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A LAB majority moves up sharply to a 62% betting chance – politicalbetting.com
A LAB majority moves up sharply to a 62% betting chance – politicalbetting.com
The Smarkets chart shows how the betting on the next general election outcome has been moving and as can be seen there has been a sharpish switch to a Labour majority.
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https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/feb/15/jeremy-corbyn-will-not-be-labour-candidate-next-election-keir-starmer?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Otherwise, I find this hard to call. I don't see a Con recovery, but Lab's fortunes depend in part on what the public really make of Starmer, e.g. debates interviews nearer the time and also, to a large extent, on the SNP performance in Scotland. Being more of a Scotch expert than Scottish expert, I'm finding the likelihood of a bit of a Lab recovery in Scotland very hard to call.
Sunak will survive until the next general election though, he still polls better than the Conservative Party as a whole
SKS looks mean-spirited and vindictive. He looks opportunistic and mercenary.
(I think it was Henderson who kicked Ramsay MacDonald out of the Labour Party.)
Labour's had a relatively poor week though, thanks to that stupidly Ill conceived campaign on department expenses. Complete cul-de-sac and was always going to backfire.
France - 67.75m population, 38m properties
UK - 67.33m population, 25m properties
Germany - 83.2m population, 42m properties
0.56 coefficient for France
0.50 for Germany
0.37 for UK
It will be an interesting project to gather such data for other countries.
At least if labour is a minority or wafer thin majority it can argue that it didn't have sufficient votes to get changes through sufficiently.
A huge majority and things continue to decline however no excuse and then where will voters turn to....they will be thinking labour presided over a continued decline, tories will still be fresh in their memories. I can see them turning to more radical parties both left and right and then the country could really be deep in the manure
If Labour get to 330, that leaves the Conservatives on 220, having lost about 150 seats from the new boundary notionals.
Playing with electoral calculus, you get that sort of result from L43 C32 LD15 and no tactical voting.
I wonder who would be happier with that outcome?
Keir Starmer:
Served in Jeremy Corbyn's Shadow Cabinet
Campaigned for him to become Prime Minister
Defended him from accusations of antisemitism
Called him a friend
Promised to keep his radical domestic policies
He is one of the most dishonest politicians of the modern era.
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1625787347752177664
So much for “Sunak’s attack line is dead”…..
Now it’s “after [OJ] why did it take him so long….”
ALIENS OVER SCHIEHALLION
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-64629680
I can't see how it would be cost effective at over about £2 million or so, so I suspect the NHS deal is somewhere below that. The campaign for screening is interesting, you'd need to be very low cost for the additional sequencing to make that cost effective, given the low prevalence.
I mentioned on here a few weeks ago that we had two sets of friends with very poorly little ones. One is fortunately now back home, altough still on a course of IV antibiotics after an acute infection which at one point had a very uncertain outcome. The other has a rare genetic disease (rarer even than MLD; there are, I think, approx 100 confirmed cases worldwide) for which the only trial that has showed any success is a broadly similar concept to the MLD treatment and similarly dazzlingly expensive, but with much more modest results (although limited perhaps by recruitment - you can't find people for early intervention, in general).
Time to be thankful, for most of us, for how lucky we are.
0.56 for Switzerland
The @EHRC taking @UKLabour out of special measures is a hugely significant and welcome moment for the Party and British politics. And it is testament to the strong political leadership shown by @Keir_Starmer on showing zero tolerance for antisemitism (1/5)
Doesn't matter what you say, Starmer has made a huge achievement here in such a short space of time.
Jews can once again call Labour their natural home and have no concerns about voting for it. (5/5)
It will be like what would have happened if Labour had won the 1987 general election.
Netherlands: 17.5 million people, 8.0 million homes.
Malmesbury ratio: 0.46.
Lower than the others, but much higher than the UK.
A challenge - find a country with a worse housing coefficient than the UK...
And yet here we have Lord Heseltine refusing to allow banal slogans and tropes to pass as a substitute for sensible conjecture.
