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Snap YouGov poll has just 19%saying it’s wrong for BJ to resign – politicalbetting.com
Snap YouGov poll has just 19%saying it’s wrong for BJ to resign – politicalbetting.com
In all of this I just wonder whether Johnson and his close advisors have overestimated the support they think their man has amongst voters. Sure non-Tory voters have a negative view but it is the split amongst Tory voters that is surprising.
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Let me give you one example. When you set up a field, you will likely do it with water injection. That is, you will pump water into the reservoir as it depletes to maintain pressure.
When you abandon a field, you will remove all those pumps and concrete up the holes. Putting all that back would be incredibly expensive.
If you are doing remediation work on a field, you are not going to remove those pumps, and you are not going to concrete up those holes.
Pedantic? Moi?
"So 19% think it was wrong which if you add to the Don't Knows that's more than enough for a majority."
So we end up importing our oil and gas from those places which have far poorer environmental, safety and social records and the process of transportation creates a bigger carbon footprint than if we had carried on with the North Sea. It is simply exporting and expanding our pollution.
Boris Johnson is like one of those coppers up before an investigation who takes early retirement than be sacked.
Wake me up in 2032.
https://twitter.com/bestforbritain/status/1669329254973157377?s=46&t=16Vx1hkPdKeRguANzrOtZQ
The GP gatekeeper system needs radical reform
So the Tory whips allowing Tory MPs to campaign in the by elections next week rather than have to vote on the report is sensible from a party perspective.
I also think Boris may have blundered. Remember Ashcroft's poll had him holding Uxbridge so even had he fought the post report by election likely necessitated by a recall petition he might have won it.
Now I doubt CCHQ will let him onto the party's approved parliamentary candidates list again, unless Mogg, Patel or Braverman become party leader in Opposition
I am glad it turned out ok for you.
Stop consuming it, producers will find they can't sell the stuff, so production will drop.
Continue consuming it, producers will ramp up consumption to match the demand.
The only way to affect production, globally, is to reduce demand. Anything else is just fiddling while the planet burns.
With on-shore fields, you often see them mothballed or abandoned if oil prices are low. Those nodding donkeys pulling oil to the surface... well, maybe they're turned off if they require maintenance. Or maybe the RoI from using electricity to operate them is more than it's worth. Sand then when oil is expensive again, someone will come along, do the remediation work, and get them moving again.
With off-shore, you are asking "do I keep pumping here, for minimal returns, with a high water cut, when I could use all this equipment on another field?" And if you abandon the field, it's not coming back. (Except in exceptional circumstances.)
BUT DON'T GET ME STARTED ON THE NHS.
Ahem.
Apart from to say @eek I did see your comment about me wanting the funding model of the NHS to change which is not my position at all. I believe it is structurally and institutionally flawed but I am not going to post any more on the subject. Today.
How young voters in Johnson's constituency plan to vote according to *that poll*:
18-24
Con: 48%
Lab: 36%
25-34
Con: 44%
Lab: 41%
If you believe this, I have a bridge over the Irish Sea to sell you.
YouGov national polls give Labour a ~50 pt lead in these groups.
Young respondents also enormously upweighted. Just 52 18-24 year olds responded and they're upweighted nearly 3 times, to 141!
A crime against survey methodology.
https://twitter.com/Beyond_Topline/status/1666022809208758273
Both main parties now back Brexit, even the LDs only back EEA not full rejoin EU for now. Before the EU referendum all main parties ie Conservatives, Labour and LDs backed staying in the EU with only UKIP backing leaving it.
Longer term even if we do rejoin the EEA but still not the EU Brexiteers have still won relative to where we were in 2015
He felt this was a hangover of the Olde Days -MRIs, X-rays and many other tests are far cheaper to do than they used to be.
He saw big value in catching things early - he repeatedly seen stuff on the lines of
1) patient told x months get tests and see consultant
2) went private, came to him, scans done beforehand
3) found conditions practically jumping out of the results, that if they had waited x months would have escalated to expensive to treat, loss of quality of life etc
Consumption exists because the product is needed, not because production exists. Production exists to meet demand.
Find alternatives to the product and consumption will fall, and production will fall to meet the reduced demand.
OPEC raise or lower production all the time based on supply and demand. It is not the other way around.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/15/navy-two-aircraft-carriers-soon-have-no-way-to-refuel-them/ (£££)
Royal Fleet Auxiliary ships are either in dock for repair or still under construction.
