Anyway, on thread - surely not. Yousaf has all Nicola Sturgeon's negatives and none of her positives. I don't really see what consituency he appeals to.
Not my party, obviously, and I don't know the selectorate. But when other parties have elected leaders who don't necessarily speak to the wider electorate, they've done so because they represent an obvious strain of what that party believes. I would have thought the SNP equivalent would be more akin to Ash Regan. Yousaf strikes me as neither one to connect to the wider electorate nor one to boldly fight the battle for independence whatever public opinion believes.
Interesting to see the photos at the top, just realised I wouldn't have recognised any of them, even vaguely, despite all the campaigning and reading this blog pretty much daily.
If nothing else, it does differentiate him from Trump. Though if he's going to have any chance of the nomination, he'll have to take Trump on directly, rather than avoiding the confrontation as he's done up until now.
Here is the reality on doctors' pay. The UK is not the highest payer in Europe for hospital doctors but it is well above the median. It is also considerably higher than the nearest comparable system, Sweden, which has a nationalised system unlike most other "mixed economy" health systems
Additionally UK doctors have the safest jobs than any other walk of life, even by public sector standards. It is almost impossible to sack a hospital doctor in the NHS, even when they are incompetent. They also have highly lucrative pension schemes which see them retire on pensions that give them a take home payment that is in excess of double what the average taxpayer earns, and hospital consultants often also have lucrative private practices that are effectively conflicts of interest, but the NHS turns a blind eye to it.
Most so-called "junior" doctors (those below consultant level) earn salaries that are very comparative to other non-partner level professionals such as lawyers and accountants that are outside the distorted salaries found in London.
As for GPs: they are raking it in! The reality is that if doctors were a little less greedy there would be the possibility to be more generous to other health professionals who are probably underpaid.
In summary, those that are swallowing the line of the doctors unions that they are underpaid, I have a bridge to sell you.
BIB: that GPs are raking in £80,000 a year does not mean junior hospital doctors are not underpaid (or overworked or working antisocial hours).
As a junior analyst I worked from 7am to 10pm fairly often despite my contract hours being 8am to 5pm, I got paid fuck all to do it as well. Junior doctoring is exactly the same, short term shite while you're in your 20s so you can climb the earnings ladder and once you hit 30 you've got a substantial income.
If we're going to change the model to pay more at an earlier stage then pay later in medical careers needs to fall.
What I don't understand is why doctors think they should be treated any differently to other high yielding industry, all lawyers, financiers, analysts etc... will start on shit wages for long hours, it's called paying one's dues. Doctors seem to want to have their cake and eat it.
That's a reasonable point Max in general.
But in specific at the moment the previously already lower wages that junior doctors are getting paid aren't just being frozen in real terms, but a proposed substantial cut. While taxpayers money is going to pay others a double-digit rise, including the state pension of retired doctors on defined benefit schemes.
That's f***ed up is it not?
Should a retired doctor on a defined benefit scheme get a double-digit percentage increase in their state pension, while a junior doctor sees a nearly double-digit percentage cut in their real terms income from their already lower wage? Is that paying their dues?
Keeping lower wages flat, while other wages are flat, is entirely reasonable. But cutting some wages in real terms while increasing others by double digit percentages . . . that's a political choice, not necessity.
If Oddschecker is correct a lot of bookies have left this market, after being in it at the start. Hills (and Ladbrokes?) certainly have. Is this because they have come to regard it as unpriceable, or perhaps that the challenges to the process will lead to a stewards' enquiry under Jockey Club rules.
I don't think Forbes is impossible, but I don't understand Scottish politics - except that she is an obvious and stand out star. But then so was Boris.
Here is the reality on doctors' pay. The UK is not the highest payer in Europe for hospital doctors but it is well above the median. It is also considerably higher than the nearest comparable system, Sweden, which has a nationalised system unlike most other "mixed economy" health systems
Additionally UK doctors have the safest jobs than any other walk of life, even by public sector standards. It is almost impossible to sack a hospital doctor in the NHS, even when they are incompetent. They also have highly lucrative pension schemes which see them retire on pensions that give them a take home payment that is in excess of double what the average taxpayer earns, and hospital consultants often also have lucrative private practices that are effectively conflicts of interest, but the NHS turns a blind eye to it.
Most so-called "junior" doctors (those below consultant level) earn salaries that are very comparative to other non-partner level professionals such as lawyers and accountants that are outside the distorted salaries found in London.
As for GPs: they are raking it in! The reality is that if doctors were a little less greedy there would be the possibility to be more generous to other health professionals who are probably underpaid.
In summary, those that are swallowing the line of the doctors unions that they are underpaid, I have a bridge to sell you.
BIB: that GPs are raking in £80,000 a year does not mean junior hospital doctors are not underpaid (or overworked or working antisocial hours).
As a junior analyst I worked from 7am to 10pm fairly often despite my contract hours being 8am to 5pm, I got paid fuck all to do it as well. Junior doctoring is exactly the same, short term shite while you're in your 20s so you can climb the earnings ladder and once you hit 30 you've got a substantial income.
If we're going to change the model to pay more at an earlier stage then pay later in medical careers needs to fall.
What I don't understand is why doctors think they should be treated any differently to other high yielding industry, all lawyers, financiers, analysts etc... will start on shit wages for long hours, it's called paying one's dues. Doctors seem to want to have their cake and eat it.
That's a reasonable point Max in general.
But in specific at the moment the previously already lower wages that junior doctors are getting paid aren't just being frozen in real terms, but a proposed substantial cut. While taxpayers money is going to pay others a double-digit rise, including the state pension of retired doctors on defined benefit schemes.
That's f***ed up is it not?
Should a retired doctor on a defined benefit scheme get a double-digit percentage increase in their state pension, while a junior doctor sees a nearly double-digit percentage cut in their real terms income from their already lower wage? Is that paying their dues?
Keeping lower wages flat, while other wages are flat, is entirely reasonable. But cutting some wages in real terms while increasing others by double digit percentages . . . that's a political choice, not necessity.
You have been admirably consistent about wanting a free market in labour. There is a free market for junior doctors in fact there is surplus demand. Hence by your own estimation, as indeed you have noted, wages should fall as they are competed downwards. They shouldn't rise.
Plus the NPV of a "junior doctors" wages is substantially higher than many others and as we know they are bright enough to have worked this out.
What happens to senior consultants or investment bankers is neither here nor there.
Anyway, on thread - surely not. Yousaf has all Nicola Sturgeon's negatives and none of her positives. I don't really see what consituency he appeals to.
Not my party, obviously, and I don't know the selectorate. But when other parties have elected leaders who don't necessarily speak to the wider electorate, they've done so because they represent an obvious strain of what that party believes. I would have thought the SNP equivalent would be more akin to Ash Regan. Yousaf strikes me as neither one to connect to the wider electorate nor one to boldly fight the battle for independence whatever public opinion believes.
The obvious strain of party belief which Regan represents belongs to Alba, the bleedin’ obvious evidence of which is that her official endorsements remain Cherry, Salmond and Murray.
What needs explaining is the Tory poll veering from 20-35% in a few days. The run of Tory figures recently (see Wiki) is symptomatic of something seriously odd. But what? The Lab vote is steady.
Still an utterly ridiculous poll. All those Greens tilting to Ref and Con is a bit of a giggle.
It’s Matt “Godwin” Goodwin’s gang, so obviously dodgy in some way. The man is a clown, although has a devotee in @Andy_JS on here, for reasons unknown.
Why do you think I'm a devotee of him in particular.
If Oddschecker is correct a lot of bookies have left this market, after being in it at the start. Hills (and Ladbrokes?) certainly have. Is this because they have come to regard it as unpriceable, or perhaps that the challenges to the process will lead to a stewards' enquiry under Jockey Club rules.
I don't think Forbes is impossible, but I don't understand Scottish politics - except that she is an obvious and stand out star. But then so was Boris.
They're all impossible one way or another. But someone will get the job.
If nothing else, it does differentiate him from Trump. Though if he's going to have any chance of the nomination, he'll have to take Trump on directly, rather than avoiding the confrontation as he's done up until now.
It’s the major difference between being governor and being president. The latter spends a huge proportion of his time on foreign policy issues, and someone wanting the promotion needs to at least have thought through the major foreign policy issues of the day.
If RDS wants to stand for the top job (and I’m still not sure he’s going for it in 2024, rather than waiting for 2028), then he’ll need to be spending a lot more time researching and getting briefings on world affairs.
What needs explaining is the Tory poll veering from 20-35% in a few days. The run of Tory figures recently (see Wiki) is symptomatic of something seriously odd. But what? The Lab vote is steady.
Aren't some pollsters using previous vote for "don't know"s or at least making adjusments to assign some don't knows? I think I remembe posts along those lines. Given a lot of Con GE2019 has moved to don't know, rather than another party, that could explain a lot.
Remains to be seen how good those adjustments are, but for habitual voters who don't know, the same vote as last time (at least for a fair minority) could be likely. The catch might be any rare voters who turned out last time for Boris and Brexit and might simply not bother this time.
Anyway, on thread - surely not. Yousaf has all Nicola Sturgeon's negatives and none of her positives. I don't really see what consituency he appeals to.
Not my party, obviously, and I don't know the selectorate. But when other parties have elected leaders who don't necessarily speak to the wider electorate, they've done so because they represent an obvious strain of what that party believes. I would have thought the SNP equivalent would be more akin to Ash Regan. Yousaf strikes me as neither one to connect to the wider electorate nor one to boldly fight the battle for independence whatever public opinion believes.
The obvious strain of party belief which Regan represents belongs to Alba, the bleedin’ obvious evidence of which is that her official endorsements remain Cherry, Salmond and Murray.
Also: NB that the betting question is "next FM" not "next SNP leader".
Here is the reality on doctors' pay. The UK is not the highest payer in Europe for hospital doctors but it is well above the median. It is also considerably higher than the nearest comparable system, Sweden, which has a nationalised system unlike most other "mixed economy" health systems
Additionally UK doctors have the safest jobs than any other walk of life, even by public sector standards. It is almost impossible to sack a hospital doctor in the NHS, even when they are incompetent. They also have highly lucrative pension schemes which see them retire on pensions that give them a take home payment that is in excess of double what the average taxpayer earns, and hospital consultants often also have lucrative private practices that are effectively conflicts of interest, but the NHS turns a blind eye to it.
Most so-called "junior" doctors (those below consultant level) earn salaries that are very comparative to other non-partner level professionals such as lawyers and accountants that are outside the distorted salaries found in London.
As for GPs: they are raking it in! The reality is that if doctors were a little less greedy there would be the possibility to be more generous to other health professionals who are probably underpaid.
In summary, those that are swallowing the line of the doctors unions that they are underpaid, I have a bridge to sell you.
BIB: that GPs are raking in £80,000 a year does not mean junior hospital doctors are not underpaid (or overworked or working antisocial hours).
