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Somerton & Frome – the next CON by-election defence? – politicalbetting.com
Somerton & Frome – the next CON by-election defence? – politicalbetting.com
Somerton and Frome news pic.twitter.com/UHjJKUsYRj
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This is like the dying years of the Major Government, but on steroids. Although in 1997 the Conservatives didn't have Brexit bonuses, a war with Russia, a Johnson redux and 30p Lee to save the day.
This is a punishment beating election for the Tories and people will vote for the party which will remove the Tory.
The Party surely wouldn't want an election and will do everything it can to keep him place until the GE.
Will be a good chance of an LD pick up then though.
We're supposed to be horrified that government ministers stayed in hotels whilst abroad on genuine government business. Shocked.
It's utterly stupid. They want to go after Tory sleaze and pocketing our money. I get that. This government is openly corrupt. So go after their corrupt contracts and coincidental peerages. Not minister stays in hotel "shock"
I'd always thought it was difficult to get on the list but it seems that in some places all you need is a mate on the Panel.
Sunak is a political pygmy compared to Major, who had the thumping mandate of having won a general election with a record number of votes.
Ok, so Starmer is also a pygmy compared to Blair, but Labour didn’t win the 1997 election, the Tories lost it. On current form, Sunak’s government is going to lose far more spectacularly that Major’s did.
Major managed to retain 165 Tory seats. That would be an astonishing achievement if Sunak manages to turn this around and get even within the ballpark of that mighty figure.
Latest MRP:
Our new large MRP poll with @FindoutnowUK for @Telegraph shows #Labour 25% ahead and the Conservatives set to get fewer seats than the SNP. Details at:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_mrppoll_20230209.html
https://twitter.com/electcalculus/status/1623639165152772098?s=46&t=l6gkF4fesBN2abvCWfOHpA
Which activity isn’t de rigeur in Frome? Having two children?
One is that the location of Lib Dem votes is at least as important as the national total. The other is that a moderate Lab to Lib swing during this sort of election is often part of the playbook, as voters work out the best way to beat the Conservatives in their area.
But Ed D has been awfully quiet for a while.
On topic, how easily can Warburton string this out until the election? That's presumably his current plan. Like his many colleagues in the "Sleazy and Dumped" Party.
There is white-hot rage around about this tory Government. I have never known anything remotely close to this.
I think the most likely route to a by-election is him getting charged, pleading guilty to get some credit, and resigning as a result.
Hyufd The Hopeful keeps telling us of the poll evidence that indicates NOM as the likely GE outcome, but even the crude workings of Electoral Calculus are suggesting little more than 100 Tory MPs surviving the next GE. Nor do you have to a Labour or LD partisan to see why even this might be a serious overestimate.
For a start, there is tactical voting. Then there's the distinct possibility of an LD uplift in the polls when they begin to receive more publicity, as they normally do during a GE. Davey is no superstar but he is no mug either, and nor is Starmer. They are not going to have to dazzle to look preferable to the incumbents.
There is still a chance of a Tory recovery. Sunak is nothing if not sensible. If the Party plods on and avoids serious mistakes (like sacking him, for instance), if the economy improves a bit, if Labour begins to fragment and the Unions get too uppity, there is a chance the Tories get out of their current mess and escape with a decent rump of opposition MPs.
There is however at least as much chance that the opposite happens, in which case we really could be talking about near extinction and the SNP as HM Official Opposition.
Edit, I suppose the main difference today is the cases I have quoted span 50 years. We could have all those and more in a fortnight this Parliament.
So they should be more relaxed about corporate profits, defend the independent schools sector, present a fiscal stance of spending (and tax) discipline and noisily call for increased defence spending and military aid for Ukraine. Triangulate the Tories.
If they did this, the Tory shire disgruntleds might be motivated to vote for them rather than just stay at home. But I see no evidence they’re prepared to do this at a national level, mostly their policy is just naked opportunism or glib.
Predicted seat changes by MP
Some notable MPs are in danger of losing their seats, including the Prime Minister and fifteen other cabinet ministers:
Rishi Sunak (Richmond), Prime Minister
James Cleverly (Braintree), Foreign Secretary
Suella Braverman (Fareham), Home Secretary
Ben Wallace (Wyre and Preston North), Defence Secretary
Oliver Dowden (Hertsmere), Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster
Steve Barclay (Cambridgeshire North East), Health Secretary
Grant Shapps (Welwyn Hatfield), Energy
Mel Stride (Devon Central), Work and Pensions
Gillian Keegan (Chichester), Education
Therese Coffey (Suffolk Coastal), DEFRA
Mark Harper (Forest of Dean), Transport
Chris Heaton-Harris (Daventry), Northern Ireland
Alister Jack (Dumfries and Galloway), Scotland
David TC Davies (Monmouth), Wales
Lucy Frazer (Cambridgeshire South East), DCMS
Penny Mordaunt (Portsmouth North), Leader of Commons
Also Boris Johnson (former Prime Minister), Liz Truss (former Prime Minister), and Kwasi Kwarteng (former Chancellor).
