Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

The betting chances of a pre-2025 IndyRef move to almost zero – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited February 2023 in General
imageThe betting chances of a pre-2025 IndyRef move to almost zero – politicalbetting.com

This morning’s shock news that Nicola Sturgeon is stepping down as the Scottish first minister and leader of the SNP inevitably reduces what chances there were of an early second independence referendum.

Read the full story here

«134

Comments

  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,997
    "First" to resort to a pb cliché
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,456
    Cliche avoidance tactic.
  • D:Ream
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,302
    edited February 2023
    FPT: @Jim_Miller posted an interesting stat, which I was rather taken aback by:

    Thanks to AlistairM for that link to the Spectator graphs by Michael Simmons. I had been looking for data on Sturgeon's time in office and those covered all but one of the variables I was looking for.

    The missing one? The total fertility rate in Scotland. " In 2020 the total fertility rate in Scotland was 1.29, the lowest it has been in this provided time period. From 2002 onwards the total fertility rate in Scotland increased from 1.47 to a peak of 1.76 in 2008. Since 2008 the total fertility rate in Scotland has fallen rapidly, with only a slight increase occurring between 2013 and 2014."

    (I have come to the conclusion, in recent years, that the two most important measures of a government's performance, domestically, are changes in life expectancy, and the total fertility rate. This seems obvious to me now, but it did not, a decade or two ago.)

    I'd bolden that bit in the middle if I knew how. A fall from 1.76 to 1.29 from 2008 to 2020 seems remarkable and bears further examination, I think.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,456
    The chance of a Ref2 were are are more or less zero. Not much change. The only possibility was that the Tories would hold one, sure of winning, to kill the project. Now we are too close to a GE for that, and anyway it would have taken courage.

    Labour stand to gain from SNP situation, with the only downside being if Kate Forbes were the new leader. This would be like the Tories betting on Kemi - which of course they declined.

    Both Kemi and Kate, if respectively leader of their party, FM/PM would definitely have an outcome and change things. The only problem being that the change would be unpredictable.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,470
    No Sindyref before the 2030s, possibly longer

    I’ve been saying it for ages. I’m right
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,877
    Cookie said:

    FPT: @Jim_Miller posted an interesting stat, which I was rather taken aback by:

    Thanks to AlistairM for that link to the Spectator graphs by Michael Simmons. I had been looking for data on Sturgeon's time in office and those covered all but one of the variables I was looking for.

    The missing one? The total fertility rate in Scotland. " In 2020 the total fertility rate in Scotland was 1.29, the lowest it has been in this provided time period. From 2002 onwards the total fertility rate in Scotland increased from 1.47 to a peak of 1.76 in 2008. Since 2008 the total fertility rate in Scotland has fallen rapidly, with only a slight increase occurring between 2013 and 2014."

    (I have come to the conclusion, in recent years, that the two most important measures of a government's performance, domestically, are changes in life expectancy, and the total fertility rate. This seems obvious to me now, but it did not, a decade or two ago.)

    I'd bolden that bit in the middle if I knew how. A fall from 1.76 to 1.29 from 2008 to 2020 seems remarkable and bears further examination, I think.
    It's significantly lower than rUK too. I suspect relative immigration levels, but never had time to dig into it properly.

    Note that the TFR is a weird concept - it's the average number of children each woman will have over the course of their life based on current birth rates.

    At the moment, it's inflated by the idea that lots women are delaying having children due to COVID or cultural change, and will have them when they are older. The problem is that they keep on just not having children, so the ONS have to keep revising the TFR downwards.

    TLDR: could be worse than it looks!
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,280
    edited February 2023
    Cookie said:

    Thanks to AlistairM for that link to the Spectator graphs by Michael Simmons. I had been looking for data on Sturgeon's time in office and those covered all but one of the variables I was looking for.

    The missing one? The total fertility rate in Scotland. " In 2020 the total fertility rate in Scotland was 1.29, the lowest it has been in this provided time period. From 2002 onwards the total fertility rate in Scotland increased from 1.47 to a peak of 1.76 in 2008. Since 2008 the total fertility rate in Scotland has fallen rapidly, with only a slight increase occurring between 2013 and 2014."

    (I have come to the conclusion, in recent years, that the two most important measures of a government's performance, domestically, are changes in life expectancy, and the total fertility rate. This seems obvious to me now, but it did not, a decade or two ago.)

    I'd bolden that bit in the middle if I knew how. A fall from 1.76 to 1.29 from 2008 to 2020 seems remarkable and bears further examination, I think.
    Here's the longer view graph for England and Wales;



    http://closer.ac.uk/data/total-fertility-rate/

    Presumably the big fall from '65 to '75 is the sexual revolution, the pill and all that. (Also, the big reason that children of boomers are going to struggle to pay the pensions of their parents.)

    The smaller but significant fall from 2012 to 2020 is economy-related, isn't it? People not feeling that they can afford to have kids.
  • algarkirk said:

    The chance of a Ref2 were are are more or less zero. Not much change. The only possibility was that the Tories would hold one, sure of winning, to kill the project. Now we are too close to a GE for that, and anyway it would have taken courage.

    Labour stand to gain from SNP situation, with the only downside being if Kate Forbes were the new leader. This would be like the Tories betting on Kemi - which of course they declined.

    Both Kemi and Kate, if respectively leader of their party, FM/PM would definitely have an outcome and change things. The only problem being that the change would be unpredictable.

    Kate Forbes is centre-right economically and is a social conservative. I don't think SLAB would mind her succeeding Sturgeon too much.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,003
    Can't believe the Arsenal City game is only on Amazon. God wouldn't allow this. No God.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,393

    Cookie said:

    Thanks to AlistairM for that link to the Spectator graphs by Michael Simmons. I had been looking for data on Sturgeon's time in office and those covered all but one of the variables I was looking for.

    The missing one? The total fertility rate in Scotland. " In 2020 the total fertility rate in Scotland was 1.29, the lowest it has been in this provided time period. From 2002 onwards the total fertility rate in Scotland increased from 1.47 to a peak of 1.76 in 2008. Since 2008 the total fertility rate in Scotland has fallen rapidly, with only a slight increase occurring between 2013 and 2014."

    (I have come to the conclusion, in recent years, that the two most important measures of a government's performance, domestically, are changes in life expectancy, and the total fertility rate. This seems obvious to me now, but it did not, a decade or two ago.)

    I'd bolden that bit in the middle if I knew how. A fall from 1.76 to 1.29 from 2008 to 2020 seems remarkable and bears further examination, I think.
    Here's the longer view graph for England and Wales;



    http://closer.ac.uk/data/total-fertility-rate/

    Presumably the big fall from '65 to '75 is the sexual revolution, the pill and all that. (Also, the big reason that children of boomers are going to struggle to pay the pensions of their parents.)

    The smaller but significant fall from 2012 to 2020 is economy-related, isn't it? People not feeling that they can afford to have kids.
    2020 was year of covid so may not be representative.

    There was a good recent article in the Guardian on the subject. Income doesn't seem to be critical as TFR down includes even the wealthy, nor is it simply women putting careers first. In large part it is that there is a dearth of worthwhile partners to have children with.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/feb/11/why-a-shortage-of-mr-rights-means-single-mothers-hold-the-key-to-the-falling-birthrate
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,302

    Cookie said:

    Thanks to AlistairM for that link to the Spectator graphs by Michael Simmons. I had been looking for data on Sturgeon's time in office and those covered all but one of the variables I was looking for.

    The missing one? The total fertility rate in Scotland. " In 2020 the total fertility rate in Scotland was 1.29, the lowest it has been in this provided time period. From 2002 onwards the total fertility rate in Scotland increased from 1.47 to a peak of 1.76 in 2008. Since 2008 the total fertility rate in Scotland has fallen rapidly, with only a slight increase occurring between 2013 and 2014."

    (I have come to the conclusion, in recent years, that the two most important measures of a government's performance, domestically, are changes in life expectancy, and the total fertility rate. This seems obvious to me now, but it did not, a decade or two ago.)

    I'd bolden that bit in the middle if I knew how. A fall from 1.76 to 1.29 from 2008 to 2020 seems remarkable and bears further examination, I think.
    Here's the longer view graph for England and Wales;



    http://closer.ac.uk/data/total-fertility-rate/

    Presumably the big fall from '65 to '75 is the sexual revolution, the pill and all that. (Also, the big reason that children of boomers are going to struggle to pay the pensions of their parents.)

