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Biden remains strong in the betting to win WH2024 – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,917
edited May 2023 in General
imageBiden remains strong in the betting to win WH2024 – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,462
    Poor old Ron De Santis. Couldn't have happened to a nicer guy.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883
    20% for AN Other. I guess if either Trump, or Biden, has a major health event in the next six months the whole thing will be thrown open.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,034

    Poor old Ron De Santis. Couldn't have happened to a nicer guy.

    I know.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,034
    edited May 2023
    Sunak out, I guess the man who uses helicopters all the time doesn't appreciate what us working class Northerners have to endure with the trains.

    Ministers have quietly scrapped plans for the biggest shake-up of the railways since privatisation, The Times has learnt.

    Plans for the creation of Great British Railways (GBR), put forward by Boris Johnson as a way to fix Britain’s rail network, have been watered down by No 10.

    Officials at the Department for Transport (DfT) working on the new body, which was due to take over the running of the entire network, have been told it is not a priority for the government and will not be brought forward in the King’s Speech.

    “Those working on it have been told it’s now unlikely to get a legislative slot,” a source said. “Without it they won’t be able to fully create the body, as it requires primary legislation.”

    It is understood there is a battle between the DfT and Downing Street over its creation. Transport ministers are pushing for it to be given parliamentary time but there is pushback from Rishi Sunak, the prime minister, who does not consider the railways a priority for the final session of parliament before the general election.

    A source said: “The simple fact is Sunak doesn’t see the railways as a priority. He was in the Treasury during Covid when all he saw was the railways costing eye-watering amounts of money. He’d ask why so much was being spent to ‘ship fresh air’ around the country.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-boris-johnson-great-british-railways-rmnm23grx
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567
    Westie said:

    Great headline today in British regime media: "Queen Elizabeth II: Funeral cost government £162m"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-65636772

    No, mateys, it cost the British people that sum. And we weren't consulted.

    Enough to fund 5,000 nurses for a whole year.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883

    Sunak out, I guess the man who uses helicopters all the time doesn't appreciate what us working class Northerners have to endure with the trains.

    Ministers have quietly scrapped plans for the biggest shake-up of the railways since privatisation, The Times has learnt.

    Plans for the creation of Great British Railways (GBR), put forward by Boris Johnson as a way to fix Britain’s rail network, have been watered down by No 10.

    Officials at the Department for Transport (DfT) working on the new body, which was due to take over the running of the entire network, have been told it is not a priority for the government and will not be brought forward in the King’s Speech.

    “Those working on it have been told it’s now unlikely to get a legislative slot,” a source said. “Without it they won’t be able to fully create the body, as it requires primary legislation.”

    It is understood there is a battle between the DfT and Downing Street over its creation. Transport ministers are pushing for it to be given parliamentary time but there is pushback from Rishi Sunak, the prime minister, who does not consider the railways a priority for the final session of parliament before the general election.

    A source said: “The simple fact is Sunak doesn’t see the railways as a priority. He was in the Treasury during Covid when all he saw was the railways costing eye-watering amounts of money. He’d ask why so much was being spent to ‘ship fresh air’ around the country.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-boris-johnson-great-british-railways-rmnm23grx

    I wonder what will be a priority - another immigration bill and another police powers bill? I'm guessing there will be a "Labour are on the side of layabouts and shirkers" bill, and perhaps there will be an anodyne "only Tories want to build houses - but definitely not near any of our voters" bill.

    Am I being too cynical, or has any legislation been passed in the last couple of years that wasn't a complete waste of space?
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567

    Westie said:

    Great headline today in British regime media: "Queen Elizabeth II: Funeral cost government £162m"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-65636772

    No, mateys, it cost the British people that sum. And we weren't consulted.

    Given virtually the whole world watched it, and it projected British identity, and self-confidence on the world stage, including our ties to the Commonwealth, how much value do you think it generated in terms of "soft power" projection?
    Is that the same Commonwealth where most countries are republics OR have indigenous non-Windsor monarchies?
    Yes, you keep repeating this ad-nauseum as if it's some sort of killer point.

    Spoiler: it isn't.
    Yes it is, only 15 Commonwealth members have Chuck has head of state.
    That’s like mocking La Francophonie because Emmanuel Macron is only the head of state of Andorra.
    Actually, it's better to mock La Francophonie regarding the number of mother-tongue French-speakers compared to mother-tongue English-speakers.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,681

    Poor old Ron De Santis. Couldn't have happened to a nicer guy.

    I see Disney have cancelled the transfer of jobs they were moving to Florida , they are going to shaft him even more.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,022
    Farooq said:

    What does the "traded" figure actually mean? If I back Desantis for £10 at 9/1, is that £10 traded, or £90, or £100, or something else?

    That's a very good question actually
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,681

    Sunak out, I guess the man who uses helicopters all the time doesn't appreciate what us working class Northerners have to endure with the trains.

    Ministers have quietly scrapped plans for the biggest shake-up of the railways since privatisation, The Times has learnt.

    Plans for the creation of Great British Railways (GBR), put forward by Boris Johnson as a way to fix Britain’s rail network, have been watered down by No 10.

    Officials at the Department for Transport (DfT) working on the new body, which was due to take over the running of the entire network, have been told it is not a priority for the government and will not be brought forward in the King’s Speech.

    “Those working on it have been told it’s now unlikely to get a legislative slot,” a source said. “Without it they won’t be able to fully create the body, as it requires primary legislation.”

    It is understood there is a battle between the DfT and Downing Street over its creation. Transport ministers are pushing for it to be given parliamentary time but there is pushback from Rishi Sunak, the prime minister, who does not consider the railways a priority for the final session of parliament before the general election.

    A source said: “The simple fact is Sunak doesn’t see the railways as a priority. He was in the Treasury during Covid when all he saw was the railways costing eye-watering amounts of money. He’d ask why so much was being spent to ‘ship fresh air’ around the country.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-boris-johnson-great-british-railways-rmnm23grx

    Plus the arse will never have had to use a train. Would mean him mixing with the great unwashed. He prefers to use private helicopters.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,737
    edited May 2023
    Farooq said:

    What does the "traded" figure actually mean? If I back Desantis for £10 at 9/1, is that £10 traded, or £90, or £100, or something else?

    Your £10 and the other guy’s £100, for £110, or average out at £55? So many ways to represent it.

    I would say it’s £10 though.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,194
    Sandpit said:

    Farooq said:

    What does the "traded" figure actually mean? If I back Desantis for £10 at 9/1, is that £10 traded, or £90, or £100, or something else?

    Your £10 and the other guy’s £100, for £110, or average out at £55? So many ways to represent it.

    I would say it’s £10 though.
    Betfair double count it.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,034
    Bankers may win the war for Ukraine.

    Russia’s former first minister for the economy has predicted that western sanctions over the war in Ukraine will push the country into a financial crisis next year.

    Andrey Nechayev, 70, warned businessmen attending the Ekaterinburg financial forum this week that the country’s finances were “in the shit”. “And what’s worse is that we’ve decided to settle down there,” he said, in a rare high-level criticism of President Putin’s policies.

    The comment drew nervous smiles and was applauded by one member of the audience; in the oppressive environment in wartime Russia dissenters are frequently arrested, tortured and poisoned.

    Nechayev added that while food franchises like “McDonald’s can be replaced by blini [Russian pancakes], high-tech products can’t”.

    The former minister, in office from 1992 to 1993 after the fall of the Soviet Union, said that Russia had already exceeded its planned budget deficit for the year in the first four months of 2023. While the economy had enough cash reserves to see out the remaining months, it would have to begin borrowing next year, he said.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russia-economy-putin-war-ukraine-kremlin-cfgv557lk
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,503
    edited May 2023
    Latest Yougov US has it Biden 41% DeSantis 41% but Trump 44% Biden 42% so don't rule out Trump yet.

    Ipsos better for Biden but still relatively close, Biden 44% Trump 38%


    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106
    No-one ever got rich betting against Joe Biden.
  • Options
    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    Bankers may win the war for Ukraine.

    Russia’s former first minister for the economy has predicted that western sanctions over the war in Ukraine will push the country into a financial crisis next year.

    Andrey Nechayev, 70, warned businessmen attending the Ekaterinburg financial forum this week that the country’s finances were “in the shit”. “And what’s worse is that we’ve decided to settle down there,” he said, in a rare high-level criticism of President Putin’s policies.

    The comment drew nervous smiles and was applauded by one member of the audience; in the oppressive environment in wartime Russia dissenters are frequently arrested, tortured and poisoned.

    Nechayev added that while food franchises like “McDonald’s can be replaced by blini [Russian pancakes], high-tech products can’t”.

    The former minister, in office from 1992 to 1993 after the fall of the Soviet Union, said that Russia had already exceeded its planned budget deficit for the year in the first four months of 2023. While the economy had enough cash reserves to see out the remaining months, it would have to begin borrowing next year, he said.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russia-economy-putin-war-ukraine-kremlin-cfgv557lk

    Is it really from The Times? Or have they mixed up reportage with Tom Clancy's Red Storm Rising? ;)
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,111
    edited May 2023
    It seems to me as if Sunak is, bit by bit, seeking to alienate different groups of voters, as promise after promise is broken:

    Railways? No thanks.
    Housebuilding? Not near me, thanks.
    Sewage in the sea and rivers? Not really our problem - blame our friends and donors in the water industry.
    Tax cuts? No, freeze the thresholds.
    End leaseholds? No, changed our mind (and people who live in flats are mainly urban Labour voters, so they can do one).
    Cut immigration to the tens of thousands? No, let's aim for a million.

    Soon, the only Tory voters left will be rural or suburban car-driving, outright house-owning, retired or rich folk who don't go swimming.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106

    Sunak out, I guess the man who uses helicopters all the time doesn't appreciate what us working class Northerners have to endure with the trains.

    Ministers have quietly scrapped plans for the biggest shake-up of the railways since privatisation, The Times has learnt.

    Plans for the creation of Great British Railways (GBR), put forward by Boris Johnson as a way to fix Britain’s rail network, have been watered down by No 10.

