Diesel purchased for £1.379 this morning. UK average £1.5651 according to the RAC...
That is really cheap, best I have seen up here so far is £149.9
Filled up with diesel near Dunoon at £1.319 on Monday. Petrol was £1.369. Local garage is still £1.569 for diesel. How can a 25p difference be justified?
Amazed that diesel was cheaper than petrol, usually at least 12p a litre or more higher
EXCLUSIVE Russian authorities controlling the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in southern Ukraine plan to evacuate some 3,100 staff; head of Ukrainian nuclear operator warns of danger of unsupervised infrastructure per @siobhan_ogrady Kostiantyn Khudov
I was a little concerned about Robert Fox talking about the dangers of a possible accident there. The only danger is of deliberate sabotage. I'm sure I read that months ago when it was in the news the only thing that could create a calamity would be a major explosion inside the plant. That wouldn't be an accident.
It seems like the Russians are in deep trouble in Bakhmut. After months of tiny advances from the Russian side, the ZSU seems to have pushed back hard, and the Russians are falling back in some disarray. It may be that the Ukrainians are within an ace of winning the Battle of Bakhmut. This is despite the fact that the much vaunted counter offensive has not yet begun in earnest. We here from over the border that there is a growing sense of dread in Russia. They fear, even expect, that the ZSU will be able to overwhelm Russian forces in several places and that morale is rock bottom.
I just hope its true, this war has been utterly horrific and if it leads to the fall of those responsible, there will be a deep sense of relief and satisfaction in Tallinn.
The other big story is the UK supplying long range missiles to Ukraine. Story in the American press that Biden is relieved as it means there won't be pressure on him to send ATACMS. I do find this all a bit confusing. If the Americans are wary of sending ATACMS why are they not trying to stop us sending our own ones?
It's a little far fetched but perhaps they see it as good psychology? Letting the Brits feel proud about taking the lead, facing Putin down etc.
Neither Russia or China take Britain seriously (and for good reason say the cynics). So if Britain sends Ukraine long-range missiles this can easily be dismissed: there won't be many of them, and they probably won't work.
Then the Americans can send their own later and the taboo has already been broken.
Storm Shadow, which is what the UK is probably sending, works and is considered a very good weapon.
If you spend about 5 minutes reading Russian propaganda, it seems the at the entire UK lives in their heads, rent free. This may/may not be the Sidney Reilly legacy. It is fairly amusing, though.
I'm sure Storm Shadow works very well, but will the Russians or Chinese be able to take it seriously when it comes from, "a small island no-one pays any attention to"?
EXCLUSIVE Russian authorities controlling the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in southern Ukraine plan to evacuate some 3,100 staff; head of Ukrainian nuclear operator warns of danger of unsupervised infrastructure per @siobhan_ogrady Kostiantyn Khudov
There is real panic in Russia. They are going to lose, but we are getting close to the point of maximum danger. We can only hope that the ZSU takes the station really quickly, before the Putinists do anything. After the last couple of days there is a growing sense of defeat in Moscow, and Minsk, I may add.
Going back to the delightful discussion of last night on the Carroll-Trump verdict (and following on for @darkage) Alan Dershowitz on the inconsistency of the verdict:
For those who mentioned that a major factor was that the jury could not prove rape but could sexual assault, note the following:
"On the main count that Trump raped E. Jean Carroll, the nine-person jury unanimously found that he did not. The plaintiff could not even satisfy its low burden of proof, namely proof beyond a preponderance of the evidence. In so finding, the jury apparently disbelieved at least part of the plaintiff’s testimony. She was very specific about being raped, not merely sexually abused or molested, as the jury did find.
It’s a strange verdict. The jury seems to have believed some of her testimony; namely that she had an encounter with Trump at Bergdorf Goodman in the mid-1990s, which Trump has adamantly denied, both in depositions and in public statements. He did not appear at trial either to testify or to sit in the courtroom, but his lawyer presented his denials to the jury.
It is also hard to reconcile the jury’s finding that he did not rape her with its finding that he maliciously defamed her by essentially saying that he did not rape her."
Is this yet another strand of the WITCHHUNT then iyo?
I thought MPs were protected against this when they speak in the Commons chamber?
Now everyone knows I'm not a Hancock fan but given Bridgen has already been found to have lied under oath by a high court judge I'm not sure he'll be an entirely reliable witness/plaintiff in any future litigations...
