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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Suddenly what’s emerging as the key issue facing voters is not one where the Tories or Labour are setting the agenda

In the latest YouGov poll Ed Miliband & Ed Balls sink to new low on who’s trusted to run economy … 24% v Cameron & Osborne on 39%; 15 point lead.

Read the full story here

RodCrosby

'Women less concerned about immigration than men.'
It was ever thus, in human history...

anotherDave

YouGov found failure to reduce immigration to be the Tories number 2 negative with all voters. Number 1 negative with Con supporters & Con defectors.

Failure to stand up to the EU was number 2, for Con supporters/defectors.

http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/01/27/how-tories-can-win-next-election/

john_zims

Gets worse for Labour with immigration now no 1 issue,what are they going to talk about?

Their 13 year record of free for all immigration policy for both EU & non EU nationals that has given us a housing crisis,not to mention the strain on schools,hospitals etc and wage cuts for workers.

Mick_Pork

G Phi ‏@grahphil 2h

#Cameron plays Theremin to calm #Tory rebels anxious about his failure to control immigration http://fw.to/upbeZuK

Jonathan Portes ‏@jdportes 3h

Would be good news! "@Tim_Aker:
Cameron abandons pledge to reduce migration to 10s of 1000s. Another promise broken http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/

Things look dire for the fop on immigration. Farage is grinning away. Tory rebels are getting angrier by the second at the Cameroon spinners. At least things couldn't get any worse.

Labour to help government defeat Tory rebels over EU work restrictions

Conservative backbenchers seeking to re-impose controls on Romanians and Bulgarians in Commons immigration bill debate

The Labour party is to vote with the government to help defeat an attempt by rebel Tory backbenchers to put Britain in breach of its EU obligations by reimposing work restrictions on Romanians and Bulgarians until 2018

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/jan/28/labour-help-government-defeat-tory-rebels-romanian-bulgarian-workers

That should help calm the rebels down.

Gildas

Immigration is a better issue for Tories than it is for Labour. Likewise, Tories are positive on the other two leading issues - the economy and unemployment.

Labour's Big Thing, inflation/prices, is down at number 8.

And wasn't this meant to be the week Miliband got his 50p tax boost? Yet voters seem even less keen to trust him with the economy than before.

As I said yesterday, a policy can be popular, but still damaging to the party that promotes it, if it reinforces a negative perception of that party: Labour = tax rises.

MonikerDiCanio

Gildas said:

Immigration is a better issue for Tories than it is for Labour. Likewise, Tories are positive on the other two leading issues - the economy and unemployment.

Labour's Big Thing, inflation/prices, is down at number 8.

And wasn't this meant to be the week Miliband got his 50p tax boost? Yet voters seem even less keen to trust him with the economy than before.

As I said yesterday, a policy can be popular, but still damaging to the party that promotes it, if it reinforces a negative perception of that party: Labour = tax rises.

Labour's "cost of living crisis" propaganda has failed totally as fast fading "inflation/prices" concern shows.

Millsy

Looking back a bit further, concern for immigration is less than it was in 2007 and 2008 and at about the same level as it was at the 2010 election. Only now there's actually a government that wants to talk about it and a media that tries to attach it to the rise of Ukip that are regardless the new default none of the above party.

http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/2905/Issues-Index-2007-onwards.aspx?view=wide

SimonStClare

"Ranked as being more influential on Twitter than Rupert Murdoch AND Nadine Dorries"

Isn't that a bit like saying 'makes better pancakes than Eugene bolt' ; )

felix

I think the above analysis is weak. Economy and unemployment are both up since December - I suspect because both have been in the news and both with good headlines for the govt. Cost of living is down despite Labour's 'crisis' meme. NHS is up reflecting the usual winter crisis stories. Immigration up reflects again the stories about Romanians. Since this week's polls suggest a small narrowing one suspects on balance this poll is probably one that is more worrying for Labour than the Conservatives. I remain on the fence about UKIP.

TGOHF

Suggests the Mail, Sun and Express are still influential.

SouthamObserver

As a monthly poll, this surely reflects the Romanian and Bulgarian invasion stories in late December/early January.

