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The front pages after a dramatic day – politicalbetting.com
The front pages after a dramatic day – politicalbetting.com
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The front pages after a dramatic day – politicalbetting.com
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That's the number that Putin allegedly paid.
The mean Labour lead from the last six national opinion polls is exactly 20%
The mean Conservative vote share is 26%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
Belarus is now even more bound up in the fate of Russia, and consequently even more vulnerable.
After years of doubling down on lies and brutality, it is clear that Putinism is turning out of road, and equally paralysed about what to do next.
We are just likely to see more and more strikes and disruption and not just from the likes of the RMT who are politically motivated.
Or he could emerge much stronger internally as potential plotters have realised that the armed forces are not obviously disloyal to him and the one big active source of opposition has been forced out of the country.
Time will of course tell.
I don't get a vote as not in the BMA.
Cash, or bank transfer?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/06/24/levy-net-zero-green-tory-rishi-sunak-this-week-170-pounds/
Households will pay a £170-a-year green levy on energy bills in the coming days, with Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt accused of “slyly” shifting costs back to consumers.
The Telegraph has learned that the two-year suspension of green levies announced last autumn is to end from the beginning of July, after just nine months.
There seems to be quite a bit of challenging, or demotion of, Putin on Russian TV and media.
Here some more questioning of his authority.
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1672857740920668160
They have absolutely no understanding of the issues and pressures that ordinary people face.
I’ve no enthusiasm for starmer or labour but, by god, this lot just don’t get how dire things are for many many people at the moment.
Which is probably a good thing, as it gives the possibility of less imperialist figures coming to the fore - but obviously it gives space for ultra-nationalists nutters as well.
An interesting thing to emerge is that La Liga has (last season, anyway, we'll see if it's a blip and I over-correct) win results (home/draw/away) identical to the EPL but goal total markets almost identical to Serie A (100 goals lower, roughly).
Probably going to tentatively return to La Liga as I think (hard to be sure given lack of experience) my bad run there was due to misfortune. I did have four bets in a row fail by a single goal, although the minor shift in odds guidance might also be a reflection my numbers were slighty off-kilter, whereas the Serie A/Ligue 1 odds are only shifting by a small amounts, and the EPL's guideline odds are staying as is.
Sunak and Hunt are following a policy of inflation reduction and at the same time do have net zero responsibilities
This news, together with yesterday's suggestion they may overrule pay review bodies, may well be responsible but it is politically tone deaf and a Starmer majority is looking a certainty
However, Starmer and Reeves will face the same economic winter and how they deal with it will be fascinating
Not sure how wise this is
Reeves and Starmer will find the goodwill they have when they come to power will evaporate very very quickly if they cannot get on top of these issues.
And that dialogue is very pro-war, as they always are.
Apparently the Kremlin spokesman said that the people who took part in the mutiny wouldn't be charged, while the others would sign contracts with the Ministry of Defence. But the Kremlin spokesman lies a lot, so who knows. And I think if you were in Wagner right now you'd be reluctant to sign a contract to go back to a war zone with somebody from the Ministry of Defence deciding how dangerous an assignment you'll be getting.
The modus operandi there in the past has been you can say what you like, provided you are largely ignored, but if it becomes a problem, and then you will be ruthlessly held to account for it.
Putin: All mouth and no trousers
Higher interest rates don’t only take money out of the econ9my from borrowers but also fr9m savers.
We need a balance between spend and save. People saving for their retirement and latter years is a benefit as it reduces what the govt needs to pay out in terms of additional benefits.
It also makes sense to have six months salary saved in case of unemployment and savings for emergencies.
Saving is not all bad.
I've seen these open chats on Russian media before.
However, Putin has clearly been humiliated ; he presented a video describing the Wagner group as an enormous threat and traitors, and also appeared more flustered than at any time or video, in his career.
This makes reasserting authority a huge priority in any normal situation, but, as I mentioned yesterday, Peskov also said that "no new video from Putin " was planned, and like other official Russian sources, heaped all the praise on Lukashenko. I think his position is not too good.
June 2023: the recommendations of the independent pay review bodies are simply unaffordable.
The person who did the saving isn't getting taxed in any meaningful way, because they have gone to a place where there is no tax. (At least we assume that's the case. Maybe Hell is an eternal self assessment form.)