EXCLUSIVE Russian authorities controlling the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in southern Ukraine plan to evacuate some 3,100 staff; head of Ukrainian nuclear operator warns of danger of unsupervised infrastructure per @siobhan_ogrady Kostiantyn Khudov
There is real panic in Russia. They are going to lose, but we are getting close to the point of maximum danger. We can only hope that the ZSU takes the station really quickly, before the Putinists do anything. After the last couple of days there is a growing sense of defeat in Moscow, and Minsk, I may add.
The mood music strongly implies that the Ukranian offensive is rolling up Russian defenses. Lets hope that’s the case.
The Commission for the Standardization of Geographical Names of Poland recommended that everyone in the country switch to the new names of Kaliningrad and the Kaliningrad region. The Russian city will now be called Krulewiec on maps https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1656269707089936384
I look forward to Russia losing access to Kaliningrad altogether.
Going back to the delightful discussion of last night on the Carroll-Trump verdict (and following on for @darkage) Alan Dershowitz on the inconsistency of the verdict:
For those who mentioned that a major factor was that the jury could not prove rape but could sexual assault, note the following:
"On the main count that Trump raped E. Jean Carroll, the nine-person jury unanimously found that he did not. The plaintiff could not even satisfy its low burden of proof, namely proof beyond a preponderance of the evidence. In so finding, the jury apparently disbelieved at least part of the plaintiff’s testimony. She was very specific about being raped, not merely sexually abused or molested, as the jury did find.
It’s a strange verdict. The jury seems to have believed some of her testimony; namely that she had an encounter with Trump at Bergdorf Goodman in the mid-1990s, which Trump has adamantly denied, both in depositions and in public statements. He did not appear at trial either to testify or to sit in the courtroom, but his lawyer presented his denials to the jury.
It is also hard to reconcile the jury’s finding that he did not rape her with its finding that he maliciously defamed her by essentially saying that he did not rape her."
Don't be a obtuse. He called her a liar and a fantasist.
If the best you've got is Dershowitz, heaven help you.
Support for Welby from unlikely quarters this afternoon after his opposition to the Migration Bill '@ygceojennie This is why we need unelected priests and religious leaders in the House of Lords
Sometimes, the electorate lose their moral conscience to populism and need to be curtailed'
How stupid can anyone be?
A unelected legislator happens to say something someone agrees with, and the result is "This is why we need unelected legislators!"
Is the very simple concept of democracy really so hard for people to grasp?
For some on the liberal left democracy is fine provided the electorate vote the right way. However if they vote for Brexit, unwoke 'racist' policies, tax cuts over higher public spending etc then they need to be governed by their more educated appointed betters until they see the light
Well a healthy democracy does need an informed and thoughtful electorate.
EXCLUSIVE Russian authorities controlling the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in southern Ukraine plan to evacuate some 3,100 staff; head of Ukrainian nuclear operator warns of danger of unsupervised infrastructure per @siobhan_ogrady Kostiantyn Khudov
I was a little concerned about Robert Fox talking about the dangers of a possible accident there. The only danger is of deliberate sabotage. I'm sure I read that months ago when it was in the news the only thing that could create a calamity would be a major explosion inside the plant. That wouldn't be an accident.
There have been reports that the Russians have mined the interior of the plants. I could see a scenario where they booby-trap the place with tons of explosives and "evacuate" the staff before withdrawing, leaving Ukraine with a potential nuclear disaster on their hands to distract them from pressing forward an advance.
It seems like the Russians are in deep trouble in Bakhmut. After months of tiny advances from the Russian side, the ZSU seems to have pushed back hard, and the Russians are falling back in some disarray. It may be that the Ukrainians are within an ace of winning the Battle of Bakhmut. This is despite the fact that the much vaunted counter offensive has not yet begun in earnest. We here from over the border that there is a growing sense of dread in Russia. They fear, even expect, that the ZSU will be able to overwhelm Russian forces in several places and that morale is rock bottom.
I just hope its true, this war has been utterly horrific and if it leads to the fall of those responsible, there will be a deep sense of relief and satisfaction in Tallinn.
The other big story is the UK supplying long range missiles to Ukraine. Story in the American press that Biden is relieved as it means there won't be pressure on him to send ATACMS. I do find this all a bit confusing. If the Americans are wary of sending ATACMS why are they not trying to stop us sending our own ones?
