LAB to win most seats moves record betting high – politicalbetting.com

System

LAB to win most seats moves record betting high – politicalbetting.com

The above is a chart from Smarkets on betting on which party will win the most seats at the next general election. The highlight here is that there has been a considerable negative movement for the Tories particularly since Sunak became the Prime Minister.

Read the full story here

eek

First

Morris_Dancer

It'd be astounding if this did not occur.

Good/decent shot of a majority too, despite the mountain they need to climb.

ydoethur

If they don't win most seats from here, Starmer should commit a ritual eating of a pineapple pizza declaring his undying love for Max Verstappen while @TheScreamingEagles watches.

ydoethur

Morris_Dancer said:

It'd be astounding if this did not occur.

Good/decent shot of a majority too, despite the mountain they need to climb.

I would have thought the value is in the majority, given it's possible but only with a bit of luck in certain places, while if they can't win 80-odd seats from the Tories to become the largest party they've had a dreadful night.

Leon

Tax bill. UGH

noneoftheabove

Leon said:

Tax bill. UGH

Are you not able to non-dom it away with all your travels......

Nigelb

ydoethur said:

Morris_Dancer said:

It'd be astounding if this did not occur.

Good/decent shot of a majority too, despite the mountain they need to climb.

I would have thought the value is in the majority, given it's possible but only with a bit of luck in certain places, while if they can't win 80-odd seats from the Tories to become the largest party they've had a dreadful night.

As would have the rest of the nation.

I'm a long way from being an enthusiast for Labour, but the current lot need an emphatic turfing out.

Nigelb

Leon said:

Tax bill. UGH

The nation thanks you.
For not trying a Zahawi.

Richard_Tyndall

ydoethur said:

If they don't win most seats from here, Starmer should commit a ritual eating of a pineapple pizza declaring his undying love for Max Verstappen while @TheScreamingEagles watches.

Yep. For me the only question in doubt is whether they get an absolute majority or not. Obviously we have to watch out for Black Swan events but they tend to hit the incumbent rather than the opposition.

Mortimer

Leon said:

Tax bill. UGH

I was just looking at the Times 'tax rankings' which aggregates families and includes company corp taxes etc, totted up our own, and realised just how much those who run businesses contribute to the economy....

HYUFD

Ridiculous final 3 paragraphs I am afraid OGH when a Peston poll earlier this week had Sunak with a 16% higher favourable rating than the Conservative party while
Starmer did no better than the Labour Party overall
https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1618387685152022529?t=bRXW6ISYPVD39UzcOe2iMw&s=19

jamesdoyle

Very poor result for the Cons in last night's by-election in Rotherham: went from touching distance of winning a seat in 2021 to fifth of six. LibDems on the opposite trajectory: suggests some former Con voters still can't quite bring themselves to vote Labour, and will look for a reasonable alternative. Maybe the Blue Wall won't hold up any better than the Red Wall for Rishi.

Big_G_NorthWales

Good morning

I expect Starmer to become PM at GE24 and frankly Sunak is caught in the aftermath of the Johnson/Truss disaster, as is the party with its fractious groups, and changing Sunak would seal the conservatives fate for years to come as he is their best chance of mitigating the losses

Zahawi is causing serous damage and his determination to remain in office is disgraceful

I said a few days ago that for the first time I can recall there are more conservative mps I would celebrate losing their seats than labour

However, the problems the UK face are so complex and the solutions so unpalatable I have little confidence Starmer and labour have the answers either

CorrectHorseBattery3

HYUFD said:

Ridiculous final 3 paragraphs I am afraid OGH when a Peston poll earlier this week had Sunak with a 16% higher favourable rating than the Conservative party while
Starmer did no better than the Labour Party overall
https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1618387685152022529?t=bRXW6ISYPVD39UzcOe2iMw&s=19

Yes but Starmer and Labour were nearly positive!

Fishing

Both parties are led by uncharismatic, wooden non-entities with no persuasive vision or political judgement. If it weren't for the Truss premiership, I could see them being roughly equal in the polls. But, as it happens, the Conservatives have not been forgiven for that episode, and are dealing with the fastest fall in living standards in decades, so they are stuck far behind. Their prospects at the next election depend on enough happening between now and then for people to forget the last six months. Possible, but unlikely.

So I think the odds are about right.

Oh, and the Lib Dems are rather overstated at 0.48%. Can I bet against them?

CorrectHorseBattery3

jamesdoyle said:

Very poor result for the Cons in last night's by-election in Rotherham: went from touching distance of winning a seat in 2021 to fifth of six. LibDems on the opposite trajectory: suggests some former Con voters still can't quite bring themselves to vote Labour, and will look for a reasonable alternative. Maybe the Blue Wall won't hold up any better than the Red Wall for Rishi.

If you’re a vaguely liberal, Cameron-era Tory why would you vote for this lot? They literally stand for everything you hate.

I warned about this post 2019. The coalition Johnson built was incredibly weak, the voters in the Blue Wall utterly hated him, they just hated Corbyn more.

Alphabet_Soup

HYUFD said:

Ridiculous final 3 paragraphs I am afraid OGH when a Peston poll earlier this week had Sunak with a 16% higher favourable rating than the Conservative party while
Starmer did no better than the Labour Party overall
https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1618387685152022529?t=bRXW6ISYPVD39UzcOe2iMw&s=19

"You never get a second chance to make a first impression."

HYUFD

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

jamesdoyle said:

Very poor result for the Cons in last night's by-election in Rotherham: went from touching distance of winning a seat in 2021 to fifth of six. LibDems on the opposite trajectory: suggests some former Con voters still can't quite bring themselves to vote Labour, and will look for a reasonable alternative. Maybe the Blue Wall won't hold up any better than the Red Wall for Rishi.

If you’re a vaguely liberal, Cameron-era Tory why would you vote for this lot? They literally stand for everything you hate.

I warned about this post 2019. The coalition Johnson built was incredibly weak, the voters in the Blue Wall utterly hated him, they just hated Corbyn more.

Sunak is far closer to liberal Cameron era politics than Johnson or even May were

HYUFD

jamesdoyle said:

Very poor result for the Cons in last night's by-election in Rotherham: went from touching distance of winning a seat in 2021 to fifth of six. LibDems on the opposite trajectory: suggests some former Con voters still can't quite bring themselves to vote Labour, and will look for a reasonable alternative. Maybe the Blue Wall won't hold up any better than the Red Wall for Rishi.

Since when was Rotherham ever in the Blue Wall?

Alphabet_Soup

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good morning

I expect Starmer to become PM at GE24 and frankly Sunak is caught in the aftermath of the Johnson/Truss disaster, as is the party with its fractious groups, and changing Sunak would seal the conservatives fate for years to come as he is their best chance of mitigating the losses

Zahawi is causing serous damage and his determination to remain in office is disgraceful

I said a few days ago that for the first time I can recall there are more conservative mps I would celebrate losing their seats than labour

However, the problems the UK face are so complex and the solutions so unpalatable I have little confidence Starmer and labour have the answers either

Can't blame Zahawi, though. He paid £5m to wipe the slate clean but people still think it's dirty. What a country to do business in.

IanB2

FPT

Richard_Tyndall said:

IanB2 said:

LostPassword said:

Leon said:

Casino_Royale said:

Taz said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

@Casino_Royale as the resident train infrastructure expert, I have a question. Why aren’t these rail infrastructure projects delivered incrementally in an Agile fashion? Why couldn’t we have already commissioned parts of HS2? Slowly building up to the whole project? From a digital product point of view, the way this works is really odd.

Thanks. I'm not a train infrastructure expert, just experienced in big project delivery, but essentially a railway is a totally integrated system top-to-toe - line speed, track, signalling, rolling stock, timetabling, operations and maintenance regime etc..everything - and you need to fulfil a very robust and difficult safety case every time you open or change anything.

It's like a house of cards: you can't open it until everything is ready - if one thing isn't ready then the house of cards collapses and nothing is ready.

It's about 10 times harder to incrementally improve or upgrade a live operational railway that's already in service rather than greenfield (due to all of the above needing to change as well as the safety case) so it doesn't really make sense to do except in the phases that have already been laid out.

Plus, the HS2 plan IS to commission it in parts. London - Heartlands Junction - Birmingham being the first phase. There was then to be a connection to the Trent Valley section of the WCML so that trains towards Manchester could rejoin the classic route whilst they build the next phase.

I have to applaud the Tories if this story is true. The latest in a proud 60 year tradition of shitbox part-cancelled infrastructure projects. London(ish) already has stub ends of the M1 and M23 and M11 where the completion was cancelled. We talked about the M67 recently across Woodhead where other than a Hyde bypass section the rest was cancelled.