TGOHF

Carney speech on the £ after independence for Scotland today - riots in Bath tonight ?

felix

SimonStClare said:

"Ranked as being more influential on Twitter than Rupert Murdoch AND Nadine Dorries"

Isn't that a bit like saying 'makes better pancakes than Eugene bolt' ; )

LOL - I suspect the lifespan of twitter and facebook may not last the decade in their present forms.

[Deleted User]

Is Carney going to say: No way Jose?

The SNP assume that they can force England to let them share a currency. I'm not sure that is actually true or in England's own interest. This will be interesting.

JohnLoony

The thing about Lib Dems becoming gradually less willing to switch to Labour (and/or Labour supporters switching back to Lib Dem) backs up what I've been thinking all along.

TGOHF

Labour using parly time to try to force Cam to apologise for modernising Britain.


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2547774/Say-sorry-Maggies-role-miners-strike-Labour-tell-Tories-Opposition-claims-late-PMs-government-deliberately-tried-escalate-debate.html

JohnLoony

If UKIP goes up to 20 or 25 MEPs in May, then a large proportion of them will probably turn out to be just as useless, lazy and incompetent as the ones elected in 2009, and the group will probably contain just as many gallumphing booliaks, twogliaks, nincompoops, pobblequacks and treacle-pudding maniacs as before. Nikki Sinclaire MEP was born on the same day as me.

Blue_rog

Mike, I don't necessarily agree with your point

"Declining concerns about the economy take away a blue strong-point"

I think the declining concern is down to the Tories having won the argument. Most people are mostly comfortable with Tory management and the issue will only become relevant when there's a choice over keeping to the plan or risking an alternative.

I expect the economy to be one of THE main platforms during the GE campaign with an easy Tory message - don't rock the boat!

JohnLoony

It was only about 2 hours ago that I discovered that the State of the Union Address was happening tonight. Otherwise I might have watched it, even though it's always the same as ever

"The State of the Union is straaang" [applause] "God Bless the United States of America" [applause] spin, statistics, jargon [applause]

DavidL

I tend to agree with those who suggest saliance on topics like this is simply a reflection of the news stories over the last month. So persistent stories about hordes of Bulgars and Romanians have increased the concerns about immigration.

If that is right a lot will depend on the accuracy of Cameron's preliminary assessment that comparatively few are coming. If that is borne out over the coming months the saliance should fall again. If he is wrong he is in trouble. I very much hope he is not basing his assessment on the same set of civil servants who were so unbelievably wrong the last time.

The fact is that the UK is creating almost as many jobs at the moment as the rest of the EU put together. For as long as that persists there is inevitably going to be some pull on those who have a right to come here and are desperate for work.

Millsy

Is today's YouGov lead of 3% an outlier as well?

[Deleted User]

The salience of issues reflects how worried people are about them. That the economy is on a fast slide down the worry list can only be good news for the country.

And what is the electoral impact of this? Well usually people vote Tory when we're in the doodoo as they want nanny to sort a mess out, and when times are good they feel freer to vote for the other lot and their high spending ways.

Right now I'm guessing that people sense the overall picture is fast improving but their own circumstances maybe aren't yet following suit. Every poll tells us that Labour is less trusted on the economy and I guess everyone knows we're not nearly out the woods yet. For Dave this means that 'don't let Labour back in to screw it all up again' is the right message. He just needs to translate the macro good news into persoanl good news for the man on the Clapham Omnibus.

redcliffe62

Patrick said:

Is Carney going to say: No way Jose?

The SNP assume that they can force England to let them share a currency. I'm not sure that is actually true or in England's own interest. This will be interesting.

Scotland can use any currency it wants. US dollar, peso, pound which it has about 8% in terms of assets, whatever. The issue is more to do with assets and liabilities.

Innocent_Abroad

The Tories may not be "setting the agenda" on racism (let's call things by their real names, shall we) but it is the most powerful item on the political agenda (every human being alive, dead, or yet to be born has one mother tongue and one only) and it's possible to imagine Lynton Crosby commissioning some polling to discover the %age of white voters who would like to see the repeal of all race equality legislation. What do my fellow-Peebies think the result would be to that one? My own guess would be 30-40% of graduates and 70-80% of non-graduate whites.

