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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Another poll finds the #IndyRef gap closing in Scotland but
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Another poll finds the #IndyRef gap closing in Scotland but whoever the client was has so far sat on it
We have no idea who paid for this and why the results have not been published even though it is now a week old. Normally data doesn’t go onto YouGov’s summary tracker tables until the poll has come out officially.
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Should give yes heart, methinks.
Edit: and for the first time in months, first.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN a scurrilous attempt at publishing a serious leak from my ARSE before the official publication on PB at 0900 hrs this morning.
The culprit has been apprehended and her FBR (Footwear Buying Rights) have been jolly well rescinded for at least, er .... quite some time .... amounting to .... well rather longer .... at least until .... er .... lunchtime today. Pretty stiff punishment I'm sure you'll agree.
Accordingly the latest 2015 ARSE General Election Projection will be published a full hour earlier at 0800hrs this morning.
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WIND (Whimsical Independent News Division) is an independent arm of the JNN (Jacobite News Network) publishing the contents of my ARSE (Anonymous Random Selection of Electors)
"If there was a referendum tomorrow on Scotland leaving the United Kingdom and becoming an Independent Country and this was the question, how would you vote?"
They get very upset when you mention that 'independence' = 'leaving the United Kingdom', blustering about 'the Union of the crowns' - which they forget about when they go on to claim that 'rUK will have to change its name when we separate.....leave.... get independence.
*chortles*
30 minutes
Since Nick seemed to me missing my comments on HS2, I thought I'd link to the Hansard Society's appraisal of the hybrid bill. In particular, a comment at the end that has little to do with HS2, but about the way select committees work: http://www.hansardsociety.org.uk/hs2-a-legislative-challenge-looms/
Overseas and EU student recruitment has been very strong in 2013/14. UK student recruitment has been more challenging.
Admittedly, we are a school with a particularly international focus but it is suggestive of the fact that high quality students continue to get visas to study in London and that simply looking at the high level numbers that most people on here do is insufficient to form a proper judgement.
10 minutes
My main recent experience with Scotland was an invitation to talk to Holyrood researchers at the Scottish Parliament last year. I had an invigorating time and came away believing that independence was on. If I was Scottish I'd vote YES.
There has been a movement to Yes in the polls but it's small and the pace is glacial. From the screen-cap, it's a swing of 2.5% in two months. Now ok, if that pace were maintained, it'd end up a close-run thing, but it's taking the base as almost the worst Yes share in the series, which going back to 2008 (with a slight change of question), has never had the independence option lower than 27% (27-55, Feb 2010).
The last polls from each year are:
Oct 2008: Yes 31 No 53
Nov 2009: Yes 29 No 57
Oct 2010: Yes 34 No 50
Oct 2011: Yes 34 No 52
Oct 2012: Yes 29 No 55
Nov 2013: Yes 31 No 55
To which we have to put the 33-52 in context: it's very much in line with opinion over more than five years, which has barely shifted in that time, despite everything else that's gone on.
It does amuse me that some Scots Nats refer to certain posters as 'PB Romney's' when Romney was far closer to winning than Yes has ever been, yet while they rightly perceived that Obama would cruise relatively easily to victory, they can't see the parallel in Scotland.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE General Election Projection :
Con 306 .. Lab 276 .. LibDem 35 .. SNP 10 .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. Ukip 1 .. Respect 0 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 20 seats short of a majority
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WIND (Whimsical Independent News Division) is an independent arm of the JNN (Jacobite News Network) publishing the contents of my ARSE (Anonymous Random Selection of Electors)
Puntastic.
I speak, of course, For All Readers Truly...
Constituency:
Lab 38
SNP 34
Con 15
LD 5
Oth 7
Regional
SNP 34
Lab 33
Con 14
LD 6
Oth 13
That would lead to a very close final result and who ended up on top would depend on how the AMS allocations worked out.
That said, the independence vote will massively affect VI for both Westminster and Holyrood, with the referendum either giving the SNP a massive boost or sticking an enormous hole in its plans.
Clearly therefore Yes is NOT closing the gap the figures in this new purported poll are identical to the last published poll on December 11th . No progress for Yes .in the 6 weeks in between then and now.