    The smaller but significant fall from 2012 to 2020 is economy-related, isn't it? People not feeling that they can afford to have kids.
    Always fraught with danger and caveats trying to infer reasons for changes in birth rates over that sort of timescale, but that would be my guess, and specifically:
    - housing too expensive (how can we have kids if we don't have a room to put them in?)
    - childcare too expensive (included in which is the impossibility of almost any family to live on just one salary).
  • FORMER minister Ash Regan is expected to throw her hat into the ring to replace Nicola Sturgeon as SNP leader, The Herald understands….

    A source close to the MSP said she would enter the race when nominations opened.

    The Edinburgh Eastern MSP dramatically quit the government last October over plans to reform Scotland's gender recognition law.

    Her candidacy means the legislation will likely be a key part of the contest, with all but one of the other potential candidates having voted for the Bill last year.


    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/23324927.ash-regan-expected-enter-snp-leadership-race/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,064
    I have come to the conclusion, in recent years, that the two most important measures of a government's performance, domestically, are changes in life expectancy, and the total fertility rate.…

    Jim is a Boris enthusiast ?

    It otherwise seems a pretty odd stat to judge any given government by.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,803
    SKS on Corbyn

    What a lot of facile windbaggery from SKS He's simply an authoritarian who is servile to power, privilege & wealth who lied his way to the Labour leadership and subsequently de-democratised the party.

    Anyone who expects good from a liar like SKS is a fool. His Dad certainly made Tools
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,803

    D:Ream

    D Ream hate SKS
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,219

    SKS on Corbyn

    What a lot of facile windbaggery from SKS He's simply an authoritarian who is servile to power, privilege & wealth who lied his way to the Labour leadership and subsequently de-democratised the party.

    Anyone who expects good from a liar like SKS is a fool. His Dad certainly made Tools

    There's a clip of SKS being asked quickfire questions. He answers 'Davos' in reply to 'Westminster or Davos' - at least he's honest.
  • SKS on Corbyn

    What a lot of facile windbaggery from SKS He's simply an authoritarian who is servile to power, privilege & wealth who lied his way to the Labour leadership and subsequently de-democratised the party.

    Anyone who expects good from a liar like SKS is a fool. His Dad certainly made Tools

    We already had somebody play you today.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,393
    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Thanks to AlistairM for that link to the Spectator graphs by Michael Simmons. I had been looking for data on Sturgeon's time in office and those covered all but one of the variables I was looking for.

    The missing one? The total fertility rate in Scotland. " In 2020 the total fertility rate in Scotland was 1.29, the lowest it has been in this provided time period. From 2002 onwards the total fertility rate in Scotland increased from 1.47 to a peak of 1.76 in 2008. Since 2008 the total fertility rate in Scotland has fallen rapidly, with only a slight increase occurring between 2013 and 2014."

    (I have come to the conclusion, in recent years, that the two most important measures of a government's performance, domestically, are changes in life expectancy, and the total fertility rate. This seems obvious to me now, but it did not, a decade or two ago.)

    I'd bolden that bit in the middle if I knew how. A fall from 1.76 to 1.29 from 2008 to 2020 seems remarkable and bears further examination, I think.
    Here's the longer view graph for England and Wales;



    http://closer.ac.uk/data/total-fertility-rate/

    Presumably the big fall from '65 to '75 is the sexual revolution, the pill and all that. (Also, the big reason that children of boomers are going to struggle to pay the pensions of their parents.)

    The smaller but significant fall from 2012 to 2020 is economy-related, isn't it? People not feeling that they can afford to have kids.
    Always fraught with danger and caveats trying to infer reasons for changes in birth rates over that sort of timescale, but that would be my guess, and specifically:
    - housing too expensive (how can we have kids if we don't have a room to put them in?)
    - childcare too expensive (included in which is the impossibility of almost any family to live on just one salary).
    But TFR is down also in Scandinavian countries with less of a housing issue, and generous child support systems.

    Read the article that I linked to. It may be simply that empowered women are not willing to put up with what their mothers did.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,458
    My apologies for not putting the source in for those changes in fertility in Scotland. Here it is: https://www.statista.com/statistics/367781/total-fertility-rate-in-scotland/#:~:text=In 2020 the total fertility,peak of 1.76 in 2008.

    Dr. Foxy - You might be interested in Nicholas Eberstadt's latest. (It will dismay those who wish the US well, and delight those who don't.)

    NigelB - So you don't think "demography is destiny"?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,803
    FFS the Toolmakers Son is on TV with a PPB bigging up austerity with his odious nasal twin sister
  • @bigjohnowls are you keeping well mate?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,803
    90 Seconds of bullshit Red Toryism

    Gone before i could find my brick
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,778

    SKS on Corbyn

    What a lot of facile windbaggery from SKS He's simply an authoritarian who is servile to power, privilege & wealth who lied his way to the Labour leadership and subsequently de-democratised the party.

    Anyone who expects good from a liar like SKS is a fool. His Dad certainly made Tools

    We already had somebody play you today.
    Did he do a better job than ‘bigjohnowls’ ?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,803

    @bigjohnowls are you keeping well mate?

    @bigjohnowls are you keeping well mate?

    I was fine till 6pm now i need to find my blood pressure monitor!!!

    Actually I am involved in trying to get enough signatures on a petition to get my local Parish Council abolished
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,777
    Who are the SNP's Big Beasts, widely publicly known in Scotland, aside from Sturgeon and her coterie?

    Because any new SNP leader has to get his or her feet well under the table before risking a 2023/4 indy referendum. Not doing so really risks failure. Unless her replacement has strong public (positive) recognition already.
  • Theresa May killed Scottish nationalism stone dead in 2017.

    The thing is, if not now, when exactly will it be better for the SNP to hold a second referendum?
  • Lol.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,778
    TimS said:

    algarkirk said:

    MattW said:

    Here’s one take:

    Nicola Sturgeon is discarded, having served her purpose for the British Establishment once she obtained the UK Supreme Court judgment that Scotland could not hold a referendum on Independence.

    That fight was deliberately thrown by Sturgeon’s unionist Lord Advocate. After almost nine years of leading Independence supporters into a whole series of blind alleys, with promise after promise broken to deliver a referendum, and mandate after mandate squandered, she appears to have shattered the Independence movement.

    Throughout this nine years, Sturgeon was sustained and promoted by the unionist media.

    She pretended she wanted Independence, and they pretended to attack her for it.

    Meanwhile Sturgeon was given an extraordinarily easy ride over the real failings of her government.


    https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2023/02/nicola-sturgeon-used-and-discarded/

    It's a view ... :smiley:
    PB Cliche Bingo

    • Heavy lifting
    • Colour me …
    • IANAE/IANAL
    • Feature, not a bug
    • Ad hom
    • This
    • It’s a view
    • North of (to mean more than)
    • As I’ve said passim
    • One of those irregular verbs
    • Late of this parish
    • Nail. Head.
    • Unspoofable
    • …. (four dot ellipsis)
    • Living rent free in x’s heads



    Godwin's law

    Colour me… is the absolute worst.
    I find it hard to disagree.
  • FFS the Toolmakers Son is on TV with a PPB bigging up austerity with his odious nasal twin sister

    I'm setting up a PB fund for you to help you cope with the therapy you will need when Starmer becomes PM.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,997
    Cookie said:

    FPT: @Jim_Miller posted an interesting stat, which I was rather taken aback by:

    Thanks to AlistairM for that link to the Spectator graphs by Michael Simmons. I had been looking for data on Sturgeon's time in office and those covered all but one of the variables I was looking for.

    The missing one? The total fertility rate in Scotland. " In 2020 the total fertility rate in Scotland was 1.29, the lowest it has been in this provided time period. From 2002 onwards the total fertility rate in Scotland increased from 1.47 to a peak of 1.76 in 2008. Since 2008 the total fertility rate in Scotland has fallen rapidly, with only a slight increase occurring between 2013 and 2014."

    (I have come to the conclusion, in recent years, that the two most important measures of a government's performance, domestically, are changes in life expectancy, and the total fertility rate. This seems obvious to me now, but it did not, a decade or two ago.)

    I'd bolden that bit in the middle if I knew how. A fall from 1.76 to 1.29 from 2008 to 2020 seems remarkable and bears further examination, I think.
    The entire region has had this kind of fall. Since the late 2000s, TFR fell in England and Wales by around 0.30 - there will definitely be regions the size of Scotland where this is closer to 0.45 - in Ireland by around 0.45, and in Norway by a mighty 0.50.
  • Cookie said:

    Thanks to AlistairM for that link to the Spectator graphs by Michael Simmons. I had been looking for data on Sturgeon's time in office and those covered all but one of the variables I was looking for.

