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Truss would stand a good chance of winning another member’s ballot – politicalbetting.com
Truss would stand a good chance of winning another member’s ballot – politicalbetting.com
One of the great strengths that Liz Trust has is her popularity with the Conservative membership. This was seen in the months and years leading up to the July-September 2022 leadership election when she regularly topped the monthly Conservative Home survey of the most favoured Cabinet ministers.
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Has there been any polling showing that she is still popular? Does she get into the ConHome polls now she has no cabinet position - were they just ratings of the cabinet?
ETA: Anyway, they'd (the membership, not the MPs, thankfully - I think) go for Johnson, given the chance, wouldn't they?
That doesn't seem to me to be particular evidence of a unique popular appeal among the membership, and I would have thought there would be at least some erstwhile supporters discouraged by the inept and chaotic way that she failed to implement her plans.
* lossless, so this is my archive copy which I can transcode to whatever is the fashionable lossless version of the time for portable devices - mostly still MP3 or Theora
** which it sometimes is, even though someone has to make and ship a physical thing and then I have to rip it
In all seriousness, I don't want them losing points this season (I don't think they would anyway as its far too short notice).
Bit like Juventus in Serie A (small bet on Napoli).
So I have calculated the weekly average for those polling companies only from November onwards. There is a break for Christmas and the New Year, otherwise it is complete.
Not much movement.
Tory MPs would certainly back Sunak over her as they did in the leadership election last summer even before her disastrous premiership, so she has no chance of becoming PM and Tory leader again before the next general election.
Nor would she likely become Leader of the Opposition either. Most members polls last summer had Badenoch or Mordaunt beating Truss with members for instance. Someone like Steve Barclay would also likely now get more Tory MPs support than her too
It’s indeed a solution looking for a problem. Those pushing it either have a vested interest in the system itself, or are authoritarians in love with the control it would give the operators. Central digital currency was one of the major talking points at the recent WEF summit.
The WEF white paper from a couple of years ago. https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Digital_Currency_Governance_Consortium_White_Paper_Series_2021.pdf
I tried to find a news article that was anything other than heavily biased against the concept, but struggled!
This is as close as I got, with actual quotes from the Mastercard CEO, who said that the idea is to eliminate SWIFT and ‘regular’ banking within five years.
https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/mastercard-ceo-tells-world-economic-forum-digital-currencies-may-replace-global-banking-system/
And former Tory leadership contender Kemi Badenoch is to be moved from international trade secretary to business secretary, taking over part of the role Mr Shapps leaves vacant.
https://news.sky.com/story/cabinet-reshuffle-greg-hands-replaces-zahawi-as-conservative-party-chairman-as-sunaks-first-reshuffle-begins-12805147
(* Which is another way of cheating the financial regulations.)
The USP of Twitter was (and still is) basically for the user to be able to curate their own user experience; that's what makes it so useful a tool. They've made that considerably more hit and miss.
Worth a few quid on the next leader market.
As it's a first offence, I think they should have one point deducted from the 2011-12 season. ;-)
Truss has had her go at the leadership but blew it
2 points for the second offence,
4 points for the third offence,
and so on…
(Yes, I know, it’s a variation on the old ‘grains of rice on a chessboard’ problem - but with a 10x10 chessboard!).
Genuine question. I am reading this debate with some bewilderment
The big change in Twitter that I can see is that there is now a choice of two tweet streams. One is more tik tok in nature. “For you”. It is tweets that the algos reckon you might find interesting based on your prior engagement (and sometimes I do find them interesting)
The other stream is “following” which is Twitter as it always was. Your can toggle between the two. Takes half a second
There are a few people who have been allowed back on Twitter who shouldn’t have ever been banned, on grounds of free speech alone
That’s it. That is the big change so far. Or am I blind or deluded?!
The discussion of a technology vs brute aggression in war is an old one. A sub theme of Well's "The Land Ironclads" is the defeat of the rugged outdoorsmen by the effete townies in their war machines...
And he was much too good a journalist to spoil his contrast by remarking that the half-dozen comparatively slender young men in blue pajamas who were standing about their victorious land ironclad, drinking coffee and eating biscuits, had also in their eyes and carriage something not altogether degraded below the level of a man.
