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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How votes have been churning between the parties since 2010

SystemSystem Posts: 12,214
edited February 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How votes have been churning between the parties since 2010

We don’t often view polling data in this way partly because the sample sizes in the regular surveys are not really large enough to draw conclusions from sub-samples.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • The LAB chart shows just how important 2010 LAB switchers are to Ed Miliband.
    Really...?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,034
    edited February 2014
    From this selection of charts I surmise that the LDs currently have no supporters worth mentioning!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,469
    Off-topic:

    How much gold is there in the world?

    http://www.gizmodo.co.uk/2014/02/this-is-what-all-the-gold-in-the-world-looks-like-and-it-doesnt-look-like-much/

    It's strange how fellow EU members seem to have rather a lot of gold, ye we don't. See (1). Can anyone think of a reason why that might be? :innocent face:

    (1): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_reserve
  • RobD said:

    From this selection of charts I surmise that the LDs currently have no supporters worth mentioning!

    Or perhaps there has been no discernable ‘churning’ since 2010 worth mentioning – as if..!
  • Off-topic:

    How much gold is there in the world?

    http://www.gizmodo.co.uk/2014/02/this-is-what-all-the-gold-in-the-world-looks-like-and-it-doesnt-look-like-much/

    It's strange how fellow EU members seem to have rather a lot of gold, ye we don't. See (1). Can anyone think of a reason why that might be? :innocent face:

    (1): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_reserve

    Iran has a lot, too. Although it won't have for long judging by that picture, because somebody's loading it into the back of that white pickup truck ready to run off with it.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,469

    Off-topic:

    How much gold is there in the world?

    http://www.gizmodo.co.uk/2014/02/this-is-what-all-the-gold-in-the-world-looks-like-and-it-doesnt-look-like-much/

    It's strange how fellow EU members seem to have rather a lot of gold, ye we don't. See (1). Can anyone think of a reason why that might be? :innocent face:

    (1): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_reserve

    Iran has a lot, too. Although it won't have for long judging by that picture, because somebody's loading it into the back of that white pickup truck ready to run off with it.
    I doubt they'll get much more in before the rear suspension hits the stops. ;-)
  • Off-topic:

    How much gold is there in the world?

    http://www.gizmodo.co.uk/2014/02/this-is-what-all-the-gold-in-the-world-looks-like-and-it-doesnt-look-like-much/

    It's strange how fellow EU members seem to have rather a lot of gold, ye we don't. See (1). Can anyone think of a reason why that might be? :innocent face:

    (1): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_reserve

    Is it because George Osborne has not listened to the gold bugs' demands to buy it all back?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,709
    Isn't it also noteworthy that 32% of UKIP's support comes from "Others & DNV". I suppose some might be ex-BNP voters, but given the scale of their national support, I would surmise that DNV's provide a large proportion of that 32%.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,469

    Off-topic:

    How much gold is there in the world?

    http://www.gizmodo.co.uk/2014/02/this-is-what-all-the-gold-in-the-world-looks-like-and-it-doesnt-look-like-much/

    It's strange how fellow EU members seem to have rather a lot of gold, ye we don't. See (1). Can anyone think of a reason why that might be? :innocent face:

    (1): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_reserve

    Is it because George Osborne has not listened to the gold bugs' demands to buy it all back?
    That's a bit like blaming a doctor who fails to save a patient who has been shot.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    RobD said:

    From this selection of charts I surmise that the LDs currently have no supporters worth mentioning!

    Or perhaps there has been no discernable ‘churning’ since 2010 worth mentioning – as if..!
    Or as I surmise, and it looks as if Ashcroft agrees with me, the L/D's, if not exactly in meltdown are going to suffer irreversable losses.
  • Isn't it also noteworthy that 32% of UKIP's support comes from "Others & DNV". I suppose some might be ex-BNP voters, but given the scale of their national support, I would surmise that DNV's provide a large proportion of that 32%.

    This was seen in the Alan Bown funded constituency polling before Christmas. Quite a lot of UKIP support does come from DNV's which suggests that they are less solid tham those who did vote
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,016

    Isn't it also noteworthy that 32% of UKIP's support comes from "Others & DNV". I suppose some might be ex-BNP voters, but given the scale of their national support, I would surmise that DNV's provide a large proportion of that 32%.

    Quite. DNV and will not vote. Their support is overstated.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    And here is that great liberal, President Obama, playing the race card.
    It really is sick-making.
    http://downtrend.com/robertgehl/obama-my-poll-numbers-are-down-because-im-black/
  • MikeK said:

    RobD said:

    From this selection of charts I surmise that the LDs currently have no supporters worth mentioning!

    Or perhaps there has been no discernable ‘churning’ since 2010 worth mentioning – as if..!
    Or as I surmise, and it looks as if Ashcroft agrees with me, the L/D's, if not exactly in meltdown are going to suffer irreversable losses.
    There is a huge difference between getting national vote shares and seats. The latter matters much more as UKIP will find on May 7 2015.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,709
    DavidL said:

    Isn't it also noteworthy that 32% of UKIP's support comes from "Others & DNV". I suppose some might be ex-BNP voters, but given the scale of their national support, I would surmise that DNV's provide a large proportion of that 32%.

    Quite. DNV and will not vote. Their support is overstated.

    Not sure about that. Maybe some NOTA's have found what they think is a home!
  • MikeK said:

    And here is that great liberal, President Obama, playing the race card.
    It really is sick-making.
    http://downtrend.com/robertgehl/obama-my-poll-numbers-are-down-because-im-black/

    You seem to have missed a crucial part.

    “There’s no doubt that there’s some folks who just really dislike me because they don’t like the idea of a black president,” Obama said in the article by David Remnick, appearing in the magazine’s Jan. 27 edition. “Now, the flip side of it is there are some black folks and maybe some white folks who really like me and give me the benefit of the doubt precisely because I’m a black president.”
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,016

    DavidL said:

    Isn't it also noteworthy that 32% of UKIP's support comes from "Others & DNV". I suppose some might be ex-BNP voters, but given the scale of their national support, I would surmise that DNV's provide a large proportion of that 32%.

    Quite. DNV and will not vote. Their support is overstated.

    Not sure about that. Maybe some NOTA's have found what they think is a home!
    Oh some will. Those totally opposed to EU membership have been disenfranchised at most UK elections. But there are very good reasons why polling companies weight down those who have not voted at the last election. Odds are they will not vote at the next one either.
  • DavidL said:

    Isn't it also noteworthy that 32% of UKIP's support comes from "Others & DNV". I suppose some might be ex-BNP voters, but given the scale of their national support, I would surmise that DNV's provide a large proportion of that 32%.

    Quite. DNV and will not vote. Their support is overstated.

    And people wonder why we do not have compulsory voting. Cui bono?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    MikeK said:

    RobD said:

    From this selection of charts I surmise that the LDs currently have no supporters worth mentioning!