TGOHF

Innocent_Abroad said:

The Tories may not be "setting the agenda" on racism (let's call things by their real names, shall we) but it is the most powerful item on the political agenda (every human being alive, dead, or yet to be born has one mother tongue and one only) and it's possible to imagine Lynton Crosby commissioning some polling to discover the %age of white voters who would like to see the repeal of all race equality legislation. What do my fellow-Peebies think the result would be to that one? My own guess would be 30-40% of graduates and 70-80% of non-graduate whites.

We want a repeal of the baby eating laws first.

dugarbandier

Innocent_Abroad said:

every human being alive, dead, or yet to be born has one mother tongue and one only

how about my bilingual kids? or are you using a very restrictive definition of "mother-tongue"?

dugarbandier

Innocent_Abroad said:

The Tories may not be "setting the agenda" on racism (let's call things by their real names, shall we) but it is the most powerful item on the political agenda (every human being alive, dead, or yet to be born has one mother tongue and one only) and it's possible to imagine Lynton Crosby commissioning some polling to discover the %age of white voters who would like to see the repeal of all race equality legislation. What do my fellow-Peebies think the result would be to that one? My own guess would be 30-40% of graduates and 70-80% of non-graduate whites.

you seem to have quite a negative view of white people. Most people are fairly tolerant, in my experience. Many of them are engaging in miscegenation. That doesn't mean that all of them are in favour of open borders

Scrapheap_as_was

Thinking about '50p' last night and whether it might see a Lab bounce or not, it made me wonder whether people who don't really follow politics with any interest (there are some I believe) would think:

1. Hang on I recognise that bloke with a funny name, he's in the Government or was when all the banks collapsed and that annoying man on the BBC from Preston was always on.
2. I thought they'd already brought in that 50p thing when they were in power and because we were in the shite.
3. I don't think the banks are going bust currently, nothing on the news any way.
4. So years and years on, he wants to do the same thing again as when we were in the shite.
5. It didn't make me any better off last time, why will it if he does it again? Also I really don't want to see that man from Preston on the telly all the time again if he does it.

Basically - Balls was the problem with this new radical idea.

Just a theory, along the same 'optimistic' lines of Spurs maybe putting in a season defining performance by avenging the 6-0 last time vs Man C.....

JosiasJessop

Hmmmm ...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2547738/How-saved-grandchild-forced-adoption-Couple-came-48-hours-losing-three-month-old-baby-India-forever.html

[Deleted User]

redcliffe62 said:

Patrick said:

Is Carney going to say: No way Jose?

The SNP assume that they can force England to let them share a currency. I'm not sure that is actually true or in England's own interest. This will be interesting.

Scotland can use any currency it wants. US dollar, peso, pound which it has about 8% in terms of assets, whatever. The issue is more to do with assets and liabilities.

The Scots would be entirely at liberty to use Sterling - in the way that some tiny Caribbean nations use the Dollar. But they may have no say whatever in decision making at the BoE. They may have no lender of last resort for Scottish banks. They may have no buyer of Scottish bonds (so would need to borrow from a real market). They may have, in fact, no independence at all for their finances. That's a funny kind of 'independence'.

Innocent_Abroad

Dugarbandier [7.47am, 7.51am] Yes, I erred about mother tongues: there will be a few who are brought up in bilingual households. A very few. However, your use of the term "miscegenation" is revealing in its own way. More generally, my view of white people (of whom I am one) is undoubtedly influenced by having been a line manager of race equality advisers, for whom despising white people was pretty much a requirement of the job (and in the case of women, despising men as well...)

dugarbandier

JosiasJessop said:

Hmmmm ...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2547738/How-saved-grandchild-forced-adoption-Couple-came-48-hours-losing-three-month-old-baby-India-forever.html

hmmmm indeed. but in the absence of a quote or opinion from the mother, maybe its difficult to get the full picture

Sean_F

Innocent_Abroad said:

The Tories may not be "setting the agenda" on racism (let's call things by their real names, shall we) but it is the most powerful item on the political agenda (every human being alive, dead, or yet to be born has one mother tongue and one only) and it's possible to imagine Lynton Crosby commissioning some polling to discover the %age of white voters who would like to see the repeal of all race equality legislation. What do my fellow-Peebies think the result would be to that one? My own guess would be 30-40% of graduates and 70-80% of non-graduate whites.

It would depend how you put the question. If you asked "should it be legal to deny someone a job or house because they are black" I'm sure a large majority would say No.

