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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Iain Dale predicts that the LDs will win 30-35 seats at GE2015. Seat by seat these are his forecasts.
It is a brave man who fifteen months before a general election seeks to predict the outcome in all the 57 seats that the Lib Dems will be defending but that is what Ian Dale has done this morning.
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"Dare we ask if the transfer of power to ESMA triggers the referendum lock, the legal commitment meant to prevent governments from handing over further powers to Brussels without a public vote?
The government wasn’t expecting London to be subject to those powers on short selling, so presumably they must be new."
http://www.cityam.com/article/1391561167/brussels-trying-bury-city-forcing-it-play-warped-eu-rules
I don't see where he gets this. The Conservatives don't seem to have any local organisation in Eastleigh.
http://www.eastleighnews.co.uk/2013/05/2013-county-election-results/
Both unlikely IMO
One I have doubts about is Eastbourne. Local Tories I've spoken to think it will be quite a tough one to win.
wimmin
wimmin
ed - wimmin here.
IIRC, OGH has indicated a likely 2 LibDem/Con gains.
Also not sure about the 'dead certs' in Scotland. I got the impression that the Lib Dems were about as popular up there as Edward I.
Also, obligatory mention of my tip for Labour to beat Clegg in Hallam, but I can't be bothered getting into that argument again :P
The local Conservative association is disorganised, amateur and factionalised, sadly.
For a few years there was a a sub-community on PB playing the game of Diplomacy, then for various reasons it died away. Recently Luicien_Fletcher, gent of this Parish, put up a post for a new game and it "sold-out" inside half-an-hour. If you weren't on line when it came up then you missed it, and I know there were several posters who would have liked to have joined if they had got the chance.
That game has been running very successfully for a couple of weeks and has had its fair share of plots, schemes, back-stabbings and mild skull-duggery. It is also reaching the point were the first eliminations could be expected to take place in the near future.
So, it occurs that it might be time to kick off a new game or, maybe, two. You see, experience has shown that everyone's enjoyment is improved if the players are, generally-speaking, and taking one thing with another, on much the same level. I therefore propose to set up two games:
PB Diplomacy Novice Hurdles
A standard game* open to only those who have not previously been either an outright winner or a member of a wining alliance.
PB Diplmacy 2014 Death Match
A standard game with one exception, there can only be one winner alliances are not allowed. One player has to make 18 centres to win. Anyone can join but be aware this is going to be a devious, vicious, no holds barred, bring a gun to a knife fight sort of game. Not really for novices, the feint-hearted or anyone who likes their gaming fair and honest. To give a clue as to the type of game I expect, I am trying to tempt Andy Cooke back to play (and hopefully to comment on the site again).
Those who are interested in either game should email me at HurstLlama at gmail dot com for details.
*For those who don't know Diplomacy is a game without dice, without any element of external luck which is built around one central paradox: there are 7 players each of whom want to win but it is impossible for any one player to win on their own they must enlist allies amongst the other 6 to help them. The game is therefore one of negotiation, deceit, blackmail, treachery and all round good-fellowship. The rules can be learned in half an hour but the play depends on human interaction and so is eternal and unlimited.
When the majority is 8765 in Danny's seat and 1771 in Eastleigh those are some telling odds.
twitter.com/sophiepierce/status/430998381398614016/photo/1
That's the Cornish economy fecked. I've travelled that line many times. It's the only railway into the county.
All types of demographics which are likely to punish the Lib Dems heavily in 2015.
When I die you will find that "W" place carved into my heart.
Number theorists do study alternate number systems, such as the Gaussian integers (ones of the form a+bi, a and b both conventional integers). In that system, five isn't prime, because 5=(2+i)(2-i). More generally, we can look at fields of polynomials with integer coefficients, modulo any chosen polynomial.
However, it can be shown any integer-like system, in a certain technical sense, contains the standard integers. Thus, none of them can have four be prime unless mathematics is internally inconsistent.
At this point, we run into the Godel incompleteness theorems. Maths can't prove itself consistent. However, since if it isn't, all logic collapses, and your bank balance is simultaneously £6,819, -£125,000*i, and an annoyed orange dragon carved from pure diamond, we may as well assume maths is consistent. It's the only way we'll ever get anywhere sane.
