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The pressure mounts on Biden not to run in WH2024 – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,007
edited February 2023 in General
The pressure mounts on Biden not to run in WH2024 – politicalbetting.com

It does not take long searching on YouTube to find compilation videos like the one above showing gaffes by 80 year old Joe Biden. As we look forward to WH2024 the incumbent’s age is becoming the big issue.

Read the full story here

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Comments

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    :)
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    A place of my own it seems....
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    And I am not really interested in US politics
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    I wonder if I should tell the others to get over to this one?
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,129
    Yes, I'm far from sure but my longtime feeling that neither Biden nor Trump will be the nominee for their parties in 24 remains quite strong. Betting: I'm flat Biden, very short Trump, long all others.
  • Options
    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    edited February 2023
    Fifth?

    No. Sixth like Rees-Mogg Jr
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,059
    Biden the VPOTUS as seen on the BBC2 Putin thing last night was far more cogent and composed than Biden the POTUS.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,129

    A place of my own it seems....

    I'd have been 1st if it weren't for you. As it is, I'm 5th. Grrr.
  • Options
    kinabalu said:

    A place of my own it seems....

    I'd have been 1st if it weren't for you. As it is, I'm 5th. Grrr.
    Hey! It was me who told you in the other thread!!
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,847
    edited February 2023
    The big question hasn’t changed. How do they get rid of Biden, but also get rid of the totally unsuitable Harris, rather than leave her as the inevitable nominee - especially given the context around race and gender, that dominates Democratic politics?
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,226
    kinabalu said:

    A place of my own it seems....

    I'd have been 1st if it weren't for you. As it is, I'm 5th. Grrr.
    No, you were second. A PB'er can only stand on one podium at a time.
  • Options
    Lucy Frazer, the new SoS at DCMS inherits the gambling review. She is a Cambridge-educated lawyer.
  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    The big question hasn’t changed. How do they get rid of Biden, but also get rid of the totally unsuitable Harris, rather than leave her as the inevitable nominee - especially given the context around race and gender, that dominates Democratic politics?

    There is a view on the right that Biden is being eased out and that much of the recent news flow around him being as part of that move (the documents scandal only happened because someone with knowledge leaked it to CBS). The rationale goes that the midterms have convinced a fair few in the Democrats that the GOP and particularly Trump pose less of a threat than feared.

    Moreover, their view is that they have decided when it comes to Harris to,
    use a phrase, put the lipstick on the pig and see if it works. Her political history suggests she is quite happy to switch opinions in self-interest. So, have a President Harris for let's say 12 months, with an improving economy, and she may just make it.


  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,470
    O/T

    "The Whale" film.

    Audience rating 91%
    Critics rating 65%

    https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_whale_2022
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,495

    Lucy Frazer, the new SoS at DCMS inherits the gambling review. She is a Cambridge-educated lawyer.

    So she should know whether cattle taken in withernam are replevisible, the history of detinue and whether market overt applies to Bermondsey market after sunset before 1995. Is she interested in racing as well?
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,847

    Sandpit said:

    The big question hasn’t changed. How do they get rid of Biden, but also get rid of the totally unsuitable Harris, rather than leave her as the inevitable nominee - especially given the context around race and gender, that dominates Democratic politics?

    There is a view on the right that Biden is being eased out and that much of the recent news flow around him being as part of that move (the documents scandal only happened because someone with knowledge leaked it to CBS). The rationale goes that the midterms have convinced a fair few in the Democrats that the GOP and particularly Trump pose less of a threat than feared.

    Moreover, their view is that they have decided when it comes to Harris to,
    use a phrase, put the lipstick on the pig and see if it works. Her political history suggests she is quite happy to switch opinions in self-interest. So, have a President Harris for let's say 12 months, with an improving economy, and she may just make it.
    You’re thinking that Biden stands aside this year, and Harris goes into the election as the incumbent president?

    Is there an actual “Next President” market anywhere, as opposed to “President sworn in on Jan 20, 2025” market?
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,847

    Lucy Frazer, the new SoS at DCMS inherits the gambling review. She is a Cambridge-educated lawyer.

    Latest in a long line, of Cambridge-educated lawyers who understand nothing about gambling?
  • Options
    DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The big question hasn’t changed. How do they get rid of Biden, but also get rid of the totally unsuitable Harris, rather than leave her as the inevitable nominee - especially given the context around race and gender, that dominates Democratic politics?

    There is a view on the right that Biden is being eased out and that much of the recent news flow around him being as part of that move (the documents scandal only happened because someone with knowledge leaked it to CBS). The rationale goes that the midterms have convinced a fair few in the Democrats that the GOP and particularly Trump pose less of a threat than feared.

    Moreover, their view is that they have decided when it comes to Harris to,
    use a phrase, put the lipstick on the pig and see if it works. Her political history suggests she is quite happy to switch opinions in self-interest. So, have a President Harris for let's say 12 months, with an improving economy, and she may just make it.
    You’re thinking that Biden stands aside this year, and Harris goes into the election as the incumbent president?

    Is there an actual “Next President” market anywhere, as opposed to “President sworn in on Jan 20, 2025” market?
    If there is, Oddschecker doesn't know about it.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,845
    I’m not sure why Digital was removed wholesale from DCMS.

    Rather, digital MEDIA should have stayed, and digital TECHNOLOGY and INFRA should have moved.

    I’m far from convinced Sunak has a clue.
    These re-orgs don’t especially signal big priorities and cause some months of internal distraction when presumably every week counts for Tory electoral chances.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,845
    Biden will be fine.

    Like Reagan, sunny-ish experience beats gloomy inexperience (DeSantis) or corrupt stupidity (Trump).

    Biden also has a great record, so far.
    Better, perhaps, than any President since Clinton and sheer getting-stuff-done.

    I agree he would ideally need a new VP though.

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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    I’m not sure why Digital was removed wholesale from DCMS.

    Rather, digital MEDIA should have stayed, and digital TECHNOLOGY and INFRA should have moved.

    I’m far from convinced Sunak has a clue.
    These re-orgs don’t especially signal big priorities and cause some months of internal distraction when presumably every week counts for Tory electoral chances.

    Creating a department of energy makes a lot of sense.

    Will write up that report at some point, got busy over the weekend, kids and all that.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,242

    Biden will be fine.

    Like Reagan, sunny-ish experience beats gloomy inexperience (DeSantis) or corrupt stupidity (Trump).

    Biden also has a great record, so far.
    Better, perhaps, than any President since Clinton and sheer getting-stuff-done.

    I agree he would ideally need a new VP though.

    Perfect would be to get Harris onto the Supreme Court. I think she would see that as a promotion, and it is a very high prestige job, for life.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,581
    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    "The Whale" film.

    Audience rating 91%
    Critics rating 65%

    https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_whale_2022

    Surely every film should get a better rating from the audience than from critics? The audience is self selecting; those who think it will be a pile of shite don't go to watch it. However, critics are paid to watch it, and can't avoid it however bad they think it will be.
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    ...

