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SNPeaked? How far could they fall in 2024? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,753
edited May 2023 in General
imageSNPeaked? How far could they fall in 2024? – politicalbetting.com

Recent revelations about SNP bookkeeping and motorhome buying have led to headlines about a sudden meltdown, but this is somewhat misleading. While their polling remained stable until late 2022 their position has looked increasingly precarious.

Read the full story here

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  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,492
    Top piece, Pip.

    You have a good bet there.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,581
    edited May 2023
    Good morning

    Re last thread Sunak's live press conference just now from Hiroshima ducks questions on Braverman

    When he returns to London time for him to take action on the terrible Braverman who is doing him no favours

    On topic

    I think the SNP and in particular independence are in great peril and anything could happen
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,216
    Is this the fatal part of the Braverman story?

    A source close to the home secretary said: "Mrs Braverman accepted three points for a speeding offence which took place last summer.
    "The Cabinet Office was made aware of the situation as requested by Mrs Braverman. She was not and is not disqualified from driving."
    A Cabinet Office spokesman said: "It would not be appropriate to comment on the existence or content of advice between Government departments."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65659053

    The version being reported elsewhere is that the civil servants were concerned at her request and reported it to the Cabinet Office. If anything, the "source close to" Braverman suggests it was she who tried to get the Cabinet Office to intervene.

    Either way, it was clearly more than Braverman simply asking the civil servants for information about the options.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,921
    No-one has got rich betting against the SNP for the past decade or more. Could it change this time? It sure can. But the fundamentals remain strong for them IMO.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,535
    The comparison with the Tories is cruel, but it's certainly possible they'll have a very bad election.
    A significant difference is that support for independence is quite strong with younger voters; the demographic outlook for the Conservative Party is considerably shakier.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,535
    OT, this is notable.

    Striking how Putin is adopting Trump's perceived enemies as his own. The new Russian sanctions list includes people Trump considers adversaries like Letitia James, Brad Raffensperger and the officer who shot Ashli Babbitt even though none has anything to do with Russia policy.
    https://twitter.com/peterbakernyt/status/1660097645657075712
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,535

    Good morning

    Re last thread Sunak's live press conference just now from Hiroshima ducks questions on Braverman

    When he returns to London time for him to take action on the terrible Braverman who is doing him no favours

    On topic

    I think the SNP and in particular independence are in great peril and anything could happen

    Morning Big G. It's quiet here this morning, so why don't we chat amongst ourselves.

    To be honest I don't see there's all that much in this Braverman thing. She got done, as most of us do from time to time, and was embarrassed at the thought of appearing alongside the great unwashed at one of those courses with which I personally am very familiar. She tried to see if she could wriggle out of it, it didn't work: she tried to use a bit of 'fluence and that didn't work either, so she took the points and paid the fine.

    It's no big deal but I think she missed a trick. If she had gone on the course she could have made a virtue of it, telling everyone what a good thing they are (which is true) and how it's helped make her a better driver, better understanding of the issues, blah blah blah. It would have been good publicity, and helped her popularity with that important voter - the oppressed motorist...

    In other circumstances, it might be entirely survivable, but while petty, it is quite inappropriate behaviour. For an authoritarian and unpopular Home Secretary, in an unpopular government, who does not see eye to eye with the PM, it could quite likely be what removes her from office.
    The details, for now not entirely clear, will matter.

  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,535
    On that note.

    Senior Tories say Trump-style takeover could precipitate party meltdown
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/21/senior-tories-say-trump-style-takeover-could-precipitate-party-meltdown
    enior Tories are warning their party will be finished should it undergo “a Trumpian style takeover” from the right, amid growing concerns that it risks political meltdown in its “blue wall” heartlands.

    Prominent Conservatives from across the party are now increasingly concerned that a tilt to the right and anger over the handling of Brexit could lead to the party’s support collapsing in liberal, home counties seats in the same way that Labour imploded in Scotland in 2015.

    A backlash is growing among liberal Tories after a week in which figures on the right of the party championed Boris Johnson and accused Rishi Sunak of backtracking on Brexit, while the home secretary, Suella Braverman, openly denounced “experts and elites”...


    OTOH, one of those quoted is Hancock.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,903
    edited May 2023
    When does Rishi get back from the summit? Presumably, nothing can happen until then.

    Which makes me wonder if this did come from Team Rishi. If a PM wanted to destroy a minister, a better timeline would surely be

    1. Get the story in the papers.
    2. Furious meeting with minister that night.
    3. Sacked in time for the Sunday morning talk shows.

    The "take advice, due process" thing is hot air. The only thing that matters is whether the PM wants that minister in office or not.
  • Options
    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503
    edited May 2023
    Chris said:

    Is this the fatal part of the Braverman story?

    A source close to the home secretary said: "Mrs Braverman accepted three points for a speeding offence which took place last summer.
    "The Cabinet Office was made aware of the situation as requested by Mrs Braverman. She was not and is not disqualified from driving."
    A Cabinet Office spokesman said: "It would not be appropriate to comment on the existence or content of advice between Government departments."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65659053

    The version being reported elsewhere is that the civil servants were concerned at her request and reported it to the Cabinet Office. If anything, the "source close to" Braverman suggests it was she who tried to get the Cabinet Office to intervene.

    Either way, it was clearly more than Braverman simply asking the civil servants for information about the options.

    Morning, yes, this doesn't look all that good for her.

    It looks a lot like she's made all sorts of special requests, in a fairly obviously arrogant and entitled way.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,535
    edited May 2023
    The article is also quite interesting for another Scottish comparison.

    ...New analysis has increased fears of a blue wall crisis. The 2023 local election Tory vote share in more Remain wards was far below what the party achieved under David Cameron, according to research by Robert Ford, professor of political science at the University of Manchester. Conservative votes in 2023 were down almost 14 points on their performance in 2015 in the most Remain wards.

    It is causing panic among some Tories. “I’m more worried about the blue wall than anything,” said one former cabinet minister. “I really think there’s a chance that what happened to Labour in Scotland in 2015 could happen to us in the blue wall at the next election...

    ...Ford said that while caution should be taken before applying local election findings to a general election, there was a significant threat to the Conservatives in blue wall seats. “There have been large swings against the Conservatives in many quintessentially home counties seats – for example the party’s vote fell in most of the seats in Berkshire, Buckinghamshire, Cambridgeshire, Oxfordshire and Surrey,” he said.

    “If what I’ve noticed in the local election results translates into a general election, it is a real problem. You see the same kind of proportional swing dynamics in 2023 that we saw hitting the Liberal Democrats in 2015, or hitting Scottish Labour in 2015 – or going further back, hitting the Conservatives in 1997. That is a really dangerous scenario where the stronger you start, the further you fall. When that happens, no one is safe.”

  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,943

    Good morning

    Re last thread Sunak's live press conference just now from Hiroshima ducks questions on Braverman

    When he returns to London time for him to take action on the terrible Braverman who is doing him no favours

    On topic

    I think the SNP and in particular independence are in great peril and anything could happen

    Morning Big G. It's quiet here this morning, so why don't we chat amongst ourselves.

    To be honest I don't see there's all that much in this Braverman thing. She got done, as most of us do from time to time, and was embarrassed at the thought of appearing alongside the great unwashed at one of those courses with which I personally am very familiar. She tried to see if she could wriggle out of it, it didn't work: she tried to use a bit of 'fluence and that didn't work either, so she took the points and paid the fine.

    It's no big deal but I think she missed a trick. If she had gone on the course she could have made a virtue of it, telling everyone what a good thing they are (which is true) and how it's helped make her a better driver, better understanding of the issues, blah blah blah. It would have been good publicity, and helped her popularity with that important voter - the oppressed motorist.

    Instead she's managed to make herself look a bit sneaky, again. It's not a resigning issue, in my opinion, but it ain't a great look either. Whatever Labour may say publicly, privately they will be anxious that she remains in Office. She's a great asset to them.

    On the SNP, agree absolutely. The ony question is how low do the SNP go. My guess is 20 seats. Any other offers?