The French discussion of red trousers before WWI is darkly comic, now.
It's a popular fallacy that brutal behaviour, discipline etc makes better soldiers. In real life that doesn't seem to be the case.
One thing the UK would have going for it over Ukraine (and Russia) in that situation is that geography makes it a lot harder to leave to avoid mobilisation. 19% of the Ukrainian population (~8m) has just left. 6m going west and 2m going to Russia. They lost a lot of potential conscriptees for the meat grinder that way.
Personally, my reasons are more Machivellean. Sunak might lose but have (say) 250 or 300 MPs. With Truss I would hope for less than 200 Tories to survive.
The more nutters the electorate can dispose of, the better it will be for the country.
But your initial paragraph is interesting for another reason: despite those deep cultural links (basically formed by previous invasions), the vast majority of Ukrainians don't want to be Russian. They may be 40% ethnically, linguistically and culturally Russian, but it's clear that the vast majority of those don't want to *be* Russian.
Remember, the big Z himself is a Russian speaker.
The conflicts since 2014 have actually created a Ukrainian identity.
Those of using using Twitter mostly to listen to others aren't the customer; we're the product Musk is trying to monetise.
Reflecting further, it's not that I thought the Russian approach to soldiering per se (the brutal behaviour and the disciple) would yield results, it was the sense of purpose. To strip away any sort of nuance for a moment, they expect their military to win wars, we expect our military to follow rules and 21st century conventions. My assumption was that we are disadvantaging our own side in this.
I don't think, for example, that brutal behaviour necessarily helps you win wars. But things we do - like preventing white men from joining the RAF, for example - would appear to be placing another objective ahead of your ability to carry out war effectively.
But it turns out that the Russians are also placing another objective ahead of their ability to carry out war - that is, enriching middlemen at the expense of the military (clearly this isn't the aim itself but a product of the Russian model of governance.)
It also turns out that the Russians are surprisingly bad at war. Possibly this does stem from the brutality-and-discipline aspect - that is, their soldiers just aren't very motivated. Or possibly it just happens to be that the Russians are making the wrong decisions and in an alternative universe a similarly brutal culture could be more successful.
(More importantly, why reorganise now? Why not 100 days ago?)
Reading various reports on this City are facing extremely serious charges dating back to 2008 right up to now and the Premier League could even demote them
Apparently there is no appeal against the Premier League decision and any penalty is likely to be applied in the season the Premier League's investigation concludes, so it could even be in the 2023 - 24 season
It is said the Premier League are alarmed at the government's proposals for an Independent authority governing all matters football and they have decided now is the time to show their own compliance is robust
It seems Pep will resign if allegations are proven, and it must be a toss up between City and Liverpool supporters as to who are most depressed today
This sort of illustrates the earlier point - we in the west place adhering to a set of 2020s values ahead of doing what works. What would we do in a war situation? I don't know and I hope I never find out.
I just had a look. The most recent tweet is 3 seconds old from someone I follow. Then 15s. Then 40s. Than 2m old. All people that I know that I follow
Either Twitter is uniquely giving me access to Old Twitter or someone here is gravely mistaken. It could be me but I just can’t see it…
You can more or less now default back to your own followed accounts, which seems to work reasonably well at the moment.
But they're still determinedly trying to get users to change to features users don't want, just because that's easier to monetise.
For now it's still usable, but that could still change. It's not a technical problem; it's that Twitter isn't going to change into the kind of ap Musk wants; or at least most if its users would be reluctant to stay committed to such a thing.
I'm on her at 10/1 as next Tory leader.
That’s it. And the For You stream is sometimes rather enlightening, and sometimes not. It is the Tik Tok algo applied to Twitter
I am also (tho this IS more subjective) seeing fewer ads - “promoted tweets”, I think (which is an improvement if this is the case)
Also the cats decided to mark the occasion by leaving a large dead bird on the kitchen floor - along with feathers scattered everywhere - so clearing that up will be my first task of the day. There is no cat flap in the kitchen so they must have killed it outside, dragged it in through the cat flap downstairs and brought it upstairs. It is quite determined and skilful of them. I only wish they could use that skill to bring me a cup of tea in bed or, even, clean the bloody thing up themselves.
