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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Iain Dale predicts that the LDs will win 30-35 seats at GE2

SystemSystem Posts: 11,795
edited February 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Iain Dale predicts that the LDs will win 30-35 seats at GE2015. Seat by seat these are his forecasts.

It is a brave man who fifteen months before a general election seeks to predict the outcome in all the 57 seats that the Lib Dems will be defending but that is what Ian Dale has done this morning.

Read the full story here


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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Well at least Mrs Dale knows how to lose a seat to the LibDems !!
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    Is anything a "Dead cert hold"? Wasn't Portillo supposed to hold onto Enfield Southgate?
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    Where is Martin Day when he is needed after all this time?
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Nigel Farage:
    "Dare we ask if the transfer of power to ESMA triggers the referendum lock, the legal commitment meant to prevent governments from handing over further powers to Brussels without a public vote?

    The government wasn’t expecting London to be subject to those powers on short selling, so presumably they must be new."

    http://www.cityam.com/article/1391561167/brussels-trying-bury-city-forcing-it-play-warped-eu-rules
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Danny Alexander - dead cert - must be a decent price ?
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    MIke, the link to Iain Dale's full article doesn't work
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Iain Dale's 30-35 figure is in line with the latest ARSE general election prediction of 35 seats for the LibDems that was published yesterday morning.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Eastleigh: possible Con gain?

    I don't see where he gets this. The Conservatives don't seem to have any local organisation in Eastleigh.

    http://www.eastleighnews.co.uk/2013/05/2013-county-election-results/
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Just about to walk into pictures to watch 12 Years in Chas and Dave... Wonder how many people will have taken the amazing value of 4/5 Con to bt Ukip in Thurrock 15 by the time the films over? Or whether @MickPork will have substantiated the nonsense he is pretending to believe regarding me and the Batten charter last night??

    Both unlikely IMO
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    Kudos to Iain for putting his head so conspicuously over the parapet. It looks a very plausible set of predictions.

    One I have doubts about is Eastbourne. Local Tories I've spoken to think it will be quite a tough one to win.
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    JackW said:

    Iain Dale's 30-35 figure is in line with the latest ARSE general election prediction of 35 seats for the LibDems that was published yesterday morning.

    What is the methodology for your poll Jack? I have now asked this question a number of times without a single sensible response. Am I to assume you just pull it out of your ARSE?
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    wimmin
    wimmin
    wimmin
    ed - wimmin here.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,143
    INVERNESS, NAIRN, BADENOCH & STRATHSPEY No way I'd have it down as a dead cert Lib Dem hold.

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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Kudos to Iain for putting his head so conspicuously over the parapet. It looks a very plausible set of predictions.

    One I have doubts about is Eastbourne. Local Tories I've spoken to think it will be quite a tough one to win.

    One other factor. In which seats will LibDems return the favour ??

    IIRC, OGH has indicated a likely 2 LibDem/Con gains.

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    The seat totals feel about right. Not so sure about the specific projections; it seems a bit optimistic for the Conservatives - they certainly won't pick up Eastleigh.

    Also not sure about the 'dead certs' in Scotland. I got the impression that the Lib Dems were about as popular up there as Edward I.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited February 2014
    If anything, I think his forecasts are too optimistic for the Lib Dems, especially with regards to Scotland. Gordon is almost definitely gone with the incumbent stepping down, Edinburgh West is highly likely to go, and even though Danny Alexander has a big majority, never underestimate the Scots' penchant for tactically-voting against any Tories (which will now extend to most Tory-sympathising LibDems) - I can see SNP voters in that constituency rallying round the Labour candidate solely to kick Alexander out.

    Also, obligatory mention of my tip for Labour to beat Clegg in Hallam, but I can't be bothered getting into that argument again :P
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,143
    I can see the Lib Dems holding Eastleigh and losing Inverness !
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    Iain Dale's 30-35 figure is in line with the latest ARSE general election prediction of 35 seats for the LibDems that was published yesterday morning.

    What is the methodology for your poll Jack? I have now asked this question a number of times without a single sensible response. Am I to assume you just pull it out of your ARSE?
    My single sensible response to you is never mind the methodology feel the profits !!

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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,289
    Why?!
    Pulpstar said:

    I can see the Lib Dems holding Eastleigh and losing Inverness !

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    Eastleigh: possible Con gain?

    I don't see where he gets this. The Conservatives don't seem to have any local organisation in Eastleigh.

    http://www.eastleighnews.co.uk/2013/05/2013-county-election-results/

    Eastleigh has been a possible Con Gain since about 2001. It's been out of reach every time. No matter how much the Tories have tried, the Lib Dems have tried harder. Plus the Lib Dem local council is pretty well-run.

    The local Conservative association is disorganised, amateur and factionalised, sadly.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    PB Diplomacy is Back!

    For a few years there was a a sub-community on PB playing the game of Diplomacy, then for various reasons it died away. Recently Luicien_Fletcher, gent of this Parish, put up a post for a new game and it "sold-out" inside half-an-hour. If you weren't on line when it came up then you missed it, and I know there were several posters who would have liked to have joined if they had got the chance.

    That game has been running very successfully for a couple of weeks and has had its fair share of plots, schemes, back-stabbings and mild skull-duggery. It is also reaching the point were the first eliminations could be expected to take place in the near future.

    So, it occurs that it might be time to kick off a new game or, maybe, two. You see, experience has shown that everyone's enjoyment is improved if the players are, generally-speaking, and taking one thing with another, on much the same level. I therefore propose to set up two games:

    PB Diplomacy Novice Hurdles

    A standard game* open to only those who have not previously been either an outright winner or a member of a wining alliance.


    PB Diplmacy 2014 Death Match

    A standard game with one exception, there can only be one winner alliances are not allowed. One player has to make 18 centres to win. Anyone can join but be aware this is going to be a devious, vicious, no holds barred, bring a gun to a knife fight sort of game. Not really for novices, the feint-hearted or anyone who likes their gaming fair and honest. To give a clue as to the type of game I expect, I am trying to tempt Andy Cooke back to play (and hopefully to comment on the site again).

    Those who are interested in either game should email me at HurstLlama at gmail dot com for details.

    *For those who don't know Diplomacy is a game without dice, without any element of external luck which is built around one central paradox: there are 7 players each of whom want to win but it is impossible for any one player to win on their own they must enlist allies amongst the other 6 to help them. The game is therefore one of negotiation, deceit, blackmail, treachery and all round good-fellowship. The rules can be learned in half an hour but the play depends on human interaction and so is eternal and unlimited.
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    JackW said:


    One other factor. In which seats will LibDems return the favour ??

    IIRC, OGH has indicated a likely 2 LibDem/Con gains.

    Indeed. Watford could be one, but we've been burnt before in Watford! Maybe Oxford W & Abingdon if tactical voting holds up?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,143
    fitalass said:

    Why?!

    Pulpstar said:

    I can see the Lib Dems holding Eastleigh and losing Inverness !