    “Better to have your enemies inside the tent pissing out, than outside the tent pissing in.”


    ― Lyndon B. Johnson
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,903

    Nigelb said:

    On that note.

    Senior Tories say Trump-style takeover could precipitate party meltdown
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/21/senior-tories-say-trump-style-takeover-could-precipitate-party-meltdown
    enior Tories are warning their party will be finished should it undergo “a Trumpian style takeover” from the right, amid growing concerns that it risks political meltdown in its “blue wall” heartlands.

    Prominent Conservatives from across the party are now increasingly concerned that a tilt to the right and anger over the handling of Brexit could lead to the party’s support collapsing in liberal, home counties seats in the same way that Labour imploded in Scotland in 2015.

    A backlash is growing among liberal Tories after a week in which figures on the right of the party championed Boris Johnson and accused Rishi Sunak of backtracking on Brexit, while the home secretary, Suella Braverman, openly denounced “experts and elites”...


    OTOH, one of those quoted is Hancock.

    Braverman is a private school and Cambridge-educated lawyer niece of an ambassador. She is part of the elite, yet she denounces the elite? Very Trumpian.
    One of the noticeable things about the people currently at the top of the Conservative Party is how many of them are elite (and often quite a global elite) but don't present themselves that way.

    See also Kemi Badenoch. We hear a lot more about her working at McDonald's than her being the daughter of a US academic.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,702
    edited May 2023
    Meanwhile in other news (as already linked above):

    Senior Tories are warning their party will be finished should it undergo “a Trumpian style takeover” from the right, amid growing concerns that it risks political meltdown in its “blue wall” heartlands.

    Prominent Conservatives from across the party are now increasingly concerned that a tilt to the right and anger over the handling of Brexit could lead to the party’s support collapsing in liberal, home counties seats in the same way that Labour imploded in Scotland in 2015.

    Lord Heseltine, the former deputy prime minister, said his party was now heading to lose the next election and would require a complete rebuild in the wake of defeat. “At the moment the party is tearing itself apart,” he said. “It was Rab Butler who rebuilt the party after the 1945 defeat, with a completely new party, policy and philosophy. The party knew it had to win power. The same thing is going to happen after this next election.”

    Vaizey warns that a lurch to the right could allow Labour to dominate for years. “We have been here before,” he writes. “After our defeat in 1997, so many Conservatives blamed the outcome on our party not being Conservative enough. It was a long and hard struggle to get the party back to the mainstream, and to re-learn the lesson that you only win in politics by looking forward, not back. “You actually have to like the country in which you live, and want to make it better, in order for the public to want to back you. Harking back to a golden age, with a wish-list of policies that are completely absurd in a modern, developed nation, is for the birds.”
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,065
    Mr. Romford, that's true but it does cut the other way too. 'Elite' often means 'very rich people who don't share my opinion. They're out of touch, not like me'.

    It's becoming as vague and unhelpful as terms like 'progressive' which is just an almost adult way of saying 'goodies'.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,535
    Jonathan said:

    Good morning

    Re last thread Sunak's live press conference just now from Hiroshima ducks questions on Braverman

    When he returns to London time for him to take action on the terrible Braverman who is doing him no favours

    On topic

    I think the SNP and in particular independence are in great peril and anything could happen

    Morning Big G. It's quiet here this morning, so why don't we chat amongst ourselves.

    To be honest I don't see there's all that much in this Braverman thing. She got done, as most of us do from time to time, and was embarrassed at the thought of appearing alongside the great unwashed at one of those courses with which I personally am very familiar. She tried to see if she could wriggle out of it, it didn't work: she tried to use a bit of 'fluence and that didn't work either, so she took the points and paid the fine.

    It's no big deal but I think she missed a trick. If she had gone on the course she could have made a virtue of it, telling everyone what a good thing they are (which is true) and how it's helped make her a better driver, better understanding of the issues, blah blah blah. It would have been good publicity, and helped her popularity with that important voter - the oppressed motorist.

    Instead she's managed to make herself look a bit sneaky, again. It's not a resigning issue, in my opinion, but it ain't a great look either. Whatever Labour may say publicly, privately they will be anxious that she remains in Office. She's a great asset to them.

    On the SNP, agree absolutely. The ony question is how low do the SNP go. My guess is 20 seats. Any other offers?


    “Better to have your enemies inside the tent pissing out, than outside the tent pissing in.”


    ― Lyndon B. Johnson
    Not when they're out of control.
    LBJ dominated his administration in a way no Tory leader, especially Sunak, could even dream of.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,065
    Also, this is breaking so there could be more to come, but this looks like reading into things too much.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65662563

    "Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky appears to have confirmed that Russia has won the long-running and bloody battle for the city of Bakhmut.

    Asked on Sunday whether Ukraine had control of the eastern Ukrainian city, Zelensky said: "I think not." "

    An area can be contested. Just because it's not under the control of Ukraine, or Russia, doesn't mean the other side necessarily has control of it.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,820

    Mr. Romford, that's true but it does cut the other way too. 'Elite' often means 'very rich people who don't share my opinion. They're out of touch, not like me'.

    People to whom the rules don't apply, like speeding points on a driving license...
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,065
    Mr. xP, as has already been noted, Harman was also not a model citizen when it came to such things.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,943

    Nigelb said:

    On that note.

    Senior Tories say Trump-style takeover could precipitate party meltdown
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/21/senior-tories-say-trump-style-takeover-could-precipitate-party-meltdown
    enior Tories are warning their party will be finished should it undergo “a Trumpian style takeover” from the right, amid growing concerns that it risks political meltdown in its “blue wall” heartlands.

    Prominent Conservatives from across the party are now increasingly concerned that a tilt to the right and anger over the handling of Brexit could lead to the party’s support collapsing in liberal, home counties seats in the same way that Labour imploded in Scotland in 2015.

    A backlash is growing among liberal Tories after a week in which figures on the right of the party championed Boris Johnson and accused Rishi Sunak of backtracking on Brexit, while the home secretary, Suella Braverman, openly denounced “experts and elites”...


    OTOH, one of those quoted is Hancock.

    Braverman is a private school and Cambridge-educated lawyer niece of an ambassador. She is part of the elite, yet she denounces the elite? Very Trumpian.
    Trumpism is a classic coalition between the monied class and what used to be called the C2 working class Tories, against the professional educated middle class who they both can’t stand.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,138
    On topic, I think it's premature to talk about how bad second place might be for the SNP. It's notable that the polling puts them on about the same level as the 2017 election, and a large part of the fall has been from polling levels that exceeded their 2019 result.

    Of course, the identity of the second placed party has changed, and Labour are currently polling higher than that the Conservatives achieved in 2019, by 5-6 points. That will certainly harm the SNP. But a consistent SNP second place is only something that we see extending the recent trend forward. We all know that this can sometimes pan out and sometimes not.

    We'll see what happens when (if) CCHQ stops eating itself and starts to generate pre-election hit pieces on Labour. If they come up with anything that cuts through, I think an SNP win that exceeds their 2017 result is possible.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,149

    Also, this is breaking so there could be more to come, but this looks like reading into things too much.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65662563

    "Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky appears to have confirmed that Russia has won the long-running and bloody battle for the city of Bakhmut.

    Asked on Sunday whether Ukraine had control of the eastern Ukrainian city, Zelensky said: "I think not." "

    An area can be contested. Just because it's not under the control of Ukraine, or Russia, doesn't mean the other side necessarily has control of it.

    Lots of gleeful pro-Russian accounts celebrating on Twitter this morning. There have definitely been way more of these since Musk took over.

    I think Ukraine could really do with some good news soon.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,903

    Mr. Romford, that's true but it does cut the other way too. 'Elite' often means 'very rich people who don't share my opinion. They're out of touch, not like me'.

    It's becoming as vague and unhelpful as terms like 'progressive' which is just an almost adult way of saying 'goodies'.

    It's the contradiction that jars, though.

    I get why it happens. Not all the grief Sunak gets for being rich is fair, though it clearly does create empathy issues. But that doesn't neutralise the discord.

