deliver the offer
    Why not just encourage your child to work hard, trust their teachers and let them find their own level? Kids who are hot-housed and spoon fed to get into top Unis will typically underperform there. I never got any tuition and we've not got any for our children.
    Ah yes, the "hot-housed and spoon fed" argument.

    Jessica Ennis-Hill shouldn't have bothered with all that ghastly over training. Once round the track on a weekend does just fine.

    If you want state schools to catch up with private school results, effort and money will be required.

    Take a look at the educational rankings internationally. Then look at the what the state schools manage.
    Money is up to the government. If you think that teachers at state schools aren't putting in any effort then I'm afraid you are showing your ignorance. Their dedication in the face of terrible pay and conditions is incredible.
    Private schools aren't training their kids to become great athletes, they are more like a combination of performance enhancing drugs and letting some competitors start the race half way round the track. That's why state school kids tend to do better at uni. I saw it when I was at university, some private school kids were very bright, but a lot had obviously been coached over the line and really shouldn't have been there.
    It's not about individual effort by teachers. it's about numbers and resources.

    What private schools are doing is attempting to create as much educational attainment as possible, with more resources.

    If the same methodology was applied to the state school sector, then you would get similar results.

    With the caveat of streaming the angry ones who are determined to disrupt others educations out of the way of the bright.

    Without the private sector, educational attainment in this country would be held up for stark international comparison.
    The private sector creams off an advantaged intake and then spends far more per pupil. Of course this leads to better results. If you adjust for these factors to get a fair comparison their results are not better. They are, in fact, worse.
    That's like saying that loads of people are as fast as Jessica Ennis-Hill - once you take away the training.

    The actual results achieved by the state are worse than those of the private sector. This is the fault of the state system, not the fault of the private system.

    The "creaming off" claim, by the way, has been debunked. There are a plenty of pupils in the state system who should be getting their 3 A* etc.

    Bags of Moe Sbihi's out there, waiting for the talent scouts...

    But they aren't. This isn't because of private school mind control rays - it is because they are not being trained to their potential.

    The idea that the fix is somehow to get all the BrightPrivateSchoolToffMorons to go to state schools, to just lift the attainment numbers, is to abandon those who could actually benefit from the same level of education.
    Give state schools more resources and see what they can do. Right now you are simply saying that someone on a motorbike can go faster than someone who is running. Of course they can.
    Right now the people who are being abandoned are the kids growing up under a government that is cutting spending per pupil.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,468
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Great header, @Cyclefree, it's baffling that this hasn't cut through more - surely everyone knows the local subpostmaster?

    Not sure they do, especially in urban areas. I visit the PO in Godalming maybe twice a year to send a registered letter or a large parcel. There's always a queue and they hurry you through briskly. I've never had the chance to chat to them or find out their names, let alone whether they were affected by the scandal. Isn't that sadly typical?
    Is that the PO's own estabblishment? Surely the scandal is over the subpostmasters who own their own shops? Or do I misunderstand?
    No, you're right. On reflection I don't think there even is a subpostmaster in our area. I think most small towns have one, but not urban areas? Obviously that doesn't mean we shouldn't be horrified by what Cyclefree describes, but it's not personal for most people, and that probably dampens the reaction.
    PS I suspect it does not help that the PO system has been so fragmented and monkeyed about by the PO - POs, both main and sub, closed apparently at random and put in this and that shop also apparently at random, over the last 20-30 years.
    I'm pretty sure Post Offices are my Dictator For The Day thing.

    Every parish shall have one. (OK, not the stupid microparishes you get in the centre of cities like Cambridge. But you get the idea.)

    It shall be in a suitably dignified building of its own- not a counter in a corner of something else.

    There shall be at least three flags outside, and a regularly planted window box or hanging basket.

    It shall be a formal counter for doing all those bits of business that need a formal counter- postal, banking, local and central government.

    Having made this happen, I shall resign my position. A grateful nation can build statues of me later.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Nigelb said:

    I might have been slightly unfair to the chair.
    Who appears, finally, to have lost patience with the PO too.

    Sir Wyn gives determination on Post Office disclosure failings
    https://www.postofficehorizoninquiry.org.uk/news/sir-wyn-gives-determination-post-office-disclosure-failings
    Sir Wyn Williams has announced today that all future Inquiry requests for evidence to the Post Office will carry a notice under Section 21 of the Inquiries Act 2005, which he said “carries a threat of a criminal sanction” (including a sentence of up to 51 weeks’ imprisonment).