    Scott_xP said:

    @Savanta_UK: 🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention

    📈19pt Labour Lead

    🌹Lab 46 (-1)
    🌳Con 27 (+1)
    🔶LD 9 (=)
    ➡️Reform 5 (-1)
    🌍Green 4… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622986891917201415

    Paging Rabbit.
    Tories loving that one. Wow. Reform and Labour down whilst they go up, reducing the Labour lead by a full 2%. You know, if they reduced Labour lead by 2% every month to the election - Tory majority territory. This is so 1964 all over again, except the new Tory leader doesn’t have such a silly voice. Clearly all is still to play for.

    Alternatively each poll sample is likely to have little margin of error movements here there, let’s spread out 9 Savanta in a row and see if there is any noticeable movement month on month over that time.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,845

    Sunak's appointment of Lee Anderson as Deputy Chair smacks of both poor judgement and desperation. Surely he could have found a less unpleasant and divisive Red Wall MP to represent that end of the grass roots? I don't expect Anderson to last long before causing sufficient offence to be removed.

    Yes, it’s another example of Rishi’s cloth-eared approach to appointments.

    I accept there is a small slice of the general population and a larger slice indeed of membership that likes what Lee Anderson says.

    But I propose that it is smaller than the number of people who think he is absolute arse.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,242

    ...

    Scott_xP said:

    @Savanta_UK: 🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention

    📈19pt Labour Lead

    🌹Lab 46 (-1)
    🌳Con 27 (+1)
    🔶LD 9 (=)
    ➡️Reform 5 (-1)
    🌍Green 4… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622986891917201415

    Paging Rabbit.
    Tories loving that one. Wow. Reform and Labour down whilst they go up, reducing the Labour lead by a full 2%. You know, if they reduced Labour lead by 2% every month to the election - Tory majority territory. This is so 1964 all over again, except the new Tory leader doesn’t have such a silly voice. Clearly all is still to play for.

    Alternatively each poll sample is likely to have little margin of error movements here there, let’s spread out 9 Savanta in a row and see if there is any noticeable movement month on month over that time.
    Anyone have a market for who the biggest Tory ramper would be?

    Last year, would anyone have backed @MoonRabbit over @HYUFD for ToryRamper2023 ??
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,581
    After "BEIS, say it like Bayswater", apparently DESNZ should be pronounced like des-res.
  • Options

    Biden will be fine.

    Like Reagan, sunny-ish experience beats gloomy inexperience (DeSantis) or corrupt stupidity (Trump).

    Biden also has a great record, so far.
    Better, perhaps, than any President since Clinton and sheer getting-stuff-done.

    I agree he would ideally need a new VP though.

    This is the Clinton who signed off the repeal of Glass-Steagall, which led to the GFC - that Clinton?
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,129

    Sunak's appointment of Lee Anderson as Deputy Chair smacks of both poor judgement and desperation. Surely he could have found a less unpleasant and divisive Red Wall MP to represent that end of the grass roots? I don't expect Anderson to last long before causing sufficient offence to be removed.

    That looks a very defensive appointment. Forget about winning, shore up enough of the 'tastier' end of the 2019 Boris/Brexit coalition to avoid a 97 type result.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,495
    Sandpit said:

    Lucy Frazer, the new SoS at DCMS inherits the gambling review. She is a Cambridge-educated lawyer.

    Latest in a long line, of Cambridge-educated lawyers who understand nothing about gambling?
    But they can tell the difference between socage and turbary, the rules of trial by combat, and how to obtain a writ of fieri facias which at the end of the day is what matters.

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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,845

    Biden will be fine.

    Like Reagan, sunny-ish experience beats gloomy inexperience (DeSantis) or corrupt stupidity (Trump).

    Biden also has a great record, so far.
    Better, perhaps, than any President since Clinton and sheer getting-stuff-done.

    I agree he would ideally need a new VP though.

    This is the Clinton who signed off the repeal of Glass-Steagall, which led to the GFC - that Clinton?
    I’m talking in the round, you walrus.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    Against a younger candidate Biden's age might be an issue but against what will be a 78 year old Trump in 2024? I doubt it.

    Biden has also proved he can beat Trump unlike any other Democrats
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    DriverDriver Posts: 4,522

    Sunak's appointment of Lee Anderson as Deputy Chair smacks of both poor judgement and desperation. Surely he could have found a less unpleasant and divisive Red Wall MP to represent that end of the grass roots? I don't expect Anderson to last long before causing sufficient offence to be removed.

    Yes, it’s another example of Rishi’s cloth-eared approach to appointments.

    I accept there is a small slice of the general population and a larger slice indeed of membership that likes what Lee Anderson says.

    But I propose that it is smaller than the number of people who think he is absolute arse.
    Which is true, but if the vast majority of the people who think hes an absolute arse would never vote Tory anyway, does it matter?
  • Options
    ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 2,910

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    "The Whale" film.

    Audience rating 91%
    Critics rating 65%

    https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_whale_2022

    Surely every film should get a better rating from the audience than from critics? The audience is self selecting; those who think it will be a pile of shite don't go to watch it. However, critics are paid to watch it, and can't avoid it however bad they think it will be.
    I suffered through about half of this film based on rave reviews from various critics. I should have trusted the viewing public instead.

    https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/skinamarink

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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,865
    kinabalu said:

    Sunak's appointment of Lee Anderson as Deputy Chair smacks of both poor judgement and desperation. Surely he could have found a less unpleasant and divisive Red Wall MP to represent that end of the grass roots? I don't expect Anderson to last long before causing sufficient offence to be removed.

    That looks a very defensive appointment. Forget about winning, shore up enough of the 'tastier' end of the 2019 Boris/Brexit coalition to avoid a 97 type result.
    It's worse than that. It's not to avoid a defeat at the election, it's to avoid an ERG vote of No Confidence...
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,495
    kinabalu said:

    Sunak's appointment of Lee Anderson as Deputy Chair smacks of both poor judgement and desperation. Surely he could have found a less unpleasant and divisive Red Wall MP to represent that end of the grass roots? I don't expect Anderson to last long before causing sufficient offence to be removed.

    That looks a very defensive appointment. Forget about winning, shore up enough of the 'tastier' end of the 2019 Boris/Brexit coalition to avoid a 97 type result.
    Once the new boundaries come in I shall be living in a proper red wall, currently Tory, seat. Not one vote (except his mum's) in the entire of the north of England will hang on the person of an office in the party of which no-one has ever heard.

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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    edited February 2023

    Sandpit said:

    The big question hasn’t changed. How do they get rid of Biden, but also get rid of the totally unsuitable Harris, rather than leave her as the inevitable nominee - especially given the context around race and gender, that dominates Democratic politics?

    There is a view on the right that Biden is being eased out and that much of the recent news flow around him being as part of that move (the documents scandal only happened because someone with knowledge leaked it to CBS). The rationale goes that the midterms have convinced a fair few in the Democrats that the GOP and particularly Trump pose less of a threat than feared.

    Moreover, their view is that they have decided when it comes to Harris to,
    use a phrase, put the lipstick on the pig and see if it works. Her political history suggests she is quite happy to switch opinions in self-interest. So, have a President Harris for let's say 12 months, with an improving economy, and she may just make it.