    Or perhaps there has been no discernable ‘churning’ since 2010 worth mentioning – as if..!
    Or as I surmise, and it looks as if Ashcroft agrees with me, the L/D's, if not exactly in meltdown are going to suffer irreversable losses.
    There is a huge difference between getting national vote shares and seats. The latter matters much more as UKIP will find on May 7 2015.

    What is your opinion as to vote share/seats for Ukip at the general election ?
  • Off-topic:

    How much gold is there in the world?

    http://www.gizmodo.co.uk/2014/02/this-is-what-all-the-gold-in-the-world-looks-like-and-it-doesnt-look-like-much/

    It's strange how fellow EU members seem to have rather a lot of gold, ye we don't. See (1). Can anyone think of a reason why that might be? :innocent face:

    (1): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_reserve

    Is it because George Osborne has not listened to the gold bugs' demands to buy it all back?
    That's a bit like blaming a doctor who fails to save a patient who has been shot.
    It's a bit more like suggesting the doctor agrees with the original diagnosis.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,016

    DavidL said:

    Isn't it also noteworthy that 32% of UKIP's support comes from "Others & DNV". I suppose some might be ex-BNP voters, but given the scale of their national support, I would surmise that DNV's provide a large proportion of that 32%.

    Quite. DNV and will not vote. Their support is overstated.

    And people wonder why we do not have compulsory voting. Cui bono?
    The rich, the smug and the old. It was ever thus.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    Isn't it also noteworthy that 32% of UKIP's support comes from "Others & DNV". I suppose some might be ex-BNP voters, but given the scale of their national support, I would surmise that DNV's provide a large proportion of that 32%.

    This was seen in the Alan Bown funded constituency polling before Christmas. Quite a lot of UKIP support does come from DNV's which suggests that they are less solid tham those who did vote
    Or perhaps the DNV's, who were so disgusted by the Lab/Lib/Con parties, are now returning to the ballot box via UKIP.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Derby firm Bombardier win the £1bn contract to supply London Crossrail trains :

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26063121
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,469
    JackW said:

    Derby firm Bombardier win the £1bn contract to supply London Crossrail trains :

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26063121

    Great news for Derby, our last 'real' railway works (let's not count Hitachi's planned assembly plant). 74% of the contract cost will stay in the UK economy.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,016
    My guesses at the moment for the next election for UKIP is 8% and zero seats, a significant increase in votes but no breakthrough.

    My guesses for the Lib Dems are 16% and around 35 seats, similar to Mr Dale yesterday. 16% would mean that they had lost approximately a third of their support from the previous election. That will not just hurt where they did not have a chance anyway. It will hurt everywhere.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,469

    Off-topic:

    How much gold is there in the world?

    http://www.gizmodo.co.uk/2014/02/this-is-what-all-the-gold-in-the-world-looks-like-and-it-doesnt-look-like-much/

    It's strange how fellow EU members seem to have rather a lot of gold, ye we don't. See (1). Can anyone think of a reason why that might be? :innocent face:

    (1): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_reserve

    Is it because George Osborne has not listened to the gold bugs' demands to buy it all back?
    That's a bit like blaming a doctor who fails to save a patient who has been shot.
    It's a bit more like suggesting the doctor agrees with the original diagnosis.
    And what would he have bought the gold back with? "There's no money left."

    I stick with my original analogy: Brown show the patient, and you're blaming the doctor.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    edited February 2014

    Isn't it also noteworthy that 32% of UKIP's support comes from "Others & DNV". I suppose some might be ex-BNP voters, but given the scale of their national support, I would surmise that DNV's provide a large proportion of that 32%.

    This was seen in the Alan Bown funded constituency polling before Christmas. Quite a lot of UKIP support does come from DNV's which suggests that they are less solid tham those who did vote
    Given the DNVs are nearly as big as 2010 LDs in Labour. Miliband also has a soft underbelly. This is where Labour is most likely to lose share and drop below 35%.
  • Off-topic:

    How much gold is there in the world?

    http://www.gizmodo.co.uk/2014/02/this-is-what-all-the-gold-in-the-world-looks-like-and-it-doesnt-look-like-much/

    It's strange how fellow EU members seem to have rather a lot of gold, ye we don't. See (1). Can anyone think of a reason why that might be? :innocent face:

    (1): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_reserve

    Is it because George Osborne has not listened to the gold bugs' demands to buy it all back?
    That's a bit like blaming a doctor who fails to save a patient who has been shot.
    It's a bit more like suggesting the doctor agrees with the original diagnosis.
    And what would he have bought the gold back with? "There's no money left."

    I stick with my original analogy: Brown show the patient, and you're blaming the doctor.
    You must have missed Osborne's record borrowing and the spending on quantitative easing. If he'd wanted to buy gold, he could have done.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,016

    Isn't it also noteworthy that 32% of UKIP's support comes from "Others & DNV". I suppose some might be ex-BNP voters, but given the scale of their national support, I would surmise that DNV's provide a large proportion of that 32%.

    This was seen in the Alan Bown funded constituency polling before Christmas. Quite a lot of UKIP support does come from DNV's which suggests that they are less solid tham those who did vote
    Given the DNVs are nearly as big as 2010 LDs in Labour miliband also has a soft underbelly. This is where Labour is most likely to lose share and drop below 35%.
    Also 3-5% worth the Lib Dems returning home. I am quite jealous of Mike's tories most votes, Labour most seats bet. It seems to me a highly likely outcome.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    Off-topic:

    How much gold is there in the world?

    http://www.gizmodo.co.uk/2014/02/this-is-what-all-the-gold-in-the-world-looks-like-and-it-doesnt-look-like-much/

    It's strange how fellow EU members seem to have rather a lot of gold, ye we don't. See (1). Can anyone think of a reason why that might be? :innocent face:

    (1): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_reserve

    Is it because George Osborne has not listened to the gold bugs' demands to buy it all back?
    That's a bit like blaming a doctor who fails to save a patient who has been shot.
    It's a bit more like suggesting the doctor agrees with the original diagnosis.
    And what would he have bought the gold back with? "There's no money left."

    I stick with my original analogy: Brown show the patient, and you're blaming the doctor.
    You must have missed Osborne's record borrowing and the spending on quantitative easing. If he'd wanted to buy gold, he could have done.
    Why would you want to get in to more debt to purchase a non-productive asset ?

    Can any Labourite do economics ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410

    Off-topic:

    How much gold is there in the world?

    http://www.gizmodo.co.uk/2014/02/this-is-what-all-the-gold-in-the-world-looks-like-and-it-doesnt-look-like-much/

    It's strange how fellow EU members seem to have rather a lot of gold, ye we don't. See (1). Can anyone think of a reason why that might be? :innocent face:

    (1): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_reserve

    Is it because George Osborne has not listened to the gold bugs' demands to buy it all back?
    That's a bit like blaming a doctor who fails to save a patient who has been shot.
    It's a bit more like suggesting the doctor agrees with the original diagnosis.
    And what would he have bought the gold back with? "There's no money left."