    The announcement follows an urgent disclosure hearing the Chair convened on Tuesday 11 July to address what he called “grossly unsatisfactory” disclosure failings by the Post Office.

    After hearing submissions from legal representatives of former sub-postmasters, the Post Office and the National Federation of SubPostmasters, Sir Wyn decided to postpone hearing from witnesses due to give evidence in weeks commencing 10 and 17 July 2023, until relevant disclosure was complete. He writes: “I was clear in my mind that this represented the best way forward both in relation to evidence gathering but also, ultimately, in relation to the most efficacious use of the Inquiry’s time.”

    Sir Wyn has also today issued further Directions to the Post Office, which state that he will hold a further disclosure hearing on 5 September 2023 at 10:00am. He said Post Office’s General Counsel, Ben Foat, will be required to attend to give further evidence and Sir Wyn will determine who, if anyone else, should give evidence after making further enquiries of the Post Office as to the identity of senior persons who are directly and substantially involved in the disclosure for Phase 4 of the Inquiry.

    He also said it is probable that from now on he will treat the issue of disclosure as he has treated the issue of compensation, by holding regular discrete hearings. He anticipates disclosure hearings will be held at regular intervals throughout the remainder of the Inquiry.

    In his determination, Sir Wyn says “I stress, of course, that holding such hearings should be unnecessary and they will, inevitably, impact upon the smooth running of the Inquiry, and will impact on the work of all Core Participants and the Inquiry team.”

    He said the hearings have become necessary, because of the “significant failures in disclosure on the part of the Post Office”.
    ..

    Should not sanctions for repeated non-disclosure include being cited AND jailed for contempt of Parliament and/or violation of parliamentary privilege? Including incarceration somewhere in the bowels of Westminster.

    AND any reason this should NOT also include the minister in question???

    Send a letter to Kemi
    And on it should be writ -
    "Kindly please forward
    To someone giving a shit"
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    Is OGH on holiday soon?


    He will be arrested. Then bailed. A trial will start in about 2 years time. So plenty of time for him to get re-elected....

    The arrest will actually increase his support.
    Is that

    a) a prediction
    b) trolling
    c) a fantasy

    ?
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855

    Ugh. BIB.

    When Birmingham stepped up in 2017 and agreed to host last year’s Commonwealth Games, a warning was communicated from the government to the federation’s London offices that it was a rescue operation ministers would be reluctant to repeat.

    The Commonwealth Games was in crisis. When the South African city of Durban was awarded the 2022 event in 2015, it was the only bidder after Edmonton in Canada had withdrawn citing financial concerns.

    Two years later, however, and Durban was stripped of the rights after failing to meet requirements, with South African officials echoing their Canadian counterparts by blaming spiralling costs.

    It was then that the Commonwealth Games Federation (CGF) turned in desperation to the British when Birmingham had in fact been scheduled to host the 2026 Games. Pressure, insiders say, came from the very top, with the Palace — The Queen was the patron of the Games with Prince Edward its vice-patron — stressing the importance of the Games to the Commonwealth.

    Ultimately, the British taxpayer footed the bill. The UK government committed more than £560 million to ensure the Games could go ahead, with the local council agreeing to another £190 million. Total expenditure was close to £1 billion
    .

    But after Victoria pulled out of hosting the 2026 Games, the chances of the British saving the event again, say those same insiders, will be remote. That is because of logistical challenges as well as the optics of committing yet more public money to sport when the country remains in the grip of a cost of living crisis.

    It leaves the CGF in serious danger of collapse, given how difficult it proved to find Victoria as a host in the first place.

    The federation was due to announce the location of the 2026 Games in 2019. But Cardiff, Kuala Lumpur, Edmonton, Calgary and Adelaide all withdrew from the bidding process and in the end it was not until February last year, as The Times revealed at the time, that the Australian state of Victoria agreed to take it on.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/commonwealth-games-the-event-that-no-one-wants-to-host-0hd9gwlpl

    You can bet your ass KCIII is doing exactly the same thing now.

    It's dead if even Canada and Australia can't be arsed with it. Only solution, welcome UAE or Qatar into the commonwealth.
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855
    I have cycled 24 miles today, the TdF are only doing 22 km. Amateurs.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Carnyx said:

    felix said:

    Great header, @Cyclefree, it's baffling that this hasn't cut through more - surely everyone knows the local subpostmaster?