As a junior analyst I worked from 7am to 10pm fairly often despite my contract hours being 8am to 5pm, I got paid fuck all to do it as well. Junior doctoring is exactly the same, short term shite while you're in your 20s so you can climb the earnings ladder and once you hit 30 you've got a substantial income.
If we're going to change the model to pay more at an earlier stage then pay later in medical careers needs to fall.
What I don't understand is why doctors think they should be treated any differently to other high yielding industry, all lawyers, financiers, analysts etc... will start on shit wages for long hours, it's called paying one's dues. Doctors seem to want to have their cake and eat it.
That's a reasonable point Max in general.
But in specific at the moment the previously already lower wages that junior doctors are getting paid aren't just being frozen in real terms, but a proposed substantial cut. While taxpayers money is going to pay others a double-digit rise, including the state pension of retired doctors on defined benefit schemes.
That's f***ed up is it not?
Should a retired doctor on a defined benefit scheme get a double-digit percentage increase in their state pension, while a junior doctor sees a nearly double-digit percentage cut in their real terms income from their already lower wage? Is that paying their dues?
Keeping lower wages flat, while other wages are flat, is entirely reasonable. But cutting some wages in real terms while increasing others by double digit percentages . . . that's a political choice, not necessity.
You have been admirably consistent about wanting a free market in labour. There is a free market for junior doctors in fact there is surplus demand. Hence by your own estimation, as indeed you have noted, wages should fall as they are competed downwards. They shouldn't rise.
Plus the NPV of a "junior doctors" wages is substantially higher than many others and as we know they are bright enough to have worked this out.
What happens to senior consultants or investment bankers is neither here nor there.
If nothing else, it does differentiate him from Trump. Though if he's going to have any chance of the nomination, he'll have to take Trump on directly, rather than avoiding the confrontation as he's done up until now.
It’s the major difference between being governor and being president. The latter spends a huge proportion of his time on foreign policy issues, and someone wanting the promotion needs to at least have thought through the major foreign policy issues of the day.
If RDS wants to stand for the top job (and I’m still not sure he’s going for it in 2024, rather than waiting for 2028), then he’ll need to be spending a lot more time researching and getting briefings on world affairs.
Like Trump, he'll say whatever he needs to get elected. Which will have very little influence at all on what he actually might do.
Anyway, on thread - surely not. Yousaf has all Nicola Sturgeon's negatives and none of her positives. I don't really see what consituency he appeals to.
Not my party, obviously, and I don't know the selectorate. But when other parties have elected leaders who don't necessarily speak to the wider electorate, they've done so because they represent an obvious strain of what that party believes. I would have thought the SNP equivalent would be more akin to Ash Regan. Yousaf strikes me as neither one to connect to the wider electorate nor one to boldly fight the battle for independence whatever public opinion believes.
The obvious strain of party belief which Regan represents belongs to Alba, the bleedin’ obvious evidence of which is that her official endorsements remain Cherry, Salmond and Murray.
Also: NB that the betting question is "next FM" not "next SNP leader".
If Forbes wins the leadership it’ll be interesting to see how the FM vote goes. I imagine the agreement with the Greens will be down the tubes, in that scenario would the Greens sit on their hands?
If nothing else, it does differentiate him from Trump. Though if he's going to have any chance of the nomination, he'll have to take Trump on directly, rather than avoiding the confrontation as he's done up until now.
It’s the major difference between being governor and being president. The latter spends a huge proportion of his time on foreign policy issues, and someone wanting the promotion needs to at least have thought through the major foreign policy issues of the day.
If RDS wants to stand for the top job (and I’m still not sure he’s going for it in 2024, rather than waiting for 2028), then he’ll need to be spending a lot more time researching and getting briefings on world affairs.
And if DeSantis does wait for 2028 then probably his better bet is to continue avoiding confrontations with Trump in the hope of inheriting his MAGA supporters next time.
It's taken longer (& probably cost more) for us to not deliver Ajax.
The project started in 2001, and they’re hoping to have them operational by 2026.
Looks pretty standard for military procurement.
Yup.
Though the Ukraine war has demonstrated, once again, that when the politics and other bullshit are out of the way, weapons procurement can go very fast.
Here is the reality on doctors' pay. The UK is not the highest payer in Europe for hospital doctors but it is well above the median. It is also considerably higher than the nearest comparable system, Sweden, which has a nationalised system unlike most other "mixed economy" health systems
Additionally UK doctors have the safest jobs than any other walk of life, even by public sector standards. It is almost impossible to sack a hospital doctor in the NHS, even when they are incompetent. They also have highly lucrative pension schemes which see them retire on pensions that give them a take home payment that is in excess of double what the average taxpayer earns, and hospital consultants often also have lucrative private practices that are effectively conflicts of interest, but the NHS turns a blind eye to it.
Most so-called "junior" doctors (those below consultant level) earn salaries that are very comparative to other non-partner level professionals such as lawyers and accountants that are outside the distorted salaries found in London.
As for GPs: they are raking it in! The reality is that if doctors were a little less greedy there would be the possibility to be more generous to other health professionals who are probably underpaid.
In summary, those that are swallowing the line of the doctors unions that they are underpaid, I have a bridge to sell you.
BIB: that GPs are raking in £80,000 a year does not mean junior hospital doctors are not underpaid (or overworked or working antisocial hours).
As a junior analyst I worked from 7am to 10pm fairly often despite my contract hours being 8am to 5pm, I got paid fuck all to do it as well. Junior doctoring is exactly the same, short term shite while you're in your 20s so you can climb the earnings ladder and once you hit 30 you've got a substantial income.
If we're going to change the model to pay more at an earlier stage then pay later in medical careers needs to fall.
What I don't understand is why doctors think they should be treated any differently to other high yielding industry, all lawyers, financiers, analysts etc... will start on shit wages for long hours, it's called paying one's dues. Doctors seem to want to have their cake and eat it.
That's a reasonable point Max in general.
But in specific at the moment the previously already lower wages that junior doctors are getting paid aren't just being frozen in real terms, but a proposed substantial cut. While taxpayers money is going to pay others a double-digit rise, including the state pension of retired doctors on defined benefit schemes.
That's f***ed up is it not?
Should a retired doctor on a defined benefit scheme get a double-digit percentage increase in their state pension, while a junior doctor sees a nearly double-digit percentage cut in their real terms income from their already lower wage? Is that paying their dues?
Keeping lower wages flat, while other wages are flat, is entirely reasonable. But cutting some wages in real terms while increasing others by double digit percentages . . . that's a political choice, not necessity.
You have been admirably consistent about wanting a free market in labour. There is a free market for junior doctors in fact there is surplus demand. Hence by your own estimation, as indeed you have noted, wages should fall as they are competed downwards. They shouldn't rise.
Plus the NPV of a "junior doctors" wages is substantially higher than many others and as we know they are bright enough to have worked this out.
What happens to senior consultants or investment bankers is neither here nor there.
Absolutely Topping.
If there's more qualified job applicants for the junior doctors role to replace them, rather than pay what they're demanding, then I have no qualms with that being done. Sack the strikers and replace them with those equally qualified who are willing to do the job at the offered rate instead of a higher rate.
But I'm curious about what you mean by surplus demand meaning wages should fall? Surplus demand for junior doctors would mean the wage rises, surplus supply of people willing to do the job would mean a fall, and I'm not sure there's any evidence that there's surplus supply of people wanting and qualified to do that role.
If there is surplus supply, let the market do its thing and let any who end up without a job consider how they might have acted differently. But I don't think there is.
Anyway, on thread - surely not. Yousaf has all Nicola Sturgeon's negatives and none of her positives. I don't really see what consituency he appeals to.
Not my party, obviously, and I don't know the selectorate. But when other parties have elected leaders who don't necessarily speak to the wider electorate, they've done so because they represent an obvious strain of what that party believes. I would have thought the SNP equivalent would be more akin to Ash Regan. Yousaf strikes me as neither one to connect to the wider electorate nor one to boldly fight the battle for independence whatever public opinion believes.
The obvious strain of party belief which Regan represents belongs to Alba, the bleedin’ obvious evidence of which is that her official endorsements remain Cherry, Salmond and Murray.
Also: NB that the betting question is "next FM" not "next SNP leader".
If Forbes wins the leadership it’ll be interesting to see how the FM vote goes. I imagine the agreement with the Greens will be down the tubes, in that scenario would the Greens sit on their hands?
Exactly. At the moment it's all down to one of the Greens, Ms Johnstone, volunteering to be PO that the SNP even have precisely half the seats. If there is illness or whatever in any party ...
edit: normally Ms J would cast her vote for the status quo.
On topic, interested to note that the highlighted market has only £36k traded on it. It wouldn’t take much cash to move it a lot.
Firstly, why would anyone want to move it a lot as the votes have essentially now been cast? Secondly, it would take a lot of money to shift it as you'd immediately create an arbitrage opportunity.
It's taken longer (& probably cost more) for us to not deliver Ajax.
The project started in 2001, and they’re hoping to have them operational by 2026.
Looks pretty standard for military procurement.
Yup.
Though the Ukraine war has demonstrated, once again, that when the politics and other bullshit are out of the way, weapons procurement can go very fast.
See land launched Brimstone for Ukraine.
The usual military project delays, are caused by loads of silly scope changes from the customer, IIRC 1,200 changes on the MoD Ajax.
That won’t happen when there’s an actual war going on, it will be a case of we’ll take what can be delivered yesterday, and make it work in the field.
Hopefully, this war has been a wake-up call to Europe, about the need to be less reliant on the US. No matter who is the next President, the States will in future be looking more to China than Russia as the enemy,
Europe will have a few years though, there’s pretty much nothing left of the Russian army at the moment. They are already pulling T-55 tanks out of museums, by the summer they’ll be pulling T-33s off WWII memorials.
Yesterday I read some posts on here that suggested the harsher people fleeing in dingys (sic) were treated the better Sunaks figures. It was written by someone who is apparently well versed in the Red Wall and Tory thinking. It seemed to be written approvingly though that's not important. But what a disgusting indictment of this country and the voters they attract.
I missed that comment, but I think its utterly preposterous and wrong and whoever said that knows absolutely nothing about the Red Wall.
Certain commentators on this site, especially some who live in the South in deepest blue territory, seem to project their own prejudices onto the North/Red Wall.
As someone who lives up here may I reject them all. There are a small minority of racists in the North, like there are everywhere else, but that is not what the Red Wall is and its not the North. Anyone who is saying that is not well versed whatsoever in the Red Wall and has almost certainly never lived here, never campaigned here, and never knocked up voters here.
FPT. Sorry I wasn't able to reply. I like your sentiments but the proof of the pudding is in the Prime Minister's appointment of Suella Braverman. Her statements about the people in dinghies have been pretty disgusting yet considered to be just what the Red Wallers want to hear to bring them back on side. If they were unattractive to that vital voting block I'm sure Sunak would have removed her.
Anyway, on thread - surely not. Yousaf has all Nicola Sturgeon's negatives and none of her positives. I don't really see what consituency he appeals to.
