Of all the half-likely next Tory leaders he’s surely the most likely to lead them way beyond 1997 to an extinction level event. And the thing is you could actually see the membership doing it. I don’t think he’d stand though.
I'd say yes. You can make more than the £6.17 loss with a £79 stake in the next 3 months. (And I think he's got at least that long until the forces could mobilize against him effectively.) And I don't think he goes before the GE. And the next GE may not be until the last possible moment.
Of all the half-likely next Tory leaders he’s surely the most likely to lead them way beyond 1997 to an extinction level event. And the thing is you could actually see the membership doing it. I don’t think he’d stand though.
Talking of millennial death cults... Is Everyone Else Burns worth watching?
Plenty of coverage of the Ipsos numbers (understandably) but the fieldwork was 18-25 January so in essence ancient history. I note a 22 point Labour lead (49-27) among those expressing a preference.
On then to Deltapoll (fieldwork 26-30 January) so more recent and the pollster which recently has given the lowest Labour and highest Conservative vote shares and therefore the smallest gap between the parties. It also consistently finds fewer Reform supporters but the addition of Conservative and Reform (33%) mirrors the numbers in other polls.
Looking at the Deltapoll data tables, Labour ahead by just 10 among men (44-34) and the Conservatives lead by 12 (41-29) among those aged 65 or over. The LDs are at 13% among the over 65s and 12% among the 35-54 age group but 3-4% elsewhere which seems odd.
The Conservative 2019 vote splits 71% Loyal, 14% Labour and 7% Reform but this excludes Don't Knows and the cynic in me might think they've simply shoved all the DKs into the "Loyal" column. We also have Labour only 10 points ahead in London (42-32), but six points ahead in rest of the South (41-35).
If you want this evening's first giggle, look at the Deltapoll Midlands subsample which splits Conservative 42%, Labour 36%, LD 17%. The Scottish sub sample is another to savour so plenty of ifs, buts and maybes around @HYUFD's favourite pollster if I'm being honest.
Redfield & Wilton has the headline gap down to 21 points (49-28). Among those intending to vote, Labour leads 43-24 with DKs on 13%. The Conservatives lead 36-30 among those aged 65 and over. The 2019 Conservative vote splits 52% Conservative, 23% Labour, 14% DK and 7% Reform (that's one of the biggest direct-to-Labour numbers I've seen).
Taking out the DKs, the Labour lead among men is just 10% but among women it's 34%. Among those aged 65 and over, the Conservative lead is 7 points (41-34). The 2019 Conservative vote splits 61% Conservative, 27% Labour.
The area sub samples once again interest - whereas Deltapoll had the SNP ahead of Labour by 43-39, R&W has SNP on 38%, Conservative on 25% and Labour on 21%.
The one I always look at is England - this time Labour leads 52-29 with the LDs on 8%.
In 2019, England voted for the Conservatives 47-34 so that's an 18% swing from Conservative to Labour. That takes us to Wellingborough, the 250th most marginal Conservative seat which would fall on that swing. Consider tactical voting and a seat like Stratford-on-Avon with its near 20,000 majority could be vulnerable if Labour voters switched in sufficient numbers to the LDs.
The R&W numbers would suggest the Conservatives holding their vote in Scotland and dropping 18 points in England - yes, I'm not convinced either.
The criticisms of JK Rowling could all be true (they're not), and the hysteria about her would still be unhinged.
It is possible, is it not, to like and approve of somebody without agreeing with absolutely all their views? I rather like J.K. Rowling, and agree with most of her views. But not all.
I guess there's a modern tendency to damn people because of one particular issue that you don't agree with them on, and ignore all the issues that you do agree about. It's a bit disappointing, as it fuels conflict.
I had an interesting discussion with my daughters on the issue.
The eldest (16) buys into the idea that JKR is completely beyond the pale - she follows the fashion on this one. She doesn't want to read any counter arguments or listen to JKR - because that would make her a bad person.
The younger (13) pointed out that condemning people on the say so of others is exactly what leads to the murderous fatwas that get kicked around.
It’s good to see that at long last the Tories seem to be paying the price for the Brexit they inflicted on us all. They deserve to be annihilated for it.
It’s good to see that at long last the Tories seem to be paying the price for the Brexit they inflicted on us all. They deserve to be annihilated for it.
Regular posters on here will know I’m wrong about most things. However, I did say after the Referendum that the only way to discredit Brexit was to try it, and long term it might have been a blessing to pro-Europeans. I might still end up right about that.
It’s good to see that at long last the Tories seem to be paying the price for the Brexit they inflicted on us all. They deserve to be annihilated for it.
Regular posters on here will know I’m wrong about most things. However, I did say after the Referendum that the only way to discredit Brexit was to try it, and long term it might have been a blessing to pro-Europeans. I might still end up right about that.
Indeed - is there anyone else under whose leadership the Conservatives would be doing demonstrably better? This was the thing with Major - he may not have been everyone's idea of the perfect leader but no one else by that time was going to do any better (whether Portillo, had he successfully challenged Major in 1995, would have done any better against Blair is debatable).
It's all very well suggesting Badenoch and she would have a brief honeymoon as someone new and different but the problems besetting Sunak would become her problems. She might mitigate the defeat - she might not - and given her seat, she would survive all but the most horrendous defeats but imagine if she emerged the other side with just 100 other MPs, would she want the grind of 10 years in Opposition?
Looks like the Tories are well placed to clean up in Lincolnshire. Can Labour ever win again if they can’t make progress in Lincs?
"We'll always have Lincolnshire!"
Lincolnshire’s weird anyway. Where does one group it? It’s not East Anglia, it’s certainly not Yorkshire, and when one says “East Midlands” one thinks of Notts and Derby, not Lincs. It doesn’t really fit anywhere in the vernacular geography of English regions.
Indeed - is there anyone else under whose leadership the Conservatives would be doing demonstrably better? This was the thing with Major - he may not have been everyone's idea of the perfect leader but no one else by that time was going to do any better (whether Portillo, had he successfully challenged Major in 1995, would have done any better against Blair is debatable).
It's all very well suggesting Badenoch and she would have a brief honeymoon as someone new and different but the problems besetting Sunak would become her problems. She might mitigate the defeat - she might not - and given her seat, she would survive all but the most horrendous defeats but imagine if she emerged the other side with just 100 other MPs, would she want the grind of 10 years in Opposition?
It’s a good question. Who, if anyone, could turn around Tory fortunes between now and an election? Nobody, I’d say. The very fact of yet another change of leader would be enough to bring out the Brenda from Bristol in everyone.
Looks like the Tories are well placed to clean up in Lincolnshire. Can Labour ever win again if they can’t make progress in Lincs?
"We'll always have Lincolnshire!"
Lincolnshire’s weird anyway. Where does one group it? It’s not East Anglia, it’s certainly not Yorkshire, and when one says “East Midlands” one thinks of Notts and Derby, not Lincs. It doesn’t really fit anywhere in the vernacular geography of English regions.
Kind of the “A1 region”.
The whole A1 route is a bit of a journey into nowhere, at least until you hit the Vale of York.
Looks like the Tories are well placed to clean up in Lincolnshire. Can Labour ever win again if they can’t make progress in Lincs?
"We'll always have Lincolnshire!"
Lincolnshire’s weird anyway. Where does one group it? It’s not East Anglia, it’s certainly not Yorkshire, and when one says “East Midlands” one thinks of Notts and Derby, not Lincs. It doesn’t really fit anywhere in the vernacular geography of English regions.
