The pressure mounts on Biden not to run in WH2024 – politicalbetting.com
It does not take long searching on YouTube to find compilation videos like the one above showing gaffes by 80 year old Joe Biden. As we look forward to WH2024 the incumbent’s age is becoming the big issue.
Yes, I'm far from sure but my longtime feeling that neither Biden nor Trump will be the nominee for their parties in 24 remains quite strong. Betting: I'm flat Biden, very short Trump, long all others.
The big question hasn’t changed. How do they get rid of Biden, but also get rid of the totally unsuitable Harris, rather than leave her as the inevitable nominee - especially given the context around race and gender, that dominates Democratic politics?
The big question hasn’t changed. How do they get rid of Biden, but also get rid of the totally unsuitable Harris, rather than leave her as the inevitable nominee - especially given the context around race and gender, that dominates Democratic politics?
There is a view on the right that Biden is being eased out and that much of the recent news flow around him being as part of that move (the documents scandal only happened because someone with knowledge leaked it to CBS). The rationale goes that the midterms have convinced a fair few in the Democrats that the GOP and particularly Trump pose less of a threat than feared.
Moreover, their view is that they have decided when it comes to Harris to, use a phrase, put the lipstick on the pig and see if it works. Her political history suggests she is quite happy to switch opinions in self-interest. So, have a President Harris for let's say 12 months, with an improving economy, and she may just make it.
Lucy Frazer, the new SoS at DCMS inherits the gambling review. She is a Cambridge-educated lawyer.
So she should know whether cattle taken in withernam are replevisible, the history of detinue and whether market overt applies to Bermondsey market after sunset before 1995. Is she interested in racing as well?
The big question hasn’t changed. How do they get rid of Biden, but also get rid of the totally unsuitable Harris, rather than leave her as the inevitable nominee - especially given the context around race and gender, that dominates Democratic politics?
There is a view on the right that Biden is being eased out and that much of the recent news flow around him being as part of that move (the documents scandal only happened because someone with knowledge leaked it to CBS). The rationale goes that the midterms have convinced a fair few in the Democrats that the GOP and particularly Trump pose less of a threat than feared.
Moreover, their view is that they have decided when it comes to Harris to, use a phrase, put the lipstick on the pig and see if it works. Her political history suggests she is quite happy to switch opinions in self-interest. So, have a President Harris for let's say 12 months, with an improving economy, and she may just make it.
You’re thinking that Biden stands aside this year, and Harris goes into the election as the incumbent president?
Is there an actual “Next President” market anywhere, as opposed to “President sworn in on Jan 20, 2025” market?
The big question hasn’t changed. How do they get rid of Biden, but also get rid of the totally unsuitable Harris, rather than leave her as the inevitable nominee - especially given the context around race and gender, that dominates Democratic politics?
There is a view on the right that Biden is being eased out and that much of the recent news flow around him being as part of that move (the documents scandal only happened because someone with knowledge leaked it to CBS). The rationale goes that the midterms have convinced a fair few in the Democrats that the GOP and particularly Trump pose less of a threat than feared.
Moreover, their view is that they have decided when it comes to Harris to, use a phrase, put the lipstick on the pig and see if it works. Her political history suggests she is quite happy to switch opinions in self-interest. So, have a President Harris for let's say 12 months, with an improving economy, and she may just make it.
You’re thinking that Biden stands aside this year, and Harris goes into the election as the incumbent president?
Is there an actual “Next President” market anywhere, as opposed to “President sworn in on Jan 20, 2025” market?
I’m not sure why Digital was removed wholesale from DCMS.
Rather, digital MEDIA should have stayed, and digital TECHNOLOGY and INFRA should have moved.
I’m far from convinced Sunak has a clue. These re-orgs don’t especially signal big priorities and cause some months of internal distraction when presumably every week counts for Tory electoral chances.
Sunak's appointment of Lee Anderson as Deputy Chair smacks of both poor judgement and desperation. Surely he could have found a less unpleasant and divisive Red Wall MP to represent that end of the grass roots? I don't expect Anderson to last long before causing sufficient offence to be removed.
I’m not sure why Digital was removed wholesale from DCMS.
Rather, digital MEDIA should have stayed, and digital TECHNOLOGY and INFRA should have moved.
I’m far from convinced Sunak has a clue. These re-orgs don’t especially signal big priorities and cause some months of internal distraction when presumably every week counts for Tory electoral chances.
Creating a department of energy makes a lot of sense.
Will write up that report at some point, got busy over the weekend, kids and all that.
Surely every film should get a better rating from the audience than from critics? The audience is self selecting; those who think it will be a pile of shite don't go to watch it. However, critics are paid to watch it, and can't avoid it however bad they think it will be.
Tories loving that one. Wow. Reform and Labour down whilst they go up, reducing the Labour lead by a full 2%. You know, if they reduced Labour lead by 2% every month to the election - Tory majority territory. This is so 1964 all over again, except the new Tory leader doesn’t have such a silly voice. Clearly all is still to play for.
Alternatively each poll sample is likely to have little margin of error movements here there, let’s spread out 9 Savanta in a row and see if there is any noticeable movement month on month over that time.
Sunak's appointment of Lee Anderson as Deputy Chair smacks of both poor judgement and desperation. Surely he could have found a less unpleasant and divisive Red Wall MP to represent that end of the grass roots? I don't expect Anderson to last long before causing sufficient offence to be removed.
Yes, it’s another example of Rishi’s cloth-eared approach to appointments.
I accept there is a small slice of the general population and a larger slice indeed of membership that likes what Lee Anderson says.
But I propose that it is smaller than the number of people who think he is absolute arse.
Tories loving that one. Wow. Reform and Labour down whilst they go up, reducing the Labour lead by a full 2%. You know, if they reduced Labour lead by 2% every month to the election - Tory majority territory. This is so 1964 all over again, except the new Tory leader doesn’t have such a silly voice. Clearly all is still to play for.
Alternatively each poll sample is likely to have little margin of error movements here there, let’s spread out 9 Savanta in a row and see if there is any noticeable movement month on month over that time.
Anyone have a market for who the biggest Tory ramper would be?