    President Harris is a Trump wet dream. I would make Trump odds on to beat her.

    She is Hillary without the charisma
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,865

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    "The Whale" film.

    Audience rating 91%
    Critics rating 65%

    https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_whale_2022

    Surely every film should get a better rating from the audience than from critics? The audience is self selecting; those who think it will be a pile of shite don't go to watch it. However, critics are paid to watch it, and can't avoid it however bad they think it will be.
    I made the mistake of watching the Banshees of Inisherin last week
  • Options
    ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 2,910
    Don't think this has been posted : https://www.msn.com/en-gb/travel/news/spain-spends-258m-to-build-trains-too-big-for-its-tunnels/ar-AA17d0zZ

    "Spain spends €258m to build trains too big for its tunnels

    The embarrassing blunder led to a blame game between Renfe, Spain’s national rail operator, and Adif, the track company, while the country’s Left-wing coalition government also came under fire for failing to notice the error.

    Raquel Sanchez, the country’s transport minister, admitted that an “error” had been made and promised those responsible would be dismissed.

    Renfe announced that its rolling stock manager had been fired along with Adif’s technology inspectorate head.

    The trains must now be redesigned to ensure they can pass safely through tunnels on their intended routes. The first services will not begin until 2026 at the earliest, two years later than expected."
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,027

    Biden will be fine.

    Like Reagan, sunny-ish experience beats gloomy inexperience (DeSantis) or corrupt stupidity (Trump).

    Biden also has a great record, so far.
    Better, perhaps, than any President since Clinton and sheer getting-stuff-done.

    I agree he would ideally need a new VP though.

    This is the Clinton who signed off the repeal of Glass-Steagall, which led to the GFC - that Clinton?
    I’m talking in the round, you walrus.
    Wasn't Clinton primarily just lucky to be President during a benign era?
  • Options
    DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    ohnotnow said:

    Don't think this has been posted : https://www.msn.com/en-gb/travel/news/spain-spends-258m-to-build-trains-too-big-for-its-tunnels/ar-AA17d0zZ

    "Spain spends €258m to build trains too big for its tunnels

    The embarrassing blunder led to a blame game between Renfe, Spain’s national rail operator, and Adif, the track company, while the country’s Left-wing coalition government also came under fire for failing to notice the error.

    Raquel Sanchez, the country’s transport minister, admitted that an “error” had been made and promised those responsible would be dismissed.

    Renfe announced that its rolling stock manager had been fired along with Adif’s technology inspectorate head.

    The trains must now be redesigned to ensure they can pass safely through tunnels on their intended routes. The first services will not begin until 2026 at the earliest, two years later than expected."

    Oh dear. France did the same a few years back: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27497727
  • Options
    sbjme19sbjme19 Posts: 120
    On Anderson, Hands is quite an abrasive character himself. I remember an interview at the time of partygate, very indignant, nothing to see here. Presumably then swapped to Sunak.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,378
    algarkirk said:

    Lucy Frazer, the new SoS at DCMS inherits the gambling review. She is a Cambridge-educated lawyer.

    So she should know whether cattle taken in withernam are replevisible, the history of detinue and whether market overt applies to Bermondsey market after sunset before 1995. Is she interested in racing as well?
    That sounds a bit like a Biden speech.
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,524
    edited February 2023
    Driver said:

    Sunak's appointment of Lee Anderson as Deputy Chair smacks of both poor judgement and desperation. Surely he could have found a less unpleasant and divisive Red Wall MP to represent that end of the grass roots? I don't expect Anderson to last long before causing sufficient offence to be removed.

    Yes, it’s another example of Rishi’s cloth-eared approach to appointments.

    I accept there is a small slice of the general population and a larger slice indeed of membership that likes what Lee Anderson says.

    But I propose that it is smaller than the number of people who think he is absolute arse.
    Which is true, but if the vast majority of the people who think hes an absolute arse would never vote Tory anyway, does it matter?
    I think you'd find that even some Tory voters recognise an absolute arse when they see one, but I could be wrong.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,378

    Biden will be fine.

    Like Reagan, sunny-ish experience beats gloomy inexperience (DeSantis) or corrupt stupidity (Trump).

    Biden also has a great record, so far.
    Better, perhaps, than any President since Clinton and sheer getting-stuff-done.

    I agree he would ideally need a new VP though.

    This is the Clinton who signed off the repeal of Glass-Steagall, which led to the GFC - that Clinton?
    I’m talking in the round, you walrus.
    Wasn't Clinton primarily just lucky to be President during a benign era?
    Yes.
    Biden is vastly superior.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,924

    Lucy Frazer, the new SoS at DCMS inherits the gambling review. She is a Cambridge-educated lawyer.

    Who was President of the Union Society when I ran the ball. So I know her well.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    ...

    Scott_xP said:

    @Savanta_UK: 🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention

    📈19pt Labour Lead

    🌹Lab 46 (-1)
    🌳Con 27 (+1)
    🔶LD 9 (=)
    ➡️Reform 5 (-1)
    🌍Green 4… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622986891917201415

    Paging Rabbit.
    Tories loving that one. Wow. Reform and Labour down whilst they go up, reducing the Labour lead by a full 2%. You know, if they reduced Labour lead by 2% every month to the election - Tory majority territory. This is so 1964 all over again, except the new Tory leader doesn’t have such a silly voice. Clearly all is still to play for.

    Alternatively each poll sample is likely to have little margin of error movements here there, let’s spread out 9 Savanta in a row and see if there is any noticeable movement month on month over that time.
    Anyone have a market for who the biggest Tory ramper would be?

    Last year, would anyone have backed @MoonRabbit over @HYUFD for ToryRamper2023 ??
    We proved last evening that the wiki page averaging has Sunak just over 3% from the lowest averaging for Truss. Even HY surrendered in the end. And over the last few days PB has proved nothing has substantially moved in the polls for about 3 months. Except for sure, Sunak’s personal ratings have started to take a dive, and in his head to head best PM with Starmer (universally acknowledged a rating giving inbuilt advantage to incumbent) Starmer is stretching out a sizeable lead.

    Would they really be in so deep if they had toughed it out with Boris for the full Parliamentary term? He was taking a midterm hammering from the media, but the polling wasn’t stuck anywhere near this crisis level.

    The sack Boris to win the next election by giving someone else a try just just has not worked. Winning the next election is not losing all an eighty seat majority, or somehow clinging to power. It’s hard to see where the swingback for that is going to come from, so the objective now is hope for a hung Parliament and avoid such a reduction in seats coming back to government doesn’t seem such a mountain to climb?
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,129
    Scott_xP said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sunak's appointment of Lee Anderson as Deputy Chair smacks of both poor judgement and desperation. Surely he could have found a less unpleasant and divisive Red Wall MP to represent that end of the grass roots? I don't expect Anderson to last long before causing sufficient offence to be removed.