Suitable redoubt for the ‘last of the Tories’. Finally, a use has been found for it.
Indeed - is there anyone else under whose leadership the Conservatives would be doing demonstrably better? This was the thing with Major - he may not have been everyone's idea of the perfect leader but no one else by that time was going to do any better (whether Portillo, had he successfully challenged Major in 1995, would have done any better against Blair is debatable).
It's all very well suggesting Badenoch and she would have a brief honeymoon as someone new and different but the problems besetting Sunak would become her problems. She might mitigate the defeat - she might not - and given her seat, she would survive all but the most horrendous defeats but imagine if she emerged the other side with just 100 other MPs, would she want the grind of 10 years in Opposition?
This isn't the same as Major. Major had some grave presentational issues, but the fundamentals of the country were sound, and it was probably fair that Tory MPs hoped Saatchi and Saatchi would come up with a great campaign to keep them in. By contrast, Sunak has an economy in crisis, resulting in plunging quality of life, and he isn't doing anything about it except touting a fall in inflation and other measly economical targets that are baked in. In fact, on energy, his policies have actively damaged domestic supply. Yes, he's rubbish at the presentation too, and doesn't have any political judgement, and yes the crumbling public services don't help, but those aren't the main point.
Kemi would come in and show vigorous action. Yes, she'd be running against her predecessors in the same way that Boris did, but she's different enough that people could buy into that.
Looks like the Tories are well placed to clean up in Lincolnshire. Can Labour ever win again if they can’t make progress in Lincs?
"We'll always have Lincolnshire!"
Lincolnshire’s weird anyway. Where does one group it? It’s not East Anglia, it’s certainly not Yorkshire, and when one says “East Midlands” one thinks of Notts and Derby, not Lincs. It doesn’t really fit anywhere in the vernacular geography of English regions.
Indeed - is there anyone else under whose leadership the Conservatives would be doing demonstrably better? This was the thing with Major - he may not have been everyone's idea of the perfect leader but no one else by that time was going to do any better (whether Portillo, had he successfully challenged Major in 1995, would have done any better against Blair is debatable).
It's all very well suggesting Badenoch and she would have a brief honeymoon as someone new and different but the problems besetting Sunak would become her problems. She might mitigate the defeat - she might not - and given her seat, she would survive all but the most horrendous defeats but imagine if she emerged the other side with just 100 other MPs, would she want the grind of 10 years in Opposition?
It’s a good question. Who, if anyone, could turn around Tory fortunes between now and an election? Nobody, I’d say. The very fact of yet another change of leader would be enough to bring out the Brenda from Bristol in everyone.
After the election, who knows.
I'd say the opposite - anyone. Anyone prepared to use the remaining two years to make people's lives better (rather than tell them all how awful it's going to be) and be seen doing so.
Looks like the Tories are well placed to clean up in Lincolnshire. Can Labour ever win again if they can’t make progress in Lincs?
"We'll always have Lincolnshire!"
Lincolnshire’s weird anyway. Where does one group it? It’s not East Anglia, it’s certainly not Yorkshire, and when one says “East Midlands” one thinks of Notts and Derby, not Lincs. It doesn’t really fit anywhere in the vernacular geography of English regions.
Suitable redoubt for the ‘last of the Tories’. Finally, a use has been found for it.
Indeed - is there anyone else under whose leadership the Conservatives would be doing demonstrably better? This was the thing with Major - he may not have been everyone's idea of the perfect leader but no one else by that time was going to do any better (whether Portillo, had he successfully challenged Major in 1995, would have done any better against Blair is debatable).
It's all very well suggesting Badenoch and she would have a brief honeymoon as someone new and different but the problems besetting Sunak would become her problems. She might mitigate the defeat - she might not - and given her seat, she would survive all but the most horrendous defeats but imagine if she emerged the other side with just 100 other MPs, would she want the grind of 10 years in Opposition?
It’s a good question. Who, if anyone, could turn around Tory fortunes between now and an election? Nobody, I’d say. The very fact of yet another change of leader would be enough to bring out the Brenda from Bristol in everyone.
After the election, who knows.
I'd say the opposite - anyone. Anyone prepared to use the remaining two years to make people's lives better (rather than tell them all how awful it's going to be) and be seen doing so.
Even if a resurrected Benjamin Disraeli were to take on the Tory leadership I think there would be such outrage at them messing around again that the calls for a GE would be impossible to resist.
Subject to the proverbial bus Sunak will lead the Tories into the next election. Another change of leader would be beyond ridiculous. Since it is vanishingly unlikely that the election will be this year Mike's bet looks a solid loser and he should cash out.
Looks like the Tories are well placed to clean up in Lincolnshire. Can Labour ever win again if they can’t make progress in Lincs?
"We'll always have Lincolnshire!"
Lincolnshire’s weird anyway. Where does one group it? It’s not East Anglia, it’s certainly not Yorkshire, and when one says “East Midlands” one thinks of Notts and Derby, not Lincs. It doesn’t really fit anywhere in the vernacular geography of English regions.
Suitable redoubt for the ‘last of the Tories’. Finally, a use has been found for it.
Though quite possibly a hotbed of Refuk too.
There was a stage in my life when I was going up and down the Lincolnshire A1 a lot. The most noticeable thing was the way that all the Little Chefs had been turned into sex shops;
Indeed - is there anyone else under whose leadership the Conservatives would be doing demonstrably better? This was the thing with Major - he may not have been everyone's idea of the perfect leader but no one else by that time was going to do any better (whether Portillo, had he successfully challenged Major in 1995, would have done any better against Blair is debatable).
It's all very well suggesting Badenoch and she would have a brief honeymoon as someone new and different but the problems besetting Sunak would become her problems. She might mitigate the defeat - she might not - and given her seat, she would survive all but the most horrendous defeats but imagine if she emerged the other side with just 100 other MPs, would she want the grind of 10 years in Opposition?
It’s a good question. Who, if anyone, could turn around Tory fortunes between now and an election? Nobody, I’d say. The very fact of yet another change of leader would be enough to bring out the Brenda from Bristol in everyone.
After the election, who knows.
I'd say the opposite - anyone. Anyone prepared to use the remaining two years to make people's lives better (rather than tell them all how awful it's going to be) and be seen doing so.
Even if a resurrected Benjamin Disraeli were to take on the Tory leadership I think there would be such outrage at them messing around again that the calls for a GE would be impossible to resist.
I'm trying to imagine a revived foppish Disraeli taking on the ERG. "What positive clodhoppers you are ! An ounce of elegance, is there between you all ?"
Indeed - is there anyone else under whose leadership the Conservatives would be doing demonstrably better? This was the thing with Major - he may not have been everyone's idea of the perfect leader but no one else by that time was going to do any better (whether Portillo, had he successfully challenged Major in 1995, would have done any better against Blair is debatable).
It's all very well suggesting Badenoch and she would have a brief honeymoon as someone new and different but the problems besetting Sunak would become her problems. She might mitigate the defeat - she might not - and given her seat, she would survive all but the most horrendous defeats but imagine if she emerged the other side with just 100 other MPs, would she want the grind of 10 years in Opposition?
