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Latest political betting odds from Smarkets – politicalbetting.com
Latest political betting odds from Smarkets – politicalbetting.com
I’ve got a hospital appointment today so there will be no more updates from me until I return. This is my main focus at the moment.
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It requires the same effort that went into housebuilding post-WWII - and an understanding from government, that housing is the nation’s highest priority.
The first person who accepts an invitation from the monarch to form a government after the election will be considered the winner. This will apply even if they immediately lose a vote of confidence in the House of Commons.
The incumbent PM will be settled as the winner if they successfully form a new government (which may not require the specific invitation above).
If no new PM is appointed before a further general election, this market will be void.
Other contracts may be added.
The first person who accepts an invitation from the monarch to form a government after the election will be considered the winner. This will apply even if they immediately lose a vote of confidence in the House of Commons.
The incumbent PM will be settled as the winner if they successfully form a new government (which may not require the specific invitation above).
If no new PM is appointed before a further general election, this market will be void.
Other contracts may be added.
https://twitter.com/dszeligowski/status/1614293389780090880
I think laying DeSantis is the best bet at the moment. He’s still not formally a runner, and could well be keeping his nose clean for 2028 - when Trump definitely won’t be involved.
The fundamental problem is population ageing, which has been exacerbated by policy failures. Between 1980 and 2009 the old age dependency ratio (numbers aged 65+ to those aged 15-64) was stable, moving from 0.23 to 0.24. Since then it has increased to 0.31. In 10 years it is expected to be 0.37 and by the end of this century 0.6 - so in terms of the ageing shock this has only just started. (UN data). Ageing has a number of effects that are contributing to the current crisis:
* direct costs on working age people via taxation
* A shortage of workers that increases costs to business and encourages/requires immigration
* immigration plus old people remaining in family homes creates a housing shortage
* higher taxes and housing costs encourages emigration of mobile and higher skilled workers, increasing tax burden on those remaining.
Policy failures include regulatory impediments to housing supply, self defeating austerity policies that shrank the economy, and failure to raise the pension age sufficiently and to improve public health. Plus Brexit that has added to business costs and reduced tax revenue (also made it harder for retirees to move overseas). Ultimately, we have to realise that ageing poses an existential threat to our way of life that requires a complete rethink of our lifestyles, the welfare state, everything. We simply cannot afford to support increasing numbers of elderly people living in poor health - younger workers won't take it. This isn't an attack on old people - a group I love and respect and who I will be a member of sooner than I'd like to think. It's just arithmetic.
The look, feel, insulation, and comfort levels of the extension are brilliant. I wish we'd knocked the old part of the house down and done that in SIPS too now.
https://www.sips.org
Virus exposure and neurodegenerative disease risk across national biobanks
https://www.cell.com/neuron/fulltext/S0896-6273(22)01147-3
With recent findings connecting the Epstein-Barr virus to an increased risk of multiple sclerosis and growing concerns regarding the neurological impact of the coronavirus pandemic, we examined potential links between viral exposures and neurodegenerative disease risk. Using time series data from FinnGen for discovery and cross-sectional data from the UK Biobank for replication, we identified 45 viral exposures significantly associated with increased risk of neurodegenerative disease and replicated 22 of these associations. The largest effect association was between viral encephalitis exposure and Alzheimer’s disease. Influenza with pneumonia was significantly associated with five of the six neurodegenerative diseases studied. We also replicated the Epstein-Barr/multiple sclerosis association. Some of these exposures were associated with an increased risk of neurodegeneration up to 15 years after infection. As vaccines are currently available for some of the associated viruses, vaccination may be a way to reduce some risk of neurodegenerative disease.
The problem is the lack of places you are allowed to build.
Suppose Poland sends Leopards to Ukraine without German permission, Germany says “we aren’t going to sell you anymore weapons and we will take you to the European court (or whatever forum is relevant).
Poland says “no problem, we will pay a fine and never buy a German kit again.”
Germany loses an arms customer who is going to be upping their spending on arms and also is damaged in PR terms.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1617834435025698816
Reuters reports the statement announcing his removal on Tuesday gave no reason for the decision but said it had been “according to his own wish”.
Earlier, the presidential aide Kyrylo Tymoshenko and deputy defence minister Vyacheslav Shapovalov both resigned, as Ukraine is gripped in a corruption scandal within its government.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jan/24/russia-ukraine-war-live-zelenskiy-flags-more-changes-in-corruption-purge-german-defence-group-offers-to-send-tanks-if-needed
It isn't hard to imagine wall panels that come with their section of the ring main, with the wiring in proper ducts, with connectors to connect to the next section of the ring.