It's a little far fetched but perhaps they see it as good psychology? Letting the Brits feel proud about taking the lead, facing Putin down etc.
Neither Russia or China take Britain seriously (and for good reason say the cynics). So if Britain sends Ukraine long-range missiles this can easily be dismissed: there won't be many of them, and they probably won't work.
Then the Americans can send their own later and the taboo has already been broken.
Storm Shadow, which is what the UK is probably sending, works and is considered a very good weapon.
If you spend about 5 minutes reading Russian propaganda, it seems the at the entire UK lives in their heads, rent free. This may/may not be the Sidney Reilly legacy. It is fairly amusing, though.
I'm sure Storm Shadow works very well, but will the Russians or Chinese be able to take it seriously when it comes from, "a small island no-one pays any attention to"?
If it evades the high end Russian SAM systems the way it is supposed to do, it will give the Chinese a bit of a moment. Since they er... followed Russian SAM development a fair bit.
The Commission for the Standardization of Geographical Names of Poland recommended that everyone in the country switch to the new names of Kaliningrad and the Kaliningrad region. The Russian city will now be called Krulewiec on maps https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1656269707089936384
What?? And not Koenigsberg??
Poland's opinion of Germany isn't much better than their opinion of Russia.
It is more or less a translation of Kings Hill, or Königsberg . In Lithuanian it is Karaliaučius, and you see both names on signs in LT. Even local Russians call the place "Kyonig".
Apparently named in honour of Ottokar II of Bohemia as a tribute to his support of the Teutonic knights in their wars with the pagans.
Going back to the delightful discussion of last night on the Carroll-Trump verdict (and following on for @darkage) Alan Dershowitz on the inconsistency of the verdict:
For those who mentioned that a major factor was that the jury could not prove rape but could sexual assault, note the following:
"On the main count that Trump raped E. Jean Carroll, the nine-person jury unanimously found that he did not. The plaintiff could not even satisfy its low burden of proof, namely proof beyond a preponderance of the evidence. In so finding, the jury apparently disbelieved at least part of the plaintiff’s testimony. She was very specific about being raped, not merely sexually abused or molested, as the jury did find.
It’s a strange verdict. The jury seems to have believed some of her testimony; namely that she had an encounter with Trump at Bergdorf Goodman in the mid-1990s, which Trump has adamantly denied, both in depositions and in public statements. He did not appear at trial either to testify or to sit in the courtroom, but his lawyer presented his denials to the jury.
It is also hard to reconcile the jury’s finding that he did not rape her with its finding that he maliciously defamed her by essentially saying that he did not rape her."
From the glance I had of the US law yesterday - rape means penis inside vagina.
Which I suspect is rather hard to prove without photographic evidence when sexual assault has been agreed upon.
Going back to the delightful discussion of last night on the Carroll-Trump verdict (and following on for @darkage) Alan Dershowitz on the inconsistency of the verdict:
For those who mentioned that a major factor was that the jury could not prove rape but could sexual assault, note the following:
"On the main count that Trump raped E. Jean Carroll, the nine-person jury unanimously found that he did not. The plaintiff could not even satisfy its low burden of proof, namely proof beyond a preponderance of the evidence. In so finding, the jury apparently disbelieved at least part of the plaintiff’s testimony. She was very specific about being raped, not merely sexually abused or molested, as the jury did find.
It’s a strange verdict. The jury seems to have believed some of her testimony; namely that she had an encounter with Trump at Bergdorf Goodman in the mid-1990s, which Trump has adamantly denied, both in depositions and in public statements. He did not appear at trial either to testify or to sit in the courtroom, but his lawyer presented his denials to the jury.
It is also hard to reconcile the jury’s finding that he did not rape her with its finding that he maliciously defamed her by essentially saying that he did not rape her."
I'm not sure why you think this is inconsistent. They only have to be 51% sure to be one side of the line and 49% sure to be the other side of the line so it can just be that extra little bit of doubt that it happened.
Lets look at some facts. Trump is a consistent liar and has been recorded that he believes women allow him to molest them. Under oath and since he has said he has never met her, yet there is a picture of him socialising with her and he was shown it and yet he still lies about it. That is mind boggling. When shown that picture he mistook her for his wife, even though his wife was also in the picture and even though she is apparently not his type. She looked very glamourous and he has a track record. He then said the picture was very blurry, which it isn't. It is a crystal clear picture. On top of all that refused to give evidence.
