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Biden remains strong in the betting to win WH2024 – politicalbetting.com
Biden remains strong in the betting to win WH2024 – politicalbetting.com
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Biden remains strong in the betting to win WH2024 – politicalbetting.com
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Ministers have quietly scrapped plans for the biggest shake-up of the railways since privatisation, The Times has learnt.
Plans for the creation of Great British Railways (GBR), put forward by Boris Johnson as a way to fix Britain’s rail network, have been watered down by No 10.
Officials at the Department for Transport (DfT) working on the new body, which was due to take over the running of the entire network, have been told it is not a priority for the government and will not be brought forward in the King’s Speech.
“Those working on it have been told it’s now unlikely to get a legislative slot,” a source said. “Without it they won’t be able to fully create the body, as it requires primary legislation.”
It is understood there is a battle between the DfT and Downing Street over its creation. Transport ministers are pushing for it to be given parliamentary time but there is pushback from Rishi Sunak, the prime minister, who does not consider the railways a priority for the final session of parliament before the general election.
A source said: “The simple fact is Sunak doesn’t see the railways as a priority. He was in the Treasury during Covid when all he saw was the railways costing eye-watering amounts of money. He’d ask why so much was being spent to ‘ship fresh air’ around the country.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-boris-johnson-great-british-railways-rmnm23grx
https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1659248715536662529
Am I being too cynical, or has any legislation been passed in the last couple of years that wasn't a complete waste of space?
I would say it’s £10 though.
Russia’s former first minister for the economy has predicted that western sanctions over the war in Ukraine will push the country into a financial crisis next year.
Andrey Nechayev, 70, warned businessmen attending the Ekaterinburg financial forum this week that the country’s finances were “in the shit”. “And what’s worse is that we’ve decided to settle down there,” he said, in a rare high-level criticism of President Putin’s policies.
The comment drew nervous smiles and was applauded by one member of the audience; in the oppressive environment in wartime Russia dissenters are frequently arrested, tortured and poisoned.
Nechayev added that while food franchises like “McDonald’s can be replaced by blini [Russian pancakes], high-tech products can’t”.
The former minister, in office from 1992 to 1993 after the fall of the Soviet Union, said that Russia had already exceeded its planned budget deficit for the year in the first four months of 2023. While the economy had enough cash reserves to see out the remaining months, it would have to begin borrowing next year, he said.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russia-economy-putin-war-ukraine-kremlin-cfgv557lk
Ipsos better for Biden but still relatively close, Biden 44% Trump 38%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
Railways? No thanks.
Housebuilding? Not near me, thanks.
Sewage in the sea and rivers? Not really our problem - blame our friends and donors in the water industry.
Tax cuts? No, freeze the thresholds.
End leaseholds? No, changed our mind (and people who live in flats are mainly urban Labour voters, so they can do one).
Cut immigration to the tens of thousands? No, let's aim for a million.
Soon, the only Tory voters left will be rural or suburban car-driving, outright house-owning, retired or rich folk who don't go swimming.
This source is just briefing against him.
Strange to think that a government that must be able to feel the Grim Reaper's breath on its neck is apparently so apathetic. It has the potential to be a long 17 months.
By my maths it’s 62. I see anything above 60 unfeasibly high and just not happening at a general election.
I also don’t add the reform to Tory. These people were regularly not voting Tory till Boris came along. Farage UKIP never had a great general election, but got huge votes in other elections. Boris swallowed them whole during the last election campaign. Red kippers could more likely return to red than go blue, whilst a great many more may not vote Tory on basis of a botched Brexit UK not as promised got rich from, and far too much Tory Party sleazily helping themselves - even without a Reform candidate they are more likely to stay home than vote Tory.
Adding all Reform to Tory to get 33% is the most desperate dumbass shit around at the moment.
On the face of it I think these two elderly fools are entirely unsuited to high office. They've both done ok though, and that means that either I'm a fool, or there are others really running things. Let's not get too carried away with the former, it's uninteresting. The latter though is of interest.
Maybe they should dress up as fishermen? They would probably get a massive investment...
(I'll get my Sou'wester and seaproof hat)
I also don’t add the reform to Tory. These people were regularly not voting Tory till Boris came along. Farage UKIP never had a great general election, but got huge votes in other elections. Boris swallowed them whole during the last election campaign. Red kippers could more likely return to red than go blue, whilst a great many more may not vote Tory on basis of a botched Brexit UK not as promised got rich from, and far too much Tory Party sleazily helping themselves - even without a Reform candidate they are more likely to stay home than vote Tory.
Adding all Reform to Tory to get 33% is the most desperate dumbass shit around at the moment.