    Officials at the Department for Transport (DfT) working on the new body, which was due to take over the running of the entire network, have been told it is not a priority for the government and will not be brought forward in the King’s Speech.

    “Those working on it have been told it’s now unlikely to get a legislative slot,” a source said. “Without it they won’t be able to fully create the body, as it requires primary legislation.”

    It is understood there is a battle between the DfT and Downing Street over its creation. Transport ministers are pushing for it to be given parliamentary time but there is pushback from Rishi Sunak, the prime minister, who does not consider the railways a priority for the final session of parliament before the general election.

    A source said: “The simple fact is Sunak doesn’t see the railways as a priority. He was in the Treasury during Covid when all he saw was the railways costing eye-watering amounts of money. He’d ask why so much was being spent to ‘ship fresh air’ around the country.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-boris-johnson-great-british-railways-rmnm23grx

    I wonder what will be a priority - another immigration bill and another police powers bill? I'm guessing there will be a "Labour are on the side of layabouts and shirkers" bill, and perhaps there will be an anodyne "only Tories want to build houses - but definitely not near any of our voters" bill.

    Am I being too cynical, or has any legislation been passed in the last couple of years that wasn't a complete waste of space?
    I doubt it's just parliamentary time. He's probably trying to get the barnacles off the boat and create fiscal room for more politically effective spending on the NHS and tax cuts, so has to be tough elsewhere.

    This source is just briefing against him.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,677

    Sunak out, I guess the man who uses helicopters all the time doesn't appreciate what us working class Northerners have to endure with the trains.

    Ministers have quietly scrapped plans for the biggest shake-up of the railways since privatisation, The Times has learnt.

    Plans for the creation of Great British Railways (GBR), put forward by Boris Johnson as a way to fix Britain’s rail network, have been watered down by No 10.

    Officials at the Department for Transport (DfT) working on the new body, which was due to take over the running of the entire network, have been told it is not a priority for the government and will not be brought forward in the King’s Speech.

    “Those working on it have been told it’s now unlikely to get a legislative slot,” a source said. “Without it they won’t be able to fully create the body, as it requires primary legislation.”

    It is understood there is a battle between the DfT and Downing Street over its creation. Transport ministers are pushing for it to be given parliamentary time but there is pushback from Rishi Sunak, the prime minister, who does not consider the railways a priority for the final session of parliament before the general election.

    A source said: “The simple fact is Sunak doesn’t see the railways as a priority. He was in the Treasury during Covid when all he saw was the railways costing eye-watering amounts of money. He’d ask why so much was being spent to ‘ship fresh air’ around the country.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-boris-johnson-great-british-railways-rmnm23grx

    I wonder what will be a priority - another immigration bill and another police powers bill? I'm guessing there will be a "Labour are on the side of layabouts and shirkers" bill, and perhaps there will be an anodyne "only Tories want to build houses - but definitely not near any of our voters" bill.

    Am I being too cynical, or has any legislation been passed in the last couple of years that wasn't a complete waste of space?
    There's not been much of anything really; the 2019 manifesto was skimpy to the point of near indecency.

    Strange to think that a government that must be able to feel the Grim Reaper's breath on its neck is apparently so apathetic. It has the potential to be a long 17 months.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202
    <<b class="Bold">blockquote class="Quote" rel="TimS">

    YouGov
    @YouGov
    Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (9-10 May)
    Con: 25% (-1 from 3-4 May)
    Lab: 43% (=)
    Lib Dem: 11% (+1)
    Green: 8% (+1)
    Reform UK: 7% (+1)
    SNP: 3% (-1)

    LLG 61 plays RefCon 32. In the pack. Ref and Green overrepresented in the sample hence the relatively low Tory and Lab scores.

    By my maths it’s 62. I see anything above 60 unfeasibly high and just not happening at a general election.

    I also don’t add the reform to Tory. These people were regularly not voting Tory till Boris came along. Farage UKIP never had a great general election, but got huge votes in other elections. Boris swallowed them whole during the last election campaign. Red kippers could more likely return to red than go blue, whilst a great many more may not vote Tory on basis of a botched Brexit UK not as promised got rich from, and far too much Tory Party sleazily helping themselves - even without a Reform candidate they are more likely to stay home than vote Tory.

    Adding all Reform to Tory to get 33% is the most desperate dumbass shit around at the moment.
  • Options
    DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 503
    Farooq said:

    What does the "traded" figure actually mean? If I back Desantis for £10 at 9/1, is that £10 traded, or £90, or £100, or something else?

    £20. It's frigging nuts.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,194
    HYUFD said:

    Latest Yougov US has it Biden 41% DeSantis 41% but Trump 44% Biden 42% so don't rule out Trump yet.

    Ipsos better for Biden but still relatively close, Biden 44% Trump 38%


    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

    Well the second time for Trump won't be so much of a shock. First time round he was odds on to be out in a week (roughly - details may escape me).

    On the face of it I think these two elderly fools are entirely unsuited to high office. They've both done ok though, and that means that either I'm a fool, or there are others really running things. Let's not get too carried away with the former, it's uninteresting. The latter though is of interest.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106
    Biden's price for the Democratic nomination is inexplicable.
  • Options
    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    malcolmg said:

    Poor old Ron De Santis. Couldn't have happened to a nicer guy.

    I see Disney have cancelled the transfer of jobs they were moving to Florida , they are going to shaft him even more.
    Good
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,763
    ...
    HYUFD said:

    Latest Yougov US has it Biden 41% DeSantis 41% but Trump 44% Biden 42% so don't rule out Trump yet.

    Ipsos better for Biden but still relatively close, Biden 44% Trump 38%


    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

    I am surprised you are such a Trump enthusiast considering the serious nature of some of the sexual accusations a civil court in New York decided were very credible.
  • Options
    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    Sunak out, I guess the man who uses helicopters all the time doesn't appreciate what us working class Northerners have to endure with the trains.

    Ministers have quietly scrapped plans for the biggest shake-up of the railways since privatisation, The Times has learnt.

    Plans for the creation of Great British Railways (GBR), put forward by Boris Johnson as a way to fix Britain’s rail network, have been watered down by No 10.

    Officials at the Department for Transport (DfT) working on the new body, which was due to take over the running of the entire network, have been told it is not a priority for the government and will not be brought forward in the King’s Speech.

    “Those working on it have been told it’s now unlikely to get a legislative slot,” a source said. “Without it they won’t be able to fully create the body, as it requires primary legislation.”

    It is understood there is a battle between the DfT and Downing Street over its creation. Transport ministers are pushing for it to be given parliamentary time but there is pushback from Rishi Sunak, the prime minister, who does not consider the railways a priority for the final session of parliament before the general election.

    A source said: “The simple fact is Sunak doesn’t see the railways as a priority. He was in the Treasury during Covid when all he saw was the railways costing eye-watering amounts of money. He’d ask why so much was being spent to ‘ship fresh air’ around the country.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-boris-johnson-great-british-railways-rmnm23grx

    "... The simple fact is Sunak doesn’t see the railways as a priority ..."

    Maybe they should dress up as fishermen? They would probably get a massive investment...

    (I'll get my Sou'wester and seaproof hat)
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202
    edited May 2023

    Sunak out, I guess the man who uses helicopters all the time doesn't appreciate what us working class Northerners have to endure with the trains.

    Ministers have quietly scrapped plans for the biggest shake-up of the railways since privatisation, The Times has learnt.

    Plans for the creation of Great British Railways (GBR), put forward by Boris Johnson as a way to fix Britain’s rail network, have been watered down by No 10.

    Officials at the Department for Transport (DfT) working on the new body, which was due to take over the running of the entire network, have been told it is not a priority for the government and will not be brought forward in the King’s Speech.

    “Those working on it have been told it’s now unlikely to get a legislative slot,” a source said. “Without it they won’t be able to fully create the body, as it requires primary legislation.”

    It is understood there is a battle between the DfT and Downing Street over its creation. Transport ministers are pushing for it to be given parliamentary time but there is pushback from Rishi Sunak, the prime minister, who does not consider the railways a priority for the final session of parliament before the general election.

    A source said: “The simple fact is Sunak doesn’t see the railways as a priority. He was in the Treasury during Covid when all he saw was the railways costing eye-watering amounts of money. He’d ask why so much was being spent to ‘ship fresh air’ around the country.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-boris-johnson-great-british-railways-rmnm23grx

    I wonder what will be a priority - another immigration bill and another police powers bill? I'm guessing there will be a "Labour are on the side of layabouts and shirkers" bill, and perhaps there will be an anodyne "only Tories want to build houses - but definitely not near any of our voters" bill.

    Am I being too cynical, or has any legislation been passed in the last couple of years that wasn't a complete waste of space?
    There's not been much of anything really; the 2019 manifesto was skimpy to the point of near indecency.

    Strange to think that a government that must be able to feel the Grim Reaper's breath on its neck is apparently so apathetic. It has the potential to be a long 17 months.
    They won’t go to January 2024 because it means election campaign and Christmas at same time by decree of government - the voter anger delivers Tory MPs in single digits. The smartest thing I heard is TSE saying 2023 locals day, as the locals shellacking will leave Sunak and government weak and wobbling throughout summer, with more channel boats using halshion weather pushing their polling lower. The Tories get their best 2024 general election result next May, possibly 200+ seats - anything later than next May or June and the likelihood is sub 200 seats.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,503

    ...

    HYUFD said:

    Latest Yougov US has it Biden 41% DeSantis 41% but Trump 44% Biden 42% so don't rule out Trump yet.

    Ipsos better for Biden but still relatively close, Biden 44% Trump 38%


    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

    I am surprised you are such a Trump enthusiast considering the serious nature of some of the sexual accusations a civil court in New York decided were very credible.
    What word there said anything about me being a Trump enthusiast? I merely pointed out a Yougov poll for one had Trump ahead of Biden. It is called fact. This is supposed to be Politicalbetting.com after all, Not WehateTrump.com
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,031

    ...

    HYUFD said:

    Latest Yougov US has it Biden 41% DeSantis 41% but Trump 44% Biden 42% so don't rule out Trump yet.

