Could Johnson really lose his seat? – politicalbetting.com
Could Johnson really lose his seat? – politicalbetting.com
This is going to be a massive week for the former prime minister Boris Johnson with the report of the Commons Privileges Committee on whether he lied to the House about partygate.
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Lab 53%
Con 37%
https://pollingreport.uk/seats/E14001007
Lots of adverts and “sponsored posts” about startups and wotnot.
It was good while it lasted, I guess.
So he's toast.
https://twitter.com/damcou/status/1637469266881511427
SKS fans please explain
https://skwawkbox.org/2023/03/19/neither-beats-both-sunak-and-starmer-hands-down-in-best-pm-poll/
https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1637568272995438599?s=20
A short story.
The CEO of a high flying company accepts a payment of £660k from a client, for a very specific project said client would like delivered. The CEO and his board of directors commit to deliver the project for the agreed fee paid.
https://twitter.com/SpartacusLives/status/1637462789898883072?s=20
Very interesting, particularly regarding China’s role.
While embargoes against Russia continued, S7 Airlines managed to bring two B737-900 type aircraft from Indonesian Lion Air to Russia.
The planes will be painted in S7 Airlines colors and given to the flights. For the first time, the airline added B737-900 type aircraft to its fleet.
The airline had pre-war orders for the A320neo, A321neo and B737 MAX. A large number of aircraft, which were completed and could not be delivered, were transferred to many airline companies, especially THY.
Last seen in Abu Dhabi, before Moscow......which I expect is where they'll get the spares from.....
https://twitter.com/HavaSosyalMedya/status/1634695715967385600?s=20
Kwarteng: Johnson could survive Partygate grilling and lead Tories again
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/03/19/us-china-russia-relations-00087633
...Johnson’s supporters have long sought to discredit the inquiry. Over the weekend, they stepped up their attacks on the inquiry that all MPs voted to begin last April.
Lord Cruddas, a former Tory party treasurer to whom Johnson gave a peerage in 2020, has urged the privileges committee not to rely on a report into the illegal parties compiled by the senior civil servant Sue Gray, given she later took up a job offer from Labour.
A petition was also launched by the Conservative Post website, which called on the four Tory MPs who make up the majority of committee members to withdraw...
The Kwarteng link.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/mar/19/kwasi-kwarteng-i-would-never-rule-out-boris-johnson-leading-tories-again
Cost of living: 'I never thought I'd be sofa-surfing at 74'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-stoke-staffordshire-64983317
...The letting agency has seen average rents increase from £989 per calendar month in January 2022, to £1,241 this January, yet there is no let-up in demand...
For years, the SNP government benefited from the precious gift of trust. Polls consistently showed it enjoyed higher levels of confidence than its Westminster counterpart.
That has been destroyed by the small cabal around Nicola Sturgeon and her husband Peter Murrell, the SNP’s now ex-chief executive. It’s perhaps a blessing that the secretive, controlling and undemocratic edifice they built is tumbling down in spectacular fashion."
https://www.sundaypost.com/fp/trust-so-carefully-won-has-been-lost-it-is-time-for-a-clean-pair-of-hands/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social
That septuagenarian who's sofa surfing is the harbinger of many millions in decades to come - have nots who couldn't afford to buy will be working til they drop to service extortionate rents, before ending up in hostels or sleeping rough in their 70s and 80s. A wholly avoidable humanitarian crisis, deliberately generated by Government policy.
This week the prime minister will put a critical aspect of his deal, the Windsor framework, to a vote in the Commons. While ministers are confident that they have the numbers to get it through, some in government are concerned that No 10 has “overpromised and underdelivered”.
They raised concerns about the “Stormont brake”, which allows the government to veto new EU legislation if there are concerns in Northern Ireland. “The legislation isn’t what’s been sold,” a minister said. “The brake doesn’t really do much.”
In a critical report, the European Research Group of MPs is expected to claim that the legal text of Sunak’s deal would in effect stop the UK from diverging from the EU because it would result in new barriers between Britain and Northern Ireland. It also dismisses the brake as “unusable”, warning that any block would have to be ultimately agreed by Brussels.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-over-promised-on-brexit-deal-ministers-fear-3f7dzpkw8
Baroness Casey of Blackstock’s excoriating review — ordered after Sarah Everard was abducted, raped and murdered by the serving Metropolitan Police officer Wayne Couzens in 2021 — found institutional problems of sexism, racism and homophobia.
Casey is expected to detail a culture of bullying, officers being placed under unbearable work pressure and a failure of the Met’s leadership to get to grips with a series of misconduct scandals.
Whitehall sources said that the 300-page report was “do or die” for the Met, revealing that Casey had made a series of hard-hitting recommendations with the requirement that progress be monitored by a new oversight board, led by the mayor of London. They said the option was left open for more radical reform, including structural changes, if a drastic overhaul did not occur.
There have long been calls for more specialist areas, such as the national counter-terrorism command, to be split off and subsumed by the National Crime Agency to allow the Met to get to grips with policing London.
One source said “nothing is off the table” in the long term but added that it was crucial to give Sir Mark Rowley, who took over as the Met commissioner in September, time for reforms.
Casey is understood to have uncovered widespread failings in every department she examined, including the parliamentary and diplomatic protection command. She will recommend that the unit, in which Couzens and the serial sex offender David Carrick both served, be “effectively disbanded”.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/toxic-met-faces-being-broken-up-wghtk0rj9
I was very surprised by the claim about rents so I checked prices round here.
Genuinely staggered at the rates being asked for even modest houses. That’s a 50% increase on what I was paying just eight years ago.
The Met is one of five forces in special measures. My own county force, Gloucestershire, is one of them, and having had some dealings with them recently I find that far from surprising.