Same with the M62 into Liverpool, the rest of the Newcastle and Glasgow motorway networks etc etc. We had the Cumberland gap in the M6 for years. Hell, even look at the insane lane drop northbound at A1(M) Leeming Bar - the contract for the part-built bit south of the junction being too expensive to alter to paint the missing lane in through the junction.

This is Britain. We have been Fucking Useless at infrastructure since the 70s. Everyone else would have built high speed rail decades earlier. We're going to build an absurdly over-engineered and overly paranoid core that doesn't actually go anywhere and that's it.

Honestly, if there was an emoticon for a round of applause this post would get it.

Absolutely on the nail and no govt gets it at all.

No it doesn't- we are actually very *good* at delivering infrastructure projects in this country; it's the clarity and consistency of government sponsorship that's the issue.

Posts like this boil my piss.

We are hit and miss, aren’t we? Liz Line was late, but it’s great. Heathrow was a shambles now it is quite shiny and lovely in places

Yet where is the new Heathrow runway? And what about railways and airports outside London? They are often a mess

You know more about this HS2 stuff than most on here. What do you think is going on? Kite flying? Genuine chaos in HMG, and panic about cost? Political backstabbing?

The new Heathrow runway doesn't exist, not because Britain's engineers aren't capable of building it, but because the politicians aren't capable of agreeing to build it.

HS2 as a project had an exceptionally long gestation period. Years and years before a shovel was even put in the ground, and then after the shovels were put into the ground the political support wasn't sufficient to see it through, but instead we saw the eastern leg curtailed.

Politicians only see the votes lost from NIMBYs and the money spent from these sorts of projects, not the economic growth that follows from improving infrastructure (which they reason a different politician will claim the credit for anyway).

Suppose that New Labour hadn't delayed on giving the go-ahead for HS2, and it had started and been completed much earlier. We might now be seeing the beneficial consequences in increased economic growth as a result - under a Conservative government. It is these sorts of delays that are one reason why Britain's trend rate of growth is so poor.

My opinion on what is going on is that there really is no money left. The likelihood is that cancelling another part of HS2 is being raised as a necessary cost-cutting measure if HMG don't agree to save/raise some money elsewhere. Perhaps Jeremy Hunt wants to find £xbn to fund nurses pay rises, and this is one of the unpalatable options presented to find that money.

Both the US and UK are beset with short-termism, in both economic and wider policy. Both have majoritarian voting systems, whereas Europe does not. Go figure.

Europe is by no means immune to these white elephants and projects with massive overruns. Someone has already mentioned Berlin Brandenburg Airport which makes Crossrail look like planning and execution perfection. Also in Germany is the Stuttgart 21 rail project which is currently 6 years late and nearly 4 x over budget. Then there is the Flamanville EPR project 11 years late and currently 5 x over budget.

There are plenty of other projects in a similar state with some of them highlighted by the EU Court of Auditors.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/transport/news/europes-transport-mega-projects-over-budget-and-delayed-says-eu-watchdog/

This is by no means a purely Anglophile/Majoritarian issue as you seem to imply.

Yes, but the point isn't about delays or overspends - which affect big public projects the world over, as you say, but about short-termism, lack of forward planning, lack of determined consistency, and frequent chops and changes due to political expediency or changes within or of the administration. Those do seem to be particularly prevalent in the UK and US.

CorrectHorseBattery3

HYUFD said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

jamesdoyle said:

Very poor result for the Cons in last night's by-election in Rotherham: went from touching distance of winning a seat in 2021 to fifth of six. LibDems on the opposite trajectory: suggests some former Con voters still can't quite bring themselves to vote Labour, and will look for a reasonable alternative. Maybe the Blue Wall won't hold up any better than the Red Wall for Rishi.

If you’re a vaguely liberal, Cameron-era Tory why would you vote for this lot? They literally stand for everything you hate.

I warned about this post 2019. The coalition Johnson built was incredibly weak, the voters in the Blue Wall utterly hated him, they just hated Corbyn more.

Sunak is far closer to liberal Cameron era politics than Johnson or even May were

Absolute nonsense.

Sunak is further to the right than Johnson, he’s anti woke and probably the most right wing Tory we’ve had other than Truss, since Thatcher

Mortimer

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good morning

I expect Starmer to become PM at GE24 and frankly Sunak is caught in the aftermath of the Johnson/Truss disaster, as is the party with its fractious groups, and changing Sunak would seal the conservatives fate for years to come as he is their best chance of mitigating the losses

Zahawi is causing serous damage and his determination to remain in office is disgraceful

I said a few days ago that for the first time I can recall there are more conservative mps I would celebrate losing their seats than labour

However, the problems the UK face are so complex and the solutions so unpalatable I have little confidence Starmer and labour have the answers either

Sunak -held hostage by treasury orthodoxy- is actively making things worse.

Time to replace him.

CorrectHorseBattery3

I’ve got some ideas for good spending.

FTTP for all - incredibly cheap and quick to do and would last decades.

Getting as close to 100% landmass mobile coverage as possible by removing restrictions on planning, so masts can be built anywhere they are needed.

Big_G_NorthWales

Mortimer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good morning

I expect Starmer to become PM at GE24 and frankly Sunak is caught in the aftermath of the Johnson/Truss disaster, as is the party with its fractious groups, and changing Sunak would seal the conservatives fate for years to come as he is their best chance of mitigating the losses

Zahawi is causing serous damage and his determination to remain in office is disgraceful

I said a few days ago that for the first time I can recall there are more conservative mps I would celebrate losing their seats than labour

However, the problems the UK face are so complex and the solutions so unpalatable I have little confidence Starmer and labour have the answers either

Sunak -held hostage by treasury orthodoxy- is actively making things worse.

Time to replace him.

Who do you suggest?

malcolmg

Alphabet_Soup said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good morning

I expect Starmer to become PM at GE24 and frankly Sunak is caught in the aftermath of the Johnson/Truss disaster, as is the party with its fractious groups, and changing Sunak would seal the conservatives fate for years to come as he is their best chance of mitigating the losses

Zahawi is causing serous damage and his determination to remain in office is disgraceful

I said a few days ago that for the first time I can recall there are more conservative mps I would celebrate losing their seats than labour

However, the problems the UK face are so complex and the solutions so unpalatable I have little confidence Starmer and labour have the answers either

Can't blame Zahawi, though. He paid £5m to wipe the slate clean but people still think it's dirty. What a country to do business in.

Bad enough the amount of crooks we have without having them run the country. Bit like putting foxes in the chicken coop.

IanB2

Fishing said:

Both parties are led by uncharismatic, wooden non-entities with no persuasive vision or political judgement. If it weren't for the Truss premiership, I could see them being roughly equal in the polls. But, as it happens, the Conservatives have not been forgiven for that episode, and are dealing with the fastest fall in living standards in decades, so they are stuck far behind. Their prospects at the next election depend on enough happening between now and then for people to forget the last six months. Possible, but unlikely.

So I think the odds are about right.

Oh, and the Lib Dems are rather overstated at 0.48%. Can I bet against them?

If you have deep pockets - a lay at 190 on BFE. Which probably is free money, but such a return won't make the moneysavingexpert shortlist...

Conventional wisdom would suggest now is the time to lay Labour on most seats? Simply because as the campaign approaches there will be likely people who think it might not happen, or bet according to their politics rather than the real odds?

OldKingCole

jamesdoyle said:

Very poor result for the Cons in last night's by-election in Rotherham: went from touching distance of winning a seat in 2021 to fifth of six. LibDems on the opposite trajectory: suggests some former Con voters still can't quite bring themselves to vote Labour, and will look for a reasonable alternative. Maybe the Blue Wall won't hold up any better than the Red Wall for Rishi.

I dream of the first GE I remember, and the slogan ‘Time to have the Liberals back’.

All went extremely pear-shaped of course!

JosiasJessop

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

I’ve got some ideas for good spending.

FTTP for all - incredibly cheap and quick to do and would last decades.

Getting as close to 100% landmass mobile coverage as possible by removing restrictions on planning, so masts can be built anywhere they are needed.

Is that actually much of a problem nowadays, either in coverage or planning?

We have poor Vodafone coverage in our house, but other networks are fine. When I'm out and about, I get good signal most of the time (for calls mostly, not 5G).

Selebian

Fishing said:

Both parties are led by uncharismatic, wooden non-entities with no persuasive vision or political judgement. If it weren't for the Truss premiership, I could see them being roughly equal in the polls. But, as it happens, the Conservatives have not been forgiven for that episode, and are dealing with the fastest fall in living standards in decades, so they are stuck far behind. Their prospects at the next election depend on enough happening between now and then for people to forget the last six months. Possible, but unlikely.

So I think the odds are about right.

Oh, and the Lib Dems are rather overstated at 0.48%. Can I bet against them?

Well, you can lay them at 210 (the implied 0.48%) but only for £47 on Smarkets. And not a great return unless there's an early GE (for a load of money tied up).