    The missing one? The total fertility rate in Scotland. " In 2020 the total fertility rate in Scotland was 1.29, the lowest it has been in this provided time period. From 2002 onwards the total fertility rate in Scotland increased from 1.47 to a peak of 1.76 in 2008. Since 2008 the total fertility rate in Scotland has fallen rapidly, with only a slight increase occurring between 2013 and 2014."

    (I have come to the conclusion, in recent years, that the two most important measures of a government's performance, domestically, are changes in life expectancy, and the total fertility rate. This seems obvious to me now, but it did not, a decade or two ago.)

    I'd bolden that bit in the middle if I knew how. A fall from 1.76 to 1.29 from 2008 to 2020 seems remarkable and bears further examination, I think.
    Here's the longer view graph for England and Wales;



    http://closer.ac.uk/data/total-fertility-rate/

    Presumably the big fall from '65 to '75 is the sexual revolution, the pill and all that. (Also, the big reason that children of boomers are going to struggle to pay the pensions of their parents.)

    The smaller but significant fall from 2012 to 2020 is economy-related, isn't it? People not feeling that they can afford to have kids.
    None of us are having enough sex.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,803

    FFS the Toolmakers Son is on TV with a PPB bigging up austerity with his odious nasal twin sister

    I'm setting up a PB fund for you to help you cope with the therapy you will need when Starmer becomes PM.
    Thanks I accept direct payments, credit cards and Cineworld food vouchers
  • Tran-dabi-dozi!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,803

    Cookie said:

    Thanks to AlistairM for that link to the Spectator graphs by Michael Simmons. I had been looking for data on Sturgeon's time in office and those covered all but one of the variables I was looking for.

    The missing one? The total fertility rate in Scotland. " In 2020 the total fertility rate in Scotland was 1.29, the lowest it has been in this provided time period. From 2002 onwards the total fertility rate in Scotland increased from 1.47 to a peak of 1.76 in 2008. Since 2008 the total fertility rate in Scotland has fallen rapidly, with only a slight increase occurring between 2013 and 2014."

    (I have come to the conclusion, in recent years, that the two most important measures of a government's performance, domestically, are changes in life expectancy, and the total fertility rate. This seems obvious to me now, but it did not, a decade or two ago.)

    I'd bolden that bit in the middle if I knew how. A fall from 1.76 to 1.29 from 2008 to 2020 seems remarkable and bears further examination, I think.
    Here's the longer view graph for England and Wales;



    http://closer.ac.uk/data/total-fertility-rate/

    Presumably the big fall from '65 to '75 is the sexual revolution, the pill and all that. (Also, the big reason that children of boomers are going to struggle to pay the pensions of their parents.)

    The smaller but significant fall from 2012 to 2020 is economy-related, isn't it? People not feeling that they can afford to have kids.
    None of us are having enough sex.
    I thought it was just me and CHB
  • FFS the Toolmakers Son is on TV with a PPB bigging up austerity with his odious nasal twin sister

    I'm setting up a PB fund for you to help you cope with the therapy you will need when Starmer becomes PM.
    Shouldn't we wait until Starmer wins his second term?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,777

    Cookie said:

    Thanks to AlistairM for that link to the Spectator graphs by Michael Simmons. I had been looking for data on Sturgeon's time in office and those covered all but one of the variables I was looking for.

    The missing one? The total fertility rate in Scotland. " In 2020 the total fertility rate in Scotland was 1.29, the lowest it has been in this provided time period. From 2002 onwards the total fertility rate in Scotland increased from 1.47 to a peak of 1.76 in 2008. Since 2008 the total fertility rate in Scotland has fallen rapidly, with only a slight increase occurring between 2013 and 2014."

    (I have come to the conclusion, in recent years, that the two most important measures of a government's performance, domestically, are changes in life expectancy, and the total fertility rate. This seems obvious to me now, but it did not, a decade or two ago.)

    I'd bolden that bit in the middle if I knew how. A fall from 1.76 to 1.29 from 2008 to 2020 seems remarkable and bears further examination, I think.
    Here's the longer view graph for England and Wales;



    http://closer.ac.uk/data/total-fertility-rate/

    Presumably the big fall from '65 to '75 is the sexual revolution, the pill and all that. (Also, the big reason that children of boomers are going to struggle to pay the pensions of their parents.)

    The smaller but significant fall from 2012 to 2020 is economy-related, isn't it? People not feeling that they can afford to have kids.
    I'm unsure ~'65 to ~'75 is just the sexual revolution. According to my parents at least (I wasn't around at the time), that was more hype than reality - my dad says he was too busy trying to make a living. Although he had three kids in that time.

    I do wonder how the climb from WW2 to 1950, and then after a dip to 1970, is due to the post-WW2 generation, which witnessed lots of people (mostly men) killed in the war.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,958
    Foxy said:

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Thanks to AlistairM for that link to the Spectator graphs by Michael Simmons. I had been looking for data on Sturgeon's time in office and those covered all but one of the variables I was looking for.

    The missing one? The total fertility rate in Scotland. " In 2020 the total fertility rate in Scotland was 1.29, the lowest it has been in this provided time period. From 2002 onwards the total fertility rate in Scotland increased from 1.47 to a peak of 1.76 in 2008. Since 2008 the total fertility rate in Scotland has fallen rapidly, with only a slight increase occurring between 2013 and 2014."

    (I have come to the conclusion, in recent years, that the two most important measures of a government's performance, domestically, are changes in life expectancy, and the total fertility rate. This seems obvious to me now, but it did not, a decade or two ago.)

    I'd bolden that bit in the middle if I knew how. A fall from 1.76 to 1.29 from 2008 to 2020 seems remarkable and bears further examination, I think.
    Here's the longer view graph for England and Wales;



    http://closer.ac.uk/data/total-fertility-rate/

    Presumably the big fall from '65 to '75 is the sexual revolution, the pill and all that. (Also, the big reason that children of boomers are going to struggle to pay the pensions of their parents.)

    The smaller but significant fall from 2012 to 2020 is economy-related, isn't it? People not feeling that they can afford to have kids.
    Always fraught with danger and caveats trying to infer reasons for changes in birth rates over that sort of timescale, but that would be my guess, and specifically:
    - housing too expensive (how can we have kids if we don't have a room to put them in?)
    - childcare too expensive (included in which is the impossibility of almost any family to live on just one salary).
    But TFR is down also in Scandinavian countries with less of a housing issue, and generous child support systems.

    Read the article that I linked to. It may be simply that empowered women are not willing to put up with what their mothers did.
    Yes, the article is interesting. It suggests supporting women to become single parents to increase the birth rate, rather than expecting them to settle with Mr Wrongs, or for the quality of men to improve.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,777

    Theresa May killed Scottish nationalism stone dead in 2017.

    The thing is, if not now, when exactly will it be better for the SNP to hold a second referendum?

    Article 50 killed Scottish nationalism.

    As may have been discussed recently, a referendum on Scottish independence is very much a reserved matter, and not in the gift of a new First Minister.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,526

    Foxy said:

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Thanks to AlistairM for that link to the Spectator graphs by Michael Simmons. I had been looking for data on Sturgeon's time in office and those covered all but one of the variables I was looking for.

    The missing one? The total fertility rate in Scotland. " In 2020 the total fertility rate in Scotland was 1.29, the lowest it has been in this provided time period. From 2002 onwards the total fertility rate in Scotland increased from 1.47 to a peak of 1.76 in 2008. Since 2008 the total fertility rate in Scotland has fallen rapidly, with only a slight increase occurring between 2013 and 2014."

    (I have come to the conclusion, in recent years, that the two most important measures of a government's performance, domestically, are changes in life expectancy, and the total fertility rate. This seems obvious to me now, but it did not, a decade or two ago.)

    I'd bolden that bit in the middle if I knew how. A fall from 1.76 to 1.29 from 2008 to 2020 seems remarkable and bears further examination, I think.
    Here's the longer view graph for England and Wales;



    http://closer.ac.uk/data/total-fertility-rate/

    Presumably the big fall from '65 to '75 is the sexual revolution, the pill and all that. (Also, the big reason that children of boomers are going to struggle to pay the pensions of their parents.)

    The smaller but significant fall from 2012 to 2020 is economy-related, isn't it? People not feeling that they can afford to have kids.
    Always fraught with danger and caveats trying to infer reasons for changes in birth rates over that sort of timescale, but that would be my guess, and specifically:
    - housing too expensive (how can we have kids if we don't have a room to put them in?)
    - childcare too expensive (included in which is the impossibility of almost any family to live on just one salary).
    But TFR is down also in Scandinavian countries with less of a housing issue, and generous child support systems.