Last year, would anyone have backed @MoonRabbit over @HYUFD for ToryRamper2023 ??
Sunak's appointment of Lee Anderson as Deputy Chair smacks of both poor judgement and desperation. Surely he could have found a less unpleasant and divisive Red Wall MP to represent that end of the grass roots? I don't expect Anderson to last long before causing sufficient offence to be removed.
That looks a very defensive appointment. Forget about winning, shore up enough of the 'tastier' end of the 2019 Boris/Brexit coalition to avoid a 97 type result.
Lucy Frazer, the new SoS at DCMS inherits the gambling review. She is a Cambridge-educated lawyer.
Latest in a long line, of Cambridge-educated lawyers who understand nothing about gambling?
But they can tell the difference between socage and turbary, the rules of trial by combat, and how to obtain a writ of fieri facias which at the end of the day is what matters.
Sunak's appointment of Lee Anderson as Deputy Chair smacks of both poor judgement and desperation. Surely he could have found a less unpleasant and divisive Red Wall MP to represent that end of the grass roots? I don't expect Anderson to last long before causing sufficient offence to be removed.
Yes, it’s another example of Rishi’s cloth-eared approach to appointments.
I accept there is a small slice of the general population and a larger slice indeed of membership that likes what Lee Anderson says.
But I propose that it is smaller than the number of people who think he is absolute arse.
Which is true, but if the vast majority of the people who think hes an absolute arse would never vote Tory anyway, does it matter?
Surely every film should get a better rating from the audience than from critics? The audience is self selecting; those who think it will be a pile of shite don't go to watch it. However, critics are paid to watch it, and can't avoid it however bad they think it will be.
I suffered through about half of this film based on rave reviews from various critics. I should have trusted the viewing public instead.
Sunak's appointment of Lee Anderson as Deputy Chair smacks of both poor judgement and desperation. Surely he could have found a less unpleasant and divisive Red Wall MP to represent that end of the grass roots? I don't expect Anderson to last long before causing sufficient offence to be removed.
That looks a very defensive appointment. Forget about winning, shore up enough of the 'tastier' end of the 2019 Boris/Brexit coalition to avoid a 97 type result.
It's worse than that. It's not to avoid a defeat at the election, it's to avoid an ERG vote of No Confidence...
Sunak's appointment of Lee Anderson as Deputy Chair smacks of both poor judgement and desperation. Surely he could have found a less unpleasant and divisive Red Wall MP to represent that end of the grass roots? I don't expect Anderson to last long before causing sufficient offence to be removed.
That looks a very defensive appointment. Forget about winning, shore up enough of the 'tastier' end of the 2019 Boris/Brexit coalition to avoid a 97 type result.
Once the new boundaries come in I shall be living in a proper red wall, currently Tory, seat. Not one vote (except his mum's) in the entire of the north of England will hang on the person of an office in the party of which no-one has ever heard.
The big question hasn’t changed. How do they get rid of Biden, but also get rid of the totally unsuitable Harris, rather than leave her as the inevitable nominee - especially given the context around race and gender, that dominates Democratic politics?
There is a view on the right that Biden is being eased out and that much of the recent news flow around him being as part of that move (the documents scandal only happened because someone with knowledge leaked it to CBS). The rationale goes that the midterms have convinced a fair few in the Democrats that the GOP and particularly Trump pose less of a threat than feared.
Moreover, their view is that they have decided when it comes to Harris to, use a phrase, put the lipstick on the pig and see if it works. Her political history suggests she is quite happy to switch opinions in self-interest. So, have a President Harris for let's say 12 months, with an improving economy, and she may just make it.
President Harris is a Trump wet dream. I would make Trump odds on to beat her.
Surely every film should get a better rating from the audience than from critics? The audience is self selecting; those who think it will be a pile of shite don't go to watch it. However, critics are paid to watch it, and can't avoid it however bad they think it will be.
I made the mistake of watching the Banshees of Inisherin last week
"Spain spends €258m to build trains too big for its tunnels
The embarrassing blunder led to a blame game between Renfe, Spain’s national rail operator, and Adif, the track company, while the country’s Left-wing coalition government also came under fire for failing to notice the error.
Raquel Sanchez, the country’s transport minister, admitted that an “error” had been made and promised those responsible would be dismissed.
Renfe announced that its rolling stock manager had been fired along with Adif’s technology inspectorate head.
The trains must now be redesigned to ensure they can pass safely through tunnels on their intended routes. The first services will not begin until 2026 at the earliest, two years later than expected."
"Spain spends €258m to build trains too big for its tunnels
The embarrassing blunder led to a blame game between Renfe, Spain’s national rail operator, and Adif, the track company, while the country’s Left-wing coalition government also came under fire for failing to notice the error.
Raquel Sanchez, the country’s transport minister, admitted that an “error” had been made and promised those responsible would be dismissed.
Renfe announced that its rolling stock manager had been fired along with Adif’s technology inspectorate head.
The trains must now be redesigned to ensure they can pass safely through tunnels on their intended routes. The first services will not begin until 2026 at the earliest, two years later than expected."
On Anderson, Hands is quite an abrasive character himself. I remember an interview at the time of partygate, very indignant, nothing to see here. Presumably then swapped to Sunak.
Like Reagan, sunny-ish experience beats gloomy inexperience (DeSantis) or corrupt stupidity (Trump).
Biden also has a great record, so far. Better, perhaps, than any President since Clinton and sheer getting-stuff-done.
I agree he would ideally need a new VP though.
He saved America and the world from Trump2. If he'd done nothing else that puts him right up there for me. But as it is he has done plenty else. At home, he's got a serious macro-economic package through, and so far he's handling a massive foreign & defence policy challenge (Ukraine) with skill, strength, and sensitivity. I'm a fan.
Lucy Frazer, the new SoS at DCMS inherits the gambling review. She is a Cambridge-educated lawyer.
So she should know whether cattle taken in withernam are replevisible, the history of detinue and whether market overt applies to Bermondsey market after sunset before 1995. Is she interested in racing as well?
Sunak's appointment of Lee Anderson as Deputy Chair smacks of both poor judgement and desperation. Surely he could have found a less unpleasant and divisive Red Wall MP to represent that end of the grass roots? I don't expect Anderson to last long before causing sufficient offence to be removed.