    Ipsos better for Biden but still relatively close, Biden 44% Trump 38%


    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

    I am surprised you are such a Trump enthusiast considering the serious nature of some of the sexual accusations a civil court in New York decided were very credible.
    The US Christers love him, why wouldn’t the Epping equivalent?
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567

    TimS said:

    YouGov
    @YouGov
    Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (9-10 May)
    Con: 25% (-1 from 3-4 May)
    Lab: 43% (=)
    Lib Dem: 11% (+1)
    Green: 8% (+1)
    Reform UK: 7% (+1)
    SNP: 3% (-1)

    LLG 61 plays RefCon 32. In the pack. Ref and Green overrepresented in the sample hence the relatively low Tory and Lab scores.
    By my maths it’s 62. I see anything above 60 unfeasibly high and just not happening at a general election.

    I also don’t add the reform to Tory. These people were regularly not voting Tory till Boris came along. Farage UKIP never had a great general election, but got huge votes in other elections. Boris swallowed them whole during the last election campaign. Red kippers could more likely return to red than go blue, whilst a great many more may not vote Tory on basis of a botched Brexit UK not as promised got rich from, and far too much Tory Party sleazily helping themselves - even without a Reform candidate they are more likely to stay home than vote Tory.

    Adding all Reform to Tory to get 33% is the most desperate dumbass shit around at the moment.
    32% if my maths is right :)
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,503
    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Latest Yougov US has it Biden 41% DeSantis 41% but Trump 44% Biden 42% so don't rule out Trump yet.

    Ipsos better for Biden but still relatively close, Biden 44% Trump 38%


    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

    Well the second time for Trump won't be so much of a shock. First time round he was odds on to be out in a week (roughly - details may escape me).

    On the face of it I think these two elderly fools are entirely unsuited to high office. They've both done ok though, and that means that either I'm a fool, or there are others really running things. Let's not get too carried away with the former, it's uninteresting. The latter though is of interest.
    If Trump did do it he would be the first US president since Democrat Grover Cleveland in 1892 to lose his re election battle, then return to the White House 4 years later
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410

    <<b class="Bold">blockquote class="Quote" rel="TimS">

    YouGov
    @YouGov
    Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (9-10 May)
    Con: 25% (-1 from 3-4 May)
    Lab: 43% (=)
    Lib Dem: 11% (+1)
    Green: 8% (+1)
    Reform UK: 7% (+1)
    SNP: 3% (-1)

    LLG 61 plays RefCon 32. In the pack. Ref and Green overrepresented in the sample hence the relatively low Tory and Lab scores.
    By my maths it’s 62. I see anything above 60 unfeasibly high and just not happening at a general election.

    I also don’t add the reform to Tory. These people were regularly not voting Tory till Boris came along. Farage UKIP never had a great general election, but got huge votes in other elections. Boris swallowed them whole during the last election campaign. Red kippers could more likely return to red than go blue, whilst a great many more may not vote Tory on basis of a botched Brexit UK not as promised got rich from, and far too much Tory Party sleazily helping themselves - even without a Reform candidate they are more likely to stay home than vote Tory.

    Adding all Reform to Tory to get 33% is the most desperate dumbass shit around at the moment.

    Sorry yes 62%.

    Adding the parties up is a useful shorthand because the variance in both green and ref VI is much greater than the variance in the bloc totals. And green and Labour are negatively correlated between pollsters, as are refuk and Con.

    I know they don’t all just fall in line with the big parties come election time, but most people saying Ref are right wing and most saying green are left wing.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410
    Vanilla is a bit rum and raisin this evening.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,568

    Sunak out, I guess the man who uses helicopters all the time doesn't appreciate what us working class Northerners have to endure with the trains.

    Ministers have quietly scrapped plans for the biggest shake-up of the railways since privatisation, The Times has learnt.

    Plans for the creation of Great British Railways (GBR), put forward by Boris Johnson as a way to fix Britain’s rail network, have been watered down by No 10.

    Officials at the Department for Transport (DfT) working on the new body, which was due to take over the running of the entire network, have been told it is not a priority for the government and will not be brought forward in the King’s Speech.

    “Those working on it have been told it’s now unlikely to get a legislative slot,” a source said. “Without it they won’t be able to fully create the body, as it requires primary legislation.”

    It is understood there is a battle between the DfT and Downing Street over its creation. Transport ministers are pushing for it to be given parliamentary time but there is pushback from Rishi Sunak, the prime minister, who does not consider the railways a priority for the final session of parliament before the general election.

    A source said: “The simple fact is Sunak doesn’t see the railways as a priority. He was in the Treasury during Covid when all he saw was the railways costing eye-watering amounts of money. He’d ask why so much was being spent to ‘ship fresh air’ around the country.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-boris-johnson-great-british-railways-rmnm23grx

    I’ll bet he’s never endured the ineptitude that is, or was TPE.
  • Options
    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    TimS said:

    Vanilla is a bit rum and raisin this evening.

    That sounds like an upgrade. Plain vanilla is fairly dull..,
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,568

    Sunak out, I guess the man who uses helicopters all the time doesn't appreciate what us working class Northerners have to endure with the trains.

    Ministers have quietly scrapped plans for the biggest shake-up of the railways since privatisation, The Times has learnt.

    Plans for the creation of Great British Railways (GBR), put forward by Boris Johnson as a way to fix Britain’s rail network, have been watered down by No 10.

    Officials at the Department for Transport (DfT) working on the new body, which was due to take over the running of the entire network, have been told it is not a priority for the government and will not be brought forward in the King’s Speech.

    “Those working on it have been told it’s now unlikely to get a legislative slot,” a source said. “Without it they won’t be able to fully create the body, as it requires primary legislation.”

    It is understood there is a battle between the DfT and Downing Street over its creation. Transport ministers are pushing for it to be given parliamentary time but there is pushback from Rishi Sunak, the prime minister, who does not consider the railways a priority for the final session of parliament before the general election.

    A source said: “The simple fact is Sunak doesn’t see the railways as a priority. He was in the Treasury during Covid when all he saw was the railways costing eye-watering amounts of money. He’d ask why so much was being spent to ‘ship fresh air’ around the country.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-boris-johnson-great-british-railways-rmnm23grx

    I wonder what will be a priority - another immigration bill and another police powers bill? I'm guessing there will be a "Labour are on the side of layabouts and shirkers" bill, and perhaps there will be an anodyne "only Tories want to build houses - but definitely not near any of our voters" bill.

    Am I being too cynical, or has any legislation been passed in the last couple of years that wasn't a complete waste of space?
    There's not been much of anything really; the 2019 manifesto was skimpy to the point of near indecency.

    Strange to think that a government that must be able to feel the Grim Reaper's breath on its neck is apparently so apathetic. It has the potential to be a long 17 months.
    They won’t go to January 2024 because it means election campaign and Christmas at same time by decree of government - the voter anger delivers Tory MPs in single digits. The smartest thing I heard is TSE saying 2023 locals day, as the locals shellacking will leave Sunak and government weak and wobbling throughout summer, with more channel boats using halshion weather pushing their polling lower. The Tories get their best 2024 general election result next May, possibly 200+ seats - anything later than next May or June and the likelihood is sub 200 seats.
    Hi Heathener.
  • Options
    CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    Labour government time.

    Call a GE and we can have a proper railway system that works for us all.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,034
    Taz said:

    Sunak out, I guess the man who uses helicopters all the time doesn't appreciate what us working class Northerners have to endure with the trains.

    Ministers have quietly scrapped plans for the biggest shake-up of the railways since privatisation, The Times has learnt.

    Plans for the creation of Great British Railways (GBR), put forward by Boris Johnson as a way to fix Britain’s rail network, have been watered down by No 10.

    Officials at the Department for Transport (DfT) working on the new body, which was due to take over the running of the entire network, have been told it is not a priority for the government and will not be brought forward in the King’s Speech.

    “Those working on it have been told it’s now unlikely to get a legislative slot,” a source said. “Without it they won’t be able to fully create the body, as it requires primary legislation.”

    It is understood there is a battle between the DfT and Downing Street over its creation. Transport ministers are pushing for it to be given parliamentary time but there is pushback from Rishi Sunak, the prime minister, who does not consider the railways a priority for the final session of parliament before the general election.

    A source said: “The simple fact is Sunak doesn’t see the railways as a priority. He was in the Treasury during Covid when all he saw was the railways costing eye-watering amounts of money. He’d ask why so much was being spent to ‘ship fresh air’ around the country.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-boris-johnson-great-british-railways-rmnm23grx

    I’ll bet he’s never endured the ineptitude that is, or was TPE.
    Well he's worked with Boris Johnson, Sir Gavin Williamson, Suella Braverman, Liz Truss et al, all of whom are the TPE of politics.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,568

    Labour government time.

    Call a GE and we can have a proper railway system that works for us all.

    Labour may have their issues but I’m sure they’ll make the trains run on time.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,774

    Labour government time.

    Call a GE and we can have a proper railway system that works for us all.

    The number one priorty has to be making sure there is phone coverage across the entire rail network.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,280
    BIG DAN BURN
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,034
    We may be seeing the greatest comeback since Lazarus Istanbul 2005 in Sheffield right now.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,733
    malcolmg said:

    Sunak out, I guess the man who uses helicopters all the time doesn't appreciate what us working class Northerners have to endure with the trains.

    Ministers have quietly scrapped plans for the biggest shake-up of the railways since privatisation, The Times has learnt.

    Plans for the creation of Great British Railways (GBR), put forward by Boris Johnson as a way to fix Britain’s rail network, have been watered down by No 10.

    Officials at the Department for Transport (DfT) working on the new body, which was due to take over the running of the entire network, have been told it is not a priority for the government and will not be brought forward in the King’s Speech.

    “Those working on it have been told it’s now unlikely to get a legislative slot,” a source said. “Without it they won’t be able to fully create the body, as it requires primary legislation.”