The joys of country living, eh!
Is Greg Hands a US citizen?
"If there was to be another ballot, and it’s far from certain that will be the case, it is probably best to assume that she would have similar levels of support."
I just don't see how this is a safe assumption from OGH. It's hard to get away from the fact it was a total disaster when she had her chance, and I cannot see any way that her support wouldn't have eroded significantly. And that's premised on her getting to the members' ballot, which is even more unlikely as MPs are even more aware of what a disaster she was.
Hard to build trust in a organisation that seems to believe that rape* is disciplinary method.
Modern warfare is more about educated individuals making decisions in a framework that is flexible enough to allow them to act upon them.
*Yes, really.
It's been flakey, though (which tbf was never an unusual state of affairs).
Your cats are hardier than ours. They do hunt, but only hunt in the summer. Every day since September they've scurried to the back door to be let out as soon as I've got up only to look at me incredulously when I open the door 'what? why is it so cold? where is the sunshine? where are the moths to play with?' Three feebler cats you will never meet.
The curries are sublime. The food in Bangkok now is possibly the best in the world. The competition is so intense
I really wish this restaurant would expand into london. But they might have to change the name. Because in Thailand everyone casually calls this chain (without malice) “super N-word”. That’s how they pronounce it
For westerners it is quite startling and causes grave awkwardness
To be fair, this is what the police did.
1) He lauds the single market. But with the single exception of FoM between countries at very different levels of development the SM was not the big issue in the Brexit debate. SM as regulatory trade harmonisation with an international arbitration system would never have precipitated Brexit.
2) He ignores the repeated Referendum issues. He ignores the political union aspects. He ignored the non democratic elements. he ignores the creeping politicisation of what began as a big trade association.
So while the rhetoric is great, he actually repeats the problem. On the whole the UK wanted half of what the EU had become (mostly about trade) but not the other half (mostly about politics).
I have gone back to mid september as before then we do not have a consistent weekly polling by those 6 polling companies.
This just about shows the Truss dip.
Complete with the nuttier talking heads on Russian media claiming this was all perfectly normal and totally non-gay....
Monarchy and segregated schools , and pictures of emperor Franz-Joseph on the coinage - they're what make for being good at war. The bosses in Kiev, who run a completely different model from the ones in Moscow and Tbilisi, sure as damned hell know the right regime to look up to and get their weapons from. Or as might be said, "We need the clever Slavs (and other Slavophones) on our side!"
As for what you say is the biasing of recruitment to the RAF against white men, you sound as though you believe that most people are born with a collection of talents that point them towards this kind of job and not that kind of job, and that once you've trained the first x airmen who aren't white men then when you reach the (x+1)th it's like trying to make a silk purse out of a sow's ear.
We'll still have covid sequelae deaths for a while, but they should (hopefully) lift a bit too, as time goes by. The risk period for elevated heart issues/stroke issues seems to be highest over 1 to 2 years, and linked to the severity of the illness, so with reduced severity from widespread immunity (and protection from severe disease doesn't tend to erode like protection from infection), so hopefully those numbers will fall as well.
And at the moment, there's nothing that provides what Twitter does.
But it's not at all hard to imagine how someone might recreate the user-personalised news/information/gossip service, with a similar reach, using an AI.
What people are missing about current AIs is that while they aren't necessarily particularly intelligent or interesting in themselves, they enable all sorts of services. See also the threat to Amazon's retail model.
...Once the decision was taken—I was rather against it—it was important to get on and do something about the new world, because the uncertainty was bound to be burdensome and frustrating. I thought it was absolutely right that the principal Brexiteers were put in charge of the show: Boris Johnson, David Davis and Liam Fox. They, after all, presumably knew what the opportunities were, what needed to be done and what was holding us back, so they were in charge. Well, that did not last long. We had Jacob Rees-Mogg, with his Robespierrean fanaticism, and a whole new government department called Exiting the European Union. Let us not get carried away: the nameplate on the door changed. With Robespierrean fanaticism, he threw himself into the task. There was an uncharacteristic lack of history here, because of course Robespierre followed Louis XIV to the guillotine. Well, it is a more generous and kinder world that we live in today. Four Prime Ministers later, Jacob Rees-Mogg is back on the Back Benches. Dozens of Ministers have lost their jobs. I say to my noble friends on the Front Bench, “Beware: here today, gone tomorrow”. That has an ominous ring for anyone who becomes mired in this Brexit saga.