    That looks a very defensive appointment. Forget about winning, shore up enough of the 'tastier' end of the 2019 Boris/Brexit coalition to avoid a 97 type result.
    It's worse than that. It's not to avoid a defeat at the election, it's to avoid an ERG vote of No Confidence...
    Really? In which case Sunak must be the weakest PM with a big majority there has ever been.
  • Options
    ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 2,910
    Driver said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Don't think this has been posted : https://www.msn.com/en-gb/travel/news/spain-spends-258m-to-build-trains-too-big-for-its-tunnels/ar-AA17d0zZ

    "Spain spends €258m to build trains too big for its tunnels

    The embarrassing blunder led to a blame game between Renfe, Spain’s national rail operator, and Adif, the track company, while the country’s Left-wing coalition government also came under fire for failing to notice the error.

    Raquel Sanchez, the country’s transport minister, admitted that an “error” had been made and promised those responsible would be dismissed.

    Renfe announced that its rolling stock manager had been fired along with Adif’s technology inspectorate head.

    The trains must now be redesigned to ensure they can pass safely through tunnels on their intended routes. The first services will not begin until 2026 at the earliest, two years later than expected."

    Oh dear. France did the same a few years back: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27497727
    Holy cow. Two thousand trains and 15bn euro? You'd really think that's the kind of order you'd double, triple, quadruple check.
  • Options
    sbjme19 said:

    On Anderson, Hands is quite an abrasive character himself. I remember an interview at the time of partygate, very indignant, nothing to see here. Presumably then swapped to Sunak.

    I met Hands several times when he was on the payroll of a bank a few years back. He seemed okay, maybe a bit meh.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,924
    Sandpit said:

    The big question hasn’t changed. How do they get rid of Biden, but also get rid of the totally unsuitable Harris, rather than leave her as the inevitable nominee - especially given the context around race and gender, that dominates Democratic politics?

    Well, it'll be a competitive primary.

    And if she doesn't get the votes, she doesn't get the votes.
  • Options
    algarkirk said:

    Lucy Frazer, the new SoS at DCMS inherits the gambling review. She is a Cambridge-educated lawyer.

    So she should know whether cattle taken in withernam are replevisible, the history of detinue and whether market overt applies to Bermondsey market after sunset before 1995. Is she interested in racing as well?
    Lucy Frazer is MP for the bit of Newmarket that is not Matt Hancock's, so is ex officio interested in racing.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,924

    Sandpit said:

    The big question hasn’t changed. How do they get rid of Biden, but also get rid of the totally unsuitable Harris, rather than leave her as the inevitable nominee - especially given the context around race and gender, that dominates Democratic politics?

    There is a view on the right that Biden is being eased out and that much of the recent news flow around him being as part of that move (the documents scandal only happened because someone with knowledge leaked it to CBS). The rationale goes that the midterms have convinced a fair few in the Democrats that the GOP and particularly Trump pose less of a threat than feared.

    Moreover, their view is that they have decided when it comes to Harris to,
    use a phrase, put the lipstick on the pig and see if it works. Her political history suggests she is quite happy to switch opinions in self-interest. So, have a President Harris for let's say 12 months, with an improving economy, and she may just make it.


    If Biden goes before the Primaries, then Harris is President and I can't see her being challenged.

    But the amount of time for that is diminishing rapidly. Biden would have to resign as POTUS this year. And I think, if he's not standing again, he'll want to run out his term.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,378
    HYUFD said:

    Against a younger candidate Biden's age might be an issue but against what will be a 78 year old Trump in 2024? I doubt it.

    Biden has also proved he can beat Trump unlike any other Democrats

    I have to agree.

    This is probably right, too:
    … It is very difficult to argue other than that the 80 year old is simply too old and frail to contemplate a second presidential campaign and the possibility if he succeeded of serving as president until his late 80s.

    Problem is that Mike consistently said much the same before the last election, as did many others. Biden proved us all wrong then, so it’s going to be pretty hard to dislodge him if he’s determined to run.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,129
    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    The big question hasn’t changed. How do they get rid of Biden, but also get rid of the totally unsuitable Harris, rather than leave her as the inevitable nominee - especially given the context around race and gender, that dominates Democratic politics?

    There is a view on the right that Biden is being eased out and that much of the recent news flow around him being as part of that move (the documents scandal only happened because someone with knowledge leaked it to CBS). The rationale goes that the midterms have convinced a fair few in the Democrats that the GOP and particularly Trump pose less of a threat than feared.

    Moreover, their view is that they have decided when it comes to Harris to,
    use a phrase, put the lipstick on the pig and see if it works. Her political history suggests she is quite happy to switch opinions in self-interest. So, have a President Harris for let's say 12 months, with an improving economy, and she may just make it.


    President Harris is a Trump wet dream. I would make Trump odds on to beat her.

    She is Hillary without the charisma
    He needs to get the GOP nomination before he can beat anybody.
  • Options
    DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    ohnotnow said:

    Driver said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Don't think this has been posted : https://www.msn.com/en-gb/travel/news/spain-spends-258m-to-build-trains-too-big-for-its-tunnels/ar-AA17d0zZ

    "Spain spends €258m to build trains too big for its tunnels

    The embarrassing blunder led to a blame game between Renfe, Spain’s national rail operator, and Adif, the track company, while the country’s Left-wing coalition government also came under fire for failing to notice the error.

    Raquel Sanchez, the country’s transport minister, admitted that an “error” had been made and promised those responsible would be dismissed.

    Renfe announced that its rolling stock manager had been fired along with Adif’s technology inspectorate head.

    The trains must now be redesigned to ensure they can pass safely through tunnels on their intended routes. The first services will not begin until 2026 at the earliest, two years later than expected."

    Oh dear. France did the same a few years back: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27497727
    Holy cow. Two thousand trains and 15bn euro? You'd really think that's the kind of order you'd double, triple, quadruple check.
    I guess the train operator checked the order against the data that the infrastructure owner gave them, trusting the latter was accurate.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,378
    rcs1000 said:

    Lucy Frazer, the new SoS at DCMS inherits the gambling review. She is a Cambridge-educated lawyer.

    Who was President of the Union Society when I ran the ball. So I know her well.
    Doesn’t that suggest you’re better qualified for her new post ?
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,504
    sbjme19 said:

    On Anderson, Hands is quite an abrasive character himself. I remember an interview at the time of partygate, very indignant, nothing to see here. Presumably then swapped to Sunak.

    And apparently some juice on Hands (as it were) to be revealed shortly by a newspaper briefed by Jolyon Maugham. If he’s not just blustering.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,504
    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sunak's appointment of Lee Anderson as Deputy Chair smacks of both poor judgement and desperation. Surely he could have found a less unpleasant and divisive Red Wall MP to represent that end of the grass roots? I don't expect Anderson to last long before causing sufficient offence to be removed.

    That looks a very defensive appointment. Forget about winning, shore up enough of the 'tastier' end of the 2019 Boris/Brexit coalition to avoid a 97 type result.
    Once the new boundaries come in I shall be living in a proper red wall, currently Tory, seat. Not one vote (except his mum's) in the entire of the north of England will hang on the person of an office in the party of which no-one has ever heard.

