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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » South Shields by-election: Round-up of betting prices

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  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited April 2013
    @Sunil

    You have asked that more than once. Of course they will. I mean Justine would probably do a better job than Ed right now. . Ed just repeats soundbites he does not understand. His weakness under interview and shallowness will continue to be exposed.
    The site owner suggested that Labour had elected the right leader. That might have been the wrong perception. it is looking increasingly likely that neither was the right choice. They should have elected tim's favourite Darling.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    Alex Massie on the challenge UKIP represents to the Tories:

    http://www.thinkscotland.org/todays-thinking/articles.html?read_full=12121&article=www.thinkscotland.org

    "All British political parties live in fear of schism. From the perspective of the eurosceptic right, UKIP's ability to cause trouble in a good cause risks leaving the right's house divided. The only way to ensure an EU referendum is to vote Conservative at the next election. But a strong UKIP forever nipping at Tory heels is the only way to ensure David Cameron fulfils his promise to renegotiate Britain's relationship with Brussels. This, then, is a matter of some delicacy. Smash UKIP and Cameron might wriggle free of his commitments; back UKIP and you may make Ed Miliband Prime Minister.

    Perhaps. Nevertheless, all these Tories fretting about the votes they may lose to UKIP on the right fail to put an estimate on the number they might lose from the centre if the party is seen to be lurching to embrace UKIPism. There is no point winning votes on the disaffected right if those ballots are matched by lost votes from the horrified middle. Moreover, there is every possibility that, in general, UKIP's supporters are disproportionately likely to live in safe Tory seats rather than in the marginals that will determine the outcome of the next election. It can hardly be stressed too often that where you win your votes matters almost as much as how many votes you win.

    In other words, UKIP's gains this week are much less important than the Tory party's response to those gains (and to Tory losses). If it's nerve holds it can see this storm out; if it panics, breaks and run it will find the party routed in the much more important battles still to come."

    All this is conjecture. Alex Massie knows nothing; as Mike said until this election is over all it moot and nonsense. BTW, there are no one more middling than the average kipper.

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited April 2013
    @MikeK

    There is a Kinnell Parish Council in Angus, it should be twinned with Fulking.

    http://www.ancestor.abel.co.uk/Angus/Kinnell.html

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926
    edited April 2013
    dr_spyn said:

    Standard Labour response crocodile tears over the NHS - faux concern over Stafford, but did I mention the nurses the lovely, lovely dancing nurses, the lovely, lovely, dancing voting Labour nurses.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Du-nfWPSNlk

    This made me laugh out loud haha (the part with snow @ 1m)

    http://youtu.be/9TaLFrPLdYc?t=1m5s
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tim said:

    @RobD

    It's a standard PB Tory response.

    Mention a Nazi salute and someone posts that photo (without a salute in it)
    Mention the Tories issues with ethnic minority voters someone shouts Phil Woolas.
    Mention Dave's all male public school circle someone says "Thatcher was a woman"
    Mention the NHS, someone shouts "Stafford"

    Makes a change from Latvian homophobes.

    I guess today's equivalent is "the fop's failing deficit reduction plan" which is wheeled out to attack Jeb Bush or the provision squad for the Lions tour or whatever.

  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    The Conservatives won 36.1% of the vote in 2010. 17% of that is 6%. Which leaves 30% of the vote. The current UKPR average is 31%, so as compared Labour/LibDems/Others/Not voting, the Tories have net gained a percentage point. Obviously a 9% lead would do Labour, but I would hardly consider that encouraging for them.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Former London Mayor Ken Livingstone has defended comments he made over the Boston Marathon bombings.

    He told the Iranian satellite channel Press TV that "squalid intervention" by Western governments fuelled anger such as that seen in the recent attack."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22352929
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    TGOHF said:

    tim said:

    @RobD

    It's a standard PB Tory response.

    Mention a Nazi salute and someone posts that photo (without a salute in it)
    Mention the Tories issues with ethnic minority voters someone shouts Phil Woolas.
    Mention Dave's all male public school circle someone says "Thatcher was a woman"
    Mention the NHS, someone shouts "Stafford"

    Makes a change from Latvian homophobes.

    I guess today's equivalent is "the fop's failing deficit reduction plan" which is wheeled out to attack Jeb Bush or the provision squad for the Lions tour or whatever.