    The Lib Dems are about as popular as a bad STD in Scotland, that's why !
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,143
    edited February 2014
    Pulpstar said:

    fitalass said:



    Pulpstar said:

    I can see the Lib Dems holding Eastleigh and losing Inverness !

    The Lib Dems are about as popular as a bad STD in Scotland, that's why !
    Note the Lib Dems are a shorter price to hold Eastleigh than Inverness - 4/6 for Danny and 8/15 for Eastleigh...

    When the majority is 8765 in Danny's seat and 1771 in Eastleigh those are some telling odds.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Danny565 said:

    If anything, I think his forecasts are too optimistic for the Lib Dems, especially with regards to Scotland. Gordon is almost definitely gone with the incumbent stepping down, Edinburgh West is highly likely to go, and even though Danny Alexander has a big majority, never underestimate the Scots' penchant for tactically-voting against any Tories (which will now extend to most Tory-sympathising LibDems) - I can see SNP voters in that constituency rallying round the Labour candidate solely to kick Alexander out.

    Also, obligatory mention of my tip for Labour to beat Clegg in Hallam, but I can't be bothered getting into that argument again :P

    Your prediction of Labour to beat Clegg isn't so much a tip but the biggest pile of rubbish in the history of tips !!

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    GildasGildas Posts: 92
    edited February 2014
    This photo from Dawlish is incredible.

    twitter.com/sophiepierce/status/430998381398614016/photo/1

    That's the Cornish economy fecked. I've travelled that line many times. It's the only railway into the county.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited February 2014
    JackW said:

    Danny565 said:

    If anything, I think his forecasts are too optimistic for the Lib Dems, especially with regards to Scotland. Gordon is almost definitely gone with the incumbent stepping down, Edinburgh West is highly likely to go, and even though Danny Alexander has a big majority, never underestimate the Scots' penchant for tactically-voting against any Tories (which will now extend to most Tory-sympathising LibDems) - I can see SNP voters in that constituency rallying round the Labour candidate solely to kick Alexander out.

    Also, obligatory mention of my tip for Labour to beat Clegg in Hallam, but I can't be bothered getting into that argument again :P

    Your prediction of Labour to beat Clegg isn't so much a tip but the biggest pile of rubbish in the history of tips !!

    Sheffield Hallam is a seat which is public-sector-worker-dominated, has lots of students and liberal university staff, is suburban, and northern.

    All types of demographics which are likely to punish the Lib Dems heavily in 2015.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:


    One other factor. In which seats will LibDems return the favour ??

    IIRC, OGH has indicated a likely 2 LibDem/Con gains.

    Indeed. Watford could be one, but we've been burnt before in Watford! Maybe Oxford W & Abingdon if tactical voting holds up?
    Don't mention the "W" place to me ....

    When I die you will find that "W" place carved into my heart.

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,143
    Clegg is safe as houses. Danny isn't.
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    From previous thread., re HurstLlama

    Number theorists do study alternate number systems, such as the Gaussian integers (ones of the form a+bi, a and b both conventional integers). In that system, five isn't prime, because 5=(2+i)(2-i). More generally, we can look at fields of polynomials with integer coefficients, modulo any chosen polynomial.

    However, it can be shown any integer-like system, in a certain technical sense, contains the standard integers. Thus, none of them can have four be prime unless mathematics is internally inconsistent.

    At this point, we run into the Godel incompleteness theorems. Maths can't prove itself consistent. However, since if it isn't, all logic collapses, and your bank balance is simultaneously £6,819, -£125,000*i, and an annoyed orange dragon carved from pure diamond, we may as well assume maths is consistent. It's the only way we'll ever get anywhere sane.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Danny565 said:

    JackW said:

    Danny565 said:

    If anything, I think his forecasts are too optimistic for the Lib Dems, especially with regards to Scotland. Gordon is almost definitely gone with the incumbent stepping down, Edinburgh West is highly likely to go, and even though Danny Alexander has a big majority, never underestimate the Scots' penchant for tactically-voting against any Tories (which will now extend to most Tory-sympathising LibDems) - I can see SNP voters in that constituency rallying round the Labour candidate solely to kick Alexander out.

    Also, obligatory mention of my tip for Labour to beat Clegg in Hallam, but I can't be bothered getting into that argument again :P

    Your prediction of Labour to beat Clegg isn't so much a tip but the biggest pile of rubbish in the history of tips !!

    Sheffield Hallam is a seat which is public-sector-worker-dominated, has lots of students and liberal university staff, is suburban, and northern.

    All types of demographics which are likely to punish the Lib Dems heavily in 2015.
    You are deluded Sir.

    Public sector workers do not dominate the seat and Hallam is one of the most prosperous seats in the north.

    Electors also enjoy having a party leader as their MP and recent elections indicate clearly the LibDems remain dominant in the seat.

    Dead Cert LibDem Hold

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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited February 2014
    Pulpstar said:

    INVERNESS, NAIRN, BADENOCH & STRATHSPEY No way I'd have it down as a dead cert Lib Dem hold.

    LOL
    Lib Dems accuse Danny Alexander of ‘going native’ at the Treasury as he backs George Osborne's plans for more spending cuts

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/lib-dems-accuse-danny-alexander-of-going-native-at-the-treasury-as-he-backs-george-osbornes-plans-for-more-spending-cuts-9105417.html

    Danny Alexander: The Tories couldn't have done it without us

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/liberaldemocrats/10308762/Danny-Alexander-The-Tories-couldnt-have-done-it-without-us.html
    More you say?
    poll suggests Lib Dems face Scottish mainland wipeout

    If the results were to be repeated in the 2015 general election then such a scenario would see Sir Menzies Campbell, Danny Alexander and current Scottish Secretary Michael Moore all lose their seats

    http://newsnetscotland.com/index.php/scottish-politics/6902-new-poll-suggests-lib-dems-face-scottish-mainland-wipeout

    Scotland is also a huge problem. Although their polling support is down by the same 12 points or so there as in England, they were already at rock bottom in half of Scotland in 2010 (losing 12 points would give them negative votes in 30 Scottish seats). The drop must be concentrated in the seats where they polled reasonably well in 2010. They are in serious danger of losing up to 10 of their 11 Scottish seats.

    The crucial thing for the Liberal Democrats is whether differentiating themselves from the Conservatives, the visceral anti-Toryism of progressive voters, and Ukip, can save the suburban and south-western seats they hold against the Tories. Last year I ventured that the Liberal Democrats would get 35-40 seats. That still feels about right, but a bit of a closer look at the history and at Scotland makes me think that 35 is more likely than 40.

    http://www.progressonline.org.uk/2014/01/31/how-will-the-lib-dems-actually-do/
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    currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    As an Eastleigh resident my main bet at the next election is on a tory win in Eastleigh., as long as they get a less interesting candidate
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    The lib dems are of course still flatlining at 10% just like they have been since late 2010.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Lewes has a big university population, if the tuition fees issue is going to hurt the Lib Dems then one would expect it to do so here. My feel is that it won't (it is ancient history and it didn't affect the lives and livelihoods of the voters) and Baker will cruise the election without breaking a sweat.
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    LennonLennon Posts: 1,753
    Interesting from Iain, and fair play on him for putting it up early and being prepared to be shot at. The difficulty is that whilst they generally sound plausible, I suspect that of the 'possibles' only (say) 50% will actually go - so that 35 becomes 40-45 retained + 3 or so gains for a Net loss of (about) 10. All above assumes IndyRef in Scotland goes No of course.