Plumbing would be more interesting.
Mortgage reform is the answer, which requires government to set standards they’re prepared to either underwrite themselves, or re-insure with the market.
So if Poland did this with the Leopards, the Ukrainians might end up with tanks that they have difficulty getting spare parts for, and the manufacturer won't help fix.
With the M1s in Iraq and Egypt, the Americans have a massive presence in the supply chain/maintenance operation. Not sure about Australia...
Except there wasn't, unless I have misread it, any attempt to answer as opposed to illustrate the problem.
Do I just infer that Cyclefree's answer is that some male natures just are that way and it is unstoppable?
May I call for a further article from Cyclefree on exactly this question. This subject matters.
Sounds like it could be F-16s heading to Ukraine. Game-changer if that’s the case.
I think that makes Labour most seats a much better bet than Keir Starmer PM after the next election. Inflation means it's probably not worth backing Labour most seats and Sunak PM after the election, but I think that if the Tories have most seats they will almost certainly form a new government, and force Labour & SNP to vote them down. I also don't expect Labour/SNP to rush into a formal coalition agreement which would be necessary to force Sunak to give way earlier.
A F16C/D Block 52 - that would be a game changer.
You can get mortgages through specialist lenders, for pre-fabs - the issue is quality, guarantees and resale value.
*When they were still mostly council owned, the council had a plan to replace them with traditional build units, which was fiercely opposed by residents.
I find it pretty nauseating that the Germans are more than happy to build up a huge defence industry, make billions out of selling weaponry to pretty well anybody, and then get sniffy about allowing their customers to forward on their expensively-purchased kit to a fellow democracy that is being systematically devastated by a brutal dictator.
What’s needed, is sufficient numbers to provide air cover for the Western tanks. We know that the enemy can’t field more than a handful of their latest-gen fighter aircraft in opposition, so they’ll mostly be fighting the Cold-War-era Soviet birds - and even then, likely not many of them.
I'm surprised more of you aren't racing to make the obvious Marathon puns
What seems beyond doubt at this point is that the German coalition government is deeply split on the issue (as is public opinion), with Scholz pretty obviously opposed to tanks being supplied.
By far the strongest opposition in opinion polls is on the far right.
In any event Germany has probably lost a lot of future arms business whatever it does at this point. As has Switzerland.
Yes, the issues are quality and life-expectancy of the structures. There need to be defined standards, that are underwritable either by the reinsurance market or by government, that let mainstream mortgage providers lend against them.
For example, the Ukrainians have been supplied with the HARM anti-radiation missile (homes in on radars). Because of compatibility issues with the Ukrainian MIGs, they are being used in a very basic mode. Fired from a late model F16, the plane can talk to the missile properly and that makes it much more effective.
Pre-fab : Yes, the main barrier to widespread mortgage acceptance is an established standard and quality. You can get a mortgage to build and buy a Huff house, for example. A manufacturer/builder guarantee bond (that isn't reliant on the existence of the manufacturer or builder) is probably the way to go.
Though given that is also a preferred tool of autocrats for cementing their power (see eg China, and, laughably, Putin's Russia), it will be a while before the motivation is for sure.
Zelensky has said he'll step down once the war is over, so I'm hopeful it's the former rather than the latter.
This is all starting to feel like 2003 again, except that this time we are risking nuclear annihilation. I'm guessing that those who are keen to go in against Russia with guns blazing are the same people who were beating the drum for the invasion of Iraq.
Yes, Russia needs to be pushed out of Ukraine, but not at the cost of sparking a nuclear disaster.
https://big-village.com/public-opinion-polling/
It basically argues, in terms, that Washington and Moscow should agree to partition Ukraine as the war cannot be won.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hoist_with_his_own_petard
I do think that diplomacy with China, in part related to the nuclear issue, is one reason for a more gradual pace of providing support to Ukraine, but I don't think that this means we can't now provide Western tanks.
….Der Schlüssel für die Lösung des Konfliktes liegt nicht in Kiew, er liegt auch nicht in Berlin, Brüssel oder Paris, er liegt in Washington und Moskau. Es ist doch lächerlich zu sagen, die Ukraine müsse das entscheiden...
Fair enough.
But what about the other side of the equation? What are the risks of a Russian victory, or a stalemate that Russia can sell as a substantive victory? I'd argue that it's clear Russia wants further western expansion, and a 'loss' for the west will embolden them and weaken the coalition against them.
Basically: we'd be fighting the same war in five or ten years, either in western Ukraine, or Poland, or Romania, or the Baltics, with a weakened NATO and a Russia that will have probably learnt lessons.
