Applicants seeking to join RAF described as 'useless white male pilots' in bid to hit 'impossible' diversity targets
Leaked emails show the pressure apparently being applied to filter out white male recruits and fast-track women and ethnic minorities. It can also be revealed 31 white men are to receive £5,000 each to compensate them for being unfairly disadvantaged by the approach.
BREAKING: Boris Johnson’s spokesperson says all of the former PM’s WhatsApps and notebooks requested by Covid Inquiry have been handed to Cabinet Office in full.
Now up to Cabinet Office to hand them over to Inquiry or not. Johnson urges them to do so. Deadline 4pm tomorrow.
From a political betting view point, Primeminister Wallace or Mourdant might be close now.
Sunak might be toast. He is already in a very weak position. With Tories on 28% and slaughtered in the locals - Sunak’s WhatsAppGate could be about to finish him. The second Tory PM this parliament brought down by covid.
A worry for Labour as they clearly have Sunak beaten, sub 200 Tory seats even. But PM Penny might trump Labour appeals for a fresh change.
Penny will come across as more centre ground to voters than the increasingly right wing Starmer front bench.
The enquiry is taking evidence over the next 3 years and then has to compile the report which may be available in 2007 or 2008
All the main players including Johnson, Sunak, Sturgeon, Drakeford and Foster will be long gone
Penny will only win the leadership after the next GE in October 24 as Wallace wants the NATO position
No Big G, you are missing something here. Whatever Sunak is going to such lengths to hide is going to become public knowledge soon.
Anyone breaching the confidentiality of a judge led public enquiry is going to be in serious trouble
You mean a civil service leak?
After this afternoons developments, is it not clearly obvious Boris and his supporters know what is in the WhatsApp’s Sunak is trying to suppress?
The cabinet office have until tomorrow evening to submit the information
Maybe best to see what happens over the next 24 hours
BREAKING: Boris Johnson’s spokesperson says all of the former PM’s WhatsApps and notebooks requested by Covid Inquiry have been handed to Cabinet Office in full.
Now up to Cabinet Office to hand them over to Inquiry or not. Johnson urges them to do so. Deadline 4pm tomorrow.
From a political betting view point, Primeminister Wallace or Mourdant might be close now.
Sunak might be toast. He is already in a very weak position. With Tories on 28% and slaughtered in the locals - Sunak’s WhatsAppGate could be about to finish him. The second Tory PM this parliament brought down by covid.
A worry for Labour as they clearly have Sunak beaten, sub 200 Tory seats even. But PM Penny might trump Labour appeals for a fresh change.
Penny will come across as more centre ground to voters than the increasingly right wing Starmer front bench.
Sunak actually polls better than his party, especially with under 50s and urban professionals.
Mordaunt is too woke for the party membership as leader.
I doubt the whatsapp messages will make the slightest difference to Sunak's position, indeed Tory and RefUK voters think we locked down too early and too long if anything
You do make me laugh with your polling psephology. 🙂
“Sunak actually polls better than his party”. Saying what? Flesh eating bugs are currently polling better than the Tory party. What Sunak is currently polling and clearly cannot now improve on, is bloodbath election. Any scandal which sends his ratings to Boris and Corbyn levels and knocks 4% off the current Tory polling is obviously going to finish him.
BREAKING: Boris Johnson’s spokesperson says all of the former PM’s WhatsApps and notebooks requested by Covid Inquiry have been handed to Cabinet Office in full.
Now up to Cabinet Office to hand them over to Inquiry or not. Johnson urges them to do so. Deadline 4pm tomorrow.
From a political betting view point, Primeminister Wallace or Mourdant might be close now.
Sunak might be toast. He is already in a very weak position. With Tories on 28% and slaughtered in the locals - Sunak’s WhatsAppGate could be about to finish him. The second Tory PM this parliament brought down by covid.
A worry for Labour as they clearly have Sunak beaten, sub 200 Tory seats even. But PM Penny might trump Labour appeals for a fresh change.
Penny will come across as more centre ground to voters than the increasingly right wing Starmer front bench.
The enquiry is taking evidence over the next 3 years and then has to compile the report which may be available in 2007 or 2008
All the main players including Johnson, Sunak, Sturgeon, Drakeford and Foster will be long gone
Penny will only win the leadership after the next GE in October 24 as Wallace wants the NATO position
No Big G, you are missing something here. Whatever Sunak is going to such lengths to hide is going to become public knowledge soon.
Anyone breaching the confidentiality of a judge led public enquiry is going to be in serious trouble
But there will be public hearings well before the final report is published. If something sufficiently bad emerges during them, all sorts of people may find themselves in an untenable position pretty quickly.
BREAKING: Boris Johnson’s spokesperson says all of the former PM’s WhatsApps and notebooks requested by Covid Inquiry have been handed to Cabinet Office in full.
Now up to Cabinet Office to hand them over to Inquiry or not. Johnson urges them to do so. Deadline 4pm tomorrow.
From a political betting view point, Primeminister Wallace or Mourdant might be close now.
Sunak might be toast. He is already in a very weak position. With Tories on 28% and slaughtered in the locals - Sunak’s WhatsAppGate could be about to finish him. The second Tory PM this parliament brought down by covid.
A worry for Labour as they clearly have Sunak beaten, sub 200 Tory seats even. But PM Penny might trump Labour appeals for a fresh change.
Penny will come across as more centre ground to voters than the increasingly right wing Starmer front bench.
The enquiry is taking evidence over the next 3 years and then has to compile the report which may be available in 2007 or 2008
All the main players including Johnson, Sunak, Sturgeon, Drakeford and Foster will be long gone
Penny will only win the leadership after the next GE in October 24 as Wallace wants the NATO position
No Big G, you are missing something here. Whatever Sunak is going to such lengths to hide is going to become public knowledge soon.
Anyone breaching the confidentiality of a judge led public enquiry is going to be in serious trouble
BREAKING: Boris Johnson’s spokesperson says all of the former PM’s WhatsApps and notebooks requested by Covid Inquiry have been handed to Cabinet Office in full.
Now up to Cabinet Office to hand them over to Inquiry or not. Johnson urges them to do so. Deadline 4pm tomorrow.
From a political betting view point, Primeminister Wallace or Mourdant might be close now.
Sunak might be toast. He is already in a very weak position. With Tories on 28% and slaughtered in the locals - Sunak’s WhatsAppGate could be about to finish him. The second Tory PM this parliament brought down by covid.
A worry for Labour as they clearly have Sunak beaten, sub 200 Tory seats even. But PM Penny might trump Labour appeals for a fresh change.
Penny will come across as more centre ground to voters than the increasingly right wing Starmer front bench.
Sunak actually polls better than his party, especially with under 50s and urban professionals.
Mordaunt is too woke for the party membership as leader.
I doubt the whatsapp messages will make the slightest difference to Sunak's position, indeed Tory and RefUK voters think we locked down too early and too long if anything
indeed I am more likely to vote for him if he was revealed to be more anti-lockdown.
Given the role he played in EOTHO I think it is safe to assume he was. He may have made some less than tactful comments about setting off the economic damage with a limited number of deaths though.
Sunak's attitude isn't news...
A Sunday Times investigation found that the new restrictions were being supported by Hancock, Gove, and Johnson’s chief adviser, Dominic Cummings. But Sunak was vehemently opposed, fearing mass redundancies.14 Sunak’s opposition led to four people being invited to address Johnson and him on 20 September, of whom three also opposed a lockdown: Sunetra Gupta and Carl Heneghan, professors at Oxford University, and Anders Tegnell, architect of Sweden’s controversial policy of avoiding lockdowns.
BREAKING: Boris Johnson’s spokesperson says all of the former PM’s WhatsApps and notebooks requested by Covid Inquiry have been handed to Cabinet Office in full.
Now up to Cabinet Office to hand them over to Inquiry or not. Johnson urges them to do so. Deadline 4pm tomorrow.
From a political betting view point, Primeminister Wallace or Mourdant might be close now.
Sunak might be toast. He is already in a very weak position. With Tories on 28% and slaughtered in the locals - Sunak’s WhatsAppGate could be about to finish him. The second Tory PM this parliament brought down by covid.
A worry for Labour as they clearly have Sunak beaten, sub 200 Tory seats even. But PM Penny might trump Labour appeals for a fresh change.
Penny will come across as more centre ground to voters than the increasingly right wing Starmer front bench.
The enquiry is taking evidence over the next 3 years and then has to compile the report which may be available in 2007 or 2008
All the main players including Johnson, Sunak, Sturgeon, Drakeford and Foster will be long gone
Penny will only win the leadership after the next GE in October 24 as Wallace wants the NATO position
No Big G, you are missing something here. Whatever Sunak is going to such lengths to hide is going to become public knowledge soon.
Anyone breaching the confidentiality of a judge led public enquiry is going to be in serious trouble
But there will be public hearings well before the final report is published. If something sufficiently bad emerges during them, all sorts of people may find themselves in an untenable position pretty quickly.
I understand the vaccine programme will be the only part of the enquiry to be reported on before GE 24
If I am wrong I stand to be corrected but that was my understanding from the timetable released by the judge yesterday
BREAKING: Boris Johnson’s spokesperson says all of the former PM’s WhatsApps and notebooks requested by Covid Inquiry have been handed to Cabinet Office in full.
Now up to Cabinet Office to hand them over to Inquiry or not. Johnson urges them to do so. Deadline 4pm tomorrow.
From a political betting view point, Primeminister Wallace or Mourdant might be close now.
Sunak might be toast. He is already in a very weak position. With Tories on 28% and slaughtered in the locals - Sunak’s WhatsAppGate could be about to finish him. The second Tory PM this parliament brought down by covid.
A worry for Labour as they clearly have Sunak beaten, sub 200 Tory seats even. But PM Penny might trump Labour appeals for a fresh change.
Penny will come across as more centre ground to voters than the increasingly right wing Starmer front bench.
Sunak actually polls better than his party, especially with under 50s and urban professionals.
Mordaunt is too woke for the party membership as leader.
I doubt the whatsapp messages will make the slightest difference to Sunak's position, indeed Tory and RefUK voters think we locked down too early and too long if anything
You do make me laugh with your polling psephology. 🙂
“Sunak actually polls better than his party”. Saying what? Flesh eating bugs are currently polling better than the Tory party. What Sunak is currently polling and clearly cannot now improve on, is bloodbath election. Any scandal which sends his ratings to Boris and Corbyn levels and knocks 4% off the current Tory polling is obviously going to finish him.
Currently about 34% prefer Sunak as PM to Starmer, if he manages to raise the Tory voteshare from its current 25-30% to that 34% then he would at least ensure the Tories won more seats than from 1997-2005 under Major, Hague and Howard. It would be a clear defeat but should secure them around 200-250 seats rather than the 165 in their landslide defeat in 1997 and much better than the 0-50 seat annihilation they were heading for in the last days of Liz Truss' premiership
The number of unforced errors and own goals scored by Starmer is mounting up now, in my opinion - Sue Gray, Dale Vince, no new contracts in North Sea, no new money for NHS - if this was the frenzy of a general election campaign right now, Labour would be getting shredded in the media narrative.
Dale Vince? Who is Dale vince?
An unforced error shouldn't be judged by something Paul Dacre disagree with. For what it's worth I suspect his appointment of Sue Gray will turn out t be a very shrewd one. Someone said people form their views as birds build their nest; Over time and bit by bit and are hard to shift once they're formed. Sue Gray is considered a person of integrity which seems to build the sense that most people have of Starmer.
Black people were three times more likely to receive Covid fines in England and Wales
Exclusive: those in poorest areas were seven times more likely to be fined, says research into how police used emergency pandemic powers
Fines during the pandemic were three times more likely to be given to black people and seven times more likely to be issued in the poorest areas, research commissioned for Britain’s police chiefs has revealed.
The study covering England and Wales showed racial disparity for every single force. In one area, ethnic minorities were up to eight times more likely to be fined. It presents further evidence of ethnic disparity in the use of police powers. Most forces deny they are institutionally racist, as does the government.
The report was commissioned by the National Police Chiefs’ Council and conducted by academics at the University of Edinburgh. The NPPC did not publish the findings, to the surprise of those who produced it....
..The study looked at the period from 27 March 2020 to 31 May 2021, when 122,506 fines were issued. In England, ethnic minority people were on average more than twice as likely than white people to be fined, with the rate even higher for black people. .