    In terms of LD gains - OxWandAb is a reasonable potential.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,635
    Gildas said:

    This photo from Dawlish is incredible.

    twitter.com/sophiepierce/status/430998381398614016/photo/1

    That's the Cornish economy fecked. I've travelled that line many times. It's the only railway into the county.

    It looks from the BBC photos as is one of those houses is right at the edge as well - that'll probably have to be demolished, as may some of its neighbours. Looking at Google Maps, the houses in the background may be safe, but they're also cut off - that's the only road in.

    A real mess.
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    So the Lib Dems is predicted to retain 10 out of their 11 Scottish seats, losing just East Dumbartonshire to Labour.

    In the Scottish Parliament elections of 2011, they also started with 11 seats, and retained just 2 of them, Orkney and Shetland respectively. And those two together combine into just 1 UK parliamentary constituency.

    In the absence of any sign of any Lib Dem revival whatsoever in Scotland, that prediction is nonsense.
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    "are", not "is"
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    GildasGildas Posts: 92

    So the Lib Dems is predicted to retain 10 out of their 11 Scottish seats, losing just East Dumbartonshire to Labour.

    In the Scottish Parliament elections of 2011, they also started with 11 seats, and retained just 2 of them, Orkney and Shetland respectively. And those two together combine into just 1 UK parliamentary constituency.

    In the absence of any sign of any Lib Dem revival whatsoever in Scotland, that prediction is nonsense.

    Good point. Libs will surely be hammered in Scotland. Dale is predicting that incumbency is everything, and it ain't.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,957
    Personally I think that Mr Dale has failed to appreciate the extent of the collapse of Lib Dem support in Scotland. I will be surprised if they hold more than 2 of of Gordon, Berwickshire, North East Fife, West Aberdeenshire, Argyll and Edinburgh West. I fear for Danny Alexander too although he is a Lib Dem I would certainly vote for.

    On the other hand I suspect he is being just a little optimistic about possible tory gains in England. If the tory vote is going down and UKIP is going up I fear a number of these targets will slip away.

    One thing this brings home is that the window for a working coalition in the next Parliament is likely to be considerably smaller than it is in this one.
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    Danny565 said:

    JackW said:

    Danny565 said:

    If anything, I think his forecasts are too optimistic for the Lib Dems, especially with regards to Scotland. Gordon is almost definitely gone with the incumbent stepping down, Edinburgh West is highly likely to go, and even though Danny Alexander has a big majority, never underestimate the Scots' penchant for tactically-voting against any Tories (which will now extend to most Tory-sympathising LibDems) - I can see SNP voters in that constituency rallying round the Labour candidate solely to kick Alexander out.

    Also, obligatory mention of my tip for Labour to beat Clegg in Hallam, but I can't be bothered getting into that argument again :P

    Your prediction of Labour to beat Clegg isn't so much a tip but the biggest pile of rubbish in the history of tips !!

    Sheffield Hallam is a seat which is public-sector-worker-dominated, has lots of students and liberal university staff, is suburban, and northern.

    All types of demographics which are likely to punish the Lib Dems heavily in 2015.
    There speaks someone who has never been to Sheffield Hallam.

    1) There are very few university students living in Sheffield Hallam, they live in neighbouring constituencies.

    2) It isn't very Northern in many respects, insofar as up to 2008, it was the second most wealthiest/prosperous constituency in the country. IIRC it is now 4th, but the prospertity and wealth have increased since 2008, but have been overtaken by a few Southern Seats

    3) Considering the way Labour u-turned over the uni fees vote (when in Govt they said they would abide by the reports conclusions), Labour are't exactly popular with Uni staff.

    I write this, whilst in the constituency.
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    AJKAJK Posts: 20
    If we assume LDs get 30, others 28, and Labour minimum % share of vote 33%, what sort of vote share do the Tories need to get a majority? Is it possible? Is the Labour 'floor' 30, 31, 32, 33%??
    Looks like a tall order for the Tories.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,143

    So the Lib Dems is predicted to retain 10 out of their 11 Scottish seats, losing just East Dumbartonshire to Labour.

    In the Scottish Parliament elections of 2011, they also started with 11 seats, and retained just 2 of them, Orkney and Shetland respectively. And those two together combine into just 1 UK parliamentary constituency.

    In the absence of any sign of any Lib Dem revival whatsoever in Scotland, that prediction is nonsense.

    Carmichael will be the only Scottish Lib Dem MP not sweating on election night.
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    Hugh said:

    losing 12 points would give them negative votes in 30 Scottish seats

    Lol. This brings us back to parallel universes.

    If anyone can warp the laws of nature and actually poll negative votes it's the Lib Dems!

    Wait till you see the bar chart.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,143
    DavidL said:

    Personally I think that Mr Dale has failed to appreciate the extent of the collapse of Lib Dem support in Scotland. I will be surprised if they hold more than 2 of of Gordon, Berwickshire, North East Fife, West Aberdeenshire, Argyll and Edinburgh West. I fear for Danny Alexander too although he is a Lib Dem I would certainly vote for.

    On the other hand I suspect he is being just a little optimistic about possible tory gains in England. If the tory vote is going down and UKIP is going up I fear a number of these targets will slip away.

    One thing this brings home is that the window for a working coalition in the next Parliament is likely to be considerably smaller than it is in this one.

    Do we have any Scottish Lib Dem posters here btw ?
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    There's a few places I can see the Lib Dems making gains.

    Oxford West and Abingdon, and Montgomeryshire.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Lennon said:

    Interesting from Iain, and fair play on him for putting it up early and being prepared to be shot at. The difficulty is that whilst they generally sound plausible, I suspect that of the 'possibles' only (say) 50% will actually go - so that 35 becomes 40-45 retained + 3 or so gains for a Net loss of (about) 10. All above assumes IndyRef in Scotland goes No of course.

    In terms of LD gains - OxWandAb is a reasonable potential.

    I think Iain Dale has given it a decent stab and perhaps just come out a wee bit shy.

    However what is probable is that a few likely holds will go and a few likely losses will be held and an improbable gain hovered up.

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    LennonLennon Posts: 1,753
    Other potential LD Gains from Con - Truro and Falmouth, Newton Abbot (both likely to have large UKIP voting blocs I would imagine). As a random outlier - I would add Hereford and Herefordshire South.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,957
    Pulpstar said:

    So the Lib Dems is predicted to retain 10 out of their 11 Scottish seats, losing just East Dumbartonshire to Labour.

    In the Scottish Parliament elections of 2011, they also started with 11 seats, and retained just 2 of them, Orkney and Shetland respectively. And those two together combine into just 1 UK parliamentary constituency.

    In the absence of any sign of any Lib Dem revival whatsoever in Scotland, that prediction is nonsense.

