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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » South Shields by-election: Round-up of betting prices

SystemSystem Posts: 11,902
edited April 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » South Shields by-election: Round-up of betting prices

Ladbrokes South Shields Ukipshares:0-10 7/110-20 6/420-30 13/830-40 4/140+ 20/1 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

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  • Options
    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    edited April 2013
    OT

    UCAS figures for the year so far show non-EU student applications up 6.3% on last year. Looks like the coalition are doing a good job of getting immigration under control but not discouraging foreign students.

    http://www.ucas.ac.uk/documents/stats/2013_applicantfigures_mar.pdf
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    JonathanD said:

    OT

    UCAS figures for the year so far show non-EU student applications up 6.3% on last year. Looks like the coalition are doing a good job of getting immigration under control but not discouraging foreign students.

    http://www.ucas.ac.uk/documents/stats/2013_applicantfigures_mar.pdf

    Bear in mind the market is growing up 7% a year, so we're losing market share with anything less than that. And that's only applications rather than than places.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,921
    tim said:

    UKIP available at 50/1 on Betfair, in which case the odds on the Tories finishing second have been too long at 6 and 7/1

    7/4 on 10-19.9% was the value on UKIP I think, its shortened now.

    Wheres this 6 and 7-1 on CON 2nd, tuppence ha'penny traded on CON 2nd in the betfair market.
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    One event? O, you urchin!

    I referenced Pharsalus, Dyrrachium, Cannae, the Alpine and Arnus marches, and the assassination of Caesar by his own side. Your numeracy is as lacking as your history!

    Ask Marcellus, Varro, Aemilius, Sempronius, Flaminius and Crispinus what they made of Hannibal.

    Caesar was assassinated, but only after he'd become dictator of the greatest empire on Earth. How did hannibal's career pan out after his victories?
    By what possible definition was the Roman Empire greater than the Han?
    OK, fair point: the two were probably about equal, though I'd suggest that the Roman Empire has had a far greater influence on the world today than the Han.
    Only because of the successes of later European nations over Asia. And things are still playing out: let us remember the next century will likely be a Chinese one.
    China may well become the predominant world power by 2050 but the international language will still be English, written in Latin script.

    As an aside, and linking to another topic of today, if the EU were to integrate fully by then, the global picture would not look a million miles from that of 2000 years ago.
    Not sure. North America will still be a major power and it was largely unpopulated grassland and desert 2000 years ago.
  • Options
    samsam Posts: 727
    edited April 2013
    tim said:

    James Forsyth ‏@JGForsyth 4m
    Priti Patel's dad standing for Ukip, Farage announces

    Could Priti be a runner at a nice price for next Mayor of London? Or is she too young?
  • Options
    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    Socrates said:

    JonathanD said:

    OT

    UCAS figures for the year so far show non-EU student applications up 6.3% on last year. Looks like the coalition are doing a good job of getting immigration under control but not discouraging foreign students.

    http://www.ucas.ac.uk/documents/stats/2013_applicantfigures_mar.pdf

    Bear in mind the market is growing up 7% a year, so we're losing market share with anything less than that. And that's only applications rather than than places.
    The UCAS figures will be for undergrad and postgrad taught only so I would imagine postgrad research will take the numbers up close to 7%. Also the total since 2011 is up 20% so there is be a fair amount of noise in the yearly growth rate.

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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    UKIP are surely deadly poison to the LibDems and Nats. If you want to protest you can now vote UKIP or Green , LibDems and SNP are just parts of the despised Establishment.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Cam ratings plummet
    David Cameron’s personal popularity is at its lowest level since the 2010 general election, according to new research released today.

    The YouGov poll for the National Policy Monitor found voters gave the Prime Minister an average of just 3.5 out of 10, compared to 5.1 in May 2010.

    Ed Miliband's own ratings have also fallen since he became Labour leader, from 4.4 to 3.75 out of 10 last month.

    Elsewhere, support for UKIP has hit 14% ahead of this week's local council elections. Another YouGov poll for the Sun saw Labour slip slightly to 39%, well ahead of the Tories on 30%, with the Lib Dems back on 11%.

    The Sun also reports that Conservative insiders fear the party could lose as many as 800 councils seats in Thursday's elections.

    But UKIP received some bad publicity after suspending one of its candidates for posting a photo online in which he appears to make a Nazi salute.

    The party's leader, Nigel Farage, admitted this morning there had been problems with some candidates, but insisted there were only "a handful".


    The real Fruitcake and Nutcase is Cammo. By trying to be all things to all people he has pleased none. Those close supporters that he still has are the rind on the big fat Turquoise cake.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    More comfort from the BoE on mortgage applications

    The Bank of England released figures for mortgage applications in March which showed a continuing upward trend.

    The number of UK mortgages approved for house purchases came in above expectations, the Bank of England (BoE) revealed on Tuesday.

    The figure rose to 53,504, compared to 51,947 in February, and 1,000 higher than the number pencilled in by analysts.


    Looks like Osborne's plans to stabilise house prices and stimulate house building are showing early signs of success.
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    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    @MikeK

    "The YouGov poll for the National Policy Monitor found voters gave the Prime Minister an average of just 3.5 out of 10, compared to 5.1 in May 2010."

    Are there any between these two points?
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,482
    Mortgage lending and lending to small business both on the rise: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10027205/Recovery-hopes-boosted-by-lending-figures.html

    Should be good for growth.