Not my party, obviously, and I don't know the selectorate. But when other parties have elected leaders who don't necessarily speak to the wider electorate, they've done so because they represent an obvious strain of what that party believes. I would have thought the SNP equivalent would be more akin to Ash Regan. Yousaf strikes me as neither one to connect to the wider electorate nor one to boldly fight the battle for independence whatever public opinion believes.
The obvious strain of party belief which Regan represents belongs to Alba, the bleedin’ obvious evidence of which is that her official endorsements remain Cherry, Salmond and Murray.
Also: NB that the betting question is "next FM" not "next SNP leader".
If Forbes wins the leadership it’ll be interesting to see how the FM vote goes. I imagine the agreement with the Greens will be down the tubes, in that scenario would the Greens sit on their hands?
Exactly. At the moment it's all down to one of the Greens, Ms Johnstone, volunteering to be PO that the SNP even have precisely half the seats. If there is illness or whatever in any party ...
edit: normally Ms J would cast her vote for the status quo.
Harvie & co may want to side with party leaders who were solidly behind GRA reform (ie Sarwar & Cole Hamilton)..
I have very little to go off here, but my gut is that the higher Tory poll ratings are more likely to the accurate ones.
Not because I want them to be, but because I suspect the spiral of silence is now even more pronounced than it was pre-Truss. It’s not exactly easy to say you support the government right now.
What I am not sure about is whether the relevant pollsters that are showing higher Tory ratings are adjusting more aggressively to counter that. I am sure someone more in tune with the methodology would be able to tell me!
What needs explaining is the Tory poll veering from 20-35% in a few days. The run of Tory figures recently (see Wiki) is symptomatic of something seriously odd. But what? The Lab vote is steady.
Yes and no. Eyeballing it, and unscientifically because I have no time to do it properly, if you strip out the outliers then both Tory and Labour numbers have about the same variance. Hence, away from the trend (Tory a bit up and Labour a bit down) it’s all polling methodology differences.
Yesterday I read some posts on here that suggested the harsher people fleeing in dingys (sic) were treated the better Sunaks figures. It was written by someone who is apparently well versed in the Red Wall and Tory thinking. It seemed to be written approvingly though that's not important. But what a disgusting indictment of this country and the voters they attract.
I missed that comment, but I think its utterly preposterous and wrong and whoever said that knows absolutely nothing about the Red Wall.
Certain commentators on this site, especially some who live in the South in deepest blue territory, seem to project their own prejudices onto the North/Red Wall.
As someone who lives up here may I reject them all. There are a small minority of racists in the North, like there are everywhere else, but that is not what the Red Wall is and its not the North. Anyone who is saying that is not well versed whatsoever in the Red Wall and has almost certainly never lived here, never campaigned here, and never knocked up voters here.
FPT. Sorry I wasn't able to reply. I like your sentiments but the proof of the pudding is in the Prime Minister's appointment of Suella Braverman. Her statements about the people in dinghies have been pretty disgusting yet considered to be just what the Red Wallers want to hear to bring them back on side. If they were unattractive to that vital voting block I'm sure Sunak would have removed her.
Or Sunak recognises that the Red Wall could be lost either way and Suella is there to appeal to more traditionally blue seats to keep them happy and in the blue column.
The kind of seats from which all these comments projecting onto the Red Wall their own prejudices seem to be coming from anyway.
I can't think of a single commentator on this site from a Red Wall seat who is expressing those views or endorsing Suella Braverman. Those who seem to be doing so, seem to be in more typically safe blue seats than Red Wall seats.
Red Wall has become a flippant byline for people's own prejudices rather than thinking seriously about what people here actually want.
Anyway, on thread - surely not. Yousaf has all Nicola Sturgeon's negatives and none of her positives. I don't really see what consituency he appeals to.
Not my party, obviously, and I don't know the selectorate. But when other parties have elected leaders who don't necessarily speak to the wider electorate, they've done so because they represent an obvious strain of what that party believes. I would have thought the SNP equivalent would be more akin to Ash Regan. Yousaf strikes me as neither one to connect to the wider electorate nor one to boldly fight the battle for independence whatever public opinion believes.
The obvious strain of party belief which Regan represents belongs to Alba, the bleedin’ obvious evidence of which is that her official endorsements remain Cherry, Salmond and Murray.
Also: NB that the betting question is "next FM" not "next SNP leader".
If Forbes wins the leadership it’ll be interesting to see how the FM vote goes. I imagine the agreement with the Greens will be down the tubes, in that scenario would the Greens sit on their hands?
I still can't see any reason why there's a worse outcome for the new SNP leader than Sturgeon got in 2016 - elected by a minority with only a handful of votes for another candidate and mass abstentions from the opposition parties.
The new SNP leader might not have a majority, but nobody else will either.
I have very little to go off here, but my gut is that the higher Tory poll ratings are more likely to the accurate ones.
Not because I want them to be, but because I suspect the spiral of silence is now even more pronounced than it was pre-Truss. It’s not exactly easy to say you support the government right now.
What I am not sure about is whether the relevant pollsters that are showing higher Tory ratings are adjusting more aggressively to counter that. I am sure someone more in tune with the methodology would be able to tell me!
I don't really get why you think the spiral of silence would be worse than previously. It isn't that difficult for someone who supports the Government (of which I am not one) to say, "Sunak is a competent bloke in difficult circumstances, who is trying to stop the boats". Why is that more embarrassing to admit than backing Johnson at the height of Partygate?
Anyway, on thread - surely not. Yousaf has all Nicola Sturgeon's negatives and none of her positives. I don't really see what consituency he appeals to.
Not my party, obviously, and I don't know the selectorate. But when other parties have elected leaders who don't necessarily speak to the wider electorate, they've done so because they represent an obvious strain of what that party believes. I would have thought the SNP equivalent would be more akin to Ash Regan. Yousaf strikes me as neither one to connect to the wider electorate nor one to boldly fight the battle for independence whatever public opinion believes.
The obvious strain of party belief which Regan represents belongs to Alba, the bleedin’ obvious evidence of which is that her official endorsements remain Cherry, Salmond and Murray.
Also: NB that the betting question is "next FM" not "next SNP leader".
If Forbes wins the leadership it’ll be interesting to see how the FM vote goes. I imagine the agreement with the Greens will be down the tubes, in that scenario would the Greens sit on their hands?
Exactly. At the moment it's all down to one of the Greens, Ms Johnstone, volunteering to be PO that the SNP even have precisely half the seats. If there is illness or whatever in any party ...
edit: normally Ms J would cast her vote for the status quo.
Harvie & co may want to side with party leaders who were solidly behind GRA reform (ie Sarwar & Cole Hamilton)..
That's one thing I was wondering: but will the SGs see Slab as solid enough now SKS has recanted and gone back on things? SKS wouldn't want Slab to be doing their own thing in this particular, sorry, transaction.
Anyway, on thread - surely not. Yousaf has all Nicola Sturgeon's negatives and none of her positives. I don't really see what consituency he appeals to.
Not my party, obviously, and I don't know the selectorate. But when other parties have elected leaders who don't necessarily speak to the wider electorate, they've done so because they represent an obvious strain of what that party believes. I would have thought the SNP equivalent would be more akin to Ash Regan. Yousaf strikes me as neither one to connect to the wider electorate nor one to boldly fight the battle for independence whatever public opinion believes.
The obvious strain of party belief which Regan represents belongs to Alba, the bleedin’ obvious evidence of which is that her official endorsements remain Cherry, Salmond and Murray.
Also: NB that the betting question is "next FM" not "next SNP leader".
If Forbes wins the leadership it’ll be interesting to see how the FM vote goes. I imagine the agreement with the Greens will be down the tubes, in that scenario would the Greens sit on their hands?
I still can't see any reason why there's a worse outcome for the new SNP leader than Sturgeon got in 2016 - elected by a minority with only a handful of votes for another candidate and mass abstentions from the opposition parties.
The new SNP leader might not have a majority, but nobody else will either.
Wasn't a minority. Exactrly 50%, the PO not normally voting unless it is tied.
Quite right too. If they are investigating him, it is proof that they are corrupt.
Bad people. Very bad people. DRAIN THE SWAMP!
To be fair to Trump (yes, I know), the prosecutor he’s been arguing with this week is an elected Democrat from New York, whose manifesto was basically we’ll get the bad orange man. Mixing politics and law like this, is pretty much always a bad idea.
It does now appear that the Grand Jury can’t be convinced to issue charges, in this particular case anyway.
If DB falls, it’ll make 2008 seem like a brief and technical recession.
The German government won’t let it happen though, and the EU will be told to get off should they try and intervene.
Just two weeks ago I was mocked by the PB "masters of the universe" for suggesting that the FTSE was rather toppy, and that it was wise to dump financial stocks.
Anyway, on thread - surely not. Yousaf has all Nicola Sturgeon's negatives and none of her positives. I don't really see what consituency he appeals to.
Not my party, obviously, and I don't know the selectorate. But when other parties have elected leaders who don't necessarily speak to the wider electorate, they've done so because they represent an obvious strain of what that party believes. I would have thought the SNP equivalent would be more akin to Ash Regan. Yousaf strikes me as neither one to connect to the wider electorate nor one to boldly fight the battle for independence whatever public opinion believes.
The obvious strain of party belief which Regan represents belongs to Alba, the bleedin’ obvious evidence of which is that her official endorsements remain Cherry, Salmond and Murray.
Also: NB that the betting question is "next FM" not "next SNP leader".
If Forbes wins the leadership it’ll be interesting to see how the FM vote goes. I imagine the agreement with the Greens will be down the tubes, in that scenario would the Greens sit on their hands?
I still can't see any reason why there's a worse outcome for the new SNP leader than Sturgeon got in 2016 - elected by a minority with only a handful of votes for another candidate and mass abstentions from the opposition parties.
The new SNP leader might not have a majority, but nobody else will either.
Wasn't a minority. Exactrly 50%, the PO not normally voting unless it is tied.
Semantics, and arguably not very accurate semantics at that.
Your repeated argument of "the new SNP leader isn't necessarily going to be the new FM" relies on all other parties coalescing around a single candidate.
Anyway, on thread - surely not. Yousaf has all Nicola Sturgeon's negatives and none of her positives. I don't really see what consituency he appeals to.
Not my party, obviously, and I don't know the selectorate. But when other parties have elected leaders who don't necessarily speak to the wider electorate, they've done so because they represent an obvious strain of what that party believes. I would have thought the SNP equivalent would be more akin to Ash Regan. Yousaf strikes me as neither one to connect to the wider electorate nor one to boldly fight the battle for independence whatever public opinion believes.
The obvious strain of party belief which Regan represents belongs to Alba, the bleedin’ obvious evidence of which is that her official endorsements remain Cherry, Salmond and Murray.
Also: NB that the betting question is "next FM" not "next SNP leader".
If Forbes wins the leadership it’ll be interesting to see how the FM vote goes. I imagine the agreement with the Greens will be down the tubes, in that scenario would the Greens sit on their hands?
