Options
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » South Shields by-election: Round-up of betting prices
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » South Shields by-election: Round-up of betting prices
Ladbrokes South Shields Ukipshares:0-10 7/110-20 6/420-30 13/830-40 4/140+ 20/1 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
UCAS figures for the year so far show non-EU student applications up 6.3% on last year. Looks like the coalition are doing a good job of getting immigration under control but not discouraging foreign students.
http://www.ucas.ac.uk/documents/stats/2013_applicantfigures_mar.pdf
David Cameron’s personal popularity is at its lowest level since the 2010 general election, according to new research released today.
The YouGov poll for the National Policy Monitor found voters gave the Prime Minister an average of just 3.5 out of 10, compared to 5.1 in May 2010.
Ed Miliband's own ratings have also fallen since he became Labour leader, from 4.4 to 3.75 out of 10 last month.
Elsewhere, support for UKIP has hit 14% ahead of this week's local council elections. Another YouGov poll for the Sun saw Labour slip slightly to 39%, well ahead of the Tories on 30%, with the Lib Dems back on 11%.
The Sun also reports that Conservative insiders fear the party could lose as many as 800 councils seats in Thursday's elections.
But UKIP received some bad publicity after suspending one of its candidates for posting a photo online in which he appears to make a Nazi salute.
The party's leader, Nigel Farage, admitted this morning there had been problems with some candidates, but insisted there were only "a handful".
The real Fruitcake and Nutcase is Cammo. By trying to be all things to all people he has pleased none. Those close supporters that he still has are the rind on the big fat Turquoise cake.
The Bank of England released figures for mortgage applications in March which showed a continuing upward trend.
The number of UK mortgages approved for house purchases came in above expectations, the Bank of England (BoE) revealed on Tuesday.
The figure rose to 53,504, compared to 51,947 in February, and 1,000 higher than the number pencilled in by analysts.
Looks like Osborne's plans to stabilise house prices and stimulate house building are showing early signs of success.
"The YouGov poll for the National Policy Monitor found voters gave the Prime Minister an average of just 3.5 out of 10, compared to 5.1 in May 2010."
Are there any between these two points?
Should be good for growth.
"Bank officials have said that the FLS would take time to work its way through to small businesses, but the March data provided evidence data that it is finally having some effect. As well as the experiencing the first rise in lending in 18 months, small businesses saw their borrowing costs fall."
The sums involved are still too small but Q1 might just be as bad as it gets in 2013. If so, it will be interesting to see what the effect on the borrowing figures might be. What are the chances of the deficit being under £100bn this financial year? The economy is definitely on the up. Not very up but up.
Priti Patel is not bad looking too, that may make the young bloods vote for her, in London or elsewhere.
@Sunil_Prasannan She's considerably to the right of Boris - a bit to the right of what most people think Boris represents, and considerably to the right of what he actually does.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jeremywarner/100024327/nevermind-the-triple-dip-recession-the-double-dip-may-have-been-an-illusion-too/
"The double dip which occurred in the last quarter of 2011 and the first quarter of 2012, always was quite shallow, and in any case is being progressively revised away by subsequent ONS adjustments to the data. In fact, it only requires a quite marginal further revision to one of these quarters to eradicate it completely.
But even if this doesn't occur in the months ahead, it will certainly happen in 2014, when the Office for National Statistics is due to change the way in which it calculates the national accounts to take account of investment in research and development and certain intangibles such as intellectual property.
As it happens, R and D is one of the few things that grew right through the original Great Recession. Investment in software fell initially, but has subsequently risen quite strongly, while R and D never fell at all. In nominal terms, both are now some 10 per cent higher than pre-crisis levels. It's tangible investment in bricks and mortor, plant and machinery which has taken the real pounding."
Moreover, Ms Patel struck me as being entirely at sea when challenged by the QT mob about her orthodoxies. I'm sure she is bright enough and, as pointed out, she is still young in political terms to learn but PB Tories looking for a new Great She Elephant must, I fear, look elsewhere.
FPT you said that you would continue to use the comparison between Brit retirees in Spain and E European migrants to the UK, even though we had, I thought, agreed that they are very different cases. I can't quite see how that makes sense.
And also: "We already selected a female mayoral candidate: Nicky Gavron. Even if she never stood"
Precise estimations of GDP to the 0.1% are a bit of a mugs game. Better to judge progress by unemployment/employment figures where Osborne has done better than expected and public sector net borrowing, where things are a bit worse than expected, although subject to revision and if most of the UKs growth is coming from R&D, for instance, then companies will be getting a tax deduction rather than paying tax - in the short term....
FPT - Queen of Sheba Ethiopian restaurant on Fortress Rd for your undiscovered treasures quest.