    "Bank officials have said that the FLS would take time to work its way through to small businesses, but the March data provided evidence data that it is finally having some effect. As well as the experiencing the first rise in lending in 18 months, small businesses saw their borrowing costs fall."

    The sums involved are still too small but Q1 might just be as bad as it gets in 2013. If so, it will be interesting to see what the effect on the borrowing figures might be. What are the chances of the deficit being under £100bn this financial year? The economy is definitely on the up. Not very up but up.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tim said:

    @sam

    Could Priti be a runner at a nice price for next Mayor of London? Or is she too young?

    She's not too young, she's far too right wing to get elected to a London-wide position.

    Too Hindu for Tower Hamlets ?
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    @tim
    Priti Patel is not bad looking too, that may make the young bloods vote for her, in London or elsewhere.
  • Options
    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    ...........and if Priti went over to UKIP, like her dad is supposed to have done: that would create a storm too. ;)
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    samsam Posts: 727
    edited April 2013
    MikeK said:

    @tim
    Priti Patel is not bad looking too, that may make the young bloods vote for her, in London or elsewhere.

    I think it would be good for racial harmony if a right wing non white person, but female may be better, got into a position of authority

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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,525
    MikeK said:

    @tim
    Priti Patel is not bad looking too, that may make the young bloods vote for her, in London or elsewhere.

    She looks OK :)
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,525
    tim said:

    @sam

    Could Priti be a runner at a nice price for next Mayor of London? Or is she too young?

    She's not too young, she's far too right wing to get elected to a London-wide position.

    Didn't London vote for Boris last year?
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    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    @MikeK When I last spoke to her (although that was almost a year ago), Ms Patel gave no indication of having lost faith in the Conservatives - which is, I think, a decisive factor in defections.

    @Sunil_Prasannan She's considerably to the right of Boris - a bit to the right of what most people think Boris represents, and considerably to the right of what he actually does.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Not even a double dip by 2014 and growth figures upgraded by 0.5% pa - bad news for rEd's GE spinners:

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jeremywarner/100024327/nevermind-the-triple-dip-recession-the-double-dip-may-have-been-an-illusion-too/

    "The double dip which occurred in the last quarter of 2011 and the first quarter of 2012, always was quite shallow, and in any case is being progressively revised away by subsequent ONS adjustments to the data. In fact, it only requires a quite marginal further revision to one of these quarters to eradicate it completely.

    But even if this doesn't occur in the months ahead, it will certainly happen in 2014, when the Office for National Statistics is due to change the way in which it calculates the national accounts to take account of investment in research and development and certain intangibles such as intellectual property.

    As it happens, R and D is one of the few things that grew right through the original Great Recession. Investment in software fell initially, but has subsequently risen quite strongly, while R and D never fell at all. In nominal terms, both are now some 10 per cent higher than pre-crisis levels. It's tangible investment in bricks and mortor, plant and machinery which has taken the real pounding."
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    pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    I agree that Priti Patel is quite hot. Unforunately she struck me as coming over as a bloodless PR flack when I saw her on QT about a year ago. In the interests of non-partisanship I recall that I described Sarah Brown as a bloodless PR flack here a few years ago while expressing incomprehension about her supposed appeal.


    Moreover, Ms Patel struck me as being entirely at sea when challenged by the QT mob about her orthodoxies. I'm sure she is bright enough and, as pointed out, she is still young in political terms to learn but PB Tories looking for a new Great She Elephant must, I fear, look elsewhere.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,525
    tim said:

    @sam

    Cameron isn't keen on promoting state educated women

    Do you think the Labour Party will have a lady leader during your life-time?
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    pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    @tim

    FPT you said that you would continue to use the comparison between Brit retirees in Spain and E European migrants to the UK, even though we had, I thought, agreed that they are very different cases. I can't quite see how that makes sense.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    tim said:

    @sam

    Cameron isn't keen on promoting state educated women

    Do you think the Labour Party will have a lady leader during your life-time?
    Will the Labour party have one person one vote in tim's lifetime ?
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited April 2013

    tim said:

    @sam

    Cameron isn't keen on promoting state educated women

    Do you think the Labour Party will have a lady leader during your life-time?
    Tim would say: "When Thatcher was selected, Cameron wasn't around yet!"

    And also: "We already selected a female mayoral candidate: Nicky Gavron. Even if she never stood"
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    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    edited April 2013
    @TGOHF

    Precise estimations of GDP to the 0.1% are a bit of a mugs game. Better to judge progress by unemployment/employment figures where Osborne has done better than expected and public sector net borrowing, where things are a bit worse than expected, although subject to revision and if most of the UKs growth is coming from R&D, for instance, then companies will be getting a tax deduction rather than paying tax - in the short term....
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,525
    edited April 2013

    tim said:

    @sam

    Cameron isn't keen on promoting state educated women

    Do you think the Labour Party will have a lady leader during your life-time?
    Tim would say: "When Thatcher was selected, Cameron wasn't around yet!"
    Andrea, ironic that the evil baby-eating party elected a female leader, while the Labour Party never have!
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    pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    @SeanT

    FPT - Queen of Sheba Ethiopian restaurant on Fortress Rd for your undiscovered treasures quest.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    And the good news for Osborne and the UK keeps marching on

    Lloyds Banking Group posted better first quarter results than expected by market analyst this morning.

    The highlights were profits before exceptional items at £1.5 bn compared to £0.5 bn last year. This was almost a third up on median market estimates.