    I wish I could live in a marginal seat once in my life so I could be a real voter whose opinion mattered.
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,524
    edited February 2023
    I'm less immersed in, and knowledgeable about, USA politics than most on here, but I can't help but notice the overwhelming consensus that Kamala Harris is useless, and this seems to be an unquestionable fact. But I've yet to read a convincing account of quite what makes her so useless. Is this just PB groupthink, or am I missing something? I rather like her, but I'm genuinely open to being enlightened as to why she's so hopeless and why I need to change my view.
  • Options
    DJ41aDJ41a Posts: 174
    edited February 2023
    I watched the whole film in the expectation that Biden would do something spectacular with the ice cream cornet but nothing came. The clip where he says families should be united and support each other doesn't do him any discredit either. So he said "f*ck". Big deal.
    Sandpit said:

    The big question hasn’t changed. How do they get rid of Biden, but also get rid of the totally unsuitable Harris, rather than leave her as the inevitable nominee - especially given the context around race and gender, that dominates Democratic politics?

    Timing, or run with whichever of those two has the better chance even if neither is optimal.

    There are many clips of Trump where he comes across as a complete and utter a*sehole. Biden comes across as kind but doddery.
    Vote for the dotard, or vote for the insane liar?
    houndtang said:

    In a normal world Biden's overt senility and paedophilia would rule him out of any office.

    That comment is foully libellous. But it's so easy to imagine the alt-right side of a Trump campaign running with that kind of thing.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,581
    FF43 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Biden will be fine.

    Like Reagan, sunny-ish experience beats gloomy inexperience (DeSantis) or corrupt stupidity (Trump).

    Biden also has a great record, so far.
    Better, perhaps, than any President since Clinton and sheer getting-stuff-done.

    I agree he would ideally need a new VP though.

    He saved America and the world from Trump2. If he'd done nothing else that puts him right up there for me. But as it is he has done plenty else. At home, he's got a serious macro-economic package through, and so far he's handling a massive foreign & defence policy challenge (Ukraine) with skill, strength, and sensitivity. I'm a fan.
    Agree with this. Not sufficiently recognised - Biden is good at politics.
    He's been doing it for a long, long time.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,811
    DJ41a said:

    I watched the whole film in the expectation that Biden would do something spectacular with the ice cream cornet but nothing came. The clip where he says families should be united and support each other doesn't do him any discredit either. So he said "f*ck". Big deal.


    Sandpit said:

    The big question hasn’t changed. How do they get rid of Biden, but also get rid of the totally unsuitable Harris, rather than leave her as the inevitable nominee - especially given the context around race and gender, that dominates Democratic politics?

    Timing, or run with whichever of those two has the better chance even if neither is optimal.

    There are many clips of Trump where he comes across as a complete and utter a*sehole. Biden comes across as kind but doddery.
    Vote for the dotard, or vote for the insane liar?
    Dotard every time
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,242
    Driver said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Driver said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Don't think this has been posted : https://www.msn.com/en-gb/travel/news/spain-spends-258m-to-build-trains-too-big-for-its-tunnels/ar-AA17d0zZ

    "Spain spends €258m to build trains too big for its tunnels

    The embarrassing blunder led to a blame game between Renfe, Spain’s national rail operator, and Adif, the track company, while the country’s Left-wing coalition government also came under fire for failing to notice the error.

    Raquel Sanchez, the country’s transport minister, admitted that an “error” had been made and promised those responsible would be dismissed.

    Renfe announced that its rolling stock manager had been fired along with Adif’s technology inspectorate head.

    The trains must now be redesigned to ensure they can pass safely through tunnels on their intended routes. The first services will not begin until 2026 at the earliest, two years later than expected."

    Oh dear. France did the same a few years back: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27497727
    Holy cow. Two thousand trains and 15bn euro? You'd really think that's the kind of order you'd double, triple, quadruple check.
    I guess the train operator checked the order against the data that the infrastructure owner gave them, trusting the latter was accurate.
    In the Goode Olde Days, what they did (sometimes, admittedly) was to mock up with wood and tin plate, the maximum dimensions of new rolling stock. Then run it through to see if it got bashed.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,531
    ohnotnow said:

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    "The Whale" film.

    Audience rating 91%
    Critics rating 65%

    https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_whale_2022

    Surely every film should get a better rating from the audience than from critics? The audience is self selecting; those who think it will be a pile of shite don't go to watch it. However, critics are paid to watch it, and can't avoid it however bad they think it will be.
    I suffered through about half of this film based on rave reviews from various critics. I should have trusted the viewing public instead.

    https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/skinamarink

    I watched the Sight and Sound critics poll "best film of all time" the other week.

    https://player.bfi.org.uk/subscription/film/watch-jeanne-dielman-23-quai-du-commerce-1080-bruxelles-1975-online

    And yes, there is a lot of potato peeling in it. Particularly well done in the second act.

    A really interesting film, though builds very slowly.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    He’s Biden his time.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    DJ41a said:

    I watched the whole film in the expectation that Biden would do something spectacular with the ice cream cornet but nothing came. The clip where he says families should be united and support each other doesn't do him any discredit either. So he said "f*ck". Big deal.


    Sandpit said:

    The big question hasn’t changed. How do they get rid of Biden, but also get rid of the totally unsuitable Harris, rather than leave her as the inevitable nominee - especially given the context around race and gender, that dominates Democratic politics?

    Timing, or run with whichever of those two has the better chance even if neither is optimal.

    There are many clips of Trump where he comes across as a complete and utter a*sehole. Biden comes across as kind but doddery.
    Vote for the dotard, or vote for the insane liar?
    houndtang said:

    In a normal world Biden's overt senility and paedophilia would rule him out of any office.

    That comment is foully libellous. But it's so easy to imagine the alt-right side of a Trump campaign running with that kind of thing.
    Another angle is it’s not all about one person, but the teams they build in government and how they deliver. Rather than Trump v Biden as the mental and physical ability of each man, there is a strong and stable government v chaos and unstable governmrnt that struggles to deliver, a call the independent minded who will decide the next US election will make. They sort of set a precedent returning Reagan for a second term, in liking how they were being governed by his administration? That makes it a mountain to climb for any challenger?

    There’s also an angle in how deep does US intelligence, security and Military go are in distrusting, fear and loathing Trump, the investment in Ukraine for example, so if Trump did start to look like a winner they would like, do stuff?
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    Jonathan said:

    He’s Biden his time.

    How far did you joe to think of that one?
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,313
    MaxPB said:

    I’m not sure why Digital was removed wholesale from DCMS.

    Rather, digital MEDIA should have stayed, and digital TECHNOLOGY and INFRA should have moved.

    I’m far from convinced Sunak has a clue.
    These re-orgs don’t especially signal big priorities and cause some months of internal distraction when presumably every week counts for Tory electoral chances.

    Creating a department of energy makes a lot of sense.

    Will write up that report at some point, got busy over the weekend, kids and all that.
    It does, especially with the 'security' bit added, but the net zero bit seems to cancel that out. It's like having a Minister for having cake who also holds the brief for eating cake.
  • Options
    Highest % to say No since Sunak became PM.