Lloyds Banking Group posted better first quarter results than expected by market analyst this morning.
The highlights were profits before exceptional items at £1.5 bn compared to £0.5 bn last year. This was almost a third up on median market estimates.
Better news still was that provisions fell by 40% to £1 bn, with no additions for mis-selling PPI.
Almost all key performance indicators improved: net interest margin increased; operating costs were reduced; tier 1 capital increased. Non core assets were reduced by over £6 bn and overseas operations cut back through asset sales designed to focus the group back on the UK market.
The markets responded by pushing the value of Lloyds shares up by over 4% today taking their rise this year to 16,5%.
Lloyds shares remain below the £0.61 level at which Gordon Brown purchased them, but the gap is closing fast with the current price at nearly £0.56. Analysts believe that Lloyds may return to paying dividends in 2014.
At the beginning of March this year, Osborne indicated that the government would start selling shares in Lloyds once the £0.61 per share value booked in the National Accounts was reached. It now looks as this trigger will be reached this year a year earlier than formerly anticipated.
Your static data point thinking is limiting.
Shirley Porter would have backed the policy as a good way to decrease the future Labour vote
The 2 women who run for Labour leadership are Margaret Beckett in 1994 and Diane Abbott in 2010. They both finished last (and they were the most left wing choices in both years)
Osborne is still meeting his fiscal mandate on the deficit (Cyclically Adjusted Current Budget).
Next?
Can you remember if Dianne Abbott received less MP votes in the leadership election than she had MP nominations?
Yes, she received much less votes than nominations. Even David Miliband nominted her IIRC
Thanks. Any female politicians tipped to reach the top in Italian politics?
Afternoon all - for anyone that would like to enter the game, the link is below:
www.electiongame.co.uk/south-shields/
Entries will close at 7pm tomorrow.
Also went to see This House at the NT, can echo OGH's comments - it was excellent, well worth going to if you can grab one of the few remaining seats.
Finally for any PB'ers who are into music, The Staves are outstanding IMHO - was at the front row of their Scala gig last week.
Cheers,
DC
http://www.electiongame.co.uk/south-shields/
As ever claiming credit for something he hasn't done simply works against him.
Ms D Abbott MP
Ms K Clark MP
Mr J Corbyn MP
Mr K Hopkins MP
Mr J McDonnell MP
Ms L Riordan MP
Mr M Wood MP
She got a second preference from:
Mr M Caton MP (EdM as 1 choice)
Mr D Lammy MP (DavidM)
Rt Hon M Meacher MP (EdM)
Ms V Vaz MP (DavidM)
Third preference from
Rt Hon T Clarke MP
Mr P P Flynn MP
Mr K Mahmood MP
Ms C Onwurah MP
4th preference by
Mr J Cruddas MP (Burngham as last choice)
Miss G Doyle MP (Burnham)
Ms S Gilmore MP (Balls)
Rt Hon T J Jowell MP (Balls)
Mr A Mitchell MP (Burnham)
Mr G M Morris MP (DavidM)
Mr J Trickett MP (Burnham)
Rt Hon K Vaz MP (Burnham)
Mr D Watts MP (DavidM)
Last choice for the rest of PLP
Voting her second prefs to Ed or David made so little sense. Anyway.
The 9 having her as 4th is probably just a sign they really hated the candidate they put last.
Diane Julie Abbott (Hackney North and Stoke Newington)
John Eric Austin-Walker (Woolwich)
Anthony Louis Banks (Newham North West)
Harold Barnes (North East Derbyshire)
John Dominic Battle (Leeds West)
Margaret Mary Beckett (Derby South)
Roland Boyes (Houghton and Washington)
Nicholas Hugh Brown (Newcastle-upon-Tyne East)
Dennis Andrew Canavan (Falkirk West)
Malcolm George Richardson Chisholm (Edinburgh Leith)
Harry Michael Cohen (Leyton)
Jeremy Bernard Corbyn (Islington North)
Jean Ann Corston (Bristol East)
James Mackay Cousins (Newcastle-upon-Tyne Central)
Angela Eagle (Wallasey)
Derek John Fatchett (Leeds Central)
Maria Fyfe (Glasgow Maryhill)
Neil Francis Gerrard (Walthamstow)
Llinos Golding (Newcastle-under-Lyme)
Mildred Gordon (Bow and Poplar)
Bernard Alexander Montgomery Grant (Tottenham)
Peter Gerald Hain (Neath)
John Heppell (Nottingham East)
Helen Jackson (Sheffield Hillsborough)
Lynne Mary Jones (Birmingham Selly Oak)
Terence Lewis (Worsley)
Kenneth Robert Livingstone (Brent East)
Edward Loyden (Liverpool Garston)
Andrew Stuart Mackinlay (Thurrock)
Maxwell Francis Madden (Bradford West)
Alice Mahon (Halifax)
Dr John Marek (Wrexham)
James Marshall (Leicester South)
William Michie (Sheffield Heeley)
Peter Leslie Pike (Burnley)
Gordon Prentice (Pendle)
Dawn Primarolo (Bristol South)
Kenneth Purchase (Wolverhampton North East)
Barbara Maureen Roche (Hornsey and Wood Green)
Terence Henry Rooney (Bradford North)
Brian Charles John Sedgemore (Hackney South and Shoreditch)
Clare Short (Birmingham Ladywood)
Alan Simpson (Nottingham South)
Dennis Edward Skinner (Bolsover)
Nigel John Spearing (Newham South)
George William Stevenson (Stoke-on-Trent South)
Simon Patrick Tipping (Sherwood)
Audrey Wise (Preston)
But looking at the 2 main blocks....on the right, it's still Silvio centric. On the left, I can't see any of the current women challenging for the leadership right now.