    Really. Who on earth writes letters these days let alone go to a post office?
    The scandal hjas been going on for a very long time, since 1999.

    Many people were paid their pensions that way. Some still are.

    Many more still have to, to get at banking and cash (ANABOBAZINA TRIGGER WARNING) because of bank closures.

    And there are lots of things that can't be sent by a standard 1st or 2nd class stamp especially after RM monkeyed up the postal rates. It's just about possible to do it online but you need very accurate scales and be able to wait for the postie to collect.


    Happy to oblige.

    What do they need cash for?

    Is it

    a) to buy illegal drugs
    b) to take illegal drugs or
    c) to pay someone outside the glare of HMRC

    ?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,900
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Not any family holidays I've taken. Or, I suspect, 90% of the electorate.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1680954500100640768
    .@GillianKeegan: “Most of our private schools are nothing like Eton or Harrow, they’re far smaller and they charge a lot less. Many cost the same as a family holiday abroad”

    I know averages can be deceptive but how many families who use private schools *don't* have a hol abroad?

    In answer to the second question, a very large number. It was one of the things you noticed in the mid-level private schools I worked in and with, that many of the children talked about their camping holidays in Devon.

    I don't take foreign holidays myself very often (I haven't left the country since Covid hit) so I don't know how much they cost these days. However, prep school fees often hover around the £5-6,000 mark which doesn't sound ridiculously out of line for a family holiday in a tourist hotspot in say Spain.

    Keegan is an idiot but she isn't making a stupid point here. Far too much discourse about private schools is skewed towards the top end, not considering the cheaper end.

    That has rather different problems of its own that need addressing but they never get talked about.
    Are you sure about your figure of £5k-£6k? From what I can see that is the typical average PER TERM. In which case £15k would get you a good holiday in Europe.
    £15k is now about average day school fees. Inflation in school fees has been running a lot higher than inflation in holidays for quite some time. Back in my day(!) three decades ago, a week in Majorca for a family was about the same as the year’s school fees.

    Add me to the list of PBers who had one foreign holiday in seven years while attending a private secondary school. It’s a decision made by many, many parents in that boat.
    Is there a list of PBers who never set foot outside the UK until they turned 20 and whose parents would never even have considered sending them to private school? (State grammar and a week camping in Wales for me)
    It's a bit four Yorkshiremen on here this morning.
    My parents starved to death to send me to private school.
    But it was worth it.
    My parents kept me in a comp. Didn't even try to send me to a grammar school.

    And they never took me abroad until I was 19.

    Did it bother me? Not much. Didn't particularly want to go abroad. I suffer from heat migraines very easily so the idea of hot summers was not appealing.

    Would I have done better academically at a private school? Almost certainly. There was a significant problem with disruption in my local school that I wouldn't have had elsewhere. And you do see some quite stupid people who went to private schools getting on well in exams and careers.

    But would have I enjoyed it? Probably not very much. I don't like commuting and my local comp was literally at the end of my road whereas the nearest private school was a ten mile bus ride.
    I think this is probably my main personal issue with private schools - the advancement of the mediocre. We see it most obviously in our current government, half of whom I wouldn’t trust to make a cup of tea.
    That I would agree with.

    Which is one reason why I've always been adamant the way to get rid of them is to cut class sizes in the state sector dramatically. That would first, eliminate the edge private schools have and second, really improve education outcomes (much though I hate that cliche) for everyone.
    The strange element in the debate about private and state education is the lack of interest in the actual issue.

    Which is the better educational outcomes achieved by private schools.

    At this point the debate generally devolves to Olympic swimming pools, thick poshos and my favourite - “Over education”.

    Has anyone actually done a study on the effect of reducing class size without changing anything else?

    Edit : The reason for the avoidance of the issue is obvious, to me.
    Not in this country.

    That would require you to reduce class sizes...
    Once worked at a comprehensive that bust an absolute gut to get down to 24 maximum. Basically all the discrecionary spend in the budget went on that. That was probably not enough to really make a difference (you don't really change much by going from 30 to 24 in a well run school... Suspect the threshold is when 24 becomes 18). It ended up as more a selling point than anything else, and some of the consequent austerities (nothing printed full size, ever) were maddening.

