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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » By-election second places are no longer good enough for UKI

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    corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    RodCrosby said:

    corporeal said:

    RodCrosby said:

    @kle4

    History shows that the electoral system is invariable only changed when one of the big two parties fears being locked out, or supplanted by another.

    That's why most European countries changed to PR in the early 1900s. Fear of mass enfranchisement and eternal socialism as a result.

    We nearly changed also, but the Liberals fumbled the ball... and lost.

    We nearly changed a couple of times. The closest I think was in the late 20s under Macdonald.
    AV passed the Commons in 1931, but the government fell later that year.

    The closest was the AV-STV combo passed five times by the Commons in 1917, but blocked by the Lords. It fell by one vote (IIRC) in the end...
    Ah yes, I knew it was down to a National Government falling got the wrong one.

    Iirc it not only fell by one vote, but it wasn't over whether to keep FPTP. It was the version to replace it with that was the contentious point.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    Being a fan of early 80s music, it's always surprising when you discover a really good track you didn't know about, such as this one — "She's A Magazine" by New Musik, from 1980:

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=oRuGWMk1sZ4

    "No Heart" by Robert Marlow - produced by Vince Clarke of Depeche Mode/Yazoo/Erasure fame.

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=tJ8Nx7u-zso
    Thanks Sunil!
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    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Being a fan of early 80s music, it's always surprising when you discover a really good track you didn't know about, such as this one — "She's A Magazine" by New Musik, from 1980:

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=oRuGWMk1sZ4

    "No Heart" by Robert Marlow - produced by Vince Clarke of Depeche Mode/Yazoo/Erasure fame.

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=tJ8Nx7u-zso
    Thanks Sunil!
    A couple more obscure Vince productions:

    "TV Glare" by Absolute:
    www.youtube.com/watch?v=NytlRoMPPY0

    "Just Me Alone" by Twilight:
    www.youtube.com/watch?v=gS9nzOwM-Yk
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    Also:

    "One Day" by Vince Clarke & Paul Quinn:

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=4O8r4vGdIKk
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2014
    No Heart by Robert Marlow reminds me a bit of Blancmange tracks like Feel Me:

    http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=NZgBK6h5mxk&amp

    Blancmange's masterpiece, IMO, is Blind Vision, although they're better known for Living On The Ceiling.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,997
    Alison Wolf talked alot of sense on that Question Time.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2014
    This is Blind Version by Blancmange, with an extremely weird video even by early 80s' standards:

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=0YAvhMTgE8o
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    RodCrosby said:

    UKIP should bang on more about PR.

    Then they will just look like all of the other tedious PR bores. Wanting to change a system simply because another one suits them more.

    The only party which emerges with any credit on electoral systems is the Conservatives. Prepared to argue for the best system with the strongest constituency link despite it not working in their favour.

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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    GeoffM said:

    RodCrosby said:

    UKIP should bang on more about PR.

    Then they will just look like all of the other tedious PR bores. Wanting to change a system simply because another one suits them more.

    The only party which emerges with any credit on electoral systems is the Conservatives. Prepared to argue for the best system with the strongest constituency link despite it not working in their favour.

    The Tories don't seem to get much credit in Scotland for being in favour of the Union despite it preventing them having a majority at Westminster.
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    GeoffM said:

    RodCrosby said:

    UKIP should bang on more about PR.

    Then they will just look like all of the other tedious PR bores. Wanting to change a system simply because another one suits them more.

    The only party which emerges with any credit on electoral systems is the Conservatives. Prepared to argue for the best system with the strongest constituency link despite it not working in their favour.

    If they had their way you'd have the weakest constituency link of any system proposed, because they want to shuffle the constituency boundaries around every five years to keep the population variation low. This will mean that not only do voters have very little idea which constituency they're in, as it bears no ressemblance to any normal geographic boundary and changes all the time, but in many cases they won't be able to vote on whether or not their MP served them well, because they have been moved to a different seat from the one the MP who did or didn't help them is now standing in.
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    Ninoinoz said:




    Until 1918, Labour was essentially a sister party of the Liberals. Many of Labour's early gains were achieved by the Liberals standing aside. Various other candidates stood as Lib-Lab.

    The most likely in Wythenshawe seems to be that they'll do better than the poll rating but not come close to winning, which should have a broadly neutral effect. The trouble with winning the Euros, if they do, is that people will say it's because it was the Euros. Like Mike I think they probably do need to win a by-election, or at least come very close.
    There are a whole host of local council elections on the same day as the Euros.

    People won't be solely talking about the Euro results.
    Good point, especially as the council elections come first - the Euros only get announced on the Sunday (so that the whole continent declares together - some countries don't vote till later in the week).
    Lucky break for the British to snag the Iowa-like "first to vote in the union" slot. They should be pushing for party primaries on the same principles to make the most of it.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    GeoffM said:

    RodCrosby said:

    UKIP should bang on more about PR.

    Then they will just look like all of the other tedious PR bores. Wanting to change a system simply because another one suits them more.

    The only party which emerges with any credit on electoral systems is the Conservatives. Prepared to argue for the best system with the strongest constituency link despite it not working in their favour.

    Really ? I thought they want the boundary changed all the tine to suit some stupid arithmetical formula !
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    RodCrosby said:

    UKIP should bang on more about PR.

    It's possible LD+UKIP could get >30% next time, but come away with what? 5% of the seats combined...

    Do you hear the Lib Dems clamouring for PR lately ?
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