    I stick with my original analogy: Brown show the patient, and you're blaming the doctor.
    You must have missed Osborne's record borrowing and the spending on quantitative easing. If he'd wanted to buy gold, he could have done.
    Why would you want to get in to more debt to purchase a non-productive asset ?

    Can any Labourite do economics ?
    I'm no fan of Brown, but you can make an equivalent argument that him selling the gold was the correct move. ;)

  • Isn't it also noteworthy that 32% of UKIP's support comes from "Others & DNV". I suppose some might be ex-BNP voters, but given the scale of their national support, I would surmise that DNV's provide a large proportion of that 32%.

    This was seen in the Alan Bown funded constituency polling before Christmas. Quite a lot of UKIP support does come from DNV's which suggests that they are less solid tham those who did vote
    Given the DNVs are nearly as big as 2010 LDs in Labour. Miliband also has a soft underbelly. This is where Labour is most likely to lose share and drop below 35%.
    I'm sure there are a number of voters who think of themselves as lefties but are really millenarians, wanting the Government to bring in Heaven by the middle of next week. A goodly proportion of them will go to vote to turf a Tory or Tory-led government out, but not otherwise.
  • So, statistically speaking, still virtually zero switchers from the main governing party to the official opposition (Con-Lab) and the rest of the boost made up of Lib Dems and Oth/Dnv.

    I don't know what makes up the Oth/Dnv category but it's interesting that they make up 16% of Lab support compared to 9% of Con. Let's say some of that flaked and went down to a similar level to the Cons, say 10% - Labour would drop in the polls by 2% overnight.

    Whatever you look at it, this doesn't look like compelling election winning data for Labour.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    DavidL said:

    Isn't it also noteworthy that 32% of UKIP's support comes from "Others & DNV". I suppose some might be ex-BNP voters, but given the scale of their national support, I would surmise that DNV's provide a large proportion of that 32%.

    This was seen in the Alan Bown funded constituency polling before Christmas. Quite a lot of UKIP support does come from DNV's which suggests that they are less solid tham those who did vote
    Given the DNVs are nearly as big as 2010 LDs in Labour miliband also has a soft underbelly. This is where Labour is most likely to lose share and drop below 35%.
    Also 3-5% worth the Lib Dems returning home. I am quite jealous of Mike's tories most votes, Labour most seats bet. It seems to me a highly likely outcome.

    Well yes, using my big Benson and Hedges calculator. If you look at the snippets we have and start with Con 33, Lab 38, UKIP 14.

    The Con vote hasn't much to lose - Maybe some of the DNV so say 2%, Lab could lose 2% 2010 LDs and 3% to DNV. UKIP could lose 3% to Con ( survey said a third of their support would vote blue to stop Ed ) plus maybe 5% on DNVs. So allowing for a new base we could have Con 35-37, Lab 33-34. UKIP 6-8%. That's a HP, Cons most votes, Lab most seats.

    The mix will be driven mostly by how well the LDs fair since a high LD vote means less tory seats and vice versa, as well as how serious those DNVs are about getting off their butts and voting.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,469

    Off-topic:

    How much gold is there in the world?

    http://www.gizmodo.co.uk/2014/02/this-is-what-all-the-gold-in-the-world-looks-like-and-it-doesnt-look-like-much/

    It's strange how fellow EU members seem to have rather a lot of gold, ye we don't. See (1). Can anyone think of a reason why that might be? :innocent face:

    (1): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_reserve

    Is it because George Osborne has not listened to the gold bugs' demands to buy it all back?
    That's a bit like blaming a doctor who fails to save a patient who has been shot.
    It's a bit more like suggesting the doctor agrees with the original diagnosis.
    And what would he have bought the gold back with? "There's no money left."

    I stick with my original analogy: Brown show the patient, and you're blaming the doctor.
    You must have missed Osborne's record borrowing and the spending on quantitative easing. If he'd wanted to buy gold, he could have done.
    He could have done many things. Thankfully he's more intelligent than to attempt what you propose above.

    It's fairly clear that Labour are that stupid. Labour's mantra appears to be: short-term gain for long-term pain; i.e. elect us and **** the future.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    FPT: Mr. Charles, that's interesting stuff about salmon. It's true certain things (vitamin K, I think, is another) are hard to get through vegetarianism, but it is possible to be one.

    Wealth was associated with eating meat and fish (perhaps excepting areas in the vicinity of abundant fish stocks) in medieval times too. Interesting how that appears to still be the case, on the global stage, at least.
  • Neither the Conservatives nor Labour have so far won any significant support from the other. Traditional swing voters are dying out, it seems.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    0.62*1880 =1165
    0.82*1443 =1183

    These graphs are good but better yet would be to have them in size proportion ;)
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Interesting that both Labour and UKIP shares come from people who don't actually vote. The pie charts show the Tories have retained 20% more of its 2010 vote than Labour has during 3 years of media criticism and people think Labour will win! These charts imply much of the current polling is total froth. UKIP may do well at the Euros because so few people vote and most that do think the Euro elections are less important than their parish council elections. GE2015 will be very different, especially if Scotland is taken out of the equation.
  • Given many Labour voters went on strike in 2010, I'm slightly surprised at the relatively low "Did not vote" in their current support - of course, some of the 2010 vote strikers may be reporting themselves as voters......I also wonder how many of the UKIP "did not vote" are historical Labour voters?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,016

    DavidL said:

    Isn't it also noteworthy that 32% of UKIP's support comes from "Others & DNV". I suppose some might be ex-BNP voters, but given the scale of their national support, I would surmise that DNV's provide a large proportion of that 32%.

    This was seen in the Alan Bown funded constituency polling before Christmas. Quite a lot of UKIP support does come from DNV's which suggests that they are less solid tham those who did vote
    Given the DNVs are nearly as big as 2010 LDs in Labour miliband also has a soft underbelly. This is where Labour is most likely to lose share and drop below 35%.
    Also 3-5% worth the Lib Dems returning home. I am quite jealous of Mike's tories most votes, Labour most seats bet. It seems to me a highly likely outcome.

    Well yes, using my big Benson and Hedges calculator. If you look at the snippets we have and start with Con 33, Lab 38, UKIP 14.

    The Con vote hasn't much to lose - Maybe some of the DNV so say 2%, Lab could lose 2% 2010 LDs and 3% to DNV. UKIP could lose 3% to Con ( survey said a third of their support would vote blue to stop Ed ) plus maybe 5% on DNVs. So allowing for a new base we could have Con 35-37, Lab 33-34. UKIP 6-8%. That's a HP, Cons most votes, Lab most seats.