RochdalePioneers

IanB2 said:

FPT

Richard_Tyndall said:

IanB2 said:

LostPassword said:

Leon said:

Casino_Royale said:

Taz said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

@Casino_Royale as the resident train infrastructure expert, I have a question. Why aren’t these rail infrastructure projects delivered incrementally in an Agile fashion? Why couldn’t we have already commissioned parts of HS2? Slowly building up to the whole project? From a digital product point of view, the way this works is really odd.

Thanks. I'm not a train infrastructure expert, just experienced in big project delivery, but essentially a railway is a totally integrated system top-to-toe - line speed, track, signalling, rolling stock, timetabling, operations and maintenance regime etc..everything - and you need to fulfil a very robust and difficult safety case every time you open or change anything.

It's like a house of cards: you can't open it until everything is ready - if one thing isn't ready then the house of cards collapses and nothing is ready.

It's about 10 times harder to incrementally improve or upgrade a live operational railway that's already in service rather than greenfield (due to all of the above needing to change as well as the safety case) so it doesn't really make sense to do except in the phases that have already been laid out.

Plus, the HS2 plan IS to commission it in parts. London - Heartlands Junction - Birmingham being the first phase. There was then to be a connection to the Trent Valley section of the WCML so that trains towards Manchester could rejoin the classic route whilst they build the next phase.

I have to applaud the Tories if this story is true. The latest in a proud 60 year tradition of shitbox part-cancelled infrastructure projects. London(ish) already has stub ends of the M1 and M23 and M11 where the completion was cancelled. We talked about the M67 recently across Woodhead where other than a Hyde bypass section the rest was cancelled.

Same with the M62 into Liverpool, the rest of the Newcastle and Glasgow motorway networks etc etc. We had the Cumberland gap in the M6 for years. Hell, even look at the insane lane drop northbound at A1(M) Leeming Bar - the contract for the part-built bit south of the junction being too expensive to alter to paint the missing lane in through the junction.

This is Britain. We have been Fucking Useless at infrastructure since the 70s. Everyone else would have built high speed rail decades earlier. We're going to build an absurdly over-engineered and overly paranoid core that doesn't actually go anywhere and that's it.

Honestly, if there was an emoticon for a round of applause this post would get it.

Absolutely on the nail and no govt gets it at all.

No it doesn't- we are actually very *good* at delivering infrastructure projects in this country; it's the clarity and consistency of government sponsorship that's the issue.

Posts like this boil my piss.

We are hit and miss, aren’t we? Liz Line was late, but it’s great. Heathrow was a shambles now it is quite shiny and lovely in places

Yet where is the new Heathrow runway? And what about railways and airports outside London? They are often a mess

You know more about this HS2 stuff than most on here. What do you think is going on? Kite flying? Genuine chaos in HMG, and panic about cost? Political backstabbing?

The new Heathrow runway doesn't exist, not because Britain's engineers aren't capable of building it, but because the politicians aren't capable of agreeing to build it.

HS2 as a project had an exceptionally long gestation period. Years and years before a shovel was even put in the ground, and then after the shovels were put into the ground the political support wasn't sufficient to see it through, but instead we saw the eastern leg curtailed.

Politicians only see the votes lost from NIMBYs and the money spent from these sorts of projects, not the economic growth that follows from improving infrastructure (which they reason a different politician will claim the credit for anyway).

Suppose that New Labour hadn't delayed on giving the go-ahead for HS2, and it had started and been completed much earlier. We might now be seeing the beneficial consequences in increased economic growth as a result - under a Conservative government. It is these sorts of delays that are one reason why Britain's trend rate of growth is so poor.

My opinion on what is going on is that there really is no money left. The likelihood is that cancelling another part of HS2 is being raised as a necessary cost-cutting measure if HMG don't agree to save/raise some money elsewhere. Perhaps Jeremy Hunt wants to find £xbn to fund nurses pay rises, and this is one of the unpalatable options presented to find that money.

Both the US and UK are beset with short-termism, in both economic and wider policy. Both have majoritarian voting systems, whereas Europe does not. Go figure.

Europe is by no means immune to these white elephants and projects with massive overruns. Someone has already mentioned Berlin Brandenburg Airport which makes Crossrail look like planning and execution perfection. Also in Germany is the Stuttgart 21 rail project which is currently 6 years late and nearly 4 x over budget. Then there is the Flamanville EPR project 11 years late and currently 5 x over budget.

There are plenty of other projects in a similar state with some of them highlighted by the EU Court of Auditors.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/transport/news/europes-transport-mega-projects-over-budget-and-delayed-says-eu-watchdog/

This is by no means a purely Anglophile/Majoritarian issue as you seem to imply.

Yes, but the point isn't about delays or overspends - which affect big public projects the world over, as you say, but about short-termism, lack of forward planning, lack of determined consistency, and frequent chops and changes due to political expediency or changes within or of the administration. Those do seem to be particularly prevalent in the UK and US.

Berlin Brandenburg may have been very late and overbudget. But it has been built. Is open. Which is more than you can say for Heathrow's 3rd Runway.

Mortimer

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mortimer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good morning

I expect Starmer to become PM at GE24 and frankly Sunak is caught in the aftermath of the Johnson/Truss disaster, as is the party with its fractious groups, and changing Sunak would seal the conservatives fate for years to come as he is their best chance of mitigating the losses

Zahawi is causing serous damage and his determination to remain in office is disgraceful

I said a few days ago that for the first time I can recall there are more conservative mps I would celebrate losing their seats than labour

However, the problems the UK face are so complex and the solutions so unpalatable I have little confidence Starmer and labour have the answers either

Sunak -held hostage by treasury orthodoxy- is actively making things worse.

Time to replace him.

Who do you suggest?

Mrs E. Truss from Norfolk has some bright ideas about growth....

Richard_Tyndall

IanB2 said:

FPT

Richard_Tyndall said:

IanB2 said:

LostPassword said:

Leon said:

Casino_Royale said:

Taz said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

@Casino_Royale as the resident train infrastructure expert, I have a question. Why aren’t these rail infrastructure projects delivered incrementally in an Agile fashion? Why couldn’t we have already commissioned parts of HS2? Slowly building up to the whole project? From a digital product point of view, the way this works is really odd.

Thanks. I'm not a train infrastructure expert, just experienced in big project delivery, but essentially a railway is a totally integrated system top-to-toe - line speed, track, signalling, rolling stock, timetabling, operations and maintenance regime etc..everything - and you need to fulfil a very robust and difficult safety case every time you open or change anything.

It's like a house of cards: you can't open it until everything is ready - if one thing isn't ready then the house of cards collapses and nothing is ready.

It's about 10 times harder to incrementally improve or upgrade a live operational railway that's already in service rather than greenfield (due to all of the above needing to change as well as the safety case) so it doesn't really make sense to do except in the phases that have already been laid out.

Plus, the HS2 plan IS to commission it in parts. London - Heartlands Junction - Birmingham being the first phase. There was then to be a connection to the Trent Valley section of the WCML so that trains towards Manchester could rejoin the classic route whilst they build the next phase.

I have to applaud the Tories if this story is true. The latest in a proud 60 year tradition of shitbox part-cancelled infrastructure projects. London(ish) already has stub ends of the M1 and M23 and M11 where the completion was cancelled. We talked about the M67 recently across Woodhead where other than a Hyde bypass section the rest was cancelled.

Same with the M62 into Liverpool, the rest of the Newcastle and Glasgow motorway networks etc etc. We had the Cumberland gap in the M6 for years. Hell, even look at the insane lane drop northbound at A1(M) Leeming Bar - the contract for the part-built bit south of the junction being too expensive to alter to paint the missing lane in through the junction.

This is Britain. We have been Fucking Useless at infrastructure since the 70s. Everyone else would have built high speed rail decades earlier. We're going to build an absurdly over-engineered and overly paranoid core that doesn't actually go anywhere and that's it.

Honestly, if there was an emoticon for a round of applause this post would get it.

Absolutely on the nail and no govt gets it at all.

No it doesn't- we are actually very *good* at delivering infrastructure projects in this country; it's the clarity and consistency of government sponsorship that's the issue.

Posts like this boil my piss.

We are hit and miss, aren’t we? Liz Line was late, but it’s great. Heathrow was a shambles now it is quite shiny and lovely in places

Yet where is the new Heathrow runway? And what about railways and airports outside London? They are often a mess

You know more about this HS2 stuff than most on here. What do you think is going on? Kite flying? Genuine chaos in HMG, and panic about cost? Political backstabbing?

The new Heathrow runway doesn't exist, not because Britain's engineers aren't capable of building it, but because the politicians aren't capable of agreeing to build it.

HS2 as a project had an exceptionally long gestation period. Years and years before a shovel was even put in the ground, and then after the shovels were put into the ground the political support wasn't sufficient to see it through, but instead we saw the eastern leg curtailed.