    Better news still was that provisions fell by 40% to £1 bn, with no additions for mis-selling PPI.

    Almost all key performance indicators improved: net interest margin increased; operating costs were reduced; tier 1 capital increased. Non core assets were reduced by over £6 bn and overseas operations cut back through asset sales designed to focus the group back on the UK market.

    The markets responded by pushing the value of Lloyds shares up by over 4% today taking their rise this year to 16,5%.

    Lloyds shares remain below the £0.61 level at which Gordon Brown purchased them, but the gap is closing fast with the current price at nearly £0.56. Analysts believe that Lloyds may return to paying dividends in 2014.

    At the beginning of March this year, Osborne indicated that the government would start selling shares in Lloyds once the £0.61 per share value booked in the National Accounts was reached. It now looks as this trigger will be reached this year a year earlier than formerly anticipated.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tim said:

    @TGOHF

    So why has Osborne's deficit plan failed if things are better than you thought?

    Moving 1M jobs from public to private sector helps the deficit every year from now until Labour re-employ them. All those public sector pension liabilities not being paid this year.

    Your static data point thinking is limiting.
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited April 2013

    tim said:

    @sam

    Cameron isn't keen on promoting state educated women

    Do you think the Labour Party will have a lady leader during your life-time?
    Tim would say: "When Thatcher was selected, Cameron wasn't around yet!"
    Andrea, ironic that the evil baby-eating party elected a female leader, while the Labour Party never have!
    They must have liked her because she would have eaten all children from single mothers on benefits in a inner London council estate.
    Shirley Porter would have backed the policy as a good way to decrease the future Labour vote

    The 2 women who run for Labour leadership are Margaret Beckett in 1994 and Diane Abbott in 2010. They both finished last (and they were the most left wing choices in both years)
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    tim said:

    @TGOHF

    So why has Osborne's deficit plan failed if things are better than you thought?

    It hasn't tim.

    Osborne is still meeting his fiscal mandate on the deficit (Cyclically Adjusted Current Budget).

    Next?

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    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    @Andrea,

    Can you remember if Dianne Abbott received less MP votes in the leadership election than she had MP nominations?
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    @JonathanD

    Yes, she received much less votes than nominations. Even David Miliband nominted her IIRC
  • Options
    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    @Andrea

    Thanks. Any female politicians tipped to reach the top in Italian politics?

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    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Naturally if GDP is revised up, the debt (and deficit - both structural and cyclical) to GDP ratio falls - and both of those are critical numbers for the government to minimise.
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    South Shields election game closes 7pm Wed

    Afternoon all - for anyone that would like to enter the game, the link is below:

    www.electiongame.co.uk/south-shields/

    Entries will close at 7pm tomorrow.

    Also went to see This House at the NT, can echo OGH's comments - it was excellent, well worth going to if you can grab one of the few remaining seats.

    Finally for any PB'ers who are into music, The Staves are outstanding IMHO - was at the front row of their Scala gig last week.

    Cheers,


    DC
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,573
    AveryLP said:

    And the good news for Osborne and the UK keeps marching on

    Lloyds Banking Group posted better first quarter results than expected by market analyst this morning.

    The highlights were profits before exceptional items at £1.5 bn compared to £0.5 bn last year. This was almost a third up on median market estimates.

    Better news still was that provisions fell by 40% to £1 bn, with no additions for mis-selling PPI.

    Almost all key performance indicators improved: net interest margin increased; operating costs were reduced; tier 1 capital increased. Non core assets were reduced by over £6 bn and overseas operations cut back through asset sales designed to focus the group back on the UK market.

    The markets responded by pushing the value of Lloyds shares up by over 4% today taking their rise this year to 16,5%.

    Lloyds shares remain below the £0.61 level at which Gordon Brown purchased them, but the gap is closing fast with the current price at nearly £0.56. Analysts believe that Lloyds may return to paying dividends in 2014.

    At the beginning of March this year, Osborne indicated that the government would start selling shares in Lloyds once the £0.61 per share value booked in the National Accounts was reached. It now looks as this trigger will be reached this year a year earlier than formerly anticipated.

    Mr Pole I was about to tell you the sun is shining in Warwickshire, but I'm afraid you'll claim Osborne did it.

    As ever claiming credit for something he hasn't done simply works against him.
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited April 2013
    The actual 1st preferences votes for Abbott were:

    Ms D Abbott MP
    Ms K Clark MP
    Mr J Corbyn MP
    Mr K Hopkins MP
    Mr J McDonnell MP
    Ms L Riordan MP
    Mr M Wood MP


    She got a second preference from:

    Mr M Caton MP (EdM as 1 choice)
    Mr D Lammy MP (DavidM)
    Rt Hon M Meacher MP (EdM)
    Ms V Vaz MP (DavidM)

    Third preference from

    Rt Hon T Clarke MP
    Mr P P Flynn MP
    Mr K Mahmood MP
    Ms C Onwurah MP

    4th preference by

    Mr J Cruddas MP (Burngham as last choice)
    Miss G Doyle MP (Burnham)
    Ms S Gilmore MP (Balls)
    Rt Hon T J Jowell MP (Balls)
    Mr A Mitchell MP (Burnham)
    Mr G M Morris MP (DavidM)
    Mr J Trickett MP (Burnham)
    Rt Hon K Vaz MP (Burnham)
    Mr D Watts MP (DavidM)