    It is understood there is a battle between the DfT and Downing Street over its creation. Transport ministers are pushing for it to be given parliamentary time but there is pushback from Rishi Sunak, the prime minister, who does not consider the railways a priority for the final session of parliament before the general election.

    A source said: “The simple fact is Sunak doesn’t see the railways as a priority. He was in the Treasury during Covid when all he saw was the railways costing eye-watering amounts of money. He’d ask why so much was being spent to ‘ship fresh air’ around the country.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-boris-johnson-great-british-railways-rmnm23grx

    Plus the arse will never have had to use a train. Would mean him mixing with the great unwashed. He prefers to use private helicopters.
    I am somewhat torn on this, because I am not a Sunak fan, but frankly the new 'Great British Rail' organisation sounds like a useless new quango that will fail to achieve things that Network Rail is failing to achieve already. All they've done is attach a 'Boris' style name to it that evokes 'Great Western Railway', but is unlikely to have any similarities beyond the name.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,520

    <<b class="Bold">blockquote class="Quote" rel="TimS">

    YouGov
    @YouGov
    Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (9-10 May)
    Con: 25% (-1 from 3-4 May)
    Lab: 43% (=)
    Lib Dem: 11% (+1)
    Green: 8% (+1)
    Reform UK: 7% (+1)
    SNP: 3% (-1)

    LLG 61 plays RefCon 32. In the pack. Ref and Green overrepresented in the sample hence the relatively low Tory and Lab scores.
    By my maths it’s 62. I see anything above 60 unfeasibly high and just not happening at a general election.

    I also don’t add the reform to Tory. These people were regularly not voting Tory till Boris came along. Farage UKIP never had a great general election, but got huge votes in other elections. Boris swallowed them whole during the last election campaign. Red kippers could more likely return to red than go blue, whilst a great many more may not vote Tory on basis of a botched Brexit UK not as promised got rich from, and far too much Tory Party sleazily helping themselves - even without a Reform candidate they are more likely to stay home than vote Tory.

    Adding all Reform to Tory to get 33% is the most desperate dumbass shit around at the moment.

    LLG shares over the years (UK figures, so the GB will be even higher) -

    1997 - 60
    2001 - 60
    2005 - 58
    2010 - 53
    2015 - 42
    2017 - 49
    2019 - 46

    So yes, over 60 on a GB basis would be exceptionally high by historic standards though not unfeasible.
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,146
    Taz said:

    Labour government time.

    Call a GE and we can have a proper railway system that works for us all.

    Labour may have their issues but I’m sure they’ll make the trains run on time.
    And they'll get Sheffield Wednesday into the Premiership.

    What's not to like?
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,217

    Labour government time.

    Call a GE and we can have a proper railway system that works for us all.

    The number one priorty has to be making sure there is phone coverage across the entire rail network.
    Not to mentioning ensuring good rail coverage across the whole phone network
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202

    <<b class="Bold">blockquote class="Quote" rel="TimS">

    YouGov
    @YouGov
    Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (9-10 May)
    Con: 25% (-1 from 3-4 May)
    Lab: 43% (=)
    Lib Dem: 11% (+1)
    Green: 8% (+1)
    Reform UK: 7% (+1)
    SNP: 3% (-1)

    LLG 61 plays RefCon 32. In the pack. Ref and Green overrepresented in the sample hence the relatively low Tory and Lab scores.
    By my maths it’s 62. I see anything above 60 unfeasibly high and just not happening at a general election.

    I also don’t add the reform to Tory. These people were regularly not voting Tory till Boris came along. Farage UKIP never had a great general election, but got huge votes in other elections. Boris swallowed them whole during the last election campaign. Red kippers could more likely return to red than go blue, whilst a great many more may not vote Tory on basis of a botched Brexit UK not as promised got rich from, and far too much Tory Party sleazily helping themselves - even without a Reform candidate they are more likely to stay home than vote Tory.

    Adding all Reform to Tory to get 33% is the most desperate dumbass shit around at the moment.
    LLG shares over the years (UK figures, so the GB will be even higher) -

    1997 - 60
    2001 - 60
    2005 - 58
    2010 - 53
    2015 - 42
    2017 - 49
    2019 - 46

    So yes, over 60 on a GB basis would be exceptionally high by historic standards though not unfeasible.

    97 not bigger than 60, Dec 19 Bloodbath on Corbyn Street election 46 barely bigger than Conservatives on their own.

    Thank you for your support. You win a free poster of the British President and First Lady arriving in style.


  • Options
    If Labour make this an absolute election manifesto promise (not like the Edstone!) I'll vote for them.
    https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/18/labour-scottish-style-right-to-roam-law-england
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,146

    If Labour make this an absolute election manifesto promise (not like the Edstone!) I'll vote for them.
    https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/18/labour-scottish-style-right-to-roam-law-england

    It's a somewhat niche policy, but a good one.
  • Options
    pingping Posts: 3,805
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202
    Taz said:

    Sunak out, I guess the man who uses helicopters all the time doesn't appreciate what us working class Northerners have to endure with the trains.

    Ministers have quietly scrapped plans for the biggest shake-up of the railways since privatisation, The Times has learnt.

    Plans for the creation of Great British Railways (GBR), put forward by Boris Johnson as a way to fix Britain’s rail network, have been watered down by No 10.

    Officials at the Department for Transport (DfT) working on the new body, which was due to take over the running of the entire network, have been told it is not a priority for the government and will not be brought forward in the King’s Speech.

    “Those working on it have been told it’s now unlikely to get a legislative slot,” a source said. “Without it they won’t be able to fully create the body, as it requires primary legislation.”

    It is understood there is a battle between the DfT and Downing Street over its creation. Transport ministers are pushing for it to be given parliamentary time but there is pushback from Rishi Sunak, the prime minister, who does not consider the railways a priority for the final session of parliament before the general election.

    A source said: “The simple fact is Sunak doesn’t see the railways as a priority. He was in the Treasury during Covid when all he saw was the railways costing eye-watering amounts of money. He’d ask why so much was being spent to ‘ship fresh air’ around the country.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-boris-johnson-great-british-railways-rmnm23grx

    I wonder what will be a priority - another immigration bill and another police powers bill? I'm guessing there will be a "Labour are on the side of layabouts and shirkers" bill, and perhaps there will be an anodyne "only Tories want to build houses - but definitely not near any of our voters" bill.

    Am I being too cynical, or has any legislation been passed in the last couple of years that wasn't a complete waste of space?
    There's not been much of anything really; the 2019 manifesto was skimpy to the point of near indecency.

    Strange to think that a government that must be able to feel the Grim Reaper's breath on its neck is apparently so apathetic. It has the potential to be a long 17 months.
    They won’t go to January 2024 because it means election campaign and Christmas at same time by decree of government - the voter anger delivers Tory MPs in single digits. The smartest thing I heard is TSE saying 2023 locals day, as the locals shellacking will leave Sunak and government weak and wobbling throughout summer, with more channel boats using halshion weather pushing their polling lower. The Tories get their best 2024 general election result next May, possibly 200+ seats - anything later than next May or June and the likelihood is sub 200 seats.
    Hi Heathener.
    Behave 😠

    One minute I’m called Tory Rabbit, the next Heathener Rabbit. If I can get the two piles balanced right it will confirm my status as the sites most balanced psephologist.

    It wasn’t even that controversial a post Taz? If Tories inflict both Christmas and an election campaign at the same time they have to expect a bad result? My agreement with TSE a good day for GE is same time as next years locals - the results this year had knocked stuffing and authority out them did it not? And an autumn election after halcyon summer of boat crossings?

    Halcyon days is named after a Greek bird that nests in cliffs during nicer weather of summer.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,772
    edited May 2023

    If Labour make this an absolute election manifesto promise (not like the Edstone!) I'll vote for them.
    https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/18/labour-scottish-style-right-to-roam-law-england

    I agree but Scotland need to change their system as it has been counterproductive.

    I spend a lot of time wandering across land looking at rocks, wildflowers, insects and all manner of stuff. A couple of summers ago I had to spend a couple of months in Scotland and was looking forward to spending lots of time wandering about the Aberdeenshire countryside. The trouble is that now that the Right to Roam has been introduced (which I very much welcome) the OS maps no longer show rights of way. They supposedly show footpaths but since these no longer have a statutory meaning (and many rights of way are not formal footpaths) as they do in England it is very difficult to plan a route in advance and often you turn up and find there are fences or walls making access to land petty much impossible.

    A much saner system would be to continue to mark formal rights of way and continue to ensure that the the landowner has a legal responsibility to keep them clear whiclt everyone also understands that there is no law against wandering off those routes when desired.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,677
    edited May 2023

    <<b class="Bold">blockquote class="Quote" rel="TimS">

    YouGov
    @YouGov
    Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (9-10 May)
    Con: 25% (-1 from 3-4 May)
    Lab: 43% (=)
    Lib Dem: 11% (+1)
    Green: 8% (+1)
    Reform UK: 7% (+1)
    SNP: 3% (-1)

    LLG 61 plays RefCon 32. In the pack. Ref and Green overrepresented in the sample hence the relatively low Tory and Lab scores.
    By my maths it’s 62. I see anything above 60 unfeasibly high and just not happening at a general election.

    I also don’t add the reform to Tory. These people were regularly not voting Tory till Boris came along. Farage UKIP never had a great general election, but got huge votes in other elections. Boris swallowed them whole during the last election campaign. Red kippers could more likely return to red than go blue, whilst a great many more may not vote Tory on basis of a botched Brexit UK not as promised got rich from, and far too much Tory Party sleazily helping themselves - even without a Reform candidate they are more likely to stay home than vote Tory.

    Adding all Reform to Tory to get 33% is the most desperate dumbass shit around at the moment.
    LLG shares over the years (UK figures, so the GB will be even higher) -

    1997 - 60
    2001 - 60
    2005 - 58
    2010 - 53
    2015 - 42
    2017 - 49
    2019 - 46

    So yes, over 60 on a GB basis would be exceptionally high by historic standards though not unfeasible.
    97 not bigger than 60, Dec 19 Bloodbath on Corbyn Street election 46 barely bigger than Conservatives on their own.