Yes, it’s another example of Rishi’s cloth-eared approach to appointments.
I accept there is a small slice of the general population and a larger slice indeed of membership that likes what Lee Anderson says.
But I propose that it is smaller than the number of people who think he is absolute arse.
Which is true, but if the vast majority of the people who think hes an absolute arse would never vote Tory anyway, does it matter?
I think you'd find that even some Tory voters recognise an absolute arse when they see one, but I could be wrong.
Tories loving that one. Wow. Reform and Labour down whilst they go up, reducing the Labour lead by a full 2%. You know, if they reduced Labour lead by 2% every month to the election - Tory majority territory. This is so 1964 all over again, except the new Tory leader doesn’t have such a silly voice. Clearly all is still to play for.
Alternatively each poll sample is likely to have little margin of error movements here there, let’s spread out 9 Savanta in a row and see if there is any noticeable movement month on month over that time.
Anyone have a market for who the biggest Tory ramper would be?
Last year, would anyone have backed @MoonRabbit over @HYUFD for ToryRamper2023 ??
We proved last evening that the wiki page averaging has Sunak just over 3% from the lowest averaging for Truss. Even HY surrendered in the end. And over the last few days PB has proved nothing has substantially moved in the polls for about 3 months. Except for sure, Sunak’s personal ratings have started to take a dive, and in his head to head best PM with Starmer (universally acknowledged a rating giving inbuilt advantage to incumbent) Starmer is stretching out a sizeable lead.
Would they really be in so deep if they had toughed it out with Boris for the full Parliamentary term? He was taking a midterm hammering from the media, but the polling wasn’t stuck anywhere near this crisis level.
The sack Boris to win the next election by giving someone else a try just just has not worked. Winning the next election is not losing all an eighty seat majority, or somehow clinging to power. It’s hard to see where the swingback for that is going to come from, so the objective now is hope for a hung Parliament and avoid such a reduction in seats coming back to government doesn’t seem such a mountain to climb?
Sunak's appointment of Lee Anderson as Deputy Chair smacks of both poor judgement and desperation. Surely he could have found a less unpleasant and divisive Red Wall MP to represent that end of the grass roots? I don't expect Anderson to last long before causing sufficient offence to be removed.
That looks a very defensive appointment. Forget about winning, shore up enough of the 'tastier' end of the 2019 Boris/Brexit coalition to avoid a 97 type result.
It's worse than that. It's not to avoid a defeat at the election, it's to avoid an ERG vote of No Confidence...
Really? In which case Sunak must be the weakest PM with a big majority there has ever been.
"Spain spends €258m to build trains too big for its tunnels
The embarrassing blunder led to a blame game between Renfe, Spain’s national rail operator, and Adif, the track company, while the country’s Left-wing coalition government also came under fire for failing to notice the error.
Raquel Sanchez, the country’s transport minister, admitted that an “error” had been made and promised those responsible would be dismissed.
Renfe announced that its rolling stock manager had been fired along with Adif’s technology inspectorate head.
The trains must now be redesigned to ensure they can pass safely through tunnels on their intended routes. The first services will not begin until 2026 at the earliest, two years later than expected."
On Anderson, Hands is quite an abrasive character himself. I remember an interview at the time of partygate, very indignant, nothing to see here. Presumably then swapped to Sunak.
I met Hands several times when he was on the payroll of a bank a few years back. He seemed okay, maybe a bit meh.
The big question hasn’t changed. How do they get rid of Biden, but also get rid of the totally unsuitable Harris, rather than leave her as the inevitable nominee - especially given the context around race and gender, that dominates Democratic politics?
Well, it'll be a competitive primary.
And if she doesn't get the votes, she doesn't get the votes.
He has however been clever enough to lay cover for his senility earlier during his career with plenty of gaffes at a younger age.
Joe Biden is definitely old, but is a remarkably effective president for someone supposedly senile. I would say he's the most effective president since Ronald Reagan in getting his agenda through and lining up the forces to that end.
Lucy Frazer, the new SoS at DCMS inherits the gambling review. She is a Cambridge-educated lawyer.
So she should know whether cattle taken in withernam are replevisible, the history of detinue and whether market overt applies to Bermondsey market after sunset before 1995. Is she interested in racing as well?
Lucy Frazer is MP for the bit of Newmarket that is not Matt Hancock's, so is ex officio interested in racing.
The big question hasn’t changed. How do they get rid of Biden, but also get rid of the totally unsuitable Harris, rather than leave her as the inevitable nominee - especially given the context around race and gender, that dominates Democratic politics?
There is a view on the right that Biden is being eased out and that much of the recent news flow around him being as part of that move (the documents scandal only happened because someone with knowledge leaked it to CBS). The rationale goes that the midterms have convinced a fair few in the Democrats that the GOP and particularly Trump pose less of a threat than feared.
Moreover, their view is that they have decided when it comes to Harris to, use a phrase, put the lipstick on the pig and see if it works. Her political history suggests she is quite happy to switch opinions in self-interest. So, have a President Harris for let's say 12 months, with an improving economy, and she may just make it.
If Biden goes before the Primaries, then Harris is President and I can't see her being challenged.
But the amount of time for that is diminishing rapidly. Biden would have to resign as POTUS this year. And I think, if he's not standing again, he'll want to run out his term.
Against a younger candidate Biden's age might be an issue but against what will be a 78 year old Trump in 2024? I doubt it.
Biden has also proved he can beat Trump unlike any other Democrats
I have to agree.
This is probably right, too: … It is very difficult to argue other than that the 80 year old is simply too old and frail to contemplate a second presidential campaign and the possibility if he succeeded of serving as president until his late 80s.
Problem is that Mike consistently said much the same before the last election, as did many others. Biden proved us all wrong then, so it’s going to be pretty hard to dislodge him if he’s determined to run.
The big question hasn’t changed. How do they get rid of Biden, but also get rid of the totally unsuitable Harris, rather than leave her as the inevitable nominee - especially given the context around race and gender, that dominates Democratic politics?