The essence, of course, is that, for all the empty generalisations, all the promises and all that new world, there was nothing there. This Bill demonstrates beyond peradventure that they did not know what they were doing. Six years on, they did not know what they were doing. They have now actually created a giant question mark over a whole realm of regulations that are the custodian that separates us from the law of the jungle. They are what defines a civilised society. At a time of economic stress, when we need desperately to increase the levels of investment in our economy, what have they provided? A giant question mark for anyone seeking to know whether to spend a penny piece in the United Kingdom economy. I beg noble Lords not to let this legislation leave this place unscathed...
This excellent PB headline is untestable as there isn't going to be one this side of a GE.
After which it is debatable whether the 1922 committee will or will not be able to meet in a telephone box, though the party membership will still be indistinguishable from a box of frogs.
This doesn't sound devastating for Elon and Twitter, TBH
I agree that AI is a threat to Twitter, but then it is a threat to everyone and everything as we know it
For decades aircrew in particular were recruited by looking for a definite type - privately educated hooligans with an excess of self-confidence, an aptitude for team sports and a lack of intellect. Basically, people like me. Of course, the system wasn't perfect and the occasional comprehensively educated intellectual introvert slipped through but they could be shuffled off to the C-130 fleet.
So the senior officers on selection panels tended to be of a particular type looking to recruit 21 year old versions of themselves. Without some active measures this particular niche of the Armed Forces is never going to reflect the composition of the country it is putative defending.
Bwahahahahahahahah
https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20230206-the-companies-backtracking-on-flexible-work
Get back to your desks, wage-slaves
As with Trump, Musk is a divisive figure, and many of the commentators are looking primarily at the personalities rather than the policies.
1. She will never get a chance to stand again - the MPs will see to that.
2. The members wouldn't go near her again with a 20 foot pole.
Sorry to say it, but as someone still inside the Conservative Party, this header is utter - uninformed - fantasy.
In that light the Brexit fiasco is a rebellion against dishonest leadership, and a desire to bring the political process under more democratic control. Even as a Remainer, I could see the logic of that, and although the dishonesty with which the Brexit mob made their case left me coldly furious, they were not wholly wrong.
Some argue that part of the problem is that there is a "Jack´s-as-good-as-his master" attitude across British society. The British do not, in general, admire success except perhaps acting or music. The stereotype of leaders is negative. Britain is not a particularly fair place, and that many think success is not earned, but acquired through cheating. We show remarkable contempt to our public figures across society, from celebrities to business people.
The media has much to answer for too, Paxman´s "who is this lying liar who is lying to me?", attitude was maybe good entertainment, but not a sane way to find a happier and more prosperous country, However, it also goes hand-in-hand with genuine failure: an Oxford PPE degree is a network, not a syllabus, and that goes for bankers or industrialists or journalists as well as politicians.
Tories are in a a leadership vacuum but the palpable lack of vision on both front benches increasingly difficult to ignore. Changing the party of government will change surprisingly little. For example, it wont reverse Brexit, although that is what polls say the majority of voters want.
The problem for the UK is the system of government has delivered so much failure, of which Brexit is only a part, that it is becoming inescapable that major reform is needed. Our local government tier hollowed out by decades of cuts and mostly bankrupt. Our Parliament is woefully undemocratic- the continuing membership of the hereditary Lords in our Parliament is so sad, it is almost funny. A"safe seat" in the Commons is an insult to democracy. The relationship between the central government in Westminster and national governments in Cardiff, Edinburgh and Belfast is rickety, and the failure of local government has destroyed the power of English cities and counties.
Large parts of public administration, from Companies House,the Passport office, to the NHS itself, are in crisis, and the situation is getting worse. We need to talk about these issues. Whether by Royal Commission, Peoples Assemblies or some other public debate, we need to rebuild leadership of, and trust in our system of government.
We need a new national consensus. Who will lead it?
Spoiler Alert: it won´t be Liz Truss.