    Carmichael will be the only Scottish Lib Dem MP not sweating on election night.
    Charlie and Thurso should be fine. Other than that I agree.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,894

    Gildas said:

    This photo from Dawlish is incredible.

    twitter.com/sophiepierce/status/430998381398614016/photo/1

    That's the Cornish economy fecked. I've travelled that line many times. It's the only railway into the county.

    It looks from the BBC photos as is one of those houses is right at the edge as well - that'll probably have to be demolished, as may some of its neighbours. Looking at Google Maps, the houses in the background may be safe, but they're also cut off - that's the only road in.

    A real mess.
    And no airports either between Exeter and Newquay if I recall rightly - Plymouth closed two years or so ago.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,143
    Fair play for Mr Dale to stick his head over the parapet though.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,894
    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    So the Lib Dems is predicted to retain 10 out of their 11 Scottish seats, losing just East Dumbartonshire to Labour.

    In the Scottish Parliament elections of 2011, they also started with 11 seats, and retained just 2 of them, Orkney and Shetland respectively. And those two together combine into just 1 UK parliamentary constituency.

    In the absence of any sign of any Lib Dem revival whatsoever in Scotland, that prediction is nonsense.

    Carmichael will be the only Scottish Lib Dem MP not sweating on election night.
    Charlie and Thurso should be fine. Other than that I agree.
    Presumably you think so partly because they have been very quiet in the indy debates?

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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited February 2014
    Pulpstar said:

    So the Lib Dems is predicted to retain 10 out of their 11 Scottish seats, losing just East Dumbartonshire to Labour.

    In the Scottish Parliament elections of 2011, they also started with 11 seats, and retained just 2 of them, Orkney and Shetland respectively. And those two together combine into just 1 UK parliamentary constituency.

    In the absence of any sign of any Lib Dem revival whatsoever in Scotland, that prediction is nonsense.

    Carmichael will be the only Scottish Lib Dem MP not sweating on election night.
    Wait till you see how the lib dems treat Clegg's minions when they're not hiding behind their boss.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,957
    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Personally I think that Mr Dale has failed to appreciate the extent of the collapse of Lib Dem support in Scotland. I will be surprised if they hold more than 2 of of Gordon, Berwickshire, North East Fife, West Aberdeenshire, Argyll and Edinburgh West. I fear for Danny Alexander too although he is a Lib Dem I would certainly vote for.

    On the other hand I suspect he is being just a little optimistic about possible tory gains in England. If the tory vote is going down and UKIP is going up I fear a number of these targets will slip away.

    One thing this brings home is that the window for a working coalition in the next Parliament is likely to be considerably smaller than it is in this one.

    Do we have any Scottish Lib Dem posters here btw ?
    A pal of mine who used to be a Lib Dem Councillor used to post under the name of A view from the Lothians or something like that but I have not seen him on for a long time. None come immediately to mind.

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    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Personally I think that Mr Dale has failed to appreciate the extent of the collapse of Lib Dem support in Scotland. I will be surprised if they hold more than 2 of of Gordon, Berwickshire, North East Fife, West Aberdeenshire, Argyll and Edinburgh West. I fear for Danny Alexander too although he is a Lib Dem I would certainly vote for.

    On the other hand I suspect he is being just a little optimistic about possible tory gains in England. If the tory vote is going down and UKIP is going up I fear a number of these targets will slip away.

    One thing this brings home is that the window for a working coalition in the next Parliament is likely to be considerably smaller than it is in this one.

    Do we have any Scottish Lib Dem posters here btw ?
    No Offence Alan is a Scottish Lib Dem.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,143
    Some things that may save Danny though...

    A split tactical vote (Its not clear who is best placed to challenge) and I'd guess the Conservatives will pedal very very softly in his constituency !
    He may survive but its going to be bloody close on the night.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    From previous thread., re HurstLlama

    Number theorists do study alternate number systems, such as the Gaussian integers (ones of the form a+bi, a and b both conventional integers). In that system, five isn't prime, because 5=(2+i)(2-i). More generally, we can look at fields of polynomials with integer coefficients, modulo any chosen polynomial.

    However, it can be shown any integer-like system, in a certain technical sense, contains the standard integers. Thus, none of them can have four be prime unless mathematics is internally inconsistent.

    At this point, we run into the Godel incompleteness theorems. Maths can't prove itself consistent. However, since if it isn't, all logic collapses, and your bank balance is simultaneously £6,819, -£125,000*i, and an annoyed orange dragon carved from pure diamond, we may as well assume maths is consistent. It's the only way we'll ever get anywhere sane.


    Top post, Mr. Sheffield! Most enjoyable.

    Of course, Godel himself ended up barking mad and was a believer in the after-life, which sort of takes us back to where the original discussion began.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,957
    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    So the Lib Dems is predicted to retain 10 out of their 11 Scottish seats, losing just East Dumbartonshire to Labour.

    In the Scottish Parliament elections of 2011, they also started with 11 seats, and retained just 2 of them, Orkney and Shetland respectively. And those two together combine into just 1 UK parliamentary constituency.

    In the absence of any sign of any Lib Dem revival whatsoever in Scotland, that prediction is nonsense.

    Carmichael will be the only Scottish Lib Dem MP not sweating on election night.
    Charlie and Thurso should be fine. Other than that I agree.
    Presumably you think so partly because they have been very quiet in the indy debates?

    Partly, but mainly because their constituencies are an amazingly long way from anywhere. The locals support their own up there and are less interested in what the rest of the country thinks. I have done court cases up in Wick and Thurso. When you get to Inverness you are about half way there from the Scottish central belt. Scotland is huge and very, very empty.

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,376
    edited February 2014
    Pulpstar said:

    Some things that may save Danny though...

    A split tactical vote (Its not clear who is best placed to challenge) and I'd guess the Conservatives will pedal very very softly in his constituency !
    He may survive but its going to be bloody close on the night.

    In the predecessor seat, in 1992, the Lib Dems won the seat with 26% of the vote.

    Lab polled 25.1%

    SNP 24.7%

    Con 22.6%

    http://tinyurl.com/prztwy8
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Pulpstar said:

    and I'd guess the Conservatives will pedal very very softly in his constituency !

    As reward for being so nice to Cammie? No. Content to pat him on the head yes. Grateful enough to stop being scottish tories? Don't think so.
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    Pulpstar said:

    Some things that may save Danny though...

    A split tactical vote (Its not clear who is best placed to challenge) and I'd guess the Conservatives will pedal very very softly in his constituency !
    He may survive but its going to be bloody close on the night.

    He also has a decent majority, if the Scots ditch a politician with as much class as Danny, even more case for them going it alone. Why can't we English have a say as well, personally I would love to see the back of them, let the North East of England go with them.
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    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Personally I think that Mr Dale has failed to appreciate the extent of the collapse of Lib Dem support in Scotland. I will be surprised if they hold more than 2 of of Gordon, Berwickshire, North East Fife, West Aberdeenshire, Argyll and Edinburgh West. I fear for Danny Alexander too although he is a Lib Dem I would certainly vote for.