Politicians only see the votes lost from NIMBYs and the money spent from these sorts of projects, not the economic growth that follows from improving infrastructure (which they reason a different politician will claim the credit for anyway).

Suppose that New Labour hadn't delayed on giving the go-ahead for HS2, and it had started and been completed much earlier. We might now be seeing the beneficial consequences in increased economic growth as a result - under a Conservative government. It is these sorts of delays that are one reason why Britain's trend rate of growth is so poor.

My opinion on what is going on is that there really is no money left. The likelihood is that cancelling another part of HS2 is being raised as a necessary cost-cutting measure if HMG don't agree to save/raise some money elsewhere. Perhaps Jeremy Hunt wants to find £xbn to fund nurses pay rises, and this is one of the unpalatable options presented to find that money.

Both the US and UK are beset with short-termism, in both economic and wider policy. Both have majoritarian voting systems, whereas Europe does not. Go figure.

Europe is by no means immune to these white elephants and projects with massive overruns. Someone has already mentioned Berlin Brandenburg Airport which makes Crossrail look like planning and execution perfection. Also in Germany is the Stuttgart 21 rail project which is currently 6 years late and nearly 4 x over budget. Then there is the Flamanville EPR project 11 years late and currently 5 x over budget.

There are plenty of other projects in a similar state with some of them highlighted by the EU Court of Auditors.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/transport/news/europes-transport-mega-projects-over-budget-and-delayed-says-eu-watchdog/

This is by no means a purely Anglophile/Majoritarian issue as you seem to imply.

Yes, but the point isn't about delays or overspends - which affect big public projects the world over, as you say, but about short-termism, lack of forward planning, lack of determined consistency, and frequent chops and changes due to political expediency or changes within or of the administration. Those do seem to be particularly prevalent in the UK and US.

Many of which are cited in those instances I used as well.

Dura_Ace

Mortimer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good morning

I expect Starmer to become PM at GE24 and frankly Sunak is caught in the aftermath of the Johnson/Truss disaster, as is the party with its fractious groups, and changing Sunak would seal the conservatives fate for years to come as he is their best chance of mitigating the losses

Zahawi is causing serous damage and his determination to remain in office is disgraceful

I said a few days ago that for the first time I can recall there are more conservative mps I would celebrate losing their seats than labour

However, the problems the UK face are so complex and the solutions so unpalatable I have little confidence Starmer and labour have the answers either

Sunak -held hostage by treasury orthodoxy- is actively making things worse.

Time to replace him.

If Zahawi becomes PM, the national self-esteem is low that we'd feel like we deserve it.

Stuartinromford

Mortimer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good morning

I expect Starmer to become PM at GE24 and frankly Sunak is caught in the aftermath of the Johnson/Truss disaster, as is the party with its fractious groups, and changing Sunak would seal the conservatives fate for years to come as he is their best chance of mitigating the losses

Zahawi is causing serous damage and his determination to remain in office is disgraceful

I said a few days ago that for the first time I can recall there are more conservative mps I would celebrate losing their seats than labour

However, the problems the UK face are so complex and the solutions so unpalatable I have little confidence Starmer and labour have the answers either

Sunak -held hostage by treasury orthodoxy- is actively making things worse.

Time to replace him.

What makes you think Sunak is a
hostage? It seems pretty plausible to think that he believes this stuff. He's the one who wants to cut the basic rate of income tax to 16 %.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62373675

Luckyguy1983

Dura_Ace said:

Mortimer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good morning

I expect Starmer to become PM at GE24 and frankly Sunak is caught in the aftermath of the Johnson/Truss disaster, as is the party with its fractious groups, and changing Sunak would seal the conservatives fate for years to come as he is their best chance of mitigating the losses

Zahawi is causing serous damage and his determination to remain in office is disgraceful

I said a few days ago that for the first time I can recall there are more conservative mps I would celebrate losing their seats than labour

However, the problems the UK face are so complex and the solutions so unpalatable I have little confidence Starmer and labour have the answers either

Sunak -held hostage by treasury orthodoxy- is actively making things worse.

Time to replace him.

If Zahawi becomes PM, the national self-esteem is low that we'd feel like we deserve it.

If he was even a 5th as good at enriching the country as he is at enriching himself, I'd vote for him in a heartbeat.

Scott_xP

@MrHarryCole: Understand the Chancellor will shortly be clarifying that he has never received a penalty from HMRC https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1618913917711048707

Luckyguy1983

Mortimer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mortimer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good morning

I expect Starmer to become PM at GE24 and frankly Sunak is caught in the aftermath of the Johnson/Truss disaster, as is the party with its fractious groups, and changing Sunak would seal the conservatives fate for years to come as he is their best chance of mitigating the losses

Zahawi is causing serous damage and his determination to remain in office is disgraceful

I said a few days ago that for the first time I can recall there are more conservative mps I would celebrate losing their seats than labour

However, the problems the UK face are so complex and the solutions so unpalatable I have little confidence Starmer and labour have the answers either

Sunak -held hostage by treasury orthodoxy- is actively making things worse.

Time to replace him.

Who do you suggest?

Mrs E. Truss from Norfolk has some bright ideas about growth....

If Jeremy Hunt acheived any growth, he'd be concerned and visit a specialist with a view to having it removed.

CorrectHorseBattery3

Anyone who backed Liz Truss on here surely would be wise to be more open to criticism just as I was with Corbyn

eek

Alphabet_Soup said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good morning

I expect Starmer to become PM at GE24 and frankly Sunak is caught in the aftermath of the Johnson/Truss disaster, as is the party with its fractious groups, and changing Sunak would seal the conservatives fate for years to come as he is their best chance of mitigating the losses

Zahawi is causing serous damage and his determination to remain in office is disgraceful

I said a few days ago that for the first time I can recall there are more conservative mps I would celebrate losing their seats than labour

However, the problems the UK face are so complex and the solutions so unpalatable I have little confidence Starmer and labour have the answers either

Can't blame Zahawi, though. He paid £5m to wipe the slate clean but people still think it's dirty. What a country to do business in.

There appears to be two other sales of Yougov shares which are time expired on which appropriate tax has not been paid.

TheScreamingEagles

Mortimer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mortimer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good morning

I expect Starmer to become PM at GE24 and frankly Sunak is caught in the aftermath of the Johnson/Truss disaster, as is the party with its fractious groups, and changing Sunak would seal the conservatives fate for years to come as he is their best chance of mitigating the losses

Zahawi is causing serous damage and his determination to remain in office is disgraceful

I said a few days ago that for the first time I can recall there are more conservative mps I would celebrate losing their seats than labour

However, the problems the UK face are so complex and the solutions so unpalatable I have little confidence Starmer and labour have the answers either

Sunak -held hostage by treasury orthodoxy- is actively making things worse.

Time to replace him.

Who do you suggest?

Mrs E. Truss from Norfolk has some bright ideas about growth....

She also has some great ideas about how to crash the economy.

OldKingCole

Luckyguy1983 said:

Mortimer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mortimer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good morning

I expect Starmer to become PM at GE24 and frankly Sunak is caught in the aftermath of the Johnson/Truss disaster, as is the party with its fractious groups, and changing Sunak would seal the conservatives fate for years to come as he is their best chance of mitigating the losses

Zahawi is causing serous damage and his determination to remain in office is disgraceful

I said a few days ago that for the first time I can recall there are more conservative mps I would celebrate losing their seats than labour

However, the problems the UK face are so complex and the solutions so unpalatable I have little confidence Starmer and labour have the answers either

Sunak -held hostage by treasury orthodoxy- is actively making things worse.

Time to replace him.

Who do you suggest?

Mrs E. Truss from Norfolk has some bright ideas about growth....

If Jeremy Hunt acheived any growth, he'd be concerned and visit a specialist with a view to having it removed.

Privately, of course!

Theuniondivvie

Alphabet_Soup said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good morning

I expect Starmer to become PM at GE24 and frankly Sunak is caught in the aftermath of the Johnson/Truss disaster, as is the party with its fractious groups, and changing Sunak would seal the conservatives fate for years to come as he is their best chance of mitigating the losses

Zahawi is causing serous damage and his determination to remain in office is disgraceful

I said a few days ago that for the first time I can recall there are more conservative mps I would celebrate losing their seats than labour

However, the problems the UK face are so complex and the solutions so unpalatable I have little confidence Starmer and labour have the answers either

Can't blame Zahawi, though. He paid £5m to wipe the slate clean but people still think it's dirty. What a country to do business in.

Astounding that his modesty about his slate wiping went to the lengths of threatening folk with legal action if they revealed it. What a guy!

TheScreamingEagles

The cricket is on.

ODIs and T20s might be the only format we play the Saffers at.

Barnesian

The momentum has been with Labour since the 2019 GE.