Sorry yes 62%.
Adding the parties up is a useful shorthand because the variance in both green and ref VI is much greater than the variance in the bloc totals. And green and Labour are negatively correlated between pollsters, as are refuk and Con.
I know they don’t all just fall in line with the big parties come election time, but most people saying Ref are right wing and most saying green are left wing.
Call a GE and we can have a proper railway system that works for us all.
LazarusIstanbul 2005 in Sheffield right now.I also don’t add the reform to Tory. These people were regularly not voting Tory till Boris came along. Farage UKIP never had a great general election, but got huge votes in other elections. Boris swallowed them whole during the last election campaign. Red kippers could more likely return to red than go blue, whilst a great many more may not vote Tory on basis of a botched Brexit UK not as promised got rich from, and far too much Tory Party sleazily helping themselves - even without a Reform candidate they are more likely to stay home than vote Tory.
Adding all Reform to Tory to get 33% is the most desperate dumbass shit around at the moment.
LLG shares over the years (UK figures, so the GB will be even higher) -
1997 - 60
2001 - 60
2005 - 58
2010 - 53
2015 - 42
2017 - 49
2019 - 46
So yes, over 60 on a GB basis would be exceptionally high by historic standards though not unfeasible.
What's not to like?
1997 - 60
2001 - 60
2005 - 58
2010 - 53
2015 - 42
2017 - 49
2019 - 46
So yes, over 60 on a GB basis would be exceptionally high by historic standards though not unfeasible.
97 not bigger than 60, Dec 19 Bloodbath on Corbyn Street election 46 barely bigger than Conservatives on their own.
Thank you for your support. You win a free poster of the British President and First Lady arriving in style.
https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/18/labour-scottish-style-right-to-roam-law-england
Sometimes, I don’t understand people.
One minute I’m called Tory Rabbit, the next Heathener Rabbit. If I can get the two piles balanced right it will confirm my status as the sites most balanced psephologist.
It wasn’t even that controversial a post Taz? If Tories inflict both Christmas and an election campaign at the same time they have to expect a bad result? My agreement with TSE a good day for GE is same time as next years locals - the results this year had knocked stuffing and authority out them did it not? And an autumn election after halcyon summer of boat crossings?
Halcyon days is named after a Greek bird that nests in cliffs during nicer weather of summer.
I spend a lot of time wandering across land looking at rocks, wildflowers, insects and all manner of stuff. A couple of summers ago I had to spend a couple of months in Scotland and was looking forward to spending lots of time wandering about the Aberdeenshire countryside. The trouble is that now that the Right to Roam has been introduced (which I very much welcome) the OS maps no longer show rights of way. They supposedly show footpaths but since these no longer have a statutory meaning (and many rights of way are not formal footpaths) as they do in England it is very difficult to plan a route in advance and often you turn up and find there are fences or walls making access to land petty much impossible.
A much saner system would be to continue to mark formal rights of way and continue to ensure that the the landowner has a legal responsibility to keep them clear whiclt everyone also understands that there is no law against wandering off those routes when desired.
Thank you for your support. You win a free poster of the British President and First Lady arriving in style.
It's another of those ingenious perspective tricks where Sunak's titchyness is obscured.
On your earlier point - May '24 is probably rational and as good as it gets (though April might be a bit better, if Conservative dreams involve channeling the spirit of '92).
But given the chance, however slim, that something will turn up between spring and October next year, the temptation to hang on a bit will be hard to resist. Though any later than that would be to show an absolute death wish.
The lack of marked foorpaths is a real pain.
That's not my ND. I don't hate them but I'd rather have the Fiat 124 version.
More pertinently, why is the Labour lead edging upwards again?
CoL and mortgage rates hitting home? Voters reacting to the poor Tory locals showing? Or is the 'culture war' actually a voter turn-off?
https://www.outdooraccess-scotland.scot/sites/default/files/2019-06/Paper - Ramblers Scotland - Mapping Scotlands Paths - 30 January 2019.pdf
Jeremy Hunt has offered one of Britain’s biggest car manufacturers half a billion pounds in government subsidies not to go abroad to build a new electric battery “giga-factory”.
Amid growing concerns in government about the threat facing the UK car industry as it transforms towards electric vehicles, the Treasury has drawn up a package of incentives to pursue Jaguar Land Rover to invest in the UK.
The company, owned by the Indian conglomerate Tata, is weighing up whether to site a planned new giga-factory production facility for future electric vehicles in the UK or Spain.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-jaguar-landrover-factory-uk-500-million-pounds-5mtdm6dgn
https://www.reuters.com/technology/northvolt-build-multi-billion-euro-battery-plant-germany-2023-05-12/
So Scott how is this anything to do with Brexit if Germany feels the need to pay these same "subsidies"?