This isn't the same as Major. Major had some grave presentational issues, but the fundamentals of the country were sound, and it was probably fair that Tory MPs hoped Saatchi and Saatchi would come up with a great campaign to keep them in. By contrast, Sunak has an economy in crisis, resulting in plunging quality of life, and he isn't doing anything about it except touting a fall in inflation and other measly economical targets that are baked in. In fact, on energy, his policies have actively damaged domestic supply. Yes, he's rubbish at the presentation too, and doesn't have any political judgement, and yes the crumbling public services don't help, but those aren't the main point.
Kemi would come in and show vigorous action. Yes, she'd be running against her predecessors in the same way that Boris did, but she's different enough that people could buy into that.
I think if we'd not had the Truss-Kwarteng episode, replacing Sunak with Badenoch on a Truss-lite platform might be a shrewd move. The problem is the call for lower taxes doesn't resonate the way it once did because people now understand when taxes are cut it's the wealthy who benefit most and the notion of "fairness" (which is a card Starmer plays skilfully) means a popular tax cut would be to cut taxes for the poorest by most which may not be what those advocating tax cuts as a vehicle for economic growth would support.
Looks like the Tories are well placed to clean up in Lincolnshire. Can Labour ever win again if they can’t make progress in Lincs?
"We'll always have Lincolnshire!"
Lincolnshire’s weird anyway. Where does one group it? It’s not East Anglia, it’s certainly not Yorkshire, and when one says “East Midlands” one thinks of Notts and Derby, not Lincs. It doesn’t really fit anywhere in the vernacular geography of English regions.
West Doggerland
There are a few drive through counties that struggle to belong squarely to a region - Notts, Wiltshire, Beds, Staffs, Northants, Denbighshire etc. But Lincs isn’t even drive-through. It’s sort of off to the right (in both senses)
Indeed - is there anyone else under whose leadership the Conservatives would be doing demonstrably better? This was the thing with Major - he may not have been everyone's idea of the perfect leader but no one else by that time was going to do any better (whether Portillo, had he successfully challenged Major in 1995, would have done any better against Blair is debatable).
It's all very well suggesting Badenoch and she would have a brief honeymoon as someone new and different but the problems besetting Sunak would become her problems. She might mitigate the defeat - she might not - and given her seat, she would survive all but the most horrendous defeats but imagine if she emerged the other side with just 100 other MPs, would she want the grind of 10 years in Opposition?
It’s a good question. Who, if anyone, could turn around Tory fortunes between now and an election? Nobody, I’d say. The very fact of yet another change of leader would be enough to bring out the Brenda from Bristol in everyone.
After the election, who knows.
I'd say the opposite - anyone. Anyone prepared to use the remaining two years to make people's lives better (rather than tell them all how awful it's going to be) and be seen doing so.
Even if a resurrected Benjamin Disraeli were to take on the Tory leadership I think there would be such outrage at them messing around again that the calls for a GE would be impossible to resist.
Meh. There would be strident calls for it from the Labour party, but Tory MPs wouldn't vote for Christmas, and the public would essentially be getting a live preview of the Tory manifesto - it's not often you get to try a Government and return it for a full refund if you don't like it.
Looks like the Tories are well placed to clean up in Lincolnshire. Can Labour ever win again if they can’t make progress in Lincs?
"We'll always have Lincolnshire!"
Lincolnshire’s weird anyway. Where does one group it? It’s not East Anglia, it’s certainly not Yorkshire, and when one says “East Midlands” one thinks of Notts and Derby, not Lincs. It doesn’t really fit anywhere in the vernacular geography of English regions.
Suitable redoubt for the ‘last of the Tories’. Finally, a use has been found for it.
Though quite possibly a hotbed of Refuk too.
There was a stage in my life when I was going up and down the Lincolnshire A1 a lot. The most noticeable thing was the way that all the Little Chefs had been turned into sex shops;
Indeed - is there anyone else under whose leadership the Conservatives would be doing demonstrably better? This was the thing with Major - he may not have been everyone's idea of the perfect leader but no one else by that time was going to do any better (whether Portillo, had he successfully challenged Major in 1995, would have done any better against Blair is debatable).
It's all very well suggesting Badenoch and she would have a brief honeymoon as someone new and different but the problems besetting Sunak would become her problems. She might mitigate the defeat - she might not - and given her seat, she would survive all but the most horrendous defeats but imagine if she emerged the other side with just 100 other MPs, would she want the grind of 10 years in Opposition?
It’s a good question. Who, if anyone, could turn around Tory fortunes between now and an election? Nobody, I’d say. The very fact of yet another change of leader would be enough to bring out the Brenda from Bristol in everyone.
After the election, who knows.
I'd say the opposite - anyone. Anyone prepared to use the remaining two years to make people's lives better (rather than tell them all how awful it's going to be) and be seen doing so.
Even if a resurrected Benjamin Disraeli were to take on the Tory leadership I think there would be such outrage at them messing around again that the calls for a GE would be impossible to resist.
Meh. There would be strident calls for it from the Labour party, but Tory MPs wouldn't vote for Christmas, and the public would essentially be getting a live preview of the Tory manifesto - it's not often you get to try a Government and return it for a full refund if you don't like it.
You’re assuming a strong united Conservative Party squarely behind Badenoch. Which there wouldn’t be. You’d have pissed off Johnsonites unhappy the return of the king had been postponed again, unhappy Sunakites, party stalwarts ashamed at the chaos, traditionalists still reeling from the Truss experiment. There would be more than enough Tory voices calling for an election too. Not going to happen.
Top headlines on the BBC home page include both Firefighters vote for strikes and teachers strikes on as talks break down. It's not getting any better is it?
Subject to the proverbial bus Sunak will lead the Tories into the next election. Another change of leader would be beyond ridiculous. Since it is vanishingly unlikely that the election will be this year Mike's bet looks a solid loser and he should cash out.
It was already ridiculous when they got rid of Truss. I'm not sure doing the done thing should be the Tories' top priority right now.
Looks like the Tories are well placed to clean up in Lincolnshire. Can Labour ever win again if they can’t make progress in Lincs?
"We'll always have Lincolnshire!"
Lincolnshire’s weird anyway. Where does one group it? It’s not East Anglia, it’s certainly not Yorkshire, and when one says “East Midlands” one thinks of Notts and Derby, not Lincs. It doesn’t really fit anywhere in the vernacular geography of English regions.
Suitable redoubt for the ‘last of the Tories’. Finally, a use has been found for it.
Though quite possibly a hotbed of Refuk too.
There was a stage in my life when I was going up and down the Lincolnshire A1 a lot. The most noticeable thing was the way that all the Little Chefs had been turned into sex shops;
Looks like the Tories are well placed to clean up in Lincolnshire. Can Labour ever win again if they can’t make progress in Lincs?
"We'll always have Lincolnshire!"
Lincolnshire’s weird anyway. Where does one group it? It’s not East Anglia, it’s certainly not Yorkshire, and when one says “East Midlands” one thinks of Notts and Derby, not Lincs. It doesn’t really fit anywhere in the vernacular geography of English regions.
Suitable redoubt for the ‘last of the Tories’. Finally, a use has been found for it.
Though quite possibly a hotbed of Refuk too.
There was a stage in my life when I was going up and down the Lincolnshire A1 a lot. The most noticeable thing was the way that all the Little Chefs had been turned into sex shops;
Looks like the Tories are well placed to clean up in Lincolnshire. Can Labour ever win again if they can’t make progress in Lincs?
"We'll always have Lincolnshire!"