I'd strongly argue that would be much worse.
claims that the older ones aren’t capable of firing modern missiles (like HARM anti-radiation missiles, JDAMs, Harpoons etc etc), so if you want to send those to Ukraine then it’s F16C/D Block 52 or nothing. (The HARM missiles Ukraine are currently using are being fired in a pre-set mode that doesn’t integrate with the fire control in the aircraft.)
That said, these aircraft started being produced in 1991, so the electronics presumably date from the late 80s. Is any of that stuff really that secret any more?
Apparently there’s a “block 50/52 plus” which sounds like it’s full of stuff the US might not want to send anywhere near the Russian military, but presumably there are a few hundred of the originals still flying around?
Man sollte die Menschen in der Region, also im Donbass und auf der Krim, einfach fragen, zu wem sie gehören wollen. Man müsste die territoriale Integrität der Ukraine wiederherstellen, mit bestimmten westlichen Garantien.
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1617826030877802496?s=20&t=Y0lJ8R4c4A0l1A1RZFszSA
In any other country, the F16 would have a new number by now. As with the Russians and the decedents of the Su-27.
One novel spin came from an SNP councillor in Dundee at the weekend. She compared, in all seriousness, the actions of the UK government in blocking the Gender Recognition bill with those of the Nazis at Auschwitz. Both, apparently, involved persecuting minorities for their sexual orientation. Every day is a learning day in the City of DIscovery.
It could be argued that something similar, albeit more indirectly, happened in the West as the pandemic hit. When the PM says to the Cabinet “Does anyone know anyone, who knows anyone, who can get their hands on PPE, money no object?”, then it’s no surprise that companies pop up, that manage to insert themselves into the supply chain, run by people who know people who know ministers.
As far as Ukraine is concerned, well done to Zelensky for sidelining those caught with their hand in the cookie jar, but this should be a wake-up call to international supporters, that we need to get the war ended quickly before Ukraine itself fractures.
Atten-shun!
His article argues that the war cannot be won; indeed that Russia will likely prevail in the Donbass even if we supply Leopard tanks.
...Dann stellt sich erneut die Frage, was mit den Lieferungen der Panzer überhaupt passieren soll. Um die Krim oder den Donbass zu übernehmen, reichen die Marder und Leoparden nicht aus. In der Ostkukraine, im Raum Bachmut, sind die Russen eindeutig auf dem Vormarsch. Sie werden wahrscheinlich den Donbass in Kürze vollständig erobert haben. Man muss sich nur allein die numerische Überlegenheit der Russen gegenüber der Ukraine vor Augen führen. Russland kann bis zu zwei Millionen Reservisten mobil machen. Da kann der Westen 100 Marder und 100 Leoparden hinschicken, sie ändern an der militärischen Gesamtlage nichts. ..
And that - as I posted upthread - Moscow and Washington must agree to partition the country,
The Servant of the People show that propelled the Ukrainian Les Dennis to the Presidency was recorded and broadcast with 99% Russian dialogue.
Throws post into the mix and goes back to work...
Given where we are, we should draw an arbitrary squiggly line and give the Eastern portion to Russia.
The only argument is where the squiggly line should be placed to minimize future conflict.
It won't be possible to eliminate all future conflict, but a grossly unfair squiggly line will guarantee another War. A solution returning Crimea to Ukraine 100 per cent guarantees another War.
So, it is a non-linear optimization with penalty problem.
There are some who venerate Khrushchev & think he solved the non-linear optimization problem correctly.
It was a delight and a privilege to live there and I can only think that post-war planners must have made a mistake in their calculations when making such generous housing available to oiks like us.
Would that the inhabitants of Grenfell Towers and the like have been so lucky. Even if not incinerated, the residents of such blocks would have envied us our delightful little detached bungalows.
Which I think is a reasonable characterisation, even if some might argue it's just an opinion.
But the 'gradually wearing down' argument has one massive moral flaw: it's not our blood that's flowing. You're asking the Ukrainian people - and the Russian mobniks - to lose tens, or hundreds, of thousands of lives on a vague idea that it keeps you safer.
This war needs to be ended ASAP, and in a way that disuades Russia, and other potential aggressor nations, from trying this sort of madness again.
There is nothing special about any squiggly line, and it can change with time.
The squiggly line in N. Ireland was drawn (by the British) to solve an optimization problem in 1921: What is the maximum amount of territory that could be safely claimed to ensure a Unionist majority?
I expect the squiggly line in N Ireland will change in the future. Ditto any squiggly line between Country X and Country Y.
No squiggly line is inviolate.