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Biden should take notice of the polling – politicalbetting.com
Biden should take notice of the polling – politicalbetting.com
There have been number of polls like this on whether Joe Biden should go for a second term and in almost all cases the outcome has been the same – voters don’t want him to run.
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The average age of inheritance is about to go over 60 as well, very few under 40s inherit substantially and the older generations are pretty selfish, I wouldn't be shocked if inheritance was a lot lower than you expect it to be as older generations go for equity release schemes and piss away their money instead of passing it on. Their choice, for sure, but I wouldn't expect people aged 50+ to inherit substantially.
*Hides whisky under bed*
Harris, Biden's VP, polls even worse than Hillary did v Trump. Newsom is a coastal liberal with no connection to the rustbelt swingstates. He might swap Harris with Buttigieg but I see no reason why he would or should not run again, especially given Trump looks likely to be GOP nominee again
1-meter asteroid to safely fall over English Channel at 3:00 AM UTC (3/4 AM local time)
Getting the alert out as quickly as I'm able so the most people are able to observe... A just-discovered asteroid temporarily designated Sar2667 is predicted to fall over the English Channel between Rouen, France and Brighton, England. The time of the fall will be 3:00:03 AM UTC, or 3 AM local time for England/4 AM local time for France. It should be around as bright as the full moon, coming at a 45 degree angle down from directly East, and should likely be visible in all levels of light pollution from southern England, Northern France, and western Belgium. Attached is the nominal entry location, and the best area of visibility surrounding it.
Source:
[https://groups.io/g/mpml/topic/96923899#38386](https://groups.io/g/mpml/topic/96923899#38386)
[https://www.projectpluto.com/neocp2/mpecs/Sar2667.htm](https://www.projectpluto.com/neocp2/mpecs/Sar2667.htm)
https://preview.redd.it/6ois9gch4uha1.png?width=1493&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=c1119b4a1f2a19b39ed8ca41f13b69d2b802a3b2
Goodnight all.
Auger nowt good.
All in keeping with the times.
All is well.
If more of my generation got married and stayed married like their parents and grandparents did their would also be less demand for property. If fewer of them had voted for Blair we wouldn't have had the uncontrolled immigration we had in the 2000s which drove up house prices either.
So no, the issue of home ownership is not all NIMBY over 60s opposing any new housing near them, in fact most polling shows they back new housing, just focused on affordable starter homes not expensive luxury properties and with appropriate infrastructure and not all in the greenbelt
(I don't think he will be, being charged would only seem likely to bind Republicans more to him).
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/economy/articles-reports/2022/05/09/how-many-people-parents-help-first-home-deposit
If there were a clear alternative, Mike’s argument would have more force; for now, there isn’t.
I note the header doesn’t go into what would happen were Biden to announce he’s not running. He’d need to leave it late in order to avoid a lengthy lame duck presidency - and that would mean a messy scramble for the nomination.
If Harris were a dead cert for the nomination, it might be different. Sadly, she isn’t.
If they lose the next election it will be sod all to do with home ownership, it will be to do with being in power for 14 years, Truss' hopeless budget, Boris' partygate, Labour having a more centrist competent leader and falling support for the Brexit deal we have and the high inflation due to the Ukraine war lowering real wages
Academic says remark that Japanese tradition of self-evisceration is ‘the only solution’ to growing state burden was taken out of context"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/02/12/old-people-should-embrace-mass-suicide-says-yale-professor/
2) Immigrants tend to live in multi-generational households and pack in like sardines (at least that is what the Romanians upstairs do). They are also very good at building or repairing houses. Set a great example, tbh.
3) I'd like to apologise to PB for raising my divorce = high house prices theory. Will be on the front of the Daily Mail.
4) All the new developments in rural-ish Scotland have zero public transport and zero cycling provision (even just outside Edinburgh). Which means you have to splash even more on a car (on finance). And the build quality is dreadful - they didn't put any drainage into a new estate up near Inverness, so it just floods from standing water.
Rezone London’s Zones 2 to 4 as “up to six floors”, excluding conservation areas and subject to appropriate design guidance.
Do the same in the analogous parts of Manchester, Birmingham, Liverpool and Leeds.
Job done.
I reckon he should run in 2024, replace Biden.
On the other hand, he seems to be speaking for up to 30% of the population, and indeed the set that currently have the whip hand.