    Read the article that I linked to. It may be simply that empowered women are not willing to put up with what their mothers did.
    Yes, the article is interesting. It suggests supporting women to become single parents to increase the birth rate, rather than expecting them to settle with Mr Wrongs, or for the quality of men to improve.
    Sounds more realistic as an aim, certainly.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,829
    Sandpit said:

    Theresa May killed Scottish nationalism stone dead in 2017.

    The thing is, if not now, when exactly will it be better for the SNP to hold a second referendum?

    Article 50 killed Scottish nationalism.

    As may have been discussed recently, a referendum on Scottish independence is very much a reserved matter, and not in the gift of a new First Minister.
    The absurd hubris that Scottish nationalism has been killed.
  • FFS the Toolmakers Son is on TV with a PPB bigging up austerity with his odious nasal twin sister

    I'm setting up a PB fund for you to help you cope with the therapy you will need when Starmer becomes PM.
    Shouldn't we wait until Starmer wins his second term?
    Or the third term. Could he be there longer than Blair
  • Cookie said:

    Thanks to AlistairM for that link to the Spectator graphs by Michael Simmons. I had been looking for data on Sturgeon's time in office and those covered all but one of the variables I was looking for.

    The missing one? The total fertility rate in Scotland. " In 2020 the total fertility rate in Scotland was 1.29, the lowest it has been in this provided time period. From 2002 onwards the total fertility rate in Scotland increased from 1.47 to a peak of 1.76 in 2008. Since 2008 the total fertility rate in Scotland has fallen rapidly, with only a slight increase occurring between 2013 and 2014."

    (I have come to the conclusion, in recent years, that the two most important measures of a government's performance, domestically, are changes in life expectancy, and the total fertility rate. This seems obvious to me now, but it did not, a decade or two ago.)

    I'd bolden that bit in the middle if I knew how. A fall from 1.76 to 1.29 from 2008 to 2020 seems remarkable and bears further examination, I think.
    Here's the longer view graph for England and Wales;



    http://closer.ac.uk/data/total-fertility-rate/

    Presumably the big fall from '65 to '75 is the sexual revolution, the pill and all that. (Also, the big reason that children of boomers are going to struggle to pay the pensions of their parents.)

    The smaller but significant fall from 2012 to 2020 is economy-related, isn't it? People not feeling that they can afford to have kids.
    None of us are having enough sex.
    Undersized accommodation, innit?



    I'm fairly sure there's a serious "Housing Theory Of Everything " point here, but given a choice between that and mocking The Telegraph, a man must do his duty.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,803
    "The Labour Party has changed," Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer says, "from a party of protest, to a party of public service"

    "[Labour] will never again be a party captured by narrow interests... if you don't like that, the door is open, and you can leave"

    So we can become narrower
  • OGH in the thread header: This morning’s shock news that Nicola Sturgeon is stepping down as the Scottish first minister and leader of the SNP inevitably reduces what chances there were of an early second independence referendum.

    It wasn't a surprise to the Scotch Experts.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,829
    edited February 2023
    While I agree that the chances of a Scottish referendum this decade have receded significantly, a solid 45% of the Scottish electorate are pro-indy and I’d say a majority of those have bought into a kind of fantasy economics in which “there are no downsides, only considerable upsides”, to coin a phrase.

    That’s not a stable equilibrium.

    It is not very hard at all to imagine the SNP holding the balance of power in 2029, even if 2024 now looks less likely.

    Constitutional reform is a strategic imperative for the British state.
  • While I agree that the chances of a Scottish referendum this decade have receded significantly, a solid 45% of the Scottish electorate are pro-indy and I’d say a majority of those have bought into a kind of fantasy economics in which “there are no downsides, only considerable upsides”, to coin a phrase.

    That’s not a stable equilibrium.

    It is not very hard at all to imagine the SNP holding the balance of power in 2029, even if 2024 now looks less likely.

    Constitutional reform is a strategic imperative for the British state.

    Who was your source last night?

    If they have any other news like that, send me a message.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,958

    Theresa May killed Scottish nationalism stone dead in 2017.

    The thing is, if not now, when exactly will it be better for the SNP to hold a second referendum?

    When they've managed to convince two-thirds of the population to support it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,915

    While I agree that the chances of a Scottish referendum this decade have receded significantly, a solid 45% of the Scottish electorate are pro-indy and I’d say a majority of those have bought into a kind of fantasy economics in which “there are no downsides, only considerable upsides”, to coin a phrase.

    That’s not a stable equilibrium.

    It is not very hard at all to imagine the SNP holding the balance of power in 2029, even if 2024 now looks less likely.

    Constitutional reform is a strategic imperative for the British state.

    Devomax ultimately has to be the answer and I expect a UK Labour government would push it through
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,803

    FFS the Toolmakers Son is on TV with a PPB bigging up austerity with his odious nasal twin sister

    I'm setting up a PB fund for you to help you cope with the therapy you will need when Starmer becomes PM.
    Shouldn't we wait until Starmer wins his second term?
    Or the third term. Could he be there longer than Blair
    Cant bet with you on that one Mike as in all likleyhood, neither of us will be around to pay up
  • I've got a holiday booked in August and I think OGH usually takes a holiday in August/September time.


  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,777

    "The Labour Party has changed," Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer says, "from a party of protest, to a party of public service"

    "[Labour] will never again be a party captured by narrow interests... if you don't like that, the door is open, and you can leave"

    So we can become narrower

    SKS is widening Labour's UK support. From those who are interested in Israel/Palestine to those who are actually interested in the UK.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,915

    FFS the Toolmakers Son is on TV with a PPB bigging up austerity with his odious nasal twin sister

    I'm setting up a PB fund for you to help you cope with the therapy you will need when Starmer becomes PM.
    Shouldn't we wait until Starmer wins his second term?
    Or the third term. Could he be there longer than Blair
    I doubt it, he will more likely be the UK Francois Hollande in my view and quickly become unpopular given the economic situation. Maybe Wes Streeting as then the UK Macron (albeit staying in Labour)?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,915
    edited February 2023
    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Thanks to AlistairM for that link to the Spectator graphs by Michael Simmons. I had been looking for data on Sturgeon's time in office and those covered all but one of the variables I was looking for.

    The missing one? The total fertility rate in Scotland. " In 2020 the total fertility rate in Scotland was 1.29, the lowest it has been in this provided time period. From 2002 onwards the total fertility rate in Scotland increased from 1.47 to a peak of 1.76 in 2008. Since 2008 the total fertility rate in Scotland has fallen rapidly, with only a slight increase occurring between 2013 and 2014."

    (I have come to the conclusion, in recent years, that the two most important measures of a government's performance, domestically, are changes in life expectancy, and the total fertility rate. This seems obvious to me now, but it did not, a decade or two ago.)

    I'd bolden that bit in the middle if I knew how. A fall from 1.76 to 1.29 from 2008 to 2020 seems remarkable and bears further examination, I think.
    Here's the longer view graph for England and Wales;



    http://closer.ac.uk/data/total-fertility-rate/

    Presumably the big fall from '65 to '75 is the sexual revolution, the pill and all that. (Also, the big reason that children of boomers are going to struggle to pay the pensions of their parents.)

    The smaller but significant fall from 2012 to 2020 is economy-related, isn't it? People not feeling that they can afford to have kids.
    Always fraught with danger and caveats trying to infer reasons for changes in birth rates over that sort of timescale, but that would be my guess, and specifically:
    - housing too expensive (how can we have kids if we don't have a room to put them in?)
    - childcare too expensive (included in which is the impossibility of almost any family to live on just one salary).
    More western women going to university and having careers and delaying motherhood too.

    Plus under 45s less religious, Evangelicals, Roman Catholics and Muslims and Orthodox Jews in particular have more children than average .
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,829

    While I agree that the chances of a Scottish referendum this decade have receded significantly, a solid 45% of the Scottish electorate are pro-indy and I’d say a majority of those have bought into a kind of fantasy economics in which “there are no downsides, only considerable upsides”, to coin a phrase.

    That’s not a stable equilibrium.

    It is not very hard at all to imagine the SNP holding the balance of power in 2029, even if 2024 now looks less likely.

    Constitutional reform is a strategic imperative for the British state.

    Who was your source last night?

    If they have any other news like that, send me a message.
    Ha. Of course.

    It appears to have been an increasingly open secret in sindy circles and today’s hasty press conference may have been in response to a leak to press.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,270

    Cookie said:

    Thanks to AlistairM for that link to the Spectator graphs by Michael Simmons. I had been looking for data on Sturgeon's time in office and those covered all but one of the variables I was looking for.