Take a look at what happens in major sports in the US. Where cities bribe billionaires to bring their teams in.
These Indians are taking the piss.
Just down the road from Solihull’s JLR plant, some kid with a sewing machine and an understanding of viral marketing made a billion pound company.
EV’s are legacy tech. Just buy them in, as white goods, from china at £10k/pop or whatever.
Given the king and his wife's record with the media, I wouldn't be surprised if he was behind this story, because it's interesting the BBC didn't see fit to say yeah, that was 5000 nurses' worth of money on the funeral and another 5000 or whatever on the more recent embarrassment that was the coronation.
Just to add when Redfield & Wilton asked Reform supporters how they would vote if there were no Reform candidate in their constituency, just a quarter said they would vote Conservative, 15% would back Labour and the majority (52%) wouldn't vote so this notion the "true" centre-right figure is Conservative plus Reform is nonsense.
Various private water ‘companies’ charging taxpayers for cleaning up the shit they have been shovelling into the sea.
Nothing to see here.
Oh no, oh no siree.
….
Nationalise them.
So Con + Ref isn’t the true Tory vote nor is Lab + Green the true Labour vote, but s portion of each will switch at a GE and totalling up the broadly right and left blocs gives a good indication of overall sentiment - which suggests 2/3 to 1/3 at the moment.
@drjennings
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1h
It is remarkable how normalised the Conservatives polling in the mid-20s has become. It barely registers any interest now.
https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1659290385145905152
The mystery is why the previous Pentagon briefing stated it would take up to 18 months, a remark they must have known to be a de facto lie. So why tell it?
This Disney business for instance. Maybe it still looks cool to the GOP voters to take on the woke mouse, IDK, but that he is locked in some death struggle with them for so long still makes him look weak.
It might be a mental block, but I cannot really recall reading about what advantages ostensibly exist with the way the water companies work at present.
So a genuinely open question - what are the hidden downsides from nationalising them?
Adding the parties up is a useful shorthand because the variance in both green and ref VI is much greater than the variance in the bloc totals. And green and Labour are negatively correlated between pollsters, as are refuk and Con.
I know they don’t all just fall in line with the big parties come election time, but most people saying Ref are right wing and most saying green are left wing.
Let’s be honest. On PB we all know the GE is different beast than this years votes in locals. The LLG of 62% will gang up on the Tories, the Tory 25% will gang up on the 62%. Some of the 7% Reform will vote Tory, some of the Reform 7%, pro Brexit, anti migrant invasion, will despair at Tory sleaze and incompetence and not vote at all, some of the Reform 7% will go to Labour, join in with the LLG attack on the Tories.
A general election is a different beast, any LLG who want change of government and passion to get Tories out, will vote for the one candidate best placed to beat the Tory candidate.
The picture of State of Play Curtis and Thrasher pushed just a fortnight ago is Labour short of majority. But this was based on greens voting green, Lib Dem’s Lib Dem, labour for labour on General election day just like it’s a council election day - not the very different beast the General Election clearly shaping to be with Starmer ahead on all voters for PM, Labour ahead on every issue including voter favourites NHS and Economy. Our former greatest UK psephologists, (before I came along) pushed their state of play looking so much like a prediction, without including what is going on in Scotland, they included zero tactical vote in what they pushed out. Where there were no local votes in London and wales this year etc, I am not even sure their “Labour will fall short” psephology builds in what Truss done to transform voters opinion dramatically in all those places that didn’t vote this year, they simply included data from a year ago when opinion polls were so very different.
I actually agree with Heathener on one point, Labour will love Thrasher and Curtis pushing this state of play where every LLG vote is crucial all the way up to general election day, as maximising Labour vote, maximising LLG tactical voting can be the only result of the message Thrasher and Curtis are pushing. And the real kicker - I’m damn sure their state of play isn’t remotely close to the real state of play.
Invest now in EasyVolt - you'll still end up with no batteries, but at half the price of other failed ventures. EasyVolt - it's so good it's a steal.
I like the idea, but I can see why it might have ended up the way you describe instead.
AI is going to put many people out of work and will cause huge damage to society. Shareholders get bigger dividends and the companies rake in bigger profits but at what cost to humanity .
We have enjoyed those new technologies over the last few decades and to a point they have enriched life but I fear we’re reaching a fork in the road .
I truly believe AI is a threat to humanity .
I’m not sure though, Heathener is a very early bird, the sort of time of day Leon surely has energy crashed into an addled sleep.
Can’t he show them how to make electricity out of mud? 🤭