The study said: “In England, the rate of FPNs per 10,000 people from an ethnic minority background was 46.1, compared to 19.9 for white individuals, reflecting an ethnic disparity rate of 2.3.
“The ethnic disparity rate in England was highest for people from a black ethnic background, who were 3.2 times more likely to be issued with an FPN.”
In Wales the ethnic disparity was 2.8 times for ethnic minorities, and virtually identical for black people.
The report’s co-author Prof Susan McVie said: “There was not a single force area that did not have a higher disparity rate for ethnic minority groups.”
If they were seven times more likely to be given in the poorest areas, the fact that black people were only three times more likely to be fined suggests that adjusting for social class, black people were probably no more fined than anyone else, I think - i.e. any racial disparity is simply a product of social disparity. Which may be a problem of poor people being less able to cheerfully work from home and take their exercise on their lawn.
I would really hope these are odds ratios from a mutivariable regression, not bivariable comparisons.
Otherwise, fairly nonsensical, as you say.
ETA: Aargh! They do seem to be simply dividing the number of people fined (or fines) by the number of people in a group. So while the numbers are indeed numbers, interpretation needs a hell of a lot of caution, preferably running from the room shouting "I want nothing to do with this until you get someone with stats knowledge on board" Report: https://blogs.ed.ac.uk/edinburghlawschool/wp-content/uploads/sites/8261/2023/03/NPCC-Report-March-2023-final-1.pdf
AETA: Shame, as this would actually be fascinating if confounders were taken into account.
It's fine to start with a bivariable comparison. It suggests the matter is worthy of further investigation. But, yes, at some point, we should try to account for confounding.
BREAKING: Boris Johnson’s spokesperson says all of the former PM’s WhatsApps and notebooks requested by Covid Inquiry have been handed to Cabinet Office in full.
Now up to Cabinet Office to hand them over to Inquiry or not. Johnson urges them to do so. Deadline 4pm tomorrow.
From a political betting view point, Primeminister Wallace or Mourdant might be close now.
Sunak might be toast. He is already in a very weak position. With Tories on 28% and slaughtered in the locals - Sunak’s WhatsAppGate could be about to finish him. The second Tory PM this parliament brought down by covid.
A worry for Labour as they clearly have Sunak beaten, sub 200 Tory seats even. But PM Penny might trump Labour appeals for a fresh change.
Penny will come across as more centre ground to voters than the increasingly right wing Starmer front bench.
Sunak actually polls better than his party, especially with under 50s and urban professionals.
Mordaunt is too woke for the party membership as leader.
I doubt the whatsapp messages will make the slightest difference to Sunak's position, indeed Tory and RefUK voters think we locked down too early and too long if anything
indeed I am more likely to vote for him if he was revealed to be more anti-lockdown.
Given the role he played in EOTHO I think it is safe to assume he was. He may have made some less than tactful comments about setting off the economic damage with a limited number of deaths though.
Sunak's attitude isn't news...
A Sunday Times investigation found that the new restrictions were being supported by Hancock, Gove, and Johnson’s chief adviser, Dominic Cummings. But Sunak was vehemently opposed, fearing mass redundancies.14 Sunak’s opposition led to four people being invited to address Johnson and him on 20 September, of whom three also opposed a lockdown: Sunetra Gupta and Carl Heneghan, professors at Oxford University, and Anders Tegnell, architect of Sweden’s controversial policy of avoiding lockdowns.
well sunak's gone up in my estimation then. Even if you disagree with his view on this , this is just arguing a position and a view - something we should surely encourage politicians to do? Do we all want them to be sheep?
BREAKING: Boris Johnson’s spokesperson says all of the former PM’s WhatsApps and notebooks requested by Covid Inquiry have been handed to Cabinet Office in full.
Now up to Cabinet Office to hand them over to Inquiry or not. Johnson urges them to do so. Deadline 4pm tomorrow.
From a political betting view point, Primeminister Wallace or Mourdant might be close now.
Sunak might be toast. He is already in a very weak position. With Tories on 28% and slaughtered in the locals - Sunak’s WhatsAppGate could be about to finish him. The second Tory PM this parliament brought down by covid.
A worry for Labour as they clearly have Sunak beaten, sub 200 Tory seats even. But PM Penny might trump Labour appeals for a fresh change.
Penny will come across as more centre ground to voters than the increasingly right wing Starmer front bench.
The enquiry is taking evidence over the next 3 years and then has to compile the report which may be available in 2007 or 2008
All the main players including Johnson, Sunak, Sturgeon, Drakeford and Foster will be long gone
Penny will only win the leadership after the next GE in October 24 as Wallace wants the NATO position
No Big G, you are missing something here. Whatever Sunak is going to such lengths to hide is going to become public knowledge soon.
Anyone breaching the confidentiality of a judge led public enquiry is going to be in serious trouble
But there will be public hearings well before the final report is published. If something sufficiently bad emerges during them, all sorts of people may find themselves in an untenable position pretty quickly.
I understand the vaccine programme will be the only part of the enquiry to be reported on before GE 24
If I am wrong I stand to be corrected but that was my understanding from the timetable released by the judge yesterday
Gorgeous evening here in East London - my favourite kind of weather, fine with a nice cool breeze. If you want heat, go and stand near somewhere hot.
On topic, the one thing any politician never wants is any perception they are not in control of events. It's much less a question of what Johnson did or didn't decide in those key days but to what extent he was truly in charge or in control. The slightest notion he wasn't in charge or in control would be deeply damaging to his political reputation.
It would invite the not unreasonable observation if he couldn't adequately manage this crisis, why would he do any better next time?
I recognise he was personally conflicted but that's not the point.
BREAKING: Boris Johnson’s spokesperson says all of the former PM’s WhatsApps and notebooks requested by Covid Inquiry have been handed to Cabinet Office in full.
Now up to Cabinet Office to hand them over to Inquiry or not. Johnson urges them to do so. Deadline 4pm tomorrow.
From a political betting view point, Primeminister Wallace or Mourdant might be close now.
Sunak might be toast. He is already in a very weak position. With Tories on 28% and slaughtered in the locals - Sunak’s WhatsAppGate could be about to finish him. The second Tory PM this parliament brought down by covid.
A worry for Labour as they clearly have Sunak beaten, sub 200 Tory seats even. But PM Penny might trump Labour appeals for a fresh change.
Penny will come across as more centre ground to voters than the increasingly right wing Starmer front bench.
Sunak actually polls better than his party, especially with under 50s and urban professionals.
Mordaunt is too woke for the party membership as leader.
I doubt the whatsapp messages will make the slightest difference to Sunak's position, indeed Tory and RefUK voters think we locked down too early and too long if anything
indeed I am more likely to vote for him if he was revealed to be more anti-lockdown.
Given the role he played in EOTHO I think it is safe to assume he was. He may have made some less than tactful comments about setting off the economic damage with a limited number of deaths though.
Sunak's attitude isn't news...
A Sunday Times investigation found that the new restrictions were being supported by Hancock, Gove, and Johnson’s chief adviser, Dominic Cummings. But Sunak was vehemently opposed, fearing mass redundancies.14 Sunak’s opposition led to four people being invited to address Johnson and him on 20 September, of whom three also opposed a lockdown: Sunetra Gupta and Carl Heneghan, professors at Oxford University, and Anders Tegnell, architect of Sweden’s controversial policy of avoiding lockdowns.
well sunak's gone up in my estimation then. Even if you disagree with his view on this , this is just arguing a position and a view - something we should surely encourage politicians to do? Do we all want them to be sheep?
If true that will likely boost Sunak as it might win back some anti lockdown voters from RefUK to the Tories
The number of unforced errors and own goals scored by Starmer is mounting up now, in my opinion - Sue Gray, Dale Vince, no new contracts in North Sea, no new money for NHS - if this was the frenzy of a general election campaign right now, Labour would be getting shredded in the media narrative.
Dale Vince? Who is Dale vince?
An unforced error shouldn't be judged by something Paul Dacre disagree with. For what it's worth I suspect his appointment of Sue Gray will turn out t be a very shrewd one. Someone said people form their views as birds build their nest; Over time and bit by bit and are hard to shift once they're formed. Sue Gray is considered a person of integrity which seems to build the sense that most people have of Starmer.
The fluff usually turns out to be just that
For someone so knowledgeable suggesting who Dale Vince is is unconvincing
BREAKING: Boris Johnson’s spokesperson says all of the former PM’s WhatsApps and notebooks requested by Covid Inquiry have been handed to Cabinet Office in full.
Now up to Cabinet Office to hand them over to Inquiry or not. Johnson urges them to do so. Deadline 4pm tomorrow.
From a political betting view point, Primeminister Wallace or Mourdant might be close now.
Sunak might be toast. He is already in a very weak position. With Tories on 28% and slaughtered in the locals - Sunak’s WhatsAppGate could be about to finish him. The second Tory PM this parliament brought down by covid.
A worry for Labour as they clearly have Sunak beaten, sub 200 Tory seats even. But PM Penny might trump Labour appeals for a fresh change.
Penny will come across as more centre ground to voters than the increasingly right wing Starmer front bench.
The enquiry is taking evidence over the next 3 years and then has to compile the report which may be available in 2007 or 2008
All the main players including Johnson, Sunak, Sturgeon, Drakeford and Foster will be long gone
Penny will only win the leadership after the next GE in October 24 as Wallace wants the NATO position
The report coming out in 2008 would be a gamechanger.
BREAKING: Boris Johnson’s spokesperson says all of the former PM’s WhatsApps and notebooks requested by Covid Inquiry have been handed to Cabinet Office in full.
Now up to Cabinet Office to hand them over to Inquiry or not. Johnson urges them to do so. Deadline 4pm tomorrow.
From a political betting view point, Primeminister Wallace or Mourdant might be close now.
Sunak might be toast. He is already in a very weak position. With Tories on 28% and slaughtered in the locals - Sunak’s WhatsAppGate could be about to finish him. The second Tory PM this parliament brought down by covid.
A worry for Labour as they clearly have Sunak beaten, sub 200 Tory seats even. But PM Penny might trump Labour appeals for a fresh change.
Penny will come across as more centre ground to voters than the increasingly right wing Starmer front bench.
The enquiry is taking evidence over the next 3 years and then has to compile the report which may be available in 2007 or 2008
All the main players including Johnson, Sunak, Sturgeon, Drakeford and Foster will be long gone
Penny will only win the leadership after the next GE in October 24 as Wallace wants the NATO position
The report coming out in 2008 would be a gamechanger.
Oh dear - tempus fugit for me - 2027 2028 and thanks
BREAKING: Boris Johnson’s spokesperson says all of the former PM’s WhatsApps and notebooks requested by Covid Inquiry have been handed to Cabinet Office in full.
Now up to Cabinet Office to hand them over to Inquiry or not. Johnson urges them to do so. Deadline 4pm tomorrow.
From a political betting view point, Primeminister Wallace or Mourdant might be close now.
Sunak might be toast. He is already in a very weak position. With Tories on 28% and slaughtered in the locals - Sunak’s WhatsAppGate could be about to finish him. The second Tory PM this parliament brought down by covid.
A worry for Labour as they clearly have Sunak beaten, sub 200 Tory seats even. But PM Penny might trump Labour appeals for a fresh change.
Penny will come across as more centre ground to voters than the increasingly right wing Starmer front bench.
The enquiry is taking evidence over the next 3 years and then has to compile the report which may be available in 2007 or 2008
All the main players including Johnson, Sunak, Sturgeon, Drakeford and Foster will be long gone
Penny will only win the leadership after the next GE in October 24 as Wallace wants the NATO position
No Big G, you are missing something here. Whatever Sunak is going to such lengths to hide is going to become public knowledge soon.
Anyone breaching the confidentiality of a judge led public enquiry is going to be in serious trouble
But there will be public hearings well before the final report is published. If something sufficiently bad emerges during them, all sorts of people may find themselves in an untenable position pretty quickly.
I understand the vaccine programme will be the only part of the enquiry to be reported on before GE 24
If I am wrong I stand to be corrected but that was my understanding from the timetable released by the judge yesterday
BREAKING: Boris Johnson’s spokesperson says all of the former PM’s WhatsApps and notebooks requested by Covid Inquiry have been handed to Cabinet Office in full.