    But if we look at the Conservative leadership teams since about 2019, there are a lot of them who started very near the top of the tree and have put a lot of passion into getting to the very top.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,138

    Mr. Romford, that's true but it does cut the other way too. 'Elite' often means 'very rich people who don't share my opinion. They're out of touch, not like me'.

    It's becoming as vague and unhelpful as terms like 'progressive' which is just an almost adult way of saying 'goodies'.

    You're entirely wrong. "Progressive" has a distinct meaning in politics: it's the ideology that holds that political action is a pathway to improving the lives and livelihoods of citizens. Its opposite is the range of small-state ideologies that hold that the state holds back or harms outcomes and should not interfere.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,214

    Nigelb said:

    On that note.

    Senior Tories say Trump-style takeover could precipitate party meltdown
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/21/senior-tories-say-trump-style-takeover-could-precipitate-party-meltdown
    enior Tories are warning their party will be finished should it undergo “a Trumpian style takeover” from the right, amid growing concerns that it risks political meltdown in its “blue wall” heartlands.

    Prominent Conservatives from across the party are now increasingly concerned that a tilt to the right and anger over the handling of Brexit could lead to the party’s support collapsing in liberal, home counties seats in the same way that Labour imploded in Scotland in 2015.

    A backlash is growing among liberal Tories after a week in which figures on the right of the party championed Boris Johnson and accused Rishi Sunak of backtracking on Brexit, while the home secretary, Suella Braverman, openly denounced “experts and elites”...


    OTOH, one of those quoted is Hancock.

    Braverman is a private school and Cambridge-educated lawyer niece of an ambassador. She is part of the elite, yet she denounces the elite? Very Trumpian.
    The hypocrisy is astounding.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,943
    Norman Tebbit in his prime would have been quite happy as a National Conservative Trumpian.

    Arguably this is just part of reheated Thatcherism, but critically with the economic and work ethic part of Thatcherism written out. Compared to Thatcherism , National Conservatism is dumb, economically illiterate and lazy.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,214
    DougSeal said:

    Mr. xP, as has already been noted, Harman was also not a model citizen when it came to such things.

    That makes it all okay then. Nothing to see here. Someone else did something bad so this persons bad doesn't count. Glad that's been cleared up.
    It's nothing that a quick splash of whataboutery can't wipe away.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,860
    TimS said:

    Also, this is breaking so there could be more to come, but this looks like reading into things too much.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65662563

    "Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky appears to have confirmed that Russia has won the long-running and bloody battle for the city of Bakhmut.

    Asked on Sunday whether Ukraine had control of the eastern Ukrainian city, Zelensky said: "I think not." "

    An area can be contested. Just because it's not under the control of Ukraine, or Russia, doesn't mean the other side necessarily has control of it.

    Lots of gleeful pro-Russian accounts celebrating on Twitter this morning. There have definitely been way more of these since Musk took over.

    I think Ukraine could really do with some good news soon.
    Then they're fools. What have they actually gained? A town of zero strategic value that they are unlikely to be able to hold for long. And what has it cost them? Potentially pretty much their whole army, certainly all the most effective bits of it.

    It obviously isn't great news for Ukraine but I'm reminded of the Mexican colonel who while Santa Ana was celebrating finally capturing the Alamo commented, 'one more glorious victory like this and we're finished.'
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,860

    Nigelb said:

    On that note.

    Senior Tories say Trump-style takeover could precipitate party meltdown
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/21/senior-tories-say-trump-style-takeover-could-precipitate-party-meltdown
    enior Tories are warning their party will be finished should it undergo “a Trumpian style takeover” from the right, amid growing concerns that it risks political meltdown in its “blue wall” heartlands.

    Prominent Conservatives from across the party are now increasingly concerned that a tilt to the right and anger over the handling of Brexit could lead to the party’s support collapsing in liberal, home counties seats in the same way that Labour imploded in Scotland in 2015.

    A backlash is growing among liberal Tories after a week in which figures on the right of the party championed Boris Johnson and accused Rishi Sunak of backtracking on Brexit, while the home secretary, Suella Braverman, openly denounced “experts and elites”...


    OTOH, one of those quoted is Hancock.

    Braverman is a private school and Cambridge-educated lawyer niece of an ambassador. She is part of the elite, yet she denounces the elite? Very Trumpian.
    The hypocrisy is astounding.
    Really? It's what I expect of her, to be honest.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,214

    When does Rishi get back from the summit? Presumably, nothing can happen until then.

    Which makes me wonder if this did come from Team Rishi. If a PM wanted to destroy a minister, a better timeline would surely be

    1. Get the story in the papers.
    2. Furious meeting with minister that night.
    3. Sacked in time for the Sunday morning talk shows.

    The "take advice, due process" thing is hot air. The only thing that matters is whether the PM wants that minister in office or not.

    I'm surprised the Mail led with it in that case.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,976

    Nigelb said:

    On that note.

    Senior Tories say Trump-style takeover could precipitate party meltdown
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/21/senior-tories-say-trump-style-takeover-could-precipitate-party-meltdown
    enior Tories are warning their party will be finished should it undergo “a Trumpian style takeover” from the right, amid growing concerns that it risks political meltdown in its “blue wall” heartlands.

    Prominent Conservatives from across the party are now increasingly concerned that a tilt to the right and anger over the handling of Brexit could lead to the party’s support collapsing in liberal, home counties seats in the same way that Labour imploded in Scotland in 2015.

    A backlash is growing among liberal Tories after a week in which figures on the right of the party championed Boris Johnson and accused Rishi Sunak of backtracking on Brexit, while the home secretary, Suella Braverman, openly denounced “experts and elites”...


    OTOH, one of those quoted is Hancock.

    Braverman is a private school and Cambridge-educated lawyer niece of an ambassador. She is part of the elite, yet she denounces the elite? Very Trumpian.
    "[Tony Blair] even claimed that 'the establishment' was holding the country back. He's a forty-something, public school-educated barrister from Islington, with a two hundred seat majority in the House of Commons. Who does he think is the establishment?"
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/468183.stm
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,686

    Good morning

    Re last thread Sunak's live press conference just now from Hiroshima ducks questions on Braverman

    When he returns to London time for him to take action on the terrible Braverman who is doing him no favours

    On topic

    I think the SNP and in particular independence are in great peril and anything could happen

    Morning Big G. It's quiet here this morning, so why don't we chat amongst ourselves.

    To be honest I don't see there's all that much in this Braverman thing. She got done, as most of us do from time to time, and was embarrassed at the thought of appearing alongside the great unwashed at one of those courses with which I personally am very familiar. She tried to see if she could wriggle out of it, it didn't work: she tried to use a bit of 'fluence and that didn't work either, so she took the points and paid the fine.

    It's no big deal but I think she missed a trick. If she had gone on the course she could have made a virtue of it, telling everyone what a good thing they are (which is true) and how it's helped make her a better driver, better understanding of the issues, blah blah blah. It would have been good publicity, and helped her popularity with that important voter - the oppressed motorist.

    Instead she's managed to make herself look a bit sneaky, again. It's not a resigning issue, in my opinion, but it ain't a great look either. Whatever Labour may say publicly, privately they will be anxious that she remains in Office. She's a great asset to them.

    On the SNP, agree absolutely. The ony question is how low do the SNP go. My guess is 20 seats. Any other offers?
    I agree, nothing to see. On the Johnsonian scale of corruption it barely moves the dial. On any other scale it would be massive, but that is so pre 2019.

    As to dismissing Braverman, surely after the locals, the last thing Sunak needs to do is poke the vipers' nest that is the National Conservatism wing of his broad church.

    Best to suggest, "nothing to see, move along".
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,903
    edited May 2023
    ydoethur said:

    When does Rishi get back from the summit? Presumably, nothing can happen until then.

    Which makes me wonder if this did come from Team Rishi. If a PM wanted to destroy a minister, a better timeline would surely be

    1. Get the story in the papers.
    2. Furious meeting with minister that night.
    3. Sacked in time for the Sunday morning talk shows.