    Last choice for the rest of PLP

    Voting her second prefs to Ed or David made so little sense. Anyway.
    The 9 having her as 4th is probably just a sign they really hated the candidate they put last.
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    The MPs who voted for Beckett as leader in 1994

    Diane Julie Abbott (Hackney North and Stoke Newington)
    John Eric Austin-Walker (Woolwich)
    Anthony Louis Banks (Newham North West)
    Harold Barnes (North East Derbyshire)
    John Dominic Battle (Leeds West)
    Margaret Mary Beckett (Derby South)
    Roland Boyes (Houghton and Washington)
    Nicholas Hugh Brown (Newcastle-upon-Tyne East)
    Dennis Andrew Canavan (Falkirk West)
    Malcolm George Richardson Chisholm (Edinburgh Leith)
    Harry Michael Cohen (Leyton)
    Jeremy Bernard Corbyn (Islington North)
    Jean Ann Corston (Bristol East)
    James Mackay Cousins (Newcastle-upon-Tyne Central)
    Angela Eagle (Wallasey)
    Derek John Fatchett (Leeds Central)
    Maria Fyfe (Glasgow Maryhill)
    Neil Francis Gerrard (Walthamstow)
    Llinos Golding (Newcastle-under-Lyme)
    Mildred Gordon (Bow and Poplar)
    Bernard Alexander Montgomery Grant (Tottenham)
    Peter Gerald Hain (Neath)
    John Heppell (Nottingham East)
    Helen Jackson (Sheffield Hillsborough)
    Lynne Mary Jones (Birmingham Selly Oak)
    Terence Lewis (Worsley)
    Kenneth Robert Livingstone (Brent East)
    Edward Loyden (Liverpool Garston)
    Andrew Stuart Mackinlay (Thurrock)
    Maxwell Francis Madden (Bradford West)
    Alice Mahon (Halifax)
    Dr John Marek (Wrexham)
    James Marshall (Leicester South)
    William Michie (Sheffield Heeley)
    Peter Leslie Pike (Burnley)
    Gordon Prentice (Pendle)
    Dawn Primarolo (Bristol South)
    Kenneth Purchase (Wolverhampton North East)
    Barbara Maureen Roche (Hornsey and Wood Green)
    Terence Henry Rooney (Bradford North)
    Brian Charles John Sedgemore (Hackney South and Shoreditch)
    Clare Short (Birmingham Ladywood)
    Alan Simpson (Nottingham South)
    Dennis Edward Skinner (Bolsover)
    Nigel John Spearing (Newham South)
    George William Stevenson (Stoke-on-Trent South)
    Simon Patrick Tipping (Sherwood)
    Audrey Wise (Preston)
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    JonathanD said:

    @Andrea

    Thanks. Any female politicians tipped to reach the top in Italian politics?

    There's a woman leading a party...a 2% party.
    But looking at the 2 main blocks....on the right, it's still Silvio centric. On the left, I can't see any of the current women challenging for the leadership right now.

    There're 7 ministers in the new cabinet: justice, foreign affairs, agricolture, health, education, integration, equal opportunities & sport,
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    samsam Posts: 727
    How do we bet the party to have the next female leader? Lets make some prices max bet £5
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    The following people voted for Prescott over Blair as leader

    Katherine Adams (Paisley North)
    Anthony Neil Wedgwood Benn (Chesterfield)
    Andrew Francis Bennett (Denton and Reddish)
    Roger Leslie Berry (Kingswood)
    Richard George Caborn (Sheffield Central)
    Ronald Campbell (Blyth Valley)
    Michael Clapham (Barnsley West and Penistone)
    Eric Lionel Clarke (Midlothian)
    Francis Cook (Stockton North)
    Tam Dalyell (Linlithgow)
    Ian Graham Davidson (Glasgow Govan)
    David John Denzil Davies (Llanelli)
    Terence Anthony Gordon Davis (Birmingham Hodge Hill)
    Donald Dixon (Jarrow)
    Brian Donohoe (Cunninghame South)
    Gwyneth Patricia Dunwoody (Crewe and Nantwich)
    Kenneth Eastham (Manchester Blackley)
    William Etherington (Sunderland North)
    Norman Anthony Godman (Greenock and Port Glasgow)
    Thomas Graham (Renfrew West and Inverclyde)
    Michael Thomas Hall (Warrington South)
    David Martin Hinchliffe (Wakefield)
    James Hood (Clydesdale)
    Eric Douglas Harvey Hoyle (Warrington North)
    Robert Hughes (Aberdeen North)
    Eric Evlyn Illsley (Barnsley Central)
    Martyn David Jones (Clwyd South West)
    Joan Lestor (Eccles)
    Robert Kenneth Litherland (Manchester Central)
    Anthony Joseph Lloyd (Stretford)
    John McAllion (Dundee East)
    Ian McCartney (Makerfield)
    William McKelvey (Kilmarnock and Loudoun)
    Gordon James McMaster (Paisley South)
    David Marshall (Glasgow Shettleston)
    Michael Hugh Meacher (Oldham West)
    Joseph Alan Meale (Mansfield)
    Robert Parry (Liverpool Riverside)
    Terry Patchett (Barnsley East)
    Colin Pickthall (West Lancashire)
    Raymond Powell (Ogmore)
    John Leslie Prescott (Kingston-upon-Hull East)
    Martin Redmond (Don Valley)
    Llewellyn Thomas Smith (Blaenau Gwent)
    Peter Charles Snape (West Bromwich East)
    Joan Lorraine Walley (Stoke-on-Trent North)
    Robert Nelson Wareing (Liverpool West Derby)
    David Julian Winnick (Walsall North)
    James Wray (Glasgow Provan)
    David Wright Young (Bolton South East)
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited April 2013
    sam said:

    How do we bet the party to have the next female leader? Lets make some prices max bet £5

    SNP probably - the nippy sweetie Sturgeon looks like a shoe in (or boot in her case).


