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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The currency question just got harder for Yes this week
Two years ago, two-thirds of Scottish voters would have voted for independence if it made them £500 a year better off. That support dropped to just 21% if they would be left £500 a year down. We shouldn’t regard those figures as gospel – putting the emphasis so heavily on one factor in the question will probably exaggerate the effect in the results – but there’s no doubt that how voters perceive th…
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No worries; happens to little people:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kv_TA2S2z34
Michael Moore is out saying that the Atlanta snowjam this week was caused by global warming.
It was actually caused by every worker and parent of a school kid inside the perimeter highway getting on the roads at exactly the same time because of incoming snow, which froze and made matters worse.
If anything it proves that 6 lanes each way on an urban interstate isn't enough - we need more lanes, and more interstates.
Problem is the scaremongering and tactical refusal to debate on this aspect and the EU needs to end; it is the NO campaigns best fear tactic, so requirement for Scottish Government to confirm pound will be used, regardles of the Treasury view, as it is Scottish owned as well, and has been for 300 years.
The REAL question is whether it is done with agreement in a currency union or simply pegging the Scots pound to sterling, which negates all debt and Scotland can start off as a new country debt free.
If you keep assets, dear London, then you keep the debts. Simple decision, yes or no on this, so make a decision by February 15th Mr Cameron and we are happy to abide to your decision either way. If no confirmation we will make our own decision and plan for a debt free economy. Major selling point one would think? Win-win.
I actually favour the latter, no debt and a pound pegged to sterling which can be amended as and when necessary. I suspect with North Sea Oil (the real figures) it would rise substantially within 2 years but we can all beg to differ. Even Carney said with a geographical share of oil the Scottish economy would be "different" to rUK, whereas if the oil was not split geographically the economies would be "similar."
Says it all really. Scotland will be stinking rich if independent and Treasury, Carney included, accepts that position, even if Peston conveniently missed it in his speech..
Your choice then is negotiate, or UDI - in which case you can kiss goodbye to the EU and the international bond markets, Braveheart.
I note you did not question Carney saying scotland would be better off "different" economically. I presume you agree with him?
Scotland and its citizens are IN the EU, when Greenland left it took a lot of effort to remove them as default position was they were citizens. That decision was not made by Denmark, read rUK, it was made by Greenlanders themselves when they voted.
When East Germany joined West Germany their citizens automatically became members of the EU. Is it becoming easier for you to understand now?
The issue is simple, will treasury confirm a currency union or not. If more dithering, a conscious decision to obfuscate, they force a hand they may not like, but the EU and the populace will know where the blame needs to be apportioned. It is not UDI either, and the rUK refusing to accept a winning referendum result is not plausibe*, unless there are tanks and bayoneted troops down George Street, just like 1919 when the locals got a bit restless?
Watching the crazy Scottish debate this week in the House of Lords by unelected lairds and numerous English lords with a vested interest and old pollies after 300 quid a day I think that would be their preferred choice, but common sense will no doubt occur.
*Although 1979 shows getting most votes in a referendum was not enough after an MP from England gerrymandered the vote.
We could get the London official position in 24 hours.
Problem is the key scare stories would no longer be relevant and economic data would be the top issues, something London cannot win on facts. Obfuscation and fear is only tactic.
With polls close the credence given for even deigning to discuss these issues now needs to be grudgingly admitted from London. The "no point it cannot happen" approach has reached the end of its shelf life.
Timelines need to be set for information to be provided as the YES campaign cannot wait until 19th September for a change in attitude. No wonder Cameron wants to avoid a debate as long as he can get away with it, and hopes with continuing MSM support as PM of UK he can get away with that line whilst sending the subbies like Hague in whilst using donor money from Tories to scrape over the line.
The fact the Better Together mob via their soldiers gave out false leaflets stating Scots cannot use the pound in a limited campaign at rail stations shows this is crucial to them. Smash that and they have nothing of value. So smash it by putting them on the spot. 1/100 at ladbrokes tells me they should concede, but they just cannot do so for the above reasons.
That the Scottish MSM has not demanded an answer from Cameron yet his chaps like Hague fly in and fly out whilst claiming a decision for Scots is astonishing. Cameron makes the decisions, not a weak house flipping Labour back bencher.