    The "take advice, due process" thing is hot air. The only thing that matters is whether the PM wants that minister in office or not.

    When has Sunak ever operated like that? 'Dither and delay' have been his modus operandi on such things from the off.
    That shows how rubbish a political operator Rishi is. More importantly, since he's away right now, it shows how rubbish Team Rishi are as political operators.

    The timeline almost makes more sense as Suella hoping for suicide by PM. She has to go, but in a way that makes Rishi look bad on the way out.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,535
    .
    Farooq said:

    On topic, I think it's premature to talk about how bad second place might be for the SNP. It's notable that the polling puts them on about the same level as the 2017 election, and a large part of the fall has been from polling levels that exceeded their 2019 result.

    Of course, the identity of the second placed party has changed, and Labour are currently polling higher than that the Conservatives achieved in 2019, by 5-6 points. That will certainly harm the SNP. But a consistent SNP second place is only something that we see extending the recent trend forward. We all know that this can sometimes pan out and sometimes not.

    We'll see what happens when (if) CCHQ stops eating itself and starts to generate pre-election hit pieces on Labour. If they come up with anything that cuts through, I think an SNP win that exceeds their 2017 result is possible.

    It’s never premature to talk about betting tips.
    If you were always to wait until the outcome is clear, then you wouldn’t get many worthwhile bets.

    That said, while the odds Pip obtained might be interesting, 3/1 isn’t generous enough.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,686
    Jonathan said:

    Norman Tebbit in his prime would have been quite happy as a National Conservative Trumpian.

    Arguably this is just part of reheated Thatcherism, but critically with the economic and work ethic part of Thatcherism written out. Compared to Thatcherism , National Conservatism is dumb, economically illiterate and lazy.

    At least Tebbit's dad's bike couldn't exceed the speed limit.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,138
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Farooq said:

    On topic, I think it's premature to talk about how bad second place might be for the SNP. It's notable that the polling puts them on about the same level as the 2017 election, and a large part of the fall has been from polling levels that exceeded their 2019 result.

    Of course, the identity of the second placed party has changed, and Labour are currently polling higher than that the Conservatives achieved in 2019, by 5-6 points. That will certainly harm the SNP. But a consistent SNP second place is only something that we see extending the recent trend forward. We all know that this can sometimes pan out and sometimes not.

    We'll see what happens when (if) CCHQ stops eating itself and starts to generate pre-election hit pieces on Labour. If they come up with anything that cuts through, I think an SNP win that exceeds their 2017 result is possible.

    It’s never premature to talk about betting tips.
    If you were always to wait until the outcome is clear, then you wouldn’t get many worthwhile bets.

    That said, while the odds Pip obtained might be interesting, 3/1 isn’t generous enough.
    You're quite right. The opener was just a clumsily-written way of introducing the idea that the trend isn't always your friend. I think a few people are starting to feel like crossover is inevitable, but I don't think it is.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,042
    edited May 2023
    Always a good idea to look to Catalonia when working out what might happen in Scotland, with the caveat that different voting systems will mean different choices for the electorate and political leaders.

    The basic message is that for a large number of voters what matters is independence. They’ll vote for the parties that seek it, whatever they do and whoever leads them.

    For that reason I’d expect the SNP to never drop below 30% of the vote in Scotland and probably be closer to 40% most of the time. A Tory government in Westminster and a charismatic, capable leader could get the number up towards 50%.

    All that’s a long way of saying that the SNP is going to have more Scottish MPs and MSPs than any other party for a very long time to come.

    What could change that? A formal split between constitutionalists and secessionists. That might let Labour through the middle. But it won’t happen because of FPTP.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,138

    Always a good idea to look to Catalonia when working out what might happen in Scotland, with the caveat that different voting systems will mean different choices for the electorate and political leaders.

    The basic message is that for a large number of voters what matters is independence. They’ll vote for the parties that seek it, whatever they do and whoever leads them.

    For that reason I’d expect the SNP to never drop below 30% of the vote in Scotland and probably be closer to 40% most of the time. A Tory government in Westminster and a charismatic, capable leader could get the number up towards 50%.

    All that’s a long way of saying that the SNP is going to have more Scottish MPs and MSPs than any other party for a very long time to come.

    What could change that? A formal split between constitutionalists and secessionists. That might let Labour through the middle. But it won’t happen because of FPTP.

    I'll tell you what else could reduce the number of independence-minded MPs: proportional representation.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 19,042

    Good morning

    Re last thread Sunak's live press conference just now from Hiroshima ducks questions on Braverman

    When he returns to London time for him to take action on the terrible Braverman who is doing him no favours

    On topic

    I think the SNP and in particular independence are in great peril and anything could happen

    If there has been a more hateful cabinet minister they've escaped my memory. Maybe Patel? It matters not whether Sunak keeps her or whether she goes. The poison is all over him and his government.

    I slightly hope she stays. Associating her odious behaviour with a motoring offence is to trivialise the damage she has done
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,042

    When does Rishi get back from the summit? Presumably, nothing can happen until then.

    Which makes me wonder if this did come from Team Rishi. If a PM wanted to destroy a minister, a better timeline would surely be

    1. Get the story in the papers.
    2. Furious meeting with minister that night.
    3. Sacked in time for the Sunday morning talk shows.

    The "take advice, due process" thing is hot air. The only thing that matters is whether the PM wants that minister in office or not.

    Yep, Team Sunak leaking the story makes no sense at all as a subsequent failure to fire her just makes him look shifty and weak. A PM who promises to put honesty and integrity at the heart of everything simply does not tolerate what Braverman has done.

  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,138
    Can I ask a stupid question? There's been some talk over the years of the idea of a graduate tax. What does this actually entail? Do they mean students who start after a certain cut off point will have a special tax code that means their income tax will be higher? Or does it apply to anybody who has graduated irrespective of when?
    I can't quite believe anybody would be stupid enough to make earlier graduates pay, but it's on my mind and I can't seem to find details about the idea.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,860

    When does Rishi get back from the summit? Presumably, nothing can happen until then.

    Which makes me wonder if this did come from Team Rishi. If a PM wanted to destroy a minister, a better timeline would surely be

    1. Get the story in the papers.
    2. Furious meeting with minister that night.
    3. Sacked in time for the Sunday morning talk shows.

    The "take advice, due process" thing is hot air. The only thing that matters is whether the PM wants that minister in office or not.

    Yep, Team Sunak leaking the story makes no sense at all as a subsequent failure to fire her just makes him look shifty and weak. A PM who promises to put honesty and integrity at the heart of everything simply does not tolerate what Braverman has done.

    He *is* shifty and weak.

    I'm reminded of Sergeant Berrigan's acid commentary on Lord Robin Holloway: 'You made him look like a bloody idiot, sir, but that ain't difficult because he is a bloody idiot.'
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,138
    ydoethur said:

    When does Rishi get back from the summit? Presumably, nothing can happen until then.

    Which makes me wonder if this did come from Team Rishi. If a PM wanted to destroy a minister, a better timeline would surely be

    1. Get the story in the papers.
    2. Furious meeting with minister that night.
    3. Sacked in time for the Sunday morning talk shows.

    The "take advice, due process" thing is hot air. The only thing that matters is whether the PM wants that minister in office or not.

    Yep, Team Sunak leaking the story makes no sense at all as a subsequent failure to fire her just makes him look shifty and weak. A PM who promises to put honesty and integrity at the heart of everything simply does not tolerate what Braverman has done.

    He *is* shifty and weak.

    I'm reminded of Sergeant Berrigan's acid commentary on Lord Robin Holloway: 'You made him look like a bloody idiot, sir, but that ain't difficult because he is a bloody idiot.'
    Groucho Marx, wasn't it?
    He may look like an idiot and sound like an idiot but don't let that fool you... he is an idiot!
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,580
    edited May 2023
    In recent times I always assume the SNP won't fall as much as I would like, so I can be pleasantly surprised if wrong long in 2017. FF43 summarises it well.

