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First post-Sturgeon IndyRef poll sees no change – politicalbetting.com
First post-Sturgeon IndyRef poll sees no change – politicalbetting.com
?NEW #indyref2 voting intention for @TheScotsman First IndyRef2 VI since Sturgeon resigned? Yes 44% (=)? No 46% (=)? Undec. 9% (=)w/o Undec.? Yes 49% (=)? No 51% (=)1,004 Scottish adults, 15-17 Feb(change from 16-21 Dec) pic.twitter.com/0UPtLmTXPP
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Edit: and fieldwork overlapping the resignation story.
HYUFD I totally disagree with but he's a pleasant chap, likewise Richard on certain issues just to give two examples.
But the figures are not huigely different given the uncertainties, and note the markedly better Scottish output of council houses. It'll be interesting to see why Labour don't advocate the same policy in England, or for that matter Wales. They're a UK party without divisions (vide Elec. Comm.).
https://unherd.com/thepost/replika-users-mourn-the-loss-of-their-chatbot-girlfriends/
Some company built an AI sexbot on the back of LLM (chatGPTesque) technology, charged them $70 a month for it, then changed the terms of service so it won't get "intimate" with them any more, now people are suicidal. Reddit is full of posts of people who feel like their girlfriend has dumped them. The service had 10m users.
From the article: "It is easy to mock these people, but they are at the sharp end of a trend that has seen us all nervously draw away from the risky, messy world of real human interactions and attempt to mimic them with ersatz virtual ones."
I have to say I am finding this whole AI chat bot all hype all a bit over the top.
Debt free purchase with investment in both men's and womens teams, plus new players with emphasis on youth and will be called the 1992 after the class of 92
No connection with PSG and will build new stadium and training complex
When work gets a bit less crazy, I should probably take Leon's advice and go to Mexico for some Ayahusca...
Hope you're doing well!
It will be very interesting how this plays out over the coming months and especially once a new leader takes over, but it must have had a negative effect indyref2 in the short term
The difference between say 2% and 2.5% is 20% proportionally, but 0.5% on the stock volume - and the number of say job-tied (or other category) houses excluded is small on the stock but adds to the far smaller variation figures.
If there are % differences, it may when activism started (Earlier in England, I think - as far back as 1992 for the launch of Action on Empty Homes, as it is now), or societal differences, or anything. And things like particular campaigns locally make a difference.
If the number *is* a little higher in Sco, that would go towards appropriateness for a stronger policy, perhaps.
🟡 SNP 42% (-1)
🔴 LAB 32% (+2)
🔵 CON 17% (-2)
🟠 LD 6% (-)
Seats (new boundaries, +/- vs 2019):
🟡 SNP 45 (-3)
🔴 LAB 10 (+9)
🟠 LD 2 (-)
🔵 CON 0 (-6)
Via @Savanta_UK, 15-17 Feb (+/- vs Dec 2022)
https://twitter.com/leftiestats/status/1626662086221651972?s=46&t=5eCF0RfSA41UPWiBriYI8A
Hate to say it but Labour majority now represents real value.
Labour run Wales. They could implement it right away.
They spent GE19 re-weighting the polls so I would really be very averse to using them.
The president of the SNP has denied that money has gone “missing” from party accounts as police continue to investigate what happened to more than £600,000 of donations.
https://archive.is/bm7SH
@NicolaSturgeon changed Scotland...
For the better: 59%
No difference: 8%
For the worse: 31%
https://twitter.com/markmcgeoghegan/status/1626653186873298962?s=46&t=5eCF0RfSA41UPWiBriYI8A
Forbes: +13
Robertson: +7
Sarwar: +1
McAllan: +1
Flynn: -1
Gray: -1
Cherry: -3
Swinney: -4
Brown: -5
Robison: -7
Yousaf: -17
Ross: -44
But pay attention to the high levels of unfamiliarity:
https://twitter.com/markmcgeoghegan/status/1626653198063702032?s=46&t=5eCF0RfSA41UPWiBriYI8A
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/feb/17/met-police-officer-tells-court-dna-on-womans-breast-result-of-hand-shake
SNP 42 seats (-6)
SLab 10 seats (+9)
SCon 3 seats (-3)
SLD 2 seats (nc)
So not a big difference.
But I also think some of the Scotterati are guilty of head-in-the-sandism.
It’s half time, and a nil-all draw. SNP have dominated but have just lost their star striker.
Labour have looked uninspired, but seem to be gaining in confidence.