    Do voters in the Red Wall believe the Government is currently taking the right measures to address the cost-of-living crisis? (5 February)

    No 70% (+7)
    Yes 18% (-4)
    Don't know 13% (-2)

    Changes +/- 23 January


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1623018941109895171
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943

    ...

    Scott_xP said:

    @Savanta_UK: 🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention

    📈19pt Labour Lead

    🌹Lab 46 (-1)
    🌳Con 27 (+1)
    🔶LD 9 (=)
    ➡️Reform 5 (-1)
    🌍Green 4… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622986891917201415

    Paging Rabbit.
    Tories loving that one. Wow. Reform and Labour down whilst they go up, reducing the Labour lead by a full 2%. You know, if they reduced Labour lead by 2% every month to the election - Tory majority territory. This is so 1964 all over again, except the new Tory leader doesn’t have such a silly voice. Clearly all is still to play for.

    Alternatively each poll sample is likely to have little margin of error movements here there, let’s spread out 9 Savanta in a row and see if there is any noticeable movement month on month over that time.
    Anyone have a market for who the biggest Tory ramper would be?

    Last year, would anyone have backed @MoonRabbit over @HYUFD for ToryRamper2023 ??
    We proved last evening that the wiki page averaging has Sunak just over 3% from the lowest averaging for Truss. Even HY surrendered in the end. And over the last few days PB has proved nothing has substantially moved in the polls for about 3 months. Except for sure, Sunak’s personal ratings have started to take a dive, and in his head to head best PM with Starmer (universally acknowledged a rating giving inbuilt advantage to incumbent) Starmer is stretching out a sizeable lead.

    Would they really be in so deep if they had toughed it out with Boris for the full Parliamentary term? He was taking a midterm hammering from the media, but the polling wasn’t stuck anywhere near this crisis level.

    The sack Boris to win the next election by giving someone else a try just just has not worked. Winning the next election is not losing all an eighty seat majority, or somehow clinging to power. It’s hard to see where the swingback for that is going to come from, so the objective now is hope for a hung Parliament and avoid such a reduction in seats coming back to government doesn’t seem such a mountain to climb?
    No I didn't. As I made clear last night you included polls from after Truss resigned for Truss when Sunak was in effect PM elect and polls before the markets crashed for Truss too
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,313
    FF43 said:

    IanB2 said:

    He has however been clever enough to lay cover for his senility earlier during his career with plenty of gaffes at a younger age.

    Joe Biden is definitely old, but is a remarkably effective president for someone supposedly senile. I would say he's the most effective president since Ronald Reagan in getting his agenda through and lining up the forces to that end.
    That's a rather silly argument. If the local fish and chip shop owner kept burning himself and setting the place on fire due to senility, you wouldn't say 'Hmmm, he seems to run a very profitable chip shop for one so senile!' - either he is senile, and would be better placed elsewhere, or he isn't. If he is, responsibility for the 'effectiveness' of his administration clearly lies elsewhere.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,313

    FF43 said:

    IanB2 said:

    He has however been clever enough to lay cover for his senility earlier during his career with plenty of gaffes at a younger age.

    Joe Biden is definitely old, but is a remarkably effective president for someone supposedly senile. I would say he's the most effective president since Ronald Reagan in getting his agenda through and lining up the forces to that end.
    That's a rather silly argument. If the local fish and chip shop owner kept burning himself and setting the place on fire due to senility, you wouldn't say 'Hmmm, he seems to run a very profitable chip shop for one so senile!' - either he is senile, and would be better placed elsewhere, or he isn't. If he is, responsibility for the 'effectiveness' of his administration clearly lies elsewhere.
    And yes, I am starving and now want chips for dinner.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,572
    edited February 2023
    Foxy said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    "The Whale" film.

    Audience rating 91%
    Critics rating 65%

    https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_whale_2022

    Surely every film should get a better rating from the audience than from critics? The audience is self selecting; those who think it will be a pile of shite don't go to watch it. However, critics are paid to watch it, and can't avoid it however bad they think it will be.
    I suffered through about half of this film based on rave reviews from various critics. I should have trusted the viewing public instead.

    https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/skinamarink

    I watched the Sight and Sound critics poll "best film of all time" the other week.

    https://player.bfi.org.uk/subscription/film/watch-jeanne-dielman-23-quai-du-commerce-1080-bruxelles-1975-online

    And yes, there is a lot of potato peeling in it. Particularly well done in the second act.

    A really interesting film, though builds very slowly.
    The fact that Citizen Kane comes in the top five of every critic's 'best film of all time' list, tells you all you need to know about the rank stupidity of film critics.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,378

    FF43 said:

    IanB2 said:

    He has however been clever enough to lay cover for his senility earlier during his career with plenty of gaffes at a younger age.

    Joe Biden is definitely old, but is a remarkably effective president for someone supposedly senile. I would say he's the most effective president since Ronald Reagan in getting his agenda through and lining up the forces to that end.
    That's a rather silly argument. If the local fish and chip shop owner kept burning himself and setting the place on fire due to senility, you wouldn't say 'Hmmm, he seems to run a very profitable chip shop for one so senile!' - either he is senile, and would be better placed elsewhere, or he isn't. If he is, responsibility for the 'effectiveness' of his administration clearly lies elsewhere.
    Why is it "silly argument" to say that a remarkably effective President on any analysis... is a remarkably effective President ?

    You analogy is very silly.
  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    Lucy Frazer, the new SoS at DCMS inherits the gambling review. She is a Cambridge-educated lawyer.

    Latest in a long line, of Cambridge-educated lawyers who understand nothing about gambling?
    This is a government of Cambridge educated lawyers.

    Braverman, Raab*, Barclay, Dowden, Frazer, and Jenrick.

    *Originally went to the dump then realised he needed to go the best.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,916
    edited February 2023

    Driver said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Driver said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Don't think this has been posted : https://www.msn.com/en-gb/travel/news/spain-spends-258m-to-build-trains-too-big-for-its-tunnels/ar-AA17d0zZ

    "Spain spends €258m to build trains too big for its tunnels

    The embarrassing blunder led to a blame game between Renfe, Spain’s national rail operator, and Adif, the track company, while the country’s Left-wing coalition government also came under fire for failing to notice the error.

    Raquel Sanchez, the country’s transport minister, admitted that an “error” had been made and promised those responsible would be dismissed.

    Renfe announced that its rolling stock manager had been fired along with Adif’s technology inspectorate head.

    The trains must now be redesigned to ensure they can pass safely through tunnels on their intended routes. The first services will not begin until 2026 at the earliest, two years later than expected."

    Oh dear. France did the same a few years back: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27497727
    Holy cow. Two thousand trains and 15bn euro? You'd really think that's the kind of order you'd double, triple, quadruple check.
    I guess the train operator checked the order against the data that the infrastructure owner gave them, trusting the latter was accurate.
    In the Goode Olde Days, what they did (sometimes, admittedly) was to mock up with wood and tin plate, the maximum dimensions of new rolling stock. Then run it through to see if it got bashed.
    Did they? I'm not aware of a case where they did that (in the UK at least).