Now up to Cabinet Office to hand them over to Inquiry or not. Johnson urges them to do so. Deadline 4pm tomorrow.
From a political betting view point, Primeminister Wallace or Mourdant might be close now.
Sunak might be toast. He is already in a very weak position. With Tories on 28% and slaughtered in the locals - Sunak’s WhatsAppGate could be about to finish him. The second Tory PM this parliament brought down by covid.
A worry for Labour as they clearly have Sunak beaten, sub 200 Tory seats even. But PM Penny might trump Labour appeals for a fresh change.
Penny will come across as more centre ground to voters than the increasingly right wing Starmer front bench.
Sunak actually polls better than his party, especially with under 50s and urban professionals.
Mordaunt is too woke for the party membership as leader.
I doubt the whatsapp messages will make the slightest difference to Sunak's position, indeed Tory and RefUK voters think we locked down too early and too long if anything
With the benefit of hindsight, which I fully accept was not available at the time and the risks were very difficult to calculate, I think it is far from clear that we should ever have locked down at all. Protected vulnerable groups, certainly. Ensured proper protection for medical and care staff beyond doubt. But closing schools, factories, pubs, restaurants, etc. I think it was a mistake now.
This is the familiar fallacy that you could somehow protect vulnerable groups while not doing enough to control the spread of the virus in the rest of the population.
A more serious suggestion is to consider how test & trace could have been done better.
BREAKING: Boris Johnson’s spokesperson says all of the former PM’s WhatsApps and notebooks requested by Covid Inquiry have been handed to Cabinet Office in full.
Now up to Cabinet Office to hand them over to Inquiry or not. Johnson urges them to do so. Deadline 4pm tomorrow.
From a political betting view point, Primeminister Wallace or Mourdant might be close now.
Sunak might be toast. He is already in a very weak position. With Tories on 28% and slaughtered in the locals - Sunak’s WhatsAppGate could be about to finish him. The second Tory PM this parliament brought down by covid.
A worry for Labour as they clearly have Sunak beaten, sub 200 Tory seats even. But PM Penny might trump Labour appeals for a fresh change.
Penny will come across as more centre ground to voters than the increasingly right wing Starmer front bench.
The enquiry is taking evidence over the next 3 years and then has to compile the report which may be available in 2007 or 2008
All the main players including Johnson, Sunak, Sturgeon, Drakeford and Foster will be long gone
Penny will only win the leadership after the next GE in October 24 as Wallace wants the NATO position
No Big G, you are missing something here. Whatever Sunak is going to such lengths to hide is going to become public knowledge soon.
Anyone breaching the confidentiality of a judge led public enquiry is going to be in serious trouble
But there will be public hearings well before the final report is published. If something sufficiently bad emerges during them, all sorts of people may find themselves in an untenable position pretty quickly.
I understand the vaccine programme will be the only part of the enquiry to be reported on before GE 24
If I am wrong I stand to be corrected but that was my understanding from the timetable released by the judge yesterday
BREAKING: Boris Johnson’s spokesperson says all of the former PM’s WhatsApps and notebooks requested by Covid Inquiry have been handed to Cabinet Office in full.
Now up to Cabinet Office to hand them over to Inquiry or not. Johnson urges them to do so. Deadline 4pm tomorrow.
From a political betting view point, Primeminister Wallace or Mourdant might be close now.
Sunak might be toast. He is already in a very weak position. With Tories on 28% and slaughtered in the locals - Sunak’s WhatsAppGate could be about to finish him. The second Tory PM this parliament brought down by covid.
A worry for Labour as they clearly have Sunak beaten, sub 200 Tory seats even. But PM Penny might trump Labour appeals for a fresh change.
Penny will come across as more centre ground to voters than the increasingly right wing Starmer front bench.
The enquiry is taking evidence over the next 3 years and then has to compile the report which may be available in 2007 or 2008
All the main players including Johnson, Sunak, Sturgeon, Drakeford and Foster will be long gone
Penny will only win the leadership after the next GE in October 24 as Wallace wants the NATO position
The report coming out in 2008 would be a gamechanger.
Oh dear - tempus fugit for me - 2027 2028 and thanks
BREAKING: Boris Johnson’s spokesperson says all of the former PM’s WhatsApps and notebooks requested by Covid Inquiry have been handed to Cabinet Office in full.
Now up to Cabinet Office to hand them over to Inquiry or not. Johnson urges them to do so. Deadline 4pm tomorrow.
From a political betting view point, Primeminister Wallace or Mourdant might be close now.
Sunak might be toast. He is already in a very weak position. With Tories on 28% and slaughtered in the locals - Sunak’s WhatsAppGate could be about to finish him. The second Tory PM this parliament brought down by covid.
A worry for Labour as they clearly have Sunak beaten, sub 200 Tory seats even. But PM Penny might trump Labour appeals for a fresh change.
Penny will come across as more centre ground to voters than the increasingly right wing Starmer front bench.
I can see it now:
A Russian bomber is shot down after veering into British airspace. Wallace or Mordaunt get elected unopposed by Tory MPs and immediately start leading in the polls as we prepare for direct engagement in Ukraine.
Wallace because he constantly tops con home polls with great ratings, so won’t be a controversial or divisive choice replacing a lame duck Sunak and uniting the factions and lame duck MPs who won’t be there soon.
Penny because she can bring a contrast to the dour Starmer. If Penny fights a gay campaign, as they called them in the sixties, built on hope, a brexiteers open mind on how to improve Brexit, sunny optimism on economy and recovery of household budgets, in contrast to Starmer’s gloomy, this is a mess needing sorting with belt tightening, Remainer fear of touching Brexit, a manifesto he has already half written so can’t switch to an optimistic hopeful message, Penny can easily defend that landslide majority.
@Best for Britain An eagle-eyed follower pointed out that Sunak’s glasses don’t reach his ears and now I cannot stop noticing it. (h/t @dc_litchfield) ~AA
BREAKING: Boris Johnson’s spokesperson says all of the former PM’s WhatsApps and notebooks requested by Covid Inquiry have been handed to Cabinet Office in full.
Now up to Cabinet Office to hand them over to Inquiry or not. Johnson urges them to do so. Deadline 4pm tomorrow.
From a political betting view point, Primeminister Wallace or Mourdant might be close now.
Sunak might be toast. He is already in a very weak position. With Tories on 28% and slaughtered in the locals - Sunak’s WhatsAppGate could be about to finish him. The second Tory PM this parliament brought down by covid.
A worry for Labour as they clearly have Sunak beaten, sub 200 Tory seats even. But PM Penny might trump Labour appeals for a fresh change.
Penny will come across as more centre ground to voters than the increasingly right wing Starmer front bench.
I can see it now:
A Russian bomber is shot down after veering into British airspace. Wallace or Mordaunt get elected unopposed by Tory MPs and immediately start leading in the polls as we prepare for direct engagement in Ukraine.
Wallace because he constantly tops con home polls with great ratings, so won’t be a controversial or divisive choice replacing a lame duck Sunak and uniting the factions and lame duck MPs who won’t be there soon.
Penny because she can bring a contrast to the dour Starmer. If Penny fights a gay campaign, as they called them in the sixties, built on hope, a brexiteers open mind on how to improve Brexit, sunny optimism on economy and recovery of household budgets, in contrast to Starmer’s gloomy, this is a mess needing sorting with belt tightening, Remainer fear of touching Brexit, a manifesto he has already half written so can’t switch to an optimistic hopeful message, Penny can easily defend that landslide majority.
Wallace wants NATO Chief which comes available this Autumn
The number of unforced errors and own goals scored by Starmer is mounting up now, in my opinion - Sue Gray, Dale Vince, no new contracts in North Sea, no new money for NHS - if this was the frenzy of a general election campaign right now, Labour would be getting shredded in the media narrative.
Dale Vince? Who is Dale vince?
An unforced error shouldn't be judged by something Paul Dacre disagree with. For what it's worth I suspect his appointment of Sue Gray will turn out t be a very shrewd one. Someone said people form their views as birds build their nest; Over time and bit by bit and are hard to shift once they're formed. Sue Gray is considered a person of integrity which seems to build the sense that most people have of Starmer.
The fluff usually turns out to be just that
Dale Vince made his money from green energy provision, tax paid in the UK. He is fine, although he has a silly name and personally speaking I wouldn't give a bean to Just Stop Oil.
And yet the usual suspects in the media and on here were comfortable with Lebedev cash.
Sorry @dixiedean but I think this means Everton are fucked, even more so than if you were relegated.
The Treasury’s sanctions police have been reviewing the finances of the Everton Football Club owner, Farhad Moshiri, the Guardian understands.
Moshiri appears to have become a person of interest to the Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation (OFSI) because of his links to Alisher Usmanov, the Russian-Uzbek billionaire who was sanctioned by the UK, the EU and the US after last year’s invasion of Ukraine.
Usmanov has also been barred from entering the UK since September 2021 after his presence was “not deemed conducive to the public good”.
The apparent interest in Moshiri coincides with months of reporting by the Guardian, which has raised questions about the influence Usmanov has exerted over Moshiri and the Premier League club, including how the Russian tycoon came to attend job interviews with a series of prospective Everton managers before March 2022.
It also follows a Guardian report that revealed how the club’s auditor, BDO, stepped away from signing off the club’s accounts last year – a decision sources said was related to the ownership of the Premier League team.
The Guardian understands that BDO’s concerns led to OFSI being notified about Moshiri, who has hired an expert sanctions lawyer at Peters & Peters – one of the UK’s largest law firms – according to correspondence sent to the Guardian on Moshiri’s behalf.
The news of OFSI’s apparent interest in Moshiri’s finances has emerged as the football team narrowly avoided relegation from the Premier League and while Moshiri is attempting to find investment to bankroll the club and complete its new stadium.
It is understood that an investment offer on the table would result in Moshiri – who is estimated to have ploughed £750m into Everton – losing control of the club without being paid a penny, according to sources close to the negotiations.
Any lack of payment to Moshiri could raise questions about whether Everton is being treated in a similar manner to Chelsea FC when it was acquired from the sanctioned oligarch Roman Abramovich last year. Abramovich was prevented by the UK government from benefiting financially from the sale of the London club...
...However, the Guardian understands that Moshiri’s UK bank closed his account last year, seemingly because of his connections to Usmanov.
Moshiri declined to comment on OFSI’s apparent interest in his finances or the status of his UK bank account. The Treasury said that neither it nor OFSI commented on individual cases.
BREAKING: Boris Johnson’s spokesperson says all of the former PM’s WhatsApps and notebooks requested by Covid Inquiry have been handed to Cabinet Office in full.
Now up to Cabinet Office to hand them over to Inquiry or not. Johnson urges them to do so. Deadline 4pm tomorrow.
From a political betting view point, Primeminister Wallace or Mourdant might be close now.
Sunak might be toast. He is already in a very weak position. With Tories on 28% and slaughtered in the locals - Sunak’s WhatsAppGate could be about to finish him. The second Tory PM this parliament brought down by covid.
A worry for Labour as they clearly have Sunak beaten, sub 200 Tory seats even. But PM Penny might trump Labour appeals for a fresh change.
Penny will come across as more centre ground to voters than the increasingly right wing Starmer front bench.
Sunak actually polls better than his party, especially with under 50s and urban professionals.
Mordaunt is too woke for the party membership as leader.
I doubt the whatsapp messages will make the slightest difference to Sunak's position, indeed Tory and RefUK voters think we locked down too early and too long if anything
With the benefit of hindsight, which I fully accept was not available at the time and the risks were very difficult to calculate, I think it is far from clear that we should ever have locked down at all. Protected vulnerable groups, certainly. Ensured proper protection for medical and care staff beyond doubt. But closing schools, factories, pubs, restaurants, etc. I think it was a mistake now.
This is the familiar fallacy that you could somehow protect vulnerable groups while not doing enough to control the spread of the virus in the rest of the population.
A more serious suggestion is to consider how test & trace could have been done better.
And that's one of the things I really hope comes out of this inquiry: if we need to do something like t&t again, how would we do it cheaper and more effectively?
BREAKING: Boris Johnson’s spokesperson says all of the former PM’s WhatsApps and notebooks requested by Covid Inquiry have been handed to Cabinet Office in full.
Now up to Cabinet Office to hand them over to Inquiry or not. Johnson urges them to do so. Deadline 4pm tomorrow.