    The missing one? The total fertility rate in Scotland. " In 2020 the total fertility rate in Scotland was 1.29, the lowest it has been in this provided time period. From 2002 onwards the total fertility rate in Scotland increased from 1.47 to a peak of 1.76 in 2008. Since 2008 the total fertility rate in Scotland has fallen rapidly, with only a slight increase occurring between 2013 and 2014."

    (I have come to the conclusion, in recent years, that the two most important measures of a government's performance, domestically, are changes in life expectancy, and the total fertility rate. This seems obvious to me now, but it did not, a decade or two ago.)

    I'd bolden that bit in the middle if I knew how. A fall from 1.76 to 1.29 from 2008 to 2020 seems remarkable and bears further examination, I think.
    Here's the longer view graph for England and Wales;



    http://closer.ac.uk/data/total-fertility-rate/

    Presumably the big fall from '65 to '75 is the sexual revolution, the pill and all that. (Also, the big reason that children of boomers are going to struggle to pay the pensions of their parents.)

    The smaller but significant fall from 2012 to 2020 is economy-related, isn't it? People not feeling that they can afford to have kids.
    So why the stark difference between Scotland and England/Wales - roughly 1.3 vs 1.6 over recent years?

    Is that to do with immigration volumes to different places, given that immigrant populations have higher fertility than native usually?

    Or is there an aspect of post-Brexit returns to the EU?

    I'm interested to hear any data-based analysis of those points.

    One stat to look for would perhaps be foreign born % of the population.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,526

    "The Labour Party has changed," Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer says, "from a party of protest, to a party of public service"

    "[Labour] will never again be a party captured by narrow interests... if you don't like that, the door is open, and you can leave"

    So we can become narrower

    On one end - it is much wider on the other, so overall it is wider.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,878
    Q

    FFS the Toolmakers Son is on TV with a PPB bigging up austerity with his odious nasal twin sister

    I'm setting up a PB fund for you to help you cope with the therapy you will need when Starmer becomes PM.
    Shouldn't we wait until Starmer wins his second term?
    Or the third term. Could he be there longer than Blair
    History suggests Labour might be in power for a while, though not neccesarily Starmer.
  • HYUFD said:

    FFS the Toolmakers Son is on TV with a PPB bigging up austerity with his odious nasal twin sister

    I'm setting up a PB fund for you to help you cope with the therapy you will need when Starmer becomes PM.
    Shouldn't we wait until Starmer wins his second term?
    Or the third term. Could he be there longer than Blair
    I doubt it, he will more likely be the UK Francois Hollande in my view and quickly become unpopular given the economic situation. Maybe Wes Streeting as then the UK Macron (albeit staying in Labour)?
    Maybe two terms for LAB.

    A win in 2024 with a small majority. Then Keir goes for a more secure mandate after say two years?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,997
    edited February 2023
    My problem with the Guardian article is that there's no evidence: the drop of Northwestern European TFP to near-Singaporean levels proceeded beginning in 2009, but there's no evidence that "man quality" dipped or "female empowerment" grew in that short period, never mind by enough to explain 0.45 TFP. There are bits of evidence around - above all - the scarring effect of the crisis on entrants to the job market, which regardless of objective prosperity inculcated fear of economic instability in its victims - like the debate on "relative poverty". But also habitual drug use, low work intensity, perhaps changes in social values, and perhaps dropping male sperm counts, though the accuracy of the historical data are debated on that topic and there are workarounds for many couples.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,481
    edited February 2023
    MattW said:

    Cookie said:

    Thanks to AlistairM for that link to the Spectator graphs by Michael Simmons. I had been looking for data on Sturgeon's time in office and those covered all but one of the variables I was looking for.

    The missing one? The total fertility rate in Scotland. " In 2020 the total fertility rate in Scotland was 1.29, the lowest it has been in this provided time period. From 2002 onwards the total fertility rate in Scotland increased from 1.47 to a peak of 1.76 in 2008. Since 2008 the total fertility rate in Scotland has fallen rapidly, with only a slight increase occurring between 2013 and 2014."

    (I have come to the conclusion, in recent years, that the two most important measures of a government's performance, domestically, are changes in life expectancy, and the total fertility rate. This seems obvious to me now, but it did not, a decade or two ago.)

    I'd bolden that bit in the middle if I knew how. A fall from 1.76 to 1.29 from 2008 to 2020 seems remarkable and bears further examination, I think.
    Here's the longer view graph for England and Wales;



    http://closer.ac.uk/data/total-fertility-rate/

    Presumably the big fall from '65 to '75 is the sexual revolution, the pill and all that. (Also, the big reason that children of boomers are going to struggle to pay the pensions of their parents.)

    The smaller but significant fall from 2012 to 2020 is economy-related, isn't it? People not feeling that they can afford to have kids.
    So why the stark difference between Scotland and England/Wales - roughly 1.3 vs 1.6 over recent years?

    Is that to do with immigration volumes to different places, given that immigrant populations have higher fertility than native usually?

    Or is there an aspect of post-Brexit returns to the EU?

    I'm interested to hear any data-based analysis of those points.

    One stat to look for would perhaps be foreign born % of the population.
    Age distn too, if not corrected for that. And it's more secular than England. RCism in particular has massively collapsed over recent decades, certainly in the family planning area.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,777
    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Thanks to AlistairM for that link to the Spectator graphs by Michael Simmons. I had been looking for data on Sturgeon's time in office and those covered all but one of the variables I was looking for.

    The missing one? The total fertility rate in Scotland. " In 2020 the total fertility rate in Scotland was 1.29, the lowest it has been in this provided time period. From 2002 onwards the total fertility rate in Scotland increased from 1.47 to a peak of 1.76 in 2008. Since 2008 the total fertility rate in Scotland has fallen rapidly, with only a slight increase occurring between 2013 and 2014."

    (I have come to the conclusion, in recent years, that the two most important measures of a government's performance, domestically, are changes in life expectancy, and the total fertility rate. This seems obvious to me now, but it did not, a decade or two ago.)

    I'd bolden that bit in the middle if I knew how. A fall from 1.76 to 1.29 from 2008 to 2020 seems remarkable and bears further examination, I think.
    Here's the longer view graph for England and Wales;



    http://closer.ac.uk/data/total-fertility-rate/

    Presumably the big fall from '65 to '75 is the sexual revolution, the pill and all that. (Also, the big reason that children of boomers are going to struggle to pay the pensions of their parents.)

    The smaller but significant fall from 2012 to 2020 is economy-related, isn't it? People not feeling that they can afford to have kids.
    Always fraught with danger and caveats trying to infer reasons for changes in birth rates over that sort of timescale, but that would be my guess, and specifically:
    - housing too expensive (how can we have kids if we don't have a room to put them in?)
    - childcare too expensive (included in which is the impossibility of almost any family to live on just one salary).
    More western women going to university and having careers and delaying motherhood too.

    Plus under 45s less religious, Evangelicals, Roman Catholics and Muslims and Orthodox Jews in particular have more children than average .
    Traditionally (which Conservatives (large C) love) the women stayed at home and the men worked. So Surely if more women are going to uni and earning good salaries, the answer is for more men to stay at home to look after the kids whilst their wives work?

    (But that just makes us Zulu Zula males according to SeanT's criteria. Which is exactly the problem with dinosaurs.)
  • Pulpstar said:

    Q

    FFS the Toolmakers Son is on TV with a PPB bigging up austerity with his odious nasal twin sister

    I'm setting up a PB fund for you to help you cope with the therapy you will need when Starmer becomes PM.
    Shouldn't we wait until Starmer wins his second term?
    Or the third term. Could he be there longer than Blair
    History suggests Labour might be in power for a while, though not neccesarily Starmer.
    Starmer's not young, and possibly less susceptible to the siren call of going On and On than many.

    I can imagine him doing a term and a half and then leaving.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,829
    HYUFD said:

    While I agree that the chances of a Scottish referendum this decade have receded significantly, a solid 45% of the Scottish electorate are pro-indy and I’d say a majority of those have bought into a kind of fantasy economics in which “there are no downsides, only considerable upsides”, to coin a phrase.

    That’s not a stable equilibrium.

    It is not very hard at all to imagine the SNP holding the balance of power in 2029, even if 2024 now looks less likely.

    Constitutional reform is a strategic imperative for the British state.

    Devomax ultimately has to be the answer and I expect a UK Labour government would push it through
    I hope so, but although I agree with the general direction of Brown’s devomax, I do likely quibble with the details.

    Ultimately there needs to be a fiscal framework that enables Scotland to pay for its own expenditure, without the moral hazard of relying on (and therefore blaming) Westminster.