There may be more to it than that, though.
https://order-order.com/2023/02/17/axed-libdem-candidates-crowd-funder-to-sue-party-flops/
And much younger than I’d expected, since afaik he has adult kids. In fact he looks roughly the same age as me.
Im slightly terrified to think how I’d present on camera.
If a new Labour government disappoints, and does so quickly, the 2026 Holyrood election could see a big win for the SNP, and then IndyRef2 would be back on the agenda.
There are lots of different ways things might turn out.
The last contest last autumn failed to produce a coalition Government which could command a majority in the National assembly.
We Continue the Change (PP) and Democratic Bulgaria (DB) have formed an electoral alliance and they are narrowly ahead of the GERB-SDS alliance. The Movement of Rights and Reforms, Revival and the Coalition for Bulgaria all look set to be returned to the assembly but the Party of former Prime Minister Yanev is now just under the 4% threshold so his 12 seats will be divided between the other parties.
It's hard to see how another poll is going to shift the dedlock with neither of the leading electoral blocs able to find the support from other parties needed to get beyond the 121-seat threshold.
Another thing - that figure of 27K is so suspiciously close to the NRS report as to make me wonder. Sort of thing an intern would snap up from the internet. But that would include council houses etc which you'd think Labour would exclude from their scheme. In which case, you'd expect a considerable drop to give the real figure (also because 2021 to 2022 change, and delay backlog cleared of processing house sales/council house moves).
The empty houses are defined from council tax records, it seems. Can't see that that excludes council houses.
https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files//statistics/household-estimates/2021/house-est-21-methodology.pdf
Whether her accession would offend some within the party is a different matter entirely.
From Savanta's Twitter feed. This doesn't seem to match the figures posted earlier. Am I missing something?
Their best result seemed to come from a novel tactic of saying nothing, from wiki:
During the election campaign period, the party essentially refused to campaign or issue promises, largely staying out of the political debate. This was initially shown to be a winning move, as the party experienced a surge in popularity.[11][12] Having faced criticism for never attending parliamentary sessions during the previous convocation, Trifonov did not put himself forward as a candidate, stating that it was "not his place" and that his job would be to "take on responsibility" from outside the National Assembly.[13] In the July 2021 parliamentary election, ITN polled narrowly ahead of GERB, thus winning a plurality, though not a majority, in the National Assembly
[ FPTP ]
🟡 SNP 43% (-1)
🔴 LAB 30% (+2)
🔵 CON 17% (-1)
🟠 LD 8% (-)
[ PR ]
🟡 SNP 32% (-)
🔴 LAB 27% (+3)
🔵 CON 16% (-2)
🟢 GRN 14% (+1)
🟠 LD 9% (-1)
SNP/Greens would have 23-seat majority.
Via @Savanta_UK, 15-17 Feb (+/- vs
https://twitter.com/leftiestats/status/1626665794477207552?s=46&t=5eCF0RfSA41UPWiBriYI8A
If you mean the poll on the previous header, that's for Westminster where the smaller parties don't get a fair showing. It doesn't help that the words "General election" are used, without specifying what kind of GE, [edit] in the original source.
I try to make sure that my recorded teaching dates quickly, don't want to be made redundant by the medical school while still lecturing like some ghost on the Internet forever.
When they say that, do you actually believe it?
We are always assured that we own the lecture content, but having them recorded does not sit easily with everyone. I don’t think we are all getting sacked, I mean who would mark the exams?
Bear in mind too that at the 2026 Holyrood elections the Tories will likely be in opposition and more likely to get protest vote while the SNP will still be in government at Holyrood and Labour will likely be in government at Westminster
Robertson 5/4
Forbes 10/3
McAllan 10/1
Brown 12/1
Yousaf 12/1
Cole-Hamilton (Lib Dem) 14/1
Denham 18/1
…
Sarwar (Lab) 40/1
…
Ross (Con) 100/1
With the casualisation of the university workforce I am not surprised if the Uni keeps the lectures year after year. Hence the importance of slipping things in like: "These findings are likely to be obsolete in 2024 when the outcomes of Trial X on drug Y are released"
Hard to rerun that lecture indefinitely.
I expect the English Green vote to be up next week too thanks to Corbynites defecting from Labour after his deselection
I also find them irritating in the way they are a sort of SNP-lite wannabe, like that civ in the Culture who really really want to be the Culture but also think they're slightly better than the Culture (is it the GFCF or suchlike?).
In party political analogies it's probably not one that gets made very often to be fair, but I am cynical about everything.