From a political betting view point, Primeminister Wallace or Mourdant might be close now.
Sunak might be toast. He is already in a very weak position. With Tories on 28% and slaughtered in the locals - Sunak’s WhatsAppGate could be about to finish him. The second Tory PM this parliament brought down by covid.
A worry for Labour as they clearly have Sunak beaten, sub 200 Tory seats even. But PM Penny might trump Labour appeals for a fresh change.
Penny will come across as more centre ground to voters than the increasingly right wing Starmer front bench.
I can see it now:
A Russian bomber is shot down after veering into British airspace. Wallace or Mordaunt get elected unopposed by Tory MPs and immediately start leading in the polls as we prepare for direct engagement in Ukraine.
Wallace because he constantly tops con home polls with great ratings, so won’t be a controversial or divisive choice replacing a lame duck Sunak and uniting the factions and lame duck MPs who won’t be there soon.
Penny because she can bring a contrast to the dour Starmer. If Penny fights a gay campaign, as they called them in the sixties, built on hope, a brexiteers open mind on how to improve Brexit, sunny optimism on economy and recovery of household budgets, in contrast to Starmer’s gloomy, this is a mess needing sorting with belt tightening, Remainer fear of touching Brexit, a manifesto he has already half written so can’t switch to an optimistic hopeful message, Penny can easily defend that landslide majority.
BREAKING: Boris Johnson’s spokesperson says all of the former PM’s WhatsApps and notebooks requested by Covid Inquiry have been handed to Cabinet Office in full.
Now up to Cabinet Office to hand them over to Inquiry or not. Johnson urges them to do so. Deadline 4pm tomorrow.
From a political betting view point, Primeminister Wallace or Mourdant might be close now.
Sunak might be toast. He is already in a very weak position. With Tories on 28% and slaughtered in the locals - Sunak’s WhatsAppGate could be about to finish him. The second Tory PM this parliament brought down by covid.
A worry for Labour as they clearly have Sunak beaten, sub 200 Tory seats even. But PM Penny might trump Labour appeals for a fresh change.
Penny will come across as more centre ground to voters than the increasingly right wing Starmer front bench.
Sunak actually polls better than his party, especially with under 50s and urban professionals.
Mordaunt is too woke for the party membership as leader.
I doubt the whatsapp messages will make the slightest difference to Sunak's position, indeed Tory and RefUK voters think we locked down too early and too long if anything
You do make me laugh with your polling psephology. 🙂
“Sunak actually polls better than his party”. Saying what? Flesh eating bugs are currently polling better than the Tory party. What Sunak is currently polling and clearly cannot now improve on, is bloodbath election. Any scandal which sends his ratings to Boris and Corbyn levels and knocks 4% off the current Tory polling is obviously going to finish him.
Currently about 34% prefer Sunak as PM to Starmer, if he manages to raise the Tory voteshare from its current 25-30% to that 34% then he would at least ensure the Tories won more seats than from 1997-2005 under Major, Hague and Howard. It would be a clear defeat but should secure them around 200-250 seats rather than the 165 in their landslide defeat in 1997 and much better than the 0-50 seat annihilation they were heading for in the last days of Liz Truss' premiership
You are talking “ifs” - the factual known psephology in front of us says bloodbath. Sunak leading the party electorally to a number of MPs its hard to come back to government from, and in his three government roles chief architect of the high tax, new taxes, sly taxes, money wasting, income shrinking, high debt and aspiration blocking awful reputation, that is hard to come back from.
BREAKING: Boris Johnson’s spokesperson says all of the former PM’s WhatsApps and notebooks requested by Covid Inquiry have been handed to Cabinet Office in full.
Now up to Cabinet Office to hand them over to Inquiry or not. Johnson urges them to do so. Deadline 4pm tomorrow.
From a political betting view point, Primeminister Wallace or Mourdant might be close now.
Sunak might be toast. He is already in a very weak position. With Tories on 28% and slaughtered in the locals - Sunak’s WhatsAppGate could be about to finish him. The second Tory PM this parliament brought down by covid.
A worry for Labour as they clearly have Sunak beaten, sub 200 Tory seats even. But PM Penny might trump Labour appeals for a fresh change.
Penny will come across as more centre ground to voters than the increasingly right wing Starmer front bench.
Sunak actually polls better than his party, especially with under 50s and urban professionals.
Mordaunt is too woke for the party membership as leader.
I doubt the whatsapp messages will make the slightest difference to Sunak's position, indeed Tory and RefUK voters think we locked down too early and too long if anything
With the benefit of hindsight, which I fully accept was not available at the time and the risks were very difficult to calculate, I think it is far from clear that we should ever have locked down at all. Protected vulnerable groups, certainly. Ensured proper protection for medical and care staff beyond doubt. But closing schools, factories, pubs, restaurants, etc. I think it was a mistake now.
This is the familiar fallacy that you could somehow protect vulnerable groups while not doing enough to control the spread of the virus in the rest of the population.
A more serious suggestion is to consider how test & trace could have been done better.
And that's one of the things I really hope comes out of this inquiry: if we need to do something like t&t again, how would we do it cheaper and more effectively?
Sorry @dixiedean but I think this means Everton are fucked, even more so than if you were relegated.
The Treasury’s sanctions police have been reviewing the finances of the Everton Football Club owner, Farhad Moshiri, the Guardian understands.
Moshiri appears to have become a person of interest to the Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation (OFSI) because of his links to Alisher Usmanov, the Russian-Uzbek billionaire who was sanctioned by the UK, the EU and the US after last year’s invasion of Ukraine.
Usmanov has also been barred from entering the UK since September 2021 after his presence was “not deemed conducive to the public good”.
The apparent interest in Moshiri coincides with months of reporting by the Guardian, which has raised questions about the influence Usmanov has exerted over Moshiri and the Premier League club, including how the Russian tycoon came to attend job interviews with a series of prospective Everton managers before March 2022.
It also follows a Guardian report that revealed how the club’s auditor, BDO, stepped away from signing off the club’s accounts last year – a decision sources said was related to the ownership of the Premier League team.
The Guardian understands that BDO’s concerns led to OFSI being notified about Moshiri, who has hired an expert sanctions lawyer at Peters & Peters – one of the UK’s largest law firms – according to correspondence sent to the Guardian on Moshiri’s behalf.
The news of OFSI’s apparent interest in Moshiri’s finances has emerged as the football team narrowly avoided relegation from the Premier League and while Moshiri is attempting to find investment to bankroll the club and complete its new stadium.
It is understood that an investment offer on the table would result in Moshiri – who is estimated to have ploughed £750m into Everton – losing control of the club without being paid a penny, according to sources close to the negotiations.
Any lack of payment to Moshiri could raise questions about whether Everton is being treated in a similar manner to Chelsea FC when it was acquired from the sanctioned oligarch Roman Abramovich last year. Abramovich was prevented by the UK government from benefiting financially from the sale of the London club...
...However, the Guardian understands that Moshiri’s UK bank closed his account last year, seemingly because of his connections to Usmanov.
Moshiri declined to comment on OFSI’s apparent interest in his finances or the status of his UK bank account. The Treasury said that neither it nor OFSI commented on individual cases.
BREAKING: Boris Johnson’s spokesperson says all of the former PM’s WhatsApps and notebooks requested by Covid Inquiry have been handed to Cabinet Office in full.
Now up to Cabinet Office to hand them over to Inquiry or not. Johnson urges them to do so. Deadline 4pm tomorrow.
From a political betting view point, Primeminister Wallace or Mourdant might be close now.
Sunak might be toast. He is already in a very weak position. With Tories on 28% and slaughtered in the locals - Sunak’s WhatsAppGate could be about to finish him. The second Tory PM this parliament brought down by covid.
A worry for Labour as they clearly have Sunak beaten, sub 200 Tory seats even. But PM Penny might trump Labour appeals for a fresh change.
Penny will come across as more centre ground to voters than the increasingly right wing Starmer front bench.
Sunak actually polls better than his party, especially with under 50s and urban professionals.
Mordaunt is too woke for the party membership as leader.
I doubt the whatsapp messages will make the slightest difference to Sunak's position, indeed Tory and RefUK voters think we locked down too early and too long if anything
You do make me laugh with your polling psephology. 🙂
“Sunak actually polls better than his party”. Saying what? Flesh eating bugs are currently polling better than the Tory party. What Sunak is currently polling and clearly cannot now improve on, is bloodbath election. Any scandal which sends his ratings to Boris and Corbyn levels and knocks 4% off the current Tory polling is obviously going to finish him.
Currently about 34% prefer Sunak as PM to Starmer, if he manages to raise the Tory voteshare from its current 25-30% to that 34% then he would at least ensure the Tories won more seats than from 1997-2005 under Major, Hague and Howard. It would be a clear defeat but should secure them around 200-250 seats rather than the 165 in their landslide defeat in 1997 and much better than the 0-50 seat annihilation they were heading for in the last days of Liz Truss' premiership
You are talking “ifs” - the factual known psephology in front of us says bloodbath. Sunak leading the party electorally to a number of MPs its hard to come back to government from, and in his three government roles chief architect of the high tax, new taxes, sly taxes, money wasting, income shrinking, high debt and aspiration blocking awful reputation, that is hard to come back from.
1832, 1906, 1945 and 1997 and 2001 are the worst Tory defeats in history and arguably all were bloodbaths. In all those 5 general elections the Tories got less than 200 seats. (BigG and JackW remember them well, the exit poll in 1832 was a shocker, how could the Iron Duke lose after his victory at Waterloo!)
If Sunak got the Tories close to 250 seats he would have done about the same as Brown did in 2010 and Heath did in 1966 and of course within a year Ed Miliband was leading the polls as Leader of the Opposition and in 1970 Heath won a shock election win against Wilson.
Sorry @dixiedean but I think this means Everton are fucked, even more so than if you were relegated.
The Treasury’s sanctions police have been reviewing the finances of the Everton Football Club owner, Farhad Moshiri, the Guardian understands.
Moshiri appears to have become a person of interest to the Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation (OFSI) because of his links to Alisher Usmanov, the Russian-Uzbek billionaire who was sanctioned by the UK, the EU and the US after last year’s invasion of Ukraine.
Usmanov has also been barred from entering the UK since September 2021 after his presence was “not deemed conducive to the public good”.
The apparent interest in Moshiri coincides with months of reporting by the Guardian, which has raised questions about the influence Usmanov has exerted over Moshiri and the Premier League club, including how the Russian tycoon came to attend job interviews with a series of prospective Everton managers before March 2022.
It also follows a Guardian report that revealed how the club’s auditor, BDO, stepped away from signing off the club’s accounts last year – a decision sources said was related to the ownership of the Premier League team.
The Guardian understands that BDO’s concerns led to OFSI being notified about Moshiri, who has hired an expert sanctions lawyer at Peters & Peters – one of the UK’s largest law firms – according to correspondence sent to the Guardian on Moshiri’s behalf.
The news of OFSI’s apparent interest in Moshiri’s finances has emerged as the football team narrowly avoided relegation from the Premier League and while Moshiri is attempting to find investment to bankroll the club and complete its new stadium.
It is understood that an investment offer on the table would result in Moshiri – who is estimated to have ploughed £750m into Everton – losing control of the club without being paid a penny, according to sources close to the negotiations.
Any lack of payment to Moshiri could raise questions about whether Everton is being treated in a similar manner to Chelsea FC when it was acquired from the sanctioned oligarch Roman Abramovich last year. Abramovich was prevented by the UK government from benefiting financially from the sale of the London club...
...However, the Guardian understands that Moshiri’s UK bank closed his account last year, seemingly because of his connections to Usmanov.
Moshiri declined to comment on OFSI’s apparent interest in his finances or the status of his UK bank account. The Treasury said that neither it nor OFSI commented on individual cases.
BREAKING: Boris Johnson’s spokesperson says all of the former PM’s WhatsApps and notebooks requested by Covid Inquiry have been handed to Cabinet Office in full.
Now up to Cabinet Office to hand them over to Inquiry or not. Johnson urges them to do so. Deadline 4pm tomorrow.
From a political betting view point, Primeminister Wallace or Mourdant might be close now.
Sunak might be toast. He is already in a very weak position. With Tories on 28% and slaughtered in the locals - Sunak’s WhatsAppGate could be about to finish him. The second Tory PM this parliament brought down by covid.