The whole police system across the country needs a thorough shake up. Step forward...
Suella Braverman?
The Met has used the “national responsibilities” thing as a shield before - especially the anti-terrorism remit.
As for the Met how many bloody chances does it need? Enough already. Break it up into five different forces each with their own Commissioner, Police Authority and PCC. That’s been needed for over 100 years.
And at the same time, change the rules on disciplinary procedures so they are completed whether you resign or not (and that could be usefully applied in other fields as well, the way it is in teaching).
If you want a half decent fixed rate on your cash savings, jump now.
https://www.paragonbank.co.uk/savings/cash-isas/three-year-fixed-cash-isa
Ain’t too bad
I expect these kind of rates will be pulled very soon.
I can only conclude that we've had remarkably useless government for at least the last decade.
Ignore, then.
School policy, electricity generation, the constant costly bungling of HS2, the delays in getting FTTP rolled out and the mere existence of Dominic Cummings all point the same way.
The next government must must must do something about the affordability of property.
Except that nearly no one has the pension provision to afford that.
Expect large number of stories of people retiring and discovering their only options are to move to some very, very out of the places or are homeless.
That said, there are a number of police, probably in the minority but no less impressive for it, who really do put themselves on the front line in harm's way dealing with the most unpleasant aspects of our society.
That should be good news (lower inflation), but it might be bad news (sign of an incoming recession).
Goodness knows what that would be now.
Does anyone disagree with the abject failure on housing ?
They were talking about demanding suspension of civil rights, sending the army in, curfews etc. For the residents. Because they believed that the result wou Part of the problem is a near religious anti-development belief. We see people twisting themselves in knots to declare that building a couple of million homes will destroy the countryside, that claiming there is a housing shortage is racist, that all we need to do is evict second home owners/Fu Manchu* etc etc.
France has a similar population, and with millions more homes doesn’t face anything like the same problem.
Not building the homes is racist, as well.
*It seems to be acceptable to be quite racist about foreign property owners.
(Which Johnson absolutely did, bythe way. The only question is whether Tory MPs vote accordingly. It's an entirely political choice for them).
https://twitter.com/RichardANuttall/status/1637599245602545665?s=20
Up 15% plus round here in a couple of weeks.
Only advantages are secure tenancy and that they are fully covered by the housing component of UC. (Of less use if you are in work).
Getting inflation down and interest rates trimmed a bit is, realistically, probably it.
If they believed they had any chance at all of being re-elected, they'd be looking beyond the next 18 months. As any responsible government should in any event be doing.
'Let's leave all the problems to the next lot' is an appalling attitude for a party which likes to call itself the natural party of government.
Didn't bother bookmarking the site. Didn't think much of it.......
Listening to the news this morning I expect this week is going to be very dramatic and it looks as if Johnson has Harriet Harman and Sue Gray in his sights
Kay Burley said that Sue Gray was talking to Labour at the same time as she was advising the committee looking into Johnson and it doesn't look good (her words, not mine)
I have no respect for Johnson whatsoever and would be delighted if he faced a recall but this is going to be hugely controversial
in 2024.
And older homeowners with time to complain about things going on up their backyard are about the only Conservative voters left right now, so Sunak daren't annoy them.
“Who do you trust more? Boris Johnson or Sue Gray?”
Would make for an interesting question.
I recon the public would split ~80/20 in favour of our Sue.
I agree it isn't a good look but the issue is the widespread flouting of the rules that Johnson not only took part in but actively encouraged.
And then, patently, lied about.
If he tries to move it onto this territory all that happens is he underlines how widespread the practice he said happened as a moment of madness was.
Everything else is theatre, distraction and whataboutery.
He's banged to rights.
Ah, my coat...
2m
*UBS SHARES FALL 10% AFTER AGREEING CREDIT SUISSE TAKEOVER
Well done Swiss government, what a fucking bang up job you've done here. Morons.
I don't see how he survives this- the arithmetic is against him- but he may well leave a trail of destruction in his attempts to cling on.
And I don't think he'll have much fun answering that...
He has already submitted the dossier to the committee, which will publish the document as soon as this afternoon. Johnson has no say in the timing.
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1637725846948413440?s=20
That's why, for example, our energy infrastructure is far worse than it might otherwise be.
But you can probably come up with a dozen examples.
The main opposition to new housing comes from Residents' Associations, Independents and the Liberal Democrats not the Conservatives. See Chesham and Amersham and this ultra Nimby LD councillor
https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1634525916125642752?s=20
A decade and a half of stupid economics trying to avoid pain has just created more pain.
Idiots.
“Who do you trust more? Well meaning victim of witch hunt Boris Johnson or friend of Keir Starmer & future Labour chief of staff Sue Gray?”
Probly still be 80/20 mind.
I get thinking Boris is the best leader and ousting him being a mistake, I get being persuaded by the legal justifications, but he goes well beyond that.
Personally I think pressuring the committee members is a mistake. It's as good as attacking their integrity by implying they are bent if they do not do what Boris wants.
He's not broken unwritten rules here, so the pile of bluster approach won't work. And he's yesterday's man not heir apparent, so the unsubtle bullying won't work either.
A bit like a music hall turn failing to adapt to the advent of television, Johnson was to arrogant / lazy / incapable to keep his act fresh.
It looks terrible, and is going to give the Tories the opportunity to question the timeline, in an attempt to discredit her as a political stooge.
A fair accompli is fine when there's no concern over values (SVB UK), but otherwise it's just deferring dealing with the problem.
Probably would have been much cheaper to sort out in the medium term, if the government had just taken on the problem itself.
Of course its purpose is to bolster the vote against any sanction, if any is recommended - if it persuades any committee members that would be a bonus.