    Will Eck stand down after the referendum is lost or stay on until the next Holyrood elections ?

  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013

    AveryLP said:

    And the good news for Osborne and the UK keeps marching on

    Lloyds Banking Group posted better first quarter results than expected by market analyst this morning.

    The highlights were profits before exceptional items at £1.5 bn compared to £0.5 bn last year. This was almost a third up on median market estimates.

    Better news still was that provisions fell by 40% to £1 bn, with no additions for mis-selling PPI.

    Almost all key performance indicators improved: net interest margin increased; operating costs were reduced; tier 1 capital increased. Non core assets were reduced by over £6 bn and overseas operations cut back through asset sales designed to focus the group back on the UK market.

    The markets responded by pushing the value of Lloyds shares up by over 4% today taking their rise this year to 16,5%.

    Lloyds shares remain below the £0.61 level at which Gordon Brown purchased them, but the gap is closing fast with the current price at nearly £0.56. Analysts believe that Lloyds may return to paying dividends in 2014.

    At the beginning of March this year, Osborne indicated that the government would start selling shares in Lloyds once the £0.61 per share value booked in the National Accounts was reached. It now looks as this trigger will be reached this year a year earlier than formerly anticipated.

    Mr Pole I was about to tell you the sun is shining in Warwickshire, but I'm afraid you'll claim Osborne did it.

    As ever claiming credit for something he hasn't done simply works against him.
    But Osborne did do it, Mr. Brooke.

    We all saw him do the 'Warwickshire raindance'.

    It was on the videoclip which tim posted claiming to show George skipping.
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    Interesting Labour leaflet going out in South Shields. Shows they might be a bit concerned about UKIP (still expect them to hold it though):

    https://twitter.com/sephrbrown/status/329213256969371648
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    MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    sam said:

    MikeK said:

    @tim
    Priti Patel is not bad looking too, that may make the young bloods vote for her, in London or elsewhere.

    I think it would be good for racial harmony if a right wing non white person, but female may be better, got into a position of authority

    Balkanized politics is not about race or skin colour it's about ethnicity - which tribe is someone from. If you want to bet on it you have to look at in terms of ethnic blocs and coalitions of ethnic blocs modified by socio-economic status.

    It's why Nate Silver gets US elections right. You just need to know what percentage of each ethnic group votes which way and then count the heads.

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    samsam Posts: 727

    Interesting Labour leaflet going out in South Shields. Shows they might be a bit concerned about UKIP (still expect them to hold it though):

    https://twitter.com/sephrbrown/status/329213256969371648

    'Mams!' how quaint!

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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Interesting Labour leaflet going out in South Shields. Shows they might be a bit concerned about UKIP (still expect them to hold it though):

    https://twitter.com/sephrbrown/status/329213256969371648

    Point 2 is a belter of twisting the facts - Lib Dem esque.
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    samsam Posts: 727
    TGOHF said:

    Interesting Labour leaflet going out in South Shields. Shows they might be a bit concerned about UKIP (still expect them to hold it though):

    https://twitter.com/sephrbrown/status/329213256969371648

    Point 2 is a belter of twisting the facts - Lib Dem esque.
    I thought they were raising the threshhold to £13k?

    What is the lowest rate of tax? I thought it was 25%?

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    corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Apparently Jonny Wilkinsons ruled himself out of the Lions tour.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Patel Snr is standing down as Ukip candidate says the sun.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Will we get any results on thursday night, or will everyone be counting on friday?
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tim said:

    @TGOHF

    Income millionaires would get a 130k pa tax cut under Farages tax plan when that leaflet was written.

    Nice - what a huge boost for growth - rEd must approve ?

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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    TGOHF said:

    Patel Snr is standing down as Ukip candidate says the sun.

    but was he standing in Thursday's elections?
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714

    Will we get any results on thursday night, or will everyone be counting on friday?

    Lincolnshire, Dorset , Essex, Hampshire, Somerset and Gloucestershire will all count overnight.

    In the other counties, some Districts may count overnight and others on Friday. So the declaration time given is Friday because they have to wait for the last divisions. However, I don't have a full list of what the single Districts are doing.
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    RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413

    Interesting Labour leaflet going out in South Shields. Shows they might be a bit concerned about UKIP (still expect them to hold it though):

    I like the bit at the bottom about the UKIP guy being a 'career politican'.

    How short a memory do they think South Shields voters have?
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,573
    edited April 2013
    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    And the good news for Osborne and the UK keeps marching on

    Lloyds Banking Group posted better first quarter results than expected by market analyst this morning.

    The highlights were profits before exceptional items at £1.5 bn compared to £0.5 bn last year. This was almost a third up on median market estimates.

    Better news still was that provisions fell by 40% to £1 bn, with no additions for mis-selling PPI.