There is a view on the right that Biden is being eased out and that much of the recent news flow around him being as part of that move (the documents scandal only happened because someone with knowledge leaked it to CBS). The rationale goes that the midterms have convinced a fair few in the Democrats that the GOP and particularly Trump pose less of a threat than feared.
Moreover, their view is that they have decided when it comes to Harris to, use a phrase, put the lipstick on the pig and see if it works. Her political history suggests she is quite happy to switch opinions in self-interest. So, have a President Harris for let's say 12 months, with an improving economy, and she may just make it.
President Harris is a Trump wet dream. I would make Trump odds on to beat her.
She is Hillary without the charisma
He needs to get the GOP nomination before he can beat anybody.
"Spain spends €258m to build trains too big for its tunnels
The embarrassing blunder led to a blame game between Renfe, Spain’s national rail operator, and Adif, the track company, while the country’s Left-wing coalition government also came under fire for failing to notice the error.
Raquel Sanchez, the country’s transport minister, admitted that an “error” had been made and promised those responsible would be dismissed.
Renfe announced that its rolling stock manager had been fired along with Adif’s technology inspectorate head.
The trains must now be redesigned to ensure they can pass safely through tunnels on their intended routes. The first services will not begin until 2026 at the earliest, two years later than expected."
On Anderson, Hands is quite an abrasive character himself. I remember an interview at the time of partygate, very indignant, nothing to see here. Presumably then swapped to Sunak.
And apparently some juice on Hands (as it were) to be revealed shortly by a newspaper briefed by Jolyon Maugham. If he’s not just blustering.
Sunak's appointment of Lee Anderson as Deputy Chair smacks of both poor judgement and desperation. Surely he could have found a less unpleasant and divisive Red Wall MP to represent that end of the grass roots? I don't expect Anderson to last long before causing sufficient offence to be removed.
That looks a very defensive appointment. Forget about winning, shore up enough of the 'tastier' end of the 2019 Boris/Brexit coalition to avoid a 97 type result.
Once the new boundaries come in I shall be living in a proper red wall, currently Tory, seat. Not one vote (except his mum's) in the entire of the north of England will hang on the person of an office in the party of which no-one has ever heard.
I wish I could live in a marginal seat once in my life so I could be a real voter whose opinion mattered.
I'm less immersed in, and knowledgeable about, USA politics than most on here, but I can't help but notice the overwhelming consensus that Kamala Harris is useless, and this seems to be an unquestionable fact. But I've yet to read a convincing account of quite what makes her so useless. Is this just PB groupthink, or am I missing something? I rather like her, but I'm genuinely open to being enlightened as to why she's so hopeless and why I need to change my view.
I watched the whole film in the expectation that Biden would do something spectacular with the ice cream cornet but nothing came. The clip where he says families should be united and support each other doesn't do him any discredit either. So he said "f*ck". Big deal.
The big question hasn’t changed. How do they get rid of Biden, but also get rid of the totally unsuitable Harris, rather than leave her as the inevitable nominee - especially given the context around race and gender, that dominates Democratic politics?
Timing, or run with whichever of those two has the better chance even if neither is optimal.
There are many clips of Trump where he comes across as a complete and utter a*sehole. Biden comes across as kind but doddery. Vote for the dotard, or vote for the insane liar?
Like Reagan, sunny-ish experience beats gloomy inexperience (DeSantis) or corrupt stupidity (Trump).
Biden also has a great record, so far. Better, perhaps, than any President since Clinton and sheer getting-stuff-done.
I agree he would ideally need a new VP though.
He saved America and the world from Trump2. If he'd done nothing else that puts him right up there for me. But as it is he has done plenty else. At home, he's got a serious macro-economic package through, and so far he's handling a massive foreign & defence policy challenge (Ukraine) with skill, strength, and sensitivity. I'm a fan.
Agree with this. Not sufficiently recognised - Biden is good at politics.
Like Reagan, sunny-ish experience beats gloomy inexperience (DeSantis) or corrupt stupidity (Trump).
Biden also has a great record, so far. Better, perhaps, than any President since Clinton and sheer getting-stuff-done.
I agree he would ideally need a new VP though.
He saved America and the world from Trump2. If he'd done nothing else that puts him right up there for me. But as it is he has done plenty else. At home, he's got a serious macro-economic package through, and so far he's handling a massive foreign & defence policy challenge (Ukraine) with skill, strength, and sensitivity. I'm a fan.
Agree with this. Not sufficiently recognised - Biden is good at politics.
I watched the whole film in the expectation that Biden would do something spectacular with the ice cream cornet but nothing came. The clip where he says families should be united and support each other doesn't do him any discredit either. So he said "f*ck". Big deal.
The big question hasn’t changed. How do they get rid of Biden, but also get rid of the totally unsuitable Harris, rather than leave her as the inevitable nominee - especially given the context around race and gender, that dominates Democratic politics?
Timing, or run with whichever of those two has the better chance even if neither is optimal.
There are many clips of Trump where he comes across as a complete and utter a*sehole. Biden comes across as kind but doddery. Vote for the dotard, or vote for the insane liar?
"Spain spends €258m to build trains too big for its tunnels
The embarrassing blunder led to a blame game between Renfe, Spain’s national rail operator, and Adif, the track company, while the country’s Left-wing coalition government also came under fire for failing to notice the error.
Raquel Sanchez, the country’s transport minister, admitted that an “error” had been made and promised those responsible would be dismissed.
Renfe announced that its rolling stock manager had been fired along with Adif’s technology inspectorate head.
The trains must now be redesigned to ensure they can pass safely through tunnels on their intended routes. The first services will not begin until 2026 at the earliest, two years later than expected."
Holy cow. Two thousand trains and 15bn euro? You'd really think that's the kind of order you'd double, triple, quadruple check.
I guess the train operator checked the order against the data that the infrastructure owner gave them, trusting the latter was accurate.
In the Goode Olde Days, what they did (sometimes, admittedly) was to mock up with wood and tin plate, the maximum dimensions of new rolling stock. Then run it through to see if it got bashed.
Surely every film should get a better rating from the audience than from critics? The audience is self selecting; those who think it will be a pile of shite don't go to watch it. However, critics are paid to watch it, and can't avoid it however bad they think it will be.