    The mix will be driven mostly by how well the LDs fair since a high LD vote means less tory seats and vice versa, as well as how serious those DNVs are about getting off their butts and voting.
    The first part seems about right. Not sure about the second part because it depends where the higher Lib Dem vote comes from and where it is. If 3-5% worth of the 2010 Lib Dems go home as I was suggesting then Labour will be more like 31-32%. Much of that loss will be current Labour supporters voting tactically to keep tories out as they did the last time but some will be where it matters to them.

    This is going to be an interesting election.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,469
    Pulpstar said:

    Off-topic:

    How much gold is there in the world?

    http://www.gizmodo.co.uk/2014/02/this-is-what-all-the-gold-in-the-world-looks-like-and-it-doesnt-look-like-much/

    It's strange how fellow EU members seem to have rather a lot of gold, ye we don't. See (1). Can anyone think of a reason why that might be? :innocent face:

    (1): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_reserve

    Is it because George Osborne has not listened to the gold bugs' demands to buy it all back?
    That's a bit like blaming a doctor who fails to save a patient who has been shot.
    It's a bit more like suggesting the doctor agrees with the original diagnosis.
    And what would he have bought the gold back with? "There's no money left."

    I stick with my original analogy: Brown show the patient, and you're blaming the doctor.
    You must have missed Osborne's record borrowing and the spending on quantitative easing. If he'd wanted to buy gold, he could have done.
    Why would you want to get in to more debt to purchase a non-productive asset ?

    Can any Labourite do economics ?
    I'm no fan of Brown, but you can make an equivalent argument that him selling the gold was the correct move. ;)

    Urrrm, pre-announcing the sale wasn't exactly clever was it, or selling such large amounts?

    The selling-at-the-bottom argument is the weakest; he may have been stupid enough to think the price was to go down massively. But the other arguments: the sizes of the tranches sold, the short timescale and the pre-announcements, are fairly indefensible.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Pulpstar said:

    Off-topic:

    How much gold is there in the world?

    http://www.gizmodo.co.uk/2014/02/this-is-what-all-the-gold-in-the-world-looks-like-and-it-doesnt-look-like-much/

    It's strange how fellow EU members seem to have rather a lot of gold, ye we don't. See (1). Can anyone think of a reason why that might be? :innocent face:

    (1): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_reserve

    Is it because George Osborne has not listened to the gold bugs' demands to buy it all back?
    That's a bit like blaming a doctor who fails to save a patient who has been shot.
    It's a bit more like suggesting the doctor agrees with the original diagnosis.
    And what would he have bought the gold back with? "There's no money left."

    I stick with my original analogy: Brown show the patient, and you're blaming the doctor.
    You must have missed Osborne's record borrowing and the spending on quantitative easing. If he'd wanted to buy gold, he could have done.
    Why would you want to get in to more debt to purchase a non-productive asset ?

    Can any Labourite do economics ?
    I'm no fan of Brown, but you can make an equivalent argument that him selling the gold was the correct move. ;)

    I'm not sure how. He sold an asset at rock bottom having trailblazed he was going to sell so that buyers knew the commodity market had a huge glut hung over it. Even the Soviet Union didn't do that, they simply dribbled gold or diamonds out at top price to maximise the take.

    Furthermore since gold is a volatile reserve common sense would say that in a time of crisis it's value will shoot up so selling at a time of peace and prosperity would be a bad time to sell.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    JackW said:

    Derby firm Bombardier win the £1bn contract to supply London Crossrail trains :

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26063121

    Great news - British jobs and all that :D

  • Interesting that both Labour and UKIP shares come from people who don't actually vote. The pie charts show the Tories have retained 20% more of its 2010 vote than Labour has during 3 years of media criticism and people think Labour will win! These charts imply much of the current polling is total froth. UKIP may do well at the Euros because so few people vote and most that do think the Euro elections are less important than their parish council elections. GE2015 will be very different, especially if Scotland is taken out of the equation.

    You are reading the data wrongly in making that assertion. CON has retained 72% of its 2010 support while LAB is keeping 87%. See page 10 of this PDF

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Blueprint-4-Full-tables.pdf
  • Interesting that both Labour and UKIP shares come from people who don't actually vote. The pie charts show the Tories have retained 20% more of its 2010 vote than Labour has during 3 years of media criticism and people think Labour will win! These charts imply much of the current polling is total froth. UKIP may do well at the Euros because so few people vote and most that do think the Euro elections are less important than their parish council elections. GE2015 will be very different, especially if Scotland is taken out of the equation.

    You're misunderstanding the charts. What they are showing is where current support came from. Since Labour is polling well ahead of its 2010 result, its support will inevitably comprise substantial percentages who were not 2010 Labour voters. That 62% figure is a sign of that progress for Labour.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Off-topic:

    How much gold is there in the world?

    http://www.gizmodo.co.uk/2014/02/this-is-what-all-the-gold-in-the-world-looks-like-and-it-doesnt-look-like-much/

    It's strange how fellow EU members seem to have rather a lot of gold, ye we don't. See (1). Can anyone think of a reason why that might be? :innocent face:

    (1): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_reserve

    Is it because George Osborne has not listened to the gold bugs' demands to buy it all back?
    That's a bit like blaming a doctor who fails to save a patient who has been shot.
    It's a bit more like suggesting the doctor agrees with the original diagnosis.
    And what would he have bought the gold back with? "There's no money left."

    I stick with my original analogy: Brown show the patient, and you're blaming the doctor.
    You must have missed Osborne's record borrowing and the spending on quantitative easing. If he'd wanted to buy gold, he could have done.
    Why would you want to get in to more debt to purchase a non-productive asset ?

    Can any Labourite do economics ?
    I'm no fan of Brown, but you can make an equivalent argument that him selling the gold was the correct move. ;)

    I'm not sure how. He sold an asset at rock bottom having trailblazed he was going to sell so that buyers knew the commodity market had a huge glut hung over it. Even the Soviet Union didn't do that, they simply dribbled gold or diamonds out at top price to maximise the take.

    Furthermore since gold is a volatile reserve common sense would say that in a time of crisis it's value will shoot up so selling at a time of peace and prosperity would be a bad time to sell.
    One problem with gold is there in your last paragraph: volatility.

    But for conspiracy theory fans, how about Gordon Brown was actually bailing out the banks?
    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/thomaspascoe/100018367/

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,016
    edited February 2014
    Concern is growing that Osborne's policy of hammering his rich pals to reduce the deficit has long term sustainability issues: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/consumertips/tax/10620555/UK-tax-system-is-punishing-success-says-Institute-for-Fiscal-Studies.html

    The disconnect between reality and the general perception built on the cut to 45% for the additional rate is severe and it is important that the government is more successful in getting this across. It won't be easy because they are fighting against very well entrenched (if completely false) stereotypes.
  • Interesting that both Labour and UKIP shares come from people who don't actually vote. The pie charts show the Tories have retained 20% more of its 2010 vote than Labour has during 3 years of media criticism and people think Labour will win! These charts imply much of the current polling is total froth. UKIP may do well at the Euros because so few people vote and most that do think the Euro elections are less important than their parish council elections. GE2015 will be very different, especially if Scotland is taken out of the equation.