    There's a certain irony in the poster that manages to have double the posts of anyone else from repeating not just the same points over and over again, but specific terms he's trying to make into memes (e.g. "chumocracy", "as a father" etc) accusing others of having "standard" responses.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Is the increased concern about immigration occurring because David Cameron talks about it, or because of people reading news stories like this?

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/old-bedding-rubbish-and-human-waste-bin-bag-romanians-turn-exclusive-garden-square-into-a-stinking-squalid-mess-8585805.html
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,814
    tim said:

    @Socrates

    At least I know what I'm posting about, your embarrassing post up thread suggests you can't even read a poll.

    Can you read a Czech?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    MikeK said:

    Alex Massie on the challenge UKIP represents to the Tories:

    http://www.thinkscotland.org/todays-thinking/articles.html?read_full=12121&article=www.thinkscotland.org

    "All British political parties live in fear of schism. From the perspective of the eurosceptic right, UKIP's ability to cause trouble in a good cause risks leaving the right's house divided. The only way to ensure an EU referendum is to vote Conservative at the next election. But a strong UKIP forever nipping at Tory heels is the only way to ensure David Cameron fulfils his promise to renegotiate Britain's relationship with Brussels. This, then, is a matter of some delicacy. Smash UKIP and Cameron might wriggle free of his commitments; back UKIP and you may make Ed Miliband Prime Minister.

    Perhaps. Nevertheless, all these Tories fretting about the votes they may lose to UKIP on the right fail to put an estimate on the number they might lose from the centre if the party is seen to be lurching to embrace UKIPism. There is no point winning votes on the disaffected right if those ballots are matched by lost votes from the horrified middle. Moreover, there is every possibility that, in general, UKIP's supporters are disproportionately likely to live in safe Tory seats rather than in the marginals that will determine the outcome of the next election. It can hardly be stressed too often that where you win your votes matters almost as much as how many votes you win.

    In other words, UKIP's gains this week are much less important than the Tory party's response to those gains (and to Tory losses). If it's nerve holds it can see this storm out; if it panics, breaks and run it will find the party routed in the much more important battles still to come."

    BTW, there are no one more middling than the average kipper.
    No.

    As I pointed out a few days ago the 'average Kipper' is much more concerned about Immigration than any other voting group:

    Most important issue facing Britain:

    Immigration:
    Con: 65
    Lab: 40
    Lib Dem: 25
    UKIP: 90

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/0o8p7g0w79/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-230413.pdf



  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    "Britain Influence In Europe" distributed photos of UKIP guy in Wiltshire - allegation of smear campaign on BBC Points West on Live now.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    tim said:

    @Socrates

    At least I know what I'm posting about, your embarrassing post up thread suggests you can't even read a poll.

    Calm down. Mike wants us to play nice, so let's leave things be. Tell us about the fops again.
  • @tim
    tim said:


    Moral of the story, don't prevent asylum seekers working.

    If you did that, surely it would vitiate the whole system of immigration restriction, because someone who had failed to meet the criteria as an economic migrant, could simply put in an asylum claim, and be entitled to work and claim benefits from the word go.

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited April 2013

    @tim

    tim said:


    Moral of the story, don't prevent asylum seekers working.

    If you did that, surely it would vitiate the whole system of immigration restriction, because someone who had failed to meet the criteria as an economic migrant, could simply put in an asylum claim, and be entitled to work and claim benefits from the word go.

    Rue no 1 of PB. never let detail get in the way of a comment.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    tim said:

    Tim Shipman ‏@ShippersUnbound
    Tories privately admitting they will be forced into council coalitions with Ukip. Interesting blog from @BBCJLandale http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22356755

    That could happen in Staffordshire where the Tories currently have a massive majority.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    Chuka Harrison comes out off hiding.

    'Two-faced Chuka Umunna has been getting on his high horse about how terribly unfair private schools are at the Times CEO Africa summit today: Chuka Umanna suggests private schooling can damage social mobility.'

    But he wouldn't rule it out for his kids.

    Excellent comedy.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053


    Tim Shipman
    @ShippersUnbound
    If you thought Patelgate was bonkers, tomorrow Brian May will lead a flashmob of people dressed as badgers outside Defra.

    Could one of them be Cammo having a guilt trip?

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited April 2013
    Gerry Hassan ‏@GerryHassan 1m
    #EdMiliband is struggling massively to be coherent in #GaryGibbon #c4news interview. 2nd shaky interview in 2 days.