    Thank you for your support. You win a free poster of the British President and First Lady arriving in style.





    It's another of those ingenious perspective tricks where Sunak's titchyness is obscured.

    On your earlier point - May '24 is probably rational and as good as it gets (though April might be a bit better, if Conservative dreams involve channeling the spirit of '92).

    But given the chance, however slim, that something will turn up between spring and October next year, the temptation to hang on a bit will be hard to resist. Though any later than that would be to show an absolute death wish.
  • Options
    jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 745

    Taz said:

    Sunak out, I guess the man who uses helicopters all the time doesn't appreciate what us working class Northerners have to endure with the trains.

    Ministers have quietly scrapped plans for the biggest shake-up of the railways since privatisation, The Times has learnt.

    Plans for the creation of Great British Railways (GBR), put forward by Boris Johnson as a way to fix Britain’s rail network, have been watered down by No 10.

    Officials at the Department for Transport (DfT) working on the new body, which was due to take over the running of the entire network, have been told it is not a priority for the government and will not be brought forward in the King’s Speech.

    “Those working on it have been told it’s now unlikely to get a legislative slot,” a source said. “Without it they won’t be able to fully create the body, as it requires primary legislation.”

    It is understood there is a battle between the DfT and Downing Street over its creation. Transport ministers are pushing for it to be given parliamentary time but there is pushback from Rishi Sunak, the prime minister, who does not consider the railways a priority for the final session of parliament before the general election.

    A source said: “The simple fact is Sunak doesn’t see the railways as a priority. He was in the Treasury during Covid when all he saw was the railways costing eye-watering amounts of money. He’d ask why so much was being spent to ‘ship fresh air’ around the country.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-boris-johnson-great-british-railways-rmnm23grx

    I wonder what will be a priority - another immigration bill and another police powers bill? I'm guessing there will be a "Labour are on the side of layabouts and shirkers" bill, and perhaps there will be an anodyne "only Tories want to build houses - but definitely not near any of our voters" bill.

    Am I being too cynical, or has any legislation been passed in the last couple of years that wasn't a complete waste of space?
    There's not been much of anything really; the 2019 manifesto was skimpy to the point of near indecency.

    Strange to think that a government that must be able to feel the Grim Reaper's breath on its neck is apparently so apathetic. It has the potential to be a long 17 months.
    They won’t go to January 2024 because it means election campaign and Christmas at same time by decree of government - the voter anger delivers Tory MPs in single digits. The smartest thing I heard is TSE saying 2023 locals day, as the locals shellacking will leave Sunak and government weak and wobbling throughout summer, with more channel boats using halshion weather pushing their polling lower. The Tories get their best 2024 general election result next May, possibly 200+ seats - anything later than next May or June and the likelihood is sub 200 seats.
    Hi Heathener.
    Behave 😠

    One minute I’m called Tory Rabbit, the next Heathener Rabbit. If I can get the two piles balanced right it will confirm my status as the sites most balanced psephologist.

    It wasn’t even that controversial a post Taz? If Tories inflict both Christmas and an election campaign at the same time they have to expect a bad result? My agreement with TSE a good day for GE is same time as next years locals - the results this year had knocked stuffing and authority out them did it not? And an autumn election after halcyon summer of boat crossings?

    Halcyon days is named after a Greek bird that nests in cliffs during nicer weather of summer.
    Halcyon is a kingfisher
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,772
    edited May 2023
    Farooq said:

    If Labour make this an absolute election manifesto promise (not like the Edstone!) I'll vote for them.
    https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/18/labour-scottish-style-right-to-roam-law-england

    I agree but Scotland need to change their system as it has been counterproductive.

    I spend a lot of time wandering across land looking at rocks, wildflowers, insects and all manner of stuff. A couple of summers ago I had to spend a couple of months in Scotland and was looking forward to spending lots of time wandering about the Aberdeenshire countryside. The trouble is that now that the Right to Roam has been introduced (which I very much welcome) the OS maps no longer show rights of way. They supposedly show footpaths but since these no longer have a statutory meaning (and many rights of way are not formal footpaths) as they do in England it is very difficult to plan a route in advance and often you turn up and find there are fences or walls making access to land petty much impossible.

    A much saner system would be to continue to mark formal rights of way and continue to ensure that the the landowner has a legal responsibility to keep them clear whiclt everyone also understands that there is no law against wandering off those routes when desired.
    Where was this? It's not something that happens often in my experience and I live in Aberdeenshire.
    FWIW I find Open Street Map a really good resource if you don't mind using a smartphone for navigation.
    I bought the standard OS 1:25000 Explorer map which in England shows all public rights of way. Of course there are no formal rights of way in Scotland now apart from things like the old railway which is now the National Trail leading out past Culter. I came across it often, a lot in the Dee valley beyond Culter and also when tracking down stone circles in other parts of Aberdeenshire (which has one of the highest concentrations of the things in the British Isles)

    The lack of marked foorpaths is a real pain.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,460
    Germany knows what's up.




    That's not my ND. I don't hate them but I'd rather have the Fiat 124 version.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915
    What became of that imminent single figure Labour lead?

    More pertinently, why is the Labour lead edging upwards again?

    CoL and mortgage rates hitting home? Voters reacting to the poor Tory locals showing? Or is the 'culture war' actually a voter turn-off?
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,772
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    If Labour make this an absolute election manifesto promise (not like the Edstone!) I'll vote for them.
    https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/18/labour-scottish-style-right-to-roam-law-england

    I agree but Scotland need to change their system as it has been counterproductive.

    I spend a lot of time wandering across land looking at rocks, wildflowers, insects and all manner of stuff. A couple of summers ago I had to spend a couple of months in Scotland and was looking forward to spending lots of time wandering about the Aberdeenshire countryside. The trouble is that now that the Right to Roam has been introduced (which I very much welcome) the OS maps no longer show rights of way. They supposedly show footpaths but since these no longer have a statutory meaning (and many rights of way are not formal footpaths) as they do in England it is very difficult to plan a route in advance and often you turn up and find there are fences or walls making access to land petty much impossible.

    A much saner system would be to continue to mark formal rights of way and continue to ensure that the the landowner has a legal responsibility to keep them clear whiclt everyone also understands that there is no law against wandering off those routes when desired.
    Where was this? It's not something that happens often in my experience and I live in Aberdeenshire.
    FWIW I find Open Street Map a really good resource if you don't mind using a smartphone for navigation.
    I bought the standard OS 1:25000 Explorer map which in England shows all public rights of way. Of course there are no formal rights of way in Scotland now apart from things like the old railway which is now the National Trail leading out past Culter. I came across it often, a lot in the Dee valley beyond Culter and also when tracking down stone circles in other parts of Aberdeenshire (which has one of the highest concentrations of the things in the British Isles)

    The lack of marked foorpaths is a real pain.
    Yes, loads of stone circles round here... never quite worked out why
    With my interest renewed by TFS's post I went looking at what others are saying about the path network and found the Ramblers Association in Scotland are highlighting the issue and trying to do something about it. If they got this in place it would make a huge difference.

    https://www.outdooraccess-scotland.scot/sites/default/files/2019-06/Paper - Ramblers Scotland - Mapping Scotlands Paths - 30 January 2019.pdf
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,733

    Taz said:

    Sunak out, I guess the man who uses helicopters all the time doesn't appreciate what us working class Northerners have to endure with the trains.

    Ministers have quietly scrapped plans for the biggest shake-up of the railways since privatisation, The Times has learnt.

    Plans for the creation of Great British Railways (GBR), put forward by Boris Johnson as a way to fix Britain’s rail network, have been watered down by No 10.

    Officials at the Department for Transport (DfT) working on the new body, which was due to take over the running of the entire network, have been told it is not a priority for the government and will not be brought forward in the King’s Speech.

    “Those working on it have been told it’s now unlikely to get a legislative slot,” a source said. “Without it they won’t be able to fully create the body, as it requires primary legislation.”

    It is understood there is a battle between the DfT and Downing Street over its creation. Transport ministers are pushing for it to be given parliamentary time but there is pushback from Rishi Sunak, the prime minister, who does not consider the railways a priority for the final session of parliament before the general election.

    A source said: “The simple fact is Sunak doesn’t see the railways as a priority. He was in the Treasury during Covid when all he saw was the railways costing eye-watering amounts of money. He’d ask why so much was being spent to ‘ship fresh air’ around the country.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-boris-johnson-great-british-railways-rmnm23grx

    I wonder what will be a priority - another immigration bill and another police powers bill? I'm guessing there will be a "Labour are on the side of layabouts and shirkers" bill, and perhaps there will be an anodyne "only Tories want to build houses - but definitely not near any of our voters" bill.

    Am I being too cynical, or has any legislation been passed in the last couple of years that wasn't a complete waste of space?
    There's not been much of anything really; the 2019 manifesto was skimpy to the point of near indecency.

    Strange to think that a government that must be able to feel the Grim Reaper's breath on its neck is apparently so apathetic. It has the potential to be a long 17 months.
    They won’t go to January 2024 because it means election campaign and Christmas at same time by decree of government - the voter anger delivers Tory MPs in single digits. The smartest thing I heard is TSE saying 2023 locals day, as the locals shellacking will leave Sunak and government weak and wobbling throughout summer, with more channel boats using halshion weather pushing their polling lower. The Tories get their best 2024 general election result next May, possibly 200+ seats - anything later than next May or June and the likelihood is sub 200 seats.
    Hi Heathener.
    Behave 😠

    One minute I’m called Tory Rabbit, the next Heathener Rabbit. If I can get the two piles balanced right it will confirm my status as the sites most balanced psephologist.

    It wasn’t even that controversial a post Taz? If Tories inflict both Christmas and an election campaign at the same time they have to expect a bad result? My agreement with TSE a good day for GE is same time as next years locals - the results this year had knocked stuffing and authority out them did it not? And an autumn election after halcyon summer of boat crossings?

    Halcyon days is named after a Greek bird that nests in cliffs during nicer weather of summer.
    We will not see Heathener until Leon returns to somewhere with electricity.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    Those Brexit dividends keep coming...