A worry for Labour as they clearly have Sunak beaten, sub 200 Tory seats even. But PM Penny might trump Labour appeals for a fresh change.
Penny will come across as more centre ground to voters than the increasingly right wing Starmer front bench.
Sunak actually polls better than his party, especially with under 50s and urban professionals.
Mordaunt is too woke for the party membership as leader.
I doubt the whatsapp messages will make the slightest difference to Sunak's position, indeed Tory and RefUK voters think we locked down too early and too long if anything
With the benefit of hindsight, which I fully accept was not available at the time and the risks were very difficult to calculate, I think it is far from clear that we should ever have locked down at all. Protected vulnerable groups, certainly. Ensured proper protection for medical and care staff beyond doubt. But closing schools, factories, pubs, restaurants, etc. I think it was a mistake now.
This is the familiar fallacy that you could somehow protect vulnerable groups while not doing enough to control the spread of the virus in the rest of the population.
A more serious suggestion is to consider how test & trace could have been done better.
And that's one of the things I really hope comes out of this inquiry: if we need to do something like t&t again, how would we do it cheaper and more effectively?
The one thing I do exculpate the Government over were the numerous mistakes it made. Not the corrupt ones - it should have its arse slapped for that, no messing - but the everyday fuckups. I hope it does better next time, but in a big way, not the little sillinesses.
BREAKING: Boris Johnson’s spokesperson says all of the former PM’s WhatsApps and notebooks requested by Covid Inquiry have been handed to Cabinet Office in full.
Now up to Cabinet Office to hand them over to Inquiry or not. Johnson urges them to do so. Deadline 4pm tomorrow.
From a political betting view point, Primeminister Wallace or Mourdant might be close now.
Sunak might be toast. He is already in a very weak position. With Tories on 28% and slaughtered in the locals - Sunak’s WhatsAppGate could be about to finish him. The second Tory PM this parliament brought down by covid.
A worry for Labour as they clearly have Sunak beaten, sub 200 Tory seats even. But PM Penny might trump Labour appeals for a fresh change.
Penny will come across as more centre ground to voters than the increasingly right wing Starmer front bench.
Sunak actually polls better than his party, especially with under 50s and urban professionals.
Mordaunt is too woke for the party membership as leader.
I doubt the whatsapp messages will make the slightest difference to Sunak's position, indeed Tory and RefUK voters think we locked down too early and too long if anything
With the benefit of hindsight, which I fully accept was not available at the time and the risks were very difficult to calculate, I think it is far from clear that we should ever have locked down at all. Protected vulnerable groups, certainly. Ensured proper protection for medical and care staff beyond doubt. But closing schools, factories, pubs, restaurants, etc. I think it was a mistake now.
This is the familiar fallacy that you could somehow protect vulnerable groups while not doing enough to control the spread of the virus in the rest of the population.
A more serious suggestion is to consider how test & trace could have been done better.
And that's one of the things I really hope comes out of this inquiry: if we need to do something like t&t again, how would we do it cheaper and more effectively?
BREAKING: Boris Johnson’s spokesperson says all of the former PM’s WhatsApps and notebooks requested by Covid Inquiry have been handed to Cabinet Office in full.
Now up to Cabinet Office to hand them over to Inquiry or not. Johnson urges them to do so. Deadline 4pm tomorrow.
From a political betting view point, Primeminister Wallace or Mourdant might be close now.
Sunak might be toast. He is already in a very weak position. With Tories on 28% and slaughtered in the locals - Sunak’s WhatsAppGate could be about to finish him. The second Tory PM this parliament brought down by covid.
A worry for Labour as they clearly have Sunak beaten, sub 200 Tory seats even. But PM Penny might trump Labour appeals for a fresh change.
Penny will come across as more centre ground to voters than the increasingly right wing Starmer front bench.
Sunak actually polls better than his party, especially with under 50s and urban professionals.
Mordaunt is too woke for the party membership as leader.
I doubt the whatsapp messages will make the slightest difference to Sunak's position, indeed Tory and RefUK voters think we locked down too early and too long if anything
indeed I am more likely to vote for him if he was revealed to be more anti-lockdown.
Given the role he played in EOTHO I think it is safe to assume he was. He may have made some less than tactful comments about setting off the economic damage with a limited number of deaths though.
Sunak's attitude isn't news...
A Sunday Times investigation found that the new restrictions were being supported by Hancock, Gove, and Johnson’s chief adviser, Dominic Cummings. But Sunak was vehemently opposed, fearing mass redundancies.14 Sunak’s opposition led to four people being invited to address Johnson and him on 20 September, of whom three also opposed a lockdown: Sunetra Gupta and Carl Heneghan, professors at Oxford University, and Anders Tegnell, architect of Sweden’s controversial policy of avoiding lockdowns.
well sunak's gone up in my estimation then. Even if you disagree with his view on this , this is just arguing a position and a view - something we should surely encourage politicians to do? Do we all want them to be sheep?
If true that will likely boost Sunak as it might win back some anti lockdown voters from RefUK to the Tories
Truth is, lock downs were massively popular with the public. It’s not widely understood Sunak brought in Anders Tegnell to talk Boris out of locking down, once it is, Sunak is toast.
Can you not see how at odds that will be with Sunak looking into the camera and promising “whatever it takes” as his public position, and now trying to hide his private activity and positions? Two faced and sneaky? This will be as bad as Brown’s “election? I wasn’t planning an election” moment.
Wallace and Penny as next PM market prices are suddenly value this evening, as a political betting post - so says someone who doesn’t spin on this site, but happily slays the spinners.
Sorry @dixiedean but I think this means Everton are fucked, even more so than if you were relegated.
The Treasury’s sanctions police have been reviewing the finances of the Everton Football Club owner, Farhad Moshiri, the Guardian understands.
Moshiri appears to have become a person of interest to the Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation (OFSI) because of his links to Alisher Usmanov, the Russian-Uzbek billionaire who was sanctioned by the UK, the EU and the US after last year’s invasion of Ukraine.
Usmanov has also been barred from entering the UK since September 2021 after his presence was “not deemed conducive to the public good”.
The apparent interest in Moshiri coincides with months of reporting by the Guardian, which has raised questions about the influence Usmanov has exerted over Moshiri and the Premier League club, including how the Russian tycoon came to attend job interviews with a series of prospective Everton managers before March 2022.
It also follows a Guardian report that revealed how the club’s auditor, BDO, stepped away from signing off the club’s accounts last year – a decision sources said was related to the ownership of the Premier League team.
The Guardian understands that BDO’s concerns led to OFSI being notified about Moshiri, who has hired an expert sanctions lawyer at Peters & Peters – one of the UK’s largest law firms – according to correspondence sent to the Guardian on Moshiri’s behalf.
The news of OFSI’s apparent interest in Moshiri’s finances has emerged as the football team narrowly avoided relegation from the Premier League and while Moshiri is attempting to find investment to bankroll the club and complete its new stadium.
It is understood that an investment offer on the table would result in Moshiri – who is estimated to have ploughed £750m into Everton – losing control of the club without being paid a penny, according to sources close to the negotiations.
Any lack of payment to Moshiri could raise questions about whether Everton is being treated in a similar manner to Chelsea FC when it was acquired from the sanctioned oligarch Roman Abramovich last year. Abramovich was prevented by the UK government from benefiting financially from the sale of the London club...
...However, the Guardian understands that Moshiri’s UK bank closed his account last year, seemingly because of his connections to Usmanov.
Moshiri declined to comment on OFSI’s apparent interest in his finances or the status of his UK bank account. The Treasury said that neither it nor OFSI commented on individual cases.
The number of unforced errors and own goals scored by Starmer is mounting up now, in my opinion - Sue Gray, Dale Vince, no new contracts in North Sea, no new money for NHS - if this was the frenzy of a general election campaign right now, Labour would be getting shredded in the media narrative.
Dale Vince? Who is Dale vince?
An unforced error shouldn't be judged by something Paul Dacre disagree with. For what it's worth I suspect his appointment of Sue Gray will turn out t be a very shrewd one. Someone said people form their views as birds build their nest; Over time and bit by bit and are hard to shift once they're formed. Sue Gray is considered a person of integrity which seems to build the sense that most people have of Starmer.
The fluff usually turns out to be just that
For someone so knowledgeable suggesting who Dale Vince is is unconvincing
I'm in France and I've never heard of him. Have you ever heard of Jonathan Glazer?
Re AI. Caught a 9 year old using it to do classwork last week. Took it to the Deputy Head. She'd never heard of it. Consulted the media team as to why it hadn't been blocked. They "thought it might be very useful!" The 9 year old obviously agreed... Finally got it blocked as me and my boss patiently explained to a frankly gobsmacked Senior Leadership Team just what it was capable of.
Sounds as though the kid might have given the teaching staff lessons.
BREAKING: Boris Johnson’s spokesperson says all of the former PM’s WhatsApps and notebooks requested by Covid Inquiry have been handed to Cabinet Office in full.
Now up to Cabinet Office to hand them over to Inquiry or not. Johnson urges them to do so. Deadline 4pm tomorrow.
From a political betting view point, Primeminister Wallace or Mourdant might be close now.
Sunak might be toast. He is already in a very weak position. With Tories on 28% and slaughtered in the locals - Sunak’s WhatsAppGate could be about to finish him. The second Tory PM this parliament brought down by covid.
A worry for Labour as they clearly have Sunak beaten, sub 200 Tory seats even. But PM Penny might trump Labour appeals for a fresh change.
Penny will come across as more centre ground to voters than the increasingly right wing Starmer front bench.
Sunak actually polls better than his party, especially with under 50s and urban professionals.
Mordaunt is too woke for the party membership as leader.
I doubt the whatsapp messages will make the slightest difference to Sunak's position, indeed Tory and RefUK voters think we locked down too early and too long if anything
You do make me laugh with your polling psephology. 🙂
“Sunak actually polls better than his party”. Saying what? Flesh eating bugs are currently polling better than the Tory party. What Sunak is currently polling and clearly cannot now improve on, is bloodbath election. Any scandal which sends his ratings to Boris and Corbyn levels and knocks 4% off the current Tory polling is obviously going to finish him.
Currently about 34% prefer Sunak as PM to Starmer, if he manages to raise the Tory voteshare from its current 25-30% to that 34% then he would at least ensure the Tories won more seats than from 1997-2005 under Major, Hague and Howard. It would be a clear defeat but should secure them around 200-250 seats rather than the 165 in their landslide defeat in 1997 and much better than the 0-50 seat annihilation they were heading for in the last days of Liz Truss' premiership
You are talking “ifs” - the factual known psephology in front of us says bloodbath. Sunak leading the party electorally to a number of MPs its hard to come back to government from, and in his three government roles chief architect of the high tax, new taxes, sly taxes, money wasting, income shrinking, high debt and aspiration blocking awful reputation, that is hard to come back from.
1832, 1906, 1945 and 1997 and 2001 are the worst Tory defeats in history and arguably all were bloodbaths. In all those 5 general elections the Tories got less than 200 seats. (BigG and JackW remember them well, the exit poll in 1832 was a shocker, how could the Iron Duke lose after his victory at Waterloo!)
If Sunak got the Tories close to 250 seats he would have done about the same as Brown did in 2010 and Heath did in 1966 and of course within a year Ed Miliband was leading the polls as Leader of the Opposition and in 1970 Heath won a shock election win against Wilson.
BREAKING: Boris Johnson’s spokesperson says all of the former PM’s WhatsApps and notebooks requested by Covid Inquiry have been handed to Cabinet Office in full.
Now up to Cabinet Office to hand them over to Inquiry or not. Johnson urges them to do so. Deadline 4pm tomorrow.
From a political betting view point, Primeminister Wallace or Mourdant might be close now.
Sunak might be toast. He is already in a very weak position. With Tories on 28% and slaughtered in the locals - Sunak’s WhatsAppGate could be about to finish him. The second Tory PM this parliament brought down by covid.
A worry for Labour as they clearly have Sunak beaten, sub 200 Tory seats even. But PM Penny might trump Labour appeals for a fresh change.
Penny will come across as more centre ground to voters than the increasingly right wing Starmer front bench.
Sunak actually polls better than his party, especially with under 50s and urban professionals.
Mordaunt is too woke for the party membership as leader.