    Almost all key performance indicators improved: net interest margin increased; operating costs were reduced; tier 1 capital increased. Non core assets were reduced by over £6 bn and overseas operations cut back through asset sales designed to focus the group back on the UK market.

    The markets responded by pushing the value of Lloyds shares up by over 4% today taking their rise this year to 16,5%.

    Lloyds shares remain below the £0.61 level at which Gordon Brown purchased them, but the gap is closing fast with the current price at nearly £0.56. Analysts believe that Lloyds may return to paying dividends in 2014.

    At the beginning of March this year, Osborne indicated that the government would start selling shares in Lloyds once the £0.61 per share value booked in the National Accounts was reached. It now looks as this trigger will be reached this year a year earlier than formerly anticipated.

    Mr Pole I was about to tell you the sun is shining in Warwickshire, but I'm afraid you'll claim Osborne did it.

    As ever claiming credit for something he hasn't done simply works against him.
    But Osborne did do it, Mr. Brooke.

    We all saw him do the 'Warwickshire raindance'.

    It was on the videoclip which tim posted claiming to show George skipping.
    Ah I think I can see the problem. You see a rain dance brings rain, now check if Osborne has been doing an economic stagnation dance, I suspect that's where you've been going wrong. You need to get him to do a growth one.
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited April 2013
    tim said:

    Andrea

    Bushey South.

    Sounds like an old school porn star.

    It's too late for him to pull out of Bushey now isn't it?

    Thanks

    Patel, Sushil Kantibhai "Krishna Krupa", 63 Gills Hill Lane, Radlett, Hertfordshire, WD7 8DG
    UK Independence Party (UK I P)

    2009
    Con 65.1% LD 18.8 Lab 7.8 Green 7.7%
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    I predicted a 7,000 Lab maj on Election Guide (Lab in mid 50s, UKIP between 20-30 on a 37% turnout)..should I be concerned that Labour felt necessary going out with a full attack leaflet on UKIP 2 days before polling day when 2/3 of votes have probably already been cast by post?

    Or is it normal precautions?

    Anyway, I think I have been too low with turnout.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,267
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    It's not very surprising that Labour are clear favourites.

    F1: my mini-review of the first four races and the relative competitiveness of the team's is up here: http://politicalbetting.blogspot.co.uk/2013/04/2013-early-season-review.html
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited April 2013
    I have been away, I have just listened to Ed Miliband's WATO interview. Car crash doesn't come into it, it is so feeble, it is barely credible that a LOTO could be so bad.
    He needs some lessons in Economics. His 5 point plan sounds like the Soviet 5 year plan. Hopeless.
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited April 2013
    He was asked " are things that bad that noone can make a difference " his answer was "emphatically yes", so he isn't the answer thats for certain, out of his own mouth.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,482

    He was asked " are things that bad that noone can make a difference " his answer was "emphatically yes", so he isn't the answer thats for certain, out of his own mouth.

    A rare moment of truth from our political classes. No wonder people laughed.

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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited April 2013
    TGOHF said:

    tim said:

    @Carlotta

    The South Shields leaflet is slagging off UKIP, the Eastleigh leaflet had your darling MMR nut Hutchings all over the Kipper colours trying persuade Tories she was the real Kipper with endorsement's from "UKIP MEP Marta Andreason" who by that time wasn't a UKIP MEP.

    Is that a cha cha cha you are doing on that pin head ?
    I think its the rumbled rumba...

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    Lewis_DuckworthLewis_Duckworth Posts: 90
    edited April 2013
    I have kept a keen eye on South Shields this afternoon. From the North Shields bank, South Shields was looking its best on a glorious sunny day.
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @SquareRoot

    ' I have just listened to Ed Miliband's WATO interview. Car crash doesn't come into it, it is so feeble, it is barely credible that a LOTO could be so bad.'

    At least Ed can claim to be the first politician to have been savaged by Martha Kearney.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    @tim - so you wish to add 'negative campaigning' to the Labour South Shields charge sheet? So be it.....
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    RogerRoger Posts: 19,463
    edited April 2013
    OT. I listened to Clegg with Martha today. Whatever happened to the sparkly young thing with the Gucci shoes and Armani suits. The true internationalist and the real heir to Blair turned into an evasive stammering shadow who insisted on reading out his pre prepared points. He sounded washed up.

    For balance I flicked through Ed's attempt yesterday and to the person I chided for calling it a car crash-apologies. He sounded demented. Either he needs to raise his game a lot or he'll lose

    (PS Martha's very good)
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,267
    Mr. Roger, you're not the only chap to commit this sin, but it's still awful.

    Pre-prepared is a vile Brownist tautology. Of course something's prepared beforehand. One can hardly prepare afterwards.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,482
    This spat between France and Germany is getting tasty: http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100024341/germany-will-think-twice-before-saving-france-next-time/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    The abuse the French are throwing at Mrs Merkel is pretty silly as the point when they are going to need her help really isn't far off as yet another lefty bandwagon heads for the inevitable conclusion. David Cameron seems to be taking full advantage which should be a considerable help in his fight to save the City.