    Dr Kailash Chand OBE ‏@KailashChandOBE 49s
    #c4news @Ed_Miliband Very difficult to work with @nick_clegg “Emphatic NO to have coalition with Nick ”--We all agree with you Ed.

    someone not having a good time in the spotlight again. Though it was enough for Clegg to walk away from Labour when he met Ed M and Ed B as negotiators in May 2010.
  • tim said:

    @LIAMT

    Many work in the black economy anyway.
    Obviously speeding up the asylum system makes the big difference but the downsides of illegal working are greater than the upsides.

    It might be argued that the fact that people break the law is not a reason for making the offending behaviour legal. Speeding up the asylum system is a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow that successive Secretaries of State for the Home Department have tried, and failed to obtain. It is true that the downsides of illegal working are greater than the upsides for asylum seekers. That doesn't take into the account the incentive for economic migrants to claim asylum if work and benefits follow the claim immediately. Given the level of restriction on economic migration from outside the European Union, that incentive would be very great indeed. My preferred solution is a policy of unilateral free migration, but that has had no political support whatsoever since 1948.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The Telegraph wins. I've just been forced to subscribe to them because I reached my free limit.
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    @tim

    I see that you have posted here since Vanilla came in 2,171 times. That is a very lot. Are you sure that this is the best use of your time? You have posted here many more times that @Plato, which reminds me, where is Plato? Last time she was absent it turned out that she was quite seriously ill. Anyone heard?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Ed Miliband's Martha Kearney interview at 8 mins:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio/player/b01s46vj?rpSt=world+at+one&rpSrp=5.0
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @dr_spyn

    '#EdMiliband is struggling massively to be coherent in #GaryGibbon #c4news interview. 2nd shaky interview in 2 days'

    Simple,keep Ed off TV & radio and away from policy..
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited April 2013
    RobD said:
    If you click the Saga link, it has the tables. DKs are included (not reallocated).

  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    Ed, Prime Minister of Crawley.

    'I watched Ed Miliband campaigning in Crawley this morning..

    One man who asked a question had no idea who Ed Miliband was and started wandering off before he’d answered it.
    Two others hadn’t the first idea who he was. I said he was running for prime minister and one of them said: ” … of Crawley?”
    “No – the whole country,” I said “Jesus,” came the response.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926
    So excluding DKs and won't says that is C 36, L 21, LD 10, UKIP 26, Other 7.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    john_zims said:

    Ed, Prime Minister of Crawley.

    'I watched Ed Miliband campaigning in Crawley this morning..

    One man who asked a question had no idea who Ed Miliband was and started wandering off before he’d answered it.
    Two others hadn’t the first idea who he was. I said he was running for prime minister and one of them said: ” … of Crawley?”
    “No – the whole country,” I said “Jesus,” came the response.

    People who think there's the Prime Minister of Crawley are allowed to vote?
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    Musing on this now. Let's say that the average @tim post takes a minute to compose. Perhaps a little on the conservative side, but let's balance it by rounding up to 3,000 posts. So that's 3,000 mins @ 3,000/60 equals 50 hours. When was it Vanilla came in? Two months ago? So that's about 25 hours a month, conservatively.

    My God. Really.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926
    pbr2013 said:

    Musing on this now. Let's say that the average @tim post takes a minute to compose. Perhaps a little on the conservative side, but let's balance it by rounding up to 3,000 posts. So that's 3,000 mins @ 3,000/60 equals 50 hours. When was it Vanilla came in? Two months ago? So that's about 25 hours a month, conservatively.

    My God. Really.

    Sad to say, but I easily spend 25 hours a month on PB!
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    @RobD

    Posting? I really doubt it.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    RobD said:

    So excluding DKs and won't says that is C 36, L 21, LD 10, UKIP 26, Other 7.
    The YouGov/Sun tables seem to show much higher Labour support among >55s than Saga.

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/n0mnvjaab7/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-290413.pdf
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    RobD said:

    So excluding DKs and won't says that is C 36, L 21, LD 10, UKIP 26, Other 7.
    The YouGov/Sun tables seem to show much higher Labour support among >55s than Saga.

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/n0mnvjaab7/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-290413.pdf
    As do other pollsters , all you can conclude is that Saga members are not representative of all people of that age group . A Readers Digest type poll .

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    @MarkSenior
    As do other pollsters , all you can conclude is that Saga members are not representative of all people of that age group . A Readers Digest type poll .

    Hope springs eternal, Mark. ;^)
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 993
    Council Elections: Will UKIP get into double figures?
This discussion has been closed.