I still can't see any reason why there's a worse outcome for the new SNP leader than Sturgeon got in 2016 - elected by a minority with only a handful of votes for another candidate and mass abstentions from the opposition parties.
The new SNP leader might not have a majority, but nobody else will either.
Wasn't a minority. Exactrly 50%, the PO not normally voting unless it is tied.
Semantics, and arguably not very accurate semantics at that.
Your repeated argument of "the new SNP leader isn't necessarily going to be the new FM" relies on all other parties coalescing around a single candidate.
Come on.
We're not in Westminster. *There are separate votes for each candidate*.
Still an utterly ridiculous poll. All those Greens tilting to Ref and Con is a bit of a giggle.
It’s Matt “Godwin” Goodwin’s gang, so obviously dodgy in some way. The man is a clown, although has a devotee in @Andy_JS on here, for reasons unknown.
Why do you think I'm a devotee of him in particular.
You follow him around and seem to quote and retweet him frequently
Here is the reality on doctors' pay. The UK is not the highest payer in Europe for hospital doctors but it is well above the median. It is also considerably higher than the nearest comparable system, Sweden, which has a nationalised system unlike most other "mixed economy" health systems
Additionally UK doctors have the safest jobs than any other walk of life, even by public sector standards. It is almost impossible to sack a hospital doctor in the NHS, even when they are incompetent. They also have highly lucrative pension schemes which see them retire on pensions that give them a take home payment that is in excess of double what the average taxpayer earns, and hospital consultants often also have lucrative private practices that are effectively conflicts of interest, but the NHS turns a blind eye to it.
Most so-called "junior" doctors (those below consultant level) earn salaries that are very comparative to other non-partner level professionals such as lawyers and accountants that are outside the distorted salaries found in London.
As for GPs: they are raking it in! The reality is that if doctors were a little less greedy there would be the possibility to be more generous to other health professionals who are probably underpaid.
In summary, those that are swallowing the line of the doctors unions that they are underpaid, I have a bridge to sell you.
BIB: that GPs are raking in £80,000 a year does not mean junior hospital doctors are not underpaid (or overworked or working antisocial hours).
As a junior analyst I worked from 7am to 10pm fairly often despite my contract hours being 8am to 5pm, I got paid fuck all to do it as well. Junior doctoring is exactly the same, short term shite while you're in your 20s so you can climb the earnings ladder and once you hit 30 you've got a substantial income.
If we're going to change the model to pay more at an earlier stage then pay later in medical careers needs to fall.
What I don't understand is why doctors think they should be treated any differently to other high yielding industry, all lawyers, financiers, analysts etc... will start on shit wages for long hours, it's called paying one's dues. Doctors seem to want to have their cake and eat it.
That's a reasonable point Max in general.
But in specific at the moment the previously already lower wages that junior doctors are getting paid aren't just being frozen in real terms, but a proposed substantial cut. While taxpayers money is going to pay others a double-digit rise, including the state pension of retired doctors on defined benefit schemes.
That's f***ed up is it not?
Should a retired doctor on a defined benefit scheme get a double-digit percentage increase in their state pension, while a junior doctor sees a nearly double-digit percentage cut in their real terms income from their already lower wage? Is that paying their dues?
Keeping lower wages flat, while other wages are flat, is entirely reasonable. But cutting some wages in real terms while increasing others by double digit percentages . . . that's a political choice, not necessity.
You have been admirably consistent about wanting a free market in labour. There is a free market for junior doctors in fact there is surplus demand. Hence by your own estimation, as indeed you have noted, wages should fall as they are competed downwards. They shouldn't rise.
Plus the NPV of a "junior doctors" wages is substantially higher than many others and as we know they are bright enough to have worked this out.
What happens to senior consultants or investment bankers is neither here nor there.
Absolutely Topping.
If there's more qualified job applicants for the junior doctors role to replace them, rather than pay what they're demanding, then I have no qualms with that being done. Sack the strikers and replace them with those equally qualified who are willing to do the job at the offered rate instead of a higher rate.
But I'm curious about what you mean by surplus demand meaning wages should fall? Surplus demand for junior doctors would mean the wage rises, surplus supply of people willing to do the job would mean a fall, and I'm not sure there's any evidence that there's surplus supply of people wanting and qualified to do that role.
If there is surplus supply, let the market do its thing and let any who end up without a job consider how they might have acted differently. But I don't think there is.
I believe there is surplus demand for junior doctors jobs.
If DB falls, it’ll make 2008 seem like a brief and technical recession.
The German government won’t let it happen though, and the EU will be told to get off should they try and intervene.
Just two weeks ago I was mocked by the PB "masters of the universe" for suggesting that the FTSE was rather toppy, and that it was wise to dump financial stocks.
I came into a sum of money at the start of the year, low-to-mid five figures. It’s still sitting in cash, rather than transferred to the investment account. A good decision so far, even with inflation.
Whoever wins on Monday it is likely all downhill for the SNP and all uphill for Scottish Labour.
A new Scottish Ipsos poll for the Times gives Sturgeon a still healthy +8% rating. Forbes though is on -8%, behind Scottish Labour Leader Sarwar on -4%.
Yousaf is on an abysmal -20% with Scottish voters and Regan an even worse -23%. Sir Keir by contrast is on -9% with Scots
Here is the reality on doctors' pay. The UK is not the highest payer in Europe for hospital doctors but it is well above the median. It is also considerably higher than the nearest comparable system, Sweden, which has a nationalised system unlike most other "mixed economy" health systems
Additionally UK doctors have the safest jobs than any other walk of life, even by public sector standards. It is almost impossible to sack a hospital doctor in the NHS, even when they are incompetent. They also have highly lucrative pension schemes which see them retire on pensions that give them a take home payment that is in excess of double what the average taxpayer earns, and hospital consultants often also have lucrative private practices that are effectively conflicts of interest, but the NHS turns a blind eye to it.
Most so-called "junior" doctors (those below consultant level) earn salaries that are very comparative to other non-partner level professionals such as lawyers and accountants that are outside the distorted salaries found in London.
As for GPs: they are raking it in! The reality is that if doctors were a little less greedy there would be the possibility to be more generous to other health professionals who are probably underpaid.
In summary, those that are swallowing the line of the doctors unions that they are underpaid, I have a bridge to sell you.
BIB: that GPs are raking in £80,000 a year does not mean junior hospital doctors are not underpaid (or overworked or working antisocial hours).
As a junior analyst I worked from 7am to 10pm fairly often despite my contract hours being 8am to 5pm, I got paid fuck all to do it as well. Junior doctoring is exactly the same, short term shite while you're in your 20s so you can climb the earnings ladder and once you hit 30 you've got a substantial income.
If we're going to change the model to pay more at an earlier stage then pay later in medical careers needs to fall.
What I don't understand is why doctors think they should be treated any differently to other high yielding industry, all lawyers, financiers, analysts etc... will start on shit wages for long hours, it's called paying one's dues. Doctors seem to want to have their cake and eat it.
That's a reasonable point Max in general.
But in specific at the moment the previously already lower wages that junior doctors are getting paid aren't just being frozen in real terms, but a proposed substantial cut. While taxpayers money is going to pay others a double-digit rise, including the state pension of retired doctors on defined benefit schemes.
That's f***ed up is it not?
Should a retired doctor on a defined benefit scheme get a double-digit percentage increase in their state pension, while a junior doctor sees a nearly double-digit percentage cut in their real terms income from their already lower wage? Is that paying their dues?
Keeping lower wages flat, while other wages are flat, is entirely reasonable. But cutting some wages in real terms while increasing others by double digit percentages . . . that's a political choice, not necessity.
You have been admirably consistent about wanting a free market in labour. There is a free market for junior doctors in fact there is surplus demand. Hence by your own estimation, as indeed you have noted, wages should fall as they are competed downwards. They shouldn't rise.
Plus the NPV of a "junior doctors" wages is substantially higher than many others and as we know they are bright enough to have worked this out.
What happens to senior consultants or investment bankers is neither here nor there.
Absolutely Topping.
If there's more qualified job applicants for the junior doctors role to replace them, rather than pay what they're demanding, then I have no qualms with that being done. Sack the strikers and replace them with those equally qualified who are willing to do the job at the offered rate instead of a higher rate.
But I'm curious about what you mean by surplus demand meaning wages should fall? Surplus demand for junior doctors would mean the wage rises, surplus supply of people willing to do the job would mean a fall, and I'm not sure there's any evidence that there's surplus supply of people wanting and qualified to do that role.
If there is surplus supply, let the market do its thing and let any who end up without a job consider how they might have acted differently. But I don't think there is.
I believe there is surplus demand for junior doctors jobs.
The surplus supply is for med school entry at 18. Medicine is one of the most over-subscribed courses. There needs to be a large expansion in med school places, which until recently have been opposed by the BMA because they quite like the scarcity.
Trend would say Labour's lead is a touch below 20% now where is was a bit above 20% in Sunak's early months. There is a definite movement now of perhaps 4% in the average lead. But the variation between pollsters and directions of travel from previous comparator are still all over the place.
Here is the reality on doctors' pay. The UK is not the highest payer in Europe for hospital doctors but it is well above the median. It is also considerably higher than the nearest comparable system, Sweden, which has a nationalised system unlike most other "mixed economy" health systems
Additionally UK doctors have the safest jobs than any other walk of life, even by public sector standards. It is almost impossible to sack a hospital doctor in the NHS, even when they are incompetent. They also have highly lucrative pension schemes which see them retire on pensions that give them a take home payment that is in excess of double what the average taxpayer earns, and hospital consultants often also have lucrative private practices that are effectively conflicts of interest, but the NHS turns a blind eye to it.
Most so-called "junior" doctors (those below consultant level) earn salaries that are very comparative to other non-partner level professionals such as lawyers and accountants that are outside the distorted salaries found in London.
As for GPs: they are raking it in! The reality is that if doctors were a little less greedy there would be the possibility to be more generous to other health professionals who are probably underpaid.
In summary, those that are swallowing the line of the doctors unions that they are underpaid, I have a bridge to sell you.
BIB: that GPs are raking in £80,000 a year does not mean junior hospital doctors are not underpaid (or overworked or working antisocial hours).
As a junior analyst I worked from 7am to 10pm fairly often despite my contract hours being 8am to 5pm, I got paid fuck all to do it as well. Junior doctoring is exactly the same, short term shite while you're in your 20s so you can climb the earnings ladder and once you hit 30 you've got a substantial income.
If we're going to change the model to pay more at an earlier stage then pay later in medical careers needs to fall.
What I don't understand is why doctors think they should be treated any differently to other high yielding industry, all lawyers, financiers, analysts etc... will start on shit wages for long hours, it's called paying one's dues. Doctors seem to want to have their cake and eat it.
That's a reasonable point Max in general.
But in specific at the moment the previously already lower wages that junior doctors are getting paid aren't just being frozen in real terms, but a proposed substantial cut. While taxpayers money is going to pay others a double-digit rise, including the state pension of retired doctors on defined benefit schemes.