While I am fully supportive of scottish independence(and not because I want shot of you) I think you are kidding yourself if you believe that Spain is not going to oppose you at least and I suspect if Spain makes waves the EU will rather keep Spain happy than Scotland.
On top of the Spain issue you have also had various eu flunkies pronounce upon the issue and lets face it even if the rules would let you in they will ignore it anyway to save face. My expectation is they will make Scotland reapply but fast track it so it only takes a couple of years as a sort of compromise
That said, with all these uncertainties, sweeping the issue under the carpet seems like the right thing to do, since there's too little information about what will happen after either a yes vote or a no vote to make a meaningful decision based on it.
Btw does any Labour person thing there is any chance at all that they will be rejected? Presumably the unions have already signed up.
Nor is remotely surprising that PB tories desperately look for anything to talk about rather than Cast Iron Cameron's continuing John Major style shambles after he proved his inability to control his own party by caving in to the tory rebels.
I can very easily quote what you said and the entire press release if you like.
Or we could draw our own conclusions after the PB tories refused to take up TUD when he offered a similar bet.
Why would any Cameroons want to talk about the crisis in the tory party after all?
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/european-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=1616833
Hadnt seen it mentioned before. Isnt Andrew Mitchell value at 5/1?
http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/About/General/2012/1/27/1327679544410/David-Cameron-husky-dogs--007.jpg
*chortle*
On thread :
The currency question is easy to distil. Doubt and uncertainty are the friends of the IN campaign and have been from day one. It is the most difficult issue for Salmond to overcome and presently he has failed to do so.
I think that Scotland will both want to and be able to keep the £ if independfence happens - yes, it's not ideal but they'll want to, just as smaller countries in Europe nearly all want to be in the Euro, (As a matter of interest, I had some difficulty changing £s in Japan - the first two banks I went to said they only handled dollars and euros now.) Yes, it's been clear for some time that the move to one member one vote is basically a done deal. It strikes a nice balance by giving a positive incentive to unions to get members to pay the supplement to join, while eliminating the votes of people who aren't willing to make any commitment. The only aspect that could cause some grumbles is that union members who join for an extra £3 or whatever are getting in more cheaply than people who join through the website, but "Let's make union members cough up more to join us" is not a call that will have widespread appeal. I'm sure there will still be some haggles before it's all nailed down though.
SNP too timid to offer a new currency - thus having to rely on London for economic gravitas.
Poor planning by the SNP - too naive to forsee the Euro crisis.
http://www.theguardian.com/media/greenslade/2014/jan/31/jkrowling-dailymail
I guess we shouldn't comment for the usual reasons, but in general terms, anyone who takes on the media for allegedly slanted journalism is doing us all a favour by making it more likely that future writers will take care to strike a balance.
So by implication you're projecting a landslide YES vote ?
There's a distinct difference between electing the main opposition to government over a discredited Labour party and opting for Independence. The mindset of the voter is entirely different - Independence is for keeps not just a SNP Christmas.
In any case we only have 8 months of banter to enjoy before once again JackW and his ARSE is proved correct and you and other critics scuttle for cover .... and then I have a further 8 months to revel in the excuses of those who doubt my projection for the Greneral Election.
Happy days !!
I'm sure Dave would prefer to avoid a by-election but there arent many non MPs being touted for it. Mitchell's constituency is as good a one to defend as any. Can you think of any Tory peers up to the job?
What could possibly go wrong ?!?
Scottish labour campaigned on a negative "anti-independence" message during 2011 as some of us remember and just showed you with little Ed and Balls own strategy laid bare. We do. Eight long months and this was the last we heard from the 'gold standard'.
I propose something post your election as MP for Broxtowe along the lines of electoral fraud, spiced up with some saucy sexual titillation and the death a la "Midsomer Murders" of all your PPC opponents ??
Currency is 8th. Only ahead of the monarchy and the BBC as topics.
Why?
Do you promise to stick with PB after YES lose ??
Excellent if you do .... Think Quebec, you'll be with us for decades !!
And must we start down the rather 'delicate' road of who is even able to 'stick' with PB and why, Jack? I fear your Moderator chums may not approve.