    On the other hand I suspect he is being just a little optimistic about possible tory gains in England. If the tory vote is going down and UKIP is going up I fear a number of these targets will slip away.

    One thing this brings home is that the window for a working coalition in the next Parliament is likely to be considerably smaller than it is in this one.

    Do we have any Scottish Lib Dem posters here btw ?
    No Offence Alan is a Scottish Lib Dem.
    And a 'Yes' voter I seem to recall.
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    macisback said:

    He also has a decent majority, if the Scots ditch a politician with as much class as Danny, even more case for them going it alone. Why can't we English have a say as well, personally I would love to see the back of them, let the North East of England go with them.

    Yet another PB 'Better Together' spokesman in the making.

    *chortle*
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    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Personally I think that Mr Dale has failed to appreciate the extent of the collapse of Lib Dem support in Scotland. I will be surprised if they hold more than 2 of of Gordon, Berwickshire, North East Fife, West Aberdeenshire, Argyll and Edinburgh West. I fear for Danny Alexander too although he is a Lib Dem I would certainly vote for.

    On the other hand I suspect he is being just a little optimistic about possible tory gains in England. If the tory vote is going down and UKIP is going up I fear a number of these targets will slip away.

    One thing this brings home is that the window for a working coalition in the next Parliament is likely to be considerably smaller than it is in this one.

    Do we have any Scottish Lib Dem posters here btw ?
    No Offence Alan is a Scottish Lib Dem.
    And a 'Yes' voter I seem to recall.
    Yes he is.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,957
    Mick_Pork said:

    Pulpstar said:

    and I'd guess the Conservatives will pedal very very softly in his constituency !

    As reward for being so nice to Cammie? No. Content to pat him on the head yes. Grateful enough to stop being scottish tories? Don't think so.
    The zimmers will indeed be pounding the streets but tory supporters think for themselves. As I said, if I lived in his constituency I would vote for him in a heart beat. I suspect quite a number of tories will think the same.

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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    All four Highland and Islands seats are safe.

    Berwickshire & Roxburgh, NE Fife and West Aberdeenshire likely holds.

    Argyll, Edinburgh West, Gordon, East Dunbartonshire likely lost.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    I'm surprised at how many of these predictions I agree with though naturally we're bound to focus on the ones we disagree with. For me the prediction that Simon Hughes is a dead cert hold is unnecessarily strong. He may well hold on (he's survived lots of times before) but the GLA elections in 2012 were gruesome in his constituency. A more recent local by-election was much better than that but still down on the past. I think Simon's own name on the ballot paper still carries a very strong bonus in this constituency but it will be an almighty battle for him to survive against the tsunami that will wash over the Lib Dems in constituencies like this. May will obviously tell us a lot more.
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    DavidL said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    Pulpstar said:

    and I'd guess the Conservatives will pedal very very softly in his constituency !

    As reward for being so nice to Cammie? No. Content to pat him on the head yes. Grateful enough to stop being scottish tories? Don't think so.
    The zimmers will indeed be pounding the streets but tory supporters think for themselves. As I said, if I lived in his constituency I would vote for him in a heart beat. I suspect quite a number of tories will think the same.

    I'll await the massed hordes of scottish tories defecting to the lib dems with somewhat less than bated breath myself.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited February 2014



    Sheffield Hallam is a seat which is public-sector-worker-dominated, has lots of students and liberal university staff, is suburban, and northern.

    All types of demographics which are likely to punish the Lib Dems heavily in 2015.

    There speaks someone who has never been to Sheffield Hallam.

    1) There are very few university students living in Sheffield Hallam, they live in neighbouring constituencies.

    2) It isn't very Northern in many respects, insofar as up to 2008, it was the second most wealthiest/prosperous constituency in the country. IIRC it is now 4th, but the prospertity and wealth have increased since 2008, but have been overtaken by a few Southern Seats

    3) Considering the way Labour u-turned over the uni fees vote (when in Govt they said they would abide by the reports conclusions), Labour are't exactly popular with Uni staff.

    I write this, whilst in the constituency.

    1) OK, I accept that.

    2) A Northern seat isn't even so much about wealth anymore -- as I said in a thread the other day, there's been a growing feeling among even middle-class northerners (especially those who aren't in rural areas) over the past 20 years or so that the Tories don't like them and single out the north for bad treatment. Sheffield Council getting heavy cuts will have furthered this impression that constituency

    3) I think you made the point a while ago that tuition fees weren't actually particularly unpopular among university staff, and I would generally agree with that - BUT that's NOT the reason why university academics in my experience (generally, not in Hallam in particular) are swinging away from the Lib Dems. The main reason is the economic policies of the government and how hard they've been on the poor, which the "bleeding-heart" Guardianistas who dominate university ranks disapprove of. Plus, Iraq was one of the main reasons this group went away from Labour in the first place, and Labour have now "repented" for that by electing a leader who was (or claims he was) against the war, and they voted against Syria.

    I'm also aware that the Lib Dems have held up reasonably well in the Hallam wards in local elections, but I personally am pretty much discounting those. I'm well aware that there's a good chance that I'll be wrong, and frankly I'm overegging my certainty a bit just for the sake of having a good debate! But I do genuinely think Labour have atleast a good 30% chance of taking it.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,670
    edited February 2014
    DavidL said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    Pulpstar said:

    and I'd guess the Conservatives will pedal very very softly in his constituency !

    As reward for being so nice to Cammie? No. Content to pat him on the head yes. Grateful enough to stop being scottish tories? Don't think so.
    The zimmers will indeed be pounding the streets but tory supporters think for themselves. As I said, if I lived in his constituency I would vote for him in a heart beat. I suspect quite a number of tories will think the same.

    But surely you can see that Danny being a candidate that Tories (normally notoriously unwilling to vote tactically) would vote for 'in a heart beat' may be a contra indicator for how previous LD voters might swing?
    As it happens my uncle lives in DA's constituency, is an LD member and has campaigned on his behalf; I must check out the LD lie of the land.
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    Carnyx said:

    Gildas said:

    This photo from Dawlish is incredible.

    twitter.com/sophiepierce/status/430998381398614016/photo/1

    That's the Cornish economy fecked. I've travelled that line many times. It's the only railway into the county.

    It looks from the BBC photos as is one of those houses is right at the edge as well - that'll probably have to be demolished, as may some of its neighbours. Looking at Google Maps, the houses in the background may be safe, but they're also cut off - that's the only road in.

    A real mess.
    And no airports either between Exeter and Newquay if I recall rightly - Plymouth closed two years or so ago.
    The roads aren't bad though, and I'm pretty sure a large majority of freight and people travels by road.

    I think the Coalition announced the A30 would be dualled in the places where it isn't already.

    Finally, one of the strongest parts of the Cornish economy is tourism, and one hopes they'll have the train line up and running in the spring, when the storms have died down.