If (like British Social Attitudes) you ask people if Race Equality legislation has gone too far/not far enough/is about right, then you find far more people think it's gone too far than think it's not gone far enough. Scrapping things like ethnic monitoring or the public sector equality duty would probably be popular among White voters.

dugarbandier

Innocent_Abroad said:

Dugarbandier [7.47am, 7.51am] Yes, I erred about mother tongues: there will be a few who are brought up in bilingual households. A very few. However, your use of the term "miscegenation" is revealing in its own way. More generally, my view of white people (of whom I am one) is undoubtedly influenced by having been a line manager of race equality advisers, for whom despising white people was pretty much a requirement of the job (and in the case of women, despising men as well...)

hope my ironic use of the term didn't offend you. offence not intended. I can well imagine petty eaurocrats of that nature could be a royal pain in the arse. still suspect you overestimate the numnbers wanting all legislation repealed tho

Innocent_Abroad

dugarbandier said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

Dugarbandier [7.47am, 7.51am] Yes, I erred about mother tongues: there will be a few who are brought up in bilingual households. A very few. However, your use of the term "miscegenation" is revealing in its own way. More generally, my view of white people (of whom I am one) is undoubtedly influenced by having been a line manager of race equality advisers, for whom despising white people was pretty much a requirement of the job (and in the case of women, despising men as well...)

hope my ironic use of the term didn't offend you. offence not intended. I can well imagine petty eaurocrats of that nature could be a royal pain in the arse. still suspect you overestimate the numnbers wanting all legislation repealed tho

I think Sean F makes a good point about how the question's phrased. And I don't often agree with him!

I'd better sign up for an irony detection class, too...

OldKingCole

One mother tongue? I've two half-Brit, half Thai grandchildren and they both spoke both languages from the time they started to speak; Thai to their mother and English to their father. Don't recall there being a mixture, either.

TheLastBoyScout

Last night's YouGov looks a lot more normal, taking a peek at the internals.

34% of 2010 LDs going Labour. Gens X and Y heavily Red again with the Baby Boomers Blue.

So looks a solid poll. Labour need to do better than that overall.

TheScreamingEagles

TheLastBoyScout said:

Last night's YouGov looks a lot more normal, taking a peek at the internals.

34% of 2010 LDs going Labour. Gens X and Y heavily Red again with the Baby Boomers Blue.

So looks a solid poll. Labour need to do better than that overall.

It is actually 27.64% of 2010, you need to take into account the 2010 LDs who won't vote/refused to say.

TheScreamingEagles

I'm now concerned about immigration more than the economy.

I'm concerned UKIP's rhetoric is forcing the other major parties to try and OutKip them and that will effect the ability of this country to attract high quality immigrants to this country.

dugarbandier

Innocent_Abroad said:

I'd better sign up for an irony detection class, too...

really should remember to refrain from online irony!

richardDodd

Soaraway Labour..a full 3 points ahead...no stopping these lads.

TheLastBoyScout

@TSE

Won't we just net those off, as with headline numbers?

TheScreamingEagles

What are the England selectors smoking?

Jade Dernbach in and Ben Stokes out.

TheLastBoyScout

richardDodd said:

Soaraway Labour..a full 3 points ahead...no stopping these lads.

To be fair, you write that when a poll shows a small lead then disappear entirely when it shows a larger one. It's a tendency I have noted among others on here too.

TheLastBoyScout

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm now concerned about immigration more than the economy.

I'm concerned UKIP's rhetoric is forcing the other major parties to try and OutKip them and that will effect the ability of this country to attract high quality immigrants to this country.

Quite right - well said.

TheScreamingEagles

TheLastBoyScout said:

@TSE

Won't we just net those off, as with headline numbers?

Not when talking about 2010 Lib Dems.

TheLastBoyScout

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheLastBoyScout said:

@TSE

Won't we just net those off, as with headline numbers?

Not when talking about 2010 Lib Dems.

Why are they a special case? I note that Sunday's poll, which had a much better headline Lab score, had a lower proportion of LD pledges. The average figure hasn't changed much has it?

TheLastBoyScout

TheScreamingEagles said:

What are the England selectors smoking?

Jade Dernbach in and Ben Stokes out.

