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Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks.
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9TwuR0jCavk
SNP 43%
Labour 24%
Conservatives 14%
UKIP 7%
Liberal Democrats 6%
I am surprised it is as few as that, but Leicester is popular with minorities as so relaxed about multiculturalism.
It still isnt too hard to fix a visa for a non EU Dr, but not so easy as ten years ago, when permenant residance was automatic after four years.
Before anyone gets too hot under the collar, it was New Labour in 2006 that changed the visa rules and made it difficult for Commenwealth Drs to get work visas.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
True, the labour drop is far more pronounced in the run up to last May's local elections but they still finished lower at the end of 2013 than the start. The tories get their softer kipper tory votes back faster after the May locals which mitigates their drop. Meanwhile the kippers do indeed suffer a drop after the May local elections but they still finish off higher at the end of 2013 than the start. If they repeat that for 2014 and the EU elections then that's still a bigger kipper VI than right now going into the 2015 election.
Which would unquestionably cause panic among eurosceptic tories and the Cameroons, though to be fair it will have done so long before then as we can clearly see.
Someone's dropped the marmalade.
2010 1.7% <<< Lowest growth in G7
2011 1.1%
2012 0.3%
2013 1.9% <<< Highest H2 growth in G7
All you need to know really, ar.
or @tnewtondunn
People aren't interested in international comparisons but whether they're getting richer themselves.
And on that this government has failed despite its predictions.
Now to be fair that doesn't surprise I've always predicted a fall in living standards as a consequence of the need to rebalance a deeply unbalanced economy.
But what Osborne has achieved is a fall in living standards while making the economy even more unbalanced.
Did he also mention the percentage growth of manufacturing over 2013 as a whole and if so why not ?
Surely he would want to emphasise the 'march of the makers'.
Remember though that Cameron 'feels their frustration' ;-)
SLOW...SLOW...QUICK...QUICK
There still appears to be an 'inspired' Osbrowne master strategy for every occasion. I wonder if there was a simple typo at work from the tory HQ spin machine and it was really that Cameron 'feeds their frustration'. ;-)
Thereafter, under Osborne, it has fluctuated but basically flat-lined with signs of improvement in 2013.
And before any lefty claims that the post-recession fall wasn't Labour's fault ("it all started in America" etc), we should note that, in the five years before the recession, Brown managed to 'grow' the economy at 3% per annum at the same time as restricting growth in RHDI to an annual rate of 1%.
City to win tomorrow then...
It is scary watching Leicester play like this, after all the dross and disappointment of the last decade. Scary, but nice!
Mike Smithson@MSmithsonPB4 mins
Last night YouGov had 32/33/9/14. Hopefully we'll get the latest poll in the next 20 minutes
In other words the Cost of Living Crisis started when Brown departed from the Tories policies?
The economy should be in pretty good shape when Balls gets it back to play with in 2015.
"Consumer price inflation is expected to reach 2.7 per cent by the end of the year before returning to target in the medium term. And let me take this opportunity to confirm that the inflation target remains at 2 per cent as measured by the Consumer Prices Index. The unemployment rate is forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility to peak this year at 8.1 per cent and then fall for each of the next four years, to reach 6.1 per cent in 2015."
In reality CPI was at 3.7% in December 2010, peaked at 5.2% in September 2011, was at least a full percentage point higher than target up until April 2012 and only fell to 2.0% in December 2013.
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/datasets-and-tables/data-selector.html?cdid=D7G7&dataset=mm23&table-id=1.2
And even on unemployment the targets were missed as the rate peaked at 8.4% in Sep/Oct 2011 before falling to its present 7.1%. Whether it continues its present downward trend to reach the target of 6.1% in 2015 we will have to wait and see.
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/datasets-and-tables/data-selector.html?cdid=MGSX&dataset=lms&table-id=01
"Gloating Osborne faces backlash over mediocre economic growth figures"
twitter.com/hendopolis/status/428246937293570048/photo/1
http://www.talkcarswell.com/home/the-left-has-gone-loopy/2758
Tonight:
1. Gunners drop points.
2. Everton lose main striker - Spurs play them in circa 10 days.
3. Newcastle losing Cabaye and Remy sent off, be suspended 3 games - Spurs play them in that 3rd game.
4. Hull have goalie sent off late - Spurs play them this weekend.
5. I've tipped Man C to win at the Lane tomorrow.
But it does seem that all that banging on about 50p tax hasn't seen the sort of temporary jump you normally see from a populist policy getting a good airing. Make of that what you will.