    Keep calm, eh?
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited February 2014
    Just add to my Sheffield Hallam essay -- there's also the "ground war" aspect, in that there's going to be an entire army of hungry Labour councillors and activists from all over Sheffield who will be happy to focus their fire on Hallam since all the other Sheffield seats will be safe for Labour. Simultaneously, the Lib Dems' "army" has been heavily depleted by their hammerings in most of Sheffield (though, as I say, I accept that hasn't happened in the Hallam wards) and indeed all over much of the general region. That ground war aspect could potentially account for an extra 3-5% on Labour's voteshare imo, which could nudge them over the line.
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    Danny565 said:



    Sheffield Hallam is a seat which is public-sector-worker-dominated, has lots of students and liberal university staff, is suburban, and northern.

    All types of demographics which are likely to punish the Lib Dems heavily in 2015.

    There speaks someone who has never been to Sheffield Hallam.

    1) There are very few university students living in Sheffield Hallam, they live in neighbouring constituencies.

    2) It isn't very Northern in many respects, insofar as up to 2008, it was the second most wealthiest/prosperous constituency in the country. IIRC it is now 4th, but the prospertity and wealth have increased since 2008, but have been overtaken by a few Southern Seats

    3) Considering the way Labour u-turned over the uni fees vote (when in Govt they said they would abide by the reports conclusions), Labour are't exactly popular with Uni staff.

    I write this, whilst in the constituency.

    1) OK, I accept that.

    2) A Northern seat isn't even so much about wealth anymore -- as I said in a thread the other day, there's been a growing feeling among even middle-class northerners (especially those who aren't in rural areas) over the past 20 years or so that the Tories don't like them and single out the north for bad treatment. Sheffield Council getting heavy cuts will have furthered this impression that constituency

    3) I think you made the point a while ago that tuition fees weren't actually particularly unpopular among university staff, and I would generally agree with that - BUT that's NOT the reason why university academics in my experience (generally, not in Hallam in particular) are swinging away from the Lib Dems. The main reason is the economic policies of the government and how hard they've been on the poor, which the "bleeding-heart" Guardianistas who dominate university ranks disapprove of. Plus, Iraq was one of the main reasons this group went away from Labour in the first place, and Labour have now "repented" for that by electing a leader who was (or claims he was) against the war, and they voted against Syria.

    I'm also aware that the Lib Dems have held up reasonably well in the Hallam wards in local elections, but I personally am pretty much discounting those. I'm well aware that there's a good chance that I'll be wrong, and frankly I'm overegging my certainty a bit just for the sake of having a good debate! But I do genuinely think Labour have atleast a good 30% chance of taking it.
    Part 2) That ignores the improvements the Tories are making in the rest of South Yorkshire, there's a few seats nearby, with the right candidates and effort, that The Tories could take in 2020.

    Part 3) Hallam went Lib Dem long before Iraq. Additionally, in 2005, the Labour share of the vote went up, so there wasn't much of an Iraq effect in Sheffield Hallam, quite the opposite.
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    Danny565 said:

    Just add to my Sheffield Hallam essay -- there's also the "ground war" aspect, in that there's going to be an entire army of hungry Labour councillors and activists from all over Sheffield who will be happy to focus their fire on Hallam since all the other Sheffield seats will be safe for Labour. Simultaneously, the Lib Dems' "army" has been heavily depleted by their hammerings in most of Sheffield (though, as I say, I accept that hasn't happened in the Hallam wards) and indeed all over much of the general region. That ground war aspect could potentially account for an extra 3-5% on Labour's voteshare imo, which would nudge them over the line.

    They focussed their fire in 2011 and particularly in the Fullwood by-election last year, urging the people of Sheffield Hallam to send Nick Clegg a message.

    They did send him a message, the Lib Dems held the council seats comfortably, and with swings a lot less than seen elsewhere in the country, IIRC, in a couple of seats there was a swing to the Lib Dems.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,143
    Danny565 said:



    Sheffield Hallam is a seat which is public-sector-worker-dominated, has lots of students and liberal university staff, is suburban, and northern.

    All types of demographics which are likely to punish the Lib Dems heavily in 2015.

    There speaks someone who has never been to Sheffield Hallam.

    1) There are very few university students living in Sheffield Hallam, they live in neighbouring constituencies.

    2) It isn't very Northern in many respects, insofar as up to 2008, it was the second most wealthiest/prosperous constituency in the country. IIRC it is now 4th, but the prospertity and wealth have increased since 2008, but have been overtaken by a few Southern Seats

    3) Considering the way Labour u-turned over the uni fees vote (when in Govt they said they would abide by the reports conclusions), Labour are't exactly popular with Uni staff.

    I write this, whilst in the constituency.

    1) OK, I accept that.

    2) A Northern seat isn't even so much about wealth anymore -- as I said in a thread the other day, there's been a growing feeling among even middle-class northerners (especially those who aren't in rural areas) over the past 20 years or so that the Tories don't like them and single out the north for bad treatment. Sheffield Council getting heavy cuts will have furthered this impression that constituency

    3) I think you made the point a while ago that tuition fees weren't actually particularly unpopular among university staff, and I would generally agree with that - BUT that's NOT the reason why university academics in my experience (generally, not in Hallam in particular) are swinging away from the Lib Dems. The main reason is the economic policies of the government and how hard they've been on the poor, which the "bleeding-heart" Guardianistas who dominate university ranks disapprove of. Plus, Iraq was one of the main reasons this group went away from Labour in the first place, and Labour have now "repented" for that by electing a leader who was (or claims he was) against the war, and they voted against Syria.

    I'm also aware that the Lib Dems have held up reasonably well in the Hallam wards in local elections, but I personally am pretty much discounting those. I'm well aware that there's a good chance that I'll be wrong, and frankly I'm overegging my certainty a bit just for the sake of having a good debate! But I do genuinely think Labour have atleast a good 30% chance of taking it.
    5-1 available for Labour to take Hallam. If you think its a 30% chance then that makes 5-1 a very very good bet.
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    Danny565 said:



    Sheffield Hallam is a seat which is public-sector-worker-dominated, has lots of students and liberal university staff, is suburban, and northern.

    All types of demographics which are likely to punish the Lib Dems heavily in 2015.

    There speaks someone who has never been to Sheffield Hallam.

    1) There are very few university students living in Sheffield Hallam, they live in neighbouring constituencies.

    2) It isn't very Northern in many respects, insofar as up to 2008, it was the second most wealthiest/prosperous constituency in the country. IIRC it is now 4th, but the prospertity and wealth have increased since 2008, but have been overtaken by a few Southern Seats

    3) Considering the way Labour u-turned over the uni fees vote (when in Govt they said they would abide by the reports conclusions), Labour are't exactly popular with Uni staff.

    I write this, whilst in the constituency.

    1) OK, I accept that.