Nobody should find someone guilty beyond reasonable doubt based upon this, but it isn't unreasonable therefore to assume there is a greater than 50% chance he is lying. They probably thought he raped her but weren't confident to go that extra step.
EXCLUSIVE Russian authorities controlling the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in southern Ukraine plan to evacuate some 3,100 staff; head of Ukrainian nuclear operator warns of danger of unsupervised infrastructure per @siobhan_ogrady Kostiantyn Khudov
There is real panic in Russia. They are going to lose, but we are getting close to the point of maximum danger. We can only hope that the ZSU takes the station really quickly, before the Putinists do anything. After the last couple of days there is a growing sense of defeat in Moscow, and Minsk, I may add.
It seems like the Russians are in deep trouble in Bakhmut. After months of tiny advances from the Russian side, the ZSU seems to have pushed back hard, and the Russians are falling back in some disarray. It may be that the Ukrainians are within an ace of winning the Battle of Bakhmut. This is despite the fact that the much vaunted counter offensive has not yet begun in earnest. We here from over the border that there is a growing sense of dread in Russia. They fear, even expect, that the ZSU will be able to overwhelm Russian forces in several places and that morale is rock bottom.
I just hope its true, this war has been utterly horrific and if it leads to the fall of those responsible, there will be a deep sense of relief and satisfaction in Tallinn.
The other big story is the UK supplying long range missiles to Ukraine. Story in the American press that Biden is relieved as it means there won't be pressure on him to send ATACMS. I do find this all a bit confusing. If the Americans are wary of sending ATACMS why are they not trying to stop us sending our own ones?
It's a little far fetched but perhaps they see it as good psychology? Letting the Brits feel proud about taking the lead, facing Putin down etc.
Neither Russia or China take Britain seriously (and for good reason say the cynics). So if Britain sends Ukraine long-range missiles this can easily be dismissed: there won't be many of them, and they probably won't work.
Then the Americans can send their own later and the taboo has already been broken.
Storm Shadow, which is what the UK is probably sending, works and is considered a very good weapon.
If you spend about 5 minutes reading Russian propaganda, it seems the at the entire UK lives in their heads, rent free. This may/may not be the Sidney Reilly legacy. It is fairly amusing, though.
I'm sure Storm Shadow works very well, but will the Russians or Chinese be able to take it seriously when it comes from, "a small island no-one pays any attention to"?
If it evades the high end Russian SAM systems the way it is supposed to do, it will give the Chinese a bit of a moment. Since they er... followed Russian SAM development a fair bit.
followed => copied down to the last nut + bolt?
I know a manufacturer of military kit who, on inspecting the Chinese version that was being shown off at an airshow, discovered that it was an exact copy of their product; right down to the holes drilled in it for a jig that was no longer used to construct it. The Chinese had drilled them anyway. Presumably they had been ordered to make a copy, so that’s what they made...
It’s slightly weird, because they’re clearly capable of innovation: I guess copying Western / Russian products is cheaper in the short term & the hope is that your guys learn enough copying the first one that they can iterate on it themselves in the future.
I agree with some of the earlier comments about the bet Quincel discusses. I don't think the market available is the one he's discussing. I was going to place a bet at 5/4 with Starsports on Sunak leaving office in 2024. I think that would be an excellent bet at those prices - I'd say it should be more like 1/4, I agree with Quincel it's very unlikely, and desperate looking, for Sunak to hang on until Jan 2025. There would also have to be seismic political shifts over the next 18 months for Sunak to be able to remain PM after the election (i.e. holding Tory losses to less than 40 seats or so - or perhaps 50 or so if you price in the DUP as possible coalition partners).
So it's a strong assumption Sunak will lose the election - and also that the election will be no later than about October 2024 (my best guess for for the last date Sunak would be likely to call it).
However the bet available at StarSports (and others I tried to find) is instead on Sunak ceasing to be Tory leader, which is a very different proposition. Although it's possible Sunak would resign instantly if losing the election, it's far more likely he would remain as leader until the Tory leadership election process had run its course. This seems to take a good 3-4 months on the basis of the one last summer. So an October general election, leading to a Tory leadership election initiated a week or two later could still easily see Sunak as Tory leader until the new year.