"He was clear the eurozone showed currency union without fiscal union won't work. But the SNP immediately rejected fiscal union. Salmond's rejection of the key test set by the Governor makes an already flawed proposal even more unworkable," said Mr Balls.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/salmond-stands-firm-on-tax-and-spending-powers.23326332
I especially look forward to the return of "Stuart Truth" in around January 2016 !!
'Balls is a terrible shadow chancellor and toxic! Listen to Balls warnings on independence as he must know what he's talking about!'
I do hope spouting labour and Balls spin doesn't leave a nasty taste in the mouth.
LOL
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/wider-political-news/french-non-spells-trouble-for-cameron-and-salmond.23324470
Enjoyable piece, Mr. Herdson. I wonder if anyone recalls the excellent Mr. India sketches from Goodness Gracious Me? One or two chaps (well, Salmond, at least) sometimes sound like Mr. Scotland.
"Sterling? Scottish! Oil? Scottish! Military regiments with the word 'Scotland' in name? Scottish! Debt? Oh, that's English."
Given the separatists need Labour voters to vote for separation, the views of Balls on the matter are non-trivial......now back to posting on Osbrowne, fops, Clegg, anything but Scotland with you!
Gullible Tory Eurosceptics. Will they ever learn?
Currency unions work best with fiscal and political unions - it's called "the United Kingdom".
So pretty much the "disaster for Labour" coverage many on here were predicting. Cameron played it brilliantly.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/02/f1-2014-first-test.html
I'll probably have just one more pre-season piece, covering both tests 2 and 3 (they're fairly close together).
Gullible Tory Eurosceptics. Will they ever learn?
If it's a great big "Non" for Cameron, it's also a great big "Non" for Eck and his EU membership fast track.....
The issue comes if there is no agreement on certain issues: say Scotland refused to take a penny of British debt, in which case I think - as Carlotta says - the only option for Scotland would be UDI. In that circumstance, Spain, the UK, and France would all oppose Scotland's entry into the EU.
In the Isle of Man (deviance! Yes!) as I understand it the Manx pound is separate from but interchangable with Sterling at a 1:1 exchange rate. The Island has sovereignty but pursues a policy to shadow Sterling, and had previously said that if the UK adopted the Euro they would follow.
So I don't get the loss of sovereignty argument when it comes to fiat currencies. Where was our sovereignty when the currency was attacked in the mid70s and early 90s and we had to do things not in the national interest because of the actions of others. Or Argentina or Turkey or South Africa's sovereignty right now as their currencies have to be propped up or collapse. When nations create pretend money there is little sovereignty anyway as their paper floats on the wind of speculation. If Scotland chose to back its currency with something of actual value such as oil or metals that might be different. But otherwise Scotland with the pound would be no different to France with the Euro.
I don't want Scotland to leave. But as scare stories go this one is stupid.
We are all well used to that on here by now from the PB tories. Still very funny though.
Now we wait to see where the next tory rebellion is going to emerge from since emerge it most certainly shall. Sooner or later.
Solid Renegotiation details and big concessions from Cammie to the tory rebels looks likely. However, I wouldn't rule out something else on immigration when the kipper VI starts to climb again before May's EU elections. Panic tends to add a certain amount of unpredictability.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10610041/Mark-Carney-is-a-supreme-technocrat-but-politicians-must-take-the-lead.html
This Charles Moore.
He has been editor of The Spectator (1984-90), the Sunday Telegraph (1992-5) and The Daily Telegraph (1995-2003).
He is the authorised biographer of Margaret Thatcher and continues to write for The Spectator and The Daily Telegraph.
Someone the scottish public is clearly guaranteed to listen to and respect.
Or perhaps maybe just a touch right wing for the scottish public?
*tears of laughter etc.*
Mr. Jonathan, anyone willing to play constitutional games for a possible political advantage needs a slap with a large haddock. First up, the Labour clowns who thought they'd killed nationalism stone dead with the stupid Scottish Parliament and the unforgivable (and copied by all other major parties) failure to ask, let alone answer, the West Lothian Question.
Either way, it doesn't sound like Farage is very upset over Cameron's EU shambles. It's almost tempting to think he's absolutely delighted with the chaos inside the tory party.