    No, the Tories haven't retained 20% more of their 2010 vote than Labour. All the Tories have done is to limit their current support mainly to those who voted Conservative in 2010. Whereas Labour has now broadened their support, particularly in capturing a significant chunk of 2010 Lib Dems, which means that the % of their support that comes from 2010 Lab must then fall.

    To find the comparison you are trying to make, you can just look at any daily YouGov polling table, and you'll find that Lab is consistently doing better than Con in retaining its 2010 voters, with a significant chunk of 2010 Con having switched to UKIP. Here's today's table, look at the 6th and 7th columns.
    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/5avz4dp2zr/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-050214.pdf
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    If George is as clever as the unfairly exiled ALP suggests, his best approach may be stealth tax cuts. The rich are clever enough to understand these but the popular press less so. For example ending dividend withdrawal tax paid by companies, restoring taper relief on capital gains, extending capital allowances, increasing the bounds of entrepeneurs relief or restoring personal allowances to all tax payers.

    DavidL said:

    Concern is growing that Osborne's policy of hammering his rich pals to reduce the deficit has long term sustainability issues: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/consumertips/tax/10620555/UK-tax-system-is-punishing-success-says-Institute-for-Fiscal-Studies.html

    The disconnect between reality and the general perception built on the cut to 45% for the additional rate is severe and it is important that the government is more successful in getting this across. It won't be easy because they are fighting against very well entrenched (if completley false) stereotypes.

  • Off-topic:

    How much gold is there in the world?

    http://www.gizmodo.co.uk/2014/02/this-is-what-all-the-gold-in-the-world-looks-like-and-it-doesnt-look-like-much/

    It's strange how fellow EU members seem to have rather a lot of gold, ye we don't. See (1). Can anyone think of a reason why that might be? :innocent face:

    (1): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_reserve

    Iran has a lot, too. Although it won't have for long judging by that picture, because somebody's loading it into the back of that white pickup truck ready to run off with it.
    I doubt they'll get much more in before the rear suspension hits the stops. ;-)
    That's because they'd be using the wrong motor. I believe a 1935 3.5 litre Bentley is more traditional for that sort of thing.
  • @Wulfrun_Phil The YouGov retention figures are presented in very confusing way. Best to use other pollsters.
  • Big boost for EdM in YouGov's "Best PM" ratings.
    Was DC 36 EdM 23. Today's poll DC 36 EDM 27
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,016

    If George is as clever as the unfairly exiled ALP suggests, his best approach may be stealth tax cuts. The rich are clever enough to understand these but the popular press less so. For example ending dividend withdrawal tax paid by companies, restoring taper relief on capital gains, extending capital allowances, increasing the bounds of entrepeneurs relief or restoring personal allowances to all tax payers.



    DavidL said:

    Concern is growing that Osborne's policy of hammering his rich pals to reduce the deficit has long term sustainability issues: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/consumertips/tax/10620555/UK-tax-system-is-punishing-success-says-Institute-for-Fiscal-Studies.html

    The disconnect between reality and the general perception built on the cut to 45% for the additional rate is severe and it is important that the government is more successful in getting this across. It won't be easy because they are fighting against very well entrenched (if completley false) stereotypes.

    I will greatly miss his contributions but ALP seems to have exiled himself.

    Stealth tax cuts will be for the next Parliament at best. Right now George needs the money. There is my bet with Tim to consider for a start.

  • Isn't it also noteworthy that 32% of UKIP's support comes from "Others & DNV". I suppose some might be ex-BNP voters, but given the scale of their national support, I would surmise that DNV's provide a large proportion of that 32%.

    Don't forget that UKIP's own 2010 vote will be within that "Others & DNV" category. I've not checked the figures but I think it should account for a little more than half of it.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Big boost for EdM in YouGov's "Best PM" ratings.
    Was DC 36 EdM 23. Today's poll DC 36 EDM 27

    I think that's what us folk with a worldwide reputation in political forecasting refer to as :

    Recently Deceased Feline Temporary Upward Movement

  • antifrank said:

    Neither the Conservatives nor Labour have so far won any significant support from the other. Traditional swing voters are dying out, it seems.

    No, they're just as present as ever. They're just behaving differently. I shall go into further details at the weekend.
  • Oh, Mr. Herdson, you tease us so!
  • Pulpstar said:

    Off-topic:

    How much gold is there in the world?

    http://www.gizmodo.co.uk/2014/02/this-is-what-all-the-gold-in-the-world-looks-like-and-it-doesnt-look-like-much/

    It's strange how fellow EU members seem to have rather a lot of gold, ye we don't. See (1). Can anyone think of a reason why that might be? :innocent face:

    (1): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_reserve

    Is it because George Osborne has not listened to the gold bugs' demands to buy it all back?
    That's a bit like blaming a doctor who fails to save a patient who has been shot.
    It's a bit more like suggesting the doctor agrees with the original diagnosis.
    And what would he have bought the gold back with? "There's no money left."

    I stick with my original analogy: Brown show the patient, and you're blaming the doctor.
    You must have missed Osborne's record borrowing and the spending on quantitative easing. If he'd wanted to buy gold, he could have done.
    Why would you want to get in to more debt to purchase a non-productive asset ?

    Can any Labourite do economics ?
    I'm no fan of Brown, but you can make an equivalent argument that him selling the gold was the correct move. ;)

    I'm not sure how. He sold an asset at rock bottom having trailblazed he was going to sell so that buyers knew the commodity market had a huge glut hung over it. Even the Soviet Union didn't do that, they simply dribbled gold or diamonds out at top price to maximise the take.

    Furthermore since gold is a volatile reserve common sense would say that in a time of crisis it's value will shoot up so selling at a time of peace and prosperity would be a bad time to sell.
    One problem with gold is there in your last paragraph: volatility.

    I thought gold was about as inert as it gets?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    antifrank said:

    Neither the Conservatives nor Labour have so far won any significant support from the other. Traditional swing voters are dying out, it seems.

    No, they're just as present as ever. They're just behaving differently. I shall go into further details at the weekend.
    Something for the weekend Sir ? ....

    Herders flashing a shapely ankle as PBers gawp in fevered anticipation ....

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,566
    An Ashcroft or other study of 2010 non-voters would be interesting (what is the split between "other" and DNV in the charts?). For once a focus group approach might be helpful - exploring why they didn't vote - too busy, disliked the options, not interested, or what.

    FWIW - and this is a sort of anecdotal focus group, my impression is this. UKIP ex-DNVs are generally detached from the political process as they think we're all crap. They feel "At last there's a sensible party out there with a chance, I'll vote for them". These people are not going to switch to any other party. However, if UKIP started to deflate they might well say "Oh, looks like they haven't got a chance after all, I won't bother". A good or bad Euro showing will make a lot of difference. If half of those don't vote, it'll knock just over 1 point off the UKIP score.