There're 7 ministers in the new cabinet: justice, foreign affairs, agricolture, health, education, integration, equal opportunities & sport,
Katherine Adams (Paisley North)
Anthony Neil Wedgwood Benn (Chesterfield)
Andrew Francis Bennett (Denton and Reddish)
Roger Leslie Berry (Kingswood)
Richard George Caborn (Sheffield Central)
Ronald Campbell (Blyth Valley)
Michael Clapham (Barnsley West and Penistone)
Eric Lionel Clarke (Midlothian)
Francis Cook (Stockton North)
Tam Dalyell (Linlithgow)
Ian Graham Davidson (Glasgow Govan)
David John Denzil Davies (Llanelli)
Terence Anthony Gordon Davis (Birmingham Hodge Hill)
Donald Dixon (Jarrow)
Brian Donohoe (Cunninghame South)
Gwyneth Patricia Dunwoody (Crewe and Nantwich)
Kenneth Eastham (Manchester Blackley)
William Etherington (Sunderland North)
Norman Anthony Godman (Greenock and Port Glasgow)
Thomas Graham (Renfrew West and Inverclyde)
Michael Thomas Hall (Warrington South)
David Martin Hinchliffe (Wakefield)
James Hood (Clydesdale)
Eric Douglas Harvey Hoyle (Warrington North)
Robert Hughes (Aberdeen North)
Eric Evlyn Illsley (Barnsley Central)
Martyn David Jones (Clwyd South West)
Joan Lestor (Eccles)
Robert Kenneth Litherland (Manchester Central)
Anthony Joseph Lloyd (Stretford)
John McAllion (Dundee East)
Ian McCartney (Makerfield)
William McKelvey (Kilmarnock and Loudoun)
Gordon James McMaster (Paisley South)
David Marshall (Glasgow Shettleston)
Michael Hugh Meacher (Oldham West)
Joseph Alan Meale (Mansfield)
Robert Parry (Liverpool Riverside)
Terry Patchett (Barnsley East)
Colin Pickthall (West Lancashire)
Raymond Powell (Ogmore)
John Leslie Prescott (Kingston-upon-Hull East)
Martin Redmond (Don Valley)
Llewellyn Thomas Smith (Blaenau Gwent)
Peter Charles Snape (West Bromwich East)
Joan Lorraine Walley (Stoke-on-Trent North)
Robert Nelson Wareing (Liverpool West Derby)
David Julian Winnick (Walsall North)
James Wray (Glasgow Provan)
David Wright Young (Bolton South East)
Will Eck stand down after the referendum is lost or stay on until the next Holyrood elections ?
We all saw him do the 'Warwickshire raindance'.
It was on the videoclip which tim posted claiming to show George skipping.
https://twitter.com/sephrbrown/status/329213256969371648
It's why Nate Silver gets US elections right. You just need to know what percentage of each ethnic group votes which way and then count the heads.
What is the lowest rate of tax? I thought it was 25%?
In the other counties, some Districts may count overnight and others on Friday. So the declaration time given is Friday because they have to wait for the last divisions. However, I don't have a full list of what the single Districts are doing.
How short a memory do they think South Shields voters have?
Patel, Sushil Kantibhai "Krishna Krupa", 63 Gills Hill Lane, Radlett, Hertfordshire, WD7 8DG
UK Independence Party (UK I P)
2009
Con 65.1% LD 18.8 Lab 7.8 Green 7.7%
Or is it normal precautions?
Anyway, I think I have been too low with turnout.
It's not very surprising that Labour are clear favourites.