Public sector workers do not dominate the seat and Hallam is one of the most prosperous seats in the north.
Electors also enjoy having a party leader as their MP and recent elections indicate clearly the LibDems remain dominant in the seat.
Dead Cert LibDem Hold
In terms of LD gains - OxWandAb is a reasonable potential.
A real mess.
In the Scottish Parliament elections of 2011, they also started with 11 seats, and retained just 2 of them, Orkney and Shetland respectively. And those two together combine into just 1 UK parliamentary constituency.
In the absence of any sign of any Lib Dem revival whatsoever in Scotland, that prediction is nonsense.
On the other hand I suspect he is being just a little optimistic about possible tory gains in England. If the tory vote is going down and UKIP is going up I fear a number of these targets will slip away.
One thing this brings home is that the window for a working coalition in the next Parliament is likely to be considerably smaller than it is in this one.
1) There are very few university students living in Sheffield Hallam, they live in neighbouring constituencies.
2) It isn't very Northern in many respects, insofar as up to 2008, it was the second most wealthiest/prosperous constituency in the country. IIRC it is now 4th, but the prospertity and wealth have increased since 2008, but have been overtaken by a few Southern Seats
3) Considering the way Labour u-turned over the uni fees vote (when in Govt they said they would abide by the reports conclusions), Labour are't exactly popular with Uni staff.
I write this, whilst in the constituency.
Looks like a tall order for the Tories.
http://www.iaindale.com/posts/2014/02/05/why-the-libdem-seats-will-win-30-35-seats-in-2015
Oxford West and Abingdon, and Montgomeryshire.
However what is probable is that a few likely holds will go and a few likely losses will be held and an improbable gain hovered up.
A split tactical vote (Its not clear who is best placed to challenge) and I'd guess the Conservatives will pedal very very softly in his constituency !
He may survive but its going to be bloody close on the night.
Top post, Mr. Sheffield! Most enjoyable.
Of course, Godel himself ended up barking mad and was a believer in the after-life, which sort of takes us back to where the original discussion began.
Lab polled 25.1%
SNP 24.7%
Con 22.6%
http://tinyurl.com/prztwy8
*chortle*
Berwickshire & Roxburgh, NE Fife and West Aberdeenshire likely holds.
Argyll, Edinburgh West, Gordon, East Dunbartonshire likely lost.
2) A Northern seat isn't even so much about wealth anymore -- as I said in a thread the other day, there's been a growing feeling among even middle-class northerners (especially those who aren't in rural areas) over the past 20 years or so that the Tories don't like them and single out the north for bad treatment. Sheffield Council getting heavy cuts will have furthered this impression that constituency
3) I think you made the point a while ago that tuition fees weren't actually particularly unpopular among university staff, and I would generally agree with that - BUT that's NOT the reason why university academics in my experience (generally, not in Hallam in particular) are swinging away from the Lib Dems. The main reason is the economic policies of the government and how hard they've been on the poor, which the "bleeding-heart" Guardianistas who dominate university ranks disapprove of. Plus, Iraq was one of the main reasons this group went away from Labour in the first place, and Labour have now "repented" for that by electing a leader who was (or claims he was) against the war, and they voted against Syria.
I'm also aware that the Lib Dems have held up reasonably well in the Hallam wards in local elections, but I personally am pretty much discounting those. I'm well aware that there's a good chance that I'll be wrong, and frankly I'm overegging my certainty a bit just for the sake of having a good debate! But I do genuinely think Labour have atleast a good 30% chance of taking it.
As it happens my uncle lives in DA's constituency, is an LD member and has campaigned on his behalf; I must check out the LD lie of the land.
I think the Coalition announced the A30 would be dualled in the places where it isn't already.
Finally, one of the strongest parts of the Cornish economy is tourism, and one hopes they'll have the train line up and running in the spring, when the storms have died down.
Keep calm, eh?
Part 3) Hallam went Lib Dem long before Iraq. Additionally, in 2005, the Labour share of the vote went up, so there wasn't much of an Iraq effect in Sheffield Hallam, quite the opposite.
They did send him a message, the Lib Dems held the council seats comfortably, and with swings a lot less than seen elsewhere in the country, IIRC, in a couple of seats there was a swing to the Lib Dems.