The PB Romneys were famous for hilariously disregarding just how damaging it is to a politician when the voter clearly thinks they are out of touch and utterly incapable of understanding normal voters. A fact I'm sure you will never fully grasp.
"We're all in this together" right?
LOL
By all means keep posting away bitterly as most of the PB tories on here are a superb asset.
Sadly for you it's for the Yes campaign.
Perhaps there is some truth in the old theory that more than a few tories want a Yes vote to stuff Labour and know that being a complete liability to 'better together' is the best way possible to ensure that.
Outside of the "JackW Dozen" I'll not be giving a running commentary on individual Con/Lab/LibDem seats. However for Greens and Farage you are certainly not too far off a bullseye.
Bit hard to take prognostications on polling changes from those with that kind of massive blind spot for their own parties dire polling.
Was it because they spent £171,000 just on fitting out their office?
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/yes-team-spent-10-of-its-funds-on-office.23326550
Mr. Observer, bear in mind the 1997 result. Labour thought devolution would give them a permanent fiefdom beyond Conservative control when the blues return to office in Westminster, SNP types obviously were pro-devolution because it was a step towards their raison d'etre.
As a Unionist, for me the challenge is to work out how the centre-right regroups post 18th September so that we prepare a strong centre-right party for the first post independence elections and part of that is to encourage the large number of prominent Tartan Tories in the SNP to move across to the new centre-right party we will need to form.
Net gains from Con to Lab but two seats in the south moving Lab to Con. Con net gains from LibDem to Con but two seats other way.
LibDems losing seats to Labour and SNP. No reverse gains.
Today's changes from the 7 Jan 14 ARSE :
Con +10 .. Lab -7 .. LibDem -2 .. Ukip -1 .. All other parties unchanged. This is the lowest LibDem number in this ARSE cycle.
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/2r7gjlmi92/YG-Archive-131209-Scotland.pdf
Anyone have any information on the Nov 27 -- Dec 2 poll listed? I don't have that on my list, and it is not on the wiki, nor UK Polling Report.
http://joesaward.wordpress.com/2014/02/04/thoughts-of-tv-numbers/
Basically, more money, fewer viewers. Good for money directly from TV but it won't help to attract sponsors.
http://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/1011670/falkirk-membership-inquiry.txt
Even if the DKs all stayed at home, this would be a 61%:39% whitewash for Better Off In.
People are wasting their money on "Out". And I'm happy to take any of the CyberNats by offering 5% better odds than the best odds on Oddschecker, in any size. (Best odds, currently, are 4.5. I'll offer 4.65.)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/energy/fracking/10614840/Britains-energy-crisis-is-about-to-boil-over.html
At some point the conflict between jobs/economy/keeping the lights and on being green/saving the whales is going to burst out into the open. If and when we start to see actual brownouts and utterly unsustainable energy price rises I think the consensus for carbon reduction will finally evaporate and energy policy will start to be driven by those with some understanding of physics and economics.
Blair didn't want Devolution. He would much rather have not done it but even he knew that he had no chance of being leader without supporting John Smith and labour's settled policy.
Rejecting Devolution would have merely hastened where we are today.
Nor can the damage to the tories for opposing Devolution be underestimated. Sure, they had to u-turn on that fairly sharpish after he public told them what they thought of that but the scottish public are somewhat unlikely to view tory prognostications on Devolution particularly seriously even now.
http://www1.skysports.com/f1/news/12472/9148566/mercedes-are-ahead-after-the-2014-jerez-test-reckons-saubers-adrian-sutil
It's also worth recalling their car was rather awful at the start of 2013, but in the latter half of the season Hulkenberg (admittedly a top driver) was regularly dragging it into or close to the top 6.
However what is striking is the stability of the projection. Since Jun 13 the seat ranges for the main parties have been :
Con 290-306 .. Lab 268-283 .. LibDem 35-44
http://wingsoverscotland.com/?s=yes+map
Fight fight fight !!!!
http://order-order.com/2014/02/04/red-ukip-2/
There is a reason why the Tories continue to be so toxic in Scotland. I know that Tories always think it is other people's fault, but if the UK does disappear they may at some stage bring themselves to acknowledge that some events and decisions taken between 1979 and 1997 may have played a role.