    Labour DNVs are roughly half people who are quite political but judged that we'd been in power long enough, yet couldn't bear voting Tory. They are back with a vengeance and will vote. The other half are semi-detached traditional Labour and it's much less certain that they'll vote. If half of these don't, it would knock 1.5 points off the Labour score. They are however concentrated in Labour strongholds - in marginals, I think we'll generally get them out. The upcoming by-election may give a hint of what will happen in the strongholds.
  • Big boost for EdM in YouGov's "Best PM" ratings.
    Was DC 36 EdM 23. Today's poll DC 36 EDM 27

    Margin of error stuff, surely. More pertinent (and someone on here will know, that's for sure!) - has a governing Party ever lost an election despite having the least unpopular leader?

  • Big boost for EdM in YouGov's "Best PM" ratings.
    Was DC 36 EdM 23. Today's poll DC 36 EDM 27

    Ed also had an uptick in his YouGov attributes yesterday while Dave softened. So that's two MOE coincidences then,.....
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,469

    Pulpstar said:



    Why would you want to get in to more debt to purchase a non-productive asset ?

    Can any Labourite do economics ?

    I'm no fan of Brown, but you can make an equivalent argument that him selling the gold was the correct move. ;)

    I'm not sure how. He sold an asset at rock bottom having trailblazed he was going to sell so that buyers knew the commodity market had a huge glut hung over it. Even the Soviet Union didn't do that, they simply dribbled gold or diamonds out at top price to maximise the take.

    Furthermore since gold is a volatile reserve common sense would say that in a time of crisis it's value will shoot up so selling at a time of peace and prosperity would be a bad time to sell.
    One problem with gold is there in your last paragraph: volatility.

    But for conspiracy theory fans, how about Gordon Brown was actually bailing out the banks?
    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/thomaspascoe/100018367/

    That old chestnut. If you believe it, then there are further questions:
    1) Was it right to do it in secret? Surely there should be some debate about such a drastic problem. After all, we live in a democracy.
    2) With hindsight, a big banking scandal in that timeframe might have saved us a great deal of pain seven years later by forcing some necessary changes. Might it have been cheaper and more effective to let a bank fail?
    3) Was selling gold the right way to tackle the problem?
    4) Were the banks being truthful about the scale of the problem? By keeping things secret, we cannot know if they were taking the government for a ride.
    5) If Brown knew that some banks were getting into such bad positions that early on, then why did he not tighten things up before the big crash?

    Even that conspiracy theory does not leave Brown without brown stuff on his hands.
  • ...

    FWIW - and this is a sort of anecdotal focus group, my impression is this. UKIP ex-DNVs are generally detached from the political process as they think we're all crap. They feel "At last there's a sensible party out there with a chance, I'll vote for them". These people are not going to switch to any other party. However, if UKIP started to deflate they might well say "Oh, looks like they haven't got a chance after all, I won't bother". A good or bad Euro showing will make a lot of difference. If half of those don't vote, it'll knock just over 1 point off the UKIP score.

    ...

    I don't think that whether UKIP 'stands a chance' will make a great deal of difference with their current voters. It might make a difference if they thought their vote mattered and one of Con/Lab was a wholly unacceptable option and the other wasn't, but by and large that's not the case (i.e. two-horse-racing won't make much difference as things stand).

    As you say, these are people disillusioned with all the other parties. What will hit UKIP's support is not UKIP failing to look like it'll challenge for seats - these are 'send a message' voters - it's UKIP sounding like just another party (or not sounding like the sort of party they thought it was).
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Big boost for EdM in YouGov's "Best PM" ratings.
    Was DC 36 EdM 23. Today's poll DC 36 EDM 27

    Margin of error stuff, surely. More pertinent (and someone on here will know, that's for sure!) - has a governing Party ever lost an election despite having the least unpopular leader?

    Sunny Jim and Maggie in 79 springs to mind.

  • Big boost for EdM in YouGov's "Best PM" ratings.
    Was DC 36 EdM 23. Today's poll DC 36 EDM 27

    Margin of error stuff, surely. More pertinent (and someone on here will know, that's for sure!) - has a governing Party ever lost an election despite having the least unpopular leader?

    23 to 27 is not MOE

  • JackW said:

    Big boost for EdM in YouGov's "Best PM" ratings.
    Was DC 36 EdM 23. Today's poll DC 36 EDM 27

    Margin of error stuff, surely. More pertinent (and someone on here will know, that's for sure!) - has a governing Party ever lost an election despite having the least unpopular leader?

    Sunny Jim and Maggie in 79 springs to mind.

    That must have hurt. I think you're right, but I'm not sure...

  • Big boost for EdM in YouGov's "Best PM" ratings.
    Was DC 36 EdM 23. Today's poll DC 36 EDM 27

    Margin of error stuff, surely. More pertinent (and someone on here will know, that's for sure!) - has a governing Party ever lost an election despite having the least unpopular leader?

    23 to 27 is not MOE

    It is if the actual figure is 25.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,469
    Off-topic:

    I had a weird engineering and flood related dream last night. There is a problem with rainwater flooding of the Somerset levels. There is a water shortage problem in the southeast.

    The dream posited using large parts of the levels as a natural rainwater reservoir, and a pipeline east to provide water to London and the SE. Farmers would be compensated by southeastern water customers, a certain amount per acre.

    The dream then morphed off into a pastiche of Waterworld for the levels' inhabitants.

    There are some obvious problems: both London and the levels are near sea level, and they are over 100 miles apart, and the resultant lakes would be wide and very shallow.

    But there is a precedent: Liverpool is supplied with water from Lake Vyrnwy 70 miles away, and Birmingham from the Elan Valley, 75 miles or so. But the area of the levels is vast, and can store a heck of a lot of water.
  • Big boost for EdM in YouGov's "Best PM" ratings.
    Was DC 36 EdM 23. Today's poll DC 36 EDM 27

    Margin of error stuff, surely. More pertinent (and someone on here will know, that's for sure!) - has a governing Party ever lost an election despite having the least unpopular leader?

    Callaghan?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    Big boost for EdM in YouGov's "Best PM" ratings.
    Was DC 36 EdM 23. Today's poll DC 36 EDM 27

    Margin of error stuff, surely. More pertinent (and someone on here will know, that's for sure!) - has a governing Party ever lost an election despite having the least unpopular leader?

    Sunny Jim and Maggie in 79 springs to mind.

    That must have hurt. I think you're right, but I'm not sure...

    I am sure.

    The last time I was wrong was in forecasting the Tories at 305 at the 2010 GE. Out by one - Disgraceful !! ....