Lincolnshire’s weird anyway. Where does one group it? It’s not East Anglia, it’s certainly not Yorkshire, and when one says “East Midlands” one thinks of Notts and Derby, not Lincs. It doesn’t really fit anywhere in the vernacular geography of English regions.
Suitable redoubt for the ‘last of the Tories’. Finally, a use has been found for it.
Though quite possibly a hotbed of Refuk too.
There was a stage in my life when I was going up and down the Lincolnshire A1 a lot. The most noticeable thing was the way that all the Little Chefs had been turned into sex shops;
Subject to the proverbial bus Sunak will lead the Tories into the next election. Another change of leader would be beyond ridiculous. Since it is vanishingly unlikely that the election will be this year Mike's bet looks a solid loser and he should cash out.
It was already ridiculous when they got rid of Truss. I'm not sure doing the done thing should be the Tories' top priority right now.
It's not a great position to have but I think the Tories are just kind of hoping that people forget that the Truss thing ever happened. That might take a while.
Looks like the Tories are well placed to clean up in Lincolnshire. Can Labour ever win again if they can’t make progress in Lincs?
"We'll always have Lincolnshire!"
Lincolnshire’s weird anyway. Where does one group it? It’s not East Anglia, it’s certainly not Yorkshire, and when one says “East Midlands” one thinks of Notts and Derby, not Lincs. It doesn’t really fit anywhere in the vernacular geography of English regions.
Suitable redoubt for the ‘last of the Tories’. Finally, a use has been found for it.
Though quite possibly a hotbed of Refuk too.
There was a stage in my life when I was going up and down the Lincolnshire A1 a lot. The most noticeable thing was the way that all the Little Chefs had been turned into sex shops;
Looks like the Tories are well placed to clean up in Lincolnshire. Can Labour ever win again if they can’t make progress in Lincs?
"We'll always have Lincolnshire!"
Lincolnshire’s weird anyway. Where does one group it? It’s not East Anglia, it’s certainly not Yorkshire, and when one says “East Midlands” one thinks of Notts and Derby, not Lincs. It doesn’t really fit anywhere in the vernacular geography of English regions.
Suitable redoubt for the ‘last of the Tories’. Finally, a use has been found for it.
Though quite possibly a hotbed of Refuk too.
There was a stage in my life when I was going up and down the Lincolnshire A1 a lot. The most noticeable thing was the way that all the Little Chefs had been turned into sex shops;
On then to Deltapoll (fieldwork 26-30 January) so more recent and the pollster which recently has given the lowest Labour and highest Conservative vote shares and therefore the smallest gap between the parties. It also consistently finds fewer Reform supporters but the addition of Conservative and Reform (33%) mirrors the numbers in other polls.
Looking at the Deltapoll data tables, Labour ahead by just 10 among men (44-34) and the Conservatives lead by 12 (41-29) among those aged 65 or over. The LDs are at 13% among the over 65s and 12% among the 35-54 age group but 3-4% elsewhere which seems odd.
Indeed - is there anyone else under whose leadership the Conservatives would be doing demonstrably better? This was the thing with Major - he may not have been everyone's idea of the perfect leader but no one else by that time was going to do any better (whether Portillo, had he successfully challenged Major in 1995, would have done any better against Blair is debatable).
It's all very well suggesting Badenoch and she would have a brief honeymoon as someone new and different but the problems besetting Sunak would become her problems. She might mitigate the defeat - she might not - and given her seat, she would survive all but the most horrendous defeats but imagine if she emerged the other side with just 100 other MPs, would she want the grind of 10 years in Opposition?
It’s a good question. Who, if anyone, could turn around Tory fortunes between now and an election? Nobody, I’d say. The very fact of yet another change of leader would be enough to bring out the Brenda from Bristol in everyone.
After the election, who knows.
I'd say the opposite - anyone. Anyone prepared to use the remaining two years to make people's lives better (rather than tell them all how awful it's going to be) and be seen doing so.
Even if a resurrected Benjamin Disraeli were to take on the Tory leadership I think there would be such outrage at them messing around again that the calls for a GE would be impossible to resist.
Meh. There would be strident calls for it from the Labour party, but Tory MPs wouldn't vote for Christmas, and the public would essentially be getting a live preview of the Tory manifesto - it's not often you get to try a Government and return it for a full refund if you don't like it.
You’re assuming a strong united Conservative Party squarely behind Badenoch. Which there wouldn’t be. You’d have pissed off Johnsonites unhappy the return of the king had been postponed again, unhappy Sunakites, party stalwarts ashamed at the chaos, traditionalists still reeling from the Truss experiment. There would be more than enough Tory voices calling for an election too. Not going to happen.
Boris Johnson would have to have ruled himself out or have been ruled out for anyone else to get in anyway, so no pissed off Johnsonites. I think they would have to give Rishi a job. Foreign Secretary seems suitably grand but inconsequential. I think the party would unite.
Looks like the Tories are well placed to clean up in Lincolnshire. Can Labour ever win again if they can’t make progress in Lincs?
"We'll always have Lincolnshire!"
Lincolnshire’s weird anyway. Where does one group it? It’s not East Anglia, it’s certainly not Yorkshire, and when one says “East Midlands” one thinks of Notts and Derby, not Lincs. It doesn’t really fit anywhere in the vernacular geography of English regions.
Suitable redoubt for the ‘last of the Tories’. Finally, a use has been found for it.
Though quite possibly a hotbed of Refuk too.
There was a stage in my life when I was going up and down the Lincolnshire A1 a lot. The most noticeable thing was the way that all the Little Chefs had been turned into sex shops;
Subject to the proverbial bus Sunak will lead the Tories into the next election. Another change of leader would be beyond ridiculous. Since it is vanishingly unlikely that the election will be this year Mike's bet looks a solid loser and he should cash out.
It was already ridiculous when they got rid of Truss. I'm not sure doing the done thing should be the Tories' top priority right now.
It's not a great position to have but I think the Tories are just kind of hoping that people forget that the Truss thing ever happened. That might take a while.
It's not Truss the electorate need to forget, it's the fact the Tories have delivered this Brexit that will utterly doom the Tories.
Looks like the Tories are well placed to clean up in Lincolnshire. Can Labour ever win again if they can’t make progress in Lincs?
"We'll always have Lincolnshire!"
Lincolnshire’s weird anyway. Where does one group it? It’s not East Anglia, it’s certainly not Yorkshire, and when one says “East Midlands” one thinks of Notts and Derby, not Lincs. It doesn’t really fit anywhere in the vernacular geography of English regions.
West Doggerland
There are a few drive through counties that struggle to belong squarely to a region - Notts, Wiltshire, Beds, Staffs, Northants, Denbighshire etc. But Lincs isn’t even drive-through. It’s sort of off to the right (in both senses)
It's in the East Midlands despite being a coastal county.
Looks like the Tories are well placed to clean up in Lincolnshire. Can Labour ever win again if they can’t make progress in Lincs?
"We'll always have Lincolnshire!"
Lincolnshire’s weird anyway. Where does one group it? It’s not East Anglia, it’s certainly not Yorkshire, and when one says “East Midlands” one thinks of Notts and Derby, not Lincs. It doesn’t really fit anywhere in the vernacular geography of English regions.
Suitable redoubt for the ‘last of the Tories’. Finally, a use has been found for it.
Though quite possibly a hotbed of Refuk too.