I suppose they have to find some way to enjoy themselves in Australia.

TheScreamingEagles

Then I remember Ed Balls could be Chancellor in a little over fifteen months time, then the economy becomes my number one concern.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

F1 testing underway. McLaren filled their car up with electricity and Button's done an installation lap.

In good news, Ashton's been tossed overboard for the match against France: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/rugbyunion/article-2547675/SIX-NATIONS-2014-England-gamble-flying-machines-Jack-Nowell-Jonny-May-Chris-Ashton-axed.html

SquareRoot

I have just watched Balls on Paxo. It seems he is as deluded as ever claiming that the Govt had failed to get the deficit down.. and he thinks he should be the next Cof the E. Of course he failed to acknowledge that it was Labours fault we were in the mess we found ourselves. He's been having too many piano lessons

richardDodd

tlbs..well spotted..now go and get your spotters badge.

TheLastBoyScout

@TSE

The last poll to show Lab on +8 had LD switchers on 36%, well within MOE of today's number. I suggest that Mike's tweet may be a blip?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Root, indeed.

"This deficit's enormous! It's almost as large as the one we left them! If only they'd cut faster, and further!"

Morris_Dancer

Oh, and it's wet weather day. So, a tractor's been out spraying water over the track. This is the only guaranteed wet weather day, but obviously it could rain later (although probably not in Bahrain).

TheScreamingEagles

SquareRoot said:

I have just watched Balls on Paxo. It seems he is as deluded as ever claiming that the Govt had failed to get the deficit down.. and he thinks he should be the next Cof the E. Of course he failed to acknowledge that it was Labours fault we were in the mess we found ourselves. He's been having too many piano lessons

That interview reminded me why people on Balls' own side want to punch him.

Fenster

"Women less concerned about immigration than men"

Too busy worrying about male Lib Dem politicians, lol.

SouthamObserver

What the economy polling shows us, in my view, is that the Tory vote is exceptionally solid. That 39% is in large part made up of 2010 Tory voters - none of whom can be disappointed enough by what they have seen on the economic front since then to abandon the party. Thus, when push comes to shove in 2015 the Tories should get on or about what they got in 2010 - unless UKIP can make immigration fly beyond May. Given that, the key demographic remains the 2010 LDs. If enough of them stick with Labour in Tory/Lab seats and enough drift back to the LDs in Tory/LD seats, then it is hard to see how Labour will not win most seats. An overall majority, though, looks the long shot it always has.

DaemonBarber

TheScreamingEagles said:

SquareRoot said:

I have just watched Balls on Paxo. It seems he is as deluded as ever claiming that the Govt had failed to get the deficit down.. and he thinks he should be the next Cof the E. Of course he failed to acknowledge that it was Labours fault we were in the mess we found ourselves. He's been having too many piano lessons

That interview reminded me why people on Balls' own side want to punch him.

My wife is left leaning, she would be a labour voter if it weren't for the fact that Balls turns her stomach, and as for Ed... She says "how can anybody look at him and think he is a potential PM?"

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Barber, your wife sounds like a sound judge of men.

SouthamObserver

DaemonBarber said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SquareRoot said:

I have just watched Balls on Paxo. It seems he is as deluded as ever claiming that the Govt had failed to get the deficit down.. and he thinks he should be the next Cof the E. Of course he failed to acknowledge that it was Labours fault we were in the mess we found ourselves. He's been having too many piano lessons

That interview reminded me why people on Balls' own side want to punch him.

My wife is left leaning, she would be a labour voter if it weren't for the fact that Balls turns her stomach, and as for Ed... She says "how can anybody look at him and think he is a potential PM?"

It's true that there are a lot of voters who make their choices based on personality not policy. That's why Dave is such an asset to the Tories when you put him up against Ed. Any Tory agitating - overtly or openly - for his removal is insane if they want the Tories to win in 2015.

DaemonBarber

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Barber, your wife sounds like a sound judge of men.

Nah, she married me

o_O

TheLastBoyScout

SouthamObserver said:

DaemonBarber said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SquareRoot said:

I have just watched Balls on Paxo. It seems he is as deluded as ever claiming that the Govt had failed to get the deficit down.. and he thinks he should be the next Cof the E. Of course he failed to acknowledge that it was Labours fault we were in the mess we found ourselves. He's been having too many piano lessons

That interview reminded me why people on Balls' own side want to punch him.