    Can't find the source, but I've seen it said that the key problem isn't so much staff as buildings. Cut the default class size from 30 to 20 and you need 50% more classrooms for the same number of children. And nobody has any intention of paying for that, especially in one go. Hence the use of TAs in primaries, to improve the adult:child ratio without changing the size of classes.
    What are the ranges of class size in private schools? 15 early on, with slack handfuls for some A level subjects?

    My eldest has ended up in a class of 2 for A level Spanish…
    In my experience, there comes a point where class sizes are too small - 2 for A-level Spanish, for example. That's because the benefits of being in a group large enough to engender healthy debate and discussion are lost. I reckon anything less than 6 is too small for the cut and thrust of teacher-pupil and pupil-pupil interactions and the sharing of different ideas to benefit learning.
    My education take that will make everyone hate me is that schools should just get out of the business of teaching A Levels, and do that in sixth form colleges instead. Lots of schools run A Level groups that are too small to be economic and probably aren't ideal from an educational point of view.

    Trouble is that teachers like their tiny sixth form class (I know I did) and parents are often up in arms at the very idea.
    Totally agree. State sixth-form colleges are the crème de la crème of our education system. Sadly, their numbers have reduced from just under 100 to around 50 as some have had to merge with FE colleges, and others have been academised into federations. Scandalous. Another example of clueless Tory education policies.
    We have sixth form colleges in our area (Surrey) and, whilst I agree that they are very good, my secondary school was very poor at advising me on what A Levels to pick. I was basically left to figure it out for myself. Sadly, by the time I realised what I should have picked, it was too late.
    That's a management problem, not a general institutional problem.
    A good sixth form college ought to sort that before it's too late, and facilitate a subject change.
    In my first Biology VI class back in the ‘50’s, the Headmaster suddenly appeared, saying to one of us “You’re not doing this F****; you can get a State Scholarship if you do Maths”.
    And led the lad out without a word to the teacher, who was Head of Biology!
    Mind you, the Head and the Biology master were known to hate each other!
    Gaming the system via subject choice is not unknown, for instance Dudley Moore's organ scholarship from working class Dagenham to Oxford, or Boris's sisters comments on the advantages of Latin and Greek for Oxford entry.
    Did Dudley 'game it'? I'd have thought getting awarded an Oxford organ scholarship was pretty darn difficult, and the man was hardly a shit musician.
    Nowadays the trick is supposed to be to switch from public school to local authority sixth form college to benefit from the potential for positive discrim
    I don't really understand the logic of this. A levels are the bit of your schooling that really matters, surely - it's what gets you into a good Uni. If you're willing to entrust your child to the state system for that, then why not the whole lot, save yourself a load of money (and, for some, guilt) and give your childten the enormous benefit of learning among a diverse cross section of their fellow citizens?
    As said above, you tutor on the side to deliver the grades, and rely on the Oxbridge college wanting to maintain its decent 'not from public school' percentage to deliver the offer
    Why not just encourage your child to work hard, trust their teachers and let them find their own level? Kids who are hot-housed and spoon fed to get into top Unis will typically underperform there. I never got any tuition and we've not got any for our children.
    Ah yes, the "hot-housed and spoon fed" argument.

    Jessica Ennis-Hill shouldn't have bothered with all that ghastly over training. Once round the track on a weekend does just fine.

    If you want state schools to catch up with private school results, effort and money will be required.

    Take a look at the educational rankings internationally. Then look at the what the state schools manage.
    Money is up to the government. If you think that teachers at state schools aren't putting in any effort then I'm afraid you are showing your ignorance. Their dedication in the face of terrible pay and conditions is incredible.
    Private schools aren't training their kids to become great athletes, they are more like a combination of performance enhancing drugs and letting some competitors start the race half way round the track. That's why state school kids tend to do better at uni. I saw it when I was at university, some private school kids were very bright, but a lot had obviously been coached over the line and really shouldn't have been there.
    It's not about individual effort by teachers. it's about numbers and resources.

    What private schools are doing is attempting to create as much educational attainment as possible, with more resources.

    If the same methodology was applied to the state school sector, then you would get similar results.

    With the caveat of streaming the angry ones who are determined to disrupt others educations out of the way of the bright.