There was a stage in my life when I was going up and down the Lincolnshire A1 a lot. The most noticeable thing was the way that all the Little Chefs had been turned into sex shops;
Looks like the Tories are well placed to clean up in Lincolnshire. Can Labour ever win again if they can’t make progress in Lincs?
"We'll always have Lincolnshire!"
Lincolnshire’s weird anyway. Where does one group it? It’s not East Anglia, it’s certainly not Yorkshire, and when one says “East Midlands” one thinks of Notts and Derby, not Lincs. It doesn’t really fit anywhere in the vernacular geography of English regions.
Suitable redoubt for the ‘last of the Tories’. Finally, a use has been found for it.
Though quite possibly a hotbed of Refuk too.
There was a stage in my life when I was going up and down the Lincolnshire A1 a lot. The most noticeable thing was the way that all the Little Chefs had been turned into sex shops;
Subject to the proverbial bus Sunak will lead the Tories into the next election. Another change of leader would be beyond ridiculous. Since it is vanishingly unlikely that the election will be this year Mike's bet looks a solid loser and he should cash out.
It was already ridiculous when they got rid of Truss. I'm not sure doing the done thing should be the Tories' top priority right now.
It's not a great position to have but I think the Tories are just kind of hoping that people forget that the Truss thing ever happened. That might take a while.
It's not Truss the electorate need to forget, it's the fact the Tories have delivered this Brexit that will utterly doom the Tories.
"The only thing worse than failing to deliver a controversial policy is succeeding." Discuss with reference to the Conservative government, 2015-24.
Subject to the proverbial bus Sunak will lead the Tories into the next election. Another change of leader would be beyond ridiculous. Since it is vanishingly unlikely that the election will be this year Mike's bet looks a solid loser and he should cash out.
It was already ridiculous when they got rid of Truss. I'm not sure doing the done thing should be the Tories' top priority right now.
It's not a great position to have but I think the Tories are just kind of hoping that people forget that the Truss thing ever happened. That might take a while.
It's not Truss the electorate need to forget, it's the fact the Tories have delivered this Brexit that will utterly doom the Tories.
Subject to the proverbial bus Sunak will lead the Tories into the next election. Another change of leader would be beyond ridiculous. Since it is vanishingly unlikely that the election will be this year Mike's bet looks a solid loser and he should cash out.
It was already ridiculous when they got rid of Truss. I'm not sure doing the done thing should be the Tories' top priority right now.
It's not a great position to have but I think the Tories are just kind of hoping that people forget that the Truss thing ever happened. That might take a while.
It's not Truss the electorate need to forget, it's the fact the Tories have delivered this Brexit that will utterly doom the Tories.
It's a combination of an unprecedented number of calamities, misfortunes, own goals, corrupt practices, tin earedness, knee jerk unfairness, personal enrichment and preferment, unsuitable leaders and batshit crazy MP's and members. Amongst a lot of other drawbacks.
Looks like the Tories are well placed to clean up in Lincolnshire. Can Labour ever win again if they can’t make progress in Lincs?
"We'll always have Lincolnshire!"
Lincolnshire’s weird anyway. Where does one group it? It’s not East Anglia, it’s certainly not Yorkshire, and when one says “East Midlands” one thinks of Notts and Derby, not Lincs. It doesn’t really fit anywhere in the vernacular geography of English regions.
West Doggerland
There are a few drive through counties that struggle to belong squarely to a region - Notts, Wiltshire, Beds, Staffs, Northants, Denbighshire etc. But Lincs isn’t even drive-through. It’s sort of off to the right (in both senses)
Oddly enough, Gloucestershire is a bit like that.
It's usually classed as West Midlands, but that is dominated by Birmingham, so it sometimes prefers to be classed as South West, but then it doesn't have much in common with Devon and Cornwall. It's close to Oxfordhire, but not culturally.
Good to see the Lib Dems branching out into cloropleth maps - I assume it was their handiwork, colouring the agnostic areas in a lighter shade of the Bregret colour so that the map looks almost entirely green?
Which is daft anyway, because the map is mostly green, without the libdemery.
Ah, nevermind, I was writing crap, wasn't I? It's not a five level scale, that's not a key.
Subject to the proverbial bus Sunak will lead the Tories into the next election. Another change of leader would be beyond ridiculous. Since it is vanishingly unlikely that the election will be this year Mike's bet looks a solid loser and he should cash out.
It was already ridiculous when they got rid of Truss. I'm not sure doing the done thing should be the Tories' top priority right now.
It's not a great position to have but I think the Tories are just kind of hoping that people forget that the Truss thing ever happened. That might take a while.
It's not Truss the electorate need to forget, it's the fact the Tories have delivered this Brexit that will utterly doom the Tories.
Subject to the proverbial bus Sunak will lead the Tories into the next election. Another change of leader would be beyond ridiculous. Since it is vanishingly unlikely that the election will be this year Mike's bet looks a solid loser and he should cash out.
It was already ridiculous when they got rid of Truss. I'm not sure doing the done thing should be the Tories' top priority right now.
It's not a great position to have but I think the Tories are just kind of hoping that people forget that the Truss thing ever happened. That might take a while.
It's not Truss the electorate need to forget, it's the fact the Tories have delivered this Brexit that will utterly doom the Tories.
It's a combination of an unprecedented number of calamities, misfortunes, own goals, corrupt practices, tin earedness, knee jerk unfairness, personal enrichment and preferment, unsuitable leaders and batshit crazy MP's and members. Amongst a lot of other drawbacks.
On then to Deltapoll (fieldwork 26-30 January) so more recent and the pollster which recently has given the lowest Labour and highest Conservative vote shares and therefore the smallest gap between the parties. It also consistently finds fewer Reform supporters but the addition of Conservative and Reform (33%) mirrors the numbers in other polls.
Looking at the Deltapoll data tables, Labour ahead by just 10 among men (44-34) and the Conservatives lead by 12 (41-29) among those aged 65 or over. The LDs are at 13% among the over 65s and 12% among the 35-54 age group but 3-4% elsewhere which seems odd.
Mrs. P and I are thinking about where to move where we can get a lot of house for our money, a rural location, reasonable transport links etc.
Lincolnshire has come up as a possibility but as devout Remainers, I'm not sure we'd fit in. Better cross it off the list.
During the seventeenth century, devout Remainers in Lincolnshire had to hide in haylofts, or risk public flogging and humiliations. Some fled to France or Scotland.
Indeed - is there anyone else under whose leadership the Conservatives would be doing demonstrably better? This was the thing with Major - he may not have been everyone's idea of the perfect leader but no one else by that time was going to do any better (whether Portillo, had he successfully challenged Major in 1995, would have done any better against Blair is debatable).
It's all very well suggesting Badenoch and she would have a brief honeymoon as someone new and different but the problems besetting Sunak would become her problems. She might mitigate the defeat - she might not - and given her seat, she would survive all but the most horrendous defeats but imagine if she emerged the other side with just 100 other MPs, would she want the grind of 10 years in Opposition?
This isn't the same as Major. Major had some grave presentational issues, but the fundamentals of the country were sound, and it was probably fair that Tory MPs hoped Saatchi and Saatchi would come up with a great campaign to keep them in. By contrast, Sunak has an economy in crisis, resulting in plunging quality of life, and he isn't doing anything about it except touting a fall in inflation and other measly economical targets that are baked in. In fact, on energy, his policies have actively damaged domestic supply. Yes, he's rubbish at the presentation too, and doesn't have any political judgement, and yes the crumbling public services don't help, but those aren't the main point.