I doubt the whatsapp messages will make the slightest difference to Sunak's position, indeed Tory and RefUK voters think we locked down too early and too long if anything
indeed I am more likely to vote for him if he was revealed to be more anti-lockdown.
Given the role he played in EOTHO I think it is safe to assume he was. He may have made some less than tactful comments about setting off the economic damage with a limited number of deaths though.
Sunak's attitude isn't news...
A Sunday Times investigation found that the new restrictions were being supported by Hancock, Gove, and Johnson’s chief adviser, Dominic Cummings. But Sunak was vehemently opposed, fearing mass redundancies.14 Sunak’s opposition led to four people being invited to address Johnson and him on 20 September, of whom three also opposed a lockdown: Sunetra Gupta and Carl Heneghan, professors at Oxford University, and Anders Tegnell, architect of Sweden’s controversial policy of avoiding lockdowns.
well sunak's gone up in my estimation then. Even if you disagree with his view on this , this is just arguing a position and a view - something we should surely encourage politicians to do? Do we all want them to be sheep?
If true that will likely boost Sunak as it might win back some anti lockdown voters from RefUK to the Tories
Truth is, lock downs were massively popular with the public. It’s not widely understood Sunak brought in Anders Tegnell to talk Boris out of locking down, once it is, Sunak is toast.
It's widely enough understood that Sunak's pet scheme was the "Eat Out To Help Out" effort to get people socialising again. I wish someone could explain why they thought that strategy was anything other than a recipe for another lockdown, in an unvaccinated population, only a small percentage of whom had been infected.
Are the risks worth us continually feeding it data?
Seems to me an assumption everyone’s making is that the benefit to society - and the economy - in terms of efficiency etc is worth the risks.
Is that so?
Maybe it’ll take some catastrophe before we conclude that banning the sensor and turning off the internet is the best option.
Or just very heavily regulate it.
If it really is like the atom bomb, then a tech-npt may be where we end up.
Hmm.
Trouble is, I just can't see the corporations stopping development of AI, no matter what they say in public, or sign up to
The first tech megacorp to reach AGI will wipe out its competitors
This is even truer of nations. Will America really voluntarily cease development of AGI, just trusting the Chinese to do the same? This isn't like nukes when you can monitor things, to an extent. This can all be done in small rooms with computers, you cannot check
The military potential of AGI is world changing. The West cannot afford to let China seize a crucial lead, but nor can China do the same in return
We are hurtling towards Real AGI whether we like it or not.
Brace
Exactly. Way too many people get hung up on questions about whether AI thinks, is concious, is sentient, has a memory, and other quite often ill-defined concepts, NONE OF WHICH MATTER. If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck then for all practical purposes our duck is as duck-like as it needs to be. The essence of the evil superintelligence doesn't matter if it ends up destroying the world. Capabilities matter, not how they are achieved, what's inside the box is a concern for the developers.
And long before we get run-away AGI we will be dealing with a whole heap of other very bad stuff, with little prospect of regulation even slowing it down.
BREAKING: Boris Johnson’s spokesperson says all of the former PM’s WhatsApps and notebooks requested by Covid Inquiry have been handed to Cabinet Office in full.
Now up to Cabinet Office to hand them over to Inquiry or not. Johnson urges them to do so. Deadline 4pm tomorrow.
From a political betting view point, Primeminister Wallace or Mourdant might be close now.
Sunak might be toast. He is already in a very weak position. With Tories on 28% and slaughtered in the locals - Sunak’s WhatsAppGate could be about to finish him. The second Tory PM this parliament brought down by covid.
A worry for Labour as they clearly have Sunak beaten, sub 200 Tory seats even. But PM Penny might trump Labour appeals for a fresh change.
Penny will come across as more centre ground to voters than the increasingly right wing Starmer front bench.
Sunak actually polls better than his party, especially with under 50s and urban professionals.
Mordaunt is too woke for the party membership as leader.
I doubt the whatsapp messages will make the slightest difference to Sunak's position, indeed Tory and RefUK voters think we locked down too early and too long if anything
With the benefit of hindsight, which I fully accept was not available at the time and the risks were very difficult to calculate, I think it is far from clear that we should ever have locked down at all. Protected vulnerable groups, certainly. Ensured proper protection for medical and care staff beyond doubt. But closing schools, factories, pubs, restaurants, etc. I think it was a mistake now.
This is the familiar fallacy that you could somehow protect vulnerable groups while not doing enough to control the spread of the virus in the rest of the population.
A more serious suggestion is to consider how test & trace could have been done better.
Rather, how it might better be done in the future. The technology has moved on, as should our planning.
FWIW, I think we wasted quite a few billions we need not have done (even without the benefit of hindsight), but working out how we might better have done it three years ago is not the same thing at all as planning for the future.
BREAKING: Boris Johnson’s spokesperson says all of the former PM’s WhatsApps and notebooks requested by Covid Inquiry have been handed to Cabinet Office in full.
Now up to Cabinet Office to hand them over to Inquiry or not. Johnson urges them to do so. Deadline 4pm tomorrow.
From a political betting view point, Primeminister Wallace or Mourdant might be close now.
Sunak might be toast. He is already in a very weak position. With Tories on 28% and slaughtered in the locals - Sunak’s WhatsAppGate could be about to finish him. The second Tory PM this parliament brought down by covid.
A worry for Labour as they clearly have Sunak beaten, sub 200 Tory seats even. But PM Penny might trump Labour appeals for a fresh change.
Penny will come across as more centre ground to voters than the increasingly right wing Starmer front bench.
Sunak actually polls better than his party, especially with under 50s and urban professionals.
Mordaunt is too woke for the party membership as leader.
I doubt the whatsapp messages will make the slightest difference to Sunak's position, indeed Tory and RefUK voters think we locked down too early and too long if anything
With the benefit of hindsight, which I fully accept was not available at the time and the risks were very difficult to calculate, I think it is far from clear that we should ever have locked down at all. Protected vulnerable groups, certainly. Ensured proper protection for medical and care staff beyond doubt. But closing schools, factories, pubs, restaurants, etc. I think it was a mistake now.
This is the familiar fallacy that you could somehow protect vulnerable groups while not doing enough to control the spread of the virus in the rest of the population.
A more serious suggestion is to consider how test & trace could have been done better.
And that's one of the things I really hope comes out of this inquiry: if we need to do something like t&t again, how would we do it cheaper and more effectively?
Harry Cole reckons Johnson has just lobbed a grenade into the Cabinet Office.
Has Johnson got the march on Sunak by claiming no discomfort whatsoever about the contents of his note books and WhatsApps? If the Cabinet Office push back against this, Johnson might have played a blinder.
ITV has launched an externally led review to "establish the facts" about its handling of a relationship between Phillip Schofield and his colleague.
Establish the facts Review the evidence Learn the lessons
Serve the public trust Protect the innocent Uphold the law
Wait, that's something else.
Sam Tyler "Our definitions of policing may vary marginally" Gene Hunt: "And yours is?" Sam "Serve the public trust. Protect the innocent. Uphold the law" Gene "Training College?" Sam "RoboCop"
BREAKING: Boris Johnson’s spokesperson says all of the former PM’s WhatsApps and notebooks requested by Covid Inquiry have been handed to Cabinet Office in full.
Now up to Cabinet Office to hand them over to Inquiry or not. Johnson urges them to do so. Deadline 4pm tomorrow.
From a political betting view point, Primeminister Wallace or Mourdant might be close now.
Sunak might be toast. He is already in a very weak position. With Tories on 28% and slaughtered in the locals - Sunak’s WhatsAppGate could be about to finish him. The second Tory PM this parliament brought down by covid.
A worry for Labour as they clearly have Sunak beaten, sub 200 Tory seats even. But PM Penny might trump Labour appeals for a fresh change.
Penny will come across as more centre ground to voters than the increasingly right wing Starmer front bench.
The enquiry is taking evidence over the next 3 years and then has to compile the report which may be available in 2007 or 2008
All the main players including Johnson, Sunak, Sturgeon, Drakeford and Foster will be long gone
Penny will only win the leadership after the next GE in October 24 as Wallace wants the NATO position
No Big G, you are missing something here. Whatever Sunak is going to such lengths to hide is going to become public knowledge soon.
Anyone breaching the confidentiality of a judge led public enquiry is going to be in serious trouble
But there will be public hearings well before the final report is published. If something sufficiently bad emerges during them, all sorts of people may find themselves in an untenable position pretty quickly.
I understand the vaccine programme will be the only part of the enquiry to be reported on before GE 24
If I am wrong I stand to be corrected but that was my understanding from the timetable released by the judge yesterday
BREAKING: Boris Johnson’s spokesperson says all of the former PM’s WhatsApps and notebooks requested by Covid Inquiry have been handed to Cabinet Office in full.
Now up to Cabinet Office to hand them over to Inquiry or not. Johnson urges them to do so. Deadline 4pm tomorrow.
From a political betting view point, Primeminister Wallace or Mourdant might be close now.
Sunak might be toast. He is already in a very weak position. With Tories on 28% and slaughtered in the locals - Sunak’s WhatsAppGate could be about to finish him. The second Tory PM this parliament brought down by covid.
A worry for Labour as they clearly have Sunak beaten, sub 200 Tory seats even. But PM Penny might trump Labour appeals for a fresh change.
Penny will come across as more centre ground to voters than the increasingly right wing Starmer front bench.
The enquiry is taking evidence over the next 3 years and then has to compile the report which may be available in 2007 or 2008
All the main players including Johnson, Sunak, Sturgeon, Drakeford and Foster will be long gone
Penny will only win the leadership after the next GE in October 24 as Wallace wants the NATO position
No Big G, you are missing something here. Whatever Sunak is going to such lengths to hide is going to become public knowledge soon.
Anyone breaching the confidentiality of a judge led public enquiry is going to be in serious trouble
But there will be public hearings well before the final report is published. If something sufficiently bad emerges during them, all sorts of people may find themselves in an untenable position pretty quickly.
I understand the vaccine programme will be the only part of the enquiry to be reported on before GE 24
If I am wrong I stand to be corrected but that was my understanding from the timetable released by the judge yesterday
ITV has launched an externally led review to "establish the facts" about its handling of a relationship between Phillip Schofield and his colleague.
Establish the facts Review the evidence Learn the lessons
Serve the public trust Protect the innocent Uphold the law
Wait, that's something else.
Sam Tyler "Our definitions of policing may vary marginally" Gene Hunt: "And yours is?" Sam "Serve the public trust. Protect the innocent. Uphold the law" Gene "Training College?" Sam "RoboCop"
Harry Cole reckons Johnson has just lobbed a grenade into the Cabinet Office.
Has Johnson got the march on Sunak by claiming no discomfort whatsoever about the contents of his note books and WhatsApps? If the Cabinet Office push back against this, Johnson might have played a blinder.
Sweet innocent child.
Do we really believe Boris Johnson has delivered all the info required?
This is from last year.
No phone messages sent by Boris Johnson before April 2021 are available for scrutiny because of a previous security breach, the government has admitted.
It emerged as part of a court hearing during which campaign groups claimed there were “many instances” of government decisions made over phone messaging services being unlawfully deleted.
All the Citizens and the Good Law Project have alleged that ministers are breaching the law by failing to follow policies by deleting messages and using private accounts for government business.
In a witness statement, Ms Harrison said: “In April 2021, in light of a well-publicised security breach, the prime minister implemented security advice relating to a mobile device. The effect was that historic messages were no longer available to search and the phone is not active.”
BREAKING: Boris Johnson’s spokesperson says all of the former PM’s WhatsApps and notebooks requested by Covid Inquiry have been handed to Cabinet Office in full.
Now up to Cabinet Office to hand them over to Inquiry or not. Johnson urges them to do so. Deadline 4pm tomorrow.
From a political betting view point, Primeminister Wallace or Mourdant might be close now.
Sunak might be toast. He is already in a very weak position. With Tories on 28% and slaughtered in the locals - Sunak’s WhatsAppGate could be about to finish him. The second Tory PM this parliament brought down by covid.
A worry for Labour as they clearly have Sunak beaten, sub 200 Tory seats even. But PM Penny might trump Labour appeals for a fresh change.
Penny will come across as more centre ground to voters than the increasingly right wing Starmer front bench.
Sunak actually polls better than his party, especially with under 50s and urban professionals.
Mordaunt is too woke for the party membership as leader.