    But there ALSO needs to be a role for direct Westminster spending, chiefly in social security, which enables the UK to demonstrate the “Union dividend”.

    The current status quo, including the Sewel convention, is a mechanism to ratchet up independence sentiment. And don’t get me started on the gerrymandered Scottish electoral system.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,951
    edited February 2023

    Theresa May killed Scottish nationalism stone dead in 2017.

    The thing is, if not now, when exactly will it be better for the SNP to hold a second referendum?

    The magnificent Elizabeth Truss defenestrated that supremely impressive Independence Recruiting Sergeant, Boris Johnson. The Indy moment passed when she unceremoniously ejected him from Downing Street.

    When Johnson returns as PM, Scottish Nationalism will take off again.
  • HYUFD said:

    While I agree that the chances of a Scottish referendum this decade have receded significantly, a solid 45% of the Scottish electorate are pro-indy and I’d say a majority of those have bought into a kind of fantasy economics in which “there are no downsides, only considerable upsides”, to coin a phrase.

    That’s not a stable equilibrium.

    It is not very hard at all to imagine the SNP holding the balance of power in 2029, even if 2024 now looks less likely.

    Constitutional reform is a strategic imperative for the British state.

    Devomax ultimately has to be the answer and I expect a UK Labour government would push it through
    If Catalonia is our guide, there's plenty a nationalist party can push for short of independence.

    You can't defer the question forever (and the Catalans may have reached that point with Spain), but there's plenty the SNP can aim for in the meantime.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,951

    HYUFD said:

    FFS the Toolmakers Son is on TV with a PPB bigging up austerity with his odious nasal twin sister

    I'm setting up a PB fund for you to help you cope with the therapy you will need when Starmer becomes PM.
    Shouldn't we wait until Starmer wins his second term?
    Or the third term. Could he be there longer than Blair
    I doubt it, he will more likely be the UK Francois Hollande in my view and quickly become unpopular given the economic situation. Maybe Wes Streeting as then the UK Macron (albeit staying in Labour)?
    Maybe two terms for LAB.

    Autumn and Winter? Out by Easter.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,270
    edited February 2023
    This is fun.

    Following the "go on then, send me some" request, it seems that the Lib Dems dropped off 48,000 leaflets for Lee Anderson today. Allegedly at the wrong address.

    Never a dull moment; if one appears, I'll let you know.



    https://twitter.com/LeeAndersonMP_/status/1625909988681035801
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,829

    HYUFD said:

    While I agree that the chances of a Scottish referendum this decade have receded significantly, a solid 45% of the Scottish electorate are pro-indy and I’d say a majority of those have bought into a kind of fantasy economics in which “there are no downsides, only considerable upsides”, to coin a phrase.

    That’s not a stable equilibrium.

    It is not very hard at all to imagine the SNP holding the balance of power in 2029, even if 2024 now looks less likely.

    Constitutional reform is a strategic imperative for the British state.

    Devomax ultimately has to be the answer and I expect a UK Labour government would push it through
    If Catalonia is our guide, there's plenty a nationalist party can push for short of independence.

    You can't defer the question forever (and the Catalans may have reached that point with Spain), but there's plenty the SNP can aim for in the meantime.
    We should not think that the SNP are necessarily strong devolutionists, either.

    In fact, the tendency has been to accumulate power within Scotland to an increasing SNP-sympathetic elite in the central belt.

    if I was Labour I would be trying to outmanoeuvre the SNP via a strongly devolutionary settlement WITHIN Scotland. (Although I confess this is alien to Labour’s and indeed Scottish Labour’s tradition).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,526
    People can be so cynical

    Nicola Sturgeon explaining how she’s given everything for too long, it’s the right time for her go, and is nothing to do with current “short term pressures.”

    What good fortune then, that short term pressures should just happen to dovetail so perfectly with her personal choices.


    https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1625818522432462848?cxt=HHwWgICzraHViJAtAAAA
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,777
    edited February 2023
    MattW said:

    This is fun.

    It seems that the Lib Dems dropped off 48,000 leaflets for Lee Anderson today. He claims at the wrong address,

    Presumably in a way that makes it legally impossible for him to deliver them at an election, without having to declare the spending as his own?

    Or, can Anderson deliver them and complain that the LDs exceeded their own spending limit?
  • Theresa May killed Scottish nationalism stone dead in 2017.

    The thing is, if not now, when exactly will it be better for the SNP to hold a second referendum?

    The magnificent Elizabeth Truss defenestrated that supremely impressive Independence Recruiting Sergeant, Boris Johnson. The Indy moment passed when she unceremoniously ejected him from Downing Street.

    When Johnson returns as PM, Scottish Nationalism will take off again.
    Today is a huge political victory for Rishi Sunak.

    She played high-stakes poker with him, and she lost.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Theresa May killed Scottish nationalism stone dead in 2017.

    The thing is, if not now, when exactly will it be better for the SNP to hold a second referendum?

    The magnificent Elizabeth Truss defenestrated that supremely impressive Independence Recruiting Sergeant, Boris Johnson. The Indy moment passed when she unceremoniously ejected him from Downing Street.

    When Johnson returns as PM, Scottish Nationalism will take off again.
    Today is a huge political victory for Rishi Sunak.

    She played high-stakes poker with him, and she lost.
    In what way is Rishi better off? Tories rely on the SNP. Two cheeks of the same arse if you will.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,270
    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    This is fun.

    It seems that the Lib Dems dropped off 48,000 leaflets for Lee Anderson today. He claims at the wrong address,

    Presumably in a way that makes it legally impossible for him to deliver them at an election, without having to declare the spending as his own?
    No idea.

    Round here it's AIs and Tories who tend currently to deliver most leaflets; ran across a number for the AIs having around 800 members the other day, which I would guess has shrunk more recently with the various controversies.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623

    Theresa May killed Scottish nationalism stone dead in 2017.

    The thing is, if not now, when exactly will it be better for the SNP to hold a second referendum?

    Sturgeon ultimately failed because she was unable to form a sufficiently credible response or escalation to the "now is not the time" May answer to the Section 30 request. Basically everyone in No. 10 since has just copied and pasted that.

    Essentially the entirety of her time since that rebuff was spent trying to look like she had an answer and ultimately it's turned out she couldn't construct one.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,951
    edited February 2023

    Theresa May killed Scottish nationalism stone dead in 2017.

    The thing is, if not now, when exactly will it be better for the SNP to hold a second referendum?

    The magnificent Elizabeth Truss defenestrated that supremely impressive Independence Recruiting Sergeant, Boris Johnson. The Indy moment passed when she unceremoniously ejected him from Downing Street.

    When Johnson returns as PM, Scottish Nationalism will take off again.
    Today is a huge political victory for Rishi Sunak.

    She played high-stakes poker with him, and she lost.
    I am not sure Sunak was even aware he was playing high-stakes poker, let alone he had a winning hand.

    Hey, if it's a huge win for him, far be it for me to deny him the win.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,829
    edited February 2023
    Jonathan said:

    Theresa May killed Scottish nationalism stone dead in 2017.

    The thing is, if not now, when exactly will it be better for the SNP to hold a second referendum?

    The magnificent Elizabeth Truss defenestrated that supremely impressive Independence Recruiting Sergeant, Boris Johnson. The Indy moment passed when she unceremoniously ejected him from Downing Street.

    When Johnson returns as PM, Scottish Nationalism will take off again.
    Today is a huge political victory for Rishi Sunak.

    She played high-stakes poker with him, and she lost.
    In what way is Rishi better off? Tories rely on the SNP. Two cheeks of the same arse if you will.
    On electoral grounds, Rishi would indeed have preferred to have retained Sturgeon in post.

    Rishi has nothing to say on Scotland, and to the extent he spoke out about GRR it was in the hope of reaching grumpy tabloid reading votes in England.

    I can’t tell whether Casino Royale is joking or not. I assume he is.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    Theresa May killed Scottish nationalism stone dead in 2017.

    The thing is, if not now, when exactly will it be better for the SNP to hold a second referendum?

    The magnificent Elizabeth Truss defenestrated that supremely impressive Independence Recruiting Sergeant, Boris Johnson. The Indy moment passed when she unceremoniously ejected him from Downing Street.

    When Johnson returns as PM, Scottish Nationalism will take off again.
    Today is a huge political victory for Rishi Sunak.

    She played high-stakes poker with him, and she lost.
    In what way is Rishi better off? Tories rely on the SNP. Two cheeks of the same arse if you will.
    On electoral grounds, Rishi would indeed have preferred to have retained Sturgeon in post.

    Rishi has nothing to say on Scotland, and to the extent he spoke out about GRR it was in the hope of reaching grumpy tabloid reading votes in England.