Kemi would come in and show vigorous action. Yes, she'd be running against her predecessors in the same way that Boris did, but she's different enough that people could buy into that.
Kemi would make no difference. In 1978 John West tinned salmon was discovered to carry botulism. Several people died and John West products-particularly tinned salmon- became avoided like the plague. Literally. The only viable alternative was Princess whose market share boomed. John West could have replaced their board and employed the best MD in the world but it would have made no difference. The brand was dead in the water and it stayed that way for years.
Mrs. P and I are thinking about where to move where we can get a lot of house for our money, a rural location, reasonable transport links etc.
Lincolnshire has come up as a possibility but as devout Remainers, I'm not sure we'd fit in. Better cross it off the list.
During the seventeenth century, devout Remainers in Lincolnshire had to hide in haylofts, or risk public flogging and humiliations. Some fled to France or Scotland.
We could perhaps hide in the en-suite (must have a bath as well as a shower, underfloor heating preferred....)
Stuart Dickson said: "Ipsos: 1% of respondents say that Prince Andrew is their favourite royal.
Surely taking the piss?"
Only 1 percent? Count yourself lucky. In my experience, up to 5 percent will say almost anything in US polls. And I shudder to think how many believe in astrology. (Credit where due: I have many criticisms to make of the New York Times, but I appaaud the fact they do not have an astrology column -- though I am sure some their people believe in astorlogy.)
Indeed - is there anyone else under whose leadership the Conservatives would be doing demonstrably better? This was the thing with Major - he may not have been everyone's idea of the perfect leader but no one else by that time was going to do any better (whether Portillo, had he successfully challenged Major in 1995, would have done any better against Blair is debatable).
It's all very well suggesting Badenoch and she would have a brief honeymoon as someone new and different but the problems besetting Sunak would become her problems. She might mitigate the defeat - she might not - and given her seat, she would survive all but the most horrendous defeats but imagine if she emerged the other side with just 100 other MPs, would she want the grind of 10 years in Opposition?
This isn't the same as Major. Major had some grave presentational issues, but the fundamentals of the country were sound, and it was probably fair that Tory MPs hoped Saatchi and Saatchi would come up with a great campaign to keep them in. By contrast, Sunak has an economy in crisis, resulting in plunging quality of life, and he isn't doing anything about it except touting a fall in inflation and other measly economical targets that are baked in. In fact, on energy, his policies have actively damaged domestic supply. Yes, he's rubbish at the presentation too, and doesn't have any political judgement, and yes the crumbling public services don't help, but those aren't the main point.
Kemi would come in and show vigorous action. Yes, she'd be running against her predecessors in the same way that Boris did, but she's different enough that people could buy into that.
Badenoch has zero chance of becoming next PM, she didn't even get into the top 3 with Tory MPs last time. For the same reason she probably won't even be Leader of the Opposition assuming Sunak leads the Tories into the next general election
Indeed - is there anyone else under whose leadership the Conservatives would be doing demonstrably better? This was the thing with Major - he may not have been everyone's idea of the perfect leader but no one else by that time was going to do any better (whether Portillo, had he successfully challenged Major in 1995, would have done any better against Blair is debatable).
It's all very well suggesting Badenoch and she would have a brief honeymoon as someone new and different but the problems besetting Sunak would become her problems. She might mitigate the defeat - she might not - and given her seat, she would survive all but the most horrendous defeats but imagine if she emerged the other side with just 100 other MPs, would she want the grind of 10 years in Opposition?
This isn't the same as Major. Major had some grave presentational issues, but the fundamentals of the country were sound, and it was probably fair that Tory MPs hoped Saatchi and Saatchi would come up with a great campaign to keep them in. By contrast, Sunak has an economy in crisis, resulting in plunging quality of life, and he isn't doing anything about it except touting a fall in inflation and other measly economical targets that are baked in. In fact, on energy, his policies have actively damaged domestic supply. Yes, he's rubbish at the presentation too, and doesn't have any political judgement, and yes the crumbling public services don't help, but those aren't the main point.
Kemi would come in and show vigorous action. Yes, she'd be running against her predecessors in the same way that Boris did, but she's different enough that people could buy into that.
Kemi would make no difference. In 1978 John West tinned salmon was discovered to carry botulism. Several people died and John West products-particularly tinned salmon- became avoided like the plague. Literally. The only viable alternative was Princess whose market share boomed. John West could have replaced their board and employed the best MD in the world but it would have made no difference. The brand was dead in the water and it stayed that way for years.
Yes, they’ve Ratnered the brand. They’ll be back though, in due course, because we have a FPTP system. In a PR world the Tories would now be overtaken by one or more other right of centre parties, probably a populist one and an orange book / Christian democrat clone. And Labour would now be a Corbyn-led lefty cult with a bigger Blairite party to its right.
Tories in crisis as party's chief executive and treasurer dragged into tax dodging row
Tory treasurer Graham Edwards was found to have used a tax avoidance scheme, while the party's chief executive Stephen Massey still works for a firm that helps the rich slash their tax bills
Indeed - is there anyone else under whose leadership the Conservatives would be doing demonstrably better? This was the thing with Major - he may not have been everyone's idea of the perfect leader but no one else by that time was going to do any better (whether Portillo, had he successfully challenged Major in 1995, would have done any better against Blair is debatable).
It's all very well suggesting Badenoch and she would have a brief honeymoon as someone new and different but the problems besetting Sunak would become her problems. She might mitigate the defeat - she might not - and given her seat, she would survive all but the most horrendous defeats but imagine if she emerged the other side with just 100 other MPs, would she want the grind of 10 years in Opposition?
This isn't the same as Major. Major had some grave presentational issues, but the fundamentals of the country were sound, and it was probably fair that Tory MPs hoped Saatchi and Saatchi would come up with a great campaign to keep them in. By contrast, Sunak has an economy in crisis, resulting in plunging quality of life, and he isn't doing anything about it except touting a fall in inflation and other measly economical targets that are baked in. In fact, on energy, his policies have actively damaged domestic supply. Yes, he's rubbish at the presentation too, and doesn't have any political judgement, and yes the crumbling public services don't help, but those aren't the main point.
Kemi would come in and show vigorous action. Yes, she'd be running against her predecessors in the same way that Boris did, but she's different enough that people could buy into that.
Kemi would make no difference. In 1978 John West tinned salmon was discovered to carry botulism. Several people died and John West products-particularly tinned salmon- became avoided like the plague. Literally. The only viable alternative was Princess whose market share boomed. John West could have replaced their board and employed the best MD in the world but it would have made no difference. The brand was dead in the water and it stayed that way for years.
Yes, they’ve Ratnered the brand. They’ll be back though, in due course, because we have a FPTP system. In a PR world the Tories would now be overtaken by one or more other right of centre parties, probably a populist one and an orange book / Christian democrat clone. And Labour would now be a Corbyn-led lefty cult with a bigger Blairite party to its right.
Under PR the next election might even have been Farage v a Corbynite party with the Tories and LDs having the balance of power
Subject to the proverbial bus Sunak will lead the Tories into the next election. Another change of leader would be beyond ridiculous. Since it is vanishingly unlikely that the election will be this year Mike's bet looks a solid loser and he should cash out.
It was already ridiculous when they got rid of Truss. I'm not sure doing the done thing should be the Tories' top priority right now.