There is a Truss blip but, standing back, the Tory decline and Labour accent is relentless.

Dura_Ace

Mortimer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mortimer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good morning

I expect Starmer to become PM at GE24 and frankly Sunak is caught in the aftermath of the Johnson/Truss disaster, as is the party with its fractious groups, and changing Sunak would seal the conservatives fate for years to come as he is their best chance of mitigating the losses

Zahawi is causing serous damage and his determination to remain in office is disgraceful

I said a few days ago that for the first time I can recall there are more conservative mps I would celebrate losing their seats than labour

However, the problems the UK face are so complex and the solutions so unpalatable I have little confidence Starmer and labour have the answers either

Sunak -held hostage by treasury orthodoxy- is actively making things worse.

Time to replace him.

Who do you suggest?

Mrs E. Truss from Norfolk has some bright ideas about growth....

At least Jizzy Lizzy's six weeks of glory were unpredictable and entertaining. Who can forget the magischer Realismus of the fracking vote? With this lot, it's like blah, blah, blah, we're running the fucking country, blah, blah, blah

Selebian

Mortimer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mortimer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good morning

I expect Starmer to become PM at GE24 and frankly Sunak is caught in the aftermath of the Johnson/Truss disaster, as is the party with its fractious groups, and changing Sunak would seal the conservatives fate for years to come as he is their best chance of mitigating the losses

Zahawi is causing serous damage and his determination to remain in office is disgraceful

I said a few days ago that for the first time I can recall there are more conservative mps I would celebrate losing their seats than labour

However, the problems the UK face are so complex and the solutions so unpalatable I have little confidence Starmer and labour have the answers either

Sunak -held hostage by treasury orthodoxy- is actively making things worse.

Time to replace him.

Who do you suggest?

Mrs E. Truss from Norfolk has some bright ideas about growth....

Does she? Why didn't she share any of them during her premiership?

StuartDickson

London
Lab 59%
Con 13%
LD 12%
Ref 11%
Grn 5%

Rest of South
Lab 51%
Con 28%
LD 10%
Grn 5%
Ref 4%

Midlands and Wales
Lab 48%
Con 25%
LD 10%
Ref 7%
Grn 5%
PC 2%

North
Lab 55%
Con 18%
Ref 10%
Grn 6%
LD 4%

Scotland
SNP 57%
Lab 21%
Con 13%
LD 4%
Grn 2%
Ref 2%

(PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,270; 24 January)

Sandpit

80 seats need to directly change hands for Lab most seats, which leaves them on around 280.

Given there’s likely two years to wait, and with inflation at 10%, I think the value is on the 24% chance, rather than the 77% chance.

IMO, the biggest unknown is Scotland. It’s possible that the SNP have over-reached themselves by standing up for the rapists.

Luckyguy1983

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mortimer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good morning

I expect Starmer to become PM at GE24 and frankly Sunak is caught in the aftermath of the Johnson/Truss disaster, as is the party with its fractious groups, and changing Sunak would seal the conservatives fate for years to come as he is their best chance of mitigating the losses

Zahawi is causing serous damage and his determination to remain in office is disgraceful

I said a few days ago that for the first time I can recall there are more conservative mps I would celebrate losing their seats than labour

However, the problems the UK face are so complex and the solutions so unpalatable I have little confidence Starmer and labour have the answers either

Sunak -held hostage by treasury orthodoxy- is actively making things worse.

Time to replace him.

Who do you suggest?

Mrs E. Truss from Norfolk has some bright ideas about growth....

She also has some great ideas about how to crash the economy.

That would be the economy that grew during her time in office and is now shrinking.

AlistairM

FPT talking about tanks.

One shouldn't forget that Ukraine will shortly be getting quite about 50 Bradley fighting vehicles. Whilst not a MBT they can go as fast as an Abrams and have tank killing ability. They are fitted out with a missile launcher that can take out most tanks at 4km range, although they have to be stationary to fire it. I suspect this will already outclass most of what the Russians have.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M2_Bradley

If I were Ukraine I would just hold the line for now whilst forming a new army with all the new equipment. Then when ready throw that against a key strategic target that will enable a breakthrough. For example if Ukraine pushes through to Mariupol then Crimea would be completely cut off from Russia.

TheScreamingEagles

It’s sloppy seconds Sean.

Sean Dyche is set to be named Everton’s manager after Marcelo Bielsa told the club he would only take full charge in the summer.

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2023/jan/27/sean-dyche-everton-manager-marcelo-bielsa-rejects-mid-season-job

Luckyguy1983

Dura_Ace said:

Mortimer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mortimer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good morning

I expect Starmer to become PM at GE24 and frankly Sunak is caught in the aftermath of the Johnson/Truss disaster, as is the party with its fractious groups, and changing Sunak would seal the conservatives fate for years to come as he is their best chance of mitigating the losses

Zahawi is causing serous damage and his determination to remain in office is disgraceful

I said a few days ago that for the first time I can recall there are more conservative mps I would celebrate losing their seats than labour

However, the problems the UK face are so complex and the solutions so unpalatable I have little confidence Starmer and labour have the answers either

Sunak -held hostage by treasury orthodoxy- is actively making things worse.

Time to replace him.

Who do you suggest?

Mrs E. Truss from Norfolk has some bright ideas about growth....

At least Jizzy Lizzy's six weeks of glory were unpredictable and entertaining. Who can forget the magischer Realismus of the fracking vote? With this lot, it's like blah, blah, blah, we're running the fucking country, blah, blah, blah

You forgot to add 'into the ground'

Selebian

Barnesian said:

The momentum has been with Labour since the 2019 GE.

There is a Truss blip but, standing back, the Tory decline and Labour accent is relentless.

Strangely enough, around the same point that the Momentum left (or was marginalised in) Labour

kinabalu

Leon said:

Tax bill. UGH

Contribution to society as a whole in the country you say you love. Pay with a smile.

Big_G_NorthWales

Mortimer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mortimer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good morning

I expect Starmer to become PM at GE24 and frankly Sunak is caught in the aftermath of the Johnson/Truss disaster, as is the party with its fractious groups, and changing Sunak would seal the conservatives fate for years to come as he is their best chance of mitigating the losses

Zahawi is causing serous damage and his determination to remain in office is disgraceful

I said a few days ago that for the first time I can recall there are more conservative mps I would celebrate losing their seats than labour

However, the problems the UK face are so complex and the solutions so unpalatable I have little confidence Starmer and labour have the answers either

Sunak -held hostage by treasury orthodoxy- is actively making things worse.

Time to replace him.

Who do you suggest?

Mrs E. Truss from Norfolk has some bright ideas about growth....

And she crashed the economy and Sunak/ Hunt have had to take action to stabilise the markets

HYUFD

StuartDickson said:

London
Lab 59%
Con 13%
LD 12%
Ref 11%
Grn 5%

Rest of South
Lab 51%
Con 28%
LD 10%
Grn 5%
Ref 4%

Midlands and Wales
Lab 48%
Con 25%
LD 10%
Ref 7%
Grn 5%
PC 2%

North
Lab 55%
Con 18%
Ref 10%
Grn 6%
LD 4%

Scotland
SNP 57%
Lab 21%
Con 13%
LD 4%
Grn 2%
Ref 2%

(PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,270; 24 January)

Are we really supposed to believe RefUK are on 11% in London and 10% in the North?

TheScreamingEagles

Luckyguy1983 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mortimer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good morning

I expect Starmer to become PM at GE24 and frankly Sunak is caught in the aftermath of the Johnson/Truss disaster, as is the party with its fractious groups, and changing Sunak would seal the conservatives fate for years to come as he is their best chance of mitigating the losses

Zahawi is causing serous damage and his determination to remain in office is disgraceful

I said a few days ago that for the first time I can recall there are more conservative mps I would celebrate losing their seats than labour

However, the problems the UK face are so complex and the solutions so unpalatable I have little confidence Starmer and labour have the answers either

Sunak -held hostage by treasury orthodoxy- is actively making things worse.

Time to replace him.

Who do you suggest?

Mrs E. Truss from Norfolk has some bright ideas about growth....

She also has some great ideas about how to crash the economy.

That would be the economy that grew during her time in office and is now shrinking.

The BoE intervention helped.

Appointing Remoaner Hunt helped.

kinabalu

Barnesian said:

The momentum has been with Labour since the 2019 GE.

There is a Truss blip but, standing back, the Tory decline and Labour accent is relentless.

Unwinding of the untenable 2019 Boris/Brexit coalition?

StuartDickson

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

London
Lab 59%
Con 13%
LD 12%
Ref 11%
Grn 5%

Rest of South
Lab 51%
Con 28%
LD 10%
Grn 5%
Ref 4%

Midlands and Wales
Lab 48%
Con 25%
LD 10%
Ref 7%
Grn 5%
PC 2%

North
Lab 55%
Con 18%
Ref 10%
Grn 6%
LD 4%

Scotland
SNP 57%
Lab 21%
Con 13%
LD 4%
Grn 2%
Ref 2%

(PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,270; 24 January)

Are we really supposed to believe RefUK are on 11% in London and 10% in the North?