    This bottle scheme business is in the news today and seems odd - apparently they urgently need exemption to a UK Act in order to do it, but only requested this in March of this year. Obviously opportunity is being taken by the government to make them sweat about it, but is there a good procedural reason the request was so late in the day? Perhaps they could not request until everything was ready to go?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,580
    edited May 2023
    Nigelb said:

    OT, this is notable.

    Striking how Putin is adopting Trump's perceived enemies as his own. The new Russian sanctions list includes people Trump considers adversaries like Letitia James, Brad Raffensperger and the officer who shot Ashli Babbitt even though none has anything to do with Russia policy.
    https://twitter.com/peterbakernyt/status/1660097645657075712

    I was about to call it incredibly random but of course the very lack of randomness is striking.

    Do Putin's people just watch Fox News 24/7 and pick out people hosts whine about? I mean, the Sectetary of State of Georgia only notable internationally because he refused to just give Trump the election? Curious choice.

    Is that official?
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,353
    Nigelb said:

    Good morning

    Re last thread Sunak's live press conference just now from Hiroshima ducks questions on Braverman

    When he returns to London time for him to take action on the terrible Braverman who is doing him no favours

    On topic

    I think the SNP and in particular independence are in great peril and anything could happen

    Morning Big G. It's quiet here this morning, so why don't we chat amongst ourselves.

    To be honest I don't see there's all that much in this Braverman thing. She got done, as most of us do from time to time, and was embarrassed at the thought of appearing alongside the great unwashed at one of those courses with which I personally am very familiar. She tried to see if she could wriggle out of it, it didn't work: she tried to use a bit of 'fluence and that didn't work either, so she took the points and paid the fine.

    It's no big deal but I think she missed a trick. If she had gone on the course she could have made a virtue of it, telling everyone what a good thing they are (which is true) and how it's helped make her a better driver, better understanding of the issues, blah blah blah. It would have been good publicity, and helped her popularity with that important voter - the oppressed motorist...

    In other circumstances, it might be entirely survivable, but while petty, it is quite inappropriate behaviour. For an authoritarian and unpopular Home Secretary, in an unpopular government, who does not see eye to eye with the PM, it could quite likely be what removes her from office.
    The details, for now not entirely clear, will matter.

    It is just what we expect from these lowlifes. Abuse their positions , too important to mix with the great unwashed , deserve preferential treatment.
    They are gifting it to Labour an dthe sooner the better to be rid of this bunch of out of touch rogues..
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,903
    ydoethur said:

    When does Rishi get back from the summit? Presumably, nothing can happen until then.

    Which makes me wonder if this did come from Team Rishi. If a PM wanted to destroy a minister, a better timeline would surely be

    1. Get the story in the papers.
    2. Furious meeting with minister that night.
    3. Sacked in time for the Sunday morning talk shows.

    The "take advice, due process" thing is hot air. The only thing that matters is whether the PM wants that minister in office or not.

    Yep, Team Sunak leaking the story makes no sense at all as a subsequent failure to fire her just makes him look shifty and weak. A PM who promises to put honesty and integrity at the heart of everything simply does not tolerate what Braverman has done.

    He *is* shifty and weak.

    I'm reminded of Sergeant Berrigan's acid commentary on Lord Robin Holloway: 'You made him look like a bloody idiot, sir, but that ain't difficult because he is a bloody idiot.'
    Or one of the footnotes from the Jim Hacker diaries. Paraphrasing,

    It must have hurt Sir Humphrey to be described as shifty and weak. It must have hurt more to be so described by someone as shifty and weak as Jim Hacker. What would have hurt most was the knowledge that Hacker was right.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,231
    Good Morning, everyone.

    The (very) silly feature of the Braverman debacle is that had she attended a speeding course it would have demonstrated a commitment to equality before the law, and a break with Boris-ism.
    Now it just seems as though she (especially) believes she shouldn’t be treated the same as “ordinary” folk.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,138
    edited May 2023
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    OT, this is notable.

    Striking how Putin is adopting Trump's perceived enemies as his own. The new Russian sanctions list includes people Trump considers adversaries like Letitia James, Brad Raffensperger and the officer who shot Ashli Babbitt even though none has anything to do with Russia policy.
    https://twitter.com/peterbakernyt/status/1660097645657075712

    I was about to call it incredibly random but of course the very lack of randomness is striking.

    Do Putin's people just watch Fox News 24/7 and pick out people hosts whine about? I mean, the Sectetary of State of Georgia only notable internationally because he refused to just give Trump the election? Curious choice.

    Is that official?
    This is just Russia trolling. It's meant to irk.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,580

    Good morning

    Re last thread Sunak's live press conference just now from Hiroshima ducks questions on Braverman

    When he returns to London time for him to take action on the terrible Braverman who is doing him no favours

    On topic

    I think the SNP and in particular independence are in great peril and anything could happen

    Morning Big G. It's quiet here this morning, so why don't we chat amongst ourselves.

    To be honest I don't see there's all that much in this Braverman thing. She got done, as most of us do from time to time, and was embarrassed at the thought of appearing alongside the great unwashed at one of those courses with which I personally am very familiar. She tried to see if she could wriggle out of it, it didn't work: she tried to use a bit of 'fluence and that didn't work either, so she took the points and paid the fine.

    It's no big deal but I think she missed a trick. If she had gone on the course she could have made a virtue of it, telling everyone what a good thing they are (which is true) and how it's helped make her a better driver, better understanding of the issues, blah blah blah. It would have been good publicity, and helped her popularity with that important voter - the oppressed motorist.

    Instead she's managed to make herself look a bit sneaky, again. It's not a resigning issue, in my opinion, but it ain't a great look either. Whatever Labour may say publicly, privately they will be anxious that she remains in Office. She's a great asset to them.

    On the SNP, agree absolutely. The ony question is how low do the SNP go. My guess is 20 seats. Any other offers?
    The strong implication is she wanted to wriggle out of it but realised in the end she couldn't. If she was mad enough to commit any of that to email besides an information seeking 'is it possible to X?' , such as trying to push back on it, then she's in more trouble.

    So unless more emerges she's safe. Especially since she's been lining herself up as a grievance alternative leader candidate.
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,098
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    OT, this is notable.

    Striking how Putin is adopting Trump's perceived enemies as his own. The new Russian sanctions list includes people Trump considers adversaries like Letitia James, Brad Raffensperger and the officer who shot Ashli Babbitt even though none has anything to do with Russia policy.
    https://twitter.com/peterbakernyt/status/1660097645657075712

    I was about to call it incredibly random but of course the very lack of randomness is striking.

    Do Putin's people just watch Fox News 24/7 and pick out people hosts whine about? I mean, the Sectetary of State of Georgia only notable internationally because he refused to just give Trump the election? Curious choice.

    Is that official?
    The simple explanation is he's sending a message to Trump that he is on his side. Hopefully a re-elected Trump will return the favour.
  • Options
    TresTres Posts: 2,289

    Good morning

    Re last thread Sunak's live press conference just now from Hiroshima ducks questions on Braverman

    When he returns to London time for him to take action on the terrible Braverman who is doing him no favours

    On topic

    I think the SNP and in particular independence are in great peril and anything could happen

    Morning Big G. It's quiet here this morning, so why don't we chat amongst ourselves.

    To be honest I don't see there's all that much in this Braverman thing. She got done, as most of us do from time to time, and was embarrassed at the thought of appearing alongside the great unwashed at one of those courses with which I personally am very familiar. She tried to see if she could wriggle out of it, it didn't work: she tried to use a bit of 'fluence and that didn't work either, so she took the points and paid the fine.

    It's no big deal but I think she missed a trick. If she had gone on the course she could have made a virtue of it, telling everyone what a good thing they are (which is true) and how it's helped make her a better driver, better understanding of the issues, blah blah blah. It would have been good publicity, and helped her popularity with that important voter - the oppressed motorist.

    Instead she's managed to make herself look a bit sneaky, again. It's not a resigning issue, in my opinion, but it ain't a great look either. Whatever Labour may say publicly, privately they will be anxious that she remains in Office. She's a great asset to them.