F1: my mini-review of the first four races and the relative competitiveness of the team's is up here: http://politicalbetting.blogspot.co.uk/2013/04/2013-early-season-review.html
You seem to have greeted Labour doing the same with commendable equanimity.....
He needs some lessons in Economics. His 5 point plan sounds like the Soviet 5 year plan. Hopeless.
' I have just listened to Ed Miliband's WATO interview. Car crash doesn't come into it, it is so feeble, it is barely credible that a LOTO could be so bad.'
At least Ed can claim to be the first politician to have been savaged by Martha Kearney.
http://order-order.com/2013/04/30/exclusive-what-really-happened-with-priti-patels-dad/
For balance I flicked through Ed's attempt yesterday and to the person I chided for calling it a car crash-apologies. He sounded demented. Either he needs to raise his game a lot or he'll lose
(PS Martha's very good)
Pre-prepared is a vile Brownist tautology. Of course something's prepared beforehand. One can hardly prepare afterwards.
The abuse the French are throwing at Mrs Merkel is pretty silly as the point when they are going to need her help really isn't far off as yet another lefty bandwagon heads for the inevitable conclusion. David Cameron seems to be taking full advantage which should be a considerable help in his fight to save the City.
The EU President meanwhile says it is not right to blame frau Merkel as 26 other heads of state are also involved in decision making: http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/eu-parliament-president-says-french-criticism-of-merkel-is-unfair-a-897321.html
Bet that caused a few scratched heads around Europe. When we were last asked about (please insert)? Really, we have a say in this?
the poor Jody tried to do a joke in Hartlepool
http://by-elections.co.uk/hartlepool/labour8a.jpg
http://by-elections.co.uk/hartlepool/labour13a.jpg
One of the worst
http://www.by-elections.co.uk/hodge04/labhod0409a.jpg
"Mr. Roger, you're not the only chap to commit this sin, but it's still awful."
Good heavens they're not meant to be read! Just an exercise in letting off steam though sorry for the offense. I'll do my graffiti somewhere more discreet
Mr. Roger, I fear the wish is father of the thought when it comes to my misspelt name
But I think the article is referring to the fact that the mighty Bundesbank were willing to protect the French Frank in a way that (thank goodness) they were not willing to protect the pound on Black Wednesday.
All too soon, as the inevitable lefty collapse comes to a crisis France is going to need help in the bond market. Will the Germans allow the ECB to intervene on the scale that would be required? Not sure, and that in itself makes it all the more likely.
At least the Foreign Office will be pleased.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1286627/Ed-Balls-forgets-Tory-Oxford-dressed-Nazi.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-22358755
"The chairman of the campaign to deliver a yes vote in next year's independence referendum said he would personally prefer Scotland to adopt its own currency after independence."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Du-nfWPSNlk
Andrew Neil asking what the point of Vince Cable was is another one that come's to mind.
There is a Fulking Parish Council in Sussex.
http://www.midsussex.gov.uk/media/Fulking.pdf
http://www.thinkscotland.org/todays-thinking/articles.html?read_full=12121&article=www.thinkscotland.org
"All British political parties live in fear of schism. From the perspective of the eurosceptic right, UKIP's ability to cause trouble in a good cause risks leaving the right's house divided. The only way to ensure an EU referendum is to vote Conservative at the next election. But a strong UKIP forever nipping at Tory heels is the only way to ensure David Cameron fulfils his promise to renegotiate Britain's relationship with Brussels. This, then, is a matter of some delicacy. Smash UKIP and Cameron might wriggle free of his commitments; back UKIP and you may make Ed Miliband Prime Minister.
Perhaps. Nevertheless, all these Tories fretting about the votes they may lose to UKIP on the right fail to put an estimate on the number they might lose from the centre if the party is seen to be lurching to embrace UKIPism. There is no point winning votes on the disaffected right if those ballots are matched by lost votes from the horrified middle. Moreover, there is every possibility that, in general, UKIP's supporters are disproportionately likely to live in safe Tory seats rather than in the marginals that will determine the outcome of the next election. It can hardly be stressed too often that where you win your votes matters almost as much as how many votes you win.
In other words, UKIP's gains this week are much less important than the Tory party's response to those gains (and to Tory losses). If it's nerve holds it can see this storm out; if it panics, breaks and run it will find the party routed in the much more important battles still to come."
Do you think the Labour Party will ever elect a female leader?
The actual solution is to embrace popular UKIP policies where support exists on the centre and centre-right (replacing EU membership with a trade relationship, limiting immigration, tougher criminal sentences) while staying away from the more marginal right wing positions (flat tax, deeper cuts, more carbon emissions).