    Without the private sector, educational attainment in this country would be held up for stark international comparison.
    The private sector creams off an advantaged intake and then spends far more per pupil. Of course this leads to better results. If you adjust for these factors to get a fair comparison their results are not better. They are, in fact, worse.
    And if you think that schools should have more resources, vote for that to happen for every child, don't simply secure it for your own child and vote for a real terms per pupil spending cut for everyone else.
    But who is offering it?
    Last time Labour was in power real spending per pupil went up. Under the Tories it has gone down. Draw your own conclusions.
    My point is that although Labour did some steps in that direction, ultimately they still failed to make spending per pupil rise to the levels where the state sector would seriously rival private schools.

    And money is now much tighter.

    It would take a very bold vision to make the reforms needed to our system. I do not believe Starmer has it. Certainly Phillipson does not.
    Yes you are probably right. Education isn't a priority especially as many of those for whom it is a priority have opted out of the regular school system and vote for parties that cut schools spending. But equally I am sure that education is much more of a priority for Labour than for the Tories and that is a major motivation for me to vote Labour, as it is for many people. Which party do people with school age children vote for?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,148

    Is OGH on holiday soon?


    He will be arrested. Then bailed. A trial will start in about 2 years time. So plenty of time for him to get re-elected....

    The arrest will actually increase his support.
    Is that

    a) a prediction
    b) trolling
    c) a fantasy

    ?
    A sad, sad prediction, based on knowledge of the US legal system.

    And the depths of the MAGA lunacy.

    There is no way that any trial will actually begin before the election.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044
    edited July 2023

    Leon said:

    Ugh. BIB.

    When Birmingham stepped up in 2017 and agreed to host last year’s Commonwealth Games, a warning was communicated from the government to the federation’s London offices that it was a rescue operation ministers would be reluctant to repeat.

    The Commonwealth Games was in crisis. When the South African city of Durban was awarded the 2022 event in 2015, it was the only bidder after Edmonton in Canada had withdrawn citing financial concerns.

    Two years later, however, and Durban was stripped of the rights after failing to meet requirements, with South African officials echoing their Canadian counterparts by blaming spiralling costs.

    It was then that the Commonwealth Games Federation (CGF) turned in desperation to the British when Birmingham had in fact been scheduled to host the 2026 Games. Pressure, insiders say, came from the very top, with the Palace — The Queen was the patron of the Games with Prince Edward its vice-patron — stressing the importance of the Games to the Commonwealth.

    Ultimately, the British taxpayer footed the bill. The UK government committed more than £560 million to ensure the Games could go ahead, with the local council agreeing to another £190 million. Total expenditure was close to £1 billion
    .

    But after Victoria pulled out of hosting the 2026 Games, the chances of the British saving the event again, say those same insiders, will be remote. That is because of logistical challenges as well as the optics of committing yet more public money to sport when the country remains in the grip of a cost of living crisis.

    It leaves the CGF in serious danger of collapse, given how difficult it proved to find Victoria as a host in the first place.

    The federation was due to announce the location of the 2026 Games in 2019. But Cardiff, Kuala Lumpur, Edmonton, Calgary and Adelaide all withdrew from the bidding process and in the end it was not until February last year, as The Times revealed at the time, that the Australian state of Victoria agreed to take it on.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/commonwealth-games-the-event-that-no-one-wants-to-host-0hd9gwlpl

    Why don’t they just seriously reduce it in size so that it’s just the stuff that people might watch. Athletics etc

    So it will cost £200m not £2bn
    Er do people not watch other sports eg netball? Yes, yes they do
    Isn't one obvious solution to regularly run the games in the same places that have hosted them during the last 20-30 years? I assume all that infrastructure hasn't just vanished...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,498
    Miklosvar said:

    I have cycled 24 miles today, the TdF are only doing 22 km. Amateurs.

    I did a 10K run yesterday, and got my best-ever 5K time in the process. Felt absolutely fine afterwards.

    Today I take a leisurely 10K jog, get home, take my sock off, and find it is filled with blood from a toenail that's immolated itself. Didn't hurt at all until I took the sock off - reminiscent of Wile E. Coyote not falling until he realises he's run off the cliff.

    Now it hurts like *****.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,769

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Not any family holidays I've taken. Or, I suspect, 90% of the electorate.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1680954500100640768
    .@GillianKeegan: “Most of our private schools are nothing like Eton or Harrow, they’re far smaller and they charge a lot less. Many cost the same as a family holiday abroad”

    I know averages can be deceptive but how many families who use private schools *don't* have a hol abroad?

    In answer to the second question, a very large number. It was one of the things you noticed in the mid-level private schools I worked in and with, that many of the children talked about their camping holidays in Devon.