Better get Mark Senior on to the internals quick.
I think what we all have to remember is that with MOE variation, Labour leads of 2-9% aren't that different from that the 5-7% range.
No chance that the true lead is really only 2% - but two YouGovs in a row plus the ComRes provide real encouragement that the true lead may have ticked down from 6% to 4% or 5%.
I remember the media reports on the soaring cost of bread, milk and energy in 2007-2008.
Very low paid workers stuff which together with Brown's tax increase on them was behind the huge Conservative victories in the local and Crewe elections and the enormous Conservative opinion poll leads at that time.
But the Cameroons really didn't understand why things were going so well politically for them just as they didn't understand how dangerous the economic fundamentals were.
Echo chambers around the Notting Hill dinner parties and a reluctance / lack of interest in leaving their comfort zones.
Just as the Brown fan club recited "it all started in America" back then the Osborne fan club recite "it was all the fault of the recession in the Eurozone" now.
Plus ca change etc
1) It takes a while (up to a fortnight) for changes to filter to VI
2) Balls with his toxic ratings, was the last person Lab should have used to announce the 50p rate plan, Ed M would have been a better choice.
Luckily it'll be sunny for the next few days, and in the 60s by Friday.
"Hmm I've changed my VI because Lib/Lab/Con/UKIP announed they were going to give away motherhood and apple pie a fortnight ago"
Why does it take so long ?
As the kipper vote gets higher it starts taking an ever increasing chunk out of labour.
A pattern which shows no sign of stopping any time soon.
Mike Smithson@MSmithsonPB8 mins
Most worrying feature of current polling for LAB is that the number of 2010 LD switchers seems to be moving downwards
Hasn't he announced that 50% will now only be temporary ?
I can do a better job than Balls in my spare time.
And I did a better job than Osborne when he was Shadow Chancellor.
Its pi55 easy - all you have to do is look up the Chancellor's budget forecasts and then contrast them with the ONS stats.
Why are establishment politicians so bloody crap ?
Look at the weekly populus polling on the most noticed stories in the week.
It takes a few weeks to filter through.
29 winning bets this month.
Just saying.
Test matches (Especially between 2 decent teams) tend to offer great value if you go in at the right point...
Labour at the bottom of its YG range two days in a row. Tories towards the top of theirs. It was like this in early autumn too if I remember correctly.
Is it this one?
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges10 mins
Tomorrow's Yougov has Labour's lead at just 3 points. I owe @JohnRentoul 50p...
Nick Bamford@nickbamford3 hrs
I sense Ed Balls would be a happier man if we were still in his recession
If Clegg's ostrich faction think this poll, or the results and polls where they are getting beaten by the kippers (in scotland!), indicate they are getting any credit then they will be in for quite the shock come the May EU and local elections.
It was 4/1 earlier, now it's 5/2 for Q1
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/novelty-betting/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=1159292
The Broadbent LSE speech addresses this more than any other text I have read.
It is not so much the failure of Blair and Brown to follow Tory spending plans but the gap between consumer goods and services inflation and enterprise output inflation with its associated falls in productivity which constrained real incomes growth.
Some of this was policy driven (increase in indirect taxes, regulated price increase) but global commodity price inflation also played its part.
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/08/29/betting-on-when-will-a-conservative-lead-with-yougov-occur/
Even that 1% lead would have given lead about 320 seats.
A powerful poll from YouGov in @TheSunNewspaper tomorrow that proves folk may like a policy, but it only does more damage to its owner.
Ok not saying this is correct but it is my attempt to explain it.
People are herd animals at heart (at least most of them are). It takes a week for people to work our the herd response of their social group by cross referencing down the pub and around the water filter then another week of checking they are now holding the correct opinion....just a theory mind you
Can't do that without admitting things like the gang culture cos the political class wanting to pretend things like the gang culture didn't exist is what led to excluding working class people from politics in the first place.
"Man fights off shark, stitches up own leg, goes to the pub."
I was so hoping that was a Jones.
I only ask because Mike has seen the 2010LD numbers (or so his tweet implies)
Fpt
Because as the one that wants the answer to a question, and no doubt to rebutt the answer, the emphasis is on you to find out rather than me to provide it. Especislly as I have had the argument many times before, when it was relevant and on topic, and don't want to have it again. As it is pointless
February 25th is the date you'll need the goalposts I reckon
My greatest memory was Gary McAllister's, 44 yard, better than sex, injury time winner at Goodison in the Cup Treble season.