    On the SNP, agree absolutely. The ony question is how low do the SNP go. My guess is 20 seats. Any other offers?
    She was the Attorney General and asked if she could put the fine down as expenses. Whatever 'the right stuff' is she (like so many Johnson appointees) does not have it.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,580

    When does Rishi get back from the summit? Presumably, nothing can happen until then.

    Which makes me wonder if this did come from Team Rishi. If a PM wanted to destroy a minister, a better timeline would surely be

    1. Get the story in the papers.
    2. Furious meeting with minister that night.
    3. Sacked in time for the Sunday morning talk shows.

    The "take advice, due process" thing is hot air. The only thing that matters is whether the PM wants that minister in office or not.

    Yep, Team Sunak leaking the story makes no sense at all as a subsequent failure to fire her just makes him look shifty and weak. A PM who promises to put honesty and integrity at the heart of everything simply does not tolerate what Braverman has done.

    That was just a slogan to try to set his image as the clean new boy on the block. Sure, he has forced out a few since then, but it was with the standard PM reluctance at being forced to do so.

    And each time it's only made him weaker with colleagues without making him more popular with the public, so from his perspective there's little benefit to being hardline on ethics unless someone's position is truly untenable.
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,573
    It’s not the any

    Good Morning, everyone.

    The (very) silly feature of the Braverman debacle is that had she attended a speeding course it would have demonstrated a commitment to equality before the law, and a break with Boris-ism.
    Now it just seems as though she (especially) believes she shouldn’t be treated the same as “ordinary” folk.

    That’s a good point and a much more effective attack if the opposition wish to take it.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,976
    Farooq said:

    Can I ask a stupid question? There's been some talk over the years of the idea of a graduate tax. What does this actually entail? Do they mean students who start after a certain cut off point will have a special tax code that means their income tax will be higher? Or does it apply to anybody who has graduated irrespective of when?
    I can't quite believe anybody would be stupid enough to make earlier graduates pay, but it's on my mind and I can't seem to find details about the idea.

    Unless any party seriously proposes it, the details are moot. There is a third possibility which is to rely on income tax, perhaps with more progressive rates, to capture any excess earnings of graduates, like in the old days.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,580

    Mr. Romford, that's true but it does cut the other way too. 'Elite' often means 'very rich people who don't share my opinion. They're out of touch, not like me'.

    It's becoming as vague and unhelpful as terms like 'progressive' which is just an almost adult way of saying 'goodies'.

    Agreed. Part if it is attempts to distinguish from 'cultural elite' which while not entirely without merit is severely overplayed by people like Goodwin into some nearly religious explanation for why no other elite indicators - wealth, political power - should count.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,353
    kle4 said:

    In recent times I always assume the SNP won't fall as much as I would like, so I can be pleasantly surprised if wrong long in 2017. FF43 summarises it well.

    This bottle scheme business is in the news today and seems odd - apparently they urgently need exemption to a UK Act in order to do it, but only requested this in March of this year. Obviously opportunity is being taken by the government to make them sweat about it, but is there a good procedural reason the request was so late in the day? Perhaps they could not request until everything was ready to go?

    It is the thick Greens idea and it is absolutely bonkers. Slater is so stupid she would not realise she had to actually do something.
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    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,411
    FF43 said:

    No-one has got rich betting against the SNP for the past decade or more. Could it change this time? It sure can. But the fundamentals remain strong for them IMO.

    Do they? No independence anytime soon...
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,384
    Farooq said:

    Can I ask a stupid question? There's been some talk over the years of the idea of a graduate tax. What does this actually entail? Do they mean students who start after a certain cut off point will have a special tax code that means their income tax will be higher? Or does it apply to anybody who has graduated irrespective of when?
    I can't quite believe anybody would be stupid enough to make earlier graduates pay, but it's on my mind and I can't seem to find details about the idea.

    The current tax, sorry student loan scheme, is in some respects a graduate tax, obviously, is it not? With some very odd behaviour admittedly, and with payment limited to actual drawings plus an unfair rate of interest.

    But somewhat to my surprise there have been proposals for a pure g. t. without such a limit. Justine Greening, for one. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graduate_tax

  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,943

    Good Morning, everyone.

    The (very) silly feature of the Braverman debacle is that had she attended a speeding course it would have demonstrated a commitment to equality before the law, and a break with Boris-ism.
    Now it just seems as though she (especially) believes she shouldn’t be treated the same as “ordinary” folk.

    Braverman and Mogg are useful to Sunak as the face of National Conservatism, precisely because they are useless.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,138
    edited May 2023

    Farooq said:

    Can I ask a stupid question? There's been some talk over the years of the idea of a graduate tax. What does this actually entail? Do they mean students who start after a certain cut off point will have a special tax code that means their income tax will be higher? Or does it apply to anybody who has graduated irrespective of when?
    I can't quite believe anybody would be stupid enough to make earlier graduates pay, but it's on my mind and I can't seem to find details about the idea.

    Unless any party seriously proposes it, the details are moot. There is a third possibility which is to rely on income tax, perhaps with more progressive rates, to capture any excess earnings of graduates, like in the old days.
    The details aren't moot. If it's a tax to replace fees for those who are starting now, I'm probably in favour. If it's a tax on all previous graduates I will literally move abroad. No way am I being made pay an extra tax for tuition when I have actually paid tuition fees.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,384

    Farooq said:

    Can I ask a stupid question? There's been some talk over the years of the idea of a graduate tax. What does this actually entail? Do they mean students who start after a certain cut off point will have a special tax code that means their income tax will be higher? Or does it apply to anybody who has graduated irrespective of when?
    I can't quite believe anybody would be stupid enough to make earlier graduates pay, but it's on my mind and I can't seem to find details about the idea.

    Unless any party seriously proposes it, the details are moot. There is a third possibility which is to rely on income tax, perhaps with more progressive rates, to capture any excess earnings of graduates, like in the old days.
    Special income tax for graduates? Hmm, on that logic one would need an apprenticeship tax to catch the rich plumbers ...
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    TresTres Posts: 2,289
    Jonathan said:

    Good Morning, everyone.

    The (very) silly feature of the Braverman debacle is that had she attended a speeding course it would have demonstrated a commitment to equality before the law, and a break with Boris-ism.
    Now it just seems as though she (especially) believes she shouldn’t be treated the same as “ordinary” folk.

    Braverman and Mogg are useful to Sunak as the face of National Conservatism, precisely because they are useless.
    I hear they prefer to be called the Nat Cs.
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    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,138
    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Can I ask a stupid question? There's been some talk over the years of the idea of a graduate tax. What does this actually entail? Do they mean students who start after a certain cut off point will have a special tax code that means their income tax will be higher? Or does it apply to anybody who has graduated irrespective of when?
    I can't quite believe anybody would be stupid enough to make earlier graduates pay, but it's on my mind and I can't seem to find details about the idea.

    The current tax, sorry student loan scheme, is in some respects a graduate tax, obviously, is it not? With some very odd behaviour admittedly, and with payment limited to actual drawings plus an unfair rate of interest.

    But somewhat to my surprise there have been proposals for a pure g. t. without such a limit. Justine Greening, for one. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graduate_tax

    Well, if the tax is on earnings and you have very poor earnings during your life, you wouldn't pay it back and wouldn't have a debt hanging over you. So there are potentially psychological and pecuniary differences between this and a loan.
    But the devil is in the detail, and that's what I'm missing.
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    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,411
    Jonathan said:

    Good Morning, everyone.

    The (very) silly feature of the Braverman debacle is that had she attended a speeding course it would have demonstrated a commitment to equality before the law, and a break with Boris-ism.
    Now it just seems as though she (especially) believes she shouldn’t be treated the same as “ordinary” folk.

    Braverman and Mogg are useful to Sunak as the face of National Conservatism, precisely because they are useless.
    Have you got over your irritation of being without water for a few hours? I am the other side of the A24 to you. It was the pumping station at Hardham that failed... nevertheless S Water delivered bottled water to us which was odd.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,860

    ydoethur said:

    When does Rishi get back from the summit? Presumably, nothing can happen until then.