It's not a great position to have but I think the Tories are just kind of hoping that people forget that the Truss thing ever happened. That might take a while.
It's not Truss the electorate need to forget, it's the fact the Tories have delivered this Brexit that will utterly doom the Tories.
Subject to the proverbial bus Sunak will lead the Tories into the next election. Another change of leader would be beyond ridiculous. Since it is vanishingly unlikely that the election will be this year Mike's bet looks a solid loser and he should cash out.
It was already ridiculous when they got rid of Truss. I'm not sure doing the done thing should be the Tories' top priority right now.
It's not a great position to have but I think the Tories are just kind of hoping that people forget that the Truss thing ever happened. That might take a while.
It's not Truss the electorate need to forget, it's the fact the Tories have delivered this Brexit that will utterly doom the Tories.
It's a combination of an unprecedented number of calamities, misfortunes, own goals, corrupt practices, tin earedness, knee jerk unfairness, personal enrichment and preferment, unsuitable leaders and batshit crazy MP's and members. Amongst a lot of other drawbacks.
The irony is that I'm told anytime the vaccine rollout is mentioned all the focus groups talking about is the lockdowns and how Boris and the Tories partied and broke the rules.
Tories in crisis as party's chief executive and treasurer dragged into tax dodging row
Tory treasurer Graham Edwards was found to have used a tax avoidance scheme, while the party's chief executive Stephen Massey still works for a firm that helps the rich slash their tax bills
It just never ends, does it. Maybe the Tories would actually be better off calling an election now, rather than waiting two years. Between 60 and 80 seats, versus 20.
Tories in crisis as party's chief executive and treasurer dragged into tax dodging row
Tory treasurer Graham Edwards was found to have used a tax avoidance scheme, while the party's chief executive Stephen Massey still works for a firm that helps the rich slash their tax bills
DeSantis doesn’t seem to be big on academic freedom.
https://twitter.com/deonteleologist/status/1619883181335007232 Eddie Speir, whom Gov. DeSantis recently appointed (alongside Chris Rufo) to the @NewCollegeofFL Board of Trustees, publicly announces intention to seek legal approval to immediately terminate the contracts of all faculty, staff, and administration at the university.
BREAKING: Kari Lake just accidentally admitted on a hot mic that she was only still going through with the rigged election accusations in Arizona to impress Trump and be picked for his vice president.
Indeed - is there anyone else under whose leadership the Conservatives would be doing demonstrably better? This was the thing with Major - he may not have been everyone's idea of the perfect leader but no one else by that time was going to do any better (whether Portillo, had he successfully challenged Major in 1995, would have done any better against Blair is debatable).
It's all very well suggesting Badenoch and she would have a brief honeymoon as someone new and different but the problems besetting Sunak would become her problems. She might mitigate the defeat - she might not - and given her seat, she would survive all but the most horrendous defeats but imagine if she emerged the other side with just 100 other MPs, would she want the grind of 10 years in Opposition?
This isn't the same as Major. Major had some grave presentational issues, but the fundamentals of the country were sound, and it was probably fair that Tory MPs hoped Saatchi and Saatchi would come up with a great campaign to keep them in. By contrast, Sunak has an economy in crisis, resulting in plunging quality of life, and he isn't doing anything about it except touting a fall in inflation and other measly economical targets that are baked in. In fact, on energy, his policies have actively damaged domestic supply. Yes, he's rubbish at the presentation too, and doesn't have any political judgement, and yes the crumbling public services don't help, but those aren't the main point.
Kemi would come in and show vigorous action. Yes, she'd be running against her predecessors in the same way that Boris did, but she's different enough that people could buy into that.
Badenoch has zero chance of becoming next PM, she didn't even get into the top 3 with Tory MPs last time. For the same reason she probably won't even be Leader of the Opposition assuming Sunak leads the Tories into the next general election
I did not bring her into the conversation as a likely candidate; I am merely describing how she'd probably do a lot better than the supply-PM we have at the moment.
Tories in crisis as party's chief executive and treasurer dragged into tax dodging row
Tory treasurer Graham Edwards was found to have used a tax avoidance scheme, while the party's chief executive Stephen Massey still works for a firm that helps the rich slash their tax bills
It just never ends, does it. Maybe the Tories would actually be better off calling an election now, rather than waiting two years. Between 60 and 80 seats, versus 20.
Indeed - is there anyone else under whose leadership the Conservatives would be doing demonstrably better? This was the thing with Major - he may not have been everyone's idea of the perfect leader but no one else by that time was going to do any better (whether Portillo, had he successfully challenged Major in 1995, would have done any better against Blair is debatable).
It's all very well suggesting Badenoch and she would have a brief honeymoon as someone new and different but the problems besetting Sunak would become her problems. She might mitigate the defeat - she might not - and given her seat, she would survive all but the most horrendous defeats but imagine if she emerged the other side with just 100 other MPs, would she want the grind of 10 years in Opposition?
This isn't the same as Major. Major had some grave presentational issues, but the fundamentals of the country were sound, and it was probably fair that Tory MPs hoped Saatchi and Saatchi would come up with a great campaign to keep them in. By contrast, Sunak has an economy in crisis, resulting in plunging quality of life, and he isn't doing anything about it except touting a fall in inflation and other measly economical targets that are baked in. In fact, on energy, his policies have actively damaged domestic supply. Yes, he's rubbish at the presentation too, and doesn't have any political judgement, and yes the crumbling public services don't help, but those aren't the main point.
Kemi would come in and show vigorous action. Yes, she'd be running against her predecessors in the same way that Boris did, but she's different enough that people could buy into that.
Kemi would make no difference. In 1978 John West tinned salmon was discovered to carry botulism. Several people died and John West products-particularly tinned salmon- became avoided like the plague. Literally. The only viable alternative was Princess whose market share boomed. John West could have replaced their board and employed the best MD in the world but it would have made no difference. The brand was dead in the water and it stayed that way for years.
Perhaps, but Starmer still hasn't closed the deal in my opinion. That's why we're hearing a lot of nice noises from Labourites loving Sunak's dismal decline-management.
Tories in crisis as party's chief executive and treasurer dragged into tax dodging row
Tory treasurer Graham Edwards was found to have used a tax avoidance scheme, while the party's chief executive Stephen Massey still works for a firm that helps the rich slash their tax bills
On our cultured and progressive neighbours in Lincolnshire. North Lindsey is in with Yorkshire and Humberside. Holland is part of East Anglia so we can fight Boston folk as we have done for generations. Kesteven and South Lindsey are part of the East Midlands (or alternatively part of a new Greater Rutland).
Meanwhlle I see the mentions of a Truss comeback and the the possibility of Kemi 4 PM. Amount to the same thing don't they? PM Starmer and a SNP Loyal Opposition.
Good to see the Lib Dems branching out into cloropleth maps - I assume it was their handiwork, colouring the agnostic areas in a lighter shade of the Bregret colour so that the map looks almost entirely green?
Which is daft anyway, because the map is mostly green, without the libdemery.
Ah, nevermind, I was writing crap, wasn't I? It's not a five level scale, that's not a key.
Cambs should just give the fetid fens to Lincolnshire and be done with.
Tories in crisis as party's chief executive and treasurer dragged into tax dodging row
Tory treasurer Graham Edwards was found to have used a tax avoidance scheme, while the party's chief executive Stephen Massey still works for a firm that helps the rich slash their tax bills
What finance or accountancy firm doesn't help its rich clients cut their tax bills? If a tax avoidance scheme is legal so what?