Must be quite an occasion for Seals everywhere.
If we create a political environment in which only the most thick-skinned and narcissistic people can thrive, it's no wonder that's what we get.
Where Ydoethur when you need him?
Mark's an honest Tory. There are few left. In fact I believe they may soon become a protected species.
In the current climate the tories are not going to get benefit of the doubt but it's still a waste if that is all there is to that story.
MM aside, there really is nothing left by which to justify this Conservative Government.
I sense that quite a few punters, blinded by recency bias, are approaching this all wrong. It's time to believe the polls. It's not about 'might a NOM be likely?' or about 'precedence' or about Sunak 'staging a recovery.'
They are going to be on the receiving end of the full wrath and vengeance of the electorate.
The real question is just how low the tories will sink. I've said 100-150 but it might be fewer.
I think the best tactic for the party is to focus very locally, and use the council elections, parliamentary by-elections and the next GE as the way to get back some ground in local government (where there is already good LD representation) and Westminster.
I see the party’s press comments, questions in parliament and TV interviews all the time because I follow their various accounts on Twitter. They are pretty active, but the press isn’t interested because they’re not an important part of todays narrative. I don’t think that matters currently.
They are very cautious on Political markets, and are apt to suspend them for lengthy periods which makes them a rather risky investment.
https://labourlist.org/2023/02/bolton-north-east-brings-labours-selection-process-back-under-scrutiny/
Reading it, it’s hardly a surprise its outcome was sub optimal, and that Putin thought he could get away with a second crack at Ukraine.
Exactly 8 years ago today Putin, Merkel, Hollande and Poroshenko met in Minsk's Palace of Independence to negotiate ceasefire and peace in Ukraine after Russia's invasion in 2014.
I was BY diplomat then and worked with the UA delegation. Here is my thread about that night.
https://twitter.com/PavelSlunkin/status/1624400616838529024
Even BJO seems to have given up recently.
Personally, I found most of the MP expenses scandal bordering on tragic. To give up any claim to probity for such trivial sums? But some, at least, were sucked in by what they were "entitled" to for all the crap they put up with. Now we seem to be seeing far more basic fraud and dishonesty. Its depressing and only the most one eyed can claim that any party is immune.
In my (now considerablle) experience, Governments operate best when there is a decent Opposition. I can't see the SNP providing that.
Personally I'd like to see the iniquitous FPTP system abolished and some form of voting system established that is more suited to a modern democracy. There is zilch chance of that if Labour has a 400 seat majority.
Stuart, Gove and others meeting Ollie Robbins - with the intention of agreeing a cross-party consensus on how to improve EU relations post-Brexit
Looks like:
- Big business agrees that Brexit has been lowest decile (compared with expectations)
- Stuart and Gove are trying to salvage Brexit 'gains' when Labour comes in
- Improving EU trade relations is a priority - better trading relationship wanted by business.
You do even there need to be reasonably thick skinned, and from time to time we try to acknowledge even most MPs are decent sorts trying to do some good, but it's such a toxic environment filled with loose morals and partisan shithousery which seems to be what we want to see, that it's a pretty unappealing prospect to join it.
Oh dear, I don't think I ever associated the sound with the spelling.
We're all Froomed captain Mainwaring?
David TC Davies (Monmouth), Wales
Beautiful.
There are no vetting procedures - I would be interested to find out if any party even uses a cursory background check. Let alone a full trawl through a CV, interview acquaintances from earlier days etc.
We are continuing to move away from having success outside politics first, to professional politicians. Aside from the issue of experience, there is no structure or definition to that career path.
Which means that someone can go from leaflet slinging to MP on the basis that out of x members of the local party, he/she is vaguely presentable and plausible.
In times past he would have been dragged onto the Council, long ago. Probably Parliament as well.
Less than zero interest…
Read the Frome, people.
Be funny if it led to a split though as everyone felt they were so far in front whipping broke down.
Ok, I'm doing me best.
"The energy and passion within our party is stronger than ever, and I truly believe that come election day, we will surprise everyone with a resounding victory. We have the policies and the people to bring real change to this country, and I won't give up on that just because of a few numbers on a page. I am, and always will be, a committed Conservative supporter, and I know that together, we will make history."
There's a three course meal of scandals already laid on, no need to fill up on snacks.
Seems to be working for him atm.
😶
“Other pilots saying that when they looked at the object they could identify no identifiable propulsion system and they did not know how it was actually staying in the air cruising at that altitude“
https://twitter.com/acyn/status/1624516331465764864?s=46&t=y5cVncRhs9tviY7xvk8Q3w
What is being shot down in North America?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/11/new-unidentified-object-shot-down-over-canada-says-trudeau