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The LDs use Lee Anderson’s words against him – politicalbetting.com
The LDs use Lee Anderson’s words against him – politicalbetting.com
According to the Observer, the LDs are planning to use the above poster in a digital ad blitz key areas in the south where elections are taking place on May 4th. Lee Anderson, of course, is deputy chairman of the Tory party and has a habit of making controversial statements like those that appear.
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"With malice toward none, with charity for all, with firmness in the right as God gives us to see the right, let us strive on to finish the work we are in, to bind up the nation's wounds, to care for him who shall have borne the battle and for his widow and his orphan, to do all which may achieve and cherish a just and lasting peace among ourselves and with all nations."
source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Lincoln's_second_inaugural_address
The speech is short, but has an astonishing range.
(I'd be interested to know whether your news organizations, like ours, most ignore his birthday, today.)
16 point lead with Survation
https://www.survation.com/latest-data-shows-rishi-sunak-losing-2019-conservative-voters-lags-starmer-on-key-issues-for-the-public/
In summary the Tories are fucked
When did George become the voice of reason?
China and UFOs:
there's a need to factor in the release of the film Wandering Earth 2 at Chinese New Year three weeks ago. The teaser poster featured the slogan "Goodbye, solar system". Much of the filming took place at the huge Movie Metropolis in the city of Qingdao. Today a UFO was sighted over the sea near the city. It has a population of 7 million (metro area), but ... still ... everything is connected where large-scale influences over minds are concerned ...
I worry more hold Anderson's view than is generally suspected. Whether you want to call them the "silent majority" or the "shy Tories" I don't know but there is always a reticence to express views which are seen as "out of fashion". Of course, on forums like this, that's less of an issue among a mostly anonymous group and it may be that's true in similar places.but I still think that reticence exists.
On a tangent, @Leon was talking about value and quoting Italy at 9/1 to beat England. The odds I saw had England at 1/14 with 50/1 the Tie.
At Warwick yesterday, JONBON went off 1/16 to beat his sole rival, CALICO, (also 9/1) in a two mile novice chase.
A £100 win double on the two jollies returns £113.84 (so not even 1/7). I'm not sure anyone taking the bet would have found either experience wholly stress free for all neither result was really in doubt.
I suppose the question is does 9/1 represent value in a two-horse race (actually with the tie a three horse race). The book on a 1/14, 9/1, 50/1 tissue is 105.33% so not bad at all and certainly better than is often the case in bigger field races where the book can be 110% or higher.
The book on 1/16 and 9/1 is only 104.07% so I suppose you could argue the 9/1 on CALICO to win at Warwick was better value than the 9/1 on Italy to beat England but it's academic (or statistical).
Most people now think austerity was an error for the British economy, both in conception and execution.
The latest seat projection has the SPD (31), Greens (31) and Linke (22) meaning 84 of the 147 seats in the Landtag. The CDU will be the strongest group with 47 seats leaving 16 to Alternative.
They think there is a latent pool of voters who will come flocking back if the Tories can be just a little more nasty.
Red Wall theory was that there were a lot of older voters who had bought their council houses in northern towns who historically hadn't voted Conservative but should have. The trick to getting them on the blue side was to chuck them some red meat on social issues.
In 2019, this looked brilliant, because the younger, more liberal Conservatives didn't really have anywhere else to go. Thanks Jeremy. So it was a big, potenitally decisive vote grab.
From the perspective of 2023, it looks less smart, because posh snobby liberal elite voters (the sort who have been Conservative in most previous generations) are driven away by Anderson-style politics. And it's not obvious that's a good trade for the Conservatives. That's before considering that the gap between the socially conservative rhetoric on scroungers, criminals and boat people and the incompetent reality. It's quite possible that by 2024, the Conservatives will be pleasing approximately nobody.
As for Scottish Labour, I am told that yes they are very confident now of winning at least a dozen seats.
The real battle is where the Conservatives are facing Labour - it's often forgotten Labour made net losses last time of around 100 seats and polled about the same as the Conservatives. However, with a 16-20% poll lead, you'd expect a big swing to Labour in this round and it may well be the Conservatives are trying to stem the flow of losses in the Midlands and North with Anderson's appointment.
Lib Dems new attack poster.
Please drop me 48,000 off and I will deliver them myself in Ashfield.
#winninghere
They had one chance to offer change and they have failed. Even on a bad night for Labour the Red Wall is theirs once again.
Where they may go down less well is the smaller number of very prosperous, highly educated Tory bluewall Remain seats, especially in West London and the Home counties.