What a ludicrous non story. That is what people expect Tories to do, it would only be relevant and hypocrisy if Labour people did it
I, er, agree with HYUFD. At least on the Massey story. Working for a firm that advises rich people on tax schemes, even if aggressive and even if at the morally questionable end of the spectrum, is not comparable with “carelessly” failing to declare capital gains in the manner of Zahawi.
Comments
I’m balls deep on Jacob Rees-Mogg as next PM.
The Tories will go for full Australian.
Yes
Evening all
A busy day of polling and a lot to consider.
Plenty of coverage of the Ipsos numbers (understandably) but the fieldwork was 18-25 January so in essence ancient history. I note a 22 point Labour lead (49-27) among those expressing a preference.
On then to Deltapoll (fieldwork 26-30 January) so more recent and the pollster which recently has given the lowest Labour and highest Conservative vote shares and therefore the smallest gap between the parties. It also consistently finds fewer Reform supporters but the addition of Conservative and Reform (33%) mirrors the numbers in other polls.
Looking at the Deltapoll data tables, Labour ahead by just 10 among men (44-34) and the Conservatives lead by 12 (41-29) among those aged 65 or over. The LDs are at 13% among the over 65s and 12% among the 35-54 age group but 3-4% elsewhere which seems odd.
The Conservative 2019 vote splits 71% Loyal, 14% Labour and 7% Reform but this excludes Don't Knows and the cynic in me might think they've simply shoved all the DKs into the "Loyal" column. We also have Labour only 10 points ahead in London (42-32), but six points ahead in rest of the South (41-35).
If you want this evening's first giggle, look at the Deltapoll Midlands subsample which splits Conservative 42%, Labour 36%, LD 17%. The Scottish sub sample is another to savour so plenty of ifs, buts and maybes around @HYUFD's favourite pollster if I'm being honest.
Redfield & Wilton has the headline gap down to 21 points (49-28). Among those intending to vote, Labour leads 43-24 with DKs on 13%. The Conservatives lead 36-30 among those aged 65 and over. The 2019 Conservative vote splits 52% Conservative, 23% Labour, 14% DK and 7% Reform (that's one of the biggest direct-to-Labour numbers I've seen).
Taking out the DKs, the Labour lead among men is just 10% but among women it's 34%. Among those aged 65 and over, the Conservative lead is 7 points (41-34). The 2019 Conservative vote splits 61% Conservative, 27% Labour.
The area sub samples once again interest - whereas Deltapoll had the SNP ahead of Labour by 43-39, R&W has SNP on 38%, Conservative on 25% and Labour on 21%.
The one I always look at is England - this time Labour leads 52-29 with the LDs on 8%.
In 2019, England voted for the Conservatives 47-34 so that's an 18% swing from Conservative to Labour. That takes us to Wellingborough, the 250th most marginal Conservative seat which would fall on that swing. Consider tactical voting and a seat like Stratford-on-Avon with its near 20,000 majority could be vulnerable if Labour voters switched in sufficient numbers to the LDs.
The R&W numbers would suggest the Conservatives holding their vote in Scotland and dropping 18 points in England - yes, I'm not convinced either.
The eldest (16) buys into the idea that JKR is completely beyond the pale - she follows the fashion on this one. She doesn't want to read any counter arguments or listen to JKR - because that would make her a bad person.
The younger (13) pointed out that condemning people on the say so of others is exactly what leads to the murderous fatwas that get kicked around.
Oh, and the Truss comeback of course.
Who they gonna replace him with - Harry Houdini?
Net satisfaction
Rishi Sunak
England -26
Scotland -33
Keir Starmer
England -3
Scotland -13
Ed Davey
England -10
Scotland -20
Such popular guys.
Actually, what they really need is Joris Bohnson- all the charisma, none of the baggage.
Anyone who says "Hey, that's just BoJo with a comedy fake spectacles and moustache combo" will be sent to Lincolnshire for reeducation.
It's all very well suggesting Badenoch and she would have a brief honeymoon as someone new and different but the problems besetting Sunak would become her problems. She might mitigate the defeat - she might not - and given her seat, she would survive all but the most horrendous defeats but imagine if she emerged the other side with just 100 other MPs, would she want the grind of 10 years in Opposition?
England
monarchy 66%
republic 20%
DK 13%
Scotland
monarchy 46%
republic 35%
DK 19%
Ipsos
After the election, who knows.
The whole A1 route is a bit of a journey into nowhere, at least until you hit the Vale of York.
Kemi would come in and show vigorous action. Yes, she'd be running against her predecessors in the same way that Boris did, but she's different enough that people could buy into that.
I personally favour keeping a slimmed-down monarchy. Let's go Scandinavia, plus a written constitution.
Even as a supporter, surely you have to conclude at best it's made no difference at all?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-48387010
(Political History exam, 2073)
Amongst a lot of other drawbacks.
It's usually classed as West Midlands, but that is dominated by Birmingham, so it sometimes prefers to be classed as South West, but then it doesn't have much in common with Devon and Cornwall. It's close to Oxfordhire, but not culturally.
So it's a bit sort of....hmmmm.
Which is daft anyway, because the map is mostly green, without the libdemery.
Ah, nevermind, I was writing crap, wasn't I? It's not a five level scale, that's not a key.
Lincolnshire has come up as a possibility but as devout Remainers, I'm not sure we'd fit in. Better cross it off the list.
Surely taking the piss?
He has si… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1620132144206188544
Surely taking the piss?"
Only 1 percent? Count yourself lucky. In my experience, up to 5 percent will say almost anything in US polls. And I shudder to think how many believe in astrology. (Credit where due: I have many criticisms to make of the New York Times, but I appaaud the fact they do not have an astrology column -- though I am sure some their people believe in astorlogy.)
(*or at least not dislikeable/repulsive)
Fewer in England back a republic than even voted for Corbyn or Michael Foot.
In Scotland the monarchy still clearly ahead too
Tory treasurer Graham Edwards was found to have used a tax avoidance scheme, while the party's chief executive Stephen Massey still works for a firm that helps the rich slash their tax bills
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tories-crisis-partys-chief-executive-29090104
There, fixed that for you.
What a ludicrous non story. That is what people expect Tories to do, it would only be relevant and hypocrisy if Labour people did it
https://twitter.com/deonteleologist/status/1619883181335007232
Eddie Speir, whom Gov. DeSantis recently appointed (alongside Chris Rufo) to the @NewCollegeofFL Board of Trustees, publicly announces intention to seek legal approval to immediately terminate the contracts of all faculty, staff, and administration at the university.
BREAKING: Kari Lake just accidentally admitted on a hot mic that she was only still going through with the rigged election accusations in Arizona to impress Trump and be picked for his vice president.
https://twitter.com/HalfwayPost/status/1619564447231803393?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1619564447231803393|twgr^cca8ec4771d45ce5a8a7b28bab604e4155523d6a|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https://www.theforum365.com/index.php?app=coremodule=systemcontroller=embedurl=https://twitter.com/HalfwayPost/status/1619564447231803393?t=5GRNMAelEHI9EgHYdsSHRg26s=19
Meanwhlle I see the mentions of a Truss comeback and the the possibility of Kemi 4 PM. Amount to the same thing don't they? PM Starmer and a SNP Loyal Opposition.