My wife is left leaning, she would be a labour voter if it weren't for the fact that Balls turns her stomach, and as for Ed... She says "how can anybody look at him and think he is a potential PM?"

It's true that there are a lot of voters who make their choices based on personality not policy. That's why Dave is such an asset to the Tories when you put him up against Ed. Any Tory agitating - overtly or openly - for his removal is insane if they want the Tories to win in 2015.

Dave is the best they have. But he also turns some people's stomach!

TGOHF

SouthamObserver said:

DaemonBarber said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SquareRoot said:

I have just watched Balls on Paxo. It seems he is as deluded as ever claiming that the Govt had failed to get the deficit down.. and he thinks he should be the next Cof the E. Of course he failed to acknowledge that it was Labours fault we were in the mess we found ourselves. He's been having too many piano lessons

That interview reminded me why people on Balls' own side want to punch him.

My wife is left leaning, she would be a labour voter if it weren't for the fact that Balls turns her stomach, and as for Ed... She says "how can anybody look at him and think he is a potential PM?"

It's true that there are a lot of voters who make their choices based on personality not policy. That's why Dave is such an asset to the Tories when you put him up against Ed. Any Tory agitating - overtly or openly - for his removal is insane if they want the Tories to win in 2015.

I think there is zero chance of Dave being removed by 2015 - even the "I'm a celebrity" faction have given up on that.

TGOHF

TheScreamingEagles said:

What are the England selectors smoking?

Jade Dernbach in and Ben Stokes out.

Your predicting is getting better - shocker under way.

TheLastBoyScout

I'm going to labour this point - where is the evidence that the 2010 LD switchers are sliding back?

Just looks like statistical noise to me.

@TSE's comment about not netting them off doesn't appear to hold water.

TheLastBoyScout

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Barber, your wife sounds like a sound judge of men.

As you have never met either man, I doubt you can say.

(I assume you haven't met Ed or Dave)

Scrapheap_as_was

Well said SO.

Prediction for tonight please?

Scrapheap_as_was

T20 appears to be living up to past performance on this tour.... dropping Stokes for Dernbach inspired, the latters 2 overs gone for just 25 thus far.

TheScreamingEagles

TheLastBoyScout said:

I'm going to labour this point - where is the evidence that the 2010 LD switchers are sliding back?

Just looks like statistical noise to me.

@TSE's comment about not netting them off doesn't appear to hold water.

No I pointed out your comment was factually incorrect.

Neil

TheScreamingEagles said:

What are the England selectors smoking?

Jade Dernbach in

Finally a selection decision we can all get behind.

TheScreamingEagles

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

What are the England selectors smoking?

Jade Dernbach in and Ben Stokes out.

Your predicting is getting better - shocker under way.

You really do wonder just what blackmailable material Dernbach has on the England selectors and coaches.

It is the only explanation for his continued selection

TheLastBoyScout

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheLastBoyScout said:

I'm going to labour this point - where is the evidence that the 2010 LD switchers are sliding back?

Just looks like statistical noise to me.

@TSE's comment about not netting them off doesn't appear to hold water.

No I pointed out your comment was factually incorrect.

It wasn't though, not in polling terms. Unless you also argue that it's factually incorrect to say the Lab/Con scores are 37/34. That's how we do it, as you know. Concede the point sir!

Neil

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

What are the England selectors smoking?

Jade Dernbach in and Ben Stokes out.

Your predicting is getting better - shocker under way.

You really do wonder just what blackmailable material Dernbach has on the England selectors and coaches.

It is the only explanation for his continued selection

Dont be such a hater. Leave Jade alone.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Scout, I've never met Hannibal or Caesar either, but I still know the former was more competent than the latter.

Also, didn't you just post about Dave* turning some people's stomachs? You can hardly hold that position and complain when others express comparable feelings about Balls and Comrade Miliband.

*It's perverse that 'Dave' was considered entirely unfit as a shorthand for the PM, whereas Nick Clegg, Ed Miliband and Tony Blair are all fine.

TGOHF

Scrapheap_as_was said:

T20 appears to be living up to past performance on this tour.... dropping Stokes for Dernbach inspired, the latters 2 overs gone for just 25 thus far.