    2) A Northern seat isn't even so much about wealth anymore -- as I said in a thread the other day, there's been a growing feeling among even middle-class northerners (especially those who aren't in rural areas) over the past 20 years or so that the Tories don't like them and single out the north for bad treatment. Sheffield Council getting heavy cuts will have furthered this impression that constituency

    3) I think you made the point a while ago that tuition fees weren't actually particularly unpopular among university staff, and I would generally agree with that - BUT that's NOT the reason why university academics in my experience (generally, not in Hallam in particular) are swinging away from the Lib Dems. The main reason is the economic policies of the government and how hard they've been on the poor, which the "bleeding-heart" Guardianistas who dominate university ranks disapprove of. Plus, Iraq was one of the main reasons this group went away from Labour in the first place, and Labour have now "repented" for that by electing a leader who was (or claims he was) against the war, and they voted against Syria.

    I'm also aware that the Lib Dems have held up reasonably well in the Hallam wards in local elections, but I personally am pretty much discounting those. I'm well aware that there's a good chance that I'll be wrong, and frankly I'm overegging my certainty a bit just for the sake of having a good debate! But I do genuinely think Labour have atleast a good 30% chance of taking it.
    Labour have zero chance, have you ever been there. The Tories have no orginisation in Sheffield, Clegg will win no doubt about that.

    As for Sheffield council, with their record it would be foolish to give them more than the absolute minimum.
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,131
    I've had enough circular arguments with TSE about Hallam not to go there again but I'm of the view that Labour won't win there before 2020. If there were another 5 years of Tory/LD coalition, maybe. I also think there is a flaw in this argument about LDs doing well in local by elections where they have an MP. The people who vote LD are often the sort who are quite capable of distinguishing between local government and what is going on nationally. I'm not convinced that because they're holding council seats that will necessarily translate into MPs. I'll go with about 35 MPs next time.

    What will that mean? Well let's say there are 9 SNP plus Plaid and 18 Northern Ireland MPs. Added to the LD MPs that gives us 62. So that will mean 588 Tory + Labour MPs. A government would need 326 MPs for a majority. This would be complicated by the no show of Sinn Fein MPs. Nonetheless a government would probably need 330 MPs to be stable. That means that Tory or Lab need 295 MPs if we assume the LDs are reduced to 35. However they can only have 588 between them. So it isn't possible for both parties to get to 295. This surely puts to bed the idea that the Lib Dems will be able to choose their coalitio partners. They will only be able to go with the Party that has the most MPs.

    And then of the course, the elephant in the room, Scottish independence.........

    What would happen in the event of a Yes vote? Hard to say but I reckon the SNP could make big gains at a Westminster election and they swept the board in 2011. Scots would be looking for MPs that would help them negotiate the best possible deal on independence. So they might get 35 MPs at least. And perhaps wipe the Lib Dems out north of the border? But the idea of them going into a Westminster coalition is unthinkable, surely? So let us reduce the number of Lib Dem MPs to 30 and now we have a Labour Tory total of 564. So unless Lab/Tory can get to 295 - which would be 26 more than the other we could be facing carnage. Here's an election result post a Yes vote:

    Tory - 284
    Labour - 280
    SNP - 35
    Lib Dem - 30
    DUP - 8
    Other NI - 10
    Plaid - 3

    Expect carnage, absolute carnage. The only viable solution might be a grand coalition with Ed or Dave as PM and the other Deputy whilst we negotiate Scotlan'ds leaving the Union. The key is to look at the performance of the SNP relative to the Lib Dems. If Salmond does well/Clegg badly after a Yes vote it could get very messy indeed.
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    LennonLennon Posts: 1,753
    Neil said:

    I'm surprised at how many of these predictions I agree with though naturally we're bound to focus on the ones we disagree with. For me the prediction that Simon Hughes is a dead cert hold is unnecessarily strong. He may well hold on (he's survived lots of times before) but the GLA elections in 2012 were gruesome in his constituency. A more recent local by-election was much better than that but still down on the past. I think Simon's own name on the ballot paper still carries a very strong bonus in this constituency but it will be an almighty battle for him to survive against the tsunami that will wash over the Lib Dems in constituencies like this. May will obviously tell us a lot more.

    I too think that Simon Hughes is an interesting one - Labour have the advantage that all the surrounding South London seats are safe, and so the activists can go all out against Hughes in terms of the ground war. Put it this way - if Hughes doesn't stand - it's all out and everything to play for - is his name worth that much that it's a 'certainty'?
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited February 2014
    Behold!

    Calamity Clegg's latest master strategy for the EU elections.

    He's trying to turn it into a mini-referendum and vote on being IN or OUT of Europe.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DvKc_5GqX2I&feature=youtu.be

    I'm fairly certainly that won't be the route Cammie goes down unless he wants his backbenchers to run about like headless chickens even more than usual.

    A 'brave' choice indeed for Clegg to accuse others of not having the courage of their convictions. The voters should love that.

    I also seem to recall the last time Clegg became the public face of a referendum choice it didn't turn out so well for him or the lib dems.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The first thing I read is that Iain Dale is predicting an easy LD hold in Inverness, which I'm afraid doesn't fill me with confidence for the rest of his forecasts.
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    DavidL said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    Pulpstar said:

    and I'd guess the Conservatives will pedal very very softly in his constituency !

    As reward for being so nice to Cammie? No. Content to pat him on the head yes. Grateful enough to stop being scottish tories? Don't think so.
    The zimmers will indeed be pounding the streets but tory supporters think for themselves. As I said, if I lived in his constituency I would vote for him in a heart beat. I suspect quite a number of tories will think the same.

    But surely you can see that Danny being a candidate that Tories (normally notoriously unwilling to vote tactically) would vote for 'in a heart beat' may be a contra indicator for how previous LD voters might swing?
    As it happens my uncle lives in DA's constituency, is an LD member and has campaigned on his behalf; I must check out the LD lie of the land.
    If its not too much hassle, can you ask him, who he thinks will be the best placed party to be the anti-Danny Alexander candidate.

    I can see persuasive arguments for both Lab and the SNP.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2014
    Workers at Faslane naval nuclear base to strike over pay.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Just before the last general election Iain Dale went through every constituency, and came up with 327 Conservative seats.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Lennon said:

    Put it this way - if Hughes doesn't stand - it's all out and everything to play for - is his name worth that much that it's a 'certainty'?

    If Hughes didnt stand this would be a dead cert Labour gain based on 2012 results here. He does have a very good personal vote though and that is what gives him a chance. The locals in May will tell us how much of a chance.
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    Neil said:

    Lennon said:

    Put it this way - if Hughes doesn't stand - it's all out and everything to play for - is his name worth that much that it's a 'certainty'?

    If Hughes didnt stand this would be a dead cert Labour gain based on 2012 results here. He does have a very good personal vote though and that is what gives him a chance. The locals in May will tell us how much of a chance.
    Will him being a Minister be a help or a hindrance to him in 2015?
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    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    Iain Dale's 30-35 figure is in line with the latest ARSE general election prediction of 35 seats for the LibDems that was published yesterday morning.

    What is the methodology for your poll Jack? I have now asked this question a number of times without a single sensible response. Am I to assume you just pull it out of your ARSE?
    My single sensible response to you is never mind the methodology feel the profits !!

    So you make it up then! As I thought :)
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    DavidL said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    Pulpstar said:

    and I'd guess the Conservatives will pedal very very softly in his constituency !