Those are the voters the LDs will be targeting with this poster
This is the same arrogance that Labour got into in 2019.
You'll have had 5 years to make a change, you've made it worse.
I wrote some posts on here about two years ago suggesting that Labour should target seven seats in Scotland and was roundly scorned by the Scotterati.
The argument is that it doesn’t and won’t work.
Boris didn’t win the red wall by kicking nurses who use food banks.
The Tories have not delivered it.
The Red Wall voted for Ed M, Brown and Corbyn 2017. They will clearly vote for Starmer.
Why would they vote for a billionaire banker who has not solved any of their problems?
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/calling-lee-anderson-thick-just-isnt-clever-6dfg36sv5
Like most normal people might be, I’m just glad that I look to be vindicated.
Sadly you look to have been wrong on this occasion.
We will see.
New Labour is making a comeback thank God. We need the talent back
Any record of this piddliest of predictions and the sling and arrows (some apparently from me) that were flung at you?
One topic, two different pollsters (@yougov and @PeoplePolling), two different question wordings, two very different results:
Either only a third or over half of people would oppose the UK withdrawing from the European Convention on Human Rights
https://twitter.com/PollingUnPacked/status/1624431399489994752
For all the hype, I doubt that even a Conservative government would ask the question, because of the risk of having to implement a "Leave" result.
I’m not saying they won’t return to Labour - the next election is likely a get shot of the Tories election as much as anything else. But I do think Labour also need to think what levelling up looks like.
The other result will be that the electorate don't understand properly what the consequences of their votes are.
So he probably sees people saying "good for you Lee" and thinks there's 48,000 who agree with him. Whereas in reality there's 48 agreeing with him and he's blocked from hearing from everyone else.
https://twitter.com/msnbc/status/1624835853385142278?s=61&t=HLBQiVuARMV19G9y6lF4wg
🚨#BREAKING: The FAA has closed the airspace over parts of Lake Michigan, citing national defense.
NORCOM advised US Rep Matt Rosendale that there IS an object and it WAS NOT an anomaly.
Lol
There are also probably quite a few who have voted for him in the past, and who (for example) feel that his views on nurses and food banks would be a little less hypocritical if MPs hadn't just voted themselves a large pay rise.
But this isn't really about Lee. It's about libdems holding onto council seats in the south east of England.
In that case the Tory success story continues - Liz Truss, Krasi Kwarteng, Nadhim Zahawi, Dominic Raab ...
Problem is that they are thinly spread. He thinks he is targeting the red wall. Great - I spent 40 years living in various red wall seats. Anderson used to be Labour. He's one of these ultra-zealous Lab>Con converts (and they so often are) and thinks his voters feel the same.
His target voters voted Tory once in their lives. They unlike him are not zealots. So if he thinks "burn the nurses" is the right approach to stay elected I fear he is in for a nasty shock. As the red wall polling suggests.
Problem is that so much of the 2019 intake of Tory MPs are so fucking thick. Anderson is so massively think he can neither see nor hear the proper Tory party laughing down their sneering noses at him.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/feb/12/hes-a-bit-of-a-prat-voters-in-ashfield-turn-on-lee-anderson?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
This is the actual Representative in Congress for Montana
“I am in constant communication with NORCOM and they have just advised me that they have confidence there IS an object and it WAS NOT an anomaly. I am waiting now to receive visual confirmation. Our nation’s security is my priority.”
https://twitter.com/reprosendale/status/1624824597911674880?s=61&t=HLBQiVuARMV19G9y6lF4wg
https://twitter.com/billfoxla/status/1624834702304772096?s=61&t=HLBQiVuARMV19G9y6lF4wg
Brilliantly mad
NEW - Uruguayan Air Force is investigating a sighting of "flashing lights in the sky" over Termas de Almirón.
fau.mil.uy/es/articulos/4…
https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1624832009431310339?s=61&t=HLBQiVuARMV19G9y6lF4wg
What did they ever do apart from eat their own rugby team?
They are not trying to shoot it down, as they believe it is impervious to any weapons system known to man. They tried using logic on it, but the object connected to Twitter and quadrupled in size.
I would suggest that will lose them votes overall with today's electorate. A net negative for them, is he the best that Rishi could come up with?
1) take Calais back from the French. The. The migrants will be in the U.K.
2) anyone crossing the channel illegally and declaring they have no papers is automatically deemed to have enlisted in the Royal Navy.
3) anyone employing an illegal is subject to a £100k fine, immigrant gets half and indefinite leave to remain.
Which do you like best?