A June/July election (also quite plausible, though less likely in my view) would see a new leader in place in 2024, so winning the bet. However another possibility which needs pricing in is Sunak NOT resigning, and deciding to stay in place as leader, even after losing the general election. Although not likely, it's certainly a possibility. The Tory ranks have been so denuded of talent that any candidates for replacement are likely to be even less popular with the public than Sunak, particularly if there is a hung parliament and Tory losses are seen to have been limited to less than feared by Sunak's relative popularity compared to the party as a whole.
So given all this, I don't see the 5/4 available as a particularly strong bet. Too much risk of Sunak still being in place during a late autumn/winter leadership contest. If someone knows of a 5/4 or 11/10 price available for Sunak ceasing to be Prime Minister in 2024 I'll definitely take that!
just to add briefly to my last comment, the only market that I could spot for Sunak leaving office as PM in 2024 was on Smarkets. There's not much liquidity on this, but a small amount available at 1.7, otherwise a bit more at 1.5. Still possibly a reasonable bet actually, but not as tempting as the 5/4 Quincel mentioned on Starsports (which is a very different bet, Sunak leaving as Tory Leader, as mentioned in my post below, unless I'm misreading it).
And remember, Omnisis who last polled the Labour lead at 21% also correctly called the local election NEV lead at 9%.
Didn’t Omnisis only poll those areas voting? In which case the total vote lead is what to compare the poll against, not the BBC/PNS lead of 9% (the Sky/NEV lead was just 7%, which everyone seems to gloss over).
Comments
He'd better knock on wood
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65531380
NEW THREAD
Which I suspect is rather hard to prove without photographic evidence when sexual assault has been agreed upon.
Lets look at some facts. Trump is a consistent liar and has been recorded that he believes women allow him to molest them. Under oath and since he has said he has never met her, yet there is a picture of him socialising with her and he was shown it and yet he still lies about it. That is mind boggling. When shown that picture he mistook her for his wife, even though his wife was also in the picture and even though she is apparently not his type. She looked very glamourous and he has a track record. He then said the picture was very blurry, which it isn't. It is a crystal clear picture. On top of all that refused to give evidence.
Nobody should find someone guilty beyond reasonable doubt based upon this, but it isn't unreasonable therefore to assume there is a greater than 50% chance he is lying. They probably thought he raped her but weren't confident to go that extra step.
Ukrainian Tank assault in Bakhmut.
Has Russia reached its culmination in Bakhmut?
I know a manufacturer of military kit who, on inspecting the Chinese version that was being shown off at an airshow, discovered that it was an exact copy of their product; right down to the holes drilled in it for a jig that was no longer used to construct it. The Chinese had drilled them anyway. Presumably they had been ordered to make a copy, so that’s what they made...
It’s slightly weird, because they’re clearly capable of innovation: I guess copying Western / Russian products is cheaper in the short term & the hope is that your guys learn enough copying the first one that they can iterate on it themselves in the future.
So it's a strong assumption Sunak will lose the election - and also that the election will be no later than about October 2024 (my best guess for for the last date Sunak would be likely to call it).
However the bet available at StarSports (and others I tried to find) is instead on Sunak ceasing to be Tory leader, which is a very different proposition. Although it's possible Sunak would resign instantly if losing the election, it's far more likely he would remain as leader until the Tory leadership election process had run its course. This seems to take a good 3-4 months on the basis of the one last summer. So an October general election, leading to a Tory leadership election initiated a week or two later could still easily see Sunak as Tory leader until the new year.
A June/July election (also quite plausible, though less likely in my view) would see a new leader in place in 2024, so winning the bet. However another possibility which needs pricing in is Sunak NOT resigning, and deciding to stay in place as leader, even after losing the general election. Although not likely, it's certainly a possibility. The Tory ranks have been so denuded of talent that any candidates for replacement are likely to be even less popular with the public than Sunak, particularly if there is a hung parliament and Tory losses are seen to have been limited to less than feared by Sunak's relative popularity compared to the party as a whole.
So given all this, I don't see the 5/4 available as a particularly strong bet. Too much risk of Sunak still being in place during a late autumn/winter leadership contest. If someone knows of a 5/4 or 11/10 price available for Sunak ceasing to be Prime Minister in 2024 I'll definitely take that!
I don’t know the total vote lead, does anyone?