    Jeremy Hunt has offered one of Britain’s biggest car manufacturers half a billion pounds in government subsidies not to go abroad to build a new electric battery “giga-factory”.

    Amid growing concerns in government about the threat facing the UK car industry as it transforms towards electric vehicles, the Treasury has drawn up a package of incentives to pursue Jaguar Land Rover to invest in the UK.

    The company, owned by the Indian conglomerate Tata, is weighing up whether to site a planned new giga-factory production facility for future electric vehicles in the UK or Spain.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-jaguar-landrover-factory-uk-500-million-pounds-5mtdm6dgn
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,639

    Labour government time.

    Call a GE and we can have a proper railway system that works for us all.

    The number one priorty has to be making sure there is phone coverage across the entire rail network.
    Except in the quiet coach.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,774
    Scott_xP said:

    Those Brexit dividends keep coming...

    Jeremy Hunt has offered one of Britain’s biggest car manufacturers half a billion pounds in government subsidies not to go abroad to build a new electric battery “giga-factory”.

    Amid growing concerns in government about the threat facing the UK car industry as it transforms towards electric vehicles, the Treasury has drawn up a package of incentives to pursue Jaguar Land Rover to invest in the UK.

    The company, owned by the Indian conglomerate Tata, is weighing up whether to site a planned new giga-factory production facility for future electric vehicles in the UK or Spain.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-jaguar-landrover-factory-uk-500-million-pounds-5mtdm6dgn

    Diverting our money from the EU structural fund to the domestic economy is pretty much what was on the side of the infamous bus.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,772
    Scott_xP said:

    Those Brexit dividends keep coming...

    Jeremy Hunt has offered one of Britain’s biggest car manufacturers half a billion pounds in government subsidies not to go abroad to build a new electric battery “giga-factory”.

    Amid growing concerns in government about the threat facing the UK car industry as it transforms towards electric vehicles, the Treasury has drawn up a package of incentives to pursue Jaguar Land Rover to invest in the UK.

    The company, owned by the Indian conglomerate Tata, is weighing up whether to site a planned new giga-factory production facility for future electric vehicles in the UK or Spain.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-jaguar-landrover-factory-uk-500-million-pounds-5mtdm6dgn

    Not sure what your point is. Spain is already offering up to 837 million euros in subsidies to draw battery manufacturers to the country. This is just how things are done these days.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982

    Diverting our money from the EU structural fund to the domestic economy is pretty much what was on the side of the infamous bus.

    The "domestic economy" in India...
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,772
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    If Labour make this an absolute election manifesto promise (not like the Edstone!) I'll vote for them.
    https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/18/labour-scottish-style-right-to-roam-law-england

    I agree but Scotland need to change their system as it has been counterproductive.

    I spend a lot of time wandering across land looking at rocks, wildflowers, insects and all manner of stuff. A couple of summers ago I had to spend a couple of months in Scotland and was looking forward to spending lots of time wandering about the Aberdeenshire countryside. The trouble is that now that the Right to Roam has been introduced (which I very much welcome) the OS maps no longer show rights of way. They supposedly show footpaths but since these no longer have a statutory meaning (and many rights of way are not formal footpaths) as they do in England it is very difficult to plan a route in advance and often you turn up and find there are fences or walls making access to land petty much impossible.

    A much saner system would be to continue to mark formal rights of way and continue to ensure that the the landowner has a legal responsibility to keep them clear whiclt everyone also understands that there is no law against wandering off those routes when desired.
    Where was this? It's not something that happens often in my experience and I live in Aberdeenshire.
    FWIW I find Open Street Map a really good resource if you don't mind using a smartphone for navigation.
    I bought the standard OS 1:25000 Explorer map which in England shows all public rights of way. Of course there are no formal rights of way in Scotland now apart from things like the old railway which is now the National Trail leading out past Culter. I came across it often, a lot in the Dee valley beyond Culter and also when tracking down stone circles in other parts of Aberdeenshire (which has one of the highest concentrations of the things in the British Isles)

    The lack of marked foorpaths is a real pain.
    Yes, loads of stone circles round here... never quite worked out why
    No one is quite sure. There are lots of different theories but it is most likely that it is to do with differences in post-Nolithic preservation rather than differences in original distribution. Basically it is probable that most of the lowland British Isles had cricles of stone or wood of a similar concentration to Aberdeenshire but that differences in later land usage meant that they were destroyed elsewhere but preserved in Aberdeenshire.
  • Options
    pingping Posts: 3,805
    Is Richard Nabavi @Richard_Nabavi still on PB?
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,772
    ping said:

    Is Richard Nabavi @Richard_Nabavi still on PB?

    He does pop up once in a while.
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,743

    Scott_xP said:

    Those Brexit dividends keep coming...

    Jeremy Hunt has offered one of Britain’s biggest car manufacturers half a billion pounds in government subsidies not to go abroad to build a new electric battery “giga-factory”.

    Amid growing concerns in government about the threat facing the UK car industry as it transforms towards electric vehicles, the Treasury has drawn up a package of incentives to pursue Jaguar Land Rover to invest in the UK.

    The company, owned by the Indian conglomerate Tata, is weighing up whether to site a planned new giga-factory production facility for future electric vehicles in the UK or Spain.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-jaguar-landrover-factory-uk-500-million-pounds-5mtdm6dgn

    Not sure what your point is. Spain is already offering up to 837 million euros in subsidies to draw battery manufacturers to the country. This is just how things are done these days.
    Exactly. I don't agree with it at all, but it's becoming the norm for these sort of projects. It's bonkers that profitable companies, highly profitable in some cases, are able to extract these bribes from the public purse for a battery factory, semiconductor fab, aerospace factory and the like. Sometimes I think the lefties arguing we should nationalise everything and hang the rich have a point.
  • Options
    No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,193
    Scott_xP said:

    Those Brexit dividends keep coming...

    Jeremy Hunt has offered one of Britain’s biggest car manufacturers half a billion pounds in government subsidies not to go abroad to build a new electric battery “giga-factory”.

    Amid growing concerns in government about the threat facing the UK car industry as it transforms towards electric vehicles, the Treasury has drawn up a package of incentives to pursue Jaguar Land Rover to invest in the UK.

    The company, owned by the Indian conglomerate Tata, is weighing up whether to site a planned new giga-factory production facility for future electric vehicles in the UK or Spain.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-jaguar-landrover-factory-uk-500-million-pounds-5mtdm6dgn

    The government should be getting equity in return, when handing out this kind of money.
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,743
    After months of worry that it would opt for an investment in North America over Europe, Sweden's Northvolt said it is set to pick Heide in northern Germany for its factory as long as subsidies are approved, estimated by one source close to the matter to be over 600 million euros.

    https://www.reuters.com/technology/northvolt-build-multi-billion-euro-battery-plant-germany-2023-05-12/

    So Scott how is this anything to do with Brexit if Germany feels the need to pay these same "subsidies"?
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,460

    Scott_xP said:

    Those Brexit dividends keep coming...

    Jeremy Hunt has offered one of Britain’s biggest car manufacturers half a billion pounds in government subsidies not to go abroad to build a new electric battery “giga-factory”.

    Amid growing concerns in government about the threat facing the UK car industry as it transforms towards electric vehicles, the Treasury has drawn up a package of incentives to pursue Jaguar Land Rover to invest in the UK.

    The company, owned by the Indian conglomerate Tata, is weighing up whether to site a planned new giga-factory production facility for future electric vehicles in the UK or Spain.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-jaguar-landrover-factory-uk-500-million-pounds-5mtdm6dgn

    The government should be getting equity in return, when handing out this kind of money.
    Don't worry about it. JLR recently put mismatched sill trims on an RR press car. The taxpayers' money is being soundly invested.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,429

    Scott_xP said:

    Those Brexit dividends keep coming...

    Jeremy Hunt has offered one of Britain’s biggest car manufacturers half a billion pounds in government subsidies not to go abroad to build a new electric battery “giga-factory”.

    Amid growing concerns in government about the threat facing the UK car industry as it transforms towards electric vehicles, the Treasury has drawn up a package of incentives to pursue Jaguar Land Rover to invest in the UK.

    The company, owned by the Indian conglomerate Tata, is weighing up whether to site a planned new giga-factory production facility for future electric vehicles in the UK or Spain.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-jaguar-landrover-factory-uk-500-million-pounds-5mtdm6dgn

    The government should be getting equity in return, when handing out this kind of money.
    The problem is that the er… incentives are an international competition.

    Take a look at what happens in major sports in the US. Where cities bribe billionaires to bring their teams in.
  • Options
    pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited May 2023
    glw said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Those Brexit dividends keep coming...

    Jeremy Hunt has offered one of Britain’s biggest car manufacturers half a billion pounds in government subsidies not to go abroad to build a new electric battery “giga-factory”.

    Amid growing concerns in government about the threat facing the UK car industry as it transforms towards electric vehicles, the Treasury has drawn up a package of incentives to pursue Jaguar Land Rover to invest in the UK.

    The company, owned by the Indian conglomerate Tata, is weighing up whether to site a planned new giga-factory production facility for future electric vehicles in the UK or Spain.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-jaguar-landrover-factory-uk-500-million-pounds-5mtdm6dgn

    Not sure what your point is. Spain is already offering up to 837 million euros in subsidies to draw battery manufacturers to the country. This is just how things are done these days.
    Exactly. I don't agree with it at all, but it's becoming the norm for these sort of projects. It's bonkers that profitable companies, highly profitable in some cases, are able to extract these bribes from the public purse for a battery factory, semiconductor fab, aerospace factory and the like. Sometimes I think the lefties arguing we should nationalise everything and hang the rich have a point.
    Tell them to go fuck themselves.

    These Indians are taking the piss.

    Just down the road from Solihull’s JLR plant, some kid with a sewing machine and an understanding of viral marketing made a billion pound company.

    EV’s are legacy tech. Just buy them in, as white goods, from china at £10k/pop or whatever.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,034

    We may be seeing the greatest comeback since Lazarus Istanbul 2005 in Sheffield right now.