    And we don't mention Watford ..... or as I now refer to it as a Hertfordshire constituency with a Championship football team with links to Elton John.
  • So, UKIP retained none of their 2010 support. Or are UKIP included in 'OTH & DNV' in the pie chart ?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,566



    That old chestnut. If you believe it, then there are further questions:
    1) Was it right to do it in secret? Surely there should be some debate about such a drastic problem. After all, we live in a democracy.
    2) With hindsight, a big banking scandal in that timeframe might have saved us a great deal of pain seven years later by forcing some necessary changes. Might it have been cheaper and more effective to let a bank fail?
    3) Was selling gold the right way to tackle the problem?
    4) Were the banks being truthful about the scale of the problem? By keeping things secret, we cannot know if they were taking the government for a ride.
    5) If Brown knew that some banks were getting into such bad positions that early on, then why did he not tighten things up before the big crash?

    Even that conspiracy theory does not leave Brown without brown stuff on his hands.

    The Economist pointed out a while back that Britain lost far more money by NOT selling the gold during 1979-97 than by selling it when we did. I agree the mechanics of the sale (not least pre-announcing it) were mishandled but the idea that we were better off indefinitely holding on to a pile of metal is misguided.

    In any case the argument is a bit dusty. I remember the then family stockbroker once ignored my orders and failed to sell some shares when I instructed him to ("I used my best judgment that it would be unwise just yet"), losing me quite a bit of money. I was in my 20s and living abroad and he'd handled my family's accounts for decades, so the idea of suing him didn't really enter my mind. Annoying, but I got over it. There comes a point where it's not worth worrying about historical transactions unless the people involved are still running things.

  • Interesting that both Labour and UKIP shares come from people who don't actually vote. The pie charts show the Tories have retained 20% more of its 2010 vote than Labour has during 3 years of media criticism and people think Labour will win! These charts imply much of the current polling is total froth. UKIP may do well at the Euros because so few people vote and most that do think the Euro elections are less important than their parish council elections. GE2015 will be very different, especially if Scotland is taken out of the equation.

    Have another look - you are wrong.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,566

    ...

    FWIW - and this is a sort of anecdotal focus group, my impression is this. UKIP ex-DNVs are generally detached from the political process as they think we're all crap. They feel "At last there's a sensible party out there with a chance, I'll vote for them". These people are not going to switch to any other party. However, if UKIP started to deflate they might well say "Oh, looks like they haven't got a chance after all, I won't bother". A good or bad Euro showing will make a lot of difference. If half of those don't vote, it'll knock just over 1 point off the UKIP score.

    ...

    I don't think that whether UKIP 'stands a chance' will make a great deal of difference with their current voters. It might make a difference if they thought their vote mattered and one of Con/Lab was a wholly unacceptable option and the other wasn't, but by and large that's not the case (i.e. two-horse-racing won't make much difference as things stand).

    As you say, these are people disillusioned with all the other parties. What will hit UKIP's support is not UKIP failing to look like it'll challenge for seats - these are 'send a message' voters - it's UKIP sounding like just another party (or not sounding like the sort of party they thought it was).
    Yes, I see what you mean. In that case, perhaps Farage shouldn't be trying to discourage his fruitloops so much?

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    1/6 of Labour support DNV last time - wouldn't want to be relying on that coming in.
  • TGOHF said:

    1/6 of Labour support DNV last time - wouldn't want to be relying on that coming in.

    That's OTHER and DNV @16%. The Tory figure is 9%.

    Narcissism of small differences, but whatever gets you through the night.



  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    Pulpstar said:

    Off-topic:

    How much gold is there in the world?

    http://www.gizmodo.co.uk/2014/02/this-is-what-all-the-gold-in-the-world-looks-like-and-it-doesnt-look-like-much/

    It's strange how fellow EU members seem to have rather a lot of gold, ye we don't. See (1). Can anyone think of a reason why that might be? :innocent face:

    (1): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_reserve

    Is it because George Osborne has not listened to the gold bugs' demands to buy it all back?
    That's a bit like blaming a doctor who fails to save a patient who has been shot.
    It's a bit more like suggesting the doctor agrees with the original diagnosis.
    And what would he have bought the gold back with? "There's no money left."

    I stick with my original analogy: Brown show the patient, and you're blaming the doctor.
    You must have missed Osborne's record borrowing and the spending on quantitative easing. If he'd wanted to buy gold, he could have done.
    Why would you want to get in to more debt to purchase a non-productive asset ?

    Can any Labourite do economics ?
    I'm no fan of Brown, but you can make an equivalent argument that him selling the gold was the correct move. ;)

    I'm not sure how. He sold an asset at rock bottom having trailblazed he was going to sell so that buyers knew the commodity market had a huge glut hung over it. Even the Soviet Union didn't do that, they simply dribbled gold or diamonds out at top price to maximise the take.

    Furthermore since gold is a volatile reserve common sense would say that in a time of crisis it's value will shoot up so selling at a time of peace and prosperity would be a bad time to sell.
    One problem with gold is there in your last paragraph: volatility.

    But for conspiracy theory fans, how about Gordon Brown was actually bailing out the banks?
    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/thomaspascoe/100018367/



    "One problem with gold is there in your last paragraph: volatility."

    when you're a big enough eejit to believe you have abolished boom and bust then why's volatility a problem ?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,469



    That old chestnut. If you believe it, then there are further questions:
    1) Was it right to do it in secret? Surely there should be some debate about such a drastic problem. After all, we live in a democracy.
    2) With hindsight, a big banking scandal in that timeframe might have saved us a great deal of pain seven years later by forcing some necessary changes. Might it have been cheaper and more effective to let a bank fail?
    3) Was selling gold the right way to tackle the problem?
    4) Were the banks being truthful about the scale of the problem? By keeping things secret, we cannot know if they were taking the government for a ride.
    5) If Brown knew that some banks were getting into such bad positions that early on, then why did he not tighten things up before the big crash?

    Even that conspiracy theory does not leave Brown without brown stuff on his hands.

    The Economist pointed out a while back that Britain lost far more money by NOT selling the gold during 1979-97 than by selling it when we did. I agree the mechanics of the sale (not least pre-announcing it) were mishandled but the idea that we were better off indefinitely holding on to a pile of metal is misguided.

    In any case the argument is a bit dusty. I remember the then family stockbroker once ignored my orders and failed to sell some shares when I instructed him to ("I used my best judgment that it would be unwise just yet"), losing me quite a bit of money. I was in my 20s and living abroad and he'd handled my family's accounts for decades, so the idea of suing him didn't really enter my mind. Annoying, but I got over it. There comes a point where it's not worth worrying about historical transactions unless the people involved are still running things.
    Considering Labour supporters are very keen to go back as far as Thatcher - and earlier - to show Conservative mistakes, I'm not sure you're on firm ground with this 'it's all in the past' argument.

    But it was 'ages ago', wasn't it? Which in your mind is seven weeks. ;-)

    And your comment does nothing to answer the questions above.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    1/6 of Labour support DNV last time - wouldn't want to be relying on that coming in.