    Which makes me wonder if this did come from Team Rishi. If a PM wanted to destroy a minister, a better timeline would surely be

    1. Get the story in the papers.
    2. Furious meeting with minister that night.
    3. Sacked in time for the Sunday morning talk shows.

    The "take advice, due process" thing is hot air. The only thing that matters is whether the PM wants that minister in office or not.

    Yep, Team Sunak leaking the story makes no sense at all as a subsequent failure to fire her just makes him look shifty and weak. A PM who promises to put honesty and integrity at the heart of everything simply does not tolerate what Braverman has done.

    He *is* shifty and weak.

    I'm reminded of Sergeant Berrigan's acid commentary on Lord Robin Holloway: 'You made him look like a bloody idiot, sir, but that ain't difficult because he is a bloody idiot.'
    Or one of the footnotes from the Jim Hacker diaries. Paraphrasing,

    It must have hurt Sir Humphrey to be described as shifty and weak. It must have hurt more to be so described by someone as shifty and weak as Jim Hacker. What would have hurt most was the knowledge that Hacker was right.
    I hate to be pedantic* but this is the actual quote:

    It must have been painful for the Foreign Office to be called weak, indecisive and stupid. It must have been more painful to be called that by somebody as weak, indecisive and stupid as Hacker. What would have made it most painful was that Hacker was correct.

    From A Diplomatic Incident.

    *I realise this is the most unconvincing lie since Dominic Cummings claimed he drove to Durham for childcare reasons.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,580
    Jonathan said:

    Norman Tebbit in his prime would have been quite happy as a National Conservative Trumpian.

    Arguably this is just part of reheated Thatcherism, but critically with the economic and work ethic part of Thatcherism written out. Compared to Thatcherism , National Conservatism is dumb, economically illiterate and lazy.

    From a casual glance the whole thing seemed to be just a series of people going "it's not fair things have changed!"

    Like Momentum and others before them the key thing seems to be that the true enemy is internal - those not fighting external opponents in the right way or hard enough.

    It seems like something you do in opposition whilst battling out for what direction a new leader should go.
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,098
    Jonathan said:

    Norman Tebbit in his prime would have been quite happy as a National Conservative Trumpian.

    Arguably this is just part of reheated Thatcherism, but critically with the economic and work ethic part of Thatcherism written out. Compared to Thatcherism , National Conservatism is dumb, economically illiterate and lazy.

    I don't really agree. I think it is a traditionalist attack on free market Toryism. Whatever the beef with the trade unions, the Tories (in their view) became too fixated on the individual. It may have suited them at the time to jump on some of the trends from the 60s but it's gone too far.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,860
    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Can I ask a stupid question? There's been some talk over the years of the idea of a graduate tax. What does this actually entail? Do they mean students who start after a certain cut off point will have a special tax code that means their income tax will be higher? Or does it apply to anybody who has graduated irrespective of when?
    I can't quite believe anybody would be stupid enough to make earlier graduates pay, but it's on my mind and I can't seem to find details about the idea.

    Unless any party seriously proposes it, the details are moot. There is a third possibility which is to rely on income tax, perhaps with more progressive rates, to capture any excess earnings of graduates, like in the old days.
    Special income tax for graduates? Hmm, on that logic one would need an apprenticeship tax to catch the rich plumbers ...
    The policy would lead to chaos.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,458
    The SNP are being hit by the Labour revival under Starmer as much as the Tories are, while also having been beset by internal problems and leadership changes like the Tories are. Like it or not too Salmond and Sturgeon were the big personalities and election winners for the SNP, much as Cameron and Boris were for the Conservatives and now all are gone making Labour's job easier.

    It could well be Labour gains from the SNP are enough to give Starmer a small majority UK wide after Labour gains from the Conservatives lose the Tories their majority
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,976
    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Can I ask a stupid question? There's been some talk over the years of the idea of a graduate tax. What does this actually entail? Do they mean students who start after a certain cut off point will have a special tax code that means their income tax will be higher? Or does it apply to anybody who has graduated irrespective of when?
    I can't quite believe anybody would be stupid enough to make earlier graduates pay, but it's on my mind and I can't seem to find details about the idea.

    Unless any party seriously proposes it, the details are moot. There is a third possibility which is to rely on income tax, perhaps with more progressive rates, to capture any excess earnings of graduates, like in the old days.
    Special income tax for graduates? Hmm, on that logic one would need an apprenticeship tax to catch the rich plumbers ...
    No, that would be ordinary income tax. If it is the case that graduates earn more than non-graduates, they will pay more income tax and more higher-rate income tax. This will happen naturally without any need for special graduate taxes. Likewise rich plumbers.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,580
    Jonathan said:

    Good Morning, everyone.

    The (very) silly feature of the Braverman debacle is that had she attended a speeding course it would have demonstrated a commitment to equality before the law, and a break with Boris-ism.
    Now it just seems as though she (especially) believes she shouldn’t be treated the same as “ordinary” folk.

    Braverman and Mogg are useful to Sunak as the face of National Conservatism, precisely because they are useless.
    Except Braverman is popular with grassroots now, but wasn't 6 months ago. They do not appear to be associating her with failure, but blaming Rishi. If she goes, she will find a ready audience if she blames him too.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,458
    Arnold Schwarzanneger just been on Kuenssberg followed by Therese Coffey, quite a contrast
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,232

    Farooq said:

    Can I ask a stupid question? There's been some talk over the years of the idea of a graduate tax. What does this actually entail? Do they mean students who start after a certain cut off point will have a special tax code that means their income tax will be higher? Or does it apply to anybody who has graduated irrespective of when?
    I can't quite believe anybody would be stupid enough to make earlier graduates pay, but it's on my mind and I can't seem to find details about the idea.

    Unless any party seriously proposes it, the details are moot. There is a third possibility which is to rely on income tax, perhaps with more progressive rates, to capture any excess earnings of graduates, like in the old days.
    If you want to encourage emigration of graduates, and encourage large numbers of British students to study abroad, then a graduate income tax is definitely the right way to go about it.
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    kjhkjh Posts: 10,777
    HYUFD said:

    Arnold Schwarzanneger just been on Kuenssberg followed by Therese Coffey, quite a contrast

    Oh I don't know :smile:
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,943

    Jonathan said:

    Good Morning, everyone.

    The (very) silly feature of the Braverman debacle is that had she attended a speeding course it would have demonstrated a commitment to equality before the law, and a break with Boris-ism.
    Now it just seems as though she (especially) believes she shouldn’t be treated the same as “ordinary” folk.

    Braverman and Mogg are useful to Sunak as the face of National Conservatism, precisely because they are useless.
    Have you got over your irritation of being without water for a few hours? I am the other side of the A24 to you. It was the pumping station at Hardham that failed... nevertheless S Water delivered bottled water to us which was odd.
    This sort of thing never used to happen. Three times in as many years. There is less redundancy in the system. Not good.
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,098
    kle4 said:

    Mr. Romford, that's true but it does cut the other way too. 'Elite' often means 'very rich people who don't share my opinion. They're out of touch, not like me'.

    It's becoming as vague and unhelpful as terms like 'progressive' which is just an almost adult way of saying 'goodies'.

    Agreed. Part if it is attempts to distinguish from 'cultural elite' which while not entirely without merit is severely overplayed by people like Goodwin into some nearly religious explanation for why no other elite indicators - wealth, political power - should count.
    Presumably the funders wouldn't be keen to talk about wealth? From the bits I've seen and I don't think it should be dismissed lightly, the likes of Kaufman Goodwin and Melanie Phillips are not ignorami, they take a pretty dim view of the those in political power i.e useless Tories.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,943
    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Norman Tebbit in his prime would have been quite happy as a National Conservative Trumpian.

    Arguably this is just part of reheated Thatcherism, but critically with the economic and work ethic part of Thatcherism written out. Compared to Thatcherism , National Conservatism is dumb, economically illiterate and lazy.

    From a casual glance the whole thing seemed to be just a series of people going "it's not fair things have changed!"

