Categories
The polls continue to be terrible for the Tories – politicalbetting.com
The polls continue to be terrible for the Tories – politicalbetting.com
As PB regulars will know we tend not to focus on individual voting polls on PB but to take a batch every three or 4 weeks and see if we can see the trend or some indication that things might change.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
And I also think that EFTA/EEA (while it would probably have won a narrow majority) would not have honoured the spirit of the referendum.
But @Richard_Tyndall is absolutely right that if someone other than May had been in charge - someone with vision and charisma and courage - then it might have been possible to build a Brexit that looked more like Switzerland's relationship with the EU.
And which would have satisfied 80% of Leavers and 40% of Remainers.
Merely sloping back to voting Tory or staying at home would be the more predictable options.
Sure, he would probably have lost Osborne to resignation, but he would have been able to say - "I tried to reform Britain's relationship with the EU. Some in my Cabinet wanted us to accept the deal the EU offered us, but I am recommending to you that Britain leaves the EU and builds a new relationship with the EU from outside the institutions."
I'm confident that he would have won the referendum for Leave by a much wider margin. Farage, and other Brexit purists, would have been relatively sidelined. And Cameron would have been able to remain as PM after the referendum, and negotiate a much more positive, optimistic, deal with the EU.
I think the main source of our problems with Brexit is that the government held a vote on a change it didn't want to happen. If the government that held the referendum on leaving the EU had actually wanted to leave the EU, then I think we'd have been in a better place.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/01/27/nicola-sturgeon-gender-law-opponents-womens-rights-transphobic/
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11683625/Nicola-Sturgeon-opens-door-transgender-rapists-sent-womens-prisons.html
Looking at the Redfield & Wilton data from earlier in the week, among likely voters, 53% of the Conservative 2019 vote remained loyal, 18% were Labour and 14% were Don't Knows (DKs).
The Conservative "Don't Knows" in R&W represent just 39% of the total DK share. The second largest proportion of DKs came from those who didn't vote last time.
Friday night fatigue may have intervened but adding the Conservative DKs to the Conservative score would make the vote shares Labour 45%, Conservative 31% - better but a long way from a triumphant re-election.
That pre-supposes the Conservative DKs will return en masse to the blue camp - it's also possible they won't and may choose to abstain.
We just don't know how big that proportion is.
What this country needs is a patriotic strongman, right?
No not saying that either, as I said I believe in democracy I have just reached a point where I look at problems we have and most western countries have the same and realise fixing those problems can't be done in a democracy unless politicians lie about their intent or we dont go democratic for a few years. Personally I prefer politician do not tarnish their already low credibility further.
so two questions for you and second is only if you say no to the first
1) Do you see the problems in the western countries solvable by any politician being honest and still getting elected?
2) If no politician can get elected on what needs to be done what do you think should be done
1. Yes, certainly as much as in previous eras. The West has its issues but overall it’s in robust health. Politicians lied to us for years and are now about to get their comeuppance.
2. They can, and do in many countries. Democracy is a messy business but it always carries with it the hope and possibility of changing direction.
As an example I would give you the not always popular Emmanuel Macron. He spent his first term pissing off just about every interest group in France by telling them hard truths, and subsequently got re-elected.
Reason he got reelected in fact is it was him or lepen....like choosing between walter the softy and hitler
Easy to forget how many were expecting a Tory win on May 1st 1997.
Even as the polls closed.
Come the election though the Tories will always do better. If I were a pollster I’d just take the raw results and add a few percentage points to Con every time.
Oakervee also discusses convenience to passengers of starting and ending their journeys at Euston or OOC. Euston isn't massively more convenient overall - you get on the Northern Line rather than the Elizabeth Line to go onto your destination. The key point is, if Euston terminus is built, passengers get a choice.
I would say a terminus at Old Oak Common is viable, but not ideal.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/oakervee-review-of-hs2
Macron has achieved quite a bit. But not everything, though he is trying again on pensions. Rather like Blair, it’s too easy to simply say “he did nothing” when the evidence is he’s done rather a lot, particularly on labour law reform.
If you want to create an alternative model, it would be better to start with something new.
Could they prevent a Lab majority? Yes. Will they do so? Very dubious in my view. Not just because of the nature of Mr Sunak and his Cabinet but also because the maths look very tight to me even if the Con DKs all discover a sudden love for Mr Sunak and his High Tax Low Growth Collapsing Services administration
Better still we could add the newly democratic and friendly post-Lukashenko Belarus and post-imperial post-nuclear Russia once Putin’s gone and they grant independence to their many colonies.
Most western states and the uk in particular have 1 problem with 2 ways to deal with it
Tax income does not equal services cost even when services are underfunded.
so either
1) raise taxes and taxing the rich wont be enough you will need to tax everyone more
2) cut the services the state offers
Good luck getting elected on either premise
They are there to do the best job they can of taking a sample of typically about 1000 people now, and scaling that up to the population level to say what people would do NOW.
Predicting how the next 18 months will pan out is a very different (and very speculative) skillset, and pollsters don't claim to be in that game.
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/11/20/youll-hate-it-why-the-norway-option-amounts-to-self-inflicted-subservience-to-the-eu/
In reality, the EU dominates EEA countries, not by intention, but by default. Because they have rejected membership in the EU, but seek access to the Single Market, the EEA members become acquiescent to the EU. Being dependent on the will, even the goodwill, of others is not freedom – it is dominance. By rejecting EU membership but not the Single Market, the associated non-members have become subject to the hegemonic dominance of the EU. These states have unintentionally turned the EU into a hegemon ruling over themselves.