Good pitch with one small boundary- anything under 200 amazing for England.

TheScreamingEagles

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Well said SO.

Prediction for tonight please?

I've also backed Emmanuel as first goal scorer @ 8/1 with Ladbrokes.

Scrapheap_as_was

TGOHF said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

T20 appears to be living up to past performance on this tour.... dropping Stokes for Dernbach inspired, the latters 2 overs gone for just 25 thus far.

Good pitch with one small boundary- anything under 200 amazing for England.

but with Dernbach, under 250 would be spiffing.

TheScreamingEagles

TheLastBoyScout said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheLastBoyScout said:

I'm going to labour this point - where is the evidence that the 2010 LD switchers are sliding back?

Just looks like statistical noise to me.

@TSE's comment about not netting them off doesn't appear to hold water.

No I pointed out your comment was factually incorrect.

It wasn't though, not in polling terms. Unless you also argue that it's factually incorrect to say the Lab/Con scores are 37/34. That's how we do it, as you know. Concede the point sir!

You said "34% of 2010 LDs going Labour"

That is incorrect, Mark Senior will confirm it so.

TheScreamingEagles

Neil said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

What are the England selectors smoking?

Jade Dernbach in and Ben Stokes out.

Your predicting is getting better - shocker under way.

You really do wonder just what blackmailable material Dernbach has on the England selectors and coaches.

It is the only explanation for his continued selection

Dont be such a hater. Leave Jade alone.

I'm quite happy to leave Jade alone, on a desert island for the rest of his life, anywhere where the England cricket team isn't

TheLastBoyScout

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Scout, I've never met Hannibal or Caesar either, but I still know the former was more competent than the latter.

Also, didn't you just post about Dave* turning some people's stomachs? You can hardly hold that position and complain when others express comparable feelings about Balls and Comrade Miliband.

*It's perverse that 'Dave' was considered entirely unfit as a shorthand for the PM, whereas Nick Clegg, Ed Miliband and Tony Blair are all fine.

I said some people's stomachs, not mine. I haven't met him so how do I know what he is like as a bloke? I have met many politicians - including Ed - and most are very nice people, including Ed.

TheScreamingEagles

TGOHF said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

T20 appears to be living up to past performance on this tour.... dropping Stokes for Dernbach inspired, the latters 2 overs gone for just 25 thus far.

Good pitch with one small boundary- anything under 200 amazing for England.

Australia's score is going to look like a 50 over match.

Scrapheap_as_was

I think it's safe enough now for Australia to declare.

TheLastBoyScout

I take it from the wall of silence on here that the LD switcher slide thing was indeed a red herring. I would urge our Conservative colleagues to debate the poll - it was a great poll for them. But that was indeed a red herring!

Scrapheap_as_was

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Well said SO.

Prediction for tonight please?

I've also backed Emmanuel as first goal scorer @ 8/1 with Ladbrokes.

Just the one, why not go for the hat trick?

TheLastBoyScout

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheLastBoyScout said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheLastBoyScout said:

I'm going to labour this point - where is the evidence that the 2010 LD switchers are sliding back?

Just looks like statistical noise to me.

@TSE's comment about not netting them off doesn't appear to hold water.

No I pointed out your comment was factually incorrect.

It wasn't though, not in polling terms. Unless you also argue that it's factually incorrect to say the Lab/Con scores are 37/34. That's how we do it, as you know. Concede the point sir!

You said "34% of 2010 LDs going Labour"

That is incorrect, Mark Senior will confirm it so.

Will he also confirm that it is incorrect that 9% of the entire population are LD supporters? By your measure it will be much lower as that figure is also netted off. You are pulling my leg I think, being pedantic.

TheScreamingEagles

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Well said SO.

Prediction for tonight please?

I've also backed Emmanuel as first goal scorer @ 8/1 with Ladbrokes.

Just the one, why not go for the hat trick?

I'm content with my betting on this match.

Spurs to win and City to score more than 4.

So my ideal result is Spurs winning 5-4 and Emmanuel scoring first.

TheScreamingEagles

TheLastBoyScout said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheLastBoyScout said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheLastBoyScout said:

I'm going to labour this point - where is the evidence that the 2010 LD switchers are sliding back?

