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Apologies if this poll has been mentioned before.
But on the YouGov website there's a reference to a poll, another good one for yes.
Fieldwork ended on the 27th of Jan
Yes 33 (+2)
No 52 (-3)
Changes are from the last yougov at the start of December
page 5 of this tracker
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/js94dy0s85/YG-Archives-Pol-Trackers-Scotland-030214.pdf
Rasmussen Kentucky 2014 GOP Senate
•Mitch McConnell (R) 42%
•Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 42%
•Some other candidate 6%
•Undecided 10%
12 hours
Rasmussen Kentucky 2014 GOP Senate
•Mitch McConnell (R) 42%
•Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 42%
•Some other candidate 6%
•Undecided 10%
Philip Bobbitt would have it that it was the beginning of a "long war" that ended only with the end of the Cold War and the demise of the Soviet Union.
It is a compelling and intuitively attractive interpretation of an epochal war that includes the WWI, Versailles of course, WWII as the continued clash of political ideals and finally the defeat of the last remaining competing political ideal to western liberalism, namely communism as practiced by the USSR.
Much like SeanT in Bangkok then ....
Meanwhile enjoy your non-Rennard shambles.
Put it this way, in August the no lead was 30 points (although I accept this was in a poll with a pejorative wording in favour of no)
This from the cheerleader of a party that has enough MSPs to fit in a taxi.
But don't take my word for it.
Here's yet another anlayst downgrading Calamity Clegg's lib dems. Three cheers for Calamity Clegg!
LOL
"The yawning gap between rulers and ruled has created a profound problem for both mainstream parties in responding to Ukip – no political message they offer is likely to succeed without a credible messenger who can win over the hearts and minds of these disaffected, distrustful voters. These voters would give a fair hearing to politicians like Margaret Thatcher, the Grantham grocer's daughter; John Major, the self-made Brixton striver; Neil Kinnock, the son of the Welsh mining villages; and John Prescott, the merchant navy shop steward made good. These were leaders whose own lives furnished the language needed to make a connection – the struggles of hard-pressed voters were their struggles, too. But the sons of Hampstead intellectuals and London stockbrokers, who spent their lives at the centre of charmed circles, cannot hope for an easy audience from those who have not been so fortunate."
In 1914, had Germany retained the "Ostaufmarsch" preferred by the elder Moltke (5/9th's in the east, 4/9ths in the west) it goes something like this
No need to be on offensive - that was Schlieffen's obsession with a short war. Moltke the elder thought it would last 7-30 years
In the west they have defensive line one third of the length of the one they defended quite well for over 3 years
They focus on Russia, await the Russian attack and then give them a quick biffing in the Polish salient before handing over to the politicians to get a good deal
Germany beat Russia with one hand behind their back anyway, so no problem
If Russia attacked A-H, it was not for certain France would have come to her aid.
For your piece I suggest Anika Mombauer's book on the younger Moltke and Trevor Wilson The Myriad Faces of War ("Clark's predecessor as best book..."
1914 was year zero
That's enough First World War - Ed (funny, my wife says that too)
I'm not wrong as you claim - many, many pubs already open past 11pm. The old restrictions were binned years ago.
The idea that "football fans won't be able to watch the game in the pub" is demonstrable rubbish. The Italy match is on a Saturday night - many, even most, pubs already open late on Saturdays.
Yes there will be some pubs in villages that don't - so a blanket licence will work well for them. But that doesn't stop the story being based on an absurd false premise.
The vast majority of people will be able to watch the game in the pub if they so choose without the PM doing anything - as many if not most pubs will be open as a matter of course. Referee!
David Blanchflower in gloomy prediction shock......
LOL
How many Scottish council by-elections is it since the SNP won one? About 20?
Yes might win. There may have been a small movement that way over the last month - but they're a long way behind and it's not obvious what might shift minds between now and polling day given that the campaign's been going for ages and hasn't shifted much at all in that time.
On the Pro-benefits side: Ken Livingstone, Annabell Giles and a Vicar
On the Anti-benefits side: Katie Hopkins
Yes the only person they could find to criticise the current system was the repulsive Hopkins.
"Cameron's ancestors were slave traders"
"What about the bankers?" are typical comments
They have White Dee on:
Katie Hopkins complained that White Dee swore in front of her kids
Matthew Wright "but she's sick"
LOL
The Times published a summary of council by-elections the other day:
"Analysis by Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher for The Sunday Times shows how strong UKIP has become. The professors at Plymouth University Elections Centre have recalibrated their celebrated analysis of more than 100,000 votes cast in council by-elections and now put UKIP in third place in their latest national forecast: Labour 34%, Tories 28%, UKIP 17%, Lib Dems 13%.