That's f***ed up is it not?
Should a retired doctor on a defined benefit scheme get a double-digit percentage increase in their state pension, while a junior doctor sees a nearly double-digit percentage cut in their real terms income from their already lower wage? Is that paying their dues?
Keeping lower wages flat, while other wages are flat, is entirely reasonable. But cutting some wages in real terms while increasing others by double digit percentages . . . that's a political choice, not necessity.
You have been admirably consistent about wanting a free market in labour. There is a free market for junior doctors in fact there is surplus demand. Hence by your own estimation, as indeed you have noted, wages should fall as they are competed downwards. They shouldn't rise.
Plus the NPV of a "junior doctors" wages is substantially higher than many others and as we know they are bright enough to have worked this out.
What happens to senior consultants or investment bankers is neither here nor there.
Absolutely Topping.
If there's more qualified job applicants for the junior doctors role to replace them, rather than pay what they're demanding, then I have no qualms with that being done. Sack the strikers and replace them with those equally qualified who are willing to do the job at the offered rate instead of a higher rate.
But I'm curious about what you mean by surplus demand meaning wages should fall? Surplus demand for junior doctors would mean the wage rises, surplus supply of people willing to do the job would mean a fall, and I'm not sure there's any evidence that there's surplus supply of people wanting and qualified to do that role.
If there is surplus supply, let the market do its thing and let any who end up without a job consider how they might have acted differently. But I don't think there is.
I believe there is surplus demand for junior doctors jobs.
Not enough places at med school, rather than not enough wanting to become docs.
Anyway, on thread - surely not. Yousaf has all Nicola Sturgeon's negatives and none of her positives. I don't really see what consituency he appeals to.
Not my party, obviously, and I don't know the selectorate. But when other parties have elected leaders who don't necessarily speak to the wider electorate, they've done so because they represent an obvious strain of what that party believes. I would have thought the SNP equivalent would be more akin to Ash Regan. Yousaf strikes me as neither one to connect to the wider electorate nor one to boldly fight the battle for independence whatever public opinion believes.
The obvious strain of party belief which Regan represents belongs to Alba, the bleedin’ obvious evidence of which is that her official endorsements remain Cherry, Salmond and Murray.
Also: NB that the betting question is "next FM" not "next SNP leader".
If Forbes wins the leadership it’ll be interesting to see how the FM vote goes. I imagine the agreement with the Greens will be down the tubes, in that scenario would the Greens sit on their hands?
I still can't see any reason why there's a worse outcome for the new SNP leader than Sturgeon got in 2016 - elected by a minority with only a handful of votes for another candidate and mass abstentions from the opposition parties.
The new SNP leader might not have a majority, but nobody else will either.
Wasn't a minority. Exactrly 50%, the PO not normally voting unless it is tied.
Semantics, and arguably not very accurate semantics at that.
Your repeated argument of "the new SNP leader isn't necessarily going to be the new FM" relies on all other parties coalescing around a single candidate.
Come on.
We're not in Westminster. *There are separate votes for each candidate*.
That seems like a misleading description of the process.
As the result is valid, and as Nicola Sturgeon has received more votes than the total number of votes for the other candidate, I declare that Nicola Sturgeon is selected as the Parliament’s nominee for appointment as First Minister. As required by the Scotland Act 1998, I shall now recommend to Her Majesty that she appoint Nicola Sturgeon as the First Minister.
All the SNP MSPs are going to vote for the new SNP leader. What "other candidate" is going to get more votes?
Yesterday I read some posts on here that suggested the harsher people fleeing in dingys (sic) were treated the better Sunaks figures. It was written by someone who is apparently well versed in the Red Wall and Tory thinking. It seemed to be written approvingly though that's not important. But what a disgusting indictment of this country and the voters they attract.
I missed that comment, but I think its utterly preposterous and wrong and whoever said that knows absolutely nothing about the Red Wall.
Certain commentators on this site, especially some who live in the South in deepest blue territory, seem to project their own prejudices onto the North/Red Wall.
As someone who lives up here may I reject them all. There are a small minority of racists in the North, like there are everywhere else, but that is not what the Red Wall is and its not the North. Anyone who is saying that is not well versed whatsoever in the Red Wall and has almost certainly never lived here, never campaigned here, and never knocked up voters here.
FPT. Sorry I wasn't able to reply. I like your sentiments but the proof of the pudding is in the Prime Minister's appointment of Suella Braverman. Her statements about the people in dinghies have been pretty disgusting yet considered to be just what the Red Wallers want to hear to bring them back on side. If they were unattractive to that vital voting block I'm sure Sunak would have removed her.
Or Sunak recognises that the Red Wall could be lost either way and Suella is there to appeal to more traditionally blue seats to keep them happy and in the blue column.
The kind of seats from which all these comments projecting onto the Red Wall their own prejudices seem to be coming from anyway.
I can't think of a single commentator on this site from a Red Wall seat who is expressing those views or endorsing Suella Braverman. Those who seem to be doing so, seem to be in more typically safe blue seats than Red Wall seats.
Red Wall has become a flippant byline for people's own prejudices rather than thinking seriously about what people here actually want.
Redwall Leave seats are more anti immigration than Remain or soft Leave Bluewall seats, as the polling shows
Anyway, on thread - surely not. Yousaf has all Nicola Sturgeon's negatives and none of her positives. I don't really see what consituency he appeals to.
Not my party, obviously, and I don't know the selectorate. But when other parties have elected leaders who don't necessarily speak to the wider electorate, they've done so because they represent an obvious strain of what that party believes. I would have thought the SNP equivalent would be more akin to Ash Regan. Yousaf strikes me as neither one to connect to the wider electorate nor one to boldly fight the battle for independence whatever public opinion believes.
It beggars belief given it is supposed to be party of independence and only Regan has any real interest in it
First item is the coming transport strikes in Germany on Monday. Second: the EU summit discussing rules on when the sale ICE cars will be banned, and the banking crisis. Third: war in Ukraine. Fourth: arguments about the funding of future corona vaccinations in Germany. Fifth: the financial markets. Sixth: state of high-speed internet in Germany. Seventh: Ramadan in Germany. Eighth: Bayern reportedly parting with Nagelsmann.
Anyway, on thread - surely not. Yousaf has all Nicola Sturgeon's negatives and none of her positives. I don't really see what consituency he appeals to.
Not my party, obviously, and I don't know the selectorate. But when other parties have elected leaders who don't necessarily speak to the wider electorate, they've done so because they represent an obvious strain of what that party believes. I would have thought the SNP equivalent would be more akin to Ash Regan. Yousaf strikes me as neither one to connect to the wider electorate nor one to boldly fight the battle for independence whatever public opinion believes.
The obvious strain of party belief which Regan represents belongs to Alba, the bleedin’ obvious evidence of which is that her official endorsements remain Cherry, Salmond and Murray.
Also: NB that the betting question is "next FM" not "next SNP leader".
If Forbes wins the leadership it’ll be interesting to see how the FM vote goes. I imagine the agreement with the Greens will be down the tubes, in that scenario would the Greens sit on their hands?
I still can't see any reason why there's a worse outcome for the new SNP leader than Sturgeon got in 2016 - elected by a minority with only a handful of votes for another candidate and mass abstentions from the opposition parties.
The new SNP leader might not have a majority, but nobody else will either.
Wasn't a minority. Exactrly 50%, the PO not normally voting unless it is tied.
Semantics, and arguably not very accurate semantics at that.
Your repeated argument of "the new SNP leader isn't necessarily going to be the new FM" relies on all other parties coalescing around a single candidate.
Come on.
We're not in Westminster. *There are separate votes for each candidate*.
That seems like a misleading description of the process.
As the result is valid, and as Nicola Sturgeon has received more votes than the total number of votes for the other candidate, I declare that Nicola Sturgeon is selected as the Parliament’s nominee for appointment as First Minister. As required by the Scotland Act 1998, I shall now recommend to Her Majesty that she appoint Nicola Sturgeon as the First Minister.
All the SNP MSPs are going to vote for the new SNP leader. What "other candidate" is going to get more votes?
Nevertheless, it's true (I checked). It's possible for abstentions or illness to happen in any party. And people do not, so far as I can see, have to be consistent in their voting.
Here is the reality on doctors' pay. The UK is not the highest payer in Europe for hospital doctors but it is well above the median. It is also considerably higher than the nearest comparable system, Sweden, which has a nationalised system unlike most other "mixed economy" health systems
Additionally UK doctors have the safest jobs than any other walk of life, even by public sector standards. It is almost impossible to sack a hospital doctor in the NHS, even when they are incompetent. They also have highly lucrative pension schemes which see them retire on pensions that give them a take home payment that is in excess of double what the average taxpayer earns, and hospital consultants often also have lucrative private practices that are effectively conflicts of interest, but the NHS turns a blind eye to it.
Most so-called "junior" doctors (those below consultant level) earn salaries that are very comparative to other non-partner level professionals such as lawyers and accountants that are outside the distorted salaries found in London.
As for GPs: they are raking it in! The reality is that if doctors were a little less greedy there would be the possibility to be more generous to other health professionals who are probably underpaid.
In summary, those that are swallowing the line of the doctors unions that they are underpaid, I have a bridge to sell you.
BIB: that GPs are raking in £80,000 a year does not mean junior hospital doctors are not underpaid (or overworked or working antisocial hours).
As a junior analyst I worked from 7am to 10pm fairly often despite my contract hours being 8am to 5pm, I got paid fuck all to do it as well. Junior doctoring is exactly the same, short term shite while you're in your 20s so you can climb the earnings ladder and once you hit 30 you've got a substantial income.
If we're going to change the model to pay more at an earlier stage then pay later in medical careers needs to fall.
What I don't understand is why doctors think they should be treated any differently to other high yielding industry, all lawyers, financiers, analysts etc... will start on shit wages for long hours, it's called paying one's dues. Doctors seem to want to have their cake and eat it.
That's a reasonable point Max in general.
But in specific at the moment the previously already lower wages that junior doctors are getting paid aren't just being frozen in real terms, but a proposed substantial cut. While taxpayers money is going to pay others a double-digit rise, including the state pension of retired doctors on defined benefit schemes.
That's f***ed up is it not?
Should a retired doctor on a defined benefit scheme get a double-digit percentage increase in their state pension, while a junior doctor sees a nearly double-digit percentage cut in their real terms income from their already lower wage? Is that paying their dues?
Keeping lower wages flat, while other wages are flat, is entirely reasonable. But cutting some wages in real terms while increasing others by double digit percentages . . . that's a political choice, not necessity.
You have been admirably consistent about wanting a free market in labour. There is a free market for junior doctors in fact there is surplus demand. Hence by your own estimation, as indeed you have noted, wages should fall as they are competed downwards. They shouldn't rise.
Plus the NPV of a "junior doctors" wages is substantially higher than many others and as we know they are bright enough to have worked this out.
What happens to senior consultants or investment bankers is neither here nor there.