I suffered through about half of this film based on rave reviews from various critics. I should have trusted the viewing public instead.
I watched the whole film in the expectation that Biden would do something spectacular with the ice cream cornet but nothing came. The clip where he says families should be united and support each other doesn't do him any discredit either. So he said "f*ck". Big deal.
The big question hasn’t changed. How do they get rid of Biden, but also get rid of the totally unsuitable Harris, rather than leave her as the inevitable nominee - especially given the context around race and gender, that dominates Democratic politics?
Timing, or run with whichever of those two has the better chance even if neither is optimal.
There are many clips of Trump where he comes across as a complete and utter a*sehole. Biden comes across as kind but doddery. Vote for the dotard, or vote for the insane liar?
In a normal world Biden's overt senility and paedophilia would rule him out of any office.
That comment is foully libellous. But it's so easy to imagine the alt-right side of a Trump campaign running with that kind of thing.
Another angle is it’s not all about one person, but the teams they build in government and how they deliver. Rather than Trump v Biden as the mental and physical ability of each man, there is a strong and stable government v chaos and unstable governmrnt that struggles to deliver, a call the independent minded who will decide the next US election will make. They sort of set a precedent returning Reagan for a second term, in liking how they were being governed by his administration? That makes it a mountain to climb for any challenger?
There’s also an angle in how deep does US intelligence, security and Military go are in distrusting, fear and loathing Trump, the investment in Ukraine for example, so if Trump did start to look like a winner they would like, do stuff?
I’m not sure why Digital was removed wholesale from DCMS.
Rather, digital MEDIA should have stayed, and digital TECHNOLOGY and INFRA should have moved.
I’m far from convinced Sunak has a clue. These re-orgs don’t especially signal big priorities and cause some months of internal distraction when presumably every week counts for Tory electoral chances.
Creating a department of energy makes a lot of sense.
Will write up that report at some point, got busy over the weekend, kids and all that.
It does, especially with the 'security' bit added, but the net zero bit seems to cancel that out. It's like having a Minister for having cake who also holds the brief for eating cake.
Tories loving that one. Wow. Reform and Labour down whilst they go up, reducing the Labour lead by a full 2%. You know, if they reduced Labour lead by 2% every month to the election - Tory majority territory. This is so 1964 all over again, except the new Tory leader doesn’t have such a silly voice. Clearly all is still to play for.
Alternatively each poll sample is likely to have little margin of error movements here there, let’s spread out 9 Savanta in a row and see if there is any noticeable movement month on month over that time.
Anyone have a market for who the biggest Tory ramper would be?
Last year, would anyone have backed @MoonRabbit over @HYUFD for ToryRamper2023 ??
We proved last evening that the wiki page averaging has Sunak just over 3% from the lowest averaging for Truss. Even HY surrendered in the end. And over the last few days PB has proved nothing has substantially moved in the polls for about 3 months. Except for sure, Sunak’s personal ratings have started to take a dive, and in his head to head best PM with Starmer (universally acknowledged a rating giving inbuilt advantage to incumbent) Starmer is stretching out a sizeable lead.
Would they really be in so deep if they had toughed it out with Boris for the full Parliamentary term? He was taking a midterm hammering from the media, but the polling wasn’t stuck anywhere near this crisis level.
The sack Boris to win the next election by giving someone else a try just just has not worked. Winning the next election is not losing all an eighty seat majority, or somehow clinging to power. It’s hard to see where the swingback for that is going to come from, so the objective now is hope for a hung Parliament and avoid such a reduction in seats coming back to government doesn’t seem such a mountain to climb?
No I didn't. As I made clear last night you included polls from after Truss resigned for Truss when Sunak was in effect PM elect and polls before the markets crashed for Truss too
He has however been clever enough to lay cover for his senility earlier during his career with plenty of gaffes at a younger age.
Joe Biden is definitely old, but is a remarkably effective president for someone supposedly senile. I would say he's the most effective president since Ronald Reagan in getting his agenda through and lining up the forces to that end.
That's a rather silly argument. If the local fish and chip shop owner kept burning himself and setting the place on fire due to senility, you wouldn't say 'Hmmm, he seems to run a very profitable chip shop for one so senile!' - either he is senile, and would be better placed elsewhere, or he isn't. If he is, responsibility for the 'effectiveness' of his administration clearly lies elsewhere.
He has however been clever enough to lay cover for his senility earlier during his career with plenty of gaffes at a younger age.
Joe Biden is definitely old, but is a remarkably effective president for someone supposedly senile. I would say he's the most effective president since Ronald Reagan in getting his agenda through and lining up the forces to that end.
That's a rather silly argument. If the local fish and chip shop owner kept burning himself and setting the place on fire due to senility, you wouldn't say 'Hmmm, he seems to run a very profitable chip shop for one so senile!' - either he is senile, and would be better placed elsewhere, or he isn't. If he is, responsibility for the 'effectiveness' of his administration clearly lies elsewhere.
And yes, I am starving and now want chips for dinner.
Surely every film should get a better rating from the audience than from critics? The audience is self selecting; those who think it will be a pile of shite don't go to watch it. However, critics are paid to watch it, and can't avoid it however bad they think it will be.
I suffered through about half of this film based on rave reviews from various critics. I should have trusted the viewing public instead.
And yes, there is a lot of potato peeling in it. Particularly well done in the second act.
A really interesting film, though builds very slowly.
The fact that Citizen Kane comes in the top five of every critic's 'best film of all time' list, tells you all you need to know about the rank stupidity of film critics.
He has however been clever enough to lay cover for his senility earlier during his career with plenty of gaffes at a younger age.
Joe Biden is definitely old, but is a remarkably effective president for someone supposedly senile. I would say he's the most effective president since Ronald Reagan in getting his agenda through and lining up the forces to that end.
That's a rather silly argument. If the local fish and chip shop owner kept burning himself and setting the place on fire due to senility, you wouldn't say 'Hmmm, he seems to run a very profitable chip shop for one so senile!' - either he is senile, and would be better placed elsewhere, or he isn't. If he is, responsibility for the 'effectiveness' of his administration clearly lies elsewhere.