As for Sheffield council, with their record it would be foolish to give them more than the absolute minimum.
What will that mean? Well let's say there are 9 SNP plus Plaid and 18 Northern Ireland MPs. Added to the LD MPs that gives us 62. So that will mean 588 Tory + Labour MPs. A government would need 326 MPs for a majority. This would be complicated by the no show of Sinn Fein MPs. Nonetheless a government would probably need 330 MPs to be stable. That means that Tory or Lab need 295 MPs if we assume the LDs are reduced to 35. However they can only have 588 between them. So it isn't possible for both parties to get to 295. This surely puts to bed the idea that the Lib Dems will be able to choose their coalitio partners. They will only be able to go with the Party that has the most MPs.
And then of the course, the elephant in the room, Scottish independence.........
What would happen in the event of a Yes vote? Hard to say but I reckon the SNP could make big gains at a Westminster election and they swept the board in 2011. Scots would be looking for MPs that would help them negotiate the best possible deal on independence. So they might get 35 MPs at least. And perhaps wipe the Lib Dems out north of the border? But the idea of them going into a Westminster coalition is unthinkable, surely? So let us reduce the number of Lib Dem MPs to 30 and now we have a Labour Tory total of 564. So unless Lab/Tory can get to 295 - which would be 26 more than the other we could be facing carnage. Here's an election result post a Yes vote:
Tory - 284
Labour - 280
SNP - 35
Lib Dem - 30
DUP - 8
Other NI - 10
Plaid - 3
Expect carnage, absolute carnage. The only viable solution might be a grand coalition with Ed or Dave as PM and the other Deputy whilst we negotiate Scotlan'ds leaving the Union. The key is to look at the performance of the SNP relative to the Lib Dems. If Salmond does well/Clegg badly after a Yes vote it could get very messy indeed.
Calamity Clegg's latest master strategy for the EU elections.
He's trying to turn it into a mini-referendum and vote on being IN or OUT of Europe.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DvKc_5GqX2I&feature=youtu.be
I'm fairly certainly that won't be the route Cammie goes down unless he wants his backbenchers to run about like headless chickens even more than usual.
A 'brave' choice indeed for Clegg to accuse others of not having the courage of their convictions. The voters should love that.
I also seem to recall the last time Clegg became the public face of a referendum choice it didn't turn out so well for him or the lib dems.
I can see persuasive arguments for both Lab and the SNP.
Interesting piece from Iain with whom I once shared a History seminar in the early 80s - nowhere as vocal then as he is now. He also has "form" standing against an LD so his views are to be respected.
I can't comment on the bulk of his predictions because I don't have specific local knowledge. One area I would comment on is London and specifically the two seats in the Borough of Sutton. Tom Brake, who once had coffee in my flat, may not be everyone's idea of the charismatic politician but he was a hard-working councillor and then MP (ditto Paul Burstow apart from the coffee).
This year's Borough elections will be hugely informative as I've argued many times on this forum and the London results will tell us all we need to know (and are far more significant than the Euro elections) about the prospects for the three main parties (and UKIP too).
On that subject, I'm enjoying my day off at Stodge Towers and the doorbell goes - normally on Wednesday it's God calling but today it was a Conservative canvasser (one of the likely candidates who called himself a Tory throughout). Very poor canvasser to be honest - accused Labour voters of "voting blindly". I pointed out that with Labour polling 70% in the Ward in 2010, the opticians would be doing very good business if he was right.
Labour won all 60 seats in Newham last time - it's hard to think they won't do the same this time. Perhaps Alan Craig or one of his cohorts will sneak back in Canning Town or a Respect candidate might win in Green Street East or the Tories may yet win Royal Docks but all these look long shots to me.
Not sure about that myself.
You attacked the guardian piece on Batten and you weren't happy with the Mail piece either just like I said.v Anyone can check the threads to see that's the case. Anyone apart from you it would seem.
Lab gain Sheffield Hallam ..... How am I doing ?!?
I'll be back in Edinburgh next month, where my mission is to find a non UKIP/SDL supporting Taxi Driver.
They were interesting in how they foresaw the referendum turning out, when I was there last year.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/transport/scottish-independence-taxis-to-drive-yes-vote-1-3289688
I doubt many people have noticed that he's a minister.