The people who end up with less money because of inheritance tax are the inheritors, who have generally neither saved, toiled nor spun for what they receive. That's not to be begrudged, but a world where a person's life chances depend more on inheritance and less on what they do is not a good one. You can't abolish the inheritance effect, but it's not really something to encourage, I reckon.
If your starting point is that taxes are a necessary unpleasantness to pay for a good society, then tax paid when you receive an inheritance is probably one of the less objectionable ones.
I'd say it's really that the Govt stopping pandering to the industry.
I guess there is a conversation about whether energy bills or taxation are more progressive - but large energy bills trend to wealthier people in larger houses. Anyone who invests in improving their own house will pay less green levy.
It's stocks and shares ISAs/pensions and assets where you can save to generate a real return, or betting of course.
They should honour the independent pay reviews recommendations.
About the only cat they can pull out of the bag now, is a serious reduction in the 20% rate of income tax, down to 15%. Even that might not be enough.
Also Wagner are allegedly still in control of a bunch of Russian air bases. Sounds sensible, you never know when you'll need a Russian air base.
I imagine he will have a lot of personal security in Belarus.
Words to live by, day in, day out.
Increasing the personal allowance would be better though as it would be relatively more beneficial for those on lower incomes. Say put it up to £15,000 pa.
So if the state confiscates all or most assets on the death of their owner which would have been inherited otherwise and reduces accumulation of wealth then support for capitalism beyond the top 10% of earners in the private sector will fall even further
Age splits from last night's Opinium:
18-34 C13 L65
35-49 C19 L50
50-64 C27 L41
65+ C40 L27
The quickest way to a depression would be if we all stopped consuming and started saving - that's pretty much what happened during the pandemic and as soon as lockdowns and restrictions ended out came the cash and off shot the economic indicators from PMI to (eventually) CPI and RPI.
What's needed is a balance which rewards and encourages saving (particularly for pension provision) but which doesn't stop the economy in its tracks.
The current problem which isn't being considered is the renewed and rapid growth of debt, both corporate and personal. It's as though having spent the cash piles accumulated during Covid, people and businesses haven't wanted to stop spending and consuming and have just carried on funding it all by borrowing (despite rising interest rates). That new debt bomb is developing nicely under the economy.
I could imagine a deal where Putin pays Lukashenko who then retains Prigozhin as his Praetorian Guard. Prigozhin is horrible but he has the most effective army in those parts.
Not sure this is sensible speculation but then who knows ?
They appear to have decided that the needs and wishes of core Conservative voters are much more important than those of core Labour voters, and will reap a well-deserved harvest of apathy and disillusionment if and when this becomes obvious. It's all very well saying that we're headed for a change election, but what happens when the voters realise that the principal change on offer is to who's going to be appearing on television to try to justify all this crap, whilst the rotten system is kept practically intact?
He's obviously in bad odour with Putin who has been trying to take over Belarus for years, and without whom Lukashenko would have been out at the last election.
He isn't Belarusian.
Belarus' military is too busy curbing unrest at home to attack Ukraine, and due to the geography of Ukraine's northern border it's not an ideal base anyway (Russia did use it for their attack on Kyiv, which may politely be called the greatest military disaster since the Carthaginian elephants trampled the wrong army at the battle of Zama).
If he is made president either Putin will shoot him or the Belarusians will.
So if that was the deal and he's accepted it either he's as stupid as Dominic Cummings or he was in imminent danger of being overwhelmed and shot anyway.
The downside being you tie the money up for many years and various govts change the rules and regulations around these funds.
The latest wheezes will be announced by Hunt this week.
Low interest rates will have discouraged saving on deposit which would help spur consumer spending.
It is debt and also the cost of debt which is spiralling and won’t come down anytime soon.
We are heading for a Rocky few years. I don’t have faith in any politicians to deal with it, it will simply be more of the same until we reach the end of the road.
In any case, I'm not sure that the identity of the individual in charge in Minsk is of much relevance to the predicament of Ukraine. The Belarusian military is far too feeble to open a new front and try to march on Kyiv, and there's no evidence to suggest that Russia has the resources to do so utilising the territory of Belarus as a jumping off point.