Absolutely Topping.
If there's more qualified job applicants for the junior doctors role to replace them, rather than pay what they're demanding, then I have no qualms with that being done. Sack the strikers and replace them with those equally qualified who are willing to do the job at the offered rate instead of a higher rate.
But I'm curious about what you mean by surplus demand meaning wages should fall? Surplus demand for junior doctors would mean the wage rises, surplus supply of people willing to do the job would mean a fall, and I'm not sure there's any evidence that there's surplus supply of people wanting and qualified to do that role.
If there is surplus supply, let the market do its thing and let any who end up without a job consider how they might have acted differently. But I don't think there is.
I believe there is surplus demand for junior doctors jobs.
I see no evidence for that. If there is, then hire the applicants.
I believe there is surplus demand for medical school places, but that is essentially a limiter preventing a surplus supply of potential junior doctors from existing.
If you want to increase the supply of potential junior doctors then expanding medical schools would be an option, but that would take time and money that is not in place today. To be a Junior Doctor requires you to be qualified for that role, not simply a medical school applicant.
Anyway, on thread - surely not. Yousaf has all Nicola Sturgeon's negatives and none of her positives. I don't really see what consituency he appeals to.
Not my party, obviously, and I don't know the selectorate. But when other parties have elected leaders who don't necessarily speak to the wider electorate, they've done so because they represent an obvious strain of what that party believes. I would have thought the SNP equivalent would be more akin to Ash Regan. Yousaf strikes me as neither one to connect to the wider electorate nor one to boldly fight the battle for independence whatever public opinion believes.
The obvious strain of party belief which Regan represents belongs to Alba, the bleedin’ obvious evidence of which is that her official endorsements remain Cherry, Salmond and Murray.
Also: NB that the betting question is "next FM" not "next SNP leader".
If Forbes wins the leadership it’ll be interesting to see how the FM vote goes. I imagine the agreement with the Greens will be down the tubes, in that scenario would the Greens sit on their hands?
I still can't see any reason why there's a worse outcome for the new SNP leader than Sturgeon got in 2016 - elected by a minority with only a handful of votes for another candidate and mass abstentions from the opposition parties.
The new SNP leader might not have a majority, but nobody else will either.
Wasn't a minority. Exactrly 50%, the PO not normally voting unless it is tied.
Semantics, and arguably not very accurate semantics at that.
Your repeated argument of "the new SNP leader isn't necessarily going to be the new FM" relies on all other parties coalescing around a single candidate.
Come on.
We're not in Westminster. *There are separate votes for each candidate*.
That seems like a misleading description of the process.
As the result is valid, and as Nicola Sturgeon has received more votes than the total number of votes for the other candidate, I declare that Nicola Sturgeon is selected as the Parliament’s nominee for appointment as First Minister. As required by the Scotland Act 1998, I shall now recommend to Her Majesty that she appoint Nicola Sturgeon as the First Minister.
All the SNP MSPs are going to vote for the new SNP leader. What "other candidate" is going to get more votes?
Nevertheless, it's true (I checked). It's possible for abstentions or illness to happen in any party. And people do not, so far as I can see, have to be consistent in their voting.
I literally checked the Official Report from 2016. There are "separate votes" only in the sense that MSPs aren't given a ballot paper with options "SNP leader, token opposition party candidate, abstain", they vote electronically sequentially for one of the options.
In the real world, all SNP MSPs are going to vote for the new SNP leader to be FM and no other single candidate is going to get enough votes to overcome that. Why are you wasting time denying the obvious?
Here is the reality on doctors' pay. The UK is not the highest payer in Europe for hospital doctors but it is well above the median. It is also considerably higher than the nearest comparable system, Sweden, which has a nationalised system unlike most other "mixed economy" health systems
Additionally UK doctors have the safest jobs than any other walk of life, even by public sector standards. It is almost impossible to sack a hospital doctor in the NHS, even when they are incompetent. They also have highly lucrative pension schemes which see them retire on pensions that give them a take home payment that is in excess of double what the average taxpayer earns, and hospital consultants often also have lucrative private practices that are effectively conflicts of interest, but the NHS turns a blind eye to it.
Most so-called "junior" doctors (those below consultant level) earn salaries that are very comparative to other non-partner level professionals such as lawyers and accountants that are outside the distorted salaries found in London.
As for GPs: they are raking it in! The reality is that if doctors were a little less greedy there would be the possibility to be more generous to other health professionals who are probably underpaid.
In summary, those that are swallowing the line of the doctors unions that they are underpaid, I have a bridge to sell you.
BIB: that GPs are raking in £80,000 a year does not mean junior hospital doctors are not underpaid (or overworked or working antisocial hours).
As a junior analyst I worked from 7am to 10pm fairly often despite my contract hours being 8am to 5pm, I got paid fuck all to do it as well. Junior doctoring is exactly the same, short term shite while you're in your 20s so you can climb the earnings ladder and once you hit 30 you've got a substantial income.
If we're going to change the model to pay more at an earlier stage then pay later in medical careers needs to fall.
What I don't understand is why doctors think they should be treated any differently to other high yielding industry, all lawyers, financiers, analysts etc... will start on shit wages for long hours, it's called paying one's dues. Doctors seem to want to have their cake and eat it.
That's a reasonable point Max in general.
But in specific at the moment the previously already lower wages that junior doctors are getting paid aren't just being frozen in real terms, but a proposed substantial cut. While taxpayers money is going to pay others a double-digit rise, including the state pension of retired doctors on defined benefit schemes.
That's f***ed up is it not?
Should a retired doctor on a defined benefit scheme get a double-digit percentage increase in their state pension, while a junior doctor sees a nearly double-digit percentage cut in their real terms income from their already lower wage? Is that paying their dues?
Keeping lower wages flat, while other wages are flat, is entirely reasonable. But cutting some wages in real terms while increasing others by double digit percentages . . . that's a political choice, not necessity.
You have been admirably consistent about wanting a free market in labour. There is a free market for junior doctors in fact there is surplus demand. Hence by your own estimation, as indeed you have noted, wages should fall as they are competed downwards. They shouldn't rise.
Plus the NPV of a "junior doctors" wages is substantially higher than many others and as we know they are bright enough to have worked this out.
What happens to senior consultants or investment bankers is neither here nor there.
But it's not a free market, there has been surplus demand for doctors for going on 30 years and yet supply of doctors has been held down artificially by the state.
I've already said it many times, it's time for the government to lift the cap on medical school places so universities and hospitals can train as many doctors as are necessary and then we'll see what the NPV of doctoring actually is, if it turns out we train too many we end up becoming a next exporter of doctors for a while until the NPV rises again.
I wonder how many of them have, within the last five years, prosecuted a handler/ABH/possession/shop lifter/glassing at Snaresbrook Crown Court, or indeed anywhere.
(Apropos of nothing: Apocryphal judge: "You leave this court with no stain on your character save that of an acquittal by a Snaresbrook jury")
Quite right too. If they are investigating him, it is proof that they are corrupt.
Bad people. Very bad people. DRAIN THE SWAMP!
To be fair to Trump (yes, I know), the prosecutor he’s been arguing with this week is an elected Democrat from New York, whose manifesto was basically we’ll get the bad orange man. Mixing politics and law like this, is pretty much always a bad idea.
It does now appear that the Grand Jury can’t be convinced to issue charges, in this particular case anyway.
America is absurd the way it has prosecutors and police chiefs elected. So yes of course it looks corrupt that a democrat is the prosecutor. And it is! But does that mean the Donald is innocent?
Anyway, on thread - surely not. Yousaf has all Nicola Sturgeon's negatives and none of her positives. I don't really see what consituency he appeals to.
Not my party, obviously, and I don't know the selectorate. But when other parties have elected leaders who don't necessarily speak to the wider electorate, they've done so because they represent an obvious strain of what that party believes. I would have thought the SNP equivalent would be more akin to Ash Regan. Yousaf strikes me as neither one to connect to the wider electorate nor one to boldly fight the battle for independence whatever public opinion believes.
The obvious strain of party belief which Regan represents belongs to Alba, the bleedin’ obvious evidence of which is that her official endorsements remain Cherry, Salmond and Murray.
Also: NB that the betting question is "next FM" not "next SNP leader".
If Forbes wins the leadership it’ll be interesting to see how the FM vote goes. I imagine the agreement with the Greens will be down the tubes, in that scenario would the Greens sit on their hands?
I still can't see any reason why there's a worse outcome for the new SNP leader than Sturgeon got in 2016 - elected by a minority with only a handful of votes for another candidate and mass abstentions from the opposition parties.
The new SNP leader might not have a majority, but nobody else will either.
Wasn't a minority. Exactrly 50%, the PO not normally voting unless it is tied.
Semantics, and arguably not very accurate semantics at that.
Your repeated argument of "the new SNP leader isn't necessarily going to be the new FM" relies on all other parties coalescing around a single candidate.
Come on.
We're not in Westminster. *There are separate votes for each candidate*.
That seems like a misleading description of the process.
As the result is valid, and as Nicola Sturgeon has received more votes than the total number of votes for the other candidate, I declare that Nicola Sturgeon is selected as the Parliament’s nominee for appointment as First Minister. As required by the Scotland Act 1998, I shall now recommend to Her Majesty that she appoint Nicola Sturgeon as the First Minister.
All the SNP MSPs are going to vote for the new SNP leader. What "other candidate" is going to get more votes?
Nevertheless, it's true (I checked). It's possible for abstentions or illness to happen in any party. And people do not, so far as I can see, have to be consistent in their voting.
I literally checked the Official Report from 2016. There are "separate votes" only in the sense that MSPs aren't given a ballot paper with options "SNP leader, token opposition party candidate, abstain", they vote electronically sequentially for one of the options.
In the real world, all SNP MSPs are going to vote for the new SNP leader to be FM and no other single candidate is going to get enough votes to overcome that. Why are you wasting time denying the obvious?
You seem to have wasted an awful lot of time on a parliamentary process in a country not your own.
Anyway, on thread - surely not. Yousaf has all Nicola Sturgeon's negatives and none of her positives. I don't really see what consituency he appeals to.
Not my party, obviously, and I don't know the selectorate. But when other parties have elected leaders who don't necessarily speak to the wider electorate, they've done so because they represent an obvious strain of what that party believes. I would have thought the SNP equivalent would be more akin to Ash Regan. Yousaf strikes me as neither one to connect to the wider electorate nor one to boldly fight the battle for independence whatever public opinion believes.
The obvious strain of party belief which Regan represents belongs to Alba, the bleedin’ obvious evidence of which is that her official endorsements remain Cherry, Salmond and Murray.
Also: NB that the betting question is "next FM" not "next SNP leader".
If Forbes wins the leadership it’ll be interesting to see how the FM vote goes. I imagine the agreement with the Greens will be down the tubes, in that scenario would the Greens sit on their hands?
I still can't see any reason why there's a worse outcome for the new SNP leader than Sturgeon got in 2016 - elected by a minority with only a handful of votes for another candidate and mass abstentions from the opposition parties.