Refreshing to see.
https://twitter.com/jemmaforte/status/1625789443482198019
Heseltine goes for the head
OHHHH
So I am astonished they're not calling Brianna Ghey a man?
We need to increase the number of properties in the UK by.... 50%
For every 2 houses and flats we current have, build another 1.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-64640069
If some leftwingers now vote Green or stay home in protest rather than vote Labour that could cost Labour some key marginals and a majority.
Sometimes it is better to keep your opponents inside the tent
Sails off into the sunset a heroine, party in the lead, rolls into a big new job in the third sector.
Pretty sensible really, when you think of it.
but I suspect the real answer is going to be nowhere...
https://twitter.com/BBCBreakfast/status/1625764388685709314
I'll be interested to see her public reasoning why but suspect the real one may be quite different.
Labour majority should be 80%
Starmer PM should be 99%
Meanwhile, wow about Corbyn. One in the eye for those who think Starmer is ineffectual.
Once you see the size of the gap, it all falls into place.
In rural France, they giggle when the stupid foreigners buy the local big houses. And make a fortune rebuilding them for them. And don't mind that they are empty half the year. Because the actual locals are living in modernised (or modern) houses down the road.
Pretty shocking news this morning. I really thought Mercedes was going to keep their F1 car silver, rather than returning to the black livery.
I don't mind him pontificating about the tories, as he represents a certain section of the right but on this it's just bollocks.
The tide is turning on Indy, and Sturgeon knows it. Another problem is that any successor will struggle to keep the armchair cyber-reactionaries and the young Europeans yoked in the same cause.
I expect to see a reasonable amount of Nat blood-letting and this gives Labour a real chance of recovery.
Whatever you think of her she was charismatic and passionate and this is a huge blow to Scottish independence. It’s great news for Labour though whose natural support is more aligned with the SNP and without Sturgeon as leader I expect some of their voters to move back to Labour .
If someone is regretful & he or she apologizes, then an apology means something.
Anyone who say "@YBarddCwsc or @Stuartinromford or Jeremy Corbyn, you must apologize, or you are out" is on a power trip.
And any apology extracted under such duress is meaningless, it is not an apology.
As it happens, Corbyn is right: antisemitism in the Labour Party was exaggerated to attack Corbyn.
This is the ABC of politics.
This is what your political enemies do. They find a weak spot and attack and exaggerate. It is as true about the attacks on Corbyn as attacks on Sunak or Boris or anyone else.
So for stating a basic truth about politics, SKS throws Corbyn out of the Labour Party.
As it is, the SNP and auld Nic are seeing the writing on the wall, and this is going to get both ugly and messy.
I do personally hold out a little hope that the whole awful episode might make one or two people take a good hard look at themselves: If you spend all your time arguing that people like Brianna shuldn’t get to live the life they wanted, what kind of person are you exactly?
Most of the teams have declined to add any more paint than is absolutely necessary!
Oh for a media that attached priority to checking a story before they repeat it.
(TBF around Ukraine I can't say much more for the German media, even the official DW. They have been pushing "NATO ammunition crisis", which is accurate for Germany and maybe parts of Western Europe - not Spain or a couple of Scandis, but was shown to be a political/confidence crisis not an ammunition crisis by Perun back in December.
Germany is suffering from a need for other people to take responsibility for them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=deK98IeTjfY
)
Re. Sturgeon. Time to reflect on the fact she’s been a hugely capable and impressive politician. I am surprised the gender recognition bill has seemingly been the thing to “tip her over the edge”
ETA: Breaks the theme, but I also support Bill[y the] Kidd
0.55 for Estonia.
Certainly it will be more relevant today on PB than Leon, Moonshine and I's interest in party balloons.
(As with others, I suspect that she’s actually getting out ahead of the party finance enquiry report. But that will be next week’s news).
@NicolaSturgeon
, you can still self-identify as the Scottish First Minister.
https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/1625801951920234498?s=20&t=23X99vLP2hOoeSjdQE_c2Q
Presumably something has triggered this but wow.