    That's OTHER and DNV @16%. The Tory figure is 9%.

    Narcissism of small differences, but whatever gets you through the night.



    2-3% points in their vote difference.

    HUGE.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Meanwhile .... I'm orf for a lie down ....

    Some idiot mentioned the "Watford" word and I've come over all unnecessary ....
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    edited February 2014
    Sorry to see Mr Pole has gone in to self imposed exile.

    However since I believe he has now recognised he has lost all the economic arguments to another Richard it was inevitable he would have to go in to hiding for a while.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Big boost for EdM in YouGov's "Best PM" ratings.
    Was DC 36 EdM 23. Today's poll DC 36 EDM 27

    Margin of error stuff, surely. More pertinent (and someone on here will know, that's for sure!) - has a governing Party ever lost an election despite having the least unpopular leader?

    23 to 27 is not MOE

    It is if the actual figure is 25.
    They have done a good job keeping Ed off the telly recently...
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    I suppose a zero policy scattergun is better ?

    Maybe as a PPC you could give us a steer on Labour Policy.
  • DavidL said:

    Concern is growing that Osborne's policy of hammering his rich pals to reduce the deficit has long term sustainability issues: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/consumertips/tax/10620555/UK-tax-system-is-punishing-success-says-Institute-for-Fiscal-Studies.html

    The disconnect between reality and the general perception built on the cut to 45% for the additional rate is severe and it is important that the government is more successful in getting this across. It won't be easy because they are fighting against very well entrenched (if completely false) stereotypes.

    Surely the key phrase there is "long-term". Currently, the wealthiest are in a very good place. Property prices up, income tax down, tax on dividends down, interest rates rock bottom, the markets (until this week) booming, bonuses and commissions back - and big. The overall package is very pleasant. The key thing is the economy - if that continues to grow, at some stage everyone can get tax cuts. But right now, we are not in that position. And the first priority for cuts - when they come - must be for those on middle and low incomes.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    edited February 2014
    TGOHF said:

    1/6 of Labour support DNV last time - wouldn't want to be relying on that coming in.

    If we strip out DNV from both Lab and Con we are left with

    1579 Lab
    1304 Con

    Interesting that both Labour and UKIP shares come from people who don't actually vote. The pie charts show the Tories have retained 20% more of its 2010 vote than Labour has during 3 years of media criticism and people think Labour will win! These charts imply much of the current polling is total froth. UKIP may do well at the Euros because so few people vote and most that do think the Euro elections are less important than their parish council elections. GE2015 will be very different, especially if Scotland is taken out of the equation.

    If we strip down to solely 2010 voters of the same parties

    1165 Lab
    1175 Con

    In both cases Labour wins more seats than the Conservatives.







  • Alasdair said:

    So, UKIP retained none of their 2010 support. Or are UKIP included in 'OTH & DNV' in the pie chart ?

    There is no separate UKIP 2010 data in the poll detail. They got, it will be recalled, 3.1%

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Stripping out the fabled 2010 Lib Dems:

    Labour 1541;
    Conservatives 1333.
  • I suppose a zero policy scattergun is better ?

    Maybe as a PPC you could give us a steer on Labour Policy.
    That's unfair.....

    They're going to I) have a bankers bonus tax which they are going to II) spend on lots and lots and lots and lots of things and III) they are going to freeze everyone's energy prices at the newly increased April 2015 level for two years.....isn't that enough to be going on with?

  • @TGOHF

    Pulpstar has done the maths so you don't have to.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,469

    I suppose a zero policy scattergun is better ?

    Maybe as a PPC you could give us a steer on Labour Policy.
    Labour policy can be summed up by their approach to HS2: make positive noises to Labourites who support the project (e.g. northern councils), and negative noises to others. And all the time, threaten to escalate costs by delaying things.

    In other words, they are pathetically sitting on the fence. Oh, for conviction politicians with guts, who believe in something.
  • TGOHF said:

    Big boost for EdM in YouGov's "Best PM" ratings.
    Was DC 36 EdM 23. Today's poll DC 36 EDM 27

    Margin of error stuff, surely. More pertinent (and someone on here will know, that's for sure!) - has a governing Party ever lost an election despite having the least unpopular leader?

    23 to 27 is not MOE

    It is if the actual figure is 25.
    They have done a good job keeping Ed off the telly recently...
    Would this be the very same Ed who was front and centre of a recent Labour PB.

    Lot of wishful thinking from you today.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,566



    Considering Labour supporters are very keen to go back as far as Thatcher - and earlier - to show Conservative mistakes, I'm not sure you're on firm ground with this 'it's all in the past' argument.

    But it was 'ages ago', wasn't it? Which in your mind is seven weeks. ;-)

    And your comment does nothing to answer the questions above.

    Hey, you appear to treat Labour supporters as a hivemind when it suits your argument - I can't remember the last time *I* referred to Mrs Thatcher, but it was, to coin a phrase, ages ago. I expect there are Labour supporters who are jolly interested in Mrs Thatcher and gold sales and Kinnock vs Militant, and perhaps Keir Hardie and Lloyd George, and there's no reason why you shouldn't share their hobby. Happy delving!

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Big boost for EdM in YouGov's "Best PM" ratings.
    Was DC 36 EdM 23. Today's poll DC 36 EDM 27

    Margin of error stuff, surely. More pertinent (and someone on here will know, that's for sure!) - has a governing Party ever lost an election despite having the least unpopular leader?

    23 to 27 is not MOE

    It is if the actual figure is 25.
    They have done a good job keeping Ed off the telly recently...
    Would this be the very same Ed who was front and centre of a recent Labour PB.

    Lot of wishful thinking from you today.
    How many people saw that - really.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    DavidL said:

    Isn't it also noteworthy that 32% of UKIP's support comes from "Others & DNV". I suppose some might be ex-BNP voters, but given the scale of their national support, I would surmise that DNV's provide a large proportion of that 32%.

    Quite. DNV and will not vote. Their support is overstated.

    Not sure about that. Maybe some NOTA's have found what they think is a home!
    There's certainly been a big fall in turnout since 1997. RCS suggested the other day that UKIP had found a "gap in the market" in unrepresented social conservatives.

    http://www.ukpolitical.info/Turnout45.htm
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited February 2014
    RobD said:

    From this selection of charts I surmise that the LDs currently have no supporters worth mentioning!

    LOL

    Not at all.
    That small slice that support labour from 2010 is worth mentioning endlessly despite the lib dems flatlining at 10% since late 2010.

    Why are these and only these 2010 lib dem switchers so important? Er, well, because... they might all run off one day so little Ed had better be nicer to Clegg??

    Yes, that must be it.
  • Ed Miliband's bump in "make best PM" (23>27) comes from Lab (65>72) and Lib Dem (8>13). Worth remembering Miliband was on 20 before Christmas.....
This discussion has been closed.