I guess the interesting question would then be: What about Scotland after a narrow No vote? Whichever way it goes there'll be a legacy of lingering bitterness from the losing side. Is it possible to give Scotland any more devolution within the UK and not also see EV4EL? Maybe the big outcome will not be the emergence of Scotland but the emergence of England.
Titters ....
As I keep having to prove, it's hardly just me pointing out the obvious to Clegg's ostrich faction of spinners. Analysts are continually downgrading their already dire forecasts for the lib dems under Calamity Clegg.
As for 'they voted for it': will we see a referendum on reintroducing hanging? Leaving the EU? The devolution vote was not about some high-minded notion of granting the Scots their democratic rights but a cretinous, ill-considered act which has not delivered a permanent fiefdom for Labour but instead brought this country to the brink of destruction.
Labour are inept in many ways, but surely their constitutional meddling must rank alongside their economic incompetence.
I find that my middle class acquaintances who tend to be LibDem and Tory voters are solidly in the NO camp with a few YES diehards but my working class acquaintances who tend to be Labour and SNP voters are mostly in the YES camp with a few, particularly among the older generation who lived through the war or have a military background in the NO camp.
The referendum wont be won or lost in the rural community, it will be won or lost in the sprawling housing estates in Central Scotland, and other cities. It will be working class Scots, Labour voters who will decide the referendum and they are the ones most likely to respond to the anti-Tory, anti-English rhetoric. If the Scottish trade unions come out for independence (which they may do if little Ed upsets them much more), the YES vote should win quite easily.
I doubt Murdo has forgotten that and is merely biding his time.
I do worry that if there is a Yes vote the break-up may be more acrimonious than many feel it will be.
The excitement mounts.
Whereas the reality the polls found was that 500 of our finest (presumably) English pounds would secure it one way or another.
That may well be true, but to turn that round it seems to me that the Scots think (especially Scots nats, which you are not) they know exactly everything about England and the how feel and do things. The Scots are for more arrogant towards the English then vice versa.
Oops.
By some estimates they might just have been unstable or drunk.
There are also very big reasons, beyond that sort of thing, why a separation could be bad and messy. Faslane could cost the UK billions of pounds. Financial institutions and jobs could drift south. The proposed currency union (which I still think will be about as popular south of the border as a pint of vomit) would require the British to be on the hook for Scottish debt and the Scots to cede fiscal limits to the nation they just voted to leave. I'm sure there are more, but I'm still a bit sleepy and those are the ones that spring to mind.
You are in no way a complete liability that reinforces every stereotype of out of touch tories.
*tears of laughter etc.*
I respectfully suggest that the @QueenofSpain gets her own kingdom in order.
Huzzah for Catalonia and hands of Gibraltar your Majesty !!
Their ‘News and polling protection identifier ‘ (NAPPI © )should help with any future er, problems.
Looking at the polls, all I see is a fairly convincing NO vote.
I'm supportive of Scots Independence for all sorts of reasons, partly because if enough Scots fancy it, then they should have it, and bugger the consequences. Sometimes you've just gotta strap yourself in and press the red button.
I also relish the chance of being English. I know that word upsets a lot of people on here, and in the more trendy, liberal media, who equate patriotism with jingoism, but they're just gonna have to suck it up, and take nationality elsewhere, if they don't fancy having "English" on their passport.
What Tories should ask themselves is just why the Scots had become so convinced that they needed devolution in the first place. That, though, may necessitate a level of reflection that they may find uncomfortable. For the Tories it is always easier to blame others.
@NickPalmer
Apols that my bickering with @Hugh annoys you, just that when someone accuses me of being racist I tend to want to dig them out for it. Saying nothing would make it seem like they had a point.
Have emailed the UKIp campaign team to let them know
Markit released its monthly PMI for UK Construction this morning.
Continuing thre recovery of the sector, now in place for over six months the PMI for January was 64.6, up from 62.1 in December.
Given that the last three Construction PMIs have all been over 60 it does make one wonder how the ONS reached a conclusion that Construction Output fell by 0.3% in Q4 2013.
Yeah because they're the only political party that does that.
Zzzzzzz.
Perhaps you'd like to increase the stake on our bet as to whether the Scottish LDs will beat the SCons on vote share at the next GE.