    The EU President meanwhile says it is not right to blame frau Merkel as 26 other heads of state are also involved in decision making: http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/eu-parliament-president-says-french-criticism-of-merkel-is-unfair-a-897321.html

    Bet that caused a few scratched heads around Europe. When we were last asked about (please insert)? Really, we have a say in this?
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited April 2013

    @tim - so you wish to add 'negative campaigning' to the Labour South Shields charge sheet? So be it.....

    http://www.by-elections.co.uk/ealing/eslab09a.jpg

    the poor Jody tried to do a joke in Hartlepool
    http://by-elections.co.uk/hartlepool/labour8a.jpg
    http://by-elections.co.uk/hartlepool/labour13a.jpg

    One of the worst
    http://www.by-elections.co.uk/hodge04/labhod0409a.jpg
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    samsam Posts: 727
    tim said:

    UKIP and Tory comedy continues

    Tim Gatt ‏@TimGattITV 2m
    VIDEO Suspended UKIP candidate re "Nazi" pic: "My friend was taking a photograph of me pretending to be a houseplant" http://www.itv.com/news/westcountry/story/2013-04-30/ukip-candidate-suspended/

    Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 5m
    Sushil Patel tells @Sun_Politics he is standing down as a UKIP candidate...UKIP issue statement insisting he isn't...the plot thickens

    Hmmm unconvinced



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    RogerRoger Posts: 19,463
    edited April 2013
    @Lap_Dancer
    "Mr. Roger, you're not the only chap to commit this sin, but it's still awful."

    Good heavens they're not meant to be read! Just an exercise in letting off steam though sorry for the offense. I'll do my graffiti somewhere more discreet
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,267
    Mr. L, aren't we the ones who saved France last time?

    Mr. Roger, I fear the wish is father of the thought when it comes to my misspelt name :p [I didn't meant to have a go at you, I just really dislike pre-prepared. It makes as much sense as post-ante-aftermath].
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    How short a memory do they think South Shields voters have?

    They are probably banking on about 7 days effective recall I suspect...
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,482

    Mr. L, aren't we the ones who saved France last time?

    Mr. Roger, I fear the wish is father of the thought when it comes to my misspelt name :p [I didn't meant to have a go at you, I just really dislike pre-prepared. It makes as much sense as post-ante-aftermath].

    I still get a chuckle from the LBJ quote referred to on here the other day when asked to remove his troops from French soil.

    But I think the article is referring to the fact that the mighty Bundesbank were willing to protect the French Frank in a way that (thank goodness) they were not willing to protect the pound on Black Wednesday.

    All too soon, as the inevitable lefty collapse comes to a crisis France is going to need help in the bond market. Will the Germans allow the ECB to intervene on the scale that would be required? Not sure, and that in itself makes it all the more likely.

    At least the Foreign Office will be pleased.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,525
    edited April 2013
    tim said:

    I didn't do a Nazi salute, my arm was hacked. #ukipexcuses

    #ukipexcuses I was only obeying orders!

    Do you think Ed Balls had an excuse?

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1286627/Ed-Balls-forgets-Tory-Oxford-dressed-Nazi.html
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Roger said:

    (PS Martha's very good)

    Yes - polite, but persistent - I imagine it a bit like being grilled by an Aunt who knows you're lying but is too polite to point it out directly....Cameron on tomorrow...

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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,449

    tim said:

    I didn't do a Nazi salute, my arm was hacked. #ukipexcuses

    #ukipexcuses I was only obeying orders!

    Do you think Ed Balls had an excuse?

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1286627/Ed-Balls-forgets-Tory-Oxford-dressed-Nazi.html
    I never get this. We can have comedy shows with Nazis a-plenty in them (e.g. Allo Allo), but when someone wears one to a fancy dress party (similarly in jest), everyone gets super uptight about it. I don't think anyone here is seriously going to suggest Ed Balls is a Nazi because of that picture.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Separate story on Scottish Separatists separation over separate currency:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-22358755

    "The chairman of the campaign to deliver a yes vote in next year's independence referendum said he would personally prefer Scotland to adopt its own currency after independence."
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,121

    Roger said:

    (PS Martha's very good)

    Yes - polite, but persistent - I imagine it a bit like being grilled by an Aunt who knows you're lying but is too polite to point it out directly....Cameron on tomorrow...

    Agreed, it's a much more effective approach than the aggression of Paxman and Humphries - and incidentally I think it's a long time since either of them had a scalp. If the interviewer comes across as unpleasant and egotistical, most people are going to sympathise with the interviewee.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,449
    edited April 2013
    tim said:

    @RobD

    It's a standard PB Tory response.

    Mention a Nazi salute and someone posts that photo (without a salute in it)
    Mention the Tories issues with ethnic minority voters someone shout's Phil Woolas.
    Mention Dave's all male public school circle someone says "Thatcher was a woman"
    Mention the NHS, someone shouts "Stafford"

    Damn, no one sent me the "Big Book of PB Tory Retorts", what am I paying this membership fee for anyway?! ;)
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    We thought Priti Patel was pretty right-wing but it turns out her father is even more so.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,297
    Standard Labour response crocodile tears over the NHS - faux concern over Stafford, but did I mention the nurses the lovely, lovely dancing nurses, the lovely, lovely, dancing voting Labour nurses.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Du-nfWPSNlk
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,482

    Roger said:

    (PS Martha's very good)

    Yes - polite, but persistent - I imagine it a bit like being grilled by an Aunt who knows you're lying but is too polite to point it out directly....Cameron on tomorrow...

    Agreed, it's a much more effective approach than the aggression of Paxman and Humphries - and incidentally I think it's a long time since either of them had a scalp. If the interviewer comes across as unpleasant and egotistical, most people are going to sympathise with the interviewee.
    Not sure Mr Entwistle would agree with that. That was the most devastating interview I have heard in recent times although in fairness what made it so devastating was that it was quiet and understated rather than rude and constantly interrupting.