A few days ago I suggested that it would be the Tory party that will turn on older voters when they're in opposition out of necessity. You're going to be defending policies you hate in a few years because Kemi and the next generation aren't wedded to the old shibboleths of the triple lock and shovelling money to older voters.
The social inequality created by runaway housing costs is terrifying.
In my “parent set” back in London, you either inherited or you had some astonishing career to get on the housing ladder at the right time.
I am 44. Even those my age struggled to get on the ladder, the real winners are now 50 and above.
I don’t think you mean to suggest this, but the idea we should settle for less than people living in the 1930s is obscene.
The polarization in the USA means there are very few real swing voters .
Those Dems who don’t want Biden to stand aren’t suddenly going to turn into Rep voters .
If that was true Labour would have won in 2019 by a landslide not the Tories given home ownership amongst under 40s was about the same as now. The median voter is now 50 not 40. Yes morally we may want to get more under 40s owning property but they don't win elections, voters aged 45 and over do!
If the Tories turned on those older voters they would go extinct and be replaced by RefUK as the main party of the right. Voters over 50 would still decide elections however
I used to think as you do - at least to the extent of wanting house prices to crash but without the bitter, twisted reasoning you exhibit. But other, wiser heads on here have convinced me that a house price stagnation is a much better way for things to progress.
We don't appear to have done that, in part because to judge from my local area losing a couple of fields of poor quality scrubland to housing is the most heinous action imaginable.
Or do you believe populations have never increased in the past, even when property was more affordable?
One offers hears from boomers that “the kids are drinking avocado frappucinos, whereas in my day we only had fish-paste sandwiches” as if this justifies placing young people into indentured penury.
The idea is of civilisation is to improve standards of living, though. Well, at least since the Renaissance (and especially the Industrial Revolution).
Even if it is in Bayswater, this is fucking mental.
https://www.zoopla.co.uk/to-rent/details/57996472/?weekly_featured=1&utm_content=featured_listing&search_identifier=7f3717f9bc05ac0a821f40c50642e1c5
Bayswater is an odd place. Speculatively built grand squares which were only briefly posh until post WW1 decline and flatting. Still not fully recovered, even after all these years. Famously seedy in the mid 20th century.
From memory the population split is something like 40/60.
I’m weirdly fascinated in the social history of various urban districts.
More importantly, Bank Rate was 15% in 1990 and 9% or higher for most of the late Eighties. For the last decade it was near-zero and only started rising in the last year. That means people nowadays can use their expected future income to bid up the price of housing in a way that would have been very costly in 1990.
If you purged ten million people from the UK, probably prices would crash, but there'd also be a bunch of other consequences: repopulating the NHS alone would be a multi-year project, commandeering resources and shrinking the private sector.
https://www.eltelegrafo.com/2023/02/ovni-en-almiron-sorpresa-por-luces-en-el-cielo/
https://www.eltelegrafo.com/2023/02/comision-de-la-fuerza-aerea-visitara-zona-de-avistamiento-de-ovni-en-almiron/
CRIDOVNI which is referred to in the second article is the Commission for the Receipt and Investigation of UFO Reports, part of the airforce, created in 1979.
I suspect there are a whole raft of issues. My own view is among others the burgeoning buy to let market reduces stock and drives up prices.
Anyway, been there, done that, don't intend to ever do it again.
FPT: It's an appalling article; a fairy tale from a man who can't even write self-consistent fairy tales.
But then it's from Joel Golby, who has spent the last x years writing outrage bot clickbait from bits and pieces he's scraped off Zoopla, so I would expect him to be out of touch.
It wouldn't surprise me if he has happily lived in a high quality rented property, in a good relationship with his landlord, throughout. But he knows his audience wants red meat so he writes it.
For example:
The landlord started the renovation works while you were all still on the end of your contract
The tenant has full possession until the end of the contract, to the extent of ability to change the locks. A landlord doing works does it by consent, or because it is in the contract the tenant signed. Usually to get early access requires crossing the tenant's palm with silver.
He's completely ignorant of the concept of tenantlike behaviour, which is absolutely basic when it comes to simple repairs etc. See his radiator rant.
(where is the regulation on the rental market, by the way? Why is there not like, one atom of regulation?
Does this guy have a drug habit to ask a question like that?