The new SNP leader might not have a majority, but nobody else will either.
Wasn't a minority. Exactrly 50%, the PO not normally voting unless it is tied.
Semantics, and arguably not very accurate semantics at that.
Your repeated argument of "the new SNP leader isn't necessarily going to be the new FM" relies on all other parties coalescing around a single candidate.
Come on.
We're not in Westminster. *There are separate votes for each candidate*.
That seems like a misleading description of the process.
As the result is valid, and as Nicola Sturgeon has received more votes than the total number of votes for the other candidate, I declare that Nicola Sturgeon is selected as the Parliament’s nominee for appointment as First Minister. As required by the Scotland Act 1998, I shall now recommend to Her Majesty that she appoint Nicola Sturgeon as the First Minister.
All the SNP MSPs are going to vote for the new SNP leader. What "other candidate" is going to get more votes?
Nevertheless, it's true (I checked). It's possible for abstentions or illness to happen in any party. And people do not, so far as I can see, have to be consistent in their voting.
I literally checked the Official Report from 2016. There are "separate votes" only in the sense that MSPs aren't given a ballot paper with options "SNP leader, token opposition party candidate, abstain", they vote electronically sequentially for one of the options.
In the real world, all SNP MSPs are going to vote for the new SNP leader to be FM and no other single candidate is going to get enough votes to overcome that. Why are you wasting time denying the obvious?
That depends on how many SNP MPs there are once the new leader is elected, and then how many are present and willing to vote; and ditto which way the Greens vote, if at all. Unlike Westminster, there is such a thing as a Green + Unionist Coalition phenomenon, as has happened before on occasion, notably the Edinburgh Trams. The Greens [edit: and the Edinburgh Labour and LD folk] wabnted the trams,. the Unionists saw it as an opportunity to wreck things. ,
Anyway, on thread - surely not. Yousaf has all Nicola Sturgeon's negatives and none of her positives. I don't really see what consituency he appeals to.
Not my party, obviously, and I don't know the selectorate. But when other parties have elected leaders who don't necessarily speak to the wider electorate, they've done so because they represent an obvious strain of what that party believes. I would have thought the SNP equivalent would be more akin to Ash Regan. Yousaf strikes me as neither one to connect to the wider electorate nor one to boldly fight the battle for independence whatever public opinion believes.
It beggars belief given it is supposed to be party of independence and only Regan has any real interest in it
Surely they all have real interest in it? The basic problem remains that not enough voters share that interest. And unless you can move people from no to yes, you are left howling at the moon.
From what I saw Forbes gets this rather simple concept and the others don't.
Quite right too. If they are investigating him, it is proof that they are corrupt.
Bad people. Very bad people. DRAIN THE SWAMP!
To be fair to Trump (yes, I know), the prosecutor he’s been arguing with this week is an elected Democrat from New York, whose manifesto was basically we’ll get the bad orange man. Mixing politics and law like this, is pretty much always a bad idea.
It does now appear that the Grand Jury can’t be convinced to issue charges, in this particular case anyway.
America is absurd the way it has prosecutors and police chiefs elected. So yes of course it looks corrupt that a democrat is the prosecutor. And it is! But does that mean the Donald is innocent?
What is corrupt about this investigation at all? Its rubbish that the man was elected on a "get Trump" platform. This is the sort of shit conservatives just make up.
First item is the coming transport strikes in Germany on Monday. Second: the EU summit discussing rules on when the sale ICE cars will be banned, and the banking crisis. Third: war in Ukraine. Fourth: arguments about the funding of future corona vaccinations in Germany. Fifth: the financial markets. Sixth: state of high-speed internet in Germany. Seventh: Ramadan in Germany. Eighth: Bayern reportedly parting with Nagelsmann.
That cannot be right; the UK is the center of the known universe.
Here is the reality on doctors' pay. The UK is not the highest payer in Europe for hospital doctors but it is well above the median. It is also considerably higher than the nearest comparable system, Sweden, which has a nationalised system unlike most other "mixed economy" health systems
Additionally UK doctors have the safest jobs than any other walk of life, even by public sector standards. It is almost impossible to sack a hospital doctor in the NHS, even when they are incompetent. They also have highly lucrative pension schemes which see them retire on pensions that give them a take home payment that is in excess of double what the average taxpayer earns, and hospital consultants often also have lucrative private practices that are effectively conflicts of interest, but the NHS turns a blind eye to it.
Most so-called "junior" doctors (those below consultant level) earn salaries that are very comparative to other non-partner level professionals such as lawyers and accountants that are outside the distorted salaries found in London.
As for GPs: they are raking it in! The reality is that if doctors were a little less greedy there would be the possibility to be more generous to other health professionals who are probably underpaid.
In summary, those that are swallowing the line of the doctors unions that they are underpaid, I have a bridge to sell you.
BIB: that GPs are raking in £80,000 a year does not mean junior hospital doctors are not underpaid (or overworked or working antisocial hours).
As a junior analyst I worked from 7am to 10pm fairly often despite my contract hours being 8am to 5pm, I got paid fuck all to do it as well. Junior doctoring is exactly the same, short term shite while you're in your 20s so you can climb the earnings ladder and once you hit 30 you've got a substantial income.
If we're going to change the model to pay more at an earlier stage then pay later in medical careers needs to fall.
What I don't understand is why doctors think they should be treated any differently to other high yielding industry, all lawyers, financiers, analysts etc... will start on shit wages for long hours, it's called paying one's dues. Doctors seem to want to have their cake and eat it.
That's a reasonable point Max in general.
But in specific at the moment the previously already lower wages that junior doctors are getting paid aren't just being frozen in real terms, but a proposed substantial cut. While taxpayers money is going to pay others a double-digit rise, including the state pension of retired doctors on defined benefit schemes.
That's f***ed up is it not?
Should a retired doctor on a defined benefit scheme get a double-digit percentage increase in their state pension, while a junior doctor sees a nearly double-digit percentage cut in their real terms income from their already lower wage? Is that paying their dues?
Keeping lower wages flat, while other wages are flat, is entirely reasonable. But cutting some wages in real terms while increasing others by double digit percentages . . . that's a political choice, not necessity.
You have been admirably consistent about wanting a free market in labour. There is a free market for junior doctors in fact there is surplus demand. Hence by your own estimation, as indeed you have noted, wages should fall as they are competed downwards. They shouldn't rise.
Plus the NPV of a "junior doctors" wages is substantially higher than many others and as we know they are bright enough to have worked this out.
What happens to senior consultants or investment bankers is neither here nor there.
But it's not a free market, there has been surplus demand for doctors for going on 30 years and yet supply of doctors has been held down artificially by the state.
I've already said it many times, it's time for the government to lift the cap on medical school places so universities and hospitals can train as many doctors as are necessary and then we'll see what the NPV of doctoring actually is, if it turns out we train too many we end up becoming a next exporter of doctors for a while until the NPV rises again.
Medical degrees are very expensive, so there is actually a subsidy there. I think tuition costs should actually be increased and you only get them paid off if you work for the NHS for 10 years. And of course the state monopsony keeps pay down.
If you want to look at a free market in doctors looks like for pay, it is the USA.
Whoever wins on Monday it is likely all downhill for the SNP and all uphill for Scottish Labour.
A new Scottish Ipsos poll for the Times gives Sturgeon a still healthy +8% rating. Forbes though is on -8%, behind Scottish Labour Leader Sarwar on -4%.
Yousaf is on an abysmal -20% with Scottish voters and Regan an even worse -23%. Sir Keir by contrast is on -9% with Scots
Sturgeon’s approval went up, but then it’s easy to think well of someone on their way out. Haven’t we seen these boosts in approval ratings for departing politicians before?
Equally, whatever their approval ratings now, whoever becomes the new FM will immediately be seen differently. I suspect the winner will see some boost in his or her ratings.
Quite right too. If they are investigating him, it is proof that they are corrupt.
Bad people. Very bad people. DRAIN THE SWAMP!
To be fair to Trump (yes, I know), the prosecutor he’s been arguing with this week is an elected Democrat from New York, whose manifesto was basically we’ll get the bad orange man. Mixing politics and law like this, is pretty much always a bad idea.
It does now appear that the Grand Jury can’t be convinced to issue charges, in this particular case anyway.
America is absurd the way it has prosecutors and police chiefs elected. So yes of course it looks corrupt that a democrat is the prosecutor. And it is! But does that mean the Donald is innocent?
Quite. Some people have outright stated that even if an ex-President were guilty of an offence which might carry jail time they should not be charged, despite fig leaf talk about no one being above the law. Some paint it as inevitabily a political stitch up, yet if they think that why have the system they do?.
It certainly is going to be true that some of the cases will be stronger than others and political DAs might try their luck - this New York one actually looks rather tricky to prove beyond a reasonable doubt. But there is legal recourse to deal with that sort of thing, it would not make its way through when there is money and clout fighting anything insufficient.
Here is the reality on doctors' pay. The UK is not the highest payer in Europe for hospital doctors but it is well above the median. It is also considerably higher than the nearest comparable system, Sweden, which has a nationalised system unlike most other "mixed economy" health systems
Additionally UK doctors have the safest jobs than any other walk of life, even by public sector standards. It is almost impossible to sack a hospital doctor in the NHS, even when they are incompetent. They also have highly lucrative pension schemes which see them retire on pensions that give them a take home payment that is in excess of double what the average taxpayer earns, and hospital consultants often also have lucrative private practices that are effectively conflicts of interest, but the NHS turns a blind eye to it.
Most so-called "junior" doctors (those below consultant level) earn salaries that are very comparative to other non-partner level professionals such as lawyers and accountants that are outside the distorted salaries found in London.
As for GPs: they are raking it in! The reality is that if doctors were a little less greedy there would be the possibility to be more generous to other health professionals who are probably underpaid.
In summary, those that are swallowing the line of the doctors unions that they are underpaid, I have a bridge to sell you.
BIB: that GPs are raking in £80,000 a year does not mean junior hospital doctors are not underpaid (or overworked or working antisocial hours).
As a junior analyst I worked from 7am to 10pm fairly often despite my contract hours being 8am to 5pm, I got paid fuck all to do it as well. Junior doctoring is exactly the same, short term shite while you're in your 20s so you can climb the earnings ladder and once you hit 30 you've got a substantial income.
If we're going to change the model to pay more at an earlier stage then pay later in medical careers needs to fall.
What I don't understand is why doctors think they should be treated any differently to other high yielding industry, all lawyers, financiers, analysts etc... will start on shit wages for long hours, it's called paying one's dues. Doctors seem to want to have their cake and eat it.
That's a reasonable point Max in general.
But in specific at the moment the previously already lower wages that junior doctors are getting paid aren't just being frozen in real terms, but a proposed substantial cut. While taxpayers money is going to pay others a double-digit rise, including the state pension of retired doctors on defined benefit schemes.
That's f***ed up is it not?