    I don't take foreign holidays myself very often (I haven't left the country since Covid hit) so I don't know how much they cost these days. However, prep school fees often hover around the £5-6,000 mark which doesn't sound ridiculously out of line for a family holiday in a tourist hotspot in say Spain.

    Keegan is an idiot but she isn't making a stupid point here. Far too much discourse about private schools is skewed towards the top end, not considering the cheaper end.

    That has rather different problems of its own that need addressing but they never get talked about.
    Are you sure about your figure of £5k-£6k? From what I can see that is the typical average PER TERM. In which case £15k would get you a good holiday in Europe.
    £15k is now about average day school fees. Inflation in school fees has been running a lot higher than inflation in holidays for quite some time. Back in my day(!) three decades ago, a week in Majorca for a family was about the same as the year’s school fees.

    Add me to the list of PBers who had one foreign holiday in seven years while attending a private secondary school. It’s a decision made by many, many parents in that boat.
    Is there a list of PBers who never set foot outside the UK until they turned 20 and whose parents would never even have considered sending them to private school? (State grammar and a week camping in Wales for me)
    It's a bit four Yorkshiremen on here this morning.
    My parents starved to death to send me to private school.
    But it was worth it.
    My parents kept me in a comp. Didn't even try to send me to a grammar school.

    And they never took me abroad until I was 19.

    Did it bother me? Not much. Didn't particularly want to go abroad. I suffer from heat migraines very easily so the idea of hot summers was not appealing.

    Would I have done better academically at a private school? Almost certainly. There was a significant problem with disruption in my local school that I wouldn't have had elsewhere. And you do see some quite stupid people who went to private schools getting on well in exams and careers.

    But would have I enjoyed it? Probably not very much. I don't like commuting and my local comp was literally at the end of my road whereas the nearest private school was a ten mile bus ride.
    I think this is probably my main personal issue with private schools - the advancement of the mediocre. We see it most obviously in our current government, half of whom I wouldn’t trust to make a cup of tea.
    That I would agree with.

    Which is one reason why I've always been adamant the way to get rid of them is to cut class sizes in the state sector dramatically. That would first, eliminate the edge private schools have and second, really improve education outcomes (much though I hate that cliche) for everyone.
    The strange element in the debate about private and state education is the lack of interest in the actual issue.

    Which is the better educational outcomes achieved by private schools.

    At this point the debate generally devolves to Olympic swimming pools, thick poshos and my favourite - “Over education”.

    Has anyone actually done a study on the effect of reducing class size without changing anything else?

    Edit : The reason for the avoidance of the issue is obvious, to me.
    Not in this country.

    That would require you to reduce class sizes...
    Once worked at a comprehensive that bust an absolute gut to get down to 24 maximum. Basically all the discrecionary spend in the budget went on that. That was probably not enough to really make a difference (you don't really change much by going from 30 to 24 in a well run school... Suspect the threshold is when 24 becomes 18). It ended up as more a selling point than anything else, and some of the consequent austerities (nothing printed full size, ever) were maddening.

    Can't find the source, but I've seen it said that the key problem isn't so much staff as buildings. Cut the default class size from 30 to 20 and you need 50% more classrooms for the same number of children. And nobody has any intention of paying for that, especially in one go. Hence the use of TAs in primaries, to improve the adult:child ratio without changing the size of classes.
    What are the ranges of class size in private schools? 15 early on, with slack handfuls for some A level subjects?

    My eldest has ended up in a class of 2 for A level Spanish…
    In my experience, there comes a point where class sizes are too small - 2 for A-level Spanish, for example. That's because the benefits of being in a group large enough to engender healthy debate and discussion are lost. I reckon anything less than 6 is too small for the cut and thrust of teacher-pupil and pupil-pupil interactions and the sharing of different ideas to benefit learning.
    My education take that will make everyone hate me is that schools should just get out of the business of teaching A Levels, and do that in sixth form colleges instead. Lots of schools run A Level groups that are too small to be economic and probably aren't ideal from an educational point of view.