I doubt the whatsapp messages will make the slightest difference to Sunak's position, indeed Tory and RefUK voters think we locked down too early and too long if anything
indeed I am more likely to vote for him if he was revealed to be more anti-lockdown.
Given the role he played in EOTHO I think it is safe to assume he was. He may have made some less than tactful comments about setting off the economic damage with a limited number of deaths though.
Sunak's attitude isn't news...
A Sunday Times investigation found that the new restrictions were being supported by Hancock, Gove, and Johnson’s chief adviser, Dominic Cummings. But Sunak was vehemently opposed, fearing mass redundancies.14 Sunak’s opposition led to four people being invited to address Johnson and him on 20 September, of whom three also opposed a lockdown: Sunetra Gupta and Carl Heneghan, professors at Oxford University, and Anders Tegnell, architect of Sweden’s controversial policy of avoiding lockdowns.
well sunak's gone up in my estimation then. Even if you disagree with his view on this , this is just arguing a position and a view - something we should surely encourage politicians to do? Do we all want them to be sheep?
If true that will likely boost Sunak as it might win back some anti lockdown voters from RefUK to the Tories
Truth is, lock downs were massively popular with the public. It’s not widely understood Sunak brought in Anders Tegnell to talk Boris out of locking down, once it is, Sunak is toast.
Can you not see how at odds that will be with Sunak looking into the camera and promising “whatever it takes” as his public position, and now trying to hide his private activity and positions? Two faced and sneaky? This will be as bad as Brown’s “election? I wasn’t planning an election” moment.
Wallace and Penny as next PM market prices are suddenly value this evening, as a political betting post - so says someone who doesn’t spin on this site, but happily slays the spinners.
27% opposed mandatory mask wearing in public places indoors and 26% not allowing non essential shops to re open, at least as high as most current Tory poll ratings. 34% opposed closing garden centres in lockdown, 36% opposed closing nurseries, higher than current Tory poll ratings
BREAKING: Boris Johnson’s spokesperson says all of the former PM’s WhatsApps and notebooks requested by Covid Inquiry have been handed to Cabinet Office in full.
Now up to Cabinet Office to hand them over to Inquiry or not. Johnson urges them to do so. Deadline 4pm tomorrow.
From a political betting view point, Primeminister Wallace or Mourdant might be close now.
Sunak might be toast. He is already in a very weak position. With Tories on 28% and slaughtered in the locals - Sunak’s WhatsAppGate could be about to finish him. The second Tory PM this parliament brought down by covid.
A worry for Labour as they clearly have Sunak beaten, sub 200 Tory seats even. But PM Penny might trump Labour appeals for a fresh change.
Penny will come across as more centre ground to voters than the increasingly right wing Starmer front bench.
Sunak actually polls better than his party, especially with under 50s and urban professionals.
Mordaunt is too woke for the party membership as leader.
I doubt the whatsapp messages will make the slightest difference to Sunak's position, indeed Tory and RefUK voters think we locked down too early and too long if anything
indeed I am more likely to vote for him if he was revealed to be more anti-lockdown.
Given the role he played in EOTHO I think it is safe to assume he was. He may have made some less than tactful comments about setting off the economic damage with a limited number of deaths though.
Sunak's attitude isn't news...
A Sunday Times investigation found that the new restrictions were being supported by Hancock, Gove, and Johnson’s chief adviser, Dominic Cummings. But Sunak was vehemently opposed, fearing mass redundancies.14 Sunak’s opposition led to four people being invited to address Johnson and him on 20 September, of whom three also opposed a lockdown: Sunetra Gupta and Carl Heneghan, professors at Oxford University, and Anders Tegnell, architect of Sweden’s controversial policy of avoiding lockdowns.
well sunak's gone up in my estimation then. Even if you disagree with his view on this , this is just arguing a position and a view - something we should surely encourage politicians to do? Do we all want them to be sheep?
If true that will likely boost Sunak as it might win back some anti lockdown voters from RefUK to the Tories
Truth is, lock downs were massively popular with the public. It’s not widely understood Sunak brought in Anders Tegnell to talk Boris out of locking down, once it is, Sunak is toast.
It's widely enough understood that Sunak's pet scheme was the "Eat Out To Help Out" effort to get people socialising again. I wish someone could explain why they thought that strategy was anything other than a recipe for another lockdown, in an unvaccinated population, only a small percentage of whom had been infected.
Wasn't there a popular and hard-to-disprove theory/model that enough of us had been infected by summer 2020?
Sorry @dixiedean but I think this means Everton are fucked, even more so than if you were relegated.
The Treasury’s sanctions police have been reviewing the finances of the Everton Football Club owner, Farhad Moshiri, the Guardian understands.
Moshiri appears to have become a person of interest to the Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation (OFSI) because of his links to Alisher Usmanov, the Russian-Uzbek billionaire who was sanctioned by the UK, the EU and the US after last year’s invasion of Ukraine.
Usmanov has also been barred from entering the UK since September 2021 after his presence was “not deemed conducive to the public good”.
The apparent interest in Moshiri coincides with months of reporting by the Guardian, which has raised questions about the influence Usmanov has exerted over Moshiri and the Premier League club, including how the Russian tycoon came to attend job interviews with a series of prospective Everton managers before March 2022.
It also follows a Guardian report that revealed how the club’s auditor, BDO, stepped away from signing off the club’s accounts last year – a decision sources said was related to the ownership of the Premier League team.
The Guardian understands that BDO’s concerns led to OFSI being notified about Moshiri, who has hired an expert sanctions lawyer at Peters & Peters – one of the UK’s largest law firms – according to correspondence sent to the Guardian on Moshiri’s behalf.
The news of OFSI’s apparent interest in Moshiri’s finances has emerged as the football team narrowly avoided relegation from the Premier League and while Moshiri is attempting to find investment to bankroll the club and complete its new stadium.
It is understood that an investment offer on the table would result in Moshiri – who is estimated to have ploughed £750m into Everton – losing control of the club without being paid a penny, according to sources close to the negotiations.
Any lack of payment to Moshiri could raise questions about whether Everton is being treated in a similar manner to Chelsea FC when it was acquired from the sanctioned oligarch Roman Abramovich last year. Abramovich was prevented by the UK government from benefiting financially from the sale of the London club...
...However, the Guardian understands that Moshiri’s UK bank closed his account last year, seemingly because of his connections to Usmanov.
Moshiri declined to comment on OFSI’s apparent interest in his finances or the status of his UK bank account. The Treasury said that neither it nor OFSI commented on individual cases.
BREAKING: Boris Johnson’s spokesperson says all of the former PM’s WhatsApps and notebooks requested by Covid Inquiry have been handed to Cabinet Office in full.
Now up to Cabinet Office to hand them over to Inquiry or not. Johnson urges them to do so. Deadline 4pm tomorrow.
From a political betting view point, Primeminister Wallace or Mourdant might be close now.
Sunak might be toast. He is already in a very weak position. With Tories on 28% and slaughtered in the locals - Sunak’s WhatsAppGate could be about to finish him. The second Tory PM this parliament brought down by covid.
A worry for Labour as they clearly have Sunak beaten, sub 200 Tory seats even. But PM Penny might trump Labour appeals for a fresh change.
Penny will come across as more centre ground to voters than the increasingly right wing Starmer front bench.
Sunak actually polls better than his party, especially with under 50s and urban professionals.
Mordaunt is too woke for the party membership as leader.
I doubt the whatsapp messages will make the slightest difference to Sunak's position, indeed Tory and RefUK voters think we locked down too early and too long if anything
indeed I am more likely to vote for him if he was revealed to be more anti-lockdown.
Given the role he played in EOTHO I think it is safe to assume he was. He may have made some less than tactful comments about setting off the economic damage with a limited number of deaths though.
Sunak's attitude isn't news...
A Sunday Times investigation found that the new restrictions were being supported by Hancock, Gove, and Johnson’s chief adviser, Dominic Cummings. But Sunak was vehemently opposed, fearing mass redundancies.14 Sunak’s opposition led to four people being invited to address Johnson and him on 20 September, of whom three also opposed a lockdown: Sunetra Gupta and Carl Heneghan, professors at Oxford University, and Anders Tegnell, architect of Sweden’s controversial policy of avoiding lockdowns.
well sunak's gone up in my estimation then. Even if you disagree with his view on this , this is just arguing a position and a view - something we should surely encourage politicians to do? Do we all want them to be sheep?
If true that will likely boost Sunak as it might win back some anti lockdown voters from RefUK to the Tories
Truth is, lock downs were massively popular with the public. It’s not widely understood Sunak brought in Anders Tegnell to talk Boris out of locking down, once it is, Sunak is toast.
It's widely enough understood that Sunak's pet scheme was the "Eat Out To Help Out" effort to get people socialising again. I wish someone could explain why they thought that strategy was anything other than a recipe for another lockdown, in an unvaccinated population, only a small percentage of whom had been infected.
The second wave in Europe got started in earnest from people partying in Spain and then bringing it back. I'm not sure that eat out to help out was that significant in the scheme of things.
Harry Cole reckons Johnson has just lobbed a grenade into the Cabinet Office.
Has Johnson got the march on Sunak by claiming no discomfort whatsoever about the contents of his note books and WhatsApps? If the Cabinet Office push back against this, Johnson might have played a blinder.
Sweet innocent child.
Do we really believe Boris Johnson has delivered all the info required?
This is from last year.
No phone messages sent by Boris Johnson before April 2021 are available for scrutiny because of a previous security breach, the government has admitted.
It emerged as part of a court hearing during which campaign groups claimed there were “many instances” of government decisions made over phone messaging services being unlawfully deleted.
All the Citizens and the Good Law Project have alleged that ministers are breaching the law by failing to follow policies by deleting messages and using private accounts for government business.
In a witness statement, Ms Harrison said: “In April 2021, in light of a well-publicised security breach, the prime minister implemented security advice relating to a mobile device. The effect was that historic messages were no longer available to search and the phone is not active.”
The YouGov numbers are far from desperate for the Conservatives.
The 2019 Conservative vote is splitting 45% Conservative, 21% Don't Know ,11% Labour and 9% Reform. That 21% DK represents 9% of the total electorate so get most of those back and the Conservative VI is back into the low 30s. That's a big IF as @MoonRabbit might say.
Among the 65+ age group (excluding the DKs), the Conservatives lead 50-23 with Reform on 12. In 2019, this age group split 64-17 so that's only a 10% swing to Labour in the largest Conservative-voting group.
In England, the split is 45-26-12 with Reform on 8 and Green on 7. That equates to a 16% swing in England from Conservative to Labour. That would mean over 200 Conservative MPs losing their seats before we even consider tactical voting.
The hope for the Conservatives must be to try to claw the DKs back into the loyal camp but the gap (especially in England) remains large for all the older voters seem to be moving back slowly into the Conservative camp but among the largest age group (the 25-49 year olds), Labour enjoys a massive lead.
BREAKING: Boris Johnson’s spokesperson says all of the former PM’s WhatsApps and notebooks requested by Covid Inquiry have been handed to Cabinet Office in full.
Now up to Cabinet Office to hand them over to Inquiry or not. Johnson urges them to do so. Deadline 4pm tomorrow.
From a political betting view point, Primeminister Wallace or Mourdant might be close now.
Sunak might be toast. He is already in a very weak position. With Tories on 28% and slaughtered in the locals - Sunak’s WhatsAppGate could be about to finish him. The second Tory PM this parliament brought down by covid.
A worry for Labour as they clearly have Sunak beaten, sub 200 Tory seats even. But PM Penny might trump Labour appeals for a fresh change.
Penny will come across as more centre ground to voters than the increasingly right wing Starmer front bench.
Sunak actually polls better than his party, especially with under 50s and urban professionals.
Mordaunt is too woke for the party membership as leader.
I doubt the whatsapp messages will make the slightest difference to Sunak's position, indeed Tory and RefUK voters think we locked down too early and too long if anything
With the benefit of hindsight, which I fully accept was not available at the time and the risks were very difficult to calculate, I think it is far from clear that we should ever have locked down at all. Protected vulnerable groups, certainly. Ensured proper protection for medical and care staff beyond doubt. But closing schools, factories, pubs, restaurants, etc. I think it was a mistake now.
The problem is, of course, that we didn't have the benefit of hindsight. We had terrible scenes coming out of Northern Italy and New York. We had stories of ambulances running through the night.