No. Nearly all of them will vote Con on polling day. They’re just pissed off and want people to know it.

Ditto nearly all Grn will vote Lab or LD in E&W and SNP in S.

mickydroy

Sandpit said:

80 seats need to directly change hands for Lab most seats, which leaves them on around 280.

Given there’s likely two years to wait, and with inflation at 10%, I think the value is on the 24% chance, rather than the 77% chance.

IMO, the biggest unknown is Scotland. It’s possible that the SNP have over-reached themselves by standing up for the rapists.

Sandpit said:

80 seats need to directly change hands for Lab most seats, which leaves them on around 280.

Given there’s likely two years to wait, and with inflation at 10%, I think the value is on the 24% chance, rather than the 77% chance.

IMO, the biggest unknown is Scotland. It’s possible that the SNP have over-reached themselves by standing up for the rapists.

I am inclined to agree, it's not what I want to happen, but at the moment you can get 10/3 with William Hill, tories most seats, that price is starting to get very tempting, once the Tory propaganda machine moves into full overdrive, they have two TV channels that are broadly sympathetic to them, let alone the written press, the polls will surely close

Luckyguy1983

TheScreamingEagles said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mortimer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good morning

I expect Starmer to become PM at GE24 and frankly Sunak is caught in the aftermath of the Johnson/Truss disaster, as is the party with its fractious groups, and changing Sunak would seal the conservatives fate for years to come as he is their best chance of mitigating the losses

Zahawi is causing serous damage and his determination to remain in office is disgraceful

I said a few days ago that for the first time I can recall there are more conservative mps I would celebrate losing their seats than labour

However, the problems the UK face are so complex and the solutions so unpalatable I have little confidence Starmer and labour have the answers either

Sunak -held hostage by treasury orthodoxy- is actively making things worse.

Time to replace him.

Who do you suggest?

Mrs E. Truss from Norfolk has some bright ideas about growth....

She also has some great ideas about how to crash the economy.

That would be the economy that grew during her time in office and is now shrinking.

The BoE intervention helped.

Of course it did - the bond fire sale was profoundly damaging, stopping it and buying some back provided inevitable respite. A bit cheeky calling it an 'intervention' though. Like stopping punching someone in the face for five minutes is an intervention on behalf of their facial wellbeing.

Malmesbury

AlistairM said:

FPT talking about tanks.

One shouldn't forget that Ukraine will shortly be getting quite about 50 Bradley fighting vehicles. Whilst not a MBT they can go as fast as an Abrams and have tank killing ability. They are fitted out with a missile launcher that can take out most tanks at 4km range, although they have to be stationary to fire it. I suspect this will already outclass most of what the Russians have.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M2_Bradley

If I were Ukraine I would just hold the line for now whilst forming a new army with all the new equipment. Then when ready throw that against a key strategic target that will enable a breakthrough. For example if Ukraine pushes through to Mariupol then Crimea would be completely cut off from Russia.

During the First Gulf War, some Bradley gunners noticed that the “BMPs” they were engaging with the cannon were proving a bit hard to kill.

In daylight they found out why - they’d been killing tanks.

The same kind of tanks the Russians are using in Ukraine.

Scott_xP

@Gaylussite: It’s 2065. HS2 was finally delivered, but it’s now a coach lane on the M1 that terminates at Stevenage. It cost £57bn to build.

LostPassword

JosiasJessop said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

I’ve got some ideas for good spending.

FTTP for all - incredibly cheap and quick to do and would last decades.

Getting as close to 100% landmass mobile coverage as possible by removing restrictions on planning, so masts can be built anywhere they are needed.

Is that actually much of a problem nowadays, either in coverage or planning?

We have poor Vodafone coverage in our house, but other networks are fine. When I'm out and about, I get good signal most of the time (for calls mostly, not 5G).

The biggest problem I've experienced with mobile coverage is not geographical coverage in rural areas, but capacity in urban areas. The worst experience I've had is on public transport in London when several trains worth of people are all trying to connect through a few masts around Clapham Junction, or Peckham Rye, or wherever.

Sandpit

Mortimer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good morning

I expect Starmer to become PM at GE24 and frankly Sunak is caught in the aftermath of the Johnson/Truss disaster, as is the party with its fractious groups, and changing Sunak would seal the conservatives fate for years to come as he is their best chance of mitigating the losses

Zahawi is causing serous damage and his determination to remain in office is disgraceful

I said a few days ago that for the first time I can recall there are more conservative mps I would celebrate losing their seats than labour

However, the problems the UK face are so complex and the solutions so unpalatable I have little confidence Starmer and labour have the answers either

Sunak -held hostage by treasury orthodoxy- is actively making things worse.

Time to replace him.

Not quite sure that 4 PMs inside 12 months is good, but yes Sunak needs to turn the Treasury and the No.10 operation upside-down and inside-out.

Replace it with a much smaller group of advisors, charged with maximising economic growth for the lowest cost. Talk to businesses and key public service managers on a daily basis.

We saw a great example on here yesterday, that there’s a shortage of radiographers, leading to expensive MRI machines being unstaffed and patients blocking beds waiting for scans. Get a worldwide campaign running to recruit radiographers, and have the NHS and Home Office work together to fast track visas and recognition of qualifications.

This is the sort of stuff the UK did really well during the pandemic, identifying roadblocks and moving them out of the way as quickly as possible. That same attitude needs to be bought back to government.

Chelyabinsk

AlistairM said:

One shouldn't forget that Ukraine will shortly be getting quite about 50 Bradley fighting vehicles. Whilst not a MBT they can go as fast as an Abrams and have tank killing ability. They are fitted out with a missile launcher that can take out most tanks at 4km range, although they have to be stationary to fire it.

"In summation, what you have before you is a troop transport that can't carry troops, a reconnaissance vehicle that's too conspicuous to do reconnaissance, and a quasi-tank that has less armor than a snow-blower, but carries enough ammo to take out half of D.C."

JosiasJessop

Way off-topic: NASA testing a rotating detonation rocket engine (RDRE)

https://twitter.com/DrChrisCombs/status/1618615449494917129

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rotating_detonation_engine

Driver

TheScreamingEagles said:

The cricket is on.

ODIs and T20s might be the only format we play the Saffers at.

Apart from the three Tests last August/September?

Alphabet_Soup

LostPassword said:

JosiasJessop said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

I’ve got some ideas for good spending.

FTTP for all - incredibly cheap and quick to do and would last decades.

Getting as close to 100% landmass mobile coverage as possible by removing restrictions on planning, so masts can be built anywhere they are needed.

Is that actually much of a problem nowadays, either in coverage or planning?

We have poor Vodafone coverage in our house, but other networks are fine. When I'm out and about, I get good signal most of the time (for calls mostly, not 5G).

The biggest problem I've experienced with mobile coverage is not geographical coverage in rural areas, but capacity in urban areas. The worst experience I've had is on public transport in London when several trains worth of people are all trying to connect through a few masts around Clapham Junction, or Peckham Rye, or wherever.

Try putting on a bet at Lord's during a Test match.

CarlottaVance

Interesting thread:

A perspective on corruption in Ukraine. I am an academic economist, a former Ukrainian minister, and a public figure, in that order. I did a land market reform after 20 years of sabotage by vested interest. That experience helped me understand 1/

https://twitter.com/mylovanov/status/1618725909552570373

IanB2

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

London
Lab 59%
Con 13%
LD 12%
Ref 11%
Grn 5%

Rest of South
Lab 51%
Con 28%
LD 10%
Grn 5%
Ref 4%

Midlands and Wales
Lab 48%
Con 25%
LD 10%
Ref 7%
Grn 5%
PC 2%

North
Lab 55%
Con 18%
Ref 10%
Grn 6%
LD 4%

Scotland
SNP 57%
Lab 21%
Con 13%
LD 4%
Grn 2%
Ref 2%

(PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,270; 24 January)

Are we really supposed to believe RefUK are on 11% in London and 10% in the North?

If you have started questioning opinion poll subsamples, we really must be approaching the end of times...

Luckyguy1983

Sandpit said:

Mortimer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good morning

I expect Starmer to become PM at GE24 and frankly Sunak is caught in the aftermath of the Johnson/Truss disaster, as is the party with its fractious groups, and changing Sunak would seal the conservatives fate for years to come as he is their best chance of mitigating the losses

Zahawi is causing serous damage and his determination to remain in office is disgraceful

I said a few days ago that for the first time I can recall there are more conservative mps I would celebrate losing their seats than labour

However, the problems the UK face are so complex and the solutions so unpalatable I have little confidence Starmer and labour have the answers either

Sunak -held hostage by treasury orthodoxy- is actively making things worse.