    Like Momentum and others before them the key thing seems to be that the true enemy is internal - those not fighting external opponents in the right way or hard enough.

    It seems like something you do in opposition whilst battling out for what direction a new leader should go.
    Moggmentum?
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    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,573
    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Good Morning, everyone.

    The (very) silly feature of the Braverman debacle is that had she attended a speeding course it would have demonstrated a commitment to equality before the law, and a break with Boris-ism.
    Now it just seems as though she (especially) believes she shouldn’t be treated the same as “ordinary” folk.

    Braverman and Mogg are useful to Sunak as the face of National Conservatism, precisely because they are useless.
    Except Braverman is popular with grassroots now, but wasn't 6 months ago. They do not appear to be associating her with failure, but blaming Rishi. If she goes, she will find a ready audience if she blames him too.
    But she isn’t even that popular with the grassroots
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,138
    HYUFD said:

    Arnold Schwarzanneger just been on Kuenssberg followed by Therese Coffey, quite a contrast

    I eat Green Berets for breakfast. And right now, I'm very hungry!
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,906
    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Norman Tebbit in his prime would have been quite happy as a National Conservative Trumpian.

    Arguably this is just part of reheated Thatcherism, but critically with the economic and work ethic part of Thatcherism written out. Compared to Thatcherism , National Conservatism is dumb, economically illiterate and lazy.

    From a casual glance the whole thing seemed to be just a series of people going "it's not fair things have changed!"

    Like Momentum and others before them the key thing seems to be that the true enemy is internal - those not fighting external opponents in the right way or hard enough.

    It seems like something you do in opposition whilst battling out for what direction a new leader should go.
    Moggmentum?
    There's a twat in Doncaster who has that tattooed on his chest.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,580
    edited May 2023
    DougSeal said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Good Morning, everyone.

    The (very) silly feature of the Braverman debacle is that had she attended a speeding course it would have demonstrated a commitment to equality before the law, and a break with Boris-ism.
    Now it just seems as though she (especially) believes she shouldn’t be treated the same as “ordinary” folk.

    Braverman and Mogg are useful to Sunak as the face of National Conservatism, precisely because they are useless.
    Except Braverman is popular with grassroots now, but wasn't 6 months ago. They do not appear to be associating her with failure, but blaming Rishi. If she goes, she will find a ready audience if she blames him too.
    But she isn’t even that popular with the grassroots
    She rates highly in ConHome league tables. By grassroots I actually meant party members.

    And if says she was ousted because Sunak wouldn't let her be tougher on migration see her popularity there explode further.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,042
    Just seen those Sunak press conference clips. Dire doesn’t begin to cover it. They had hours to prepare a response. How on earth did they manage to come up with something so bad?
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,976
    Sandpit said:

    Farooq said:

    Can I ask a stupid question? There's been some talk over the years of the idea of a graduate tax. What does this actually entail? Do they mean students who start after a certain cut off point will have a special tax code that means their income tax will be higher? Or does it apply to anybody who has graduated irrespective of when?
    I can't quite believe anybody would be stupid enough to make earlier graduates pay, but it's on my mind and I can't seem to find details about the idea.

    Unless any party seriously proposes it, the details are moot. There is a third possibility which is to rely on income tax, perhaps with more progressive rates, to capture any excess earnings of graduates, like in the old days.
    If you want to encourage emigration of graduates, and encourage large numbers of British students to study abroad, then a graduate income tax is definitely the right way to go about it.
    That is more-or-less what we have now and the sky has not fallen in. The third way is just to rely on ordinary income tax. If graduates earn more, they will pay more income tax. If anyone earns more, they will pay more income tax.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,820
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Arnold Schwarzanneger just been on Kuenssberg followed by Therese Coffey, quite a contrast

    Oh I don't know :smile:
    An automaton that can't be killed, and Arnold...
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,820

    Just seen those Sunak press conference clips. Dire doesn’t begin to cover it. They had hours to prepare a response. How on earth did they manage to come up with something so bad?

    They are not very good at their jobs...
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,906
    Off topic: Good luck to The Heed this afternoon in the FA Trophy final.

    Second Tyneside team to reach a cup final this season.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,820

    HYUFD said:

    Arnold Schwarzanneger just been on Kuenssberg followed by Therese Coffey, quite a contrast

    I once met Arnold Schwarznegger in HMV London, ironically I was looking for the The Terminator Blu Ray Boxset, I was struggling to find it, and he helpfully told me it was in aisle b, back.
    Your coat. Don't come back...
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,973
    And then some…..

    Nicola Sturgeon is completely lacking in self-awareness when she complains of polarised debate

    https://www.holyrood.com/editors-column/view,nicola-sturgeon-is-completely-lacking-in-selfawareness-when-she-complains-of-polarised-debate
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,027

    And then some…..

    Nicola Sturgeon is completely lacking in self-awareness when she complains of polarised debate

    https://www.holyrood.com/editors-column/view,nicola-sturgeon-is-completely-lacking-in-selfawareness-when-she-complains-of-polarised-debate

    My reaction to the SNP shit show.


  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,976
    Army had to hire bearskin caps from film studios and fancy dress shops for Coronation
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/05/20/army-hired-bearskin-caps-spare-fancy-dress-film-studios/ (£££)

    Tory defence cuts?
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    UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 792
    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Can I ask a stupid question? There's been some talk over the years of the idea of a graduate tax. What does this actually entail? Do they mean students who start after a certain cut off point will have a special tax code that means their income tax will be higher? Or does it apply to anybody who has graduated irrespective of when?
    I can't quite believe anybody would be stupid enough to make earlier graduates pay, but it's on my mind and I can't seem to find details about the idea.

    The current tax, sorry student loan scheme, is in some respects a graduate tax, obviously, is it not? With some very odd behaviour admittedly, and with payment limited to actual drawings plus an unfair rate of interest.

    But somewhat to my surprise there have been proposals for a pure g. t. without such a limit. Justine Greening, for one. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graduate_tax

    I feel like I'm on a bit of a journey RE tuition fees and loans. I'm beginning to suspect this half-market system isn't sustainable and so you can go back to the days where the top x% get fully funded places or the whole thing is opened up with fees set less by the Government and more by the market.

    The advantage of the former is that it won't load students with debt but, absent Herculean political will, would result in more restricted access to University (something I believe is neither in the interests of students nor in the interests of the country).

    The latter route would see fees rise, and in some cases pretty astronomically. I'm not in favour of removing the cap on fees entirely, but to a point where Universities would actually start to differentiate themselves on fees. This would allow Universities some breathing space and give them a lever to raise some income. The rate and periods of repayment, interest etc would all need to be optimised based political objectives (no write-off, for example?) but it would be likely that a substantial number of loans will never fully be repaid, leaving the tax payer on the hook for some of the book. In that case the loan acts as a kind of subsidy, which I think is as fair as possible. Under this system, Universities will be given a mechanism for increasing their own funding and, for students, University will remain 'free at the point of use.' The problem then is selling the whole thing to debt-averse students, who might come from poorer backgrounds, that it's worth it. But that's a job for Universities.

    Then I read all that I've written and wonder what happened to me, man. Marketisation of Universities? Fuck me!

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    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,167
    Tres said:

    Jonathan said:

    Good Morning, everyone.

    The (very) silly feature of the Braverman debacle is that had she attended a speeding course it would have demonstrated a commitment to equality before the law, and a break with Boris-ism.
    Now it just seems as though she (especially) believes she shouldn’t be treated the same as “ordinary” folk.

    Braverman and Mogg are useful to Sunak as the face of National Conservatism, precisely because they are useless.
    I hear they prefer to be called the Nat Cs.
    Lol. From the Nasty Party to the Nat C party, just inching ever closer.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,027

    Army had to hire bearskin caps from film studios and fancy dress shops for Coronation
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/05/20/army-hired-bearskin-caps-spare-fancy-dress-film-studios/ (£££)

    Tory defence cuts?

    Political correctness gone mad.

    You cannot kill animals for their furs and skins.
This discussion has been closed.