You haven’t been to a house party in a squat and taken ketamine for ages, for weeks. You’re an upstanding, decent member of society. So why does it feel like the city doesn’t want you here?
Oh, he does. Explains a lot, perhaps.
(In case anybody wants to have a pop, I rented six different places in London between 2000 and 2010, ranging from an 8x7 room in Walthamstow to a flat in Grove Park, Chiswick. Since then the market has been heavily further regulated.)
England has shrunk by less, with a slight recent uptick.
*Build* to let may be increasing, due to institutional investors.
My preference would be to develop some of the Greenbelt scrubland, plus a couple of new high density areas (think Barbican style but perhaps on a couple of the extensive modern low-rise estates) - rather than smear it all over all of zones 2-4.
That would allow for a generation.
Plus market reforms, as I have argued previously.
There are a few reasons you may want to own a house: avoid semi-regular moves, do long-lasting works like some kinds of gardening, use the leverage to borrow against future earnings, and above all to grab a big tax shelter: the zero tax rate on their housing spend (whereas private rents are taxed). This leads to somewhat of a premium on average, after subtracting the tax wedge from rent. On the other hand, millions of people are stuck if and when prices dip, and their investment portfolios are exposed to local house prices rather than a broad swathe of the national or global economy.
After helping prince’s rise, Trump and Kushner benefit from Saudi funds
An investment fund overseen by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is backing ventures that profit the former president and his senior adviser, raising questions of conflict
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/02/12/after-helping-princes-rise-trump-kushner-benefit-saudi-funds/
I’m mostly fine with scrubland, but I fear it will be used as an excuse by developers to simply sprawl in the unsustainable we see much development out of London.
I believe in a straight land tax rather than a capital gains tax on primary residence which I think is actually regressive in effect.
As for Zone 2-4, what’s your issue? See my note about excluding conservation areas.
https://twitter.com/MrDanZak/status/1624776699253514246
Our politicians are comparative amateurs at this lark.
Firm won £25.8m PPE contract after Greg Hands approached by Tory activist
Exclusive: New Tory chair referred Luxe Lifestyle in April 2020 despite it apparently having no history of supplying PPE
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/feb/12/firm-won-ppe-contract-greg-hands-approached-by-tory-activist-luxe-lifestyle
If they went down by 20%, that is only going to take prices back to 2020 levels.
https://twitter.com/matthewsyed/status/1624749778494976000
An example for something I don't like is the Olympic Park area, which to me feels like 1970s Moscow with huge blocks with too many people for human scale to know, for example, most of the people who use your courtyard. I took a tour of it, but haven't been back for a couple of years.
4-6 story would work better as a row of joined blocks of 10-20 apartments, rather than long corridors like an institution. Or various mixes were experimented with in the 1950s and 60s, before it went off the rails - some interesting stuff was done in Camden in the 1960s/1970s, for example, and Roehampton.
I prefer the high tower and more space model used in the Barbican, which is more pleasant and gives a density of 228 people per acre (=570 people per hectare), for a large development. You can call that roughly 1.x people per bedroom. Normal measures are dwellings per Ha, bedrooms per Ha, or habitable rooms per Ha.
Hyde Park Estate is an interesting mix of high and lower density, which I think works as a neighbourhood.
But typical occupancy of a terraced or older house is now around of half of what it was a century ago - we all have more space per person.
A highish Prescott density (defined when he was Deputy PM, for say estates within one mile of town centre) is around 30 dwellings per Ha, and I think goes up to 40.
I think recapturing of public space for community use from motor vehicles - eg LTNs - is a great positive and a sign of hope; we need to see where that goes. That requires a swing back to public transport to work widely. Potentially that could recover a lot of space in London especially, which is a low density city.
""I'm not going to categorize them as balloons. We're calling them objects for a reason."
Example from total numbers. UK has the same population as France within 1%.
France has 37 million dwellings; UK has 28-29 million.
I rented in a mix of high and low in the market, but I *never* went via an agent:
Room in shared flat, Clapham.
Room in shared house, Walthamstow.
1 bed flat, nr Finsbury Square.
Studio flat in roof of terraced house: South Hampstead / Gospel Oak.
1 bed flat, Grove Park nr Chiswick House.
Room in shared flat, Central Chiswick.