Since last year's council elections, UKIP has taken 10 seats from the Conservatives and two each from Labour and the Lib Dems. In places where it stands, UKIP takes an average 22% of the vote compared with 15% for the Lib Dems.
Traditionally the Lib Dem vote has comprised core supporters but also a strong protest vote against mainstream parties. That has gone. Rallings and Thrasher say there has been "a sea change" in UKIP's favour: "The Lib Dems, once the master tacticians of by-elections, are fading fast and are being replaced by UKIP.""
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/comment/columns/adamboulton/article1370209.ece
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/feb/03/tim-yeo-moderate-tory-mp-deselected
They beat labour in popular vote and seats won. (425) A handful of very small isolated council by-elections is self-evidently not as telling as when a huge mass of them are up for grabs.
Every single time the lib dems have large scale council elections they get hammered. I would hardly expect a PB tory to know why. I'm well aware of the dynamics of a large scale campaign in scotland and it needs boots on the ground, very enthusiastic campaigners and a huge effort put into GOTV. I have no doubt whatsoever which side of the campaign is far more prepared for that. The campaign hasn't even truly started yet anyway any more than it did eight months out from the scottish election or eight months out from the AV vote.
Nobody in the Yes campaign thinks it's going to be easy but the more that tories and out of touch lib dems try to pile and 'help' No the better.
You should be on your knees thanking Clegg for being so phenomenally stupid as to put the buffoon Carmichael where he is. He's on the scottish media almost every day and he's deflecting attention away from the scottish tories by being the face of No and more acutely the face of Cameron and Clegg's coalition. With entirely predictable results. Kippers beating lib dems in scottish EU elections polling and a by-election in scotland of all places.
http://www.comres.co.uk/poll/1076/sunday-mirror-independent-on-sunday-political-poll.htm
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by five, Lib Dems & UKIP tied for first time since start of Dec:
CON 33%, LAB 38%, LD 11%, UKIP 11%
Lay Arsenal.
A fair number of the BBC's shows are released as download as podcasts rather than through iplayer.
Not all, so a bit potluck, but a fair few.
Polling moving against UKIP + a sense of the media narrative becoming more hostile.
Dow Jones falls over 326 points, over 2%.
Remember Euros don't excite Labour supporters.
William Hague beat Blair in the 99 Euros.
http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/news-and-comment/arsenal-fixtures-per-mertesacker-tells-gunners-teammates-to-keep-their-chins-up-ahead-of-daunting-run-when-they-face-liverpool-twice-bayern-munich-and-manchester-united-9104309.html
'David Blanchflower in gloomy prediction shock.'
Has he ever got a prediction right?
As for the media, so what? Press is less important than TV and both are still overestimated in importance. Particularly for a protest party. There was no shortage of hit pieces against the kippers before the May locals and their effect was negligable if not downright counterproductive given the voters the kippers are targeting.
So, take your pick:
Labour appointee at quango
or
Homosexual causes flooding.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/10613627/Difficult-choices-as-the-flood-waters-rise.html
'just too excitable and partisan and made themselves look daft hyperventilating at small/no real poll movements?'
You have exclusivity on those points,simply in a league of your own.
Me, Basil and the goalposts, never to be parted before the next election.
Our p1 may turn a few heads in SW1 tomorrow. And not just because of important polling on what the English think of Scots independence.
Nope, it's just a part of being a sci-fi fan apparently.
'Really? Pray do explain with examples'
Unemployment forecasts is one of his specialist subjects I believe.
This time last week lab were down 4 ukip were up 4 and @hugh was calling everyone racist
Passive aggressively
But now the panics over
Nick Sutton @suttonnick 2m
Tuesday's Sun front page - "Out of Order! Order! "#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers
pic.twitter.com/JfF13kKD9O
Big John, biiiig John, Big Bad John. (Bercow)
Didn't Lab go to court to legally prove their manifesto was drivel?
As for UKIP hating Ed M as well as Cameron, well, does it matter? I know no.2 is trying to argue it should matter even if the rise of UKIP helps get Ed M to Downing Street, because of longterm impact on politics in general and the left in particular, but I cannot believe any of our political parties would think that far ahead - UKIP hits the Tories hardest first, that is all that matters. The ultimate goal is to secure victory in the shortterm, and hopefully you can figure out a workaround to a problem once you get in. Gaining power is the important thing, not how you do it or whether you have a plan to deal with problems you know are coming along is how they will all see it.
I imagine referring to UKIP as 'the most poweful movement of organised stupidity in recent british history; won't help either way.
You were panicking
Luckily it didn't. The snow storm didn't hit the city until about 5am, less than 12 hours after kickoff, meaning that spectators, players, media folks, and anyone else with flights out of the NYC airports was stuck until mid-day or so.