    I can’t tell whether Casino Royale is joking or not. I assume he is.
    He’s not joking. He’s desperate for Sunak to have a victory, however pyrrhic that victory might prove to be.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,803
    kle4 said:

    "The Labour Party has changed," Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer says, "from a party of protest, to a party of public service"

    "[Labour] will never again be a party captured by narrow interests... if you don't like that, the door is open, and you can leave"

    So we can become narrower

    On one end - it is much wider on the other, so overall it is wider.
    kle4 said:

    "The Labour Party has changed," Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer says, "from a party of protest, to a party of public service"

    "[Labour] will never again be a party captured by narrow interests... if you don't like that, the door is open, and you can leave"

    So we can become narrower

    On one end - it is much wider on the other, so overall it is wider.
    https://twitter.com/AndyE1878/status/1625898298765717519/photo/1
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,050
    MattW said:

    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    This is fun.

    It seems that the Lib Dems dropped off 48,000 leaflets for Lee Anderson today. He claims at the wrong address,

    Presumably in a way that makes it legally impossible for him to deliver them at an election, without having to declare the spending as his own?
    No idea.

    Round here it's AIs and Tories who tend currently to deliver most leaflets; ran across a number for the AIs having around 800 members the other day, which I would guess has shrunk more recently with the various controversies.
    It took me a moment to work out that AI stood for Ashfield Independents and not Artificial Intelligence.

    I had visions of robots delivering leaflets and @Leon getting all excited watching them.
  • Jonathan said:

    Theresa May killed Scottish nationalism stone dead in 2017.

    The thing is, if not now, when exactly will it be better for the SNP to hold a second referendum?

    The magnificent Elizabeth Truss defenestrated that supremely impressive Independence Recruiting Sergeant, Boris Johnson. The Indy moment passed when she unceremoniously ejected him from Downing Street.

    When Johnson returns as PM, Scottish Nationalism will take off again.
    Today is a huge political victory for Rishi Sunak.

    She played high-stakes poker with him, and she lost.
    In what way is Rishi better off? Tories rely on the SNP. Two cheeks of the same arse if you will.
    Rishi has fought defence on the Union, strengthened it, and deliver a strategic check to the forces of Woke.

    Massive win.
  • So if this was a big win for Sunak can we expect a big polling boost?
  • Jonathan said:

    Theresa May killed Scottish nationalism stone dead in 2017.

    The thing is, if not now, when exactly will it be better for the SNP to hold a second referendum?

    The magnificent Elizabeth Truss defenestrated that supremely impressive Independence Recruiting Sergeant, Boris Johnson. The Indy moment passed when she unceremoniously ejected him from Downing Street.

    When Johnson returns as PM, Scottish Nationalism will take off again.
    Today is a huge political victory for Rishi Sunak.

    She played high-stakes poker with him, and she lost.
    In what way is Rishi better off? Tories rely on the SNP. Two cheeks of the same arse if you will.
    On electoral grounds, Rishi would indeed have preferred to have retained Sturgeon in post.

    Rishi has nothing to say on Scotland, and to the extent he spoke out about GRR it was in the hope of reaching grumpy tabloid reading votes in England.

    I can’t tell whether Casino Royale is joking or not. I assume he is.
    Not joking in the slightest, you're just not big enough to accept or admit that Rishi played this brilliantly and has got a scalp.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,829
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theresa May killed Scottish nationalism stone dead in 2017.

    The thing is, if not now, when exactly will it be better for the SNP to hold a second referendum?

    The magnificent Elizabeth Truss defenestrated that supremely impressive Independence Recruiting Sergeant, Boris Johnson. The Indy moment passed when she unceremoniously ejected him from Downing Street.

    When Johnson returns as PM, Scottish Nationalism will take off again.
    Today is a huge political victory for Rishi Sunak.

    She played high-stakes poker with him, and she lost.
    In what way is Rishi better off? Tories rely on the SNP. Two cheeks of the same arse if you will.
    On electoral grounds, Rishi would indeed have preferred to have retained Sturgeon in post.

    Rishi has nothing to say on Scotland, and to the extent he spoke out about GRR it was in the hope of reaching grumpy tabloid reading votes in England.

    I can’t tell whether Casino Royale is joking or not. I assume he is.
    He’s not joking. He’s desperate for Sunak to have a victory, however pyrrhic that victory might prove to be.
    It’s quite sad.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,800
    Evening all :)

    Nicola Sturgeon's resignation reminds us again all political careers end in failure. Strangely, it wasn't a big issue or an election defeat which brought her down but a much more niche issue which she simply couldn't manage.

    Somebody has no doubt pointed out her departure means almost every leader who fought the 2019 General Election (whether victorious or otherwise) has now fallen. Her successor has three years before he or she next faces the Scottish electorate.

    The unimpressive Deltapoll has a 20-point Labour lead (48-28) and it's undoubtedly been a quieter, if not necessarily better week for the Government with attention more on dreadful natural disasters abroad.

    Today's inflation numbers are a cause for some relief but it simply means prices are rising more slowly, not falling, and 10% inflation (especially if you get a 4-5% wage increase) is still a big drop in your living standards.
  • Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    This is fun.

    It seems that the Lib Dems dropped off 48,000 leaflets for Lee Anderson today. He claims at the wrong address,

    Presumably in a way that makes it legally impossible for him to deliver them at an election, without having to declare the spending as his own?

    Or, can Anderson deliver them and complain that the LDs exceeded their own spending limit?
    If it's outside an explicit campaign, I think you can do whatever you like.

    However:

    1. At the very least, a whole constituency drop is a faff, and Team Anderson have better things to do.

    2. Overall, I suspect that, even in Ashfield, Anderson's comments aren't a net vote winner.

    Basically, Anderson was a Muppet to say "give me the leaflets, I'll deliver them". Because it was blooming obvious that the Lib Dem Stunt Machine would call him on that one. And if he doesn't do the deliveries, they'll call him on that one too- and loudly.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    kle4 said:

    "The Labour Party has changed," Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer says, "from a party of protest, to a party of public service"

    "[Labour] will never again be a party captured by narrow interests... if you don't like that, the door is open, and you can leave"

    So we can become narrower

    On one end - it is much wider on the other, so overall it is wider.
    kle4 said:

    "The Labour Party has changed," Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer says, "from a party of protest, to a party of public service"

    "[Labour] will never again be a party captured by narrow interests... if you don't like that, the door is open, and you can leave"

    So we can become narrower

    On one end - it is much wider on the other, so overall it is wider.
    https://twitter.com/AndyE1878/status/1625898298765717519/photo/1
    You seem quite upset today. The end of Corbyn is definitely a big story. I wonder how it will play out. Will he do a George Galloway or maybe start a new party? Interesting times.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,829
    Stuart Dickson has been preternaturally quiet.
    I guess he’s busy.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,777

    Theresa May killed Scottish nationalism stone dead in 2017.

    The thing is, if not now, when exactly will it be better for the SNP to hold a second referendum?

    The magnificent Elizabeth Truss defenestrated that supremely impressive Independence Recruiting Sergeant, Boris Johnson. The Indy moment passed when she unceremoniously ejected him from Downing Street.

    When Johnson returns as PM, Scottish Nationalism will take off again.
    Today is a huge political victory for Rishi Sunak.

    She played high-stakes poker with him, and she lost.
    What a hill to choose to die on, a weird social bill rather than anything substantive involving the relationship between the UK and Scotland. Well done to Alister Jack, on picking up the constitutional implications.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,940

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theresa May killed Scottish nationalism stone dead in 2017.

    The thing is, if not now, when exactly will it be better for the SNP to hold a second referendum?

    The magnificent Elizabeth Truss defenestrated that supremely impressive Independence Recruiting Sergeant, Boris Johnson. The Indy moment passed when she unceremoniously ejected him from Downing Street.

    When Johnson returns as PM, Scottish Nationalism will take off again.
    Today is a huge political victory for Rishi Sunak.

    She played high-stakes poker with him, and she lost.
    In what way is Rishi better off? Tories rely on the SNP. Two cheeks of the same arse if you will.
    On electoral grounds, Rishi would indeed have preferred to have retained Sturgeon in post.

    Rishi has nothing to say on Scotland, and to the extent he spoke out about GRR it was in the hope of reaching grumpy tabloid reading votes in England.

    I can’t tell whether Casino Royale is joking or not. I assume he is.
    He’s not joking. He’s desperate for Sunak to have a victory, however pyrrhic that victory might prove to be.
    It’s quite sad.
    It's not entirely unwarranted. It's only a month ago that Sunak used section 35 to block the SNP's legislation, so if the outcome is Sturgeon's resignation it's clearly a political win for him, even if the electoral consequences aren't necessarily to his advantage.
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theresa May killed Scottish nationalism stone dead in 2017.