    At one level, they had (and I've used one), a permanent way trolley would be run through structures, with a low wooden structure to pick up widths (as platform distances are a killer). Nowadays, with unusual rolling stock, they do a proving run.

    Goods depots (as was pre 1970) used to have a loading gauge, to check everything loaded was within gauge.

    But I have never, ever, seen a picture of a mock-up of a full loading gauge run up and down the line. And I've seen pictures of wooden huts built on the front of steam locos, so that engineers could measure smokebox pressures...

    The problem is one of dynamics. A trolley containing a wooded and tin-plate structure being run through at 10MPH exhibits very different behaviour to one being run through at 60 MPH. They sway, and in a way that is quite hard to model. Running one through can be the best way - especially with modern 'mind the gap' concerns with accessibility.

    Although in this discussion, it should be remembered that Spain recently built submarines that could sink very well, but not surface:
    https://www.military.com/military-life/how-misplaced-decimal-point-nearly-took-down-spains-newest-submarines.html

    And BTW, this is a brilliant site - if you can stand the Web 1.0 formatting:
    http://www.traintesting.com/
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    "Racheed Sunak"

    Keeping up with UK Prime Ministers would be challenging for someone half his age
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,572
    edited February 2023
    HYUFD said:

    ...

    Scott_xP said:

    @Savanta_UK: 🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention

    📈19pt Labour Lead

    🌹Lab 46 (-1)
    🌳Con 27 (+1)
    🔶LD 9 (=)
    ➡️Reform 5 (-1)
    🌍Green 4… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622986891917201415

    Paging Rabbit.
    Tories loving that one. Wow. Reform and Labour down whilst they go up, reducing the Labour lead by a full 2%. You know, if they reduced Labour lead by 2% every month to the election - Tory majority territory. This is so 1964 all over again, except the new Tory leader doesn’t have such a silly voice. Clearly all is still to play for.

    Alternatively each poll sample is likely to have little margin of error movements here there, let’s spread out 9 Savanta in a row and see if there is any noticeable movement month on month over that time.
    Anyone have a market for who the biggest Tory ramper would be?

    Last year, would anyone have backed @MoonRabbit over @HYUFD for ToryRamper2023 ??
    We proved last evening that the wiki page averaging has Sunak just over 3% from the lowest averaging for Truss. Even HY surrendered in the end. And over the last few days PB has proved nothing has substantially moved in the polls for about 3 months. Except for sure, Sunak’s personal ratings have started to take a dive, and in his head to head best PM with Starmer (universally acknowledged a rating giving inbuilt advantage to incumbent) Starmer is stretching out a sizeable lead.

    Would they really be in so deep if they had toughed it out with Boris for the full Parliamentary term? He was taking a midterm hammering from the media, but the polling wasn’t stuck anywhere near this crisis level.

    The sack Boris to win the next election by giving someone else a try just just has not worked. Winning the next election is not losing all an eighty seat majority, or somehow clinging to power. It’s hard to see where the swingback for that is going to come from, so the objective now is hope for a hung Parliament and avoid such a reduction in seats coming back to government doesn’t seem such a mountain to climb?
    No I didn't. As I made clear last night you included polls from after Truss resigned for Truss when Sunak was in effect PM elect and polls before the markets crashed for Truss too
    Absolutely. As you made clear last night, Sunak has improved the Tories by an average of about 5%, taking into a account all the Truss period polls where they averaged 5% less than recent Sunak ones.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,313
    Nigelb said:

    FF43 said:

    IanB2 said:

    He has however been clever enough to lay cover for his senility earlier during his career with plenty of gaffes at a younger age.

    Joe Biden is definitely old, but is a remarkably effective president for someone supposedly senile. I would say he's the most effective president since Ronald Reagan in getting his agenda through and lining up the forces to that end.
    That's a rather silly argument. If the local fish and chip shop owner kept burning himself and setting the place on fire due to senility, you wouldn't say 'Hmmm, he seems to run a very profitable chip shop for one so senile!' - either he is senile, and would be better placed elsewhere, or he isn't. If he is, responsibility for the 'effectiveness' of his administration clearly lies elsewhere.
    Why is it "silly argument" to say that a remarkably effective President on any analysis... is a remarkably effective President ?

    You analogy is very silly.
    I took FF's meaning to be using the supposed effectiveness of Joe Biden's administration as evidence against his supposed senility.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,378
    edited February 2023

    Sandpit said:

    Lucy Frazer, the new SoS at DCMS inherits the gambling review. She is a Cambridge-educated lawyer.

    Latest in a long line, of Cambridge-educated lawyers who understand nothing about gambling?
    This is a government of Cambridge educated lawyers.

    Braverman, Raab*, Barclay, Dowden, Frazer, and Jenrick.

    *Originally went to the dump then realised he needed to go the best.
    I'm seeing you in a less flattering light, all of a sudden.

    Although you appear to have risen above the disadvantage of your education in a way they didn't.
  • Options
    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    rcs1000 said:

    Lucy Frazer, the new SoS at DCMS inherits the gambling review. She is a Cambridge-educated lawyer.

    Who was President of the Union Society when I ran the ball. So I know her well.
    People you have previously name-dropped on pb.com from your time in Trinity include Kwasi Kwarteng (the most disastrous CofE ever) & Sanjeev Gupta (as wiki delicately puts it, "under scrutiny" regarding the collapse of Greensill Capital).

    I fear for the horror that will now inevitably befall Lucy Frazer.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,572

    Sandpit said:

    Lucy Frazer, the new SoS at DCMS inherits the gambling review. She is a Cambridge-educated lawyer.

    Latest in a long line, of Cambridge-educated lawyers who understand nothing about gambling?
    This is a government of Cambridge educated lawyers.

    Braverman, Raab*, Barclay, Dowden, Frazer, and Jenrick.

    *Originally went to the dump then realised he needed to go the best.
    One would think you'd be keeping quiet about that.
  • Options
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Lucy Frazer, the new SoS at DCMS inherits the gambling review. She is a Cambridge-educated lawyer.

    Latest in a long line, of Cambridge-educated lawyers who understand nothing about gambling?
    This is a government of Cambridge educated lawyers.

    Braverman, Raab*, Barclay, Dowden, Frazer, and Jenrick.

    *Originally went to the dump then realised he needed to go the best.
    I'm seeing you in a less flattering light, all of a sudden.

    Although you appear to have risen above the disadvantage of your education in a way they didn't.
    As much as I love politics, I never had any interest in having a political career, the despite the best efforts of some.
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,524

    Sandpit said:

    Lucy Frazer, the new SoS at DCMS inherits the gambling review. She is a Cambridge-educated lawyer.

    Latest in a long line, of Cambridge-educated lawyers who understand nothing about gambling?
    This is a government of Cambridge educated lawyers.

    Braverman, Raab*, Barclay, Dowden, Frazer, and Jenrick.

    *Originally went to the dump then realised he needed to go the best.
    That's an incredibly distinguished list of uselessness.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,129
    FF43 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Biden will be fine.

    Like Reagan, sunny-ish experience beats gloomy inexperience (DeSantis) or corrupt stupidity (Trump).