Time to replace him.

Not quite sure that 4 PMs inside 12 months is good, but yes Sunak needs to turn the Treasury and the No.10 operation upside-down and inside-out.

Replace it with a much smaller group of advisors, charged with maximising economic growth for the lowest cost. Talk to businesses and key public service managers on a daily basis.

We saw a great example on here yesterday, that there’s a shortage of radiographers, leading to expensive MRI machines being unstaffed and patients blocking beds waiting for scans. Get a worldwide campaign running to recruit radiographers, and have the NHS and Home Office work together to fast track visas and recognition of qualifications.

This is the sort of stuff the UK did really well during the pandemic, identifying roadblocks and moving them out of the way as quickly as possible. That same attitude needs to be bought back to government.

I dont think that will happen under Sunak. He'd have to move Hunt on at the very least to get any attention. He's already at 'needs another re-set' mode; his five point one was a flop. Best to give the new leader as much time as possible before the GE.

Stuartinromford

Sandpit said:

Mortimer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good morning

I expect Starmer to become PM at GE24 and frankly Sunak is caught in the aftermath of the Johnson/Truss disaster, as is the party with its fractious groups, and changing Sunak would seal the conservatives fate for years to come as he is their best chance of mitigating the losses

Zahawi is causing serous damage and his determination to remain in office is disgraceful

I said a few days ago that for the first time I can recall there are more conservative mps I would celebrate losing their seats than labour

However, the problems the UK face are so complex and the solutions so unpalatable I have little confidence Starmer and labour have the answers either

Sunak -held hostage by treasury orthodoxy- is actively making things worse.

Time to replace him.

Not quite sure that 4 PMs inside 12 months is good, but yes Sunak needs to turn the Treasury and the No.10 operation upside-down and inside-out.

Replace it with a much smaller group of advisors, charged with maximising economic growth for the lowest cost. Talk to businesses and key public service managers on a daily basis.

We saw a great example on here yesterday, that there’s a shortage of radiographers, leading to expensive MRI machines being unstaffed and patients blocking beds waiting for scans. Get a worldwide campaign running to recruit radiographers, and have the NHS and Home Office work together to fast track visas and recognition of qualifications.

This is the sort of stuff the UK did really well during the pandemic, identifying roadblocks and moving them out of the way as quickly as possible. That same attitude needs to be bought back to government.

But we know what the roadblocks are.

They're about planning delays, building stuff on the cheap so we end up building twice, and (it has to be said) making it more bureaucratic for businesses to export to our near neighbours.

As that anonymous Belgian politician sort of said in 2008, We damn well know what to do. Just not how to get elected after
doing it.

And a lot of the Conservative vote right now would rather keep things as they are than make their children and grandchildren richer.

CarlottaVance

given how much she claims not to remember, Sturgeon's memoir could be on the short side

https://twitter.com/GrahamGGrant/status/1618591126675652610

JosiasJessop

"In the last few moments, Jeremy Hunt has reiterated that HS2 will go all the way to London Euston station as planned."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-64413975

RochdalePioneers

Stuartinromford said:

Sandpit said:

Mortimer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good morning

I expect Starmer to become PM at GE24 and frankly Sunak is caught in the aftermath of the Johnson/Truss disaster, as is the party with its fractious groups, and changing Sunak would seal the conservatives fate for years to come as he is their best chance of mitigating the losses

Zahawi is causing serous damage and his determination to remain in office is disgraceful

I said a few days ago that for the first time I can recall there are more conservative mps I would celebrate losing their seats than labour

However, the problems the UK face are so complex and the solutions so unpalatable I have little confidence Starmer and labour have the answers either

Sunak -held hostage by treasury orthodoxy- is actively making things worse.

Time to replace him.

Not quite sure that 4 PMs inside 12 months is good, but yes Sunak needs to turn the Treasury and the No.10 operation upside-down and inside-out.

Replace it with a much smaller group of advisors, charged with maximising economic growth for the lowest cost. Talk to businesses and key public service managers on a daily basis.

We saw a great example on here yesterday, that there’s a shortage of radiographers, leading to expensive MRI machines being unstaffed and patients blocking beds waiting for scans. Get a worldwide campaign running to recruit radiographers, and have the NHS and Home Office work together to fast track visas and recognition of qualifications.

This is the sort of stuff the UK did really well during the pandemic, identifying roadblocks and moving them out of the way as quickly as possible. That same attitude needs to be bought back to government.

But we know what the roadblocks are.

They're about planning delays, building stuff on the cheap so we end up building twice, and (it has to be said) making it more bureaucratic for businesses to export to our near neighbours.

As that anonymous Belgian politician sort of said in 2008, We damn well know what to do. Just not how to get elected after
doing it.

And a lot of the Conservative vote right now would rather keep things as they are than make their children and grandchildren richer.

The Tories have weaponised ignorance and stupidity. Lets use the specific example of radiographers. We have decided that training medics is a bad investment, and so have a long-term shortage which we got around by bringing in migrants.

Then the spiv class decided they weren't making enough money from other people's labour, so campaigned to leave the UK to cut their pay and conditions further. So a concerted campaign ensure people are ignorant about things like staffing in the NHS, and stupid enough to support "just don't let migrants in" policies.

Some of our structural problems are so basic that they absolutely could be fixed simply. But we don't because there is now a Tory client vote who have to be kept stupid enough to be manipulated into voting against their own best interests.

No, it isn't that "the EU" is their best interest or a specific solution to this or most other issues. It was totemic, and fear of the stupid vote now means that we apparently both need to staff the NHS but can't possibly allow people to come and do so. Because of Von Der Layen apparently.

Chris

"I’m sure there are many within the parliamentary party who realise what a mistake was made with his appointment"

Blimey. For once I have sympathy with the Tories.

The context of Sunak's selection was that everyone with a sane neuron in their brain was crying out "Anything but this!"

Pulpstar

Just incredible that Zahawi is still in post. As the HMRC boss said if you work with them then there's generally no fine.

Leon

Nigelb said:

Leon said:

Tax bill. UGH

The nation thanks you.
For not trying a Zahawi.

Mega rich fucks that dodge tax royally piss me off. Because I don’t. I minimise it legally - claim all my exes - but don’t go to any great lengths. No offshore bank accounts. I never even bothered with becoming a PLC when that would have helped

I live here. I pay my whack. Tho as the whack goes up I increasingly think hmmmmm

malcolmg

Chelyabinsk said:

AlistairM said:

One shouldn't forget that Ukraine will shortly be getting quite about 50 Bradley fighting vehicles. Whilst not a MBT they can go as fast as an Abrams and have tank killing ability. They are fitted out with a missile launcher that can take out most tanks at 4km range, although they have to be stationary to fire it.

"In summation, what you have before you is a troop transport that can't carry troops, a reconnaissance vehicle that's too conspicuous to do reconnaissance, and a quasi-tank that has less armor than a snow-blower, but carries enough ammo to take out half of D.C."

PMSL, your village is looking for it's idiot.

JosiasJessop

Leon said:

Nigelb said:

Leon said:

Tax bill. UGH

The nation thanks you.
For not trying a Zahawi.

Mega rich fucks that dodge tax royally piss me off. Because I don’t. I minimise it legally - claim all my exes - but don’t go to any great lengths. No offshore bank accounts. I never even bothered with becoming a PLC when that would have helped

I live here. I pay my whack. Tho as the whack goes up I increasingly think hmmmmm

"claim all my exes"

And you have a lot of ex's to claim for

Driver

Alphabet_Soup said:

LostPassword said:

JosiasJessop said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

I’ve got some ideas for good spending.

FTTP for all - incredibly cheap and quick to do and would last decades.

Getting as close to 100% landmass mobile coverage as possible by removing restrictions on planning, so masts can be built anywhere they are needed.

Is that actually much of a problem nowadays, either in coverage or planning?

We have poor Vodafone coverage in our house, but other networks are fine. When I'm out and about, I get good signal most of the time (for calls mostly, not 5G).

The biggest problem I've experienced with mobile coverage is not geographical coverage in rural areas, but capacity in urban areas. The worst experience I've had is on public transport in London when several trains worth of people are all trying to connect through a few masts around Clapham Junction, or Peckham Rye, or wherever.

Try putting on a bet at Lord's during a Test match.

If there are particular problems around sites like that then the site owner should be working with the networks to improve it. Probably more tricky at Lord's where the demand is restricted to a few days a year, but the major train stations it would be like it 250 days a year, give or take.

Chelyabinsk

malcolmg said:

Chelyabinsk said:

AlistairM said:

One shouldn't forget that Ukraine will shortly be getting quite about 50 Bradley fighting vehicles. Whilst not a MBT they can go as fast as an Abrams and have tank killing ability. They are fitted out with a missile launcher that can take out most tanks at 4km range, although they have to be stationary to fire it.