Kansas City, Denver, Philadelphia and Washington have all indicated they want to bid on a future Superbowl. KC and Philly are probably doubtful.
I hope this is insanity, but the more bidders, the higher the bid. The NFL insists on 40,000 hotel rooms being available 'in the area', two medium or one large conference facility, and two practice facilities. Also the stadium must hold at least 80,000. The 40,000 rooms and 80,000 seats are recent increases. Stadiums already having held Superbowls are mainly grandfathered in. Goodell is repeatedly on record saying he wants a Superbowl at Wembley.
Which brings us to Atlanta, which, if it had been hosting the game yesterday would have been pandemonium with the weather event of last week.
Governor Nathan Deal has announced a Severe Weather Advisory Committee. As well as the usual suspects - school administrators, emergency responders etc - he has appointed the 4 local network TV weather forecasters.
Yes, you guessed it - he's up for re-election this November.
http://illoganblogger.blogspot.co.uk/2014/01/ppc-nomination.html
The party's 2010 candidate, Loic Rich, is standing as an independent.
"I'm interested why UKIP supporters like to refer to the "White" working class so much though.
Perhaps Phillip below is right, and it's just shorthand. After all, even the Mighty Smithson used it. But I'd like to know what it's shorthand for."
I did engage, you asked what was the difference between white working class and non white working class, and I said the white ones were white and the non whites weren't.
And it happened to be the day lab were down four and ukip were up four in the polls, and an article saying ukip were the party of the working class was published
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8281859.stm
Of course as a Labour supporter you'll have erased out of the collective consciousness all memories of the Murdoch support for Labour during all those years.
I'm sure the subject will return the next time labour are shown to lose support from their old base to ukip
twitter.com/CllrHowardAllen/status/424875521919696896/photo/1
A man who served as UKIP's Commonwealth spokesman for a year is the former leader of a kidnapping gang in Pakistan, BBC Newsnight can reveal.
Mujeeb ur Rehman Bhutto's gang were behind a high-profile kidnapping in Karachi in 2004 and he then took a £56,000 ransom payment in Manchester.
In 2005, Bhutto, of Leeds, admitted being the gang's "boss" and was jailed for seven years by a UK court.
UKIP said Bhutto, 35, had "recently" resigned his party membership.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26019668
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/interactive/2014/feb/03/falkirk-membership-inquiry-report-labour
"Bhutto said he had now rejoined the Conservative Party, but the Tories said they had no record of that."
Where is the evidence for the four times and three times that stuff you posted last week? Or are you just another lefty bullshitter?
Get a room guys, for the love of God
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h-NGlOB4hJA
Rise of UK Independence Party hampers cooperation that has kept the continent at peace, Germany’s foreign minister says
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10615869/Ukip-is-a-threat-to-peace-in-Europe-says-Germany.html
As for the actual subject matter, nothing is more a threat to peace than a German led EU forcing austerity on to the Greeks and stealing money from Cypriots.
They really don't get it do they?
Honestly I don't know what gets into such peoples' head sometimes. I'm generally supportive of the idea of the EU, even if I think it does not work very well in its current form and pisses about with interfering in minute or national matters which are not necessary to keep a harmonious union, but the presence of the EU did not invent the idea of peace and cooperation between European nations.
The nations wanted to cooperate more because it was in everyone's interests to do so, and that desire helped lead to the EU's beginnings. Now many do not want to cooperate further than they already do (or want to less than they do now), and forcing closer integration on them will not stop such feelings from arising, in fact it will only increase it. Integration in of itself does not create peace out of the aether if the rest of the conditions necessary are absent.
This is one reason why I feel, against my own instincts, we probably should leave the EU - a large proportion of the UK either don't want it at all, or they do not want it in the way it currently exists (and attempts to change it from that form are treated with universal contempt by those heavily pro or against the union), and it will not be to our benefit to amble along in a union we hate, and it won't be in the EU's interest to have a bitter, angry UK constantly getting in the way of their plans (I know we have allies for some of our aims, but the institution itself has not been shy about mocking and deriding any British proposal of true reform, which shows yet another reason why reforming it is pointless or impossible). It would be a cancer on the whole union, ignoring the concerns from citizens who do not want something, because the architects insist that they know better about what is good for them than they do. Even if they are right, unless people agree it will not help to force them.
If it turns out to be a mistake and we did come crawling back, the EU would be within its rights to exact a heavy price, but forcing integration on nations which don't want it will only intensify the bitterness at the heart of the European project, and undermine its stated mission and goals more than UKIP or other similar parties ever could.
Blimey, it his her, and well, according to the Sun during a booze-fuelled night out clubbing.
Witnesses said sozzled Sally Bercow, 44, who was wearing a wig as she partied in London’s West End, could not keep her hands off the muscular clubber.