    Andrew Neil asking what the point of Vince Cable was is another one that come's to mind.

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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    edited April 2013

    Roger said:

    (PS Martha's very good)

    Yes - polite, but persistent - I imagine it a bit like being grilled by an Aunt who knows you're lying but is too polite to point it out directly....Cameron on tomorrow...

    Agreed, it's a much more effective approach than the aggression of Paxman and Humphries - and incidentally I think it's a long time since either of them had a scalp. If the interviewer comes across as unpleasant and egotistical, most people are going to sympathise with the interviewee.
    Be fair, Humphries had the BBC DG the other month, whose name eludes me ( says it all ), but in terms of a contest I recall it was more a tethered goat type of event really, rather than a "fair fight".
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,297
    @Tim

    There is a Fulking Parish Council in Sussex.

    http://www.midsussex.gov.uk/media/Fulking.pdf
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited April 2013
    Alex Massie on the challenge UKIP represents to the Tories:

    http://www.thinkscotland.org/todays-thinking/articles.html?read_full=12121&article=www.thinkscotland.org

    "All British political parties live in fear of schism. From the perspective of the eurosceptic right, UKIP's ability to cause trouble in a good cause risks leaving the right's house divided. The only way to ensure an EU referendum is to vote Conservative at the next election. But a strong UKIP forever nipping at Tory heels is the only way to ensure David Cameron fulfils his promise to renegotiate Britain's relationship with Brussels. This, then, is a matter of some delicacy. Smash UKIP and Cameron might wriggle free of his commitments; back UKIP and you may make Ed Miliband Prime Minister.

    Perhaps. Nevertheless, all these Tories fretting about the votes they may lose to UKIP on the right fail to put an estimate on the number they might lose from the centre if the party is seen to be lurching to embrace UKIPism. There is no point winning votes on the disaffected right if those ballots are matched by lost votes from the horrified middle. Moreover, there is every possibility that, in general, UKIP's supporters are disproportionately likely to live in safe Tory seats rather than in the marginals that will determine the outcome of the next election. It can hardly be stressed too often that where you win your votes matters almost as much as how many votes you win.

    In other words, UKIP's gains this week are much less important than the Tory party's response to those gains (and to Tory losses). If it's nerve holds it can see this storm out; if it panics, breaks and run it will find the party routed in the much more important battles still to come."
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,525
    tim said:

    @RobD

    Mention Dave's all male public school circle someone says "Thatcher was a woman"

    @tim

    Do you think the Labour Party will ever elect a female leader?
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    currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    Totally o/t how can dortmund be 9/2 to win tonights game. They murdered madrid last week, if Man U can score at the Bernabau then Dortmund who are in my view better than Man U certainly can. Spanish football is overated this year. I remember how Dortmund destroyed Man City for the first half in the qualifying game, 9/2 is crazy, I make them a 2/1 shot. This will be my biggest bet for a while. This is not a tip as I am a very bad tipster and fully expect to lose!!!
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322


    Perhaps. Nevertheless, all these Tories fretting about the votes they may lose to UKIP on the right fail to put an estimate on the number they might lose from the centre if the party is seen to be lurching to embrace UKIPism.

    This whole analysis depends on a simplistic model of voters existing on a linear right-left spectrum. That UKIP win votes from Labour, but not really the Lib Dems, shows this is garbage.

    The actual solution is to embrace popular UKIP policies where support exists on the centre and centre-right (replacing EU membership with a trade relationship, limiting immigration, tougher criminal sentences) while staying away from the more marginal right wing positions (flat tax, deeper cuts, more carbon emissions).

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    DavidL said:

    Roger said:

    (PS Martha's very good)

    Yes - polite, but persistent - I imagine it a bit like being grilled by an Aunt who knows you're lying but is too polite to point it out directly....Cameron on tomorrow...

    Agreed, it's a much more effective approach than the aggression of Paxman and Humphries - and incidentally I think it's a long time since either of them had a scalp. If the interviewer comes across as unpleasant and egotistical, most people are going to sympathise with the interviewee.
    Not sure Mr Entwistle would agree with that. That was the most devastating interview I have heard in recent times although in fairness what made it so devastating was that it was quiet and understated rather than rude and constantly interrupting.

    Andrew Neil asking what the point of Vince Cable was is another one that come's to mind.

    Andrew Neil kebabbing Diane Abbot on TW about her sons schooling was another classic.

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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    tim said:

    @RobD

    Mention Dave's all male public school circle someone says "Thatcher was a woman"

    @tim

    Do you think the Labour Party will ever elect a female leader?
    Jack Dromey could be on the 'all women' shortlist.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited April 2013
    And as a reality check on politics....the BBC 6 O'Clock news leads with three different murders (the Welsh child killer, the push chair arsonist and the American convicted, then acquitted in Italy), then the new Dutch monarch.....
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    dr_spyn said:

    @Tim

    There is a Fulking Parish Council in Sussex.

    http://www.midsussex.gov.uk/media/Fulking.pdf

    So what! Is it the Fulking name that sets you off? ;)

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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Regarding the French-German spat. There are 332 million people in the Eurozone. The total population of the southern bloc including France is 195 million. The reason they can't have political integration is that Germany would get horrendously outvoted.
This discussion has been closed.