Just looks like statistical noise to me.

@TSE's comment about not netting them off doesn't appear to hold water.

No I pointed out your comment was factually incorrect.

It wasn't though, not in polling terms. Unless you also argue that it's factually incorrect to say the Lab/Con scores are 37/34. That's how we do it, as you know. Concede the point sir!

You said "34% of 2010 LDs going Labour"

That is incorrect, Mark Senior will confirm it so.

Will he also confirm that it is incorrect that 9% of the entire population are LD supporters? By your measure it will be much lower as that figure is also netted off. You are pulling my leg I think, being pedantic.

You say pedantic I say factual

TheLastBoyScout

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheLastBoyScout said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheLastBoyScout said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheLastBoyScout said:

I'm going to labour this point - where is the evidence that the 2010 LD switchers are sliding back?

Just looks like statistical noise to me.

@TSE's comment about not netting them off doesn't appear to hold water.

No I pointed out your comment was factually incorrect.

It wasn't though, not in polling terms. Unless you also argue that it's factually incorrect to say the Lab/Con scores are 37/34. That's how we do it, as you know. Concede the point sir!

You said "34% of 2010 LDs going Labour"

That is incorrect, Mark Senior will confirm it so.

Will he also confirm that it is incorrect that 9% of the entire population are LD supporters? By your measure it will be much lower as that figure is also netted off. You are pulling my leg I think, being pedantic.

You say pedantic I say factual

I look forward to the next thread header where you publish polling numbers that aren't netted off. I can see it now: 'Catastrophe for big parties as Blues and Reds slide into the 20s'

TGOHF

What's the highest 20/20 international score without losing a wicket ?

Scrapheap_as_was

What will Ed go on PMQs with I wonder....

Syria refugees and him setting the agenda but in a non-political way natch
Edwina's food-banks
40% not ruled out by George for millionaires...

TGOHF

Scrapheap_as_was said:

What will Ed go on PMQs with I wonder....

40% not ruled out by George for millionaires...

This - or bleating for a miners strike apology.

Anything but the present day.

Scrapheap_as_was

There's an Avery like box on the BBC cricket live-text... it's blue though not yellow.

I didn't think those happened when England were in tut field?

Morris_Dancer

The cost of living crisis, Comrade Scrapheap.

With the diligent workers of Britain unable to afford simple necessities such as gym membership and Waitrose caviar Comrade Miliband will assail the capitalist-in-chief Cameron and lay bare his aristocratic pigdog indifference to the suffering of the people.

FrancisUrquhart

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/jan/29/one-pound-houses-stoke-on-trent-regeneration

Is it just me or is this from the notoriously pi$$ poor Stoke Council (they of the Moroccan themed Xmas market idea that resulted in camels getting lost on the ring road) actually a far better idea than all that money that Project Prescott splashed up the wall knocking down perfectly good homes.

People get a cheap house and you should also get the vast majority of people who are accepted investing in their home / neighborhood...

Verulamius

One reason to include don't knows in the 2010 LD switchers is that they are significantly higher (~24%) than 2010C (~10%) or 2010L(~10%).

Theuniondivvie

On topic, Race Relations/Immigration most important issue for 42% in England, 52% (!) in Wales, 27% in Scotland.

Re. Mr Carney's day trip up north, any brave boys care to take a charity bet that he won't (just like George, Dave, Danny et al) make a definitive statement ruling out a currency union?
Iain Gray getting pwned (quelle surprise) over currency on radio earlier: unaware of what currencies they use in the Czech Republic & Slovakia today, "In a sense I agree with that" (that a currency union with the UK would be optimal).

Scrapheap_as_was

TGOHF said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

What will Ed go on PMQs with I wonder....

40% not ruled out by George for millionaires...

This - or bleating for a miners strike apology.

Anything but the present day.

Perhaps Ed will wear a donkey jacket to PMQs.

Charles

Patrick said:

Is Carney going to say: No way Jose?

The SNP assume that they can force England to let them share a currency. I'm not sure that is actually true or in England's own interest. This will be interesting.

It depends on the definition of "share".

The SNP can unilaterally use GBP if they want, and the rUK can't stop them. The SNP can't insist that the rUK gives them (for example) a seat on the BoE MPC.

TGOHF

The tour summed up in 1 ball.