    The thing is, if not now, when exactly will it be better for the SNP to hold a second referendum?

    The magnificent Elizabeth Truss defenestrated that supremely impressive Independence Recruiting Sergeant, Boris Johnson. The Indy moment passed when she unceremoniously ejected him from Downing Street.

    When Johnson returns as PM, Scottish Nationalism will take off again.
    Today is a huge political victory for Rishi Sunak.

    She played high-stakes poker with him, and she lost.
    In what way is Rishi better off? Tories rely on the SNP. Two cheeks of the same arse if you will.
    On electoral grounds, Rishi would indeed have preferred to have retained Sturgeon in post.

    Rishi has nothing to say on Scotland, and to the extent he spoke out about GRR it was in the hope of reaching grumpy tabloid reading votes in England.

    I can’t tell whether Casino Royale is joking or not. I assume he is.
    He’s not joking. He’s desperate for Sunak to have a victory, however pyrrhic that victory might prove to be.
    It is a victory, despite the fact partisans like you can't concede it is - even through gritted teeth.

    Sad.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,310
    Much rather have the chances of having to listen Sturgeon approx= zero
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,829

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theresa May killed Scottish nationalism stone dead in 2017.

    The thing is, if not now, when exactly will it be better for the SNP to hold a second referendum?

    The magnificent Elizabeth Truss defenestrated that supremely impressive Independence Recruiting Sergeant, Boris Johnson. The Indy moment passed when she unceremoniously ejected him from Downing Street.

    When Johnson returns as PM, Scottish Nationalism will take off again.
    Today is a huge political victory for Rishi Sunak.

    She played high-stakes poker with him, and she lost.
    In what way is Rishi better off? Tories rely on the SNP. Two cheeks of the same arse if you will.
    On electoral grounds, Rishi would indeed have preferred to have retained Sturgeon in post.

    Rishi has nothing to say on Scotland, and to the extent he spoke out about GRR it was in the hope of reaching grumpy tabloid reading votes in England.

    I can’t tell whether Casino Royale is joking or not. I assume he is.
    He’s not joking. He’s desperate for Sunak to have a victory, however pyrrhic that victory might prove to be.
    It’s quite sad.
    It's not entirely unwarranted. It's only a month ago that Sunak used section 35 to block the SNP's legislation, so if the outcome is Sturgeon's resignation it's clearly a political win for him, even if the electoral consequences aren't necessarily to his advantage.
    I agree it’s not entirely unwarranted.
    However Casino - presumably mid-shit at Waterloo - is gilding the lily and then some.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theresa May killed Scottish nationalism stone dead in 2017.

    The thing is, if not now, when exactly will it be better for the SNP to hold a second referendum?

    The magnificent Elizabeth Truss defenestrated that supremely impressive Independence Recruiting Sergeant, Boris Johnson. The Indy moment passed when she unceremoniously ejected him from Downing Street.

    When Johnson returns as PM, Scottish Nationalism will take off again.
    Today is a huge political victory for Rishi Sunak.

    She played high-stakes poker with him, and she lost.
    In what way is Rishi better off? Tories rely on the SNP. Two cheeks of the same arse if you will.
    On electoral grounds, Rishi would indeed have preferred to have retained Sturgeon in post.

    Rishi has nothing to say on Scotland, and to the extent he spoke out about GRR it was in the hope of reaching grumpy tabloid reading votes in England.

    I can’t tell whether Casino Royale is joking or not. I assume he is.
    He’s not joking. He’s desperate for Sunak to have a victory, however pyrrhic that victory might prove to be.
    It’s quite sad.
    It’s another sign that the coalition that check mated Labour for so long is starting to disintegrate.
  • So if this was a big win for Sunak can we expect a big polling boost?

    No. Political wins don't necessarily result in electoral benefits.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,777
    edited February 2023

    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    This is fun.

    It seems that the Lib Dems dropped off 48,000 leaflets for Lee Anderson today. He claims at the wrong address,

    Presumably in a way that makes it legally impossible for him to deliver them at an election, without having to declare the spending as his own?

    Or, can Anderson deliver them and complain that the LDs exceeded their own spending limit?
    If it's outside an explicit campaign, I think you can do whatever you like.

    However:

    1. At the very least, a whole constituency drop is a faff, and Team Anderson have better things to do.

    2. Overall, I suspect that, even in Ashfield, Anderson's comments aren't a net vote winner.

    Basically, Anderson was a Muppet to say "give me the leaflets, I'll deliver them". Because it was blooming obvious that the Lib Dem Stunt Machine would call him on that one. And if he doesn't do the deliveries, they'll call him on that one too- and loudly.
    IIRC, outside of the campaign there’s no explicit spending limit, but leaflets must still contain an ‘imprint’ with the details of the promotor. Been a while since I did this, so it may have changed, but I’ll bet the leaflets as delivered are useless to Anderson, and he can’t post them through doors even if he wanted to.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,951

    Jonathan said:

    Theresa May killed Scottish nationalism stone dead in 2017.

    The thing is, if not now, when exactly will it be better for the SNP to hold a second referendum?

    The magnificent Elizabeth Truss defenestrated that supremely impressive Independence Recruiting Sergeant, Boris Johnson. The Indy moment passed when she unceremoniously ejected him from Downing Street.

    When Johnson returns as PM, Scottish Nationalism will take off again.
    Today is a huge political victory for Rishi Sunak.

    She played high-stakes poker with him, and she lost.
    In what way is Rishi better off? Tories rely on the SNP. Two cheeks of the same arse if you will.
    On electoral grounds, Rishi would indeed have preferred to have retained Sturgeon in post.

    Rishi has nothing to say on Scotland, and to the extent he spoke out about GRR it was in the hope of reaching grumpy tabloid reading votes in England.

    I can’t tell whether Casino Royale is joking or not. I assume he is.
    Not joking in the slightest, you're just not big enough to accept or admit that Rishi played this brilliantly and has got a scalp.
    You'll be eating your words when you find out she left because the BBC are resurrecting Crackerjack and they offered the old cast big money to return.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,829
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theresa May killed Scottish nationalism stone dead in 2017.

    The thing is, if not now, when exactly will it be better for the SNP to hold a second referendum?

    The magnificent Elizabeth Truss defenestrated that supremely impressive Independence Recruiting Sergeant, Boris Johnson. The Indy moment passed when she unceremoniously ejected him from Downing Street.

    When Johnson returns as PM, Scottish Nationalism will take off again.
    Today is a huge political victory for Rishi Sunak.

    She played high-stakes poker with him, and she lost.
    In what way is Rishi better off? Tories rely on the SNP. Two cheeks of the same arse if you will.
    On electoral grounds, Rishi would indeed have preferred to have retained Sturgeon in post.

    Rishi has nothing to say on Scotland, and to the extent he spoke out about GRR it was in the hope of reaching grumpy tabloid reading votes in England.

    I can’t tell whether Casino Royale is joking or not. I assume he is.
    He’s not joking. He’s desperate for Sunak to have a victory, however pyrrhic that victory might prove to be.
    It’s quite sad.
    It’s another sign that the coalition that check mated Labour for so long is starting to disintegrate.
    Yes. You can hear the Tories ripping up their stockpile of Starmer-in-Sturgeon’s-pocket posters from New York.
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theresa May killed Scottish nationalism stone dead in 2017.

    The thing is, if not now, when exactly will it be better for the SNP to hold a second referendum?

    The magnificent Elizabeth Truss defenestrated that supremely impressive Independence Recruiting Sergeant, Boris Johnson. The Indy moment passed when she unceremoniously ejected him from Downing Street.

    When Johnson returns as PM, Scottish Nationalism will take off again.
    Today is a huge political victory for Rishi Sunak.

    She played high-stakes poker with him, and she lost.
    In what way is Rishi better off? Tories rely on the SNP. Two cheeks of the same arse if you will.
    On electoral grounds, Rishi would indeed have preferred to have retained Sturgeon in post.

    Rishi has nothing to say on Scotland, and to the extent he spoke out about GRR it was in the hope of reaching grumpy tabloid reading votes in England.

    I can’t tell whether Casino Royale is joking or not. I assume he is.
    He’s not joking. He’s desperate for Sunak to have a victory, however pyrrhic that victory might prove to be.
    It’s quite sad.
    It’s another sign that the coalition that check mated Labour for so long is starting to disintegrate.
    Lol
This discussion has been closed.