    Biden also has a great record, so far.
    Better, perhaps, than any President since Clinton and sheer getting-stuff-done.

    I agree he would ideally need a new VP though.

    He saved America and the world from Trump2. If he'd done nothing else that puts him right up there for me. But as it is he has done plenty else. At home, he's got a serious macro-economic package through, and so far he's handling a massive foreign & defence policy challenge (Ukraine) with skill, strength, and sensitivity. I'm a fan.
    Agree with this. Not sufficiently recognised - Biden is good at politics.
    Yes and re the suggestion he stands down to give Harris some Prez time to help her win WH24, no I don't see any prospect of this unless there truly is a genuine serious medical issue. Which I see little evidence of. To me he looks and acts his age, none of this new fangled, delusional "80 is the new 55" nonsense. It's no more or less than that imo.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,645
    Go for it Joe!
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,692

    FF43 said:

    IanB2 said:

    He has however been clever enough to lay cover for his senility earlier during his career with plenty of gaffes at a younger age.

    Joe Biden is definitely old, but is a remarkably effective president for someone supposedly senile. I would say he's the most effective president since Ronald Reagan in getting his agenda through and lining up the forces to that end.
    That's a rather silly argument. If the local fish and chip shop owner kept burning himself and setting the place on fire due to senility, you wouldn't say 'Hmmm, he seems to run a very profitable chip shop for one so senile!' - either he is senile, and would be better placed elsewhere, or he isn't. If he is, responsibility for the 'effectiveness' of his administration clearly lies elsewhere.
    It's a bit more interesting than that. Reagan definitely was senile, but he completely transformed American politics from a liberal consensus to a conservative one. Konrad Adenauer who I assess to be the greatest post-War leader edged into senility during his long span in office. It seems there can be a period where you can achieve great things before you are too far gone.

    You're wrong on your final point. Biden is very hands-on. The effectiveness comes from him, not competent underlings.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,828
    Early evening all :)

    Perhaps President Biden ought, if challenged about his age, adopt the same attitude as then-President Reagan did when challenged by Walter Mondale in 1984.

    Many of the arguments being used about Biden now were used against Reagan then and there's a general concensus Reagan's eight years were among the most successful in recent American history.

    Redfield & Wilton has its latest round of Red Wall polling - last evening's UK-wide poll had a swing of 19.5% in England. Tonight's Red Wall has a swing of 16% from Conservative to labour so that begs the question as to whether the Conservatives are actually doing worse in some of their core areas then the national UNS would suggest.

    The 2019 Conservative vote splits 51% Conservative, 18% Labour and 17% Don't Know which is a little better than last night's UK-wide numbers.
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    TimSTimS Posts: 9,504
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    IanB2 said:

    He has however been clever enough to lay cover for his senility earlier during his career with plenty of gaffes at a younger age.

    Joe Biden is definitely old, but is a remarkably effective president for someone supposedly senile. I would say he's the most effective president since Ronald Reagan in getting his agenda through and lining up the forces to that end.
    That's a rather silly argument. If the local fish and chip shop owner kept burning himself and setting the place on fire due to senility, you wouldn't say 'Hmmm, he seems to run a very profitable chip shop for one so senile!' - either he is senile, and would be better placed elsewhere, or he isn't. If he is, responsibility for the 'effectiveness' of his administration clearly lies elsewhere.
    It's a bit more interesting than that. Reagan definitely was senile, but he completely transformed American politics from a liberal consensus to a conservative one. Konrad Adenauer who I assess to be the greatest post-War leader edged into senility during his long span in office. It seems there can be a period where you can achieve great things before you are too far gone.

    You're wrong on your final point. Biden is very hands-on. The effectiveness comes from him, not competent underlings.
    I suppose the difference with the chip shop analogy, so far at least, is that he’s not burnt anywhere down.

    Trying to think whether we’ve ever had a cabinet minister who was senile. Not that I can think of. They tend to be a bit younger in the UK.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,129

    Foxy said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    "The Whale" film.

    Audience rating 91%
    Critics rating 65%

    https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_whale_2022

    Surely every film should get a better rating from the audience than from critics? The audience is self selecting; those who think it will be a pile of shite don't go to watch it. However, critics are paid to watch it, and can't avoid it however bad they think it will be.
    I suffered through about half of this film based on rave reviews from various critics. I should have trusted the viewing public instead.

    https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/skinamarink

    I watched the Sight and Sound critics poll "best film of all time" the other week.

    https://player.bfi.org.uk/subscription/film/watch-jeanne-dielman-23-quai-du-commerce-1080-bruxelles-1975-online

    And yes, there is a lot of potato peeling in it. Particularly well done in the second act.

    A really interesting film, though builds very slowly.
    The fact that Citizen Kane comes in the top five of every critic's 'best film of all time' list, tells you all you need to know about the rank stupidity of film critics.
    Thing is, if you adjust for age - since films like most everything else are better now than they used to be - then CK really does belong in that top 5.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,104
    Since Trump escaped impeachment I've thought that the most likely scenario is that Trump is the Republican nominee for 2024, and consequently Biden becomes irreplaceable as the Democrat nominee as, not only the incumbent, but also the only politician proven to have beaten Trump.

    If the Democrats force Biden to stand aside then Trump will most likely win a second term. Harris will lose to him, as will Mayor Pete. Who else is there?
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,129
    TimS said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    IanB2 said:

    He has however been clever enough to lay cover for his senility earlier during his career with plenty of gaffes at a younger age.

    Joe Biden is definitely old, but is a remarkably effective president for someone supposedly senile. I would say he's the most effective president since Ronald Reagan in getting his agenda through and lining up the forces to that end.
    That's a rather silly argument. If the local fish and chip shop owner kept burning himself and setting the place on fire due to senility, you wouldn't say 'Hmmm, he seems to run a very profitable chip shop for one so senile!' - either he is senile, and would be better placed elsewhere, or he isn't. If he is, responsibility for the 'effectiveness' of his administration clearly lies elsewhere.
    It's a bit more interesting than that. Reagan definitely was senile, but he completely transformed American politics from a liberal consensus to a conservative one. Konrad Adenauer who I assess to be the greatest post-War leader edged into senility during his long span in office. It seems there can be a period where you can achieve great things before you are too far gone.

    You're wrong on your final point. Biden is very hands-on. The effectiveness comes from him, not competent underlings.
    I suppose the difference with the chip shop analogy, so far at least, is that he’s not burnt anywhere down.

    Trying to think whether we’ve ever had a cabinet minister who was senile. Not that I can think of. They tend to be a bit younger in the UK.
    Wilson resigned when he felt it coming, didn't he.
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    kjhkjh Posts: 10,573
    edited February 2023
    My dad died yesterday peacefully. 96 years old so a good innings. Excellent care by the NHS since Christmas Day when he collapsed with covid.

    Having been critical of @hyufd re his views on inheritance I am almost certainly going to do what he suggests. I am going to inherit half of a small semi. I can't spend the money I currently have before I die so will probably pass my inheritance to my children. Sigh.
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