But why on earth would that be the case?
It is not impossible to have one, but it has to be to the advantage of both players.
Labour plans to cut unions' power:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-25992825
It's actually hard to say whether it's reducing or increasing the power of the unions. A legitimate case can be made either way. Bit odd to remove the voting rights of MPs, though.
That said, I think it's probably a positive move. Miliband is right to take steps to alter a system so flawed that it led to the election of Ed Miliband as leader.
And the unions can hardly complain that he's stabbed his brothers in the back. It's his MO.
“The Isle of Man is a Crown Dependency and is not in a currency union with the UK. It has no central bank and no lender of last resort. Is he honestly trying to tell the people of Scotland that it is a good idea to have no-one standing behind our banks and to have no say in how our mortgage or savings rates are set?
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-isle-of-man-currency-model-1-3002351
It's fair to say he hasn't used it in a while.
The UK is NOT in currency unions with the IoM or the Channel Islands - they issue their own currencies which are pegged at parity with the GBP. Carney set out the technical requirements for a successful currency union - fiscal union and transfers and political union - it's called "the United Kingdom".
Never mind having more Pandas than MPs this seems designed to deliver the same for tory MSPs.
Not hard to tell why even scottish labour wants the tories to vanish from the referendum campaign lest they damage things beyond repair. Keep at it PB tories, you are in no way a complete liability.
"For some better informed feedback on the Jerez tests go to Autosport and read Gary Anderson's columns. Shame on the BBC that they don't even have the decency to inform their viewers that GA has left their F1 reporting team for 2014: he was just "disappeared"."
Gary Anderson was practically the only good addition to the BBC's coverage after their Judas Iscariot approach to F1 fans and coverage of the sport. Damned shame he seems to have left.
Given the size of its banking sector, Scotland needs a LOLR and that LOLR will want to supervise its banks.....
Equally amusing are those who fail to realise such questions will obviously boil down to trust come the referendum vote. Not to sure 'trust' is something little Ed, Cammie or Clegg would be wise to place all their faith in considering just how much the scottish public trusts them.
The bet is as much about Ladbrokes interpretation of their own wording as it is of the facts on the ground. That said, it's all hypothecated on the basis of a Yes vote in September, which I don't expect.
LOL, only you could come up with that crap, unfortunately for you when the vote is YES it is a done deal , Westminster will have no say in the matter. Also as Westminster confirmed under international law Scotland have no debt and no obligation to assume the UK's debt.
Once the markets give Dave and Gideon their guidance they will be at the table signing up with few objections.
We can survive with no debt , I think the rump with its £1.4T will be in a bit worse shape come the day. Little Englanders like you will be shocked.
Note that the Tories lost every seat they were defending - not a good start to 2014.
I do fear any break-up could be more acrimonious than many hope it will be.
Ladbrokes latest betting
Scotland to form a currency union with the United Kingdom before the 31st of December 2015
Yes 1/100
No 50/1
Bets void if referendum outcome is 'no' to independence
Referendum outcome
Yes 7/2
No 1/5
If that was the bet it would be value. That's not the bet they are offering though (the actual bet is horrific value on both sides).
Re Ireland - we used the same currency for a few years and then pegged a new currency to sterling for about 50 years, there was never a currency union with the UK.
I cant check right now but sadly I dont think I'm mistaken. Try and find the bet on their website, it's ridiculousm
Blame Sturgeon? Offer his resignation, or sign up for additional spending powers from Westminster?
What they can't be certain of is that it will be as part of a formal currency union and that they would be represented on the MPC et al.
As to the other half of my argument, about fiscal sovereignty. Membership of the Euro cedes sovereignty to the ECB, as has been made clear few states have any real influence over a monetary policy which has been bad for everyone. So sovereignty is a red herring as other currency unions cope ok with that sort of arrangement.
Nor do I see much sovereignty with many of the world's currencies. Scotland in essence has a choice of paper it can issue as currency, all have issues around stability and control which is no different to its membership of Sterling at the moment. Unless someone wants to suggest with a straight face that UK monetary policy has always been influenced by and executed in the best interests of Scotland.
If the no camp thing this will scare floating voters, I'm not convinced.