    As reward for being so nice to Cammie? No. Content to pat him on the head yes. Grateful enough to stop being scottish tories? Don't think so.
    The zimmers will indeed be pounding the streets but tory supporters think for themselves. As I said, if I lived in his constituency I would vote for him in a heart beat. I suspect quite a number of tories will think the same.

    But surely you can see that Danny being a candidate that Tories (normally notoriously unwilling to vote tactically) would vote for 'in a heart beat' may be a contra indicator for how previous LD voters might swing?
    As it happens my uncle lives in DA's constituency, is an LD member and has campaigned on his behalf; I must check out the LD lie of the land.
    If its not too much hassle, can you ask him, who he thinks will be the best placed party to be the anti-Danny Alexander candidate.

    I can see persuasive arguments for both Lab and the SNP.
    I'll try. Our last 'political' conversation started off with 'That fat crook who's trying to break up our country'; it didn't end well.


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    stodgestodge Posts: 13,104
    Afternoon all :)

    Interesting piece from Iain with whom I once shared a History seminar in the early 80s - nowhere as vocal then as he is now. He also has "form" standing against an LD so his views are to be respected.

    I can't comment on the bulk of his predictions because I don't have specific local knowledge. One area I would comment on is London and specifically the two seats in the Borough of Sutton. Tom Brake, who once had coffee in my flat, may not be everyone's idea of the charismatic politician but he was a hard-working councillor and then MP (ditto Paul Burstow apart from the coffee).

    This year's Borough elections will be hugely informative as I've argued many times on this forum and the London results will tell us all we need to know (and are far more significant than the Euro elections) about the prospects for the three main parties (and UKIP too).

    On that subject, I'm enjoying my day off at Stodge Towers and the doorbell goes - normally on Wednesday it's God calling but today it was a Conservative canvasser (one of the likely candidates who called himself a Tory throughout). Very poor canvasser to be honest - accused Labour voters of "voting blindly". I pointed out that with Labour polling 70% in the Ward in 2010, the opticians would be doing very good business if he was right.

    Labour won all 60 seats in Newham last time - it's hard to think they won't do the same this time. Perhaps Alan Craig or one of his cohorts will sneak back in Canning Town or a Respect candidate might win in Green Street East or the Tories may yet win Royal Docks but all these look long shots to me.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Dale reckons Ed Davey has few worries in Kingston/Surbiton.

    Not sure about that myself.
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    isam said:

    @MickPork will have substantiated the nonsense he is pretending to believe regarding me and the Batten charter last night??

    You could actually try spelling out whatever this imagined slight is before crying and whining about it.

    You attacked the guardian piece on Batten and you weren't happy with the Mail piece either just like I said.v Anyone can check the threads to see that's the case. Anyone apart from you it would seem.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    Iain Dale's 30-35 figure is in line with the latest ARSE general election prediction of 35 seats for the LibDems that was published yesterday morning.

    What is the methodology for your poll Jack? I have now asked this question a number of times without a single sensible response. Am I to assume you just pull it out of your ARSE?
    My single sensible response to you is never mind the methodology feel the profits !!

    So you make it up then! As I thought :)
    It would certainly be so much easier .... I might try it !!

    Lab gain Sheffield Hallam ..... How am I doing ?!?

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,376
    edited February 2014

    DavidL said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    Pulpstar said:

    and I'd guess the Conservatives will pedal very very softly in his constituency !

    As reward for being so nice to Cammie? No. Content to pat him on the head yes. Grateful enough to stop being scottish tories? Don't think so.
    The zimmers will indeed be pounding the streets but tory supporters think for themselves. As I said, if I lived in his constituency I would vote for him in a heart beat. I suspect quite a number of tories will think the same.

    But surely you can see that Danny being a candidate that Tories (normally notoriously unwilling to vote tactically) would vote for 'in a heart beat' may be a contra indicator for how previous LD voters might swing?
    As it happens my uncle lives in DA's constituency, is an LD member and has campaigned on his behalf; I must check out the LD lie of the land.
    If its not too much hassle, can you ask him, who he thinks will be the best placed party to be the anti-Danny Alexander candidate.

    I can see persuasive arguments for both Lab and the SNP.
    I'll try. Our last 'political' conversation started off with 'That fat crook who's trying to break up our country'; it didn't end well.


    Aww bless.

    I'll be back in Edinburgh next month, where my mission is to find a non UKIP/SDL supporting Taxi Driver.

    They were interesting in how they foresaw the referendum turning out, when I was there last year.
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited February 2014
    Meanwhile Batten's fruitcakery is busy making allies and enemies.
    Tory MP says Ukip politician's call for Muslim code of conduct is frightening

    Robert Halfon compares Ukip MEP Gerard Batten's position to asking members of religion to wear yellow star

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/feb/05/tory-mp-ukip-muslim-code-conduct-frightening-halfon-batten?CMP=twt_gu

    Nick Griffin MEP ‏@nickgriffinmep 6h

    With their #Wythenshawe campaign derailed by Farage's pro-immigration gaffe, #Ukip using Batten to try to steal BNP's anti-Islamist clothes.
    Some tories quite happy to speak out unsurprisingly. Stealing the BNP's anti-islamist clothes? Not exactly what Farage needs any more of after May.
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    DavidL said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    Pulpstar said:

    and I'd guess the Conservatives will pedal very very softly in his constituency !

    As reward for being so nice to Cammie? No. Content to pat him on the head yes. Grateful enough to stop being scottish tories? Don't think so.
    The zimmers will indeed be pounding the streets but tory supporters think for themselves. As I said, if I lived in his constituency I would vote for him in a heart beat. I suspect quite a number of tories will think the same.

    But surely you can see that Danny being a candidate that Tories (normally notoriously unwilling to vote tactically) would vote for 'in a heart beat' may be a contra indicator for how previous LD voters might swing?
    As it happens my uncle lives in DA's constituency, is an LD member and has campaigned on his behalf; I must check out the LD lie of the land.
    If its not too much hassle, can you ask him, who he thinks will be the best placed party to be the anti-Danny Alexander candidate.

    I can see persuasive arguments for both Lab and the SNP.
    I'll try. Our last 'political' conversation started off with 'That fat crook who's trying to break up our country'; it didn't end well.


    Aww bless.

    I'll be back in Edinburgh next month, where my mission is to find a non UKIP/SDL supporting Taxi Driver.

    They were interesting in how they foresaw the referendum turning out, when I was there last year.
    They must be out there.

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/transport/scottish-independence-taxis-to-drive-yes-vote-1-3289688
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,131
    Cardiff Central - probable Lib Dem hold? I don't think so. If Dale has got the LDs holding seats like this and down only one in Scotland how has he managed to get them down to 30-35MPs? I think Peter Kellner's latest guesstimate was 6 LD to Tory gains.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @TSE

    I doubt many people have noticed that he's a minister.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,143
    @FrankBooth Overoptimistic on Conservative chances in the south...
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    AndyJS said:

    Workers at Faslane naval nuclear base to strike over pay.

    No workers at Faslane because no base in an independent Scotland.
This discussion has been closed.