And we knew very little of successful treatment methods, and had little idea when - or even if - a vaccine would be forthcoming.
I don't blame the government for the initial lockdown.
I do blame them for the severity of the restrictions, and the length of time they went on for, despite all the evidence that we were getting on top of the disease. It is an absolute disgrace that, even though we had a fantastic headstart with the vaccine roll out, that we lagged so many of our European peers for the removal of restrictions.
ITV has launched an externally led review to "establish the facts" about its handling of a relationship between Phillip Schofield and his colleague.
Establish the facts Review the evidence Learn the lessons
Serve the public trust Protect the innocent Uphold the law
Wait, that's something else.
Sam Tyler "Our definitions of policing may vary marginally" Gene Hunt: "And yours is?" Sam "Serve the public trust. Protect the innocent. Uphold the law" Gene "Training College?" Sam "RoboCop"
The YouGov numbers are far from desperate for the Conservatives.
The 2019 Conservative vote is splitting 45% Conservative, 21% Don't Know ,11% Labour and 9% Reform. That 21% DK represents 9% of the total electorate so get most of those back and the Conservative VI is back into the low 30s. That's a big IF as @MoonRabbit might say.
Among the 65+ age group (excluding the DKs), the Conservatives lead 50-23 with Reform on 12. In 2019, this age group split 64-17 so that's only a 10% swing to Labour in the largest Conservative-voting group.
In England, the split is 45-26-12 with Reform on 8 and Green on 7. That equates to a 16% swing in England from Conservative to Labour. That would mean over 200 Conservative MPs losing their seats before we even consider tactical voting.
The hope for the Conservatives must be to try to claw the DKs back into the loyal camp but the gap (especially in England) remains large for all the older voters seem to be moving back slowly into the Conservative camp but among the largest age group (the 25-49 year olds), Labour enjoys a massive lead.
The number of unforced errors and own goals scored by Starmer is mounting up now, in my opinion - Sue Gray, Dale Vince, no new contracts in North Sea, no new money for NHS - if this was the frenzy of a general election campaign right now, Labour would be getting shredded in the media narrative.
Dale Vince? Who is Dale vince?
An unforced error shouldn't be judged by something Paul Dacre disagree with. For what it's worth I suspect his appointment of Sue Gray will turn out t be a very shrewd one. Someone said people form their views as birds build their nest; Over time and bit by bit and are hard to shift once they're formed. Sue Gray is considered a person of integrity which seems to build the sense that most people have of Starmer.
The fluff usually turns out to be just that
Dale Vince made his money from green energy provision, tax paid in the UK. He is fine, although he has a silly name and personally speaking I wouldn't give a bean to Just Stop Oil.
And yet the usual suspects in the media and on here were comfortable with Lebedev cash.
And the same is true in reverse. People uncomfortable with Lebedev cash are happy with labour taking cash from Vince and then, by a happy coincidence, announcing a policy that persons business will undoubtedly gain from.
Comments
Applicants seeking to join RAF described as 'useless white male pilots' in bid to hit 'impossible' diversity targets
Leaked emails show the pressure apparently being applied to filter out white male recruits and fast-track women and ethnic minorities. It can also be revealed 31 white men are to receive £5,000 each to compensate them for being unfairly disadvantaged by the approach.
Maybe best to see what happens over the next 24 hours
“Sunak actually polls better than his party”. Saying what? Flesh eating bugs are currently polling better than the Tory party. What Sunak is currently polling and clearly cannot now improve on, is bloodbath election. Any scandal which sends his ratings to Boris and Corbyn levels and knocks 4% off the current Tory polling is obviously going to finish him.
OR run the risk of returning home a couple of stones lighter than when you left.
https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1663801783850786816
A Sunday Times investigation found that the new restrictions were being supported by Hancock, Gove, and Johnson’s chief adviser, Dominic Cummings. But Sunak was vehemently opposed, fearing mass redundancies.14 Sunak’s opposition led to four people being invited to address Johnson and him on 20 September, of whom three also opposed a lockdown: Sunetra Gupta and Carl Heneghan, professors at Oxford University, and Anders Tegnell, architect of Sweden’s controversial policy of avoiding lockdowns.
https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.o2715
If I am wrong I stand to be corrected but that was my understanding from the timetable released by the judge yesterday
An unforced error shouldn't be judged by something Paul Dacre disagree with. For what it's worth I suspect his appointment of Sue Gray will turn out t be a very shrewd one. Someone said people form their views as birds build their nest; Over time and bit by bit and are hard to shift once they're formed. Sue Gray is considered a person of integrity which seems to build the sense that most people have of Starmer.
The fluff usually turns out to be just that
https://www.itv.com/news/2023-05-30/the-covid-19-inquiry-timeline-and-what-its-hoped-it-will-achieve
Gorgeous evening here in East London - my favourite kind of weather, fine with a nice cool breeze. If you want heat, go and stand near somewhere hot.
On topic, the one thing any politician never wants is any perception they are not in control of events. It's much less a question of what Johnson did or didn't decide in those key days but to what extent he was truly in charge or in control. The slightest notion he wasn't in charge or in control would be deeply damaging to his political reputation.
It would invite the not unreasonable observation if he couldn't adequately manage this crisis, why would he do any better next time?
I recognise he was personally conflicted but that's not the point.
https://www.axios.com/2023/05/31/twitter-worth-third-elon-musk-purchase-price-fidelity
Usual caveats apply.
The first oral hearing of module 2, the core UK decision-making and political governance, is set for summer 2023.
My contention is that the moment of political danger for members of the government is those hearings, not the final report.
A more serious suggestion is to consider how test & trace could have been done better.
Penny because she can bring a contrast to the dour Starmer. If Penny fights a gay campaign, as they called them in the sixties, built on hope, a brexiteers open mind on how to improve Brexit, sunny optimism on economy and recovery of household budgets, in contrast to Starmer’s gloomy, this is a mess needing sorting with belt tightening, Remainer fear of touching Brexit, a manifesto he has already half written so can’t switch to an optimistic hopeful message, Penny can easily defend that landslide majority.
An eagle-eyed follower pointed out that Sunak’s glasses don’t reach his ears and now I cannot stop noticing it. (h/t @dc_litchfield) ~AA
https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1663814497130147841
And yet the usual suspects in the media and on here were comfortable with Lebedev cash.
The Treasury’s sanctions police have been reviewing the finances of the Everton Football Club owner, Farhad Moshiri, the Guardian understands.
Moshiri appears to have become a person of interest to the Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation (OFSI) because of his links to Alisher Usmanov, the Russian-Uzbek billionaire who was sanctioned by the UK, the EU and the US after last year’s invasion of Ukraine.
Usmanov has also been barred from entering the UK since September 2021 after his presence was “not deemed conducive to the public good”.
The apparent interest in Moshiri coincides with months of reporting by the Guardian, which has raised questions about the influence Usmanov has exerted over Moshiri and the Premier League club, including how the Russian tycoon came to attend job interviews with a series of prospective Everton managers before March 2022.
It also follows a Guardian report that revealed how the club’s auditor, BDO, stepped away from signing off the club’s accounts last year – a decision sources said was related to the ownership of the Premier League team.
The Guardian understands that BDO’s concerns led to OFSI being notified about Moshiri, who has hired an expert sanctions lawyer at Peters & Peters – one of the UK’s largest law firms – according to correspondence sent to the Guardian on Moshiri’s behalf.
The news of OFSI’s apparent interest in Moshiri’s finances has emerged as the football team narrowly avoided relegation from the Premier League and while Moshiri is attempting to find investment to bankroll the club and complete its new stadium.
It is understood that an investment offer on the table would result in Moshiri – who is estimated to have ploughed £750m into Everton – losing control of the club without being paid a penny, according to sources close to the negotiations.
Any lack of payment to Moshiri could raise questions about whether Everton is being treated in a similar manner to Chelsea FC when it was acquired from the sanctioned oligarch Roman Abramovich last year. Abramovich was prevented by the UK government from benefiting financially from the sale of the London club...
...However, the Guardian understands that Moshiri’s UK bank closed his account last year, seemingly because of his connections to Usmanov.
Moshiri declined to comment on OFSI’s apparent interest in his finances or the status of his UK bank account. The Treasury said that neither it nor OFSI commented on individual cases.
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2023/may/31/treasurys-sanctions-police-reviewing-finances-of-everton-fc-owner-guardian-understands
If Sunak got the Tories close to 250 seats he would have done about the same as Brown did in 2010 and Heath did in 1966 and of course within a year Ed Miliband was leading the polls as Leader of the Opposition and in 1970 Heath won a shock election win against Wilson.
However, the Guardian understands that Moshiri’s UK bank closed his account last year, seemingly because of his connections to Usmanov.
Review the evidence
Learn the lessons
Can you not see how at odds that will be with Sunak looking into the camera and promising “whatever it takes” as his public position, and now trying to hide his private activity and positions? Two faced and sneaky? This will be as bad as Brown’s “election? I wasn’t planning an election” moment.
Wallace and Penny as next PM market prices are suddenly value this evening, as a political betting post - so says someone who doesn’t spin on this site, but happily slays the spinners.
Everton should at least be saleable.
Protect the innocent
Uphold the law
Wait, that's something else.
And long before we get run-away AGI we will be dealing with a whole heap of other very bad stuff, with little prospect of regulation even slowing it down.
Seriously? Is that your take on this.
The technology has moved on, as should our planning.
FWIW, I think we wasted quite a few billions we need not have done (even without the benefit of hindsight), but working out how we might better have done it three years ago is not the same thing at all as planning for the future.
Has Johnson got the march on Sunak by claiming no discomfort whatsoever about the contents of his note books and WhatsApps? If the Cabinet Office push back against this, Johnson might have played a blinder.
Gene Hunt: "And yours is?"
Sam "Serve the public trust. Protect the innocent. Uphold the law"
Gene "Training College?"
Sam "RoboCop"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sSrqtepO9YU
These reasons are mounting up to make 2nd of May sound political bet.
These reasons are mounting up to make 2nd of May sound political bet.
Do we really believe Boris Johnson has delivered all the info required?
This is from last year.
No phone messages sent by Boris Johnson before April 2021 are available for scrutiny because of a previous security breach, the government has admitted.
It emerged as part of a court hearing during which campaign groups claimed there were “many instances” of government decisions made over phone messaging services being unlawfully deleted.
All the Citizens and the Good Law Project have alleged that ministers are breaching the law by failing to follow policies by deleting messages and using private accounts for government business.
In a witness statement, Ms Harrison said: “In April 2021, in light of a well-publicised security breach, the prime minister implemented security advice relating to a mobile device. The effect was that historic messages were no longer available to search and the phone is not active.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-phone-text-messages-b2041490.html
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/01/20/britons-attitudes-toward-national-lockdown
Possible points deduction/transfer embargo.
Also a stadium to finance.
P..S. Does Johnson share a PA with Rebekah Vardy?
The 2019 Conservative vote is splitting 45% Conservative, 21% Don't Know ,11% Labour and 9% Reform. That 21% DK represents 9% of the total electorate so get most of those back and the Conservative VI is back into the low 30s. That's a big IF as @MoonRabbit might say.
Among the 65+ age group (excluding the DKs), the Conservatives lead 50-23 with Reform on 12. In 2019, this age group split 64-17 so that's only a 10% swing to Labour in the largest Conservative-voting group.
In England, the split is 45-26-12 with Reform on 8 and Green on 7. That equates to a 16% swing in England from Conservative to Labour. That would mean over 200 Conservative MPs losing their seats before we even consider tactical voting.
The hope for the Conservatives must be to try to claw the DKs back into the loyal camp but the gap (especially in England) remains large for all the older voters seem to be moving back slowly into the Conservative camp but among the largest age group (the 25-49 year olds), Labour enjoys a massive lead.
And we knew very little of successful treatment methods, and had little idea when - or even if - a vaccine would be forthcoming.
I don't blame the government for the initial lockdown.
I do blame them for the severity of the restrictions, and the length of time they went on for, despite all the evidence that we were getting on top of the disease. It is an absolute disgrace that, even though we had a fantastic headstart with the vaccine roll out, that we lagged so many of our European peers for the removal of restrictions.
NEW THREAD
This thread has to go. Somewhere there is a crime happening.
😇
Trebles all round.