    ****BUFFS NAILS****
  • Options
    WestieWestie Posts: 426
    edited May 2023
    FPT

    Westie said:

    Great headline today in British regime media: "Queen Elizabeth II: Funeral cost government £162m"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-65636772

    No, mateys, it cost the British people that sum. And we weren't consulted.

    Given virtually the whole world watched it, and it projected British identity, and self-confidence on the world stage, including our ties to the Commonwealth, how much value do you think it generated in terms of "soft power" projection?
    Sweet Fanny Adams. Did something stop the Treasury from claiming there was a net benefit? Perhaps they're prideless pinkos.

    Given the king and his wife's record with the media, I wouldn't be surprised if he was behind this story, because it's interesting the BBC didn't see fit to say yeah, that was 5000 nurses' worth of money on the funeral and another 5000 or whatever on the more recent embarrassment that was the coronation.
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,146

    We may be seeing the greatest comeback since Lazarus Istanbul 2005 in Sheffield right now.

    ****BUFFS NAILS****
    Don't hide your light under a bushel of wheat, young man. Tell 'em about it!
  • Options
    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,139

    We may be seeing the greatest comeback since Lazarus Istanbul 2005 in Sheffield right now.

    ****BUFFS NAILS****
    Like those Liverpool supporters who left at half-time, there will have been Wednesday fans who decided to skip this one and not buy a ticket.
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,478
    Scott_xP said:

    Those Brexit dividends keep coming...

    Jeremy Hunt has offered one of Britain’s biggest car manufacturers half a billion pounds in government subsidies not to go abroad to build a new electric battery “giga-factory”.

    Amid growing concerns in government about the threat facing the UK car industry as it transforms towards electric vehicles, the Treasury has drawn up a package of incentives to pursue Jaguar Land Rover to invest in the UK.

    The company, owned by the Indian conglomerate Tata, is weighing up whether to site a planned new giga-factory production facility for future electric vehicles in the UK or Spain.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-jaguar-landrover-factory-uk-500-million-pounds-5mtdm6dgn

    In fairness, I can't imagine Hunt being much of an enthusiast for the Wilsonite policy of picking winnings. Nevertheless we were warned - but some devout Leavers in fact - that in the post-Brexit world the British car industry would be the first domino to fall. So I can see why Hunt is desperate to avoid that horrible optic being associated for ever with the Tories. The symbolism is massive here.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    If Labour make this an absolute election manifesto promise (not like the Edstone!) I'll vote for them.
    https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/18/labour-scottish-style-right-to-roam-law-england

    I agree but Scotland need to change their system as it has been counterproductive.

    I spend a lot of time wandering across land looking at rocks, wildflowers, insects and all manner of stuff. A couple of summers ago I had to spend a couple of months in Scotland and was looking forward to spending lots of time wandering about the Aberdeenshire countryside. The trouble is that now that the Right to Roam has been introduced (which I very much welcome) the OS maps no longer show rights of way. They supposedly show footpaths but since these no longer have a statutory meaning (and many rights of way are not formal footpaths) as they do in England it is very difficult to plan a route in advance and often you turn up and find there are fences or walls making access to land petty much impossible.

    A much saner system would be to continue to mark formal rights of way and continue to ensure that the the landowner has a legal responsibility to keep them clear whiclt everyone also understands that there is no law against wandering off those routes when desired.
    Where was this? It's not something that happens often in my experience and I live in Aberdeenshire.
    FWIW I find Open Street Map a really good resource if you don't mind using a smartphone for navigation.
    I bought the standard OS 1:25000 Explorer map which in England shows all public rights of way. Of course there are no formal rights of way in Scotland now apart from things like the old railway which is now the National Trail leading out past Culter. I came across it often, a lot in the Dee valley beyond Culter and also when tracking down stone circles in other parts of Aberdeenshire (which has one of the highest concentrations of the things in the British Isles)

    The lack of marked foorpaths is a real pain.
    Yes, loads of stone circles round here... never quite worked out why
    No one is quite sure. There are lots of different theories but it is most likely that it is to do with differences in post-Nolithic preservation rather than differences in original distribution. Basically it is probable that most of the lowland British Isles had cricles of stone or wood of a similar concentration to Aberdeenshire but that differences in later land usage meant that they were destroyed elsewhere but preserved in Aberdeenshire.
    Also, changes in sea level would have simply submerged older settlements (theoretical I admit) that would have been on dry land thousands of years prior to Stonehenge, Carnac, etc.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,308

    Scott_xP said:

    Those Brexit dividends keep coming...

    Jeremy Hunt has offered one of Britain’s biggest car manufacturers half a billion pounds in government subsidies not to go abroad to build a new electric battery “giga-factory”.

    Amid growing concerns in government about the threat facing the UK car industry as it transforms towards electric vehicles, the Treasury has drawn up a package of incentives to pursue Jaguar Land Rover to invest in the UK.

    The company, owned by the Indian conglomerate Tata, is weighing up whether to site a planned new giga-factory production facility for future electric vehicles in the UK or Spain.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-jaguar-landrover-factory-uk-500-million-pounds-5mtdm6dgn

    Not sure what your point is. Spain is already offering up to 837 million euros in subsidies to draw battery manufacturers to the country. This is just how things are done these days.
    Promising to build a battery factory, and then pocketing the subsidies is probably the easiest way to become a billionaire these days.
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,743
    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Those Brexit dividends keep coming...

    Jeremy Hunt has offered one of Britain’s biggest car manufacturers half a billion pounds in government subsidies not to go abroad to build a new electric battery “giga-factory”.

    Amid growing concerns in government about the threat facing the UK car industry as it transforms towards electric vehicles, the Treasury has drawn up a package of incentives to pursue Jaguar Land Rover to invest in the UK.

    The company, owned by the Indian conglomerate Tata, is weighing up whether to site a planned new giga-factory production facility for future electric vehicles in the UK or Spain.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-jaguar-landrover-factory-uk-500-million-pounds-5mtdm6dgn

    Not sure what your point is. Spain is already offering up to 837 million euros in subsidies to draw battery manufacturers to the country. This is just how things are done these days.
    Promising to build a battery factory, and then pocketing the subsidies is probably the easiest way to become a billionaire these days.
    How much do you think I could pocket before anyone finds out that my solid-state battery doesn't work?
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 13,311

    We may be seeing the greatest comeback since Lazarus Istanbul 2005 in Sheffield right now.

    ****BUFFS NAILS****
    The snooker's finished, the racing's at York so what else is happening in Yorkshire?
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410
    edited May 2023
    stodge said:

    Late evening all :)

    Just to add when Redfield & Wilton asked Reform supporters how they would vote if there were no Reform candidate in their constituency, just a quarter said they would vote Conservative, 15% would back Labour and the majority (52%) wouldn't vote so this notion the "true" centre-right figure is Conservative plus Reform is nonsense.

    I’m sceptical whether those 52% when faced with weeks on end of Daily Mail scaremongering about a Labour government or coalition of chaos would all abstain. Just like I expect lots of green voters say they would never vote Starmer because he’s just a red Tory, but come the election they may hold their nose. I also think some pollsters way over-sample both green and refuk.

    So Con + Ref isn’t the true Tory vote nor is Lab + Green the true Labour vote, but s portion of each will switch at a GE and totalling up the broadly right and left blocs gives a good indication of overall sentiment - which suggests 2/3 to 1/3 at the moment.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,123
    Will Jennings
    @drjennings
    ·
    1h
    It is remarkable how normalised the Conservatives polling in the mid-20s has become. It barely registers any interest now.

    https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1659290385145905152
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567

    We may be seeing the greatest comeback since Lazarus Istanbul 2005 in Sheffield right now.

    ****BUFFS NAILS****
    5-5 on aggregate!
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,363

    Scott_xP said:

    Those Brexit dividends keep coming...

    Jeremy Hunt has offered one of Britain’s biggest car manufacturers half a billion pounds in government subsidies not to go abroad to build a new electric battery “giga-factory”.

    Amid growing concerns in government about the threat facing the UK car industry as it transforms towards electric vehicles, the Treasury has drawn up a package of incentives to pursue Jaguar Land Rover to invest in the UK.

    The company, owned by the Indian conglomerate Tata, is weighing up whether to site a planned new giga-factory production facility for future electric vehicles in the UK or Spain.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-jaguar-landrover-factory-uk-500-million-pounds-5mtdm6dgn

    In fairness, I can't imagine Hunt being much of an enthusiast for the Wilsonite policy of picking winnings. Nevertheless we were warned - but some devout Leavers in fact - that in the post-Brexit world the British car industry would be the first domino to fall. So I can see why Hunt is desperate to avoid that horrible optic being associated for ever with the Tories. The symbolism is massive here.
    Didn't Thatcher offer subsidies to the Japanese car companies in the 1980s?
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,363
    So there is a report out that a US Air Force source claims Ukrainians could be trained on F16s within 4 months. Given what the likes of Michael Clarke and Phillips O'Brien have been saying that seems at the lengthy end of the spectrum which is usually guesstimated between 6 weeks to 3 months.

    The mystery is why the previous Pentagon briefing stated it would take up to 18 months, a remark they must have known to be a de facto lie. So why tell it?
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    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,131
    Wednesday it is!
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,774

    So there is a report out that a US Air Force source claims Ukrainians could be trained on F16s within 4 months. Given what the likes of Michael Clarke and Phillips O'Brien have been saying that seems at the lengthy end of the spectrum which is usually guesstimated between 6 weeks to 3 months.

    The mystery is why the previous Pentagon briefing stated it would take up to 18 months, a remark they must have known to be a de facto lie. So why tell it?

    Up to doesn't exclude it being a lot less than that. They were probably just quoting the length of time it would typically take to train someone when there isn't any urgency.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460

    Poor old Ron De Santis. Couldn't have happened to a nicer guy.

    I'm curious whether he never really had a chance - not least because even those most opposed to Trump in the GOP ranks dance around the issue or give in - or whether he has made missteps that ruined any chance he may have had.