Should a retired doctor on a defined benefit scheme get a double-digit percentage increase in their state pension, while a junior doctor sees a nearly double-digit percentage cut in their real terms income from their already lower wage? Is that paying their dues?
Keeping lower wages flat, while other wages are flat, is entirely reasonable. But cutting some wages in real terms while increasing others by double digit percentages . . . that's a political choice, not necessity.
You have been admirably consistent about wanting a free market in labour. There is a free market for junior doctors in fact there is surplus demand. Hence by your own estimation, as indeed you have noted, wages should fall as they are competed downwards. They shouldn't rise.
Plus the NPV of a "junior doctors" wages is substantially higher than many others and as we know they are bright enough to have worked this out.
What happens to senior consultants or investment bankers is neither here nor there.
Absolutely Topping.
If there's more qualified job applicants for the junior doctors role to replace them, rather than pay what they're demanding, then I have no qualms with that being done. Sack the strikers and replace them with those equally qualified who are willing to do the job at the offered rate instead of a higher rate.
But I'm curious about what you mean by surplus demand meaning wages should fall? Surplus demand for junior doctors would mean the wage rises, surplus supply of people willing to do the job would mean a fall, and I'm not sure there's any evidence that there's surplus supply of people wanting and qualified to do that role.
If there is surplus supply, let the market do its thing and let any who end up without a job consider how they might have acted differently. But I don't think there is.
I believe there is surplus demand for junior doctors jobs.
I see no evidence for that. If there is, then hire the applicants.
I believe there is surplus demand for medical school places, but that is essentially a limiter preventing a surplus supply of potential junior doctors from existing.
If you want to increase the supply of potential junior doctors then expanding medical schools would be an option, but that would take time and money that is not in place today. To be a Junior Doctor requires you to be qualified for that role, not simply a medical school applicant.
I've got half a memory of @Foxy saying that a very large percentage of realistic medical school applicants get a place in the end, though it takes some two goes.
But ultimately, a medical degree is expensive to deliver, and the benefits to the NHS arrive around a decade later.
And we have a political system and culture that favours spending money on us now.
Comments
Not my party, obviously, and I don't know the selectorate. But when other parties have elected leaders who don't necessarily speak to the wider electorate, they've done so because they represent an obvious strain of what that party believes. I would have thought the SNP equivalent would be more akin to Ash Regan. Yousaf strikes me as neither one to connect to the wider electorate nor one to boldly fight the battle for independence whatever public opinion believes.
For example:
https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/3907413-senate-republican-says-desantis-ukraine-remark-may-very-well-be-primary-politics/amp/
If nothing else, it does differentiate him from Trump.
Though if he's going to have any chance of the nomination, he'll have to take Trump on directly, rather than avoiding the confrontation as he's done up until now.
Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 49% (+3)
CON: 23% (-4)
LDEM: 10% (-1)
GRN: 6% (-)
REF: 6% (-)
via
@YouGov
, this week
But in specific at the moment the previously already lower wages that junior doctors are getting paid aren't just being frozen in real terms, but a proposed substantial cut. While taxpayers money is going to pay others a double-digit rise, including the state pension of retired doctors on defined benefit schemes.
That's f***ed up is it not?
Should a retired doctor on a defined benefit scheme get a double-digit percentage increase in their state pension, while a junior doctor sees a nearly double-digit percentage cut in their real terms income from their already lower wage? Is that paying their dues?
Keeping lower wages flat, while other wages are flat, is entirely reasonable. But cutting some wages in real terms while increasing others by double digit percentages . . . that's a political choice, not necessity.
I don't think Forbes is impossible, but I don't understand Scottish politics - except that she is an obvious and stand out star. But then so was Boris.
Plus the NPV of a "junior doctors" wages is substantially higher than many others and as we know they are bright enough to have worked this out.
What happens to senior consultants or investment bankers is neither here nor there.
If I recall correctly we all went 'huh' and carried on.
That showed the Government we would not be pushed around...
https://twitter.com/VigJimmy/status/1639218632134893572?s=20
The obvious strain of party belief which Regan represents belongs to Alba, the bleedin’ obvious evidence of which is that her official endorsements remain Cherry, Salmond and Murray.
So like the UK, Scotland would have a darkie with the whip hand over the white man.
But someone will get the job.
If RDS wants to stand for the top job (and I’m still not sure he’s going for it in 2024, rather than waiting for 2028), then he’ll need to be spending a lot more time researching and getting briefings on world affairs.
Remains to be seen how good those adjustments are, but for habitual voters who don't know, the same vote as last time (at least for a fair minority) could be likely. The catch might be any rare voters who turned out last time for Boris and Brexit and might simply not bother this time.
https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=347689
It's taken longer (& probably cost more) for us to not deliver Ajax.
Looks pretty standard for military procurement.
Which will have very little influence at all on what he actually might do.
Though the Ukraine war has demonstrated, once again, that when the politics and other bullshit are out of the way, weapons procurement can go very fast.
See land launched Brimstone for Ukraine.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/KAI_KF-21_Boramae
If there's more qualified job applicants for the junior doctors role to replace them, rather than pay what they're demanding, then I have no qualms with that being done. Sack the strikers and replace them with those equally qualified who are willing to do the job at the offered rate instead of a higher rate.
But I'm curious about what you mean by surplus demand meaning wages should fall? Surplus demand for junior doctors would mean the wage rises, surplus supply of people willing to do the job would mean a fall, and I'm not sure there's any evidence that there's surplus supply of people wanting and qualified to do that role.
If there is surplus supply, let the market do its thing and let any who end up without a job consider how they might have acted differently. But I don't think there is.
edit: normally Ms J would cast her vote for the status quo.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/deutsche-bank-shares-slide-9-after-sudden-spike-in-the-cost-of-insuring-against-its-default/ar-AA191tDQ
That won’t happen when there’s an actual war going on, it will be a case of we’ll take what can be delivered yesterday, and make it work in the field.
Hopefully, this war has been a wake-up call to Europe, about the need to be less reliant on the US. No matter who is the next President, the States will in future be looking more to China than Russia as the enemy,
Europe will have a few years though, there’s pretty much nothing left of the Russian army at the moment. They are already pulling T-55 tanks out of museums, by the summer they’ll be pulling T-33s off WWII memorials.
The German government would do anything to prevent DB going down. Anything.
https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/3914607-trump-calls-for-removal-of-every-top-official-investigating-him/
The German government won’t let it happen though, and the EU will be told to get off should they try and intervene.
Not because I want them to be, but because I suspect the spiral of silence is now even more pronounced than it was pre-Truss. It’s not exactly easy to say you support the government right now.
What I am not sure about is whether the relevant pollsters that are showing higher Tory ratings are adjusting more aggressively to counter that. I am sure someone more in tune with the methodology would be able to tell me!
The kind of seats from which all these comments projecting onto the Red Wall their own prejudices seem to be coming from anyway.
I can't think of a single commentator on this site from a Red Wall seat who is expressing those views or endorsing Suella Braverman. Those who seem to be doing so, seem to be in more typically safe blue seats than Red Wall seats.
Red Wall has become a flippant byline for people's own prejudices rather than thinking seriously about what people here actually want.
The new SNP leader might not have a majority, but nobody else will either.
It does now appear that the Grand Jury can’t be convinced to issue charges, in this particular case anyway.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/mediacentre/statements/bbc-singers-funding
Your repeated argument of "the new SNP leader isn't necessarily going to be the new FM" relies on all other parties coalescing around a single candidate.
Come on.
The problem was always that they don't care and vote for them anyway.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/mar/24/top-lawyers-defy-bar-declare-will-not-prosecute-peaceful-climate-protesters
A new Scottish Ipsos poll for the Times gives Sturgeon a still healthy +8% rating. Forbes though is on -8%, behind Scottish Labour Leader Sarwar on -4%.
Yousaf is on an abysmal -20% with Scottish voters and Regan an even
worse -23%. Sir Keir by contrast is on -9% with Scots
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/snp-leadership-candidates-unpopular-with-voters-gkxmj5hwj
https://www.parliament.scot/chamber-and-committees/official-report/search-what-was-said-in-parliament/meeting-of-parliament-17-05-2016?meeting=10450&iob=96268
As the result is valid, and as Nicola Sturgeon has received more votes than the total number of votes for the other candidate, I declare that Nicola Sturgeon is selected as the Parliament’s nominee for appointment as First Minister. As required by the Scotland Act 1998, I shall now recommend to Her Majesty that she appoint Nicola Sturgeon as the First Minister.
All the SNP MSPs are going to vote for the new SNP leader. What "other candidate" is going to get more votes?
Techne
Labour 46 -1
Conservative 31 +1
People polling
Labour 43 -2
Conservative 22 +2
Additionally the conservatives increased their vote share last night
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1639239824488972289?t=t2Q1mdiK-Kef9_kaVhEwdg&s=19
It seems their is an uptick for Sunak and his party but a long way to go
Well, there's a shock.
Here is the latest German news midday today:
https://www.tagesschau.de/sendung/letzte-sendung/
First item is the coming transport strikes in Germany on Monday.
Second: the EU summit discussing rules on when the sale ICE cars will be banned, and the banking crisis.
Third: war in Ukraine.
Fourth: arguments about the funding of future corona vaccinations in Germany.
Fifth: the financial markets.
Sixth: state of high-speed internet in Germany.
Seventh: Ramadan in Germany.
Eighth: Bayern reportedly parting with Nagelsmann.
I believe there is surplus demand for medical school places, but that is essentially a limiter preventing a surplus supply of potential junior doctors from existing.
If you want to increase the supply of potential junior doctors then expanding medical schools would be an option, but that would take time and money that is not in place today. To be a Junior Doctor requires you to be qualified for that role, not simply a medical school applicant.
If so, Keir Starmer must be the best lawyer ever. He's sold his soul to the devil and still swindled him.
In the real world, all SNP MSPs are going to vote for the new SNP leader to be FM and no other single candidate is going to get enough votes to overcome that. Why are you wasting time denying the obvious?
I've already said it many times, it's time for the government to lift the cap on medical school places so universities and hospitals can train as many doctors as are necessary and then we'll see what the NPV of doctoring actually is, if it turns out we train too many we end up becoming a next exporter of doctors for a while until the NPV rises again.
(Apropos of nothing: Apocryphal judge: "You leave this court with no stain on your character save that of an acquittal by a Snaresbrook jury")
From what I saw Forbes gets this rather simple concept and the others don't.
If you want to look at a free market in doctors looks like for pay, it is the USA.
Equally, whatever their approval ratings now, whoever becomes the new FM will immediately be seen differently. I suspect the winner will see some boost in his or her ratings.
It certainly is going to be true that some of the cases will be stronger than others and political DAs might try their luck - this New York one actually looks rather tricky to prove beyond a reasonable doubt. But there is legal recourse to deal with that sort of thing, it would not make its way through when there is money and clout fighting anything insufficient.
But ultimately, a medical degree is expensive to deliver, and the benefits to the NHS arrive around a decade later.
And we have a political system and culture that favours spending money on us now.