UK median household income: $46.7k
France median household income: $61k
Similar net debt to UK. Vastly better healthcare (I can testify as someone who’s experienced it), virtually free childcare from birth, high quality state education, actual high speed rail lines, nice food, brilliant wine, lovely scenery and climate, pretty towns, affordable houses, good looking people with clothes that fit, and free firewood from your local communal woodland if you can find someone to cut it for you. (But admittedly their plumbers merchants are a complete cartel).
France is doing fine.
https://www.globaldata.com/data-insights/macroeconomic/median-household-income-in-the-united-kingdom/
https://www.globaldata.com/data-insights/macroeconomic/median-household-income-in-france-2010---2021-/
Normal people enjoy a better quality life across very much of the OECD.
Erikson is a fanatical pro-EU advocate who has campaigned tirelessly for Norway to join the EU. That article is actually filled with what are, being generous, misleading claims and being less generous outright falsehoods. The most obvious that Norway pays roughly on a par with EU members - it doesn't, not even by a fraction. Nor is it simply a rule taker. It has full participation in the development of all EU rules and regulations affecting the EEA relationship with the exception of the final vote. And at that point if they don't agree they have a veto.
Quoting Erikson, who betrays his own bigotry by describing Norwegian attitudes to the EU as 'demonised', as a neutral or reliable authority is as bad as quoting Farage as a neutral observer of the UK relationship with the EU.
Switzerland has free movement, but it does not have the requirement - embedded in Maastricht and the EEA treaty - that requires you to treat foreign (EEA) nationals the way you treat your own citizens.
This means that - while a Swiss firm can happily hire a German or Spaniard or Pole - there is no requirement to offer him Housing Benefit. Switzerland therefore uses its healthcare system - and you are obliged to purchase healthcare if you are resident in the country - as an effective way of limiting low wage immigration, while at the same time maximising the ability of Swiss firms to hire talent from around the continent.
When you are a foaming at the mouth loon you do jot get swayed by oven ready deals. Only a punishment Brexit would get you off. And these people are now furious about the betrayal by the Tories of their precious.
I don't deny that this would be the ideal solution for Brexit millionaires, of which PB.com has many.
It's still no UK (or even Spain or Sweden), but it has moved from being dreadful and comparable to Greece or Italy's, to being reasonably free.
Yes I believe most of the west has the same issue but will happily concede the point to you and focus on the uk because I do live there and its important to me therefore.
The point remains the same we have two options, tax a hell of a lot more on everyone or cut services.
I would estimate that if we full fund everything then the tax required would be about double what we currently pay though thats a guess admittedly
So which political party is going to stand on tax more or reduce services and win? answer none
Though having said that the Scots parliament has actually made scottish people far more employable due to the GRC....got a gender imbalance just require some of your scottish staff to self id and sorted
https://www.wrighthassall.co.uk/
See the rioting in France etc.
Switzerland places high barriers to entering their job market - “You are entirely free to work here. Providing you speak the required languages and have a Swiss qualification.”
On your coffee is very very expensive - and served by a Swiss person
High end jobs do not require protection because of the world wide shortage in high end skills.
You quoted a man who has written a whole book about how European* solidarity and integration is a 'moral duty' as if he was a neutral authoritative voice for Norway. I think that says everything we need to know about your attitudes.
*Edited from EU
Tax rises plus spending cuts equal a steadily falling apart and clinically depressed country.
1. French people riot because it is written into their political DNA. In the modern era, they have never not rioted. They rioted during monarchy, Empire, the Fourth Republic, the Common Market and Maastricht. They will riot over train workers' nice pensions even if they are not train workers. They will riot against McDonalds even though they eat more McDonalds than any other Europeans.
2. There is not currently a worldwide shortage in high-end skills. There is a rich-world shortage of low-skilled workers, in fact, but the most productive companies are falling over each other to lay off staff right now. And much as I like to scoff at it, with some probability I buy Leon's shpiel about AI changing the nature of employment in future.
I think I recall force majeure threats to cut them off from the European Electricity Grid, amongst other things.
You are a selfish idiot.
If we cant raise tax to pay for everything in the here and now then the state does less.
If we can get more tax in the here and now to fully fund things fine
The Swiss rules on what benefits EU nationals can get have been in place for a very long time and the EU tends not to mess with them because they know how volatile the Swiss relationship is in the first place.
Phillips O'Brien in The Atlantic
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/01/us-germany-ukraine-tanks-russia-nato/672859/
They say people don’t change once they’re past a certain age, but the number of the Rod Stewart generation who seem to have decided enough is enough, is unusual, to say the least.
Only a small number of Brits have the language skills to be able to work successfully overseas, unless they go long haul to the US or beyond which is less suitable for temporary working abroad and much harder to get a Visa for unskilled work.
If the promise of free movement were more truly reciprocal for unskilled or skilled manual workers in the UK perhaps the forces behind Brexit would have held less sway.
The issue is that half the country wants to be in the EU and half wants to be out. The model allows Norway to be to all intents and purposes in the EU, while formally outside it. The model works as a compromise for domestic political purposes