    This Disney business for instance. Maybe it still looks cool to the GOP voters to take on the woke mouse, IDK, but that he is locked in some death struggle with them for so long still makes him look weak.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460

    Two private energy ‘companies’ caught conning customers.

    Various private water ‘companies’ charging taxpayers for cleaning up the shit they have been shovelling into the sea.

    Nothing to see here.

    Oh no, oh no siree.

    ….

    Nationalise them.

    When people bring up nationalising rail companies we get a chorus of comments about how bad things used to be vs how they are now, and the benefits that those of us too young to remember the old way do not get.

    It might be a mental block, but I cannot really recall reading about what advantages ostensibly exist with the way the water companies work at present.

    So a genuinely open question - what are the hidden downsides from nationalising them?
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202
    TimS said:

    <<b class="Bold">blockquote class="Quote" rel="TimS">

    YouGov
    @YouGov
    Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (9-10 May)
    Con: 25% (-1 from 3-4 May)
    Lab: 43% (=)
    Lib Dem: 11% (+1)
    Green: 8% (+1)
    Reform UK: 7% (+1)
    SNP: 3% (-1)

    LLG 61 plays RefCon 32. In the pack. Ref and Green overrepresented in the sample hence the relatively low Tory and Lab scores.
    By my maths it’s 62. I see anything above 60 unfeasibly high and just not happening at a general election.

    I also don’t add the reform to Tory. These people were regularly not voting Tory till Boris came along. Farage UKIP never had a great general election, but got huge votes in other elections. Boris swallowed them whole during the last election campaign. Red kippers could more likely return to red than go blue, whilst a great many more may not vote Tory on basis of a botched Brexit UK not as promised got rich from, and far too much Tory Party sleazily helping themselves - even without a Reform candidate they are more likely to stay home than vote Tory.

    Adding all Reform to Tory to get 33% is the most desperate dumbass shit around at the moment.
    Sorry yes 62%.

    Adding the parties up is a useful shorthand because the variance in both green and ref VI is much greater than the variance in the bloc totals. And green and Labour are negatively correlated between pollsters, as are refuk and Con.

    I know they don’t all just fall in line with the big parties come election time, but most people saying Ref are right wing and most saying green are left wing.

    Let’s be honest. On PB we all know the GE is different beast than this years votes in locals. The LLG of 62% will gang up on the Tories, the Tory 25% will gang up on the 62%. Some of the 7% Reform will vote Tory, some of the Reform 7%, pro Brexit, anti migrant invasion, will despair at Tory sleaze and incompetence and not vote at all, some of the Reform 7% will go to Labour, join in with the LLG attack on the Tories.

    A general election is a different beast, any LLG who want change of government and passion to get Tories out, will vote for the one candidate best placed to beat the Tory candidate.

    The picture of State of Play Curtis and Thrasher pushed just a fortnight ago is Labour short of majority. But this was based on greens voting green, Lib Dem’s Lib Dem, labour for labour on General election day just like it’s a council election day - not the very different beast the General Election clearly shaping to be with Starmer ahead on all voters for PM, Labour ahead on every issue including voter favourites NHS and Economy. Our former greatest UK psephologists, (before I came along) pushed their state of play looking so much like a prediction, without including what is going on in Scotland, they included zero tactical vote in what they pushed out. Where there were no local votes in London and wales this year etc, I am not even sure their “Labour will fall short” psephology builds in what Truss done to transform voters opinion dramatically in all those places that didn’t vote this year, they simply included data from a year ago when opinion polls were so very different.

    I actually agree with Heathener on one point, Labour will love Thrasher and Curtis pushing this state of play where every LLG vote is crucial all the way up to general election day, as maximising Labour vote, maximising LLG tactical voting can be the only result of the message Thrasher and Curtis are pushing. And the real kicker - I’m damn sure their state of play isn’t remotely close to the real state of play.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Those Brexit dividends keep coming...

    Jeremy Hunt has offered one of Britain’s biggest car manufacturers half a billion pounds in government subsidies not to go abroad to build a new electric battery “giga-factory”.

    Amid growing concerns in government about the threat facing the UK car industry as it transforms towards electric vehicles, the Treasury has drawn up a package of incentives to pursue Jaguar Land Rover to invest in the UK.

    The company, owned by the Indian conglomerate Tata, is weighing up whether to site a planned new giga-factory production facility for future electric vehicles in the UK or Spain.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-jaguar-landrover-factory-uk-500-million-pounds-5mtdm6dgn

    Not sure what your point is. Spain is already offering up to 837 million euros in subsidies to draw battery manufacturers to the country. This is just how things are done these days.
    Promising to build a battery factory, and then pocketing the subsidies is probably the easiest way to become a billionaire these days.
    Sounds like you might be about to announce a new venture?

    Invest now in EasyVolt - you'll still end up with no batteries, but at half the price of other failed ventures. EasyVolt - it's so good it's a steal.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460

    If Labour make this an absolute election manifesto promise (not like the Edstone!) I'll vote for them.
    https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/18/labour-scottish-style-right-to-roam-law-england

    I agree but Scotland need to change their system as it has been counterproductive.

    I spend a lot of time wandering across land looking at rocks, wildflowers, insects and all manner of stuff. A couple of summers ago I had to spend a couple of months in Scotland and was looking forward to spending lots of time wandering about the Aberdeenshire countryside. The trouble is that now that the Right to Roam has been introduced (which I very much welcome) the OS maps no longer show rights of way. They supposedly show footpaths but since these no longer have a statutory meaning (and many rights of way are not formal footpaths) as they do in England it is very difficult to plan a route in advance and often you turn up and find there are fences or walls making access to land petty much impossible.

    A much saner system would be to continue to mark formal rights of way and continue to ensure that the the landowner has a legal responsibility to keep them clear whiclt everyone also understands that there is no law against wandering off those routes when desired.
    Sounds...unpopular with landowners - they have to maintain paths, but also get no incentive to do so (without punishment) because people can just go anywhere they like.

    I like the idea, but I can see why it might have ended up the way you describe instead.
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,673
    edited May 2023
    OMG a Daily Mail front page I can agree with !

    AI is going to put many people out of work and will cause huge damage to society. Shareholders get bigger dividends and the companies rake in bigger profits but at what cost to humanity .

    We have enjoyed those new technologies over the last few decades and to a point they have enriched life but I fear we’re reaching a fork in the road .

    I truly believe AI is a threat to humanity .

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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915
    kle4 said:

    Two private energy ‘companies’ caught conning customers.

    Various private water ‘companies’ charging taxpayers for cleaning up the shit they have been shovelling into the sea.

    Nothing to see here.

    Oh no, oh no siree.

    ….

    Nationalise them.

    When people bring up nationalising rail companies we get a chorus of comments about how bad things used to be vs how they are now, and the benefits that those of us too young to remember the old way do not get.

    It might be a mental block, but I cannot really recall reading about what advantages ostensibly exist with the way the water companies work at present.

    So a genuinely open question - what are the hidden downsides from nationalising them?
    Here you go:






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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202

    Taz said:

    Sunak out, I guess the man who uses helicopters all the time doesn't appreciate what us working class Northerners have to endure with the trains.

    Ministers have quietly scrapped plans for the biggest shake-up of the railways since privatisation, The Times has learnt.

    Plans for the creation of Great British Railways (GBR), put forward by Boris Johnson as a way to fix Britain’s rail network, have been watered down by No 10.

    Officials at the Department for Transport (DfT) working on the new body, which was due to take over the running of the entire network, have been told it is not a priority for the government and will not be brought forward in the King’s Speech.

    “Those working on it have been told it’s now unlikely to get a legislative slot,” a source said. “Without it they won’t be able to fully create the body, as it requires primary legislation.”

    It is understood there is a battle between the DfT and Downing Street over its creation. Transport ministers are pushing for it to be given parliamentary time but there is pushback from Rishi Sunak, the prime minister, who does not consider the railways a priority for the final session of parliament before the general election.

    A source said: “The simple fact is Sunak doesn’t see the railways as a priority. He was in the Treasury during Covid when all he saw was the railways costing eye-watering amounts of money. He’d ask why so much was being spent to ‘ship fresh air’ around the country.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-boris-johnson-great-british-railways-rmnm23grx

    I wonder what will be a priority - another immigration bill and another police powers bill? I'm guessing there will be a "Labour are on the side of layabouts and shirkers" bill, and perhaps there will be an anodyne "only Tories want to build houses - but definitely not near any of our voters" bill.

    Am I being too cynical, or has any legislation been passed in the last couple of years that wasn't a complete waste of space?
    There's not been much of anything really; the 2019 manifesto was skimpy to the point of near indecency.

    Strange to think that a government that must be able to feel the Grim Reaper's breath on its neck is apparently so apathetic. It has the potential to be a long 17 months.
    They won’t go to January 2024 because it means election campaign and Christmas at same time by decree of government - the voter anger delivers Tory MPs in single digits. The smartest thing I heard is TSE saying 2023 locals day, as the locals shellacking will leave Sunak and government weak and wobbling throughout summer, with more channel boats using halshion weather pushing their polling lower. The Tories get their best 2024 general election result next May, possibly 200+ seats - anything later than next May or June and the likelihood is sub 200 seats.
    Hi Heathener.
    Behave 😠

    One minute I’m called Tory Rabbit, the next Heathener Rabbit. If I can get the two piles balanced right it will confirm my status as the sites most balanced psephologist.

    It wasn’t even that controversial a post Taz? If Tories inflict both Christmas and an election campaign at the same time they have to expect a bad result? My agreement with TSE a good day for GE is same time as next years locals - the results this year had knocked stuffing and authority out them did it not? And an autumn election after halcyon summer of boat crossings?

    Halcyon days is named after a Greek bird that nests in cliffs during nicer weather of summer.
    We will not see Heathener until Leon returns to somewhere with electricity.
    The rest of us are confirmed as real people 🤗

    I’m not sure though, Heathener is a very early bird, the sort of time of day Leon surely has energy crashed into an addled sleep.

    Can’t he show them how to make electricity out of mud? 🤭
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