Why is it "silly argument" to say that a remarkably effective President on any analysis... is a remarkably effective President ?
"Spain spends €258m to build trains too big for its tunnels
The embarrassing blunder led to a blame game between Renfe, Spain’s national rail operator, and Adif, the track company, while the country’s Left-wing coalition government also came under fire for failing to notice the error.
Raquel Sanchez, the country’s transport minister, admitted that an “error” had been made and promised those responsible would be dismissed.
Renfe announced that its rolling stock manager had been fired along with Adif’s technology inspectorate head.
The trains must now be redesigned to ensure they can pass safely through tunnels on their intended routes. The first services will not begin until 2026 at the earliest, two years later than expected."
Holy cow. Two thousand trains and 15bn euro? You'd really think that's the kind of order you'd double, triple, quadruple check.
I guess the train operator checked the order against the data that the infrastructure owner gave them, trusting the latter was accurate.
In the Goode Olde Days, what they did (sometimes, admittedly) was to mock up with wood and tin plate, the maximum dimensions of new rolling stock. Then run it through to see if it got bashed.
Did they? I'm not aware of a case where they did that (in the UK at least).
At one level, they had (and I've used one), a permanent way trolley would be run through structures, with a low wooden structure to pick up widths (as platform distances are a killer). Nowadays, with unusual rolling stock, they do a proving run.
Goods depots (as was pre 1970) used to have a loading gauge, to check everything loaded was within gauge.
But I have never, ever, seen a picture of a mock-up of a full loading gauge run up and down the line. And I've seen pictures of wooden huts built on the front of steam locos, so that engineers could measure smokebox pressures...
The problem is one of dynamics. A trolley containing a wooded and tin-plate structure being run through at 10MPH exhibits very different behaviour to one being run through at 60 MPH. They sway, and in a way that is quite hard to model. Running one through can be the best way - especially with modern 'mind the gap' concerns with accessibility.
Tories loving that one. Wow. Reform and Labour down whilst they go up, reducing the Labour lead by a full 2%. You know, if they reduced Labour lead by 2% every month to the election - Tory majority territory. This is so 1964 all over again, except the new Tory leader doesn’t have such a silly voice. Clearly all is still to play for.
Alternatively each poll sample is likely to have little margin of error movements here there, let’s spread out 9 Savanta in a row and see if there is any noticeable movement month on month over that time.
Anyone have a market for who the biggest Tory ramper would be?
Last year, would anyone have backed @MoonRabbit over @HYUFD for ToryRamper2023 ??
We proved last evening that the wiki page averaging has Sunak just over 3% from the lowest averaging for Truss. Even HY surrendered in the end. And over the last few days PB has proved nothing has substantially moved in the polls for about 3 months. Except for sure, Sunak’s personal ratings have started to take a dive, and in his head to head best PM with Starmer (universally acknowledged a rating giving inbuilt advantage to incumbent) Starmer is stretching out a sizeable lead.
Would they really be in so deep if they had toughed it out with Boris for the full Parliamentary term? He was taking a midterm hammering from the media, but the polling wasn’t stuck anywhere near this crisis level.
The sack Boris to win the next election by giving someone else a try just just has not worked. Winning the next election is not losing all an eighty seat majority, or somehow clinging to power. It’s hard to see where the swingback for that is going to come from, so the objective now is hope for a hung Parliament and avoid such a reduction in seats coming back to government doesn’t seem such a mountain to climb?
No I didn't. As I made clear last night you included polls from after Truss resigned for Truss when Sunak was in effect PM elect and polls before the markets crashed for Truss too
Absolutely. As you made clear last night, Sunak has improved the Tories by an average of about 5%, taking into a account all the Truss period polls where they averaged 5% less than recent Sunak ones.
He has however been clever enough to lay cover for his senility earlier during his career with plenty of gaffes at a younger age.
Joe Biden is definitely old, but is a remarkably effective president for someone supposedly senile. I would say he's the most effective president since Ronald Reagan in getting his agenda through and lining up the forces to that end.
That's a rather silly argument. If the local fish and chip shop owner kept burning himself and setting the place on fire due to senility, you wouldn't say 'Hmmm, he seems to run a very profitable chip shop for one so senile!' - either he is senile, and would be better placed elsewhere, or he isn't. If he is, responsibility for the 'effectiveness' of his administration clearly lies elsewhere.
Why is it "silly argument" to say that a remarkably effective President on any analysis... is a remarkably effective President ?
You analogy is very silly.
I took FF's meaning to be using the supposed effectiveness of Joe Biden's administration as evidence against his supposed senility.
Lucy Frazer, the new SoS at DCMS inherits the gambling review. She is a Cambridge-educated lawyer.
Who was President of the Union Society when I ran the ball. So I know her well.
People you have previously name-dropped on pb.com from your time in Trinity include Kwasi Kwarteng (the most disastrous CofE ever) & Sanjeev Gupta (as wiki delicately puts it, "under scrutiny" regarding the collapse of Greensill Capital).
I fear for the horror that will now inevitably befall Lucy Frazer.
Like Reagan, sunny-ish experience beats gloomy inexperience (DeSantis) or corrupt stupidity (Trump).
Biden also has a great record, so far. Better, perhaps, than any President since Clinton and sheer getting-stuff-done.
I agree he would ideally need a new VP though.
He saved America and the world from Trump2. If he'd done nothing else that puts him right up there for me. But as it is he has done plenty else. At home, he's got a serious macro-economic package through, and so far he's handling a massive foreign & defence policy challenge (Ukraine) with skill, strength, and sensitivity. I'm a fan.
Agree with this. Not sufficiently recognised - Biden is good at politics.
Yes and re the suggestion he stands down to give Harris some Prez time to help her win WH24, no I don't see any prospect of this unless there truly is a genuine serious medical issue. Which I see little evidence of. To me he looks and acts his age, none of this new fangled, delusional "80 is the new 55" nonsense. It's no more or less than that imo.
He has however been clever enough to lay cover for his senility earlier during his career with plenty of gaffes at a younger age.