    Trouble is that teachers like their tiny sixth form class (I know I did) and parents are often up in arms at the very idea.
    Totally agree. State sixth-form colleges are the crème de la crème of our education system. Sadly, their numbers have reduced from just under 100 to around 50 as some have had to merge with FE colleges, and others have been academised into federations. Scandalous. Another example of clueless Tory education policies.
    We have sixth form colleges in our area (Surrey) and, whilst I agree that they are very good, my secondary school was very poor at advising me on what A Levels to pick. I was basically left to figure it out for myself. Sadly, by the time I realised what I should have picked, it was too late.
    That's a management problem, not a general institutional problem.
    A good sixth form college ought to sort that before it's too late, and facilitate a subject change.
    In my first Biology VI class back in the ‘50’s, the Headmaster suddenly appeared, saying to one of us “You’re not doing this F****; you can get a State Scholarship if you do Maths”.
    And led the lad out without a word to the teacher, who was Head of Biology!
    Mind you, the Head and the Biology master were known to hate each other!
    Gaming the system via subject choice is not unknown, for instance Dudley Moore's organ scholarship from working class Dagenham to Oxford, or Boris's sisters comments on the advantages of Latin and Greek for Oxford entry.
    Did Dudley 'game it'? I'd have thought getting awarded an Oxford organ scholarship was pretty darn difficult, and the man was hardly a shit musician.
    Nowadays the trick is supposed to be to switch from public school to local authority sixth form college to benefit from the potential for positive discrim
    I don't really understand the logic of this. A levels are the bit of your schooling that really matters, surely - it's what gets you into a good Uni. If you're willing to entrust your child to the state system for that, then why not the whole lot, save yourself a load of money (and, for some, guilt) and give your childten the enormous benefit of learning among a diverse cross section of their fellow citizens?
    As said above, you tutor on the side to deliver the grades, and rely on the Oxbridge college wanting to maintain its decent 'not from public school' percentage to deliver the offer
    Why not just encourage your child to work hard, trust their teachers and let them find their own level? Kids who are hot-housed and spoon fed to get into top Unis will typically underperform there. I never got any tuition and we've not got any for our children.
    Ah yes, the "hot-housed and spoon fed" argument.

    Jessica Ennis-Hill shouldn't have bothered with all that ghastly over training. Once round the track on a weekend does just fine.

    If you want state schools to catch up with private school results, effort and money will be required.

    Take a look at the educational rankings internationally. Then look at the what the state schools manage.
    Money is up to the government. If you think that teachers at state schools aren't putting in any effort then I'm afraid you are showing your ignorance. Their dedication in the face of terrible pay and conditions is incredible.
    Private schools aren't training their kids to become great athletes, they are more like a combination of performance enhancing drugs and letting some competitors start the race half way round the track. That's why state school kids tend to do better at uni. I saw it when I was at university, some private school kids were very bright, but a lot had obviously been coached over the line and really shouldn't have been there.
    It's not about individual effort by teachers. it's about numbers and resources.

    What private schools are doing is attempting to create as much educational attainment as possible, with more resources.

    If the same methodology was applied to the state school sector, then you would get similar results.

    With the caveat of streaming the angry ones who are determined to disrupt others educations out of the way of the bright.

    Without the private sector, educational attainment in this country would be held up for stark international comparison.
    The private sector creams off an advantaged intake and then spends far more per pupil. Of course this leads to better results. If you adjust for these factors to get a fair comparison their results are not better. They are, in fact, worse.
    And if you think that schools should have more resources, vote for that to happen for every child, don't simply secure it for your own child and vote for a real terms per pupil spending cut for everyone else.
    But who is offering it?
    Last time Labour was in power real spending per pupil went up. Under the Tories it has gone down. Draw your own conclusions.
    My point is that although Labour did some steps in that direction, ultimately they still failed to make spending per pupil rise to the levels where the state sector would seriously rival private schools.

    And money is now much tighter.

    It would take a very bold vision to make the reforms needed to our system. I do not believe Starmer has it. Certainly Phillipson does not.
    Yes you are probably right. Education isn't a priority especially as many of those for whom it is a priority have opted out of the regular school system and vote for parties that cut schools spending. But equally I am sure that education is much more of a priority for Labour than for the Tories and that is a major motivation for me to vote Labour, as it is for many people. Which party do people with school age children vote for?
    Truthfully, I think very often it depends on other factors. Whether they own their own house. Or how far they depend on other public services.

    One of the difficulties with education is it is an incredibly complex subject but most people think it's very easy. What's worse is if they had a good education themselves they paradoxically are more likely to assume it's easy as they never saw the problems.

    Therefore too often parents will just swallow superficial policies and assume that will be all right, then decide their actual vote on other things.
This discussion has been closed.