Edit : someone caught it on camera https://youtu.be/QOvJrE01ENA
https://youtube.com/watch?v=BWkt79xkd00
Man shot dead by own gun after powerful MRI scanner magnet rips weapon from belt
https://twitter.com/KeneAkers/status/1624441156196237312
’News Corp's job cuts cast a shadow over the future of its newspapers’
News Corporation is cutting its staff by 5% globally… after its news media division recorded a second-quarter earnings decline of 47%.
“Eternal” factors… include the performance of the tabloid newspapers that have played a pivotal role in the development of the organisation. It casts a large shadow over the organisation’s future direction and structure.
It is reasonable to suppose that his attachment to newspapers – one colleague has referred to them as his “favourite toys” – is grounded in his experience that they give him power.
He has used that power to wring concessions out of prime ministers to the benefit of his businesses, and used the profits those concessions engendered to accumulate more power.
Perhaps the most egregious example was Margaret Thatcher’s decision as Britain’s prime minister to bypass the country’s Monopolies and Mergers Commission and approve his takeover of The Times and Sunday Times in 1981, after Murdoch’s mass-circulation Sun newspaper had supported her to the hilt in the election of 1979.
https://theconversation.com/news-corps-job-cuts-cast-a-shadow-over-the-future-of-its-newspapers-199762
Call it Science Sunday… or Superbowl Science Sunday.
In spatial science (in this case radar/satellite data), we use techniques to filter out noise so we can identify objects in space (the abstract space, not outer space).
Think of it like trying to find a tennis ball on the beach using a 3d scan of the beach read as lines of text.
You know how big the tennis ball is, so you take all the data from the beach and tell the computer to find a round object that is the approximate size of a tennis ball.
It would take a lot longer to find the tennis ball if every small object on the beach had to be reviewed one-by-one. So we tell the computer to ignore everything that doesn’t look like a tennis ball.
Same goes with detecting aircraft.
We know the range of sizes aircraft typically are, and we know they move across space, so we filter out tiny objects that aren't large enough to be typical aircraft and/or are stationary so we can readily find objects that fit the parameters we set for things like war/spy planes/drones/etc.
When the balloon thing happened, NORAD reduced the filter sensitivity to allow smaller objects to pass through.
Now, we're picking up these small, slow-moving objects that had been filtered out before.
Back to the beach analogy: we essentially turned off the filter and now we’re picking up sea shells, coins and lost rings.
What the objects are and what nation/entity they're from has not been announced. They are simply unidentified flying objects (UFOs) at this point.
These weren’t necessarily launched or sent recently, we just never looked for them. Now we are.
And we’re finding there are quite a few of them there.”
https://twitter.com/GeoRebekah/status/1624810262971793412
Murdoch is a malign presence but these people will mostly be back office staff.
1. The sheer joy of waking up, coming in to the kitchen, and typing "UFO" into a news aggregator!
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/lake-huron-object-michigan-ufo-pentagon-b2280979.html
More than one power is muddying the waters here. It's not even clear who the main target is for the ongoing US military announcements.
"The military had downed the 'object', shaped like an octagon and flying at an altitude of 20,000ft over Lake Huron in Michigan, on Sunday afternoon by a missile launched from an F-16 fighter jet at the direction of president Joe Biden, based on the military’s recommendations.
'We are calling them objects, not balloons, for a reason,' US Air Force General Glen VanHerck told reporters.
'I’ll let the intel community and the counterintelligence community figure that out,' he said, on being asked about the possibility of the object being a UFO.
'I am not able to categorise how they stay aloft. It could be a gaseous type of balloon inside a structure or it could be some type of propulsion system. But clearly, they’re able to stay aloft.'"
2. The asteroid. Fortunately it did not strike the earth but exploded in the atmosphere.
Is it actually true that rocks of this size that have only been noticed a few hours before come so close to the earth's surface as frequently as several times a year?
Must be a bloody boring sport.
1m is tiny.
“US on heightened state of alert over flying objects - and it hasn't ruled out extra-terrestrials”
He sounds like the only lawyer in creation stupider than that NIMBY loving barrister who got muddled between metres and hectares on Clarkson’s Farm.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/d7a6c5dc-ab08-11ed-a737-a480e119ff3e?shareToken=4762065a66e1e4c52a180ed21a4fc7ef
You have to think of it as a combination of chess and a more kinetic form of rugby.