"In summation, what you have before you is a troop transport that can't carry troops, a reconnaissance vehicle that's too conspicuous to do reconnaissance, and a quasi-tank that has less armor than a snow-blower, but carries enough ammo to take out half of D.C."

PMSL, your village is looking for it's idiot.

"its".

RochdalePioneers

Pulpstar said:

Just incredible that Zahawi is still in post. As the HMRC boss said if you work with them then there's generally no fine.

I can understand policy differences between parties. But we still have Tories claiming theirs is the party of morality and propriety. The just choice. And this is driving the slide towards Labour winning a bigger and bigger majority.

Nigelb

AlistairM said:

One shouldn't forget that Ukraine will shortly be getting quite about 50 Bradley fighting vehicles. Whilst not a MBT they can go as fast as an Abrams and have tank killing ability. They are fitted out with a missile launcher that can take out most tanks at 4km range, although they have to be stationary to fire it.

Well they're certainly more potent than the various BMPs, though probably not as good as the CV90s the Norwegians are sending.
By the time this is done, the Ukrainian army will have more knowledge of fighting vehicles than anyone, ever.

WhisperingOracle

If Boris is back this year, I think Tory support will stay in the low twenties. They'll avoid election all they can, but I don't think that will change the result.

squareroot2

Pulpstar said:

Just incredible that Zahawi is still in post. As the HMRC boss said if you work with them then there's generally no fine.

Of course its just possible that they fined him ....because.... he was a prominent Tory...

Northern_Al

JosiasJessop said:

"In the last few moments, Jeremy Hunt has reiterated that HS2 will go all the way to London Euston station as planned."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-64413975

Clever. They're going to move London Euston station to Hounslow. Promise kept.

OnlyLivingBoy

Leon said:

Nigelb said:

Leon said:

Tax bill. UGH

The nation thanks you.
For not trying a Zahawi.

Mega rich fucks that dodge tax royally piss me off. Because I don’t. I minimise it legally - claim all my exes - but don’t go to any great lengths. No offshore bank accounts. I never even bothered with becoming a PLC when that would have helped

I live here. I pay my whack. Tho as the whack goes up I increasingly think hmmmmm

I have never sought to do anything to minimise my taxes, I pay shed loads of tax, and I don't mind doing it. It's the shoddiness of the public services I get in return that bothers me. Schools that can't afford to pay their staff. Infrastructure that is left half-built. Doctors I can't get an appointment for. I'd pay more to have public services that work. I get it why people want to pay less and get a minimalist state, although that's not my preference. Right now we seem stuck in the worst of all worlds - high taxes that still aren't high enough for anything to actually work.

noneoftheabove

squareroot2 said:

Pulpstar said:

Just incredible that Zahawi is still in post. As the HMRC boss said if you work with them then there's generally no fine.

Of course its just possible that they fined him ....because.... he was a prominent Tory...

I know that really should be an offence in the current circumstances but as far as I am aware they have yet to introduce such legislation. Knowing their constant disregard for parliament is the another of the many laws set by ministerial decree instead?

IanB2

squareroot2 said:

Pulpstar said:

Just incredible that Zahawi is still in post. As the HMRC boss said if you work with them then there's generally no fine.

Of course its just possible that they fined him ....because.... he was a prominent Tory...

You're suggesting the place is stuffed full of lefties who, in between attending CND protests and the like during their youth, aspired to careers as tax inspectors?

Nigelb

Leon said:

Nigelb said:

Leon said:

Tax bill. UGH

The nation thanks you.
For not trying a Zahawi.

Mega rich fucks that dodge tax royally piss me off. Because I don’t. I minimise it legally - claim all my exes...

No.
Must resist.

And, genuinely, good for you.

Sandpit

Driver said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

LostPassword said:

JosiasJessop said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

I’ve got some ideas for good spending.

FTTP for all - incredibly cheap and quick to do and would last decades.

Getting as close to 100% landmass mobile coverage as possible by removing restrictions on planning, so masts can be built anywhere they are needed.

Is that actually much of a problem nowadays, either in coverage or planning?

We have poor Vodafone coverage in our house, but other networks are fine. When I'm out and about, I get good signal most of the time (for calls mostly, not 5G).

The biggest problem I've experienced with mobile coverage is not geographical coverage in rural areas, but capacity in urban areas. The worst experience I've had is on public transport in London when several trains worth of people are all trying to connect through a few masts around Clapham Junction, or Peckham Rye, or wherever.

Try putting on a bet at Lord's during a Test match.

If there are particular problems around sites like that then the site owner should be working with the networks to improve it. Probably more tricky at Lord's where the demand is restricted to a few days a year, but the major train stations it would be like it 250 days a year, give or take.

That’s what they do with tower blocks, they usually put network repeaters into the building when it’s constructed, and cable them in the basement to the mobile providers’ networks.

For one-off events, such as sports match, you can get phone masts on trailers to the venue.

slade

jamesdoyle said:

Very poor result for the Cons in last night's by-election in Rotherham: went from touching distance of winning a seat in 2021 to fifth of six. LibDems on the opposite trajectory: suggests some former Con voters still can't quite bring themselves to vote Labour, and will look for a reasonable alternative. Maybe the Blue Wall won't hold up any better than the Red Wall for Rishi.

Actual figures: Lab 36.1% (+4.6), LD 21.6 (+14.7), Ind 18.5, Yorkshire Party 15.2 (+3.5), Con 5.8 (-18.2), Green 2.9.

noneoftheabove

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

Nigelb said:

Leon said:

Tax bill. UGH

The nation thanks you.
For not trying a Zahawi.

Mega rich fucks that dodge tax royally piss me off. Because I don’t. I minimise it legally - claim all my exes - but don’t go to any great lengths. No offshore bank accounts. I never even bothered with becoming a PLC when that would have helped

I live here. I pay my whack. Tho as the whack goes up I increasingly think hmmmmm

I have never sought to do anything to minimise my taxes, I pay shed loads of tax, and I don't mind doing it. It's the shoddiness of the public services I get in return that bothers me. Schools that can't afford to pay their staff. Infrastructure that is left half-built. Doctors I can't get an appointment for. I'd pay more to have public services that work. I get it why people want to pay less and get a minimalist state, although that's not my preference. Right now we seem stuck in the worst of all worlds - high taxes that still aren't high enough for anything to actually work.

No pension or ISA then?

WhisperingOracle

StuartDickson said:

London
Lab 59%
Con 13%
LD 12%
Ref 11%
Grn 5%

Rest of South
Lab 51%
Con 28%
LD 10%
Grn 5%
Ref 4%

Midlands and Wales
Lab 48%
Con 25%
LD 10%
Ref 7%
Grn 5%
PC 2%

North
Lab 55%
Con 18%
Ref 10%
Grn 6%
LD 4%

Scotland
SNP 57%
Lab 21%
Con 13%
LD 4%
Grn 2%
Ref 2%

(PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,270; 24 January)

Awful results for the Tories in the north. I more and more think they should split, and join the advocates for PR, with future coalitions in mind . It would benefit them more than Labour in the near future.

Undemocratic Starmer trying to take us back into the single market ! Give us our vote on a new voting system to stop this travesty !

Chris

squareroot2 said:

Pulpstar said:

Just incredible that Zahawi is still in post. As the HMRC boss said if you work with them then there's generally no fine.

Of course its just possible that they fined him ....because.... he was a prominent Tory...

This is satire, surely?

IanB2

noneoftheabove said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

Nigelb said:

Leon said:

Tax bill. UGH

The nation thanks you.
For not trying a Zahawi.

Mega rich fucks that dodge tax royally piss me off. Because I don’t. I minimise it legally - claim all my exes - but don’t go to any great lengths. No offshore bank accounts. I never even bothered with becoming a PLC when that would have helped

I live here. I pay my whack. Tho as the whack goes up I increasingly think hmmmmm

I have never sought to do anything to minimise my taxes, I pay shed loads of tax, and I don't mind doing it. It's the shoddiness of the public services I get in return that bothers me. Schools that can't afford to pay their staff. Infrastructure that is left half-built. Doctors I can't get an appointment for. I'd pay more to have public services that work. I get it why people want to pay less and get a minimalist state, although that's not my preference. Right now we seem stuck in the worst of all worlds - high taxes that still aren't high enough for anything to actually work.

No pension or ISA then?

I wonder how much lost tax ISAs have cost the government?

Pulpstar

squareroot2 said:

Pulpstar said:

Just incredible that Zahawi is still in post. As the HMRC boss said if you work with them then there's generally no fine.

Of course its just possible that they fined him ....because.... he was a prominent Tory...

You're one of the most well named posters on the entire website because you know plenty about the square root...