Joe Biden is definitely old, but is a remarkably effective president for someone supposedly senile. I would say he's the most effective president since Ronald Reagan in getting his agenda through and lining up the forces to that end.
That's a rather silly argument. If the local fish and chip shop owner kept burning himself and setting the place on fire due to senility, you wouldn't say 'Hmmm, he seems to run a very profitable chip shop for one so senile!' - either he is senile, and would be better placed elsewhere, or he isn't. If he is, responsibility for the 'effectiveness' of his administration clearly lies elsewhere.
It's a bit more interesting than that. Reagan definitely was senile, but he completely transformed American politics from a liberal consensus to a conservative one. Konrad Adenauer who I assess to be the greatest post-War leader edged into senility during his long span in office. It seems there can be a period where you can achieve great things before you are too far gone.
You're wrong on your final point. Biden is very hands-on. The effectiveness comes from him, not competent underlings.
Perhaps President Biden ought, if challenged about his age, adopt the same attitude as then-President Reagan did when challenged by Walter Mondale in 1984.
Many of the arguments being used about Biden now were used against Reagan then and there's a general concensus Reagan's eight years were among the most successful in recent American history.
Redfield & Wilton has its latest round of Red Wall polling - last evening's UK-wide poll had a swing of 19.5% in England. Tonight's Red Wall has a swing of 16% from Conservative to labour so that begs the question as to whether the Conservatives are actually doing worse in some of their core areas then the national UNS would suggest.
The 2019 Conservative vote splits 51% Conservative, 18% Labour and 17% Don't Know which is a little better than last night's UK-wide numbers.
He has however been clever enough to lay cover for his senility earlier during his career with plenty of gaffes at a younger age.
Joe Biden is definitely old, but is a remarkably effective president for someone supposedly senile. I would say he's the most effective president since Ronald Reagan in getting his agenda through and lining up the forces to that end.
That's a rather silly argument. If the local fish and chip shop owner kept burning himself and setting the place on fire due to senility, you wouldn't say 'Hmmm, he seems to run a very profitable chip shop for one so senile!' - either he is senile, and would be better placed elsewhere, or he isn't. If he is, responsibility for the 'effectiveness' of his administration clearly lies elsewhere.
It's a bit more interesting than that. Reagan definitely was senile, but he completely transformed American politics from a liberal consensus to a conservative one. Konrad Adenauer who I assess to be the greatest post-War leader edged into senility during his long span in office. It seems there can be a period where you can achieve great things before you are too far gone.
You're wrong on your final point. Biden is very hands-on. The effectiveness comes from him, not competent underlings.
I suppose the difference with the chip shop analogy, so far at least, is that he’s not burnt anywhere down.
Trying to think whether we’ve ever had a cabinet minister who was senile. Not that I can think of. They tend to be a bit younger in the UK.
Surely every film should get a better rating from the audience than from critics? The audience is self selecting; those who think it will be a pile of shite don't go to watch it. However, critics are paid to watch it, and can't avoid it however bad they think it will be.
I suffered through about half of this film based on rave reviews from various critics. I should have trusted the viewing public instead.
And yes, there is a lot of potato peeling in it. Particularly well done in the second act.
A really interesting film, though builds very slowly.
The fact that Citizen Kane comes in the top five of every critic's 'best film of all time' list, tells you all you need to know about the rank stupidity of film critics.
Thing is, if you adjust for age - since films like most everything else are better now than they used to be - then CK really does belong in that top 5.
Since Trump escaped impeachment I've thought that the most likely scenario is that Trump is the Republican nominee for 2024, and consequently Biden becomes irreplaceable as the Democrat nominee as, not only the incumbent, but also the only politician proven to have beaten Trump.
If the Democrats force Biden to stand aside then Trump will most likely win a second term. Harris will lose to him, as will Mayor Pete. Who else is there?
He has however been clever enough to lay cover for his senility earlier during his career with plenty of gaffes at a younger age.
Joe Biden is definitely old, but is a remarkably effective president for someone supposedly senile. I would say he's the most effective president since Ronald Reagan in getting his agenda through and lining up the forces to that end.
That's a rather silly argument. If the local fish and chip shop owner kept burning himself and setting the place on fire due to senility, you wouldn't say 'Hmmm, he seems to run a very profitable chip shop for one so senile!' - either he is senile, and would be better placed elsewhere, or he isn't. If he is, responsibility for the 'effectiveness' of his administration clearly lies elsewhere.
It's a bit more interesting than that. Reagan definitely was senile, but he completely transformed American politics from a liberal consensus to a conservative one. Konrad Adenauer who I assess to be the greatest post-War leader edged into senility during his long span in office. It seems there can be a period where you can achieve great things before you are too far gone.
You're wrong on your final point. Biden is very hands-on. The effectiveness comes from him, not competent underlings.
I suppose the difference with the chip shop analogy, so far at least, is that he’s not burnt anywhere down.
Trying to think whether we’ve ever had a cabinet minister who was senile. Not that I can think of. They tend to be a bit younger in the UK.
Wilson resigned when he felt it coming, didn't he.
My dad died yesterday peacefully. 96 years old so a good innings. Excellent care by the NHS since Christmas Day when he collapsed with covid.
Having been critical of @hyufd re his views on inheritance I am almost certainly going to do what he suggests. I am going to inherit half of a small semi. I can't spend the money I currently have before I die so will probably pass my inheritance to my children. Sigh.
Comments
No. Sixth like Rees-Mogg Jr
Moreover, their view is that they have decided when it comes to Harris to,
use a phrase, put the lipstick on the pig and see if it works. Her political history suggests she is quite happy to switch opinions in self-interest. So, have a President Harris for let's say 12 months, with an improving economy, and she may just make it.
"The Whale" film.
Audience rating 91%
Critics rating 65%
https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_whale_2022
Is there an actual “Next President” market anywhere, as opposed to “President sworn in on Jan 20, 2025” market?
Rather, digital MEDIA should have stayed, and digital TECHNOLOGY and INFRA should have moved.
I’m far from convinced Sunak has a clue.
These re-orgs don’t especially signal big priorities and cause some months of internal distraction when presumably every week counts for Tory electoral chances.