RAF retires the C-130 Hercules – we’re now dependent on the abysmal A400M Atlas
New plane was described in the House of Lords as ‘Euro-w------ makework project’
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/14/c-130-hercules-raf-change-to-a400m/ (£££)
AIUI lying to parliament is not illegal as such, so penalties are not going to be custodial sentences...
It was different in many ways, as were those that did the voting
In the polls those saying Boris was right to resign was 62%
But those saying he was wrong was 19%
N-n-n-19%
N-n-n-19%
There are only a handful left who will ride and die for him.
If we stop burning oil, that deals with the CO2 issue.
Making oil into acrylic (for instance) can be a zero carbon operation.
Madoff investors didn’t angrily insist everyone *else* agree that 1+1=3, and their actions didn’t impact an entire country.
People naturally sympathetic to him are unlikely to say he is “wrong” about anything.
Also, the inverse.
Surprised d/k is so low, tbh.
Hillingdon council also stayed Tory controlled even last year and the ULEZ is unpopular there
We reduce consumption. OPEC find they have no customers. OPEC reduce production.
Your alternative is as follows.
We reduce production. OPEC find they have extra customers. OPEC increase production.
The only way to reduce production is to reduce consumption. Everything else is just fiddling while the world burns.
Deal with demand, not supply. The latter will follow the former.
And in terms of energy efficiency for extraction the North Sea is far better than practially every other place on earth. Go look at how they do things in Mexico or Indonesia or Vietnam. All places, incidently, that UK companies are moving investment and exp[loration money to away from the UK.
We need to reduce consumption. That is the only element we can control. When consumption is gone, then OPEC will no longer be producing to meet it. If we fail to do that, they always will.
Here though Starmer is a white atheist, Davey a white Anglican.
Only Rishi is a British Asian Hindu of the 3 main party leaders
As he inconsistently remembers he was democratically elected, and he seems to still want to be involved intimately in politics.
As such, he should have let the process run through and see if his electorate are as outraged as he is. What a way to stick it to the Committee if he succeeded.
But if we produce less, then OPEC will produce more, and overall production will be flat.
There is a direction of causation. OPEC raise or lower production based on demand, not the environment, and they have enough capacity to replace anything we stop producing.
But we aren't consuming less in the first scenario because production was reduced, production was reduced because we were consuming less.
So if you want to help the environment, the only solution is to reduce consumption. Nothing else counts.
It's a good thing some of our kit gets use in Ukraine, as we otherwise appear unable to do pretty much anything.
And if they don't lance the Boris boil, they'll suffer electorally anyway.
Inventing reasons to cling on to the FLSOJ is one of your more futile exercises.
I guess we know which side of the civil war he is batting for.
https://oci.carnegieendowment.org/#analysis
Saudi oil, for example, is less damaging.
Had remaining required joining the Euro, I would have voted Leave
However the same can not be said for the economy, balance of trade, human rights, women's rights in the particular and the funding of terrorism.
And of course Saudi Arabia aren't the only member of OPEC.
For a plethora of reasons, not just the environment, it'd be good to have fewer imports from Saudi Arabia.
Telegraph sunk cost fallacy in operation. Alongside pitiful nostalgia.
On top of that their environmental controls are pretty much zero.
And that is all before you start having to transport it around the world.
Neither, I suspect are those delightful folk meandering along in the middle of the road from time to time holding up the traffic.
Because as people are trying to tell you, reducing production, holding consumption equal will either force people to find substitutes (eg imports in this case) or increase the price of that product or service.
I know it's a messy, disappointing world but that is how it all works.
Note to add: I see @rcs1000 has pointed this out also it's not just me the horrible right-winger (although @rcs1000 might also be a horrible right-winger).
We can control what we consume, and if we consume less the OPEC will reduce production to compensate.
We can control what we produce, but if we produce less then OPEC will increase production to compensate.
I'm an atheist, and not an alcoholic, but the AA's serenity prayer comes to mind here: God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, courage to change the things I can, and the wisdom to know the difference
The collapse of the LDs post 2015 means you usually need over 40% for a majority now, even in current polls the LDs are on about half their May 2010 level. While the SNP and UKIP taking Labour votes in 2015 helped Cameron get a small majority even under 40% and with the LDs collapse
Until then they will stay in equilibrium and this despite the shenanigans of OPEC which is the least market-friendly organisation on the planet but they hold many of the cards.
https://twitter.com/e_casalicchio/status/1669351423325409280?s=46
Not that actual carbon emissions would have any bearing on the enthusiasm of certain people to destroy the UK industry.