'So you are on the same page as the government'
He went on to ask her to outline one measure Labour would take to combat inflation and her response was to see banks paid savers a fair rate of interest !!!!!!
As I have said before you can change who is in no 10, but you cannot change the economics
As @MaxPB pointed out yesterday, there’s a million more civil servants today than in 2016. Pay rises need to be linked to productivity, and there needs to be an awful lot of replacement of labour with capital within the public sector.
https://tass.com/russia/1637677
Crossing the Moscow ring road and legging it over the Kremlin wall ain't so easy as some dimwitted commentators supposed. One British news organ, I can't remember which, maybe BBC or Daily Telegraph, talked about the Prigozhin force arriving in Moscow around midnight yesterday. Yeah right.
Kadyrov himself has threatened before to "go to Moscow" to have strong words with the central command, although not in a mutinous sense.
Note that as I understand it he only condemned the mutiny after it was over. It's possible he was hedging his bets, but I doubt it. More likely he kept himself at Putin's disposal and spoke only when he was told to speak.
Will Prigozhin take a substantial number of troops or quantity of weapons with him to Belarus? I'm guessing he won't and that he's out of the Russian-Ukraine war now. Where this leaves Wagner in all the other places where it has a presence (including Syria and Africa) is another question.
There are probably quite a few people in Russia who think both sides of this were directed by the same office in the FSB.
I doubt they're right. But unity of FSB command is an extremely important factor. When it cracks, Russia cracks. And it's not cracking.
If you look deep behind the language of Russian "statehood" and protecting it from being undermined, challenged, eroded, destroyed, forced to surrender, guess which organisation you can see? Yes that's right, the FSB, which has existed under different names for a very long time.
Also they are likely to have useless candidates.
That a diminishing number of people enjoy such benefits, is a huge problem for the country and its leaders.
If your putting your faith in that basket of voters - the future pensioner won’t have the kind of the wealth that some current pensioners do. Us poor millennials will be paying off mortgages into our 80s
1. No great Army or National Guard effort to stop Wagner. I expect Putin is taking careful note of who did or did not act.
2. Not much sign of support for Prigozhin. Tied to above, support for Putin may be weak but that doesn't mean just anyone can take over.
3. Lukashenko acting as intermediary. Is he one of the few Putin can trust as Lukashenko's position is so dependent on Putin's own?
One thing is clear though, Putin is weaker than ever.
I wonder if we’re beginning to forget about the ‘ordinary’ Wagner soldier? Must have a chain of command of some sort. How long before the NCO’s and other ranks get fed up. Especially if if there’s an interruption in pay?
What will they do? Sit down where they are and threaten their commanders? Or head off to other places where soldiers are paid in gold?
"Years of hard studying" - my a*sehole! Why do they go around claiming to be "doctors" when they haven't got doctorates in sheeyit? "Doctor" of course isn't a protected term, but who else acts that way? A few dentists, a very few vets, and that's it. But all medics.
You might also look at how the concept of "layperson" works for the members of this particular and very well financially insured priesthood.
You and I both know the Conservatives were much more competitive with younger voters in 1997 than they are now. In any case, the Opinium 40-27 needs two caveats - first, Reform polls 16% among the same age group and indeed half the Reform support in last night's Opinium comes from over 65s.
Second, 40-27 would indeed still be a Conservative lead but compared to the 64-17 lead held by the Conservatives in 2019 would represent a 17% swing in that critical age group from Conservative to Labour and I'll willingly concede IF Opinium is accurate AND you add all the Reform votes to the Conservatives (two buckets of salt, please) the swing would be a more modest 9%.
OTOH, Techne (fieldwork at the same time) has Labour leading the over 65s by 40-38 - I've not seen the Omnisis data tables.
Throwing useless statistics like "a million more civil servants" without a scintilla of context isn't helpful. One could ask why the Conservatives (apparently once a party which believed in a smaller state) have allowed the numbers to rise so dramatically.
There are so many questions about the Conservatives' failures after 13 years of leading the Government, it really is hard to know where to start. Probably the best place is "And why should we allow you failures to have another five years of inertia, incompetence and indolence?".
There are no poor doctor's, even at the very start they are above median wage and soon miles above it with double , treble or even more.