Like Reagan, sunny-ish experience beats gloomy inexperience (DeSantis) or corrupt stupidity (Trump).
Biden also has a great record, so far.
Better, perhaps, than any President since Clinton and sheer getting-stuff-done.
I agree he would ideally need a new VP though.
Will write up that report at some point, got busy over the weekend, kids and all that.
Alternatively each poll sample is likely to have little margin of error movements here there, let’s spread out 9 Savanta in a row and see if there is any noticeable movement month on month over that time.
I accept there is a small slice of the general population and a larger slice indeed of membership that likes what Lee Anderson says.
But I propose that it is smaller than the number of people who think he is absolute arse.
Last year, would anyone have backed @MoonRabbit over @HYUFD for ToryRamper2023 ??
Biden has also proved he can beat Trump unlike any other Democrats
https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/skinamarink
She is Hillary without the charisma
"Spain spends €258m to build trains too big for its tunnels
The embarrassing blunder led to a blame game between Renfe, Spain’s national rail operator, and Adif, the track company, while the country’s Left-wing coalition government also came under fire for failing to notice the error.
Raquel Sanchez, the country’s transport minister, admitted that an “error” had been made and promised those responsible would be dismissed.
Renfe announced that its rolling stock manager had been fired along with Adif’s technology inspectorate head.
The trains must now be redesigned to ensure they can pass safely through tunnels on their intended routes. The first services will not begin until 2026 at the earliest, two years later than expected."
Biden is vastly superior.
Would they really be in so deep if they had toughed it out with Boris for the full Parliamentary term? He was taking a midterm hammering from the media, but the polling wasn’t stuck anywhere near this crisis level.
The sack Boris to win the next election by giving someone else a try just just has not worked. Winning the next election is not losing all an eighty seat majority, or somehow clinging to power. It’s hard to see where the swingback for that is going to come from, so the objective now is hope for a hung Parliament and avoid such a reduction in seats coming back to government doesn’t seem such a mountain to climb?
And if she doesn't get the votes, she doesn't get the votes.
But the amount of time for that is diminishing rapidly. Biden would have to resign as POTUS this year. And I think, if he's not standing again, he'll want to run out his term.
This is probably right, too:
… It is very difficult to argue other than that the 80 year old is simply too old and frail to contemplate a second presidential campaign and the possibility if he succeeded of serving as president until his late 80s.
Problem is that Mike consistently said much the same before the last election, as did many others. Biden proved us all wrong then, so it’s going to be pretty hard to dislodge him if he’s determined to run.
Timing, or run with whichever of those two has the better chance even if neither is optimal.
There are many clips of Trump where he comes across as a complete and utter a*sehole. Biden comes across as kind but doddery.
Vote for the dotard, or vote for the insane liar? That comment is foully libellous. But it's so easy to imagine the alt-right side of a Trump campaign running with that kind of thing.
https://player.bfi.org.uk/subscription/film/watch-jeanne-dielman-23-quai-du-commerce-1080-bruxelles-1975-online
And yes, there is a lot of potato peeling in it. Particularly well done in the second act.
A really interesting film, though builds very slowly.
There’s also an angle in how deep does US intelligence, security and Military go are in distrusting, fear and loathing Trump, the investment in Ukraine for example, so if Trump did start to look like a winner they would like, do stuff?
Do voters in the Red Wall believe the Government is currently taking the right measures to address the cost-of-living crisis? (5 February)
No 70% (+7)
Yes 18% (-4)
Don't know 13% (-2)
Changes +/- 23 January
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1623018941109895171
You analogy is very silly.
Braverman, Raab*, Barclay, Dowden, Frazer, and Jenrick.
*Originally went to the dump then realised he needed to go the best.
At one level, they had (and I've used one), a permanent way trolley would be run through structures, with a low wooden structure to pick up widths (as platform distances are a killer). Nowadays, with unusual rolling stock, they do a proving run.
Goods depots (as was pre 1970) used to have a loading gauge, to check everything loaded was within gauge.
But I have never, ever, seen a picture of a mock-up of a full loading gauge run up and down the line. And I've seen pictures of wooden huts built on the front of steam locos, so that engineers could measure smokebox pressures...
The problem is one of dynamics. A trolley containing a wooded and tin-plate structure being run through at 10MPH exhibits very different behaviour to one being run through at 60 MPH. They sway, and in a way that is quite hard to model. Running one through can be the best way - especially with modern 'mind the gap' concerns with accessibility.
Although in this discussion, it should be remembered that Spain recently built submarines that could sink very well, but not surface:
https://www.military.com/military-life/how-misplaced-decimal-point-nearly-took-down-spains-newest-submarines.html
And BTW, this is a brilliant site - if you can stand the Web 1.0 formatting:
http://www.traintesting.com/
Keeping up with UK Prime Ministers would be challenging for someone half his age
Although you appear to have risen above the disadvantage of your education in a way they didn't.
I fear for the horror that will now inevitably befall Lucy Frazer.
You're wrong on your final point. Biden is very hands-on. The effectiveness comes from him, not competent underlings.
Perhaps President Biden ought, if challenged about his age, adopt the same attitude as then-President Reagan did when challenged by Walter Mondale in 1984.
Many of the arguments being used about Biden now were used against Reagan then and there's a general concensus Reagan's eight years were among the most successful in recent American history.
Redfield & Wilton has its latest round of Red Wall polling - last evening's UK-wide poll had a swing of 19.5% in England. Tonight's Red Wall has a swing of 16% from Conservative to labour so that begs the question as to whether the Conservatives are actually doing worse in some of their core areas then the national UNS would suggest.
The 2019 Conservative vote splits 51% Conservative, 18% Labour and 17% Don't Know which is a little better than last night's UK-wide numbers.
Trying to think whether we’ve ever had a cabinet minister who was senile. Not that I can think of. They tend to be a bit younger in the UK.
If the Democrats force Biden to stand aside then Trump will most likely win a second term. Harris will lose to him, as will Mayor Pete. Who else is there?
Having been critical of @hyufd re his views on inheritance I am almost certainly going to do what he suggests. I am going to inherit half of a small semi. I can't spend the money I currently have before I die so will probably pass my inheritance to my children. Sigh.